20140090 All Versions_Complete File_19970101

Michael F. Easley, Governor
W A' William G. Ross Jr., Secretary
?OC? OG North Carolina Department of Environment and Natural Resources
CO Alan W. Klimek, P.E. Director
Division of Water Quality
O 'c
August 31, 2006
Missy Dickens, PE
Planning and Environmental Branch
North Carolina Department of Transportation
1548 Mail Service Center
Raleigh, North Carolina, 27699-1548
Subject: Review of ICI Downstream Water Quality Modeling for Winston-Salem Northern
Beltway (Western Section, Easter Section, and Eastern Section Extension, TIP Projects
R-2247, U-2579, and U-25 79A, respectively), Forsyth County
Per your memo dated May 3, 2006 the Division of Water Quality has reviewed the DRAFT Pollutant
Loading Estimates for Waterbodies Potentially Impacted by the Winston-Salem Northern Beltway
Extension dated July 2005. We have the following comments:
Model Selection:
The two models, GWLF and AnnAGNPS, are appropriate for this study. Both models are capable of
predicting the impact of land management practices on water and pollutant loads with varying soils, land
uses, and management conditions. The models' performance and limitations are well documented in this
report.
Model Calibration:
Significance of model calibration is evaluated by correlating the monthly total pollutant loads estimated
by the models with the loads estimated by the regression equation. This is widely used calibration
procedure for the watershed where data are limited.
Watershed Parameter Estimation:
Parameter values adjusted for the model calibration and projection are not clearly explained in the report.
Sensitivity of following watershed parameters under the two scenarios should be incorporated in the
report:
Flow adjustment factors: Curve number, Manning's roughness coefficient, and saturated hydraulic
conductivity.
Sediment adjustment factors: Crop management factor, crop residual factor, channel erodible factor,
and channel cover factor.
Nutrient adjustment factors: Initial nutrient condition in soils and ground water, in-stream nutrient
process, fertilizer application rate, nutrient percolation coefficient, and algal biomass coefficient.
Others:
In table 4-12 (page), the estimation of annual average for simulated sediment load should be 10,241 tons
instead of 15,052 tons.
NOne Caro 'na
Q?llCII?
Transportation Permitting Unit
1650 Mail Service Center, Raleigh, North Carolina 27699-1650
2321 Crabtree Boulevard, Suite 250, Raleigh, North Carolina 27604
Phone: [phone] / FAX [phone] / Internet: htto://h2o.enr.state.nc.us/ncwetlands
An Equal Opportunity/Affirmative Action Employer - 50% Recycledl10% Post Consumer Paper
The NCDWQ appreciates the opportunity to provide comments on your project. Should you have any
questions or require any additional information, please contact Sue Homewood at 336-771-4964.
Sincerely;)
i
John Hennessy, Supervi
Transportation Permitting Unit
cc: DWQ Transportation Permitting Unit
Sue Homewood, DWQ WSRO
Michelle Woolfolk, DWQ Planning Branch, Modeling and TMDL Unit
Narayan Rajbhandari, DWQ Planning Branch, Modeling and TMDL Unit
WETLANDS 1401 GROUP
Ah.30M4
•v ?• WATER QUALITY SECTION
STATE OF NORTH CAROLINA
DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION
MICHAEL F. EASLEY LYNDO TIPPETT
GOVERNOR SECRETARY
July 27, 2004
To: John Dorney, NC MR Division of Water Quality
From: Missy Dickey E, NCDOT Project Development & Environmental Analysis Branch
Subject: Proposed'Study Area for Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Project:
Pollutant Load Estimates to Potentially Impacted Waterbodies
CC: Raed el-Farhan, PhD, The Louis Berger Group, Inc.
J. Scott Lane, AICP, The Louis Berger Group, Inc.
LeiLani Paugh, NCDOT Natural Environment Indirect & Cumulative Impact Unit
This memo details the study area proposed to examine the indirect and cumulative impacts of
pollutant loading to waterbodies within the Winston-Salem Northern Beltway project area. The
proposed Winston-Salem Northern Beltway is located within Forsyth County, North Carolina and
surrounds the city of Winston-Salem. The proposed project encompasses waterbodies that have
been identified as impaired on North Carolina's Section 303(d) list; therefore, a quantitative
analysis of pollutant loadings to waterbodies potentially affected by the project is required. The
waterbodies identified as potentially impacted by this project are presented in Figure 1, and are
described below.
The majority of the streams draining the area of the proposed beltway are located within the
Yadkin River Basin. A small section in the northern area of the proposed beltway is located on
the ridgeline between the Yadkin and Roanoke River Basins; however, the majority of pollutants
potentially generated by the project would flow south into the Yadkin River Basin, and would be
unlikely to significantly impact streams flowing north into the Roanoke River Basin. The areas of
concern for possible impacts from the proposed beltway project are located within the Yadkin
River Basin. Specific streams of concern include Muddy Creek, Salem Creek, Silas Creek, Mill
Creek, Little Creek, Kerner's Mill Creek, and the South Fork Muddy Creek.
Salem Creek was included on the 2002 North Carolina Section 303(d) list for turbidity and
biological impairment. Additionally, Salem Creek, Muddy Creek, and Little Creek are included on
North Carolina's draft 2004 Section 303(d) list. The Yadkin River Basin water quality plan also
identifies several waters of concern that may potentially be impacted by construction of the
Winston-Salem Northern Beltway. These include Mill Creek, Silas Creek, Kerner's Mill Creek, and
the South Fork Muddy Creek. Developing pollutant estimates for these waterbodies should
accurately quantify the potential impacts of the Winston-Salem Northern Beltway on streams.
Requested Action: Please verify in writing to me that this study area meets with your
approval.
If you have any questions concerning this matter, please do not hesitate to contact me at your
convenience (919.733.7844x218).
MAILING ADDRESS: TELEPHONE: [phone] LOCATION:
NC DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION FAX: [phone] TRANSPORTATION BUILDING
PROJECT DEVELOPMENT AND ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 1 SOUTH WILMINGTON STREET
1548 MAIL SERVICE CENTER WEBSITE: www.NCDOT.ORG RALEIGH NC
RALEIGH NC 27899-1548

Figure 1: Proposed Study Area for Waterbodies Impacted by the Winston-Salem Beltway
Project
N
W E
j
Muddv Creek
Mill Creek r
Silas Creek Kemers Mill Creek
Little Creek
Salem Creek
South Fork Muddy Creek
Winston-Salem Beltway
Proposed Study Area Streams Projection: North Carolina
Streams State Plane 1983
Proposed Study Area Delineation o 8 Miles
Forsyth County Boundary MENOMMM
2
J00-D ST4??,
UNITED STATES ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
y REGION 4
33 $ Q ATLANTA FEDERAL CENTER
r 61 FORSYTH STREET
?i qC PROIS6, ATLANTA, GEORGIA 30303-8960
March 22, 2007
Gregory J. Thorpe, Ph.D.
Environmental Management Director
Project Development and Environmental Analysis Branch
North Carolina Department of Transportation
1548 Mail Service Center
Raleigh, North Carolina 27699-1548
,t
SUBJECT: Winston-Salem Northern Beltway (FHW-E40325-NC): Supplemental Final
EIS Western Section TIP No. R-2247 (CEQ No. 20040058), and Final EIS
Eastern Section TIP Nos. U-2579 and U-2579A (CEQ No. 20040057)
Dear Dr. Thorpe:
In accordance with Section 102(2)(C) of the National Environmental Policy Act
(NEPA) and Section 309 of the Clean Air Act, EPA is providing comments on the subject
document which serves as a Supplemental Final Environmental Impact Statement for the
Western Section (R-2247), and a Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Eastern
Section (U-2579 and U-2579A) of the Northern Beltway, collectively referred to herein
as the FEIS. EPA appreciates the cumulative assessment of the entire Northern Beltway
by the North Carolina Department of Transportation (NCDOT) and the Federal Highway
Administration (FHWA). The total length of the project would be approximately 34
miles on new alignment. EPA commented on the previous Supplemental EIS issued for
review in October 2004, and is responding to those stated concerns. Additionally, EPA is
commenting further about impacts to migratory birds and impacts of invasive exotic plant
species. We are also commenting on the classification of `Prime Farmland' and the
discussion of impacts which should be clarified.
The benefits of having the FEIS cover the entire Northern Beltway are
overshadowed by confusing data quantification and presentation which have not been
corrected from the 2004 DEIS; and incomplete documentation of the proposed mitigation
for identified unavoidable impacts. The FEIS lacks specific information regarding
mitigation for impacts to 7-8 linear miles of surface streams. It is important for a FEIS to
disclose fully the proposed mitigation so that interested citizens and local officials can be
provided with a comprehensive plan for addressing this large amount of compensatory
action.
Erosion and sedimentation will also be a major, ongoing adverse impact. The
project would benefit from close oversight by state and local environmental officials
regarding the avoidance and minimization of impacts to surface streams. NCDOT should
strive to avoid concurrent project clearing and grading with that for private development
Internet Address (URL) • http://www.epa.gov
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in order to lessen excessive storm water runoff to small streams. EPA is hopeful that
Forsyth County's widened streamside buffer ordinance recently enacted for Abbotts
Creek, a 303(d) listed stream, will be followed and that this ordinance would be applied
to other watersheds to lessen the direct and indirect impacts of this project.
Clearing operations, which will remove 936 acres of terrestrial forest, will have
significant adverse impacts to wildlife. NCDOT should follow the federal requirements
for minimizing adverse impacts to migratory birds by minimizing/avoiding clearing
activities during nesting season. Conversely, the large amount of clearing and earth
moving unfortunately will benefit opportunistic invasive exotic plants. EPA recommends
that NCDOT follow Federal Executive Order 13112 and take proactive measures for the
detection, and prevention of spreading invasive species. Of particular note, is the
documentation of the highly invasive Japanese knotweed within the project area.
EPA is recommending that all of the environmental commitments listed in the
"Green Sheets," and each of the concerns noted in our comments be addressed in the
Record of Decision. There should be substantive commitments for follow-through to
achieve maximum avoidance, minimization, and where necessary resource compensation.
Please see the enclosed detailed comments. Overall, although some of our DEIS
comments have been addressed, we continue to have concerns about the points described
above.
Thank you for the opportunity to comment on the FEIS. Please direct inquiries to
Mr. Ted Bisterfeld (tel. [phone]) who is the Region's primary contact for this
project review.
S' cerely, III) (___
Heinz J. Mueller
Chief, NEPA Program Office
Enclosures: Detailed EPA Comments
cc: Federal Highway Administration, NC Division
US Fish and Wildlife Service, Raleigh Field Office
US Army Corps of Engineers, Wilmington District
ENCLOSURE
Detailed EPA comments on the Winston-Salem Northern Beltway FEIS
Air Quality: The area is in a designated Early Action Compact per the Conformity Rule.
This EAC will expire in December 2007. EPA recommends that the ROD include a
final verification of the project's inclusion in a conforming Long Range Transportation
Plan (LRTP) and identify mitigation for project construction and operation..
Air Quality: The NCDOT response to EPA's comment recommending further
consideration of HOV lanes indicates that the LRTP does not recommend HOV lanes for
this project. That plan states that HOV lanes may be applicable if air quality problems
worsen. The area continues to have poor air quality so it is unclear why HOV would not
be implemented in order to reduce vehicle usage but maintain future mobility. Also, it is
noted that planning is continuing for improvements to US 52 (U-2826B) through the city
including addition of two lanes. The air quality benefits and the adverse impacts to the
community should be fully considered in decisions for that project. Widening US 52 to 8
lanes was rejected by NCDOT as alternative to the Northern Beltway.
Air Quality: Page 1-35. Traffic modeling was done with US 52 at 8-lanes as it is
defined in the LRTP. This is inconsistent with the response to EPA's comment where
NCDOT indicated that such widening through the center of the city would result in
substantial environmental justice impacts. Assuming the Northern Beltway is built, EPA
recommends careful review of subsequent traffic analyses and modeling to ensure that
US 52 requires widening.
Aquatic Habitat: EPA notes the NCDOT efforts to re-survey (via aerial photography
and mapping) to document conditions, relative to residential development, stream
encroachment, etc., within the area have not changed since earlier EIS documentation.
NCDOT indicates that it was unimportant for decision-making to document the condition
of natural resources. EPA differs with this view because it is necessary to define the
status of resources, particularly aquatic habitat, in order to determine the
necessary/appropri ate mitigation for the project.
Water Quality: EPA notes the response to comment A24-12. Although the NCDOT
and FHWA lack unilateral authority to address degraded water quality, EPA notes that
transportation planning involves local agencies not just NCDOT. It is therefore
incumbent on all parties to cooperate to address degraded surface waters, since the
NCDOT project contributes to the indirect adverse effects to streams.
Compensatory Mitigation: EPA notes the response to comments at page 4-218 and
Page 6-68. NCDOT and FHWA identify the Friedberg Site as the location where the
wetland
Enclosure
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impacts from the R-2247 project are to be mitigated. The FEIS does not describe what
compensatory mitigation is available for the wetland impacts from the U-2579/U-2579A
project segments. Page 4-218 also describes approximately 9,000 total linear feet of
stream mitigation provided at the WRP Stone Mountain Park Site in Wilkes County. The
total stream impacts after avoidance and minimization efforts by the Merger team for the
project are 36,445 linear feet. NCDOT and FHWA have not proposed any specific on-
site stream restoration or mitigation efforts. There are still 27,445 linear feet of stream
impact that will require compensatory mitigation. FHWA and NCDOT should have
provided additional detail on the status of obtaining compensatory mitigation for stream
and wetland impacts. The statement in the FEIS regarding a "full analysis of the impacts
and the existing mitigation will be included in the 404/401 permitting process" is not
potentially consistent with the Section 404/NEPA Merger 01 Memorandum of
Understanding (MOU). Additional details regarding potential on-site mitigation
opportunities as well as off-site compensatory mitigation through the Ecosystem
Enhancement Program (EEP) should be available at this stage of the Section 404/NEPA
process. The fact that the EEP is not referenced or mentioned in Sections 4.17.2, 4.17.3
and 4.17.4 of the FEIS and the need for potentially 27,445 linear feet of stream mitigation
is a significant omission. EPA is not confident that compensation is near to being
resolved. FHWA and NCDOT should provide this information during concurrence point
4B meetings and prior to the issuance of the ROD.
Federal Species of Concern/State Listed Species, Pages 3-104 & 105: EPA
acknowledges the North Carolina legal protection afforded to Federal and State
endangered, threatened and species of concern. It may be important to note that while the
Loggerhead Shrike (Lanius ludovicianus ludovicians) is a State-listed species of Special
Concern, it is also afforded potential protection under the Migratory Bird Treaty Act of
1918, as amended by the Migratory Bird Treaty Reform Act of 2004.
Invasive Exotic Plant Species, Pages 3-83 to 3-92 and Pages 4-198 to 4-204: The
FEIS lists a number of invasive exotic plant species present within the project study
corridor under the descriptions of certain terrestrial biotic communities, including
Chinese privet (Ligustrum sinense), Japanese honeysuckle (Lonicera japonica) and
others. However, the FEIS fails to include other significant, highly invasive exotic plant
species, including Japanese knotweed (Reynoutria japonica { Weakley, 2006 }; Fallopia
japonica or Polygonum cuspidatum), Tree of Heaven (Ailanthus altissima), Mimosa or
Silktree (Albizia julibrissin) and Kudzu (Pueraria montana). While all of these highly
invasive species are present in the project study corridor and can impact terrestrial
communities, EPA has environmental concerns particularly for Japanese knotweed as it
can thrive in both terrestrial and riparian habitats. Colonies of Japanese knotweed can
Enclosure
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already be found along the I-40 and 1-40 Business highway corridors, including one
colony in the preferred alternative project area west of Kemersville and east of Salem
Lake (a water supply). The proposed project is 34.2 miles in length, has approximately
936 acres of terrestrial forest impacts (1.46 square miles) and 53,352 linear feet of stream
impact (non-mitigatable and mitigatable). The potential to substantially spread Japanese
knotweed into riparian areas is a significant direct impact that was not addressed in the
FEIS and could have long-term and indirect impacts to water quality within the project
study area. Although invasive exotic plant species are referenced in the FEIS, FHWA
and NCDOT did not address the requirements of E.O. 13112. The E.O. requires the
Lead Federal Agency to prevent the introduction of invasive species, detect and respond
rapidly to and control populations of such species in a cost-effective and environmentally
sound manner, monitor invasive species populations accurately and reliably and provide
restoration of native species and habitat conditions in ecosystems that have been invaded.
Japanese knotweed in many areas of the U.S., including North Carolina, is spreading
exponentially through human activities such as mowing near riparian areas, placement of
fill dirt or quarry stone with rhizomes, etc. EPA and other resource agencies believe that
there is credible scientific evidence that Japanese knotweed can adversely impact native
wildlife habitat (Blossey, Nuzzo and Maerz, 2006). There is also empirical evidence that
colonies of Japanese knotweed can increase winter time bank erosion rates and cause
long-term degradation to water quality. The potential costs to completely eradicate
Japanese knotweed once it has become established can be very substantial ($1,200 to
$10,000 per acre). Considering the location of at least one existing colony of Japanese
knotweed near designated water supply and critical water supply areas, the problem of
managing and controlling knotweed in these areas is extremely difficult. EPA believes
that FHWA and NCDOT should fully examine the issue and compliance with the E.O. in
the Record of Decision (ROD) and develop an avoidance, minimization and mitigation
strategy with input from the resource agencies for invasive exotic plant species with an
emphasis on preventing the uncontrolled spread of Japanese knotweed.
Prime Farmland, Pages 3-71 to 3-72 and Pages 4-146-to 4-152: On page 4-149 of the
SFEIS/FEIS, it is stated that a small amount of land crossed by the Preferred Western
Alternative (R-2247) is currently zoned agriculture. It is also stated that the Preferred
Alternative skirts the Rural Area designation north of Yadkinville Road based upon the
Growth Management Plan (Figure 3-2). The SFEIS/FEIS did not provide the actual
impact to either the agriculturally zoned area or the Rural Area designation based upon
the footprint of the Preferred Alternative. This information should be quantified in the
ROD. EPA also notes on page 4-149 that the statement "no mitigation for farmland loss
is required for the project" (in accordance with the Farmland Protection Policy Act -
FPPA). The FPPA and regulations contained at Title 7 of the Code of Federal
Regulations, Part 658, require that "Federal agencies consider alternative actions, as
appropriate, that could lessen adverse effects". In NEPA nomenclature, this is essentially
Enclosure
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avoidance and minimization and not `formal' mitigation in the context of `creating' or
`restoring' prime farmland. The issue of "mitigation" for farmland loss is repeated on
page 4-151 for U-2579 and on page 4-152 for U-2579A. There appears to be substantial
confusion by certain parties on the requirements of the FPPA. EPA highlights this issue
because the information in the SFEIS/FEIS is quite confusing. EPA notes that Tables 4-
47, 4-48, and 4-49 in the SFEIS/FEIS impacts are for Prime and State/Locally Important
Farmland soils, and that none of the preferred alternatives impact Prime or State/Locally
Important Farmlands under the NRCS Land Assessment and Site Assessment (LESA)
criteria (Reference: 7 CFR Section 658.4(c)(2). Sites receiving a total score of less than
160 need not be given further consideration for protection and no additional sites need to
be evaluated). EPA notes that page 3-72 identifies that there are 62,005 acres of prime
farmland soils and 72,285 acres of state and locally important farmland soils in all of
Forsyth County. Based upon Figure 3-6, it appears that approximately 17 farms are
identified as participating in the Farmland Preservation Program in Forsyth County and
that they represent only a few thousand acres. None of these designated farms are
impacted from the proposed project. This issue could have been more clearly highlighted
in Section 4.12.8 along with the statement that none of the preferred alternatives for R-
2247, U-2579 or U-2579A impact parcels participating in the Farmland Preservation
Program and that a majority of actual agricultural areas where the soils are identified as
being prime or state/locally important farmland otherwise meet the specific NRCS
criteria for protection under FPPA. The Table 4-47 impact figures do not match up to the
text description of impacts on pages 4-148 and 4-149. What is even more confusing to
EPA is the information contained in Table 4-88 for Combined Direct Environmental
Consequences on pages 4-258 and 4-259 that lists 1,380 acres of Prime, Statewide and
Local Important Farmland (not soils) for the preferred alternatives for R-2247, U-2579
and U-2579A. If one adds the `text' information on pages 4-148 and 4-151 the Table 4-49
information, the `prime farmland impact' is 1,379.6 acres, but the actual impact is to
prime farmland soils, and not the regulatory definition of a prime farmland. This is
further complicated by the format of Table 4-88 that lists 369 acres of agriculture and
1,160 acres of maintained/disturbed land just above the environmental issue of Acres of .
Prime, Statewide and Local Important Farmland. The entire sections on `prime farmland'
need to be clarified and simplified in the ROD. The actual impact to prime, unique and
statewide and locally important farmland appears to be 0 acres based upon coordination
and consultation with NRCS.
F W A T? Michael F. Easley, Governor
Q? ,,.•.. q William G. Ross Jr., Secretary
1QCR\ °° QG North Carolina Department of Environment and Natural Resources
Uj 7 Alan W. Klimek, P.E. Director
> Division of Water Quality
March 23, 2007
MEMORANDUM
To: Melba McGee r
Through: John Henness
From: Sue Homewood, Division of Water Quality, Winston-Salem Regional Office
Subject: Comments on the Final Environmental Impact Statement related to proposed Winston-
Salem Northern Beltway from existing US 52 south to Existing I-40 Business and I-40
Business south to US 311 and Supplemental Final Impact Statement related to proposed
Winston-Salem Northern Beltway from existing US 158 north to US 52, Forsyth County,
Federal Aid Project No. NHF-0918(14) and not applicable, State Project No. 8.2625101
and 6.628001T, TIP U-2579/U-2579A and R-2247.
DENR Project Number 07-0269
This office has reviewed the referenced document dated January 2007. The Division of Water Quality
(DWQ) is responsible for the issuance of the Section 401 Water Quality Certification for activities that
impact Waters of the U.S., including wetlands. It is our understanding that the project as presented will
result in impacts to jurisdictional wetlands, streams, and other surface waters. The DWQ offers the
following comments based on review of the aforementioned document:
Project Specific Comments:
The remainder of these projects is being planned as part of the 404/NEPA Merger Process. As a
participating team member, the NCDWQ will continue to work with the team.
2. As previous communications have indicated, DOT is reminded that a quantitative Indirect and
Cumulative Impacts analysis is required for approval of the 401 Water Quality Certification.
3. Some streams within this project study area are identified as 303(d) waters of the State for impaired
use for aquatic life due to urban runoff and agriculture. DWQ is very concerned with sediment and
erosion impacts that could result from this project. DWQ recommends that the most protective
sediment and erosion control BMPs be implemented to reduce the risk of nutrient runoff to these
streams. DWQ requests that road design plans provide treatment of the storm water runoff through
best management practices as detailed in the most recent version of NC DWQ Stormwater Best
Management Practices.
One
N Carolina
Transportation Permitting Unit Naturally
1650 Mail Service Center, Raleigh, North Carolina 27699-1650
2321 Crabtree Boulevard, Suite 250, Raleigh, North Carolina 27604
Phone: [phone] / FAX [phone] / Internet: http://h2o.enr.state.nc.us/ncwetlands
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General Comments:
4. The environmental permitting documents should provide a detailed and itemized presentation of the
proposed impacts to wetlands and streams with corresponding mapping. If mitigation is necessary
as required by 15A NCAC 21-1.0506(h), it is preferable to present a conceptual (if not finalized)
mitigation plan with the environmental documentation. Appropriate mitigation plans will be
required prior to issuance of a 401 Water Quality Certification.
After the selection of the preferred alternative and prior to an issuance of the 401 Water Quality
Certification, the NCDOT is respectfully reminded that they will need to demonstrate the avoidance
and minimization of impacts to wetlands (and streams) to the maximum extent practical. In
accordance with the Environmental Management Commission's Rules (15A NCAC 2H.0506(h)),
mitigation will be required for impacts of greater than 1 acre to wetlands. In the event that
mitigation is required, the mitigation plan should be designed to replace appropriate lost functions
and values. The NC Ecosystem Enhancement Program may be available for use as wetland
mitigation.
6. In accordance with the Environmental Management Commission's Rules 115A NCAC
2H.0506(h)l, mitigation will be required for impacts of greater than 150 linear feet to any single
perennial stream. In the event that mitigation is required, the mitigation plan should be designed to
replace appropriate lost functions and values. The NC Ecosystem Enhancement Program may be
available for use as stream mitigation.
Future documentation, including the 401 Water Quality Certification Application, should continue
to include an itemized listing of the proposed wetland and stream impacts with corresponding
mapping.
8. A quantitative analysis of cumulative and secondary impacts anticipated as a result of this project is
required.
9. NC DOT is respectfully reminded that all impacts, including but not limited to, bridging, fill,
excavation and clearing, to jurisdictional wetlands, streams, and riparian buffers need to be included
in the final impact calculations. These impacts, in addition to any construction impacts, temporary
or otherwise, also need to be included as part of the 401 Water Quality Certification Application.
10. Sediment and erosion control measures should not be placed in wetlands or streams.
11. Borrow/waste areas should avoid wetlands to the maximum extent practical. Impacts to wetlands in
borrow/waste areas will need to be presented in the 401 Water Quality Certification and could
precipitate compensatory mitigation.
12. The 401 Water Quality Certification application will need to specifically address the proposed
methods for stormwater management. More specifically, stormwater should not be permitted to
discharge directly into streams or surface waters.
13. Based on the information presented in the document, the magnitude of impacts to wetlands and
streams may require an Individual Permit JP) application to the Corps of Engineers and
corresponding 401 Water Quality Certification. Please be advised that a 401 Water Quality
Certification requires satisfactory protection of water quality to ensure that water quality standards
are met and no wetland or stream uses are lost. Final permit authorization will require the submittal
of a formal application by the NCDOT and written concurrence from the NCDWQ. Please be
aware that any approval will be contingent on appropriate avoidance and minimization of wetland
and stream impacts to the maximum extent practical, the development of an acceptable stormwater
management plan, and the inclusion of appropriate mitigation plans where appropriate.
14. Bridge supports (bents) should not be placed in the stream when possible.
15. Whenever possible, the DWQ prefers spanning structures. Spanning structures usually do not
require work within the stream or grubbing of the streambanks and do not require stream channel
realignment. The horizontal and vertical clearances provided by bridges allow for human and
wildlife passage beneath the structure, do not block fish passage and do not block navigation by
canoeists and boaters.
16. Bridge deck drains should not discharge directly into the stream. Stormwater should be directed
across the bridge and pre-treated through site-appropriate means (grassed swales, pre-formed scour
holes, vegetated buffers, etc.) before entering the stream. Please refer to the most current version of
NC DWQ Stormwater Best Management Practices.
17. If concrete is used during construction, a dry work area should be maintained to prevent direct
contact between curing concrete and stream water. Water that inadvertently contacts uncured
concrete should not be discharged to surface waters due to the potential for elevated pH and
possible aquatic life and fish kills.
18. If temporary access roads or detours are constructed, the site shall be graded to its preconstruction
contours and elevations. Disturbed areas should be seeded or mulched to stabilize the soil and
appropriate native woody species should be planted. When using temporary structures the area
should be cleared but not grubbed. Clearing the area with chain saws, mowers, bush-hogs, or other
mechanized equipment and leaving the stumps and root mat intact allows the area to re-vegetate
naturally and minimizes soil disturbance.
19. Placement of culverts and other structures in waters, streams, and wetlands shall be placed below
the elevation of the streambed by one foot for all culverts with a diameter greater than 48 inches,
and 20 percent of the culvert diameter for culverts having a diameter less than 48 inches, to allow
low flow passage of water and aquatic life. Design and placement of culverts and other structures
including temporary erosion control measures shall not be conducted in a manner that may result in
dis-equilibrium of wetlands or streambeds or banks, adjacent to or upstream and down stream of the
above structures. The applicant is required to provide evidence that the equilibrium is being
maintained if requested in writing by DWQ. If this condition is unable to be met due to bedrock or
other limiting features encountered during construction, please contact the NC DWQ for guidance
on how to proceed and to determine whether or not a permit modification will be required.
20. If multiple pipes or barrels are required, they should be designed to mimic natural stream cross
section as closely as possible including pipes or barrels at flood plain elevation and/or sills where
appropriate. Widening the stream channel should be avoided. Stream channel widening at the inlet
or outlet end of structures typically decreases water velocity causing sediment deposition that
requires increased maintenance and disrupts aquatic life passage.
i
21. If foundation test borings are necessary; it should be noted in the document. Geotechnical work is
approved under General 401 Certification Number 3494/Nationwide Permit No. 6 for Survey
Activities.
22. Sediment and erosion control measures sufficient to protect water resources must be implemented
and maintained in accordance with the most recent version of North Carolina Sediment and Erosion
Control Planning and Design Manual and the most recent version of NCS000250. .
23. All work in or adjacent to stream waters should be conducted in a dry work area. Approved BMP
measures from the most current version of NCDOT Construction and Maintenance Activities
manual such as sandbags, rock berms, cofferdams and other diversion structures should be used to
prevent excavation in flowing water.
24. Heavy equipment should be operated from the bank rather than in stream channels in order to
minimize sedimentation and reduce the likelihood of introducing other pollutants into streams. This
equipment should be inspected daily and maintained to prevent contamination of surface waters
from leaking fuels, lubricants, hydraulic fluids, or other toxic materials.
25. Riprap should not be placed in the active thalweg channel or placed in the streambed in a manner
that precludes aquatic life passage. Bioengineering boulders or structures should be properly
designed, sized and installed.
26. Riparian vegetation (native trees and shrubs) should be preserved to the maximum extent possible.
Riparian vegetation must be reestablished within the construction limits of the project by the end of
the growing season following completion of construction.
The NCDWQ appreciates the opportunity to provide comments on your project. Should you have any
questions or require any additional information, please contact Sue Homewood at 336-771-4964.
cc: John Thomas, US Army Corps of Engineers, Raleigh Field Office
Felix Davila, Federal Highway Administration
Chris Militscher, Environmental Protection Agency
Marla Chambers, NC Wildlife Resources Commission
Marella Buncick, US Fish and Wildlife Service
DWQ Winston-Salem Regional Office
DWQ 401 Transportation Permitting Unit
NC Division of Water Quality
Planning Branch
Modeling and TMDL Unit
s92v ?G,9 ?,
s??1' PG n, O
MEMORANDUM
Michelle Woolfolk, Supervisor. 7
From: Narayan Rajbhandari, Modele %
Date: August 17, 2006
Subject: Comments on-Pollutant Loading, Estimates for Water Bodies Potentiall
Winston-Sal

The technical report on "Pollutant Loading Estimates for Water Bodies Potentially
Impacted by the Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Extension" aims to evaluate pollutant
load estimates for water bodies under the following two scenarios: Projected land cover
conditions for the year 2015 without the construction of the beltway extension (no build
scenario) and the 2015 projected land cover distribution with the constructed Northern
Beltway Extension (Build-out scenario). Two watershed loading models, Generalized
Watershed Loading Function (GWLF) and Annualized Agricultural Non-Point Source
(AnnAGNPS), were used to evaluate the pollutant loads under the two different
scenarios.
Followings are my comments on the report:
Model Selection:
The two models, GWLF and AnnAGNPS, are appropriate for this study. Both models
are capable of predicting the impact of land management practices on water and pollutant
loads with varying soils, land uses, and management conditions. The models'
performance and limitations are well documented in this report.
Model Calibration:
Significance of model calibration is evaluated by correlating the monthly total pollutant
loads estimated by the models with the loads estimated by the regression equation. This
is widely used calibration procedure for the watershed where data are limited. Hence, I
am comfortable with the calibration procedure.
Watershed Parameter Estimation:
Parameter values adjusted for the model calibration and projection are not clearly
explained in the report. Sensitivity of following watershed parameters under the two
scenarios should be incorporated in the report:
Flow adjustment factors: Curve number, Manning's roughness coefficient, and saturated
hydraulic conductivity.
Sediment adjustment factors: Crop management factor, crop residual factor, channel
erodible factor, and channel cover factor.
Nutrient adjustment factors: Initial nutrient condition in soils and ground water, in-stream
nutrient process, fertilizer application rate, nutrient percolation coefficient, and algal
biomass coefficient.
Others:
In table 4-12 (page), the estimation of annual average for simulated sediment load should
be 10,241 tones instead of 15,052 tones.
Overall, this report is written thoughtfully and well organized. The procedure used for
the regression analysis seems ideal for this study. However, I would like to reiterate my
comments for watershed parameter estimation. Thank you for giving me the opportunity
to read this valuable modeling report.
a,,.sUTEo? '
all
STATE OF NORTH CAROLINA
DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION
MICHAEL F. EASLEY LYNDO TIPPETT
GOVERNOR SECRETARY
May 3, 2006
MEMORANDUM TO: John Den-ley 4vV*94
Division of Water Quality /
FROM: Missy Dickens, PE. ; ; r r
Program Development Branch I
ON BEHALF OF: Project Development and Environmental Analysis Branch
SUBJECT: Review of ICI Downstream Water Quality Modeling for
Winston-Salem Northern Beltway (Western Section,
Eastern Section, and Eastern Section Extension, TIP
Projects R-2247, U-2579, and U-2579A, Respectively),
Forsyth County
Attached for your review is a copy of the Indirect and Cumulative Impact Analysis -
Downstream Water Quality Modeling Component for the Winston-Salem Northern
Beltway projects, prepared by Louis Berger.
Please review and provide your comments by June 9, 2006 if possible. If there are
questions, please contact me at 733-2031. '
Cc: Greg Thorpe, Environmental Management Director
Carl Goode, Human Environment Unit Head
Phil Harris, Natural Environment Unit Head JUN 27 2006
DWO PLANING SECTION
MODELING UNIT
MAILING ADDRESS:
NC DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION
PROJECT DEVELOPMENT AND ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
1548 MAIL SERVICE CENTER
RALEIGH NC 27899-1548
TELEPHONE: [phone]
FAX: [phone]
WEBSITE: WWW.DOH.DOT.STATE.NC.US
LOCATION:
TRANSPORTATION BUILDING
1 SOUTH WILMINGTON STREET
RALEIGH NC

Pollutant Loading Estimates for
Waterbodies Potentially
Impacted by the Winston-
Salem Northern Beltway
Extension
July, 2005
For Review Purposes ONLY
010FT
For Review Purposes ONLY

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prepared by: ®.
The Louis Berger Group, Inc.
Table of Contents
1.0 Introduction ..........................................................................1-1
1.1 County Description ............................................................................................1-1
1.2 Extent of Proposed Beltway Extension ............................................................1-3
1.3 Study Objectives .................................................................................................1-4
1.4 Summary of Technical Approach .....................................................................1-5
2.0 Model Descriptions .............................................................. 2-1
2.1 GWLF Model ..................................................................................................... 2-1
2. 1.1 GWLF Model Description ....................................................................... 2-1
2.1.2 GWLF Input Data Requirements ............................................................. 2-2
2.1.2.1 Weather Input File ................................................................................ ... 2-2
2.1.2.2 Transport Input File .............................................................................. ... 2-2
2.1.2.3 Nutrient Input File ................................................................................ ... 2-3
2.1.3 GWLF Capabilities and Limitations ..................................................... ... 2-4
2.2 AnnAGNPS Model .......................................................................................... ... 2-5
2.2.1 AnnAGNPS Model Description ........................................................... ... 2-5
2.2.1.1 Surface Runoff Simulation ....................................................................... 2-6
2.2.1.2 Soil Erosion ............................................................................................ .. 2-6
2.2.1.3 Sediment Transport ................................................................................ .. 2-8
2.2.1.4 Sediment Deposition .............................................................................. .. 2-9
2.2.1.5 SCS Runoff Curve Number Equation ..................................................... 2-11
2.2.2 AnnAGNPS Input Data Requirements .................................................. 2-12
2.2.2.1 Climate Data .......................................................................................... 2-12
2.2.3 AnnAGNPS Model Setup Utilities ........................................................ 2-13
2.2.3.1 Ann AGNPS Input Editor ........................................................................ 2-13
2.2.3.2 AnnAGNPSArcView Interface .............................................................. 2-13
2.2.3.3 Output Post-Processing ..................................:...................................... 2-15
2.3 GWLF and AnnAGNPS Model Comparisons .............................................. 2-15
2.3.1 Data Input Preparation ........................................................................... 2-16
Table of Contents
Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates
3.12.2 Existing Conditions Total Nitrogen Loads ............................................ 3-35
3.12.3 Existing Conditions Total Phosphorus Loads ........................................ 3-35
4.0 Model Application ................................................................ 4-1
4.1 GWLF Model ..................................................................................................... 4-1
4. 1.1 GWLF Input File Generation ................................................................... 4-1
4.1.2 GWLF Hydrology Calibration ................................................................. 4-3
4.1.3 GWLF Water Quality Calibration ........................................................ ... 4-6
4.1.3.1 Sediment Calibration ............................................................................ ... 4-6
4.1.3.2 Total Nitrogen Calibration ................................................................... ... 4-8
4.1.3.3 Total Phosphorus Calibration .............................................................. . 4-10
4.2 GWLF Model Pollutant Loading Estimates ................................................. . 4-12
4.2.1 GWLF Existing Conditions Scenario ................................................... . 4-12
4.2.2 GWLF Projections for the No-Build Scenario ...................................... . 4-13
4.2.3 GWLF Projected Build-Out Scenario ................................................... . 4-14
4.2.4 GWLF Northern Beltway Pollutant LoadinSumm 4-15
4.3 AnnAGNPS Model ........................................................................................... 4-16
4.3.1 Calibration Strategy ............................................................................... 4-16
4.3.1.1 Comparison of Simulated and Observed Runoff at the South Fork Muddy
Creek USGS Station ........................................................................................... 4-17
4.3.1.2 Assurance that Edge-of-Stream (EOS) Loads were within Published
Literature Values ............................................................................................... 4-17
4.3.1.3 Calibration of the Transported Pollutant Loads at the South Fork Muddy
Creek USGS Station ........................................................................................... 4-18
4.3.1.4 Application of the South Fork Subbasin Parameterization to the Entire
Study Area .......................................................................................................... 4-18
4.3.2 Input File Generation ............................................................................. 4-18
4.3.3 Nutrient Applications in AnnAGNPS .................................................... 4-19
4.3.4 AnnAGNPS Hydrology Calibration ...................................................... 4-20
4.3.5 Ann.AGNPS Sediment Calibration ........................................................ 4-22
4.3.6 AmAGNPS Total Nitrogen Calibration .............................. ... 4-24

Table of Contents Iii
List of Figures
Figure 3-1: Waters of Concern in Proposed Winston-Salem Beltway Extension Study
Area ................................................................................................................................ .. 3-5
Figure 3-2: Delineated Study Area for Pollutant Loading Estimates ............................ .. 3-6
Figure 3-3: Weather Stations Used in Pollutant Load Estimation ................................. .. 3-7
Figure 3-4: Soils Distribution in Study Area ................................................................. .. 3-9
Figure 3-5: Location of Stream Geometry Data Collection Transects .......................... 3-11
Figure 3-6: Existing Conditions Land Cover Distribution ............................................ 3-13
Figure 3-7: AnnAGNPS Model Existing Conditions Land Cover ................................ 3-17
Figure 3-8: AnnAGNPS Model 2015 Project Land Cover: No-Build Scenario............ 3-18
j Figure 3-9: AnnAGNPS Model 2015 Project Land Cover: Build-Out Scenario........... 3-19
Figure 3-10: Location of Permitted Facilities in Study Area ......................................... 3-21

...............................................
Figure 3-11: Subbasins within the Study Area ............... 3-25
d
Figure 3-12: Distribution of Septic Systems in the Study Area .....................................
3-26
Figure 3-13: Location of USGS Flow Gages within Study Area .................................. 3-30
` Figure 3-14: Flow versus Sediment Regression for the Study Area .............................. 3-35
Figure 3-15: Flow versus Total Nitrogen Regression for the Study Area ..................... 3-36
Figure 3-16: Flow versus Total Phosphorus Regression for the Study Area ................. 3-36
Figure 4-1: Location of USGS Flow Gages within Study Area .................................... .. 4-4
Figure 4-2: Hydrology Calibration Results for South Fork Muddy Creek .................... .. 4-5
Figure 4-3: Hydrology Calibration Results for Mainstem Muddy Creek ..................... .. 4-6
Figure 4-4: Sediment Calibration Results for South Fork Muddy Creek ...................... .. 4-7

Figure 4-5: Sediment Calibration Results for Mainstem Muddy Creek ........................ .. 4-8
Figure 4-6: Total Nitrogen Calibration Results for South Fork Muddy Creek .............. .. 4-9
Figure 4-7: Total Nitrogen Calibration Results for Mainstem Muddy Creek ............... .. 4-9
{ Figure 4-8: Total Phosphorus Calibration Results for South Fork Muddy Creek......... 4-11
Figure 4-9: Total Phosphorus Calibration Results for Mainstem Muddy Creek........... 4-11
Figure 4-10: Summary of Results for GWLF Modeling Scenarios ............................... 4-16
Figure 4-11: AnnAGNPS Hydrology Calibration Results for South Fork Muddy Creek4-21
Figure 4-12: AnnAGNPS Sediment Calibration Results for South Fork Muddy Creek4-23
i
Figure 4-13: AnnAGNPS Nitrogen Calibration Results for South Fork Muddy Creek
4-24
Table of Contents v
Table 4-9: Travel Times in the Study Watershed Subbasins .........................................4-17
Table 4-10: Annual Simulated and Observed Flows in South Fork Muddy Creek....... 4-21
Table 4-11: Simulated Erosion Rates by Land Cover Type in the South Fork Muddy
Creek Watershed ..................................................................................................... 4-22
Table 4-12: Annual Simulated and Observed Sediment Loads in South Fork Muddy
Creek ....................................................................................................................... 4-23
Table 4-13: Simulated Nitrogen Loading Rates by Land Cover Type in the South Fork
Muddy Creek Watershed ........................................................................................ 4-24
Table 4-14: Simulated Phosphorus Loading Rates by Land Cover Type in the South Fork
Muddy Creek Watershed ........................................................................................4-25
Table 4-15: Average Annual Pollutant Loads from Land Sources under Projected
Existing Conditions ................................................................................................ 4-26
Table 4-16: AnnAGNPS and GWLF Annual Sediment and Nutrient Loading Unit-Rates
................................................:.%............................................................................. 4-27
Table 4-17: Average Annual Pollutant Loads from Land Sources under the No-Build
Scenario .................................................................................................................. 4-30
Table 4-18: Average Annual Pollutant Loads from Land Sources under the Build-Out
Scenario ................................................................................................................
4-34
......................
Table 4-19: Summary Comparison of GWLF and AnnAGNPS Models
Table 5-1: Projected Land-Use Distributions under the Three Modeling Scenarios ....... 5-2
Table 5-2: Summary of Results No-Build and Build-Out Scenarios ............................... 5-2
Table of Contents VII
Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates
1.0 Introduction
The proposed Winston-Salem Northern Beltway is located within Forsyth County, North
Carolina and it comprises two projects - the Western Section project and the Eastern
Section project, which includes the Eastern Section Extension. The Western Section (TIP
No. R-2247) is the subject of a Final Environmental Impact Statement (FEIS) issued in
1996 (North Carolina Department of Transportation, 1996). The Eastern Section (TIP
No. U-2579) is the subject of a Draft Environmental Impact Statement (DEIS) issued in
1995 (North Carolina Department of Transportation, 1995). Further details about the
projects are found in their respective environmental impact statements. The Eastern
Section Extension (TIP No. U-2579A) has yet to have a Draft Environmental Impact
Statement published, but it is being addressed, along with the TIP Nos. U-2579 and R-
2247, in a new Draft Supplemental Environmental Impact Statement.
North Carolina state law requires the development of quantitative pollutant loading
estimates in instances where construction projects are proposed in watersheds which have
been included on the North Carolina Section 303(d) List as being impaired for their
designated uses. The area encompassed by the proposed beltway includes several
streams currently listed on the North Carolina Section 303(d) List. Therefore, the North
Carolina Department of Transportation (NCDOT) is required to conduct a study that
identifies the potentially impacted waterbodies and addresses the impacts of the proposed
construction on these impaired waters. This report presents the pollutant loading
estimates developed for the waterbodies identified as being potentially impacted by the
construction of the Northern Beltway extension.
1.1 County Description
The proposed Northern Beltway extension would be located in For County, North
Carolina, and would surround the City of Winston-Salem to provide a continuous
northern, limited-access freeway loop around the city. Forsyth County is located in the
Piedmont region in central North Carolina. The Cities of Winston-Salem, Greensboro,
and High Point and their surrounding areas are commonly referred to as the Piedmont
Triad region of the state. In addition to Winston-Salem, the largest city in the county,
Introduction 1-1
Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates
Forsyth County is comprised of seven smaller municipalities, including Bethania,
Clemmons, Kemersville, Lewisville, Rural Hall, Tobaccoville and Walkertown.
Population in the county was reported to be approximately 306,000 people in the 2000
U.S. Census, and is projected to grow to approximately 365,000 people by the year 2015.
Existing land cover types in western Forsyth County consist primarily of single-family
residential and rural land cover types with a limited scattering of commercial and
industrial uses. Residential uses generally consist of single-family residences in suburban
and rural settings. In eastern Forsyth County, the existing land cover conditions are
comprised of a mix of forested, rural, agricultural, and residential land cover types
interspersed with scattered commercial and industrial development along the major traffic
arteries. Particularly accelerated growth is occurring in eastern Forsyth County in the
area north of US 421/I-40 Business and west of Kernersville.
Residential development in Forsyth County is most highly concentrated in the eastern
section of the county. In particular, residential development is concentrated along the
following thoroughfares: US 421/I-40 Business, West Mountain Street, Walkertown- i.;
Guthrie Road, US158, Northampton Drive, Old Walkertown Road, NC 66, Baux
Mountain Road, Old Rural Hall Road, Germanton Road, Stanleyville Drive, and
University Parkway.
The greatest area of commercial and industrial development occurs in the US 421/I-40
Business and West Mountain Street areas in the eastern section of the county.
Commercial and industrial land cover types in western Forsyth County include a broad
range of structures and uses. Commercial uses are most prominent at the intersection of
major roadways, while industrial uses are concentrated along the highways.
Agricultural land cover types in the county include land used to grow small grain crops,
primarily com and soybeans. In addition, several agri-business farms, horse-riding
stables, and plant nurseries are in the area. There are about 850 farms (average size is 65
acres) in Forsyth County, of which approximately one-third are located in the western
portion of the county.
Introduction 1-2
Winston-Salern Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates
1.2 Extent of Proposed Beltway Extension
The existing transportation system in Winston-Salem and Forsyth County consists of one
interstate highway, four US highways, and six NC highways. I-40 is North Carolina's
major east-west link, connecting Asheville, Winston-Salem, Greensboro, Burlington,
Chapel Hill, Durham, Raleigh, and Wilmington. I-40 links Winston-Salem to Greensboro
and I-85 to the east and to Asheville and I-77 to the west. The I-40 bypass provides a
southern east-west bypass of the Winston-Salem and Kernersville urban areas, whereas
US 421/I-40 Business provides an east-west principal arterial through the Winston-Salem
central business district (CBD). The four US routes are US 421, US 311, US 158, and US
52. US 52 is the primary north-south route through Winston-Salem; US 52 connects to I-
77 to the north and I-85 to the south. The combination of I-40 and the US routes provide
an intercity routing system for the Piedmont Triad formed by the cities of Winston-
Salem, Greensboro, and High Point. "
As specified above, the proposed Winston-Salem Northern Beltway extension is
comprised of two projects; the Western Section project and the Eastern Section project.
The Western Section project would consist of a varying four- to six-lane highway that
would extend approximately 17 miles from a southern terminus along Stratford Road (US
158) to a northern terminus along US 52, just north of an intersection with University
Parkway. The Western Section would include ten interchange locations, as follows:
South Stratford Road (US 158), I-40, US 421, Shallowford Road, Robinhood Road,
Yadkinville Road, Reynolda Road (NC 67), Bethania-Tobaccoville Road, and US 52. In
addition to the City of Winston-Salem, the communities incorporated by the Western
Section project would include the towns of Lewisville, Tobaccoville, and Rural Hall, and
the Village of Clemmons.
The Eastern Section project would extend approximately 17 miles from US 52 north of
Winston-Salem to US 311 southeast of Winston-Salem. This section of the Beltway
would provide for improved safety and traffic operation for traffic currently routed along
congested existing routes. The Eastern Section would lie generally east and north of
Winston-Salem, south of the town of Rural Hall, and west of the town of Kernersville.
Portions of this section would traverse the corporate limits of Winston-Salem and
Introduction 1-3
Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates
Walkertown. The western terminus of the Eastern Section would be located at US 52, the
proposed northern terminus of the Western Section of the beltway. The Eastern Section
of the beltway would terminate at a proposed interchange with US 311, located southeast
of Winston-Salem. The Eastern Section would have interchanges at the following
roadways: University Parkway (NC 66), Germanton Road (NC 8), Baux Mountain Road,
New Walkertown Road (US 311), Reidsville Road (US 158), US 421/I-40 Business (NC
150), Kernersville Road, I-40 Bypass, and US 311.
1.3 Study Objectives
The objectives of the current study were to develop accurate and technically-credible
pollutant load estimates for waterbodies potentially impacted by the Winston-Salem
Northern Beltway extension. The first step in accomplishing this task was to reproduce
the existing sediment, nitrogen, and phosphorus loading conditions in the study area; i.e.,
to simulate the actual response of the watershed under existing conditions. After
simulating the existing loading conditions, pollutant loads under future scenarios were
estimated using projected land cover conditions for the year 2015 without the
construction of the beltway extension (no-build scenario), and the 2015 projected land
cover distribution with the constructed Northern Beltway Extension (build-out scenario).
A key component used to develop land cover projections, and ultimately develop
pollutant loads under the future conditions, was the Indirect and Cumulative Impact (ICI)
Assessment study conducted on behalf of NC DOT. This study was conducted to address
potential direct and indirect cumulative impacts resulting from the construction of the
Northern Beltway Extension. The ICI study uses the Piedmont Triad regional travel
model to assign impacts to specific areas (traffic analysis zones) and to evaluate changes
in land cover and development resulting from the beltway construction, as well as future
growth changes in the absence of the Northern Beltway Extension.
Under the projected land cover scenarios, changes in pollutant loads under future land
cover conditions were estimated and the potential impacts to Section 303(d) listed ,
streams within the study area were quantified. The two modeling approaches used to 1AA J
achieve these objectives were the Annualized Agricultural Non-Point Source
Introduction 1-4
?
(AnnAGNPS) model and the Generalized Watershed Loading Function (GWLF) model.
Additional detail and descriptions of these modeling approaches are presented in later
sections of this report. An additional goal of this study was to compare these two
approaches with respect to their capabilities and the ease with which they can be setup
and run, in order to provide NCDOT with information that may be used to direct the
choice of modeling approaches in future pollutant simulation studies.
1.4 Summary of Technical Approach
The technical approach described in this study presents the methodology used to develop
pollutant loading estimates for waterbodies potentially impacted by the proposed
Winston-Salem Northern Beltway extension, and the results of those analyses. Section
2.0 presents the two models (AnnAGNPS and GWLF) used to develop the pollutant
loading estimates, and also describes the data needs for both models and their capabilities
and limitations. Section 3.0 describes the physical and environmental monitoring data
used to develop the input files required for the AnnAGNPS and GWLF models. Section
4.0 presents the hydrologic and water quality calibrations for both models, as well as the
pollutant loading estimates generated for the existing conditions scenarios and the
projected land cover scenarios. Section 5.0 discusses and analyzes the results generated
from both the Ann.AGNPS and GWLF models.

1
Introduction -s
Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates
2.0 Model Descriptions
This section presents and describes the two models used to estimate pollutant loads
resulting from the Winston-Salem Northern Beltway extension. The two models utilized
in this project include the Annualized Agricultural Non-Point Source (AnnAGNPS)
model, and the Generalized Watershed Loading Function (GWLF) model. Below, the
AnnAGNPS and GWLF models are described and the input requirements for each model
are documented. Additionally, the capabilities and limitations of each model are
presented and analyzed, with particular consideration given to their data requirements and
the setup and processing time of each model.
2.1 GWLF Model
2.1.1 GWLF Model Description
GWLF is a time variable simulation model that simulates hydrology and sediment
loadings on a watershed basis. Observed daily precipitation data is required in GWLF as
the basis for water budget calculations. Surface runoff, evapotranspiration and
groundwater flows are calculated based on user specified parameters. Stream flow is
calculated as the sum of surface runoff and groundwater discharge. Surface runoff is
computed using the Soil Conservation Service Curve Number Equation. Curve numbers
are a function of soils and land use type. Evapotranspiration is computed based on the
method described by Hamon (1961) and is dependent upon temperature, daylight hours,
saturated water vapor pressure, and a cover coefficient. Groundwater contributions to the
stream are described in the model using a lumped parameter water balance. Infiltration to
the unsaturated zone occurs when precipitation exceeds surface runoff and
evapotranspiration. Percolation to the shallow saturated zone occurs when the
unsaturated zone capacity is exceeded. The shallow saturated zone is modeled as a linear
reservoir to calculate groundwater discharge. In addition, the model allows for seepage
to a deep saturated zone.
Nutrient loading is a function of concentrations of dissolved nutrients in the groundwater
and runoff from land sources areas, as well as particulate nutrients associated with
sediments, and nutrients originating from septic systems. Nutrient loadings from surface
Model Descriptions 2-1
Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates
runoff are determined based on land use and soils distributions, as well as groundwater
and soil nutrient levels. Particulate nutrients associated with sediment are calculated by
applying a nutrient loading coefficient to the computed sediment loads.
Sediment, nitrogen, and phosphorus loadings are a function of the land source areas
present in the watershed. Multiple source areas may be defined based on land use type,
the underlying soils type, and the management practices applied to the land. The
Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) is used to compute erosion for each source area
and a sediment delivery ratio is applied to determine the sediment loadings to the stream.
Surface nutrient losses are determined by applying dissolved nitrogen and phosphorus
coefficients to surface runoff and a sediment coefficient to the yield portion for each
agricultural source area. Pollutant loadings from each source area are added to obtain a
watershed total.
2.1.2 GWLF Input Data Requirements
The GWLF model requires three input files, including a weather input file (Weather.dat)
a transport input file (Transport.dat), and a nutrient input file (Nutrient.dat). The inputs
files are structured as comma-delimited text files.
2.1.2.1 Weather Input File
The weather input file requires daily precipitation data expressed in centimeters, and
daily temperature data expressed in degrees Celsius. The weather input file requires a
minimum of 12 months of data, and the data must begin in April and end in March of the
following year.
2.1.2.2 Transport Input He
The transport input file requires specification of input parameters relating to hydrology,
erosion, and sediment yield. The Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) factors for soil
erodibility (K), length-slope (LS), cover and management (C), and supporting practice
(P) are required to estimate erosion loss and sediment yield. The soil erodibility (K)
factor is a measure of inherent soil erosion potential, and is primarily a function of soil
texture and composition. The slope-length (LS) factor is a function of overland runoff
and slope. The cropping management (C) factor is used to represent the effect of ground
Model Descriptions 2-2
Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant •
data to generate the daily phosphorus loading conditions. The resulting existing-condition
phosphorus loads are presented in Appendix G.
Figure 3-15: Flow versus Total Nitrogen Regression for the Study Area
y = 4.4603x Observed Data
R2 = 0.79 Total Nitrogen vs. Flow Regression
10000
1000
100
Z ?
10
H
1
1 10 100 1000 10000
Flow (cfs)
Figure 3-16: Flow versus Total Phosphorus Regression for the Study Area

Appendix C 3-36
•

Figure 3-14: Flow versus Sediment Regression for the Study Area
y = 0.0038X18881 Observed Data
R2 = 0.90 Flow vs. Sediment Regression
100000
010
10000
v •
c ?
1000
V
;010 000 00,
M
O
J
.. 100 ?
C
d ?
? ?j
10
N
$04 4.4
1
10 100 1000 10000
Flow (cfs)
3.12.2 Existing Conditions Total Nitrogen Loads
Similarly to the development of the sediment loads, a regression equation was developed
n based on the observed relationship between stream hydrology and total nitrogen loading;
as indicated in Figure 3-15, an R2 value of 0.79 shows that an acceptable correlation
j exists between nitrogen loads and stream flow. The nitrogen regression equation
(Nitrogen, loads = f(Flow)) was applied to the daily stream flow to generate the daily
nitrogen loading conditions. The resulting existing-condition nitrogen loads are presented
in Appendix G.
3.12.3 Existing Conditions Total Phosphorus Loads
Similar to the development of the sediment loads, a regression equation was developed
based on the observed relationship between stream hydrology and total phosphorus
loading; as indicated in Figure 3-16, an R2 value of 0.79 shows that an acceptable
correlation exists between phosphorus loads and stream flow. The phosphorus regression
equation (Phosphorus loads = f(Flow)) was applied to the daily observed stream flow
3
Appendix C -35
Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates
might be limited, they represented the best information available to develop existing-
conditions loads. The second step was to use the regression equations developed for
sediment, phosphorus, and nitrogen (Loads = f(Flow)) and apply them to the daily
observed flow at the USGS flow stations to create observed pollutant loads. The derived
pollutant loads span the calibration period from 1988 to 1991 and were compared to the
simulated pollutant loads generated by GWLF and AnnAGNPS to evaluate the ability of
the models to predict observed sediment loadings. In other words, the existing-conditions
loads were used to calibrate the models and assess their ability to reproduce the existing-
conditions loading response in the study area.
3.12.1 Estimation of the Existing Conditions Sediment Loads
In order to develop daily sediment loading estimates using the available data, observed
sediment data collected at USGS stations 02115860 and 021159 were combined and
plotted against the corresponding flow data collected for each corresponding date (Figure
3-14). A regression equation (observed flow vs. observed sediment loads) was
developed, and as indicated by the R2 value of 0.90, a strong correlation exists between
these two variables. The sediment regression equation (Loads = f(Flow)) was applied to
the daily observed stream flow values to generate the daily sediment loading conditions.
These resulting loads are presented in Appendix G.
Appendix C 3-34
• •• I In 11-1111 •.•
•

Table 3-11: USGS Stadons with Observed Flow and Pollutant Loads Data
Period for Daily Number of Water
Period for Water Quality
USGS Station Name USGS
ID
St
ti Flow
Observations Quality Observations'
on
a Observations
TSS
TN
TP
Silas Creek Near 02115800 1964-1970 1988-1989 9 9 9
Clemson
Muddy Creek NC 65 at 0211569650 none 1988-1989 9 9 9
Bethania
Peters Creek at West 02115846 none 1988-1989 8 8 6
Salem
Salem Creek at SR2657 0211583290 none 1988-1989 9 9 9
at Guthrie
Salem Creek near 02115856 1971-1982 1978-1979 26 3 3
Atwood
Salem Creek near Muddy 02115858 none 1988-1989 8 8 8
Creek
Muddy Creek near 0211586
4 1964-1979
91 1988-1989 37 9 9
Muddy Creek ?---?- -
' 1988-19
South fork Muddy Creek 0211590
? 1964-1979
1991 1988-1989 5 J8 : 8
near Clemmons --?- 1988-
TSS= Total Suspenaea boaas, 11V= 1 VUU 114MUKrall al"- •vwi ¦ uvoy+avwwv
Because these data were collected at the same locations as the USGS stream flow data
used in the hydrology calibration of the AnnAGNPS and GWLF models, the available
USGS water quality were the., data used to calibrate the water quality components of the
AnnAGNPS and GWLF models.
3.12 Derivation of Existing-Conditions Pollutant Loads
Regressions
in order to assess the ability of the. AnnAGNPS and GWLF models to reproduce the
existing-conditions pollutant exports in the study area, it was necessary to develop
existing-conditions pollutant loads at each one of the USGS stations of interest. The
existing-conditions pollutant loads were developed using the available flow and water
quality data discussed in Section 3.11.3 and summarized in Table 3-11. These data
consists only of the observations collected at USGS stations 02115856, 02115860 and
02115900 (where stream flow and pollutant loads data are simultaneously available).
The first step was to combine and use these data in the development of correlation
equations (i.e., flow vs. load regressions). In other words, it was assumed that the
>. observed data represent the water quality response of the watershed. While these data
Appendix C
3-33
Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates
..,? cover conditions, soil conditions, and general management practices on soil erosion. The
erosion control practice (P) factor is used to depict the effectiveness of various structural
and non-structural practices such as terracing and residue management in reducing soil
erosion on cultivated land. USLE erosion factors are specified as an average value for a
given source area (i.e., land cover type). A sediment delivery ratio is used in GWLF
based on the premise that a certain percentage of the material eroded from the land
surface is deposited prior to its reaching nearby surface water. The sediment delivery
ratio is applied based on the relationship between sediment delivery and watershed size.
Runoff curve numbers specified in the NRCS Technical Release 55 (MRCS, 1986) are
also required as input parameters of the transport file. Runoff curve numbers are
empirically derived values used in watershed hydrology simulation studies that reflect the
relative amounts of surface runoff and infiltration occurring at a given location, and are
specified as an average value for a given source area (i.e., land cover type).
Evapotranspiration cover coefficients required by GWLF are used to relate the relative
amount of evapotranspiration occurring within the modeled watershed, and are expressed
y? for each model source area based upon existing vegetative cover. Typical values range
from 1.0 for wooded areas during the growing season to 0.3 for annual crops during the
dormant season. A simple vegetation growth algorithm is used to estimate
evapotranspiration based on daylight hours and growing season.
The GWLF model also requires the initialization of groundwater hydrology parameters
such as rainfall erosivity coefficients, antecedent moisture conditions, initial saturated
and unsaturated groundwater storage, unsaturated available water capacity, and recession
and groundwater seepage coefficients.
2.1.2.3 Nutrient Input File
The nutrient input file requires specification of both dissolved and solid-phase sources of
nutrients. Dissolved nutrients are associated with runoff, point sources, and groundwater
contributions to stream flow. Solid-phase nutrients originate from point sources, soil
erosion, and urban washoff. Within the GWLF model, dissolved nitrogen, and
phosphorus loads are obtained by multiplying runoff volumes by average dissolved
nutrient concentrations. Solid-phase nutrients associated with sediment are quantified
Model Descriptions 2-3
Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates
using established literature values for soil nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations. This
is particularly important for phosphorus, which is highly associated with sediment and is
principally conveyed to surface waters via soil erosion. Nutrient build-up and washoff
functions are used in GWLF to estimate solid-phase nutrient loads from urban areas.
Groundwater nitrogen and phosphorus loads are calculated by specifying background
nitrogen and phosphorus groundwater concentrations. For modeling purposes, an area-
weighted value is calculated in a given watershed and subsequently scaled by a constant
to better reflect subsurface concentrations. GWLF is also capable of simulating nutrient
loading from point sources and septic systems; for these point sources, nitrogen, and
phosphorus loads are specified for each source in the nutrient input file.
2.1.3 GWLF Capabilities and Limitations
The GWLF model was developed and intended to be used to perform planning-level
analyses. GWLF is capable of simulating flow, sediment, nitrogen, and phosphorus loads
from different source areas within a watershed. However. no routing or other spatial
loading distribution fractions are_preseint _in the GWLF model; GWLF is a lumped
parameter model that estimates pollutant loading rates for each designated source area
(i.e., land cover type) specified in the input files. GWLF simulates flow and pollutant
loading_ s on a daily basis. The GWLF model is also capable of simulating all processes of
the hydrological cycle; however, it should be noted that there is no stream flow or
_groundwater routing in ;GWL-F and, groundwater is represented as a "bathtub" in the
model. GWLF was developed as. a planning tool for estimating nutrient and sediment
loadings on a. watershed . basis, and designers of the model intended for it to be
implemented without calibration.
A key advantage to the GWLF model is its comparatively low input requirements and
short setup time. Input to the GWLF model consists of three input files, and most of the
required data are readily available. Weather data are available from the National
Climatic Data Center (NCDC), and land cover and soils parameters required for the
transport input file are available from regional or national datasets. Nutrient data are less
readily available, but the GWLF user's manual (Haith et al., 1992) provides default
model values in instances where more site specific data has not been collected. The setup

Model Descriptions 2-4
Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates
.:. time to develop the input files and run the GWLF model ranges from a few days to
approximately one week, depending upon the availability of the required data and the
amount of site specific data available for the area. Although flow and water quality
calibration was performed for the GWLF model in this study, the fact that GWLF was
intended to be used without calibration allows users to quickly generate pollutant load
estimates without going through the calibration process.
2.2 AnnAGNPS Model
2.2.1 AnnAGNPS Model Description
The Agricultural Non-Point Source (AGNPS) model was developed in the early 1980's
by the Agricultural Research Service (ARS) in cooperation with the Minnesota Pollution
Control Agency, and the Natural Resource Conservation Service (MRCS). The model
was developed to analyze and provide estimates of runoff water quality resulting from
single storm events from agricultural watersheds ranging in size from a few hectares to
20,000 hectares. In the early 1990's, a team of ARS and NRCS scientists was formed to
develop a continuous-simulation version of the model, AnnAGNPS (Annualized
Agricultural Non-point Source model), also referred to as AGNPS 2001.
AnnAGNPS is a distributed-parameter model where the watershed is subdivided into
homogenous land parcels (cells) with respect to soil type, land use, and land
management. AnnAGNPS simulates surface water, sediment, nutrients, and jesticides-
leavin the cells and._th. transport through the watershed. The main purpose of the
model is to._examme. current conditions or to compare the effects of implementing various -
conservation alternatives over time within the watershed. Alternative cropping and tillage
systems, fertilizer, pesticide, and irrigation application rates, point source loads and
feedlot management can all be evaluated using the AnnAGNPS model.
AnnAGNPS requires 34 different categories/blocks of input data. These can be further
grouped into the following major classifications: climate, land characterization, field
operations, chemical characteristics, and feedlot operations. The climatic classification
consists of precipitation, maximum and minimum air temperature, relative humidity, sky
cover, and wind speed data. Land characterization data includes soil characterization,
Model Descriptions 2-5
Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates
curve number, RUSLE parameters, and watershed drainage characterization. The field
operation classification includes data regarding tillage, planting, harvest, rotation,
chemical operations, and irrigation schedules. The feedlot operations classification
includes daily manure production rates, time of manure removal, and the residual amount
from previous operations. There are over 400 separate input parameters necessary for
model execution. Some of these parameters are repeated for each cell, soil type, land use,
feedlot, and/or channel reach.
2.2.1.1 Surface Runoff Simulation
Runoff is calculated using the SCS Runoff Curve Number equation. The SCS curve
number technique is used within AnnAGNPS to determine the surface runoff from a
field, which is then scaled up to determine surface runoff for the entire watershed. A soil
moisture water budget is performed 6n a daily basis and includes source water (rainfall,
irrigation, and snow-melt), runoff, evapotranspiration, and percolation. Curve numbers
are modified daily based upon soil moisture, agricultural operations, and crop stage.
The soil profile is divided into two layers. The top layer (200 mm) is used as a tillage
layer whose properties (bulk density, etc.) can change. The remaining soil profile
comprises the second layer whose properties remain static. Actual evapotranspiration is a
function of potential evapotranspiration calculated using the Penman equation and soil
moisture content.
Time of concentration in each cell can be either entered as input data or calculated by the
model. When calculated by the model, the cell time of concentration is the sum of the
travel times from the most hydraulically distant point for overland flow, shallow
concentrated flow, and concentrated flow within the cell. Calculations for the three flow
types are based upon the NRCS TR-55 (SCS, 1986) procedures.
2.2.1.2 Soil Erosion
Soil erosion in AnnAGNPS is simulated using the Revised Universal Soils Loss Equation
(RUSLE) (Renard et al., 1997). RUSLE is a set of mathematical equations that estimate
average annual soil loss and sediment yield resulting from interrill and rill erosion. It is
derived from the theory of erosion processes, more than 10,000 plot-years of data from
Model Descriptions 2-6
Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates
natural rainfall plots, and numerous rainfall-simulation plots. RUSLE was developed
from its predecessor, the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE, Wischmeier and Smith,
1978), and is expressed as:
A=RKLSCP
Where:
A =Average annual soil loss in tons per acre per year
R =Rainfall/runoff erosivity
K =Soil erodibility
LS = Field slope length and steepness
C =Cover/management factor
P =Conservation practice factor
The R factor is an expression of the erosivity of rainfall and runoff in the area of interest;
the R factor increases as the amount and intensity of rainfall increases. The K factor
represents the inherent erodibility of the soils in the area of interest under standard
experimental conditions. The K factor is expressed as a function of the particle-size
distribution, organic-matter content, structure, and permeability of the soils. The LS
factor represents the effect of topography, specifically field slope length and steepness,
on rates of soil loss at a particular site. The LS factor increases as field slope length and
steepness increase due to accumulation and acceleration of surface runoff as it flows in a
downslope direction. The C factor represents the effects of surface cover and roughness,
soil biomass, and soil-disturbing activities on rates of soil loss at the area of interest. The
C factor decreases as surface cover and soil biomass increase. The P factor represents the
effects of supporting conservation practices, such as contouring, buffer strips, and
terracing, on soil loss at the area of interest. The P factor decreases with the installation
of conservation practices because these practices reduce runoff volume and velocity, and
Model Descriptlons 2-7

Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates
encourage the deposition of sediment on the land surface before it reaches the surface
water.
AnnAGNPS uses the RUSLE equation only to predict sheet and rill erosion. The Hydro-
geomorphic Universal Soil Loss Equation (HUSLE) is used to estimate the delivery ratio
of the sediment yield from sheet and rill erosion to sediment delivery to the stream
(Theurer and Clarke, 1991). HUSLE calculates the total sediment yield for a storm event
to any point in the watershed using data on the average upstream RUSLE parameters,
upstream drainage area, volume of water runoff, peak discharge, and the RUSLE
regression coefficients for the applicable hydro-geomorphic area.
AnnAGNPS also establishes the particle-size distribution of the sediment yield of the
sheet and rill erosion to the receiving reach of the modeled stream. The particle-size
sediment deposition over the land surface is assumed to be proportional to the mass fall
velocity of the individual particle-size classes (sand, large and small aggregates, silt, and
clay). Particle-size classes are represented as the product of their densities and their fall
velocities, which generates a deposition mass rate for each particle-size. The deposition
mass rate values for each particle-size class are summed and normalized to generate
deposition ratio mass rates. Field deposition is determined from these calculations.
2.2.1.3 Sediment Transport
Sediment routing in AnnAGNPS is preformed in concentrated flow channels for the five
sediment particle-size classes for each increment of the hydrologic simulation. Inflow
from AnnAGNPS cells contains only the primary particles of clay, silt, and sand;
however, aggregates can be routed if they are present in the channel or from other
sources. Sediment concentrations in AnnAGNPS are defined as:
Cs = Sm/Wm
Where:
Cs = sediment concentration, expressed in Mg-sediment/Mg-water
Sm = sediment mass, expressed in Mg
Model Descriptions 2-8
Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates
Wm = water mass from the upstream drainage area, expressed in Mg
Sediment concentrations are assumed to be constant throughout the simulation.
Therefore, the sediment load for a given discharge at any time during the simulation can
be expressed as:
Qs = Cs*Qw
Where:
Cs = sediment concentration, expressed in Mg-sediment/Mg-water
Qs = unit-width sediment load, expressed in Mg/s/m
Qw = unit-width water discharge at a given time, expressed as Mg/s/m
AnnAGNPS simulates sediment transport capacity, unit-width water discharge, and shear
velocity (assuming unit-width) based upon parameters specified at the upstream end of
the modeled stream reach.
2.2.1.4 Sediment Deposition
Sediment routing for'each modeled stream reach is performed using a unit-width, steady-
state, spatially-variable sediment discharge model. The sediment routing procedure is the
same for all modeled reaches; upstream sediment discharges are calculated as the sum of
all incoming sediment loads from upstream reaches and the local sediment load
associated with the immediate upstream reach. Sediment loads from cells draining to
headwater streams are comprised only of local sediment loadings, because there are no
sediment loads originating from upstream reaches. The sediment routing equation is
expressed as:
Qs2 = Qsc + [(Qs 1- Qsc) * exp (-Nd))
Where:
Nd = sediment deposition number, non-dimensional
Model Descriptlons 2-9
Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates
Qsc = unit-width sediment transport capacity, expressed in Mg/s/m
Qs1 = upstream unit-width sediment discharge at X1, expressed in Mg/s/m
Qs2 = downstream unit-width sediment discharge at X2, expressed as Mg/s/m
Determination of the sediment deposition number, Nd, is calculated using the following
equation:
Nd = (Ae * Vf * L2) / Qw
Where:
Ae = Einstein's constant of proportionality, for any given flow and particle size,
between the depth-average suspended sediment concentration and the sediment
concentration at the laminar sublayer plane, non-dimensional
Vf = particle fall velocity, expressed in m/s
L2 = distance from Xl to X2, expressed in meters
Qw = unit-width water discharge, expressed in m3/s/m
For clay, silt, and small aggregates, Einstein's constant of proportionality is equal to one.
For sand and large aggregates, Einstein's constant of proportionality is derived as a
function of shear velocity, particle fall velocity, and a turbulent flow mixing length
constant. For cells draining headwater streams (i.e., primary cells), the distance from X1
to X2 is the distance from the most hydraulically distant point (X1) to the cell outlet
(X2). For cells draining larger areas (i.e., secondary cells) the distance from X1 to X2 is
the length of the concentrated flow channel segment for the reach. In all cases, X2
represents the cell outlet for each modeled reach. All incoming sediment loads from
upstream reaches enters the cell at the upstream end of the reach (X1). Sediment
loadings originating from within cells are assumed to be delivered to the downstream end
of the cell's associated reach (X2). Channel dimensions for each reach can be calculated
Model Descriptions 2-10
Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates
using either flow characteristics for the representative reach, or geomorphic
characteristics such as the drainage area at the upstream end of the respective reach.
2.2.1.5 SCS Runoff Curve Number Equation
The SCS runoff curve number method is a simple, widely used and efficient method for
determining the amount of runoff from a rainfall event in a particular area. Although the
method was originally designed for a single storm event, it has been successfully applied
to the AnnAGNPS continuous simulation model. The SCS runoff curve number equation
is expressed as:
Q = (WI - 0.2 S)2 / (WI + 0.8 S)
Where:
Q = surface runoff, expressed in mm
WI = water input to the soil, expressed in mm
S = soil retention parameter, expressed in mm
The soil retention parameter is calculated using the following equation:
S = 254 [(100/CN) -1] where CN is the curve number
The surface runoff curve number equation is based on trends observed in data from
collected sites, and is therefore an empirically-based equation rather than a physically-
based equation. SCS Curve Numbers were developed to classify the varying runoff
potentials of different soil types and land cover distributions, and are a function of
hydrologic soil group classification, land cover type, and antecedent soil moisture
conditions.
Curve number values can range between 0 and 100, although the, typical range is between
25 through 98. A land cover type with a curve number value of 98 is considered to bean
impervious surface such as pavement or the roof of a building; the high curve number
indicates that the area has a high runoff potential. Conversely, low curve numbers
Model Descriptions 2-11
• Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates
specify land cover types with low runoff potential, such as forested lands and other
undisturbed areas.
Curve numbers vary depending on antecedent moisture conditions; different curve
number values are assigned to land cover types under wet versus dry conditions.
AnnAGNPS use a slightly modified approach of the SCS Curve Number equation to
generate curve numbers for the modeled land cover types, in which a greater fraction of
the soil moisture input is apportioned to surface runoff as the precipitation amount and
soil water content of the soils increase. CN1 and CN3 are calculated as a function of
CN2. In AnnAGNPS, curve numbers are allowed to vary depending on soil water
content, and curve number values for the range of weather conditions (i.e., wet conditions
and dry conditions) are calculated as a function of the average curve number value for a
given land cover type.
2.2.2 AnnAGNPS Input Data Requirements
2.2.2.1 Climate Data
An input file containing daily climatic data is `required to run continuous simulations
using the AnnAGNPS model. AnnAGNPS requires six climatic elements for each day of
simulation, including daily precipitation, maximum and minimum daily temperature, sky
cover, average daily dew point temperature, and average daily wind speed data. Climate
data are of great importance in AnnAGNPS; daily precipitation data are the primary
driver of the hydrologic cycle, temperature data are used to define frozen conditions, and
the remaining climate elements are used in computing potential evapotranspiration.
Climate data used with AnnAGNPS may be historically recorded data, synthetically
generated data, or a combination of the two.
Historical precipitation data and other climate data are often available from sources such
as the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). A synthetic climate generator utility
program, GEM, is included in the AnnAGNPS modeling package, and generates
synthetic climate data based on the proximity of the study area to weather stations
included in the program. GEM generates daily precipitation, maximum and minimum
temperature, and solar radiation data. A separate program, Complete-Climate, is
Model Descriptions 2-12
Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates
:., included in the AnnAGNPS modeling package to generate climate data for the remaining
required input parameters (sky cover, dew point temperature, and wind speed). The
Complete-Climate program combines the GEM output file with climatic information on
sky cover, dew point temperature, and wind speed, to generate an output file containing
all six climatic elements needed as input to the AnnAGNPS model.
2.2.3 AnnAGNPS Model Setup Utilities
The Ann.AGNPS model package includes several tools and utilities to facilitate the
creation of the model input file, the running the AnnAGNPS model, and the processing of
model output. These utilities are described below.
2.2.3.1 AnnAGNPS Input Editor
The AnnAGNPS input editor guides users through all the steps needed to create the input
file. Data can be assessed and edited within the interface by clicking on the field name.
The input editor is the only tool needed to develop the input file for a small watershed
consisting of only a few cells and reaches; in instances where a more complex watershed
..::.? is modeled, reach and cell data can be imported from the AnnAGNPS ArcView interface
into the input editor.
2.2.3.2 AnnAGNPS ArcView Interface
The AnnAGNPS ArcView Interface assists the development of the AnnAGNPS model
input file by automating many of the input data preparation steps needed to develop the
input file, including stream reach (i.e., receiving reach, length, elevation, & slope) data,
and cell (i:e., drainage area, elevation, aspect, land slope, and receiving reach) data. The
ArcView Interface consists of two programs:
1) an existing operational computer model, TopAGNPS, which is a subset of the ARS
Topographic Parameterization (TOPAZ) model
2) a FORTRAN program, AgFlow, used to generate elevation-related stream reach input
parameters
For additional details on the AnnAGNPS ArcView Interface please see Appendix A.
Model Descriptions 2-13
Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates)
2.2.3.2.1 TOPAGNPS
a
TOPAZ (Topographic Parameterization) is a software package for automated analysis of
digital landscape topography, of which TopAGNPS is a subset program. The overall
objective of TOPAZ and TopAGNPS is to provide a comprehensive evaluation of the
digital landscape topography with particular emphasis on maintaining consistency
between all derived data, the initial input topography, and the physics underlying energy
and water flux processes at the landscape surface. A raster digital elevation model
(DEM) is used by TopAGNPS to identify and measure topographic features, define
surface drainage, subdivide watersheds along drainage divides, quantify the drainage
network, and calculate representative subcatchment parameters. The TOPAGNPS
software package consists of 3 programs: DEDNM, RASPRO, and RASFOR.
The DEDNM (Digital Elevation Drainage Network Model) program performs several
functions, including pre-processing the elevation data, performing hydrographic
watershed segmentation, defining the drainage network, watershed, and subwatershed
boundaries, and tabulating input parameters. The RASPRO (Raster Properties) program
derives additional spatial topographic information and parameters from the basic raster
datasets produced by the DEDNM program. The RASFOR (Raster Formatting) program
is a raster reformatting utility.
2.2.3.2.2 AGFLOW
The AGFLOW model uses output files from TOPAGNPS as input to generate input
parameters necessary for the AnnAGNPS model. TOPAGNPS model output is expressed
as raster data records which contain information on particular geographic features, such
as soil type, elevation, land use, and field slope.
AGFLOW is a FORTRAN program. The AGFLOW program generates five output files;
two files containing information on cell and reach parameters that are imported into the
AnnAGNPS input file, one file containing input to the VBFLOWNET program, one file
containing summary information for the delineated model subareas, and one log file for
the execution of the AGFLOW program. The key output from AGFLOW are the two
files containing the AnnAGNPS model's cell and reach parameters that are imported into
Model Descriptions 2-14
Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates
. the input editor to create the AnnAGNPS input file sections related to the cell and reach
data.
2.2.3.3 Output Post-processing
The AnnAGNPS modeling package contains a model output processor which converts
output from AnnAGNPS into tabular format with table headings, and summarizes event
output by reach. The output processor organizes output by type, such as water, sediment
class and/or source, nitrogen, phosphorus, etc. Output data can be displayed by
individual event (i.e., event output) or by an individual pollutant of interest (i.e., source
accounting output). The event output file contains runoff and pollutant information for
selected reaches and the watershed outlet for each day there is runoff, summarized by
individual runoff event. Data simulated at the watershed outlet are always included in the
event output file, along with data simulated at any reaches specified by the user in the
AunAGNPS input file. Runoff must be simulated in the specified reaches (measured at
the upstream end of the reach) in order to be included in the event output file. The event
output file can be in specified in either English or metric units in the AnnAGNPS input
data file.
The source accounting output file contains information regarding the pollutant
contribution of a specified component (i.e., cell, reach, etc.) to the watershed outlet or a
specified watershed reach over the simulation period. Output data are expressed as a
fraction of the outlet or reach accumulations for a given parameter. Output can be
generated for each of the following categories: water (flow), sediment class, sediment
source, nutrients, and pesticides. The source accounting output file can be specified in
either English or metric units in the AnnAGNPS input data file.
2.3 GWLF and AnnAGNPS Model Comparisons
This section compares the two models and their capabilities to assess the pollutant load
changes resulting from projects such as the construction of the Northern Beltway
Extension in Forsyth County, North Carolina. It should first be noted that the two models
span the limits of complexity in the spectrum of watershed modeling. AnnAGNPS is a
detailed watershed-scale continuous simulation pollutant loading model, while GWLF is
Model Descriptions 2-15
Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates)
classified as a screening-level model developed for planning-level analyses. Such an
observation does not imply that one model is better suited that the other to make more
accurate pollutant loading predictions; such conclusions will be discussed and evaluated
after presenting the results of applying the two models to estimate sediment and nutrient
loads in the study area potentially impacted by the beltway construction.
2.3.1 Data Input Preparation
Overall, both models require similar climatic data to drive the hydrologic simulations.
GWLF is a lumped-parameter model, as opposed to AnnAGNPS, which is a distributed-
parameter model whereby the watershed is divided into cells with unique physical
characteristics. Information specific to each cell is required as input to the AnnAGNPS
model. Similar information is required for each reach such as the reach depth, width, etc.
The level of data required depends upon the degree of schematization and segmentation
delineated for the watershed. In AnnAGNPS, model computations are done at the cell
level, and runoff, sediment, and nutrients are routed cell to cell from the watershed
boundaries to the outlet. Because of its distributed approach, the spatial data
requirements are related to the resolution level specified by the user. In terms of the
level of effort required to set up the input files, the differences between the two models
are enormous. AnnAGNPS is considerably more complex and requires a much longer
period of time to setup the model; however, AnnAGNPS does have a suite of utilities to
help develop the input file and process the output.
As mentioned in Section 2.1.3, the estimated time to develop the input files and run the
GWLF model ranges from;: a few days to approximately one week. On the other hand,
collecting, formatting, and setting-up all the necessary data for the AnnAGNPS model
can take a few months. Another consideration in the use of AnnAGNPS is the time
needed to get familiar with the model; in a similar application of AnnAGNPS in a
Georgia watershed, it took the investigators approximately eight months just to collect
the required data and setup the input data files (Suttles et. al., 2003).
>i
Model Descriptlons 2-16
Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates
2.3.2 Modeling Land and Stream Processes
GWLF and AnnAGNPS simulate land processes (runoff quantity and quality) using
similar and standard methods. GWLF applies the algorithms to one unique "land-mass" ,
or source area, while AnnAGNPS simulates land processes at the cell level. AnnAGNPS
is primarily intended for use in agricultural watersheds, and the majority of its algorithms
are developed for sediment and pollutant exports from cropland. The implementation of
the model in a watershed with diverse land-uses, such as the area encompassed by the
proposed Northern Beltway Extension, requires the modification and adjustment of some
input variables to mimic urban land uses loading functions as "cropland".
GWLF is not intended to simulate in-stream processes, and is thus not considered a fully
integrated watershed model (i.e., GWLF does not simulate the quality and quantity of the
runoff, and also the fate and transpdrt of the pollutant loads into the river reaches). On
the other hand, AnnAGNPS has the capability of routing the flow, sediment, and
nutrients through the different reaches' to the watershed outlet. The current version of L
AnnAGNPS does not simulate groundwater' flow or return flow to the stream, its `?'
applicability is limited to simulating and routing only surface runoff. Another limitation
of the in-stream capabilities of AnnAGNPS is that it is applicable only for watersheds in
which storm runoff is routed in one day or less. AnnAGNPS uses the SCS curve number
approach combined with a 24-hour unit hydrograph routing procedure. Consequently,
any in-stream application of AnnAGNPS should be limited to a watershed with a travel
time of less than 24 hours.
2.3.3 Model Documentation
Any efficient modeling application is highly dependent on the availability of clear and
concise documentation. The published GWLF documentation is acceptable and adequate
for such a screening-level model. On the other hand, the main limitation in the
implementation of AnnAGNPS is the lack of comprehensive and detailed information on
key processes and algorithms. While the AnnAGNPS documentation appears to be
exhaustive, it is missing detailed information on key processes with respect to how the
model simulates land and reach processes. In other words, the AnnAGNPS
documentation is incomplete and insufficient for modelers to efficiently and rapidly
Model Descriptions 2-17
Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates
calibrate and use the model to address management scenarios. The contractor modeling
team spent considerable time developing and implementing sensitivity runs to understand
the impact of specific variables on key sediment and nutrient outputs. In addition, the
model algorithm and utilities contained several bugs and errors, although the majority of
these errors were fixed in the release of the latest version of AnnAGNPS in April 2005.
a
Model Descriptions 2-18
Winston-Saleni • Beltway Pollutant Load Estimatesi
3.0 Modeling Strategy
This section describes the available data utilized in the setup of the AnnAGNPS and
GWLF input files. The data include information on physiographic characteristics such as
streams, soils, topography, land cover types, stream geometry data, existing sources of
pollutants within the study area, as well as flow and ambient water quality data. In
addition, this section presents the approach selected to calibrate the two models based on
the available observed stream flow and water quality data.
3.1 Study Area Delineation
This section defines and details the study area where changes in pollutant loading might
result from the construction of the Winston-Salem Northern Beltway extension. The first
step in this process was to define the-study area based on the identification of waterbodies
included on the North Carolina Water Quality Assessment and Impaired Waters List that
will potentially be affected by the proposed beltway extension. Additionally, several
streams recognized as waters of concern in the Yadkin-Pee Dee River Basinwide Water
Quality Plan are also located within the proposed beltway extension Study Area
Delineation.
The study area was defined by examining the 2002 and 2004 North Carolina Water
Quality Assessment and Impaired Waters Lists (Integrated 305(b) and 303(d) Report;
DWQ, 2002; 2004), as well as the Yadkin-Pee Dee River Basinwide Water Quality Plan
(DWQ, 2003). Waterbodies that were included on the Water Quality Assessment and
Impaired Waters Lists, or that were identified as waters of concern in the Yadkin-Pee
Dee River Basinwide Water Quality Plan, were analyzed for potential pollutant impacts
that may result from the construction of the Winston-Salem Northern Beltway extension.
Specific streams of concern included Muddy Creek, Salem Creek, Silas Creek, Mill
Creek, Little Creek, Reynolds Creek, Kerners Mill Creek, and the South Fork Muddy
Creek. Descriptions of each of the streams of concern are presented below, and are
summarized in Tables 3-1 and 3-2. Figure 3-1 presents the locations of the streams of
concern.
?? -r r-a W4
Modeling Strategy 3-1
Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates
Table 3-1: Summary of 303(d) Listed Streams in Winston-Salem Beltway Study Area

Waterbody 303(?;ILi1 tii"
3 )rairment
'
t:
i
Date b
t
>lm
Urban Runoff/Storm
Muddy Creek 2004 Biological Sewers
Fecal Coliform, Agriculture, Urban
Salem Creek 2002, 2004 Turbidity, Biological. Runoff/Storm Sewers
Agriculture, Urban
Reynolds Creek 2002, 2004 Biological Runoff/Storm Sewers
Little Creek 2004 Biological Unknown
Table 3-2: Summary of Non-Impaired Waters of Concern In Winston-Salem Beltway Study
Area

Stormwater runoff; nonpoint
Mill Creek Habitat degradation ll
ti
source po
u
on
Stormwater runoff, nonpoint
Silas Creek Habitat degradation ll
ti
n
source po
u
o
Stormwater runoff; nonpoint
Kerners Mill Creek Habitat degradation ll
ti
source po
u
on
Stormwater runoff; nonpoint
South Fork Muddy Creek Habitat degradation urce
ollution
so
p
Muddy Creek, which flows through the proposed construction area, is listed on the draft
2004 Water Quality Assessment and Impaired Waters List due to impaired biological
communities present in the creek. The impaired segment of Muddy Creek extends from
the confluence of Muddy Creek and Salem Creek upstream to state road 2995
downstream. Both fish community data and benthic invertebrate data collected in Muddy
Creek by DWQ indicate biological impairment. The Yadkin-Pee Dee River Basinwide
Water Quality Plan also indicates that elevated nutrients, turbidity, and fecal coliform
data were observed in Muddy Creek over a 5-year monitoring period from 1996-2001.
The water quality plan attributes the impairment in Muddy Creek primarily to nonpoint
source pollution from construction sites and developed areas.
Salem Creek, a tributary of Muddy Creek, was listed on the 2002 Water Quality
Assessment and Impaired Waters List as impaired due to turbidity and fecal coliform
bacteria. The 2002 List also indicates Salem Creek has a "historical listing for sediment
Modeling Strategy 3-2
Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates
based on biological impairment." The draft 2004 North Carolina Water Quality
y? Assessment and Impaired Waters List indicates that Salem Creek has been delisted for
turbidity as a result of recent chemical monitoring data, and that a Total Maximum Daily
Load (TMDL) study is currently underway for the fecal coliform impairment. The
Yadkin-Pee Dee River Basinwide Water Quality Plan indicates that fecal coliform
concentrations in Salem Creek exceeded 400 cfu/100mL in over 20 percent of samples
collected between 1996 and 2001. Biological monitoring conducted by DWQ showed the
benthic invertebrate community in Salem Creek was rated as `fair' and the fish
community was rated as `poor' during biological assessments. The water quality plan
also recommends that measures to reduce sedimentation, turbidity, and fecal coliform
contamination, as well as habitat restoration measures, be implemented to restore Salem
Creek.
Reynolds Creek, a tributary of Muddy Creek located in the western section of the study
area, was included on the 2002 and draft 2004 Water Quality Assessment and Impaired
Waters Lists based on biological surveys that indicated an impaired benthic invertebrate
community in the creek downstream of the Sequoia Wastewater Treatment Plant
(WWTP). Although the WWTP no longer discharges into Reynolds Creek, the Yadkin-
Pee Dee River Basinwide Water Quality Plan indicated that stormwater runoff from the
town of Lewisville may be a source of nonpoint source pollution to the creek. The draft
2004 Water Quality Assessment and Impaired Waters List indicates that a stressor
identification study will be performed on Reynolds Creek by 2006 in order to determine
the primary stressor causing the biological impairment.
Little Creek, a tributary of Muddy Creek, is also included on the draft 2004 Water
Quality Assessment and Impaired Waters List for biological impairment. The impaired
segment of Little Creek extends from its headwaters down to its confluence with Grants
Creek. The cause of biological impairment in Little Creek is not currently known, and
Little Creek is not listed on the draft 2004 list as one of the streams for which a stressor
identification study will be performed by 2006 in order to determine the cause of
biological impairment in the creek.
Modeling Strategy 3-3
Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates
The streams described above were the only waters encompassed by the proposed beltway
extension that were included on the 2002 and draft 2004 Water Quality Assessment and
Impaired Waters Lists. However, several additional waters were present which were not
classified as impaired based on DWQ's most recent use support assessment, but in which
the Yadkin-Pee Dee River Basinwide Water Quality Plan indicates that notable water
quality impacts have been documented. Mill Creek and Silas Creek, both tributaries of
Muddy Creek, are two such waters. The water quality plan states that these streams are
likely being impacted by stormwater runoff from the City of Winston-Salem. Fish
community data collected in Silas Creek in 2001 indicated that the biological community
in the stream was impaired. Silas Creek was resampled in 2002 and received a `Good-
Fair' bioclassification, but this higher score may be attributed to drought conditions
which temporarily reduced the loading of nonpoint source pollution to the creek. The
lower two-thirds of the Mill Creek watershed are also predominantly developed, similar
to Silas Creek, making it likely that Mill Creek is experiencing similar problems to those
documented in Silas Creek. Kerners Mill Creek and South Fork Muddy Creek are the
other streams in which notable water quality impacts have been documented. The
Yadkin-Pee Dee River Basinwide Water Quality Plan indicates that habitat degradation
has been observed in Kerners Mill Creek, potentially resulting from stormwater runoff
from construction sites and developed areas. Similarly, substantial habitat degradation
was observed in South Fork Muddy Creek, which borders the City of Winston-Salem and
is experiencing increasing development as formerly agricultural lands are built up into
residential communities. Figure 3-2 depicts the delineated study area, which encompasses
all of the waterbodies described above. The study area is approximately 145,719 acres
(228 square miles), and includes sections of Forsyth, Stokes, and Davidson counties.
Modeling Strategy 34
Winston-Salern Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates

Figure 3-1: Waters of Concern in Proposed Winston-Salem Beltway Extension Study Area
I -
.r -.

_I
"± - M Creel

• y5
"
5 f
r
r
W Creale
? f ar:
1, - K South Fork Muddy Creels
/V3(d) Listed Segments N
Waters of Concern
wlnston-Salem Beltway wu E
Study Area Streams
Forsyth County Boundary S
Streams
. $ 0 6 Age s
Modeling Strategy

3-5
Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates
Figure 3-2: Delineated Study Area for Pollutant Loading Estimates
•I,
-'L Y

t.. . i•
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CFeek

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y .
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South Fork Mud'. Crevk
303(d) Listed Segments N
1a+wlatera of Concern ?
J
Winston-Salem Beltway
4"
Studer Area Streams W E
Forsyth County Boundary
Delineated Study Area ?
Streams
t a kvtoo s

Modeling Strategy 3-6

:.j 3.2 Climate Data
Pollutant loadings and weather data used to simulate the rainfall-runoff dynamics for the
two models as well as the pollutant loadings were obtained from the National Climate
Data Center (NCDC). These data include meteorological data (hourly precipitation) and
surface airways data (including wind speed/direction, ceiling height, dry bulb
temperature, dew point temperature, and solar radiation). Data collected at four area
weather stations, Greensboro International Airport, Yadkinville, Lexington, and Dalton,
were used in pollutant load estimation. The Greensboro International Airport recorded
data from 1928 to the present, the Yadkinville weather station recorded data from 1940 to
the present, the Lexington weather station recorded data from 1948 to the present, and the
Dalton weather station recorded data from 1948 to 1999. For this study, weather data
recorded at the area stations were combined based on their location with respect to the
study area. This was done in order-to better represent the weather patterns, which may
vary in different sections of the study area. Figure 3-3 depicts the location of the weather
stations. Section 3.6.2 presents the analysis used in selecting the simulation period as
well as the associated rainfall pattern statistics.
Figure 3-3: Weather Stations Used in Pollutant Load Estimation
fto
Mill cm I
. ,? l 111 •. . i ? i ? ??2 - ? ??° ( ?
no PICIV croak
• ?, K.m.rs Mill Croak s'
i Oat Crook
a 1,• ` i Salnn Crsek [f ,::_ . I r L, 7 ='r
V w tip„ ,^.a, / '•/r•.{,I
j ?;:' .lC^ SOUK Fork MUM Crook l l; \ ;r• . r-''S,r
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1 :?.n,f Yr''., i P ..51 ?„_.. "`f_-", .:; .q.. ? • r ; r' F??i ` J?x. '[ t ,- ,'
?'ry.:. 1 t.t f )•..?.??f :V i\,? '?:.• ''. .?Y• ?•?? ?t •!' -'.,f .. ^ =',?r ? % ,! •j :' ?r :?l r-` ,`r'
/, i ',•, , ?y ! t.?~-•l ^•k? :;-e:r•'" .`, , UR ?•• i .• tti.? ' i }.. ?'•..,,,, lY.• J ,?? ? _S..
`
.ifs „.r i• ;! `.+.'•,r:..^ f' S r1 ne/1TM1'__,:: r`? ?rti.•,._ . ?..>,•..Y.}?t .r•?•S
V ;= Y• _ J ?'f' ee"1 yY•? ..`..'.i t•`-?a'iRi
1. r •? 4 ,
• } ?•.\ .s^' ,'!f _. t ? ? xr '; t• a'i"• I ,r.G. ;`?l," i' . t,_l, w
Modeling Strategy 3-7
Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates
3.3 Soils
The characteristics of the soils within the study area were used as input for the two
models. The characterization of the soils distribution was performed using the State Soil
Geographic (STATSGO) dataset developed by the Natural Resource Conservation
Service. There are five general soil associations present within the study area: Cecil-
Hiwassee-Pacolet, Pacolet-Madison-Cecil, Mecklenburg-Iredell-Enon, Wilkes-Pacolet-
Enon, and Urban Land-Cecil-Enon. The majority of the soils in the study are comprised
of the Cecil-Hiwassee-Pacolet and Urban Land-Cecil-Enon soil associations. The
distribution of soils in the study area is presented in Table 3-3 and Figure 3-4.
Table 3-3: Soil Types and Characteristics
Map Unit ib , Soil gssoclatlon Percent of
Study Area Hydrologic Soil
Group
NC074 Cecil-Hiwassee-Pacolet 71.4 B/C
NC075 Pacolet-Madison-Cecil 1.0 B/C
NC086 Mecklenburg-Iredell-Enon 3.0 B/C
NC087 Wilkes-Pacolet-Enon 0.4 B/C/D
NC 110 Urban Land-Cecil-Enon 24.2 B/C
The predominant hydrological soils group classifications for each soil association are also
presented in Table 3-3. The hydrologic soil groups represent the different levels of
infiltration capacity of the soils (Table 3-4). Hydrologic soil group "A" designates soils
that are well to excessively well drained, whereas hydrologic soil group "D" designates
soils that are poorly drained. The study area contains soils with moderate to slow
infiltration rates, as designated by hydrologic soil groups "B" and "C".
Modeling Strategy 3-8
Table 3-4: Descriptions of Hydrologic Soil Groups
Winston-Salem Northern Beltway PPollutant Load Estirnates:?
3.4 Topography
A 30-meter digital elevation model (DEM) obtained from the U.S. Geological Survey
(USGS) was used to characterize the topography of the study area. Elevation in the study
area ranged from 570 to 1,080 feet above mean sea level, with an average watershed
elevation of 825 feet above mean sea level. The DEM was also needed for the
segmentation of the watershed necessary to implement the AnnAGNPS model. The
Ann.AGNPS segmentation of the study area is described in Section 4.2 and detailed steps
of the segmentation are presented in Appendix A.
Modeling Strategy 3-9
Fieure 34: Soils Distribution in Study Area
Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates
3.5 Stream Geometry
Stream geometry data were collected at 140 transects throughout the study area in order
to assist in modeling efforts and to better characterize the waterbodies of concern. The
AnnAGNPS model requires input information on stream geometry and specifically the
relationships between reach drainage areas and the bankfull reach depths and widths. The
data collected included measurements of bankfull channel height, width, and side slopes
at each station, as well as measurements of the wetted channel height, width, and side
slopes for all stations. To insure that the measured stream channel reaches and the
corresponding hydraulic regressions were representative of the entire study area, the
study area was delineated into five major sub-basins. In each of these sub-basins,
channel measurements were taken at representative reaches of the mainstem before and
after the confluence of all major tributaries, as well as at representative reaches of all
major tributaries. The location of the stream geometry data collection transects is
presented in Figure 3-5. Additional details regarding the transect data and measurements
and the bankfull hydraulic geometry relationships generated are presented in Appendix B.
Modeling Strategy 3-10
M
d
CD
C
•d
13
O
2
Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates
3.6 Existing Land Cover Conditions
Existing land cover conditions within the study area were characterized using the 1 g9 ,
North Carolina Statewide Land Cover dataset developed by the North Carolina Center for
Geographic Information and Analysis. The distribution of land cover in the study area
using this dataset is presented in Table 3-5. Forested lands (53.5%), agricultural lands
(30.3%) and developed lands (14.5%), all account for a significant portion of the land
cover distribution in the study area. Figure 3-6 depicts the existing land cover
distribution within the watershed. Forested lands are dispersed relatively evenly
throughout the watershed. Cultivated lands (i.e., cropland) and managed herbaceous
cover (i.e., pastureland managed for livestock grazing) are also generally present
throughout the study area, expect in the City of Winston-Salem. The majority of the
developed lands are-located in the central section of the study area, and are associated
with the City of Winston-Salem.
Table 3-5: Existing Land Cover Conditions in Study Area
Low-intensi' Develo ed 10267.4 7.0
Developed Hi -intensity Developed 10839.4 7.4
Mired Hardwoods/Conifers 3739.9 2.6
Mixed U land Hardwoods 68403.0 46.9
Mountain Conifers 13.2 0.01
Forested Othei`Broadleaf Ever een Forests 6.8 0.005
Other Needleleaf Deciduous Forests 14.7 0.01
Southern Yellow Pine' 5817.2 4.0
' Deciduous Shrubland 973.9 0.7
hrubland Evergreen Shrubland 382.2 0.3
Cultivated 2464.4 1.7
ana'ed.Herbaceous Cover 40508.4 27.8
Agricultural Unconsolidated Sediment 65.9 0.05
Unmanaged Herbaceous Upland 1140.3 0.8
Water Bodies 848.0 0.6
Water Bottomland Forest/ Hardwood Swamps 234.4 0.2
Total 145,719 100
Appendix C 3-12
Va..,,,.o 't_K. F.vicfinv Conditions Land Cover Distribution

4 f ? 1? •.

. ; r K

,'
# ??-• * yC, a . ?-

t.

Study Area. Vrearns
Forsyth County Boundary
Winston-Salem BeftwaY
Land UsefUUW Cover asap r}roJ eurx) Nodti 1Caro 161 t, ca
= Wafer Bodies F??-,e 1
High intensity Developed ? ? ° ? arras
L.ovr Intensity Developed
Deciduous Forest
Evergreen Fomt
Mad Forest N
Cuffiwated
Unmanaged Herbaceous Upland w ? E
Managed Herbaceous Cover
Unconsaldabed Sedtrnert
MorN and Forest l'ardwood Swamps

Appendix C
3-13
Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates
3.7 Projected Land Cover Scenarios
Land cover projections were developed for the study area in order to evaluate the
potential impacts of the construction of the Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Extension
on pollutant loadings under future scenarios. Two future scenarios were examined; the
projected land cover distribution in the year 2015 without the construction of the beltway
extension (the no-build scenario), and the 2015 projected land cover distribution with the
constructed Northern Beltway Extension (the build-out scenario). Projected land cover
data was developed based on the Indirect and Cumulative Impact Assessment study
conducted for the Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Project, as well as the Forsyth
County Growth Management Plan that was developed by the Winston-Salem/Forsyth
County City-County Planning Board in 2001 as part of its comprehensive Legacy Plan.
3.7.1 Indirect and Cumulative Impact Assessment Study
The Indirect and Cumulative Impact Assessment study was conducted to address
potential direct and indirect cumulative impacts resulting from the construction of the
Northern Beltway Extension. The Piedmont Triad regional travel model was used to
assign impacts to specific areas (traffic analysis zones) and to evaluate changes in land
use and development resulting from the beltway construction, as well as future growth
changes in the absence of the Northern Beltway Extension. Results of the analysis
indicated that future growth generally followed the patterns specified under the Legacy
Plan. Additionally, the study estimated that construction of the Northern Beltway would
have 'minimal effect on overall residential development" (i.e., less than a five percent
residential development increase as compared to the no-build scenario for all traffic
analysis zones examined). However, the study also identified some areas, particularly
around interchanges of the proposed beltway, where commercial and some residential
development would increase in response to the beltway's construction.
3.7.2 Winston-Salem Comprehensive Legacy Plan
The Forsyth County Growth Management Plan and Legacy Plan were developed as tools
to help manage growth and control urban sprawl, create more compact and efficient
development patterns, make more efficient use of existing developed land, and preserve
open space and rural character in the county. To this end, the Growth Management Plan
Appendix C 3-14
•
fanning areas: 1) municipal services areas,
divided Forsyth County into three major p town centers, and
which of Winston-Salem as well as urban boulevards,
of currently
other dinceveludeloped the City activity owth areas, which
centers; 2) attire ? e residential,
lands that have been identified as °p rural areas ities 9 for which futuare to remain
undeveloped and; 3)
commercial, and industrial development,
character of the area.
undeveloped in order to preserve the rural
NPS Model Land Cover Projections aforementioned studies, projected land
3.7.3 AnnAG growth projections established by th ollutant impacts
Using the GNPs model to estimate p
or use in the AnnA
cover was developed f future scenarios. Land cover under these scenarios was
under the no-build and build-out rspondence with the Forsyth County S Legacy P
model
;a ear 2015 in
projected for the y ven to the specific format in which the AnnAG
the existing conditions
' particular attention was gi comparative purposes,
For GNPs land
required the input land cover data. re 3-7. The projected AnnA
d data is presented in Figu e 3-9The projected
AnnAGNPS land cover
enario is presented in Figure
resented in Figure 3-9• As
cover under the no-buil future
the sc build -out future scenario is p 1
Y? area
AnnAGNPS land cover un
-:':`?? - the eatest focus of land development ?'? on--Salem and at
evidenced in Figure 3-8, gr the vic of Winst
-build scenari o was predicted to be in m1tY Legacy Plan. Similar
under the no the Forsyth County o (Figure ;_. Centers" specified in 3-9);
the "Metro Activity
were predicted under the build-out scenari
patterns of land developme and residential development
additionally, was predicted around th proposed
erc?al an
comm
beltway interchanges under this scenario. designation
le land cover GNPS model generates a sing
should be noted that the AnnA classification for that cell.
Itthe dominant land cover
..-_ a
for each model cell representing land cover
generating the no-build and build -out projected sat the scale
Therefore, the objective In e condition
to create a reasonable estimation of the likely a scale finer than that of
coverages was project land cover a
the AnnP,GNPS model cells, and not to act Assessment
of
should be noted that the Indirect and Cumulative id-out scenario is
these cells. It also
- ro ected land cover under the
much of this development would likely
study results indicated that although p J e 3 9,
expected to develop as specified in Figure
3-15
Appendix C
occur with or without the beltway's construction (Figure 3-8). The pollutant impacts
modeled under the build-out scenario likely would not all result from the beltway's
construction, since much of this development was predicted to occur under the no-build
land cover projection. Therefore, the pollutant loading impact of constructing the
Winston-Salem Northern Beltway extension was quantified as the sediment, nitrogen,
and phosphorus loads estimated under the build-out projection scenario, minus the loads
estimated under the no-build projection scenario.
3.7.4 GWLF Model's Use of Land Cover Projections
The no-build and build-out future land cover projections were also modeled using the
GWLF model. Unlike the AnnAGNPS model, which required the land cover data to be
input for each specific model-cell, GWLF is a simple lumped-parameter model in which
the land cover conditions are input to the model by specifying the number of hectares
present of each land cover type, without respect to the spatial distribution of the land
cover types within the study area. Therefore, the number of hectares of each land cover
type (forest, cropland, pasture, high,, intensity development, and low intensity
development) were calculated from the Ann.AGNPS projected land cover scenarios
(Figures 3-8 and 3-9) and input into the GWLF model. This insured concordance among
the modeling systems with respect to the no-build and build-out land cover projections,
and also simplified the development ,of the pollutant loading estimates generated by
GWLF for the projected land cover scenarios. Additional details regarding the
development of the no-build and build-out projected land cover scenarios are presented in
Appendix C.
Appendix C
3-16
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Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates
3.8 Permitted Point Sources
Eleven permitted facilities are located within the study area boundaries (Figure 3-10).
The name, permit number, design flow, and receiving waterbody of each facility are
summarized in Table 3-6. Three of these facilities discharge directly into waterbodies of
concern for pollutant impacts from the proposed beltway extension, including the largest
facility, the Elledge WWTP. Three additional facilities discharge to tributaries of the
waterbodies of concern.
Table 3-6: Summary of NPDES Permitted Facilities Located in the Study Area

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N00086011 Winston-Salem City/ 0.50 UT Muddy Creek
Neilson WTP

N00051489 Three R'S Mobile Home
0.012
Leak Creek
Pik
N00057223 Head Mobile Home Park 0.0016 UT Little Creek

N00037834 Winston-Salem Elledge
30.0
Salem Creek
WWTP
N00080853 Lucent Technologies Inc[ 0.301 UT Salem Creek
Salem Business Park

N00079821 Winston-Salem - R.A.
0.00
Salem Creek
Thomas WTP
N00057509 Sequoia WWTP 0.135 Reynolds Creek
N00085871 Flakt Products Inc. , 0.086 Brushy Fork
N00085138 . , Lowes Foods 0.014 UT Smith Creek
NCO061204 Scarleft-Acres MHP 0.02 UT Mill Creek

N00055093 R.J. Reynolds -
0.00
Barkers Creek
TobaccoVille
mgd: million gallons per day

Appendix C 3-20
?. ".1141 1. ^
JTJVHMr'MJ6MrM-Azk1M- 111M Figure 3-10: Location of Permitted Facilities in Study Area

iNCOMM

=?• N00061204
a

' N00004707 NC0004707
N00087509 '
1
N00085871
NCOOGS138
M00067223 N0007®621 r :+

NC008E011Z Nt00A0989 } :.?.:
,.ir •y ; 'x, NCO037834 i_ .» - `. -' }•. r
r t - - .- •. .,...•• NG0061489 , ,

3.9 Agricultural Pollutant Sources
Information regarding crops, livestock, and conservation practices within Forsyth County
and the Winston-Salem study area was obtained from the Forsyth County Farm Service
Agency, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) National Agricultural Statistics
Service, and the Purdue University Conservation Technology Information Center. These
data were used and incorporated in the development of the Ann.AGNPS input file; the
GWLF model did not require and could not ii=rporate such information. Because the
vast majority of the study area lies within Forsyth County, area-adjusted agricultural
information for the County was used to develop the AnnAGNPS input file. The most
recent available data were used; data from the Forsyth County Farm Service Agency
were available for 2004, and data from the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service
and the Conservation Technology Information Center were available for 2002.
Appendix C 3-21
Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates)
3.9.1 Pasture and Crop Estimates
The Forsyth County Farm Service Agency estimates that 18,047 acres within Forsyth
County are in agricultural production as either row crops, pasture lands, or the production
of hay. Approximately half (9,400 acres) of this land is used as pasture or to produce
hay, while the remaining (8,647 acres) land is used to produce row crops. Crops
produced in Forsyth County include tobacco, soybeans, corn, small grains, and various
produce crops. The row crops produced and agricultural land cover types present in
Forsyth County are summarized in Table 3-7.
Table 3-7: Summary of Row Crop Production and Land cover, Types in Forsyth County,
NC
'S5 7 n 1 6 .n } S T4
\
-.'L7n( x ??y?U ?f1 it 1 4L '.t 1u '
Pasture 7,000
Hay 2,400
Tobacco 1,647
Soybeans 200
Corn 1,500
Small Grains 2,300
Produce Crops 600
Total 18,047
Source: Forsyth County >F "arm Service Agency'
3.9.2 Conservation and 'Crop Management Practices
Data regarding conservation and crop management practices were obtained from the
Purdue University Conservation Technology Information Center and the USDA National
Agricultural Statistics Service. The USDA agricultural census data indicated that
approximately 13,644 acres in Forsyth County were treated with commercial fertilizer in
2002, and that manure spreading occurred on 866 acres in Forsyth County that same year.
Additionally, the 2002 census data indicated that 537 acres used for agricultural
production within the County were irrigated. Data were also obtained from the
Conservation Technology Information Center that quantified conservation tillage
practices within Forsyth County. These data are summarized in Table 3-8.
Appendix C 3-22
LVI • MORIM, BKO-111

Table 3-8: Summarv of Tillage Conservation Practices in Forsyth County, NC
.,
griculturaX Land Dover
? I -;C?f t x
alb' Othe>P Tlge 1 i{'eti`es ('acres`)
Y
,
T e '' , t end ?eifi >daly' 1
Tobacco 0 0 1,198
Soybeans (Full Season) 905 107 488
Soybeans (Double Cropped) 600 0 900
Corn 456 24 1,221
Small Grains (Spring Seeded) 0 0 650
Small Grains (Fall Seeded) 88 0 1,712
Total 2,049 131 6,169
Source: Conservation Technology Research Center
it should be noted that there are some small discrepancies between the number of Forsyth
County acres in production for various crops (Table 3-7) and the number of acres in the
County that are presented in the summary of conservation tillage practices (Table 3-8).
This is due to the fact that the data presented in Table 3-7 were estimates for 2004, while
the most recent available conservation tillage data from the Conservation Technology
Research Center were from 2002. There is a general decreasing trend in agricultural
production within Forsyth County,' corresponding to increases in urbanization and
residential development in the Winston-Salem area. Therefore, it is logical that the
conservation tillage data from 2002, show slightly higher numbers of acres in production
for the various crops than the Forsyth County Farm Service Agency data for 2004.
3.9.3 Livestock Estimates
Livestock can be a potential source of nutrients within a watershed. In this section, we
present the approach used to estimate the spatial distribution of nutrient production from
the livestock within the watershed. These application rates were included in the
AnnAGNPS model to incorporate the nutrient source from livestock. The nutrient
produced by the livestock within each subbasin was assumed to be uniformly applied on
pasture acres within each respective subbasin. The livestock estimates for Forsyth
County were obtained from the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service. The most
Appendix C 3-23
Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates
recent available agricultural census data were collected in 2002. Cattle, horses, goats,
sheep, and lambs all reside within Forsyth County. Estimates for each livestock type are
summarized in Table 3-9.
Table 3-9: Livestock Estimates for Forsyth County, NC

Cattle and Calves 5,771
Horses and Ponies 1,715
Goats 763,
Sheep and Lambs 262
Source: USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service
3.9.4 Livestock Nutrient Production Estimates
Using the USDA livestock estimates (Table 3-9) cows were identified as the most
commonly occurring livestock within the county and therefore were considered the main
source of livestock nutrient loadings. Beef cattle ;comprised 47% of the 5,771 cows in
Forsyth County, while dairy cattle comprised; of less than 7% of the total number of
cows. The remaining 46% of cattle were not; identified by the USDA livestock estimates
as either beef or dairy cattle. Because there were only 13 dairy farms in Forsyth County,
nutrient loadings were only estimated from farms beef cattle, and not from dairy farms.
The study area was divided into. several subbasins (Figure 3-11) and livestock estimates
were developed for each subbasin.
The county livestock numbers were refined from the county level to the subbasin level by
first using the livestock estimates for each zip code within the county. Using ArcGIS, the
zip code layer was ` clipped to each subbasin boundary. Using this calculated area,
estimates for the number of cows in each subbasin were determined. The location of the
cattle within the subbasin was assumed to be within the cells that are within areas with
pasture as the dominant land cover.
The mass of phosphorus and nitrogen produced by each feedlot was estimated using the
production rate per head of cattle per day, based on waste production estimates complied
from the North Carolina Nutrient Management Database on Forsyth County. The
Appendix C 3-24
production rate used for phosphorous was 0.38 lbs/day/animal and for nitrogen was 0.23
lbs/day/animal. The manure application rates were incorporated into the AnnAGNPS
input file. Estimated nitrogen and phosphorous production and manure application rates
for each subbasin are presented in Appendix D.

3.10 Septic Systems
Failing and aging septic systems are also a potential source of nutrients in the watershed.
In this section, the approach used to derive the potential nutrient loads from failing septic
systems is presented. Such information was included in the AnnAGNPS input file. There
are no readily available data on the total number of septic systems in the watershed.
3-25
Appendix C
Y
Figure 3-11: Subbasins within the Study Area
Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates
Using the U.S. Census Bureau housing characteristics data the total number of housing
units was estimated, and it was determined whether these housing units were connected
to a public sewer or to a septic system. The U.S. Census Bureau data was also reviewed
to establish the population growth rates and to determine the number of houses in each
city within the watershed as well as the age of the houses. The aerial percentage of each
city comprising the watershed was estimated to determine the proportion of houses on
sewage and septic systems within each sub-basin. Figure 3-12 depicts the distribution of
septic systems in the watershed and Appendix E presents the details of the approach and
assumptions used to derive this distribution.
Figure 3-12: Distribution of Septic Systems in the Study Area
Hale
Clem m
Cuu-tgloundry
Murihern p.
qr- M51k?
Qa-5a
60 - lag
®aaa-250
ISO -200
200-250
goo
250 -300
300-350
0 asa -4a0
400 -500
590-550
Appendix C 3-26
•. ..
ol" MW
•
3.10.1 Failed Septic Systems
Once the number of septic systems for each subbasin was determined, the number of
households with failing septic systems was estimated. According to the U.S. Census
Bureau data cataloging the age of houses, approximately 62% of households in Forsyth
County are more than 20 years old. These aging households are assumed to have the
highest septic system failure rate. Consequently, 62 percent of the septic systems within
each subbasin have the potential of leaking. We estimated the total waste flow produced
by each septic system using an average of 2.3 people living in each house and a flow of
60 gallons per day, per person (USEPA 2002). Also, according to the USEPA, on
average, 1/3 of the daily flow from a failing septic system leaks out into a stream.
Appendix E details the results of this analysis, including the nutrient loads by subbasin
from failing septic systems. The results of this analysis indicate that nutrient loads from
potentially failing septic systems do not constitute a major contribution to nutrient
loadings, however, they were included in the AnnAGNPS modeling scheme.
3.11 Observed Stream flow and Water. Quality Data
a The availability of usable stream flow and water `quality data is essential for the
calibration of the two models. Calibration consists of comparing observed data and
simulated output, and using model-diagnosis tools to show that the models are capable of
reproducing the existing loading conditions and hence can make predictions and answer
"what-if' questions. As discussed in Section 2.3, the two tools used in this study are
pollutant-loading models as compared with in-stream water quality models. This means
that neither model simulates the fate and transport of pollutants within the stream, For
instance, GWLF is exclusively a loading model designed to assess pollutant export loads
within a watershed. Pollutant export loads refers to simulating the load transport to the
edge-of-stream (EOS) without simulating the fate and transport of these loads in the
different reaches. AnnAGNPS is also a pollutant-loading model; however, in
AnnAGNPS the EOS loads are calculated on a much finer scale, referred to in the model
as a land-segment. Ann.AGNPS does have a flow routin r 'it ines however as discussed
in Section 2.3, the pollutant routing is extremely weak and the model strictly outnuts_
pollutant loads at the outlet of the watershed or at reach outlets specified in the input file.
The best way to calibrate these models is to use observed pollutant loads (i.e., flow and
Appendix C 3-27
Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates
concentration values measured simultaneously). Consequently, in this section we first
present the available data used in the model calibrations. We also present other available
water quality data, which were not used in this study. These data would be extremely
valuable for the calibration of specific instream water-quality models, but were unable to
be utilized in this study because there were no corresponding flow data with which to
generate pollutant loads from the measured concentrations.
3.11.1 Stream flow Data Calibration Period Selection
The implementation of hydrologic simulation models such as GWLF and AnnAGNPS is
highly dependent upon an adequate simulation of the resulting runoff, which drives other
simulated variables such as sediment, nitrogen, and phosphorus loads. Analysis of
available USGS stream flow data indicates that no current flow data are available on
streams located within the study area. However, historic flow data exist at three gages
within the study area. Flow data exist at USGS station 02115856, Salem Creek near
4, r
Atwood, from 1975 to 1982. However, due to the considerable recent growth that has
occurred in Forsyth County and the Winston-Salem area, flow data collected in the
1970's and early 1980's are likely not reflective of the current conditions. More recent
flow data exist at two additional USGS gages. Daily flow data are available from
January 1988 to August 1991 at USGS station 02115860 on the mainstem Muddy Creek
near Muddy Creek, NC, and at USG station 02115&OO, on? the South Fork Muddy Creek
near Clemmons NC. These flow observations are the best data to use for the hydrology
calibration of the two models and dictate the simulation period to use for calibration
(January 1988 to August 1991). After the identification of the simulation span for the
calibration, it is necessary to analyze the annual rainfall pattern within this period. In
fact, the intent of watershed-scale models such as GWLF and AnnAGNPS is not to
predict the response of the watershed for a short period of days or weeks, but rather to
simulate the long-term response of the system derived using long-term simulations
spanning several years or more. This long-term annual average response is the indirect
result of the annual rainfall pattern. Consequently, it is important that the selected
simulation period include dry, wet, and average hydrologic years. Table 3-10 shows the
rainfall pattern observed at the Greensboro rainfall station between 1988 and 1991. The
long-term annual average rainfall from the period 1948 to 2004 is 42.3 inches.
Appendix C 3-28
ky,TIMMOM
Consequently, our simulation period includes a below-average dry year (1998), two
average years (1990 and 1991) and an above-average wet year (1989). Coincidentally the
annual average rainfall during the simulation period (42.8 inches) matches the long-term
annual average in the study area (42.3 inches). The analysis of the rainfall pattern at the
three other stations indicates the same pattern depicted in Table 3-10.
Tahlp -3-10: Annual Average Rainfall in the Study Area
i J y,- O a r K HY
1988 35.2
Dry
1989 50.6 Wet
1990 43.5 Average
1991 41.8 Average
Annual Average
1988-1991 42.8 Average
The other constraint is the location of the existing flow data. This is important when
specifying the areas drained at these locations in the model input files. Consequently, for
each model two input files were developed for the flow and pollutant load calibration;
one for the South Fork Muddy Creek drainage basin, and one input file to simulate the
remainder of the watershed as depicted in Figure 3-13.
Appendix C 3-29
Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates
Figure 3-13: Location of USGS Flow Gages within Study Area

USGS02115900
C1SGS02 195860 South Fork Muddy =' .
Muddy Creek nr Creek nr Clem mans, NC
Muddy Creek, NC

3.11.2 Ambient Water Quality Data
The main observation from the assessment of all the ambient water quality data available
in the study area is the scarcity of recent and simultaneous observed flow data and in-
stream concentrations. It is necessary to analyze and use any existing observed flow and
water quality data to develop existing sediment and nutrient loads necessary for the
calibration of the models. The developers of the GWLF and AnnAGNPS models claim
that such models do not usually require calibration. However, we believe that every
model needs some type of verification, to insure that it is capable of reproducing the
watershed response in terms of quantity (runoff) and quality (pollutant loads). This
section presents an analysis of the existing water quality data and proposes an approach
to develop the sediment and nutrient existing-conditions loads.
Although several agencies collected instream sediment and nutrient data in Forsyth
County, the only sets of data that have observations for flow and water quality data with
which to generate observed pollutant loads are from USGS. Before presenting the USGS
Appendix C 3-30
• . • .
•
,,. data and its use in the development of existing-conditions pollutant loads, we briefly
discuss data available from other state and local agencies.
3.11.2.1 North Carolina Division of Water Quality Monitoring Data
The North Carolina Division of Water Quality (DWQ) monitors streams throughout
North Carolina for a variety of chemical parameters. DWQ conducts ambient monitoring
at two stations within the study area. Monitoring station Q2510000 is located on Salem
Creek at the Elledge Wastewater Treatment Plant (WWTP) in Winston-Salem.
Monitoring station Q2600000 is located on the Muddy Creek mainstem at state road
2995, near Muddy Creek NC. However, the data collected by DWQ cannot be used in
this study since no observed flow data were collected during the surveys. These, water
quality data are very valuable for the calibration of in-stream water-quality models, and
to identify violations of North Carolina water quality standards, which is the main
1 '
j mission of DWQ. Additional information regarding the DWQ water quality data is
presented in Appendix F.
3.11.2.2 Forsyth County Water Quality Monitoring.Data
The Forsyth County Environmental Affairs Department (EAD) has developed a
countywide water quality-monitoring program that serves as an informational database to
assess the impact of urban growth and other activities. Beginning in 1996, EAD
contracted with the Environmental Quality Institute (EQI) at the University of North
Carolina-Asheville to perform the laboratory analysis and provide an annual summary for
samples collected by the department at 12 sites throughout the county, including eight
stations located on the streams of concern previously identified in this section. Streams
are monitored eight times `annually with the aim of obtaining equal samples from base
flow (no rain in more than 72 hours) and storm flow (attempting to sample within the first
2 hours of a storm event with greater than 0.1 inch of rainfall) conditions. Water quality
data was collected from September 1996 to June 2002. However, during these surveys,
EAD did not collect stream flow observations, thus these data could not be used to
develop observed pollutant loads. Additional information regarding the EAD data is
presented in Appendix F.
Appendix C 3-31
Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates
3.11.3 USGS Observed Stream flow and Pollutant Loads Data
The USGS ambient water quality data was collected at seven stations on streams in the
study area identified as waters of concern, including three stations on Salem Creek, two
stations on the Muddy Creek mainstem, one station on Silas Creek, and one station on the
South Fork Muddy Creek. Table 3-11 summarizes the existing water quality data as well
as any flow data collected at each respective station. Only three stations specified in
Table 3-11 have observed stream flow as well as sediment and nutrient observed load
data: Muddy Creek near Muddy Creek (USGS 02115860), South Fork Muddy Creek near
Clemmons (USGS 02115900), and Salem Creek near Atwood (USGS 02115856). At
these three locations, the' USGS recorded in-stream sediment, total nitrogen, and total
phosphorus concentrations.
Appendix C 3-32
Winston-Salem • Pollutant Load Estimates I
4.0 Model Application
This section presents and describes the setup and calibration of the GWLF and
AnnAGNPS models, and the pollutant loading estimates generated by these models under
the existing conditions and projected land cover scenarios. The GWLF and AnnAGNPS
models were set up and calibrated for hydrology, as well as sediment, nitrogen, and
phosphorus loadings by comparing model output to observed pollutant loading data.
Pollutant loading estimates were generated for three scenarios; the existing land cover
conditions, projected land cover conditions in the year 2015 in the absence of the
Northern Beltway construction (no-build scenario), and projected land cover conditions
in 2015 with the construction of the beltway extension (build-out scenario).
4.1 GWLF Model
4.1.1 GWLF Input File Generation
The GWLF model requires three input files, including a weather input file (Weather.dat)
a transport input file (Transport.dat), and a nutrient input file (Nutrient.dat). The weather
input file requires daily precipitation data expressed in centimeters, and daily temperature
data expressed in degrees Celsius. The weather input file requires a minimum of 12
months of data, and the data must begin in April and end in March of the following year.
The transport and nutrient input.files require specification of input parameters relating to
hydrology, erosion, and sediment yield. In general, Appendix B of the GWLF technical
guidance manual (Haith et al., 1992) served as the primary source of guidance in
developing input parameters. Runoff curve numbers and USLE erosion factors are
specified as an average value for a given source area. The existing and projected land
cover classifications present in the study area (Sections 3.6 and 3.7) were used to define
model source areas. A total of 16 source areas were defined in modeling the land cover
conditions in the study area. As necessary, GIS analyses were employed to obtain area-
weighted parameter values for each given source area.
Runoff curve numbers were developed for each model source area in the study area based
on values published in the NRCS Technical Release 55 (MRCS, 1986). STATSGO soils
Model Application 4-1
Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates
GIS coverages were analyzed to determine the dominant soil hydrologic groups for each
model source area. Evapotranspiration cover coefficients were developed based on
values provided in the GWLF manual (Haith et al., 1992) for each model source area.
Average watershed monthly evapotranspiration cover coefficients were computed based
on an area-weighted method. Initialization and groundwater hydrology parameters were.
set to default values recommended in the GWLF manual.
USLE factors for soil erodibility (K), length-slope (LS), cover and management (C), and
supporting practice (P) were derived from multiple sources based on data availability.
KLSCP factors were obtained from the NRCS National Resources Inventory (NRI)
database when available for model source areas. Otherwise, average KLSCP values for
model source areas were determined based on GIS analysis of soils and topographic
coverages, and literature review. The rainfall erosivity coefficient was determined from
values given in the GWLF manual. The sediment delivery ratio was computed directly in
the GWLF model interface.
Developed lands include impervious surfaces that are not subject to soil erosion.
However, sediment loads''from developed lands result from the buildup and washoff of
solids deposited on the surface. Therefore, sediment loads from developed lands were
not modeled using the LISLE. ' Instead, sediment loads from developed lands were
computed based on typical loading rates from developed lands (Horner et al., 1994).
Nutrient loads were computed based on land cover, geology, and soils data characterized
in previous sections, as well as groundwater nitrogen, and soil phosphorus values
contained in the `;GWLF manual. Loads were determined by applying a dissolved
coefficient to surface runoff calculations, and by applying a sediment coefficient to the
load from each agricultural source area. Nutrient loads originating from urban sources
were modeled in GWLF as solid-phase, using exponential accumulation and washoff
functions contained in the model. Nutrient loadings resulting from the application of
fertilizer to urban residential areas were accounted for using typical nitrogen and
phosphorus loading rates for developed lands (Reckhow, 1980). Groundwater
Model Application 4-2
?. ...
,. contributions to stream nutrient loads were calculated using dissolved phosphorus
coefficients for shallow groundwater that were obtained from the GWLF manual.
4.1.2 GWLF Hydrology Calibration
GWLF was originally developed as a planning tool for estimating nutrient and sediment
loadings on a watershed basis. Designers of the model intended for it to be implemented
without calibration. Nonetheless, comparisons were made between predicted and
observed stream flow collected in the study area to ensure the general validity of the
model.
Daily stream flow data were available at two stations in the study area from 1988 to
1991; more recent stream flow data were not available for the study area because the
USGS gauging stations at which these data were collected were removed in 1991.
Observed stream flow data collected at USGS stations 02115860 (Muddy Creek near
Muddy Creek, NC) and 02115900 (South Fork Muddy Creek near Clemmons, NC) were
used to calibrate the GWLF model. The groundwater seepage coefficient, baseflow
recession coefficient, and unsaturated zone available water capacity were adjusted using
an iterative approach in order to obtain a best fit with observed data. Figure 4-1 shows
the location of the USGS flow gages within the study area.
y
y,.?;c c
Model Application 4-3
Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates
Figure 4-1: Location of USGS Flow Gages within Study Area

A ,

•s

J -
1
•
.. • 11

Duddy Creek rw
Muddy Creek, NC

•i r t
r.

t,.
1

3

1'

USGS Flow Data N
Winston-Salem Beltway ?
Study Area Streams W ? E
Forsyth County Boundary
YI(
..
Delineated Study Area ?
'Streams
5Ibe m
Model Application 44
JWJ • • i • •
.`. Results of the hydrology calibrations for the South Fork Muddy Creek and Muddy Creek
are presented in Figures 4-2 and 4-3. The stream flow calibration statistics for each
calibration are presented in the figures, and are also presented in Table 4-1. Total flow
volume was over-predicted by approximately 15 percent at the South Fork Muddy Creek
calibration gage, and by approximately 19 percent at the Muddy Creek mainstem
calibration gage. R2 values indicate that GWLF model flow predictions generally
explained approximately 50-60 percent of the variation in observed flows at the USGS
gage stations.
Table 4-1: Hydrology Calibration Statistics for Study Area
?? ??
?B?IO?I
?A ,?,
^g e t+'u h t g .S ?t ?ti U
(" !r t,a i l4' ?4utn''.
South Fork Muddy Creek 1988-1991 0.50 y = 1.1587x
Muddy Creek mainstem 1988 -:1991 0.58 y = 1.1959x
Figure 4-2: Hydrology Calibration Results for South Fork Muddy Creek
30-
" E 25
v y =1.1587x
3 20
0 R2 = 0.50
LL 15
V
d
75
CI) 10
5
0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Observed Flow (cm)
Model Application 4-5
Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates
Figure 4-3: hydrology Calibration Results for Mainstem Muddy Creek
30
E 25-----
Y 1.1 959X
C 20 RZ = 0.58
p? 15
tl? ?
? 10
E
N 5
0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Observed Flow (cm)
4.1.3 GWLF Water Quality Calibration
Comparisons were also made between predicted sediment and nutrient values and
observed water quality data collected in the study area in order to evaluate the ability of
the GWLF model to simulate observed pollutant concentrations. As indicated in Section
3.0, water quality data. collected at USGS stations 02115860 and 02115900 were used in
the water quality calibration in order to generate observed existing conditions pollutant
loads. Comparisons between observed and predicted loadings were developed for
sediment, total nitrogen, and total phosphorus for both the South Fork Muddy Creek and
the Muddy Creek mainstem.
4.1.3.1 Sediment Calibration
In order to develop daily sediment loading estimates using the available data, a regression
equation was developed based on the observed relationship between stream hydrology
and sediment loading (Figure 3-14). This regression equation was applied to the daily
stream flow data collected on the South Fork Muddy Creek and the Muddy Creek
mainstem in order to generate daily sediment loads, based on the observed stream flow.
These results were compared to the GWLF model output in order to evaluate the ability
of GWLF to predict observed sediment loadings.

Model Application 4-6
:. Results of the sediment calibrations for the South Fork Muddy Creek and Muddy Creek
. are presented in Figures 4-4 and 4-5. The calibration statistics for each canbvrVaa ono e e
presented in the figures, and are also presented in Table 4-2. Total calibration gage,
predicted by approximately 22 percent at the South Fork Muddy Creek
and under-predicted by approximately 58 percent at the Muddy Creek mainstem
calibration gage. R2 values indicate that GWLF model sediment predictions generally the
ex lained approximately 60 percent of the variation in sediment loading observed at
p
USGS gage stations.
Table 4-2: Sediment Calibration Statistics for Study Area
L?'?H r? ?.A? k??dw.

77? ^?5 4y1 ihM %? 't jll r?'?/Iln{f. A. .'SF kb.. ,•' .r. .. .. y - 1 .2/+45x
0.59
1988-1991
South Fork Muddy Creek
0.58 y = 0.4178x
Muddy Creek mainstem 1988 -1991
Figure 4-4: Sediment Calibration Results for South Fork Muddy Creek
10000
c
0
E
c 1000
c
d
E
N 100
V
E
N
Modei Application
)00
4-7
1(
10 100 ""
Observed Sediment (tons/month)
,Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates
Figure 4-5: Sediment Calibration Results for Mainstem Muddy Creek
,..100000
0 y = 0.4178x
a 10000 RZ = 0.58
c
v
c
m 1000
E
?0,00 10
? •
100
_E
M 10
10 100 1000 10000 100000
Observed Sediment (tons/month)
4.1.3.2 Total Nitrogen Calibration
Similar to the approach used to develop daily sediment loading estimates, a regression
equation was developed based on the observed_ relationship between stream hydrology
and total nitrogen loading (Figure 3-15). This regression equation was applied to the
daily stream flow data collected on the South Fork Muddy Creek and the Muddy Creek
mainstem in order to generate daily total nitrogen loads, based on the observed stream
flow. These results were compared to the, GWLF model output in order to. evaluate the
ability of GWLF to predict observed nitrogen loadings.
Results of the total nitrogen calibrations for the South Fork Muddy Creek and Muddy
Creek are presented in Figures 4-6 and 4-7. The calibration statistics for each calibration
are presented in &'figures, and are also presented in Table 4-3. Total nitrogen was over-
predicted by approximately 28 percent at the South Fork Muddy Creek calibration gage,
and by approximately 35 percent at the Muddy Creek mainstem calibration gage. RZ
values indicate that GWLF model total nitrogen predictions generally explained
approximately 55-65 percent of the variation in nitrogen loading observed at the USGS
gage stations.
Model Application 4-8
ky molmrsms • C - •

Table 4-3: Total Nitrogen Calibration Statistics for Study Area

GVE'LF;Simulation "
SJmulatl0n Jerl6d R2 Cpzrelrition

Value'
Re"gresslbn Equatlo}?'
South Fork Muddy Creek 1988-1991 0.54 y = 1.2836x
Muddy Creek mainstem 1988-1991 0.63 y = 1.3479x
Figure 4-6: Total Nitrogen Calibration Results for South Fork Muddy Creek

70
t
c 60
E y = 1. 28 3 6x
50 W = 0 .5 4
0

r 40
m
a
2 30
z •
'
S 20
'15 4 0 w 4 1,? ? I I
E 10
rn

0-
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Observed Nitrogen (tons/month)

300
L
w
o
250-

9
.
i y =1.3 47 9x
w 200 Re = 0.6 3

c

150

a 100

w ?

50- - -
E
r •
0
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
Observed Nitrogen (tons/month)
Figure 4-7: Total Nitrogen Calibration Results for Mainstem Muddy Creek
Model Application
4-9
Winston-Salein Northern Beltway Pollutant Load E=stimates
4.1.3.3 Total Phosphorus Calibration
Similar to the approach used to develop the daily sediment and nitrogen loading
estimates, a regression equation was developed based on the observed relationship
between stream hydrology and total phosphorus loading (Figure 3-16). This regression
equation was then applied to the daily stream flow data collected on the South Fork
Muddy Creek and the Muddy Creek mainstem in order to generate daily total phosphorus
loads, based on the observed stream flow. These results are compared to the GWLF
model output in order to evaluate the ability of GWLF to predict observed phosphorus
loadings.
Results of the total phosphorus calibrations for the South Fork Muddy Creek and Muddy
Creek are presented in Figures 4-8 and 4-9. The calibration statistics for each calibration
are presented in the figures, and are also presented in Table 4-4. Total phosphorus was
over-predicted by approximately 22 percent at the South Fork Muddy Creek calibration
gage, and by approximately 11 percent at the Muddy Creek mainstem calibration gage.
RZ values indicate that GWLF model total phosphorus predictions generally explained
approximately 50 percent of the variation in phosphorus loading observed at the USGS
gage stations.
Table 4-4: Total Phosphorus Calibration Statistics for Study Area
Model Application 4-10
Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates]

Figure 4-8: Total Phosphorus Calibration Results for South Fork Muddy Creek
16
c
E 14
c 12
Y =1.2184x
10 W= 0.51
P 000
8
a
41 .1
t 6
a
4-
2--
E
w 0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16
Observed Phosphorus (tons/month)
Figure 4-9: Total Phosphorus Calibration. Results for Mainstem Muddy Creek
t 60-
0
E 50
c y=1.1154x
40 Fe=0.52
N
7
t 30 .0 00-r
?$a
a 20
m
10
E
co 0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Observed Phosphorus (tons/month)
Model Application
4-11
Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates)
4.2 GWLF Model Pollutant Loading Estimates
4.2.1 GWLF Existing Conditions Scenario
The calibrated GWLF model was used to estimate sediment, nitrogen, and phosphorus
loadings from each source area in the study area under the existing watershed conditions.
Based on the 10-year simulation period from 1988 to 1998, average annual sediment,
nitrogen, and phosphorus loads were computed for each land source in the watershed.
These results are presented in Table 4-5.
Table 4-5: Average Annual Pollutant Loads from Land Sources in Study Area under
Existing Conditions

v Nitr"ben
y,
,attJf? d1. %, ?t(l? a ;'?;t f
Waterbodies 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Unconsolidated Sediment 34.5 519 0.5 0.7,
Deciduous Forest 0.8 12,011 25.0 17.2
Evergreen Forest 0.8 1,078 2.2 1.5
Mixed Forest 0.8 647 1.3 0.9
Managed Herbaceous Cover 3.4 319526 340.1 69.8
Cultivated 33.3 18,715 37.3 27.9
Unmanaged Herbaceous
Upland 3.4 887 9.0 1.7
Bottomland
Forest/Hardwood Swamps ° 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Low-Intensity Developed 0.5 2,633 67.5 12.3
High-Intensity Developed. 1.1 4,840 112.6 17.2
Sediment loading rates for each GWLF modeling source area (i.e., land cover type) are
also presented in Table 4-5. These values fall within the established ranges for sediment
loadings rates that have been published in the literature, indicating that the GWLF model
produced reasonable sediment loading estimates. The sediment loading rates presented in
Table 4-5 generally remained constant across modeling scenarios (the existing conditions
scenario and the projected land cover scenarios presented below); differences in sediment
and nutrient loads were related to changing land cover distributions and increased
development. Nitrogen and phosphorus loading rates were calculated internally in the
GWLF model, with the model output expressed as the particulate and soluble nutrient
loads (summed together to generate the total nutrient loads presented in Table 4-5).
Model Application 4-12
Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates
The pollutant loading results were summarized into more general land cover categories
(Table 4-6) to facilitate comparison between the GLWF model results and those of the
AnnAGNPS model. As indicated in Table 4-6, pasture and cropland are the predominant
sources of sediment loading in the study area, pasture and high-intensity developed land
are the predominant sources of nitrogen loading, and pasture and cropland are the
predominant sources of phosphorus loading in the study area.
Table 4-6: Summarized Average Annual Pollutant Loads from Land Sources under
Existing Conditions
i'ir rrl:an Code

?re r'.' M.. `oa.
77
rl l3' ` N L ®a?t,?»ad

(toi

S%':.'
Forest 13,736 28.6 19.7
Pasture 32,413 349.1 71.5
Cropland 18,715 37.3 27.9
Low-Intensity Developed 2,633 67.5 12.3
Hi -Intensi Developed 4,840 112.6 17.2
Water/Wetlands 0.0 0.0 0.0
Other 519 0.5 0.7
Total 72,856 596 149
4.2.2 GWLF Projections for the No-Build Scenario
The calibrated GWLF model was used to estimate sediment, nitrogen, and phosphorus
loadings from each source area in the study area under the projected no-build scenario.
This scenario used land cover projections for the year 2015, and was used to estimate
land cover changes and the subsequent changes in pollutant loading in the absence of
Winston-Salem Northern Beltway extension construction. Additional details regarding
the projected no-build scenario are provided in Section 3.7 and Appendix C. The same
10-year simulation period was used in order to directly compare results from the no-build
scenario to the existing conditions results. Average annual sediment, nitrogen, and
phosphorus loads were computed for each land source area in the watershed, and are
presented in Table 4-7. As indicated by Table 4-7, sediment, nitrogen, and phosphorus
loads from high-intensity and developed lands increased under the projected no-build
scenario as compared to the existing conditions scenario, while pollutant loadings from
pasture, forest, and cropland decreased.
Model Application 4-13
Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates
Table 4-7: Average Annual Pollutant Loads from Land Sources under Projected No-Build
Ccenarin '
Generalized Land'Cover;; ,Seth ept ad Nitrogen Load Phoi p h16fIW, Load .

Type.
(tian??ylr)
?ta?i/yr)
enslyr) ,
(t
Forest 9,887 20.4 14.2
Pasture 25,069 266.6 55.0
Cropland 18,339 36.3 27.3
Low-Intensity Developed 8,267 210.4 38.4
High-Intensity Developed 7,860 182.5 27.9
Water/Wetlands 0.0 0.0 0.0
Other 508 0.5 0.7
Total 69,930 717 164
4.2.3 GWLF Projected Build-Out Scenario
The calibrated GWLF model was also used to estimate sediment, nitrogen, and
phosphorus loadings from each source area in the study area under the projected build-
out scenario. This scenario used land cover projections for the year 2015, and was used
to estimate land cover changes and the subsequent changes in pollutant loading resulting
from construction of the Winston-Salem Northern Beltway extension. Additional details
regarding the projected build-out scenario are provided in Section 3.7 and Appendix C.
The same 10-year simulation period was used in order to directly compare results from
the build-out scenario to the existing conditions and no-build scenario results. Average
annual sediment, nitrogen, and phosphorus loads were computed for each land source
area in the watershed, and Fare presented' in Table 4-8. As indicated by Table 4-8,
sediment, nitrogen, and phosphorus loads from high-intensity and developed lands
increased under the projected build-out scenario as compared to the existing conditions
and no-build scenarios, while pollutant loadings from pasture and forest decreased.
Table 4-8: Average Annuall Pollutant Loads from Land Sources under Projected Build-out
Scenario
Model Application 4-14
(Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates
4.2.4 GWLF Northern Beltway Pollutant Loading Summary
Figure 4-10 summarizes the estimated sediment, total nitrogen, and total phosphorus
loadings estimated by GWLF under the existing conditions, as well as the no-build and
build-out projected scenarios. As indicated in Figure 4-10, land-based sediment loadings
decreased from the existing conditions to the no-build and build-out scenarios. This was
due to the projected conversion of pasture, cropland, and forested areas to impervious
surfaces. However, it is important to note that loading models such as GWLF only
calculate sediment loading from land-based sources, and are not able to quantify in-
.
channel erosion. An increase in developed areas such as predicted under the no-build and
build-out scenarios would likely increase stormwater flows, and consequently increase
in-channel sediment loading. Nitrogen and phosphorus loading increased under the no-
build and build-out scenarios as compared to the existing conditions; this was likely due
to loading from fertilizer which is typically applied to residential lands.
The no-build and build-out projected scenarios were similar, with the exception of
commercial and residential development that was predicted to occur adjacent to beltway
interchanges under the build-out scenario. The differences in pollutant loadings under
these scenarios are attributed to the additional development projected to occur around the
beltway interchanges in the build-out scenario. Under the build-out scenario, predicted
sediment loadings remained almost unchanged (a slight decrease of 0.4%), while nitrogen
and phosphorus loadings increased by 115 tons/year (13.8%) and 14 tons/year (7.9%),
respectively, as compared to the no-build scenario.
Model Application 4-15
Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates
Figure 4-10: Summary of Results for GWLF Modeling Scenarios
900 > 74,000
800 TP ,
73,000 V
1
M 700 x R. 4
N 600 + 1, ? TSS ro; 72,000 N
0
?' ?"
0 500
{ w ,h 71,000
y 400 A
rfi;, C
C 300 70,000
200 69,000
°
Z 100
i t.
0 68,000
Existing No-build Build-out
Conditions Scenario Scenario
4.3 AnnAGNPS Model
4.3.1 Calibration Strategy
Prior to describing the different steps implemented for the creation of the AnnAGNPS
input file and the implementation of the model, it is necessary to assess the existing data
in light of the AnnAGNPS in-stream limitations and derive a sound and robust modeling
approach to generate pollutant loads for the study area.
As discussed in Section 3.11.1, the only streamflow stations with adequate. data for
calibration are located at the outlets of the South Fork Muddy Creek and Muddy Creek
mainstem watersheds. Section 2.3.2 discussed a primary restriction when using
AnnAGNPS, which is that the model routes all surface runoff and associated chemicals
through the watershed in a single day. Thus, any in-stream applications should be limited
to watersheds where the time of travel is one day or less. On the other hand, this 24-hour
travel time restriction does not curtail AnnAGNPS ability to simulate the quality and
quantity of runoff from each land Cover category regardless of the time of travel in the
receiving stream. An analysis of travel times in the study watershed indicates that only
the South Fork Muddy Creek station (USGS 02115900) has a travel time of less than 24-
Model Application 4-16
Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates
.:. hour, and thus can be used in the hydrologic calibration for this study. Travel times at the
different subbasin outlets in the study watershed are depicted in Table 4-9.
Table 4-9: Travel Times in the Study Watershed Subbasins
' Refers to stations with observed data that potentially can be used for this study (Section 3.11.3)

Basin b)ys@r4ect'Ijlgita``
Station1:' ; Drainage
Area acres Trivel Tl rie
ours
Muddy Creek USGS 02115860 39,228 63.3
Mill Creek none 20,856 32.7
Silas/ Little Creek none 12,491 12.0
Salem Creek USGS 02115856 44,591 45.1
South Fork USGS 02115900 28,552 21.1
'Table 4-9 indicates that the stream flow data at station USGS 02115900 has a travel time
of less than 24 hours, and hence, can be used to calibrate the surface runoff (quantity and
quality). This observation of the travel time drove the strategy for the calibration of
hydrology and water quality at the South Fork Muddy Creek station, and hence the entire
watershed. Below the key steps used in the implementation of the AnnAGNPS
calibration, and its application to the whole watershed, are briefly discussed.
4.3.1.1 Comparison of Simulated and Observed Runoff at the South Fork Muddy
Creek USGS Station
Since the travel time at this station is less than 24 hours, the observed and simulated
runoffs were compared while making the necessary parameter adjustments to produce a
robust and acceptable hydrology calibration. Prior to this exercise the observed stream
flow at the South Fork Muddy Creek station was separated into base flow and runoff
components, and only the runoff component was compared to the simulated AnnAGNPS
runoff.
4.3.1.2 Assurance that Edge-of-Stream (EOS) Loads were within Published
Literature Values
Prior to the calibration of sediment and nutrient loads at the South Fork Muddy Creek
station, steps were taken to insure the EOS loads generated by the AnnAGNPS model
were within the established literature values. When using a watershed model such
AnnAGNPS, it is necessary to verify that the EOS loads are within acceptable values and
that the model is performing adequately prior to comparing the simulated and observed
pollutant loads.
Model Application 4-17
Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates
4.3.1.3 Calibration of the Transported Pollutant Loads at the South Fork Muddy
Creek USGS Station
The second component of the water quality calibration consists of comparing the
transported (delivered) pollutant loads generated by AnnAGNPS to the observed
pollutants loads presented in Appendix G. This was the final model calibration at the
South Fork Muddy Creek USGS station, and resulted in the estimation of existing-
conditions pollutant loads for the subbasin.
4.3.1.4 Application of the South Fork Subbasin Parameterization to the Entire
Study Area
Following the calibration of the runoff and pollutant exports at the South Fork Muddy
Creek USGS station, the calibrated parameters were then applied to the entire study
watershed to generate pollutant export loads under the existing conditions scenario. This
was followed by the generation of pollutant loads for the no-build and build-out
scenarios.
The following section describes the development of the AnnAGNPS input file and all the
required data analysis and processing. The subsequent sections present the results of the
hydrologic and water quality"calibrations, as well as the results of the existing conditions,
no-build, and build-out scenarios.
4.3.2 Input File. Generation
In this section the major steps performed in the development of the AnnAGNPS input file
are presented. AnnAGNPS is a lumped parameter model, where spatial variation within
a land-segment (cell) is ignored and the dominant attributes within the cell are used to
describe the cell >characteristics. In other words, a model-cell has a single soil type, land
cover category, runoff.curve number, slope, and other soils characteristics necessary for
the simulation of sediment exports. Overall, four types of data are required to run the
AnnAGNPS model; topographic, soil, land-use, and climate data. These data can be
prepared and organized using the tools and/or models provided in the AnnAGNPS
modeling package.
The input data set for AnnAGNPS Model consists of 33 sections of data, comprising 400
separate input parameters necessary for model execution which are repeated for each cell,
Model Application 4-18
:
MMMISM MIN :-
soil type, land cover types, and channel reach. These data can be prepared and organized
using the tools and/or models provided in the AnnAGNPS package, which consists of
several programs and sub-programs embedded within an ArcView GIS platform.
Additional information regarding these processing tools is provided in Section 2.2.3 and
Appendix A. Prior to presenting the results of the hydrology and water quality
calibrations, the approach used to mimic the nutrient applications rates (fertilizers on
urban areas, and manure on pasture) is presented.
4.3.3 Nutrient Applications in AnnAGNPS
One of the limitations in using the AnnAGNPS model in urban areas is the incorporation
of nutrient application rates in the input file. In fact, AnnAGNPS has such capabilities but
it is applicable only for cropland areas when simulating the growth sequence of a
particular crop. AnnAGNPS does have the capability of simulating a "non-crop" land
cover, however, the model does not permit the application of fertilizers on this type of
land cover.
To circumvent this limitation, the contractor's modeling team developed a modeling
approach that allows the simulation of nutrient application in urban and pasture areas.
This approach consists of simulating urban and pasture areas as cropland, allowing the
use of the fertilizer operation embedded within AnnAGNPS. Consequently, pasture and
urban land covers are simulated as cropland using limited AnnAGNPS-operations
(growing a crop, applying fertilizer, and killing the crop), which are permitted when
using a cropland cell - and limiting these operations to a window of just a few days. This
modeling strategy was submitted to Fred Theurer, one of the AnnAGNPS original
developers, for comments and he enthusiastically accepted this novel approach (Fred
Theurer 2005).
This modeling approach was applied to urban areas using an annual nitrogen application
rate of 50 pounds per acre and a phosphorus application rate of 15 pounds acre. These
application rates are the results of urban studies and modeling simulations approach used
at the Chesapeake Bay Office in Annapolis Maryland (Gary Schenk 2005). The manure
application rates used in the model are presented in Appendix D. As previously
Model Application 4-19
Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates
discussed, fertilizer and manure application rates were applied in urban areas using the
urban and pasture areas as AnnAGNPS cropland cells. It should be noted that the
AnnAGNPS model permits only fertilizer application on the land surface and does not
allow any fertilizer incorporation depth.
4.3.4 AnnAGNPS Hydrology Calibration
AnnAGNPS simulates runoff from each land-segment and its routing though the
watersheds' reaches. The existing observed USGS flow data is comprised of both base
flow and surface runoff flow, while the AnnAGNPS model simulates only surface runoff
flow. Therefore, it was necessary to separate the base flow component from the USGS
observed flow in order to make meaningful comparisons between the simulated and
observed runoffs. Flow separation was performed using the Hydrograph Separation
Program (HYSEP) developed by the USGS (Sloto, 1996). HYSEP separates a streamflow
hydrograph into base-flow and surface-runoff components. The base-flow component has
traditionally been associated with ground-water discharge and the surface-runoff
component with precipitation that enters the stream as overland runoff. The streamflow
separation was applied to the observed flow data collected at the South Fork Muddy
Creek USGS station (02115900)..
The hydrology calibration consisted of adjusting AnnAGNPS input variables such as the
curve numbers:,-unfit a good agreement between observed and simulated runoff flows was
reached:: Monthly and , annual flows were compared to assess the robustness of the
calib ration. Table 4-10 depicts the annual simulated and observed flows at the South Fork
Muddy Creek USGS station. Table 4-10 indicates that the model reasonably reproduces
the annual average „long-term hydrologic response in the South Fork Muddy Creek
watershed. The annual average simulated flow during the period of 1988 to 1991 is 96
percent of the observed runoff flow. The comparison of monthly and observed flows
was performed using similar statistics to those used in the calibration of the GWLF
model. Figure 4-11 depicts the results statistically and indicates that when comparing the
monthly results AnnAGNPS reproduces the overall observed runoff flow (y= 1.005x),
with a satisfactory RZ of 0.74.
Model Application 4-20
Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates
Table 4-10: Annual Simulated and Observed Flows in South Fork Muddy Creek
eor Sij#algt'ed Flow
acre=fe+?t :. Observed Flow'
acre-feet Ratio Simulated/Observed
1988 5,595 5,149 1.09
1989 22,457 24680 0.91
1990 18,611 23,830 0.78
1991 17,395 16,570 1.05
Annual Ave. 16,015 17,557 0.958
Figure 4-11: AnnAGNPS Hydrology Calibration Results for South Fork Muddy Creek
100000
y = 1.0058x
Rs = 0.7389
9 10000 01
0
1000
000 0044 P.
to •
.00
100
•
10
10 100 1000 10000 100000
Observed Runoff (acre-ft)
Model Applicatlon 4-21
jWinston-Salem Northern Beltway PDllutant Load Estimates'I
4.3.5 AnnAGNPS Sediment Calibration
The AnnAGNPS sediment calibration followed similar steps to those used in the
hydrology calibration, i.e., comparing the annual observed and simulated sediment loads
as well as comparing the monthly transported sediment loads. The only additional
verification performed during the sediment calibration was to insure that the sediment
loads (erosion rates or EOS loads) transported from each land cover type to the river
reaches were within acceptable published values. As a guideline, published literature
values of expected erosion rates (Donigian, 2003) were used. Table 4-11 depicts the
results of the simulated erosion rates in the South Fork Muddy Creek watershed as they
compared to the published values.
Table 4-11 : Simulated Erosion Rates by Land Cover Type in the South Fork Muddy Creek
Watershed
+d f ki 7Ci 4,Y ° ra v t1o''J'4
lyea,i 8N,?
d? ' {{rlJ v,; , .
b
8 W FF
H

g4

Forested 0.05' 0.4 0.213 0.635 ` 0.680 0.10
Pasture 0.3-1.5 1.31 0.014 3.180 0.59
Low-Intensity Developed' 0.2-1.0, 1.01 0.738 1.298 0.17
High-Intensity Developed' 0.2 -1.0 0.72 0.510 0.957 0.15
1 Donigian (2003) included only one category of urban land cover
The typical erosion rates presented in Table 4-11 were used as calibration guidelines to
insure that the simulated erosion rates.were within acceptable published values. This was
the first step in the calibration of sediment loads in the South Fork Muddy Creek
watershed. The second step consisted of comparing the simulated transported sediment
loads to the existing-conditions observed loads developed and presented in Section 3.12.1
and Appendix G. Table 4-12 depicts the annual average sediment results and indicates
that the AnnAGNPS model overestimated the annual average transported loads by
approximately 25 percent. Similar observations can be inferred from the depiction of the
monthly observed and simulated loads shown in Figure 4-12. Simulated sediment rates
for all land cover types were within published literature values, and have an acceptable
R2 of 0.44 when compared to observed rates. However, as mentioned in Section 4.2.1,
the implementation of the modeling scenarios will compare the erosion rates rather then
Model Application 4-22
Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates

the transported loads, due to the AnnAGNPS reach-routing limitation which is applicable
only to streams with travel times of less than 24 hours. In addition, comparing the erosion
rates will help compare the results from AnnAGNPS and GWLF, as GWLF only
simulates erosion rates from different land cover types.
Table 4-12: Annual Simulated and Observed Sediment Loads in South Fork Muddy Creek
ear Siri tila?ed Sediment
I,dad (tQn) ObserveQ'Sedi?iieilif;
Lgads,(tohj) Ratio
Slmulated/bp9erved
1988 3,127 988 3.16
1989 11,620 11,160 1.04
1990 8,695 11,705 0.74
1991 17,524 8,643 2.03
Annual Average 1 8,124 1.74
/0 2 (/ /

V'
Model Application
f:o'46

4-23
Figure 4-12: AnnAGNPS Sediment Calibration Results for South Fork Muddy Creek
Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates
k?s
4.3.6 AnnAGNPS Total Nitrogen Calibration
The total nitrogen calibration follows similar steps to those used in the sediment
calibration, i.e., comparing the nitrogen export rates from each land cover type using
published literature values, then insuring that the annual and monthly simulated nitrogen
loads are comparable to the observed loads (Table 4-13, Figure 4-13). As a guideline for
the nutrient export rates, published and widely used literature values were used
(Reckhow, 1980). Simulated nitrogen rates for all land cover types were within published
literature values and have an acceptable R2 of 0.43 compared to observed rates.
Table 4-13: Simulated Nitrogen Loading Rates by Land Cover Type in the South Fork
Mudd, r Creek Watershed
,? r T '+ I'Values* ?,•
Males (16/acre)
e
t
d Nit
l
o
,, fi >? acre n
r
e
g
mu
a
1
«<<<
`
q
Forested 2.54 1.22-5.6 1.32 0.11 7.6 0.94
Pasture 7.70 1.30-27.5 10.83 4.42 27.06 3.10
Low-Intensity Developed 8.9 1.30-34.2 12.89 9.36 18.37 1.64
High-Intensity Developed 8,797 1.30-34.2 19.19 13.79 29.75 2.09
* Reckhow, 198U.
Figure 4-13: AnnAGNPS Nitrogen Calibration Results for South Fork Muddy Creek
100000-
U) y=1.0159X
Y R2
= 0.4329 • • 06
U)
V •
80000 •
i •
C •
tM
b
z •
'Z1000
E
c 100
2 100 1000 10000 100000
Monthly Observed Nitrogen Loads (kgs)
Model Application
4-24
Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates
4.3.7 AnnAGNPS Phosphorus Calibration
The total nitrogen calibration follows similar steps to those used in the sediment
calibration. i.e., comparing the nitrogen export rates from each land cover type using
published literature values, then insuring that the annual and monthly simulated nitrogen
loads are comparable to the observed loads (Table 4-14, Figure 4-14). Simulated
phosphorous rates for all land cover types were within published literature values, and
have an acceptable RZ of 0.56 when compared to observed rates. As a guideline for the
nutrient export rates, published and widely used literature values were used (Reckhow,
1980).
Table 4-14: Simulated Phosphorus Loading Rates by Land Cover Type in the South Fork
Muddy Creek Watershed
Ak 1 1. ; 1? .... 1 •" '? ,(T:

Sv r r l 9
1 4?+ ti 4 4

d 7 - ?1t

1 Y'
0'i?
RNA d 1 11 '4 'I t ?LL }:.

?'?, ?1
0
Forested 0.21 0.17-0.74 1.06 0.60 2.55 0.11
Pasture 1.33 0.12-4.4 2.36 1.32 3.53 0.31
Low-Intensity Developed 1.70 0.17-5.54 2.47 1.84 2.97 0.22
High-Intensity Developed 1.70 0.17-5.54. 2.60 2.05 3.17 0.25
* Reckhow, 1980.
Model Application 4-25
Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates
n
Figure 4-14: AnnAGNPS Phosphorus Calibration Results for South Fork Muddy Creek
100000
H
o?
Y
v
N
0

P
10000
O

CL
H
O

t
CL
1000
0

E
rn

100

100 100A 10000 100000
Monthly Observed Phosphorus Loads (kgs)
4.4 AnnAGNPS Model Pollutant Loading Estimates
4.4.1 AnnAGNPS Existing Conditions Scenario
Similar to the implementation of the GWLF model, the calibrated AnnAGNPS model
ry was used to estimate sediment, nitrogen, and phosphorus loadings from each source area
" in the study area under the existing watershed conditions. Based on the 10-year
a?
" simulation period from 1988 to 1998, average annual sediment, nitrogen, and phosphorus
loads were computed for each land source in the watershed. Table 4-15 depicts the
results of the AnnAGNPS existing conditions pollutant loads for the study area.

y = 1.0209x
R2 = 0.5561

Model Application 4-26
Table 4-15: Average Annual Pollutant Loads from Land Sources under Projected Existing
Conditions
Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates
As indicated in Table 4-15, pasture and forested lands are the predominant sources of
sediment loading in the study area, pasture and high-intensity developed lands are the
predominant sources of nitrogen loading in the study area, and pasture and forested lands
are the predominant sources of phosphorus loading in the study area. Table 4-15 also
presents the total loads derived using the GWLF model, indicting that the total sediment
and phosphorus loads are comparable. However, the total nitrogen load derived from
AnnAGNPS (392 tons/year) is much lower than the one simulated by GWLF (596
tons/year).
Although the sediment loading rates from the two models are comparable, they show a
different load distribution between land cover types. The differences in, the distribution
of sediment loads between the two models are depicted in Table 4-16, expressed as unit
loading rates (pound per acre per land cover category). It shows that AnnAGNPS
simulates much higher sediment rates from developed areas than the GWLF model. In
fact, AnnAGNPS' rates from low-intensity developed areas are as much as 5 times higher
than those from GWLF. AnnAGNPS rates from the high-intensity developed areas are
almost double the rates of GWLF. These differences in the distribution of loads in urban
areas may have affected the prediction of sediment loads under the no-build and build-out
scenarios.
Table 4-16: AnnAGNPS and GWLF Annual Sediment and Nutrient Loading Unit-Rates
models. Table 4-16 shows that AnnAGNPS phosphorus rates for forested land are double
the loading rates produced by GWLF. In contrast, AnnAGNPS generates lower
phosphorus loading rates than GWLF for pasture and urban areas.
Model Application 4-27
Similar discrepancies exist for phosphorous distribution loads derived using the two
Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates
The lower AnnAGNPS nitrogen loads are caused by AnnAGNPS unit rates that are much
lower than GVWLF for pasture and urban areas. There is almost a 9 lb/acre difference in
the pasture nitrogen rates between the two models, and pastureland covers approximately
25 percent of the study area.
Such differences in loading rates should be expected when comparing the results from a
fully distributed model that divides the watershed into distinct homogeneous land parcels,
and a lumped model that utilizes a unique loading rate from each land cover category. All
the loading rates derived from AnnAGNPS and GWLF are within accepted literature
values. However, the key distinction between the loading rates presented in Table 4-16 is
that the rates derived from AnnAGNPS consist of an average derived from 1,459 land-
segments, as compared to GWLF, which has a single default rate for each land cover
type. This distinction makes AnnAGNPS more useful for detailed spatial analyses and
assessing local management issues. The other advantage derived from using AnnAGNPS
is that the input and output files are embedded within an ArcView platform enabling a
quick and efficient spatial analysis. The creation of thematic GIS-based maps that
describe any output from the model is a valuable tool that provides a snapshot of the
conditions in the watershed. Figure 4-15 shows is an example of such a thematic map,
showng the nitrogen 'loads to the different reaches from each land-segment under the
existing conditions scenario. The 'following sections present the results of the
AnnAGNPS no-build and build-out scenarios.
Model Application 4-28

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Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates]

4.4.2 AnnAGNPS Projected No-Build Scenario
The calibrated AnnAGNPS model estimates the sediment, nitrogen, and phosphorus
loadings from each source area in the study area under the projected 2015 no-build
scenario. This scenario uses land cover projections for the year 2015 and the resulting
changes in land cover and pollutant loading in the absence of Winston-Salem Northern
Beltway extension construction. The same 10-year simulation period is used in order to
have a meaningful comparison of the prediction from the no-build scenario to the existing
conditions scenario. Average annual sediment, nitrogen, and phosphorus loads derived
for each land source area in the watershed are presented in Table 4-17. As indicated by
Table 4-17, sediment nitrogen, and phosphorus increase under the no-build scenario.
There is a 12 percent increase in the phosphorous loads (113 tons/year compared to 127
tons/year) between the existing-conditions and the no-build scenario, respectively.
Figure 4-16 shows the nitrogen loads to different reaches from each land segment under
the no-build scenario.
Table 4-17: Average Annual Pollutant Loads from Land Sources under the No-Build
Scenario

WOW" W

Forest 11,000 44 39
Pasture 30,130 142 30
Low-Intensity Developed 37,150 206 41
High-Intensity Developed,- 15,500 134 17
No-Build Scenario Totals 93,780 ` 526 127
Existing Conditions Totals 83,750, 392 113

Model Application 4-30
Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates
4.4.3 AnnAGNPS Projected Build-Out Scenario
The objective of the build-out scenario was to assess the potential changes in land cover
and pollutant loading in 2015 resulting from the construction of the Northern Beltway.
The no-build scenario predicted the sediment and nutrient loads due to projected changes
in land cover by the year 2015 in the absence of the beltway construction (Figure 4-16).
The difference in loads between the no-build and build-out scenarios gives the
incremental change in loads that is due to the construction of the Northern Beltway
Extension. Table 4-18 presents the estimates from the build-out scenario and indicates
that sediment loads increased by 2 percent under the build-out scenario as compared to
the no-build scenario. On the other hand, phosphorus and nitrogen loads increased by 6
and 23 percent, respectively, as compared to the no-build scenario. Figure 4-17 shows
the nitrogen loads to different reaches from each land segment under the build-out
scenario.
Table 4-18: Average Annual Pollutant Loads from Land Sources under the Buffd-Out
Scenario

Forest 14,364 37 27
Pasture 26,583 101 28
Low-Intensity Developed 37,419,1 294 50
Hi -Intensi Develo ed 17,569'. - .' 213 30
Build-out Scenario Totals 95,935. 645 135
No-Build Scenario Totals 93,780 526 127
'r
Model Applicatlon 4-32
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Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates
4.5 Summary Comparison of GWLF and AnnAGNPS
The previous sections presented the results from the application of the two models. Table
4-19 summarizes key components related to the resources needed for the implementation
of both the GWLF and AnnAGNPS models.
Table 4-19: Summary Comparison of GWLF and AnnAGNPS Models
'77
dtiSld'e?i?;Q»
Effort for input data preparation Low Extremely High
Data requirement Low Extremely High
Computer time required Low High
Model documentation Good Fair
Flexibility of schematization None High
Modeling skills required Low High
Model and computer program availability ° Good Good
Continuous refinement by the corresponding
agency/developer Yes Yes

Model Application 4-34
Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates
5.0 Summary and Discussion of Results
Section 4.0 presented the implementation of the two models used to derive pollutant
loads under the existing conditions and projected scenarios. The objective of the existing
conditions scenario was to reproduce the existing loading conditions in the watershed, the
objective of the no-build scenario was to derive loading projections in 2015 assuming
that the Northern Beltway is not be constructed, and the objective of the build-out
scenario was to estimate pollutant loading resulting from construction of the Winston-
Salem Northern Beltway extension. In this section, we summarize and discuss the results
of the three scenarios predicted by the two models. The main goal is not to attempt to
select or recommend a specific model, but rather give a quantitative and qualitative
assessment of the results. The advantage and disadvantages of the two models were
previously discussed in Section 2.0.
5.1 Projected Land Cover Distributions
The results from the respective modeling scenarios were dependent upon the
corresponding projected land cover distributions. The approach used to derive the future
land cover distributions was technically sound and combined key information from the
Cumulative and Indirect Impact Assessment study conducted for the Winston-Salem
Northern Beltway project, as well as the Forsyth County Growth Management Plan that
was developed by the Winston-Salem/Forsyth County City-County Planning Board in
2001 as part of its comprehensive Legacy Plan. Information from these studies was
further analyzed and used to modify specific land-use cells in the AnnAGNPS simulated
distribution to better reflect current projections of future land cover. Table 5-1 presents
the projected land cover distribution used in the GWLF and AnnAGNPS models to
simulate the different scenarios. Figures illustrating difference in land cover between the
existing condition, no-build and build-out scenarios appear in Section 3.7.
Discussion of Results 5-1
Winston-Salern Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Es#imates
Table 5-1: Projected Land-Use Distributions under the Three Modeling Scenarios
•. * I *b? V A ko t N ?
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Forest 94,486 73,838 59,900
Pasture 35,490 25,635 19,962
Low-Intensity Urban 7,707 33,113 44,897
High-Intensity Urban 9,235 13,336 21,158
Watershed Totals 145,918 145,922 145,917
The trends in land cover changes shown in Table 5-1 are representative of typical growth
and development, where pasture and forested areas "shift" to urbanized lands.
5.2 Summary of Results
This section summarizes the results of the build-out and no-build scenarios, producing
the changes in pollutant loads that may potentially result from the construction of the
Northern Beltway Extension.
Table 5-2: Summa of Results No-Build and Build-Out Scenarios
'aIS4?Fst?e"YE?v?iSL? A a.:;. _.;? „?. ?r ?r?i„ .:ri?V`" ; k •`. ..?,i
Build-out Scenario 95,935 69,622 645 832 135 178
No-Build Scenario 931780 69,930 526 717 127 164
+29155 ' ---308 +119 +115 +8 +14
Difference (+2.3%) (-0.4%/W'.' (+22.6%) (+16%) (+6.8%) (+8.5%)
When comparing the total pollutant loadings, as shown in Table 5-2, the two models
show an overall, increase ; in nutrient loads as development increases. However,
AnnAGNPS predicted an `increase in sediment loadings while GWLF predicted a slight
decrease. As discussed in Section 4.0, the distributions of these changes between land
cover types vary and may be different when analyzing a specific subbasin in the
watershed, which may not match overall watershed trends.
The percent differences in loadings from the two models, shown in Table 5-2, are
relatively low and within the acceptable uncertainties and errors associated with such
models. It is important to note that the foundation of these results was somewhat limited
Discussion of Results 5-2
Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates
data. These data were used to the best extent possible; however, they implied a level of
uncertainty associated with the results presented in this study. In addition, any water
quality, watershed, or simple screening model reproducing the existing observation with
observed error rates of 10-20 percent is generally accepted in the scientific community as
a solid and robust model that can be used to answer "what if questions" and implement
management scenarios. In other words, the summary shown in Table 5-2 strongly
suggests that total sediment and nutrient loads are not expected to change drastically, less
then 20 percent, in the study area under 2015 land cover projections. Therefore, a change
in the distribution of these loads is predicted, but the overall quantity will may be similar
to what is being observed today. What may change in the study area under the no-build
and build-out scenarios is the hydrologic response, resulting from an increase in storm
water runoff caused by more impervious lands replacing pasture and forested areas.
However, the volume of runoff increase may be alleviated by the implementation of
sound pollution control options and best management practices in the study area.
Discussion of Results 5-3
Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates
soil and crop data, field operations, and feedlots must be obtained from various resource
databases that need to be populated and are provided within the AnnAGNPS package.
TOPAGNPS first processes the input DEM to remove depressions and flat areas to
eliminate indefinite down-slope drainages (Martz and Garbrecht, 1998, 1999). In fact,
very flat areas can be problematic in any digital terrain model. The automated watershed
segmentation and parameterization is based on overland flow. TOPAGNPS uses the
common D8 method (Fairchild and Leymarie, 1991) to detd'rtnine the direction of
overland flow at each cell of a DEM. The D8 method comparosahe elevation of each grid
cell against the elevations of its eight adjacent neighbors, and a syJngle flow direction is
assigned along the steepest down-slope path. The surface dramagey pattern defined by
these overland flow directions allows for the derivation of, the upstream drainage area or
flow accumulation for each cell. The-main watershed boundary is determin?d from flow
direction data. Once this boundary is determined, then"drainage network for the basin
under study is derived (Martz and G1992). The ,:dainage network is defined
y " r? e __X X
through three steps. Initially, ? a continuous, dral??etwork i9rdelineated by selecting all
cells with a drainage r?,,exceeding M4,us r Specif i ' critical source area (CSA).
sr'k yrn ,yM1
Secondly, pruning 1f?rlie ne " k is perfoied to eliminate links shorter than a user
specified threshold, th mim source chancel"length (MSCL). Thirdly, the channel
h , of, 1957) stream-ordering system. Once the
links are or ed{.uu?sing t 1? 6h1%f
$?"v.1? 3i. Jn?j p w
drainage, network i eate e contributing areas for the source nodes of exterior
lm1&;"` iad the contnbut areas ?*.'both left and right banks of all channel links are
identified
L
The critical sourc;?r?ea ;(eSA) and the minimum source channel length (MSCL) are the
important parameter`in the TOPAGNPS program and are associated with landscape
segmentation and continuous drainage, network generation. These two parameters drive
the final simulated land use distribution since AnnAGNPS is a spatially distributed model
that divides a watershed into sub-areas (cells) based on topographic characteristics so that
the modeled cells homogeneously represents the characteristics of each cell. In fact,
during the GIS overlay of the derived cells and drainage network, TOPAGNPS assigns
the dominant land use category and soil type within each cell. Consequently, several
Appendix A 2

iterations were implemented by manipulating the user-defined parameters CSA and
MSCL. The key objective of these runs was to reproduce as closely as possible the
existing land use distribution in the watershed while keeping the total number of cells
within acceptable computational constraints. Figure A-1 depicts the final segmentation
of the study area used in the AnnAGNPS simulations and the assigned land use type to
each model-cell.
i
t ,
Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates
After the GIS overlay (intersection) of the land-use and soil data, the AnnAGNPS
Areview interface generates two master files one for the reaches and one for the cells.
The two files are then imported into the AnnAGNPS input editor to create the main
component of the input file.
A.2 AnnAGNPS Arc View Interface Processing Steps
1) Process DEM: The Process DEM function automates the watershed-delineation
procedures to determine the approximate stream network, subwatershed, and watershed
outlet (Figure A-2). The user specifies the number of cells required to initiate a stream.
To determine the approximate stream network, subwatersheds, and watershed outlet, the
process DEM menu function proceeds through a''series of steps, as s Fill Sinks,
Flow Direction, Flow Accumulation, Stream Db` tion, Stream Segmen Qt6(Links),
Sub-watershed definition, and Outlets. When the rrr?bcess is finished, the filIDEM,
sa
FlowDir, FlowAcc, StreamGrd, LinkGrrd, WatshdGrd, i}'n* Outlets themes will be added
into the view. L. ni.
2) Delineate Watershed: er the conio,1?0 ion of Process DEM function, the
'tl is S,
Delineate Watersheds rocedur ' used to d" eate the watershed boundary from a user
x.14 t? tl,
defined outlet point. ece that the ou point be placed directly on the raster
:, the watershed to be delineated correctly.
th
channv d,br
el network,,stre
When 1L.1y?j7{`'process lete subbwatershed theme will be added into view (Figure
3) Ann AGNPIi ut Data 1, 1 reparation, Specify Watershed Outlet: The first thing to be
4) Create and Execute TOPAGNPS Files: The next step in the AnnAGNPS input data
preparation is the generation of two TOPAGNPS format ASCII files; DEDNM.inp, and
determined in the `.?.' • ; . PS input data preparation step is the location of the outlet
raster at the downst??am end of the watershed (Figure A-4). This process will calculate
the number of rows and columns for DEDNM.exe program's control file, DNMCNT.inp.
The row and column number of the outlet will be displayed on the ArcView window.
This information is needed in the DNMCNT.inp file while executing DEDNM.exe.
Appendix A 4
Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates
DNMCNT.inp. After generating the TOPAGNPS input files, the user is instructed to
execute TOPAGNPS, which consists of running the DEDNM, Raspro, and Rasfor
programs. The DEDNM (Digital Elevation Drainage Network Model) program performs
several functions, including pre-processing the elevation data, performing hydrographic
watershed segmentation, defining the drainage network, watershed, and subwatershed
boundaries, and tabulating input parameters. The RASPRO (Raster Properties) program
derives additional spatial topographic information and parameters from the basic raster
datasets produced by the DEDNM program. The RASFOR (Rgister Formatting) program
is a raster reformatting utility.
5) Execute AGFLOW: The next step in the Ann AGPS input date preparation is the
execution of the AGFLOW program. The A00FLOW model uses oit`' iit, files from
t
TOPAGNPS as input to generate input parameters poxcessai 'for the AnnAGNPS model.
TOPAGNPS model output is expressed as raster datal,6'6prds which contain information
on particular geographic features, such#gt? type, elevahc'land,use, and field slope.
AGFLOW is a FORTRAN program. ThA, GIF am generates five output files;
two files containing iqf&' 01 on cell an zpach paratiieters that are imported into the
AnnAGNPS input<eit,.one fileltntaining int?to the VBFLOWNET program, one file
containing summary infW tick t? delin ed model subareas, and one log file for
the executi6 of l GFL program "The key output from AGFLOW are the two
461
files Gaining the NPS ?i l's cell and reach parameters that are imported into
the input b'tor to create t,AnnAGNPS input file sections related to the cell and reach
data.
h
6) Import TOPAGI''?ArWiew Files: This process will import selected TOPAGNPS
*arc files to ArcView. This process will generate the grid themes (netful, subwta, bound,
ntgcod, and netw), then convert `subwta' and `bound' to shapefiles. When the process is
completed, the subwta.shp and bound.shp shapefiles will be added into the view. The
subwta shapefile represents the AnnAGNPS model cells.
7) Intersect AnnAGNPS Cells with Soils Data: In this step the AnnAGNPS model cells
are intersected with existing soils data to obtain a shapefile with new polygons and the
Appendix A 5
Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates
subwatersheds GridCode and the key soil identification field associated with each
polygon. The program will process and identify the dominant soils data classification for
each AnnAGNPS model cell. After the intersection process is complete, a new theme
named Inter soil.shp will be created by the intersection process (Figure A-5).
8) Intersect AnnAGNPS Cells with Land Cover Data: Similar to the soils intersection, in
this step the AnnAGNPS model cells are intersected with existing land cover data to
obtain a shapefile with new polygons and the subwatersheds Grikode and the key land
cover identification field associated with each polygon. Thb-program will process and
identify the dominant land cover classification for each AnnAt'r1PS model cell. After
the intersection process is complete, a new theme named-Inter lulc.sl p will be created by
the intersection process (Figure A-6).
9) Extract Cell and Reach Data: The final step in the AnAGNPS data input preparation
is to extract the cell and reach 4?.k via the generation of the ann cell.dbf and
ann reach.dbf files. These files can be,'direel ',?;,jmported into' the AnnAGNPS input file
using the AnnAGNPS input editor, andont` aIlM' e cell and reach information
{? y Ypy? X4?y..l...
needed for the AnnAG'§W1"0Ctt file.
x
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Appendix A 6
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FiLure A-4: AnnAGNPS Input Data Preparation Steps
A-5: AnnAGNPS Model Cells and Soils Intersection

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10

Estimates:
•. Load
Winston-Salem Northern Beltway
Figure A-6: AnnAGNPS Model Cells and Land Cover Intersection

i ?-
i
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I

Appendix A I I

Ri ^
Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates
A.3 AnnAGNPS ArMew Interface Output: Input Parameters for
Cells and Reaches
The key output from the interface is two files summarizing all the input parameters for all
the cells and reaches. These two files are then imported into the input editor to create the
input files for the study area. Table A-1 shows the reach file input and Table A-2 shows
the cell file input. The data shown in Table A-1 and Table A-2 is described below:
Each raster's flow vector slope was used to calculate the raster's LS-factor prior to
determining its respective cell's average LS-factor.
?t
Each raster along its respective cell's hydraylicaXly mos d start path used the
A?
raster's flow vector slope to calculate tlh 'cell?s TC profile ?s?,gment slope &
lengths.
al 1
Each raster's terrain slope was used to
slope.
Orphan raster code:
F: me s that
respective cell's average land
raster(s) are involved for this cell ID
s) make up this cell.
ID is made up of reassigned channel raster(s)
did not previously have any rasters that were
source, right-, or leftside cells.
Appendix A 12
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Figure B-11: Stream Regressions for South Fork Muddy Creek Subbasin
y = o.4assX'?072
0.4466262 South Fork Muddy Creek Depth Regression
8
5
=4 ??
a
03
e
02
1
0
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000
Drainage Area
y ¦ 0.1636x
R2
B
7
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5000 10000 15000 20000 25000
Downstream Drainage Area (acres)
70
60
50
S 40
v 30
3 20
10
0
Mill Creek Width Regression
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000
Downstream Drainage Area
,y? rye R
r'.
Appendix B
Y = 2.1282xase2s
South Fork MuddyCreek Width Regression
W=0.6728
70
60

50
=40
r
30
3 20

10
0
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000
Drainage Area (acres)
Figure B-12: Stream Regressions for Mill Creek SubbAkh,
y ¦ 4.0679x".242
o aru MIII Creek Depth Regressions
¦ 0.6582 R' ' 0'5U6
11

106
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Width from River Left to Right (ft)
Figure B-14: Cross Section of Silas Creek 2

105
100
95
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102
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Appendix B 12

10 20 30 40 . 50 80 70 80
Width from River Left to Right (ft)
ETTITMOMIN.-Mrarm, • • •
Figure B-16: Cross Section of Silas Creek 4

106

100

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Appendix B 13
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Width from River Left to Right (ft)
Figure B-20: Cross Section of Silas Creek 8
of Silf t'iEreek 9

Appendix B 14

10 20 30 40 50 80 70 80 90
Width from River Left to Right (ft)
10 20 30 40 50 80 70 80 90
Width from River Left to Right (ft)
Figure B-22: Cross Section of Silas Creek 10

x

102
T -V-1771

98

98
94

92

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88

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20 30 40 50 80 70
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Width from River Left to Right (R)
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Figure B-26: Cross Section of Salem Creek 1

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Appendix B 16
20 40 80 80 100 120
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kTjTj
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Figure B-28: Cross Section of Salem Creek 4
105
100
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9o
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104
102
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98
s?
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94
92
90
88
88
0
Appendix B
17
10 20 30 40 50 . 80 70 80 90
Width from River Left to Right (ft)
Cross Sec .-,f Sale ek7
20 40 80 80 100 120 140 180
Width from River Left to Right (ft)

Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load
Figure B-31: Cross Section of Salem Creek 8

104
102

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98
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100
98
98
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88
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0 10 20 30 40 50 80 70 80 90 100
Width from River Left to Right (ft)
Fi2udAr33: Cross SectlA',bf Salem?'reek 10
104
102
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98
98
94
92
90
88
88
0

Appendix B 18
20 40 80 80 100 120
Width from River Leftto Right (ft)

Winston-Salem Northern POHILItant Load Estimates
Figure B-34: Cross Section of Salem Creek 11
X71
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Figure B-35: Cross Section of Salem Creek 12
102
100
98
g 96
94
92
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88
88
0

Appendix B 19
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Width from River Left to Right (ft)
. If
Cross Sectio Salemreek 13
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Width from River Left to Right (ft)
Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates
Figure B-121: Cross Section of Mill Creek 2

105

100
7 i

95

9o

85
77

80
0 10 20 30 40 50 80 70 80
Width from River Left to Right (ft)

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Cross 5ec'o?laof Mill creek 4

Appendix B 48
10 20 30 40 50 80 70 80 90
Width from River Left to Right (ft)

• • i • •
Figure B-124: Cross Section of Mill Creek 5
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Appendix B
49
10 20 30 40 50 80 70 80
Width from Rlwr Left to Right (ft)
Cross Sectu'of Mil meek 7

104
102

100
98

96

94
92

90

88
86
0 10 20 30' 40 60 60 70
Width from River Left to Right (ft)

Figure B-128: Cross Section of Mill Creek 14

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50
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102
100
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102
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Appendix B
Width from River Left to Right (ft)
Cross Sectidgf Mill Creek 18
av
51
10 20 30 40 av 60
Width from River Left to Right (ft)
Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates
Figure B-133: Cross Section of Mill Creek 19
102

100

98
4
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Appendix B 52
Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates
Appendix C: Projected Land Cover Development
This appendix presents the details of the land cover projections and includes two tables.
Table C-1 depicts the land cover changes from the existing conditions scenario to the no-
build scenario. Table C-2 shows the land cover changes from the no-build scenario to the
build-out scenario. The land cover analyses are based on assessipg the changes within
each of the AnnAGNPS model cells. The tables list only ,Ahe AnnAGNPS cells where
there is a projected land cover change. To illustrate this ;"?Tigure 61depicts the existing
conditions land cover for the AnnAGNPS cells chose the future Dell Facility.
C-1: AnnAGNPS Cells in the Vicinity if the
P+N FOWNW
Based on th l d cover a tlysis, under the no-build scenario cells 5473 and 5472 will
,
:;., s
shift from pasturel13q; lc?v-intensity developed (Table C-1), and will shift from ow-
intensity developed to high-intensity developed under the build-out scenario (Table C-2).
However, cells 5471 and 5492 will shift from pasture to high intensity developed under
the no-build scenario (Table C-1) and are not mentioned in Table C-2, since the highway
construction will not dictate the construction of the Dell Facility.
Appendix C U-1

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Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimate
Appendix D: Nutrient Loading From Livestock
Table D-1: Estimated Nitrogen (1) and Phosphorous (P) Production and Manure
Application Rates for each Subbasin.
2 130 1620.1 17964.4 10873.2 11.09 6.71
3 114 928.0 15852.0 9594.6 17.08 10.34
4 89 1264.2 12317.9 7455.6 9.74 5.90
5 155 1275.6 21562.3 13050.9 16.90 10
6 64 965.8 8924.5 5401:7 .9.24 5.59
59
8 104 1843.6 14400.4 8.1.6.1' 781 4.73
10 53 236.9 7353.9 A451".0 31:U4 18.79
11 73 919.7 10137.6 6135.9 11.02' 6.67
12 129 1701.9 17931.1 0853.1;: 10.54 6.38
13 68 783.6 9495.4 `1' : 47 2`. ' 12.12 7.33
14 157 1301.7 21830.0 13 16.77 10.15
15 38 392.0 581.7 31&° . 13.47 8.16
16 88 740.0 1 4$?6 7413.6&', ; 16.55 10.02
17 77 1139.7 107 8:4 6493.5 9.41 5.70
19 32 430.0 449%,',4 10.46 6.33
20 90 89 . 124137 7 13.89 8.41
21 98 95 s± :-., 13555.2x;' 8204':4 14.11 8.54
22 42 360.6 %" 5884.3 3561.5 16.32 9.88
23 106 1.158.1 ,
14637.0 ?. ° 8859.2 12.64 7.65
24 138 2.34.1 , r
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25 82 53 6860.0 21.28 12.88
26 6 794.Q-','J,:, 3652.9 2210.9 4.60 2.78
27 62 559.4 M=.,8575.8 5190.6 15.33 9.28
28' 27 8'8 44.9 2266.7 96.46 58.38
30 :.191 10 S 3 ` 26432.3 15998.5 25.78 15.60
31 '242 293' 33627.5 20353.5 11.46 6.94
32 6,, 1751 869.6 526.4 4.97 3.01
33 182 1352.9 25300.3 15313.4 18.70 11.32
34 103 1244.8 14305.7 8658.7 11.49 6.96
35 338 2653.3 46814.0 28334.8 17.64 10.68
36 56 517.6 7747.6 4689.3 14.97 9.06
37 48 775.4 6697.8 4053.9 8.64 5.23
38 189 2618.3 26270.8 15900.7 10.03 6.07
39 103 1431.5 14234.5 8615.6 9.94 6.02
40 76 832.6 10499.2 6354.8 12.61 7.63
41 88 1353.3 12266.6 7424.5 9.06 5.49
42 18 91.1 2535.6 1534.7 27.84 16.85
44 107 1069.6 14847.7 8986.8 13.88 8.40
Appendix D
11111111111111115ne

Appendix E: Septic System Estimates
E.1 Septic System Estimates
The number of households in the City of Winston-Salem that are potentially connected to
a sewer system was determined using the projected number of households on sewage
systems in Forsyth County. In 2003, 88,811 out of a total of 133,072 households in
Forsyth County were identified as being connected to a sewer system. Since the City of
Winston-Salem contains approximately 82,593 households,.,4ll households in the City
were assumed to be connected to the sewer system. Tbe' reng 6,218 houses in
Forsyth County connected to sewer were assumed tee, be. located- -j' towns adjacent to
Winston-Salem. The number of households on;: sewage systems wi14 each city was
estimated based on their proximity to Winston Salem (Table E-1). The retfming 4,749
households within the watershed were assumed to'.iYge septic tanks as their method of
waste disposal. The septic tanks wereestimated to be lpq?ated in the towns outside of
Winston-Salem, was dependent on the nt} it1Yg£:iouseholdseach town. Each town is
situated within either one or two subbass (Tp916M1)r Depending on the number of
subbasins per town, tb, ",,i" ?olds conne}tied to septic tanks were evenly distributed
ift'N he pree locations d`fthe households were not available.
within these areas s
Table E-1:1Op census a an c mank Estimates for Forsyth County an
4 *M'
Portion q? e ,sin i"rshe d.
v
Forsyth Co. 60,x.+; 133,072 88,811 43 600

City of
Winston
1850 6
82,593
1.00
82,593
82,593
0
Salem
Lewisville
8 826
3,501
0.30
1,050
210
840
Clemmons 13,827 5,614 0.50 2,807 2,386 421
Bethania 354 148 1.00 148 148 0
Tobaccoville 2,209 944 0.60 566 3 563
Rural Hall 2,464 1,160 0.85 986 4 982
Walkertown 4 009 1,793 0.80 1,434 287 1,148
Kemersville 17,126 7,950 0.50 3,975 3,180 795
Total 234.591 103,703 93,560 88 811 4 749
Appendix E
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Appendix F: Stream Flow and Water Quality Data
F.1 Stream Flow Data
Analysis of available USGS stream flow data indicated that no
available on streams located within the study area. However, b
collected at three gages within the study area. Flow data were col
02115856, Salem Creek near Atwood, from 1975 to 1982.
considerable recent growth that has occurred in Forsyth Co;fiy a
area, flow data collected in the 1970's and early 1980' e hkeI
current conditions. More recent flow data were colle:Oed"'at two a
Flow data were collected from 1988 to 1991 at UGS station 0211
Muddy Creek near Muddy Creek, NC, and at & 7statio ,2115
Muddy Creek near Clemmons, NC. Daily mean f1Abt. a collet
these stations are plotted in Figure F=" ,,,,The location of VSGS
p°
study area is presented in Figure F-2.r
Figure F-1: Daily Mean

flow
t flow data were
flow data were
at USGS station
ver, due to the
Winston-Salem
reflective of the
the mainstem
j.„outh Fork
1988-1991 at
;es within the

Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates
Figure F-2: Location of USGS Flow Gages within Study Area
r , a ,. - , y x,,l" -b
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' U3GS Fl Data N
Winston-Salem Beltway
Study Area Streams E
Forsyth County Boundary
Del Ineated Study Area S
/",\/ treanns
• a 0 41, IYllba¦

Appendix F 2
• Mkimm mm - • •
-, Appendix G: Observed Pollutant Loads
G.1 South Fork Muddy Creek

Feb-88 1104.0 124.6 5.4
7 1.63
Mar-88 834.0 56.7 4.1 1.23
Apr-88 794.0 55.0 3.9 1.18
Ma -88 973.0 131.2 4.8 14,44
Jun-88 445.9 18.7 2.2 `:66w
Jul-88 383.7 18.5 1.9 0.57
Aug-88 394.3 29.2 1.9 0.58
Sep-88 711.6 66.1 3.5
Oct-88 640.0 58.4 3.1
Nov-88 1303.0 391.0 6.4`
Dec-88 662.0 38.9 3'3 0.98
Jan-89 964.0 85.0 44 7 1.43
Feb-89 2456.0 1410.0 3.64
Mar-89 3837.0 2022.2' 5.68
Apr-89 1580.0 223.7 7.8 2.34
May-89 2371.0 864.0 11.7 A b, 3.51
Jun-89 1509.0 291 .1 7.4 .23
Jul-89 1114.0 185.9 'Y 1.65
Aug-89 1548.0 486.3 2.29
Sep-89 2050.0 771.9 - v' 0 1 3.03.
Oct-89 4027.0 00., 4.3 _F," 19.8 s' 5.96
Nov-89 1601.Q ,0 {-7.9 2.37
Dec-89 2005 ;°`' 5 1 11.9.9 2.97
Jan-90 3617.0 'N
1Z% 3
ft
'#7.8
5.35
Feb-90 4549.0 "22.4 6.73
Mar-90 3.1 a?Q >; 9.6 2.89
Apr-90 .-z 192 '.4. ;, 7 9.5 2.86
Ma 2615.0 "
.
6;, , 12.9 3.87
Jun= ':';. 1265.0 136.8&r," 6.2 1.87
Jul-90 815.0 N-w 65.0'.' 4.0 1.21
Aug-90 ?j, •831.0 69.0 4.1 1.23
Sep-90 '449. 0 50.5 2.9 0.89
Oct-90 5 Oft 6170.8 25.5 7.69
Nov-90 202.4 6.7 2.01
Dec-90 1974. s° 477.3 9.7 2.92
Jan-91 3256.0 1150.0 16.0 4.82
Feb-91 1168.0 116.3 5.7 1.73
Mar-91 4402.0 3431.6 21.6 6.52
Apr-91 3062.0 1491.3 15.1 4.53
May-91 3529.0 2164.5 17.4 5.22
Jun-91 1371.0 175.4 6.7 2.03
Jul-91 836.0 63.9 4.1 1.24
Aug-91 688.0 50.1 3.4 1.02
Se -91 497.0 24.2 2.4 0.74

Appendix G
Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates)
G.2 Malnstem Muddy Creek
Feb-89 4957.0 2091.9 4.4
! 7.34
Mar-88 4159.0 1167.9 20.4 6.16
Apr-88 4085.0 1194.9 20.1 6.05
May-88 3715.0 1044.1 18.3 5.50
Jun-88 2819.0 621.9 13.9 4.17
Jul-88 2638.0 610.0 13.0 3.90
Aug-88 3022.0 1045.9 14.9 4.47
Sep-88 3828.0 1404.7 18.8 5:67
Oct-88 3652.0 2030.4 18.0 5.41
Nov-88 4861.0 4244.7 23.9 7.20
Dec-88 2345.0 407.1 11.5 347
Jan-89 4539.0 1511.9 22.3 6`72;,<.
Feb-89 8955.0 12297.2 44.0 13.25:'-
Mar-89 13051.0 18709.2 64.2 19.32
Apr-89 6572.0 3296.7 32.3 9.73
May-89 13039.0 20926.0 64:1 19.30
Jun-89 8282.0 6487.2 40.7 12.26
Jul-89 5551.0 2495 .4 27.3 8.22
Aug-89 7111.0 4556.4 35.0 =10.53
Sep-89 8154.0 8361.8 12.07
Oct-89 16252.0 58479.7 24.06
Nov-89 5353.0 °;2745.8 26.3 7.92
Dec-89 7581.0 37.3 11.22
Jan-90 1264, 140$7.1 62.2 18.71
Feb-90 14382 j 19??-15.0 "x70.7 21.29
Mar-90 8444.0 ?d41 ,,`41.5 12.50
Apr-90 ? . , 'l 4 37.1 37.1 11.18
May-90,,+ ; ; y 13295 ' ; 1 ` 50.8 65.4 19.68
Jun- 3850.0 .'-,. 1025 8 ?;> 18.9 5.70
Jut=90r? 3564.0 ru, 1057.1 ` 17.5 5.28
Aug-90 ,,.3859.0 1199.7 19.0 5.71
Sep-90 98.0 879.6 14.7 4.44
Oct-90 ,.0 79397.0 110.3 33.22
Nov-90 598 3415.7 29.4 8.85
Dec-90 9580.x;.''' 8622.4 47.1 14.18
Jan-91 12329.0 14481.1 60.6 18.25
Feb-91 5274.0 1981.0 25.9 7.81
Mar-91 17661.0 _ 55917.4 86.8 26.14
Apr-91 11891.0 18601.7 58.5 17.60
May-91 11745.0 20820.1 57.7 17.38
Jun-91 5279.0 2309.3 26.0 7.81
Jul-91 4424.0 1289.0 21.8 6.55
Aug-91 5171.0 2022.1 25.4 7.65
Sep-91 3390.0 796.6 16.7 5.02
Appendix G
• •
F.2 USGS Water Quality Monitoring Data
Ambient water quality data was obtained from the USGS, which collected water quality
data at seven stations on streams identified as waters of concern, including three stations
on Salem Creek, two stations on the Muddy Creek mainstem, one station on Silas Creek,
and one station on the South Fork Muddy Creek. Mean, minimum, and maximum total
suspended solids, total phosphorus, and nitrate + nitrite concentrations are summarized in
Table F-1. The available USGS water quality data were the data used to calibrate the
water quality components of the AnnAGNPS and GWLF models.
Table F-1: Summary of USGS Water Quality Data

Muddy Creek at NC 65 at Bethama, hz"
NC „ x
4988-149
n ?:.
9
107
264
Silas Creek near Clemmons, NC 19F3`1989 9 1 143 750
Total
Suspended Salem Creek at SR2657 at Quthrie,
NC 1988X $ 9 3 112 357
Solids Salem Creek near Atwood N 1977-197' ?R 26 8 595 2520
(mg/L) Salem Creek near Mudd Cree _. NC 1191" --198, 9" 8 13 94 440
Mudd Creek now .Muddy Cree N,CY, 19 ";-.: 89 37 5 317 1430
South Fork . near
ClemC gek n

1977-1989

35

4

532

3310
Muddy re NC at Bethama,
NC
. 1988-1989 9 0.02 0.13 0.28
O
j1°' ear M? ons; 1988-1989 9 0.02 0.12 0.29
Total

Phosphe alem Cr SR2 t Guthrie,
-.
C 1988-1989 9 0.02 0.12 0.30
s (mg/L em Creek n twood, NC 1977-1979 26 NA NA NA
P04) Creek ne udd Creek, NC 1988-1989 8 0.02 1.53 3.00
Mu reek n Mudd Creek NC 1970-1989 37 0.33 0.96 2.00

y Creek near
South
Clemmon
PP,

1977-1989

35

0.04

0.33

1.20
Muddy C ek at NC 65 at Bethania,
NC 1988-1989 9 0.20 0.40 0.60
Silas Creek near Clemmons, NC 1988-1989 9 0.30 0.88 2.60
Nitrate + Salem Creek at SR2657 at Guthrie,
NC 1988-1989 9 0.40 0.54 0.80
Nitrite Salem Creek near Atwood, NC 1977-1979 26 NA NA NA
(mom) Salem Creek near Mudd Creek, NC 1988-1989 8 0.40 2.85 7.50
Mudd Creek near Mudd Creek, NC 1970-1989 0.10 1.46 3.80
South Fork Muddy Creek near
Clemmons, NC 1977-1989 ff35 0.50 0.93 2.60
Appendix F 3
F.3 North Carolina Division of Water Quality Moniti
The North Carolina Division of Water Quality (DWQ) monitors stj
North Carolina for a variety of chemical parameters. DWQ conducts ar,
at two stations within the study area. Monitoring station Q2510000 is
Creek at the Elledge Wastewater Treatment Plant (WWTP) in
Monitoring station Q2600000 is located on the Muddy Creek mains-
2995, near Muddy Creek NC. Data on total suspended solids,,, total
nitrate + nitrite concentrations were collected at both stat}o6, and
gene
Figures F-3 to F-5. Total suspended solids concentrations' wqr
w ,.
stations but were elevated on several occasions, ? articular'ly tiin
(Q2600000). Observed total phosphorus and 41 ate' + nitrate cd
typically higher in Muddy Creek (Q2600000)k" an in Salem Creek (I
location of the monitoring stations is presented in F16resF=6.
Figure F-3: Total Suspended Solids Cort x Hons at Monitoring Stations
250
200
pv 150
'O .
100
N
b
F
50
0
1/1/1998 5/18/1999 9/27/2000 2/9/2002
Date

Data
hroughout
nonitoring
on Salem
at state road
sphorus , and
present ed in
low at both
sddy C reek.
rations were
6`0060). The

a ?.

Figure F-4: Total Phosphorus Concentrations at
Figure F-S: Nitrate +
Appendix F

{

s-
l

G^
i

,
i
33 i

li
i
'Ff
3?

Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant LoRc
Figure F-6: Location of DWQ Water Quality Monitoring Stations
.,e I
44, 1
I if M" j

:a
r
1 T.,
J,
y *.
A'.
14A t'A'
DWQ Water Quality Stations N
Winston-ftlern Beltway
Study Area Streams W E
Forsyth Coup Boundary
Delineated Study Area S
beams
a 0 9 Mies
F i .
6
Appendix F
?. •
LTITHM

F.4 Forsyth County Water Quality Monitoring Data
The Forsyth County Environmental Affairs Department (EAD) has developed a county-
wide water quality monitoring program that serves as an informational database from
which the impact of urban growth and other activities can be assessed. Beginning in
1996, EAD contracted with the Environmental Quality Institute (EQI) at the University
of North Carolina-Asheville to perform the laboratory analysis and provide an annual
summary for samples collected by the department at 12 sites throughout the county,
including 8 stations located on the streams of concern piously identified in this
section. Streams are monitored eight times annually wigk" im of obtaining equal
samples from base flow (no rain in more than 72 hours) ,and stort#Jlow (attempting to
sample within the first 2 hours of a storm event Vvith greater than 0 ri :inch of rainfall)
conditions. Water quality data collected ftojp,Septeiri"r 1996 to 16e, 2002 are
summarized in Table F-2. The data indicate that ,"osphorus and nitrate nitrogen
concentrations were similar under b*; storm and baso
total suspended solids concentrations wry dated during si
of the streams of concern.
Appendix F
conditions, but that mean
conditions in most
7
Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates
Table F-2: Summary of Forsyth County Water Quality Data from 1996 to 2002
SF Muddy 26 0 12 28 19 2 61 252
Crk
Lower 26 2 27 370 19 1 82 474
Mudd Crk
Total Salem Crk 26 3 15 57 19 2 64 211
Suspended Silas Crk 27 0 2 12 21 1 83 290
Solids Upper
27
0
6
38
21
0
38
268
(mg/L) Mudd Crk
Kerners 27 2 13 68 -
2j', 3 52 149
Mill Crk .
Little Crk 27 0 9 86 21 1 227 952
Mill Crk 27 0 5 20::.-., 21 2. 81 412
SF Muddy 26 0.15 0.37 0.89 19 0.1 4 0.46 0.91
Crk
Lower
26
0.41
3.5 4 "
9 81
x,19
0.38
2.59
6.40
Mudd Crk
Salem Crk 26 0.58 5.43 1O:a 19 0.36 3.54 10.10
Total Silas Crk 27 0.43 0.27 0.58 21 0.11 0.48 1.61
Phosphorus
(mg/L P04)
Upper
27
0.16
''Uy41J
1.07 x
? „,.-
0.12
0.46
1.54
Mudd. Crk , r

Kerners
27
0.13
?0 29„
-?'4; ,K .
y;•.21
0.17
0.43
0.96
Mill Crk
Little Crk F,PF 0.14 0.58 21 0.20 0.89 3.90
Mill Crk 27 "O 0.22 0.2 0.86 21 0.18 0.70 2.47
SF Mudd y ql&26 0.20 0 88" c'''1.20
' 19 0.50 1.09 1.50
Crk
Lo r...
6.75
19
1.20
2.25
3.70

` y"'Salem Crk '1 ?26 ?J 0.90 4.06 8.50 19 1.20 2.91 4.90
Nitrated

l Silas Crk
Nift 7
a
0.50
1.00
21
0.10
0.80
1.70
Nitrog6
er 04
X
(mg/L) f' 0.10 0.70 2.40 21 0.20 0.72 1.80
Crk
Kea `

''
0.40
0.79
1.40
21
0.60
1.06
2.00
Mill
Little C&`{'z; 27 0.20 0.64 1.20 21 0.80 1.27 2.40
Mill Crk ? ?' 27 0.30 0.83 1.90 21 0.30 1.00 1.70
Appendix F
Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimates
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edition.
Bingner, R. L., F.D. Theurer, R.G.Cronshey, R.W.Darden. 2001. AGNPS 2001 Web Site.
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References R-1
Winston-Salem Northern Beltway Pollutant Load Estimate
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Theurer, F. Personal communication, April 22 2005.
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U.S. Department of Agriculture, Natural Resources Conservation Service (MRCS). 2000.
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References R-2