20051457 Ver 1_Re USGS streamflow and ground-water conditions in NC through Monday August 13 2012.msg_20120814

Strickland, Bev
From:
Richard Neuherz [richard.neuherz @noaa.gov]
Sent:
Tuesday, August 14, 2012 12:07 PM
To:
John C Weaver
Cc:
Jackson, Donna; Ashley. E.Hatchell @usace. army. miI; brian.cullen @noaa.gov; Brian. Hai nes @ncdenr.gov;
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jamie.kritzer @ncdenr.gov; Jeff.Orrock @noaa.gov; jim.prevette @ncdenr.gov;
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Michael .A.Young @saw02.usace. army. miI; michael.moneypenny @noaa.gov; mike.orbon @ncdenr.gov;
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ryan_boyles @ncsu.edu; sarah.young @ncdenr.gov; todd.hamill @noaa.gov; Tom.Fransen @ncdenr.gov;
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Vernon. Cox @ncagr.gov; Wayne.Munden @ncdenr.gov; Brian Fuchs; Allison.Wash @va.usda.gov;
Kathleen Carroll; Darin Figurskey; Glenn Carrin; Yonts, Woody; wly
Subject:
Re: USGS streamflow and ground -water conditions in NC through Monday, August 13, 2012
Everyone,
I won't be on the call again today as I am working a forecast desk again. While we have been wet the past two
to three weeks in this part of the state, dryness lingers going back to 30 and 60 days. You can see that in ILM
rainfall statistics at http: / /www.erh.noaa.gov /ilm /TEXT /procdata.txt and in the 30 and 60 MPE
graphics. Despite the recent wetness, there really aren't any areas of standing water in fields or the like so it
looks like the ground has really taken in the rain we've gotten lately.
For those reasons, I'd like to maintain status quo in the SE.
Thanks,
Rick
On Tue, Aug 14, 2012 at 11:16 AM, John C Weaver <[e-mail]> wrote:
NC Drought advisory group,
Precipitation maps showing rainfall totals across North Carolina during the past week
( http:Hwater.weather.gov /precip/ or http : / /www.nc- climate.ncsu.edu /mpe departure) indicate another
week of good widespread coverage across the state. Statewide totals exceeded 0.5 inch with
exception of a few very small areas. Higher totals in the range of 2 to 4 inches are indicated in the
central Piedmont (upper Cape Fear, lower Yadkin basins), across part of the northern Coastal Plain,
along the central Outer Banks, and southern coast line.
Streamflow conditions depicted on the real -time streamflow map
(http: / /waterwatch.usgs.gov / ?m= real &r =nc &w= real %2Cmap) continue to echo the rainfall effects with
conditions depicted in the normal ranges across most of the state with above - normal ranges at some
USGS streamgages in the central and northern Coastal Plain. Areas of below - normal conditions
continue to appear on the real -time map in parts of the South Fork Catawba and lower Catawba River
basins as well as parts of the Dan River basin (Roanoke) near the Virginia border. Inspection of the
28 -day average streamflow map ( http:// waterwatch. usgs .gov /index.php ?m= pa28d &r =nc &w =map)
also continues to indicate the largest concentration of below - normal conditions in the South Fork
Catawba River basin as well parts of the Dan River basin (Roanoke) and upper Neuse and Tar River
basins.

As of August 12 (Sunday), streamflow conditions indicate 8 percent of sites across North Carolina
have percentiles for 7 -day average flows falling below the 25th percentile for the calendar date (see
graph below). This percentage suggests substantial improvements in overall streamflows relative to
37 percent just a week ago.
Water levels at the Blue Ridge, Piedmont, and Sand Hills observations wells in the Climate Response
Network in North Carolina ( http:// ogw01. er. usgs.gov /crn /StateMaps /NC.html) are depicted in the
above - normal range for 2 wells, normal range for 3 wells, below normal for 3 wells, much below -
normal for the Marston well in Scotland County
( http : / /groundwaterwatch.usgs.gov /AWLSites. asp ?S = 345812079313401 &ncd =crn), and continued
record low for the calendar month at the Chapel Hill well in Orange County.
Water levels at the Coastal Plain observation wells are depicted in "record high for the month" range
at the well near Simpson in Pitt County
( http : / /groundwaterwatch.usgs.gov /AWLSites. asp ?S = 353219077153801 &ncd =crn), the above - normal
ranges at 3 wells, and the normal range for 2 wells. Of note, water levels in the Pitt County well are
about 5 feet above the levels noted this time a year ago.
Changes made to the USDM depiction for North Carolina in last week's release included some DO
trimming in the southern mountains along the GA/SC borders as well as partial D1 trimming in the
southern Coastal Plain. However, the DO extent in Mecklenburg County was extended eastward to
take in parts of Cabarrus, Stanley, Anson, and eastern Union Counties.
Given the precipitation and streamflow patterns noted above, the NC drought group may want to
consider the following:
(1) Based on 30 -day percent of normal precipitation (PNP) depicted at
http : / /water.weather.gov /precip /, some trimming of the outer DO extents (in the northeastern
Piedmont) may be warranted, maintaining DO primarily across Harnett and Johnston Counties.
(2) Apparently more rainfall occurred in New Hanover County this past week, again bypassing most
of Brunswick County where a small D1 area continues to be depicted. Would suggest "status quo"
for this area. However, rainfall coverage in the range of 2+ inches was noted along the southern
coast line and raises the question as to whether removal of DO from New Hanover up to Carteret
County is warranted.
(3) Suggest trimming DO across parts of the Union, Anson, and Stanley Counties based on rainfall
coverage this past week (2+ inches ?) as well as the 30 -day PNP.
(4) Maintaining DO across Alleghany County and removal of DO along the Virginia border in the
northern Coastal Plain appears to be supported by both 7 -day and 30 -day PNP patterns.
Comments and opinions welcome...
Thanks.
JCWeaver
****************************** * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * **
J. Curtis Weaver, Hydrologist, PE
USGS North Carolina Water Science Center

3916 Sunset Ridge Road
Raleigh, NC 27607
Phone: [phone] H Fax: [phone]
Mobile: [phone]
E -mail address -- icweaver(a�usgs.gov
Internet address -- http: / /nc.water.usgs.gov/
****************************** * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * **
-- USDM draft (if available) --
As of Monday afternoon, draft 1 for this week's version was available with no changes yet indicated
for North Carolina. Michael Brewer, NIDIS U.S. Drought Portal Manager at
NOAA's National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, is the USDM author for this week's release. In
the email accompanying draft 1, he made no specific comments concerning North Carolina.
USDM archive (you can select North Carolina from the drop -down box near the top, a quick way to
see the last two USDM releases):
http:// drought.unl.edu /dm /archive.html
-- Observed precipitation --
Sources of precipitation totals are available from the following:
(1) USGS rainfall totals (sorted by county) for the last 7 days at
http : / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /current ?tVpe = precip &group key= county cd
(2) State Climate Office of North Carolina at http : / /www.nc- climate.ncsu.edu /mpe departure/
(3) NOAA NWS's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service at http: / /water.weather.gov /precip/
Image shown below pulled from the NOAA NWS's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service at
http: / /water.weather.gov /precip/

-- Streamflow --
• - -. • •
Current conditions are depicted as real -time, 7 -day, 14 -day, and 28 -day flows available in the
WaterWatch series of maps at-
http://waterwatch.usgs.gov/classic/?m=real&r=nc&w=real%2Cmap
Current conditions...
Last week's conditions...
When viewing the USGS WaterWatch streamflow information, you can hover your cursor over a site
and a pop -up box appears with various pieces of information, including the percentile for the current
streamflow AND the current percentage of mean and median for the calendar date.
Highlighting current flows (August 14 morning) at some selected gaging stations (obtained from
http : / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /current / ?type =flow ):
Site number
Site name (and County)
Flow Aug 07
Current
flow
(% of)
Median Aug 14
02053200
Potecasi Creek near Union (Hertford) --
14
cfs
446
cfs
3,2000
14 cfs
02106500
Black River near Tomahawk (Sampson) --
183
cfs
202
cfs
640
316 cfs
02085500
Flat River at Bahama (Durham) --
3.2
cfs
11
cfs
690
16 cfs
02096960
Haw River near Bynum (Chatham) --
131
cfs
393
cfs
1760
223 cfs
02115360
Yadkin River at Enon (Yadkin) --
1,190
cfs
1,640
cfs
1150
1,429 cfs
02152100
First Broad River near Casar (Cleveland) --
33
cfs
23
cfs
480
48 cfs
03451500
French Broad River at Asheville (Buncombe) --
1,700
cfs
1,180
cfs
1010
1,170 cfs
03550000
Valley River at Tomotla (Cherokee) --
168
cfs
79
cfs
750
106 cfs
#� !� E ME Wit^
Visit the WaterWatch pages at http: / /waterwatch.usgs.gov /classic / ?r =nc to get the most recent data
for sites of interest.
4

Durations plots for selected individual USGS stations can be accessed at
http: / /nc. water .usgs.gov /drought /duration.htmI
The OVERALL 7 -day average flows by HUC map
(http: / /waterwatch.usgs.gov /classic / ?m= pa07d &r= nc &w =pa07d nwc %2Cmap) are depicted in the
image below:
To help provide more detail by major basin, the BELOW NORMAL 7 -day average flows by HUC map
(http: / /waterwatch.usgs.gov /classic /index.php ?map type =drvw &state =nc) are depicted in the image
below:
As of August 12 (Sunday), the graph of 7 -day flow percentiles shown below indicates 8 percent of
sites across North Carolina have percentiles for 7 -day average flows falling below the 25th percentile
for the calendar date. And 1 percent of sites across North Carolina are shown as having 7 -day
average flows below the 10th percentile or reaching new minimum for calendar date.
Compared to August 05 (Sunday), the current values indicate improvements in overall streamflow
conditions during course of the past week, considering 37% of sites across the state were below the
25th percentile and 8% of sites were below 10th percentile and /or reaching new minimum for the
calendar date.
Below is a graph developed from the 7 -day average flow summary table available at:
http: / /waterwater.usgs.gov/ classic / ?m= pa07d &r= nc &w= pa07d %2Ctable
Another measure of the streamflow conditions is available from maps of median percentiles for 7 -day
average flows for the previous 7 -, 14- 30 -, 60 -, and 90 -day periods updated through August 13
(Monday). These maps are intended to provide some kind of "long- term" index of the streamflow
conditions (not available through the USGS WaterWatch pages) that is mapped according to the
classification scheme for streamflow used by the U.S. Drought Monitor. Map images (via the above
URL) showing the median percentiles for 7 -day average flows for previous 7 and 30 days are shown
below.
http: / /nc. water. usgs .gov /drought /dm- streamflow.html

Explanation
Unregulated Regulated
No - No Drought ( >30 percentile)
DO - Abnormally Dry (21 to 30 percentile)
D1 - Moderate Drought (11 to 20 percentile)
D2 - Severe Drought (6 to 10 percentile)
D3 - Extreme Drought (3 to 5 percentile)
D4 - Exceptional Drought (0 to 2 percentile)
n/d - Not determined
The following ArcMap screenshot shows the change in the median percentiles of 7 -day average flows
for 7 -day period from last week (with last week's U.S. Drought Monitor in the c r u ). In
other words, at a given site, take last week's median percentile and compare it to this week's median
percentile. Sites in red indicate a decrease in the median percentile from last week to this week
(suggesting a decline in streamflow). Sites in blue indicate an increase in the median percentile from
last week to this week (suggesting an improvement decline in streamflow). The size of the circles
indicates the general range in percentile increase or decrease (note legend to left of the map).
-- Ground Water --
Please visit the North Carolina Real -Time Network page at
http: / /groundwaterwatch. usgs. gov /StateMapsNet.asp ?ncd= rtn &sc =37 (map shown below) for more
information on ground -water conditions at selected USGS observation wells in North Carolina.
Shown below are the hydrographs at four selected wells across North Carolina... real -time page for
USGS ground water data in NC is available at http: / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /current ?tvpe =gw
(MOUNTAINS) NC -144 at Blantyre in Transylvania County
(http: / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv / ?site no= 351808082374302 &agency cd =USGS &referred mo
dule =sw)

(WESTERN PIEDMONT) NC -193, Piedmont RS near Barber in Rowan County
(http: / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv / ?dd cd =01 72019 00003 &format =imq default &site no =35405
7080362601 &set logscale y =0 &begin date = 20070319)
(EASTERN PIEDMONT) Local number WK -284, NCDENR Lake Wheeler Research Station at
Raleigh in Wake County
(htta ://aroundwaterwatch .usas.aov /AWLSites.asa ?S= 354404078403101 &ncd =rtn)
(COASTAL PLAIN) NC -160 near Simpson in Pitt County
(http: / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv / ?site no= 353219077153801 &agency cd =USGS &referred mo
dule =sw)