20140762 All Versions_ICE Report Final_20130828

INDIRECT AND CUMULATIVE EFFECTS ASSESSMENT
Proposed Widening Project TIP R -2915, WBS 34518.1.1
US 221 from US 421 to NC 88 /US 221 Business in the Town of Jefferson
Watauga and Ashe Counties
June, 2009
Executive Summary
Analysis of the potential indirect and cumulative effects of this project suggests that
development activities in the area will only slightly be affected by the construction of the
project. Although few State and local development regulations exist in the vicinity of
the project, low growth rates, marginal travel time savings, and the lack of water and
sewer along much of the project will mitigate most project impacts.
TIP R -2915 proposes to widen US 221 from its intersection with US 421 in Watauga
County north to the intersection of US 221/NC88 in Jefferson from a two lane facility to a
four -lane median divided facility. The project length is 16.1 miles, and is located in
largely rural, mountainous territory in the western part of the State. The project is
expected to have only a slight decrease in travel time (5 -10 minutes), and will not
provide any new property access.
The study area for this project includes approximately 16,500 acres of undeveloped land
and the time horizon for this project was 2035. The roadway currently serves the
communities of Deep Gap, Fleetwood, Baldwin, Beaver Creek, and the towns of West
Jefferson and Jefferson. The project also runs adjacent to Jefferson State Park in the
north and crosses the South Fork of the New River. In addition to the South Fork of the
New River, the project makes 21 other stream crossings including Gap Creek, Little Gap
Creek, Old Field Creek, Beaver Creek, Cole Branch, South Beaver Creek, Naked Creek,
and Little Buffalo Creek. Little Buffalo Creek is listed on the Division of Water Quality's
303(d) list of threatened or impaired streams
The majority of the development with or without the project is expected to occur in the
communities of Fleetwood and West Jefferson in Ashe County, as well as around the
Watauga County community of Deep Gap,. There are already pockets of development
occurring along the project in the form of single family homes. Aside from ridge
protection ordinances, there are few growth controls in Ashe County (or Watauga
County). The project runs adjacent to several streams, much of which are designated as
Trout Waters which require a 50 -foot protective buffer around them. Additionally, there
are few land use guidance documents to direct growth, and much of the County
(outside of the Jefferson and West Jefferson) is not covered by zoning ordinances.
TIP -R -2915, Indirect and Cumulative Effects Analysis

ICE Introduction
This report will document the steps and information gathered to assess future land use
changes that could occur as a result of the project R -2915. The predicted changes, if any,
require action from a non -NCDOT party to occur. The majority of the measures taken to
avoid, minimize and decrease the impact of future land use changes in the project area
would be coordinated with these groups.
Future Land Use Study Area
The Future Land Use Study Area, shown in Figure 1, is the area surrounding a
construction project that could possibly be indirectly affected by the actions of others as
a result of the completion of the project. The study area identifies the areas that were
examined for potential increases in development pressures. The area identified by the
blue line in Figure 1 has been chosen as the Future Land Use Study Area. The Future
Land Use Study Area includes land around the US 221/US 421 interchange in Watauga
County north to the project terminus at the intersection of US 221 and NC 88 in Ashe
County. The study area is bounded by natural barriers to development such as streams,
rivers, and ridges, and excludes Jefferson State Park. Where no barriers for development
exist, parcel boundaries are used to help define the study area. The study area includes
the communities of both Jefferson and West Jefferson.
Project Overview
US 221 is classified as a minor collector. Project R -2915 is a 16.1 -mile project. The
purpose and need for the project is to improve traffic flow to the area, and reduce above
average crash rates along the route. The widening alternatives are a widening to the
east side, a widening to the west side, and an asymmetrical widening. There is also a
fourth alternative, a best -fit widening, which would combine the east and west side
alternatives in an effort to reduce stream impacts. The widening will occur on existing
alignment with no new alignment needed, however additional right of way will be
required along the southern end of the road, regardless of the alternative chosen.
Access will be partially restricted to the project (defined as one access point per parcel).
Existing driveway access will be maintained, if possible, with right in and right out turns
only. The project is broken into two proposed cross sections, each of which has 12 -foot
lanes and medians ranging from 23 -feet to 36 -feet. Design speeds will be 60 miles per
hour. The project also includes the construction of an interchange at US 421 to replace
the current intersection.
Due to the level of perceived environmental impacts, R -2915 will require an
Environmental Assessment for permitting. This document can be generally classified as
a 'moderate' level environmental analysis for documentation under NEPA. This
classification in based upon the limited number and type of environmental impacts that
are anticipated from a project of this type.
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Figure 1— Project Area
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Time Horizon
The time horizon for the indirect and cumulative effects analysis will coincide with the
design year of the project, 2035. Ashe County, where the majority of the project falls,
does not have a comprehensive land use plan and does not have a time horizon for any
other planning documents.
Transportation Impact Causing Activities
The proposed project will likely result in decreased travel times between US 421 and the
towns of Jefferson and West Jefferson. The Town of Boone in Watauga County is
located approximately eight miles to the west of the intersection of US 221 and US 421,
and US 221 is used as the primary connector between the Town's of Jefferson and West
Jefferson and Boone. Travel time savings will come from increased capacity and a
reduction of delays resulting from slow vehicles. Travel time savings based on the
length of the corridor (16.2 miles) are estimated to be 5 -10 minutes.
The entire project will be constructed on existing roadway, and access to properties will
not be affected. However, if a parcel currently has more than one access point on
US 221, construction of the project will limit access to one access point per parcel.
Construction will not affect travel patterns in the area because the route already exists
and is the main travel corridor between the municipalities and other destinations, such
as Interstates 40 and 77. The project also includes the conversion of a signal controlled
intersection at US 421 and US 221 in Watauga County to an interchange. Although the
possibility exists of Transportation Impact Causing Activities via a focusing effect,
impacts as a result of this interchange are expected to be muted by the lack of water and
sewer in the area.
Population and Economic Growth
Watauga County
According to the State Demographics Unit, Watauga County population grew by 2,769
people during the decade from 1997 to 2007, a rate of 0.66% annually. Population
projections for the County indicate that growth will continue at a similar rate (0.69%
annually) through 2020. Job growth in Watauga County has been steady, with jobs
increasing by 1.9% annually during the period of 1997 - 2007. The economic projections
for the High Country Workforce Development Board, of which both Ashe and Watauga
County is a part of, predict that the number of jobs in the region will grow at a 1.2% rate
annually through the year 2016.
Ashc County
The State Demographers Unit data shows Ashe County grew by 2,158 people during the
years between 1997 and 2007, a rate of 0.91% annually. The projections for the County
are for it to continue growing at a 0.98% rate through 2020. According to planners in
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Ashe County, the US 221 corridor is expected to grow as fast as, or at a faster rate than
the rest of the County. Growth is expected to be higher than elsewhere because the
proximity of US 221 to employment centers in Boone, Jefferson and West Jefferson. The
area is also easily accessible to US 421 and interstates to the south. Job growth for the
period of 1997 to 2007 for Ashe County was at 1.1% annually.
Combined Areas
For the purposes of this analysis the population and economic employment attributes of
the two areas will be merged to create an overall population and economic growth
estimate. Since the majority of the project occurs in Ashe County, and planners expect
the US 221 corridor to grow faster than the remaining areas of the County, Ashe
Counties growth projections will be used, and increased slightly (by 0.5 %) to account for
the increased growth.
Municipal Utilities
Currently, only the areas immediately surrounding the towns of Jefferson and West
Jefferson have water and sewer service. The Town of West Jefferson's water and sewer
operations are currently at roughly half of their capacity, which would allow for
additional growth. The Town of Jefferson is also operating at roughly 30% less than
capacity. Neither Ashe County nor Watauga County provides water or sewer services.
The Town of Boone recently purchased property in Ashe County along the South Fork
of the New River to construct a water intake plant; however there are no plans to
provide water service to residents of either County from the plant.
Notable Features
Human Environment
Development along the southern portion of the US 221 project, from US 421 to NC 194 is
characterized by single family homes and farms. Retail and commercial activity
includes gas station /convenience stores, and several landscaping companies. There are
also two small, strip retail centers along the alignment. Two single family home
neighborhoods are being developed, the Cedar Crossing neighborhood and the Titus
Ridge neighborhood, although construction appears to have stopped at both, at least
temporarily. The surrounding areas are mostly rural and undeveloped, or being used
for Christmas tree farming or other types of farming.
The northern portion of the project, from NC 194 north to NC 88, runs next to the Towns
of Jefferson and West Jefferson, and is much more urban in its development patterns.
Jefferson and West Jefferson are the two largest towns in Ashe County, and are home to
the largest employers in the area. The Mount Jefferson State Park is to the east of the
project.
TIP -R -2915, Indirect and Cumulative Effects Analysis

Natural Environment
There are several protected water resources along the project as depicted in Figure 2
(page 7). The US 221 corridor is located in the mountains of Western North Carolina, an
area targeted by the North Carolina Wildlife Resources Commission as containing
valuable trout streams. Trout streams are freshwaters protected for natural trout
propagation and survival of stocked trout. The project runs along several streams
designated as trout streams:
• Gap Creek,
• Little Gap Creek
• Old Field Creek
• Beaver Creek
• Cole Branch
• South Beaver Creek
• Little Buffalo Creek
The project also runs along Class C waters which are fresh waters protected for
secondary recreation, fishing and aquatic life. Secondary recreation is considered any
activity involving human body contact with water on an infrequent or incidental basis.
As indicated above, the project runs adjacent to the Mount Jefferson State Park, which is
home to several species of ecological interest. The park contains an oak /chestnut forest,
as well as the only stand of big toothed aspen trees found in North Carolina. The
mountain also has forests of red maple, yellow birch, and tulip trees. The forests are
also home to several bird and amphibian species. As a State Park, the mountain
remains protected land.
The project also crosses the South Fork of the New River, which is designated as a High
Quality Water body, which is a water body rated as having excellent biological and
physical /chemical characteristics. The South Fork of the New River is also a tributary of
the federally designated Wild and Scenic New River. The watershed surrounding the
South Fork of the New River is a Class V water - supply watershed. These waters drain
into a Class IV waters, but no categorical restrictions on watershed development or
treated wastewater discharges are required.
Finally, the section of Old Field Creek from Call Creek to South Fork of the New River is
classified as an Outstanding Resource Water which designates waters that are unique or
special of exceptional state or national recreational or ecological significance which
require special protection to maintain existing use. The widening project is expected to
take measures to minimize impacts to the stream.
The US 221 corridor also crosses one stream listed on the 303d list of impaired
waterways. Little Buffalo Creek runs in a north, northwest direction bisecting the towns
TIP -R -2915, Indirect and Cumulative Effects Analysis

of Jefferson and West Jefferson, and has been identified as having impaired biological
criteria.
TIP -R -2915, Indirect and Cumulative Effects Analysis

Figure 2 - Natural Environment Notable Features
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Growth Management and Local Policies
Watauga County
Watauga County is currently in the process of updating their land use and strategic
plan, originally written in 1992. As of the publication of this report a draft version is not
available, however based on discussions with County Planners, there is nothing specific
that addresses the area around US 221. Watauga County does not have a County -wide
zoning ordinance and instead relies on a High Impact Land Use Ordinance, and an
Ordinance to Govern Subdivisions and Multi -Unit Structures to regulate development.
The High Impact Land Use Ordinance regulates industrial uses such as asphalt plants,
propane or gasoline bulk storage facilities, and cement mixing facilities. In addition to
parking and lighting standards, the High Impact Land Use Ordinance requires buffers
from other land uses of no less than 75 feet (depending on the use), and setbacks from
roads of no less than 185 feet. The Ordinance to Govern Subdivisions and Multi -Unit
Structures regulates residential and commercial facilities and directs development away
from floodplains and sets bulk standards.
Ashc County
Ashe County does not have a land use plan or a zoning ordinance, and no plans exist to
develop a draft document or formally adopt one either. The County uses a Residential
Subdivision Ordinance to regulate development. The Subdivision Ordinance directs
development away from floodplains, sets bulk standards, and sets standards for road
names and road design. Ashe County also has a Ridge Protection Act that is intended to
protect the scenic vistas and natural beauty of the area. The Mountain Ridge Protection
Act does not allow any construction to occur higher than 500 feet from the adjacent
valley floor.
Ashe County has a Flood Damage Prevention Ordinance which regulates development
within floodplains defined by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA).
The ordinance requires that new residences and non - residential buildings built within
the 100 -year flood zone be elevated at least four feet above the base flood elevation.
Within the Future Land Use Study Area, there are 804 parcels that are at least partially
in the floodplain with an average lot size of 8.75 acres. Of these 804 parcels, 321 parcels
remain undeveloped, and have an average lot size of 9.05 acres. Were any of these
parcels to be subdivided or otherwise developed, they would be subject to the Flood
Damage Prevention Ordinance. Likewise, any existing structures within the flood zone
could not be enlarged, replaced or redeveloped without conforming to the Ordinance.
The Town of West Jefferson has a zoning ordinance which applies to the Town and its
extra territorial jurisdiction (ETJ). The area surrounding US 221 in West Jefferson is
zoned HC - Highway Commercial and is intended to provide land for "the retailing of
durable goods, the provision of commercial services to industrial areas, and the
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provision of services to tourists ". Permitted uses in this district include primarily retail
services. Residential uses are not allowed unless included in a mixed use development.
Currently, the High County Council of Governments is working on a zoning ordinance
for the Town of Jefferson, although the ordinance is not yet in draft format.
The entire project lies within the New River watershed. The New River watershed does
not have NCDENR development restrictions. However along with the construction of
the new water intake plant for the Town of Boone, an area upstream of the plant will be
reclassified as a Water Supply Watershed IV. The area for the watershed has not been
determined yet, however it is typically up to ten miles up from the water intake plant.
Development in a WSW -IV is limited to a maximum of two dwelling units per acre in
both the Critical and Protected Area.
Market for Development
Availablc Land
There are approximately 35,800 acres of land in the Future Land Use Study Area, of
which 16,500 acres are developable according to tax records from Ashe and Watauga
Counties. Because there are few growth restricting ordinances in the area, very little of
the Future Land Use Study Area is protected from development. Much of the vacant
properties are currently used for farming, forested, or are used for other income
generating purposes such as cattle grazing. There are no development density
restrictions for either Ashe or Watauga Counties outside of the Water Supply Watershed
IV restrictions which, as indicated above, allow more than two dwelling units per acre
within both the WSW Critical and Protected Areas.
Development Pressures
Watauga County
There are several factors contributing to the growth of Watauga County. The areas
around Boone are growing as Appalachian State University grows. The County is also
experiencing growth as a retirement destination, and a second home /vacation
destination. The County's status as a vacation home destination is evidenced by the fact
that residential building permits have been issued at a rate three times as much as the
population has grown since 2000 (based on 2007 data). When the Town of Boone's
building permits and population are removed, building permits in the rest of the County
have outpaced population by eight times as much. The majority of the growth is
occurring in the form of single family homes and multi - family units (which are much
more prevalent in and around Boone).
The future demand for vacation homes and retirement homes is difficult to predict given
the current economic climate, and the potential long -term ramifications of the credit
crisis. Vacation home construction, often requiring a second mortgage, is especially
susceptible to a drop off. Given the number of baby boomers who have retired or are
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nearing retirement, the demand for retirement homes should remain, although that is
difficult to predict.
The area of Watauga County within the Future Land Use Study Area is made up of
mostly large parcels containing single family homes and small farms. There are some
retail businesses, mostly along US 421 near the project, however these businesses are
oriented to US 421. There is no water and sewer service to the area, limiting the
intensity of development that can occur there. Based on conversations with Watauga
County planners, development impacts for the area occurred when US 421 was
widened, and the US 221 project is not expected to result in any major development.
Ashc County
Ashe County is also benefiting from vacation and retirement home growth. Residential
building permits in the County have outpaced population growth by nearly three times
in the years 2000 -2007. The growth of these types of houses is evident along the US 221
corridor, particularly in the vicinity of Deep Gap and Fleetwood. There are several
neighborhoods along US 221 in various phases of construction. The appeal of the area is
esthetic, and residents are attracted to the areas proximity to the Jefferson and West
Jefferson, Boone and the areas rural setting. The lack of water and sewer in the areas
outside of the Jefferson and West Jefferson limits the intensity of potential development.
Again, future demand for vacation homes and retirement homes has become difficult to
predict given current economic conditions. Ashe County planners point to the US 221
corridor as the portion of the County that is most likely to outpace the rest of the County
in terms of growth.
The areas around Jefferson and West Jefferson are also experiencing growth, albeit of a
different kind. Commercial and retail growth is evident along US 221, and more intense
residential development is occurring as well. Water and sewer service is available for
the towns, and West Jefferson requires that any annexations to the Town include water
and sewer hookups. Water and sewer systems for the Town are operating at half their
capacity, which would allow for additional development.
Development Market Assumptions
Although the current economic climate has slowed development everywhere, including
the US 221 corridor, the long term outlook (such as the 2035 time horizon used in this
document) for residential growth in the area remains bright. This is particularly true for
retirement housing, as baby boomers continue to retire. Additionally, because US 221 is
a major connector between the Jefferson and West Jefferson and Boone, it will likely
remain an appealing location in the future. Commercial growth is expected to continue
to occur in the town of West Jefferson and the Deep Gap area
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Indirect and Cumulative Effects Screening Matrix
The categories listed on the ICE Screening Matrix (Figure 2) have been shown to
influence land development decisions in numerous areas statewide and nationally. The
measures used to rate the impacts from a high concern for indirect and cumulative
effects potential to less concern for indirect and cumulative effects potential are also
supported by documentation. Each characteristic is assessed individually and the results
of the table are looked at comprehensively to determine the indirect and cumulative
effects potential of the proposed project. The scope of the project and change in
accessibility categories are given extra - weight to determine if future growth in the area
is related to the project modifications. Further examination of potential indirect and
cumulative effects will be undertaken on projects that have more categories noted as
moderate to high concern.
Figure 2.
Screening Tool Results for US 221
Based on the information gathered, the majority of the categories on the screening tool
reflected higher and moderate concern. The overall Tool result, the length and scope of
the project, and the likelihood that travel -times may be changed in an area with
moderate population growth, suggest that further examination is warranted. This tool
reflects the potential for indirect and cumulative effects on this project. The examination
steps below will assess whether indirect or cumulative effects are expected, and note
where these effects are most probable.
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Probable Development Scenarios
To realistically estimate and envision the type of development that could occur in the
Future Land Use Study Area, with and without the project, a number of sub -areas will
be examined. Development pressures and regulations, including the proposed future
land use, proximity to transportation infrastructure, proximity to water and sewer
infrastructure, and proximity to population and economic centers will push different
areas along the project to develop in specific ways. The boundaries of sub -areas in this
report (shown in Figure 2), designated as probable development areas or protected
areas, will attempt to approximate the geographic boundaries of these different areas.
Predictions of the type of development that is likely, with or without the project, will be
developed for each sub -area. The predictions of land use changes in the sub -areas will
be the basis for determining whether impacts to notable features, including waterways,
are likely in the overall Build and No -Build Scenarios.
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Figure 3 — Probable Development Areas
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Probable Development Areas
Five areas along the project corridor have been identified as probably development
areas. These areas are defined roughly by the communities along the project and
include the towns of Jefferson and West Jefferson. The areas were also identified
through conversations with local planners. These areas are depicted on Figure 3.
1. Deep Gap
This sub area is located at the intersection of US 421 and US 221 in Watauga County and
contains approximately 500 acres. The land currently contains single family homes,
agricultural uses, and some retail /commercial uses. The area is not serviced by water
and sewer, and no plans exist to extend service to the area. Although the land could be
developed without those services, the intensity and scale of the development would be
limited. According to the Watauga County Subdivision and Multi -Unit Structure
Ordinance, each subdivided lot shall have its own water source and sewage disposal
facility to be approved by the Appalachian District Health Department.
If residential development continues the proximity of this area to Boone and US 421
would make it appealing, however Watauga County planners feel this area would be
more appealing as a commercial area, given its proximity to main highways. Large -
scale commercial development is unlikely, however, given water and sewer restrictions.
Instead, small -scale commercial and single family home development is more
appropriate, although planners also feel that the development momentum for the area
was used up after US 421 was widened. They do not feel the US 221 project will have
much of an impact on the area.
No -Build
Some commercial development is likely, however the majority of the development
would likely consist of single family homes. Small -scale farming would also likely
continue in the area. The No -Build scenario would have minimal ICE impacts.
Build
While access would be increased slightly, the US 221 project will not provide new access
to Deep Gap. The slightly increased access and the areas proximity to two major
highways may make the area appealing to commercial development; however its scale
will be limited due to water and sewer limitations. The area may also be more attractive
to industrial developers, but will be subject to the same water and sewer restrictions.
The construction of the project would have moderate ICE impacts.
2. Pine Swamp /Fleetwood
The Pine Swamp /Fleetwood sub -area extends from the Ashe County line north to the
South Fork of the New River and contains about 1,750 acres. The area is characterized
by single family homes, various agricultural uses, and small businesses. This section of
the US 221 project has seen rapid single family home growth over the past several years,
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mostly in the form of vacation and retirement -type housing. Several neighborhoods
have been started, including Cedar Crossing and Titus Ridge. Like Deep Gap, no water
and sewer service is available, and there are no plans to bring the service to the area.
Ashe County does not have a land use plan or zoning ordinance and instead relies on a
Residential Subdivision Ordinance to control growth. According to this document, a
residential subdivision (defined as "divisions of a tract of land into two or more lots for
the purpose, whether immediate or future, of sale, or building development ") limits lot
sizes to a minimum of one acre. However this minimum lot size may be waived with
the use of a planned unit development (defined as "a tract of land ... subdivided into
lots that remain contiguous, for purposes of a single development being either a unique
residential use, commercial use, or a combination of both commercial and residential
uses "). In either instance, the subdivider must provide individual water supplies and
sanitary sewer facilities to each lot.
No Build
This area of the project will likely continue to be appealing to residential development.
Its proximity to Boone and rural charm will continue to draw residents seeking
retirement homes. Additionally, there are several large (10+ acres) lots in the sub -area,
including 15 classified as vacant. These large parcels would likely appeal to developers,
regardless of the width of US 221. The No -Build scenario would have minimal ICE
impacts.
Build
While residential growth is likely to occur in the Pine Swamp /Fleetwood sub -area
regardless of the project, the decreased travel times - regardless of how small - may
make this area more appealing to commuters to and from Boone. It is possible that
future residential development in the area will include smaller lot sizes. Intensity will
be limited, however, without water and sewer systems. Additional growth may occur
on some of the access roads that connect to US 221 such as Idlewild and Pine Swamp. If
residential development continues in the area, the demand and market for commercial
services will grow. Again, commercial development will be limited in size because of
the lack of water and sewer services, and it would likely consist of small, possibly strip
style retail with parking. The construction of the project would have moderate ICE
impacts.
3. Baldwin
The Baldwin sub -area extends from the South Fork of the New River north to 1,500 feet
north of Clarence Lyall Road. The sub -area includes 2,050 acres. The predominant land
use along this section of the project is farming and residential. There are several
congregations of businesses, including in the US 221 -Windy Hill area, and the US 221 -
Frank Edwards Road area. As with the majority of the rest of the County, there is no
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water and sewer service in the area, and there are no plans to bring it to the area. Lots
sizes are larger here (4.5 acres on average) and fewer new subdivisions are evident.
Growth, in the short term, may be limited in this area because this section of the project
is further from Boone than the previous two sub - areas, and has not been affected by the
slower growing Town of Jefferson. In the long term, however, it may also be the section
of R -2915 that is most affected by the project in terms of development. The decreased
travel times to and from Boone, and the large lot sizes in the area may appeal to
developers. Commuting from Ashe County to Watauga County is increasing as
evidenced by commuting data obtained from the North Carolina State Data Center. In
the 1990's, commuting from Ashe County to Watauga County increased by 89.3 percent
to 1,350 daily commuters. Commuting to Watauga County from Ashe County is likely
to continue to rise, and the Baldwin area may see increased growth as a result.
Residential growth in the area is likely to pick up, and with the new residents
commercial development can be expected to follow, particularly at the existing
commercial hubs mentioned above.
No Build
This area may continue to see residential development, and in the long term it may
become more appealing as it becomes more built out to the south. In the short term
growth will likely lag behind other areas along the project. The No -Build scenario would
have minimal to no ICE impacts.
Build
The decreased travel times and availability of larger tracts of land (there are 46 parcels
greater than 10 acres in the sub area, including 19 parcels that are classified as vacant)
will likely increase developer interest in this area. As with the other areas of the County
outside the municipalities, the lack of water and sewer service in the area will limit
higher - intense development. Single family home development is likely, and with the
new residents commercial development can be expected to follow, particularly at the
existing commercial hubs mentioned above, as well as at the intersection of US 221 and
NC 194. It is also likely that some of the land along access roads will be more appealing
to development. The construction of the project would have moderate ICE impacts.
4. Beaver Creek
The Beaver Creek sub -area extends from 1,500 feet north of the US 221 - Clarence Baldwin
intersection to the limits of the Town of West Jefferson and the intersection of NC 163.
This section of the project is characterized by more urban development mixed in with
large farms and single family homes. There are approximately 1,000 acres in the sub-
area, and it includes Ashe County High, which has been annexed into West Jefferson
despite not being directly attached to it. The school has water and sewer facilities
provided by the Town which, in theory, could be tapped into if a developer wanted to
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be annexed into the town. The water and sewer availability could allow for more
intense development.
No Build
This area will likely see steady growth in the form of single family residential and
commercial growth, with the possibility of larger scale growth based on water and
sewer availability. However the slow growth rates in area may not merit the costs of
extending utility lines. The No -Build scenario would have minimal to no ICE impacts.
Build
The increased access, proximity to Christmas tree farms and other industry, and
availability to water and sewer utilities may make this area more appealing to industrial
uses. The same can be said for commercial uses, especially as the population grows in
the area. Commercial uses would likely be larger in scale than the remainder of the
project, and would include parking and possibly out - parcels. Commercial growth could
also include strip -type development. However, Ashe County planners indicated that
the majority of the economic growth was occurring around the Jefferson and West
Jefferson, and this area seems to be a prime location for commercial /industrial growth.
The construction of the project would have major ICE impacts.
5. West Jefferson
The West Jefferson sub -area extends through and along the Town of West Jefferson and
contains approximately 620 acres. Because the sub -area runs through a municipality,
there are fewer vacant parcels and the parcel size is smaller. A number of the parcels in
the sub -area are also governed by the Town of West Jefferson's zoning ordinance and
other ordinances intended to control growth. The majority of the parcels immediately
adjacent to the project are not within the Town, however. The intersection of US 221
Business and US 221 Bypass is zoned HC - Highway Commercial which allows for the
"retailing of durable goods, the provision of commercial services to industrial areas, and
the provision of services to tourists ". Permitted uses include regional shopping
establishments, transportation sales and services, and retail and commercial uses. The
Town of West Jefferson is not designated a Phase II municipality.
This area has experienced growth recently, particularly commercial growth. To the east
of West Jefferson a new Lowes has been constructed along with other retail outlets, and
out parcels has been made available and are for sale. Residential development is
occurring as well, although the majority of it is to the north of the Town. To the west of
the project is downtown West Jefferson which maintains an active economic and tourist
base.
No Build
Commercial growth is expected to continue to occur at the intersection of US 221
Business and US 221 Bypass, and to the area to the west of it where large tracts of land
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are available. While the Town provides water and sewer to its residents and has
capacity to support more development, therefore additional growth within the town
boundary can be expected. The No -Build scenario would have minimal to no ICE
impacts.
Build
The four lane road would continue to attract growth to the area, and the presence of
water and sewer in the area would likely mean the growth would occur at a more rapid
and intense rate than the rest of the corridor. Industrial development, specifically,
would likely be more appealing with the decreased travel times to US 421 and the
interstates beyond, and proximity to employers. Commercial and residential growth,
already occurring in the area, would likely continue to occur. Re -use and
redevelopment of the existing areas is also likely, and such construction would likely
increase in the build scenario. The construction of the project would have moderate ICE
impacts.
6. Jefferson
The Jefferson sub -area contains approximately 500 acres and is characterized by urban,
mixed use development. The Town of Jefferson is currently having a zoning ordinance
written for it by the High Country MPO, and the majority of the area surrounding the
project will be zoned RC- Retail Commercial, which allows for nearly all types of retail.
Growth has occurred in the town in the form of residential and commercial growth, and
the Town can provide water and sewer services to its residents and new developments.
The Town of Jefferson is also not designated as a Phase II municipality.
No Build
Growth is expected to continue in the area in the form of commercial and residential
growth, specifically at the intersection of US 221/NC 88/NC16 - beyond the terminus of
the project. Residential growth is also expected to continue. The No -Build scenario
would have minimal to no ICE impacts.
Build
The project will bring decreased travel times, and will likely increase the appeal of
Jefferson as an industrial location. Commercial and residential growth, already
occurring in the area, would likely continue to occur. Re -use and redevelopment of the
existing areas is also likely, and is likely to be more appealing in the build scenario than
in the no -build scenario as proximity to US 221 and the interstates and highways to the
south are more accessible. The construction of the project would have moderate ICE
impacts.
Land Use Scenario Assessment Matrix
The categories listed on the Scenario Assessment Tool (Figure 3) have been shown to
have a direct relationship to future quality of life and resource impacts. The measures
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used to rate the impacts from a high concern for quality of life and resource impacts to
less concern for quality of life and resource impacts are also supported by
documentation and case studies. Each characteristic is assessed individually, for the
Build Scenario and the No -Build Scenario, and the results of the table represent a
comprehensive determination as to whether greater quality of life or resource impacts
are expected to result from the project. In general, the more the Build Scenario and the
No -Build Scenario diverge the greater the potential for future quality of life or resource
impacts.
Figure 3
Scenario Assessment Conclusions
Based on close inspection of the probable development areas, widening the roadway
would have a minimal effect in terms of higher impact development potential. The lack
of water and sewer service in the area makes large -scale development unlikely. Two
probable development areas, the West Jefferson (5) and the Jefferson (6) areas do
provide water and sewer and therefore are areas where project construction could
influence the development of larger commercial projects. A third, the Beaver Creek (4)
area has the potential to tap into water and sewer and therefore could see some higher
impact development. The Deep Gap (1), Pine Swamp /Fleetwood (2), and Baldwin (3),
are all areas where the project could influence residential development. The minimal
decrease in travel times (5 -10 minutes) anticipated as a result of the project will make the
areas only marginally more attractive to future residential development.
There are very few regulated areas along the project. Many of the streams have Trout
Water designations, and therefore are subject to 50' buffer requirements. There is ample
space in the future land use study area so that the Trout Stream buffers will not be
impacted.
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The project is expected to have an effect on development patterns along the roadway,
particularly in the Beaver Creek area (4), and the West Jefferson (5) and Jefferson (6)
areas. All three areas have available land and water and sewer availability to allow for
more intense development, including strip -type development.
Widening the roadway is not expected to change the local jurisdiction's ability to
implement and meet land development and storm water management goals. The New
River storm water is regulated by the NC Division of Water Quality (DWQ) regulations,
and controls pollution via a permitting process. Ashe County and Watauga County
both have storm water requirements in their subdivision ordinances which address
development that occurs outside of the permitting process. The Town of West Jefferson
has also received funding from various sources to conduct storm water plans for several
areas of the town, and has recently completed a storm water plan for the town. Stream
buffers and the flood zone regulations will limit the potential impact of projects in both
Watauga and Ashe Counties.
Indirect Assessment Summary
The widening of US 221 from its existing two lane configuration to a four lane, median
divided facility will decrease travel times between US 421 (and Boone to the west) and
the Jefferson and West Jefferson. The travel time savings will come as a result of an
increase in US 221's capacity and a decrease in traffic congestion. The project will not
provide any additional access to undeveloped parcels of land.
Residential development is expected to continue, particularly along the southern portion
of the project where it has already been occurring. The area has been, and will likely
remain, a popular retirement and second home destination based on its scenic charm
and rural appeal. The project is expected to result in a slight increase in this type of
development, and the location will be driven by the proximity to Boone and secondarily
to the Towns of West Jefferson and Jefferson in the north. The intensity of the
development along the southern portion of the project will be limited by the lack of
water and sewer, and it will likely come in the form of single family, larger lot
development. The increased number of residences will slightly strengthen the demand
for commercial services.
More intense development is possible in the Beaver Creek area and the Towns of
Jefferson and West Jefferson. These areas are experiencing growth and have water and
sewer facilities and the capacity to handle larger, more intense development. There is
also ample available land in these areas to handle larger -scale development.
Very few development regulations exist aside from Trout Stream buffer requirements
which require a 50 -foot buffer along Trout Stream designated waters.
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Cumulative Impacts Summary
Cumulative effects considers past, present, and reasonably foreseeable future actions
within the Future Land Use Study Area. Past manmade actions include previous
development along the alignment, and the widening of US 421 to the south. Current or
present actions include the project itself, and construction of the Cedar Crossing and
Titus Ridge neighborhoods along US 221. Future actions include the construction of the
proposed water intake valve for the Town of Boone and the subsequent reclassification
of its watershed to a WSW IV. They also include TIP Project U -3812 which will upgrade
NC 88.
The proposed project crosses the South Fork of the New River, a High Quality Water,
and Old Field Creek, an Outstanding Resource Water. It also crosses Little Buffalo
Creek which is listed on the States list of impaired waterways as a 303d stream. Indirect
effects in the form of change in land use as a result of this existing location widening
project may occur in the form of increased residential development and redevelopment.
Increased commercial and industrial development is possible at the northern end of the
project. Impacts to storm water runoff and downstream water quality are not expected
from this change in development patterns due to a lack of water and sewer utilities, and
existing storm water runoff controls. Because no indirect impacts are anticipated, the
cumulative effect of this project, when considered in the context of other past, present,
and future actions, and the resulting impact to notable human and natural features
should be minimal. No cumulative impacts are anticipated to result from this project.
Water Quality Statement
Detailed analysis of the probable development patterns in the area suggest that this
project will have little or no effect on future storm water run -off or water quality in this
watershed. Regional population and job growth projections suggest that suburban
development in the area will continue to occur with and without the project. The
highest development potential is on the northern end of the project, particularly in the
Beaver Creek area and the Towns of Jefferson and West Jefferson. Travel time savings
will be the highest in these areas and will make commuting to and from Boone more
appealing, and the availability of water and sewer in these areas make more intense
development possible. Ashe County, The Town of West Jefferson, and the NC DWQ
have storm water runoff regulations in these areas that will serve to protect the stream
quality of the surrounding areas. The areas along the southern end of the project are
also developing and will continue to develop, however the lack of water and sewer
utilities will prevent any large -scale development. Ashe County and the NC DWQ
storm water regulations will address runoff and down stream water quality.
For these reasons, indirect and cumulative effects on the existing resources, including
downstream water quality should be minimal. No additional ICE study is
recommended.
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SOURCES
Ashe County Government website. http: / /www.ashecountygov.com/
Ashe County GIS Application. http: / /ashegis .ashecountygov.com /webgis/
Cavanaugh, Duncan. Regional Planner, High Country MPO Phone Conversation,
10/9/2008
Edwardson, Zachariah. Ashe County Planner, Interview 10/15/2008
Graybill, Brent. Watauga County Planner, Interview 10/16/2008
Growing with a Plan - Watauga County Land Use Plan, 1992
High Country MPO website. http: / /www.regiond.org /rpo.html
Levi, Mathew. Town of West Jefferson Planner, Interview 10/16/2008
McMillan, Dan. Ashe County Manager, Interview 10/15/2008
Mitchell, Dr. Patricia. Ashe County Economic Developer, Interview 10/15/2008
North Carolina State Data Center web page. http: / /sdc.state.nc.us/
North Carolina Employment Security Commission web page. http: / /www.ncesc.com
NC One Map, Data Download Page.
http: / /www.nconemap. com /GetData /DownloadFTP /tabid /286 /Default. aspx
October 2005 New River Basinwide Water Quality Plan, NC DWQ, 2005
Town of West Jefferson Government website. http: / /www.townofwj.com/
US Census Bureau web page. www.census.gov, 1990 and 2000
Watauga County Government webpage. http: / /www.wataugacounty.org/
Watauga County GIS Application. http:// www. wataugacounty.org /gis /index.asp
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