HomeMy WebLinkAbout20051457 Ver 1_USGS streamflow and ground-water conditions in NC through Monday August 01.msg_20110802Strickland, Bev
From:
John C Weaver Dcweaver @usgs.gov]
Sent:
Tuesday, August 02, 2011 11:25 AM
To:
Yonts, Woody
Cc:
Ashley. E.Hatchell @usace. army. miI; brian.cullen @noaa.gov; Brian. Hai nes @ncdenr.gov;
david.lane @ncdenr.gov; debra.owen @ncdenr.gov; eric.seymour @noaa.gov; gagalleh @duke -
energy.com; garry_grabow @ncsu.edu; george.mathews @noaa.gov; harold.m.brady @ncdenr.gov;
jamie.kritzer @ncdenr.gov; jcweaver @usgs.gov; Jeff.Orrock @noaa.gov; jim.prevette @ncdenr.gov;
jucilene.hoffmann @ncdenr.gov; Lara.Pagano @noaa.gov; linwood.peele @ncdenr.gov;
Michael .A.Young @saw02.usace. army. miI; michael.moneypenny @noaa.gov; mike.orbon @ncdenr.gov;
neelufa.sarwar @ncdenr.gov; Patricia. Tanner @noaa.gov; Peter. Corrigan @noaa.gov;
richard.neuherz @noaa.gov; rwall @ncem.org; ryan_boyles @ncsu.edu; sarah.young @ncdenr.gov;
todd.hamill @noaa.gov; Tom.Fransen @ncdenr.gov; tom.reeder @ncdenr.gov; tony_dorn @nass.usda.gov;
Torey_Lawrence @nass.usda.gov; Vernon. Cox @ncagr.gov; Wayne.Munden @ncdenr.gov;
woody. yonts @ncdenr.gov; Brian Fuchs; Allison.Wash @va.usda.gov; Kathleen Carroll; Darin Figurskey;
Glenn Carrin
Subject:
USGS streamflow and ground -water conditions in NC through Monday, August 01
NC Drought advisory group,
Rainfall coverage across a good part of North Carolina was relatively decent considering the patterns that have been
effect during the past month. Much of the Piedmont and Coastal Plain regions received 0.5+ inch rainfall during the past
week (http:/ /water.weather.gov /precip /) with fairly widespread totals of 2+ inches across parts of the southern Piedmont,
Sand Hills, and northern Coastal Plain. As with the previous week, the big weather story this past week has been the
consecutive days of 100+ degree high temperatures across the state.
Streamflow conditions noted on the current real -time maps
(http:Hwaterwatch.usgs.gov/ new / ?m= real &r =nc &w= real %2Cmap) continue to be predominantly below normal across the
state with a small number of streamgages depicting normal, particularly in parts of the Neuse River basin, Mecklenburg
County, and parts of the French Broad River basin. Widespread streamflow conditions in the "less than 10th percentile"
range are noticeable in the Triad region and in the South Fork Catawba River basin.
As of July 31 (Sunday), streamflow conditions indicate 59 percent of sites across North Carolina have percentiles for 7-
day average flows falling below the 25th percentile for the calendar date (see graph below). This percentage indicates
very minor improvement in overall streamflow relative to 70 percent just a week ago.
The recent patterns being observed for the groundwater wells in the Climate Response Network
(http: / /ogw01.er.usgs.gov /crn /StateMaps /NC.html) have been fairly consistent on a weekly basis. Similar to last week,
water levels at the 10 Blue Ridge and Piedmont observations wells are depicted in the normal range for 8 wells and much
below normal for 2 wells at Chapel Hill in Orange County
(http: // qroundwaterwatch .usgs.gov /AWLSites.asp ?S= 355522079043001 &ncd =crn) and near Marston in Scotland County
(http: // qroundwaterwatch .usgs.gov /AWLSites.asp ?S= 345812079313401 &ncd =crn).
Water levels for the 6 wells in the Coastal Plain are depicted in the normal range for 1 well at Southport in Brunswick
County (http: // qroundwaterwatch .usgs.gov /AWLSites. asp ?S = 335631078003606 &ncd =crn), below normal for 2 wells, and
much below normal for 3 wells. With the transition into August, the background statistics used for determining the
percentiles have shifted. What this means is the record lowest water levels for the month of August are generally lower
than those for July. This affects the percentile depictions shown on the real -time maps.
Draft 1 for this week's release was available as of Monday afternoon with no changes yet indicated for North Carolina.
The only changes made for last week's USDM release was the removal of D3 across parts of Brunswick and New
Hanover Counties following heavy rainfalls in those areas the previous week. A very slight adjustment to the D1 edge in
the Sand Hills region was made to accommodate some D1 changes in South Carolina.
The occurrence of rainfall may justify some improvements( ?) in parts of the southeast Piedmont, Sand Hills, and northern
Coastal Plain. However, the presence of 100+ degree temperatures over the past week have likely offset the effects of
the rainfall benefits. Pat Tanner (NWS Greenville - Spartanburg) has requested that Mecklenburg County be removed from
drought in addition to some other changes for upstate South Carolina.
Comments and opinions welcome...
Thanks.
JCWeaver
****************************** * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * **
J. Curtis Weaver, Hydrologist, PE
USGS North Carolina Water Science Center
3916 Sunset Ridge Road
Raleigh, NC 27607
Phone: (919) 571 -4043 H Fax: (919) 571 -4041
Mobile: (919) 830 -6235
E -mail address -- jcweaver @usgs.gov
Internet address -- http: / /nc.water.usgs.gov/
****************************** * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * **
-- USDM draft (if available) --
As of Monday afternoon, draft 1 for this week's version was available with no changes yet indicated for North Carolina.
Brad Rippey, meteorologist with USDA in Washington, DC, is again the USDM author for this week's release. In the
email accompanying draft 1, he made no specific comments concerning the Carolinas region, but did make the following
comments about the Southeast region:
The Southeast does not appear to be a candidate for any major changes. Most areas received some rain, but
temperatures were on the high side. Crop and pasture conditions have rebounded a little bit over the past several weeks.
I did merge the Northeastern DO with the Southeastern DO, with a bridge along the WV -VA border region. I need to look
at the Southeast a little closer this morning to see if any fine - tuning is needed.
USDM archive (you can select North Carolina from the drop -down box near the top, a quick way to see the last two USDM
releases):
htto:H drouaht.unl.edu /dm /archive.html
-- Observed precipitation --
Sources of precipitation totals are available from the following:
(1) USGS rainfall totals (sorted by county) for the last 7 days at
http : / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /current ?tvpe = precip &group kev= county cd
(2) State Climate Office of North Carolina at http : / /www.nc - climate.ncsu.edu /mpe departure/
(3) NOAA NWS's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service at http: / /water.weather.gov /precip/
Image shown below pulled from the NOAA NWS's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service at
http : / /water.weather.gov /precip/
North Carolina: Current 7 —Day Observed Precipitation
Valid at 8/1/2011 1200 UTC— Created 8/1/11 23:56 UTC
-- Streamflow --
4: I � •
Current conditions are depicted as real -time, 7 -day, 14 -day, and 28 -day flows available in the WaterWatch series of maps
at:
http://waterwatch.usgs.gov/classic/?m=real&r=nc&w=real%2Cmap
Current conditions...
4
Tuesday, August 02, 2011 08 :30ET
WIM
MUSIGS
Last week's conditions...
Tuesday, July 26, 2011 08 :30ET
When viewing the USGS WaterWatch streamflow information, you can hover your cursor over a site and a pop -up box
appears with various pieces of information, including the percentile for the current streamflow AND the current percentage
Explanation - Percentile classes
......,.
Lew X10
1 5 -7 r 6 -90 >
. �
dol- ranked Ajr
m ed u
w __I
,
4OW Ahpvp MUch abO �8l tral . rmal
�
When viewing the USGS WaterWatch streamflow information, you can hover your cursor over a site and a pop -up box
appears with various pieces of information, including the percentile for the current streamflow AND the current percentage
of mean and median for the calendar date.
Highlighting current flows (August 02 morning) at some selected gaging stations (obtained from
http : / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /current / ?type =flow ):
Site number Site name (and County) Flow Jul 26 Current flow
(% of)
Median Aug 02
02053200
Potecasi Creek near Union (Hertford) --
0.02
cfs
1.7
cfs
14%
12 cfs
02106500
Black River near Tomahawk (Sampson) --
49
cfs
50
cfs
140
368 cfs
02085500
Flat River at Bahama (Durham) --
29
cfs
11
cfs
48%
23 cfs
02096960
Haw River near Bynum (Chatham) --
94
cfs
186
cfs
670
278 cfs
02115360
Yadkin River at Enon (Yadkin) --
2,120
cfs
1,360
cfs
910
1,500 cfs
02152100
First Broad River near Casar (Cleveland) --
29
cfs
22
cfs
44%
50 cfs
03451500
French Broad River at Asheville (Buncombe) --
1,730
cfs
939
cfs
71%
1,320 cfs
03550000
Valley River at Tomotla (Cherokee) --
137
cfs
62
cfs
580
106 cfs
Focusing on the 7-day average flows...
Visit the WaterWatch pages at http: / /waterwatch.usgs.gov /classic / ?r =nc to get the most recent data for sites of interest.
Durations plots for selected individual USGS stations can be accessed at http: / /nc.water.usgs.gov /drought /duration.html
The OVERALL 7 -day average flows by HUC map
(http:Hwaterwatch.usgs.gov /classic / ?m= pa07d &r= nc &w =pa07d nwc %2Cmap) are depicted in the image below:
Monday, Rugust 01, 2011
I, SGS
6
To help provide more detail by major basin, the BELOW NORMAL 7 -day average flows by HUC map
(http: / /waterwatch.usgs.gov /classic /index.php ?map type =drvw &state =nc) are depicted in the image below:
Monday, Rugust 01, 2011
As of July 31 (Sunday), the graph of 7 -day flow percentiles shown below indicates 59 percent of sites across North
Carolina have percentiles for 7 -day average flows falling below the 25th percentile for the calendar date. And 27 percent
of sites across North Carolina are shown as having 7 -day average flows below the 10th percentile or reaching new
minimum for calendar date.
Compared to July 24 (Sunday), the current values indicate very minor improvement in overall streamflow conditions
during course of the past week, considering 70% of sites across the state were below the 25th percentile and 31 % of sites
were below 10th percentile and /or reaching new minimum for the calendar date.
Below is a graph developed from the 7 -day average flow summary table available at:
http: / /waterwater.usgs.gov/ classic / ?m= pa07d &r= nc &w= paO7d %2Ctable
i
i
ii
Less than 25th percentile Percentage of sites in North Carolina with 7 -day t
Less than 10th percentile indicated percentile range or lowe
New min forthe day
August, September October ilovember December t
2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2011 2011 2011
Date
Another measure of the streamflow conditions is available from maps of median percentiles for 7 -day average flows for
the previous 7 -, 14- 30 -, 60 -, and 90 -day periods updated through August 01 (Monday). These maps are intended to
provide some kind of "long- term" index of the streamflow conditions (not available through the USGS WaterWatch pages)
that is mapped according to the classification scheme for streamflow used by the U.S. Drought Monitor. Map images (via
the above URL) showing the median percentiles for 7 -day average flows for previous 7 and 30 days are shown below.
http: / /nc. water. usgs .gov /drought/dm- streamflow.html
8
IM
3
Previous 7 days
Monday, August 01, 2011
L11<
0
Previous 30 days
Monday, August 01, 2011
■
da
Explanation
Unregulated
Regulated
No - No Drought ( >30 percentile)
DO - Abnormally Dry (21 to 30 percentile)
0
❑
D1 - Moderate Drought (11 to 20 percentile)
D2 - Severe Drought (6 to 10 percentile)
D3 - Extreme Drought (3 to 5 percentile)
IF
D4 - Exceptional Drought (0 to 2 percentile)
a
IM
n/d - Not determined
0
❑
0
The following ArcMap screenshot shows the change in the median percentiles of 7 -day average flows for 7 -day period
from last week (with last week's U.S. Drought Monitor in the background). In other words, at a given site, take last
week's median percentile and compare it to this week's median percentile. Sites in red indicate a decrease in the median
percentile from last week to this week (suggesting a decline in streamflow). Sites in blue indicate an increase in the
median percentile from last week to this week (suggesting an improvement decline in streamflow). The size of the circles
indicates the general range in percentile increase or decrease (note legend to left of the map).
File Edit View Bookmarks Insert Selection Tools Window Help
rc r + 1:3,680,375
OdA xv r" Editor
............................................................................................................................................. ..............................' x
Manual DM maps
Previous manual DM maps
USGS real -time sites (March 2006)
USGS discontinued streamflow sites (2005 wy)
NOAA_NC_observer_sites
climate_div arc
Roads
Streams and lakes
city _100k polygon
quad-24k polygon
HUCs
Basins (65 sites selected for drought assessmer
Basins > 30yrs total (89 sites as of Mar2006)
1 +1 2
outline_500k polygon
+1 ❑
physio_500k polygon
+1 ❑
Geology
+1 ❑
slope_30m_int
+1 ❑
landcover_30m
+1 ❑
hydrogeology AVG_WELL_V
+1 ❑
adjstate_100k polygon
-1 ❑
USDM GIS layers
+
2 usdm110726
+'
❑ usdm110719
+;
❑ usdm110712
n m,
Display I Source I Selection I I'D 0' �- I
Drawing ❑ A Arial1___ B I U A +
-- Ground Water --
Please visit the Climate Response Network page at
http: / /groundwaterwatch. usqs. gov /StateMapsNet.asp ?ncd= crn &sc =37 (map shown below) for more information on
10
ground -water conditions at selected USGS observation wells in North Carolina.
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Shown below are the hydrographs at four selected wells across North Carolina... real -time page for USGS ground water
data in NC is available at http: / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /current ?tvpe =qw
(MOUNTAINS) NC -144 at Blantyre in Transylvania County
(http: / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv / ?site no= 351808082374302 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw)
11
12
USES
351 080823 '430
TR-065
(NC-144) AT BLANTYRE, NC
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---- Provisional Data Subject to Revision ----
12
(WESTERN PIEDMONT) NC -193, Piedmont RS near Barber in Rowan County
(http: / /waterdata .usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv / ?dd cd =01 72019 00003 &format =imq default &site no= 354057080362601 &set to
qscale v =0 &begin date = 20070319)
13
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(http: / /waterdata .usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv / ?dd cd =01 72019 00003 &format =imq default &site no= 354057080362601 &set to
qscale v =0 &begin date = 20070319)
13
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Measured depth to water level
— Depth to water
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14
(EASTERN PIEDMONT) NC -126 at Chapel Hill in Orange County
( http:/ /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv/ ?site no= 355522079043001 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw)
SGS 354057080362601 Rte -149 (SIC -193) PIEDMONT
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Sep Now Jan Mar
May Jul
2010 2010 2011 2011
2011 2011
— Daily nean depth to water level Period
of provisional data
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Period of approved data
(EASTERN PIEDMONT) NC -126 at Chapel Hill in Orange County
( http:/ /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv/ ?site no= 355522079043001 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw)
15
USGS
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2011 2011
2011
- - -- Provisional Data Subject to
Revision - - --
15
(COASTAL PLAIN) NC -160 near Simpson in Pitt County
( http:/ /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv/ ?site no= 353219077153801 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw)
16
USGS 3555 079043001 OR -069 (NC -126) AT CHAPEL HILL, H (RE t LITH)
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— Daily nean depth to water level Period of provisional data
Period of approved data
(COASTAL PLAIN) NC -160 near Simpson in Pitt County
( http:/ /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv/ ?site no= 353219077153801 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw)
16
17
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---- Provisional Data Subject to Revision - - --
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17
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— Daily nean depth to water level
Period of approved data
Period of provisional data
— Lowest recorded water level prior to MY2911 (8 +97 ft Oct 23,24, 2997)
18