20051457 Ver 1_Re USGS streamflow and ground-water conditions in NC through Monday June 13.msg_20110614

Strickland, Bev
From:
Brian Fuchs [bfuchs @unlnotes.unl.edu]
Sent:
Tuesday, June 14, 2011 1:24 PM
To:
Peter Corrigan
Cc:
Allison.Wash @va.usda.gov; Ashley. E.Hatchell @usace. army. miI; Brian. Cullen @noaa.gov; Haines, Brian;
Darin Figurskey; Lane, David; Owen, Debra; eric.seymour @noaa.gov; gagalleh @duke- energy.com;
garry_grabow @ncsu.edu; George. Mathews @noaa.gov, Brady, Harold M., Kritzer, Jamie, John C
Weaver; jeff.orrock @noaa.gov; Prevette, Jim; Hoffmann, Jucilene; Kathleen Carroll;
Lara.Pagano @noaa.gov; Peele, Linwood; Michael .A.Young @saw02.usace. army. miI;
Michael. Moneypenny @noaa.gov; Orbon, Mike; Sarwar, Neelufa; Patricia. Tanner @noaa.gov;
Richard. Neuherz @noaa.gov; rwall @ncem.org; ryan_boyles @ncsu.edu; Young, Sarah-
. Hamill @noaa.gov, Fransen, Tom; Reeder, Tom; tony_dorn @nass.usda.gov; Lawrence, Torey; Cox,
Vernon N; Munden, Wayne; Yonts, Woody
Subject:
Re: USGS streamflow and ground -water conditions in NC through Monday, June 13
Attachments:
peter_corrigan.vcf; usdm- 110614SE- dr2.png
Importance: High
I wanted to send out what I have in Draft #2 so far before the call. Most of the changes in NIC were slight up to this point
to match up with changes I have made in VA and SC. I am looking forward to the call.
Thanks
Brian Fuchs
NDMC

June 14, 2011
Ujff S. Drought Monitor Valid 8 a.m. E DT
in L-nisdv.
DO _'b=rmally Day
D1 Draught - I'dodersic-
D2 DT-aught- Severs
D2,DT-aught- EKtrerrK-
D4Daught- Exoeoflonsl
Brian A. Fuchs, Climatologist
National Drought Mitigation Center
School of Natural Resources
University of Nebraska-Lincoln
824 Hardin Hall
3310 Holdrege Street
Lincoln, NE 68583-0988
Orouqft ft pwl Tee:
P-1 DAinakes d=in ant impacts
A_;. i lti rsli crops, pastur--,
grasslands"!
H = H�&na[cg issl jwetse,
1, N a type, = Both i,—rp acts
Phone:[phone]
Phone:[phone] (NDMC Secretary)
fax: [phone]
http://www.drought.unl.edu
http://snr.unl.edu
Peter Corrigan <[e-mail]>
06/14/2011 12:11 PM
USDA
am N, �1_11A"-Ja
Released Thursday, June 16, 201
To John C Weaver <[e-mail]>
cc "Yonts, Woody" <[e-mail]>, [e-mail],

Brian. Cullen @noaa.gov, Brian. Haines @ncdenr.gov, david.lane @ncdenr.gov,
debra.owen @ncdenr.gov, eric.seymour @noaa.gov, gagalleh @duke - energy.com,
garry_grabow @ncsu.edu, George. Mathews @noaa.gov, harold.m.brady @ncdenr.gov,
jamie.kritzer @ncdenr.gov, jeff.orrock @noaa.gov, jim.prevette @ncdenr.gov,
jucilene.hoffmann @ncdenr.gov, Lara.Pagano @noaa.gov, linwood.peele @ncdenr.gov,
Michael .A.Young @saw02.usace. army. mil, Michael. Moneypenny @noaa.gov,
mike.orbon @ncdenr.gov, neelufa.sarwar @ncdenr.gov, Patricia.Tanner @noaa.gov,
Richard.Neuherz @noaa.gov, rwall @ncem.org, ryan_boyles @ncsu.edu,
sarah.young @ncdenr.gov, Todd.Hamill @noaa.gov, Tom.Fransen @ncdenr.gov,
tom.reeder @ncdenr.gov, tony_dorn @nass.usda.gov,
Torey_Lawrence @nass.usda.gov, Vernon.Cox @ncagr.gov,
Wayne.Munden @ncdenr.gov, Brian Fuchs <bfuchs @UNLNOTES.UNL.EDU >,
Allison.Wash @va.usda.gov, Kathleen Carroll <Kathleen. Carroll @noaa.gov >, Darin
Figurskey <Darin.Figurskey @noaa.gov>
Subject Re: USGS streamflow and ground -water conditions in NC through Monday, June 13
will not be on call today but endorse status quo in NW NC counties ... as per Draft 41 of USDM
PC
On 6/14/2011 11:46 AM, John C Weaver wrote:
NC Drought advisory group,
Rainfall amounts indicated on the precipitation maps for the past week were fairly decent across parts of North Carolina.
The maps indicate a large part of the state having received at least 75% or better normal rainfall during the period
( http : / /water.weather.gov /precip/ -or- http : / /www.nc - climate.ncsu.edu /mpe departure /). Of note, rainfall totals exceeding 2
inches are indicated for the southern Piedmont, northern mountains and Foothills regions, along the NC/Tenn border, and
parts of the northern Coastal Plain. Nevertheless, a large area of 30 -day percent of normal precipitation in the range of
10 -25 percent continues to be visible along the eastern Coastal Plain and also in a small area of the headwaters for the
Little Tennessee / French Broad River basins.
Streamflow conditions noted on the real -time maps are very similar to the conditions noted last week in that below - normal
streamflow conditions continue to be visibly widespread across much of the state
(http:Hwaterwatch.usgs.gov/ new / ?m= real &r =nc &w= real %2Cmap). The only area of streamflow conditions depicted in the
normal range is the northwest corner within the New River and upper Yadkin headwaters basins. Streamflow conditions
depicted in the "less than 10th percentile range" continue to be widespread in the eastern half of the state with a small
number of sites in the NE Cape Fear River basin and middle Tar River basin indicated at record low for the calendar date.
The 28 -day average streamflow map (http: / /waterwatch.usgs.gov/ new /index.php ?m= pa28d &r =nc &w =map) indicates
widespread conditions in the 'less than 10th percentile" across most of the Sand Hills and Coastal Plain regions.
As of June 12 (Sunday), streamflow conditions indicate 62 percent of sites across North Carolina have percentiles for 7-
day average flows falling below the 25th percentile for the calendar date (see graph below). This percentage indicates
practically no change in overall streamflow relative to 63 percent just a week ago.
Not much change was noted in the groundwater depictions during the past week for the 10 observation wells in the Blue
Ridge, Piedmont, and Sand Hills regions within the NC Climate Response network
(http: / /ogw01.er.usgs.gov /crn /StateMaps /NC.html). Among these 10 wells, groundwater conditions continue to be
depicted at levels in the normal (7), below normal (2), and much below normal (1) ranges. The water levels at the Chapel
Hill well have stabilized with very little change during the past week. Water levels at this well increased during the past
few weeks in response to the sudden heavy rainfall that occurred on May 27
(http: / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nwis /uv ?site no= 355522079043001).
Water levels at the six Coastal Plain observation wells within the same network are currently depicted in the below - normal
range for 2 wells, much below - normal for 3 wells, and record low for the month at 1 well. The well with the record low for
the month (June) is near Hoke in Washington County
( http:// groundwaterwatch .usgs.gov /AWLSites.asp ?S= 354418076463601 &ncd =crn). The four wells with water levels in the
much below normal ranges and record for the month are all located within the area of the Coastal Plain where 30 -day

precipitation deficits in the range of 10 to 25 percent have been predominant and where the D1 drought depiction has
been recently expanded across the region.
Draft 1 for this week's release was available as of Monday afternoon with no changes yet indicated for North Carolina.
Changes made last week were the expansion of D1 across the northern Piedmont and Coastal Plain regions as well as
introduction of DO across parts of the southern mountains and Piedmont regions.
As for this week's depiction, the pattern of rainfall across the state during the past week potentially raises the "credibility
issue" of showing deteriorated conditions where warranted when fairly decent rainfall amounts have been noted. A couple
of areas where deterioration may be warranted:
(1) The French Broad River basin where DO may be justified on the basis of 30 -day percent of normal precipitation with
many streams depicted in the below - normal range of flow.
(2) Expansion of D2 across a couple areas of the Coastal Plain? ... (a) parts of the lower Cape Fear in Cumberland,
Sampson, Bladen and (b) parts of the Tar River basin where widespread much below - normal and record low streamflow
conditions for the calendar date have been noted during the past few weeks.
Comments and opinions welcome...
Thanks.
JCWeaver
****************************** * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * **
J. Curtis Weaver, Hydrologist, PE
USGS North Carolina Water Science Center
3916 Sunset Ridge Road
Raleigh, NC 27607
Phone: [phone] H Fax: [phone]
Mobile: [phone]
E -mail address -- jcweaver(a�usgs.gov
Internet address --.http://nc.water.usgs.gov
****************************** * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * **
-- USDM draft (if available) --
As of Monday afternoon, draft 1 for this week's version was available with no changes yet indicated for North Carolina.
Brian Fuchs, climatologist with the National Drought Mitigation Center in Lincoln, Nebraska, is the USDM author for this
week's release. In the email accompanying the first draft, he made no specific comments concerning the Carolinas
region.

USDM archive (you can select North Carolina from the drop -down box near the top, a quick way to see the last two USDM
releases):
htto:H drouaht.unl.edu /dm /archive.html
-- Observed precipitation --
Sources of precipitation totals are available from the following:
(1) USGS rainfall totals (sorted by county) for the last 7 days at
http : / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /current ?tvpe = precip &group kev= county cd
(2) State Climate Office of North Carolina at http : / /www.nc - climate.ncsu.edu /mpe departure/
(3) NOAA NWS's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service at http://water.weather.gov/preci
shown below pulled from the NOAA NWS's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service at

http : / /water.weather.gov /precip/
North Carolina: Current 7 —Day Observed Precipitation
Valid at 6/13/2011 1200 UTC— Created 6/13/11 23:56 UTC
-- Streamflow --
4: 1106", RITITIT41HRIT110111111111
Current conditions are depicted as real -time, 7 -day, 14 -day, and 28 -day flows available in the WaterWatch series of maps
at:
http://waterwatch.usgs.gov/classic/?m=real&r=nc&w=real%2Cmap
Current conditions...
6

Tuesday, June 14, 2011 08 :30ET
WIM
MUSIGS
Last week's conditions...
Tuesday, June 07, 2011 08 :30ET
When viewing the USGS WaterWatch streamflow information, you can hover your cursor over a site and a pop -up box
appears with various pieces of information, including the percentile for the current streamflow AND the current percentage
Explanation - Percentile classes
......,.
Lew X10
1 5 -7 r 6 -90 >
. �
dol- ranked Ajr
m ed u
w __I
,
4OW Ahpvp MUch abO �8l tral . rmal
�
When viewing the USGS WaterWatch streamflow information, you can hover your cursor over a site and a pop -up box
appears with various pieces of information, including the percentile for the current streamflow AND the current percentage

of mean and median for the calendar date.
Highlighting current flows (June 14 morning) at some selected gaging stations (obtained from
http : / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /current / ?type =flow ):
Site number
Site name (and County)
Flow Jun 07
Current
flow
(% of)
Median Jun 14
02053200
Potecasi Creek near Union (Hertford) --
6.0
cfs
6.7
cfs
230
29 cfs
02106500
Black River near Tomahawk (Sampson) --
37
cfs
16
cfs
5.90
272 cfs
02085500
Flat River at Bahama (Durham) --
14
cfs
20
cfs
56%
36 cfs
02096960
Haw River near Bynum (Chatham) --
159
cfs
271
cfs
640
423 cfs
02115360
Yadkin River at Enon (Yadkin) --
1,630
cfs
1,890
cfs
880
2,140 cfs
02152100
First Broad River near Casar (Cleveland) --
32
cfs
28
cfs
42%
67 cfs
03451500
French Broad River at Asheville (Buncombe) --
1,020
cfs
1,070
cfs
67%
1,590 cfs
03550000
Valley River at Tomotla (Cherokee) --
85
cfs
93
cfs
600
154 cfs
Focusing on the 7-day average flows...
Visit the WaterWatch pages at http: / /waterwatch.usgs.gov /classic / ?r =nc to get the most recent data for sites of interest.
Durations plots for selected individual USGS stations can be accessed at http: / /nc.water.usgs.gov /drought /duration.html
The OVERALL 7 -day average flows by HUC map
(http:Hwaterwatch.usgs.gov /classic / ?m= pa07d &r= nc &w =pa07d nwc %2Cmap) are depicted in the image below:
Monday, June 13, 2011
I, SGS
8

To help provide more detail by major basin, the BELOW NORMAL 7 -day average flows by HUC map
(http: / /waterwatch.usgs.gov /classic /index.php ?map type =drvw &state =nc) are depicted in the image below:
Monday, June 13, 2011
I, SGS
As of June 12 (Sunday), the graph of 7 -day flow percentiles shown below indicates 62 percent of sites across North
Carolina have percentiles for 7 -day average flows falling below the 25th percentile for the calendar date. And 31 percent
of sites across North Carolina are shown as having 7 -day average flows below the 10th percentile or reaching new
minimum for calendar date. The percentage of sites with 7 -day average flows falling below the 25th percentile "bottomed
out" at 77 percent on June 10.
Compared to June 05 (Sunday), the current values indicate substantial deterioration in overall streamflow conditions
during course of the past week, considering 63% of sites across the state were below the 25th percentile and 29% of sites
were below 10th percentile and /or reaching new minimum for the calendar date.
Below is a graph developed from the 7 -day average flow summary table available at:
http: / /waterwater.usgs.gov/ classic / ?m= pa07d &r= nc &w= paO7d %2Ctable

i
i
If i
Less than 25th percentile Percentage of sites in North Carolina with 7 -day t
Less than 10th percentile indicated percentile range or lowe
New ruin forthe day
August - -, - - --
2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2011
Date
Another measure of the streamflow conditions is available from maps of median percentiles for 7 -day average flows for
the previous 7 -, 14- 30 -, 60 -, and 90 -day periods updated through June 13 (Monday). These maps are intended to
provide some kind of "long- term" index of the streamflow conditions (not available through the USGS WaterWatch pages)
that is mapped according to the classification scheme for streamflow used by the U.S. Drought Monitor. Map images (via
the above URL) showing the median percentiles for 7 -day average flows for previous 7 and 30 days are shown below.
http: / /nc. water. usgs .gov /drought/dm- streamflow.html
10

L
w
Q)
Previous 30 days
Monday, June 1, 2011
i
Explanation
Unregulated
Regulated
No - No Drought ( >30 percentile)
10
Im
DO - Abnormally Dry (21 to 30 percentile)
D
❑
D1 - Moderate Drought (11 to 20 percentile)
D
D2 - Severe Drought (6 to 10 percentile)
D3 - Extreme Drought (3 to 5 percentile)
D4 - Exceptional Drought (0 to 2 percentile)
n/d - Not determined
0
❑
11

The following ArcMap screenshot shows the change in the median percentiles of 7 -day average flows for 7 -day period
from last week (with last week's U.S. Drought Monitor in the background). In other words, at a given site, take last
week's median percentile and compare it to this week's median percentile. Sites in red indicate a decrease in the median
percentile from last week to this week (suggesting a decline in streamflow). Sites in blue indicate an increase in the
median percentile from last week to this week (suggesting an improvement decline in streamflow). The size of the circles
indicates the general range in percentile increase or decrease (note legend to left of the map).
File Edit View Bookmarks Insert Selection Tools Window Help
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Drawing — —
-- Ground Water --
Please visit the Climate Response Network page at
http: / /groundwaterwatch. usqs. gov /StateMapsNet.asp ?ncd= crn &sc =37 (map shown below) for more information on
12
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Greater than 50 percentile increase
25 to 50 percentile increase
10 to 25 percentile increase
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Drawing — —
-- Ground Water --
Please visit the Climate Response Network page at
http: / /groundwaterwatch. usqs. gov /StateMapsNet.asp ?ncd= crn &sc =37 (map shown below) for more information on
12

ground -water conditions at selected USGS observation wells in North Carolina.
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Shown below are the hydrographs at four selected wells across North Carolina... real -time page for USGS ground water
data in NC is available at http: / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /current ?tvpe =qw
(MOUNTAINS) NC -144 at Blantyre in Transylvania County
(http: / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv / ?site no= 351808082374302 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw)
13
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Shown below are the hydrographs at four selected wells across North Carolina... real -time page for USGS ground water
data in NC is available at http: / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /current ?tvpe =qw
(MOUNTAINS) NC -144 at Blantyre in Transylvania County
(http: / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv / ?site no= 351808082374302 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw)
13

USES 351 080823 '430 TR-065 (NC-144) AT BLANTYRE, NC (REGOLITH)
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May May Jun Jun
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2011 2011 2011 2011
---- Provisional Data Subject to Revision ----
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(http: / /waterdata .usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv / ?dd cd =01 72019 00003 &format =imq default &site no= 354057080362601 &set to
qscale v =0 &begin date = 20070319)
15
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Jul Sep
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— Daily nean depth to
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(WESTERN PIEDMONT) NC -193, Piedmont RS near Barber in Rowan County
(http: / /waterdata .usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv / ?dd cd =01 72019 00003 &format =imq default &site no= 354057080362601 &set to
qscale v =0 &begin date = 20070319)
15

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2011
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- - -- Provisional Data Subject
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- - --
0
Measured depth to water level
— Depth to water
level
16

(EASTERN PIEDMONT) NC -126 at Chapel Hill in Orange County
( http:/ /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv/ ?site no= 355522079043001 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw)
SGS 3540 x'0803 01 Rte -149 (SIC -193)
PIEDMONT RS 1 NR BARBER (RE OLIT
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45.20
Jul Sep Now
Jan Mar May
2010 2010 2010
2011 2011 2011
O
— Daily nean depth to water level
Period of provisional data
Period of approved data
L
Gi
(EASTERN PIEDMONT) NC -126 at Chapel Hill in Orange County
( http:/ /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv/ ?site no= 355522079043001 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw)
17
USGS
355522079 143001
OR -069 (NC-126) AT CHAPEL
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44.80
466.70
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May Jun
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2011 2011
2011
- - -- Provisional Data Subject to Revision - - --
17

(COASTAL PLAIN) NC -160 near Simpson in Pitt County
( http:/ /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv/ ?site no= 353219077153801 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw)
18
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Period of provisional data
(COASTAL PLAIN) NC -160 near Simpson in Pitt County
( http:/ /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv/ ?site no= 353219077153801 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw)
18

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19
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1 +$
5555 +9
Q-
2 ry �y
.0
54 +$
S
41
o%
3 +0
+$
52
+$
41
0 55 +0
51
0
+}
+$
i
a 6 +
59 +$
}y
7.:
m
-W
49 +9
L
C6
8
Gi
P
p
+9
48 +9
s
9
H
o
+$
Jul
Sep Now
Jan
Mar May
C
L
2919
2919 2919
2911
2811 2911
0
— Daily nean depth to water level
Period
of approved data
Period
of provisional data
— Lowest
recorded water level
prior to MY2911 (8 +97 ft Oct 23,24, 2997)
20