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Home My WebLink About20051457 Ver 1_Re USGS streamflow and ground-water conditions in NC through Monday May 16.msg_20110517Strickland, Bev From: Peter Corrigan [Peter. Corrigan @noaa.gov] Sent: Tuesday, May 17, 2011 12:25 PM To: John C Weaver Cc: Yonts, Woody; Ashley. E.Hatchell @usace. army. miI; Brian. Cullen @noaa.gov; Haines, Brian; Lane, David; Owen, Debra; eric.seymour @noaa.gov; gagalleh @duke- energy.com; garry_grabow @ncsu.edu; George. Mathews @noaa.gov; Brady, Harold M.; Kritzer, Jamie; jeff.orrock @noaa.gov; Prevette, Jim; Hoffmann, Jucilene; Lara.Pagano @noaa.gov; Peele, Linwood; Michael .A.Young @saw02.usace. army. miI; Michael. Moneypenny @noaa.gov; Orbon, Mike; Sarwar, Neelufa; Patricia. Tanner @noaa.gov; Richard. Neuherz @noaa.gov; rwall @ncem.org; ryan_boyles @ncsu.edu; Young, Sarah- . Hamill @noaa.gov, Fransen, Tom; Reeder, Tom; tony_dorn @nass.usda.gov; Lawrence, Torey; Cox, Vernon N; Munden, Wayne; Brian Fuchs; Allison.Wash @va.usda.gov Subject: Re: USGS streamflow and ground -water conditions in NC through Monday, May 16 Attachments: peter_corrigan.vcf Curtis, et al. Will not be on the call today due to shift work. But status quo at the very least in the NW corner of NC. Only have 1 county in DO at this time, Rockingham. At least 1 -2 inches fell in that county past 7 days. If DM author wants to eliminate DO there that is fine, either way. PC On 5/17/2011 11:42 AM, John C Weaver wrote: NC Drought advisory group, Precipitation total maps for North Carolina indicate widespread 0.5+ inch in a swath from the northern mountains towards parts of the Sand Hills region with a smaller area across the central Coastal Plain ( http : / /water.weather.gov /precip/ -or- http:/ /www.nc - climate.ncsu.edu /mpe departure /). Examination of maps showing 30 -day percent of normal precipitation continue to indicate the coastal counties from Brunswick County northeast towards Dare County having the lowest 30 -day deficits with widespread 10 to 50 percent over this area, particularly across Jones, Craven, and Pamlico Counties where deficits are in the 10 to 25 percent range. Current streamflow conditions are depicted as a wide mix of conditions across the state with a narrow band of above - normal from Mecklenburg County north - northeast to Stokes and Rockingham Counties at the Virginia border (http:Hwaterwatch.usgs.gov/ new / ?m= real &r =nc &w= real %2Cmap). On both sides of this swath, the below - normal streamflows are interspersed among sites in the normal range of conditions with the more visibly widespread below - normal conditions in the Sand Hills region and parts of the Tar River basin. A check of the 28 -day average flows (http: / /waterwatch.usgs.gov/ new /index.php ?m= pa28d &r =nc &w =map) continues to indicate the more widespread below - normal conditions from the eastern Piedmont towards the coast. As of May 15 (Sunday), streamflow conditions indicate 35 percent of sites across North Carolina have percentiles for 7- day average flows falling below the 25th percentile for the calendar date (see graph below). This percentage indicates minor improvement in overall streamflow relative to 20 percent just a week ago. Groundwater conditions are depicted with levels in the normal (6), below normal (3), and much below normal (1) ranges for the 10 observation Blue Ridge, Piedmont, and Sand Hills wells within the NC Climate Response network (http://ogwOl.er.usgs.gov/crn/StateMaps/NC.html). Water levels at the six Coastal Plain observation wells within the same network are currently depicted in the normal range for 1 well, above - normal range for 1 well, below - normal for 3 wells, and much below normal range for 1 wells ( http:// groundwaterwatch .usgs.gov /AWLSites. asp ?S = 345809077301408 &ncd =crn). The well depicted in the much below - normal range is in Jones County in central Coastal Plain where the 30 -day precipitation deficits are in the 10 to 25 percent range. Draft 1 for this week's release was not available as of Tuesday morning. Changes made last week were a very slight expansion of DO across southern Mecklenburg County to accommodate some DO expansion across parts of South Carolina. Last week's discussion included a focus on extending the D1 depiction along the coast northwards to the counties on the north side of the Albemarle Sound. But that decision was delayed to allow for continuing monitoring this week in view of possible rainfall. The 7 -day precipitation total map (http:/ /www.nc - climate.ncsu.edu /mpe departure /) indicates little to no rainfall during the past week in this area. The group may want to re- evaluate an extension of D1 into this area. No long- term streamgages are in this area, but there is one observation well in Elizabeth City (http: // groundwaterwatch .usgs.gov /AWLSites.asp ?S= 361829076163201 &ncd =crn) depicted in the below - normal range with rapid decline in water levels in effect. With the recent rains across parts of the Piedmont and Sand Hills region (particularly on the western extents of the DO and D1), there may be some justification to trim the western extents of these two areas. From my observation of streamflow conditions in this area, we may be getting close to a justification for further trimming or adjustment to the D1 area in the Sand Hills region( ?). Although major improvements have not be noted for this area, do the current conditions warrant a continued D1 depiction or would a switch to a DO (abnormally dry) depiction be more appropriate? Would advocate "status quo" for the western Piedmont/ mountains region as well as the D1 swath along the coast from Brunswick County to Dare County. Comments and opinions welcome... Thanks. JCWeaver ****************************** * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * ** J. Curtis Weaver, Hydrologist, PE USGS North Carolina Water Science Center 3916 Sunset Ridge Road Raleigh, NC 27607 Phone: (919) 571 -4043 H Fax: (919) 571 -4041 Mobile: (919) 830 -6235 E -mail address -- Icweaver(c�usgs.gov Internet address -- http: / /nc.water.usgs.gov/ ****************************** * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * ** -- USDM draft (if available) -- As of Tuesday morning, draft 1 for this week's version was not available. David Miskus, meteorologist with the NOAA NWS Climate Prediction Center in Camp Springs, Maryland, is the USDM author for this week's release. USDM archive (you can select North Carolina from the drop -down box near the top, a quick way to see the last two USDM releases): http: / /drought.unl.edu /dm /archive.html -- Observed precipitation -- Sources of precipitation totals are available from the following: (1) USGS rainfall totals (sorted by county) for the last 7 days at http : / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /current ?tvpe = precip &group kev= county cd (2) State Climate Office of North Carolina at http : / /www.nc - climate.ncsu.edu /mpe departure/ (3) NOAA NWS's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service at http://water.weather.gov/preci shown below pulled from the NOAA NWS's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service at http: / /water.weather.gov /precip/ North Carolina: Current 7 —Day Observed Precipitation Valid at 5/16/2011 1200 UTC— Created 5/17/11 0:09 UTC -- Streamflow -- 4: $ • Current conditions are depicted as real -time, 7 -day, 14 -day, and 28 -day flows available in the WaterWatch series of maps at: http://waterwatch.usgs.gov/classic/?m=real&r=nc&w=real%2Cmap 3 Current conditions... Tuesday, May 17, 2011 08 :30ET WIM MUSIGS Last week's conditions... Tuesday, May 10, 2011 08 :30ET When viewing the USGS WaterWatch streamflow information, you can hover your cursor over a site and a pop -up box Explanation - Percentile classes ......,. X10 Lew 1024 5 -7 76 -90 > � ............ - �: High Idol- ranked l O N ch beds ur - ---- ---- -� Be lbw al P trr� al Al y g % asc.l� aD0VV, mar €Y I r� rm l When viewing the USGS WaterWatch streamflow information, you can hover your cursor over a site and a pop -up box appears with various pieces of information, including the percentile for the current streamflow AND the current percentage of mean and median for the calendar date. Highlighting current flows (May 17 morning) at some selected gaging stations (obtained from http : / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /current / ?type =flow ): Site number Site name (and County) Flow May 10 Current flow (% of) Median May 17 02053200 Potecasi Creek near Union (Hertford) -- 27 cfs 20 cfs 690 29 cfs 02106500 Black River near Tomahawk (Sampson) -- 235 cfs 361 cfs 124% 292 cfs 02085500 Flat River at Bahama (Durham) -- 47 cfs 112 cfs 233% 48 cfs 02096960 Haw River near Bynum (Chatham) -- 462 cfs 409 cfs 1470 278 cfs 02115360 Yadkin River at Enon (Yadkin) -- 1,910 cfs 2,450 cfs 1050 2,340 cfs 02152100 First Broad River near Casar (Cleveland) -- 49 cfs 48 cfs 670 72 cfs 03451500 French Broad River at Asheville (Buncombe) -- 1,900 cfs 1,610 cfs 88% 1,820 cfs 03550000 Valley River at Tomotla (Cherokee) -- 176 cfs 144 cfs 68% 212 cfs Focusing on the 7-day average flows... Visit the WaterWatch pages at http: / /waterwatch.usgs.gov /classic / ?r =nc to get the most recent data for sites of interest. Durations plots for selected individual USGS stations can be accessed at http: / /nc.water.usgs.gov /drought /duration.html The OVERALL 7 -day average flows by HUC map (http:Hwaterwatch.usgs.gov /classic / ?m= pa07d &r= nc &w =pa07d nwc %2Cmap) are depicted in the image below: Monday, May 16, 2011 5 To help provide more detail by major basin, the BELOW NORMAL 7 -day average flows by HUC map (http: / /waterwatch.usgs.gov /classic /index.php ?map type =drvw &state =nc) are depicted in the image below: Monday, May 16, 2011 As of May 15 (Sunday), the graph of 7 -day flow percentiles shown below indicates 35 percent of sites across North Carolina have percentiles for 7 -day average flows falling below the 25th percentile for the calendar date. And 14 percent of sites across North Carolina are shown as having 7 -day average flows below the 10th percentile or reaching new minimum for calendar date. Compared to May 08 (Sunday), the current values indicate minor improvements in overall streamflow conditions during course of the past week, considering 20% of sites across the state were below the 25th percentile and 5% of sites were below 10th percentile and /or reaching new minimum for the calendar date. Below is a graph developed from the 7 -day average flow summary table available at: http: / /waterwater.usgs.gov/ classic / ?m= pa07d &r= nc &w= paO7d %2Ctable i i ii Less than 25th percentile Percentage of sites in North Carolina with 7 -day t Less than 10th percentile indicated percentile range or lowe New min forthe day September JIuly2010 August 2010 o- December Janue 2010 Date Another measure of the streamflow conditions is available from maps of median percentiles for 7 -day average flows for the previous 7 -, 14- 30 -, 60 -, and 90 -day periods updated through May 16 (Monday). These maps are intended to provide some kind of "long- term" index of the streamflow conditions (not available through the USGS WaterWatch pages) that is mapped according to the classification scheme for streamflow used by the U.S. Drought Monitor. Map images (via the above URL) showing the median percentiles for 7 -day average flows for previous 7 and 30 days are shown below. http: / /nc. water. usgs .gov /drought/dm- streamflow.html �h FAII Previous 7 days Monday, May 16, 2011 I Previous 30 days Monday, May 16, 2011 Explanation Unregulated Regulated No - No Drought ( >30 percentile) DO - Abnormally Dry (21 to 30 percentile) 0 ❑ D1 - Moderate Drought (11 to 20 percentile) D2 - Severe Drought (6 to 10 percentile) D3 - Extreme Drought (3 to 5 percentile) D4 - Exceptional Drought (0 to 2 percentile) n/d - Not determined 0 ❑ s The following ArcMap screenshot shows the change in the median percentiles of 7 -day average flows for 7 -day period from last week (with last week's U.S. Drought Monitor in the background). In other words, at a given site, take last week's median percentile and compare it to this week's median percentile. Sites in red indicate a decrease in the median percentile from last week to this week (suggesting a decline in streamflow). Sites in blue indicate an increase in the median percentile from last week to this week (suggesting an improvement decline in streamflow). The size of the circles indicates the general range in percentile increase or decrease (note legend to left of the map). File Edit View Bookmarks Insert Selection Tools Window Help _ r r - + 1:3,860,938 ]I 5 li 7i x Y n s ' ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,; X - Layers -;; ❑ Automated DM maps (short string) -;; ❑Q (weekly change in 7 -day median percentile) ® <all other values> Weekly_c_i "r �itit r� Display Source; Seleckioni — - - - - - ]— a 0! � — I I -- ❑ — 4' Anal .10 l B LT • Drawing -- Ground Water -- Please visit the Climate Response Network page at http: / /groundwaterwatch. usqs. gov /StateMapsNet.asp ?ncd= crn &sc =37 (map shown below) for more information on 9 ground -water conditions at selected USGS observation wells in North Carolina. ok WES' VIRGIFIIA Staurto e. 117 Uniarsauu MIX 'Lo an ~ 9 Oak a k V C R G�, �'a,pp'W§ hnodc Atlantic Bedtle ihta alud ° ¢White !tone Beach Welo Unio� L bUY 60 �, o, o �anial F1 igh EashriIIe Explanation - Percentile class �. ......ee __ New <10 1024 25-75 75-90 >90 New Not el' ..... — - ..... .d. Low hrluch Below Below, Plortnal love lvlu h Dove' High Ranked Shown below are the hydrographs at four selected wells across North Carolina... real -time page for USGS ground water data in NC is available at http: / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /current ?tvpe =qw (MOUNTAINS) NC -144 at Blantyre in Transylvania County (http: / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv / ?site no= 351808082374302 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw) 10 11 USGS 351808082374302 TR -Q 5 HC -144) AT BLANTYRE, H RE OLITH) C 27.99 2129.99 S �: 27.59 GF J 2119.5$ ° } 41 L7 Z t 0 28.$$ GU 4} L 2119,98 m L Q CU } GU is 28,59 O 2118.59 L cu +} ay m L i C C Q G 29.$$ L Apr Apr May May ca 23 39 97 14 2911 2911 2911 2911 - - -- Provisional Data Subject to Revision - - -- 0 Measured depth to water level — Depth to water level 11 (WESTERN PIEDMONT) NC -193, Piedmont RS near Barber in Rowan County (http: / /waterdata .usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv / ?dd cd =01 72019 00003 &format =imq default &site no= 354057080362601 &set to qscale v =0 &begin date = 20070319) 12 USGS 351808082374302 TR -Q 5 (SIC -144) AT BLANTYRE, H (RE OLITH) 2124.6 0 Q 24•$ Q. 4} 2122.0 S N 26•$ p } L) 2120.0 Z 0 5 r-I'- L 28.9 > Q ic 2118.0 '0 + .J [!. C! cu D 2116.$ C6 cu o S2.$ P N 2114.$ r a 34.0 L Jul Sep Now Jan Mar May 2019 2919 2919 2011 2911 2911 — Daily nean depth to water level Period of provisional data Period of approved data (WESTERN PIEDMONT) NC -193, Piedmont RS near Barber in Rowan County (http: / /waterdata .usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv / ?dd cd =01 72019 00003 &format =imq default &site no= 354057080362601 &set to qscale v =0 &begin date = 20070319) 12 13 �GS 35405 0803 01 RO-149 (NC-193) PIEDMONT RS 1 NR BARBER (REGOLIT 7.55 670.45 7.60 670.40 7.65 670.35 z 7.70 670.30 (U (U L m ,-I = 7.75 670.25 L 4J 7.80 670.20 L 4J 4J m 7.85 670.15 4J CL Q C 7.90 670.10 L Apr Apr May May 23 30 07 14 2011 2011 2011 2011 ---- Provisional Data Subject to Revision ---- 13 (EASTERN PIEDMONT) NC -126 at Chapel Hill in Orange County ( http:/ /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv/ ?site no= 355522079043001 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw) 3540570803 01 R! -149 (SIC -193) PIEDMONT RS 1 NR BARBER (RE OLI a 3 52207 043001 OR -0 (NC-126) AT !CHAPEL HILL, 673.9 1 5 +0 0 a' CU .0 5 +5 672.5 Q. 4 45.95 GF 41 �« 6 +0 F Q 672.9 OJ r4 � G D 8 6 +5 671.5 x Q0 7 +9 a 671.9 0 466.35 z 2 7.5 679.5 ay m 45.25 41 4J 8.0 466.25 679.9 r-I L C6 Q Gi +} G 8.5 45,39 669.5 m J H 466.29 L C � G +$ 669.9 L Jul Sep Now Jan Mar Nay 2919 2919 2919 2911 2911 2911 s C — Daily nean depth to water level Period of provisional data Period of approved data C G (EASTERN PIEDMONT) NC -126 at Chapel Hill in Orange County ( http:/ /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv/ ?site no= 355522079043001 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw) 14 USGS 3 52207 043001 OR -0 (NC-126) AT !CHAPEL HILL, H (RE OLITH) m 45.99 466.59 a' 45.95 466.45 F Q .0 45.19 466.49 a 1 45.15 466.35 z 0 45.29 466.39 m 45.25 _ 466.25 CU L' Q DO 'i s 45,39 466.29 L L 45.35 466,15 s C C G 45.4$ 466.1$ 0 Apr Apr May May ca 23 39 97 14 2911 2911 2911 2911 - - -- Provisional data Subject to Revision - - -- - Depth to water level — Estinated depth to water level 14 UJGS 355522079043001 OR -0 (NC -126) AT !CHAPEL HILL, H (RE OLIT�I) 4 cu 4e.e 41 *9 4 0 42.9 L) 43 *9 44 *9 L 45 *$ 4� G >- 46 9 4. 471 *9 of 479 *9 a z 469 *9 c 0 468 *9 +4 467 *9 L 4ti 466 *9 s J * C Jul Sep Now Jan Mar Nay 0 2919 2919 2919 2911 2911 2911 — Daily nean depth to water level — Estinated daily nean depth to water level Period of approved data 1 Equipnent nalfunction Period of provisional data (COASTAL PLAIN) NC -160 near Simpson in Pitt County ( http:/ /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv/ ?site no= 353219077153801 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw) 15 16 USGS 35 1907 53 01 PI-532 (NC-160) NR IMP ON, NC (SURFICIAL) C 2.00 54.00 2.50 CU 53.50 U 3.00 Lo I z 0 53.00 cu 4 0 3.50 D (U L m 52.50 L 4.00 D CU O 52.00 CU 1 4.50 L CU 51.50 C6 5.00 a Apr Apr May May L 23 30 07 14 0 2011 2011 2011 2011 ---- Provisional Data Subject to Revision - - -- - Depth to water level A Value exceeds "standard difference" threshold. 16 17 USGS 35 1907 53 01 PI -532 (NC-160) NR SIMPSON, NC (SURFICIAL) O 4ti 1 +$ 5555 +9 Q- 2 ry �y .0 54 +$ S 41 o% 3 +0 +0 +0 �} 0 55 +0 51 0 +} +$ i a 6 +9 59 +$ }y 7 m -W +9 49 +9 L C6 8 Gi P p +9 48 +9 s 9 H o +$ Jul Sep Now Jan Mar May C L 2919 2919 2919 2911 2811 2811 0 — Daily nean depth to water level Period of approved data Period of provisional data — Lowest recorded water level prior to MY2911 (8 +97 ft Oct 23,24, 2997) 17