20051457 Ver 1_USGS streamflow and ground-water conditions in NC through Monday August 08.msg_20110809

Strickland, Bev
From:
John C Weaver Dcweaver @usgs.gov]
Sent:
Tuesday, August 09, 2011 11:42 AM
To:
woody.yonts @ncdenr.gov
Cc:
Ashley. E.Hatchell @usace. army. miI; brian.cullen @noaa.gov; Brian. Hai nes @ncdenr.gov;
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energy.com; garry_grabow @ncsu.edu; george.mathews @noaa.gov; harold.m.brady @ncdenr.gov;
jamie.kritzer @ncdenr.gov; jcweaver @usgs.gov; Jeff.Orrock @noaa.gov; jim.prevette @ncdenr.gov;
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Michael .A.Young @saw02.usace. army. miI; michael.moneypenny @noaa.gov; mike.orbon @ncdenr.gov;
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woody. yonts @ncdenr.gov; Brian Fuchs; Allison.Wash @va.usda.gov; Kathleen Carroll; Darin Figurskey;
Glenn Carrin
Subject:
USGS streamflow and ground -water conditions in NC through Monday, August 08
NC Drought advisory group,
Another week of rainfall coverage across parts of North Carolina was observed with totals of 0.5+ inch, particularly along a
line from Cleveland County through Mecklenburg County, then northeast through Wake County towards Halifax County
(http:/ /water.weather.gov /precip /). Rainfall totals of 0.5+ inch also occurred along a line from New Hanover County up
through Green and Pitt Counties, then northeast towards the northern Outer Banks. Within these areas, some rainfall
totals exceeded 2 inches, including parts of Mecklenburg County where 6+ inches rainfall resulted in severe flash flooding
causing property damage and at least 1 drowning fatality. Nevertheless, while rainfalls have been noted across parts of
the state, there are also areas not receiving rainfall, keeping the drought pattern in place.
As noted last week, streamflow conditions noted on the current real -time maps
(http:Hwaterwatch.usgs.gov/ new / ?m= real &r =nc &w= real %2Cmap) continue to be predominantly below normal across
much of the state with a small number of streamgages depicting normal, particularly in parts of the Neuse River basin,
Mecklenburg County, and parts of the French Broad River basin. Widespread streamflow conditions in the "less than 10th
percentile" range continue to be in effect in the Triad region. Some new areas that now bear monitoring are the upper
Yadkin, central and northern mountains region, as well as the extreme southwestern counties where streamflows in the
below - normal ranges have become more common.
As of August 07 (Sunday), streamflow conditions indicate 61 percent of sites across North Carolina have percentiles for
7 -day average flows falling below the 25th percentile for the calendar date (see graph below). This percentage indicates
very little change in overall streamflow relative to 59 percent just a week ago.
Water levels at the 10 Blue Ridge, Piedmont, and Sand Hills observations wells are depicted in the Climate Response
Network (http: / /ogw01.er.usgs.gov /crn /StateMaps /NC.html) as being in the normal range for 8 wells and much below
normal for 2 wells at Chapel Hill in Orange County
(http: // qroundwaterwatch .usgs.gov /AWLSites.asp ?S= 355522079043001 &ncd =crn) and near Marston in Scotland County
(http: // qroundwaterwatch .usgs.gov /AWLSites.asp ?S= 345812079313401 &ncd =crn).
Please be reminded that while water levels at 8 of the wells are depicted as being within the normal range, the levels at
four of these wells are in the lower ranges of normal close to the threshold between normal and below normal. The water
levels at the Piedmont research well in Rowan County
(http: // qroundwaterwatch .usgs.gov /AWLSites.asp ?S= 354057080362601 &ncd =crn) are an example of this pattern.
Water levels for the 6 wells in the Coastal Plain are depicted in the normal range for 1 well at Southport in Brunswick
County (http: // qroundwaterwatch .usgs.gov /AWLSites. asp ?S = 335631078003606 &ncd =crn), below normal for 1 well near
Grantham in Wayne County, and much below normal for the four easternmost wells.
Draft 1 for this week's release was available as of Monday afternoon with no changes yet indicated for North Carolina.

Changes made for last week's USDM release was some adjustments of the DO and D1 boundaries to reflect both
deterioration and improvement across the South Fork Catawba River basin and Mecklenburg County, respectively. Some
improvement was also made with a reduction of the D2 across parts of the northern Coastal Plain following some recent
rainfalls.
Some possible changes to this week's release may include:
(1) Per input from Pat Tanner (NWS Greenville - Spartanburg) ... possible introduction of DO across parts of the southern
mountains in response to declining streamflows and little rainfall over the past 30 days.
(2) Along the same lines as the southern mountains, conditions in the central and northern mountains as well as the parts
of upper Yadkin basin may be reaching a level such that DO could possibly be justified. Widespread below - normal
streamflows have become more common.
(3) With the rainfall from Mecklenburg County northeast through Wake County towards Halifax County in the northern
Coastal Plain, there may be some consideration for a 1- category improvement( ?) in parts of these areas currently shown
as DO and D1. The issue is that very high temperatures have been in effect, countering the benefits of the rainfall.
(4) Some deterioration in the Triad region? ... based on the widespread "less than 10th percentile" streamflow conditions
noted on the current maps.
While some areas are getting fairly decent rainfall totals, there are still a lot of other areas where rainfalls totals have been
less. And for those areas where high rainfall totals are considered decent, much of the rainfall seems to have fallen
quickly in a short amount of time.
Comments and opinions welcome...
Thanks.
JCWeaver
****************************** * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * **
J. Curtis Weaver, Hydrologist, PE
USGS North Carolina Water Science Center
3916 Sunset Ridge Road
Raleigh, NC 27607
Phone: [phone] H Fax: [phone]
Mobile: [phone]
E -mail address -- jcweaver @usgs.gov
Internet address -- http: / /nc.water.usgs.gov/
****************************** * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * **
-- USDM draft (if available) --
As of Monday evening, draft 1 for this week's version was available with no changes yet indicated for North Carolina.
Laura Edwards, Assistant Research Climatologist with the Desert Research Institute in Reno, Nevada, is the USDM
author for this week's release. In the email accompanying draft 1, she made no specific comments concerning the
Carolinas region.

USDM archive (you can select North Carolina from the drop -down box near the top, a quick way to see the last two USDM
releases):
http: / /drought.unl.edu /dm /archive.html
-- Observed precipitation --
Sources of precipitation totals are available from the following:
(1) USGS rainfall totals (sorted by county) for the last 7 days at
http : / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /current ?tvpe = precip &group kev= county cd
(2) State Climate Office of North Carolina at http : / /www.nc - climate.ncsu.edu /mpe departure/
(3) NOAA NWS's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service at http://water.weather.gov/preci
shown below pulled from the NOAA NWS's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service at
http: / /water.weather.gov /precip/

North Carolina: Current 7 —Day Observed Precipitation
Valid at 8/8/2011 1200 UTC— Created 8/1/11 23:56 UTC
-- Streamflow --
4: I � •* 1 111111111
Current conditions are depicted as real -time, 7 -day, 14 -day, and 28 -day flows available in the WaterWatch series of maps
at:
httD:Hwaterwatch. usas.aov/ classic / ?m= real &r =nc &w= real %2Cma
Current conditions...
4

Tuesday, August 09, 2011 07 :30ET
WIM
MUSIGS
Last week's conditions...
Tuesday, August 02, 2011 08 :30ET
When viewing the USGS WaterWatch streamflow information, you can hover your cursor over a site and a pop -up box
appears with various pieces of information, including the percentile for the current streamflow AND the current percentage
Explanation - Percentile classes
......,.
Lew X10
1 5 -7 r 6 -90 >
. �
dol- ranked Ajr
m ed u
w __I
,
4OW Ahpvp MUch abO �8l tral . rmal
�
When viewing the USGS WaterWatch streamflow information, you can hover your cursor over a site and a pop -up box
appears with various pieces of information, including the percentile for the current streamflow AND the current percentage

of mean and median for the calendar date.
Highlighting current flows (August 09 morning) at some selected gaging stations (obtained from
http : / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /current / ?type =flow ):
Site number Site name (and County) Flow Aug 02 Current flow
(% of)
Median Aug 09
02053200
Potecasi Creek near Union (Hertford) --
1.7
cfs
5.3
cfs
23%
23 cfs
02106500
Black River near Tomahawk (Sampson) --
50
cfs
231
cfs
83%
280 cfs
02085500
Flat River at Bahama (Durham) --
11
cfs
1.5
cfs
8%
20 cfs
02096960
Haw River near Bynum (Chatham) --
186
cfs
126
cfs
610
207 cfs
02115360
Yadkin River at Enon (Yadkin) --
1,360
cfs
875
cfs
670
1,300 cfs
02152100
First Broad River near Casar (Cleveland) --
22
cfs
21
cfs
450
47 cfs
03451500
French Broad River at Asheville (Buncombe) --
939
cfs
881
cfs
69%
1,270 cfs
03550000
Valley River at Tomotla (Cherokee) --
62
cfs
73
cfs
700
104 cfs
Focusing on the 7-day average flows...
Visit the WaterWatch pages at http: / /waterwatch.usgs.gov /classic / ?r =nc to get the most recent data for sites of interest.
Durations plots for selected individual USGS stations can be accessed at http: / /nc.water.usgs.gov /drought /duration.html
The OVERALL 7 -day average flows by HUC map
(http:Hwaterwatch.usgs.gov /classic / ?m= pa07d &r= nc &w =pa07d nwc %2Cmap) are depicted in the image below:
Monday, Rugust 08, 2011
I, SGS
6

To help provide more detail by major basin, the BELOW NORMAL 7 -day average flows by HUC map
(http: / /waterwatch.usgs.gov /classic /index.php ?map type =drvw &state =nc) are depicted in the image below:
Monday, Rugust 08, 2011
As of August 07 (Sunday), the graph of 7 -day flow percentiles shown below indicates 61 percent of sites across North
Carolina have percentiles for 7 -day average flows falling below the 25th percentile for the calendar date. And 25 percent
of sites across North Carolina are shown as having 7 -day average flows below the 10th percentile or reaching new
minimum for calendar date.
Compared to July 31 (Sunday), the current values indicate very little change in overall streamflow conditions during
course of the past week, considering 61 % of sites across the state were below the 25th percentile and 27% of sites were
below 10th percentile and /or reaching new minimum for the calendar date.
Below is a graph developed from the 7 -day average flow summary table available at:
http: / /waterwater.usgs.gov/ classic / ?m= pa07d &r= nc &w= paO7d %2Ctable

i
i
ii
Less than 25th percentile Percentage of sites in North Carolina with 7 -day t
Less than 10th percentile indicated percentile range or lowe
New min forthe day
August, September October ilovember December t
2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2011 2011 2011
Date
Another measure of the streamflow conditions is available from maps of median percentiles for 7 -day average flows for
the previous 7 -, 14- 30 -, 60 -, and 90 -day periods updated through August 01 (Monday). These maps are intended to
provide some kind of "long- term" index of the streamflow conditions (not available through the USGS WaterWatch pages)
that is mapped according to the classification scheme for streamflow used by the U.S. Drought Monitor. Map images (via
the above URL) showing the median percentiles for 7 -day average flows for previous 7 and 30 days are shown below.
http: / /nc. water. usgs .gov /drought/dm- streamflow.html
8

Explanation
No - No Drought ( >30 percentile)
DO - Abnormally Dry (21 to 30 percentile)
D1 - Moderate Drought (11 to 20 percentile)
D2 - Severe Drought (6 to 10 percentile)
D3 - Extreme Drought (3 to 5 percentile)
D4 - Exceptional Drought (0 to 2 percentile)
n/d - Not determined
Unregulated Regulated
6
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The following ArcMap screenshot shows the change in the median percentiles of 7 -day average flows for 7 -day period
from last week (with last week's U.S. Drought Monitor in the background). In other words, at a given site, take last
week's median percentile and compare it to this week's median percentile. Sites in red indicate a decrease in the median
percentile from last week to this week (suggesting a decline in streamflow). Sites in blue indicate an increase in the
median percentile from last week to this week (suggesting an improvement decline in streamflow). The size of the circles
indicates the general range in percentile increase or decrease (note legend to left of the map).
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25 to 50 percentile decrease
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Drawing — ________
-- Ground Water --
Please visit the Climate Response Network page at
http: / /groundwaterwatch. usqs. gov /StateMapsNet.asp ?ncd= crn &sc =37 (map shown below) for more information on
10
10 to 25 percentile increase
5 to 10 percentile increase
0 to 5 percentile increase
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0 to 5 percentile decrease
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10 to 25 percentile decrease
25 to 50 percentile decrease
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Drawing — ________
-- Ground Water --
Please visit the Climate Response Network page at
http: / /groundwaterwatch. usqs. gov /StateMapsNet.asp ?ncd= crn &sc =37 (map shown below) for more information on
10

ground -water conditions at selected USGS observation wells in North Carolina.
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Low hrluch Below Bel¢w Normal l ove hrluGl l cve� High Ranked
Shown below are the hydrographs at four selected wells across North Carolina... real -time page for USGS ground water
data in NC is available at http: / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /current ?tvpe =qw
(MOUNTAINS) NC -144 at Blantyre in Transylvania County
(http: / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv / ?site no= 351808082374302 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw)
11

12
USES
351 080823 '430
TR-065
(NC-144) AT
BLANTYRE, NC
(REGOLITH)
-
2117.60
29.60
CU
Q.
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2117.40
29.80
-
2117.20
0
30.00
z
-
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CU
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-
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m
CL
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2116.40
30.80
Jul
Jul
Jul
Aug
16
23
30
06
2011
2011
2011
2011
---- Provisional Data Subject to Revision ----
12

(WESTERN PIEDMONT) NC -193, Piedmont RS near Barber in Rowan County
(http: / /waterdata .usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv / ?dd cd =01 72019 00003 &format =imq default &site no= 354057080362601 &set to
qscale v =0 &begin date = 20070319)
13
USES
351 0808237430
TR -065 (SIC -144) AT
BLANTYRE, HC
(RE OLITH
a
27.E
2129.9
m
Q.
a,
28.9
2119.9
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29 +0
2118.9
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t
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Sep Now
Jan Mar
May Jul
2919 2919
2911 2911
2911 2911
— Daily nean depth to
water level Period of provisional
data
Period of approved data
(WESTERN PIEDMONT) NC -193, Piedmont RS near Barber in Rowan County
(http: / /waterdata .usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv / ?dd cd =01 72019 00003 &format =imq default &site no= 354057080362601 &set to
qscale v =0 &begin date = 20070319)
13

14
SGS 354057080362601
RO-149 (NC-193)
PIEDMONT RS 1 NR
BARBER
(REGOLITI
7.88
670.20
a
4J
CU
CU
Q.
8.00
670.80
4J
8.20
669.80
m
8.40
669.60
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8.68
669.40
8.80
669.20
CU
CL
9.00
Jul
Jul
Jul
flug
16
23
30
06
2011
2011
2011
2011
---- Provisional Data Subject to Revision
----
14

(EASTERN PIEDMONT) NC -126 at Chapel Hill in Orange County
( http:/ /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv/ ?site no= 355522079043001 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw)
SGS 354057080362601 Rte -149 (SIC -193)
PIEDMONT RS 1 NR BARBER (RE OLIT
a
6.00
672.00
1
0
HILL, H
(RE t LITH)
45.00
CU
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4J
6.50
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466.40
671.00
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9.00
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669.00
L
Sep Now Jan
Mar May Jul
O
2010 2010 2011
2011 2011 2011
— Daily nean depth to water level
Period of provisional data
Period of approved data
(EASTERN PIEDMONT) NC -126 at Chapel Hill in Orange County
( http:/ /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv/ ?site no= 355522079043001 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw)
15
USGS
355522079 143001
OR -069 (NC-126) AT CHAPEL
HILL, H
(RE t LITH)
45.00
466.50
45.10
466.40
45.20
466.30
z
�y
45.30
466.20
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+4
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466.10
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45.50
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45.60
465.90
+4
CL
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d
L
L
45.70
465.80
0
Jul
Jul Jul
Aug
16
23 30
06
2011
2011 2011
2011
- - -- Provisional Data Subject to Revision - - --
15

(COASTAL PLAIN) NC -160 near Simpson in Pitt County
( http:/ /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv/ ?site no= 353219077153801 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw)
16
USGS 3555 079043001 OR -069 (NC -126) AT CHAPEL HILL, H (RE t LITH)
a
41.0
m
470.0
S
Q
42•$
0
469.0
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43.9
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Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul
2010 2019 2911 2011 2911 2011
— Daily nean depth to water level Period of provisional data
Period of approved data
(COASTAL PLAIN) NC -160 near Simpson in Pitt County
( http:/ /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv/ ?site no= 353219077153801 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw)
16

17
USES 353219077153801 PI-532 (NC-160) NR IMP ON, NC (SURFICIAL,)
6.00
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50.00
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6.50
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L
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48.50
8.00
L
CU
4J
4
m
CL
48.00
L
8.50
0
Jul Jul Jul Aug
16 23 30 06
2011 2011 2011 2011
---- Provisional Data Subject to Revision ----
17

18
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Sep Now Jan Mar
May Jul
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2918 2919 2911 2911
2911 2911
0
— Daily nean depth to water level
Period of approved data
Period of provisional data
— Lowest recorded water level prior to MY2911 (8 +97 ft Oct 23,24, 2997)
18