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Home My WebLink About20051457 Ver 1_Re USGS streamflow and ground-water conditions in NC through Monday October 03.msg_20111004Strickland, Bev From: Peter Corrigan [Peter. Corrigan @noaa.gov] Sent: Tuesday, October 04, 2011 11:56 AM To: John C Weaver Cc: Linwood Peele; Ashley. E.Hatchell @usace. army. miI; Brian. Cullen @noaa.gov; Brian. Hai nes @ncdenr.gov; david.lane @ncdenr.gov; debra.owen @ncdenr.gov; eric.seymour @noaa.gov; gagalleh @duke - energy.com; garry_grabow @ncsu.edu; George. Mathews @noaa.gov; harold.m.brady @ncdenr.gov; jamie.kritzer @ncdenr.gov; jeff.orrock @noaa.gov; jim.prevette @ncdenr.gov; jucilene.hoffmann @ncdenr.gov; Lara.Pagano @noaa.gov; Michael .A.Young @saw02.usace. army. miI; Michael. Moneypenny @noaa.gov; mike.orbon @ncdenr.gov; neelufa.sarwar @ncdenr.gov; Patricia. Tanner @noaa.gov; Richard. Neuherz @noaa.gov; rwall @ncem.org; ryan_boyles @ncsu.edu; sarah.young @ncdenr.gov; Todd. Hamill @noaa.gov; Tom.Fransen @ncdenr.gov; tom.reeder @ncdenr.gov; tony_dorn @nass.usda.gov; Torey_Lawrence @nass.usda.gov; Vernon.Cox @ncagr.gov- Wayne.Munden @ncdenr.gov; woody. yonts @ncdenr.gov; Brian Fuchs; Allison.Wash @va.usda.gov; Kathleen Carroll; Darin Figurskey; Glenn Carrin Subject: Re: USGS streamflow and ground -water conditions in NC through Monday, October 03 Attachments: peter_corrigan.vcf Working raids this week so not on call... concur fully with status quo in NW NC counties PC On 10/4/2011 11:36 AM, John C Weaver wrote: NC Drought advisory group, Rainfall totals and spatial distribution across North Carolina during the past week were not as high and widespread, respectively, as that which occurred just a few weeks ago. Most of this past week's rainfall was concentrated in the eastern half of the state where 0.5+ inch totals were fairly common ( http : / /water.weather.gov /precip /). Little to no rainfall occurred in the western half during the past week. The current real -time streamflow maps (http: / /waterwatch.usgs.gov/ new / ?m= real &r =nc &w= real %2Cmap) depict a mix of conditions across most of the Piedmont with below - normal and normal conditions. However, after a previous week of normal and above - normal conditions across the Piedmont following the rainfall a few weeks ago, there appears to be a return shift towards below - normal conditions in this region. The only regions with widespread normal conditions are (1) much of the Coastal Plain and (2) the central /northern mountains near the Tennessee border. Two particular areas that need closer monitoring in the coming weeks are (1) the southern mountains in the Hiwassee and Little Tennessee River basins as well as (2) the Catawba and Broad River basins. There are a couple USGS streamgages in these regions with streamflows depicted in the "less than 10th percentile" range. As of October 02 (Sunday), streamflow conditions indicate 24 percent of sites across North Carolina have percentiles for 7 -day average flows falling below the 25th percentile for the calendar date (see graph below). This percentage suggests some declines in overall streamflow relative to 8 percent just a week ago. Water levels at the 10 Blue Ridge, Piedmont, and Sand Hills observations wells in the Climate Response Network (http: / /ogw01.er.usgs.gov /crn /StateMaps /NC.html) are depicted in the normal range for 8 wells and much below normal for 2 wells: one near Marston in Scotland County (http: // groundwaterwatch .usgs.gov /AWLSites.asp ?S= 345812079313401 &ncd =crn) and the well at Chapel Hill in Orange County (http: // groundwaterwatch .usgs.gov /AWLSites. asp ?S = 355522079043001 &ncd =crn). Water levels for the 6 wells in the Coastal Plain continue to be depicted in the normal range for 3 wells, above normal for 2 wells, and much above normal for 1 well near Simpson in Pitt County (http: // groundwaterwatch .usgs.gov /AWLSites.asp ?S= 353219077153801 &ncd =crn). Draft 1 for this week's release was not available as of Tuesday morning. The USDM author acknowledged the recent rainfall across the Carolinas, but noted below - normal precipitation is still visible in the 90+ day percent of normal values. Changes to last week's map included an across - the -board 1- category improvement for the Piedmont region with reductions in D0, D1, and D2 (Broad River basin). An area of D1 depiction was maintained from parts of the southern Coastal Plain and Sand Hills into the eastern fringe of the Piedmont. Based on observations of the recent rainfall and hydrologic patterns, the use of "status quo" may be appropriate for this week's release to allow for continued monitoring of conditions across the Piedmont. If there are any improvements to be made, it would be limited to minor reductions in D1 across parts of the southern Coastal Plain and Sand Hills( ?). Several areas need to be closely monitored: (1) the southern mountains in the Hiwassee and Little Tennessee River basins as well as the (2) southwest Piedmont region within the Catawba and Broad River basins where several USGS streamgages are depicted with streamflows in the "less that 10th percentile" range. Comments and opinions welcome... Thanks. JCWeaver ****************************** * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * ** J. Curtis Weaver, Hydrologist, PE USGS North Carolina Water Science Center 3916 Sunset Ridge Road Raleigh, NC 27607 Phone: (919) 571 -4043 H Fax: (919) 571 -4041 Mobile: (919) 830 -6235 E -mail address -- Icweaver(c�usps.pov Internet address -- http: / /nc.water.usgs.gov/ ****************************** * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * ** -- USDM draft (if available) -- As of Tuesday morning, draft 1 for this week's version was not available. Rich Tinker, meteorologist with the Climate Prediction Center in Camp Springs, Maryland, is the USDM author for this week's release. In the "preliminary thoughts" email, he made the following specific comments concerning the Carolinas region: • Good rains in parts of Carolinas; still dry 90+ days in worser ( ?) areas, only past 180 days farther north; considerations pending conference call. USDM archive (you can select North Carolina from the drop -down box near the top, a quick way to see the last two USDM releases): http: / /drought.unl.edu /dm /archive.html -- Observed precipitation -- Sources of precipitation totals are available from the following: (1) USGS rainfall totals (sorted by county) for the last 7 days at http : / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /current ?tvpe = precip &group kev= county cd (2) State Climate Office of North Carolina at http : / /www.nc - climate.ncsu.edu /mpe departure/ (3) NOAA NWS's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service at http://water.weather.gov/preci shown below pulled from the NOAA NWS's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service at http: / /water.weather.gov /precip/ North Carolina: Current 7 —Day Observed Precipitation Valid at 10/3/2011 1200 UTC— Created 10/3/11 22:46 UTC -- Streamflow -- Current conditions are depicted as real -time, 7 -day, 14 -day, and 28 -day flows available in the WaterWatch series of maps at: http://waterwatch.usgs.gov/classic/?m=real&r=nc&w=real%2Cmap 3 Current conditions... Tuesday, October 04, 2011 08 :30ET WIM MUSIGS Last week's conditions... Tuesday, Septenber 27, 2011 07 :30ET When viewing the USGS WaterWatch streamflow information, you can hover your cursor over a site and a pop -up box Explanation - Percentile classes ............. . .... , Lew .. � - �: Ali Idol- ranked �ry� Nchbedp ur - ---- ---- -� 840Wl P trr�al AhpVp %�asU)a,�OV�, � mar€ -- r� rm l When viewing the USGS WaterWatch streamflow information, you can hover your cursor over a site and a pop -up box appears with various pieces of information, including the percentile for the current streamflow AND the current percentage of mean and median for the calendar date. Highlighting current flows (October 04 morning) at some selected gaging stations (obtained from http : / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /current / ?type =flow ): Site number Site name (and County) Flow Sep 27 Current flow (% of) Median Oct 04 02053200 Potecasi Creek near Union (Hertford) -- 399 cfs 416 cfs 29170 14.0 cfs 02106500 Black River near Tomahawk (Sampson) -- 410 cfs 232 cfs 80% 290 cfs 02085500 Flat River at Bahama (Durham) -- 2.0 cfs 2.4 cfs 170 14.0 cfs 02096960 Haw River near Bynum (Chatham) -- 379 cfs 116 cfs 460 250 cfs 02115360 Yadkin River at Enon (Yadkin) -- 1,150 cfs 852 cfs 670 1,270 cfs 02152100 First Broad River near Casar (Cleveland) -- 30 cfs 20 cfs 50% 40 cfs 03451500 French Broad River at Asheville (Buncombe) -- 1,200 cfs 770 cfs 740 1,040 cfs 03550000 Valley River at Tomotla (Cherokee) -- 67 cfs 43 cfs 610 71 cfs Focusing on the 7-day average flows... Visit the WaterWatch pages at http: / /waterwatch.usgs.gov /classic / ?r =nc to get the most recent data for sites of interest. Durations plots for selected individual USGS stations can be accessed at http: / /nc.water.usgs.gov /drought /duration.html The OVERALL 7 -day average flows by HUC map (http:Hwaterwatch.usgs.gov /classic / ?m= pa07d &r= nc &w =pa07d nwc %2Cmap) are depicted in the image below: Monday, October 03, 2011 I, SGS 5 To help provide more detail by major basin, the BELOW NORMAL 7 -day average flows by HUC map (http: / /waterwatch.usgs.gov /classic /index.php ?map type =drvw &state =nc) are depicted in the image below: Monday, October 03, 2011 As of October 02 (Sunday), the graph of 7 -day flow percentiles shown below indicates 24 percent of sites across North Carolina have percentiles for 7 -day average flows falling below the 25th percentile for the calendar date. And 3 percent of sites across North Carolina are shown as having 7 -day average flows below the 10th percentile or reaching new minimum for calendar date. Compared to September 25 (Sunday), the current values indicate some declines in overall streamflow conditions during course of the past week, considering 8% of sites across the state were below the 25th percentile and 2% of sites were below 10th percentile and /or reaching new minimum for the calendar date. Below is a graph developed from the 7 -day average flow summary table available at: http: / /waterwater.usgs.gov/ classic / ?m= pa07d &r= nc &w= paO7d %2Ctable i i If i Less than 25th percentile Percentage of sites in North Carolina with 7 -day t Less than 10th percentile indicated percentile range or lowe New rain fcrthe day October llo - b December 2010 2010 2010 2011 2011 2011 Date Another measure of the streamflow conditions is available from maps of median percentiles for 7 -day average flows for the previous 7 -, 14- 30 -, 60 -, and 90 -day periods updated through October 03 (Monday). These maps are intended to provide some kind of "long- term" index of the streamflow conditions (not available through the USGS WaterWatch pages) that is mapped according to the classification scheme for streamflow used by the U.S. Drought Monitor. Map images (via the above URL) showing the median percentiles for 7 -day average flows for previous 7 and 30 days are shown below. http: / /nc. water. usgs .gov /drought/dm- streamflow.html H Q Previous 7 days Monday, October 0, 2011 L 3 �Fr { Explanation Unregulated Regulated No - No Drought ( >30 percentile) DO - Abnormally Dry (21 to 30 percentile) 0 ❑ D1 - Moderate Drought (11 to 20 percentile) D2 - Severe Drought (6 to 10 percentile) D3 - Extreme Drought (3 to 5 percentile) IF D4 - Exceptional Drought (0 to 2 percentile) a IM n/d - Not determined 0 ❑ s The following ArcMap screenshot shows the change in the median percentiles of 7 -day average flows for 7 -day period from last week (with last week's U.S. Drought Monitor in the background). In other words, at a given site, take last week's median percentile and compare it to this week's median percentile. Sites in red indicate a decrease in the median percentile from last week to this week (suggesting a decline in streamflow). Sites in blue indicate an increase in the median percentile from last week to this week (suggesting an improvement decline in streamflow). The size of the circles indicates the general range in percentile increase or decrease (note legend to left of the map). File Edit View Bookmarks Insert Selection Tools Window Help --- ____ ____ _____mmmm________ 23 61 & 10 rc r + 1:3,540,016 ............................................................................................................................................. ..............................' x -!, Layers -1 ❑Q Automated DM maps (short string) ® <all other values> WeeHy_c_i nid Greater than 50 percentile increase 25 to 50 percentile increase i O -? ,f., xv a Editor Display LLOurce Selection I p' rr Drawing ❑ Areal 11___ -- Ground Water -- Kn` B I U A � + - Please visit the Climate Response Network page at http: / /groundwaterwatch. usqs. gov /StateMapsNet.asp ?ncd= crn &sc =37 (map shown below) for more information on 9 10 to 25 percentile increase 5 to 10 percentile increase 0 to 5 percentile increase B No percentile change 0 to 5 percentile decrease 5 to 10 percentile decrease 10 to 25 percentile decrease 25 to 50 percentile decrease Greater than 50 percentile decrease i O -? ,f., xv a Editor Display LLOurce Selection I p' rr Drawing ❑ Areal 11___ -- Ground Water -- Kn` B I U A � + - Please visit the Climate Response Network page at http: / /groundwaterwatch. usqs. gov /StateMapsNet.asp ?ncd= crn &sc =37 (map shown below) for more information on 9 ground -water conditions at selected USGS observation wells in North Carolina. ok ONES VIRGINIA 'Ounto t " e 417 arsauu Logan Oak .,i V I "Fk G" I ra aAanncd< Atlantic �. P p i Arta " Be Me � � t " ,' � ,$alvda 4 �Welo U"nio u,, L' bUYdtir�harn� -" ° White stone Beach 60 , U,�al0niaJ H igh 6'. t ° og Eashille P askia �anok" „ f� ort Mew Virginia 7 Explanation - Percentile class �. ......ee __ New <10 1024 25-75 75-90 >90 New Not Bel' ..... — - ....... Low hrluch Below Bel¢w Normal love hrluGl l cve� High Ranked Shown below are the hydrographs at four selected wells across North Carolina... real -time page for USGS ground water data in NC is available at http: / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /current ?tvpe =qw (MOUNTAINS) NC -144 at Blantyre in Transylvania County (http: / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv / ?site no= 351808082374302 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw) 10 11 USES 351808082374302 TR -065 HC -144) AT BLANTYRE, HC (RE OLITH 31.00 2116,66 0 31,56 S GF 2115,50 �+ } 32.00 z 2115.00 } ;F G] L 'i o 32.50 m F-I L 2114.50 11 }y � G} r-I i 33.00- +} 2114,$$ � L � C G 33.50 C L Sep Sep Sep Oct ca 10 17 24 01 2011 2011 2011 2011 - - -- Provisional data Subject to Revision - - -- 0 Measured depth to water level — Depth to water level 11 (WESTERN PIEDMONT) NC -193, Piedmont RS near Barber in Rowan County (http: / /waterdata .usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv / ?dd cd =01 72019 00003 &format =imq default &site no= 354057080362601 &set to qscale v =0 &begin date = 20070319) 12 USES 351 0808237430 TR -065 (SIC -144) AT BLANTYRE, HC (RE OLITH a 27.E 2129.9 m Q. a, 28.9 2119.9 0 29 +0 2118.9 0 z Do ' c 39.9 2117.9 t > M r 31.9 2116.9 °� 0 32 +$ 2115.9 4 4J C6 L Gi Q p 33.9 2114.9 +} M >- J C G 34 +0 L Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep 2919 2911 2911 2911 2911 2911 — Daily nean depth to water level Period of provisional data Period of approved data (WESTERN PIEDMONT) NC -193, Piedmont RS near Barber in Rowan County (http: / /waterdata .usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv / ?dd cd =01 72019 00003 &format =imq default &site no= 354057080362601 &set to qscale v =0 &begin date = 20070319) 12 13 SGS 3540 x'0803 01 RO-149 (NC-193) PIEDMONT RS 1 NR BARBER (REGOLITI 8.28 669.80 C .0 CU CU Q. 8.40 - 669.60 8.60 - 669.40 z 8.80 669.20 (U L m 9.00 669.00 L (U CU 4J 9.20 668.80 O L CU 9.40 668.60 m CL C 9.60 668.40 L 0 Sep Sep Sep Oct 10 17 24 01 2011 2011 2011 2011 ---- Provisional Data Subject to Revision ---- 13 (EASTERN PIEDMONT) NC -126 at Chapel Hill in Orange County ( http:/ /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv/ ?site no= 355522079043001 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw) SGS 354057080362601 Rte -149 (SIC -193) PIEDMONT RS 1 NR BARBER (RE OLIT a 672 +0 1 6 +0 -069 0 (RE t LITH) CU � 4J 6.5 671 +5 45 85 + 465 +65 � F1 7 +9 671 +0 G Q 45 +90 } L) ' C 7 +5 670 +5 z L 45 +95 465 +55 Lo 8 +0 670 +0 r 0 46 +00 �} L 8 +5 Qb 669 +5 —I 4J L GC6ti ° 9 +0 'i o 669 +0 4J s -J r H G 9.5 668 +5 0 Now Jan Mar May Jul Sep CL7 Gi DO 2010 2911 2911 2011 2011 2911 46 +10 — Daily nean depth to water level Period of provisional data Period of approved data °1 'i � (EASTERN PIEDMONT) NC -126 at Chapel Hill in Orange County ( http:/ /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv/ ?site no= 355522079043001 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw) 14 USGS 355522079 143001 OR -069 (NC-126) AT CHAPEL HILL, H (RE t LITH) 45 85 + 465 +65 � F1 Q 45 +90 465 +60 45 +95 465 +55 Lo 0 46 +00 465 +50 Qb Qy L m 'i o 46 +05 465 +45 L Q Gi DO 46 +10 465 +4$ °1 'i � L O +} 46 +15 465 +35 GU L � i � 46 +20 465 +30 C L Sep Sep Sep Oct Lo 10 17 24 01 2011 2011 2011 2011 - - -- Provisional data Subject to Revision - - -- Measured depth to water level — Depth to water level 14 (COASTAL PLAIN) NC -160 near Simpson in Pitt County ( http:/ /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv/ ?site no= 353219077153801 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw) 15 USGS 3555 079043001 OR -069 (NC -126) AT CHAPEL HILL, H (RE t LITH) a 42.0 469.5 w cu cu .0 42.5 469.0 Q. S Q 43. .... 468.5 0 W 43.5 468.8 > } z 44.9 467.5 L L O J }' to 44.5 467.8 +4 r � to 0-1 45.8 466.5 m r-I L C6 45.5 466.$ L Q +} G M >- 46.9 465.5 J C H � CE 46.5 465.8 L Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep 2019 2911 2011 2911 2011 2011 — Daily nean depth to water level Period of provisional data Period of approved data (COASTAL PLAIN) NC -160 near Simpson in Pitt County ( http:/ /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv/ ?site no= 353219077153801 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw) 15 16 USES 353219077153801 PI-532 (NC-160) NR IMP ON, NC (SURFICIAL,) 2.40 53.80 .0 CU CU Q. 2.60 53.60 2.80 53.40 z 0 3.00 (U 53.20 (U L m L 3.20 CU (U -P 53.00 D 0 L 3.40 CU 52.80 m CL 3.60 C 52.60 L Sep Sep Sep Oct 10 17 24 01 2011 2011 2011 2011 ---- Provisional Data Subject to Revision ---- 16 17 USGS 353 19077153801 PI -532 (NC-160) NR SIMPSON, N URFI IAL) O 4ti 1.0 55.0 Q- 0 ry 2 +9 54 *0 S 3.9 0% #�2t9 �} (U 0 #$ 51.9 0 (U #09t9 } Cu r -W 7.9 49.0 rl L C6 p 8.0 Cu P 48.0 s N 9.0 C o Now Jan Mar May Jul Sep 2919 2011 2911 2911 2911 2911 0 — Daily nean depth to water level Period of approved data Period of provisional data — Lowest recorded water level prior to MY2011 (8.97 ft Oct 23,24, 2007) 17