20051457 Ver 1_Re USGS streamflow and ground-water conditions in NC through Monday June 20 2.msg_20110621

Strickland, Bev
From:
eric.seymour @noaa.gov
Sent:
Tuesday, June 21, 2011 12:43 PM
To:
John C Weaver
Cc:
Yonts, Woody; Ashley. E.Hatchell @usace. army. miI; Brian. CuIlen @noaa.gov; Haines, Brian; Lane, David;
Owen, Debra; gagalleh @duke- energy.comI garry_grabow @ncsu.edu; George.Mathews @noaa.gov;
Brady, Harold M.; Kritzer, Jamie; jcweaver @usgs.gov; jeff.orrock @noaa.gov; Prevette, Jim; Hoffmann,
Jucilene; Lara.Pagano @noaa.gov; Peele, Linwood; Michael .A.Young @saw02.usace. army. miI -
Michael. Moneypenny @noaa.gov; Orbon, Mike; Sarwar, Neelufa; Patricia.Tanner @noaa.gov-
Peter. Corrigan @noaa.gov; Richard. Neuherz @noaa.gov; rwall @ncem.org; ryan_boyles @ncsu.edu;
Young, Sarah; Todd.Hamill @noaa.gov; Fransen, Tom; Reeder, Tom; tony_dorn @nass.usda.gov;
Lawrence, Torey; Cox, Vernon N; Munden, Wayne; Yonts, Woody; Brian Fuchs;
Allison.Wash @va.usda.gov; Kathleen Carroll; Darin Figurskey
Subject:
Re: USGS streamflow and ground -water conditions in NC through Monday, June 20
Curtis, Woody et al,
I will not able to be on the call today, but I agree with what Curtis has put together
for my part of northeastern NC. Rainfall over the last week has been minimal and as typical
with summer convection very scattered. Over the last 14 days we did see some bands of rain
across portions of the Chowan basin, but not much in the last 7 days. Could easily see
expanding the D2 further west toward Gaters and Bertie counties or holding on one more week
to see if any appreciable rain fall does occur. But based upon the current forecast, the
chances for rain seem low over the next week.
Eric
- - - -- Original Message - - - --
From: John C Weaver <jcweaver @usgs.gov>
Date: Tuesday, June 21, 2011 11:41 am
Subject: USGS streamflow and ground -water conditions in NC through Monday, June 20
To: "Yonts, Woody" <woody.yonts @ncdenr.gov>
Cc: Ashley .E.Hatchell @usace.army.mil, Brian.Cullen @noaa.gov, Brian.Haines @ncdenr.gov,
david.lane @ncdenr.gov, debra.owen @ncdenr.gov, eric.seymour @noaa.gov, gagalleh @duke -
energy.com, garry_grabow @ncsu.edu, George.Mathews @noaa.gov, harold.m.brady @ncdenr.gov,
jamie.kritzer @ncdenr.gov, jcweaver @usgs.gov, jeff.orrock @noaa.gov, jim.prevette @ncdenr.gov,
jucilene.hoffmann @ncdenr.gov, Lara.Pagano @noaa.gov, linwood.peele @ncdenr.gov,
Michael .A.Young @saw02.usace.army.mil, Michael.Moneypenny @noaa.gov, mike.orbon @ncdenr.gov,
neelufa.sarwar @ncdenr.gov, Patricia.Tanner @noaa.gov, Peter.Corrigan @noaa.gov,
Richard.Neuherz @noaa.gov, rwall @ncem.org, ryan_boyles @ncsu.edu, sarah.young @ncdenr.gov,
Todd.Hamill @noaa.gov, Tom.Fransen @ncdenr.gov, tom.reeder @ncdenr.gov, tony_dorn @nass.usda.gov,
Torey_Lawrence @nass.usda.gov, Vernon.Cox @ncagr.gov, Wayne.Munden @ncdenr.gov,
woody.yonts @ncdenr.gov, Brian Fuchs <bfuchs @UNLNOTES.UNL.EDU>, Allison.Wash @va.usda.gov,
Kathleen Carroll <Kathleen.Carroll @noaa.gov>, D arin Figurskey <Darin.Figurskey @noaa.gov>
> NC Drought advisory group,
> Rainfall amounts indicated on the precipitation maps for the past
> week were mixed across North Carolina. The maps indicate the much of
> the
> mountains region and part of the central Coastal Plain received at
> least 0.5+ inch rainfall during the period
> -or- Of note, rainfall
> totals exceeding 2 inches are indicated along the NC /Tenn border as
> well as a small part of the lower Pamlico Sound over Carteret,
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> Craven, and
> Pamlico Counties. The precipitation maps also indicate that little
> to no rainfall fell in the Sand Hills, eastern Piedmont, and western
> Coastal Plain regions, and parts of the northern Coastal Plain.
> Streamflow conditions in the eastern half of the state as noted on
> the real -time maps ( are commonly in the "less than 10th percentile"
> range along with a small number of sites with flows at record low for
> the calendar date. An area of Streamflow conditions depicted in the
> normal range continues in the northwest corner and along the NC /Tenn
> border. Examination of the 28 -day average flows (
> ) echoes widespread "less than 10th percentile" and record low for
> the calendar date across much of eastern North Carolina.
> As of June 19 (Sunday), Streamflow conditions indicate 55 percent of
> sites across North Carolina have percentiles for 7 -day average flows
> falling below the 25th percentile for the calendar date (see graph
> below).
> This
> percentage suggests minor improvements in overall Streamflow relative
> to
> 62 percent just a week ago.
> As noted in past weeks, very little change seems to be occurring in
> the groundwater depictions for the 10 observation wells in the Blue
> Ridge, Piedmont, and Sand Hills regions within the NC Climate
> Response network (
> Among these 10 wells,
> groundwater conditions continue to be depicted at levels in the
> normal (7), below normal (2), and much below normal (1) ranges.
> Water levels at the six Coastal Plain observation wells within the
> same network are currently depicted in the below - normal range for 1
> wells, much below - normal for 2 wells, and record low for the month at
> 3 wells.
> The
> wells with the record low for the month (June) are:
> Comfort in Jones County
> Hoke in Washington County
> Elizabeth City in Pasquotank County
> Draft 1 for this week's release was available as of Monday afternoon
> with no changes yet indicated for North Carolina. This week's USDM
> author is awaiting input from the NC group following the weekly
> conference call.
> Changes made last week were the expansion of D0 across the headwaters
> of the French Broad River basin in the mountains, minor expansions of
> D1 in the southern Coastal Plain and northeast Piedmont, and inland
> expansion of
> D2 across parts of the Coastal Plain.
> I'm becoming more concerned that drought depictions in the eastern
N

> Piedmont, Sand Hills, and western Coastal Plain regions are becoming
> understated given the widespread streamflows in the "less than 10th
> percentile" range. One immediate thought is to expand the D1 into the
> remaining D0 area in the upper Cape Fear and Neuse basins. Based on
> recent rainfall patterns, some restraint was used last week in
> expanding
> D1 across parts of the upper Neuse.
> The second thought is to suggest the group consider further inland D2
> expansion towards the eastern Piedmont in the next week or so if no
> substantial rainfall materializes across central areas of North Carolina.
> Comments and opinions welcome...
> Thanks.
> 7CWeaver
> 7. Curtis Weaver, Hydrologist, PE
> USGS North Carolina Water Science Center
> 3916 Sunset Ridge Road
> Raleigh, NC 27607
> Phone: [phone] // Fax: [phone]
> Mobile: [phone]
> E -mail address -- jcweaver @usgs.gov
> Internet address --
> -- USDM draft (if available) --
> As of Monday afternoon, draft 1 for this week's version was available
> with no changes yet indicated for North Carolina. Brian Fuchs,
> climatologist with the National Drought Mitigation Center in Lincoln,
> Nebraska, is again the USDM author for this week's release. In the
> email accompanying the first draft, he made no specific comment
> concerning North Carolina (he is awaiting input following the NC
> telecom), but did offer the following
> comment concerning South Carolina:
> 3) South Carolina: I heard a message of status quo for the week,
> but really am seeing evidence to degrade the areas along the coast.
> The
> indicators are in the D3 /D4 range and we have a lot of D1 /D2 showing
> yet.
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> USDM archive (you can select North Carolina from the drop -down box
> near the top, a quick way to see the last two USDM releases):
> -- Observed precipitation --
> Sources of precipitation totals are available from the following:
> (1) USGS rainfall totals (sorted by county) for the last 7 days at
> (2) State Climate Office of North Carolina at
> (3) NOAA NWS's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service at
> Image shown below pulled from the NOAA NWS's Advanced Hydrologic
> Prediction Service at
> -- Streamflow --
> Focusing on current streamflow conditions...
> Current conditions are depicted as real -time, 7 -day, 14 -day, and
> 28 -day flows available in the WaterWatch series of maps at:
> Current conditions...
> Last week's conditions...
> When viewing the USGS WaterWatch streamflow information, you can
> hover your cursor over a site and a pop -up box appears with various
> pieces of information, including the percentile for the current
> streamflow AND the current percentage of mean and median for the
> calendar date.
> Highlighting current flows (June 21 morning) at some selected gaging
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5
> stations (obtained from
> Site number Site name (and County)
Flow
> Jun 14
> Current flow (% of) Median Jun 21
> 02053200 Potecasi Creek near Union (Hertford) --
6.7
> cfs
> 3.2 cfs 19% 17 cfs
> 02106500 Black River near Tomahawk (Sampson) --
16
> cfs
> 14 cfs 4.3% 327 cfs
> 02085500 Flat River at Bahama (Durham) --
20
> cfs
> 7.0 cfs 27% 26 cfs
> 02096960 Haw River near Bynum (Chatham) --
271
> cfs
> 107 cfs 33% 325 cfs
> 02115360 Yadkin River at Enon (Yadkin) --
1,890
> cfs
> 1,270 cfs 62% 2,039 cfs
> 02152100 First Broad River near Casar (Cleveland) --
28
> cfs
> 31 cfs 48% 64 cfs
> 03451500 French Broad River at Asheville (Buncombe) --
1,070
> cfs
> 1,060 cfs 72% 1,480 cfs
> 03550000 Valley River at Tomotla (Cherokee) --
93
> cfs
> 106 cfs 76% 139 cfs
> Focusing on the 7 -day average flows...
> Visit the WaterWatch pages at to
> get the most recent data for sites of interest.
> Durations plots for selected individual USGS stations can be
accessed
> at
> The OVERALL 7 -day average flows by HUC map
> are
> depicted in the image below:
> To help provide more detail by major basin, the BELOW NORMAL
7 -day
> average flows by HUC map
> are
> depicted in the image below:
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> As of June 19 (Sunday), the graph of 7 -day flow percentiles shown
> below indicates 55 percent of sites across North Carolina have
> percentiles for 7 -day average flows falling below the 25th percentile
> for the calendar date. And 30 percent of sites across North Carolina
> are shown as having 7 -day average flows below the 10th percentile or
> reaching new minimum for calendar date. The percentage of sites with
> 7 -day average flows falling below the 25th percentile "topped out" at
> 48 percent on June 17 (Friday).
> Compared to June 12 (Sunday), the current values indicate minor
> improvement in overall streamflow conditions during course of the past
> week, considering 62% of sites across the state were below the 25th
> percentile and 31% of sites were below 10th percentile and /or reaching
> new minimum for the calendar date.
> Below is a graph developed from the 7 -day average flow summary table
> available at:
> Another measure of the streamflow conditions is available from maps
> of median percentiles for 7 -day average flows for the previous 7 -,
> 14- 30 -, 60 -, and 90 -day periods updated through June 20 (Monday).
> These maps are intended to provide some kind of "long- term" index of
> the streamflow
> conditions (not available through the USGS WaterWatch pages) that is
> mapped according to the classification scheme for streamflow used by
> the U.S. Drought Monitor. Map images (via the above URL) showing the
> median percentiles for 7 -day average flows for previous 7 and 30 days
> are shown below.
> Explanation
> Unregulated
> Regulated
> No - No Drought (>30 percentile)
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> D0 - Abnormally Dry (21 to 30 percentile)
> D1 - Moderate Drought (11 to 20 percentile)
> D2 - Severe Drought (6 to 10 percentile)
> D3 - Extreme Drought (3 to 5 percentile)
> D4 - Exceptional Drought (0 to 2 percentile)
> n/d - Not determined
> The following ArcMap screenshot shows the change in the median
> percentiles of 7 -day average flows for 7 -day period from last week
> (with last week's U.S. Drought Monitor in the background). In other
> words, at a given site, take last week's median percentile and
> compare it to this week's median percentile. Sites in red indicate a
> decrease in the median percentile from last week to this week
> (suggesting a decline in streamflow).
> Sites
> in blue indicate an increase in the median percentile from last week
> to this week (suggesting an improvement decline in streamflow). The
> size of the circles indicates the general range in percentile
> increase or decrease (note legend to left of the map).
> -- Ground Water --
> Please visit the Climate Response Network page at
> (map shown
> below) for more information on ground -water conditions at selected
> USGS observation wells in North Carolina.
> Shown below are the hydrographs at four selected wells across North
> Carolina... real -time page for USGS ground water data in NC is
> available at

(MOUNTAINS) NC -144 at Blantyre in Transylvania County (
(WESTERN PIEDMONT) NC -193, Piedmont RS near Barber in Rowan County (
(EASTERN PIEDMONT) NC -126 at Chapel Hill in Orange County (
(COASTAL PLAIN) NC -160 near Simpson in Pitt County (
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