NC0081621_Plan of Action_20140301

WSACC
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RECEIVEDIDENRIDWR
JUL 26 2018
Water Resources
Permitting Section
Water and Sewer Authority
of Cabarrus County
FY 2012/2013 Master Plan
March 2014

WSACC
Table of contents
Final Deliverables
Section One - Service Area Demographic Projections Report
Section Two - Growth Model Documentation
ass
Iran INNENGINEERS
GHD I WSACC 2013 Master Plan I

WSACC
Ater and Sewer Authority
of Cabarrus County
Municipal Utility Service Area
Demographic Projections
March 2014
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Municipal Utility Service Area WSACC
Demographic---}
Projections
Prepared For:
Water and Sewer Authority of Cabarrus County
232 Davidson Highway
Concord, NC 28027
Prepared By:
LandDesign
223 N Graham Street
Charlotte, NC 28202
In Association With:
GHD Consulting Services Inc.
Willis Engineers, Inc.
March 2014
ECEIVED/DENR/DW
JUL 26 2018
Water Resources
Permitting Section
WMNI ease
(.=LwidWHIMENGINEERS
GHD I WSACC 2013 Master Plan I Service Areas

WSACC
Mesa
Executive Summary
Introduction
The Water and Sewer Authority of Cabarrus County (WSACC) developed the FY 2012-2013 Master
Plan (Master Plan) to guide future investment in regionally significant water and sewer
infrastructure. The team of consultants led by GHD and supported by LandDesign, Noell
Consulting Group (NCG) and Willis Engineers (Project Team) facilitated the planning process. The
Master Plan is meant to determine major utility infrastructure needs in Cabarrus County and a
portion of Rowan County between 2013 and the plan horizon year of 2040. LandDesign was
responsible for developing future year water demand forecasts to inform the Master Plan.
Forecasted water and sewer demand for the WSACC service area was developed based on an
analysis of existing conditions and the development of a growth forecasting model. This document
provides an overview of the development of the municipal utility service area demographic
projections that were used as an input for the forecasting model.
Municipal Utility Service Area Demographic Projections
Residential and non-residential projections were produced by NCG for the study area as a whole
and for individual municipal service areas. Projections were based on historic trends, recent market
capture rates and public and private investments. Housing and employment categories were
defined based on similar usage rates. Residential demand projections in terms of new dwelling
units were produced for the following housing types: Single Family, Town home, and Multi -family.
Non-residential projections in terms of new square footage and employees were produced for the
following industry types: Commercial, OIGOV (Office, Institutional, Government), Service,
Industrial, and Lodging. A graph of study area dwelling unit and employment projections is included
below:
Figure ES-1: Study Area Estimates and Projections
Dwelling Unit and Employment
Estimates and Projections
150,000 131,965
100,000 79� g f goo �F
103,727
50,000 63,107
1980 1990 2000 2010 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
--45— Dwelling Units (Estimated) —f— Dwelling Units (Projected) 0— Jobs (Projected)
Source: Noell Consulting Group
The control totals were presented to the WSACC Stakeholders Group in January of 2013.
Adjustments were made based on comments from stakeholders and revised figures were provided
during the WSACC Stakeholders Group meeting in March of 2013.
VIM 10111111�
Lane W nmENGINEER S
GHD I WSACC 2013 Master Plan I Service Areas

WSACC
Table ES-1 details employment projections for the municipal utility service areas within the WSACC
Master Plan Study Area. Job growth is expected to be 64% between the base year and the plan
horizon year of 2040. Municipalities closer to 1-85 and Mecklenburg County will continue to
experience more job growth than those areas in the eastern and southern parts of Cabarrus
County.
Table ES-1 Study Area and Municipal Service Area Employment Projections
Total EMP, 2012 11,542 44,923 4,362 1,028 11 934 307 63.107
Industrial
1,200
3,848
505
1,010
72
184
111
6,929
Commercial
914
3,446
433
593
125
331
5
5,846
OIGOV
4,541
12,605
2,613
1,220
0
1,149
117
22,245
Lodge
98
555
62
31
19
27
0
793
Service
504
3,426
449
181
100
146
0
4,806
Total Added
7,256
23,880
4,061
3,035
316
1,838
234
40,620
Total EMP, 2040
18,798
68,803
8,423
4,063
327
2,773
540
103,727
Source: Noell Consulting Group
Table ES-2 details residential projections for the municipal utility service areas within the WSACC
Master Plan Study Area. Housing units are expected to increase by 65% between the base year
and the plan horizon year of 2040. Concord, Kannapolis and Harrisburg continue to grow at a rapid
pace. The Town of Midland is expected to double in population due to its proximity to the Charlotte
metro area. Market demand will lead to more diverse housing types.
Table ES-2 Study Area and Municipal Service Area Residential Projections
Source: Noell Consulting Group
For More information
The WSACC Growth Model Documentation Report includes a more detailed accounting how the
municipal service area control totals were used to forecast future water and sewer demand. The
WSACC Service Area Demographic Projections Report, by NCG, details the methods and results of
the service area forecasting effort.
Land wR1 ENGINEERS
GHD I WSACC 2013 Master Plan I Service Areas l

ExecutiveSummary....................................................................................................................................... i
Introduction.......................................................................................................................................... i
Municipal Utility Service Area Demographic Projections..................................................................... i
Appendices
Appendix A — Service Area and Demographics
MR
Land WNSENGINEERS

WSACC
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Appendix A -Service Area Demographics Report

WSACC SERVICE AREA DEMOGRAPHIC PROJECTIONS REPORT
JUNE 25, 2013
As part of the GHD consulting team, LandDesign constructed a parcel -based growth model to reflect
the likely distribution of future population and employment growth in seven districts of the area
served by the Water & Sewer Authority of Cabarrus County (WSACC). (See Exhibit 5 in the attached
presentation for a map of these districts.) In support of LandDesign, Noell Consulting Group (NCG)
was tasked with providing long-term demand projections for commercial and industrial space and
various residential products for each of seven service districts in the service area. These projections
were provided through 2040 in five-year increments and will be utilized by LandDesign as inputs into
the growth model. The projections will be used to identify near- and long-term needs for new water
and sewer service in each district and in the county overall.
The following summarizes the methodology NCG utilized in its efforts to estimate demand for each
of five types of non-residential space as well as three general types of residential product (previously
defined by the GHD consulting team). The results of this research and analysis, and long-term
estimates for space and unit needs by district can be found in the attached presentation.
Employment Growth
NCG began its projections process with an analysis of employment growth, which drives household
and housing growth in Cabarrus County and in the Charlotte region. The following steps were taken
to project employment growth by type and district within the study area and identify the housing
demand by residential product type that this employment growth is projected to generate. Table 1
on page 3 of this narrative summarizes employment growth by district.
• NCG obtained historic and projected employment growth by type for Cabarrus County and the
larger Charlotte Metro Area from Moody's Analytics/Economy.com, a national data source that
NCG has previously utilized to understand long-term growth in neighboring Mecklenburg County
and the greater Charlotte Metro Area overall;
• Cabarrus County employment growth trends were compared to the larger region's to understand
which industries fueled the greatest growth in the county and which job types located elsewhere
in the region.
• These growth trends were examined to understand trends and growth captures in the county
both in the 1990s (a more typical growth decade on a national and regional level) and the
2000s (a decade considered highly unusual given its growth bubbles and deep recession, yet
one characterizing the relationships between the county and the region);
• NCG then looked at long-term growth projections for both areas, understanding which
industries are anticipated to provide the greatest growth in the county and how those trends
compare to historic trends;
• Concurrently, NCG worked with LandDesign to understand planned public and private
investments in the county, including those that could influence employment growth overall as
well as growth of a particular type of employment (completion of I-85 widening and growth
of the North Carolina Research Campus in Kannapolis, for instance);
o This look was extended beyond the study area to understand how investments in
322 9th Street, Suite D, Atlanta, Georgia 30309
Ph: 404-724-0172
nocllconsulting.com

WSACC SERVICE AREA DEMOGRAPHIC Consulting
PROJECTIONS REPORT Noe I I Group
Mecklenburg, including the completion of I-485 and the extension of rail transit to
University City, may impact growth in the county and adjacent areas of Mecklenburg
County;
o Where applicable, NCG adjusted long-term growth projections to account for these
investments where projections appeared unreasonably low or too aggressive.
o Employment growth estimates were provided from 2012 to 2015, and in five-year
increments from 2015 through 2040;
• NCG then examined historic growth trends in the county by each of the seven districts
(defined by established municipal utility service areas), utilizing the US Census' LED on the
Map, a mapping software that allows users to draw areas and examine employment by year
for each;
o NCG ran analyses for each of the seven districts for the earliest year possible (2002)
and the most recent year possible (2010) and identified growth captures by each
industry type each district achieved during the period;
o This trend data was then used to allocate projected county growth by industry, with
adjustments being made by NCG to reflect identified/planned employment -creating
projects, such as the NCRC, industrial/distribution investments in the southern part of
the county, Midland's investment in a town center core, etc;
■ Plans for these projects were identified through a series of interviews with
developers, public officials, broker interviews and/or other resources;
■ Public investments, such as the widening of I-85, completion of I-485, and
extension of LRT were also taken into account based on the most recent plans
by NCDOT, CATS and other public entities;
• NCG then examined detailed components of industry growth (e.g. within Retail, the different
types of sub -industries that comprise that larger industry group) at the county level;
o These different subgroups were analyzed and allocated to different employment land
use categories based on NCG historic experience in the region and beyond;
o Employment land use categories, as defined by the GHD consulting team, include
Commercial, OIGOV (Office, Institutional, Government), Service, Industrial, and
Lodging;
• NCG then projected employment growth for each of the seven districts, utilizing historic
growth factors, and known/planned investments in the coming years that may influence
growth trends;
o The results of these projections can be found in Exhibits 9 - 13 in the presentation
following this brief narrative;
• Square -feet -per -employee ratios were then utilized for each industry type based on national
standards and NCG experience;
o Adjustments were provided where appropriate (e.g. the NCRC, while an OIGOV
industry), utilizes a higher square -feet -per -employee ratio than other OIGOV users
given its need for lab space);
6/2 5/13 P a g e 12

WSACC SERVICE AREA DEMOGRAPHIC .I I Consulting
PROJECTIONS REPORT N(fieGroup
• Finally, NCG factored in vacancy rates by land use type using regional "norms" and
assumptions for a relatively healthy real estate market;
o These vacancy rates largely ranged from 5% to 10%, with the exception of
Commercial, which tends to range higher in the region and for which vacancy
estimates tend to be low given vacant space not on the market (e.g. vacant Walmart
stores)
Table 1: Summary of Employee Projections (Through 2040)
Total EMP, 2012 11,542 44,923 4,362 1,028 11 934 307 63,107
Industrial
11200
3,848
505
1,010
72
184
111
6,929
Commercial
914
3,446
433
593
125
331
5
5,846
01 G O V
4,541
12,605
2,613
1,220
0
1,149
117
22,245
Lodge
98
555
62
31
19
27
0
793
Service
504
3,426
449
181
100
146
0
4,806
Total Added
7,256
23,880
4,061
3,035
316
1,838
234
40,620
Total EMP, 2040
18,798
68,803
8,423
4,063
327
2,773
540
103,727
Housing Growth
As noted, demographic and housing growth in the Charlotte region and in Cabarrus County are
largely driven by employment growth and thus NCG used the employment growth projections in
both areas to project housing demand in the county. The following summarizes the steps taken to
project housing demand in the coming 28 years (2012 through 2040) in the county and in each of
the seven districts. The following are the steps NCG undertook in its housing projections process.
Table 2 on page 5 of this narrative summarizes the projected housing growth by district.
• NCG first examined historic relationships between household growth in the county and
employment growth in the county, and compared those trends to those occurring in the
larger region.
• Specific employment growth events were understood (e.g. the opening of Concord Mills) that
could influence these relationships and were factored into our analyses;
• NCG then established employment to household ratios for the county going forward between
2012 and 2040, measuring this household growth by five-year increment;
• US Census data from 2000 to 2010 was then utilized to understand the types of household
growth occurring in the county and the types of housing unit growth (e.g. single-family
homes, townhouses, and multifamily dwellings) occurring during the period;
• NCG then utilized an internal household growth model that incorporates household growth
totals as identified in the third bullet above as well as household characteristics (age, income,
household type) to estimate long-term household growth by these three factors;
6/2 5/13 P a g e 13

WSACC SERVICE AREA DEMOGRAPHIC Consulting
PROJECTIONS REPORT Noe Group
• Proprietary consumer research was then combined with historic demonstrated demand in the
county and region (by tenure and housing type) to estimate housing demand by product
type in the county by five-year period through 2040;
o Product types, defined by the GHD consulting team, include detached single-
family (SF), attached townhouses, and multifamily (MF), which includes mobile
homes, a residential type with similar water/sewer utilization rates as multifamily;
• NCG then utilized US Census data by Census Tract and aggregated this data up to each of
the seven districts;
o This data focused on the growth of housing by tenure and product type over the past
decade in each of the seven districts;
o This data was adjusted based on longer -term growth trends to take into account the
real estate bubble conditions and following collapse occurring in Cabarrus County, the
Charlotte region, and the US between 2004 and 2010;
• Employment growth projections, vacant land supply, historic growth trends, and planned
public & private investments were then utilized to provide growth estimates by district by
time period by product type over the 30-year time period examined;
o As with employment growth, planned private -sector investments, such as planned
residential communities and rental apartment communities, were factored into these
projections;
• Given growth largely radiates outward in the Charlotte region, and thus that residential
growth in Cabarrus will increasingly resemble growth patterns occurring in northeastern
suburban Mecklenburg County, NCG examined growth in bordering areas of Mecklenburg to
understand the compositions of that growth and the likely changes that may occur in
Cabarrus;
o In doing so NCG utilized US Census data for Mecklenburg census tracts adjacent to
or near the Mecklenburg-Cabarrus border and compared the composition of the
housing growth occurring in those tracts with that occurring and projected to occur
on the Cabarrus side of the border;
o As merited, adjustments were then made to NCG projections by housing type in each
district;
• Finally, NCG factored in reasonable vacancy rates by housing unit type (between 5% and
10%) to estimate projected housing demand by product type by district by time period;
• The results of this process can be seen in the residential growth projections by product type
in Exhibits 20 through 22 in the attached presentation with the roll -ups provided below.
6/25/13 Page 14

WSACC SERVICE AREA DEMOGRAPHIC
PROJECTIONS REPORT
Table 2: Summary of Housing Unit Projections (Through 2040)
6/25/13 P a g e 15
Noe I (Consulting
Group

tol
Prepared For:
WSACC Water and Sewer
Master Plan
(Consulting
Noe Group
Long -Term Projections of Economic and Residential Growth
Within WSACC Service Area
Dec. 2012. Rev. May 2013
Attachment A - NCG Exhibits

Water and Sewer Authority of Cabarrus County Consulting
WSACC Master Plan Growth Potential Analysis Noel lGroup
Exhibit 1
Key Factors Impacting Employment and Demographic Growth in Cabarrus County
�UUKUtz: Noen Uonsultmg Vroup
Salient Factors 5/15/2013 Attachment A - NCG Exhibits CN

Water and Sewer Authority of Cabarrus County Consulting
WSACC Master Plan Growth Potential Analysis Noel IGroup
Exhibit 2
Cabarrus County Employment Growth Relative to the Charlotte Metro Area, 1991 - 2040
5,000
4,076 30%
4,000 3,748
3,000 t 20%
2,516 2,340
2,000 1,616
10%
1,000 603 73
1 0
I 0 _ _ _
- 254 59 -377 -
-1,000 j
-2,000 -1,571 1 -10%
-3,000
-20%
-4,000
-3,844
-5,000 -� -30%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Cabarrus County Cabarrus as a % of Charlotte Metro
Cabarrus County Employment Growth by Time Period
1991 - 1995 1996 - 2000 2001 - 2005 2006 - 2012 1991 - 2012 e ,
Avg Employment Growth 1,379 2,418 923 116 1,110 1,599 1,427 1,180 1,242 1,367 1,213 1,319
Charlotte Metro 16,360 26,938 4,922 6,265 12,952 19,745 18,175 14,821 15,675 17,415 15,861 16,749
Average Capture 8.4% 9.0% 18.8% 1.9% 8.6% %7.• .
SOURCE: Noell Consulting Group based on data obtained from Moody's/Economy.com
Cabarrus Emp Growth 5/15/2013 Attachment A - NCG Exhibits
F9

Water and Sewer Authority of Cabarrus County Consulting
WSACC Master Plan Growth Potential Analysis NoC ro u p
Exhibit 3
Cabarrus County Employment Growth Relative to the Charlotte Metro Area, 2001 - 2012
Cabarrus County Employment Change, 2001 - 2012
6,000
4,000
3,698
2,277
2,282
2
,841 2,850
2,000
368
694
0
------------ --------
-352 -625 -251
1 -2,000 -1,370
-4,000
-6,000
-8,000
-7,127
Const-
Manu- Wholesale Retail trade Transport. Information Financial Prof. &
Education &
Leisure & Other Government
ruction
facturing Trade & Utilities Activities Business Svcs
Health Svcs
Hospitality Services
------- ------ --- ............
Growth Location Quotient Relative to Mecklenburg
Natural resources
0.24 N
The greatest growth in
Cabarrus County over the
Construction
1.24
last 11 years has occurred
Business Svcs (largely
in Professional &
administrative positions).
Manufacturing
M 2.47
Leisure & Hospitality.
Health
Government, Education & J
Wholesale Trade
-3.10
Svcs. and Retail
these job types are moderate
Trade. The majority of
-paying. with some
Retail trade
3.69
Health Care jobs
Cabarrus saw negative
having higher salaries.
job in
Transport. & Utilities
1 *92
1.92
Manufacturing, Transportation
growth
& Utilities.
Information
4.75
Construction. Information
and Financial Activities.
Financial Activities
-0.23
Relative to growth in the
Cabarrus
greater Charlotte area,
Prof. & Business Svcs
1.74
made the biggest
Professional Svcs, Leisure
gains in Retail Trade,
& Hospitality, and
Education & Health Svcs
0.88
Government. with the
Financial Activities and
county lacking relative to
Education & Health Svcs.
Leisure & Hospitality
1.94
Other Services -20.47
Government
1.55
-25.00 -20.00 -15.00
-10.00
-5.00 0.00 5.00 10.00
SOURCE: Noell Consulting Group based on data obtained from Moody's/Economy.com
Cabarrus LO
5/15/2013 Attachment A - NICG Exhibits

Water and Sewer Authority of Cabarrus County Consulting
WSACC Master Plan Growth Potential Analysis Noel Group
Exhibit 4
Locations of Jobs within Cabarrus County (2010)
Industry Type
Kannapolis
Concord
Harrisburg
Midland
Locust
Mt. Pleasant
Northeast
Agriculture, Forestry
19.4%
32.4%
0.0%
17.6%
0.0%
13.0%
17.6%
Mining, Quarrying, Oil & Gas Extraction
20.3%
55.4%
4.1 %
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
20.3%
Utilities
60.6%
39.4%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
Construction
15.7%
57.7%
11.4%
8.8%
0.3%
2.6%
3.5%
Manufacturing
6.9%
77.0%
10.4%
3.5%
0.0%
2.1 %
0.0%
Wholesale Trade
13.8%
66.2%
14.3%
3.4%
0.0%
0.1 %
2.2%
Retail Trade
19.4%
74.0%
4.1 %
0.7%
0.0%
1.6%
0.1 %
Transportation and Warehousing
25.9%
56.5%
10.4%
2.0%
0.0%
1.1 %
4.0%
Information
23.4%
73.7%
1.7%
0.3%
0.0%
0.9%
0.0%
Finance and Insurance
22.1 %
67.5%
7.9%
1.8%
0.0%
0.8%
0.0%
Real Estate and Rental and Leasing
21.1 %
70.8%
5.7%
1.2%
0.0%
1.0%
0.2%
Prof nal, Scientific, and Technical Svcs
23.4%
67.0%
6.1 %
2.5%
0.0%
0.6%
0.4%
Mgt of Companies and Enterprises
79.6%
18.9%
0.8%
0.1 %
0.0%
0.6%
0.0%
Admin & Support, Waste Mgt & Remed.
24.2%
54.4%
16.8%
3.1%
0.0%
0.6%
0.9%
Educational Services
30A%
56.9%
5.3%
1.5%
0.0%
5.9%
0.0%
Health Care and Social Assistance
22.9%
68.9%
5.2%
1.5%
0.0%
1.4%
0.2%
Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation
11.6%
84.6%
3.5%
0.1 %
0.0%
0.0%
0.1 %
Accommodation and Food Services
17.0%
75.4%
5.5%
0.3%
0.0%
1.8%
0.0%
Other Services (excl. Public Admin)
24.6%
60.4%
11.4%
2.4%
0.0%
0.8%
0.4%
Public Administration
11.4%
82.9%
3.7%
0.1 %
0.0%
1.8%
0.0%
Totals.;
.,
SOURCE: Noell Consulting Group based on data obtained from the US Census Bureau's LED
on the Map application.
*Green highlighted cells represent industries where service
area capture
rates exceed
overall capture
of employment.
Job by District
5/15/2013 Attachment A - NCG Exhibits
/2

Water and Sewer Authority of Cabarrus County Consulting
WSACC Master Plan Growth Potential Analysis Noel Group
Exhibit 5
Locations of Jobs and Key Industry Job Growth within Cabarrus County (2010 & 2002 - 2010)
' V&§tport
L N �\ , Fir -: a
x ri,w xn. Ford
'A ildlite
t��TLaCje
27)
vh
_f
i e�+��;r�cm rnf-�rxrr�
L L
-", Rockwell
Enochville,� R 0 yV A� N � -
�" Gold Hlil'
�id:son
Northeast
0.6% of all jobs in 2010
�' • • 0.2% of Key Industry Growth, '02-10 rchfield�
�s -J,-
. Nevw London
ff,--��.� sPoplar � Tent
nConcord �
David B'wVa Concord,
-1 68.3% of all jobs in 2010,'
80.9% of Key Industry Growth, '02-'10
Harrisburg
7.2% of all jobs in 2010
4.7% of Key Industry Growth, '02-10
1,< R.€ `
-/ .�i~a
ario te, Midland
1.9% of all jobs in 2010
' t ' -0.01 % of Key Industry Growth, '02-10
Mt. Pleasant
IR
1.8% of all jobs in 2010
1.1 % of Key Industry Growth, '02-10
Locust
0.02% of all jobs in 2010
0.0% of Key Industry Growth, '02-10 r
k R742;i'
r j `,ANSON'-
SOURCE: Noell Consulting Group based on data obtained from the US Census Bureau's LED on the Map application.
2010 Map 5/15/2013 Attachment A - NCG Exhibits cr�

Water and Sewer Authority of Cabarrus County Consulting
WSACC Master Plan Growth Potential Analysis Noel lGroue
Exhibit 6
Projected Job Growth in Cabarrus County by Key Industry Type, (2000 - 2040)
Mining, Quarrying, and Oil/Gas Extraction
Utilities
7
-33
5
1
Construction
-1090
-104
Manufacturing
Wholesale Trade
-7,593
568
-653
82
Retail Trade
1,765
304
Transportation and Warehousing
Information
Finance and Insurance
Real Estate and Rental and Leasing
Professional, Scientific, and Technical Svcs
Management of Companies and Enterprises
-576
-427
-302
-286
1,026
613
38
-65
16
47
43
94
Admin. and Support and Waste Mgt Svcs
941
775
Educational Services
397
32
Health Care and Social Assistance
1,803
249
Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation
362
-499
Accommodation and Food Services
3,249
393
Other Services (excluding Public Admin)
637
179
Public Administration
3,850
-418
10
12
7
8
8
9
7
12
11
11
11
10
E_365
197
121
310
521
700
109
95
-82
-90
-100
-200
279
r-----------------------------------------
1 223 136
187 268 288
533
490
448
774
1 395
1,533
56
112
81
89
65
2
39
37
36
58
80
79
76
99
76
93
113
65
46
47
0
-7
-13
452
r-------------------------------------37---
881 842 343 208 -23
26
24
18
29
23
-25
466
862
755
830
898
685
50
99
81
88
70
45
558
866
896
1,018
903
723
186
206
136
107
78
44
855
1,115
836
768
872
844
298
330
275
270
268
220
685
2,127
1,925
1,525
1,266
1,104
SOURCE: Noell Consulting Group based on data obtained from the US Census Bureau's LED on the Map application.
55
62
2,214
-268
1.381
405
329
520
36
2,703
96
4,495
433
4,964
758
5,290
1,661
8,632
Proi Job Growth by Type
5/15/2013 Attachment A - NCG Exhibits N
5/1

Water and Sewer Authority of Cabarrus County Consulting
WSACC Master Plan Growth Potential Analysis Noel lGroup
Exhibit 7
Projected Job Growth in Cabarrus County by Key Industry Type, (2000 - 2040)
Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction
IND
100.00%
55
Utilities
IND
100.00%
62
Construction
IND
100.00%
2,214
Manufacturing
IND
100.00%
-268
Wholesale Trade
IND
100.00%
1,381
.. Growth by
Employ.Total
Retail Trade
COM
100.00%
5,173
Product Type
Transportation and Warehousing
IND
100.00%
405
Industrial (IND)
6,899
2,000
13,524,028
Information
MULTI
100.00%
329
Commercial (com)
6,163
600
4,454,910
IND
80.71%
266
Office/Inst/Gov (oiGov)
21,752
350
8,489,458
COM
11.42%
38
Lodging (LODGE)
794
1,200
952,219
OIGOV
7.86%
26
Service (SERVE)
4,804
250
1,358,883
Finance and Insurance
MULTI
100.00%
520
Total
40,412
28,779,498
COM
55.56%
289
OIGOV
44.44%
231
Real Estate and Rental and Leasing
OIGOV
100.00%
36
Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services_
MULTI
100.00%
2,703
MULTI : denotes industries where job growth is distributed
between
OIGOV
83.82%
2,265
multiple product types
COM
16.18%
437
Management of Companies and Enterprises
OIGOV
100.00%
96
Admin. & Support, Waste Management and Remediation
OIGOV
100.00%
4,495
Educational Services
OIGOV
100.00%
433
Health Care and Social Assistance
OIGOV
100.00%
4,964
Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation
MULTI
100.00%
758
OIGOV
16.42%
125
IND
53.88%
409
COM
29.70%
225
Accommodation and Food Services
MULTI
100.00%
5,290
LODGE
15.00%
794
SERVE
80.80%
4,274
IND
4.20%
222
Other Services (excluding Public Administration)
-- - --
MULTI
-
100.00%
1,661
IND
41.11%
683
SERVE
31.90%
530
OIGOV
26.99%
448
Public Administration
OIGOV
100.00%
8,632
SOURCE: Noell Consulting Group based on data obtained from the US Census Bureau's LED on the Map application.
Job by Product Type (CTY) Attachment A - NCG Exhibits
5/15/2013 CN

Water and Sewer Authority of Cabarrus County Consulting
WSACC Master Plan Growth Potential Analysis Noel lGroup
Exhibit 8
Projected Job Growth by Industry Type, 2012 -2040
Industry Type
Growth
Concord
Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction
55
34%
-10%
-5%
0%
11 %
0%
st
70%.
Utilities
62
8%
5%
87%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Construction
2,214
48%
13%
17%
0%
10%
8%
4%
Manufacturing
-268
37%
7%
35%
0%
20%
1 %
0%
Wholesale Trade
1,381
51 %
0%
23%
2%
24%
0%
0%
Retail Trade
5,173
66%
7%
13%
2%
11%
0%
0%
Transportation and Warehousing
405
69%
-5%
15%
0%
27%
0%
-5%
Information
329
33%
35%
32%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Finance and Insurance
520
45%
10%
43%
0%
1 %
1 %
0%
Real Estate and Rental and Leasing
36
58%
17%
24%
0%
1 %
0%
0%
Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services
2,703
6.6%
1.8%
91.0%
0.0%
0.6%
0.0%
0.0%
Management of Companies and Enterprises
96
75%
5%
17%
0%
0%
3%
0%
Admin. & Support, Waste Management and Remediation
4,495
50%
25%
19%
0%
4%
1 %
1 %
Educational Services
433
67%
10%
17%
0%
2%
5%
0%
Health Care and Social Assistance
4,964
86%
-5%
-1 %
0%
7%
11 %
1 %
Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation
758
80%
3%
18%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Accommodation and Food Services
5,290
70%
8%
12%
2%
4%
3%
0%
Other Services (excluding Public Administration)
1,661
82%
21 %
-5%
0%
2%
0%
0%
Public Administration
8,632
57%
17%
13%
0%
7%
6%
0%
Total, 2012 - 2040
38,940
61.6%
10.2%
16.6%
1.0%
4.1 %
6.0%
0.6%
2010 Jobs
68.3%
7.2%
20.3%
0.2%
1.9%
1.8%
n aoi
SOurcl r-" i,4oeii tonsuinng group based on data obtained from the US Census Bureau's LED on the Map application.
Projections by District Attachment A - NCG Exhibits 1 �1
5/15/2013

Water and Sewer Authority of Cabarrus County Consulting
WSACC Master Plan Growth Potential Analysis Noel lGroup
Exhibit 9
Projected Industrial Space -Using Jobs and Square Feet by District, 2012 -2040
t T" Rock
well
Enoehville, R G W ( M�Jf
16J
Gold Hill
Nest ort avidson '
....... ....
borne' s ....... r�r,
L N F, r Northeasto
`" • • • 1.6% of All Industrial Growth ichfield
73)
16) New Lond?
-villa y {ti--� Po�tar 7prrt = .......
Hunter e �- �! �.�. ,rd A
-'. "4 David B Wa
' ans�Fard.
dlife'' Concord
ge 21 55.5% of all Industrial Growth
273� arri nn Mt. Pleasant
2.7% of All Industrial Growth
27) � Harrisburg
7.3% of all Industrial Growth
2000
Locust
-�f-��# 1.0% of All Industrial Growth r
on Be � hi 29' arlo e , ^ -
5- Midland d
y �taa, ts' 14 6% of all Industrial Growth
1 k74i
2012 - 2015
271
542,373
687
1,374,562
67
133,241
51
101,944
0
-627 1
16
32,897
25
49,175
2015 - 2020
354
707,044
876
1,752,864
72
144,590
145
290,351
0
-349
17
33,715
11
22,008
2020 - 2025
123
246,174
445
889,631
46
91,013
147
294,099
0
-173
9
17,617
6
11,160
2025 - 2030
157
314,400
549
1,098,998
74
148,283
195
389,881
1
2,748
24
47,741
13
26,667
2030 - 2035
170
340,849
648
1,296,911
108
215,910
248
495,384
27
54,683
52
104,099
23
45,668
2035 - 2040
124
248,485
641
1,282,684
138
276,165
224
447,849
44
88,535
66
131,806
34
67,405
2012 - 2040
1,200
2,399,324
3,848
7,695,651
505
1,009,202 1
1,010
2,019,508 1
72
144,818 '
184
367,875 1
111
222,083
SOURCE: Noell
Consulting Group based on data obtained
from the US Census Bureau's LED on the Map application.
Industrial Projections
Attachment
A NCG
Exhibits
CN
5/15/2013
-

Water and Sewer Authority of Cabarrus County Consulting
WSACC Master Plan Growth Potential Analysis Noel lGroup
Exhibit 10
Projected Commercial Space -Using Jobs and Square Feet by District. 2012 -2040
I � °per L L ,� ,1�.. �, -- �
.. Rockwell �Q
-_r
� f Enochville�,`l '' Sti R 0 VV A4 ,. N � '1
Cold Hilla
avidsdn "
L N orne*is `` " • Rim, Northeast -
��+, •' • • - • • 0.1 % of All Commercial Growth
New
r f �-
Poplar T �-nt
`'v urrter a �--�.,_.- Concord
A Ctiavid B Way
('swans Ford 6 i
i� t, - i Wildlife �� ,. - Concord
Ret�rge j `� ! 58.9% of all Commercial Growth
r-�'
T
16 ;i r� .. 113 °
273)
`27 Harrisburg
7.4% of all Commercial Growth `,
T r
-..,-`4 ,r rr iU, ! _ i "*,� _ r�' s�` -v... `--�•.1 r `�1r,; i
_ : r otf
3e it
_...�.. r--''i.29 r
21 Midland s
,-10.1 % of all Commercial Growth
16'
f ,y
Mt. Pleasant
5.7% of All Commercial Growth
•y
206)
Locust
2.1 % of All Commercial Growth
d
2 16
�, l
t742i:•.
• a*e, 'A
2012 - 2015
99
71,586
513
371,085
47
33,632
1
724
0
0
0
170
0
344
2015 - 2020
129
92,989
406
293,282
55
39,739
26
18,600
0
0
25
17,968
0
297
2020 - 2025
96
69,040
314
226,795
44
32,058
46
33,084
13
9,717
45
32,612
0
292
2025 - 2030
146
105,479
490
354,423
64
46,327
109
79,107
23
16,788
55
39,512
1
570
2030 - 2035
227
163,993
836
604,049
109
78,740
196
141,939
42
30,260
98
71,077
2
1,105
2035 - 2040
218
157,309
887
641,385
114
82,565
215
155,314
46
33,246
1 108
77,855
2
1,268
2012 - 2040
914
660,397
3,446
2,491,019
433
313,061
593
428,767
125
90,011
1 331
239,194
5
3,875
SOURCE: Noell Consulting Group based on data obtained from the US Census Bureau's
LED on the Map application.
Commercial Projections
Attachment
A NCG
Exhibits
CN
5/15/2013
-

Water and Sewer Authority of Cabarrus County Consulting
WSACC Master Plan Growth Potential Analysis Noel lGroup
Exhibit 11
Projected Office, Institutional, & Government (OIGOV) Space -Using Jobs and Souare Feet by Distrir:t gnl 9 -9nan
l D L L
• ..t•r~ rt r i `_ 55 Rockwell
1'S2
«,
Enochville�� R 0 VV P� N
I ' Gold Hill'
avidson
r orneB s
L N • • Northeast
• e • 0.1 % of All OIGOV Growth IchfieldI
- 73 ,..1
New Londo
ville , Poplar Tert y
,urrter a � ' Concord
f 1 Afa °
11 'C'e,f4-an:_ David B )
Ford j a
r� ..4%Aldlife r2- " Concord f�
, .!fu9e � `j o -
.ti 21 r 43.6 /o of all O�IGOV Growth `.
1B 113 " 'I
273' ��?., w " T- s f - t arri -lurg
Mt. Pleasant
4.0% of All OIGOV Growth
7'Harrisburg
`A 9.0% of all OIGOV Growth
N �6 _R .- �' �� (2D0) _ F
Locust
,7`=. 0.0% of All OIGOV Growth
on Berryhil "' t ; lrli o
�. 521� - , ,. Midland '�_ s d 2os: Ati ^
4.6% of all OIGOV Growth y r
2012 - 2015
568
548,970
1,304
507,252
269
104,695
-2
-838
0 0
255
99,003
13
13
2015 - 2020
1,295
1,131,954
2,686
1,044,474
649
252,374
44
16,945
0 0
357
138,685
21
21
2020 - 2025
1,205
1,102,902
2,420
941,182
564
219,231
294
114,170
0 0
243
94,312
20
20
2025 - 2030
673
765,047
2,387
928,177
420
163,310
310
120,400
0 0
146
56,630
23
23
2030 - 2035
531
520,958
2,141
832,602
400
155,461
316
123,064
0 0
84
32,516
22
22
2035 - 2040
269
333,885
1,667
648,137
311
121,007
1 259
100,764
0 0
1 67
25,875
18
18
2012 - 2040
4,541
4,403,716
12,605
4,901,825
1 2,613
1,016,078 1
1,220
474,506
0 0
1,149
447,021
117
117
SOURCE: Noell
Consulting Group based on data
obtained from
the US Census Bureau's LED on the
Map application.
OIGOV Projections
Attachment
A
CN
5/15/2013
- NCG Exhibits

Water and Sewer Authority of Cabarrus County Noel
COnSUiting
WSACC Master Plan Growth Potential Analysis
lGroup
Exhibit 12
Projected Lodging Space -Using Jobs and Square Feet by District. 2012 -2040
- t I L L !E, Rockwell 4'
r d - 1 2)`-
c-`�
�
_...., . Enochville { R G Vld N
......... 1 f Gold Hill'.
A �VV86 iport _ ...�.... I `
avidsonan ... ,,
L N orne s Northeast` -i
' Ir _.tom _-
l° �� • •:' • • 0.0% of All Lodging Growths chfield
73
f161 ��,, New Londo u4
ville y f � , _._ Poplar Tent
k r Untel a rr-- _ ' Concord
Gravid B Way n
L.OwanslFord 6 4
t f ev'Vildlife � �2,-r Concord j _
t�z t g . 4� 2i e 70.0% of all Lodging Growth
�.t
2731
arris Mt. Pleasant
3.5 /o of All Lodging Growth
'�. 271 y Harrisburg
r
7.8% of all Lodging Growth
Nfi
Locust
't: i-4ic-'2.3% of All Lodging Growth
ark ari
Ber hi titt$ ,- r
+ 29 {_.
1 621 t ~ * Midland d
$ �° 3.9%6 of all Lodging Growth --
1
r1ao.1 '1 '� ,
i
2012 - 2015
15
17,608
96
115,392
10
12,309
4 4,616
0
0
3
4,192
0
0
2015 - 2020
19
22,978
125
150,589
13
16,063
5 6,024
0
0
5
5,471
0
0
2020 - 2025
19
22,571
89
106,837
10
12,038
4 4,514
0
0
3
4,100
0
0
2025 - 2030
16
19,349
75
89,834
9
11,057
6 6,910
6
6,910
3
3,766
0
0
2030 - 2035
17
20,415
84
100,505
10
12,563
7 7,852
7
7,852
7
7,852
0
0
2035 - 2040
13
15,186
86
103,263
9
10,630
6 7,593
6
7,593
1 6
7,593
1 0
0
2012 - 2040
98
118,107
555
666,421 1
62
74,659 31 37,509
19
22,355
27
32,974
0
0
SOURCE: Noell
Consulting Group based on data obtained from the US Census Bureau's LED on the Map application.
Lodge Projections
5/15/2013
Attachment A - NCG Exhibits
CN

Water and Sewer Authority of Cabarrus County Consulting
WSACC Master Plan Growth Potential Analysis Noel lGroup
Exhibit 13
Projected Service Space -Using Jobs and Square Feet by District. 2012 -2040
L L I /I
-'x u. Rockwell 4�u
Enochvillet -R 0 VVA N16)
�. {I 1-�-^ • i r Gold Hill
avidson• •
5
L N ornetiy� .. Northeast
/o !
,. 0.0 of All Service Growth _chfieldh
f? New Londo' ti+
villa,T�7 .�•� �- `'t= Foplar Tent
f4
n'klui er e - �-_ Concord
av
-pavanFord
: ,l t
t �Viblite ��'
ncord
%efucle �45 ''� 21 71.3% of alllSery a Growth N A
1273
Mt. Pleasant
27 E c Harrisbur 9 3.0% of All Service Growth
9.3% of all Service Growthv
N 1b Fs
Locust
= 2.1%a of All Service Growth
orr� eerryhi jjjjjj ```x l" o "--,
`[� M-r �2s
'F, 1 ¢621 T Midland s d
3.8% of all Service Growth16
t160..
5 (742)
2012 - 2015
74
20,633
596
165,543
76
21,003
23 6,375
0
0
19
5,150
0
0
2015 - 2020
98
27,189
762
211,744
95
26,289
30 8,197
0
0
24
6,736
0
0
2020 - 2025
97
26,925
551
153,185
73
20,224
22 6,200
0
0
18
5,041
0
0
2025 - 2030
83
22,928
474
131,647
68
18,912
33 9,178
31
8,616
17
4,625
0
0
2030 - 2035
87
24,266
521
144,815
75
20,755
37 10,348
35
9,790
35
9,721
0
0
2035 - 2040
65
17,960
521
144,740
1 63
17,427
1 36 9,925
1 34
9,467 134
9,410
1 0
0
0
0
2012 - 2040
504 139,901 J
3,426 951,674
L 449 124,610
181 50,223 1
100 27,874
146 40,683
SOURCE: Noell
Consulting
Group based
on data
obtained from the US Census Bureau's LED on the Map application.
Serve Projections
Attachment A - NCG Exhibits
t �(
5/ 15/2013

Water and Sewer Authority of Cabarrus County Consulting
WSACC Master Plan Growth Potential Analysis Noel IGroup
Exhibit 14
Historic and Projected Relationship
Between Job Growth and Household Growth in Cabarrus County
Total Employment
-----------------
37,337 39,837 58,861 63,750 64,260 , 69,350 77,193 84,545
91,216 98,406 103,727
Total Households
30,620 37,515 49,519 i 65,666 66,996 i 72,023 81,309 89,957
98,368 107,586 115,797
Household: Jobs Ratio
0.82 0.94 0.84 1.03 1.04 1.04 1.05 1.06
_-i----------------
1.08 1.09 1.11
140,000 --�===-----------------
Numbers do not include 4,320 units in the Rowan County portion
of Kannapolis, which have been added into later product totals
120,000 ��---------------------------------------------�
100,000
m
a
O
y
a
80,000 0.94
r
d
y
7
O
2
w
60,000
d
� E a
z 0.82
40,000
20,000
i
p_-._._
1980 1990 2000
SOURCE: Noell Consulting Group based on data obtained from Moody's/Economy.com and the US Census Bureau.
1.03
1.05
1.06 1
1.0
2010 2012 2015 2020 2025
Total Employment Total Households -Household: Jobs Ratio
2030
2035
1.00
O
a:
O
0.90
0.70
--""0.60
2040
Jobs -Housing Ratios 5/15/2013 Attachment A - NCG Exhibits N

Water and Sewer Authority of Cabarrus County Consulting
WSACC Master Plan Growth Potential Analysis Noel l
Exhibit 15
Change in Commuting Patterns in Cabarrus County, 2002 - 2010
Cricket Fairplairis c `! K I summerfield Cedar Grove.: 01 -• __ Vienna J
_ .� -
J¢- _a r
New o ° a - 1 Ldher
Castle hsonville • : sad .r.
�Colf ,
Boomer `• . a B urlington : -
O Moravian Lewisvi em . . �r0 Hillsborough`
Falls -
; r-- 4Union Gr e........_Farm gton lei. Fri r ' sham C7 Q Ha
�\ Q r#
7.
Kings Creek 1 Olin �Eagl 601 ! Jarriesto n' c AL�.tv1ANi�E
• Arcadia � � ham
l Mills I E 4 ° Pleasant f" 44
F 4LE t L :� - I.E7(ANQ ,. Turnersb r m
ri g° Calaha Mocksville ehdale• Gard"On iI Leesui e
t Po�rxt
4k 1,16 Imo:,- _r - ^•,L '_ .. Reedy reek 4g; s7 ` Cha el Hil� N. _ _ p
iudson aBethlehem Stony Point : `' ::. :64 c sville R dl oLPerty ...............
Granit F Cool��ci a an eman e
° i Springs �Cooldelnee 1Tyro New- hAarket orris
Icard HickoryAlt Beeville `> H A O L H A T H Xy
Wake
-' t
t H amse�r �_ �ryF �.
aroutmanA�ttUok) � S I 4� ���'+1,341
C
i 6 i er City Pitts
IJf;z Newton ��, '� st Spencer t ' _.101sheboro'°
Mount i : ,i z
_ J riY-^7 ul�f Qei-iton Ce r Grove •�� g �`-'•
'4 � Coleridge
f`5,t C' T A V4 B . « r-� ' ;.., ,� Holl7 Rowany '
�. L -` R A O L P H Springs
aMaiden ' ' M+535 4lorgan Ford
... Jvih. Gulf` uqu*-V ...... �ckwell �`
321 ) Gold Hill ins°
427} . 14b. - a� r� ............... .. F`a Bier
irk j � ��• �r
Lrncolntrh Q 1.4 E .L An a
i' Poplar ord 1
18 L I x 0 L N Tent Rimer rr Robbins Parkwoo'd'BraUwharrieBadin $ ?eSlr ko
�Cherryville hStanle unt + • . STANL'r ¢ Troy, p ispoe 1,24 i C � `� H RNETT,
- i 8 7
cart
A
Bessemer Albemarle n
City G TON ,_, u Holly Endy. MONTGOMER,' � Seven M O O R E� Barbecue '
�L€ f LA o" �, Locu Candor 11101 Lakes t�
__ - hn�onville Anderspn,.,...
r stonia ; 3�t ' Uwharrie National Fo `g� 1
ri King r, , , Big Lick Norwood Whispering Pines Creek
Mau South Crame . - R24 , .
,;:,. Gastonia .. µ t52 ehurst , •�,., v� -Spring Lake
... , ,,� Pin
acksburg �1 Clover Nlaittnews i �w Sa1rh� Southern Pines
Aberdeen t, r
o RICHMCaNQ �. C41BERLAP
i; 1 inevilte QAilsonville.... Bannie Qocneii
i U7H c'1 Rfl1.INA ;; ,�,9 id �syille4 Ellerbe Pinebluff .. ,
cricr,a t isss-ate iia r cAaraui :tier ari rrsisuas r�enae€i ., + N S rJ ° �:....f H K E Fayette`llille�i_•'�
SOURCE: Noell Consulting Group based on data obtained from Moody's/Economy.com and the US Census Bureau.
Commuting 5/15/2013 Attachment A - NCG Exhibits N

Water and Sewer Authority of Cabarrus County Consulting
WSACC Master Plan Growth Potential Analysis Noel I
Exhibit 16
Cabarrus County Housing Units by Type, 2000 - 2010
More than 84% of the units added in Cabarrus County over the past decade have been single-family homes, a greater concentration than seen in 2000,
when single-family detached homes accounted for only 70% of total housing inventory in the county. Much of this growth of detached product is a result of
growth spilling over from Mecklenburg County and the University City area.
Also of significance is the loss of mobile homes in the county, with inventory declining overall by nearly 500 units during the decade. As Cabarrus continues
to urbanize that inventory will continue to decline.
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
-0.1
2000 39,208 681 1,468 900 1,360 2,669 6,544 18 52,830
2010 53,151 1,219 1,598 1,006 2,302 4,088 6,066 18 69,430
Change 13,943 538 130 106 942 1,419 -478 0 16,600
Single -Family Detached
15.7%
12.1 % 12.4%
1.3%
-2.9%
Townhouses Multi -Family Mobile Homes
SOURCE: Noell Consulting Group based on data obtained from the US Census Bureau.
Cabarrus Hsg Units
5/15/2013 Attachment A - NCG Exhibits
5/ 15/2

Water and Sewer Authority of Cabarrus County Consulting
WSACC Master Plan Growth Potential Analysis Noel IGroup
Exhibit 17
Housing Unit Growth by Unit Type and District, 2000 - 2010
EnochVille
PLN T 11
Ville I ! "�" —`"'x Poplar Tent
` 'io'!Ln!e, a Concord
David B Wa` °
t Vadlite Concord
Ret; ae. �`-2,, 51.5% of all Residential Growth
V—
27
3 Harrisburg r
18.1 % of all Residential Growth 5v
on ro e
• Berf hil
29 `f
ti 621~ - Midland .
`I1$" 4.4% of all Residential Growth
T180 R; , r 1
R 0 VV .4 N
Gold Hill-` :.
F Northeast
0.9% of All Residential Growth
New
Mt. Pleasant 4
2.2% of all Residential Growth
(200',e
Locust
0.1 % of all Residential Growth
t� d
742j'
-Kannapolis
Concord
Harrisburg
Midland
Locust Mt. Pleasant
Northeast Total
1, Detached
3,404
6,529
2,656
763
17 407
167 13,943
1, Attached
-33
336
208
12
0 9
6 538
Multifamily
491
1,768
368
18
0 -24
-25 2,597
Mobile Homes
-88
-78
-234
-57
-1 -24
4 -477
SOURCE: Noell Consulting
Group based on data obtained from the US Census Bureau.
Unit Growth by District
Attachment A
NCG Exhibits
CN
5/ 15/2013
-

Water and Sewer Authority of Cabarrus County Consulting
WSACC Master Plan Growth Potential Analysis Noel Group
Exhibit 18
Mecklenburg Growth Impacts on Mix of Units in Neighboring Cabarrus County Districts
Over time, new product in Districts in Cabarrus which border Mecklenburg County will increasingly take on a mix of products and price points generally in
line with Mecklenburg (e.g. these Districts will become and extension of their neighboring Mecklenburg Districts). In the case of Kannapolis and Midland,
this indicates lower -density, single-family product will be the overwhelming majority of new products added. In Concord and Harrisburg, multifamily and
townhouse product will comprise a more significant share of growth.
SOURCE: Noell Consulting Group based on data obtained from the US Census Bureau.
Mecklenburg Border Tracts 5/15/2013 Attachment A - NCG Exhibits

Water and Sewer Authority of Cabarrus County Consulting
WSACC Master Plan Growth Potential Analysis Noel I
Exhibit 19
Proiected All Residential Units by nistrirt gn1 q _9ndn
.
4 ` `1152
'Ski
all Enochville ; "- .y R 0 W N
Lie)I Cold Hillrt
avids, 66 � '
�t arne s t • Northeast
LN
1.3% of All Residential Growth
villa ,� " _ _�'"'`' - , ' Poplar Tent
r'lunter e Concord
-4 _ David B VVa °
,' K54anh Fard
.• 1t4icilife +; ►'' Concord
F,efuge 'j 49.2% of all Residential Growth A
,, a 2,
, yFr
i 273�
27 Harrisburg
14.0% of all Residential Growth
2012 - 2015
2015 - 2020
2020 - 2025
2025 - 2030
2030 - 2035
2035 - 2040
Total, 2012 -2040
•.*ti i
l r 1 e
` 341. i Midland
9 9% of all Residential Growth
7 ,
M
New
Mt. Pleasant
2.4% of All Residential Growth
L-I Iuy
Locust
�F �µt,,jr,.,I 5% of All Residential Growth
a
lr
Kannapolls
Units
Capture
Concord
Units
Capture
Harrisburg
Units
Capture
Midland
Units
Capture
Locust
Units
Capture
Mt. Pleasant
Units
Capture
7ortheast
Units
Capture
1,222
22.9%
2,813
52.6%
864
16.2%
230
4.3%
48
0.9%
119
2.2%
49
0.9%
2,171
22.0%
5,207
52.7%
1,486
15.0%
589
6.0%
114
1.1 %
222
2.2%
100
1.0%
2,082
22.6%
4,668
50.6%
1,351
14.7%
702
7.6%
123
1.3%
199
2.2%
93
1.0%
1,972
21.8%
4,376
48.4%
1,247
13.8%
956
10.6%
155
1.7%
208
2.3%
127
1.4%
2,042
20.7%
4,593
46.6%
1,258
12.8%
1,375
13.9%
186
1.9%
267
2.7%
139
1.4%
1,796
20.4%
4,017
45.7%
1,106
12.6%
1,287
14.7%
180
2.0%
238
2.7%
159
1.8%
11,286
21.6%
25,672
49.2%
7,312
14.0%
5,139
9.9%
805
1.5%
1,254
2.4%
667
1.3%
aUUKUt: Noels consulting Group based on data obtained from the US Census Bureau's LED on the Map application.
Residential Projections 5/15/2013 Attachment A - NCG Exhibits CN

Water and Sewer Authority of Cabarrus County Consulting
WSACC Master Plan Growth Potential Analysis Noel IGroue
Exhibit 20
Projected Single -Family Residential Units by District, 2012 -2040
LN/
I�
i iw unto
�.i�wran� Ford
` AIdlite
Fetuge+
Enochville
Poplar Teat
Concord
David B Way
.� Concord
46.4% of all Single -Family Growth
.- t I ;11.
' Harrisburg
k 14.7% of all Single -Family Growth
cr
`
24
r1otte
29 Midland6211 4
10.3 /° of all Single -Family Growth
J
R G W A� N ­�,,
Gold Hill
�M
Rime Northeast
1.5% of all Single -Family Growth
2012 - 2015
1,025
23.7%
2,071
47.8%
769
17.7%
237
5.5%
49
2015 - 2020
1,793
22.4%
3,907
48.8%
1,260
15.7%
598
7.5%
114
2020 - 2025
1,723
23.4%
3,501
47.6%
1,122
15.2%
587
8.0%
123
2025 - 2030
1,604
22.4%
3,298
46.1 %
1,020
14.2%
750
10.5%
156
2030 - 2035
1,640
20.9%
3,481
44.4%
1,039
13.2%
1,096
14.0%
186
2035 - 2040
1,426
20.4%
3,066
43.9%
912
13.0%
1,011
14.5%
180
Total, 2012 -2040
9,212
22.1%
19,325
46.4%°
6,123
14.7%
4,279
10.3%
808
SOURCE: Noell Consulting Group
based on data obtained from the
US Census Bureau's
LED on the
Map application.
Single -Family Projections
5/15/2013
Attachment A - NCG Exhibits
Nevw
Mt. Pleasant
3.1 % of all Single -Family Growth
cr IUY
o--
T Locust
of all Single -Family Growth
1 A'
d
1.1 %
126
2.9%
52
1.2%
1.4%
234
2.9%
96
1.2%
1.7%
215
2.9%
88
1.2%
2.2%
209
2.9%
122
1.7%
2.4%
268
3.4%
133
1.7%
2.6%
239
3.4%
154
2.2%
1.9%
1,291
3.1 %
646
1.5%

Water and Sewer Authority of Cabarrus County Consulting
WSACC Master Plan Growth Potential Analysis Noe Group
Exhibit 21
Projected Townhouse Residential Units by District, 2012 -2040
�t Enochville¢ ti '
LN
mmmt
a
Gold Hill
• • Northeast
'�-, • - • • • 1.1 % of all Townhouse Growth
)1ar Terd
')Hunter a ��-�--y Concord
0
DaVid B VVa�v�
ord 6 ,; Concord
�.( VA U= f� 52.7% of all Townhouse Growth
N t
Harrisburg
'p yk 25.1 % of all Townhouse Growth
cr,1.�
{(I N R T
I _ 4
24
rlotte
52t , 29 , Midland
8.0% of all Townhouse Growth
1
�57-
��"'.,�'"�.,'='*. �' �` �J.' �:�` ���..ii p �""i;�r,.. !U76�'15,�,°',G�.,=a.',i�" r-.. ``.��� �ii�.i•`".
2012 - 2015
2
1.8%
63
58.5%
37
34.7%
2
2.2%
0
2015 - 2020
22
7.3%
166
56.0%
94
31.7%
7
2.2%
0
2020 - 2025
27
7.3%
214
58.0%
105
28.7%
12
3.2%
0
2025 - 2030
50
12.3%
210
52.0%
103
25.7%
29
7.2%
0
2030 - 2035
63
14.3%
221
50.0%
87
19.7%
58
13.2%
0
2035 - 2040
68
17.3%
185
47.0%
77
19.7%
52
13.2%
0
Total, 2012 -2040
232
11.5%
1,057
52.7%
504
25.1%
160
8.0%
1
SOURCE: Noell Consulting Group based on data obtained from the US Census Bureau's LED on the
Map application.
Townhouse Projections
5/ 15/2013
Attachment A
- NCG Exhibits
New
Mt. Pleasant
1.6% of all Townhouse Growth
cnap
G`
c Locust
St,jr,tD.0% of all Townhouse Growth
(2051
0.0%
2
1.6%
1
1.1 %
0.0%
5
1.6%
3
1.1 %
0.0%
6
1.6%
4
1.1 %
0.0%
7
1.6%
4
1.1 %
0.0%
7
1.6%
5
1.1 %
0.0%
6
1.6%
4
1.1 %
0.0%
32
1.6%
22
1.1 %
CN

Water and Sewer Authority of Cabarrus County
WSACC Master Plan Growth Potential Analysis
Exhibit 22
Projected Multifamily (including Mobile Home) Residential Units by District, 2012 -2040
l
Consulting
NoeGroup
Enochville � r c ' 0 VV Ac N
i,
(16 ' Gold Hill -
avidson ...
' `orne s • • Northeast
L+ y` _ • •+� -0.3% of all Multifamily Growth
Ile t--= ram- Poplar Tent
i 'Hunter e r - r' concord
' .. David B)/Vay
cKuwvan� Ford,.'' - Concord
t Aldlife 5 ' e-' 62.8% of aH MultifamilyGrowth
%� ' 1?tietuc�e � �, 21 I
}F
F
+ s
e
1273
'A
N Harrisburg �7
27-' 8.1 % of all Multifamily Growth tZr'
�., 0111 on - tZ
--�-•-�...w '*� �r�7`?.--"�"_.. L,f,{,` Mitt
+� c N f$ lR 3
flotte
Derr it - 29' Midland l 621 8.3% of all Multifamily Growth
2012 - 2015
196
21.5%
679
74.6%
58
6.4%
-9
-1.0%
0
2015 - 2020
356
22.5%
1,134
71.6%
132
8.4%
-16
-1.0%
-1
2020 - 2025
332
22.5%
953
64.6%
123
8.4%
103
7.0%
-1
2025 - 2030
318
21.5%
868
58.6%
124
8.4%
178
12.0%
-1
2030 - 2035
339
21.5%
891
56.6%
131
8.4%
220
14.0%
-1
2035 - 2040
302
21.5%
766
54.6%
117
8.4%
224
16.0%
0
Total, 2012 2040
1,843
21.9%
5,290
62.8%
685
8.1%
700
8.3%
-3
SOURCE: Noell Consulting Group
based on data obtained from the
US Census Bureau's LED on the
Map application.
Multifamily Projections
Attachment A - NCG Exhibits
5/ 15/2013
New
Mt. Pleasant
-0.8% of all Multifamily Growth
= cnay
Locust
0.0% of all Multifamily Growth
-0
1206,
r
A
0.0%
-9
-1.0%
-5
-0.5%
0.0%
-16
-1.0%
1
-0.5%
0.0%
-22
-1.5%
1
-1.0%
0.0%
-7
-0.5%
1
0.0%
0.0%
-8
-0.5%
1
0.0%
0.0%
-7
-0.5%
1
0.0%
0.0%
-69
-0.8%
0
-0.3%

WSACC
e u
Water and Sewer Authority
of Cabarrus County
Growth Model
Documentation
March 2014
(.=Land M11i11SENGINEERS

Growth Model WSACC
Documentation
Prepared For:
Water and Sewer Authority of Cabarrus County
232 Davidson Highway
Concord, NC 28027
Prepared By:
LandDesign
223 North Graham Street
Charlotte, NC 28202
In Association With:
GHD Consulting Services Inc.
Willis Engineers, Inc.
March 2014
Land ENGINEERS

WSACC
Executive Summary
Introduction
The Water and Sewer Authority of Cabarrus County (WSACC) developed the FY 2012-2013 Master
Plan (Master Plan) to guide future investment in regionally significant water and sewer
infrastructure. The team of consultants, led by GHD and supported by LandDesign and Willis
Engineers (Project Team), facilitated the planning process. The Master Plan is meant to determine
major utility infrastructure needs in Cabarrus County and a portion of Rowan County between 2013
and the plan horizon year of 2040. LandDesign was responsible for developing future year water
demand forecasts to inform the Master Plan. Forecasted water and sewer demand for the WSACC
service area was developed based on an analysis of existing conditions and the development of a
growth forecasting model. This document provides an overview of the components of the Model
and the forecasting results.
Overview of the Growth Model
The WSACC Growth Model (Model) is a parcel -based forecasting model developed with
Geographic Information System (GIS) datasets and software. The Model creates disaggregate
dwelling unit and employment forecasts by determining the probable distribution of future housing
units and employment locations based on currently adopted land use policy regulations and
suitability of available land.
The Model is made up of four components: municipal utility service area projections, the available
land supply, generalized future land use, and the land use suitability analysis. Each component is
made up of a set of assumptions that influence the distribution of future growth.
The Model components were developed over a 10-month period with regular input from a technical
team of stakeholders, comprised of representatives of WSACC member jurisdictions (Cabarrus
County, City of Concord, Town of Harrisburg, City of Kannapolis, Town of Midland, and Town of
Mount Pleasant). The following sections detail the components of the Model.
Existing Land Use Inventory & Water Usage Rates Analysis
Prior to developing the Model it was essential to determine current usage trends. An existing land
use inventory was created based on tax parcel use codes and other datasets (i.e. a protected land
inventory). Water usage records were collected from the member jurisdictional retail operators and
geocoded (mapped) based on address. From these two datasets average usage rates were
derived for generalized existing land use classes. See Table 3 in the WSACC Growth Model
Documentation Report for more information. This analysis was used to determine an estimate of
daily water usage by parcel and water and sewer basin. It is estimated that current water demand
amounts to 12.8 Million Gallons Per Day (MGD) (this includes all member jurisdictions in Cabarrus
County and the Rowan County portion of Kannapolis).
Usage: The results of this analysis were also used to determine categorical water usage trends by
land use type and spatial trends within utility service areas. This data could be useful to
jurisdictions when developing a capital improvement plan (CIP) list and to study current demand
and future WWTP/WTP capacity upgrades.
1 .t3rtirl uniffim irnwToc GHD I WSACC 2013 Master Plan I Growth Model Documentations

WSACC
-7 z r (ftA
Maintenance Recommendations: The existing land use inventory should be updated every 3 to 5
years on an as needed basis. This dataset would need to be updated prior to updating
development suitability. The water usage analysis should be updated every five years or on an as -
needed basis. Updates will be necessary to determine if water usage trends change, as changes
could substantially impact aggregate demand. The billing data provided for the study was in
different formats and required significant reformatting. Prior to an update utilities should determine
the feasibility of implementing additional reporting capabilities so that historical records could be
provided for each meter in the system (one monthly reading per column). Ideally usage records
could be linked to tax parcel records instead of addresses. This could eliminate geocoding errors.
A working group could be formed that included experts from each utility's billing department in order
to develop a coordinated approach to this problem.
Municipal Utility Service Area Demographic Projections
Housing unit and employment projections were produced for the study area as a whole and for
individual municipal service areas based on historic trends, recent market capture rates and public
and private investments. (See the WSACC Master Plan Municipal Service Area Demographic
Projections Executive Summary, the WSACC Service Area Demographic Projections Report
(Section One) and the WSACC Growth Model Documentation Report (Section Two) for more
information).
Maintenance Recommendations: Housing unit and employment projections for municipal utility
service areas should be updated every 3 to 5 years.
Land Supply
Based on the existing land use inventory, tax parcel records, and stakeholder review, an inventory
of Available land (vacant or undeveloped) and Underutilized land (land likely to be redeveloped or
support additional development) was created. The Available and Underutilized land in combination,
less environmentally constrained areas, is referred to as the "Land Supply". The Land Supply is a
discretely measurable amount of acreage that could accommodate anticipated growth in new
housing and non-residential uses based on projected demand for each. In total the Land Supply
makes up 128,000 acres or 56% of the total land area of the Master Plan Study Area. As part of
the Land Supply, an inventory of "Pending Development" was created based on data provided by
Cabarrus County. These parcels, which account for 8,471 acres (3.7% of the study area, including
18,500 dwelling units), represent approved developments that are anticipated to be complete prior
to the 2040 planning horizon. (See section 3.3 of the WSACC Growth Model Documentation
Report for more information).
Usage: This dataset can assist in a variety of planning efforts where there is a need to quantify the
amount of acreage available for future development. In combination with the Model, the Land
Supply can be used to estimate if there is ample land to accommodate anticipated demand. The
pending development inventory could be maintained and used as an asset by member
governments for ongoing work. Pending development could also be summarized by basin and
used to inform CIP updates.
Maintenance Recommendations: The Land Supply dataset should be updated every 3 to 5 years
or on an as -needed basis. The pending development inventory should be kept up to date with all
developments exceeding an agreed upon threshold (i.e. >50 dwelling units or 50,000 sq.ft. of non -
mass
Lad VVIN
it NENGINEERS
ern/ GHD I WSACC 2013 Master flan I Growth Model Documentation

WSACC
residential buildings). Updates should occur on an ongoing or bi-annual basis. WSACC, Cabarrus
County or a third party could assist in this effort.
Generalized Future Land Use
Currently adopted local land use plans were collected and used to create a set of Generalized
Future Land Use categories. Each category has an associated set of allowable uses and densities
(residential density and non-residential "floor area ratio"). These categories were used by the
Model to determine the capacity of land to accommodate future development. Density assumptions
reflect existing county and municipal agreements for utility provision. (See section 3.4 of the
WSACC Growth Model Documentation Report for more information on the Generalized Future Land
Use component of the Model).
Usage: This component of the model could be adjusted to test the potential impact of land use
plan changes or proposed developments on aggregate water and/or wastewater demand.
Maintenance Recommendations: The Generalized Future Land Use map/inventory should be
updated on a bi-annual basis to take into account updates to local land use plans.
Suitability Analysis
Land suitability represents the likelihood that a parcel will experience growth by 2040, the horizon
year. No two parcels are exactly the same, and the set of characteristics associated with each will
determine its attractiveness, or suitability, for certain uses. A number of economic and
environmental suitability factors were taken into account in the development of the WSACC Growth
Model. These factors vary based on land use type. Suitability analyses were conducted for two
types of residential land uses (Single Family & Multi -Family) and five types of non-residential land
uses (Commercial, Service, Industrial, Office/Institutional/Government, and Lodging). (See section
3.5 of the WSACC Growth Model Documentation Report for more information on the Generalized
Future Land Use component of the Model).
Usage: The suitability analysis can be used during land use plan updates to determine the
appropriate locations for non-residential development. It can also be helpful when determining
which areas of a jurisdiction are likely to experience growth.
Maintenance Recommendations: The Land Suitability Analysis should be updated periodically as
the suitability of available land is effected by new public and private investment on adjacent and
nearby properties. For instance, the construction of new homes can increase the need for retail
and other services or the construction of a school, park or new road can increase the likelihood of
development on adjacent parcels. An update every 3 to 5 years is recommended.
Parcel Based Demand Forecasts (2040 and Intermediate Years)
The Existing Land Use Inventory, Water Usage Rate Analysis, Land Supply, Generalized Future
Land Use Inventory and Suitability Analysis were used by the Model to distribute projected growth
and determine future water and wastewater demand. Parcel based forecasts were created and
aggregated to water and sewer basins. Forecasts were created based on a 2040 horizon year and
5 year increments. The 2040 and intermediate year figures were based on service area control
totals. In total, it is forecasted that residential and non-residential growth in the study area could
result in 14.1 MGD in new demand. This added to a base demand of 12.8 MGD would result in a
T r„- 'A maj(' imam GHD WSACC 2013 Master Plan I Growth Model Documentation)

WSACC
total demand of 26.9 MGD (this water usage estimates includes all member jurisdictions in
Cabarrus County and the Rowan County portion of Kannapolis).
Usage: The forecasts were used to determine demand by water and sewer basin and
infrastructure upgrades and extensions needed for WSACC owned regional facilities. The
disaggregate forecasts could also be used by municipal governments for planning purposes and/or
to inform investment decisions. For instance, utility departments could use the forecasts to
determine potential demand in a sub -watershed to help determine the size needed for a locally
maintained water or sewer line. Member governments may also use the model to investigate
potential implications of approval of a regionally significant development or land use plan change.
Maintenance Recommendations: Components not specified above, including the basin demand
forecasts, should be updated every 3 to 5 years. WSACC may determine updates are needed
intermittently to assist in CIP development or to help inform investment decisions.
The maps in Figures ES-1 and ES-2 below show forecasted growth and water demand, primary
outputs of the Model.
Figure ES-1 Future Household and Employment Growth Distribution
GROWTH DISTRIBUTION 2010-2040
New Growth 2010-2046
'P'""' Land VVINMEn GIN EERs
GHD I WSACC 2013 Master flan I Growth Model Documentation

Figure ES-2 Forecasted New Water Demand (2013-2040)
WATER DEMAND FORECASTS
New Demand 2040 (GPD) 1 SQ_MILES
1.195 - 10.000
10,010- 25.000
25,010- 50,000
50,010- 75.000
75,010 - 100,000
100,100 - 150,000
For More information
WSACC
mmftii�r.
ROWAN
\\ A
The WSACC Growth Model Documentation Report (Section Two) includes a more detailed
accounting of the methods used to derive these forecasts
r T .,.,„ 1AIIi�Chtf`IA�CRC GHD I WSACC 2013 Master Plan I Growth Model Documentation

WSACC
Table of contents
ExecutiveSummary.......................................................................................................................................
i
Introduction.......................................................................................................................................... i
Overviewof the Growth Model.............................................................................................................
i
Existing Land Use Inventory & Water Usage Rates Analysis.............................................................. i
Municipal Utility Service Area Demographic Projections....................................................................
ii
LandSupply........................................................................................................................................
ii
Generalized Future Land Use............................................................................................................
iii
SuitabilityAnalysis.............................................................................................................................
iii
Parcel Based Demand Forecasts (2040 and Intermediate Years) ....................................................
iii
1. Introduction.........................................................................................................................................1
2. Water Usage and Current Water Demand..........................................................................................2
2.1 Existing Land Use.....................................................................................................................
2.2 Water Usage Rate Calculation.................................................................................................2
2.3 Water Usage Rates for Forecasting.........................................................................................4
2.4 Estimate of Current Water Demand by Basin...........................................................................5
3. Future Water and Sewer Demand......................................................................................................6
3.1 Overview of the WSACC Growth Model...................................................................................6
3.2 Housing Unit and Employment Service Area Projections.........................................................6
3.3 The Land Supply.......................................................................................................................
3.4 Future Land Use.....................................................................................................................
10
3.5 Land Use Suitability Analysis..................................................................................................12
3.6 Distribution of Forecasted Growth..........................................................................................15
3.7 Future Water Demand............................................................................................................
17
3.8 Derivation of Future Basin Water Usage and Intermediate Year Demand .............................17
3.9 Build -Out Analysis...................................................................................................................18
Appendices
Appendix A — WSACC Master Plan Stakeholders Group
Appendix B — Project Schedule: Modeling Milestones and Stakeholder Input Opportunities
Appendix C — Supporting Maps and Figures
Appendix D — Supporting Tables
R." Land ENGINEERS

WSACC
1 C_
Nowift
1. Introduction
The Water and Sewer Authority of Cabarrus County (WSACC) developed the FY 2012-2013 Master
Plan (Master Plan) to guide future investment in regionally significant water and sewer
infrastructure. The team of consultants, led by GHD and supported by LandDesign and Willis
Engineers (Project Team), facilitated the planning process. The Master Plan is meant to determine
major utility infrastructure needs in Cabarrus County and a portion of Rowan County between 2013
and the plan horizon year of 2040. LandDesign was responsible for developing future year water
demand forecasts to inform the Master Plan. This document provides a detailed accounting of the
methods used to derive these forecasts. Noell Consulting Group (NCG) assisted the Project Team
by providing demographic forecasts, by municipal utility service area, which were used in the
development of the demand forecasts. The WSACC Service Area Demographic Projections Report
(included as section 1 of this document) details the methods and results of the service area
forecasting effort.
Forecasted water and sewer demand for the WSACC service area was developed based on an
analysis of existing conditions and the development of a growth forecasting model. Understanding
current water usage is an essential component of estimating future demand. Estimating current
demand involved geocoding (mapping based on address) water usage records, developing an
existing land use inventory and analysing current water usage rates by land use type. The estimate
of current water usage was developed by aggregating geocoded water usage records to basins and
adding in estimated non-geocoded usage by applying generalized usage factors. This process is
described in Section 2 of this report.
The WSACC Growth Model (The Model) was constructed to forecast future water and sewer
demand. The Model was developed over a 10-month period with regular input from a technical
team of stakeholders, comprised of representatives from WSACC member jurisdictions. These
Stakeholders included planners and utility managers that provided direct feedback on components
of the Model and reviewed draft forecasts to ensure consistency with local efforts. A list of the
WSACC Master Plan Stakeholders Group members is included in WSACC Master Plan
Stakeholders Group. A list of project milestones and stakeholder input opportunities is included in
Appendix B: Project Schedule: Modeling Milestones and Stakeholder Input Opportunities.
The Model is a parcel -based growth forecasting model developed with Geographic Information
System (GIS) datasets and software. It was created with CommunityViz, a software extension to
Esri's ArcGIS created by Placeways LLC. CommunityViz's Scenario 360 provides a platform for
creating disaggregate probability -based dwelling unit and employment forecasts by determining the
probable distribution of housing units and employment locations based on currently adopted land
use policy regulations and suitability of available land. Current usage rates, by land use, were
applied to the demographic forecasts in order to estimate future demand. The process used to
forecast future demand is described in Section 3 of this report.
ENGINUDC
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2. Water Usage and Current Water
Demand
2.1 Existing Land Use
Understanding current land use and water usage trends was the first step in estimating future
demand. The amount of water used on a given property varies based on how the land is used. For
instance, a commercial property with restaurants will have a very different water usage rate than the
same size property with a single family home. Tax parcel records allow for the activities, functions,
structures and character of a property to be taken into account and used to classify the property into
generalized land use categories. Creating an existing land use inventory in the study area was
necessary prior to determining water usage trends.
In order to create an existing land use inventory, Cabarrus County tax assessor data was obtained
and land use by parcel was derived from type and use codes in the datasets. A lookup table was
created to translate Cabarrus County Use Codes to a set of intermediate generalized land use
classes. Land use types in the assessor's table were combined based on similar uses. For
example, the "SHOP MALL" and "SHOP STRIP" land use types were combined into one general
Commercial (COM) category.
Generalized land use maps were created based on this set of land uses and distributed to
municipal stakeholders for review and comment. Manual fixes were made based on stakeholder
comments. Edits were also made based on improvement and use codes and an inventory of Parks
and Conservation Easements provided by the county. The set of intermediate generalized land use
categories was further refined based on water usage statistics to arrive at a collapsed set of land
use categories. For example, the Highway Commercial and Commercial categories were combined
since they had similar water usage characteristics. A map of the existing land use inventory for the
study area is included in the Appendix C: Supporting Maps.
Note: The WSACC Study Area extends into Rowan County in tandem with the extent of Kannapolis's extra
territorial jurisdiction (ETJ). Rowan County tax data was acquired to be used during the forecasting effort, but
not in time to be included as part of the water usage analysis.
2.2 Water Usage Rate Calculation
Understanding local trends in water usage rates for different land use categories is an essential part
of accurately forecasting water usage. Existing usage rates by land use category were derived
based on the existing land use inventory described in the previous section and water billing data
provided by municipal utilities. Municipal utilities provided water usage records by meter for
January 2010-September of 2012. The data provided was in different formats. Some utilities
provided data as requested (one row per meter with columns for monthly readings). Others
provided one record for each monthly reading. In order to geocode the data, it had to be
standardized. This process required monthly readings for each meter to be joined together. In
some cases it was necessary to summarize the data by meter (the rare occasion when there were
two readings for the same meter for the same month). This was done in order to reflect the actual
amount of water usage in the study area. Median usage was calculated for each meter.
The tables of water usage were then geocoded based on a parcel dataset provided by Cabarrus
County. The geocoding process entailed using address data from billing records to map usage
mass
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rates by parcel. The geocode resulted in a 94% match rate for all usage records. Six percent of
the records could not be mapped correctly due to errors in the billing data or the parcel dataset
used. Geocoding match rates are included in Table 2-1.
Table 2-1: Water Usage Geocoding Match Rates by Municipality
Concord (Including Midland)
Matched
29,150
Unmatched
1,392
Total
RecordsCity
30,542
%
-.
95%
% Unmatched
5%
Harrisburg
6,387
340
6,727
95%
5%
Kannapolis
15,373
1,172
16,545
93%
7%
Mt. Pleasant
1,055
153
1,208
87%
13%
Total
51,956
3,066
55,022
94%
6%
Median monthly water usage by jurisdiction totals 415,037,833 gallons. Table 2-2 shows median
monthly usage by jurisdiction as well as what percentage of the usage that was geocoded
successfully.
Table 2-2: Median Monthly Usage by Jurisdiction and Geocoding Results
City
Total Monthly
Median Water
Total Monthly Median
Usage Water Usage
Total Median
Monthly
% Matched
Median Monthly
Concord
(Inc. Midland)
Matched
218,544,160
Unmatched
59,428,106
Water Usage
277,972,266
Water Usage
79%
Harrisburg
36,112,747
4,355,443
40,468,190
89%
Kannapolis
66,683,822
24,047,463
90,731,285
73%
Mt. Pleasant
5,135,572
730,520
5,866,092
88%
Total
310,758,091
104,279,742
415,037,833
79%
2.2.1 Accounting of Unmatched Water Usage
In total, 6% of the usage records could not be matched to a correct address. This resulted in
104,279,742 gallons of monthly water usage (21 % of the total) that was not mapped to a parcel.
These records were reviewed to determine the reasons for inaccurate geocoding results. Concord
had the largest amount of water usage that was not geocoded on the parcel level. Of these
unmatched records 28 million gallons per month of median usage had a street address of 0 City
Hall, Harrisburg, NC. It is assumed that this usage was being sold to Harrisburg and was taken into
account in the Harrisburg water usage records. At the time of this analysis, parcel records from
Rowan County, necessary to derive generalized land use classes, were not provided. Therefore
3,847 parcels in northern Kannapolis (those located in Rowan County) were not included in the
analysis. This represents a median monthly water usage of 12.5 million gallons. Water usage for
these parcels has since been geocoded and was taken into account as contributing to current year
usage by basin. The additional unmatched usage was determined to result from inaccurate
address data. For the purposes of this study it was determined that manually correcting the 3,000
unmatched records was not essential as it represented a small percentage of the total.
Land MEHENIZENGINEERS GHD I WSACC 2013 Master Plan I Growth Model Documentation) 3

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2.2.2 Median Monthly Usage to Mean Usage by Land Use Category
In some circumstances there were multiple meters on one parcel. Usage for these meters was
summarized by parcel. Median monthly water usage was calculated and summed by generalized
land use category. A mean of the median monthly usage rate was determined for each land use
category. Null values were excluded. These mean usage rates were normalized by housing units
(for residential land use classes) and per 1,000 square feet of heated area (for non-residential land
use classes). Generalized land use categories were collapsed based on water usage rates in order
to simplify the number of categories of residential and non-residential categories to be forecasted.
A table of collapsed generalized land use categories is included in Table 2-3.
2.3 Water Usage Rates for Forecasting
Usage rates for forecasting were developed by the Project Team based on actual usage rates.
Table 2-3 shows existing water usage rates by generalized land use categories and usage rates
that were applied to forecasted residential units and non-residential square footage in order to
estimate future demand.
Table 2-3: Water Usage Rates by Generalized Existing Land Use Class
Land Use Categories*
-.Usage
Geocoded Usage
be used for
Records)Generalized
Mean Water
Water
GENLU
Description
Examples
Usage Per Unit
Usage Unit
Day**
COM
Commercial, Highway
FOOD LION, BEST BUY,
gpd per
125
gpd per
Commercial, Retail
CIRCLE K, SUNTRUST
90
1k sq.ft.
sq.ft.
IND
Industrial and Warehouse
FEDERAL EXPRESS, S&D
gpd per
150
gpd per
1 k
COFFEE
112
1 k sq.ft.
sq.ft.
Office, Institutional,
NORTHEAST MEDICAL
gpd per
gpd per
OIGOV
Government and Schools
CENTER, CABARRUS
99
1 k sq.ft.
150
1 k
CO.SCH.ADMIN.
sq.ft.
LODGING
Hotel/Motel
HOLIDAY INN EXPRESS,
gpd per
200
gpd per
1k
COMFORT SUITES
166
1k sq.ft.
sq.ft.
SERVICE
Service (incl. Restaurants,
T.G.I. FRIDAY'S, CAROLINA
gpd per
650
gpd per
1 k
Car Washes, Salons)
CAR WASH
521
1 k sq.ft.
SF
Single Family
Detached SF
gpd per
200
gpd per
168
unit
unit
TWNHS
Townhouse
Attached SF
gpd per
200
gpd per
81
unit
unit
MF
Multi -Family
Mobile Homes and
gpd per
200
gpd per
Apartments
158
unit
unit
*Generalized Land Use based on Cabarrus County tax parcel records (does not include parts of Kannapolis located in
Rowan County)
**Mean daily usage of geocoded median monthly usage per parcel
2.3.1 Water Usage Rate Validation
It was necessary to validate a sample of parcels in order to verify the accuracy of usage rates for
generalized land use categories. Random selections of 25 records were created and analysed by
the Project Team. In addition, individual sample sites by land use category were investigated to
ensure that mean usage rates were reasonable. This data was used to support collapsing
generalized land use categories. A "back -cast" of existing usage was completed in order to
some
1� 111SENGMER
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WSACC
determine if mean usage rates could be used to reconstruct actual usage. Monthly usage for all
parcels with land uses in the collapsed generalized land use table was estimated to be 318,603,146
gallons. Actual usage for these parcels is 291,676,438. The estimate was within 9% of actual
usage. Additional documentation regarding validation steps is included in the Generalized Land
Use and Water Usage Rates Technical Memo.
2.4 Estimate of Current Water Demand by Basin
Water and sewer basins (basins) were delineated by Willis Engineers. These basins represent
portions of large drainage basins that were modified to follow water service and wastewater
drainage networks. Developing an estimate of current water demand by basin was a two part
process. First, a mean water usage per month and per day (per month/30) was estimated for all
parcels with geocoded water usage. Water usage for the last year of data (October 2011-
September 2012) was used to derive the mean. This mean usage was aggregated to the basins
based on parcel centroids (the geometric center of a tax parcel). Second, non-geocoded water
usage was estimated by basin. As shown in Table 2-2, all geocoded water usage amounted to 310
million gallons per month (MGM). Unmatched/non-geocoded water usage totalled 104 MGM, or
21 % of all usage. The distribution of this non-geocoded water usage was estimated based on the
following methodology:
• Selected "utilized" parcels (see Land Supply section for definition), within 100 ft. of existing
sewer lines, without any geocoded water usage.
Applied generalized usage rates based on land use of parcels (Estimated usage was 117
MGM).
0 Applied a factor of 0.8895% to each parcel estimate (as non-geocoded target of 104 MGM
was known from analysis of water usage records).
• Aggregated estimated water usage to basins.
The results of these steps were geocoded base water usage (current year) and estimated non-
geocoded water usage for each basin. These two values were added together to provide an
estimate of current water demand by basin, which is shown in Map 2 in Appendix A. This data was
provided to the Project Team in a spreadsheet that contained estimates for current year usage in
gallons per month (GPM) and gallons per day (GPD).
= GHD I WSACC 2013 Master Plan I Growth Model Documentation] 5

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3. Future Water and Sewer Demand
3.1 Overview of the WSACC Growth Model
Integral to the estimation of future water and sewer demand for the WSACC service area was the
development of a growth forecasting model. The WSACC Growth Model is a parcel -based growth
forecasting model developed with Geographic Information System (GIS) datasets and software.
The Model was created with CommunityViz, a software extension to Esri's ArcGIS 10 desktop
software that provides a platform for creating disaggregate probability -based dwelling unit and
employment forecasts by determining the probable distribution of housing units and employment
locations based on currently adopted land use policy regulations and suitability of available land.
The Model is made up of four components: municipal utility service area housing unit and
employment projections, the available land supply, generalized future land use, and the land use
suitability analysis. Each component is made up of a set of assumptions that influence the
distribution of future growth.
The Model components and service area demographic projections were developed over a 10-
month period with regular input from a technical team of stakeholders, comprised of representatives
of WSACC member jurisdictions. The following sections detail the components of the Model.
3.2 Housing Unit and Employment Service Area Projections
3.2.1 Overview
Residential and non-residential projections were produced for the study area as a whole and for
individual municipal service areas. Noell Consulting Group (NCG) was responsible for the creation
of the service area projections. These service area projections, also referred to as control totals,
were used as inputs for the WSACC Growth Model. The control totals were presented to the
WSACC Stakeholders Group in January of 2013. Adjustments were made based on comments
from stakeholders and revised figures were provided during the WSACC Stakeholders Group
meeting in March of 2013.
A graph of study area dwelling unit and employment projections is included below:
PENE"I man*
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WSACC
Figure 3-1: Study Area Estimates and Projections
140,000
120,000
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
Dwelling Unit and Employment
Estimates and Projections
131,965
an r 103,727 _
Ir ''
a a
L07
1980 1990 2000 2010 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
�— Dwelling Units (Estimated) —E— Dwelling Units (Projected) Jobs (Projected)
3.2.2 Methodology
Projections were based on historic trends, recent market capture rates and public and private
investments. Projection units were based on the results of the water usage analysis. Housing and
employment categories were defined based on similar usage rates. Residential demand
projections in terms of new dwelling units were produced for the following housing types: Single
Family, Town home, and Multi -family. Non-residential projections in terms of new square footage
and employees were produced for the following industry types: Commercial, OIGOV (Office,
Institutional, Government), Service, Industrial, and Lodging.
The methods used to develop the study area and service area projections are described in detail in
the WSACC Service Area Demographic Projections Report.
3.2.3 Municipal Utility Service Area Control Totals
The following table details employment projections for the municipal utility service areas within the
WSACC Master Plan Study Area. Job growth is expected to be 64%. Municipalities closer to 1-85
and Mecklenburg County will continue to experience more job growth than those areas in the
eastern and southern parts of Cabarrus County.
I d MIKER 7 GHD I WSACC 2013 Master Plan I Growth Model Documentation) 7

Table 3-1: Study Area and Municipal Service Area Employment Control Totals
Total EMP, 2012 11,542 44,923 4,362 1,028 11
WSACC
�i.
934 307 63,107
Industrial
1,200
3,848
505
1,010
72
184
111
6,929
Commercial
914
3,446
433
593
125
331
5
5,846
OIGOV
4,541
12,605
2,613
1,220
0
1,149
117
22,245
Lodge
98
555
62
31
19
27
0
793
Service
504
3,426
449
181
100
146
0
4,806
Total Added
7,256
23,880
4,061
3,035
316
1,838
234
40,620
Total EMP, 2040
18,798
68,803
8,423
4,063
327
2,773
540
103,727
The following table details residential projections for the municipal utility service areas within the WSACC Master Plan Study Area. Housing units
are expected to increase by 65%. Concord, Kannapolis and Harrisburg continue to grow at a rapid pace. The Town of Midland is expected to
double in population due to its proximity to the Charlotte metro area. Market demand will lead to more diverse housing types.
Table 3-2: Study Area and Municipal Service Area Residential Control Totals
PM" amn
llhi i
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ii�=
3.3 The Land Supply
A critical component of the growth forecasting process is the determination of where growth is likely
to occur. Parcels with existing residential, commercial/office, industrial, park/recreation, and
institutional/public land uses are excluded from the "supply". Therefore, future households or jobs
cannot be allocated to these "Utilized" or developed parcels in the model run.
Based on the aforementioned development of an existing land use inventory, an analysis of tax
parcel records to determine a structure value to land value ratio, and stakeholder review, an
inventory of Available (vacant or undeveloped) and Underutilized land (land likely to experience
redevelopment or additional development) was created. The Available and Underutilized land in
combination is referred to as the "Land Supply". In total the Land Supply makes up 128,000 acres
or 56% of the total land area of the Master Plan Study Area.
An inventory of "Pending Development" was created based on data provided by Cabarrus County.
These parcels, which account for 8,471 acres (3.7% of the study area), represent approved
developments that are anticipated to be complete prior to the 2040 planning horizon. For modelling
purposes Land Supply parcels included in Pending Developments were classified as "Pending".
Later in this report, the allocation of a portion of the projected growth to "Pending" parcels is
explained (see Section 3.6.2).
Areas not available for development, due to regulated environmental features, were identified.
These areas, including wetlands, lakes, floodplains (designated flood hazard areas), and regulated
riparian buffers, were removed from the Land Supply. A composite environmental constraints
inventory was created based on merging GIS datasets. A map of this environmental constraints
inventory is included in the Appendix as Map 3.
A chart and table detailing available, underutilized, utilized and pending development percentages
is included as Figure 3-2 and Table 3-3. A map of the Land Supply is included in the Appendix as
Map 4.
Figure 3-2: Land Supply Summary
Land Supply
WSACC Study Area Summary
4%
36%
40 %
20%
Available Underutilized Utilized Pending
1,and ENGIIANLOMR GHD I WSACC 2013 Master Plan I Growth Model Documentation] 9

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Table 3-3: Land Supply by Municipal Utility Service Area
Service Area (SA)
Concord
Available
Acres
18,312
Land
% of
Total
27%
Underutilized
Acres
11,585
Utilized/Built
% of Acres
Total
17% 33,950
% of
Total
50%
Pending
Acres
4,283
% of
Total
6%
Total Land
Area
68,131
Harrisburg
5,536
35%
3,682
23%
5,609
35%
1,180
7%
16,007
Kanna olis
13,798
32%
7,138
17%
19,851
47%
1,894
4%
42,681
Locust
30
5%
47
9%
66
12%
401
74%
544
Midland
14,501
42%
8,592
25%
10,629
31 %
615
2%
34,338
Mt. Pleasant
11,412
41 %
6,417
23%
10,229
36%
84
0%
28,143
Northeast
18,613
48%
9,030
23%
10,790
28%
13
0%
38,447
WSACC Service
Area Totals
82,203
36%
46,492
20%
91,124
40%
8,471
4%
228,290
The Available Land Supply is determined by subtracting environmentally constrained areas from
Available and Underutilized lands. In the WSACC Study Area it is estimated that the Available
Land Supply is 120,771 acres (or 53% of the total area).
3.4 Future Land Use
After determining where growth can occur, it is necessary to determine how much development can
occur on parcels of land. Local land use policy addresses the maximum allowable development
capacity of parcels. Such policies are implemented through the local regulations. Local
governments throughout the WSACC study area adopt land use plans and administer land use
regulations to limit the intensity of site development measured in residential dwelling units per acre
and non-residential square footage (expressed as a ratio to the total acreage of the parcel, or "floor
area ratio"). Collectively, allowable uses and densities, per adopted land use plans, will shape the
type and intensity of future development.
County and municipal land use plans were collected. Since the land use plans and regulations vary
from one jurisdiction to the next, a set of generalized future land use categories (GFLU) were
developed. Each locally -defined land use category was assigned a GFLU category to simplify the
coding necessary in the Model. For example, the Institutional/Civic designation in Concord's Land
Use Plan and the Community Service designation in the Mount Pleasant Land Use Plan are defined
as institutional use categories and therefore both have been assigned to the Institutional GFLU
category. The future land use classes were assigned to available and underutilized land (i.e. the
Land Supply) to determine the capacity of the land to accommodate future development. A map of
generalized land use categories is included in Appendix C: Supporting Maps and Figures.
A table detailing the GFLU categories that were used in the WSACC Growth Model is included in
Appendix D: Supporting Tables. This table shows allowable uses, dwelling unit density and FAR by
GFLU category. This information was used in the Model to calculate the "capacity" of each parcel
to accommodate development. A lookup table indicating the links between locally adopted future
land use categories and the generalized categories is also included in Appendix D: Supporting
Tables.
Using the adopted land use plans for guidance, generalized future land use categories were
assigned in accordance with the following methodology:
Land. MMSENGINEERS
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WSACC
Extraterritorial Jurisdiction (ETJ) and City Limits were used as a starting point for determining
where municipal plans should be applied. A boundary file for ETJ limits was provided by
Cabarrus County GIS. These were adjusted to take into account recent city limit expansions
(based on a city limit GIS file provided by Cabarrus County).
Outside of ETJ and City Limits, adopted Cabarrus County land use plans were used.
In the absence of an adopted land use plan in an area within the County's jurisdiction, County
zoning was used to determine the future land use.
There are portions of the study area where multiple land use plans prescribe future land uses for
the same area. It was necessary to develop a methodology for determining which land use plan to
acknowledge in the assignment of generalized future land use categories. The criteria that were
used are listed below. -
If a municipal land use plan includes in its study area an area outside of the ETJ or City
Limits, and there is municipal utility infrastructure in place, and future land use differs from
County, then municipal future land use is used, but only for the sub -basin served by
infrastructure. The following are four instances where these criteria altered the future land
use pattern in the County's jurisdictional area.
— Midland: Muddy Creek Basin and the basin of an unnamed tributary NE side of 601 south
of town.
— Mount Pleasant: Wedge between NC 73 and NC 49 and Adams Creek Basin north of
Cold Springs Road.
— Concord: South of NC 73 in the NW corner of the Concord Utility Service Area.
— Kannapolis: South and west of Odell School Road.
• Where more than one plan has been adopted within the same jurisdiction, the more recently
adopted plan was used. (i.e. Cabarrus County Central Area Plan was used in place of the
Cabarrus County Eastern Area Plan where they overlapped, since the CAP was adopted in
2008 and the EAP was adopted in 2003).
Future land use assumptions were presented to the WSACC Stakeholders Group in January. GIS
files and pdf maps of the Land Supply and Generalized Future Land Use map were made available
to the Stakeholders. Coordination with the Stakeholders led to adjustments to the Land Supply and
the Future Land Use map during January and February of 2013.
The following table details acreage totals in the WSACC Study Area by Generalized Future Land
Use class. A Generalized Future Land Use map is included in Appendix C: Supporting Maps and
Figures.
Table 3-4: Generalized Future Land Use Summary
Generalized
CMU
-
Commercial Mixed Use
2,586
, of Total
1.1 %
COM
Commercial
4,680
2.1 %
ENT
Entertainment Racetrack
941
0.4%
GMU
General Mixed Use
7,891
3.5%
HDRES
High Density Residential
2,822
1.2%
IND
Industrial
10,385
4.5%
INST
Institutional
2,545
1.1 %
LDRES
Low Density Residential
18,610
8.2%
MDRES
Medium Density Residential
43,762
19.2%
W." Issen
Land GHQ I WSACC 2013 Master flan I Growth Model Documentations 11

WSACC
Generalized
MHDRES
Description
Medium -High Density Residential
1,923
0.8%
MLDRES
Medium -Low Density Residential
11,998
5.3%
OFF
Office
518
0.2%
OI
Office and Industrial
2,680
1.2%
OS
Open Space
2,471
1.1 %
RMU
Residential Mixed Use
3,751
1.6%
ROW
Right -Of -Way
49
0.0%
RRES
Rural Residential
73,361
32.1 %
TCMU
Town Center Mixed Use
1,798
0.8%
VLDRES
Very Low Density Residential
35,520
15.6%
3.5 Land Use Suitability Analysis
Land suitability represents the likelihood that a parcel will experience growth by 2040, the horizon
year. No two parcels are exactly the same, and the set of characteristics associated with each will
determine its attractiveness, or suitability, for certain uses.
Suitability can be defined as, "the fitness of a given unit of land for a specified use."
Smart Land -Use Analysis, Margaret Carr and Paul Zwick
A number of economic and environmental suitability factors were taken into account in the
development of the WSACC Growth Model. These factors vary based on land use type. Suitability
analyses were conducted for two types of residential land uses (Single Family & Multi -Family) and
five types of non-residential land uses (Commercial, Service, Industrial,
Office/Institutional/Government, and Lodging). Suitability was calculated on a parcel level using
raster grids and the CommunityViz Suitability Wizard. Each parcel received a suitability score on a
100 point scale for each land use type. Suitability factors, by land use type, are listed below. Even
weights were used for each factor. Land use suitability maps are included in Appendix C:
Supporting Maps and Figures.
Sites that are close to schools and parks, have water or sewer service (public or private supply),
and are located some distance from highways and intense non-residential development are
considered suitable for single family residential development.
Single Family Residential Suitability Factors
• Lands near existing single family development
• Lands near existing commercial and services
• Lands near schools
• Lands near parks
• Lands not proximal to industrial uses
• Lands near Charlotte
• Lands with buildable slope
• Lands not environmentally constrained
• Lands not adjacent to major roads
• Lands proximal to water supply lines
_q (MNLana. U9111ME GINEERS
GHD I WSACC 2013 Master Plan I Growth Model Documentation] 12

WSACC
• Lands proximal to sewer collection line
• Lands on large parcels
Sites that are close to schools and parks, have water or sewer service (public or private supply),
and are located near existing apartments and condos are considered suitable for multi -family
residential development.
Multi -Family Residential Suitability Factors
• Lands near existing multi -family development
• Lands within and proximal to city limits
• Lands near schools
• Lands not proximal to industrial uses
• Lands near Charlotte
• Lands proximal to major roads (existing and future)
• Lands proximal to water supply lines
• Lands proximal to sewer collection line
• Lands with buildable slope
• Lands not environmentally constrained
Commercial and service development (i.e. retail and restaurants) gravitates to sites that have public
water and sewer service and convenient access to transportation infrastructure (i.e. highway exits);
visibility from high traffic roadways and close proximity to concentrations of residential development
are also essential features that make a site suitable for these uses.
Commercial/Service Suitability Factors
• Lands near concentrations of existing residential development
• Lands near existing commercial and services
• Lands adjacent to accessible high traffic roadways
• Lands proximal to major roads (existing and future)
• Lands proximal to exits
• Lands proximal to water supply lines
• Lands proximal to sewer collection line
• Lands not environmentally constrained
• Lands with buildable slope
• Lands not in water supply watersheds
Industrial development tends to locate on large sites with relatively flat terrain, public water and
sewer service, and convenient access to transportation infrastructure (i.e., highways and rail lines).
Industrial Suitability Factors
• Lands not proximal to incompatible residential uses
P.M ..411111111112
GHD I WSACC 2013 Master Plan I Growth Model Documentation) 13

WSACC
mwm--._.tip .
7-'
• Lands proximal to existing industrial land uses
• Lands proximal to major roads (existing and future)
• Lands proximal to Interstates (existing and future)
• Lands proximal to railroads
• Lands proximal to current and future exits
• Lands proximal to water supply lines
• Lands proximal to sewer collection line
• Lands not environmentally constrained
• Lands with buildable slope
• Lands not in water supply watersheds
• Lands part of large parcels
Office, institutional and government land uses tend to locate in areas similar to commercial and
service uses; however, visibility from high traffic roadways is not a key factor. Larger parcels near
existing office and institutional land uses, including schools and hospitals are preferred.
Office, Institutional, Government Suitability Factors
• Lands near existing office, institutional, government and schools
• Lands near concentrations of existing residential development
• Lands proximal to water supply lines
• Lands proximal to sewer collection line
• Lands not environmentally constrained
• Lands with buildable slope
• Lands proximal to major roads (existing and future)
• Proximity to hospitals
• Lands part of large parcels
Hotels gravitate towards areas with public utilities that are also located near divided highway exits,
existing hotels, and special uses (such as the Charlotte Motor Speedway).
Lodging Suitability Factors
• Lands near existing lodging
• Lands with a high density of hotel rooms
• Lands near existing commercial and services
• Lands near regional activity centers
• Proximity to hospitals
• Lands proximal to exits
• Lands proximal to major roads (existing and future)
an San E%1WFRS
, GHD I WS^CC 2013 Master Plan I Growth Model Documentation) 14

WSACC
• Lands proximal to water supply lines
• Lands proximal to sewer collection line
• Lands with buildable slope
• Lands not environmentally constrained
• Lands part of large parcels
3.6 Distribution of Forecasted Growth
3.6.1 Capacity Calculation
The WSACC Growth Model is a two tier model comprised of a master parcel dataset' and seven
sub -models, one for each municipal utility service area. Once the Available Land Supply is
identified, Generalized Future Land Use categories are assigned, and then capacity to is calculated
on individual parcels. Capacity can be defined as the amount of dwelling units and employees that
can be accommodated given current land use policy (see section 3.4). These calculations are done
using Dynamic Attributes in the CommunityViz software. Dynamic Attributes are fields in a feature
class attribute table that are automatically updated based on adjustments to other attributes. This is
a unique capability of CommunityViz and was incorporated into the Model in order to facilitate future
updates. For instance, changes to the future land use of a parcel (or group of parcels), due to a
rezoning or comprehensive plan update, can be made. Dynamic Attributes enable the automated
calculation of future water/sewer demand resulting from the change in land use.
3.6.2 Growth Distribution
Future dwelling units and employment are distributed to parcels, by service area, using the sub -
models. In order to facilitate this, the master parcel dataset is first split by service area using a
Geoprocessing Model (a set of tasks automated using the functionality of ArcGIS Model Builder).
' Note that large parcels were split by a grid
7- o I��li�x � � CNUINERS H W 1 G I S,�CC 2. 3 Master flan I Growth Model Documentationi 15

WSACC_
fed
Figure 3-3: Geoprocessing Model Used to Split Parcels by Municipal Utility
Service Area
4— Split Parcels by SA
Model Edit Insert View Windows Help
®fir' *R"qftx soY'31*1 Yt V
P
_ P
Copy Features `I6Value%-SA._ `
Sub_M el
Once the sub -model datasets are created for each service area it is necessary to distribute future
growth. First, pending development is subtracted from total projected growth. Residential pending
developments, totalling 14,803 single family and 3,782 multi -family dwelling units, were hard coded
to individual parcels based on data provided by Cabarrus County. These dwelling unit totals were
subtracted from service area control totals. The remainder is distributed using a probability -based
formula that distributes more growth to parcels that are more suitable. This step is accomplished
using the CommunityViz Scenario 360 Allocator Wizard (see Figure 3-4). The North Carolina
Research Campus (NCRC), in Kannapolis, was treated as a special use area in the Model. It was
coded as a pending development that received 2,000 employees by 2040. These employees are
included in the OIGOV employment total for Kannapolis in Table 3-1. All employment growth from
the service area control totals, less the NCRC amount, is distributed using the same probability -
based formula. The housing unit and employment totals, less pending development totals, were
hard coded as Assumptions in the Model. Assumptions are a designated numeric value in
CommunityViz Scenario 360 that can be referenced in allocations and Dynamic Attribute formulas.
Using Assumptions automates the forecasting process and reduces opportunities for errors.
MCare 111SENGii� RS
,'.. I GHD I WSACC 2013 Master Plan I Growth Model Documentations 16

WSACC
MEN
Figure 3-4: CommunityViz Scenario 360 Allocator Wizard Dialog
L, Altocata Wizard - RA 5FL,
Af facatwon SCORW
Ch4melhe ark, ratFraro sw0y demvrd target la,f°tr ark ether 5reM cgs
.h x
Lapw select the layer f* vA1 * ffae reae ees VAN
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be alkzaldd.
r
seietl the a&&Ae 3hat Cordaim >i e
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Re uft Select tte annbufe m v-+tch lae amcce.;nt of
Sf Ou
Fmourccs allocated tc each featine AA bt
' }
Savoy seie:cd the atlrrbeate that ersrwtwm due ravbaty�
i SFDtCAP
w:a eaae ya for h word
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D7etr►ttttd Select d* amc� d reswcss %, aikc aie
(fi) Type is a t�.prb& air saiect e,
i A SF Urt Ft r
tr atar or d S'S'V" r
Atlocatcsr Wizard BA SF
Alfac4tor Type
Cite the nx4e od de47xa s t- %J+
ftabon Tvve
Strsd Order - each *9ure #s fined to capac* in cleats ng arder of scae
Probabhty Based sme t terms the probaW cy° that a mntit of demar4 is alloaabd 1a
# a parlor —Jar feature oft is ft MRWWMA*AW
pmbabw S
Unear -the Omba%litfr of a car ai of dwrand beong agacated to a featoe cs t9sat 164twe s
so ue, dmded by Im toW scare od all kmhoes skid+ reenortrV capacity
Expcaaaeaatfai • features mth Ngtw scares tyre a naaaeh greatar p obabbry c4 gang used
d tfrastc xath tamer smers
A map of the household and employment distribution output from the Model is included in Map 12 in
the Appendix.
3.7 Future Water Demand
The results of the sub -models were merged back to a composite parcel dataset using a
Geoprocessing Model (see Figure C-1 in Appendix C: Supporting Maps). This is done in order to
consolidate all service area forecasts into one dataset so that forecasted households and
employment can be used to calculate future demand. Future water demand was calculated for
each parcel in the WSACC Master Plan Study Area using a Geoprocessing Model (see Figure C-2
in the Appendix). Usage rates were applied to dwelling units and employment that were distributed
to parcels.
3.8 Derivation of Future Basin Water Usage and Intermediate Year
Demand
Future water demand was aggregated from the parcel level to the water and sewer basins2. A map
of new water demand by basin is included in Map 13 of the Appendix. A map showing total water
demand in 2040 (current + new) is included as Map 14 of the Appendix.
Growth rates were applied on the basin level. Build out percentages for each municipal utility
service areas for each intermediate horizon year (2015, 2020, 2025, 2030, and 2035) were coded
as Assumptions in the Model. These growth rates were derived from the service area control totals
(see the WSACC Service Area Demographic Projections Report for more information). These were
applied to all growth totals distributed to parcels within the service areas, except Pending
Developments. Pending Developments were assumed to build out in the following percentages:
(2015-15%, 2020-50%, 2025-85%, 2030-95%, 2035-100%). These rates were used for Pending
Development in order to acknowledge that these developments would be built slightly earlier than
the remainder of the service area, while honouring service area build out rates projected by NCG.
2 The OverlapSum function was used in CommunityViz Scenario 360 to accomplish this task. See
http://placeways.com/downloads/CV4/Working%20with%20formulas%20and%20functions°%20in%20Scenario%20360-4-0.pdf
for more information.
Land -V 1-M-1 ENGINEERS
GHD I WSACC 2013 Master Plan ► Growth Model Documentation) 17

WSACC
00 --- � ,M
Sub -basin demand projections provided to Willis Engineers and were used as inputs into the
Wastewater Transportation Model. More information on the use of the demand forecasts and the
projects recommended to accommodate the increases is included in Section 5 of the Master Plan
report.
3.9 Build -Out Analysis
As a part of the project, a build out analysis was conducted in order to determine if service areas
could accommodate projected residential and non-residential demand given currently adopted land
use plans. Capacity, per future land use plans, was summarized by municipal utility service area
and then compared to demand (projected households and employment from NCG). It was found
that in most service areas there is ample capacity to accommodate projected demand. However,
the projections indicate that Harrisburg will be nearly built out by 2040, with single family demand
approaching capacity. Tables illustrating the results of the Residential and Non -Residential Build -
Out Analysis are included in Appendix D: Supporting Tables as Table D-3 and Table D-4.
The build -out analysis also enabled the team to consider the potential water demand at the basin
level if all of the available parcels in that area were built to the maximum density allowable. In order
to facilitate this, water usage rates were applied to the capacity estimates by parcel and aggregated
to basins. This data was used by the Project Team as a component of the infrastructure needs
analysis.
Land =11USENGINERS
�J GHD I WSACC 2013 Master Plan I Growth Model Documentations 18

WSACC
Land UVINWENGINEERS
GHD I WSACC 2013 Master Plan I Growth Model Documentation] 19

WSACC
Appendix A - WSACC Master Plan Stakeholders
Group
Susie Morris
Jonathan Marshall
Margaret Pearson
Christie Putnam
Kevin Ashley
Josh Watkins
Mike Rose
Wilmer Melton
Kris Krider
Kassie Watts
John McHenry
Richard Flowe
David Pugh
Brian Wilson
David Flowe
Troy Barnhardt
Vagn Hansen
Andy Goodall
Cabarrus County
Cabarrus County
City of Concord
City of Concord
City of Concord
Town of Harrisburg
Town of Harrisburg
City of Kannapolis
City of Kannapolis
City of Kannapolis
City of Kannapolis
Town of Midland
Town of Midland
Town of Midland
Town of Midland
Town of Mount Pleasant
Town of Mount Pleasant
Town of Mount Pleasant
PRIERN Land
UVINISENGINEERS
GHD I WSACC 2013 Master Plan I Growth Model Documentation] 20

WSACC
Appendix B —Project Schedule: Modeling Milestones
and Stakeholder Input Opportunities
11-Oct-12
WSACC Stakeholders
Kick -Off Meeting
Oct -Nov 2012
Jurisdictional Meetings
16-Jan-13
WSACC Stakeholders
Meeting
21-Jan-13
Data Provided to
WSACC Stakeholders
For Review
Discussed role of Stakeholders, requested data,
scheduled individual stakeholder meetings
Meeting with WSACC Stakeholders to discuss
outstanding data needs, existing conditions (existing land
use inventory, base year employment inventory, and land
supply maps), proposed developments and future land
use plans
Presentation of municipal utility service area housing and
employment projections and future land use
assumptions.
Draft service area projections, future land use map (+GIS
file) and technical memo provided to WSACC
Stakeholders via email
Feb-13
Edits to FLU Per
Project team made adjustments to Future Land Use
Stakeholder
assumptions based on stakeholder comments
Comments
20-Feb-13
Updated Materials
Updated service area projections and Future Land Use
Sent to WSACC
map and technical memo sent to WSACC Stakeholders
Stakeholders
28-Mar-13
WSACC Stakeholders
Presentation of updated service area projections,
Meeting
suitability analysis, and draft housing and employment
distributions
28-Mar-13
Data Provided to
Materials presented at the Stakeholders meeting
WSACC Stakeholders
provided via email (Draft parcel level housing and
For Review
employment distributions (pdf and GIS files), presentation
with updated service area projections, pending
developments inventory)
April -May 2013
Edits to Model
Project team made adjustments to model assumptions
Assumptions Per
based on stakeholder comments and internal QC/review
Stakeholder
Comments and Project
Team QC
Lane
WMENGNEERS
GHD I WSACC 2013 Master Plan I Growth Model Documentation] 21

WSACC,
Appendix C -Supporting Maps and Figures
m
an W NISENGiNEERS
GHD WSACC 2013 Master Plan Growth Model Documentations 22

WSACC
Map I Existing Land Use Map
Context
WSACC Study Area
City Limits
Other Municipalities
Counties
Existing Land Use
VACANT
PARKS AND OPEN SPACE
FARM, FORESTRY
SINGLE FAMILY RESIDENTIAL
TOWNHOUSE
MULTI -FAMILY
COMMERCIAL
SERVICE
ENTERTAINMENT
OFFICE. INSTITUTIONAL. GOVERNMENT
LODGING
AIRPORT
INDUSTRIAL
MIXED USE
ROW, UTILITY
MINE
UNKNOWN
WS4:lAndDesign-
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Twova id UUMMENGINEERS
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At
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7.
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ANSON
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EXISTING LAND USE
WSACC MASTER PLAN STUDY AREA
GHD I WSACC 2013 Master Plan I Growth Model Documentation] 23

WSACC
Map 2 Current Water Demand by Basin
WSACC IMMLandDescifp CURRENT WATER DEMAND (2012)
iii�VJNSEWWER'S
wsAcc Fr 2012-7013 Master Plan _
PIMII
Lane ENGDO
S
GHD I WSACC 2013 Master Plan I Growth Model Documentation] 24

WSACC
Map 3 Environmental Constraints Map
WSACC "I"Land
*WWWRISMNEPS
1011��
PMWR Land a ENGINEERS
ROWAN
ENVIRONMENTAL CONSTRAINTS
WSACC MASTER PLAN STUDY AREA
A
q t Y
A N 6 01
GHD I WSACC 2013 Master Plan I Growth Model Documentation] 25

WSACC
Map 4 Land Supply Map
Context
WSACC Study Area ROWAN
! pity Limits
`ids ir; l
Other Municipalities ��� .
Counties
LandSupply }. r
Available
Underutilized `
Fending
Utilized
j !t.
MI ENHURG
WSA 'C
O." W 144 ) l iM 10QV"
itxi $ou ct C.Mpeeux C6�th 19CC'N4:MRP E+r-
md ENGINEERS
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LAND SUPPLY
A wx•asaaw
WSACC MASTER PLAN STUDY AREA
s«•u.« wa.,..a..:A«..«a�a....we,r ama........•a.+ar•n
GHD WSACC 2013 Master Plan I Growth Model Documentation] 26

WSACC
Map 5 Future Land Use Map
iiENEWZZEQ FUTURE LAND USE
is OPEN SPACE
RURAL RESIDENTIAL
VERY LOW DENSITY RESIDENTIAL
LOW DENSITY RESIDENTIAL
MEDIUM -LOW DENSITY RESIDENTIAL
MEDIUM DENSITY RESIDENTIAL
MEDIUM -HIGH DENSITY RESIDENTIAL
HIGH DENSITY RESIDENTIAL
l OFFICE
• # s��`"�`� '^,,.sir,`
•
M
OFFICE AND INDUSTRIAL
I - COMMERCIAL t
INDUSTRIAL
I� INSTITUTIONAL r
- TOWN CENTER MIXED USE
- COMMERCIAL MIXED USE lk
r GENERAL MIXED USE
RESIDENTIAL MIXED USE
ENTERTAINMENT (RACETRACK) }�
C z.
FLU Mask`
COUNTIES r
SCHOOLS
j7{j5i
a I
w,! 1
$AECKL N6URG }' :: •
4
*FLU Mask Future Land Use Mask is a polygon layer that �
C ) p Y9 Y t.�NIC}iv
represents the demarcation between areas where a countyland ;
fuse fan and a munic l I d I `
STAN
veneraazea rurure Lana use Key
p..+au t*....w.a� ww.•.w ..� rw+r`sre�i aa....rras w.r+y OW— a+I— er
�'� .ae xza a n axe a
+ttllpfe 'sYYRa.Orw4a8Ma4ae @a it b9 e P ee 3 3
p spa an use p an was honoured.
A �T� z
�� S [CRAFT GENERALIZED FUTURE LAND USE
-ae.w-x+n sa.
^~ CABARRUS COUNTY. NORTH CAROLINA
'Uxa t'i?$13{4�/erysi3eld yax+s+. *ws.e
'RLA SSw:1l CKaMxe Cgs, yNa#+€A6wt•�.e+ - Mwws.w sa w.wa.�.w +.a.... tarerra v. v
4aar..Hsaa rsa .Mww+AI[a w..naxz aw.i.aw •.eM �
A.M"M.aa we+waaY.. w`W ,rw wY SMSM Mpi.y sV-wa.a
:w saw m.a wWw.a.wavm rM ar�yrmaaas s.+..w+asw9Ja ...... .. w .ar v w. PM - • sw.p � « aasr.nea
Land MENGINIRS
GHD I WSACC 2013 Master Plan I Growth Model Documentation] 27
j

WSACC
Map 6 Single Family Suitability
WSA LandDemo LAND USE SUITABILITY °��;..=,,,,.
"WASMIWERS A
CABARRUS COUNTY, NORTH CAROLING
F t Land MWENGINEERS
GHD I WSACC 2013 Master Plan I Growth Model Documentation] 28

Map 7 Multi -family Suitability
. ...........
MULTI -FAMILY SUITABILITY
0.00 - 50.00
50.01- 60,00
6001-7000
70,01 - 80,00 J,
80.01- 90.00----
N A
�.01 - 100.00
W S A C LaI1dDeq' n
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Land ENGINEERS
ROWAN
1 Y SI A^a. I
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LAND USE SUITABILITY
CABARRUS COUNTY. NORTH CAROLINA
GHD I WSACC 2013 Master Plan I Growth Model Documentation] 29
M
i a+/

Map 8 Commercial/Service Suitability
�T_ _.___.------- ____..___.._e--,_ ..______-. _____.
COMMERCIAL/SER'VIGE SUITABILITY
r 0,00 - 50,00
50.01- 60.00
70,01- 80,00
80,01- 90,00
90.01 - I00.00
{
J1
� 5 f~
WSAracm
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LAND USE SUITABILITY
GABARRUS COUNTY, NORTH CAROLINA
`+t ewes mow.»+w�.w.Pniww W�tiv.y
.wwinwta+�.H..a ..sN'i•+m •. �+�.wn. wro.waR..n
GHD I WSACC 2013 Master Plan I Growth Model Documentation] 30

WS CC
Map 9 Industrial Suitability
INDUSTRIAL SUITABILITY
0.00 - 50,00
50.01 - 60,00 R 6 1 DFLL
M01 - MOO
mol 80.00
80,01 gom
90.01 - iwoo *Moral
'� ..
WSACC, b-7 ""'LandDestign
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LAND USE SUITABILITY
CABARRUS COUNTY, NORTH CAROLINA
GHD I WSACC 2013 Master Plan I Growth Model Documentation] 31

Map 10 Office, Institutional, Government Suitability
. ..... . ..... ... ........ . .
OFFICE, IINST, GOV SUITABILITY
0 00 - 50,00
50-01 - 60.00
60.01 MOO
70,01 WOO
80-01 - 90,00
90.01 - 100.00
WS A f-d-
W4ft96PEERS
rhODW Land 11-0-1ENGINEERS
LAND USE SUITABILITY
CABARRUS COUNTY, NORTH CAROLINA
ROWAN
WSACC
A
GHD I WSACC 2013 Master Plan I Growth Model Documentation] 32

WS CC
Map 11 Lodging Suitability
LODGING SUITABILITY,
om - 50,00
ow
50.01 - MOO ROWAN
60,01 - 70,00
70.01 - 80M
80,01 - soas
90.01 - 100.00
%
dL
if
MECKLEND
dt
is
WSACC P"_ LwxiDesign,
vdftmmms
Land
U N I 011N N S 0 t4
UNfON1 I
LAND USE SUITABILITY
CABARRUS COUNTY, NORTH CAROLINA
GHD I WSACC 2013 Master Plan Growth Model Documentation] 33

WSACC
Nowrvr
Map 12 Future Household and Employment Growth Distribution Map
WSACC L=dDeSlip, HOUSEHOLD AND EMPLOYMENT DISTRIBUTION 2010-2040
WSA C C FY 2012- 2013 Master Plans
nc%
Land NGINEE,,,,
GHD I WSACC 2013 Master Plan I Growth Model Documentationl 34

WSACC
Map 13 Forecasted Water Demand by Basin
WSAQC— Pm"LarxlDes�ip- WATER DEMAND FORECASTS (2040) N
b=dWffUE%IWERS WSACC FY 2012-2013 Master Plan A
1.-? C46-. Cftw* NCCW~ t.
P-ME"I
g; Land PAIIISENGINEERS GHD I WSACC 2013 Master Plan I Growth Model Documentationj 35

WSACC
Map 14 Total Water Demand in 2040 (Current Forecasted)
WSACC 7,-,LandDeS19n- TOTAL WATER DEMAND 2040 (CURRENT + FORECASTED)
&i4WESEWIWERS WSACC FY 2012-2013 Master Plan
t=
F i Land EN
M-5d GINEERS
GHD I WSACC 2013 Master Plan I Growth Model Documentation] 36

WSACC
Figure C-1 Merge Sub -Model Forecasts GP Model
OTLaml vullOrDENGI ERS
IOW GHD I WSACC 2013 Master Plan I Growth Model Documentation] 37

WSACC
Figure C-2Calculate Water and Sewer Demand GP Model
bsLand bV1111S ENGINEERS
imm GHD I WSACC 2013 Master Plan I Growth Model Documentation] 38

WSACC
Appendix D -Supporting Tables
I an UUNIMENGIIt ERS
GHD I WSACC 2013 Master Plan I Growth Model Documentation] 39

WSACC
Table D-1 Generalized Future Land Use Categories
GenFLU
OS
Description
O en S ace
SingleAllows
i
No
•�
No
0
0
0
Single
DU/Acre
0
Multi-
DU/Acre
0
Non-
dential
A
0
RRES
f Rural Residential
Yes
No
95
5
0
0.33
0
0.1
VLDRES
Very Low Density Residential
Yes
No
95
5
0
0.5
0
0.1
LDRES
Low Density Residential
Yes
No
95
5
0
1
0
0.1
MLDRES
Medium -Low Density
Residential
Yes
No
95
5
0
2
0
0.1
MDRES
Medium Densit Residential
Yes
Yes
95
5
0
3
4
0.1
MHDRES
Medium -High Density
Residential
Yes
Yes
95
5
0
4
8
0.1
HDRES
High Density Residential
Yes
Yes
95
5
0
8
15
0.1
OFF
Office
No
No
0
100
0
0
0
0.25
OI
Office and Industrial
No
No
0
50
50
0
0
0.25
COM
Commercial
No
No
0
90
10
0
0
0.25
IND
Industrial
No
No
0
10
90
0
0
0.25
INST
Institutional
No
No
0
100
0
0
0
0.25
TCMU
Town Center Mixed Use
Yes
Yes
30
70
0
8
4
15
0.5
CMU
Commercial Mixed Use
No
Yes
25
50
25
8
0.25
GMU
General Mixed Use
Yes
Yes
50
50
0
4
8
0.5
RMU
Residential Mixed Use
Yes
Yes
70
30
0
4
8
0.5
ENT
* /-% r1 ■ I r
Entertainment Racetrack
No
No
0
70
30
0
0
0.25
UUM rercent win also allow Service, Uttice, Institutional and Lodging
name
,,4LQLawl ENGINEERS
GHD I WSACC 2013 Master Plan I Growth Model Documentations 40

WSACC
Table D-2 Future Land Use Lookup Table
Future Land Use Plan
Cabarrus County Central Area Plan
Local Zoning/FLU
ICommercial
Acres in Local Land Use Plan
175.19
GENFLU
COM
Cabarrus County Central Area Plan
Institutional/Civic
1,003.26
INST
Cabarrus County Central Area Plan
Light Industrial
1,272.10
IND
Cabarrus County Central Area Plan
Low Density Residential
7,875.54
MDRES
Cabarrus County Central Area Plan
Medium Density Residential
249.87
MDRES
Cabarrus County Central Area Plan
Mixed Use
3,054.59
GMU
Cabarrus County Central Area Plan
Open Space/Recreation
297.34
OS
Cabarrus County Central Area Plan
Rural Residential
19,099.65
VLDRES
Cabarrus County Central Area Plan
Very Low Density Residential
5,928.79
MLDRES
Cabarrus County Eastern Area Plan
Commercial
26.33
COM
Cabarrus County Eastern Area Plan
Future Employment
1,335.20
OI
Cabarrus County Eastern Area Plan
Historic Residential
124.67
MDRES
Cabarrus County Eastern Area Plan
Industrial
40.39
IND
Cabarrus County Eastern Area Plan
Institutional
128.11
INST
Cabarrus County Eastern Area Plan
Low Density Residential
7,582.37
LDRES
Cabarrus County Eastern Area Plan
Mixed Residential
166.98
MHDRES
Cabarrus County Eastern Area Plan
Mixed Use District
0.01
GMU
Cabarrus Coq_n!ty Eastern Area Plan
Neighborhood Commercial
22.68
COM
Cabarrus County Eastern Area Plan
Office/ Service
6.74
COM
Cabarrus County Eastern Area Plan
Open Space
51,884.97
RRES
Cabarrus CouMy Eastern Area Plan
Suburban Residential
10,470.07
MLDRES
Cabarrus County Eastern Area Plan
Town Center
26.66
TCMU
Cabarrus County Eastern Area Plan
Village Mixed Use
43.67
GMU
Cabarrus County Midland Area Plan
Agricultural/Open Space
12,231.91
RRES
Cabarrus County Midland Area Plan
Countryside Residential
8,393.00
VLDRES
Cabarrus County Midland Area Plan
Future Employment
1,507.39
OI
Cabarrus County Midland Area Plan
General Industrial
834.16
1,417.30
3,636.81
IND
Cabarrus County Midland Area Plan
Limited Commercial
COM
Cabarrus County Midland Area Plan
Low Density Residential
LDRES
ENGINEER
bow
GHD I WSACC 2013 Master Plan I Growth Model Documentation) 41

WSACC
Land Use Plan
Cabarrus County Midland Area Plan
Zoning/FLUFuture
Local
Medium Density Residential
Plan
4,973.97
GENFLU
MDRES
Cabarrus County Midland Area Plan
Mixed Use
t
2,180.58
GMU
Cabarrus County Western Area Plan
Commercial
1,690.94
COM
Cabarrus County Western Area Plan
Future Employment
6,836.52
OI
Cabarrus County Western Area Plan
High Density Residential
5,855.09
MHDRES
Cabarrus County Western Area Plan
Industrial
4,899.32
IND
Cabarrus County Western Area Plan
Institutional
1,088.88
INST
Cabarrus County Western Area Plan
Low Density Residential
2,792.29
LDRES
Cabarrus County Western Area Plan
Medium Density Residential
9,772.29
MDRES
Cabarrus County Western Area Plan
Recreational
145.20
OS
Cabarrus County Zoning
Agriculture and Open Space
12,844.99
RRES
Cabarrus County Zoning
Countryside Residential
4,102.41
VLDRES
Cabarrus Coupty Zoning
General Industrial
9.87
IND
Cabarrus County Zoning
General Industrial -Special Use
8.04
IND
Cabarrus County Zoning
1-2
1.31
IND
Cabarrus Coupty Zoning
Office/Limited Commercial
126.80
COM
Cabarrus County Zoning
Low Density Residential
878.83
VLDRES
Cabarrus County Zoning
Low Density Residential -Special Use
0.99
VLDRES
Cabarrus County Zoning
Limited Industrial
34.42
IND
Cabarrus County Zoning
Medium Density Residential
101.64
MDRES
Cabarrus County Zoning
Office/Institutional
130.16
INST
Cabarrus County Zoning_Planned
Unit Development
1.79
LDRES
Cabarrus County Zoning
RE
16.08
VLDRES
Concord Center City CC LU Plan
Commercial
519.35
COM
Concord Center City CC LU Plan
Government
34.72
INST
Concord Center City CC LU Plan
Industrial
485.26
IND
Concord Center City CC LU Plan
Institutional
437.19
INST
Concord Center City CC LU Plan
Mixed Use
202.10
TCMU
Concord Center City CC LU Plan
Multi Family
270.98
HDRES
Concord Center City CC LU Plan
Office
87.32
OFF
Concord Center City CC LU Plan
Open Space
449.60
OS
Lana VVINIS EGINEERS
GHD I WSACC 2013 Master Plan I Growth Model Documentation) 42

WSACC
Future •Use Plan
LocalZoning/FLU
Acres inLocal•
Concord Center City CC LU Plan
Single Family
2,929.78
MDRES
Concord LU Plan
Commercial
2,003.97
COM
Concord LU Plan
Industrial
6,783.35
IND
Concord LU Plan
Institutional
802.14
INST
Concord LU Plan
Mixed Use Node
4,966.79
GMU
Concord LU Plan
Mixed Use Node - Small Area Plan
0.02
GMU
Concord LU Plan
Motorsports Related
976.75
ENT
Concord LU Plan
Multi -Family
265.61
HDRES
Concord LU Plan
Office
494.68
OFF
Concord LU Plan
Open Space
2,380.26
OS
Concord LU Plan
Open Space Preservation
19,516.24
LDRES
Concord LU Plan
Public
504.46
INST
Concord LU Plan
Single Family Residential
18,127.88
MDRES
Concord LU Plan
Single Family Residential - Open Space
Enc.
13,334.22
LDRES
Concord LU Plan
Villa e Center
3,450.75
RM U
Harrisburg LU Plan
Civic/Institutional
227.13
INST
Harrisburg LU Plan
Commercial
85.96
COM
Harrisburg LU Plan
Li ht Industrial
1,877.80
IND
Harrisburg LU Plan
Low -Density Residential
3,933.78
MLDRES
Harrisburg LU Plan
Medium -Density Residential
1,196.49
MDRES
Harrisburg LU Plan
Mixed Use
219.30
RMU
Harrisburg LU Plan
Mixed Use - LI/C
626.77
CMU
Harrisburg LU Plan
Mixed Use - Town Center
530.90
TCMU
Harrisburg LU Plan
Parks and Recreation
85.83
OS
Harrisburg LU Plan
Very Low -Density Residential
8,150.27
VLDRES &
LDRESMDRES
Kanna olis LU Plan
Undetermined
262.21
Kanna olis LU Plan
Campus Development/Corporate Park
1,897.51
CMU
Kanna olis LU Plan
Central Business District
312.99
TCMU
Kanna olis LU Plan
Heavy Commercial
1,538.45
COM
Kanna olis LU Plan
Heavy Industrial
24.00
IND
Kanna olis LU Plan
High Density Residential 8 units per acre
2,376.18
HDRES
Laid ENGINEERS
GHD I WSACC 2013 Master Plan I Growth Model Documentation] 43

WSACC
Ma
Future Land Use Plan
Local Zoning/FLU
Acres in Local Land Use Plan
GENFLU
Kanna olis LU Plan I
Li ht Commercial 1
305.35
COM
Kanna olis LU Plan
Light Industrial
305.78
IND
Kanna olis LU Plan
Mixed Use
1,577.01
GMU
Kanna olis LU Plan
Multi -Family Residential
460.94
MHDRES
Kanna olis LU Plan
Neighborhood Business
216.57
COM
Kanna olis LU Plan
Office -Institutional
1,015.87
CMU
Kanna olis LU Plan
Residential Mill Village
381.86
RMU
Kanna olis LU Plan
Single-family Residential 1 unit per acre
1,190.47
LDRES
Kannapolis LU Plan
Single-family Residential (1 units per 2
acres
9,561.04
VLDRES
Kanna olis LU Plan
Single-family Residential 1-3 units per acre
4,255.34
LDRES & MDRES
Kanna olis LU Plan
Single-family Residential 2 units per acre
3,688.49
MLDRES
Kanna olis LU Plan
Single-family Residential 3 units per acre
4,649.68
MDRES
Kanna olis LU Plan
Single-family Residential 4 units per acre
7,576.15
MDRES
Mount Pleasant FLU Plan
Adams Creek Basin
2,063
LDRES
Mount Pleasant FLU Plan
A riculture
4,701
VLDRES
Mount Pleasant FLU Plan
Buffalo Creek Preserve
376
OS
Mount Pleasant FLU Plan
Commercial
104
COM
Mount Pleasant FLU Plan
Community Service
38
INST
Mount Pleasant FLU Plan
Eastern Growth Area
1,402
MDRES
Mount Pleasant FLU Plan
Mixed Use Employment Center
272
CMU
Mount Pleasant FLU Plan
Rural Transition
1,904
LDRES
Mount Pleasant FLU Plan
Town Center
46
GMU
Mount Pleasant FLU Plan
Town Residential
960
MHDRES
Mount Pleasant FLU Plan
Western Growth Area
2,256
MDRES
Midland FLU Plan
ROW
79
ROW
Midland FLU Plan
Agriculture
31,983
RRES
Midland FLU Plan
Civic
389
INST
Midland FLU Plan
Commercial
1,207
COM
Midland FLU Plan
Industrial
2,069
ENT
Midland FLU Plan
Neighborhood
7,302
MDRES
Midland FLU Plan
Parks
502
OS
=Land 9WHISEN'GINEERS
GHD I WSACC 2013 Master Plan I Growth Model Documentations 44

WSACC
I,--,' �C. )_
Table D-3 Residential Build Out Analysis
Service Area
Concord
Acres
125,310
Residential
Acres
18,223
Res/Non-Res
Residential
72%
Split
Non -
Residential
% Acres
7,086
Residential
28%
Single Family
% Capacity
21,866
Dwelling
Demand*
12,499
Units
Net
9,367
Multi -Family
Capacity
15,070
Dwelling
Demand*
3,592
Units
Net
11,478
Harrisburq
7,373
5,666
77%
1,708
23%
6,256
5,168
1,088
2,270
455
1,815
Kanna olis
18,742
15,358
82%
3,384
18%
16,382
6,041
10,341
19,901
171
19,730
Locust
71
51
72%
20
28%
20
-
20
34
-
34
Midland
20,034
16,445
82%
3,589
18%
14,501
3,391
11,110
7,242
518
6,724
Mt Pleasant
16,109
15,182
94%
927
6%
14,711
1,165
13,546
3,157
-
3,157
Northeast
1113,466
25,828
23,566
91 %
12,261
9%
7,715
668
7,047
-
-
-
Totals
94,491
83%
18,975
17%
181,451
28,889
52,562
47,674
4,763
42,938
Table D-4 Non -Residential Build Out Analysis
Service
Area
Concord
Residential
Acres
7,086
IndustrialNon-
Capacity
145,096
..yment
Demand Net
3,848 141,248
Commercial Employment.
Capacity Demand Net
67,914 3,446 64,468
Office, Institutional,
..
Capacity Demand Net
113,735 1 12,605 101,130
Lodging
Capacity
17,496
Employment
Demand
555
Net
16,941
Service Employment
Capacity Demand
21,003 3,426
Net
17,577
Harrisburg
1,708
40,126
505
39,621
13,623
433
13,190
14,842
2,613 12,229
2,616
62
2,554
3.175
449
2,726
Kannapolis
3,384
12,875
1,200
11,675
58,880
914
57,966
67,052
4,541 62,511
15,084
98
14,986
18,109
504
17,605
Locust
20
190
72
118
384
125
259
216
- 216
66
19
47
79
100
(21)
Midland
3,589
44,828
1,010
43,818
33,371
596
32,778
91,825
1,220 90,605
10,633
31
10,602
12,754
181
12,573
Mt
Pleasant
927
838
184
654
4,585
331
4,254
3,365
1,149 2,216
1,295
27
1,268
1,577
146
1,431
Northeast
2,261
22,194
111
22,083
5,819
5
5,814
50,958
117 50,841
2,795
-
2,795
3,396
0
3,396
Totals
18,975
266,147
6,930
259,217
184,576
5,847
178,729
341,996
22,246 319,747
49,985
793
49,192
60,093
4,806
55,287
'Capacity based on the following EMP/SQFT Rates: IND (1/1000), COM (1/600), OIGOV (1/350), LODGE (1/1200), SERV (1/250)
Laid ENGIIVERS
GHD I WSACC 2013 Master Plan I Growth Model Documentation] 45