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Home My WebLink About20051457 Ver 1_Re USGS streamflow and ground-water conditions in NC through Monday October 24 2.msg_20111025Strickland, Bev From: Patricia Tanner [Patricia.Tanner @noaa.gov] Sent: Tuesday, October 25, 2011 12:25 PM To: John C Weaver Cc: Linwood Peele; Ashley. E.Hatchell @usace. army. miI; Brian. Cullen @noaa.gov; Brian. Hai nes @ncdenr.gov; david.lane @ncdenr.gov; debra.owen @ncdenr.gov; eric.seymour @noaa.gov; gagalleh @duke - energy.com; garry_grabow @ncsu.edu; George. Mathews @noaa.gov; harold.m.brady @ncdenr.gov; jamie.kritzer @ncdenr.gov; jeff.orrock @noaa.gov; jim.prevette @ncdenr.gov; jucilene.hoffmann @ncdenr.gov; Lara.Pagano @noaa.gov; Michael .A.Young @saw02.usace. army. miI; Michael. Moneypenny @noaa.gov; mike.orbon @ncdenr.gov; neelufa.sarwar @ncdenr.gov; Peter. Corrigan @noaa.gov; Richard. Neuherz @noaa.gov; rwall @ncem.org; ryan_boyles @ncsu.edu; sarah.young @ncdenr.gov; Todd. Hamill @noaa.gov; Tom.Fransen @ncdenr.gov; tom.reeder @ncdenr.gov; tony_dorn @nass.usda.gov; Torey_Lawrence @nass.usda.gov; Vernon.Cox @ncagr.gov- Wayne.Munden @ncdenr.gov; woody. yonts @ncdenr.gov; Brian Fuchs; Allison.Wash @va.usda.gov; Kathleen Carroll; Darin Figurskey; Glenn Carrin Subject: Re: USGS streamflow and ground -water conditions in NC through Monday, October 24 we may want to back down some in mecklenburg and union counties some.. but again they are only in a DO now and hate to clip clop around. otherwise i am good with status quo. On 10/25/2011 11:08 AM, John C Weaver wrote: NC Drought advisory group, The precipitation totals maps ( http : / /water.weather.gov /precip /) indicate widespread 0.5+ -inch totals across most all North Carolina with exception of some areas in the northwest Piedmont and northern mountains. Higher totals exceeding 1 and 2 inches are indicated in a line running from Union County northeast towards Granville County. Even higher totals exceeding 3 and 4 inches are indicated for most of the Outer Banks. The mix of streamflow conditions noted in the past few weeks continues to be the situation for North Carolina as shown on the current real -time streamflow map (http: / /waterwatch.usgs.gov/ new / ?m= real &r =nc &w= real %2Cmap). Areas that continue to bear close monitoring are along a line running from the Broad River and upper Catawba River basins, then eastward along the northern tier from the upper Cape Fear into the upper Tar River basin, then southwest towards the Sand Hills region. As of this morning, there are 14 USGS streamgages along this line with streamflow conditions in the "less than 10th percentile" range, including two at record low for the calendar date (Reedy Fork near Oak Ridge in Guilford County and Flat River below dam near Bahama in Durham County). An additional area needing continued monitoring is extreme southern mountains where streamflow conditions for two gages are indicated in the 'less than 10th percentile" range. As of October 23 (Sunday), streamflow conditions indicate 21 percent of sites across North Carolina have percentiles for 7 -day average flows falling below the 25th percentile for the calendar date (see graph below). This percentage suggests some improvements in overall streamflow relative to 51 percent just a week ago. Over the past month, there appears to have been very little change in the groundwater depictions shown on the Climate Response Network in North Carolina (http: / /ogw01.er.usgs.gov /crn /StateMaps /NC.html). Water levels at the 10 Blue Ridge, Piedmont, and Sand Hills observations wells in the continue to be depicted in the normal range for 8 wells and much below normal for 2 wells: one near Marston in Scotland County (http: // groundwaterwatch .usgs.gov /AWLSites.asp ?S= 345812079313401 &ncd =crn) and the well at Chapel Hill in Orange County (http: // groundwaterwatch .usgs.gov /AWLSites. asp ?S = 355522079043001 &ncd =crn). As of October 24, the water level at the Chapel Hill well is currently 46.33 feet below land surface, very close to the record low water level for October at 46.58 ft and likewise close to the POR low of 46.77 ft set in December 1956. The current water level is also about 2.5 feet below the level this time last year. As noted in previous weeks, the water levels for the 6 wells in the Coastal Plain continue to be depicted in the normal range for 4 wells, above normal for 1 well, and below normal for 1 well near Grantham in Wayne County (http: // groundwaterwatch .usgs.gov /AWLSites.asp ?S= 353219077153801 &ncd =crn). Draft 1 for this week's release was not available as of Tuesday morning. Changes to the NC depictions in last week's USDM included some trimming of the DO northern extent from the mountains region into the Piedmont, the biggest changes being in the central Piedmont. Some trimming of the D1 and D2 in the Broad River basin within the southwest Piedmont also occurred in last week's version. Given the rainfall pattern noted for last week, the initial tendency is to refrain from any substantial changes and use "status quo" for this week's release. The challenge in deciding the appropriate depictions is that streamflows are mixed, particularly across the Piedmont region. However, a close inspection of the 30 -day percent of normal precipitation may provide some guidance. Widespread 30 -day percent of normal in the 25 to 50 percent range is visible for much of the southern mountains and western Piedmont. Some deterioration may be warranted this area. Likewise for parts of the southern Coastal Plain where 30 -day values in the 25 -50 percent range are noted( ?). One advantage being gained as we transition towards the cooler months is the reduction in evaporation amounts. Comments and opinions welcome... Thanks. JCWeaver ****************************** * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * ** J. Curtis Weaver, Hydrologist, PE USGS North Carolina Water Science Center 3916 Sunset Ridge Road Raleigh, NC 27607 Phone: (919) 571 -4043 H Fax: (919) 571 -4041 Mobile: (919) 830 -6235 E -mail address -- Icweaver(c�usgs.gov Internet address -- http: / /nc.water.usgs.gov/ ****************************** * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * ** -- USDM draft (if available) -- As of Tuesday morning, draft 1 for this week's version was not available. David Miskus, meteorologist with the Climate Prediction Center in Camp Springs, Maryland, is again the USDM author for this week's release. In his "preliminary thoughts" email issued late Tuesday morning, he made the following comments concerning the Southeast region. Southeast: Scattered showers & T- storms dropped some locally heavy amounts on drought areas (e.g. eastern Panhandle FL) and across sections of the northern drought boundary (nGA, seTN, and the Carolinas), but I'll have to check if it was enough to remove large or small areas of the drought. Where little or no rain fell, will need to expand the drought a bit, although much cooler weather accompanied the dryness. Short-term dryness (30 -days) in AL & MS is beginning to offset the heavy rains from TS Lee as the 'no drought gap' between the 2 major drought areas (s &cPlains and the Southeast) is starting to close. Also expect an eastward drought creep to continue in the lower Delta (sLA, sMS) as little or no rain fell there again. • l.,.a a 40 KWOUSimi &I !�,.., i•a qfLTr USDM archive (you can select North Carolina from the drop -down box near the top, a quick way to see the last two USDM releases): http: / /drought.unl.edu /dm /archive.html -- Observed precipitation -- Sources of precipitation totals are available from the following: (1) USGS rainfall totals (sorted by county) for the last 7 days at http : / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /current ?tvpe = precip &group kev= county cd (2) State Climate Office of North Carolina at http : / /www.nc - climate.ncsu.edu /mpe departure/ (3) NOAA NWS's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service at http://water.weather.gov/preci shown below pulled from the NOAA NWS's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service at http: / /water.weather.gov /precip/ North Carolina: Current 7 —Day Observed Precipitation Valid at 10/2412011 1200 UTC— Created 10/24/11 23:55 UTC -- Streamflow -- 4: I � • Current conditions are depicted as real -time, 7 -day, 14 -day, and 28 -day flows available in the WaterWatch series of maps 3 at: htto:Hwaterwatch. usas.aov/ classic / ?m= real &r =nc &w= real %2Cma Current conditions... Tuesday, October 25, 2011 08 :30ET Last week's conditions... Tuesday, October 18, 2011 08 :30ET WIM MUSGS When viewing the USGS WaterWatch streamflow information, you can hover your cursor over a site and a pop -up box appears with various pieces of information, including the percentile for the current streamflow AND the current percentage of mean and median for the calendar date. Highlighting current flows (October 25 morning) at some selected gaging stations (obtained from http : / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /current / ?type =flow ): Site number Explanation - Percentile classes Flow Oct 18 , flow (% of) Low X10 10-2-4--'j 575 76 -90 >0 � ...... � ............ - Hi I�ol- ranked jr N m ed ur - ---- ---- -- ebw P trnal A,,we %asU)a, , _ mar €Y,,aI When viewing the USGS WaterWatch streamflow information, you can hover your cursor over a site and a pop -up box appears with various pieces of information, including the percentile for the current streamflow AND the current percentage of mean and median for the calendar date. Highlighting current flows (October 25 morning) at some selected gaging stations (obtained from http : / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /current / ?type =flow ): Site number Site name (and County) Flow Oct 18 Current flow (% of) Median Oct 25 02053200 Potecasi Creek near Union (Hertford) -- 17 cfs 90 cfs 5290 17 cfs 02106500 Black River near Tomahawk (Sampson) -- 118 cfs 132 cfs 55% 239 cfs 02085500 Flat River at Bahama (Durham) -- 3.7 cfs 2.4 cfs 20% 12 cfs 02096960 Haw River near Bynum (Chatham) -- 186 cfs 271 cfs 1050 259 cfs 02115360 Yadkin River at Enon (Yadkin) -- 1,010 cfs 1,170 cfs 85% 1,370 cfs 02152100 First Broad River near Casar (Cleveland) -- 21 cfs 22 cfs 490 45 cfs 03451500 French Broad River at Asheville (Buncombe) -- 696 cfs 780 cfs 700 1,110 cfs 03550000 Valley River at Tomotla (Cherokee) -- 47 cfs 54 cfs 730 74 cfs Focusing on the 7-day average flows... Visit the WaterWatch pages at http: / /waterwatch.usgs.gov /classic / ?r =nc to get the most recent data for sites of interest. Durations plots for selected individual USGS stations can be accessed at http: / /nc.water.usgs.gov /drought /duration.html The OVERALL 7 -day average flows by HUC map (http:Hwaterwatch.usgs.gov /classic / ?m= pa07d &r= nc &w =pa07d nwc %2Cmap) are depicted in the image below: 5 Monday, October 24, 2011 To help provide more detail by major basin, the BELOW NORMAL 7 -day average flows by HUC map (http: / /waterwatch.usgs.gov /classic /index.php ?map type =drvw &state =nc) are depicted in the image below: Monday, October 24, 2011 As of October 23 (Sunday), the graph of 7 -day flow percentiles shown below indicates 21 percent of sites across North Carolina have percentiles for 7 -day average flows falling below the 25th percentile for the calendar date. And 2 percent of sites across North Carolina are shown as having 7 -day average flows below the 10th percentile or reaching new minimum for calendar date. Compared to October 16 (Sunday), the current values indicate some improvements in overall streamflow conditions during course of the past week, considering 26% of sites across the state were below the 25th percentile and 7% of sites were below 10th percentile and /or reaching new minimum for the calendar date. Below is a graph developed from the 7 -day average flow summary table available at: http: / /waterwater.usgs.gov/ classic / ?m= pa07d &r= nc &w= pa07d %2Ctable i? If i -# #. Less than 25th percentile Less than 10th percentile New rain fcrthe day Percentage of sites in North Carolina with 7 -day t indicated percentile range or lowe October November December January February March # 2010 2010 2010 2011 2011 2011 Date Another measure of the streamflow conditions is available from maps of median percentiles for 7 -day average flows for the previous 7 -, 14- 30 -, 60 -, and 90 -day periods updated through October 24 (Monday). These maps are intended to provide some kind of "long-term" index of the streamflow conditions (not available through the USGS WaterWatch pages) that is mapped according to the classification scheme for streamflow used by the U.S. Drought Monitor. Map images (via the above URL) showing the median percentiles for 7 -day average flows for previous 7 and 30 days are shown below. http: / /nc. water. usgs .gov /drought/dm- streamflow.html L Q ''i Previous 30 days Monday, October 24, 2011 Explanation No - No Drought ( >30 percentile) DO - Abnormally Dry (21 to 30 percentile) D1 - Moderate Drought (11 to 20 percentile) D2 - Severe Drought (6 to 10 percentile) D3 - Extreme Drought (3 to 5 percentile) D4 - Exceptional Drought (0 to 2 percentile) Unregulated Regulated 6 IM 0 ❑ 0 Em IF E s n/d - Not determined The following ArcMap screenshot shows the change in the median percentiles of 7 -day average flows for 7 -day period from last week (with last week's U.S. Drought Monitor in the background). In other words, at a given site, take last week's median percentile and compare it to this week's median percentile. Sites in red indicate a decrease in the median percentile from last week to this week (suggesting a decline in streamflow). Sites in blue indicate an increase in the median percentile from last week to this week (suggesting an improvement decline in streamflow). The size of the circles indicates the general range in percentile increase or decrease (note legend to left of the map). File Edit View Bookmarks Insert Selection Tools Window Help --- ____ ____ _____mmmm________ 23 61 & 10 rc r + 1:3,540,016 ............................................................................................................................................. ..............................' x m- maye_________ _________ _________ _________ _________ ___ Layers -1 ❑Q Automated DM maps (short string) -;; ❑Q (weekly change in 7 -day median percentile) ® <all other values> WeeHy_c_1 i ? ;tj ,> + xv O a Editor P 5 Source Selection) ' �! ur mu��m�� «�� Dis la � ' Drawing ❑ — A FlolArial �10___ B I U A — ts � � + 0 nid Greater than 50 percentile increase 25 to 50 percentile increase 10 to 25 percentile increase 5 to 10 percentile increase 0 to 5 percentile increase B No percentile change 0 to 5 percentile decrease 5 to 10 percentile decrease 10 to 25 percentile decrease 25 to 50 percentile decrease Greater than 50 percentile decrease i ? ;tj ,> + xv O a Editor P 5 Source Selection) ' �! ur mu��m�� «�� Dis la � ' Drawing ❑ — A FlolArial �10___ B I U A — ts � � + 0 -- Ground Water -- Please visit the Climate Response Network page at http: / /groundwaterwatch. usqs. gov /StateMapsNet.asp ?ncd= crn &sc =37 (map shown below) for more information on ground -water conditions at selected USGS observation wells in North Carolina. AWES l'IRGIFIIAhrlQttev "! 17 Uliarsauu unto ; F ok Logan Oak .,i V I Ek {i. A Ta,pp""A'annock Atlantic into Bedtle Sapid �tdti ham ° �Welo U"nio White Mane Beach 60 , 0 1 g Co �omaJ 1 1413h l� t (E,astville ° " "P asking Oanok" f� grt Me Virginia 7 Explanation - Percentile class �. ......ee __ New <10 1024 25-75 75-90 >90 New Not Bel' ..... — - ....... " Low hrluch ''""' ""'Bel' Nonnal love hrluGl l oved High Ranked Shown below are the hydrographs at four selected wells across North Carolina... real -time page for USGS ground water data in NC is available at http: / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /current ?tvpe =qw (MOUNTAINS) NC -144 at Blantyre in Transylvania County (http: / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv / ?site no= 351808082374302 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw) 10 11 USES 351 080823 '430 TR-065 (NC-144) AT BLANTYRE, NC (REGOLITH) - 2114.40 32.80 CU Q. - 2114.20 33.00 - 2114.00 33.20 z - 2113.80 o 33.40 (U L m 2113.60 L (U 33.60 CU 4J 2113.40 L 0 33.80 CU 4J 2113.20 m 3 CL 34.00 C L Oct Oct Oct Oct OIL 08 15 22 2011 2011 2011 2011 ---- Provisional Data Subject to Revision ---- 11 (WESTERN PIEDMONT) NC -193, Piedmont RS near Barber in Rowan County (http: / /waterdata .usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv / ?dd cd =01 72019 00003 &format =imq default &site no= 354057080362601 &set to qscale v =0 &begin date = 20070319) 12 USES 351 0808237430 TR -065 (SIC -144) AT BLANTYRE, HC (RE OLITH a 27.E 2129.9 m Q Q. a, 28.9 2119.9 0 29 +0 2118.9 0 z Do L) ' c 39.9 2117.9 L 4 > M r 31.9 2116.9 4� 0 32 +$ 2115.9 4 4J C6 L Gi Q p 33.9 2114.9 +} +4 J C H G 34 +0 � L Now Jan Mar May Jul Sep 2919 2911 2911 2911 2911 2911 — Daily nean depth to water level Period of provisional data Period of approved data (WESTERN PIEDMONT) NC -193, Piedmont RS near Barber in Rowan County (http: / /waterdata .usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv / ?dd cd =01 72019 00003 &format =imq default &site no= 354057080362601 &set to qscale v =0 &begin date = 20070319) 12 13 SGS 3540 x'0803 01 Rte -149 NC -193) PIEDMONT RS 1 NR BARBER (RE OLIT m C 8 +40 669,60 45 8 +45 669 +55 y GF 4} 8 +50 .... 669 +50 d > L7 �F z �y 8 +55 669 +45 8 +60 669 +40 L 4J 8 +65 669 +35 } L ° 4 8 +70 669 +30 CU +. L C 8.75 669 +25 � G L L Oct Oct Oct Oct Lo 01 08 15 22 2011 2011 2011 2011 - - -- Provisional data Subject to Revision - - -- 0 Measured depth to water level — Depth to water level 13 (EASTERN PIEDMONT) NC -126 at Chapel Hill in Orange County ( http:/ /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv/ ?site no= 355522079043001 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw) SGS 354057080362601 Rte -149 (SIC -193) PIEDMONT RS 1 NR BARBER (RE OLIT a 672 +0 1 6 +0 OR -069 (NC-126) AT CHAPEL 0 (RE t LITH) 46 +00 CU � 465 +50 4' CU 4J 6.5 671 +5 46.05 465 +45 c; 7 +0 671 +0 G }, } L) C 7 +5 670 +5 z L 0 z �y 8 +0 670 +0 r 465 +35 �} L 8 +5 46 +20 669 +5 4J C6 465 +30 t4 L Gi 4� ° 9 +0 669 +0 +} s -J L 46 +25 r H G 9.5 668 +5 � Now Jan Mar May Jul Sep CL7 2010 2911 2911 2911 2011 2911 L +°} — Daily nean depth to water level Period of provisional data Period of approved data 465 +20 (EASTERN PIEDMONT) NC -126 at Chapel Hill in Orange County ( http:/ /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv/ ?site no= 355522079043001 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw) 14 USGS 355522079 143001 OR -069 (NC-126) AT CHAPEL HILL, H (RE t LITH) 46 +00 465 +50 4' CU 46.05 465 +45 c; }, 46 +10 465 +40 0 z �y 46 +15 465 +35 0 L 46 +20 465 +30 t4 L 46 +25 465 +25 GU } L +°} 46 +30 465 +20 CU +} m L � C CL 46 +35 465 +15 0 L C7 Oct Oct Oct Oct 01 08 15 22 2011 2011 2011 2011 - - -- Provisional Data Subject to Revision - - -- 14 (COASTAL PLAIN) NC -160 near Simpson in Pitt County ( http:/ /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv/ ?site no= 353219077153801 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw) 15 USGS 3555 079043001 OR -069 (NC -126) AT CHAPEL HILL, H (RE t LITH) a 468.5 w 43.0 cu Q Q. 43.5 468.9 44.9 467.5 0 z Do L) 44.5 467.9 L M s 45.9 466.5 cu D L 45.5 466.9 C6 Gib Q ° 46.9 465.5 +} s J r H CE G 46.5 465.9 0 0 Now Jan Mar May Jul Sep CL 2919 2911 2911 2911 2911 2911 — Daily nean depth to water level Period of provisional data Period of approved data (COASTAL PLAIN) NC -160 near Simpson in Pitt County ( http:/ /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv/ ?site no= 353219077153801 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw) 15 16 USES 353219077153801 PI-532 (NC-160) NR IMP ON, NC (SURFICIAL,) 2.00 54.00 F 2.50 53.50 Lo z CU 3.00 D (U L m L 53.00 CU DO Q 4J to CU —1 3.50 L O CU -W 52.50 m 3 C6 4.00 Oct Oct Oct Oct L Lo 01 08 15 22 2011 2011 2011 2011 ---- Provisional Data Subject to Revision ---- 0 Measured depth to water level — Depth to water level 16 17 USGS 353 19077153801 PI -532 (NC-160) NR SIMPSON, N URFI IAL) O 4ti 1.0 55.9 Q- 2 ry +9 54 *0 S 41 3.9 0% � 53•$ � #$ 52.0 41 5 +9 51.0 �- �$ 50.0 } CU �} r -W 7.0 49.0 rl L C6 Q 8.0 Gi P 48.0 s N 9.0 C o Now Jan Mar May Jul Sep 2010 2011 2911 2911 2911 2911 0 — Daily nean depth to water level Period of approved data Period of provisional data — Lowest recorded water level prior to MY2011 (8.97 ft Oct 23,24, 2007) 17