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Home My WebLink About20051457 Ver 1_Re USGS streamflow and ground-water conditions in NC through Monday August 01.msg_20110802Strickland, Bev From: Rick Neuherz [Richard. Neuherz@noaa.gov] Sent: Tuesday, August 02, 2011 12:16 PM To: John C Weaver Cc: Yonts, Woody; Ashley. E.Hatchell @usace. army. miI; Brian. Cullen @noaa.gov; Brian. Hai nes @ncdenr.gov; david.lane @ncdenr.gov; debra.owen @ncdenr.gov; eric.seymour @noaa.gov; gagalleh @duke - energy.com; garry_grabow @ncsu.edu; George. Mathews @noaa.gov; harold.m.brady @ncdenr.gov; jamie.kritzer @ncdenr.gov; jeff.orrock @noaa.gov; jim.prevette @ncdenr.gov; jucilene.hoffmann @ncdenr.gov; Lara.Pagano @noaa.gov; linwood.peele @ncdenr.gov; Michael .A.Young @saw02.usace. army. miI; Michael. Moneypenny @noaa.gov; mike.orbon @ncdenr.gov; neelufa.sarwar @ncdenr.gov; Patricia. Tanner @noaa.gov; Peter. Corrigan @noaa.gov; rwall @ncem.org; ryan_boyles @ncsu.edu; sarah.young @ncdenr.gov; Todd. Hamill @noaa.gov; Tom.Fransen @ncdenr.gov; tom.reeder @ncdenr.gov; tony_dorn @nass.usda.gov; Torey_Lawrence @nass.usda.gov; Vernon. Cox @ncagr.gov; Wayne.Munden @ncdenr.gov; Brian Fuchs; Allison.Wash @va.usda.gov; Kathleen Carroll; Darin Figurskey; Glenn Carrin Subject: Re: USGS streamflow and ground -water conditions in NC through Monday, August 01 Everyone, I will not be on the call today. Based on rainfall this past week over southeast NC, I'd recommend status quo for the area at this time. There was an areal of 100 to 200% of normal rainfall over parts of Bladen and Pender Counties during the last week but if fell in areas that received little or no rain the previous week. Rick On 8/2/2011 11:24 AM, John C Weaver wrote: NC Drought advisory group, Rainfall coverage across a good part of North Carolina was relatively decent considering the patterns that have been effect during the past month. Much of the Piedmont and Coastal Plain regions received 0.5+ inch rainfall during the past week ( http : / /water.weather.gov /precip /) with fairly widespread totals of 2+ inches across parts of the southern Piedmont, Sand Hills, and northern Coastal Plain. As with the previous week, the big weather story this past week has been the consecutive days of 100+ degree high temperatures across the state. Streamflow conditions noted on the current real -time maps (http:Hwaterwatch.usgs.gov/ new / ?m= real &r =nc &w= real %2Cmap) continue to be predominantly below normal across the state with a small number of streamgages depicting normal, particularly in parts of the Neuse River basin, Mecklenburg County, and parts of the French Broad River basin. Widespread streamflow conditions in the "less than 10th percentile" range are noticeable in the Triad region and in the South Fork Catawba River basin. As of July 31 (Sunday), streamflow conditions indicate 59 percent of sites across North Carolina have percentiles for 7- day average flows falling below the 25th percentile for the calendar date (see graph below). This percentage indicates very minor improvement in overall streamflow relative to 70 percent just a week ago. The recent patterns being observed for the groundwater wells in the Climate Response Network (http: / /ogw01.er.usgs.gov /crn /StateMaps /NC.html) have been fairly consistent on a weekly basis. Similar to last week, water levels at the 10 Blue Ridge and Piedmont observations wells are depicted in the normal range for 8 wells and much below normal for 2 wells at Chapel Hill in Orange County (http: // groundwaterwatch .usgs.gov /AWLSites.asp ?S= 355522079043001 &ncd =crn) and near Marston in Scotland County (http: // groundwaterwatch .usgs.gov /AWLSites.asp ?S= 345812079313401 &ncd =crn). Water levels for the 6 wells in the Coastal Plain are depicted in the normal range for 1 well at Southport in Brunswick County (http: // groundwaterwatch .usgs.gov /AWLSites. asp ?S = 335631078003606 &ncd =crn), below normal for 2 wells, and much below normal for 3 wells. With the transition into August, the background statistics used for determining the percentiles have shifted. What this means is the record lowest water levels for the month of August are generally lower than those for July. This affects the percentile depictions shown on the real -time maps. Draft 1 for this week's release was available as of Monday afternoon with no changes yet indicated for North Carolina. The only changes made for last week's USDM release was the removal of D3 across parts of Brunswick and New Hanover Counties following heavy rainfalls in those areas the previous week. A very slight adjustment to the D1 edge in the Sand Hills region was made to accommodate some D1 changes in South Carolina. The occurrence of rainfall may justify some improvements( ?) in parts of the southeast Piedmont, Sand Hills, and northern Coastal Plain. However, the presence of 100+ degree temperatures over the past week have likely offset the effects of the rainfall benefits. Pat Tanner (NWS Greenville - Spartanburg) has requested that Mecklenburg County be removed from drought in addition to some other changes for upstate South Carolina. Comments and opinions welcome... Thanks. JCWeaver ****************************** * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * ** J. Curtis Weaver, Hydrologist, PE USGS North Carolina Water Science Center 3916 Sunset Ridge Road Raleigh, NC 27607 Phone: (919) 571 -4043 H Fax: (919) 571 -4041 Mobile: (919) 830 -6235 E -mail address -- Icweaver(c�usps.pov Internet address -- http: / /nc.water.usgs.gov/ ****************************** * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * ** -- USDM draft (if available) -- As of Monday afternoon, draft 1 for this week's version was available with no changes yet indicated for North Carolina. Brad Rippey, meteorologist with USDA in Washington, DC, is again the USDM author for this week's release. In the email accompanying draft 1, he made no specific comments concerning the Carolinas region, but did make the following comments about the Southeast region: The Southeast does not appear to be a candidate for any major changes. Most areas received some rain, but temperatures were on the high side. Crop and pasture conditions have rebounded a little bit over the past several weeks. I did merge the Northeastern DO with the Southeastern DO, with a bridge along the WV -VA border region. I need to look at the Southeast a little closer this morning to see if any fine - tuning is needed. USDM archive (you can select North Carolina from the drop -down box near the top, a quick way to see the last two USDM releases): htto:H drouaht.unl.edu /dm /archive.html -- Observed precipitation -- Sources of precipitation totals are available from the following: (1) USGS rainfall totals (sorted by county) for the last 7 days at http : / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /current ?tvpe = precip &group kev= county cd (2) State Climate Office of North Carolina at http : / /www.nc - climate.ncsu.edu /mpe departure/ (3) NOAA NWS's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service at http: / /water.weather.gov /precip/ Image shown below pulled from the NOAA NWS's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service at http : / /water.weather.gov /precip/ North Carolina: Current 7 —Day Observed Precipitation Valid at 8/1/2011 1200 UTC— Created 8/1/11 23:56 UTC -- Streamflow -- 4: I � • Current conditions are depicted as real -time, 7 -day, 14 -day, and 28 -day flows available in the WaterWatch series of maps at: http://waterwatch.usgs.gov/classic/?m=real&r=nc&w=real%2Cmap Current conditions... 4 Tuesday, August 02, 2011 08 :30ET WIM MUSIGS Last week's conditions... Tuesday, July 26, 2011 08 :30ET When viewing the USGS WaterWatch streamflow information, you can hover your cursor over a site and a pop -up box appears with various pieces of information, including the percentile for the current streamflow AND the current percentage Explanation - Percentile classes ......,. Lew X10 1 5 -7 r 6 -90 > . � dol- ranked Ajr m ed u w __I , 4OW Ahpvp MUch abO �8l tral . rmal � When viewing the USGS WaterWatch streamflow information, you can hover your cursor over a site and a pop -up box appears with various pieces of information, including the percentile for the current streamflow AND the current percentage of mean and median for the calendar date. Highlighting current flows (August 02 morning) at some selected gaging stations (obtained from http : / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /current / ?type =flow ): Site number Site name (and County) Flow Jul 26 Current flow (% of) Median Aug 02 02053200 Potecasi Creek near Union (Hertford) -- 0.02 cfs 1.7 cfs 14% 12 cfs 02106500 Black River near Tomahawk (Sampson) -- 49 cfs 50 cfs 140 368 cfs 02085500 Flat River at Bahama (Durham) -- 29 cfs 11 cfs 48% 23 cfs 02096960 Haw River near Bynum (Chatham) -- 94 cfs 186 cfs 670 278 cfs 02115360 Yadkin River at Enon (Yadkin) -- 2,120 cfs 1,360 cfs 910 1,500 cfs 02152100 First Broad River near Casar (Cleveland) -- 29 cfs 22 cfs 44% 50 cfs 03451500 French Broad River at Asheville (Buncombe) -- 1,730 cfs 939 cfs 71% 1,320 cfs 03550000 Valley River at Tomotla (Cherokee) -- 137 cfs 62 cfs 580 106 cfs Focusing on the 7-day average flows... Visit the WaterWatch pages at http: / /waterwatch.usgs.gov /classic / ?r =nc to get the most recent data for sites of interest. Durations plots for selected individual USGS stations can be accessed at http: / /nc.water.usgs.gov /drought /duration.html The OVERALL 7 -day average flows by HUC map (http:Hwaterwatch.usgs.gov /classic / ?m= pa07d &r= nc &w =pa07d nwc %2Cmap) are depicted in the image below: Monday, Rugust 01, 2011 I, SGS 6 To help provide more detail by major basin, the BELOW NORMAL 7 -day average flows by HUC map (http: / /waterwatch.usgs.gov /classic /index.php ?map type =drvw &state =nc) are depicted in the image below: Monday, Rugust 01, 2011 As of July 31 (Sunday), the graph of 7 -day flow percentiles shown below indicates 59 percent of sites across North Carolina have percentiles for 7 -day average flows falling below the 25th percentile for the calendar date. And 27 percent of sites across North Carolina are shown as having 7 -day average flows below the 10th percentile or reaching new minimum for calendar date. Compared to July 24 (Sunday), the current values indicate very minor improvement in overall streamflow conditions during course of the past week, considering 70% of sites across the state were below the 25th percentile and 31 % of sites were below 10th percentile and /or reaching new minimum for the calendar date. Below is a graph developed from the 7 -day average flow summary table available at: http: / /waterwater.usgs.gov/ classic / ?m= pa07d &r= nc &w= paO7d %2Ctable i i ii Less than 25th percentile Percentage of sites in North Carolina with 7 -day t Less than 10th percentile indicated percentile range or lowe New min forthe day August, September October ilovember December t 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2011 2011 2011 Date Another measure of the streamflow conditions is available from maps of median percentiles for 7 -day average flows for the previous 7 -, 14- 30 -, 60 -, and 90 -day periods updated through August 01 (Monday). These maps are intended to provide some kind of "long- term" index of the streamflow conditions (not available through the USGS WaterWatch pages) that is mapped according to the classification scheme for streamflow used by the U.S. Drought Monitor. Map images (via the above URL) showing the median percentiles for 7 -day average flows for previous 7 and 30 days are shown below. http: / /nc. water. usgs .gov /drought/dm- streamflow.html 8 IM 3 Previous 7 days Monday, August 01, 2011 L11< 0 Previous 30 days Monday, August 01, 2011 ■ da Explanation Unregulated Regulated No - No Drought ( >30 percentile) DO - Abnormally Dry (21 to 30 percentile) 0 ❑ D1 - Moderate Drought (11 to 20 percentile) D2 - Severe Drought (6 to 10 percentile) D3 - Extreme Drought (3 to 5 percentile) IF D4 - Exceptional Drought (0 to 2 percentile) a IM n/d - Not determined 0 ❑ 0 The following ArcMap screenshot shows the change in the median percentiles of 7 -day average flows for 7 -day period from last week (with last week's U.S. Drought Monitor in the background). In other words, at a given site, take last week's median percentile and compare it to this week's median percentile. Sites in red indicate a decrease in the median percentile from last week to this week (suggesting a decline in streamflow). Sites in blue indicate an increase in the median percentile from last week to this week (suggesting an improvement decline in streamflow). The size of the circles indicates the general range in percentile increase or decrease (note legend to left of the map). File Edit View Bookmarks Insert Selection Tools Window Help rc r + 1:3,680,375 OdA xv r" Editor ............................................................................................................................................. ..............................' x Manual DM maps Previous manual DM maps USGS real -time sites (March 2006) USGS discontinued streamflow sites (2005 wy) NOAA_NC_observer_sites climate_div arc Roads Streams and lakes city _100k polygon quad-24k polygon HUCs Basins (65 sites selected for drought assessmer Basins > 30yrs total (89 sites as of Mar2006) 1 +1 2 outline_500k polygon +1 ❑ physio_500k polygon +1 ❑ Geology +1 ❑ slope_30m_int +1 ❑ landcover_30m +1 ❑ hydrogeology AVG_WELL_V +1 ❑ adjstate_100k polygon -1 ❑ USDM GIS layers + 2 usdm110726 +' ❑ usdm110719 +; ❑ usdm110712 n m, Display I Source I Selection I I'D 0' �- I Drawing ❑ A Arial1___ B I U A + -- Ground Water -- Please visit the Climate Response Network page at http: / /groundwaterwatch. usqs. gov /StateMapsNet.asp ?ncd= crn &sc =37 (map shown below) for more information on 10 ground -water conditions at selected USGS observation wells in North Carolina. ok AWES VIRGINIA �kaunto t ,.�h4110 te�v e ` 17 : " "" ¢ �Warsauu Logan Ta,ppah "annock Atlantic into Salv a " Bedtle e owl ham' �Welo U"nio, L' bUY ° Whitetane Beach 60 , UamaJ HLigh ' o j {�� 9�, r`Easiville P asking �anok" „ it grt New Virginia 7 Explanation - Percentile classy �. ......ee __ New <10 1024 25-75 75-90 >90 New Not Bel' ..... — - ....... " Low hrluch Below Bel¢w Normal l ove hrluGl l cve� High Ranked Shown below are the hydrographs at four selected wells across North Carolina... real -time page for USGS ground water data in NC is available at http: / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /current ?tvpe =qw (MOUNTAINS) NC -144 at Blantyre in Transylvania County (http: / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv / ?site no= 351808082374302 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw) 11 12 USES 351 080823 '430 TR-065 (NC-144) AT BLANTYRE, NC (REGOLITH) 28.00 2119.00 CU Q. 28.50 2118.50 4J 29.00 z 2118.00 0 (U (U L ,-I = m 29.50 CU L (U 2117.50 4J L 30.00 CU 4J m 2117.00 4J CL C 30.50 Jul Jul Jul Jul 09 16 23 30 2011 2011 2011 2011 ---- Provisional Data Subject to Revision ---- 12 (WESTERN PIEDMONT) NC -193, Piedmont RS near Barber in Rowan County (http: / /waterdata .usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv / ?dd cd =01 72019 00003 &format =imq default &site no= 354057080362601 &set to qscale v =0 &begin date = 20070319) 13 USES 351 0808237430 TR -065 (SIC -144) AT BLANTYRE, HC (RE OLITH a 27.E 2129.9 m Q. a, 28.9 2119.9 0 29 +0 2118.9 0 z Do ' c 39 +9 2117.9 t > M r 31.9 2116.9 r 0 J 32 +$ 2115.9 4 4J C6 L Gi Q p 33.9 2114.9 +} M >- J r H G 34 +0 0 L Sep Now Jan Mar May Jul 2919 2919 2911 2911 2911 2911 — Daily nean depth to water level Period of provisional data Period of approved data (WESTERN PIEDMONT) NC -193, Piedmont RS near Barber in Rowan County (http: / /waterdata .usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv / ?dd cd =01 72019 00003 &format =imq default &site no= 354057080362601 &set to qscale v =0 &begin date = 20070319) 13 14 SGS 3540 x'0803 01 Rte -149 NC -193) PIEDMONT RS 1 NR BARBER (RE OLIT m C 7 99 + 671 +99 F y 7 +59 679 +59 4 �} } Lo �F z Q m 8 +$$ 679 +$$ 0 G] L m L CU Q 4J to } C: -'1 i 8 +59 669 +5$ L 4J CU 4J L 4 � C C p 9 +$$ ,... 669 +$$ 7 Jul Jul Jul Jul Lo 99 16 23 39 2911 2911 2911 2911 - - -- Provisional Data Subject to Revision - - -- 0 Measured depth to water level — Depth to water level 14 (EASTERN PIEDMONT) NC -126 at Chapel Hill in Orange County ( http:/ /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv/ ?site no= 355522079043001 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw) SGS 354057080362601 Rte -149 (SIC -193) PIEDMONT RS 1 NR BARBER (RE OLIT a 6.00 672.00 1 0 CU c 4J 6.50 671,50 m 45.00 y 7.00 466.50 671.00 Do L) z 45.10 Q0 7.50 670.50 z 40 -1 8.00 670.00 y L 4J C6 L Gi p 8.50 4 45.30 669.50 J 466.20 L 4� m -J H r � a 9.00 669.00 L 466.10 Sep Now Jan Mar May Jul 2010 2010 2011 2011 2011 2011 — Daily nean depth to water level Period of provisional data 45.50 Period of approved data (EASTERN PIEDMONT) NC -126 at Chapel Hill in Orange County ( http:/ /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv/ ?site no= 355522079043001 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw) 15 USGS 355522079 143001 OR -069 (NC-126) AT CHAPEL HILL, H (RE t LITH) 44,90 466.60 c CU 45.00 466.50 45.10 466.40 z 41 45.20 466.30 4 45.30 .... 466.20 L 4� �} � Qy 45.40 466.10 O L Gi 45.50 466.00 +4 CL G] C � d L L 45.60 465.90 0 Jul Jul Jul Jul 09 16 23 30 2011 2011 2011 2011 - - -- Provisional Data Subject to Revision - - -- 15 (COASTAL PLAIN) NC -160 near Simpson in Pitt County ( http:/ /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv/ ?site no= 353219077153801 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw) 16 USGS 3555 079043001 OR -069 (NC -126) AT CHAPEL HILL, H (RE t LITH) a 41.0 m 470.0 S Q 42•$ 0 469.0 m y 43.9 z 4 C4. 0 468.9 s or 44,8 2 cu } 467.8 -W C6 45.0 L cu >- 466.$ H M a 46.0 L Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul 2010 2019 2911 2011 2911 2911 — Daily nean depth to water level Period of provisional data Period of approved data (COASTAL PLAIN) NC -160 near Simpson in Pitt County ( http:/ /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv/ ?site no= 353219077153801 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw) 16 17 USES 353219077153801 PI-532 (NC-160) NR IMP ON, NC (SURFICIAL,) C 5.0 4J - 51.0 O F 5.5 - 50.5 0] 6.0 4 U I - 50.0 Lo z 0 6.5 CU - 49.5 (U L 7.0 m L - 49.0 F-1 CU DO Q -W 7.5 CU - 48.5 L 8.0 CU - 48.0 C6 8.5 Jul Jul Jul Jul L 09 16 23 30 Lo 2011 2011 2011 2011 ---- Provisional Data Subject to Revision - - -- - Depth to water level A Value exceeds "standard difference" threshold. 17 18 USGS 353 19077153801 PI -532 (NC-160) NR SIMPSON, N URFI IAL) O 1 +$ yy +$ CU Q- 2 ry �y .0 54 +$ S 41 o% 3 +0 +$ 52 +$ 41 0 5 +0 51 0 +} +$ i a 6 +9 CU 59 +$ }y 7.0 m r-I -W 4g +9 L C6 Q 8 Gi P +9 48 +9 s 9 H o +$ Sep Now Jan Mar May Jul C 2918 2919 2911 2911 2911 2911 0 — Daily nean depth to water level Period of approved data Period of provisional data — Lowest recorded water level prior to MY2911 (8 +97 ft Oct 23,24, 2997) 18