HomeMy WebLinkAbout20051457 Ver 1_Re USGS streamflow and ground-water conditions in NC through Monday June 20 4.msg_20110621Strickland, Bev
From:
Peter Corrigan [Peter. Corrigan @noaa.gov]
Sent:
Tuesday, June 21, 2011 12:03 PM
To:
John C Weaver
Cc:
Yonts, Woody; Ashley. E.Hatchell @usace. army. miI; Brian. Cullen @noaa.gov; Haines, Brian; Lane, David;
Owen, Debra; eric.seymour @noaa.gov; gagalleh @duke- energy.com; garry_grabow @ncsu.edu;
George. Mathews @noaa.gov; Brady, Harold M.; Kritzer, Jamie; jeff.orrock @noaa.gov; Prevette, Jim;
Hoffmann, Jucilene; Lara.Pagano @noaa.gov; Peele, Linwood; Michael .A.Young @saw02.usace. army. miI;
Michael. Moneypenny @noaa.gov; Orbon, Mike; Sarwar, Neelufa; Patricia. Tanner @noaa.gov;
Richard. Neuherz @noaa.gov; rwall @ncem.org; ryan_boyles @ncsu.edu; Young, Sarah;
Todd. Hamill @noaa.gov, Fransen, Tom; Reeder, Tom; tony_dorn @nass.usda.gov; Lawrence, Torey; Cox,
Vernon N; Munden, Wayne; Brian Fuchs; Allison.Wash @va.usda.gov; Kathleen Carroll; Darin Figurskey
Subject:
Re: USGS streamflow and ground -water conditions in NC through Monday, June 20
Attachments:
peter_corrigan.vcf
Curtis, Woody, et al,
will not be on call today but recommend status quo in NW NC as per Draft 1 of USDM. Though the trend
is clearly not favorable and slight westward expansion of DO may be warranted soon. Right now
DO only in 2 of my counties, Caswell and Rockingham but Stokes getting pretty dry too. Danbury
only 0.65" this month.
PC
On 6/21/2011 11:40 AM, John C Weaver wrote:
NC Drought advisory group,
Rainfall amounts indicated on the precipitation maps for the past week were mixed across North Carolina. The maps
indicate the much of the mountains region and part of the central Coastal Plain received at least 0.5+ inch rainfall during
the period ( http : / /water.weather.gov /precip/ -or- http : / /www.nc - climate.ncsu.edu /mpe departure /). Of note, rainfall totals
exceeding 2 inches are indicated along the NC /Tenn border as well as a small part of the lower Pamlico Sound over
Carteret, Craven, and Pamlico Counties. The precipitation maps also indicate that little to no rainfall fell in the Sand Hills,
eastern Piedmont, and western Coastal Plain regions, and parts of the northern Coastal Plain.
Streamflow conditions in the eastern half of the state as noted on the real -time maps
(http:Hwaterwatch.usgs.gov/ new / ?m= real &r =nc &w= real %2Cmap) are commonly in the "less than 10th percentile" range
along with a small number of sites with flows at record low for the calendar date. An area of streamflow conditions
depicted in the normal range continues in the northwest corner and along the NC/Tenn border. Examination of the 28 -day
average flows (http: / /waterwatch.usgs.gov/ new /index.php ?m= pa28d &r =nc &w =map) echoes widespread "less than 10th
percentile" and record low for the calendar date across much of eastern North Carolina.
As of June 19 (Sunday), streamflow conditions indicate 55 percent of sites across North Carolina have percentiles for 7-
day average flows falling below the 25th percentile for the calendar date (see graph below). This percentage suggests
minor improvements in overall streamflow relative to 62 percent just a week ago.
As noted in past weeks, very little change seems to be occurring in the groundwater depictions for the 10 observation
wells in the Blue Ridge, Piedmont, and Sand Hills regions within the NC Climate Response network
( http:// ogw01. er. usgs .gov /crn /StateMaps /NC.html). Among these 10 wells, groundwater conditions continue to be
depicted at levels in the normal (7), below normal (2), and much below normal (1) ranges.
Water levels at the six Coastal Plain observation wells within the same network are currently depicted in the below - normal
range for 1 wells, much below - normal for 2 wells, and record low for the month at 3 wells. The wells with the record low
for the month (June) are:
Comfort in Jones County (http: // qroundwaterwatch .usgs.gov /AWLSites.asp ?S= 345809077301408 &ncd =crn)
Hoke in Washington County (http: // qroundwaterwatch .usgs.gov /AWLSites.asp ?S= 354418076463601 &ncd =crn)
Elizabeth City in Pasquotank County (http: // qroundwaterwatch .usgs.gov /AWLSites.asp ?S= 361829076163201 &ncd =crn)
Draft 1 for this week's release was available as of Monday afternoon with no changes yet indicated for North Carolina.
This week's USDM author is awaiting input from the NC group following the weekly conference call. Changes made last
week were the expansion of DO across the headwaters of the French Broad River basin in the mountains, minor
expansions of D1 in the southern Coastal Plain and northeast Piedmont, and inland expansion of D2 across parts of the
Coastal Plain.
I'm becoming more concerned that drought depictions in the eastern Piedmont, Sand Hills, and western Coastal Plain
regions are becoming understated given the widespread streamflows in the "less than 10th percentile" range. One
immediate thought is to expand the D1 into the remaining DO area in the upper Cape Fear and Neuse basins. Based on
recent rainfall patterns, some restraint was used last week in expanding D1 across parts of the upper Neuse.
The second thought is to suggest the group consider further inland D2 expansion towards the eastern Piedmont in the
next week or so if no substantial rainfall materializes across central areas of North Carolina.
Comments and opinions welcome...
Thanks.
JCWeaver
****************************** * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * **
J. Curtis Weaver, Hydrologist, PE
USGS North Carolina Water Science Center
3916 Sunset Ridge Road
Raleigh, NC 27607
Phone: (919) 571 -4043 H Fax: (919) 571 -4041
Mobile: (919) 830 -6235
E -mail address -- Icweaver(c�usgs.gov
Internet address --.http://nc.water.usgs.gov
****************************** * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * **
-- USDM draft (if available) --
As of Monday afternoon, draft 1 for this week's version was available with no changes yet indicated for North Carolina.
Brian Fuchs, climatologist with the National Drought Mitigation Center in Lincoln, Nebraska, is again the USDM author for
this week's release. In the email accompanying the first draft, he made no specific comment concerning North Carolina
(he is awaiting input following the NC telecom), but did offer the following comment concerning South Carolina:
3) South Carolina: I heard a message of status quo for the week, but really am seeing evidence to degrade the areas
along the coast. The indicators are in the D3 /D4 range and we have a lot of D1 /D2 showing yet.
USDM archive (you can select North Carolina from the drop -down box near the top, a quick way to see the last two USDM
releases):
htto:H drouaht.unl.edu /dm /archive.html
-- Observed precipitation --
Sources of precipitation totals are available from the following:
(1) USGS rainfall totals (sorted by county) for the last 7 days at
http : / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /current ?tvpe= precip &group kev= county cd
(2) State Climate Office of North Carolina at http : / /www.nc - climate.ncsu.edu /mpe departure/
(3) NOAA NWS's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service at http://water.weather.gov/preci
shown below pulled from the NOAA NWS's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service at
http : / /water.weather.gov /precip/
North Carolina: Current 7 —Day Observed Precipitation
Valid at 6/20/2011 1200 UTC— Created 6/20/11 23:56 UTC
-- Streamflow --
4: 110,11114116TIMMIT110111111111
Current conditions are depicted as real -time, 7 -day, 14 -day, and 28 -day flows available in the WaterWatch series of maps
at:
http://waterwatch.usgs.gov/classic/?m=real&r=nc&w=real%2Cmap
Current conditions...
4
Tuesday, June 21, 2011 09 :30ET
WIM
MUSIGS
Last week's conditions...
Tuesday, June 14, 2011 08 :30ET
When viewing the USGS WaterWatch streamflow information, you can hover your cursor over a site and a pop -up box
appears with various pieces of information, including the percentile for the current streamflow AND the current percentage
Explanation - Percentile classes
......,.
Lew X10
1 5 -7 r 6 -90 >
. �
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,
4OW Ahpvp MUch abO �8l tral . rmal
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When viewing the USGS WaterWatch streamflow information, you can hover your cursor over a site and a pop -up box
appears with various pieces of information, including the percentile for the current streamflow AND the current percentage
of mean and median for the calendar date.
Highlighting current flows (June 21 morning) at some selected gaging stations (obtained from
http : / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /current / ?type =flow ):
Site number
Site name (and County)
Flow Jun 14
Current
flow
(% of)
Median Jun 21
02053200
Potecasi Creek near Union (Hertford) --
6.7
cfs
3.2
cfs
190
17 cfs
02106500
Black River near Tomahawk (Sampson) --
16
cfs
14
cfs
4.30
327 cfs
02085500
Flat River at Bahama (Durham) --
20
cfs
7.0
cfs
27%
26 cfs
02096960
Haw River near Bynum (Chatham) --
271
cfs
107
cfs
330
325 cfs
02115360
Yadkin River at Enon (Yadkin) --
1,890
cfs
1,270
cfs
62%
2,039 cfs
02152100
First Broad River near Casar (Cleveland) --
28
cfs
31
cfs
480
64 cfs
03451500
French Broad River at Asheville (Buncombe) --
1,070
cfs
1,060
cfs
720
1,480 cfs
03550000
Valley River at Tomotla (Cherokee) --
93
cfs
106
cfs
760
139 cfs
Focusing on the 7-day average flows...
Visit the WaterWatch pages at http: / /waterwatch.usgs.gov /classic / ?r =nc to get the most recent data for sites of interest.
Durations plots for selected individual USGS stations can be accessed at http: / /nc.water.usgs.gov /drought /duration.html
The OVERALL 7 -day average flows by HUC map
(http:Hwaterwatch.usgs.gov /classic / ?m= pa07d &r= nc &w =pa07d nwc %2Cmap) are depicted in the image below:
Monday, June 20, 2011
6
To help provide more detail by major basin, the BELOW NORMAL 7 -day average flows by HUC map
(http: / /waterwatch.usgs.gov /classic /index.php ?map type =drvw &state =nc) are depicted in the image below:
Monday, June 20, 2011
As of June 19 (Sunday), the graph of 7 -day flow percentiles shown below indicates 55 percent of sites across North
Carolina have percentiles for 7 -day average flows falling below the 25th percentile for the calendar date. And 30 percent
of sites across North Carolina are shown as having 7 -day average flows below the 10th percentile or reaching new
minimum for calendar date. The percentage of sites with 7 -day average flows falling below the 25th percentile "topped
out" at 48 percent on June 17 (Friday).
Compared to June 12 (Sunday), the current values indicate minor improvement in overall streamflow conditions during
course of the past week, considering 62% of sites across the state were below the 25th percentile and 31 % of sites were
below 10th percentile and /or reaching new minimum for the calendar date.
Below is a graph developed from the 7 -day average flow summary table available at:
http: / /waterwater.usgs.gov/ classic / ?m= pa07d &r= nc &w= paO7d %2Ctable
i
i
If i
Less than 25th percentile Percentage of sites in North Carolina with 7 -day t
Less than 10th percentile indicated percentile range or lowe
New ruin forthe day
August - -, - - --
2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2011
Date
Another measure of the streamflow conditions is available from maps of median percentiles for 7 -day average flows for
the previous 7 -, 14- 30 -, 60 -, and 90 -day periods updated through June 20 (Monday). These maps are intended to
provide some kind of "long- term" index of the streamflow conditions (not available through the USGS WaterWatch pages)
that is mapped according to the classification scheme for streamflow used by the U.S. Drought Monitor. Map images (via
the above URL) showing the median percentiles for 7 -day average flows for previous 7 and 30 days are shown below.
http: / /nc. water. usgs .gov /drought/dm- streamflow.html
8
L
L
Explanation
No - No Drought ( >30 percentile)
DO - Abnormally Dry (21 to 30 percentile)
D1 - Moderate Drought (11 to 20 percentile)
D2 - Severe Drought (6 to 10 percentile)
D3 - Extreme Drought (3 to 5 percentile)
D4 - Exceptional Drought (0 to 2 percentile)
n/d - Not determined
Unregulated Regulated
6
IM
0
❑
0
Em
IF
E
a
IM
0
The following ArcMap screenshot shows the change in the median percentiles of 7 -day average flows for 7 -day period
from last week (with last week's U.S. Drought Monitor in the background). In other words, at a given site, take last
week's median percentile and compare it to this week's median percentile. Sites in red indicate a decrease in the median
percentile from last week to this week (suggesting a decline in streamflow). Sites in blue indicate an increase in the
median percentile from last week to this week (suggesting an improvement decline in streamflow). The size of the circles
indicates the general range in percentile increase or decrease (note legend to left of the map).
File Edit View Bookmarks Insert Selection Tools Window Help
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Display I Source; Selection rr
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Drawing Anal _ �0___
-- Ground Water --
B F U A W -
Please visit the Climate Response Network page at
http: / /groundwaterwatch. usqs. gov /StateMapsNet.asp ?ncd= crn &sc =37 (map shown below) for more information on
10
10 to 25 percentile increase
5 to 10 percentile increase
0 to 5 percentile increase
0
No percentile change
0 to 5 percentile decrease
5 to 10 percentile decrease
10 to 25 percentile decrease
25 to 50 percentile decrease
Greater than 50 percentile decrease
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Display I Source; Selection rr
t
Drawing Anal _ �0___
-- Ground Water --
B F U A W -
Please visit the Climate Response Network page at
http: / /groundwaterwatch. usqs. gov /StateMapsNet.asp ?ncd= crn &sc =37 (map shown below) for more information on
10
ground -water conditions at selected USGS observation wells in North Carolina.
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Shown below are the hydrographs at four selected wells across North Carolina... real -time page for USGS ground water
data in NC is available at http: / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /current ?tvpe =qw
(MOUNTAINS) NC -144 at Blantyre in Transylvania County
(http: / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv / ?site no= 351808082374302 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw)
11
12
USES
351 080823 '430
TR-065
(NC-144) AT BLANTYRE, NC
(REGOLITH)
27.00
2120.00
4J
CU
CU
Q.
Q
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27.50
4J
2119.50
z
28.00
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2119.00
m
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CU
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28.50
L
2118.50
CU
4mJ
4J
C
CL
CS
O
29.00
May
Jun
Jun Jun
28
04
11 18
2011
2011
2011 2011
---- Provisional Data Subject to Revision ----
12
(WESTERN PIEDMONT) NC -193, Piedmont RS near Barber in Rowan County
(http: / /waterdata .usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv / ?dd cd =01 72019 00003 &format =imq default &site no= 354057080362601 &set to
qscale v =0 &begin date = 20070319)
13
USES
351 0808237430
TR -065
(SIC -144) AT
BLANTYRE, HC
(RE OLITH
a
0
25 +9
2122 +9
J
cu
Q
Q.
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26 +9
2121 +9
S
4
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27 +9
2126 +9
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28 +9
2119 +9
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z
L
29 +9
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32 +$
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33 +9
2114 +9
3
c
H
a
34 +6
L
Jul Sep
Now
Jan
Mar May
2919 2919
2919
2911
2911 2911
— Daily nean depth to
water level Period of provisional
data
Period of approved data
(WESTERN PIEDMONT) NC -193, Piedmont RS near Barber in Rowan County
(http: / /waterdata .usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv / ?dd cd =01 72019 00003 &format =imq default &site no= 354057080362601 &set to
qscale v =0 &begin date = 20070319)
13
14
SGS 354057080362601
RO-149 (NC-193)
PIEDMONT RS 1 NR
BARBER
(REGOLITI
7.70
670.30
7.80
670.20
CU
Q
7.90
670.10
8.00
670.00
8.10
669.90
L
8.20
669.80
lu
8.30
669.70
L
CU
8.40
669.60
C
CL
8.50
669.50
0
May
Jun
Jun
Jun
28
04
11
18
2011
2011
2011
2011
---- Provisional Data Subject to Revision
----
14
(EASTERN PIEDMONT) NC -126 at Chapel Hill in Orange County
( http:/ /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv/ ?site no= 355522079043001 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw)
SGS 3540 x'0803 01 Rte -149 (SIC -193) PIEDMONT RS
1 NR BARBER (RE OLIT
a
6.00
672.00
1
0
(RE t LITH)
44.70
CU
466.80
4J
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671,50
m
y
7.00
671.00
466.70
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44.90
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7.50
466.60
670.50
0
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670.00
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45.10
J
H
466.40
r
0
a
9.00
669.00
L
GU
Jul Sep Now Jan Mar
May
2010 2010 2010 2011 2011
2011
466.30
— Daily nean depth to water level Period of provisional data
Period of approved data
(EASTERN PIEDMONT) NC -126 at Chapel Hill in Orange County
( http:/ /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv/ ?site no= 355522079043001 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw)
15
USGS
355522079 143001
OR -069 (NC-126) AT CHAPEL
HILL, H
(RE t LITH)
44.70
466.80
44.80
466.70
44.90
466.60
z
�y
45.00
466.50
y
�F
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+4
y
45.10
466.40
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45.20
466.30
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45.30
466.20
+4
CL
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C
�
d
L
L
45.40
466.10
0
May
Jun Jun
Jun
28
04 11
18
2011
2011 2011
2011
- - -- Provisional Data Subject to Revision - - --
15
(COASTAL PLAIN) NC -160 near Simpson in Pitt County
( http:/ /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv/ ?site no= 353219077153801 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw)
16
USGS 3555 079043001 OR -069 (NC -126) AT CHAPEL HILL, H (RE t LITH)
a
40.0
m
Q
471.0
Q.
41.E
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�«
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Jul Sep Now Jan Mar May
2919 2010 2919 2911 2911 2911
— Daily nean depth to water level Period of provisional data
Period of approved data
(COASTAL PLAIN) NC -160 near Simpson in Pitt County
( http:/ /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv/ ?site no= 353219077153801 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw)
16
17
USES 353219077153801 PI-532 (NC-160) NR IMP ON, NC (SURFICIAL,)
C
4.0
52.0
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rl
5.0
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CU
49.5
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7.0
CU
49.0
C6
7.5
May Jun Jun Jun
L
28 04 11 18
Lo
2011 2011 2011 2011
---- Provisional Data Subject to Revision - - --
- Depth to water level
A Value exceeds "standard difference" threshold.
17
18
USGS 353 19077153801
PI -532
(NC-160)
NR SIMPSON, N URFI IAL)
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Jul
Sep
Now
Jan
Mar May
C
L
2919
2919
2919
2911
2811 2911
0
— Daily
nean depth to water level
Period
of approved data
Period
of provisional
data
— Lowest
recorded water
level
prior to
MY2911 (8 +97 ft Oct 23,24, 2997)
18