HomeMy WebLinkAbout20051457 Ver 1_Re USGS streamflow and ground-water conditions in NC through Monday May 16 2.msg_20110517Strickland, Bev
From: Peter Corrigan [Peter. Corrigan @noaa.gov]
Sent: Tuesday, May 17, 2011 12:25 PM
To: John C Weaver
Cc: Yonts, Woody; Ashley. E.Hatchell @usace. army. miI; Brian. Cullen @noaa.gov; Haines, Brian; Lane, David;
Owen, Debra; eric.seymour @noaa.gov; gagalleh @duke- energy.com; garry_grabow @ncsu.edu;
George. Mathews @noaa.gov; Brady, Harold M.; Kritzer, Jamie; jeff.orrock @noaa.gov; Prevette, Jim;
Hoffmann, Jucilene; Lara.Pagano @noaa.gov; Peele, Linwood; Michael .A.Young @saw02.usace. army. miI;
Michael. Moneypenny @noaa.gov; Orbon, Mike; Sarwar, Neelufa; Patricia. Tanner @noaa.gov;
Richard. Neuherz @noaa.gov; rwall @ncem.org; ryan_boyles @ncsu.edu; Young, Sarah-
. Hamill @noaa.gov, Fransen, Tom; Reeder, Tom; tony_dorn @nass.usda.gov; Lawrence, Torey; Cox,
Vernon N; Munden, Wayne; Brian Fuchs; Allison.Wash @va.usda.gov
Subject: Re: USGS streamflow and ground -water conditions in NC through Monday, May 16
Attachments: peter_corrigan.vcf
Curtis, et al.
Will not be on the call today due to shift work. But status quo at the very least in the NW corner of NC. Only
have 1 county in DO at this time, Rockingham. At least 1 -2 inches fell in that county past 7 days. If DM
author wants to eliminate DO there that is fine, either way.
PC
On 5/17/2011 11:42 AM, John C Weaver wrote:
NC Drought advisory group,
Precipitation total maps for North Carolina indicate widespread 0.5+ inch in a swath from the northern mountains towards
parts of the Sand Hills region with a smaller area across the central Coastal Plain ( http : / /water.weather.gov /precip/ -or-
http:/ /www.nc - climate.ncsu.edu /mpe departure /). Examination of maps showing 30 -day percent of normal precipitation
continue to indicate the coastal counties from Brunswick County northeast towards Dare County having the lowest 30 -day
deficits with widespread 10 to 50 percent over this area, particularly across Jones, Craven, and Pamlico Counties where
deficits are in the 10 to 25 percent range.
Current streamflow conditions are depicted as a wide mix of conditions across the state with a narrow band of above -
normal from Mecklenburg County north - northeast to Stokes and Rockingham Counties at the Virginia border
(http:Hwaterwatch.usgs.gov/ new / ?m= real &r =nc &w= real %2Cmap). On both sides of this swath, the below - normal
streamflows are interspersed among sites in the normal range of conditions with the more visibly widespread below -
normal conditions in the Sand Hills region and parts of the Tar River basin. A check of the 28 -day average flows
(http: / /waterwatch.usgs.gov/ new /index.php ?m= pa28d &r =nc &w =map) continues to indicate the more widespread below -
normal conditions from the eastern Piedmont towards the coast.
As of May 15 (Sunday), streamflow conditions indicate 35 percent of sites across North Carolina have percentiles for 7-
day average flows falling below the 25th percentile for the calendar date (see graph below). This percentage indicates
minor improvement in overall streamflow relative to 20 percent just a week ago.
Groundwater conditions are depicted with levels in the normal (6), below normal (3), and much below normal (1) ranges
for the 10 observation Blue Ridge, Piedmont, and Sand Hills wells within the NC Climate Response network
(http://ogwOl.er.usgs.gov/crn/StateMaps/NC.html). Water levels at the six Coastal Plain observation wells within the
same network are currently depicted in the normal range for 1 well, above - normal range for 1 well, below - normal for 3
wells, and much below normal range for 1 wells
( http:// groundwaterwatch .usgs.gov /AWLSites. asp ?S = 345809077301408 &ncd =crn). The well depicted in the much below -
normal range is in Jones County in central Coastal Plain where the 30 -day precipitation deficits are in the 10 to 25 percent
range.
Draft 1 for this week's release was not available as of Tuesday morning. Changes made last week were a very slight
expansion of DO across southern Mecklenburg County to accommodate some DO expansion across parts of South
Carolina.
Last week's discussion included a focus on extending the D1 depiction along the coast northwards to the counties on the
north side of the Albemarle Sound. But that decision was delayed to allow for continuing monitoring this week in view of
possible rainfall. The 7 -day precipitation total map (http:/ /www.nc - climate.ncsu.edu /mpe departure /) indicates little to no
rainfall during the past week in this area. The group may want to re- evaluate an extension of D1 into this area. No long-
term streamgages are in this area, but there is one observation well in Elizabeth City
(http: // groundwaterwatch .usgs.gov /AWLSites.asp ?S= 361829076163201 &ncd =crn) depicted in the below - normal range
with rapid decline in water levels in effect.
With the recent rains across parts of the Piedmont and Sand Hills region (particularly on the western extents of the DO
and D1), there may be some justification to trim the western extents of these two areas. From my observation of
streamflow conditions in this area, we may be getting close to a justification for further trimming or adjustment to the D1
area in the Sand Hills region( ?). Although major improvements have not be noted for this area, do the current conditions
warrant a continued D1 depiction or would a switch to a DO (abnormally dry) depiction be more appropriate?
Would advocate "status quo" for the western Piedmont/ mountains region as well as the D1 swath along the coast from
Brunswick County to Dare County.
Comments and opinions welcome...
Thanks.
JCWeaver
****************************** * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * **
J. Curtis Weaver, Hydrologist, PE
USGS North Carolina Water Science Center
3916 Sunset Ridge Road
Raleigh, NC 27607
Phone: (919) 571 -4043 H Fax: (919) 571 -4041
Mobile: (919) 830 -6235
E -mail address -- Icweaver(c�usgs.gov
Internet address -- http: / /nc.water.usgs.gov/
****************************** * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * **
-- USDM draft (if available) --
As of Tuesday morning, draft 1 for this week's version was not available. David Miskus, meteorologist with the NOAA
NWS Climate Prediction Center in Camp Springs, Maryland, is the USDM author for this week's release.
USDM archive (you can select North Carolina from the drop -down box near the top, a quick way to see the last two USDM
releases):
http: / /drought.unl.edu /dm /archive.html
-- Observed precipitation --
Sources of precipitation totals are available from the following:
(1) USGS rainfall totals (sorted by county) for the last 7 days at
http : / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /current ?tvpe = precip &group kev= county cd
(2) State Climate Office of North Carolina at http : / /www.nc - climate.ncsu.edu /mpe departure/
(3) NOAA NWS's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service at http://water.weather.gov/preci
shown below pulled from the NOAA NWS's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service at
http: / /water.weather.gov /precip/
North Carolina: Current 7 —Day Observed Precipitation
Valid at 5/16/2011 1200 UTC— Created 5/17/11 0:09 UTC
-- Streamflow --
4: $ •
Current conditions are depicted as real -time, 7 -day, 14 -day, and 28 -day flows available in the WaterWatch series of maps
at:
http://waterwatch.usgs.gov/classic/?m=real&r=nc&w=real%2Cmap
3
Current conditions...
Tuesday, May 17, 2011 08 :30ET
WIM
MUSIGS
Last week's conditions...
Tuesday, May 10, 2011 08 :30ET
When viewing the USGS WaterWatch streamflow information, you can hover your cursor over a site and a pop -up box
Explanation - Percentile classes
......,.
X10
Lew
1024 5 -7 76 -90 >
�
............ - �: High Idol- ranked l
O N ch beds ur
- ---- ---- -�
Be lbw al P trr� al Al y g % asc.l� aD0VV,
mar €Y I r� rm l
When viewing the USGS WaterWatch streamflow information, you can hover your cursor over a site and a pop -up box
appears with various pieces of information, including the percentile for the current streamflow AND the current percentage
of mean and median for the calendar date.
Highlighting current flows (May 17 morning) at some selected gaging stations (obtained from
http : / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /current / ?type =flow ):
Site number
Site name (and County)
Flow May 10
Current
flow
(% of)
Median May 17
02053200
Potecasi Creek near Union (Hertford) --
27
cfs
20
cfs
690
29 cfs
02106500
Black River near Tomahawk (Sampson) --
235
cfs
361
cfs
124%
292 cfs
02085500
Flat River at Bahama (Durham) --
47
cfs
112
cfs
233%
48 cfs
02096960
Haw River near Bynum (Chatham) --
462
cfs
409
cfs
1470
278 cfs
02115360
Yadkin River at Enon (Yadkin) --
1,910
cfs
2,450
cfs
1050
2,340 cfs
02152100
First Broad River near Casar (Cleveland) --
49
cfs
48
cfs
670
72 cfs
03451500
French Broad River at Asheville (Buncombe) --
1,900
cfs
1,610
cfs
88%
1,820 cfs
03550000
Valley River at Tomotla (Cherokee) --
176
cfs
144
cfs
68%
212 cfs
Focusing on the 7-day average flows...
Visit the WaterWatch pages at http: / /waterwatch.usgs.gov /classic / ?r =nc to get the most recent data for sites of interest.
Durations plots for selected individual USGS stations can be accessed at http: / /nc.water.usgs.gov /drought /duration.html
The OVERALL 7 -day average flows by HUC map
(http:Hwaterwatch.usgs.gov /classic / ?m= pa07d &r= nc &w =pa07d nwc %2Cmap) are depicted in the image below:
Monday, May 16, 2011
5
To help provide more detail by major basin, the BELOW NORMAL 7 -day average flows by HUC map
(http: / /waterwatch.usgs.gov /classic /index.php ?map type =drvw &state =nc) are depicted in the image below:
Monday, May 16, 2011
As of May 15 (Sunday), the graph of 7 -day flow percentiles shown below indicates 35 percent of sites across North
Carolina have percentiles for 7 -day average flows falling below the 25th percentile for the calendar date. And 14 percent
of sites across North Carolina are shown as having 7 -day average flows below the 10th percentile or reaching new
minimum for calendar date.
Compared to May 08 (Sunday), the current values indicate minor improvements in overall streamflow conditions during
course of the past week, considering 20% of sites across the state were below the 25th percentile and 5% of sites were
below 10th percentile and /or reaching new minimum for the calendar date.
Below is a graph developed from the 7 -day average flow summary table available at:
http: / /waterwater.usgs.gov/ classic / ?m= pa07d &r= nc &w= paO7d %2Ctable
i
i
ii
Less than 25th percentile Percentage of sites in North Carolina with 7 -day t
Less than 10th percentile indicated percentile range or lowe
New min forthe day
September JIuly2010 August 2010 o- December Janue
2010
Date
Another measure of the streamflow conditions is available from maps of median percentiles for 7 -day average flows for
the previous 7 -, 14- 30 -, 60 -, and 90 -day periods updated through May 16 (Monday). These maps are intended to
provide some kind of "long- term" index of the streamflow conditions (not available through the USGS WaterWatch pages)
that is mapped according to the classification scheme for streamflow used by the U.S. Drought Monitor. Map images (via
the above URL) showing the median percentiles for 7 -day average flows for previous 7 and 30 days are shown below.
http: / /nc. water. usgs .gov /drought/dm- streamflow.html
�h
FAII
Previous 7 days
Monday, May 16, 2011
I
Previous 30 days
Monday, May 16, 2011
Explanation
Unregulated
Regulated
No - No Drought ( >30 percentile)
DO - Abnormally Dry (21 to 30 percentile)
0
❑
D1 - Moderate Drought (11 to 20 percentile)
D2 - Severe Drought (6 to 10 percentile)
D3 - Extreme Drought (3 to 5 percentile)
D4 - Exceptional Drought (0 to 2 percentile)
n/d - Not determined
0
❑
s
The following ArcMap screenshot shows the change in the median percentiles of 7 -day average flows for 7 -day period
from last week (with last week's U.S. Drought Monitor in the background). In other words, at a given site, take last
week's median percentile and compare it to this week's median percentile. Sites in red indicate a decrease in the median
percentile from last week to this week (suggesting a decline in streamflow). Sites in blue indicate an increase in the
median percentile from last week to this week (suggesting an improvement decline in streamflow). The size of the circles
indicates the general range in percentile increase or decrease (note legend to left of the map).
File Edit View Bookmarks Insert Selection Tools Window Help
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- Layers
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-;; ❑Q (weekly change in 7 -day median percentile)
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-- Ground Water --
Please visit the Climate Response Network page at
http: / /groundwaterwatch. usqs. gov /StateMapsNet.asp ?ncd= crn &sc =37 (map shown below) for more information on
9
ground -water conditions at selected USGS observation wells in North Carolina.
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data in NC is available at http: / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /current ?tvpe =qw
(MOUNTAINS) NC -144 at Blantyre in Transylvania County
(http: / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv / ?site no= 351808082374302 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw)
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----
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13
(EASTERN PIEDMONT) NC -126 at Chapel Hill in Orange County
( http:/ /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv/ ?site no= 355522079043001 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw)
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14
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(COASTAL PLAIN) NC -160 near Simpson in Pitt County
( http:/ /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv/ ?site no= 353219077153801 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw)
15
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16
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17