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HomeMy WebLinkAbout19980260 All Versions_Complete File_19970101Michael F. Easley, Governor W A' William G. Ross Jr., Secretary ?OC? OG North Carolina Department of Environment and Natural Resources CO Alan W. Klimek, P.E. Director Division of Water Quality O 'c August 31, 2006 Missy Dickens, PE Planning and Environmental Branch North Carolina Department of Transportation 1548 Mail Service Center Raleigh, North Carolina, 27699-1548 Subject: Review of ICI Downstream Water Quality Modeling for Winston-Salem Northern Beltway (Western Section, Easter Section, and Eastern Section Extension, TIP Projects R-2247, U-2579, and U-25 79A, respectively), Forsyth County Per your memo dated May 3, 2006 the Division of Water Quality has reviewed the DRAFT Pollutant Loading Estimates for Waterbodies Potentially Impacted by the Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Extension dated July 2005. We have the following comments: Model Selection: The two models, GWLF and AnnAGNPS, are appropriate for this study. Both models are capable of predicting the impact of land management practices on water and pollutant loads with varying soils, land uses, and management conditions. The models' performance and limitations are well documented in this report. Model Calibration: Significance of model calibration is evaluated by correlating the monthly total pollutant loads estimated by the models with the loads estimated by the regression equation. This is widely used calibration procedure for the watershed where data are limited. Watershed Parameter Estimation: Parameter values adjusted for the model calibration and projection are not clearly explained in the report. Sensitivity of following watershed parameters under the two scenarios should be incorporated in the report: Flow adjustment factors: Curve number, Manning's roughness coefficient, and saturated hydraulic conductivity. Sediment adjustment factors: Crop management factor, crop residual factor, channel erodible factor, and channel cover factor. Nutrient adjustment factors: Initial nutrient condition in soils and ground water, in-stream nutrient process, fertilizer application rate, nutrient percolation coefficient, and algal biomass coefficient. Others: In table 4-12 (page), the estimation of annual average for simulated sediment load should be 10,241 tons instead of 15,052 tons. NOne Caro 'na Q?llCII? Transportation Permitting Unit 1650 Mail Service Center, Raleigh, North Carolina 27699-1650 2321 Crabtree Boulevard, Suite 250, Raleigh, North Carolina 27604 Phone: 919-733-1786 / FAX 919-733-6693 / Internet: htto://h2o.enr.state.nc.us/ncwetlands An Equal Opportunity/Affirmative Action Employer - 50% Recycledl10% Post Consumer Paper The NCDWQ appreciates the opportunity to provide comments on your project. Should you have any questions or require any additional information, please contact Sue Homewood at 336-771-4964. Sincerely;) i John Hennessy, Supervi Transportation Permitting Unit cc: DWQ Transportation Permitting Unit Sue Homewood, DWQ WSRO Michelle Woolfolk, DWQ Planning Branch, Modeling and TMDL Unit Narayan Rajbhandari, DWQ Planning Branch, Modeling and TMDL Unit WETLANDS 1401 GROUP Ah.30M4 •v ?• WATER QUALITY SECTION STATE OF NORTH CAROLINA DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION MICHAEL F. EASLEY LYNDO TIPPETT GOVERNOR SECRETARY July 27, 2004 To: John Dorney, NC MR Division of Water Quality From: Missy Dickey E, NCDOT Project Development & Environmental Analysis Branch Subject: Proposed'Study Area for Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Project: Pollutant Load Estimates to Potentially Impacted Waterbodies CC: Raed el-Farhan, PhD, The Louis Berger Group, Inc. J. Scott Lane, AICP, The Louis Berger Group, Inc. LeiLani Paugh, NCDOT Natural Environment Indirect & Cumulative Impact Unit This memo details the study area proposed to examine the indirect and cumulative impacts of pollutant loading to waterbodies within the Winston-Salem Northern Beltway project area. The proposed Winston-Salem Northern Beltway is located within Forsyth County, North Carolina and surrounds the city of Winston-Salem. The proposed project encompasses waterbodies that have been identified as impaired on North Carolina's Section 303(d) list; therefore, a quantitative analysis of pollutant loadings to waterbodies potentially affected by the project is required. The waterbodies identified as potentially impacted by this project are presented in Figure 1, and are described below. The majority of the streams draining the area of the proposed beltway are located within the Yadkin River Basin. A small section in the northern area of the proposed beltway is located on the ridgeline between the Yadkin and Roanoke River Basins; however, the majority of pollutants potentially generated by the project would flow south into the Yadkin River Basin, and would be unlikely to significantly impact streams flowing north into the Roanoke River Basin. The areas of concern for possible impacts from the proposed beltway project are located within the Yadkin River Basin. Specific streams of concern include Muddy Creek, Salem Creek, Silas Creek, Mill Creek, Little Creek, Kerner's Mill Creek, and the South Fork Muddy Creek. Salem Creek was included on the 2002 North Carolina Section 303(d) list for turbidity and biological impairment. Additionally, Salem Creek, Muddy Creek, and Little Creek are included on North Carolina's draft 2004 Section 303(d) list. The Yadkin River Basin water quality plan also identifies several waters of concern that may potentially be impacted by construction of the Winston-Salem Northern Beltway. These include Mill Creek, Silas Creek, Kerner's Mill Creek, and the South Fork Muddy Creek. Developing pollutant estimates for these waterbodies should accurately quantify the potential impacts of the Winston-Salem Northern Beltway on streams. Requested Action: Please verify in writing to me that this study area meets with your approval. If you have any questions concerning this matter, please do not hesitate to contact me at your convenience (919.733.7844x218). MAILING ADDRESS: TELEPHONE: 919-733-3141 LOCATION: NC DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION FAX: 919-733-9794 TRANSPORTATION BUILDING PROJECT DEVELOPMENT AND ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 1 SOUTH WILMINGTON STREET 1548 MAIL SERVICE CENTER WEBSITE: www.NCDOT.ORG RALEIGH NC RALEIGH NC 27899-1548 Figure 1: Proposed Study Area for Waterbodies Impacted by the Winston-Salem Beltway Project N W E j Muddv Creek Mill Creek r Silas Creek Kemers Mill Creek Little Creek Salem Creek South Fork Muddy Creek Winston-Salem Beltway Proposed Study Area Streams Projection: North Carolina Streams State Plane 1983 Proposed Study Area Delineation o 8 Miles Forsyth County Boundary MENOMMM 2 J00-D ST4??, UNITED STATES ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY y REGION 4 33 $ Q ATLANTA FEDERAL CENTER r 61 FORSYTH STREET ?i qC PROIS6, ATLANTA, GEORGIA 30303-8960 March 22, 2007 Gregory J. Thorpe, Ph.D. Environmental Management Director Project Development and Environmental Analysis Branch North Carolina Department of Transportation 1548 Mail Service Center Raleigh, North Carolina 27699-1548 ,t SUBJECT: Winston-Salem Northern Beltway (FHW-E40325-NC): Supplemental Final EIS Western Section TIP No. R-2247 (CEQ No. 20040058), and Final EIS Eastern Section TIP Nos. U-2579 and U-2579A (CEQ No. 20040057) Dear Dr. Thorpe: In accordance with Section 102(2)(C) of the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) and Section 309 of the Clean Air Act, EPA is providing comments on the subject document which serves as a Supplemental Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Western Section (R-2247), and a Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Eastern Section (U-2579 and U-2579A) of the Northern Beltway, collectively referred to herein as the FEIS. EPA appreciates the cumulative assessment of the entire Northern Beltway by the North Carolina Department of Transportation (NCDOT) and the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA). The total length of the project would be approximately 34 miles on new alignment. EPA commented on the previous Supplemental EIS issued for review in October 2004, and is responding to those stated concerns. Additionally, EPA is commenting further about impacts to migratory birds and impacts of invasive exotic plant species. We are also commenting on the classification of `Prime Farmland' and the discussion of impacts which should be clarified. The benefits of having the FEIS cover the entire Northern Beltway are overshadowed by confusing data quantification and presentation which have not been corrected from the 2004 DEIS; and incomplete documentation of the proposed mitigation for identified unavoidable impacts. The FEIS lacks specific information regarding mitigation for impacts to 7-8 linear miles of surface streams. It is important for a FEIS to disclose fully the proposed mitigation so that interested citizens and local officials can be provided with a comprehensive plan for addressing this large amount of compensatory action. Erosion and sedimentation will also be a major, ongoing adverse impact. The project would benefit from close oversight by state and local environmental officials regarding the avoidance and minimization of impacts to surface streams. NCDOT should strive to avoid concurrent project clearing and grading with that for private development Internet Address (URL) • http://www.epa.gov Recycled/Recyclable • Printed with Vegetable Oil Based Inks on Recycled Paper (Minimum 30% Postconsumer) -2- in order to lessen excessive storm water runoff to small streams. EPA is hopeful that Forsyth County's widened streamside buffer ordinance recently enacted for Abbotts Creek, a 303(d) listed stream, will be followed and that this ordinance would be applied to other watersheds to lessen the direct and indirect impacts of this project. Clearing operations, which will remove 936 acres of terrestrial forest, will have significant adverse impacts to wildlife. NCDOT should follow the federal requirements for minimizing adverse impacts to migratory birds by minimizing/avoiding clearing activities during nesting season. Conversely, the large amount of clearing and earth moving unfortunately will benefit opportunistic invasive exotic plants. EPA recommends that NCDOT follow Federal Executive Order 13112 and take proactive measures for the detection, and prevention of spreading invasive species. Of particular note, is the documentation of the highly invasive Japanese knotweed within the project area. EPA is recommending that all of the environmental commitments listed in the "Green Sheets," and each of the concerns noted in our comments be addressed in the Record of Decision. There should be substantive commitments for follow-through to achieve maximum avoidance, minimization, and where necessary resource compensation. Please see the enclosed detailed comments. Overall, although some of our DEIS comments have been addressed, we continue to have concerns about the points described above. Thank you for the opportunity to comment on the FEIS. Please direct inquiries to Mr. Ted Bisterfeld (tel. 404/562-9621) who is the Region's primary contact for this project review. S' cerely, III) (___ Heinz J. Mueller Chief, NEPA Program Office Enclosures: Detailed EPA Comments cc: Federal Highway Administration, NC Division US Fish and Wildlife Service, Raleigh Field Office US Army Corps of Engineers, Wilmington District ENCLOSURE Detailed EPA comments on the Winston-Salem Northern Beltway FEIS Air Quality: The area is in a designated Early Action Compact per the Conformity Rule. This EAC will expire in December 2007. EPA recommends that the ROD include a final verification of the project's inclusion in a conforming Long Range Transportation Plan (LRTP) and identify mitigation for project construction and operation.. Air Quality: The NCDOT response to EPA's comment recommending further consideration of HOV lanes indicates that the LRTP does not recommend HOV lanes for this project. That plan states that HOV lanes may be applicable if air quality problems worsen. The area continues to have poor air quality so it is unclear why HOV would not be implemented in order to reduce vehicle usage but maintain future mobility. Also, it is noted that planning is continuing for improvements to US 52 (U-2826B) through the city including addition of two lanes. The air quality benefits and the adverse impacts to the community should be fully considered in decisions for that project. Widening US 52 to 8 lanes was rejected by NCDOT as alternative to the Northern Beltway. Air Quality: Page 1-35. Traffic modeling was done with US 52 at 8-lanes as it is defined in the LRTP. This is inconsistent with the response to EPA's comment where NCDOT indicated that such widening through the center of the city would result in substantial environmental justice impacts. Assuming the Northern Beltway is built, EPA recommends careful review of subsequent traffic analyses and modeling to ensure that US 52 requires widening. Aquatic Habitat: EPA notes the NCDOT efforts to re-survey (via aerial photography and mapping) to document conditions, relative to residential development, stream encroachment, etc., within the area have not changed since earlier EIS documentation. NCDOT indicates that it was unimportant for decision-making to document the condition of natural resources. EPA differs with this view because it is necessary to define the status of resources, particularly aquatic habitat, in order to determine the necessary/appropri ate mitigation for the project. Water Quality: EPA notes the response to comment A24-12. Although the NCDOT and FHWA lack unilateral authority to address degraded water quality, EPA notes that transportation planning involves local agencies not just NCDOT. It is therefore incumbent on all parties to cooperate to address degraded surface waters, since the NCDOT project contributes to the indirect adverse effects to streams. Compensatory Mitigation: EPA notes the response to comments at page 4-218 and Page 6-68. NCDOT and FHWA identify the Friedberg Site as the location where the wetland Enclosure -2- impacts from the R-2247 project are to be mitigated. The FEIS does not describe what compensatory mitigation is available for the wetland impacts from the U-2579/U-2579A project segments. Page 4-218 also describes approximately 9,000 total linear feet of stream mitigation provided at the WRP Stone Mountain Park Site in Wilkes County. The total stream impacts after avoidance and minimization efforts by the Merger team for the project are 36,445 linear feet. NCDOT and FHWA have not proposed any specific on- site stream restoration or mitigation efforts. There are still 27,445 linear feet of stream impact that will require compensatory mitigation. FHWA and NCDOT should have provided additional detail on the status of obtaining compensatory mitigation for stream and wetland impacts. The statement in the FEIS regarding a "full analysis of the impacts and the existing mitigation will be included in the 404/401 permitting process" is not potentially consistent with the Section 404/NEPA Merger 01 Memorandum of Understanding (MOU). Additional details regarding potential on-site mitigation opportunities as well as off-site compensatory mitigation through the Ecosystem Enhancement Program (EEP) should be available at this stage of the Section 404/NEPA process. The fact that the EEP is not referenced or mentioned in Sections 4.17.2, 4.17.3 and 4.17.4 of the FEIS and the need for potentially 27,445 linear feet of stream mitigation is a significant omission. EPA is not confident that compensation is near to being resolved. FHWA and NCDOT should provide this information during concurrence point 4B meetings and prior to the issuance of the ROD. Federal Species of Concern/State Listed Species, Pages 3-104 & 105: EPA acknowledges the North Carolina legal protection afforded to Federal and State endangered, threatened and species of concern. It may be important to note that while the Loggerhead Shrike (Lanius ludovicianus ludovicians) is a State-listed species of Special Concern, it is also afforded potential protection under the Migratory Bird Treaty Act of 1918, as amended by the Migratory Bird Treaty Reform Act of 2004. Invasive Exotic Plant Species, Pages 3-83 to 3-92 and Pages 4-198 to 4-204: The FEIS lists a number of invasive exotic plant species present within the project study corridor under the descriptions of certain terrestrial biotic communities, including Chinese privet (Ligustrum sinense), Japanese honeysuckle (Lonicera japonica) and others. However, the FEIS fails to include other significant, highly invasive exotic plant species, including Japanese knotweed (Reynoutria japonica { Weakley, 2006 }; Fallopia japonica or Polygonum cuspidatum), Tree of Heaven (Ailanthus altissima), Mimosa or Silktree (Albizia julibrissin) and Kudzu (Pueraria montana). While all of these highly invasive species are present in the project study corridor and can impact terrestrial communities, EPA has environmental concerns particularly for Japanese knotweed as it can thrive in both terrestrial and riparian habitats. Colonies of Japanese knotweed can Enclosure -3- already be found along the I-40 and 1-40 Business highway corridors, including one colony in the preferred alternative project area west of Kemersville and east of Salem Lake (a water supply). The proposed project is 34.2 miles in length, has approximately 936 acres of terrestrial forest impacts (1.46 square miles) and 53,352 linear feet of stream impact (non-mitigatable and mitigatable). The potential to substantially spread Japanese knotweed into riparian areas is a significant direct impact that was not addressed in the FEIS and could have long-term and indirect impacts to water quality within the project study area. Although invasive exotic plant species are referenced in the FEIS, FHWA and NCDOT did not address the requirements of E.O. 13112. The E.O. requires the Lead Federal Agency to prevent the introduction of invasive species, detect and respond rapidly to and control populations of such species in a cost-effective and environmentally sound manner, monitor invasive species populations accurately and reliably and provide restoration of native species and habitat conditions in ecosystems that have been invaded. Japanese knotweed in many areas of the U.S., including North Carolina, is spreading exponentially through human activities such as mowing near riparian areas, placement of fill dirt or quarry stone with rhizomes, etc. EPA and other resource agencies believe that there is credible scientific evidence that Japanese knotweed can adversely impact native wildlife habitat (Blossey, Nuzzo and Maerz, 2006). There is also empirical evidence that colonies of Japanese knotweed can increase winter time bank erosion rates and cause long-term degradation to water quality. The potential costs to completely eradicate Japanese knotweed once it has become established can be very substantial ($1,200 to $10,000 per acre). Considering the location of at least one existing colony of Japanese knotweed near designated water supply and critical water supply areas, the problem of managing and controlling knotweed in these areas is extremely difficult. EPA believes that FHWA and NCDOT should fully examine the issue and compliance with the E.O. in the Record of Decision (ROD) and develop an avoidance, minimization and mitigation strategy with input from the resource agencies for invasive exotic plant species with an emphasis on preventing the uncontrolled spread of Japanese knotweed. Prime Farmland, Pages 3-71 to 3-72 and Pages 4-146-to 4-152: On page 4-149 of the SFEIS/FEIS, it is stated that a small amount of land crossed by the Preferred Western Alternative (R-2247) is currently zoned agriculture. It is also stated that the Preferred Alternative skirts the Rural Area designation north of Yadkinville Road based upon the Growth Management Plan (Figure 3-2). The SFEIS/FEIS did not provide the actual impact to either the agriculturally zoned area or the Rural Area designation based upon the footprint of the Preferred Alternative. This information should be quantified in the ROD. EPA also notes on page 4-149 that the statement "no mitigation for farmland loss is required for the project" (in accordance with the Farmland Protection Policy Act - FPPA). The FPPA and regulations contained at Title 7 of the Code of Federal Regulations, Part 658, require that "Federal agencies consider alternative actions, as appropriate, that could lessen adverse effects". In NEPA nomenclature, this is essentially Enclosure -4- avoidance and minimization and not `formal' mitigation in the context of `creating' or `restoring' prime farmland. The issue of "mitigation" for farmland loss is repeated on page 4-151 for U-2579 and on page 4-152 for U-2579A. There appears to be substantial confusion by certain parties on the requirements of the FPPA. EPA highlights this issue because the information in the SFEIS/FEIS is quite confusing. EPA notes that Tables 4- 47, 4-48, and 4-49 in the SFEIS/FEIS impacts are for Prime and State/Locally Important Farmland soils, and that none of the preferred alternatives impact Prime or State/Locally Important Farmlands under the NRCS Land Assessment and Site Assessment (LESA) criteria (Reference: 7 CFR Section 658.4(c)(2). Sites receiving a total score of less than 160 need not be given further consideration for protection and no additional sites need to be evaluated). EPA notes that page 3-72 identifies that there are 62,005 acres of prime farmland soils and 72,285 acres of state and locally important farmland soils in all of Forsyth County. Based upon Figure 3-6, it appears that approximately 17 farms are identified as participating in the Farmland Preservation Program in Forsyth County and that they represent only a few thousand acres. None of these designated farms are impacted from the proposed project. This issue could have been more clearly highlighted in Section 4.12.8 along with the statement that none of the preferred alternatives for R- 2247, U-2579 or U-2579A impact parcels participating in the Farmland Preservation Program and that a majority of actual agricultural areas where the soils are identified as being prime or state/locally important farmland otherwise meet the specific NRCS criteria for protection under FPPA. The Table 4-47 impact figures do not match up to the text description of impacts on pages 4-148 and 4-149. What is even more confusing to EPA is the information contained in Table 4-88 for Combined Direct Environmental Consequences on pages 4-258 and 4-259 that lists 1,380 acres of Prime, Statewide and Local Important Farmland (not soils) for the preferred alternatives for R-2247, U-2579 and U-2579A. If one adds the `text' information on pages 4-148 and 4-151 the Table 4-49 information, the `prime farmland impact' is 1,379.6 acres, but the actual impact is to prime farmland soils, and not the regulatory definition of a prime farmland. This is further complicated by the format of Table 4-88 that lists 369 acres of agriculture and 1,160 acres of maintained/disturbed land just above the environmental issue of Acres of . Prime, Statewide and Local Important Farmland. The entire sections on `prime farmland' need to be clarified and simplified in the ROD. The actual impact to prime, unique and statewide and locally important farmland appears to be 0 acres based upon coordination and consultation with NRCS. F W A T? Michael F. Easley, Governor Q? ,,.•.. q William G. Ross Jr., Secretary 1QCR\ °° QG North Carolina Department of Environment and Natural Resources Uj 7 Alan W. Klimek, P.E. Director > Division of Water Quality March 23, 2007 MEMORANDUM To: Melba McGee r Through: John Henness From: Sue Homewood, Division of Water Quality, Winston-Salem Regional Office Subject: Comments on the Final Environmental Impact Statement related to proposed Winston- Salem Northern Beltway from existing US 52 south to Existing I-40 Business and I-40 Business south to US 311 and Supplemental Final Impact Statement related to proposed Winston-Salem Northern Beltway from existing US 158 north to US 52, Forsyth County, Federal Aid Project No. NHF-0918(14) and not applicable, State Project No. 8.2625101 and 6.628001T, TIP U-2579/U-2579A and R-2247. DENR Project Number 07-0269 This office has reviewed the referenced document dated January 2007. The Division of Water Quality (DWQ) is responsible for the issuance of the Section 401 Water Quality Certification for activities that impact Waters of the U.S., including wetlands. It is our understanding that the project as presented will result in impacts to jurisdictional wetlands, streams, and other surface waters. The DWQ offers the following comments based on review of the aforementioned document: Project Specific Comments: The remainder of these projects is being planned as part of the 404/NEPA Merger Process. As a participating team member, the NCDWQ will continue to work with the team. 2. As previous communications have indicated, DOT is reminded that a quantitative Indirect and Cumulative Impacts analysis is required for approval of the 401 Water Quality Certification. 3. Some streams within this project study area are identified as 303(d) waters of the State for impaired use for aquatic life due to urban runoff and agriculture. DWQ is very concerned with sediment and erosion impacts that could result from this project. DWQ recommends that the most protective sediment and erosion control BMPs be implemented to reduce the risk of nutrient runoff to these streams. DWQ requests that road design plans provide treatment of the storm water runoff through best management practices as detailed in the most recent version of NC DWQ Stormwater Best Management Practices. One N Carolina Transportation Permitting Unit Naturally 1650 Mail Service Center, Raleigh, North Carolina 27699-1650 2321 Crabtree Boulevard, Suite 250, Raleigh, North Carolina 27604 Phone: 919-733-1786 / FAX 919-733-6893 / Internet: http://h2o.enr.state.nc.us/ncwetlands An Equal Opportunity/Affirmative Action Employer - 50% Recycled/10% Post Consumer Paper General Comments: 4. The environmental permitting documents should provide a detailed and itemized presentation of the proposed impacts to wetlands and streams with corresponding mapping. If mitigation is necessary as required by 15A NCAC 21-1.0506(h), it is preferable to present a conceptual (if not finalized) mitigation plan with the environmental documentation. Appropriate mitigation plans will be required prior to issuance of a 401 Water Quality Certification. After the selection of the preferred alternative and prior to an issuance of the 401 Water Quality Certification, the NCDOT is respectfully reminded that they will need to demonstrate the avoidance and minimization of impacts to wetlands (and streams) to the maximum extent practical. In accordance with the Environmental Management Commission's Rules (15A NCAC 2H.0506(h)), mitigation will be required for impacts of greater than 1 acre to wetlands. In the event that mitigation is required, the mitigation plan should be designed to replace appropriate lost functions and values. The NC Ecosystem Enhancement Program may be available for use as wetland mitigation. 6. In accordance with the Environmental Management Commission's Rules 115A NCAC 2H.0506(h)l, mitigation will be required for impacts of greater than 150 linear feet to any single perennial stream. In the event that mitigation is required, the mitigation plan should be designed to replace appropriate lost functions and values. The NC Ecosystem Enhancement Program may be available for use as stream mitigation. Future documentation, including the 401 Water Quality Certification Application, should continue to include an itemized listing of the proposed wetland and stream impacts with corresponding mapping. 8. A quantitative analysis of cumulative and secondary impacts anticipated as a result of this project is required. 9. NC DOT is respectfully reminded that all impacts, including but not limited to, bridging, fill, excavation and clearing, to jurisdictional wetlands, streams, and riparian buffers need to be included in the final impact calculations. These impacts, in addition to any construction impacts, temporary or otherwise, also need to be included as part of the 401 Water Quality Certification Application. 10. Sediment and erosion control measures should not be placed in wetlands or streams. 11. Borrow/waste areas should avoid wetlands to the maximum extent practical. Impacts to wetlands in borrow/waste areas will need to be presented in the 401 Water Quality Certification and could precipitate compensatory mitigation. 12. The 401 Water Quality Certification application will need to specifically address the proposed methods for stormwater management. More specifically, stormwater should not be permitted to discharge directly into streams or surface waters. 13. Based on the information presented in the document, the magnitude of impacts to wetlands and streams may require an Individual Permit JP) application to the Corps of Engineers and corresponding 401 Water Quality Certification. Please be advised that a 401 Water Quality Certification requires satisfactory protection of water quality to ensure that water quality standards are met and no wetland or stream uses are lost. Final permit authorization will require the submittal of a formal application by the NCDOT and written concurrence from the NCDWQ. Please be aware that any approval will be contingent on appropriate avoidance and minimization of wetland and stream impacts to the maximum extent practical, the development of an acceptable stormwater management plan, and the inclusion of appropriate mitigation plans where appropriate. 14. Bridge supports (bents) should not be placed in the stream when possible. 15. Whenever possible, the DWQ prefers spanning structures. Spanning structures usually do not require work within the stream or grubbing of the streambanks and do not require stream channel realignment. The horizontal and vertical clearances provided by bridges allow for human and wildlife passage beneath the structure, do not block fish passage and do not block navigation by canoeists and boaters. 16. Bridge deck drains should not discharge directly into the stream. Stormwater should be directed across the bridge and pre-treated through site-appropriate means (grassed swales, pre-formed scour holes, vegetated buffers, etc.) before entering the stream. Please refer to the most current version of NC DWQ Stormwater Best Management Practices. 17. If concrete is used during construction, a dry work area should be maintained to prevent direct contact between curing concrete and stream water. Water that inadvertently contacts uncured concrete should not be discharged to surface waters due to the potential for elevated pH and possible aquatic life and fish kills. 18. If temporary access roads or detours are constructed, the site shall be graded to its preconstruction contours and elevations. Disturbed areas should be seeded or mulched to stabilize the soil and appropriate native woody species should be planted. When using temporary structures the area should be cleared but not grubbed. Clearing the area with chain saws, mowers, bush-hogs, or other mechanized equipment and leaving the stumps and root mat intact allows the area to re-vegetate naturally and minimizes soil disturbance. 19. Placement of culverts and other structures in waters, streams, and wetlands shall be placed below the elevation of the streambed by one foot for all culverts with a diameter greater than 48 inches, and 20 percent of the culvert diameter for culverts having a diameter less than 48 inches, to allow low flow passage of water and aquatic life. Design and placement of culverts and other structures including temporary erosion control measures shall not be conducted in a manner that may result in dis-equilibrium of wetlands or streambeds or banks, adjacent to or upstream and down stream of the above structures. The applicant is required to provide evidence that the equilibrium is being maintained if requested in writing by DWQ. If this condition is unable to be met due to bedrock or other limiting features encountered during construction, please contact the NC DWQ for guidance on how to proceed and to determine whether or not a permit modification will be required. 20. If multiple pipes or barrels are required, they should be designed to mimic natural stream cross section as closely as possible including pipes or barrels at flood plain elevation and/or sills where appropriate. Widening the stream channel should be avoided. Stream channel widening at the inlet or outlet end of structures typically decreases water velocity causing sediment deposition that requires increased maintenance and disrupts aquatic life passage. i 21. If foundation test borings are necessary; it should be noted in the document. Geotechnical work is approved under General 401 Certification Number 3494/Nationwide Permit No. 6 for Survey Activities. 22. Sediment and erosion control measures sufficient to protect water resources must be implemented and maintained in accordance with the most recent version of North Carolina Sediment and Erosion Control Planning and Design Manual and the most recent version of NCS000250. . 23. All work in or adjacent to stream waters should be conducted in a dry work area. Approved BMP measures from the most current version of NCDOT Construction and Maintenance Activities manual such as sandbags, rock berms, cofferdams and other diversion structures should be used to prevent excavation in flowing water. 24. Heavy equipment should be operated from the bank rather than in stream channels in order to minimize sedimentation and reduce the likelihood of introducing other pollutants into streams. This equipment should be inspected daily and maintained to prevent contamination of surface waters from leaking fuels, lubricants, hydraulic fluids, or other toxic materials. 25. Riprap should not be placed in the active thalweg channel or placed in the streambed in a manner that precludes aquatic life passage. Bioengineering boulders or structures should be properly designed, sized and installed. 26. Riparian vegetation (native trees and shrubs) should be preserved to the maximum extent possible. Riparian vegetation must be reestablished within the construction limits of the project by the end of the growing season following completion of construction. The NCDWQ appreciates the opportunity to provide comments on your project. Should you have any questions or require any additional information, please contact Sue Homewood at 336-771-4964. cc: John Thomas, US Army Corps of Engineers, Raleigh Field Office Felix Davila, Federal Highway Administration Chris Militscher, Environmental Protection Agency Marla Chambers, NC Wildlife Resources Commission Marella Buncick, US Fish and Wildlife Service DWQ Winston-Salem Regional Office DWQ 401 Transportation Permitting Unit NC Division of Water Quality Planning Branch Modeling and TMDL Unit s92v ?G,9 ?, s??1' PG n, O MEMORANDUM Michelle Woolfolk, Supervisor. 7 From: Narayan Rajbhandari, Modele % Date: August 17, 2006 Subject: Comments on-Pollutant Loading, Estimates for Water Bodies Potentiall Winston-Sal The technical report on "Pollutant Loading Estimates for Water Bodies Potentially Impacted by the Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Extension" aims to evaluate pollutant load estimates for water bodies under the following two scenarios: Projected land cover conditions for the year 2015 without the construction of the beltway extension (no build scenario) and the 2015 projected land cover distribution with the constructed Northern Beltway Extension (Build-out scenario). Two watershed loading models, Generalized Watershed Loading Function (GWLF) and Annualized Agricultural Non-Point Source (AnnAGNPS), were used to evaluate the pollutant loads under the two different scenarios. Followings are my comments on the report: Model Selection: The two models, GWLF and AnnAGNPS, are appropriate for this study. Both models are capable of predicting the impact of land management practices on water and pollutant loads with varying soils, land uses, and management conditions. The models' performance and limitations are well documented in this report. Model Calibration: Significance of model calibration is evaluated by correlating the monthly total pollutant loads estimated by the models with the loads estimated by the regression equation. This is widely used calibration procedure for the watershed where data are limited. Hence, I am comfortable with the calibration procedure. Watershed Parameter Estimation: Parameter values adjusted for the model calibration and projection are not clearly explained in the report. Sensitivity of following watershed parameters under the two scenarios should be incorporated in the report: Flow adjustment factors: Curve number, Manning's roughness coefficient, and saturated hydraulic conductivity. Sediment adjustment factors: Crop management factor, crop residual factor, channel erodible factor, and channel cover factor. Nutrient adjustment factors: Initial nutrient condition in soils and ground water, in-stream nutrient process, fertilizer application rate, nutrient percolation coefficient, and algal biomass coefficient. Others: In table 4-12 (page), the estimation of annual average for simulated sediment load should be 10,241 tones instead of 15,052 tones. Overall, this report is written thoughtfully and well organized. The procedure used for the regression analysis seems ideal for this study. However, I would like to reiterate my comments for watershed parameter estimation. Thank you for giving me the opportunity to read this valuable modeling report. a,,.sUTEo? ' all STATE OF NORTH CAROLINA DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION MICHAEL F. EASLEY LYNDO TIPPETT GOVERNOR SECRETARY May 3, 2006 MEMORANDUM TO: John Den-ley 4vV*94 Division of Water Quality / FROM: Missy Dickens, PE. ; ; r r Program Development Branch I ON BEHALF OF: Project Development and Environmental Analysis Branch SUBJECT: Review of ICI Downstream Water Quality Modeling for Winston-Salem Northern Beltway (Western Section, Eastern Section, and Eastern Section Extension, TIP Projects R-2247, U-2579, and U-2579A, Respectively), Forsyth County Attached for your review is a copy of the Indirect and Cumulative Impact Analysis - Downstream Water Quality Modeling Component for the Winston-Salem Northern Beltway projects, prepared by Louis Berger. Please review and provide your comments by June 9, 2006 if possible. If there are questions, please contact me at 733-2031. ' Cc: Greg Thorpe, Environmental Management Director Carl Goode, Human Environment Unit Head Phil Harris, Natural Environment Unit Head JUN 27 2006 DWO PLANING SECTION MODELING UNIT MAILING ADDRESS: NC DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION PROJECT DEVELOPMENT AND ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 1548 MAIL SERVICE CENTER RALEIGH NC 27899-1548 TELEPHONE: 919-733-3141 FAX: 919-733-9794 WEBSITE: WWW.DOH.DOT.STATE.NC.US LOCATION: TRANSPORTATION BUILDING 1 SOUTH WILMINGTON STREET RALEIGH NC Pollutant Loading Estimates for Waterbodies Potentially Impacted by the Winston- Salem Northern Beltway Extension July, 2005 For Review Purposes ONLY 010FT For Review Purposes ONLY eP.? 44? iii y iLayFti? Zp N qs war 06 ?STQUgC/? prepared by: ®. The Louis Berger Group, Inc. Table of Contents 1.0 Introduction ..........................................................................1-1 1.1 County Description ............................................................................................1-1 1.2 Extent of Proposed Beltway Extension ............................................................1-3 1.3 Study Objectives .................................................................................................1-4 1.4 Summary of Technical Approach .....................................................................1-5 2.0 Model Descriptions .............................................................. 2-1 2.1 GWLF Model ..................................................................................................... 2-1 2. 1.1 GWLF Model Description ....................................................................... 2-1 2.1.2 GWLF Input Data Requirements ............................................................. 2-2 2.1.2.1 Weather Input File ................................................................................ ... 2-2 2.1.2.2 Transport Input File .............................................................................. ... 2-2 2.1.2.3 Nutrient Input File ................................................................................ ... 2-3 2.1.3 GWLF Capabilities and Limitations ..................................................... ... 2-4 2.2 AnnAGNPS Model .......................................................................................... ... 2-5 2.2.1 AnnAGNPS Model Description ........................................................... ... 2-5 2.2.1.1 Surface Runoff Simulation ....................................................................... 2-6 2.2.1.2 Soil Erosion ............................................................................................ .. 2-6 2.2.1.3 Sediment Transport ................................................................................ .. 2-8 2.2.1.4 Sediment Deposition .............................................................................. .. 2-9 2.2.1.5 SCS Runoff Curve Number Equation ..................................................... 2-11 2.2.2 AnnAGNPS Input Data Requirements .................................................. 2-12 2.2.2.1 Climate Data .......................................................................................... 2-12 2.2.3 AnnAGNPS Model Setup Utilities ........................................................ 2-13 2.2.3.1 Ann AGNPS Input Editor ........................................................................ 2-13 2.2.3.2 AnnAGNPSArcView Interface .............................................................. 2-13 2.2.3.3 Output Post-Processing ..................................:...................................... 2-15 2.3 GWLF and AnnAGNPS Model Comparisons .............................................. 2-15 2.3.1 Data Input Preparation ........................................................................... 2-16 Table of Contents Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates 3.12.2 Existing Conditions Total Nitrogen Loads ............................................ 3-35 3.12.3 Existing Conditions Total Phosphorus Loads ........................................ 3-35 4.0 Model Application ................................................................ 4-1 4.1 GWLF Model ..................................................................................................... 4-1 4. 1.1 GWLF Input File Generation ................................................................... 4-1 4.1.2 GWLF Hydrology Calibration ................................................................. 4-3 4.1.3 GWLF Water Quality Calibration ........................................................ ... 4-6 4.1.3.1 Sediment Calibration ............................................................................ ... 4-6 4.1.3.2 Total Nitrogen Calibration ................................................................... ... 4-8 4.1.3.3 Total Phosphorus Calibration .............................................................. . 4-10 4.2 GWLF Model Pollutant Loading Estimates ................................................. . 4-12 4.2.1 GWLF Existing Conditions Scenario ................................................... . 4-12 4.2.2 GWLF Projections for the No-Build Scenario ...................................... . 4-13 4.2.3 GWLF Projected Build-Out Scenario ................................................... . 4-14 4.2.4 GWLF Northern Beltway Pollutant LoadinSumm 4-15 4.3 AnnAGNPS Model ........................................................................................... 4-16 4.3.1 Calibration Strategy ............................................................................... 4-16 4.3.1.1 Comparison of Simulated and Observed Runoff at the South Fork Muddy Creek USGS Station ........................................................................................... 4-17 4.3.1.2 Assurance that Edge-of-Stream (EOS) Loads were within Published Literature Values ............................................................................................... 4-17 4.3.1.3 Calibration of the Transported Pollutant Loads at the South Fork Muddy Creek USGS Station ........................................................................................... 4-18 4.3.1.4 Application of the South Fork Subbasin Parameterization to the Entire Study Area .......................................................................................................... 4-18 4.3.2 Input File Generation ............................................................................. 4-18 4.3.3 Nutrient Applications in AnnAGNPS .................................................... 4-19 4.3.4 AnnAGNPS Hydrology Calibration ...................................................... 4-20 4.3.5 Ann.AGNPS Sediment Calibration ........................................................ 4-22 4.3.6 AmAGNPS Total Nitrogen Calibration .............................. ... 4-24 Table of Contents Iii List of Figures Figure 3-1: Waters of Concern in Proposed Winston-Salem Beltway Extension Study Area ................................................................................................................................ .. 3-5 Figure 3-2: Delineated Study Area for Pollutant Loading Estimates ............................ .. 3-6 Figure 3-3: Weather Stations Used in Pollutant Load Estimation ................................. .. 3-7 Figure 3-4: Soils Distribution in Study Area ................................................................. .. 3-9 Figure 3-5: Location of Stream Geometry Data Collection Transects .......................... 3-11 Figure 3-6: Existing Conditions Land Cover Distribution ............................................ 3-13 Figure 3-7: AnnAGNPS Model Existing Conditions Land Cover ................................ 3-17 Figure 3-8: AnnAGNPS Model 2015 Project Land Cover: No-Build Scenario............ 3-18 j Figure 3-9: AnnAGNPS Model 2015 Project Land Cover: Build-Out Scenario........... 3-19 Figure 3-10: Location of Permitted Facilities in Study Area ......................................... 3-21 ............................................... Figure 3-11: Subbasins within the Study Area ............... 3-25 d Figure 3-12: Distribution of Septic Systems in the Study Area ..................................... 3-26 Figure 3-13: Location of USGS Flow Gages within Study Area .................................. 3-30 ` Figure 3-14: Flow versus Sediment Regression for the Study Area .............................. 3-35 Figure 3-15: Flow versus Total Nitrogen Regression for the Study Area ..................... 3-36 Figure 3-16: Flow versus Total Phosphorus Regression for the Study Area ................. 3-36 Figure 4-1: Location of USGS Flow Gages within Study Area .................................... .. 4-4 Figure 4-2: Hydrology Calibration Results for South Fork Muddy Creek .................... .. 4-5 Figure 4-3: Hydrology Calibration Results for Mainstem Muddy Creek ..................... .. 4-6 Figure 4-4: Sediment Calibration Results for South Fork Muddy Creek ...................... .. 4-7 Figure 4-5: Sediment Calibration Results for Mainstem Muddy Creek ........................ .. 4-8 Figure 4-6: Total Nitrogen Calibration Results for South Fork Muddy Creek .............. .. 4-9 Figure 4-7: Total Nitrogen Calibration Results for Mainstem Muddy Creek ............... .. 4-9 { Figure 4-8: Total Phosphorus Calibration Results for South Fork Muddy Creek......... 4-11 Figure 4-9: Total Phosphorus Calibration Results for Mainstem Muddy Creek........... 4-11 Figure 4-10: Summary of Results for GWLF Modeling Scenarios ............................... 4-16 Figure 4-11: AnnAGNPS Hydrology Calibration Results for South Fork Muddy Creek4-21 Figure 4-12: AnnAGNPS Sediment Calibration Results for South Fork Muddy Creek4-23 i Figure 4-13: AnnAGNPS Nitrogen Calibration Results for South Fork Muddy Creek 4-24 Table of Contents v Table 4-9: Travel Times in the Study Watershed Subbasins .........................................4-17 Table 4-10: Annual Simulated and Observed Flows in South Fork Muddy Creek....... 4-21 Table 4-11: Simulated Erosion Rates by Land Cover Type in the South Fork Muddy Creek Watershed ..................................................................................................... 4-22 Table 4-12: Annual Simulated and Observed Sediment Loads in South Fork Muddy Creek ....................................................................................................................... 4-23 Table 4-13: Simulated Nitrogen Loading Rates by Land Cover Type in the South Fork Muddy Creek Watershed ........................................................................................ 4-24 Table 4-14: Simulated Phosphorus Loading Rates by Land Cover Type in the South Fork Muddy Creek Watershed ........................................................................................4-25 Table 4-15: Average Annual Pollutant Loads from Land Sources under Projected Existing Conditions ................................................................................................ 4-26 Table 4-16: AnnAGNPS and GWLF Annual Sediment and Nutrient Loading Unit-Rates ................................................:.%............................................................................. 4-27 Table 4-17: Average Annual Pollutant Loads from Land Sources under the No-Build Scenario .................................................................................................................. 4-30 Table 4-18: Average Annual Pollutant Loads from Land Sources under the Build-Out Scenario ................................................................................................................ 4-34 ...................... Table 4-19: Summary Comparison of GWLF and AnnAGNPS Models Table 5-1: Projected Land-Use Distributions under the Three Modeling Scenarios ....... 5-2 Table 5-2: Summary of Results No-Build and Build-Out Scenarios ............................... 5-2 Table of Contents VII Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates 1.0 Introduction The proposed Winston-Salem Northern Beltway is located within Forsyth County, North Carolina and it comprises two projects - the Western Section project and the Eastern Section project, which includes the Eastern Section Extension. The Western Section (TIP No. R-2247) is the subject of a Final Environmental Impact Statement (FEIS) issued in 1996 (North Carolina Department of Transportation, 1996). The Eastern Section (TIP No. U-2579) is the subject of a Draft Environmental Impact Statement (DEIS) issued in 1995 (North Carolina Department of Transportation, 1995). Further details about the projects are found in their respective environmental impact statements. The Eastern Section Extension (TIP No. U-2579A) has yet to have a Draft Environmental Impact Statement published, but it is being addressed, along with the TIP Nos. U-2579 and R- 2247, in a new Draft Supplemental Environmental Impact Statement. North Carolina state law requires the development of quantitative pollutant loading estimates in instances where construction projects are proposed in watersheds which have been included on the North Carolina Section 303(d) List as being impaired for their designated uses. The area encompassed by the proposed beltway includes several streams currently listed on the North Carolina Section 303(d) List. Therefore, the North Carolina Department of Transportation (NCDOT) is required to conduct a study that identifies the potentially impacted waterbodies and addresses the impacts of the proposed construction on these impaired waters. This report presents the pollutant loading estimates developed for the waterbodies identified as being potentially impacted by the construction of the Northern Beltway extension. 1.1 County Description The proposed Northern Beltway extension would be located in For County, North Carolina, and would surround the City of Winston-Salem to provide a continuous northern, limited-access freeway loop around the city. Forsyth County is located in the Piedmont region in central North Carolina. The Cities of Winston-Salem, Greensboro, and High Point and their surrounding areas are commonly referred to as the Piedmont Triad region of the state. In addition to Winston-Salem, the largest city in the county, Introduction 1-1 Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates Forsyth County is comprised of seven smaller municipalities, including Bethania, Clemmons, Kemersville, Lewisville, Rural Hall, Tobaccoville and Walkertown. Population in the county was reported to be approximately 306,000 people in the 2000 U.S. Census, and is projected to grow to approximately 365,000 people by the year 2015. Existing land cover types in western Forsyth County consist primarily of single-family residential and rural land cover types with a limited scattering of commercial and industrial uses. Residential uses generally consist of single-family residences in suburban and rural settings. In eastern Forsyth County, the existing land cover conditions are comprised of a mix of forested, rural, agricultural, and residential land cover types interspersed with scattered commercial and industrial development along the major traffic arteries. Particularly accelerated growth is occurring in eastern Forsyth County in the area north of US 421/I-40 Business and west of Kernersville. Residential development in Forsyth County is most highly concentrated in the eastern section of the county. In particular, residential development is concentrated along the following thoroughfares: US 421/I-40 Business, West Mountain Street, Walkertown- i.; Guthrie Road, US158, Northampton Drive, Old Walkertown Road, NC 66, Baux Mountain Road, Old Rural Hall Road, Germanton Road, Stanleyville Drive, and University Parkway. The greatest area of commercial and industrial development occurs in the US 421/I-40 Business and West Mountain Street areas in the eastern section of the county. Commercial and industrial land cover types in western Forsyth County include a broad range of structures and uses. Commercial uses are most prominent at the intersection of major roadways, while industrial uses are concentrated along the highways. Agricultural land cover types in the county include land used to grow small grain crops, primarily com and soybeans. In addition, several agri-business farms, horse-riding stables, and plant nurseries are in the area. There are about 850 farms (average size is 65 acres) in Forsyth County, of which approximately one-third are located in the western portion of the county. Introduction 1-2 Winston-Salern Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates 1.2 Extent of Proposed Beltway Extension The existing transportation system in Winston-Salem and Forsyth County consists of one interstate highway, four US highways, and six NC highways. I-40 is North Carolina's major east-west link, connecting Asheville, Winston-Salem, Greensboro, Burlington, Chapel Hill, Durham, Raleigh, and Wilmington. I-40 links Winston-Salem to Greensboro and I-85 to the east and to Asheville and I-77 to the west. The I-40 bypass provides a southern east-west bypass of the Winston-Salem and Kernersville urban areas, whereas US 421/I-40 Business provides an east-west principal arterial through the Winston-Salem central business district (CBD). The four US routes are US 421, US 311, US 158, and US 52. US 52 is the primary north-south route through Winston-Salem; US 52 connects to I- 77 to the north and I-85 to the south. The combination of I-40 and the US routes provide an intercity routing system for the Piedmont Triad formed by the cities of Winston- Salem, Greensboro, and High Point. " As specified above, the proposed Winston-Salem Northern Beltway extension is comprised of two projects; the Western Section project and the Eastern Section project. The Western Section project would consist of a varying four- to six-lane highway that would extend approximately 17 miles from a southern terminus along Stratford Road (US 158) to a northern terminus along US 52, just north of an intersection with University Parkway. The Western Section would include ten interchange locations, as follows: South Stratford Road (US 158), I-40, US 421, Shallowford Road, Robinhood Road, Yadkinville Road, Reynolda Road (NC 67), Bethania-Tobaccoville Road, and US 52. In addition to the City of Winston-Salem, the communities incorporated by the Western Section project would include the towns of Lewisville, Tobaccoville, and Rural Hall, and the Village of Clemmons. The Eastern Section project would extend approximately 17 miles from US 52 north of Winston-Salem to US 311 southeast of Winston-Salem. This section of the Beltway would provide for improved safety and traffic operation for traffic currently routed along congested existing routes. The Eastern Section would lie generally east and north of Winston-Salem, south of the town of Rural Hall, and west of the town of Kernersville. Portions of this section would traverse the corporate limits of Winston-Salem and Introduction 1-3 Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates Walkertown. The western terminus of the Eastern Section would be located at US 52, the proposed northern terminus of the Western Section of the beltway. The Eastern Section of the beltway would terminate at a proposed interchange with US 311, located southeast of Winston-Salem. The Eastern Section would have interchanges at the following roadways: University Parkway (NC 66), Germanton Road (NC 8), Baux Mountain Road, New Walkertown Road (US 311), Reidsville Road (US 158), US 421/I-40 Business (NC 150), Kernersville Road, I-40 Bypass, and US 311. 1.3 Study Objectives The objectives of the current study were to develop accurate and technically-credible pollutant load estimates for waterbodies potentially impacted by the Winston-Salem Northern Beltway extension. The first step in accomplishing this task was to reproduce the existing sediment, nitrogen, and phosphorus loading conditions in the study area; i.e., to simulate the actual response of the watershed under existing conditions. After simulating the existing loading conditions, pollutant loads under future scenarios were estimated using projected land cover conditions for the year 2015 without the construction of the beltway extension (no-build scenario), and the 2015 projected land cover distribution with the constructed Northern Beltway Extension (build-out scenario). A key component used to develop land cover projections, and ultimately develop pollutant loads under the future conditions, was the Indirect and Cumulative Impact (ICI) Assessment study conducted on behalf of NC DOT. This study was conducted to address potential direct and indirect cumulative impacts resulting from the construction of the Northern Beltway Extension. The ICI study uses the Piedmont Triad regional travel model to assign impacts to specific areas (traffic analysis zones) and to evaluate changes in land cover and development resulting from the beltway construction, as well as future growth changes in the absence of the Northern Beltway Extension. Under the projected land cover scenarios, changes in pollutant loads under future land cover conditions were estimated and the potential impacts to Section 303(d) listed , streams within the study area were quantified. The two modeling approaches used to 1AA J achieve these objectives were the Annualized Agricultural Non-Point Source Introduction 1-4 ? (AnnAGNPS) model and the Generalized Watershed Loading Function (GWLF) model. Additional detail and descriptions of these modeling approaches are presented in later sections of this report. An additional goal of this study was to compare these two approaches with respect to their capabilities and the ease with which they can be setup and run, in order to provide NCDOT with information that may be used to direct the choice of modeling approaches in future pollutant simulation studies. 1.4 Summary of Technical Approach The technical approach described in this study presents the methodology used to develop pollutant loading estimates for waterbodies potentially impacted by the proposed Winston-Salem Northern Beltway extension, and the results of those analyses. Section 2.0 presents the two models (AnnAGNPS and GWLF) used to develop the pollutant loading estimates, and also describes the data needs for both models and their capabilities and limitations. Section 3.0 describes the physical and environmental monitoring data used to develop the input files required for the AnnAGNPS and GWLF models. Section 4.0 presents the hydrologic and water quality calibrations for both models, as well as the pollutant loading estimates generated for the existing conditions scenarios and the projected land cover scenarios. Section 5.0 discusses and analyzes the results generated from both the Ann.AGNPS and GWLF models. 1 Introduction -s Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates 2.0 Model Descriptions This section presents and describes the two models used to estimate pollutant loads resulting from the Winston-Salem Northern Beltway extension. The two models utilized in this project include the Annualized Agricultural Non-Point Source (AnnAGNPS) model, and the Generalized Watershed Loading Function (GWLF) model. Below, the AnnAGNPS and GWLF models are described and the input requirements for each model are documented. Additionally, the capabilities and limitations of each model are presented and analyzed, with particular consideration given to their data requirements and the setup and processing time of each model. 2.1 GWLF Model 2.1.1 GWLF Model Description GWLF is a time variable simulation model that simulates hydrology and sediment loadings on a watershed basis. Observed daily precipitation data is required in GWLF as the basis for water budget calculations. Surface runoff, evapotranspiration and groundwater flows are calculated based on user specified parameters. Stream flow is calculated as the sum of surface runoff and groundwater discharge. Surface runoff is computed using the Soil Conservation Service Curve Number Equation. Curve numbers are a function of soils and land use type. Evapotranspiration is computed based on the method described by Hamon (1961) and is dependent upon temperature, daylight hours, saturated water vapor pressure, and a cover coefficient. Groundwater contributions to the stream are described in the model using a lumped parameter water balance. Infiltration to the unsaturated zone occurs when precipitation exceeds surface runoff and evapotranspiration. Percolation to the shallow saturated zone occurs when the unsaturated zone capacity is exceeded. The shallow saturated zone is modeled as a linear reservoir to calculate groundwater discharge. In addition, the model allows for seepage to a deep saturated zone. Nutrient loading is a function of concentrations of dissolved nutrients in the groundwater and runoff from land sources areas, as well as particulate nutrients associated with sediments, and nutrients originating from septic systems. Nutrient loadings from surface Model Descriptions 2-1 Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates runoff are determined based on land use and soils distributions, as well as groundwater and soil nutrient levels. Particulate nutrients associated with sediment are calculated by applying a nutrient loading coefficient to the computed sediment loads. Sediment, nitrogen, and phosphorus loadings are a function of the land source areas present in the watershed. Multiple source areas may be defined based on land use type, the underlying soils type, and the management practices applied to the land. The Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) is used to compute erosion for each source area and a sediment delivery ratio is applied to determine the sediment loadings to the stream. Surface nutrient losses are determined by applying dissolved nitrogen and phosphorus coefficients to surface runoff and a sediment coefficient to the yield portion for each agricultural source area. Pollutant loadings from each source area are added to obtain a watershed total. 2.1.2 GWLF Input Data Requirements The GWLF model requires three input files, including a weather input file (Weather.dat) a transport input file (Transport.dat), and a nutrient input file (Nutrient.dat). The inputs files are structured as comma-delimited text files. 2.1.2.1 Weather Input File The weather input file requires daily precipitation data expressed in centimeters, and daily temperature data expressed in degrees Celsius. The weather input file requires a minimum of 12 months of data, and the data must begin in April and end in March of the following year. 2.1.2.2 Transport Input He The transport input file requires specification of input parameters relating to hydrology, erosion, and sediment yield. The Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) factors for soil erodibility (K), length-slope (LS), cover and management (C), and supporting practice (P) are required to estimate erosion loss and sediment yield. The soil erodibility (K) factor is a measure of inherent soil erosion potential, and is primarily a function of soil texture and composition. The slope-length (LS) factor is a function of overland runoff and slope. The cropping management (C) factor is used to represent the effect of ground Model Descriptions 2-2 Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant • data to generate the daily phosphorus loading conditions. The resulting existing-condition phosphorus loads are presented in Appendix G. Figure 3-15: Flow versus Total Nitrogen Regression for the Study Area y = 4.4603x Observed Data R2 = 0.79 Total Nitrogen vs. Flow Regression 10000 1000 100 Z ? 10 H 1 1 10 100 1000 10000 Flow (cfs) Figure 3-16: Flow versus Total Phosphorus Regression for the Study Area Appendix C 3-36 • Figure 3-14: Flow versus Sediment Regression for the Study Area y = 0.0038X18881 Observed Data R2 = 0.90 Flow vs. Sediment Regression 100000 010 10000 v • c ? 1000 V ;010 000 00, M O J .. 100 ? C d ? ? ?j 10 N $04 4.4 1 10 100 1000 10000 Flow (cfs) 3.12.2 Existing Conditions Total Nitrogen Loads Similarly to the development of the sediment loads, a regression equation was developed n based on the observed relationship between stream hydrology and total nitrogen loading; as indicated in Figure 3-15, an R2 value of 0.79 shows that an acceptable correlation j exists between nitrogen loads and stream flow. The nitrogen regression equation (Nitrogen, loads = f(Flow)) was applied to the daily stream flow to generate the daily nitrogen loading conditions. The resulting existing-condition nitrogen loads are presented in Appendix G. 3.12.3 Existing Conditions Total Phosphorus Loads Similar to the development of the sediment loads, a regression equation was developed based on the observed relationship between stream hydrology and total phosphorus loading; as indicated in Figure 3-16, an R2 value of 0.79 shows that an acceptable correlation exists between phosphorus loads and stream flow. The phosphorus regression equation (Phosphorus loads = f(Flow)) was applied to the daily observed stream flow 3 Appendix C -35 Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates might be limited, they represented the best information available to develop existing- conditions loads. The second step was to use the regression equations developed for sediment, phosphorus, and nitrogen (Loads = f(Flow)) and apply them to the daily observed flow at the USGS flow stations to create observed pollutant loads. The derived pollutant loads span the calibration period from 1988 to 1991 and were compared to the simulated pollutant loads generated by GWLF and AnnAGNPS to evaluate the ability of the models to predict observed sediment loadings. In other words, the existing-conditions loads were used to calibrate the models and assess their ability to reproduce the existing- conditions loading response in the study area. 3.12.1 Estimation of the Existing Conditions Sediment Loads In order to develop daily sediment loading estimates using the available data, observed sediment data collected at USGS stations 02115860 and 021159 were combined and plotted against the corresponding flow data collected for each corresponding date (Figure 3-14). A regression equation (observed flow vs. observed sediment loads) was developed, and as indicated by the R2 value of 0.90, a strong correlation exists between these two variables. The sediment regression equation (Loads = f(Flow)) was applied to the daily observed stream flow values to generate the daily sediment loading conditions. These resulting loads are presented in Appendix G. Appendix C 3-34 • •• I In 11-1111 •.• • Table 3-11: USGS Stadons with Observed Flow and Pollutant Loads Data Period for Daily Number of Water Period for Water Quality USGS Station Name USGS ID St ti Flow Observations Quality Observations' on a Observations TSS TN TP Silas Creek Near 02115800 1964-1970 1988-1989 9 9 9 Clemson Muddy Creek NC 65 at 0211569650 none 1988-1989 9 9 9 Bethania Peters Creek at West 02115846 none 1988-1989 8 8 6 Salem Salem Creek at SR2657 0211583290 none 1988-1989 9 9 9 at Guthrie Salem Creek near 02115856 1971-1982 1978-1979 26 3 3 Atwood Salem Creek near Muddy 02115858 none 1988-1989 8 8 8 Creek Muddy Creek near 0211586 4 1964-1979 91 1988-1989 37 9 9 Muddy Creek ?---?- - ' 1988-19 South fork Muddy Creek 0211590 ? 1964-1979 1991 1988-1989 5 J8 : 8 near Clemmons --?- 1988- TSS= Total Suspenaea boaas, 11V= 1 VUU 114MUKrall al"- •vwi ¦ uvoy+avwwv Because these data were collected at the same locations as the USGS stream flow data used in the hydrology calibration of the AnnAGNPS and GWLF models, the available USGS water quality were the., data used to calibrate the water quality components of the AnnAGNPS and GWLF models. 3.12 Derivation of Existing-Conditions Pollutant Loads Regressions in order to assess the ability of the. AnnAGNPS and GWLF models to reproduce the existing-conditions pollutant exports in the study area, it was necessary to develop existing-conditions pollutant loads at each one of the USGS stations of interest. The existing-conditions pollutant loads were developed using the available flow and water quality data discussed in Section 3.11.3 and summarized in Table 3-11. These data consists only of the observations collected at USGS stations 02115856, 02115860 and 02115900 (where stream flow and pollutant loads data are simultaneously available). The first step was to combine and use these data in the development of correlation equations (i.e., flow vs. load regressions). In other words, it was assumed that the >. observed data represent the water quality response of the watershed. While these data Appendix C 3-33 Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates ..,? cover conditions, soil conditions, and general management practices on soil erosion. The erosion control practice (P) factor is used to depict the effectiveness of various structural and non-structural practices such as terracing and residue management in reducing soil erosion on cultivated land. USLE erosion factors are specified as an average value for a given source area (i.e., land cover type). A sediment delivery ratio is used in GWLF based on the premise that a certain percentage of the material eroded from the land surface is deposited prior to its reaching nearby surface water. The sediment delivery ratio is applied based on the relationship between sediment delivery and watershed size. Runoff curve numbers specified in the NRCS Technical Release 55 (MRCS, 1986) are also required as input parameters of the transport file. Runoff curve numbers are empirically derived values used in watershed hydrology simulation studies that reflect the relative amounts of surface runoff and infiltration occurring at a given location, and are specified as an average value for a given source area (i.e., land cover type). Evapotranspiration cover coefficients required by GWLF are used to relate the relative amount of evapotranspiration occurring within the modeled watershed, and are expressed y? for each model source area based upon existing vegetative cover. Typical values range from 1.0 for wooded areas during the growing season to 0.3 for annual crops during the dormant season. A simple vegetation growth algorithm is used to estimate evapotranspiration based on daylight hours and growing season. The GWLF model also requires the initialization of groundwater hydrology parameters such as rainfall erosivity coefficients, antecedent moisture conditions, initial saturated and unsaturated groundwater storage, unsaturated available water capacity, and recession and groundwater seepage coefficients. 2.1.2.3 Nutrient Input File The nutrient input file requires specification of both dissolved and solid-phase sources of nutrients. Dissolved nutrients are associated with runoff, point sources, and groundwater contributions to stream flow. Solid-phase nutrients originate from point sources, soil erosion, and urban washoff. Within the GWLF model, dissolved nitrogen, and phosphorus loads are obtained by multiplying runoff volumes by average dissolved nutrient concentrations. Solid-phase nutrients associated with sediment are quantified Model Descriptions 2-3 Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates using established literature values for soil nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations. This is particularly important for phosphorus, which is highly associated with sediment and is principally conveyed to surface waters via soil erosion. Nutrient build-up and washoff functions are used in GWLF to estimate solid-phase nutrient loads from urban areas. Groundwater nitrogen and phosphorus loads are calculated by specifying background nitrogen and phosphorus groundwater concentrations. For modeling purposes, an area- weighted value is calculated in a given watershed and subsequently scaled by a constant to better reflect subsurface concentrations. GWLF is also capable of simulating nutrient loading from point sources and septic systems; for these point sources, nitrogen, and phosphorus loads are specified for each source in the nutrient input file. 2.1.3 GWLF Capabilities and Limitations The GWLF model was developed and intended to be used to perform planning-level analyses. GWLF is capable of simulating flow, sediment, nitrogen, and phosphorus loads from different source areas within a watershed. However. no routing or other spatial loading distribution fractions are_preseint _in the GWLF model; GWLF is a lumped parameter model that estimates pollutant loading rates for each designated source area (i.e., land cover type) specified in the input files. GWLF simulates flow and pollutant loading_ s on a daily basis. The GWLF model is also capable of simulating all processes of the hydrological cycle; however, it should be noted that there is no stream flow or _groundwater routing in ;GWL-F and, groundwater is represented as a "bathtub" in the model. GWLF was developed as. a planning tool for estimating nutrient and sediment loadings on a. watershed . basis, and designers of the model intended for it to be implemented without calibration. A key advantage to the GWLF model is its comparatively low input requirements and short setup time. Input to the GWLF model consists of three input files, and most of the required data are readily available. Weather data are available from the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), and land cover and soils parameters required for the transport input file are available from regional or national datasets. Nutrient data are less readily available, but the GWLF user's manual (Haith et al., 1992) provides default model values in instances where more site specific data has not been collected. The setup Model Descriptions 2-4 Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates .:. time to develop the input files and run the GWLF model ranges from a few days to approximately one week, depending upon the availability of the required data and the amount of site specific data available for the area. Although flow and water quality calibration was performed for the GWLF model in this study, the fact that GWLF was intended to be used without calibration allows users to quickly generate pollutant load estimates without going through the calibration process. 2.2 AnnAGNPS Model 2.2.1 AnnAGNPS Model Description The Agricultural Non-Point Source (AGNPS) model was developed in the early 1980's by the Agricultural Research Service (ARS) in cooperation with the Minnesota Pollution Control Agency, and the Natural Resource Conservation Service (MRCS). The model was developed to analyze and provide estimates of runoff water quality resulting from single storm events from agricultural watersheds ranging in size from a few hectares to 20,000 hectares. In the early 1990's, a team of ARS and NRCS scientists was formed to develop a continuous-simulation version of the model, AnnAGNPS (Annualized Agricultural Non-point Source model), also referred to as AGNPS 2001. AnnAGNPS is a distributed-parameter model where the watershed is subdivided into homogenous land parcels (cells) with respect to soil type, land use, and land management. AnnAGNPS simulates surface water, sediment, nutrients, and jesticides- leavin the cells and._th. transport through the watershed. The main purpose of the model is to._examme. current conditions or to compare the effects of implementing various - conservation alternatives over time within the watershed. Alternative cropping and tillage systems, fertilizer, pesticide, and irrigation application rates, point source loads and feedlot management can all be evaluated using the AnnAGNPS model. AnnAGNPS requires 34 different categories/blocks of input data. These can be further grouped into the following major classifications: climate, land characterization, field operations, chemical characteristics, and feedlot operations. The climatic classification consists of precipitation, maximum and minimum air temperature, relative humidity, sky cover, and wind speed data. Land characterization data includes soil characterization, Model Descriptions 2-5 Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates curve number, RUSLE parameters, and watershed drainage characterization. The field operation classification includes data regarding tillage, planting, harvest, rotation, chemical operations, and irrigation schedules. The feedlot operations classification includes daily manure production rates, time of manure removal, and the residual amount from previous operations. There are over 400 separate input parameters necessary for model execution. Some of these parameters are repeated for each cell, soil type, land use, feedlot, and/or channel reach. 2.2.1.1 Surface Runoff Simulation Runoff is calculated using the SCS Runoff Curve Number equation. The SCS curve number technique is used within AnnAGNPS to determine the surface runoff from a field, which is then scaled up to determine surface runoff for the entire watershed. A soil moisture water budget is performed 6n a daily basis and includes source water (rainfall, irrigation, and snow-melt), runoff, evapotranspiration, and percolation. Curve numbers are modified daily based upon soil moisture, agricultural operations, and crop stage. The soil profile is divided into two layers. The top layer (200 mm) is used as a tillage layer whose properties (bulk density, etc.) can change. The remaining soil profile comprises the second layer whose properties remain static. Actual evapotranspiration is a function of potential evapotranspiration calculated using the Penman equation and soil moisture content. Time of concentration in each cell can be either entered as input data or calculated by the model. When calculated by the model, the cell time of concentration is the sum of the travel times from the most hydraulically distant point for overland flow, shallow concentrated flow, and concentrated flow within the cell. Calculations for the three flow types are based upon the NRCS TR-55 (SCS, 1986) procedures. 2.2.1.2 Soil Erosion Soil erosion in AnnAGNPS is simulated using the Revised Universal Soils Loss Equation (RUSLE) (Renard et al., 1997). RUSLE is a set of mathematical equations that estimate average annual soil loss and sediment yield resulting from interrill and rill erosion. It is derived from the theory of erosion processes, more than 10,000 plot-years of data from Model Descriptions 2-6 Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates natural rainfall plots, and numerous rainfall-simulation plots. RUSLE was developed from its predecessor, the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE, Wischmeier and Smith, 1978), and is expressed as: A=RKLSCP Where: A =Average annual soil loss in tons per acre per year R =Rainfall/runoff erosivity K =Soil erodibility LS = Field slope length and steepness C =Cover/management factor P =Conservation practice factor The R factor is an expression of the erosivity of rainfall and runoff in the area of interest; the R factor increases as the amount and intensity of rainfall increases. The K factor represents the inherent erodibility of the soils in the area of interest under standard experimental conditions. The K factor is expressed as a function of the particle-size distribution, organic-matter content, structure, and permeability of the soils. The LS factor represents the effect of topography, specifically field slope length and steepness, on rates of soil loss at a particular site. The LS factor increases as field slope length and steepness increase due to accumulation and acceleration of surface runoff as it flows in a downslope direction. The C factor represents the effects of surface cover and roughness, soil biomass, and soil-disturbing activities on rates of soil loss at the area of interest. The C factor decreases as surface cover and soil biomass increase. The P factor represents the effects of supporting conservation practices, such as contouring, buffer strips, and terracing, on soil loss at the area of interest. The P factor decreases with the installation of conservation practices because these practices reduce runoff volume and velocity, and Model Descriptlons 2-7 Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates encourage the deposition of sediment on the land surface before it reaches the surface water. AnnAGNPS uses the RUSLE equation only to predict sheet and rill erosion. The Hydro- geomorphic Universal Soil Loss Equation (HUSLE) is used to estimate the delivery ratio of the sediment yield from sheet and rill erosion to sediment delivery to the stream (Theurer and Clarke, 1991). HUSLE calculates the total sediment yield for a storm event to any point in the watershed using data on the average upstream RUSLE parameters, upstream drainage area, volume of water runoff, peak discharge, and the RUSLE regression coefficients for the applicable hydro-geomorphic area. AnnAGNPS also establishes the particle-size distribution of the sediment yield of the sheet and rill erosion to the receiving reach of the modeled stream. The particle-size sediment deposition over the land surface is assumed to be proportional to the mass fall velocity of the individual particle-size classes (sand, large and small aggregates, silt, and clay). Particle-size classes are represented as the product of their densities and their fall velocities, which generates a deposition mass rate for each particle-size. The deposition mass rate values for each particle-size class are summed and normalized to generate deposition ratio mass rates. Field deposition is determined from these calculations. 2.2.1.3 Sediment Transport Sediment routing in AnnAGNPS is preformed in concentrated flow channels for the five sediment particle-size classes for each increment of the hydrologic simulation. Inflow from AnnAGNPS cells contains only the primary particles of clay, silt, and sand; however, aggregates can be routed if they are present in the channel or from other sources. Sediment concentrations in AnnAGNPS are defined as: Cs = Sm/Wm Where: Cs = sediment concentration, expressed in Mg-sediment/Mg-water Sm = sediment mass, expressed in Mg Model Descriptions 2-8 Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates Wm = water mass from the upstream drainage area, expressed in Mg Sediment concentrations are assumed to be constant throughout the simulation. Therefore, the sediment load for a given discharge at any time during the simulation can be expressed as: Qs = Cs*Qw Where: Cs = sediment concentration, expressed in Mg-sediment/Mg-water Qs = unit-width sediment load, expressed in Mg/s/m Qw = unit-width water discharge at a given time, expressed as Mg/s/m AnnAGNPS simulates sediment transport capacity, unit-width water discharge, and shear velocity (assuming unit-width) based upon parameters specified at the upstream end of the modeled stream reach. 2.2.1.4 Sediment Deposition Sediment routing for'each modeled stream reach is performed using a unit-width, steady- state, spatially-variable sediment discharge model. The sediment routing procedure is the same for all modeled reaches; upstream sediment discharges are calculated as the sum of all incoming sediment loads from upstream reaches and the local sediment load associated with the immediate upstream reach. Sediment loads from cells draining to headwater streams are comprised only of local sediment loadings, because there are no sediment loads originating from upstream reaches. The sediment routing equation is expressed as: Qs2 = Qsc + [(Qs 1- Qsc) * exp (-Nd)) Where: Nd = sediment deposition number, non-dimensional Model Descriptlons 2-9 Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates Qsc = unit-width sediment transport capacity, expressed in Mg/s/m Qs1 = upstream unit-width sediment discharge at X1, expressed in Mg/s/m Qs2 = downstream unit-width sediment discharge at X2, expressed as Mg/s/m Determination of the sediment deposition number, Nd, is calculated using the following equation: Nd = (Ae * Vf * L2) / Qw Where: Ae = Einstein's constant of proportionality, for any given flow and particle size, between the depth-average suspended sediment concentration and the sediment concentration at the laminar sublayer plane, non-dimensional Vf = particle fall velocity, expressed in m/s L2 = distance from Xl to X2, expressed in meters Qw = unit-width water discharge, expressed in m3/s/m For clay, silt, and small aggregates, Einstein's constant of proportionality is equal to one. For sand and large aggregates, Einstein's constant of proportionality is derived as a function of shear velocity, particle fall velocity, and a turbulent flow mixing length constant. For cells draining headwater streams (i.e., primary cells), the distance from X1 to X2 is the distance from the most hydraulically distant point (X1) to the cell outlet (X2). For cells draining larger areas (i.e., secondary cells) the distance from X1 to X2 is the length of the concentrated flow channel segment for the reach. In all cases, X2 represents the cell outlet for each modeled reach. All incoming sediment loads from upstream reaches enters the cell at the upstream end of the reach (X1). Sediment loadings originating from within cells are assumed to be delivered to the downstream end of the cell's associated reach (X2). Channel dimensions for each reach can be calculated Model Descriptions 2-10 Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates using either flow characteristics for the representative reach, or geomorphic characteristics such as the drainage area at the upstream end of the respective reach. 2.2.1.5 SCS Runoff Curve Number Equation The SCS runoff curve number method is a simple, widely used and efficient method for determining the amount of runoff from a rainfall event in a particular area. Although the method was originally designed for a single storm event, it has been successfully applied to the AnnAGNPS continuous simulation model. The SCS runoff curve number equation is expressed as: Q = (WI - 0.2 S)2 / (WI + 0.8 S) Where: Q = surface runoff, expressed in mm WI = water input to the soil, expressed in mm S = soil retention parameter, expressed in mm The soil retention parameter is calculated using the following equation: S = 254 [(100/CN) -1] where CN is the curve number The surface runoff curve number equation is based on trends observed in data from collected sites, and is therefore an empirically-based equation rather than a physically- based equation. SCS Curve Numbers were developed to classify the varying runoff potentials of different soil types and land cover distributions, and are a function of hydrologic soil group classification, land cover type, and antecedent soil moisture conditions. Curve number values can range between 0 and 100, although the, typical range is between 25 through 98. A land cover type with a curve number value of 98 is considered to bean impervious surface such as pavement or the roof of a building; the high curve number indicates that the area has a high runoff potential. Conversely, low curve numbers Model Descriptions 2-11 • Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates specify land cover types with low runoff potential, such as forested lands and other undisturbed areas. Curve numbers vary depending on antecedent moisture conditions; different curve number values are assigned to land cover types under wet versus dry conditions. AnnAGNPS use a slightly modified approach of the SCS Curve Number equation to generate curve numbers for the modeled land cover types, in which a greater fraction of the soil moisture input is apportioned to surface runoff as the precipitation amount and soil water content of the soils increase. CN1 and CN3 are calculated as a function of CN2. In AnnAGNPS, curve numbers are allowed to vary depending on soil water content, and curve number values for the range of weather conditions (i.e., wet conditions and dry conditions) are calculated as a function of the average curve number value for a given land cover type. 2.2.2 AnnAGNPS Input Data Requirements 2.2.2.1 Climate Data An input file containing daily climatic data is `required to run continuous simulations using the AnnAGNPS model. AnnAGNPS requires six climatic elements for each day of simulation, including daily precipitation, maximum and minimum daily temperature, sky cover, average daily dew point temperature, and average daily wind speed data. Climate data are of great importance in AnnAGNPS; daily precipitation data are the primary driver of the hydrologic cycle, temperature data are used to define frozen conditions, and the remaining climate elements are used in computing potential evapotranspiration. Climate data used with AnnAGNPS may be historically recorded data, synthetically generated data, or a combination of the two. Historical precipitation data and other climate data are often available from sources such as the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). A synthetic climate generator utility program, GEM, is included in the AnnAGNPS modeling package, and generates synthetic climate data based on the proximity of the study area to weather stations included in the program. GEM generates daily precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature, and solar radiation data. A separate program, Complete-Climate, is Model Descriptions 2-12 Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates :., included in the AnnAGNPS modeling package to generate climate data for the remaining required input parameters (sky cover, dew point temperature, and wind speed). The Complete-Climate program combines the GEM output file with climatic information on sky cover, dew point temperature, and wind speed, to generate an output file containing all six climatic elements needed as input to the AnnAGNPS model. 2.2.3 AnnAGNPS Model Setup Utilities The Ann.AGNPS model package includes several tools and utilities to facilitate the creation of the model input file, the running the AnnAGNPS model, and the processing of model output. These utilities are described below. 2.2.3.1 AnnAGNPS Input Editor The AnnAGNPS input editor guides users through all the steps needed to create the input file. Data can be assessed and edited within the interface by clicking on the field name. The input editor is the only tool needed to develop the input file for a small watershed consisting of only a few cells and reaches; in instances where a more complex watershed ..::.? is modeled, reach and cell data can be imported from the AnnAGNPS ArcView interface into the input editor. 2.2.3.2 AnnAGNPS ArcView Interface The AnnAGNPS ArcView Interface assists the development of the AnnAGNPS model input file by automating many of the input data preparation steps needed to develop the input file, including stream reach (i.e., receiving reach, length, elevation, & slope) data, and cell (i:e., drainage area, elevation, aspect, land slope, and receiving reach) data. The ArcView Interface consists of two programs: 1) an existing operational computer model, TopAGNPS, which is a subset of the ARS Topographic Parameterization (TOPAZ) model 2) a FORTRAN program, AgFlow, used to generate elevation-related stream reach input parameters For additional details on the AnnAGNPS ArcView Interface please see Appendix A. Model Descriptions 2-13 Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates) 2.2.3.2.1 TOPAGNPS a TOPAZ (Topographic Parameterization) is a software package for automated analysis of digital landscape topography, of which TopAGNPS is a subset program. The overall objective of TOPAZ and TopAGNPS is to provide a comprehensive evaluation of the digital landscape topography with particular emphasis on maintaining consistency between all derived data, the initial input topography, and the physics underlying energy and water flux processes at the landscape surface. A raster digital elevation model (DEM) is used by TopAGNPS to identify and measure topographic features, define surface drainage, subdivide watersheds along drainage divides, quantify the drainage network, and calculate representative subcatchment parameters. The TOPAGNPS software package consists of 3 programs: DEDNM, RASPRO, and RASFOR. The DEDNM (Digital Elevation Drainage Network Model) program performs several functions, including pre-processing the elevation data, performing hydrographic watershed segmentation, defining the drainage network, watershed, and subwatershed boundaries, and tabulating input parameters. The RASPRO (Raster Properties) program derives additional spatial topographic information and parameters from the basic raster datasets produced by the DEDNM program. The RASFOR (Raster Formatting) program is a raster reformatting utility. 2.2.3.2.2 AGFLOW The AGFLOW model uses output files from TOPAGNPS as input to generate input parameters necessary for the AnnAGNPS model. TOPAGNPS model output is expressed as raster data records which contain information on particular geographic features, such as soil type, elevation, land use, and field slope. AGFLOW is a FORTRAN program. The AGFLOW program generates five output files; two files containing information on cell and reach parameters that are imported into the AnnAGNPS input file, one file containing input to the VBFLOWNET program, one file containing summary information for the delineated model subareas, and one log file for the execution of the AGFLOW program. The key output from AGFLOW are the two files containing the AnnAGNPS model's cell and reach parameters that are imported into Model Descriptions 2-14 Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates . the input editor to create the AnnAGNPS input file sections related to the cell and reach data. 2.2.3.3 Output Post-processing The AnnAGNPS modeling package contains a model output processor which converts output from AnnAGNPS into tabular format with table headings, and summarizes event output by reach. The output processor organizes output by type, such as water, sediment class and/or source, nitrogen, phosphorus, etc. Output data can be displayed by individual event (i.e., event output) or by an individual pollutant of interest (i.e., source accounting output). The event output file contains runoff and pollutant information for selected reaches and the watershed outlet for each day there is runoff, summarized by individual runoff event. Data simulated at the watershed outlet are always included in the event output file, along with data simulated at any reaches specified by the user in the AunAGNPS input file. Runoff must be simulated in the specified reaches (measured at the upstream end of the reach) in order to be included in the event output file. The event output file can be in specified in either English or metric units in the AnnAGNPS input data file. The source accounting output file contains information regarding the pollutant contribution of a specified component (i.e., cell, reach, etc.) to the watershed outlet or a specified watershed reach over the simulation period. Output data are expressed as a fraction of the outlet or reach accumulations for a given parameter. Output can be generated for each of the following categories: water (flow), sediment class, sediment source, nutrients, and pesticides. The source accounting output file can be specified in either English or metric units in the AnnAGNPS input data file. 2.3 GWLF and AnnAGNPS Model Comparisons This section compares the two models and their capabilities to assess the pollutant load changes resulting from projects such as the construction of the Northern Beltway Extension in Forsyth County, North Carolina. It should first be noted that the two models span the limits of complexity in the spectrum of watershed modeling. AnnAGNPS is a detailed watershed-scale continuous simulation pollutant loading model, while GWLF is Model Descriptions 2-15 Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates) classified as a screening-level model developed for planning-level analyses. Such an observation does not imply that one model is better suited that the other to make more accurate pollutant loading predictions; such conclusions will be discussed and evaluated after presenting the results of applying the two models to estimate sediment and nutrient loads in the study area potentially impacted by the beltway construction. 2.3.1 Data Input Preparation Overall, both models require similar climatic data to drive the hydrologic simulations. GWLF is a lumped-parameter model, as opposed to AnnAGNPS, which is a distributed- parameter model whereby the watershed is divided into cells with unique physical characteristics. Information specific to each cell is required as input to the AnnAGNPS model. Similar information is required for each reach such as the reach depth, width, etc. The level of data required depends upon the degree of schematization and segmentation delineated for the watershed. In AnnAGNPS, model computations are done at the cell level, and runoff, sediment, and nutrients are routed cell to cell from the watershed boundaries to the outlet. Because of its distributed approach, the spatial data requirements are related to the resolution level specified by the user. In terms of the level of effort required to set up the input files, the differences between the two models are enormous. AnnAGNPS is considerably more complex and requires a much longer period of time to setup the model; however, AnnAGNPS does have a suite of utilities to help develop the input file and process the output. As mentioned in Section 2.1.3, the estimated time to develop the input files and run the GWLF model ranges from;: a few days to approximately one week. On the other hand, collecting, formatting, and setting-up all the necessary data for the AnnAGNPS model can take a few months. Another consideration in the use of AnnAGNPS is the time needed to get familiar with the model; in a similar application of AnnAGNPS in a Georgia watershed, it took the investigators approximately eight months just to collect the required data and setup the input data files (Suttles et. al., 2003). >i Model Descriptlons 2-16 Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates 2.3.2 Modeling Land and Stream Processes GWLF and AnnAGNPS simulate land processes (runoff quantity and quality) using similar and standard methods. GWLF applies the algorithms to one unique "land-mass" , or source area, while AnnAGNPS simulates land processes at the cell level. AnnAGNPS is primarily intended for use in agricultural watersheds, and the majority of its algorithms are developed for sediment and pollutant exports from cropland. The implementation of the model in a watershed with diverse land-uses, such as the area encompassed by the proposed Northern Beltway Extension, requires the modification and adjustment of some input variables to mimic urban land uses loading functions as "cropland". GWLF is not intended to simulate in-stream processes, and is thus not considered a fully integrated watershed model (i.e., GWLF does not simulate the quality and quantity of the runoff, and also the fate and transpdrt of the pollutant loads into the river reaches). On the other hand, AnnAGNPS has the capability of routing the flow, sediment, and nutrients through the different reaches' to the watershed outlet. The current version of L AnnAGNPS does not simulate groundwater' flow or return flow to the stream, its `?' applicability is limited to simulating and routing only surface runoff. Another limitation of the in-stream capabilities of AnnAGNPS is that it is applicable only for watersheds in which storm runoff is routed in one day or less. AnnAGNPS uses the SCS curve number approach combined with a 24-hour unit hydrograph routing procedure. Consequently, any in-stream application of AnnAGNPS should be limited to a watershed with a travel time of less than 24 hours. 2.3.3 Model Documentation Any efficient modeling application is highly dependent on the availability of clear and concise documentation. The published GWLF documentation is acceptable and adequate for such a screening-level model. On the other hand, the main limitation in the implementation of AnnAGNPS is the lack of comprehensive and detailed information on key processes and algorithms. While the AnnAGNPS documentation appears to be exhaustive, it is missing detailed information on key processes with respect to how the model simulates land and reach processes. In other words, the AnnAGNPS documentation is incomplete and insufficient for modelers to efficiently and rapidly Model Descriptions 2-17 Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates calibrate and use the model to address management scenarios. The contractor modeling team spent considerable time developing and implementing sensitivity runs to understand the impact of specific variables on key sediment and nutrient outputs. In addition, the model algorithm and utilities contained several bugs and errors, although the majority of these errors were fixed in the release of the latest version of AnnAGNPS in April 2005. a Model Descriptions 2-18 Winston-Saleni • Beltway Pollutant Load Estimatesi 3.0 Modeling Strategy This section describes the available data utilized in the setup of the AnnAGNPS and GWLF input files. The data include information on physiographic characteristics such as streams, soils, topography, land cover types, stream geometry data, existing sources of pollutants within the study area, as well as flow and ambient water quality data. In addition, this section presents the approach selected to calibrate the two models based on the available observed stream flow and water quality data. 3.1 Study Area Delineation This section defines and details the study area where changes in pollutant loading might result from the construction of the Winston-Salem Northern Beltway extension. The first step in this process was to define the-study area based on the identification of waterbodies included on the North Carolina Water Quality Assessment and Impaired Waters List that will potentially be affected by the proposed beltway extension. Additionally, several streams recognized as waters of concern in the Yadkin-Pee Dee River Basinwide Water Quality Plan are also located within the proposed beltway extension Study Area Delineation. The study area was defined by examining the 2002 and 2004 North Carolina Water Quality Assessment and Impaired Waters Lists (Integrated 305(b) and 303(d) Report; DWQ, 2002; 2004), as well as the Yadkin-Pee Dee River Basinwide Water Quality Plan (DWQ, 2003). Waterbodies that were included on the Water Quality Assessment and Impaired Waters Lists, or that were identified as waters of concern in the Yadkin-Pee Dee River Basinwide Water Quality Plan, were analyzed for potential pollutant impacts that may result from the construction of the Winston-Salem Northern Beltway extension. Specific streams of concern included Muddy Creek, Salem Creek, Silas Creek, Mill Creek, Little Creek, Reynolds Creek, Kerners Mill Creek, and the South Fork Muddy Creek. Descriptions of each of the streams of concern are presented below, and are summarized in Tables 3-1 and 3-2. Figure 3-1 presents the locations of the streams of concern. ?? -r r-a W4 Modeling Strategy 3-1 Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates Table 3-1: Summary of 303(d) Listed Streams in Winston-Salem Beltway Study Area Waterbody 303(?;ILi1 tii" 3 )rairment ' t: i Date b t >lm Urban Runoff/Storm Muddy Creek 2004 Biological Sewers Fecal Coliform, Agriculture, Urban Salem Creek 2002, 2004 Turbidity, Biological. Runoff/Storm Sewers Agriculture, Urban Reynolds Creek 2002, 2004 Biological Runoff/Storm Sewers Little Creek 2004 Biological Unknown Table 3-2: Summary of Non-Impaired Waters of Concern In Winston-Salem Beltway Study Area Stormwater runoff; nonpoint Mill Creek Habitat degradation ll ti source po u on Stormwater runoff, nonpoint Silas Creek Habitat degradation ll ti n source po u o Stormwater runoff; nonpoint Kerners Mill Creek Habitat degradation ll ti source po u on Stormwater runoff; nonpoint South Fork Muddy Creek Habitat degradation urce ollution so p Muddy Creek, which flows through the proposed construction area, is listed on the draft 2004 Water Quality Assessment and Impaired Waters List due to impaired biological communities present in the creek. The impaired segment of Muddy Creek extends from the confluence of Muddy Creek and Salem Creek upstream to state road 2995 downstream. Both fish community data and benthic invertebrate data collected in Muddy Creek by DWQ indicate biological impairment. The Yadkin-Pee Dee River Basinwide Water Quality Plan also indicates that elevated nutrients, turbidity, and fecal coliform data were observed in Muddy Creek over a 5-year monitoring period from 1996-2001. The water quality plan attributes the impairment in Muddy Creek primarily to nonpoint source pollution from construction sites and developed areas. Salem Creek, a tributary of Muddy Creek, was listed on the 2002 Water Quality Assessment and Impaired Waters List as impaired due to turbidity and fecal coliform bacteria. The 2002 List also indicates Salem Creek has a "historical listing for sediment Modeling Strategy 3-2 Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates based on biological impairment." The draft 2004 North Carolina Water Quality y? Assessment and Impaired Waters List indicates that Salem Creek has been delisted for turbidity as a result of recent chemical monitoring data, and that a Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) study is currently underway for the fecal coliform impairment. The Yadkin-Pee Dee River Basinwide Water Quality Plan indicates that fecal coliform concentrations in Salem Creek exceeded 400 cfu/100mL in over 20 percent of samples collected between 1996 and 2001. Biological monitoring conducted by DWQ showed the benthic invertebrate community in Salem Creek was rated as `fair' and the fish community was rated as `poor' during biological assessments. The water quality plan also recommends that measures to reduce sedimentation, turbidity, and fecal coliform contamination, as well as habitat restoration measures, be implemented to restore Salem Creek. Reynolds Creek, a tributary of Muddy Creek located in the western section of the study area, was included on the 2002 and draft 2004 Water Quality Assessment and Impaired Waters Lists based on biological surveys that indicated an impaired benthic invertebrate community in the creek downstream of the Sequoia Wastewater Treatment Plant (WWTP). Although the WWTP no longer discharges into Reynolds Creek, the Yadkin- Pee Dee River Basinwide Water Quality Plan indicated that stormwater runoff from the town of Lewisville may be a source of nonpoint source pollution to the creek. The draft 2004 Water Quality Assessment and Impaired Waters List indicates that a stressor identification study will be performed on Reynolds Creek by 2006 in order to determine the primary stressor causing the biological impairment. Little Creek, a tributary of Muddy Creek, is also included on the draft 2004 Water Quality Assessment and Impaired Waters List for biological impairment. The impaired segment of Little Creek extends from its headwaters down to its confluence with Grants Creek. The cause of biological impairment in Little Creek is not currently known, and Little Creek is not listed on the draft 2004 list as one of the streams for which a stressor identification study will be performed by 2006 in order to determine the cause of biological impairment in the creek. Modeling Strategy 3-3 Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates The streams described above were the only waters encompassed by the proposed beltway extension that were included on the 2002 and draft 2004 Water Quality Assessment and Impaired Waters Lists. However, several additional waters were present which were not classified as impaired based on DWQ's most recent use support assessment, but in which the Yadkin-Pee Dee River Basinwide Water Quality Plan indicates that notable water quality impacts have been documented. Mill Creek and Silas Creek, both tributaries of Muddy Creek, are two such waters. The water quality plan states that these streams are likely being impacted by stormwater runoff from the City of Winston-Salem. Fish community data collected in Silas Creek in 2001 indicated that the biological community in the stream was impaired. Silas Creek was resampled in 2002 and received a `Good- Fair' bioclassification, but this higher score may be attributed to drought conditions which temporarily reduced the loading of nonpoint source pollution to the creek. The lower two-thirds of the Mill Creek watershed are also predominantly developed, similar to Silas Creek, making it likely that Mill Creek is experiencing similar problems to those documented in Silas Creek. Kerners Mill Creek and South Fork Muddy Creek are the other streams in which notable water quality impacts have been documented. The Yadkin-Pee Dee River Basinwide Water Quality Plan indicates that habitat degradation has been observed in Kerners Mill Creek, potentially resulting from stormwater runoff from construction sites and developed areas. Similarly, substantial habitat degradation was observed in South Fork Muddy Creek, which borders the City of Winston-Salem and is experiencing increasing development as formerly agricultural lands are built up into residential communities. Figure 3-2 depicts the delineated study area, which encompasses all of the waterbodies described above. The study area is approximately 145,719 acres (228 square miles), and includes sections of Forsyth, Stokes, and Davidson counties. Modeling Strategy 34 Winston-Salern Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates Figure 3-1: Waters of Concern in Proposed Winston-Salem Beltway Extension Study Area I - .r -. _I "± - M Creel • y5 " 5 f r r W Creale ? f ar: 1, - K South Fork Muddy Creels /V3(d) Listed Segments N Waters of Concern wlnston-Salem Beltway wu E Study Area Streams Forsyth County Boundary S Streams . $ 0 6 Age s Modeling Strategy 3-5 Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates Figure 3-2: Delineated Study Area for Pollutant Loading Estimates •I, -'L Y t.. . i• ".? IdQF VFCIipn1 -" r CFeek Spy _ y . ? r Cre South Fork Mud'. Crevk 303(d) Listed Segments N 1a+wlatera of Concern ? J Winston-Salem Beltway 4" Studer Area Streams W E Forsyth County Boundary Delineated Study Area ? Streams t a kvtoo s Modeling Strategy 3-6 :.j 3.2 Climate Data Pollutant loadings and weather data used to simulate the rainfall-runoff dynamics for the two models as well as the pollutant loadings were obtained from the National Climate Data Center (NCDC). These data include meteorological data (hourly precipitation) and surface airways data (including wind speed/direction, ceiling height, dry bulb temperature, dew point temperature, and solar radiation). Data collected at four area weather stations, Greensboro International Airport, Yadkinville, Lexington, and Dalton, were used in pollutant load estimation. The Greensboro International Airport recorded data from 1928 to the present, the Yadkinville weather station recorded data from 1940 to the present, the Lexington weather station recorded data from 1948 to the present, and the Dalton weather station recorded data from 1948 to 1999. For this study, weather data recorded at the area stations were combined based on their location with respect to the study area. This was done in order-to better represent the weather patterns, which may vary in different sections of the study area. Figure 3-3 depicts the location of the weather stations. Section 3.6.2 presents the analysis used in selecting the simulation period as well as the associated rainfall pattern statistics. Figure 3-3: Weather Stations Used in Pollutant Load Estimation fto Mill cm I . ,? l 111 •. . i ? i ? ??2 - ? ??° ( ? no PICIV croak • ?, K.m.rs Mill Croak s' i Oat Crook a 1,• ` i Salnn Crsek [f ,::_ . I r L, 7 ='r V w tip„ ,^.a, / '•/r•.{,I j ?;:' .lC^ SOUK Fork MUM Crook l l; \ ;r• . r-''S,r ?bt. ., ??'',: , ?? .- Mudd Crre4 r P ?. +Y•rlt ?K ? l •?? 1 :?.n,f Yr''., i P ..51 ?„_.. "`f_-", .:; .q.. ? • r ; r' F??i ` J?x. '[ t ,- ,' ?'ry.:. 1 t.t f )•..?.??f :V i\,? '?:.• ''. .?Y• ?•?? ?t •!' -'.,f .. ^ =',?r ? % ,! •j :' ?r :?l r-` ,`r' /, i ',•, , ?y ! t.?~-•l ^•k? :;-e:r•'" .`, , UR ?•• i .• tti.? ' i }.. ?'•..,,,, lY.• J ,?? ? _S.. ` .ifs „.r i• ;! `.+.'•,r:..^ f' S r1 ne/1TM1'__,:: r`? ?rti.•,._ . ?..>,•..Y.}?t .r•?•S V ;= Y• _ J ?'f' ee"1 yY•? ..`..'.i t•`-?a'iRi 1. r •? 4 , • } ?•.\ .s^' ,'!f _. t ? ? xr '; t• a'i"• I ,r.G. ;`?l," i' . t,_l, w Modeling Strategy 3-7 Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates 3.3 Soils The characteristics of the soils within the study area were used as input for the two models. The characterization of the soils distribution was performed using the State Soil Geographic (STATSGO) dataset developed by the Natural Resource Conservation Service. There are five general soil associations present within the study area: Cecil- Hiwassee-Pacolet, Pacolet-Madison-Cecil, Mecklenburg-Iredell-Enon, Wilkes-Pacolet- Enon, and Urban Land-Cecil-Enon. The majority of the soils in the study are comprised of the Cecil-Hiwassee-Pacolet and Urban Land-Cecil-Enon soil associations. The distribution of soils in the study area is presented in Table 3-3 and Figure 3-4. Table 3-3: Soil Types and Characteristics Map Unit ib , Soil gssoclatlon Percent of Study Area Hydrologic Soil Group NC074 Cecil-Hiwassee-Pacolet 71.4 B/C NC075 Pacolet-Madison-Cecil 1.0 B/C NC086 Mecklenburg-Iredell-Enon 3.0 B/C NC087 Wilkes-Pacolet-Enon 0.4 B/C/D NC 110 Urban Land-Cecil-Enon 24.2 B/C The predominant hydrological soils group classifications for each soil association are also presented in Table 3-3. The hydrologic soil groups represent the different levels of infiltration capacity of the soils (Table 3-4). Hydrologic soil group "A" designates soils that are well to excessively well drained, whereas hydrologic soil group "D" designates soils that are poorly drained. The study area contains soils with moderate to slow infiltration rates, as designated by hydrologic soil groups "B" and "C". Modeling Strategy 3-8 Table 3-4: Descriptions of Hydrologic Soil Groups Winston-Salem Northern Beltway PPollutant Load Estirnates:? 3.4 Topography A 30-meter digital elevation model (DEM) obtained from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) was used to characterize the topography of the study area. Elevation in the study area ranged from 570 to 1,080 feet above mean sea level, with an average watershed elevation of 825 feet above mean sea level. The DEM was also needed for the segmentation of the watershed necessary to implement the AnnAGNPS model. The Ann.AGNPS segmentation of the study area is described in Section 4.2 and detailed steps of the segmentation are presented in Appendix A. Modeling Strategy 3-9 Fieure 34: Soils Distribution in Study Area Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates 3.5 Stream Geometry Stream geometry data were collected at 140 transects throughout the study area in order to assist in modeling efforts and to better characterize the waterbodies of concern. The AnnAGNPS model requires input information on stream geometry and specifically the relationships between reach drainage areas and the bankfull reach depths and widths. The data collected included measurements of bankfull channel height, width, and side slopes at each station, as well as measurements of the wetted channel height, width, and side slopes for all stations. To insure that the measured stream channel reaches and the corresponding hydraulic regressions were representative of the entire study area, the study area was delineated into five major sub-basins. In each of these sub-basins, channel measurements were taken at representative reaches of the mainstem before and after the confluence of all major tributaries, as well as at representative reaches of all major tributaries. The location of the stream geometry data collection transects is presented in Figure 3-5. Additional details regarding the transect data and measurements and the bankfull hydraulic geometry relationships generated are presented in Appendix B. Modeling Strategy 3-10 M d CD C •d 13 O 2 Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates 3.6 Existing Land Cover Conditions Existing land cover conditions within the study area were characterized using the 1 g9 , North Carolina Statewide Land Cover dataset developed by the North Carolina Center for Geographic Information and Analysis. The distribution of land cover in the study area using this dataset is presented in Table 3-5. Forested lands (53.5%), agricultural lands (30.3%) and developed lands (14.5%), all account for a significant portion of the land cover distribution in the study area. Figure 3-6 depicts the existing land cover distribution within the watershed. Forested lands are dispersed relatively evenly throughout the watershed. Cultivated lands (i.e., cropland) and managed herbaceous cover (i.e., pastureland managed for livestock grazing) are also generally present throughout the study area, expect in the City of Winston-Salem. The majority of the developed lands are-located in the central section of the study area, and are associated with the City of Winston-Salem. Table 3-5: Existing Land Cover Conditions in Study Area Low-intensi' Develo ed 10267.4 7.0 Developed Hi -intensity Developed 10839.4 7.4 Mired Hardwoods/Conifers 3739.9 2.6 Mixed U land Hardwoods 68403.0 46.9 Mountain Conifers 13.2 0.01 Forested Othei`Broadleaf Ever een Forests 6.8 0.005 Other Needleleaf Deciduous Forests 14.7 0.01 Southern Yellow Pine' 5817.2 4.0 ' Deciduous Shrubland 973.9 0.7 hrubland Evergreen Shrubland 382.2 0.3 Cultivated 2464.4 1.7 ana'ed.Herbaceous Cover 40508.4 27.8 Agricultural Unconsolidated Sediment 65.9 0.05 Unmanaged Herbaceous Upland 1140.3 0.8 Water Bodies 848.0 0.6 Water Bottomland Forest/ Hardwood Swamps 234.4 0.2 Total 145,719 100 Appendix C 3-12 Va..,,,.o 't_K. F.vicfinv Conditions Land Cover Distribution 4 f ? 1? •. . ; r K ,' # ??-• * yC, a . ?- t. Study Area. Vrearns Forsyth County Boundary Winston-Salem BeftwaY Land UsefUUW Cover asap r}roJ eurx) Nodti 1Caro 161 t, ca = Wafer Bodies F??-,e 1 High intensity Developed ? ? ° ? arras L.ovr Intensity Developed Deciduous Forest Evergreen Fomt Mad Forest N Cuffiwated Unmanaged Herbaceous Upland w ? E Managed Herbaceous Cover Unconsaldabed Sedtrnert MorN and Forest l'ardwood Swamps Appendix C 3-13 Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates 3.7 Projected Land Cover Scenarios Land cover projections were developed for the study area in order to evaluate the potential impacts of the construction of the Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Extension on pollutant loadings under future scenarios. Two future scenarios were examined; the projected land cover distribution in the year 2015 without the construction of the beltway extension (the no-build scenario), and the 2015 projected land cover distribution with the constructed Northern Beltway Extension (the build-out scenario). Projected land cover data was developed based on the Indirect and Cumulative Impact Assessment study conducted for the Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Project, as well as the Forsyth County Growth Management Plan that was developed by the Winston-Salem/Forsyth County City-County Planning Board in 2001 as part of its comprehensive Legacy Plan. 3.7.1 Indirect and Cumulative Impact Assessment Study The Indirect and Cumulative Impact Assessment study was conducted to address potential direct and indirect cumulative impacts resulting from the construction of the Northern Beltway Extension. The Piedmont Triad regional travel model was used to assign impacts to specific areas (traffic analysis zones) and to evaluate changes in land use and development resulting from the beltway construction, as well as future growth changes in the absence of the Northern Beltway Extension. Results of the analysis indicated that future growth generally followed the patterns specified under the Legacy Plan. Additionally, the study estimated that construction of the Northern Beltway would have 'minimal effect on overall residential development" (i.e., less than a five percent residential development increase as compared to the no-build scenario for all traffic analysis zones examined). However, the study also identified some areas, particularly around interchanges of the proposed beltway, where commercial and some residential development would increase in response to the beltway's construction. 3.7.2 Winston-Salem Comprehensive Legacy Plan The Forsyth County Growth Management Plan and Legacy Plan were developed as tools to help manage growth and control urban sprawl, create more compact and efficient development patterns, make more efficient use of existing developed land, and preserve open space and rural character in the county. To this end, the Growth Management Plan Appendix C 3-14 • fanning areas: 1) municipal services areas, divided Forsyth County into three major p town centers, and which of Winston-Salem as well as urban boulevards, of currently other dinceveludeloped the City activity owth areas, which centers; 2) attire ? e residential, lands that have been identified as °p rural areas ities 9 for which futuare to remain undeveloped and; 3) commercial, and industrial development, character of the area. undeveloped in order to preserve the rural NPS Model Land Cover Projections aforementioned studies, projected land 3.7.3 AnnAG growth projections established by th ollutant impacts Using the GNPs model to estimate p or use in the AnnA cover was developed f future scenarios. Land cover under these scenarios was under the no-build and build-out rspondence with the Forsyth County S Legacy P model ;a ear 2015 in projected for the y ven to the specific format in which the AnnAG the existing conditions ' particular attention was gi comparative purposes, For GNPs land required the input land cover data. re 3-7. The projected AnnA d data is presented in Figu e 3-9The projected AnnAGNPS land cover enario is presented in Figure resented in Figure 3-9• As cover under the no-buil future the sc build -out future scenario is p 1 Y? area AnnAGNPS land cover un -:':`?? - the eatest focus of land development ?'? on--Salem and at evidenced in Figure 3-8, gr the vic of Winst -build scenari o was predicted to be in m1tY Legacy Plan. Similar under the no the Forsyth County o (Figure ;_. Centers" specified in 3-9); the "Metro Activity were predicted under the build-out scenari patterns of land developme and residential development additionally, was predicted around th proposed erc?al an comm beltway interchanges under this scenario. designation le land cover GNPS model generates a sing should be noted that the AnnA classification for that cell. Itthe dominant land cover ..-_ a for each model cell representing land cover generating the no-build and build -out projected sat the scale Therefore, the objective In e condition to create a reasonable estimation of the likely a scale finer than that of coverages was project land cover a the AnnP,GNPS model cells, and not to act Assessment of should be noted that the Indirect and Cumulative id-out scenario is these cells. It also - ro ected land cover under the much of this development would likely study results indicated that although p J e 3 9, expected to develop as specified in Figure 3-15 Appendix C occur with or without the beltway's construction (Figure 3-8). The pollutant impacts modeled under the build-out scenario likely would not all result from the beltway's construction, since much of this development was predicted to occur under the no-build land cover projection. Therefore, the pollutant loading impact of constructing the Winston-Salem Northern Beltway extension was quantified as the sediment, nitrogen, and phosphorus loads estimated under the build-out projection scenario, minus the loads estimated under the no-build projection scenario. 3.7.4 GWLF Model's Use of Land Cover Projections The no-build and build-out future land cover projections were also modeled using the GWLF model. Unlike the AnnAGNPS model, which required the land cover data to be input for each specific model-cell, GWLF is a simple lumped-parameter model in which the land cover conditions are input to the model by specifying the number of hectares present of each land cover type, without respect to the spatial distribution of the land cover types within the study area. Therefore, the number of hectares of each land cover type (forest, cropland, pasture, high,, intensity development, and low intensity development) were calculated from the Ann.AGNPS projected land cover scenarios (Figures 3-8 and 3-9) and input into the GWLF model. This insured concordance among the modeling systems with respect to the no-build and build-out land cover projections, and also simplified the development ,of the pollutant loading estimates generated by GWLF for the projected land cover scenarios. Additional details regarding the development of the no-build and build-out projected land cover scenarios are presented in Appendix C. Appendix C 3-16 co T- A b O v a z 0 V b 'o W N O N b O _f M Ai L? l G Al R? W 4F c ?J z ? ? ca G 7 y CL yQCL?:?nn11 y+ IL W G I i ILUt? fLu_ ?s cL z 0 ? J D 00 u6 rry • • 44t 111/// O t r{f V C M ?C two ?.. x 3ti J ul w_ zc? C m I i`11 0 U b a h CI O b O U on W d ?I 14 i r - ?% ?,y _ - !rte ? K :o C ?. 44 as M 0 b 0 U b a .o in 0 N b ?O1 C? M 6i F.I A F7, i ' v h W s y G C ?. a , E " u E E ? ? I.J C ? 9 W C A 4 Q Y 21? v.-.4 `? • ?1 L--+ C '?' J a 4 y 4 L Q C ate. 6 7 10 i 11111 ro rw 2 ry. Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates 3.8 Permitted Point Sources Eleven permitted facilities are located within the study area boundaries (Figure 3-10). The name, permit number, design flow, and receiving waterbody of each facility are summarized in Table 3-6. Three of these facilities discharge directly into waterbodies of concern for pollutant impacts from the proposed beltway extension, including the largest facility, the Elledge WWTP. Three additional facilities discharge to tributaries of the waterbodies of concern. Table 3-6: Summary of NPDES Permitted Facilities Located in the Study Area {}yyy? w , ?.f ¦ r? r 5 2Y Y L ?llt?',1Va rne i? d ? r? 1 i. 3 } 1 1?eceiyIg*ster>ody . 'i? 4 t; : }, G }} hlk' 4 ?.t Y? lJf ,f t Rd. Yl\ Ir 5FF4?l\, '.ffi } / ,4, tE 1 fh''f 4 N00086011 Winston-Salem City/ 0.50 UT Muddy Creek Neilson WTP N00051489 Three R'S Mobile Home 0.012 Leak Creek Pik N00057223 Head Mobile Home Park 0.0016 UT Little Creek N00037834 Winston-Salem Elledge 30.0 Salem Creek WWTP N00080853 Lucent Technologies Inc[ 0.301 UT Salem Creek Salem Business Park N00079821 Winston-Salem - R.A. 0.00 Salem Creek Thomas WTP N00057509 Sequoia WWTP 0.135 Reynolds Creek N00085871 Flakt Products Inc. , 0.086 Brushy Fork N00085138 . , Lowes Foods 0.014 UT Smith Creek NCO061204 Scarleft-Acres MHP 0.02 UT Mill Creek N00055093 R.J. Reynolds - 0.00 Barkers Creek TobaccoVille mgd: million gallons per day Appendix C 3-20 ?. ".1141 1. ^ JTJVHMr'MJ6MrM-Azk1M- 111M Figure 3-10: Location of Permitted Facilities in Study Area iNCOMM =?• N00061204 a ' N00004707 NC0004707 N00087509 ' 1 N00085871 NCOOGS138 M00067223 N0007®621 r :+ NC008E011Z Nt00A0989 } :.?.: ,.ir •y ; 'x, NCO037834 i_ .» - `. -' }•. r r t - - .- •. .,...•• NG0061489 , , 3.9 Agricultural Pollutant Sources Information regarding crops, livestock, and conservation practices within Forsyth County and the Winston-Salem study area was obtained from the Forsyth County Farm Service Agency, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) National Agricultural Statistics Service, and the Purdue University Conservation Technology Information Center. These data were used and incorporated in the development of the Ann.AGNPS input file; the GWLF model did not require and could not ii=rporate such information. Because the vast majority of the study area lies within Forsyth County, area-adjusted agricultural information for the County was used to develop the AnnAGNPS input file. The most recent available data were used; data from the Forsyth County Farm Service Agency were available for 2004, and data from the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service and the Conservation Technology Information Center were available for 2002. Appendix C 3-21 Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates) 3.9.1 Pasture and Crop Estimates The Forsyth County Farm Service Agency estimates that 18,047 acres within Forsyth County are in agricultural production as either row crops, pasture lands, or the production of hay. Approximately half (9,400 acres) of this land is used as pasture or to produce hay, while the remaining (8,647 acres) land is used to produce row crops. Crops produced in Forsyth County include tobacco, soybeans, corn, small grains, and various produce crops. The row crops produced and agricultural land cover types present in Forsyth County are summarized in Table 3-7. Table 3-7: Summary of Row Crop Production and Land cover, Types in Forsyth County, NC 'S5 7 n 1 6 .n } S T4 \ -.'L7n( x ??y?U ?f1 it 1 4L '.t 1u ' Pasture 7,000 Hay 2,400 Tobacco 1,647 Soybeans 200 Corn 1,500 Small Grains 2,300 Produce Crops 600 Total 18,047 Source: Forsyth County >F "arm Service Agency' 3.9.2 Conservation and 'Crop Management Practices Data regarding conservation and crop management practices were obtained from the Purdue University Conservation Technology Information Center and the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service. The USDA agricultural census data indicated that approximately 13,644 acres in Forsyth County were treated with commercial fertilizer in 2002, and that manure spreading occurred on 866 acres in Forsyth County that same year. Additionally, the 2002 census data indicated that 537 acres used for agricultural production within the County were irrigated. Data were also obtained from the Conservation Technology Information Center that quantified conservation tillage practices within Forsyth County. These data are summarized in Table 3-8. Appendix C 3-22 LVI • MORIM, BKO-111 Table 3-8: Summarv of Tillage Conservation Practices in Forsyth County, NC ., griculturaX Land Dover ? I -;C?f t x alb' Othe>P Tlge 1 i{'eti`es ('acres`) Y , T e '' , t end ?eifi >daly' 1 Tobacco 0 0 1,198 Soybeans (Full Season) 905 107 488 Soybeans (Double Cropped) 600 0 900 Corn 456 24 1,221 Small Grains (Spring Seeded) 0 0 650 Small Grains (Fall Seeded) 88 0 1,712 Total 2,049 131 6,169 Source: Conservation Technology Research Center it should be noted that there are some small discrepancies between the number of Forsyth County acres in production for various crops (Table 3-7) and the number of acres in the County that are presented in the summary of conservation tillage practices (Table 3-8). This is due to the fact that the data presented in Table 3-7 were estimates for 2004, while the most recent available conservation tillage data from the Conservation Technology Research Center were from 2002. There is a general decreasing trend in agricultural production within Forsyth County,' corresponding to increases in urbanization and residential development in the Winston-Salem area. Therefore, it is logical that the conservation tillage data from 2002, show slightly higher numbers of acres in production for the various crops than the Forsyth County Farm Service Agency data for 2004. 3.9.3 Livestock Estimates Livestock can be a potential source of nutrients within a watershed. In this section, we present the approach used to estimate the spatial distribution of nutrient production from the livestock within the watershed. These application rates were included in the AnnAGNPS model to incorporate the nutrient source from livestock. The nutrient produced by the livestock within each subbasin was assumed to be uniformly applied on pasture acres within each respective subbasin. The livestock estimates for Forsyth County were obtained from the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service. The most Appendix C 3-23 Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates recent available agricultural census data were collected in 2002. Cattle, horses, goats, sheep, and lambs all reside within Forsyth County. Estimates for each livestock type are summarized in Table 3-9. Table 3-9: Livestock Estimates for Forsyth County, NC Cattle and Calves 5,771 Horses and Ponies 1,715 Goats 763, Sheep and Lambs 262 Source: USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service 3.9.4 Livestock Nutrient Production Estimates Using the USDA livestock estimates (Table 3-9) cows were identified as the most commonly occurring livestock within the county and therefore were considered the main source of livestock nutrient loadings. Beef cattle ;comprised 47% of the 5,771 cows in Forsyth County, while dairy cattle comprised; of less than 7% of the total number of cows. The remaining 46% of cattle were not; identified by the USDA livestock estimates as either beef or dairy cattle. Because there were only 13 dairy farms in Forsyth County, nutrient loadings were only estimated from farms beef cattle, and not from dairy farms. The study area was divided into. several subbasins (Figure 3-11) and livestock estimates were developed for each subbasin. The county livestock numbers were refined from the county level to the subbasin level by first using the livestock estimates for each zip code within the county. Using ArcGIS, the zip code layer was ` clipped to each subbasin boundary. Using this calculated area, estimates for the number of cows in each subbasin were determined. The location of the cattle within the subbasin was assumed to be within the cells that are within areas with pasture as the dominant land cover. The mass of phosphorus and nitrogen produced by each feedlot was estimated using the production rate per head of cattle per day, based on waste production estimates complied from the North Carolina Nutrient Management Database on Forsyth County. The Appendix C 3-24 production rate used for phosphorous was 0.38 lbs/day/animal and for nitrogen was 0.23 lbs/day/animal. The manure application rates were incorporated into the AnnAGNPS input file. Estimated nitrogen and phosphorous production and manure application rates for each subbasin are presented in Appendix D. 3.10 Septic Systems Failing and aging septic systems are also a potential source of nutrients in the watershed. In this section, the approach used to derive the potential nutrient loads from failing septic systems is presented. Such information was included in the AnnAGNPS input file. There are no readily available data on the total number of septic systems in the watershed. 3-25 Appendix C Y Figure 3-11: Subbasins within the Study Area Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates Using the U.S. Census Bureau housing characteristics data the total number of housing units was estimated, and it was determined whether these housing units were connected to a public sewer or to a septic system. The U.S. Census Bureau data was also reviewed to establish the population growth rates and to determine the number of houses in each city within the watershed as well as the age of the houses. The aerial percentage of each city comprising the watershed was estimated to determine the proportion of houses on sewage and septic systems within each sub-basin. Figure 3-12 depicts the distribution of septic systems in the watershed and Appendix E presents the details of the approach and assumptions used to derive this distribution. Figure 3-12: Distribution of Septic Systems in the Study Area Hale Clem m Cuu-tgloundry Murihern p. qr- M51k? Qa-5a 60 - lag ®aaa-250 ISO -200 200-250 goo 250 -300 300-350 0 asa -4a0 400 -500 590-550 Appendix C 3-26 •. .. ol" MW • 3.10.1 Failed Septic Systems Once the number of septic systems for each subbasin was determined, the number of households with failing septic systems was estimated. According to the U.S. Census Bureau data cataloging the age of houses, approximately 62% of households in Forsyth County are more than 20 years old. These aging households are assumed to have the highest septic system failure rate. Consequently, 62 percent of the septic systems within each subbasin have the potential of leaking. We estimated the total waste flow produced by each septic system using an average of 2.3 people living in each house and a flow of 60 gallons per day, per person (USEPA 2002). Also, according to the USEPA, on average, 1/3 of the daily flow from a failing septic system leaks out into a stream. Appendix E details the results of this analysis, including the nutrient loads by subbasin from failing septic systems. The results of this analysis indicate that nutrient loads from potentially failing septic systems do not constitute a major contribution to nutrient loadings, however, they were included in the AnnAGNPS modeling scheme. 3.11 Observed Stream flow and Water. Quality Data a The availability of usable stream flow and water `quality data is essential for the calibration of the two models. Calibration consists of comparing observed data and simulated output, and using model-diagnosis tools to show that the models are capable of reproducing the existing loading conditions and hence can make predictions and answer "what-if' questions. As discussed in Section 2.3, the two tools used in this study are pollutant-loading models as compared with in-stream water quality models. This means that neither model simulates the fate and transport of pollutants within the stream, For instance, GWLF is exclusively a loading model designed to assess pollutant export loads within a watershed. Pollutant export loads refers to simulating the load transport to the edge-of-stream (EOS) without simulating the fate and transport of these loads in the different reaches. AnnAGNPS is also a pollutant-loading model; however, in AnnAGNPS the EOS loads are calculated on a much finer scale, referred to in the model as a land-segment. Ann.AGNPS does have a flow routin r 'it ines however as discussed in Section 2.3, the pollutant routing is extremely weak and the model strictly outnuts_ pollutant loads at the outlet of the watershed or at reach outlets specified in the input file. The best way to calibrate these models is to use observed pollutant loads (i.e., flow and Appendix C 3-27 Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates concentration values measured simultaneously). Consequently, in this section we first present the available data used in the model calibrations. We also present other available water quality data, which were not used in this study. These data would be extremely valuable for the calibration of specific instream water-quality models, but were unable to be utilized in this study because there were no corresponding flow data with which to generate pollutant loads from the measured concentrations. 3.11.1 Stream flow Data Calibration Period Selection The implementation of hydrologic simulation models such as GWLF and AnnAGNPS is highly dependent upon an adequate simulation of the resulting runoff, which drives other simulated variables such as sediment, nitrogen, and phosphorus loads. Analysis of available USGS stream flow data indicates that no current flow data are available on streams located within the study area. However, historic flow data exist at three gages within the study area. Flow data exist at USGS station 02115856, Salem Creek near 4, r Atwood, from 1975 to 1982. However, due to the considerable recent growth that has occurred in Forsyth County and the Winston-Salem area, flow data collected in the 1970's and early 1980's are likely not reflective of the current conditions. More recent flow data exist at two additional USGS gages. Daily flow data are available from January 1988 to August 1991 at USGS station 02115860 on the mainstem Muddy Creek near Muddy Creek, NC, and at USG station 02115&OO, on? the South Fork Muddy Creek near Clemmons NC. These flow observations are the best data to use for the hydrology calibration of the two models and dictate the simulation period to use for calibration (January 1988 to August 1991). After the identification of the simulation span for the calibration, it is necessary to analyze the annual rainfall pattern within this period. In fact, the intent of watershed-scale models such as GWLF and AnnAGNPS is not to predict the response of the watershed for a short period of days or weeks, but rather to simulate the long-term response of the system derived using long-term simulations spanning several years or more. This long-term annual average response is the indirect result of the annual rainfall pattern. Consequently, it is important that the selected simulation period include dry, wet, and average hydrologic years. Table 3-10 shows the rainfall pattern observed at the Greensboro rainfall station between 1988 and 1991. The long-term annual average rainfall from the period 1948 to 2004 is 42.3 inches. Appendix C 3-28 ky,TIMMOM Consequently, our simulation period includes a below-average dry year (1998), two average years (1990 and 1991) and an above-average wet year (1989). Coincidentally the annual average rainfall during the simulation period (42.8 inches) matches the long-term annual average in the study area (42.3 inches). The analysis of the rainfall pattern at the three other stations indicates the same pattern depicted in Table 3-10. Tahlp -3-10: Annual Average Rainfall in the Study Area i J y,- O a r K HY 1988 35.2 Dry 1989 50.6 Wet 1990 43.5 Average 1991 41.8 Average Annual Average 1988-1991 42.8 Average The other constraint is the location of the existing flow data. This is important when specifying the areas drained at these locations in the model input files. Consequently, for each model two input files were developed for the flow and pollutant load calibration; one for the South Fork Muddy Creek drainage basin, and one input file to simulate the remainder of the watershed as depicted in Figure 3-13. Appendix C 3-29 Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates Figure 3-13: Location of USGS Flow Gages within Study Area USGS02115900 C1SGS02 195860 South Fork Muddy =' . Muddy Creek nr Creek nr Clem mans, NC Muddy Creek, NC 3.11.2 Ambient Water Quality Data The main observation from the assessment of all the ambient water quality data available in the study area is the scarcity of recent and simultaneous observed flow data and in- stream concentrations. It is necessary to analyze and use any existing observed flow and water quality data to develop existing sediment and nutrient loads necessary for the calibration of the models. The developers of the GWLF and AnnAGNPS models claim that such models do not usually require calibration. However, we believe that every model needs some type of verification, to insure that it is capable of reproducing the watershed response in terms of quantity (runoff) and quality (pollutant loads). This section presents an analysis of the existing water quality data and proposes an approach to develop the sediment and nutrient existing-conditions loads. Although several agencies collected instream sediment and nutrient data in Forsyth County, the only sets of data that have observations for flow and water quality data with which to generate observed pollutant loads are from USGS. Before presenting the USGS Appendix C 3-30 • . • . • ,,. data and its use in the development of existing-conditions pollutant loads, we briefly discuss data available from other state and local agencies. 3.11.2.1 North Carolina Division of Water Quality Monitoring Data The North Carolina Division of Water Quality (DWQ) monitors streams throughout North Carolina for a variety of chemical parameters. DWQ conducts ambient monitoring at two stations within the study area. Monitoring station Q2510000 is located on Salem Creek at the Elledge Wastewater Treatment Plant (WWTP) in Winston-Salem. Monitoring station Q2600000 is located on the Muddy Creek mainstem at state road 2995, near Muddy Creek NC. However, the data collected by DWQ cannot be used in this study since no observed flow data were collected during the surveys. These, water quality data are very valuable for the calibration of in-stream water-quality models, and to identify violations of North Carolina water quality standards, which is the main 1 ' j mission of DWQ. Additional information regarding the DWQ water quality data is presented in Appendix F. 3.11.2.2 Forsyth County Water Quality Monitoring.Data The Forsyth County Environmental Affairs Department (EAD) has developed a countywide water quality-monitoring program that serves as an informational database to assess the impact of urban growth and other activities. Beginning in 1996, EAD contracted with the Environmental Quality Institute (EQI) at the University of North Carolina-Asheville to perform the laboratory analysis and provide an annual summary for samples collected by the department at 12 sites throughout the county, including eight stations located on the streams of concern previously identified in this section. Streams are monitored eight times `annually with the aim of obtaining equal samples from base flow (no rain in more than 72 hours) and storm flow (attempting to sample within the first 2 hours of a storm event with greater than 0.1 inch of rainfall) conditions. Water quality data was collected from September 1996 to June 2002. However, during these surveys, EAD did not collect stream flow observations, thus these data could not be used to develop observed pollutant loads. Additional information regarding the EAD data is presented in Appendix F. Appendix C 3-31 Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates 3.11.3 USGS Observed Stream flow and Pollutant Loads Data The USGS ambient water quality data was collected at seven stations on streams in the study area identified as waters of concern, including three stations on Salem Creek, two stations on the Muddy Creek mainstem, one station on Silas Creek, and one station on the South Fork Muddy Creek. Table 3-11 summarizes the existing water quality data as well as any flow data collected at each respective station. Only three stations specified in Table 3-11 have observed stream flow as well as sediment and nutrient observed load data: Muddy Creek near Muddy Creek (USGS 02115860), South Fork Muddy Creek near Clemmons (USGS 02115900), and Salem Creek near Atwood (USGS 02115856). At these three locations, the' USGS recorded in-stream sediment, total nitrogen, and total phosphorus concentrations. Appendix C 3-32 Winston-Salem • Pollutant Load Estimates I 4.0 Model Application This section presents and describes the setup and calibration of the GWLF and AnnAGNPS models, and the pollutant loading estimates generated by these models under the existing conditions and projected land cover scenarios. The GWLF and AnnAGNPS models were set up and calibrated for hydrology, as well as sediment, nitrogen, and phosphorus loadings by comparing model output to observed pollutant loading data. Pollutant loading estimates were generated for three scenarios; the existing land cover conditions, projected land cover conditions in the year 2015 in the absence of the Northern Beltway construction (no-build scenario), and projected land cover conditions in 2015 with the construction of the beltway extension (build-out scenario). 4.1 GWLF Model 4.1.1 GWLF Input File Generation The GWLF model requires three input files, including a weather input file (Weather.dat) a transport input file (Transport.dat), and a nutrient input file (Nutrient.dat). The weather input file requires daily precipitation data expressed in centimeters, and daily temperature data expressed in degrees Celsius. The weather input file requires a minimum of 12 months of data, and the data must begin in April and end in March of the following year. The transport and nutrient input.files require specification of input parameters relating to hydrology, erosion, and sediment yield. In general, Appendix B of the GWLF technical guidance manual (Haith et al., 1992) served as the primary source of guidance in developing input parameters. Runoff curve numbers and USLE erosion factors are specified as an average value for a given source area. The existing and projected land cover classifications present in the study area (Sections 3.6 and 3.7) were used to define model source areas. A total of 16 source areas were defined in modeling the land cover conditions in the study area. As necessary, GIS analyses were employed to obtain area- weighted parameter values for each given source area. Runoff curve numbers were developed for each model source area in the study area based on values published in the NRCS Technical Release 55 (MRCS, 1986). STATSGO soils Model Application 4-1 Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates GIS coverages were analyzed to determine the dominant soil hydrologic groups for each model source area. Evapotranspiration cover coefficients were developed based on values provided in the GWLF manual (Haith et al., 1992) for each model source area. Average watershed monthly evapotranspiration cover coefficients were computed based on an area-weighted method. Initialization and groundwater hydrology parameters were. set to default values recommended in the GWLF manual. USLE factors for soil erodibility (K), length-slope (LS), cover and management (C), and supporting practice (P) were derived from multiple sources based on data availability. KLSCP factors were obtained from the NRCS National Resources Inventory (NRI) database when available for model source areas. Otherwise, average KLSCP values for model source areas were determined based on GIS analysis of soils and topographic coverages, and literature review. The rainfall erosivity coefficient was determined from values given in the GWLF manual. The sediment delivery ratio was computed directly in the GWLF model interface. Developed lands include impervious surfaces that are not subject to soil erosion. However, sediment loads''from developed lands result from the buildup and washoff of solids deposited on the surface. Therefore, sediment loads from developed lands were not modeled using the LISLE. ' Instead, sediment loads from developed lands were computed based on typical loading rates from developed lands (Horner et al., 1994). Nutrient loads were computed based on land cover, geology, and soils data characterized in previous sections, as well as groundwater nitrogen, and soil phosphorus values contained in the `;GWLF manual. Loads were determined by applying a dissolved coefficient to surface runoff calculations, and by applying a sediment coefficient to the load from each agricultural source area. Nutrient loads originating from urban sources were modeled in GWLF as solid-phase, using exponential accumulation and washoff functions contained in the model. Nutrient loadings resulting from the application of fertilizer to urban residential areas were accounted for using typical nitrogen and phosphorus loading rates for developed lands (Reckhow, 1980). Groundwater Model Application 4-2 ?. ... ,. contributions to stream nutrient loads were calculated using dissolved phosphorus coefficients for shallow groundwater that were obtained from the GWLF manual. 4.1.2 GWLF Hydrology Calibration GWLF was originally developed as a planning tool for estimating nutrient and sediment loadings on a watershed basis. Designers of the model intended for it to be implemented without calibration. Nonetheless, comparisons were made between predicted and observed stream flow collected in the study area to ensure the general validity of the model. Daily stream flow data were available at two stations in the study area from 1988 to 1991; more recent stream flow data were not available for the study area because the USGS gauging stations at which these data were collected were removed in 1991. Observed stream flow data collected at USGS stations 02115860 (Muddy Creek near Muddy Creek, NC) and 02115900 (South Fork Muddy Creek near Clemmons, NC) were used to calibrate the GWLF model. The groundwater seepage coefficient, baseflow recession coefficient, and unsaturated zone available water capacity were adjusted using an iterative approach in order to obtain a best fit with observed data. Figure 4-1 shows the location of the USGS flow gages within the study area. y y,.?;c c Model Application 4-3 Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates Figure 4-1: Location of USGS Flow Gages within Study Area A , •s J - 1 • .. • 11 Duddy Creek rw Muddy Creek, NC •i r t r. t,. 1 3 1' USGS Flow Data N Winston-Salem Beltway ? Study Area Streams W ? E Forsyth County Boundary YI( .. Delineated Study Area ? 'Streams 5Ibe m Model Application 44 JWJ • • i • • .`. Results of the hydrology calibrations for the South Fork Muddy Creek and Muddy Creek are presented in Figures 4-2 and 4-3. The stream flow calibration statistics for each calibration are presented in the figures, and are also presented in Table 4-1. Total flow volume was over-predicted by approximately 15 percent at the South Fork Muddy Creek calibration gage, and by approximately 19 percent at the Muddy Creek mainstem calibration gage. R2 values indicate that GWLF model flow predictions generally explained approximately 50-60 percent of the variation in observed flows at the USGS gage stations. Table 4-1: Hydrology Calibration Statistics for Study Area ?? ?? ?B?IO?I ?A ,?, ^g e t+'u h t g .S ?t ?ti U (" !r t,a i l4' ?4utn''. South Fork Muddy Creek 1988-1991 0.50 y = 1.1587x Muddy Creek mainstem 1988 -:1991 0.58 y = 1.1959x Figure 4-2: Hydrology Calibration Results for South Fork Muddy Creek 30- " E 25 v y =1.1587x 3 20 0 R2 = 0.50 LL 15 V d 75 CI) 10 5 0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Observed Flow (cm) Model Application 4-5 Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates Figure 4-3: hydrology Calibration Results for Mainstem Muddy Creek 30 E 25----- Y 1.1 959X C 20 RZ = 0.58 p? 15 tl? ? ? 10 E N 5 0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Observed Flow (cm) 4.1.3 GWLF Water Quality Calibration Comparisons were also made between predicted sediment and nutrient values and observed water quality data collected in the study area in order to evaluate the ability of the GWLF model to simulate observed pollutant concentrations. As indicated in Section 3.0, water quality data. collected at USGS stations 02115860 and 02115900 were used in the water quality calibration in order to generate observed existing conditions pollutant loads. Comparisons between observed and predicted loadings were developed for sediment, total nitrogen, and total phosphorus for both the South Fork Muddy Creek and the Muddy Creek mainstem. 4.1.3.1 Sediment Calibration In order to develop daily sediment loading estimates using the available data, a regression equation was developed based on the observed relationship between stream hydrology and sediment loading (Figure 3-14). This regression equation was applied to the daily stream flow data collected on the South Fork Muddy Creek and the Muddy Creek mainstem in order to generate daily sediment loads, based on the observed stream flow. These results were compared to the GWLF model output in order to evaluate the ability of GWLF to predict observed sediment loadings. Model Application 4-6 :. Results of the sediment calibrations for the South Fork Muddy Creek and Muddy Creek . are presented in Figures 4-4 and 4-5. The calibration statistics for each canbvrVaa ono e e presented in the figures, and are also presented in Table 4-2. Total calibration gage, predicted by approximately 22 percent at the South Fork Muddy Creek and under-predicted by approximately 58 percent at the Muddy Creek mainstem calibration gage. R2 values indicate that GWLF model sediment predictions generally the ex lained approximately 60 percent of the variation in sediment loading observed at p USGS gage stations. Table 4-2: Sediment Calibration Statistics for Study Area L?'?H r? ?.A? k??dw. 77? ^?5 4y1 ihM %? 't jll r?'?/Iln{f. A. .'SF kb.. ,•' .r. .. .. y - 1 .2/+45x 0.59 1988-1991 South Fork Muddy Creek 0.58 y = 0.4178x Muddy Creek mainstem 1988 -1991 Figure 4-4: Sediment Calibration Results for South Fork Muddy Creek 10000 c 0 E c 1000 c d E N 100 V E N Modei Application )00 4-7 1( 10 100 "" Observed Sediment (tons/month) ,Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates Figure 4-5: Sediment Calibration Results for Mainstem Muddy Creek ,..100000 0 y = 0.4178x a 10000 RZ = 0.58 c v c m 1000 E ?0,00 10 ? • 100 _E M 10 10 100 1000 10000 100000 Observed Sediment (tons/month) 4.1.3.2 Total Nitrogen Calibration Similar to the approach used to develop daily sediment loading estimates, a regression equation was developed based on the observed_ relationship between stream hydrology and total nitrogen loading (Figure 3-15). This regression equation was applied to the daily stream flow data collected on the South Fork Muddy Creek and the Muddy Creek mainstem in order to generate daily total nitrogen loads, based on the observed stream flow. These results were compared to the, GWLF model output in order to. evaluate the ability of GWLF to predict observed nitrogen loadings. Results of the total nitrogen calibrations for the South Fork Muddy Creek and Muddy Creek are presented in Figures 4-6 and 4-7. The calibration statistics for each calibration are presented in &'figures, and are also presented in Table 4-3. Total nitrogen was over- predicted by approximately 28 percent at the South Fork Muddy Creek calibration gage, and by approximately 35 percent at the Muddy Creek mainstem calibration gage. RZ values indicate that GWLF model total nitrogen predictions generally explained approximately 55-65 percent of the variation in nitrogen loading observed at the USGS gage stations. Model Application 4-8 ky molmrsms • C - • Table 4-3: Total Nitrogen Calibration Statistics for Study Area GVE'LF;Simulation " SJmulatl0n Jerl6d R2 Cpzrelrition Value' Re"gresslbn Equatlo}?' South Fork Muddy Creek 1988-1991 0.54 y = 1.2836x Muddy Creek mainstem 1988-1991 0.63 y = 1.3479x Figure 4-6: Total Nitrogen Calibration Results for South Fork Muddy Creek 70 t c 60 E y = 1. 28 3 6x 50 W = 0 .5 4 0 r 40 m a 2 30 z • ' S 20 '15 4 0 w 4 1,? ? I I E 10 rn 0- 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Observed Nitrogen (tons/month) 300 L w o 250- 9 . i y =1.3 47 9x w 200 Re = 0.6 3 c 150 a 100 w ? 50- - - E r • 0 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 Observed Nitrogen (tons/month) Figure 4-7: Total Nitrogen Calibration Results for Mainstem Muddy Creek Model Application 4-9 Winston-Salein Northern Beltway Pollutant Load E=stimates 4.1.3.3 Total Phosphorus Calibration Similar to the approach used to develop the daily sediment and nitrogen loading estimates, a regression equation was developed based on the observed relationship between stream hydrology and total phosphorus loading (Figure 3-16). This regression equation was then applied to the daily stream flow data collected on the South Fork Muddy Creek and the Muddy Creek mainstem in order to generate daily total phosphorus loads, based on the observed stream flow. These results are compared to the GWLF model output in order to evaluate the ability of GWLF to predict observed phosphorus loadings. Results of the total phosphorus calibrations for the South Fork Muddy Creek and Muddy Creek are presented in Figures 4-8 and 4-9. The calibration statistics for each calibration are presented in the figures, and are also presented in Table 4-4. Total phosphorus was over-predicted by approximately 22 percent at the South Fork Muddy Creek calibration gage, and by approximately 11 percent at the Muddy Creek mainstem calibration gage. RZ values indicate that GWLF model total phosphorus predictions generally explained approximately 50 percent of the variation in phosphorus loading observed at the USGS gage stations. Table 4-4: Total Phosphorus Calibration Statistics for Study Area Model Application 4-10 Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates] Figure 4-8: Total Phosphorus Calibration Results for South Fork Muddy Creek 16 c E 14 c 12 Y =1.2184x 10 W= 0.51 P 000 8 a 41 .1 t 6 a 4- 2-- E w 0 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 Observed Phosphorus (tons/month) Figure 4-9: Total Phosphorus Calibration. Results for Mainstem Muddy Creek t 60- 0 E 50 c y=1.1154x 40 Fe=0.52 N 7 t 30 .0 00-r ?$a a 20 m 10 E co 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Observed Phosphorus (tons/month) Model Application 4-11 Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates) 4.2 GWLF Model Pollutant Loading Estimates 4.2.1 GWLF Existing Conditions Scenario The calibrated GWLF model was used to estimate sediment, nitrogen, and phosphorus loadings from each source area in the study area under the existing watershed conditions. Based on the 10-year simulation period from 1988 to 1998, average annual sediment, nitrogen, and phosphorus loads were computed for each land source in the watershed. These results are presented in Table 4-5. Table 4-5: Average Annual Pollutant Loads from Land Sources in Study Area under Existing Conditions v Nitr"ben y, ,attJf? d1. %, ?t(l? a ;'?;t f Waterbodies 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Unconsolidated Sediment 34.5 519 0.5 0.7, Deciduous Forest 0.8 12,011 25.0 17.2 Evergreen Forest 0.8 1,078 2.2 1.5 Mixed Forest 0.8 647 1.3 0.9 Managed Herbaceous Cover 3.4 319526 340.1 69.8 Cultivated 33.3 18,715 37.3 27.9 Unmanaged Herbaceous Upland 3.4 887 9.0 1.7 Bottomland Forest/Hardwood Swamps ° 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Low-Intensity Developed 0.5 2,633 67.5 12.3 High-Intensity Developed. 1.1 4,840 112.6 17.2 Sediment loading rates for each GWLF modeling source area (i.e., land cover type) are also presented in Table 4-5. These values fall within the established ranges for sediment loadings rates that have been published in the literature, indicating that the GWLF model produced reasonable sediment loading estimates. The sediment loading rates presented in Table 4-5 generally remained constant across modeling scenarios (the existing conditions scenario and the projected land cover scenarios presented below); differences in sediment and nutrient loads were related to changing land cover distributions and increased development. Nitrogen and phosphorus loading rates were calculated internally in the GWLF model, with the model output expressed as the particulate and soluble nutrient loads (summed together to generate the total nutrient loads presented in Table 4-5). Model Application 4-12 Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates The pollutant loading results were summarized into more general land cover categories (Table 4-6) to facilitate comparison between the GLWF model results and those of the AnnAGNPS model. As indicated in Table 4-6, pasture and cropland are the predominant sources of sediment loading in the study area, pasture and high-intensity developed land are the predominant sources of nitrogen loading, and pasture and cropland are the predominant sources of phosphorus loading in the study area. Table 4-6: Summarized Average Annual Pollutant Loads from Land Sources under Existing Conditions i'ir rrl:an Code ?re r'.' M.. `oa. 77 rl l3' ` N L ®a?t,?»ad (toi S%':.' Forest 13,736 28.6 19.7 Pasture 32,413 349.1 71.5 Cropland 18,715 37.3 27.9 Low-Intensity Developed 2,633 67.5 12.3 Hi -Intensi Developed 4,840 112.6 17.2 Water/Wetlands 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other 519 0.5 0.7 Total 72,856 596 149 4.2.2 GWLF Projections for the No-Build Scenario The calibrated GWLF model was used to estimate sediment, nitrogen, and phosphorus loadings from each source area in the study area under the projected no-build scenario. This scenario used land cover projections for the year 2015, and was used to estimate land cover changes and the subsequent changes in pollutant loading in the absence of Winston-Salem Northern Beltway extension construction. Additional details regarding the projected no-build scenario are provided in Section 3.7 and Appendix C. The same 10-year simulation period was used in order to directly compare results from the no-build scenario to the existing conditions results. Average annual sediment, nitrogen, and phosphorus loads were computed for each land source area in the watershed, and are presented in Table 4-7. As indicated by Table 4-7, sediment, nitrogen, and phosphorus loads from high-intensity and developed lands increased under the projected no-build scenario as compared to the existing conditions scenario, while pollutant loadings from pasture, forest, and cropland decreased. Model Application 4-13 Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates Table 4-7: Average Annual Pollutant Loads from Land Sources under Projected No-Build Ccenarin ' Generalized Land'Cover;; ,Seth ept ad Nitrogen Load Phoi p h16fIW, Load . Type. (tian??ylr) ?ta?i/yr) enslyr) , (t Forest 9,887 20.4 14.2 Pasture 25,069 266.6 55.0 Cropland 18,339 36.3 27.3 Low-Intensity Developed 8,267 210.4 38.4 High-Intensity Developed 7,860 182.5 27.9 Water/Wetlands 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other 508 0.5 0.7 Total 69,930 717 164 4.2.3 GWLF Projected Build-Out Scenario The calibrated GWLF model was also used to estimate sediment, nitrogen, and phosphorus loadings from each source area in the study area under the projected build- out scenario. This scenario used land cover projections for the year 2015, and was used to estimate land cover changes and the subsequent changes in pollutant loading resulting from construction of the Winston-Salem Northern Beltway extension. Additional details regarding the projected build-out scenario are provided in Section 3.7 and Appendix C. The same 10-year simulation period was used in order to directly compare results from the build-out scenario to the existing conditions and no-build scenario results. Average annual sediment, nitrogen, and phosphorus loads were computed for each land source area in the watershed, and Fare presented' in Table 4-8. As indicated by Table 4-8, sediment, nitrogen, and phosphorus loads from high-intensity and developed lands increased under the projected build-out scenario as compared to the existing conditions and no-build scenarios, while pollutant loadings from pasture and forest decreased. Table 4-8: Average Annuall Pollutant Loads from Land Sources under Projected Build-out Scenario Model Application 4-14 (Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates 4.2.4 GWLF Northern Beltway Pollutant Loading Summary Figure 4-10 summarizes the estimated sediment, total nitrogen, and total phosphorus loadings estimated by GWLF under the existing conditions, as well as the no-build and build-out projected scenarios. As indicated in Figure 4-10, land-based sediment loadings decreased from the existing conditions to the no-build and build-out scenarios. This was due to the projected conversion of pasture, cropland, and forested areas to impervious surfaces. However, it is important to note that loading models such as GWLF only calculate sediment loading from land-based sources, and are not able to quantify in- . channel erosion. An increase in developed areas such as predicted under the no-build and build-out scenarios would likely increase stormwater flows, and consequently increase in-channel sediment loading. Nitrogen and phosphorus loading increased under the no- build and build-out scenarios as compared to the existing conditions; this was likely due to loading from fertilizer which is typically applied to residential lands. The no-build and build-out projected scenarios were similar, with the exception of commercial and residential development that was predicted to occur adjacent to beltway interchanges under the build-out scenario. The differences in pollutant loadings under these scenarios are attributed to the additional development projected to occur around the beltway interchanges in the build-out scenario. Under the build-out scenario, predicted sediment loadings remained almost unchanged (a slight decrease of 0.4%), while nitrogen and phosphorus loadings increased by 115 tons/year (13.8%) and 14 tons/year (7.9%), respectively, as compared to the no-build scenario. Model Application 4-15 Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates Figure 4-10: Summary of Results for GWLF Modeling Scenarios 900 > 74,000 800 TP , 73,000 V 1 M 700 x R. 4 N 600 + 1, ? TSS ro; 72,000 N 0 ?' ?" 0 500 { w ,h 71,000 y 400 A rfi;, C C 300 70,000 200 69,000 ° Z 100 i t. 0 68,000 Existing No-build Build-out Conditions Scenario Scenario 4.3 AnnAGNPS Model 4.3.1 Calibration Strategy Prior to describing the different steps implemented for the creation of the AnnAGNPS input file and the implementation of the model, it is necessary to assess the existing data in light of the AnnAGNPS in-stream limitations and derive a sound and robust modeling approach to generate pollutant loads for the study area. As discussed in Section 3.11.1, the only streamflow stations with adequate. data for calibration are located at the outlets of the South Fork Muddy Creek and Muddy Creek mainstem watersheds. Section 2.3.2 discussed a primary restriction when using AnnAGNPS, which is that the model routes all surface runoff and associated chemicals through the watershed in a single day. Thus, any in-stream applications should be limited to watersheds where the time of travel is one day or less. On the other hand, this 24-hour travel time restriction does not curtail AnnAGNPS ability to simulate the quality and quantity of runoff from each land Cover category regardless of the time of travel in the receiving stream. An analysis of travel times in the study watershed indicates that only the South Fork Muddy Creek station (USGS 02115900) has a travel time of less than 24- Model Application 4-16 Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates .:. hour, and thus can be used in the hydrologic calibration for this study. Travel times at the different subbasin outlets in the study watershed are depicted in Table 4-9. Table 4-9: Travel Times in the Study Watershed Subbasins ' Refers to stations with observed data that potentially can be used for this study (Section 3.11.3) Basin b)ys@r4ect'Ijlgita`` Station1:' ; Drainage Area acres Trivel Tl rie ours Muddy Creek USGS 02115860 39,228 63.3 Mill Creek none 20,856 32.7 Silas/ Little Creek none 12,491 12.0 Salem Creek USGS 02115856 44,591 45.1 South Fork USGS 02115900 28,552 21.1 'Table 4-9 indicates that the stream flow data at station USGS 02115900 has a travel time of less than 24 hours, and hence, can be used to calibrate the surface runoff (quantity and quality). This observation of the travel time drove the strategy for the calibration of hydrology and water quality at the South Fork Muddy Creek station, and hence the entire watershed. Below the key steps used in the implementation of the AnnAGNPS calibration, and its application to the whole watershed, are briefly discussed. 4.3.1.1 Comparison of Simulated and Observed Runoff at the South Fork Muddy Creek USGS Station Since the travel time at this station is less than 24 hours, the observed and simulated runoffs were compared while making the necessary parameter adjustments to produce a robust and acceptable hydrology calibration. Prior to this exercise the observed stream flow at the South Fork Muddy Creek station was separated into base flow and runoff components, and only the runoff component was compared to the simulated AnnAGNPS runoff. 4.3.1.2 Assurance that Edge-of-Stream (EOS) Loads were within Published Literature Values Prior to the calibration of sediment and nutrient loads at the South Fork Muddy Creek station, steps were taken to insure the EOS loads generated by the AnnAGNPS model were within the established literature values. When using a watershed model such AnnAGNPS, it is necessary to verify that the EOS loads are within acceptable values and that the model is performing adequately prior to comparing the simulated and observed pollutant loads. Model Application 4-17 Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates 4.3.1.3 Calibration of the Transported Pollutant Loads at the South Fork Muddy Creek USGS Station The second component of the water quality calibration consists of comparing the transported (delivered) pollutant loads generated by AnnAGNPS to the observed pollutants loads presented in Appendix G. This was the final model calibration at the South Fork Muddy Creek USGS station, and resulted in the estimation of existing- conditions pollutant loads for the subbasin. 4.3.1.4 Application of the South Fork Subbasin Parameterization to the Entire Study Area Following the calibration of the runoff and pollutant exports at the South Fork Muddy Creek USGS station, the calibrated parameters were then applied to the entire study watershed to generate pollutant export loads under the existing conditions scenario. This was followed by the generation of pollutant loads for the no-build and build-out scenarios. The following section describes the development of the AnnAGNPS input file and all the required data analysis and processing. The subsequent sections present the results of the hydrologic and water quality"calibrations, as well as the results of the existing conditions, no-build, and build-out scenarios. 4.3.2 Input File. Generation In this section the major steps performed in the development of the AnnAGNPS input file are presented. AnnAGNPS is a lumped parameter model, where spatial variation within a land-segment (cell) is ignored and the dominant attributes within the cell are used to describe the cell >characteristics. In other words, a model-cell has a single soil type, land cover category, runoff.curve number, slope, and other soils characteristics necessary for the simulation of sediment exports. Overall, four types of data are required to run the AnnAGNPS model; topographic, soil, land-use, and climate data. These data can be prepared and organized using the tools and/or models provided in the AnnAGNPS modeling package. The input data set for AnnAGNPS Model consists of 33 sections of data, comprising 400 separate input parameters necessary for model execution which are repeated for each cell, Model Application 4-18 : MMMISM MIN :- soil type, land cover types, and channel reach. These data can be prepared and organized using the tools and/or models provided in the AnnAGNPS package, which consists of several programs and sub-programs embedded within an ArcView GIS platform. Additional information regarding these processing tools is provided in Section 2.2.3 and Appendix A. Prior to presenting the results of the hydrology and water quality calibrations, the approach used to mimic the nutrient applications rates (fertilizers on urban areas, and manure on pasture) is presented. 4.3.3 Nutrient Applications in AnnAGNPS One of the limitations in using the AnnAGNPS model in urban areas is the incorporation of nutrient application rates in the input file. In fact, AnnAGNPS has such capabilities but it is applicable only for cropland areas when simulating the growth sequence of a particular crop. AnnAGNPS does have the capability of simulating a "non-crop" land cover, however, the model does not permit the application of fertilizers on this type of land cover. To circumvent this limitation, the contractor's modeling team developed a modeling approach that allows the simulation of nutrient application in urban and pasture areas. This approach consists of simulating urban and pasture areas as cropland, allowing the use of the fertilizer operation embedded within AnnAGNPS. Consequently, pasture and urban land covers are simulated as cropland using limited AnnAGNPS-operations (growing a crop, applying fertilizer, and killing the crop), which are permitted when using a cropland cell - and limiting these operations to a window of just a few days. This modeling strategy was submitted to Fred Theurer, one of the AnnAGNPS original developers, for comments and he enthusiastically accepted this novel approach (Fred Theurer 2005). This modeling approach was applied to urban areas using an annual nitrogen application rate of 50 pounds per acre and a phosphorus application rate of 15 pounds acre. These application rates are the results of urban studies and modeling simulations approach used at the Chesapeake Bay Office in Annapolis Maryland (Gary Schenk 2005). The manure application rates used in the model are presented in Appendix D. As previously Model Application 4-19 Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates discussed, fertilizer and manure application rates were applied in urban areas using the urban and pasture areas as AnnAGNPS cropland cells. It should be noted that the AnnAGNPS model permits only fertilizer application on the land surface and does not allow any fertilizer incorporation depth. 4.3.4 AnnAGNPS Hydrology Calibration AnnAGNPS simulates runoff from each land-segment and its routing though the watersheds' reaches. The existing observed USGS flow data is comprised of both base flow and surface runoff flow, while the AnnAGNPS model simulates only surface runoff flow. Therefore, it was necessary to separate the base flow component from the USGS observed flow in order to make meaningful comparisons between the simulated and observed runoffs. Flow separation was performed using the Hydrograph Separation Program (HYSEP) developed by the USGS (Sloto, 1996). HYSEP separates a streamflow hydrograph into base-flow and surface-runoff components. The base-flow component has traditionally been associated with ground-water discharge and the surface-runoff component with precipitation that enters the stream as overland runoff. The streamflow separation was applied to the observed flow data collected at the South Fork Muddy Creek USGS station (02115900).. The hydrology calibration consisted of adjusting AnnAGNPS input variables such as the curve numbers:,-unfit a good agreement between observed and simulated runoff flows was reached:: Monthly and , annual flows were compared to assess the robustness of the calib ration. Table 4-10 depicts the annual simulated and observed flows at the South Fork Muddy Creek USGS station. Table 4-10 indicates that the model reasonably reproduces the annual average „long-term hydrologic response in the South Fork Muddy Creek watershed. The annual average simulated flow during the period of 1988 to 1991 is 96 percent of the observed runoff flow. The comparison of monthly and observed flows was performed using similar statistics to those used in the calibration of the GWLF model. Figure 4-11 depicts the results statistically and indicates that when comparing the monthly results AnnAGNPS reproduces the overall observed runoff flow (y= 1.005x), with a satisfactory RZ of 0.74. Model Application 4-20 Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates Table 4-10: Annual Simulated and Observed Flows in South Fork Muddy Creek eor Sij#algt'ed Flow acre=fe+?t :. Observed Flow' acre-feet Ratio Simulated/Observed 1988 5,595 5,149 1.09 1989 22,457 24680 0.91 1990 18,611 23,830 0.78 1991 17,395 16,570 1.05 Annual Ave. 16,015 17,557 0.958 Figure 4-11: AnnAGNPS Hydrology Calibration Results for South Fork Muddy Creek 100000 y = 1.0058x Rs = 0.7389 9 10000 01 0 1000 000 0044 P. to • .00 100 • 10 10 100 1000 10000 100000 Observed Runoff (acre-ft) Model Applicatlon 4-21 jWinston-Salem Northern Beltway PDllutant Load Estimates'I 4.3.5 AnnAGNPS Sediment Calibration The AnnAGNPS sediment calibration followed similar steps to those used in the hydrology calibration, i.e., comparing the annual observed and simulated sediment loads as well as comparing the monthly transported sediment loads. The only additional verification performed during the sediment calibration was to insure that the sediment loads (erosion rates or EOS loads) transported from each land cover type to the river reaches were within acceptable published values. As a guideline, published literature values of expected erosion rates (Donigian, 2003) were used. Table 4-11 depicts the results of the simulated erosion rates in the South Fork Muddy Creek watershed as they compared to the published values. Table 4-11 : Simulated Erosion Rates by Land Cover Type in the South Fork Muddy Creek Watershed +d f ki 7Ci 4,Y ° ra v t1o''J'4 lyea,i 8N,? d? ' {{rlJ v,; , . b 8 W FF H g4 Forested 0.05' 0.4 0.213 0.635 ` 0.680 0.10 Pasture 0.3-1.5 1.31 0.014 3.180 0.59 Low-Intensity Developed' 0.2-1.0, 1.01 0.738 1.298 0.17 High-Intensity Developed' 0.2 -1.0 0.72 0.510 0.957 0.15 1 Donigian (2003) included only one category of urban land cover The typical erosion rates presented in Table 4-11 were used as calibration guidelines to insure that the simulated erosion rates.were within acceptable published values. This was the first step in the calibration of sediment loads in the South Fork Muddy Creek watershed. The second step consisted of comparing the simulated transported sediment loads to the existing-conditions observed loads developed and presented in Section 3.12.1 and Appendix G. Table 4-12 depicts the annual average sediment results and indicates that the AnnAGNPS model overestimated the annual average transported loads by approximately 25 percent. Similar observations can be inferred from the depiction of the monthly observed and simulated loads shown in Figure 4-12. Simulated sediment rates for all land cover types were within published literature values, and have an acceptable R2 of 0.44 when compared to observed rates. However, as mentioned in Section 4.2.1, the implementation of the modeling scenarios will compare the erosion rates rather then Model Application 4-22 Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates the transported loads, due to the AnnAGNPS reach-routing limitation which is applicable only to streams with travel times of less than 24 hours. In addition, comparing the erosion rates will help compare the results from AnnAGNPS and GWLF, as GWLF only simulates erosion rates from different land cover types. Table 4-12: Annual Simulated and Observed Sediment Loads in South Fork Muddy Creek ear Siri tila?ed Sediment I,dad (tQn) ObserveQ'Sedi?iieilif; Lgads,(tohj) Ratio Slmulated/bp9erved 1988 3,127 988 3.16 1989 11,620 11,160 1.04 1990 8,695 11,705 0.74 1991 17,524 8,643 2.03 Annual Average 1 8,124 1.74 /0 2 (/ / V' Model Application f:o'46 4-23 Figure 4-12: AnnAGNPS Sediment Calibration Results for South Fork Muddy Creek Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates k?s 4.3.6 AnnAGNPS Total Nitrogen Calibration The total nitrogen calibration follows similar steps to those used in the sediment calibration, i.e., comparing the nitrogen export rates from each land cover type using published literature values, then insuring that the annual and monthly simulated nitrogen loads are comparable to the observed loads (Table 4-13, Figure 4-13). As a guideline for the nutrient export rates, published and widely used literature values were used (Reckhow, 1980). Simulated nitrogen rates for all land cover types were within published literature values and have an acceptable R2 of 0.43 compared to observed rates. Table 4-13: Simulated Nitrogen Loading Rates by Land Cover Type in the South Fork Mudd, r Creek Watershed ,? r T '+ I'Values* ?,• Males (16/acre) e t d Nit l o ,, fi >? acre n r e g mu a 1 «<<< ` q Forested 2.54 1.22-5.6 1.32 0.11 7.6 0.94 Pasture 7.70 1.30-27.5 10.83 4.42 27.06 3.10 Low-Intensity Developed 8.9 1.30-34.2 12.89 9.36 18.37 1.64 High-Intensity Developed 8,797 1.30-34.2 19.19 13.79 29.75 2.09 * Reckhow, 198U. Figure 4-13: AnnAGNPS Nitrogen Calibration Results for South Fork Muddy Creek 100000- U) y=1.0159X Y R2 = 0.4329 • • 06 U) V • 80000 • i • C • tM b z • 'Z1000 E c 100 2 100 1000 10000 100000 Monthly Observed Nitrogen Loads (kgs) Model Application 4-24 Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates 4.3.7 AnnAGNPS Phosphorus Calibration The total nitrogen calibration follows similar steps to those used in the sediment calibration. i.e., comparing the nitrogen export rates from each land cover type using published literature values, then insuring that the annual and monthly simulated nitrogen loads are comparable to the observed loads (Table 4-14, Figure 4-14). Simulated phosphorous rates for all land cover types were within published literature values, and have an acceptable RZ of 0.56 when compared to observed rates. As a guideline for the nutrient export rates, published and widely used literature values were used (Reckhow, 1980). Table 4-14: Simulated Phosphorus Loading Rates by Land Cover Type in the South Fork Muddy Creek Watershed Ak 1 1. ; 1? .... 1 •" '? ,(T: Sv r r l 9 1 4?+ ti 4 4 d 7 - ?1t 1 Y' 0'i? RNA d 1 11 '4 'I t ?LL }:. ?'?, ?1 0 Forested 0.21 0.17-0.74 1.06 0.60 2.55 0.11 Pasture 1.33 0.12-4.4 2.36 1.32 3.53 0.31 Low-Intensity Developed 1.70 0.17-5.54 2.47 1.84 2.97 0.22 High-Intensity Developed 1.70 0.17-5.54. 2.60 2.05 3.17 0.25 * Reckhow, 1980. Model Application 4-25 Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates n Figure 4-14: AnnAGNPS Phosphorus Calibration Results for South Fork Muddy Creek 100000 H o? Y v N 0 P 10000 O CL H O t CL 1000 0 E rn 100 100 100A 10000 100000 Monthly Observed Phosphorus Loads (kgs) 4.4 AnnAGNPS Model Pollutant Loading Estimates 4.4.1 AnnAGNPS Existing Conditions Scenario Similar to the implementation of the GWLF model, the calibrated AnnAGNPS model ry was used to estimate sediment, nitrogen, and phosphorus loadings from each source area " in the study area under the existing watershed conditions. Based on the 10-year a? " simulation period from 1988 to 1998, average annual sediment, nitrogen, and phosphorus loads were computed for each land source in the watershed. Table 4-15 depicts the results of the AnnAGNPS existing conditions pollutant loads for the study area. y = 1.0209x R2 = 0.5561 Model Application 4-26 Table 4-15: Average Annual Pollutant Loads from Land Sources under Projected Existing Conditions Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates As indicated in Table 4-15, pasture and forested lands are the predominant sources of sediment loading in the study area, pasture and high-intensity developed lands are the predominant sources of nitrogen loading in the study area, and pasture and forested lands are the predominant sources of phosphorus loading in the study area. Table 4-15 also presents the total loads derived using the GWLF model, indicting that the total sediment and phosphorus loads are comparable. However, the total nitrogen load derived from AnnAGNPS (392 tons/year) is much lower than the one simulated by GWLF (596 tons/year). Although the sediment loading rates from the two models are comparable, they show a different load distribution between land cover types. The differences in, the distribution of sediment loads between the two models are depicted in Table 4-16, expressed as unit loading rates (pound per acre per land cover category). It shows that AnnAGNPS simulates much higher sediment rates from developed areas than the GWLF model. In fact, AnnAGNPS' rates from low-intensity developed areas are as much as 5 times higher than those from GWLF. AnnAGNPS rates from the high-intensity developed areas are almost double the rates of GWLF. These differences in the distribution of loads in urban areas may have affected the prediction of sediment loads under the no-build and build-out scenarios. Table 4-16: AnnAGNPS and GWLF Annual Sediment and Nutrient Loading Unit-Rates models. Table 4-16 shows that AnnAGNPS phosphorus rates for forested land are double the loading rates produced by GWLF. In contrast, AnnAGNPS generates lower phosphorus loading rates than GWLF for pasture and urban areas. Model Application 4-27 Similar discrepancies exist for phosphorous distribution loads derived using the two Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates The lower AnnAGNPS nitrogen loads are caused by AnnAGNPS unit rates that are much lower than GVWLF for pasture and urban areas. There is almost a 9 lb/acre difference in the pasture nitrogen rates between the two models, and pastureland covers approximately 25 percent of the study area. Such differences in loading rates should be expected when comparing the results from a fully distributed model that divides the watershed into distinct homogeneous land parcels, and a lumped model that utilizes a unique loading rate from each land cover category. All the loading rates derived from AnnAGNPS and GWLF are within accepted literature values. However, the key distinction between the loading rates presented in Table 4-16 is that the rates derived from AnnAGNPS consist of an average derived from 1,459 land- segments, as compared to GWLF, which has a single default rate for each land cover type. This distinction makes AnnAGNPS more useful for detailed spatial analyses and assessing local management issues. The other advantage derived from using AnnAGNPS is that the input and output files are embedded within an ArcView platform enabling a quick and efficient spatial analysis. The creation of thematic GIS-based maps that describe any output from the model is a valuable tool that provides a snapshot of the conditions in the watershed. Figure 4-15 shows is an example of such a thematic map, showng the nitrogen 'loads to the different reaches from each land-segment under the existing conditions scenario. The 'following sections present the results of the AnnAGNPS no-build and build-out scenarios. Model Application 4-28 rA 0 U W d b b z a 0 A 0 A r# a In 1--I 9 Zt •1 D ?1 ? ryf 41 ,yam }, 4 y Sap r ' 4,t O ?? r V, z t 0 '-' 1 OD 4 Cn 4 i 1 1 ? J LLJ J z .?..r C rr • ? . a Y r t ?a d Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates] 4.4.2 AnnAGNPS Projected No-Build Scenario The calibrated AnnAGNPS model estimates the sediment, nitrogen, and phosphorus loadings from each source area in the study area under the projected 2015 no-build scenario. This scenario uses land cover projections for the year 2015 and the resulting changes in land cover and pollutant loading in the absence of Winston-Salem Northern Beltway extension construction. The same 10-year simulation period is used in order to have a meaningful comparison of the prediction from the no-build scenario to the existing conditions scenario. Average annual sediment, nitrogen, and phosphorus loads derived for each land source area in the watershed are presented in Table 4-17. As indicated by Table 4-17, sediment nitrogen, and phosphorus increase under the no-build scenario. There is a 12 percent increase in the phosphorous loads (113 tons/year compared to 127 tons/year) between the existing-conditions and the no-build scenario, respectively. Figure 4-16 shows the nitrogen loads to different reaches from each land segment under the no-build scenario. Table 4-17: Average Annual Pollutant Loads from Land Sources under the No-Build Scenario WOW" W Forest 11,000 44 39 Pasture 30,130 142 30 Low-Intensity Developed 37,150 206 41 High-Intensity Developed,- 15,500 134 17 No-Build Scenario Totals 93,780 ` 526 127 Existing Conditions Totals 83,750, 392 113 Model Application 4-30 Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates 4.4.3 AnnAGNPS Projected Build-Out Scenario The objective of the build-out scenario was to assess the potential changes in land cover and pollutant loading in 2015 resulting from the construction of the Northern Beltway. The no-build scenario predicted the sediment and nutrient loads due to projected changes in land cover by the year 2015 in the absence of the beltway construction (Figure 4-16). The difference in loads between the no-build and build-out scenarios gives the incremental change in loads that is due to the construction of the Northern Beltway Extension. Table 4-18 presents the estimates from the build-out scenario and indicates that sediment loads increased by 2 percent under the build-out scenario as compared to the no-build scenario. On the other hand, phosphorus and nitrogen loads increased by 6 and 23 percent, respectively, as compared to the no-build scenario. Figure 4-17 shows the nitrogen loads to different reaches from each land segment under the build-out scenario. Table 4-18: Average Annual Pollutant Loads from Land Sources under the Buffd-Out Scenario Forest 14,364 37 27 Pasture 26,583 101 28 Low-Intensity Developed 37,419,1 294 50 Hi -Intensi Develo ed 17,569'. - .' 213 30 Build-out Scenario Totals 95,935. 645 135 No-Build Scenario Totals 93,780 526 127 'r Model Applicatlon 4-32 M S• ? iA 'J ti ,a 'rl Q ,Y, II?? ?-- ? nY7 ? J T! ?=?• f , y ,,, k G7 4:7 r ? ?i y JOL 0 N ?d IL4 cI c 0 V CL as v 0 2 M M M 'L C' w C ? t11 4.`i V G ? 1Ci r T r? L S r ?? ' ? r? ? ? ? py } 0 ,1 110 0 0 0) CL 0 z .? 47 N C ?a as Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates 4.5 Summary Comparison of GWLF and AnnAGNPS The previous sections presented the results from the application of the two models. Table 4-19 summarizes key components related to the resources needed for the implementation of both the GWLF and AnnAGNPS models. Table 4-19: Summary Comparison of GWLF and AnnAGNPS Models '77 dtiSld'e?i?;Q» Effort for input data preparation Low Extremely High Data requirement Low Extremely High Computer time required Low High Model documentation Good Fair Flexibility of schematization None High Modeling skills required Low High Model and computer program availability ° Good Good Continuous refinement by the corresponding agency/developer Yes Yes Model Application 4-34 Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates 5.0 Summary and Discussion of Results Section 4.0 presented the implementation of the two models used to derive pollutant loads under the existing conditions and projected scenarios. The objective of the existing conditions scenario was to reproduce the existing loading conditions in the watershed, the objective of the no-build scenario was to derive loading projections in 2015 assuming that the Northern Beltway is not be constructed, and the objective of the build-out scenario was to estimate pollutant loading resulting from construction of the Winston- Salem Northern Beltway extension. In this section, we summarize and discuss the results of the three scenarios predicted by the two models. The main goal is not to attempt to select or recommend a specific model, but rather give a quantitative and qualitative assessment of the results. The advantage and disadvantages of the two models were previously discussed in Section 2.0. 5.1 Projected Land Cover Distributions The results from the respective modeling scenarios were dependent upon the corresponding projected land cover distributions. The approach used to derive the future land cover distributions was technically sound and combined key information from the Cumulative and Indirect Impact Assessment study conducted for the Winston-Salem Northern Beltway project, as well as the Forsyth County Growth Management Plan that was developed by the Winston-Salem/Forsyth County City-County Planning Board in 2001 as part of its comprehensive Legacy Plan. Information from these studies was further analyzed and used to modify specific land-use cells in the AnnAGNPS simulated distribution to better reflect current projections of future land cover. Table 5-1 presents the projected land cover distribution used in the GWLF and AnnAGNPS models to simulate the different scenarios. Figures illustrating difference in land cover between the existing condition, no-build and build-out scenarios appear in Section 3.7. Discussion of Results 5-1 Winston-Salern Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Es#imates Table 5-1: Projected Land-Use Distributions under the Three Modeling Scenarios •. * I *b? V A ko t N ? kf? I r i' Ezt ? ? !f ,. i t -' 4 e 1 '? 4i N ?. `•1• ` t Y l d Cover T ?? ' taaffo' < V?rB?k d Sc Qua Seeaario l ti l Forest 94,486 73,838 59,900 Pasture 35,490 25,635 19,962 Low-Intensity Urban 7,707 33,113 44,897 High-Intensity Urban 9,235 13,336 21,158 Watershed Totals 145,918 145,922 145,917 The trends in land cover changes shown in Table 5-1 are representative of typical growth and development, where pasture and forested areas "shift" to urbanized lands. 5.2 Summary of Results This section summarizes the results of the build-out and no-build scenarios, producing the changes in pollutant loads that may potentially result from the construction of the Northern Beltway Extension. Table 5-2: Summa of Results No-Build and Build-Out Scenarios 'aIS4?Fst?e"YE?v?iSL? A a.:;. _.;? „?. ?r ?r?i„ .:ri?V`" ; k •`. ..?,i Build-out Scenario 95,935 69,622 645 832 135 178 No-Build Scenario 931780 69,930 526 717 127 164 +29155 ' ---308 +119 +115 +8 +14 Difference (+2.3%) (-0.4%/W'.' (+22.6%) (+16%) (+6.8%) (+8.5%) When comparing the total pollutant loadings, as shown in Table 5-2, the two models show an overall, increase ; in nutrient loads as development increases. However, AnnAGNPS predicted an `increase in sediment loadings while GWLF predicted a slight decrease. As discussed in Section 4.0, the distributions of these changes between land cover types vary and may be different when analyzing a specific subbasin in the watershed, which may not match overall watershed trends. The percent differences in loadings from the two models, shown in Table 5-2, are relatively low and within the acceptable uncertainties and errors associated with such models. It is important to note that the foundation of these results was somewhat limited Discussion of Results 5-2 Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates data. These data were used to the best extent possible; however, they implied a level of uncertainty associated with the results presented in this study. In addition, any water quality, watershed, or simple screening model reproducing the existing observation with observed error rates of 10-20 percent is generally accepted in the scientific community as a solid and robust model that can be used to answer "what if questions" and implement management scenarios. In other words, the summary shown in Table 5-2 strongly suggests that total sediment and nutrient loads are not expected to change drastically, less then 20 percent, in the study area under 2015 land cover projections. Therefore, a change in the distribution of these loads is predicted, but the overall quantity will may be similar to what is being observed today. What may change in the study area under the no-build and build-out scenarios is the hydrologic response, resulting from an increase in storm water runoff caused by more impervious lands replacing pasture and forested areas. However, the volume of runoff increase may be alleviated by the implementation of sound pollution control options and best management practices in the study area. Discussion of Results 5-3 Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates soil and crop data, field operations, and feedlots must be obtained from various resource databases that need to be populated and are provided within the AnnAGNPS package. TOPAGNPS first processes the input DEM to remove depressions and flat areas to eliminate indefinite down-slope drainages (Martz and Garbrecht, 1998, 1999). In fact, very flat areas can be problematic in any digital terrain model. The automated watershed segmentation and parameterization is based on overland flow. TOPAGNPS uses the common D8 method (Fairchild and Leymarie, 1991) to detd'rtnine the direction of overland flow at each cell of a DEM. The D8 method comparosahe elevation of each grid cell against the elevations of its eight adjacent neighbors, and a syJngle flow direction is assigned along the steepest down-slope path. The surface dramagey pattern defined by these overland flow directions allows for the derivation of, the upstream drainage area or flow accumulation for each cell. The-main watershed boundary is determin?d from flow direction data. Once this boundary is determined, then"drainage network for the basin under study is derived (Martz and G1992). The ,:dainage network is defined y " r? e __X X through three steps. Initially, ? a continuous, dral??etwork i9rdelineated by selecting all cells with a drainage r?,,exceeding M4,us r Specif i ' critical source area (CSA). sr'k yrn ,yM1 Secondly, pruning 1f?rlie ne " k is perfoied to eliminate links shorter than a user specified threshold, th mim source chancel"length (MSCL). Thirdly, the channel h , of, 1957) stream-ordering system. Once the links are or ed{.uu?sing t 1? 6h1%f $?"v.1? 3i. Jn?j p w drainage, network i eate e contributing areas for the source nodes of exterior lm1&;"` iad the contnbut areas ?*.'both left and right banks of all channel links are identified L The critical sourc;?r?ea ;(eSA) and the minimum source channel length (MSCL) are the important parameter`in the TOPAGNPS program and are associated with landscape segmentation and continuous drainage, network generation. These two parameters drive the final simulated land use distribution since AnnAGNPS is a spatially distributed model that divides a watershed into sub-areas (cells) based on topographic characteristics so that the modeled cells homogeneously represents the characteristics of each cell. In fact, during the GIS overlay of the derived cells and drainage network, TOPAGNPS assigns the dominant land use category and soil type within each cell. Consequently, several Appendix A 2 iterations were implemented by manipulating the user-defined parameters CSA and MSCL. The key objective of these runs was to reproduce as closely as possible the existing land use distribution in the watershed while keeping the total number of cells within acceptable computational constraints. Figure A-1 depicts the final segmentation of the study area used in the AnnAGNPS simulations and the assigned land use type to each model-cell. i t , Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates After the GIS overlay (intersection) of the land-use and soil data, the AnnAGNPS Areview interface generates two master files one for the reaches and one for the cells. The two files are then imported into the AnnAGNPS input editor to create the main component of the input file. A.2 AnnAGNPS Arc View Interface Processing Steps 1) Process DEM: The Process DEM function automates the watershed-delineation procedures to determine the approximate stream network, subwatershed, and watershed outlet (Figure A-2). The user specifies the number of cells required to initiate a stream. To determine the approximate stream network, subwatersheds, and watershed outlet, the process DEM menu function proceeds through a''series of steps, as s Fill Sinks, Flow Direction, Flow Accumulation, Stream Db` tion, Stream Segmen Qt6(Links), Sub-watershed definition, and Outlets. When the rrr?bcess is finished, the filIDEM, sa FlowDir, FlowAcc, StreamGrd, LinkGrrd, WatshdGrd, i}'n* Outlets themes will be added into the view. L. ni. 2) Delineate Watershed: er the conio,1?0 ion of Process DEM function, the 'tl is S, Delineate Watersheds rocedur ' used to d" eate the watershed boundary from a user x.14 t? tl, defined outlet point. ece that the ou point be placed directly on the raster :, the watershed to be delineated correctly. th channv d,br el network,,stre When 1L.1y?j7{`'process lete subbwatershed theme will be added into view (Figure 3) Ann AGNPIi ut Data 1, 1 reparation, Specify Watershed Outlet: The first thing to be 4) Create and Execute TOPAGNPS Files: The next step in the AnnAGNPS input data preparation is the generation of two TOPAGNPS format ASCII files; DEDNM.inp, and determined in the `.?.' • ; . PS input data preparation step is the location of the outlet raster at the downst??am end of the watershed (Figure A-4). This process will calculate the number of rows and columns for DEDNM.exe program's control file, DNMCNT.inp. The row and column number of the outlet will be displayed on the ArcView window. This information is needed in the DNMCNT.inp file while executing DEDNM.exe. Appendix A 4 Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates DNMCNT.inp. After generating the TOPAGNPS input files, the user is instructed to execute TOPAGNPS, which consists of running the DEDNM, Raspro, and Rasfor programs. The DEDNM (Digital Elevation Drainage Network Model) program performs several functions, including pre-processing the elevation data, performing hydrographic watershed segmentation, defining the drainage network, watershed, and subwatershed boundaries, and tabulating input parameters. The RASPRO (Raster Properties) program derives additional spatial topographic information and parameters from the basic raster datasets produced by the DEDNM program. The RASFOR (Rgister Formatting) program is a raster reformatting utility. 5) Execute AGFLOW: The next step in the Ann AGPS input date preparation is the execution of the AGFLOW program. The A00FLOW model uses oit`' iit, files from t TOPAGNPS as input to generate input parameters poxcessai 'for the AnnAGNPS model. TOPAGNPS model output is expressed as raster datal,6'6prds which contain information on particular geographic features, such#gt? type, elevahc'land,use, and field slope. AGFLOW is a FORTRAN program. ThA, GIF am generates five output files; two files containing iqf&' 01 on cell an zpach paratiieters that are imported into the AnnAGNPS input<eit,.one fileltntaining int?to the VBFLOWNET program, one file containing summary infW tick t? delin ed model subareas, and one log file for the executi6 of l GFL program "The key output from AGFLOW are the two 461 files Gaining the NPS ?i l's cell and reach parameters that are imported into the input b'tor to create t,AnnAGNPS input file sections related to the cell and reach data. h 6) Import TOPAGI''?ArWiew Files: This process will import selected TOPAGNPS *arc files to ArcView. This process will generate the grid themes (netful, subwta, bound, ntgcod, and netw), then convert `subwta' and `bound' to shapefiles. When the process is completed, the subwta.shp and bound.shp shapefiles will be added into the view. The subwta shapefile represents the AnnAGNPS model cells. 7) Intersect AnnAGNPS Cells with Soils Data: In this step the AnnAGNPS model cells are intersected with existing soils data to obtain a shapefile with new polygons and the Appendix A 5 Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates subwatersheds GridCode and the key soil identification field associated with each polygon. The program will process and identify the dominant soils data classification for each AnnAGNPS model cell. After the intersection process is complete, a new theme named Inter soil.shp will be created by the intersection process (Figure A-5). 8) Intersect AnnAGNPS Cells with Land Cover Data: Similar to the soils intersection, in this step the AnnAGNPS model cells are intersected with existing land cover data to obtain a shapefile with new polygons and the subwatersheds Grikode and the key land cover identification field associated with each polygon. Thb-program will process and identify the dominant land cover classification for each AnnAt'r1PS model cell. After the intersection process is complete, a new theme named-Inter lulc.sl p will be created by the intersection process (Figure A-6). 9) Extract Cell and Reach Data: The final step in the AnAGNPS data input preparation is to extract the cell and reach 4?.k via the generation of the ann cell.dbf and ann reach.dbf files. These files can be,'direel ',?;,jmported into' the AnnAGNPS input file using the AnnAGNPS input editor, andont` aIlM' e cell and reach information {? y Ypy? X4?y..l... needed for the AnnAG'§W1"0Ctt file. x r"} 1 'dln ?`tt? ?s by ,d Appendix A 6 • '• • • Morl-fis r.?,_.... A 1. A.... A l-NUC nl M .-A Q+woom Grid ? l r ? A FiLure A-4: AnnAGNPS Input Data Preparation Steps A-5: AnnAGNPS Model Cells and Soils Intersection I? 3 ? a 10 Estimates: •. Load Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Figure A-6: AnnAGNPS Model Cells and Land Cover Intersection i ?- i I ? I Appendix A I I Ri ^ Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates A.3 AnnAGNPS ArMew Interface Output: Input Parameters for Cells and Reaches The key output from the interface is two files summarizing all the input parameters for all the cells and reaches. These two files are then imported into the input editor to create the input files for the study area. Table A-1 shows the reach file input and Table A-2 shows the cell file input. The data shown in Table A-1 and Table A-2 is described below: Each raster's flow vector slope was used to calculate the raster's LS-factor prior to determining its respective cell's average LS-factor. ?t Each raster along its respective cell's hydraylicaXly mos d start path used the A? raster's flow vector slope to calculate tlh 'cell?s TC profile ?s?,gment slope & lengths. al 1 Each raster's terrain slope was used to slope. Orphan raster code: F: me s that respective cell's average land raster(s) are involved for this cell ID s) make up this cell. ID is made up of reassigned channel raster(s) did not previously have any rasters that were source, right-, or leftside cells. Appendix A 12 T: means°'Wor1 M r r-i N M ri N M N M N M ri N M N M ri N M N M N M N M .•? N M N ri N M N M H N M N M r-I Q N N M M M d' sN ul Il) lD W ID r r m W W O) O) O O ri H N N N M sN V' W In ul 1D to 1D r r a) H ri r-1 ri ri ri ri ri r-I r-1 ri r-1 r-1 ri r+ ri ri ri r-I U q N .. W D4 C. Iw C. W N P4 P4 W N, IL 4, C+ N W W P4 W R4 W N k, 04 k4 W W RI CI W W P4 N N N N N N fA4 ? •?? N O 0 al eW r y 0 [? 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N N N N N N N N N N N N N M N N m N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N r-I W N q N m VI d• N V1 l0 W r M Ifl O, D, ,D N W H d' ,D N N M O N H m o o r o H N m V' m r N ,D m W H r m w M .ro ?N{ r O r O, r H V' H r O H lD H H r N GD M O V' O O ,D oD O ul u1 O N N CD N dD O C0 C, D, r D, H N m D, m H k'i r ,D H H r N ,D H r N ,D N W m v O m m m m m v H N N m m r r m m H H M r m N O H m v H H Q In O W lD H N N H ul lp M ,D M lD r H ul W N H W m? m H m M ,D M W" W H m N M H -N (r1 (V M N m N M rI N M H N M H N m r1 fV m H N M H N M H M H N m N M N m N M N r -in r N H r aD aD D1 0, D, O O H H N N m m M d' VI d' ul ul I!1 ? ?D ,D r r r m aD O O, O, O OOH H N N m m V' VI O O O m O O D, D, 01 D, O, D, D1 D, 01 O\ D, D, D, D, D, D1 01 D, D, D, D, D, 0, O O O O O O O O O O O OD U N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N m M m lr1 M M M m M m M mz?. • • 1 i Figure B-11: Stream Regressions for South Fork Muddy Creek Subbasin y = o.4assX'?072 0.4466262 South Fork Muddy Creek Depth Regression 8 5 =4 ?? a 03 e 02 1 0 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 Drainage Area y ¦ 0.1636x R2 B 7 B F 5 L 6 00 03 - - - - - 2 1 - - 0 0 - - - - - - - - 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 Downstream Drainage Area (acres) 70 60 50 S 40 v 30 3 20 10 0 Mill Creek Width Regression 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 Downstream Drainage Area ,y? rye R r'. Appendix B Y = 2.1282xase2s South Fork MuddyCreek Width Regression W=0.6728 70 60 50 =40 r 30 3 20 10 0 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 Drainage Area (acres) Figure B-12: Stream Regressions for Mill Creek SubbAkh, y ¦ 4.0679x".242 o aru MIII Creek Depth Regressions ¦ 0.6582 R' ' 0'5U6 11 106 ? ,, I ?.?., ?F.I:I .}y f, - .- { 1 .y. } N 7-. •I•- i I •I?.t WOO h -,I-4 +. 100 rn'L rI L., ? I 90 ?1 -/. 1 _ j- 86 ,. _-+_ L._._J - LI- .,I..+_,'?-_ - - - 80 0 10 20 30 40 50 80 70 Width from River Left to Right (ft) Figure B-14: Cross Section of Silas Creek 2 105 100 95 90 85 80 {{"7,? It ?,rry?i# ,? ' r (" ?q Ohl +C rr" S a ?i 11 I? '.I-r 7 i I + I 'I i 1 ??. C I I: I f T p r?? L i `f _ vIr ` k i';+ ,F ¢;t5 Is l! iyl cl1 ; }I ) (a : y i 4 A, :?? k r? A ?? l N' ? - r t4 ?r d ? r(? 7 ? 1 i A ? 1 r4 a r S ? It ' 1? + ?? ? r iµ1 f ? ? ? ? K? 1 ? ? ' 1. ?, ? ti F, 1 t? !:{ + t .. ' rJ L? F? .. 4 ?1.?: J?( 1fy+? V•4 t ?. a ??,7,?"tn+tr u.1 K? +, 'tl?r? PIi J? ;i 'sic+ ? )I?i, 48c a I" w u a ? Y? >, +kr«'? I Q' 1 I ? 't )rrr ? ?,i i ra ' ? fa?1--U J. t }-?J t ?,y ?. `.A ?. `:1 I ' 'N •4...?. Y- ? r ?°?7? f7 , ? ? y?' l l4- .?? +, y, 1 !!'.. ? ? r ? ? } rcf t'. r , .Yv.(:I 1 } r n r?4 dy ,.lln t? ? ? it( 5?f7 r. . r r?,,1 c? t? N? L ei ?.?1'2, ,M I - r 7, ?. -II r ?n Y r ' I ?i? 11, d i i i t, ray' tw ' V )+ r' ,I tp r5 ` , z1 °vY { 7)',?"" r? as `I + { l '1 I ?I V ? k?J?"t ?Ar{K N4 p g h?i RS N'-7 P ll ?+) ? l - i 0 10 20 30 40 50 80 70 80 90 Width from River Left to Right (ft) 1 W ro atr? rSYY t! 1 r ts? 't15 e` 15: Cross Sect f 9f Silakti, pek 3 102 100 98 g 98 94 92 90 88 88 0 Appendix B 12 10 20 30 40 . 50 80 70 80 Width from River Left to Right (ft) ETTITMOMIN.-Mrarm, • • • Figure B-16: Cross Section of Silas Creek 4 106 100 96 tr 90 86 °( ?7 7 i •i'?i i ?.'t i ? A 80 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 Width from River Left to Right (R) 102 100 98 ?T 96 84 92 90 88 88 0 Appendix B 13 I I 1 l' ? ?Y Vf ?I ? ,j i . ?.j .? .i"k?', -, 4. y't'.? l 1 I.-.-I I-. ,4- 4 1. ,. _!, r1 F ??; rl m r { - _f ..•F { ? I -I.-' Y .I_ ? ib - Ir ' Ir .1 ,-, ? A ? ? ? _ - ? I I 1 l e i ( I -_ 1 -: { 1 7 I ? L C I 1 ?„1 y -??? ? I I ? I . J I ? , AL I C J Z ,?:r, Y t ( ? =i I ?r?? t ? ' •++ I ] ~?I I 1r .,I . ???.?' ?,. ? ? a ?: ? ? 7 .?? x I N , 1 I 1.?,M ?_ 1+? ?. ?'_? Il. .. ? ? 10 20 30 40 50 80 70 Width from River Left to Right (ft) 102 100 98 98 94 92 90 88 85 K p q '??rl I.. ?) = i4 ?ti 1-_ I-. L', ?,I.-.I? 1..f-} .te r Hl 1•^'?V- -1 i. Y1 -'l+ ,11-?. t ?+'. ??r it L.. „1 IW. fr. +'1. ? ' ;?.: r. C, ,t - r t }(- ba .I ^ 1 a I - L r -t 1 slit r- ?7 I??t. ` 1 c'7? u J ?f G ?' ? ik- r r J T;. t 7.1, I 11 _,? 1 I 77 ' 1., 7. CYAN. =t_k"".?- G V ,f- 41-, - . ? ? F.. ? 7 4 i 7 4 I r .. t ! - ! t }II . - r 0 10 20 30 40 50 80 70 80 90 Width from River Left to Right (ft) Figure B-20: Cross Section of Silas Creek 8 of Silf t'iEreek 9 Appendix B 14 10 20 30 40 50 80 70 80 90 Width from River Left to Right (ft) 10 20 30 40 50 80 70 80 90 Width from River Left to Right (ft) Figure B-22: Cross Section of Silas Creek 10 x 102 T -V-1771 98 98 94 92 90 88 8 Ila 8 20 30 40 50 80 70 0 10 Width from River Left to Right (R) 102- '100 98 9e 94 92 90 88 88 0 10 Figure 1?k4Cross 104 102 100 98 98 94 92 90 88 88 0 Appendix B i f+' i?7x ; w? k ?It r - 1 i L ?£.J but ,'r ~ ?:•?- vw ?`.• '?:u rte. ?'i ?. .,.L a?L±r ..OLI- ? L-.?.J..'? •. ». 5?_ ?;;? n" r?- ? ? I 1... 1 h { ?I F-: Y?. I (.--F i?-1 Y i '?I, .IAN /?- - I f -. E. 1•I 1t- f . v 1r ,- Nr ., 4 , i i I ? H•-i. ? ?i'+. ?ti ik a ?_,li I i- -l a• - - ? +_.b , 1 , 1 ° 1' ` li; '` CSI., •? ? I ??? Y r?;..?? ? C.4 ?.r ti.?? x +..h 'Sn C..?r .. C ,1: r ?i 3 C _ _ 7i r y a- Silas Creek 13 15 20 30 40 50 ov 70 Width from River Left to Right (ft) 10 20 30 40 50 80 70 nu e0 Width from River Left to Right (R) 102 100 "I it A-ww j 98 96 94 92 90 88 86 0 10 2 0 3 0 4 0 5 0 60 Width from River Left to Right (ft) Figure B-26: Cross Section of Salem Creek 1 ? ? , r ? r ? -t7 T r f ,rr i r . z . r ?. ? n . .r I- ?` h 1- ' V'..:± f f. I I? I I? I } { 1 ~ .1 Y I?.•? ? t T } ,? 1 t.. -I F H N- F • t? I I F? = h ry 1. ? h N? h ?'-. } I +? I_ I I I_ 1? I !-- w. ? ? ?'p _ ?. ._'?C':.1 ':L" ? G"J 1. ?- . k ? Y A: ?' 1 ',t •_. x . + ; `X' -. ,?-? "II C-_ L ? a L• . T. f T s?d)? r?- 011-110 "i r? S r `i ) 4 ? '1 n1 ?! ? + e-f:?, N- f^? ?1 ' ? ?I qd rl h 7 ? ? ? a +k ?t Y fi+ + ttir "• { Y' r etF??p? N' # P ? li 4 'I i r I • 1 i ? ? :H?e + iy v e N l 1 ?•?I .?.?. ?. ? ;? i?G ? i•S<. ? ' ? lj t SF Y' M ( ? A, F -4' 4 V.,M t,1 `- M tw " r ? Imo, Y 1, i' „,,I,?a F. t, .3 >a I ? ?"r d -d eR,b • ?-- y?i.J ? ?, l l f 4 ?! `k? A lute. h I f? 3i ?t?:` 1 t7 ! '??? L" ? '?'a "? ,? Q ?.W ? a r ? I i FI i"f` !•4 I ! r4.: t Ia r r - y? ? it r ? ? Ya .a ? 0 20 40 80 80 100 120 140 180 180 Width from River Left to Right (ft) x3' tY ir`Figu?e'B*^??• Cross Sectio,f Salem?Areek 3 110 106 ? 100 95 90 85 80 105 100 95 90 85 80 0 Appendix B 16 20 40 80 80 100 120 Width from River Left to Right (R) kTjTj • • ?• • Figure B-28: Cross Section of Salem Creek 4 105 100 96 9o 85 80 ?j L J J 4,21 1, .q_ ,Iti,-J»J...- 1 1 1:. T T _ 1-.? f. _1 "I .. T"y -I ._ ?• _ I, L .:11._ III. ` -11 7t ?.' -7 r ?I'" t ?r• I ?-.- 'r I +'- 'tf 1,; 1 ° ?1? r7 Y'° , - P r -(t 1- 1- 'I' T. Y .C I , _ i 1 1 l.-1 ('I I. 1 -i 1 1 'lei f..-I 1. » 1. y .. a _ r ? ? I I I ' rr ',I $J r }n '.? r,, . , 1 ! .1 4" 0 20 40 80 80 100 Width from River Left to Right (ft) 120 140 Figure B-29: Cross Section of Salem Creek 5 104 102 100 98 s? 98 94 92 90 88 88 0 Appendix B 17 10 20 30 40 50 . 80 70 80 90 Width from River Left to Right (ft) Cross Sec .-,f Sale ek7 20 40 80 80 100 120 140 180 Width from River Left to Right (ft) Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Figure B-31: Cross Section of Salem Creek 8 104 102 100 98 98 94 92 90 88 J,. ( ti AJ 88 0 20 40 80 80 100 120 Width from River Left to Right (ft) -1 ' 1 . o C _? ? f 1 I ' ..I , . i- 'cr t.?r_?bv?. 7::. 1._`..Y„"':Y ?.?F { ?' +'?? 4 I ? -1 ? '- =j _I ._' I I ?1- 1} ? I ? 1 F? M -' i I i •'` ?F I? f .-1 l L r ? Y ? ... L 4 .! ? _ J. ._. ] _t .1 _.'l: _J`TC'?;5? ' 1?,`1 I?'r ."l? -1.'_ I >7?'?F= ' ?_I-:'I l'_'_•C`.t'?t? ` `?`_.1 '4 C._` ? ' ?I`. .? ?_"I.: x. "' ; it r: I ? -. •1.T 1 ??. ,4 ',:l' ,.: ' I ' I.: I '{I}? I'. l.i. . I. ,..I I, L :';' Y I L ` :1 102 M 92 Figure B-32: Cross Section of Salem Creek 9 100 98 98 94 90 88 88 0 10 20 30 40 50 80 70 80 90 100 Width from River Left to Right (ft) Fi2udAr33: Cross SectlA',bf Salem?'reek 10 104 102 100 98 98 94 92 90 88 88 0 Appendix B 18 20 40 80 80 100 120 Width from River Leftto Right (ft) Winston-Salem Northern POHILItant Load Estimates Figure B-34: Cross Section of Salem Creek 11 X71 ? Y ^'+ rt i `r ? ty r Y' '1":..1$a 'M;.?. {I.'?H A' Y ^ 1 '. '(' ?' ( b;.yA ?" T.. ,:-1 -r) - 1 r Y' -1 q •• rp,?1 ! -{.r, up la - ' ` T Y C , I Z ?? tl l I 1C Y Wit' "( ?r ^? ._ w Z $'4 1Y-? .?).V Tl ?Mt T-'" 1 ?a W ?r f, ' ?} ?t-7 A,? { t t t 24 r ?1 1 Y- ) I } ;.1 l r '1 +' i I ?).L !I Y ^,I ~I fi I`ly 1 -.,)1 ` ?! , k y ? h ?` ?I a?' 1 f ' ? <I I I l ? -1! •4 I I t 0 ,1 1 ht_I t J .? ;1 +Li 1 t 4 I -. F?' L." ? •ryr`? _? ? 7tlk .? I r-,? . , ., ? ? "?r.a,..l y t r. Y X11 t ? w i (? lr a 'srryyW " , 1 r zi. t Y t `44 fir Y•" ?i-li l"J+ 1 1 ;}?tl ! t..-l'1^1.v .? 'T^1 .L / • 1"1 ?, ?I- 1 I?IK ??I-..•• I?1 1 A'4 ?I _I -• }{{?' 1 } A r{/ l•• r-?.J F? ? { Yt,11?4 ?'y?V? I ? '-1 I I ?I + hl 4 ,?-•1 I ? ? 4 F? i ?+1 } 4.? ?? I i.-1 ? 4 1 'Q ? -+-1-11 J V' ? ??I ?4 'w.l? L ? li.= l? ?`! 4 ?? f- -1 - ..?M L .! » ?.?}:< ' 1} .W V.7!, 1 +., ?'. \ 1 . , , 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Width from River Left to Right (ft) 102 100 98 96 94 92 90 88 86 Figure B-35: Cross Section of Salem Creek 12 102 100 98 g 96 94 92 90 88 88 0 Appendix B 19 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Width from River Left to Right (ft) . If Cross Sectio Salemreek 13 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Width from River Left to Right (ft) Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates Figure B-121: Cross Section of Mill Creek 2 105 100 7 i 95 9o 85 77 80 0 10 20 30 40 50 80 70 80 Width from River Left to Right (ft) 1 ?j? , w (? J 1 L -I- -i_?_LJ.. 4,..LJ + ' ' ? ' a'. I • I ' I i -I-- + ??.; + t a ',- I? E ?..',-1 . . r I I _. i.. ..-9 I ? -.? . 'ti { . I ? I ?.< . .. I. ,.t I. _?-? T. -I:'. 'Y.,I..? T.I_.K?-^I _ "I_T_f '1_ x._1-..?._ j1 ' 1 I +I- - ?n 1 I ? ''- I J I 1 -! I I 1 1. I r ?1 I 1- 1 ; . I ?4 p..I.,T .y? 1 T' I `I 9 I ? 1 ? :?1 ( I''?I 'I -1 I I I I 1:"I I `? f I' ? C I 1' i i r. Figure B-122: Cross Section of Mill Creek 3 105 100 95 90 85 80 J ?+1 I.. . rx ? .^ r I I? U ? - "? '?' il?.-i i U 4k j `i i'?'x!i.Yf Jill ? A. f + c4 Y ?'- ?? 1- 'W?WF? ?rl? d F41 n.5'^S-' 'A. t ?q'I I V? . ?y ? " ?i S dry ! Y SM 4 t ?' F F 1 r'F v' I ?.?, 1?r { ?? iC-F Ji 1 1. I .AL .? i Pp 1?)ti1 1f r /y?.Nrr 7.. ?] a ? '1 lt?tt ?? ? (.? C ? ? yy "hpf 1 1?Y t} ai y t; I ?w R F P,r?? +,??Ii ?' 0 10 20 30 40 50 80 70 80 80 105 100 40 ? 95 90 85 80 0 Width from River Left to Right (ft) Cross 5ec'o?laof Mill creek 4 Appendix B 48 10 20 30 40 50 80 70 80 90 Width from River Left to Right (ft) • • i • • Figure B-124: Cross Section of Mill Creek 5 :':? t !i? '? ? .. r" Ir ?i? ? -h-T I ',w I ,?P^t ?+l ? , r..ylr?llm T'it' -t. Ci I I.I? f ?., , * ??.. ?%+.W rr -?-r ?t? ??,w >1 -r l_'trd ?^?', W..? . ?l.1 't*. -+?NvY ?.. ?-?Yl.r i, i * ? d ? j 1 I? ?- -I h ?1 3 - ?-.I 1 k " r µ ? h-' .y .? ?-'?* ? ? kw - ? y?r .{? ? h.? ?-?:y} ?'?, y -F r- F- C «}?'i+ -1 .Z y . . Vi . _ ? . , _ ? _ r _ 1? L Z ?. I 2 7 I I_ I i 1 I , I _ ?, ? ?;?.: '.} rT-I ? ? Y,? t 1 J 1 ?._l ? f5 I ",.? --? ? I _?'?.,?Y r";? J .I, 1,:? >i_ C„ t ? -? ? t?I,? ['7t.?? x,?ifiC7 _?,`+?.?r t?_ J I°?_i? ??I ?'C? ?: ti I?+ r' K? I i r'?I I r-?- _ - e r r -1-i trl I HY ?? I t?,? i t`'? I r-? ?_... -j I I 1-- A tI I i--?H r -i r I w F 4".1- ! "-I 1 I ! I Fti t I . y w k I? cl h h- l? 1 +- i i t I ti 11 -Y W: I ?• I I t +? , I A I }- k a ,1 I{ i a .?I k I f -I 1 A I 'I ` -* 1 F 'I i 1 1 } { F -I 1 ?L 1. „a'`i t- "ca r -r?,r. - -e,= r7t'I; 7" t`r r ,` ,7..+`t ' "a,7 , „t ,r ?_,. ;.7C; r.I?. „r y:,i ...I;; C. _Irc I _?- r,1;a?°,] i. ,-ir ,_. ,?.: 'Y :, i r.:,"( _i--?t',?!r- ;r: I +-. Hw-= -it I'._? l ' t--f ?t?-r ??'i r-- ???+ t'i? ?N f' I 'I -! -I I ' y ? Ir.i ^?' I 4 "1 ? I h? l? I I- 1 1 -'II; I 11 I- Ti ??I I?? L ??1 ??,c ? 1 '1 I-' ? ? ? x .-i' i ?I i w'.: ? {; I f =1. I 7` i - a . i^ I Y. "I I i ? ? , ?u `a - ? -1 I i`T ,i-' . 0 10 20 30 40 50 80 70 80 90 Width from Rl%ar Left to Right (ft) 102 100 98 98 94 92 90 88 88 Figure B-125: Cross Section of Mill Creek 6 Appendix B 49 10 20 30 40 50 80 70 80 Width from Rlwr Left to Right (ft) Cross Sectu'of Mil meek 7 104 102 100 98 96 94 92 90 88 86 0 10 20 30' 40 60 60 70 Width from River Left to Right (ft) Figure B-128: Cross Section of Mill Creek 14 ' ?? hl L?Ll1$i '4 2' 7 T( ? -A , ?.{,. 1 1? _ ° , i ? -?-?_x;? r =t ? ;T r=-?? ?=: .?:a , 14 1 a5' - ? ? ? r4 ' ° ? • i!?j' Y1„ V 'I s t ?? .1.1. vl ? I,. I? ttY I'?' lf?f? Y tt :'?7 k+TlFY'.M+I {i:. fi?{Y. aLL:?? yJ?•`?.y: W{r 4. -1 -I'.-l rF? F.+; I --yh'.MA Y .i 1??` 1'?f.N . • `?1 ?T?l 'M1d ??4 ?LH ? p "? `+LµtW-?+?,?f?lk tt-- ? w??L} + 111FF A1 p 2llu? ? .1 h?iyyV M y {4' p?l ? J ? I?.t ? ?. ?t t ? ? ? ?? ?? ? ? k# ? , S ?" ? - 1 ?+? ?? ?, ?? a? ? , "+? -e ?dW ?? -;_ r t 'i ,??F°,. 1 .. ? 'fir x "r' ' .: M 92 0 10 20 30 40 50 80 70 102 100 98 v 98 94 90 88 66 Figure 94 102 100 96 88 94 92 90 88 86 0 IZ, Appendix B Width from River Left to Right (ft) Cross Secti6f NM., reek 15 50 10 20 30 40 50 80 Width from River Left to Right (ft) i I i r Figure B-130: Cross Section of Mill Creek 16 102 100 98 98 94 92 90 88 88 . l I I C"7 I't L.? ??' G,1? _ ? _ XS T ,ia •' l':'r" T f ?, 'C ? r G' "1 t C? 1 -I '7 ti x !r. .? C 7 C ?'x '?I I T I. 7 , C ? _. ? i r i` I ?I , h d r Y r r h t h _ I L 'J r a? 1 1 l ? I_ L I .? '. 1 4 t r L - -f'-1-?-fi. I-r- 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Width from River Left to Right (ft) Figure B-131: Cross Section of Mill Creek 17 102 100 98 98 94 lD 92 90 88 88 20 30 40 0 10 Figure ] 102 100 98 98 94 92 90 88 86 0 Appendix B Width from River Left to Right (ft) Cross Sectidgf Mill Creek 18 av 51 10 20 30 40 av 60 Width from River Left to Right (ft) Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates Figure B-133: Cross Section of Mill Creek 19 102 100 98 4 ?4 96 1 94 ?.i ` "' ' ' L 1 is ? r? I I ?l C a i • 1 . I _A „ x:. a i '. _ i .. ?? P f m 92 90 '; • 66 86 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Width from Rher Left to Right (ft) t any ?:- ?? - xv ? ?\ 89 0.h Yµ `,'F y?y r. ,n.?rt > ? IM;v4h y+ I t S" I 1f `` n T {,,Z y µl it N t ? i 1 ..,? C ? Y.h? I ? ,1 i ? a , i. {: y _ N.c ?. V .1? a 1,^ 1- {y - II II '.V } 4 d Y ;. L _,.F? a _ ? qq r _k ,v '-` l.? tir. 1- 7 .4 .. ? _ y llx?.r .a _. i.?--1'?4_; _•1i? I. ?=. I _ ?;,, LLI 1:.yl ..1- i a_:.:-? ,.?°i a= _- Appendix B 52 Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates Appendix C: Projected Land Cover Development This appendix presents the details of the land cover projections and includes two tables. Table C-1 depicts the land cover changes from the existing conditions scenario to the no- build scenario. Table C-2 shows the land cover changes from the no-build scenario to the build-out scenario. The land cover analyses are based on assessipg the changes within each of the AnnAGNPS model cells. The tables list only ,Ahe AnnAGNPS cells where there is a projected land cover change. To illustrate this ;"?Tigure 61depicts the existing conditions land cover for the AnnAGNPS cells chose the future Dell Facility. C-1: AnnAGNPS Cells in the Vicinity if the P+N FOWNW Based on th l d cover a tlysis, under the no-build scenario cells 5473 and 5472 will , :;., s shift from pasturel13q; lc?v-intensity developed (Table C-1), and will shift from ow- intensity developed to high-intensity developed under the build-out scenario (Table C-2). However, cells 5471 and 5492 will shift from pasture to high intensity developed under the no-build scenario (Table C-1) and are not mentioned in Table C-2, since the highway construction will not dictate the construction of the Dell Facility. Appendix C U-1 164 0 U b a z O P64 i a H ?f rn ? Of v) c rn ? c O? rn ? v 1 ? ? N ? C rn N ? c cv ? t 0 N c v N ? ? ? c0 c0 m c e r ? d N N N N N d ? N d d N O N N d d c c c c c c c c c c c c c c c c c a a? a. a. 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C C C C C N C d C C C C C C C C ; , t L t t t t L t L r 01-1 L Z J J J = _ = 2 = = J J J = = J J J = J J J 2 J J J J _ ? J J r,. PI t,1 Vii. ^?h%?? ,°y+F!''y ow ? ` N E 12 2 N ? a 2 5 T w LD L? N N L N ? ?' N P? ?" C N N N N N d N JE N a a O LL N a IL N L i t? O LL N a N a N a O LL O LL O LL O U. N O O v LL O LL O LL O" LL O ?IL O LL LL O LL O LL O LL O LL O LL . C 3 0 J N In N ti M O N O M N N M N N M M M M O N r- M r N CO) M pp c7 N O M CM M M ti It M It N ? (M ?A to M to O to O CD N p ?G M N OD M 2 M 2 M c0 co T_ I*- co O C) M v' N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N V a c d CL U U) E ? E ? E E E E ? E ' d E d E a? E m E d ?I ,E N n E m; , ,VV 'i3 * a•a? E g E m E d co E d co E 0 co u? E 0 co v? E d E m E A2 m E an E d (a E -9 E ;? v? c1 CJ c U a yc U m qc? U a? yc U a? act U d c ? a? yc? CJ `m Qc1 U u qc? U •. C S, ?, '' C y C wy, C C Oj C j C ? 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C N i° c N d N N N d N C ? r c c c ? c c c c c c c c c c c c - c . c c L L L . 0 L .0 ?f _ f C ( m 3 J 3 J L = L = 3 J ? ? ? 3 O 3 J rn 2: 3: 1 : _ = E J J = J = J 1 = 1 r N r M ?- N cLn M N 1n r ?cpp N ccc?0r? cM c0 ?j N pp cn pp M N aOt N eta r eN} aNt M eNh N dM' M sMt N ? M ? r N ?eAt M ? N c0 M CID N r-_ M t- N c'M C) M cn co m M cn M C7 M M M c ? M M M M M M M ? M ? M M c? uo 6 V x V c a a Q E m E g? E m E m E a? E a? E m< ' ° r }? ??i` y E iw E a? E m E m E m - E m E m E a? E a? - E m E m E a? E a? E a? - E d - E d E a? - E a? E m ? E a? E a? E m c? m c ?o 'm o - 10 m o ?v 0 c? o m ?o o o m v? o m ca c3 0 ?v 0 O ?} 1 V? O 0 0 0 4- 0 V- 0 W 0 0 ?fi tl??1? O O O O O W O O ?F- O M- O V? O 4- O I O W O 46 O *8 O w O 18 O w O T C l p ' y T 0 0 0 0 U U U U U U U U U U U j: ill U ;+ U U; ; U ( , ? U U V L. 0 0 0 .h A f? yyy ? O p ? ? ? ? ? o o c? ' °' ? ? ? o D :F? O c O a ? O O O «(///??? N N N N VVV??? N N VVV??? VVV??? 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C=D a , a a A S C:gl Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimate Appendix D: Nutrient Loading From Livestock Table D-1: Estimated Nitrogen (1) and Phosphorous (P) Production and Manure Application Rates for each Subbasin. 2 130 1620.1 17964.4 10873.2 11.09 6.71 3 114 928.0 15852.0 9594.6 17.08 10.34 4 89 1264.2 12317.9 7455.6 9.74 5.90 5 155 1275.6 21562.3 13050.9 16.90 10 6 64 965.8 8924.5 5401:7 .9.24 5.59 59 8 104 1843.6 14400.4 8.1.6.1' 781 4.73 10 53 236.9 7353.9 A451".0 31:U4 18.79 11 73 919.7 10137.6 6135.9 11.02' 6.67 12 129 1701.9 17931.1 0853.1;: 10.54 6.38 13 68 783.6 9495.4 `1' : 47 2`. ' 12.12 7.33 14 157 1301.7 21830.0 13 16.77 10.15 15 38 392.0 581.7 31&° . 13.47 8.16 16 88 740.0 1 4$?6 7413.6&', ; 16.55 10.02 17 77 1139.7 107 8:4 6493.5 9.41 5.70 19 32 430.0 449%,',4 10.46 6.33 20 90 89 . 124137 7 13.89 8.41 21 98 95 s± :-., 13555.2x;' 8204':4 14.11 8.54 22 42 360.6 %" 5884.3 3561.5 16.32 9.88 23 106 1.158.1 , 14637.0 ?. ° 8859.2 12.64 7.65 24 138 2.34.1 , r : ?wa;196.9 11558.6 8.95 5.42 25 82 53 6860.0 21.28 12.88 26 6 794.Q-','J,:, 3652.9 2210.9 4.60 2.78 27 62 559.4 M=.,8575.8 5190.6 15.33 9.28 28' 27 8'8 44.9 2266.7 96.46 58.38 30 :.191 10 S 3 ` 26432.3 15998.5 25.78 15.60 31 '242 293' 33627.5 20353.5 11.46 6.94 32 6,, 1751 869.6 526.4 4.97 3.01 33 182 1352.9 25300.3 15313.4 18.70 11.32 34 103 1244.8 14305.7 8658.7 11.49 6.96 35 338 2653.3 46814.0 28334.8 17.64 10.68 36 56 517.6 7747.6 4689.3 14.97 9.06 37 48 775.4 6697.8 4053.9 8.64 5.23 38 189 2618.3 26270.8 15900.7 10.03 6.07 39 103 1431.5 14234.5 8615.6 9.94 6.02 40 76 832.6 10499.2 6354.8 12.61 7.63 41 88 1353.3 12266.6 7424.5 9.06 5.49 42 18 91.1 2535.6 1534.7 27.84 16.85 44 107 1069.6 14847.7 8986.8 13.88 8.40 Appendix D 11111111111111115ne Appendix E: Septic System Estimates E.1 Septic System Estimates The number of households in the City of Winston-Salem that are potentially connected to a sewer system was determined using the projected number of households on sewage systems in Forsyth County. In 2003, 88,811 out of a total of 133,072 households in Forsyth County were identified as being connected to a sewer system. Since the City of Winston-Salem contains approximately 82,593 households,.,4ll households in the City were assumed to be connected to the sewer system. Tbe' reng 6,218 houses in Forsyth County connected to sewer were assumed tee, be. located- -j' towns adjacent to Winston-Salem. The number of households on;: sewage systems wi14 each city was estimated based on their proximity to Winston Salem (Table E-1). The retfming 4,749 households within the watershed were assumed to'.iYge septic tanks as their method of waste disposal. The septic tanks wereestimated to be lpq?ated in the towns outside of Winston-Salem, was dependent on the nt} it1Yg£:iouseholdseach town. Each town is situated within either one or two subbass (Tp916M1)r Depending on the number of subbasins per town, tb, ",,i" ?olds conne}tied to septic tanks were evenly distributed ift'N he pree locations d`fthe households were not available. within these areas s Table E-1:1Op census a an c mank Estimates for Forsyth County an 4 *M' Portion q? e ,sin i"rshe d. v Forsyth Co. 60,x.+; 133,072 88,811 43 600 City of Winston 1850 6 82,593 1.00 82,593 82,593 0 Salem Lewisville 8 826 3,501 0.30 1,050 210 840 Clemmons 13,827 5,614 0.50 2,807 2,386 421 Bethania 354 148 1.00 148 148 0 Tobaccoville 2,209 944 0.60 566 3 563 Rural Hall 2,464 1,160 0.85 986 4 982 Walkertown 4 009 1,793 0.80 1,434 287 1,148 Kemersville 17,126 7,950 0.50 3,975 3,180 795 Total 234.591 103,703 93,560 88 811 4 749 Appendix E 1 A a r? W z "ad Cry W W cj? O a O Ca QI y y cn 4 r RA O ? Fn ? ?a d ?w W O W O Ctt .% H W N 0 F N 0 ii N 0 FF N 0 + N 0 + N 0 FF N 0 N i p N O N p FF N + N 0 F N + W co CR w co O w M ti w t- M W CA ti W (A Ni w O ti W W O) w O r W 0 co w 0 LO w 0 M •- CO 't M CO) M M M er T' T' g ++ w O t. w O ti w N d w L(? w ?p M w CO M w CO co w N et w N v: w pp lt7 w r O w O O w r O CO CO (V r r r r T r r In ? o W O w O M w cD w CMD w o W 0 w 0 W r W r W N _w w O W p r r Ch (V CV CV CV CV CV CV ? l^M ? TR T ^Tr T ^T T rr T T 0 T T T T 8 r + w q w O w CNO w Ci w 0 w 0 w 0 w 0 w 0 w w ti p wp LA w plD LO LC) r r r ?- ? r M ? M O F + o + + p O p O p O W 04 w C14 W M N W M M W N CO W N CO W N CO W CA CO W O CO W O O W ti O w w CO W ti CO Co Co co CV r T r T r CV O CV CO S ,,O O S F' '' F + i F F W w W W A t. W w JLO W r Sy W co C WM) M W M C WCTr? M Ch d d r:? . 1 ,z CJ O O$ r tC" co T r 4 r ;. L rQ 4 4 4 W ? 4 Ll7 Q w Q w T w k Q WW ' . ` r N CO r*-: N CO N Cp a " d p Ln L h? p ,1n, N M iii r Co co kY .,,a h f r F g F g + $ W F g W w '` W 7 W p 'O+ W g + W $ + W g i W g FAD pWp cD p Wppp cG O p ppp c? st ?F a Ln. L I- N p p O " r T CC) et M M m m m m r LO r 9 T 9 0 + } r 9 T 9 T 9 r r Q rn ;'F 9 r' , ? W CWp d CO w r QW? O Owi O Ow i O L ?ij d L Vd M I CO) 1 " ? : f r r O O O O ? M.i ', ry 2 '27 QQ QQ QQ QQ QQ QQ OQ S+ CQ7 QQ S +1 + t W N N 'L W 0 t C Wp O t M CO t e 3 . T d W' . t t at L . N ti t N r• t rn ti w cw0 CO t N co CV CV a Ln et ?t st st ?t ?' r CO ? N 4 N 4 N 4 N 4 N 2 N 4 N 2 N 4 N 4 N 4 N 4 N 4 N 4 crD CTO r0 C p O (V N N N . N tC) O N wp CO N N r ttj Co M' M M M m r r CO r CO r r O M ~ N ? N m N O N CO N Cw N 0 ~ co co O O r Cp CO T O ti (O r CA d' M O M M O M M CO M O O M O O M O N d' O ? T p tQ O ? ?"' N M el CO CO r r ti r 0 ?- O N el N N cM M M ?. ? 4 ? r ij t n :u???NA ?iI J p'gkTM` x 7 la, #v: i'. N O C CL =f Appendix F: Stream Flow and Water Quality Data F.1 Stream Flow Data Analysis of available USGS stream flow data indicated that no available on streams located within the study area. However, b collected at three gages within the study area. Flow data were col 02115856, Salem Creek near Atwood, from 1975 to 1982. considerable recent growth that has occurred in Forsyth Co;fiy a area, flow data collected in the 1970's and early 1980' e hkeI current conditions. More recent flow data were colle:Oed"'at two a Flow data were collected from 1988 to 1991 at UGS station 0211 Muddy Creek near Muddy Creek, NC, and at & 7statio ,2115 Muddy Creek near Clemmons, NC. Daily mean f1Abt. a collet these stations are plotted in Figure F=" ,,,,The location of VSGS p° study area is presented in Figure F-2.r Figure F-1: Daily Mean flow t flow data were flow data were at USGS station ver, due to the Winston-Salem reflective of the the mainstem j.„outh Fork 1988-1991 at ;es within the Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates Figure F-2: Location of USGS Flow Gages within Study Area r , a ,. - , y x,,l" -b 1 ' } ? ? ' ?' ? t+ ' •1,, J ?4 1 •, •+•-. r ^ ! y t ? a. ? > -4? II ' • ? ? I? r, t, y ?„ . J)Y' Y M1 r ? 4j ? 1? u^ -.. Vie! yw. 4k y ?? 1. l'? .. ,?. .y + • J ^ 1 y. ? % JAIL A2L J ?•_?J USGSQ2115800 Muddy Creek rrr Muddy Creek NC USGS021 I5800 South Fork Muddy Lek nr Clammans, NC h 1'. 't ?' r•?y,Ry t, ?+, Off' '"'? -"', "4,.` , -,..• e ?Y ' U3GS Fl Data N Winston-Salem Beltway Study Area Streams E Forsyth County Boundary Del Ineated Study Area S /",\/ treanns • a 0 41, IYllba¦ Appendix F 2 • Mkimm mm - • • -, Appendix G: Observed Pollutant Loads G.1 South Fork Muddy Creek Feb-88 1104.0 124.6 5.4 7 1.63 Mar-88 834.0 56.7 4.1 1.23 Apr-88 794.0 55.0 3.9 1.18 Ma -88 973.0 131.2 4.8 14,44 Jun-88 445.9 18.7 2.2 `:66w Jul-88 383.7 18.5 1.9 0.57 Aug-88 394.3 29.2 1.9 0.58 Sep-88 711.6 66.1 3.5 Oct-88 640.0 58.4 3.1 Nov-88 1303.0 391.0 6.4` Dec-88 662.0 38.9 3'3 0.98 Jan-89 964.0 85.0 44 7 1.43 Feb-89 2456.0 1410.0 3.64 Mar-89 3837.0 2022.2' 5.68 Apr-89 1580.0 223.7 7.8 2.34 May-89 2371.0 864.0 11.7 A b, 3.51 Jun-89 1509.0 291 .1 7.4 .23 Jul-89 1114.0 185.9 'Y 1.65 Aug-89 1548.0 486.3 2.29 Sep-89 2050.0 771.9 - v' 0 1 3.03. Oct-89 4027.0 00., 4.3 _F," 19.8 s' 5.96 Nov-89 1601.Q ,0 {-7.9 2.37 Dec-89 2005 ;°`' 5 1 11.9.9 2.97 Jan-90 3617.0 'N 1Z% 3 ft '#7.8 5.35 Feb-90 4549.0 "22.4 6.73 Mar-90 3.1 a?Q >; 9.6 2.89 Apr-90 .-z 192 '.4. ;, 7 9.5 2.86 Ma 2615.0 " . 6;, , 12.9 3.87 Jun= ':';. 1265.0 136.8&r," 6.2 1.87 Jul-90 815.0 N-w 65.0'.' 4.0 1.21 Aug-90 ?j, •831.0 69.0 4.1 1.23 Sep-90 '449. 0 50.5 2.9 0.89 Oct-90 5 Oft 6170.8 25.5 7.69 Nov-90 202.4 6.7 2.01 Dec-90 1974. s° 477.3 9.7 2.92 Jan-91 3256.0 1150.0 16.0 4.82 Feb-91 1168.0 116.3 5.7 1.73 Mar-91 4402.0 3431.6 21.6 6.52 Apr-91 3062.0 1491.3 15.1 4.53 May-91 3529.0 2164.5 17.4 5.22 Jun-91 1371.0 175.4 6.7 2.03 Jul-91 836.0 63.9 4.1 1.24 Aug-91 688.0 50.1 3.4 1.02 Se -91 497.0 24.2 2.4 0.74 Appendix G Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates) G.2 Malnstem Muddy Creek Feb-89 4957.0 2091.9 4.4 ! 7.34 Mar-88 4159.0 1167.9 20.4 6.16 Apr-88 4085.0 1194.9 20.1 6.05 May-88 3715.0 1044.1 18.3 5.50 Jun-88 2819.0 621.9 13.9 4.17 Jul-88 2638.0 610.0 13.0 3.90 Aug-88 3022.0 1045.9 14.9 4.47 Sep-88 3828.0 1404.7 18.8 5:67 Oct-88 3652.0 2030.4 18.0 5.41 Nov-88 4861.0 4244.7 23.9 7.20 Dec-88 2345.0 407.1 11.5 347 Jan-89 4539.0 1511.9 22.3 6`72;,<. Feb-89 8955.0 12297.2 44.0 13.25:'- Mar-89 13051.0 18709.2 64.2 19.32 Apr-89 6572.0 3296.7 32.3 9.73 May-89 13039.0 20926.0 64:1 19.30 Jun-89 8282.0 6487.2 40.7 12.26 Jul-89 5551.0 2495 .4 27.3 8.22 Aug-89 7111.0 4556.4 35.0 =10.53 Sep-89 8154.0 8361.8 12.07 Oct-89 16252.0 58479.7 24.06 Nov-89 5353.0 °;2745.8 26.3 7.92 Dec-89 7581.0 37.3 11.22 Jan-90 1264, 140$7.1 62.2 18.71 Feb-90 14382 j 19??-15.0 "x70.7 21.29 Mar-90 8444.0 ?d41 ,,`41.5 12.50 Apr-90 ? . , 'l 4 37.1 37.1 11.18 May-90,,+ ; ; y 13295 ' ; 1 ` 50.8 65.4 19.68 Jun- 3850.0 .'-,. 1025 8 ?;> 18.9 5.70 Jut=90r? 3564.0 ru, 1057.1 ` 17.5 5.28 Aug-90 ,,.3859.0 1199.7 19.0 5.71 Sep-90 98.0 879.6 14.7 4.44 Oct-90 ,.0 79397.0 110.3 33.22 Nov-90 598 3415.7 29.4 8.85 Dec-90 9580.x;.''' 8622.4 47.1 14.18 Jan-91 12329.0 14481.1 60.6 18.25 Feb-91 5274.0 1981.0 25.9 7.81 Mar-91 17661.0 _ 55917.4 86.8 26.14 Apr-91 11891.0 18601.7 58.5 17.60 May-91 11745.0 20820.1 57.7 17.38 Jun-91 5279.0 2309.3 26.0 7.81 Jul-91 4424.0 1289.0 21.8 6.55 Aug-91 5171.0 2022.1 25.4 7.65 Sep-91 3390.0 796.6 16.7 5.02 Appendix G • • F.2 USGS Water Quality Monitoring Data Ambient water quality data was obtained from the USGS, which collected water quality data at seven stations on streams identified as waters of concern, including three stations on Salem Creek, two stations on the Muddy Creek mainstem, one station on Silas Creek, and one station on the South Fork Muddy Creek. Mean, minimum, and maximum total suspended solids, total phosphorus, and nitrate + nitrite concentrations are summarized in Table F-1. The available USGS water quality data were the data used to calibrate the water quality components of the AnnAGNPS and GWLF models. Table F-1: Summary of USGS Water Quality Data Muddy Creek at NC 65 at Bethama, hz" NC „ x 4988-149 n ?:. 9 107 264 Silas Creek near Clemmons, NC 19F3`1989 9 1 143 750 Total Suspended Salem Creek at SR2657 at Quthrie, NC 1988X $ 9 3 112 357 Solids Salem Creek near Atwood N 1977-197' ?R 26 8 595 2520 (mg/L) Salem Creek near Mudd Cree _. NC 1191" --198, 9" 8 13 94 440 Mudd Creek now .Muddy Cree N,CY, 19 ";-.: 89 37 5 317 1430 South Fork . near ClemC gek n 1977-1989 35 4 532 3310 Muddy re NC at Bethama, NC . 1988-1989 9 0.02 0.13 0.28 O j1°' ear M? ons; 1988-1989 9 0.02 0.12 0.29 Total Phosphe alem Cr SR2 t Guthrie, -. C 1988-1989 9 0.02 0.12 0.30 s (mg/L em Creek n twood, NC 1977-1979 26 NA NA NA P04) Creek ne udd Creek, NC 1988-1989 8 0.02 1.53 3.00 Mu reek n Mudd Creek NC 1970-1989 37 0.33 0.96 2.00 y Creek near South Clemmon PP, 1977-1989 35 0.04 0.33 1.20 Muddy C ek at NC 65 at Bethania, NC 1988-1989 9 0.20 0.40 0.60 Silas Creek near Clemmons, NC 1988-1989 9 0.30 0.88 2.60 Nitrate + Salem Creek at SR2657 at Guthrie, NC 1988-1989 9 0.40 0.54 0.80 Nitrite Salem Creek near Atwood, NC 1977-1979 26 NA NA NA (mom) Salem Creek near Mudd Creek, NC 1988-1989 8 0.40 2.85 7.50 Mudd Creek near Mudd Creek, NC 1970-1989 0.10 1.46 3.80 South Fork Muddy Creek near Clemmons, NC 1977-1989 ff35 0.50 0.93 2.60 Appendix F 3 F.3 North Carolina Division of Water Quality Moniti The North Carolina Division of Water Quality (DWQ) monitors stj North Carolina for a variety of chemical parameters. DWQ conducts ar, at two stations within the study area. Monitoring station Q2510000 is Creek at the Elledge Wastewater Treatment Plant (WWTP) in Monitoring station Q2600000 is located on the Muddy Creek mains- 2995, near Muddy Creek NC. Data on total suspended solids,,, total nitrate + nitrite concentrations were collected at both stat}o6, and gene Figures F-3 to F-5. Total suspended solids concentrations' wqr w ,. stations but were elevated on several occasions, ? articular'ly tiin (Q2600000). Observed total phosphorus and 41 ate' + nitrate cd typically higher in Muddy Creek (Q2600000)k" an in Salem Creek (I location of the monitoring stations is presented in F16resF=6. Figure F-3: Total Suspended Solids Cort x Hons at Monitoring Stations 250 200 pv 150 'O . 100 N b F 50 0 1/1/1998 5/18/1999 9/27/2000 2/9/2002 Date Data hroughout nonitoring on Salem at state road sphorus , and present ed in low at both sddy C reek. rations were 6`0060). The a ?. Figure F-4: Total Phosphorus Concentrations at Figure F-S: Nitrate + Appendix F { s- l G^ i , i 33 i li i 'Ff 3? Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant LoRc Figure F-6: Location of DWQ Water Quality Monitoring Stations .,e I 44, 1 I if M" j :a r 1 T., J, y *. A'. 14A t'A' DWQ Water Quality Stations N Winston-ftlern Beltway Study Area Streams W E Forsyth Coup Boundary Delineated Study Area S beams a 0 9 Mies F i . 6 Appendix F ?. • LTITHM F.4 Forsyth County Water Quality Monitoring Data The Forsyth County Environmental Affairs Department (EAD) has developed a county- wide water quality monitoring program that serves as an informational database from which the impact of urban growth and other activities can be assessed. Beginning in 1996, EAD contracted with the Environmental Quality Institute (EQI) at the University of North Carolina-Asheville to perform the laboratory analysis and provide an annual summary for samples collected by the department at 12 sites throughout the county, including 8 stations located on the streams of concern piously identified in this section. Streams are monitored eight times annually wigk" im of obtaining equal samples from base flow (no rain in more than 72 hours) ,and stort#Jlow (attempting to sample within the first 2 hours of a storm event Vvith greater than 0 ri :inch of rainfall) conditions. Water quality data collected ftojp,Septeiri"r 1996 to 16e, 2002 are summarized in Table F-2. The data indicate that ,"osphorus and nitrate nitrogen concentrations were similar under b*; storm and baso total suspended solids concentrations wry dated during si of the streams of concern. Appendix F conditions, but that mean conditions in most 7 Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates Table F-2: Summary of Forsyth County Water Quality Data from 1996 to 2002 SF Muddy 26 0 12 28 19 2 61 252 Crk Lower 26 2 27 370 19 1 82 474 Mudd Crk Total Salem Crk 26 3 15 57 19 2 64 211 Suspended Silas Crk 27 0 2 12 21 1 83 290 Solids Upper 27 0 6 38 21 0 38 268 (mg/L) Mudd Crk Kerners 27 2 13 68 - 2j', 3 52 149 Mill Crk . Little Crk 27 0 9 86 21 1 227 952 Mill Crk 27 0 5 20::.-., 21 2. 81 412 SF Muddy 26 0.15 0.37 0.89 19 0.1 4 0.46 0.91 Crk Lower 26 0.41 3.5 4 " 9 81 x,19 0.38 2.59 6.40 Mudd Crk Salem Crk 26 0.58 5.43 1O:a 19 0.36 3.54 10.10 Total Silas Crk 27 0.43 0.27 0.58 21 0.11 0.48 1.61 Phosphorus (mg/L P04) Upper 27 0.16 ''Uy41J 1.07 x ? „,.- 0.12 0.46 1.54 Mudd. Crk , r Kerners 27 0.13 ?0 29„ -?'4; ,K . y;•.21 0.17 0.43 0.96 Mill Crk Little Crk F,PF 0.14 0.58 21 0.20 0.89 3.90 Mill Crk 27 "O 0.22 0.2 0.86 21 0.18 0.70 2.47 SF Mudd y ql&26 0.20 0 88" c'''1.20 ' 19 0.50 1.09 1.50 Crk Lo r... 6.75 19 1.20 2.25 3.70 ` y"'Salem Crk '1 ?26 ?J 0.90 4.06 8.50 19 1.20 2.91 4.90 Nitrated l Silas Crk Nift 7 a 0.50 1.00 21 0.10 0.80 1.70 Nitrog6 er 04 X (mg/L) f' 0.10 0.70 2.40 21 0.20 0.72 1.80 Crk Kea ` '' 0.40 0.79 1.40 21 0.60 1.06 2.00 Mill Little C&`{'z; 27 0.20 0.64 1.20 21 0.80 1.27 2.40 Mill Crk ? ?' 27 0.30 0.83 1.90 21 0.30 1.00 1.70 Appendix F Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates References: American Society of Agricultural Engineers, (ASAE) 1998. ASAE standards, 45th edition. Bingner, R. L., F.D. Theurer, R.G.Cronshey, R.W.Darden. 2001. AGNPS 2001 Web Site. Internet at http://www.sedlab.olemiss.edu/AGNPS.html Donigian, A.S., J.T. Love. 2003. Sediment Calibration Procedures and Guidelines for Watershed Modeling. 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