20051457 Ver 1_RE USGS streamflow and ground-water conditions in NC through Monday November 14.msg_20111115

Strickland, Bev
From: Fransen, Tom [tom.fransen @ncdenr.gov]
Sent: Tuesday, November 15, 2011 2:43 PM
To: Young, Sarah
Cc: Peele, Linwood; Reeder, Tom
Subject: RE: USGS streamflow and ground -water conditions in NC through Monday, November 14
Sarah,
Some rain moving across NC Wednesday night and Thursday, but will not be a big rain maker. There will be
similar pattern next Monday or Tuesday. General 1 and 2 week forecast above normal temperatures and below
normal rainfall.
The areas of concern continue to be the SW mountains and SW Piedmont.
This is a screen shot of the agreed upon changes for this week. Minor changes to DO and expansion of D! in
Western NC.
Let me know if you have any questions.
Tom
From: Young, Sarah
Sent: Tuesday, November 15, 2011 12:23 PM
To: Fransen, Tom
Subject: Fwd: USGS streamflow and ground -water conditions in NC through Monday, November 14
Tom: please send me a quick summary of what was discussed on the drought call after it occurs. Thanks so
much, Sarah
Sent from my Verizon Wireless 4GLTE smartphone
- - - -- Forwarded message - - - --
From: "John C Weaver" <[e-mail]>
To: "Peele, Linwood" [e-mail]>
Cc: " Ashley. E. Hatchell@us ace. army. mil" < Ashley. E. Hatchell@us ace. army. mil>, "[e-mail]"
<[e-mail] >, "Haines, Brian" <[e-mail] >, "Lane, David"
<[e-mail] >, "Owen, Debra" <[e-mail] >, "[e-mail]"
<[e-mail] >, " ga alg leh@duke- energy.com" <ga alg leh@duke- energy.com >,
"[e-mail]" <[e-mail] >, "[e-mail]"
<[e-mail] >, 'Brady, Harold M." <[e-mail] >, "Kritzer, Jamie"

<[e-mail] >, "[e-mail]" <[e-mail] >, "[e-mail]"
<[e-mail] >, "Prevette, Jim" <[e-mail] >, "Hoffmann, Jucilene"
<[e-mail] >, "[e-mail]" <[e-mail] >, "Peele, Linwood"
[e-mail] >, " Michael. A. Young@ s aw02.usace. army. mil"
< Michael. A. Young@ saw02.usace. army. mil>, "[e-mail]"
<[e-mail] >, "Orbon, Mike" <mike. orbon@ncdenr. gov>, "Sarwar, Neelufa"
<[e-mail] >, "Patricia. Tanner@noaa. gov" <[e-mail] >,
"[e-mail]" <Peter. Corrigan@noaa. gov>, "[e-mail]"
<[e-mail] >, "[e-mail]" <[e-mail] >, "[e-mail]"
<[e-mail] >, "Young, Sarah" <[e-mail] >, "[e-mail]"
<[e-mail] >, "Fransen, Tom" <[e-mail] >, "Reeder, Tom"
<[e-mail] >, "[e-mail]" <[e-mail] >, "Lawrence, Torey"
<[e-mail] >, "Cox, Vernon N' <[e-mail] >, "Munden, Wayne"
<[e-mail] >, "Yonts, Woody" <[e-mail] >, 'Brian Fuchs"
<[e-mail] >, "[e-mail]" <[e-mail] >, "Kathleen
Carroll" <[e-mail] >, "Darin Figurskey" <Darin.Fi [e-mail] >, "Glenn Carrin"
<[e-mail] >, "Yonts, Woody" <[e-mail]>
Subject: USGS streamflow and ground -water conditions in NC through Monday, November 14
Date: Tue, Nov 15, 2011 11:11 am
NC Drought advisory group,
Very little to no precipitation fell across all of North Carolina during the past week with the highest amounts indicated in
the 0.25 to 0.5 -inch range in parts of Cherokee, Graham, and Swain Counties (http://water.weather.gov/precip
lack of rainfall is reflected in the streamflow conditions depicted on the current real -time streamflow map
(http:Hwaterwatch.usgs.gov/ new / ?m= real &r =nc &w= real %2Cmap). While a mix of conditions in the normal and below -
normal ranges is visible across most of the state, the extent of below - normal conditions appears to be expanding. The
map indicates a number of sites across the state with streamflows in the 'less than 10th percentile" range, most notably in
the Broad and Catawba River basins. Examination of the 28 -day average streamflow map
(http: / /waterwatch.usgs.gov/ new /index.php ?m= pa28d &r =nc &w =map) echoes the low streamflow conditions in the Broad
River basin with several gages in the 'less than 10th percentile" range. Others areas with "less than 10th percentile"
streamflow conditions that need continued monitoring include the Sand Hills and southern Coastal Plain, southwest
mountains, and northern Piedmont.
As of November 13 (Sunday), streamflow conditions indicate 34 percent of sites across North Carolina have percentiles
for 7 -day average flows falling below the 25th percentile for the calendar date (see graph below). This percentage
suggests declines in overall streamflow relative to 18 percent just a week ago.
Water levels at the 10 Blue Ridge, Piedmont, and Sand Hills observations wells are depicted on the Climate Response
Network in North Carolina (http: / /ogw01.er.usgs.gov /crn /StateMaps /NC.html) in the normal range for 7 wells, below
normal for 1 well near Cruso in Haywood County
(http: // qroundwaterwatch .usgs.gov /AWLSites. asp ?S = 352315082484401 &ncd =crn), and continued much below normal for
2 wells:
well near Marston in Scotland County
(http: // qroundwaterwatch .usgs.gov /AWLSites.asp ?S= 345812079313401 &ncd =crn)
well at Chapel Hill in Orange County
(http: // qroundwaterwatch .usgs.gov /AWLSites.asp ?S= 355522079043001 &ncd =crn).
The water levels for the 6 wells in the Coastal Plain are depicted in the normal range for 5 wells and continued below
normal for the 1 well near Grantham in Wayne County

(http: // qroundwaterwatch .usgs.gov /AWLSites.asp ?S= 353219077153801 &ncd =crn).
Draft 1 for this week's release was available as of Monday afternoon with no changes yet indicated for North Carolina.
Changes to the NC depictions in last week's USDM included trimming of the D1 /D0 in the upper Neuse and Tar River
basins.
Given the lack of precipitation across North Carolina last week (http:/ /water.weather.gov /precip /) and the overall
streamflows (http: / /waterwatch.usgs.gov/ new / ?m= real &r =nc &w= real %2Cmap), conditions that warrant deteriorations in
drought classification may be developing. However, with an impending rain event forecast across much of North Carolina,
this may justify holding off on any changes( ?).
Particular areas that may warrant some consideration for worsening depictions include the southwest mountains (Little
Tennessee and Hiwassee basins) as well as the northwest Piedmont and foothills region where 30 -day percent of normal
precipitation appears to be dropping into the 25 -50 percent range. Other areas with 30 -day percent of normal
precipitation in the 25 -50 range includes some parts of the Sand Hills region, southern Coastal Plain, and the northeast
corner of the state. Water levels at the Elizabeth City well are depicted in the normal range, but have been in a fairly
steep declining pattern since mid October
(http: // qroundwaterwatch .usgs.gov /AWLSites.asp ?S= 361829076163201 &ncd =crn).
We're shifting into the time of year where natural and man -made demands on the hydrologic system are declining,
evaporation is down, and agricultural activity has declined. Thus it becomes challenging to identify impacts from the
dryness other than in the streams and groundwater.
Comments and opinions welcome...
Thanks.
JCWeaver
****************************** * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * **
J. Curtis Weaver, Hydrologist, PE
USGS North Carolina Water Science Center
3916 Sunset Ridge Road
Raleigh, NC 27607
Phone: [phone] H Fax: [phone]
Mobile: [phone]
E -mail address -- jcweaver(c�usgs.gov
Internet address --.http://nc.water.usgs.gov
****************************** * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * **
-- USDM draft (if available) --
As of Monday afternoon, draft 1 for this week's version was available with no changes yet indicated for North Carolina.
Anthony Artusa, meteorologist with the NOAA Climate Prediction Center in Camp Springs, Maryland, is the USDM author
for this week's release. In the email accompanying draft 1, he made no specific comments concerning the Carolinas
region.

USDM archive (you can select North Carolina from the drop -down box near the top, a quick way to see the last two USDM
releases):
http: / /drought.unl.edu /dm /archive.html
-- Observed precipitation --
Sources of precipitation totals are available from the following:
(1) USGS rainfall totals (sorted by county) for the last 7 days at
http : / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /current ?tvpe = precip &group kev= county cd
(2) State Climate Office of North Carolina at http : / /www.nc - climate.ncsu.edu /mpe departure/
(3) NOAA NWS's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service at http://water.weather.gov/preci
shown below pulled from the NOAA NWS's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service at

http : / /water.weather.gov /precip/
North Carolina: Current 7 —Day Observed Precipitation
Valid at 11/14/2011 1200 UTC— Created 11/14/11 23:55 UTC
-- Streamflow --
Focusing on current streamflow conditions...
Current conditions are depicted as real -time, 7 -day, 14 -day, and 28 -day flows available in the WaterWatch series of maps
at:
http://waterwatch.usgs.gov/classic/?m=real&r=nc&w=real%2Cmap
Current conditions...
5

Tuesday, Mouenber 15, 2011 08 :30ET
WIM
MUSIGS
Last week's conditions...
Tuesday, Mouenber 08, 2011 08 :30ET
When viewing the USGS WaterWatch streamflow information, you can hover your cursor over a site and a pop -up box
Explanation - Percentile classes
......,.
X10
Lew
1024 5 -7 76 -90 >
�
............ - �: High Idol- ranked l
M N ch beds ur
- ---- ---- -�
Be lbw al P trr� al Al y g % asc.l� aD0VV,
mar €Y I r� rm l
When viewing the USGS WaterWatch streamflow information, you can hover your cursor over a site and a pop -up box

appears with various pieces of information, including the percentile for the current streamflow AND the current percentage
of mean and median for the calendar date.
Highlighting current flows (November 15 morning) at some selected gaging stations (obtained from
http : / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /current / ?type =flow ):
Site number
Site name (and County)
Flow Nov 08
Current
flow
(% of)
Median Nov 15
02053200
Potecasi Creek near Union (Hertford) --
207
cfs
97
cfs
262%
37 cfs
02106500
Black River near Tomahawk (Sampson) --
398
cfs
217
cfs
650
334 cfs
02085500
Flat River at Bahama (Durham) --
23
cfs
3.2
cfs
12%
26 cfs
02096960
Haw River near Bynum (Chatham) --
755
cfs
256
cfs
73%
351 cfs
02115360
Yadkin River at Enon (Yadkin) --
1,230
cfs
1,010
cfs
62%
1,610 cfs
02152100
First Broad River near Casar (Cleveland) --
25
cfs
24
cfs
47%
51 cfs
03451500
French Broad River at Asheville (Buncombe) --
904
cfs
748
cfs
59%
1,260 cfs
03550000
Valley River at Tomotla (Cherokee) --
59
cfs
59
cfs
59%
100 cfs
Focusing on the 7-day average flows...
Visit the WaterWatch pages at http: / /waterwatch.usgs.gov /classic / ?r =nc to get the most recent data for sites of interest.
Durations plots for selected individual USGS stations can be accessed at http: / /nc.water.usgs.gov /drought /duration.html
The OVERALL 7 -day average flows by HUC map
(http:Hwaterwatch.usgs.gov /classic / ?m= pa07d &r= nc &w =pa07d nwc %2Cmap) are depicted in the image below:
Monday, Houenber 14, 2011
I, SGS
7

To help provide more detail by major basin, the BELOW NORMAL 7 -day average flows by HUC map
(http: / /waterwatch.usgs.gov /classic /index.php ?map type =drvw &state =nc) are depicted in the image below:
Monday, Houenber 14, 2011
As of November 13 (Sunday), the graph of 7 -day flow percentiles shown below indicates 34 percent of sites across
North Carolina have percentiles for 7 -day average flows falling below the 25th percentile for the calendar date. And 9
percent of sites across North Carolina are shown as having 7 -day average flows below the 10th percentile or reaching
new minimum for calendar date.
Compared to November 06 (Sunday), the current values indicate declines in overall streamflow conditions during course
of the past week, considering 18% of sites across the state were below the 25th percentile and 3% of sites were below
10th percentile and /or reaching new minimum for the calendar date.
Below is a graph developed from the 7 -day average flow summary table available at:
http: / /waterwater.usgs.gov/ classic / ?m= pa07d &r= nc &w= paO7d %2Ctable

1
�f
f
Less than 25th percentile
Less than 10th percentile
New min forthe clay
Percentage of sites in North Carolina with 7 -day
indicated percentile range or love
ON
AN
Date
Another measure of the streamflow conditions is available from maps of median percentiles for 7 -day average flows for
the previous 7 -, 14- 30 -, 60 -, and 90 -day periods updated through November 14 (Monday). These maps are intended to
provide some kind of "long- term" index of the streamflow conditions (not available through the USGS WaterWatch pages)
that is mapped according to the classification scheme for streamflow used by the U.S. Drought Monitor. Map images (via
the above URL) showing the median percentiles for 7 -day average flows for previous 7 and 30 days are shown below.
http: / /nc. water. usgs .gov /drought/dm- streamflow.html
0

Previous 7 days
Monday, November 14, 2011
Previous 30 days
Monday, November 14, 2011
Explanation
No - No Drought ( >30 percentile)
DO - Abnormally Dry (21 to 30 percentile)
D1 - Moderate Drought (11 to 20 percentile)
D2 - Severe Drought (6 to 10 percentile)
D3 - Extreme Drought (3 to 5 percentile)
D4 - Exceptional Drought (0 to 2 percentile)
n/d - Not determined
Unregulated Regulated
a
IM
D
❑
10

The following ArcMap screenshot shows the change in the median percentiles of 7 -day average flows for 7 -day period
from last week (with last week's U.S. Drought Monitor in the background). In other words, at a given site, take last
week's median percentile and compare it to this week's median percentile. Sites in red indicate a decrease in the median
percentile from last week to this week (suggesting a decline in streamflow). Sites in blue indicate an increase in the
median percentile from last week to this week (suggesting an improvement decline in streamflow). The size of the circles
indicates the general range in percentile increase or decrease (note legend to left of the map).
File Edit View Bookmarks Insert Selection Tools 'Window Help
Ei Leers
❑► Automated DM maps (short string)
E] ❑1 (weekly change in 7 -day median percen'
® gall othervalues?
10 to 25 percentile increase
5 to 10 p•ercentile increase
0 to 5 percentile increase
No percentile change
4 to 5 percentile decrease
5 to 10 p•ercentile decrease
IF
10 to 25 percentile decrease
r
x
mi
t
Ei Leers
❑► Automated DM maps (short string)
E] ❑1 (weekly change in 7 -day median percen'
® gall othervalues?
10 to 25 percentile increase
25 to 50 percentile decrease
01 Greaterthan 50 percentile decrease
E
EM
Display Source I Selection Catalog
y B �r U7 _i
Drawing', T € [ a,f� � 1 ❑ ' � � [ a�� anal T � Itt Tf it J[ 41 T T � �
-- Ground Water --
11
5 to 10 p•ercentile increase
0 to 5 percentile increase
No percentile change
4 to 5 percentile decrease
5 to 10 p•ercentile decrease
10 to 25 percentile decrease
25 to 50 percentile decrease
01 Greaterthan 50 percentile decrease
E
EM
Display Source I Selection Catalog
y B �r U7 _i
Drawing', T € [ a,f� � 1 ❑ ' � � [ a�� anal T � Itt Tf it J[ 41 T T � �
-- Ground Water --
11

Please visit the Climate Response Network page at
http: / /groundwaterwatch. usqs. gov /StateMapsNet.asp ?ncd= crn &sc =37 (map shown below) for more information on
ground -water conditions at selected USGS observation wells in North Carolina.
ONES VIRGINIA ft�unty �I"frloCte�� a '�� 17 Uniarsauu
ok p'f
Logan 4 pap �a,ppAhannock Atlantic
into
Bedtle $alud'a 4
° [min harp t g'�' ° White $tone Beach
4L 1, Welo Unio L k]ur, ?:
We
o nial ki igh E,ashriIIe
R asks gan4k F� Ori New Virginia
7
Explanation - Percentile class
�.
......ee __
New <10 1024 25-75 75-90 >90 New Not
Bel' ..... — - ....... "
Low hrluch Below Bel¢w Normal l ove hrluGl l cve� High Ranked
Shown below are the hydrographs at four selected wells across North Carolina... real -time page for USGS ground water
data in NC is available at http: / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /current ?tvpe =qw
(MOUNTAINS) NC -144 at Blantyre in Transylvania County
(http: / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv / ?site no= 351808082374302 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw)
12

13
USES
351 080823 '430
TR-065
(NC-144) AT BLANTYRE, NC
(REGOLITH)
33.20
4J
2113.80
CU
Q.
33.40
2113.60
33.60
z
2113.40
33.80
(U L
m
2113.20
L
(U
4J
34.00
CU
D
O
2113.00
L
CU
34.20
4J
m
4-)
C
CL
2112.80
O
34.40
L
0
Oct
Oct
Nov Nov
22
29
05 12
2011
2011
2011 2011
---- Provisional Data Subject to Revision ----
13

(WESTERN PIEDMONT) NC -193, Piedmont RS near Barber in Rowan County
(http: / /waterdata .usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv / ?dd cd =01 72019 00003 &format =imq default &site no= 354057080362601 &set to
qscale v =0 &begin date = 20070319)
14
USES
351 0808237430 TR -065 (SIC -144) AT BLANTYRE,
HC (RE OLITH
a
27.9
2129.9
m
Q
Q.
fyp �y
28.9
ry �y �y
2119.9
y
4
4.
ey�y �y
29.0
ry +� p �y
2116.9
S
d
8
30.0
2117.9
z
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31.9
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}
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2114.9
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M
J
H
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a
35.0
L
Jan Mar
May Jul Sep
Now
2911 2911
2911 2911 2911
2911
— Daily nean depth to water
level Period of provisional data
Period of approved data
(WESTERN PIEDMONT) NC -193, Piedmont RS near Barber in Rowan County
(http: / /waterdata .usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv / ?dd cd =01 72019 00003 &format =imq default &site no= 354057080362601 &set to
qscale v =0 &begin date = 20070319)
14

15
SGS 3540 x'0803 01 RO-149 (NC-193) PIEDMONT RS 1 NR BARBER (REGOLITI
7.88
670.20
C
4J
CU
CU
Q.
0
8.00
670.00
4J
8.20
669.80
z
(U
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m
,-I =
8.40
66!9.60
CU
L
(U
CU
L
8.60
669.40
CU
CL
C
L
8.80
669.20
0
Oct Oct Nov Nov
22 29 05 12
2011 2011 2011 2011
---- Provisional Data Subject to Revision ----
15

(EASTERN PIEDMONT) NC -126 at Chapel Hill in Orange County
( http:/ /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv/ ?site no= 355522079043001 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw)
16
SGS 354057080362601 Rte -149 (SIC -193) PIEDMONT RS 1 NR BARBER (RE OLIT
a
672 +0
m
6 +0
.0
Q.
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s
J
r
H
CE
G
9.5
668 +5
0
0
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Now
CL
2011 2911 2911 2011 2911 2911
— Daily nean depth to water level Period of provisional data
Period of approved data
(EASTERN PIEDMONT) NC -126 at Chapel Hill in Orange County
( http:/ /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv/ ?site no= 355522079043001 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw)
16

(COASTAL PLAIN) NC -160 near Simpson in Pitt County
( http:/ /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv/ ?site no= 353219077153801 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw)
17
USGS 3555 079043001 OR -069 (NC -126) AT CHAPEL HILL, H (RE t LITH)
a
43.0
468.5
w
cu
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Q.
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468.9
44.9
467.5
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s
45.9
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466.9
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Q
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°
46.9
465.5
s
J
r
H
�
a
46.5
465.9
L
Jan Mar May Jul
Sep Now
2911 2911 2911 2911
2911 2911
— Daily nean depth to water level Period of provisional data
Period of approved data
(COASTAL PLAIN) NC -160 near Simpson in Pitt County
( http:/ /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv/ ?site no= 353219077153801 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw)
17

18
USES 353219077153801 PI-532 (NC-160) NR IMP ON, NC (SURFICIAL,)
2.00
C
54.00
CU
2.50
53.50
m
3.00
z
53.00
(U L
m
3.50
CU
L
(U
D
0
4J
52.50
L
4.00
CU
4
CL
52.00
4.50
Oct Oct Nov Nov
22 29 05 12
2011 2011 2011 2011
---- Provisional Data Subject to Revision ----
18

19
USGS 353 19077153801 PI -532
(NC-160)
NR SIMPSON, N URFI IAL)
O
4ti
1.9
55.0
Q-
0
2 +9
54 *0
3.0
53.0
0%
#$
52.0
41
0 5.0
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0
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} CU
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-W
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Jan Mar
May
Jul Sep Now
2011 2911
2911
2911 2911 2911
— Daily
nean depth to water level
Period
of approved data
Period
of provisional data
— Lowest
recorded water level
prior to
MY2011 (8.97 ft Oct 23,24, 2007)
19