20051457 Ver 1_USGS streamflow and ground-water conditions in NC through Monday August 22.msg_20110906

Strickland, Bev
From:
John C Weaver Dcweaver @usgs.gov]
Sent:
Tuesday, September 06, 2011 11:47 AM
To:
Linwood Peele
Cc:
Ashley. E.Hatchell @usace. army. miI; brian.cullen @noaa.gov; Brian. Hai nes @ncdenr.gov;
david.lane @ncdenr.gov; debra.owen @ncdenr.gov; eric.seymour @noaa.gov; gagalleh @duke -
energy.com; garry_grabow @ncsu.edu; george.mathews @noaa.gov; harold.m.brady @ncdenr.gov;
jamie.kritzer @ncdenr.gov; jcweaver @usgs.gov; Jeff.Orrock @noaa.gov; jim.prevette @ncdenr.gov;
jucilene.hoffmann @ncdenr.gov; Lara.Pagano @noaa.gov; linwood.peele @ncdenr.gov;
Michael .A.Young @saw02.usace. army. miI; michael.moneypenny @noaa.gov; mike.orbon @ncdenr.gov;
neelufa.sarwar @ncdenr.gov; Patricia. Tanner @noaa.gov; Peter. Corrigan @noaa.gov;
richard.neuherz @noaa.gov; rwall @ncem.org; ryan_boyles @ncsu.edu; sarah.young @ncdenr.gov;
todd.hamill @noaa.gov; Tom.Fransen @ncdenr.gov; tom.reeder @ncdenr.gov; tony_dorn @nass.usda.gov;
Torey_Lawrence @nass.usda.gov; Vernon. Cox @ncagr.gov; Wayne.Munden @ncdenr.gov;
woody. yonts @ncdenr.gov; Brian Fuchs; Allison.Wash @va.usda.gov; Kathleen Carroll; Darin Figurskey;
Glenn Carrin; Yonts, Woody
Subject:
USGS streamflow and ground -water conditions in NC through Monday, August 22
NC Drought advisory group,
After the previous week in which rainfall coverage (from Hurricane Irene) was more focused on the eastern third of North
Carolina, rainfall coverage the past day or so has been focused on the western third of the state, primarily in the
mountains region. What has evolved thus far is a pattern in which the central part of the state has not received any of the
high rainfall totals associated with the tropical events that have affected the state the past few weeks. Based on 14 -day
rainfall totals, there is a narrow region near a line running from Anson County north towards Caswell County where rainfall
totals are still 25 to 75 percent of normal for the period (http://water.weather.gov/precip
conditions across North Carolina echo the rainfall patterns noted above with 3 distinct areas noticeable on the
current real -time maps (http: / /waterwatch.usgs.gov/ new / ?m= real &r =nc &w= real %2Cmap). Streamflow conditions in the
mountains and western Piedmont are currently above normal in response to the rainfall coverage associated with the
remnants of Tropical Storm Lee. Streamflow conditions across much of the Coastal Plain continue to be in the normal
and above - normal ranges following the passage of Hurricane Irene across this region a little more than a week ago. In
the line running from Anson to Caswell Counties, the streamflow conditions are a mix of below - normal and normal ranges
with some "less than 10th percentile" conditions still in effect in the eastern Piedmont.
As of September 04 (Sunday), streamflow conditions indicate 62 percent of sites across North Carolina have percentiles
for 7 -day average flows falling below the 25th percentile for the calendar date (see graph below). This percentage
suggests minor improvements in overall streamflow relative to 67 percent just a week ago.
As noted in previous weeks, water levels at the 10 Blue Ridge, Piedmont, and Sand Hills observations wells in the Climate
Response Network (http://ogwOl.er.usgs.gov/crn/StateMaps/NC.html) continue to be depicted in the normal range for 7
wells, below normal for 2 wells, and much below normal for the 1 well at Chapel Hill in Orange County
(http: // qroundwaterwatch .usgs.gov /AWLSites. asp ?S = 355522079043001 &ncd =crn). However, water levels have been
stable or increasing during the past few days in response to the rainfall coverage.
Water levels for the 6 wells in the Coastal Plain are currently depicted in the normal range for 4 wells and above normal
for 2 wells, all in response to the heavy rainfalls that occurred during the passage of Hurricane Irene on August 27. As a
point of example, the water levels increased by 6 feet at the well near Simpson in Pitt County
(http: // qroundwaterwatch .usgs.gov /AWLSites.asp ?S= 353219077153801 &ncd =crn). The magnitude in water level
increases following the tropical event were similar at the remaining five Coastal Plain wells with increases ranging from 2
to 6 feet.
Changes made for last week's USDM release included multiple category improvements in the areas affected by Hurricane
Irene, primarily the central and northern Coastal Plain. Expansion of the DO and D1 along with an introduction of D2 in
the southwest Piedmont also were made in parts of western North Carolina.

Draft 1 for this week's release was available as of Monday afternoon with no changes yet indicated for North Carolina.
Based on observations of the recent rainfall and hydrologic patterns, there are several issues that will need to be
considered in determining this week's recommendation for the NC depiction on the USDM:
(1) Rainfall from Tropical Storm Lee's remnants has only occurred during the past day and is still forecasted for parts of
North Carolina. Streamflows in mountains and western Piedmont are currently running above normal at many of the
USGS streamgages.
(2) Streamflow and groundwater conditions in much of the Coastal Plain continue to reflect the effects of the rainfall
coverage from Hurricane Irene on August 27.
(3) The narrow band of streamflow conditions in normal and below - normal ranges across parts of the eastern Piedmont.
Water levels continue to be much below normal at the Chapel Hills well in Orange County
(http: // groundwaterwatch .usgs.gov /AWLSites.asp ?S= 355522079043001 &ncd =crn) .
(4) FYI ... the NC group also needs to be aware of comment received by the USDM authors, which has been forwarded to
the NC group for response as appropriate:
1 religiously view the drought monitor web site and have always felt it accurately reflected the areas here in NC that I live and
travel. However, this recent update as of 30 August is laughable! I live just north of Charlotte in Concord, (28025) and according
to the monitor, we are "normal ". It is so dry here you can't drive a nail in the ground. The ground has cracks from the drought. 1
can't tell you when we had our last measurable rainfall. There have been storms that have formed to the east of us but none in
the dough nut we live in.
1 also own a home at Oak Island, NC zip 28465. We have averaged one or 2 storms each week for the past 3 weeks with each one
producing 1.5 inches or more of rain. Last weekend, before this recent update, Hurricane Irene dumped 7.5 inches of rain on us
yet according to the monitor we are in a "moderate drought ".
Looks like you have each end of the state I live in completely backwards. I'm sure your data is probably gathered by radar
estimates but in each of these areas it is absolutely wrong!
Thank you,
Tony Miller
"Miiierbeachcian" < miiierbeachcian @windstream.net>
091011201109:28 PM
Putting together the above observations, the only area that is probably a candidate for change would be improvement in
parts of western North Carolina. But given the on -going nature of this event, the use of "status quo" would probably be
appropriate until the final rainfall effects are determined. I would also suggest "status quo" for both the eastern Piedmont
and Coastal Plain in this week's release.
Comments and opinions welcome...
Thanks.
JCWeaver
****************************** * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * **
J. Curtis Weaver, Hydrologist, PE
USGS North Carolina Water Science Center
3916 Sunset Ridge Road
Raleigh, NC 27607
Phone: [phone] H Fax: [phone]
Mobile: [phone]

E -mail address -- jcweaver @usgs.gov
Internet address -- http: / /nc.water.usgs.gov/
****************************** * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * **
-- USDM draft (if available) --
As of Monday afternoon, draft 1 for this week's version was available with no changes yet indicated for North Carolina.
Mark Svoboda, climatologist with the National Drought Mitigation Center in Lincoln, Nebraska, is the USDM author for
this week's release. In the email accompanying draft 1, he made no specific comments concerning the Carolinas region.
USDM archive (you can select North Carolina from the drop -down box near the top, a quick way to see the last two USDM
releases):
htto:H drouaht.unl.edu /dm /archive.html
-- Observed precipitation --
Sources of precipitation totals are available from the following:
(1) USGS rainfall totals (sorted by county) for the last 7 days at

http : / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /current ?tvpe = precip &group kev= county cd
(2) State Climate Office of North Carolina at http : / /www.nc - climate.ncsu.edu /mpe departure/
(3) NOAA NWS's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service at http://water.weather.gov/preci
shown below pulled from the NOAA NWS's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service at
http: / /water.weather.gov /precip/
North Carolina: Current 7 —Day Observed Precipitation
Valid at 9/5/2011 1200 UTC— Created 9/5/11 23:55 UTC
-- Streamflow --
Current conditions are depicted as real -time, 7 -day, 14 -day, and 28 -day flows available in the WaterWatch series of maps
at:
http://waterwatch.usgs.gov/classic/?m=real&r=nc&w=real%2Cmap
Current conditions...
4

Tuesday, Septenber 06, 2011 08 :30ET
WIM
MUSIGS
Previous conditions... two weeks ago
Tuesday, August 23, 2011 09 :30ET
When viewing the USGS WaterWatch streamflow information, you can hover your cursor over a site and a pop -up box
appears with various pieces of information, including the percentile for the current streamflow AND the current percentage
Explanation - Percentile classes
.::
.... ,
<1,0 i
76-90
- 0 <
7
Ai dol- ranked l
rychbepu 4
,
When viewing the USGS WaterWatch streamflow information, you can hover your cursor over a site and a pop -up box
appears with various pieces of information, including the percentile for the current streamflow AND the current percentage

of mean and median for the calendar date.
Highlighting current flows (September 06 morning) at some selected gaging stations (obtained from
http : / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /current / ?type =flow ):
Site number
Site name (and County)
Flow Aug 30
Current
flow
(% of)
Median Sep 06
02053200
Potecasi Creek near Union (Hertford) --
5,120
cfs
760
cfs
69000
11 cfs
02106500
Black River near Tomahawk (Sampson) --
1,150
cfs
281
cfs
78%
360 cfs
02085500
Flat River at Bahama (Durham) --
1.1
cfs
2.8
cfs
180
16 cfs
02096960
Haw River near Bynum (Chatham) --
75
cfs
105
cfs
360
292 cfs
02115360
Yadkin River at Enon (Yadkin) --
572
cfs
1,800
cfs
1280
1,409 cfs
02152100
First Broad River near Casar (Cleveland) --
12
cfs
88
cfs
196%
45 cfs
03451500
French Broad River at Asheville (Buncombe) --
497
cfs
2,530
cfs
2320
1,090 cfs
03550000
Valley River at Tomotla (Cherokee) --
30
cfs
307
cfs
399%
77 cfs
Focusing on the 7-day average flows...
Visit the WaterWatch pages at http: / /waterwatch.usgs.gov /classic / ?r =nc to get the most recent data for sites of interest.
Durations plots for selected individual USGS stations can be accessed at http: / /nc.water.usgs.gov /drought /duration.html
The OVERALL 7 -day average flows by HUC map
(http:Hwaterwatch.usgs.gov /classic / ?m= pa07d &r= nc &w =pa07d nwc %2Cmap) are depicted in the image below:
Monday, September 05, 2011
I, SGS
6

To help provide more detail by major basin, the BELOW NORMAL 7 -day average flows by HUC map
(http: / /waterwatch.usgs.gov /classic /index.php ?map type =drvw &state =nc) are depicted in the image below:
Monday, September 05, 2011
As of September 04 (Sunday), the graph of 7 -day flow percentiles shown below indicates 62 percent of sites across
North Carolina have percentiles for 7 -day average flows falling below the 25th percentile for the calendar date. And 41
percent of sites across North Carolina are shown as having 7 -day average flows below the 10th percentile or reaching
new minimum for calendar date.
Compared to August 28 (Sunday), the current values indicate mixed changes in overall streamflow conditions during
course of the past week, considering 67% of sites across the state were below the 25th percentile and 35% of sites were
below 10th percentile and /or reaching new minimum for the calendar date.
Below is a graph developed from the 7 -day average flow summary table available at:
http: / /waterwater.usgs.gov/ classic / ?m= pa07d &r= nc &w= paO7d %2Ctable

i
i
If i
September
Less than 25th percentile Percentage of sites in North Carolina with 7 -day t
Less than 10th percentile indicated percentile range or lowe
New ruin forthe day
October ilovember December January February March2011 April2011 .4;
2010 2010 2010 2011 2011
Date
Another measure of the streamflow conditions is available from maps of median percentiles for 7 -day average flows for
the previous 7 -, 14- 30 -, 60 -, and 90 -day periods updated through September 05 (Monday). These maps are intended to
provide some kind of "long- term" index of the streamflow conditions (not available through the USGS WaterWatch pages)
that is mapped according to the classification scheme for streamflow used by the U.S. Drought Monitor. Map images (via
the above URL) showing the median percentiles for 7 -day average flows for previous 7 and 30 days are shown below.
http: / /nc. water. usgs .gov /drought/dm- streamflow.html
8

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am
FOI
Previous 30 days
Monday, September 05, 2011
0
,ry J:
D
Explanation
Unregulated
Regulated
No - No Drought ( >30 percentile)
DO - Abnormally Dry (21 to 30 percentile)
0
❑
D1 - Moderate Drought (11 to 20 percentile)
D2 - Severe Drought (6 to 10 percentile)
D3 - Extreme Drought (3 to 5 percentile)
IF
D4 - Exceptional Drought (0 to 2 percentile)
a
IM
n/d - Not determined
0
❑
0
a)
LI
N
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The following ArcMap screenshot shows the change in the median percentiles of 7 -day average flows for 7 -day period
from last week (with last week's U.S. Drought Monitor in the background). In other words, at a given site, take last
week's median percentile and compare it to this week's median percentile. Sites in red indicate a decrease in the median
percentile from last week to this week (suggesting a decline in streamflow). Sites in blue indicate an increase in the
median percentile from last week to this week (suggesting an improvement decline in streamflow). The size of the circles
indicates the general range in percentile increase or decrease (note legend to left of the map).
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-- Ground Water --
10

Please visit the Climate Response Network page at
http: / /groundwaterwatch. usqs. gov /StateMapsNet.asp ?ncd= crn &sc =37 (map shown below) for more information on
ground -water conditions at selected USGS observation wells in North Carolina.
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Shown below are the hydrographs at four selected wells across North Carolina... real -time page for USGS ground water
data in NC is available at http: / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /current ?tvpe =qw
(MOUNTAINS) NC -144 at Blantyre in Transylvania County
(http: / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv / ?site no= 351808082374302 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw)
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---- Provisional Data Subject to Revision ----
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