HomeMy WebLinkAbout20051457 Ver 1_Emails_20111122Mueller, Amanda
From: John C Weaver <jcweaver @usgs.gov>
Sent: Tuesday, November 22, 20118:58 AM
To: John C Weaver; Anthony Artusa
Cc: Allison.Wash @va.usda.gov; Ashley.E.Hatchell @usace.army.mil; Brian Fuchs;
brian.cullen @noaa.gov; Brian.Haines @ncdenr.gov; Darin Figurskey;
david.lane @ncdenr.gov; debra.owen @ncdenr.gov; eric.seymour @noaa.gov;
gagalleh @duke - energy.com; garry_grabow @ncsu.edu; george.mathews @noaa.gov;
Glenn Carrin; harold.m.brady @ncdenr.gov; jamie.kritzer @ncdenr.gov;
Jeff.Orrock @noaa.gov; jim.prevette @ncdenr.gov; jucilene.hoffmann @ncdenr.gov;
Kathleen Carroll; Lara.Pagano @noaa.gov; Linwood Peele;
Michael .A.Young @saw02.usace.army.mil; michael.moneypenny @noaa.gov;
mike.orbon @ncdenr.gov; neelufa.sarwar @ncdenr.gov; Patricia.Tanner @noaa.gov;
Peter.Corrigan @noaa.gov; richard.neuherz @noaa.gov; rwall @ncem.org;
ryan_boyles @ncsu.edu; sarah.young @ncdenr.gov; todd.hamill @noaa.gov;
Tom.Fransen @ncdenr.gov; tom.reeder @ncdenr.gov; tony_dorn @nass.usda.gov;
Torey_Lawrence @nass.usda.gov; Vernon.Cox @ncagr.gov;
Wayne.Munden @ncdenr.gov; woody.yonts @ncdenr.gov
Subject: NC DROUGHT TELECOM NOVEMBER 22 CANCELLED... Re: USGS streamflow and
ground -water conditions in NC through Monday, November 21
NC drought group,
I just spoke with Linwood a few minutes ago, and he requested that I send the following note to the drought group and this
week's USDM author (Anthony Artusa).
(1) Due to the shortened schedule for developing this week's USDM release, today's drought telecom has been
CANCELLED.
(2) Based on some pre - telecom conversations and email correspondence, it appears the "status quo" would most likely be
the recommendation were the call to occur.
Therefore, Linwood has asked that I notify everyone concerning today's telecom and to advise the drought author that
"status quo" statewide will be the NC recommendation for this week's release.
Please let us know of any questions or concerns.
Hope everyone's Thanksgiving will be filled with good eats, relaxation, and safe travel.
See you on next week's telecom.
Curtis Weaver
****************************** * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * **
J. Curtis Weaver, Hydrologist, PE
USGS North Carolina Water Science Center
3916 Sunset Ridge Road
Raleigh, NC 27607
Phone: (919) 571 -4043 H Fax: (919) 571 -4041
Mobile: (919) 830 -6235
E -mail address -- jcweaver @usgs.gov
Internet address -- http: / /nc.water.usgs.gov/
****************************** * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * **
From: John C Weaver /WRD /USGS /DOI
To: Linwood Peele <linwood.peele @ncdenr.gov>
Cc: Ashley. E.Hatchell @usace. army. mil, brian.cullen @noaa.gov, Brian. Haines @ncdenr.gov, david.lane @ncdenr.gov, debra.owen @ncdenr.gov,
eric.seymour @noaa.gov, gagalleh @duke - energy.com, garry_grabow @ncsu.edu, george.mathews @noaa.gov, harold.m.brady @ncdenr.gov,
jamie.kritzer @ncdenr.gov, jcweaver @usgs.gov, Jeff.Orrock @noaa.gov, jim.prevette @ncdenr.gov, jucilene.hoffmann @ncdenr.gov,
Lara.Pagano @noaa.gov, linwood.peele @ncdenr.gov, Michael .A.Young @saw02.usace.army.mil, michael.moneypenny @noaa.gov,
mike.orbon @ncdenr.gov, neelufa.sarwar @ncdenr.gov, Patricia.Tanner @noaa.gov, Peter.Corrigan @noaa.gov, richard.neuherz @noaa.gov,
rwall @ncem.org, ryan_boyles @ncsu.edu, sarah.young @ncdenr.gov, todd.hamill @noaa.gov, Tom.Fransen @ncdenr.gov, tom.reeder @ncdenr.gov,
tony_dorn @nass.usda.gov, Torey_Lawrence @nass.usda.gov, Vernon. Cox @ncagr.gov, Wayne.Munden @ncdenr.gov, woody.yonts @ncdenr.gov, Brian
Fuchs <bfuchs @UNLNOTES.UNL.EDU >, Allison.Wash @va.usda.gov, Kathleen Carroll <Kathleen. Carroll @noaa.gov >, Darin Figurskey
<Darin.Figurskey @noaa.gov >, Glenn Carrin <Glenn.Carrin @noaa.gov >, "Yonts, Woody" <woody.yonts @ncdenr.gov>
Date: 11/21/2011 10:58 PM
Subject: USGS streamflow and ground -water conditions in NC through Monday, November 21
NC Drought advisory group,
Precipitation across North Carolina during the past week produced a pattern of "have and have nots" with the split across
a line running from the Mecklenburg /Union Counties line northeast towards Northampton County
(http:/ /water.weather.gov /precip /). West of this line, widespread precipitation totals were 0.5+ inch with the highest
amounts (2+ inches) from Gaston County through Davidson County into the Triad region. East of this line, the totals were
less than 0.5 inch with exception of extreme eastern Coastal Plain (including the central Outer Banks) where some totals
exceeded 2 inches.
Last week's rainfall is reflected in the streamflow conditions depicted on the current real -time streamflow map
(http:Hwaterwatch.usgs.gov/ new / ?m= real &r =nc &w= real %2Cmap). A mix of conditions in the normal and below - normal
ranges continues to be visible across most of the state; however, the extent of below - normal conditions noted last week is
not as widespread on this week's map. Further, the number of gages with flows in the "less than 10th percentile" range
also has decreased for the moment., most notably in the Broad and Catawba River basins as well as across the Sand
Hills region and northern Piedmont. Examination of the 28 -day average streamflow map
(http: / /waterwatch.usgs.gov/ new /index.php ?m= pa28d &r =nc &w =map) likewise indicates some minor decreases in the
number of streamgages with conditions in the "less than 10th percentile" range.
As of November 20 (Sunday), streamflow conditions indicate 17 percent of sites across North Carolina have percentiles
for 7 -day average flows falling below the 25th percentile for the calendar date (see graph below). This percentage
suggests improvements in overall streamflow relative to 34 percent just a week ago.
Water levels at the 10 Blue Ridge, Piedmont, and Sand Hills observations wells depicted on the Climate Response
Network in North Carolina (http: / /ogw01.er.usgs.gov /crn /StateMaps /NC.html) continue to echo the patterns noted last
week. That is, in the normal range for 7 wells, below normal for 1 well near Cruso in Haywood County
(http: // qroundwaterwatch .usgs.gov /AWLSites. asp ?S = 352315082484401 &ncd =crn), and continued much below normal for
2 wells:
• well near Marston in Scotland County
(http: // qroundwaterwatch .usgs.gov /AWLSites.asp ?S= 345812079313401 &ncd =crn)
• well at Chapel Hill in Orange County
(http: // qroundwaterwatch .usgs.gov /AWLSites.asp ?S= 355522079043001 &ncd =crn).
The water levels for the 6 wells in the Coastal Plain likewise continues to be depicted in the normal range for 5 wells and
continued below normal for the 1 well near Grantham in Wayne County
(http: // groundwaterwatch .usgs.gov /AWLSites.asp ?S= 353219077153801 &ncd =crn).
Draft 2 for this week's release was available as of late Monday evening with no changes yet indicated for North
Carolina. Changes to the NC depictions in last week's USDM included expansion of D1 in the Broad /Catawba and Little
Tennessee basins as well as some minor DO expansion in the Little Tennessee basin.
As noted last week, we've shifted into the time of year where natural and man -made demands on the hydrologic system
are declining, evaporation is down, and agricultural activity has declined. With the passage of storm systems of varying
size and precipitation amounts across the state, the overall streamflow conditions has been a "roller coaster ride" from
week to week while groundwater levels at some wells have responded to the recent rainfalls and shift in seasons.
Given the rainfall coverage across western North Carolina, it doesn't appear that any deterioration is warranted for that
region in this week's USDM depiction for the state. Even within eastern North Carolina where relatively lower amounts of
rainfall occurred last week, some short-term improvements appears to have occurred in streamflow conditions. Thus
would suggest a recommendation that "status quo" be applied across the state for this week's release.
Comments and opinions welcome...
Thanks.
JCWeaver
****************************** * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * **
J. Curtis Weaver, Hydrologist, PE
USGS North Carolina Water Science Center
3916 Sunset Ridge Road
Raleigh, NC 27607
Phone: (919) 571 -4043 H Fax: (919) 571 -4041
Mobile: (919) 830 -6235
E -mail address -- jcweaver @usgs.gov
Internet address -- http: / /nc.water.usgs.gov/
****************************** * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * **
-- USDM draft (if available) --
As of late Monday evening, draft 2 for this week's version was available with no changes yet indicated for North
Carolina. Anthony Artusa, meteorologist with the NOAA Climate Prediction Center in Camp Springs, Maryland, is again
the USDM author for this week's release. In the email accompanying draft 2, he made no specific comments concerning
the Carolinas region, but did mention his Tuesday focus would include North Carolina. This week's USDM release is on
an accelerated and shortened schedule due to the Thanksgiving holiday.
USDM archive (you can select North Carolina from the drop -down box near the top, a quick way to see the last two USDM
releases):
htto:H drouaht.unl.edu /dm /archive.html
-- Observed precipitation --
Sources of precipitation totals are available from the following:
(1) USGS rainfall totals (sorted by county) for the last 7 days at
http : / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /current ?tvpe = precip &group kev= county cd
(2) State Climate Office of North Carolina at http : / /www.nc - climate.ncsu.edu /mpe departure/
(3) NOAA NWS's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service at http: / /water.weather.gov /precip/
Image shown below pulled from the NOAA NWS's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service at
http : / /water.weather.gov /precip/
North Carolina: Current 7 —Day Observed Precipitation
Valid at 11/21/2011 1200 UTC— Created 11/21/11 21:55 UTC
-- Streamflow --
Focusing on current streamflow conditions...
Current conditions are depicted as real -time, 7 -day, 14 -day, and 28 -day flows available in the WaterWatch series of maps
at:
http://waterwatch.usgs.gov/classic/?m=real&r=nc&w=real%2Cmap
Current conditions...
5
Monday, Houenber 21, 2011 16 :30ET
WIM
MUSIGS
Last week's conditions...
Tuesday, Mouenber 15, 2011 08 :30ET
When viewing the USGS WaterWatch streamflow information, you can hover your cursor over a site and a pop -up box
Explanation - Percentile classes
......,.
X10
Lew
1024 5 -7 76 -90 >
�
............ - �: High Idol- ranked l
O N ch beds ur
- ---- ---- -�
Be lbw al P trr� al Al y g % asc.l�) aD0VV,
mar €Y I r� rm l
When viewing the USGS WaterWatch streamflow information, you can hover your cursor over a site and a pop -up box
appears with various pieces of information, including the percentile for the current streamflow AND the current percentage
of mean and median for the calendar date.
Highlighting current flows (November 21 evening) at some selected gaging stations (obtained from
http : / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /current / ?type =flow ):
Site number Site name (and County)
flow (% of) Median Nov 21
02053200 Potecasi Creek near Union (Hertford) --
cfs 148% 40 cfs
02106500 Black River near Tomahawk (Sampson) --
cfs 490 386 cfs
02085500 Flat River at Bahama (Durham) --
cfs 60% 33 cfs
02096960 Haw River near Bynum (Chatham) --
cfs 1960 328 cfs
02115360 Yadkin River at Enon (Yadkin) --
cfs 82% 1,600 cfs
02152100 First Broad River near Casar (Cleveland) --
cfs 56% 54 cfs
03451500 French Broad River at Asheville (Buncombe) --
cfs 66% 1,380 cfs
03550000 Valley River at Tomotla (Cherokee) --
cfs 1050 111 cfs
rITOTST21 N i WM 4
Flow Nov 15 Current
97 cfs 59
217 cfs 189
3.2 cfs 18
256 cfs 644
1,010 cfs 1,310
24 cfs 30
748 cfs 904
59 cfs 116
Visit the WaterWatch pages at http: / /waterwatch.usgs.gov /classic / ?r =nc to get the most recent data for sites of interest.
Durations plots for selected individual USGS stations can be accessed at http: / /nc.water.usgs.gov /drought /duration.html
The OVERALL 7 -day average flows by HUC map
(http:Hwaterwatch.usgs.gov /classic / ?m= pa07d &r= nc &w =pa07d nwc %2Cmap) are depicted in the image below:
Sunday, Houenber 20, 2011
I, SGS
7
To help provide more detail by major basin, the BELOW NORMAL 7 -day average flows by HUC map
(http: / /waterwatch.usgs.gov /classic /index.php ?map type =drvw &state =nc) are depicted in the image below:
Sunday, Houenber 20, 2011
As of November 20 (Sunday), the graph of 7 -day flow percentiles shown below indicates 17 percent of sites across
North Carolina have percentiles for 7 -day average flows falling below the 25th percentile for the calendar date. And 2
percent of sites across North Carolina are shown as having 7 -day average flows below the 10th percentile or reaching
new minimum for calendar date.
Compared to November 13 (Sunday), the current values indicate improvements in overall streamflow conditions during
course of the past week, considering 34% of sites across the state were below the 25th percentile and 9% of sites were
below 10th percentile and /or reaching new minimum for the calendar date.
Below is a graph developed from the 7 -day average flow summary table available at:
http: / /waterwater.usgs.gov/ classic / ?m= pa07d &r= nc &w= paO7d %2Ctable
1
�f
f
Less than 25th percentile
Less than 10th percentile
New min forthe clay
Percentage of sites in North Carolina with 7 -day
indicated percentile range or love
ON
AN
Date
Another measure of the streamflow conditions is available from maps of median percentiles for 7 -day average flows for
the previous 7 -, 14- 30 -, 60 -, and 90 -day periods updated through November 20 (Sunday). These maps are intended to
provide some kind of "long- term" index of the streamflow conditions (not available through the USGS WaterWatch pages)
that is mapped according to the classification scheme for streamflow used by the U.S. Drought Monitor. Map images (via
the above URL) showing the median percentiles for 7 -day average flows for previous 7 and 30 days are shown below.
http: / /nc. water. usgs .gov /drought/dm- streamflow.html
0
Previous 30 days
Sunday, November 20, 2011
102
Explanation
Unregulated
Regulated
No - No Drought ( >30 percentile)
DO - Abnormally Dry (21 to 30 percentile)
D
❑
D1 - Moderate Drought (11 to 20 percentile)
D2 - Severe Drought (6 to 10 percentile)
r
s'
D3 - Extreme Drought (3 to 5 percentile)
D4 - Exceptional Drought (0 to 2 percentile)
n/d - Not determined
❑
10
ru
' S
The following ArcMap screenshot shows the change in the median percentiles of 7 -day average flows for 7 -day period
from last week (with last week's U.S. Drought Monitor in the background). In other words, at a given site, take last
week's median percentile and compare it to this week's median percentile. Sites in red indicate a decrease in the median
percentile from last week to this week (suggesting a decline in streamflow). Sites in blue indicate an increase in the
median percentile from last week to this week (suggesting an improvement decline in streamflow). The size of the circles
indicates the general range in percentile increase or decrease (note legend to left of the map).
File Edit `view Bookmarks Insert Selection Tools 'Window Help
IF
Ei Leers
❑► Automated DM maps (short string)
E] ❑1 (weekly change in 7 -day median percen'
® gall othervalues?
fq 10 to 25 percentile increase
25 to 50 percentile decrease
Greaterthan 50 percentile decrease
E
Display Source Selection-]
Drawing r} ❑ trial �. 1 B 1 U w _i •
-- Ground Water --
11
5 to 10 p•ercentile increase
0 to 5 percentile increase
No percentile change
4 to 5 percentile decrease
5 to 10 p•ercentile decrease
10 to 25 percentile decrease
25 to 50 percentile decrease
Greaterthan 50 percentile decrease
E
Display Source Selection-]
Drawing r} ❑ trial �. 1 B 1 U w _i •
-- Ground Water --
11
Please visit the Climate Response Network page
at http: / /groundwaterwatch. usgs. gov /StateMapsNet.asp ?ncd= crn &sc =37 (map shown below) for more information on
ground -water conditions at selected USGS observation wells in North Carolina.
ONES VIRGINIA ft�unty �I"frloCte�� a '�� 17 Uniarsauu
ok p'f
Logan 4 pap �a,ppAhannock Atlantic
into
Bedtle $alud'a 4
° [min harp t g'�' ° White $tone Beach
4L 1, Welo Unio L k]ur, ?:
We
o nial ki igh E,ashriIIe
R asks gan4k F� Ori New Virginia
7
Explanation - Percentile class
�.
......ee __
New <10 1024 25-75 75-90 >90 New Not
Bel' ..... — - ....... "
Low hrluch Below Bel¢w Normal l ove hrluGl l cve� High Ranked
Shown below are the hydrographs at four selected wells across North Carolina... real -time page for USGS ground water
data in NC is available at http: / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /current ?tvpe =qw
(MOUNTAINS) NC -144 at Blantyre in Transylvania County
(http: / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv / ?site no= 351808082374302 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw)
12
13
USES
351 080823 '430
TR-065 (NC-144) AT BLANTYRE, NC
(REGOLITH)
2113.60
CU
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2112.80
CU
-p
m
CL
34.40
C
L
Oct
Nov Nov Nov
29
05 12 19
2011
2011 2011 2011
---- Provisional Data Subject to Revision ----
13
(WESTERN PIEDMONT) NC -193, Piedmont RS near Barber in Rowan County
(http: / /waterdata .usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv / ?dd cd =01 72019 00003 &format =imq default &site no= 354057080362601 &set to
qscale v =0 &begin date = 20070319)
14
USES
351808082374302 TR -065 (SIC -144) AT
BLANTYRE,
HC (RE OLITH
a
27.E
2129.9
m
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Jan Mar Nay Jul
Sep
Nov
2911 2911 2911 2911
2911
2911
— Daily nean depth to water level Period of provisional data
Period of approved data
(WESTERN PIEDMONT) NC -193, Piedmont RS near Barber in Rowan County
(http: / /waterdata .usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv / ?dd cd =01 72019 00003 &format =imq default &site no= 354057080362601 &set to
qscale v =0 &begin date = 20070319)
14
15
SGS 3540 x'0803 01
RO-149 (NC-193)
PIEDMONT RS 1 NR
BARBER
(REGOLITI
6.00
672.00
4J
CU
Q.
6.50
671.50
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7.00
671.00
>
z
7.50
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0
Oct
Nov
Nov
Nov
29
05
12
19
2011
2011
2011
2011
---- Provisional Data Subject to Revision ----
15
(EASTERN PIEDMONT) NC -126 at Chapel Hill in Orange County
( http:/ /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv/ ?site no= 355522079043001 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw)
SGS 3540 x'0803 01 Rte -149 (SIC -193) PIEDMONT RS 1 NR BARBER (RE OLIT
a
USGS
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Jan Mar May Jul Sep Now
CL7
2911 2911 2011 2911 2011 2911
G}
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— Daily nean depth to water level Period of provisional data
Period of approved data
L
O
*'
(EASTERN PIEDMONT) NC -126 at Chapel Hill in Orange County
( http:/ /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv/ ?site no= 355522079043001 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw)
16
USGS
355522079 143001 OR
-069 (NC-126) AT CHAPEL HILL, H
(RE t LITH)
46 +25
465 +25
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Nov Nov Nov
ca
29
05 12 19
2011
2011 2011 2011
- -
-- Provisional data Subject to Revision - - --
Measured
depth to
water level — Depth to water level
16
(COASTAL PLAIN) NC -160 near Simpson in Pitt County
( http:/ /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv/ ?site no= 353219077153801 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw)
17
USGS 355522079 143001 OR -069 (NC-126) AT CHAPEL HILL, H (RE t LITH)
a
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Jan Mar May
Jul Sep Now
2911 2911 2911
2911 2911 2911
— Daily nean depth to water level Period of provisional data
Period of approved data
(COASTAL PLAIN) NC -160 near Simpson in Pitt County
( http:/ /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv/ ?site no= 353219077153801 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw)
17
18
USES 353219077153801 PI-532 (NC-160) NR IMP ON, NC (SURFICIAL,)
2.00
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Oct Nov Nov Nov
29 05 12 19
2011 2011 2011 2011
---- Provisional Data Subject to Revision ----
18
19
USGS 353 19077153801 PI -532 (NC-160)
NR SIMPSON, N
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Jan Mar May
Jul Sep
Now
0
2911 2911 2911
2911 2911
2911
0
— Daily
nean depth to water level
Period
of approved data
Period
of provisional data
— Lowest
recorded water level prior to
MY2911 (8.97 ft Oct 23,24, 2997)
19