20051457 Ver 1_USGS streamflow and ground-water conditions in NC through Monday April 30 2012.msg_20120501

Strickland, Bev
From:
John C Weaver Dcweaver @usgs.gov]
Sent:
Tuesday, May 01, 2012 11:23 AM
To:
Jackson, Donna
Cc:
Ashley. E.Hatchell @usace. army. miI; brian.cullen @noaa.gov; Brian. Hai nes @ncdenr.gov;
david.lane @ncdenr.gov; debra.owen @ncdenr.gov; eric.seymour @noaa.gov; gagalleh @duke -
energy.com; garry_grabow @ncsu.edu; george.mathews @noaa.gov; harold.m.brady @ncdenr.gov;
jamie.kritzer @ncdenr.gov; jcweaver @usgs.gov; Jeff.Orrock @noaa.gov; jim.prevette @ncdenr.gov;
jucilene.hoffmann @ncdenr.gov; Lara.Pagano @noaa.gov; Linwood Peele;
Michael .A.Young @saw02.usace. army. miI; michael.moneypenny @noaa.gov; mike.orbon @ncdenr.gov;
neelufa.sarwar @ncdenr.gov; Patricia. Tanner @noaa.gov; Peter. Corrigan @noaa.gov;
richard.neuherz @noaa.gov; ryan_boyles @ncsu.edu; sarah.young @ncdenr.gov; todd.hamill @noaa.gov;
Tom.Fransen @ncdenr.gov; tom.reeder @ncdenr.gov; tony_dorn @nass.usda.gov;
Torey_Lawrence @nass.usda.gov; Vernon. Cox @ncagr.gov; Wayne.Munden @ncdenr.gov;
woody. yonts @ncdenr.gov; Brian Fuchs; Allison.Wash @va.usda.gov; Kathleen Carroll; Darin Figurskey;
Glenn Carrin; Yonts, Woody; wly
Subject:
USGS streamflow and ground -water conditions in NC through Monday, April 30, 2012
NC Drought advisory group,
Precipitation maps for the state (http:/ /water.weather.gov /precip/ or http : / /www.nc - climate.ncsu.edu /mpe departure)
indicate a rather unusual pattern for the past week whereby rainfall occurred primarily near the state's borders.
Widespread totals of 0.5+ inch are indicated along the state borders with exception of the southwest Piedmont from Polk
County to Mecklenburg County. Within this perimeter, very little to no rainfall occurred from the western Piedmont due
east into the central Coastal Plain.
Streamflow indicated on the current real -time streamflow map
(http:Hwaterwatch.usgs.gov/ new / ?m= real &r =nc &w= real %2Cmap) indicate mostly normal flows in the mountains region
with a mix of normal and below - normal conditions in the northern Coastal Plain. Widespread below - normal conditions are
visible on the map for much of the Piedmont and southern Coastal Plain regions. From the Broad River basin northeast
towards the upper Cape Fear and Neuse River basins, streamflow conditions are in the "less than 10th percentile" range
at numerous streamgages. Inspection of 28 -day average flows
(http: / /waterwatch. usgs .gov /index.php ?m= pa28d &r =nc &w =map) indicates a similar pattern where widespread below -
normal conditions continue to be in effect, particularly in the Piedmont and western Coastal Plain regions where
widespread "less than 10th percentile" streamflows are visible on the map.
As of April 22 (Sunday), streamflow conditions indicate 33 percent of sites across North Carolina have percentiles for 7-
day average flows falling below the 25th percentile for the calendar date (see graph below). This percentage suggests
improvements in overall streamflows relative to 52 percent just a week ago and is a reflection of the recent rainfalls.
However, this pattern has now reversed, and the percentage of sites with below - normal 7 -day average flows is
increasing.
Groundwater levels at the Blue Ridge, Piedmont, and Sand Hills observations wells shown on the Climate Response
Network in North Carolina (http: / /ogw01.er.usgs.gov /crn /StateMaps /NC.html) are depicted in the normal range for 5 wells,
below normal for 3 wells, and much below normal at the Chapel Hill well in Orange County and Marston well in Scotland
County. Water levels in the 6 Coastal Plain wells are depicted in the below - normal range for 2 wells, much below - normal
range for the well near Grantham in Wayne County, and record low for the month at the:
• Southport well in Brunswick County
(http: / /qroundwaterwatch. usgs.gov /AWLSites.asp ?S= 335631078003606 &ncd =crn)
• Comfort well in Jones County (http: // qroundwaterwatch .usgs.gov /AWLSites.asp ?S= 345809077301408 &ncd =crn)
• Hoke well in Washington County
(http: // qroundwaterwatch .usgs.gov /AWLSites.asp ?S= 354418076463601 &ncd =crn)
No changes were made to last week's USDM drought depictions for North Carolina due to effects of recent rainfalls. Draft

1 for this week's release was available as of Monday evening with no changes yet indicated for North Carolina. The
USDM author is awaiting input from the NC drought group.
Based on the hydrologic and precipitation patterns, there are several areas that may warrant some attention:
(1) Last week's discussion included some focus on whether minor improvements might be warranted for parts of the
mountains region due to 30 -day percent of normal precipitation (PNP) and overall streamflow conditions. Would at least
suggest trimming the DO lobe that juts north into parts of the Catawba and upper Yadkin / New River basins.
(2) The NC drought group should consider the possibility of deterioration in the Broad River basin where the streamflow
map (http: / /waterwatch.usgs.gov / ?m= real &r =nc &w= real %2Cmap) continues to indicate conditions in the "less than 10th
percentile" range at a number of streamgages in this basin. Introduction of deterioration would involve bringing D2 into
this area (already just across the border in SC). Would welcome some thoughts from locals in this area.
(3) Widespread "less than 10th percentile" conditions also appear to be expanding across the central Piedmont into the
southern Coastal Plain in combination with growing 30 -day PNP for much of the same area. Not certain that D2
conditions are currently warranted, but the possibility of deterioration in drought needs to be considered by the group in
the coming week or so if substantial rainfalls do not occur. Deterioration for this week's release could be implemented by
introducing D1 across the central Yadkin basin into the upper Cape Fear basin to connect to existing D1 in the upper
Neuse River basin.
(4) Following the previous comment... deterioration in the southern / central Coastal Plain could be implemented by filling
in the lower part of the DO area in this region. Groundwater conditions in the Coastal Plain are indicated much below
normal at most wells in this region, and 30 -day PNP deficits are indicated in the 25 to 50 percent range with a few smaller
areas in the less than 25 percent range.
(5) The 30 -day PNP also point to parts of the Sand Hills region as possibly being warranted for improvements, but
streamflow conditions in this area continue to be below - normal. Thus continued "status quo" appears to be appropriate
for this area.
(6) Suggest continued "status quo" in the northern Coastal Plain.
Comments and opinions welcome...
Thanks.
JCWeaver
****************************** * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * **
J. Curtis Weaver, Hydrologist, PE
USGS North Carolina Water Science Center
3916 Sunset Ridge Road
Raleigh, NC 27607
Phone: [phone] H Fax: [phone]
Mobile: [phone]
E -mail address -- jcweaver @usgs.gov
Internet address -- http: / /nc.water.usgs.gov/
****************************** * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * **
-- USDM draft (if available) --
As of Monday evening, draft 1 for this week's version was available with no changes yet indicated for North Carolina.

Matthew Rosencrans, meteorologist with the Climate Prediction Center in Camp Springs, Maryland, is the USDM author
for this week's release. In the email accompanying draft 1, he made no specific comments concerning Carolinas region.
USDM archive (you can select North Carolina from the drop -down box near the top, a quick way to see the last two USDM
releases):
http: / /drought.unl.edu /dm /archive.html
-- Observed precipitation --
Sources of precipitation totals are available from the following:
(1) USGS rainfall totals (sorted by county) for the last 7 days at
http : / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /current ?tvpe = precip &group kev= county cd
(2) State Climate Office of North Carolina at http : / /www.nc - climate.ncsu.edu /mpe departure/
(3) NOAA NWS's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service at http: / /water.weather.gov /precip/

Image shown below pulled from the NOAA NWS's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service at
http : / /water.weather.gov /precip/
North Carolina: Current 7 —Day Observed Precipitation
Valid at 4/30/2012 1200 UTC— Created 4/30/12 23:55 UTC
-- Streamflow --
4: I � •
Current conditions are depicted as real -time, 7 -day, 14 -day, and 28 -day flows available in the WaterWatch series of maps
at:
http://waterwatch.usgs.gov/classic/?m=real&r=nc&w=real%2Cmap
Current conditions...
4

Tuesday, May 01, 2012 08 :30ET
WIM
MUSIGS
Last week's conditions...
Tuesday, April 24, 2012 08 :30ET
When viewing the USGS WaterWatch streamflow information, you can hover your cursor over a site and a pop -up box
Explanation - Percentile classes
......,.
Lew X10
1 5 -7 r 6 -90 >
. �
dol- ranked Ajr
m ed u
w __I
,
4OW Ahpvp MUch abO �8l tral . rmal
�
When viewing the USGS WaterWatch streamflow information, you can hover your cursor over a site and a pop -up box

appears with various pieces of information, including the percentile for the current streamflow AND the current percentage
of mean and median for the calendar date.
Highlighting current flows (May 01 morning) at some selected gaging stations (obtained from
http : / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /current / ?type =flow ):
Site number
Site name (and County)
Flow Apr 23
Current
flow
(% of)
Median May 01
02053200
Potecasi Creek near Union (Hertford) --
460
cfs
319
cfs
462%
69 cfs
02106500
Black River near Tomahawk (Sampson) --
222
cfs
143
cfs
280
514 cfs
02085500
Flat River at Bahama (Durham) --
102
cfs
38
cfs
54%
70 cfs
02096960
Haw River near Bynum (Chatham) --
1,240
cfs
348
cfs
490
714 cfs
02115360
Yadkin River at Enon (Yadkin) --
3,280
cfs
1,910
cfs
780
2,450 cfs
02152100
First Broad River near Casar (Cleveland) --
37
cfs
34
cfs
400
85 cfs
03451500
French Broad River at Asheville (Buncombe) --
1,950
cfs
1,720
cfs
810
2,130 cfs
03550000
Valley River at Tomotla (Cherokee) --
206
cfs
215
cfs
84%
256 cfs
Focusing on the 7-day average flows...
Visit the WaterWatch pages at http: / /waterwatch.usgs.gov /classic / ?r =nc to get the most recent data for sites of interest.
Durations plots for selected individual USGS stations can be accessed at http: / /nc.water.usgs.gov /drought /duration.html
The OVERALL 7 -day average flows by HUC map
(http:Hwaterwatch.usgs.gov /classic / ?m= pa07d &r= nc &w =pa07d nwc %2Cmap) are depicted in the image below:
Monday, April 30, 2012
I, SGS
6

To help provide more detail by major basin, the BELOW NORMAL 7 -day average flows by HUC map
(http: / /waterwatch.usgs.gov /classic /index.php ?map type =drvw &state =nc) are depicted in the image below:
Monday, April 30, 2012
As of April 29 (Sunday), the graph of 7 -day flow percentiles shown below indicates 33 percent of sites across North
Carolina have percentiles for 7 -day average flows falling below the 25th percentile for the calendar date. And 17 percent
of sites across North Carolina are shown as having 7 -day average flows below the 10th percentile or reaching new
minimum for calendar date.
Compared to April 22 (Sunday), the current values indicate improvements in overall streamflow conditions during course
of the past week (following recent rainfalls), considering 52% of sites across the state were below the 25th percentile and
27% of sites were below 10th percentile and /or reaching new minimum for the calendar date. However, the pattern has
reversed in the last day, and the percentage of sites with below - normal 7 -day average flows is increasing.
Below is a graph developed from the 7 -day average flow summary table available at:
http: / /waterwater.usgs.gov/ classic / ?m= pa07d &r= nc &w= paO7d %2Ctable

1
f
Less than 25th percentile
Less than 10th percentile
New min forthe clay
Percentage of sites in North Carolina with 7 -day
indicated percentile range or love
Date
M
Another measure of the streamflow conditions is available from maps of median percentiles for 7 -day average flows for
the previous 7 -, 14- 30 -, 60 -, and 90 -day periods updated through April 30 (Monday). These maps are intended to
provide some kind of "long- term" index of the streamflow conditions (not available through the USGS WaterWatch pages)
that is mapped according to the classification scheme for streamflow used by the U.S. Drought Monitor. Map images (via
the above URL) showing the median percentiles for 7 -day average flows for previous 7 and 30 days are shown below.
http: / /nc. water. usgs .gov /drought/dm- streamflow.html
8

Previous 7 days
Monday, April 30, 2012
H
A
Previous 30 days
Monday, April 30, 2012
Explanation
No - No Drought ( >30 percentile)
DO - Abnormally Dry (21 to 30 percentile)
D1 - Moderate Drought (11 to 20 percentile)
D2 - Severe Drought (6 to 10 percentile)
D3 - Extreme Drought (3 to 5 percentile)
D4 - Exceptional Drought (0 to 2 percentile)
n/d - Not determined
Unregulated Regulated
a
III
D
❑
0

The following ArcMap screenshot shows the change in the median percentiles of 7 -day average flows for 7 -day period
from last week (with last week's U.S. Drought Monitor in the background). In other words, at a given site, take last
week's median percentile and compare it to this week's median percentile. Sites in red indicate a decrease in the median
percentile from last week to this week (suggesting a decline in streamflow). Sites in blue indicate an increase in the
median percentile from last week to this week (suggesting an improvement decline in streamflow). The size of the circles
indicates the general range in percentile increase or decrease (note legend to left of the map).
File Edit View Bookmarks Insert Selection Tools Window Help
El 0 Layers
E] 2 .,automated DM maps (short string)
E] ❑�r (weekly change in 7 -day median percerj E-
®all other values�,
10 to 25 percentile increase
25 to 50 percentile decrease
Greaterthan 50 percentile decrease
E
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-- Ground Water --
10
5 to 10 percentile increase
0 to 5 percentile increase
0
No percentile change
B to 5 percentile decrease
5 to 10 percentile decrease
10 to 25 percentile decrease
25 to 50 percentile decrease
Greaterthan 50 percentile decrease
E
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-- Ground Water --
10

Please visit the North Carolina Real -Time Network page at
http: / /groundwaterwatch. usqs. gov /StateMapsNet.asp ?ncd= rtn &sc =37 (map shown below) for more information on
ground -water conditions at selected USGS observation wells in North Carolina.
Shown below are the hydrographs at four selected wells across North Carolina... real -time page for USGS ground water
data in NC is available at http: / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /current ?tvpe =qw
(MOUNTAINS) NC -144 at Blantyre in Transylvania County
(http: / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv / ?site no= 351808082374302 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw)
11
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Not
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Mich Below
Below
--
Normal Above hrluoh Above'
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Ranked
Normal
Normal
Normal Normal
Shown below are the hydrographs at four selected wells across North Carolina... real -time page for USGS ground water
data in NC is available at http: / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /current ?tvpe =qw
(MOUNTAINS) NC -144 at Blantyre in Transylvania County
(http: / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv / ?site no= 351808082374302 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw)
11

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(WESTERN PIEDMONT) NC -193, Piedmont RS near Barber in Rowan County
(http: / /waterdata .usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv / ?dd cd =01 72019 00003 &format =imq default &site no= 354057080362601 &set to
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(http: / /waterdata .usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv / ?dd cd =01 72019 00003 &format =imq default &site no= 354057080362601 &set to
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---- Provisional Data
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(http: // groundwaterwatch .usgs.gov /AWLSites.asp ?S= 354404078403101 &ncd =rtn)
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Daily
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--Daily
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Period
of approved data
Period
of provisional data
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recorded water level prior to MY2911 (27 +89 ft Dec 12, 2998)
(COASTAL PLAIN) NC -160 near Simpson in Pitt County
( http:/ /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv/ ?site no= 353219077153801 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw)
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prior to
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18