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HomeMy WebLinkAbout01 - Avon - AppD-Littoral Process APPENDIX D LITTORAL PROCESSES Avon Village Beach Nourishment Project Dare County, North Carolina Prepared for: Dare County Board of Commissioners Bob Woodard, Chairman 954 Marshall C Collins Drive, Manteo NC 27954 Prepared by: PO Box 8056, Columbia SC 29202 –8056 [2525–JULY 2021] — THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK — Coastal Science & Engineering Littoral Processes [2525–Appendix D] Avon Village, Dare County, North Carolina iii TABLE OF CONTENTS TABLE OF CONTENTS ..................................................................................................... i 1.0 INTRODUCTION ..................................................................................................... 1 2.0 BEACH CONDITION SURVEYS AND EROSION ANALYSIS ............................................... 2 2.1 Data Collection Methods ....................................................................................................... 3 2.1.1 Survey Stationing History ........................................................................................... 3 2.1.2 Vertical Datum ............................................................................................................. 6 2.1.3 Data Collection Methodology ..................................................................................... 6 2.2 Beach Profiles ........................................................................................................................ 9 2.3 Profile Volume Analysis Methodology ................................................................................. 14 2.3.1 Profile Volume Approach .......................................................................................... 14 2.3.2 Reference Contours and Calculation Boundaries .................................................... 17 2.4 Historical Erosion Rate ......................................................................................................... 19 2.4.1 Methodology of Aerial Photograph Analyses ........................................................... 19 2.4.2 Historical Shorelines ................................................................................................. 22 2.4.3 Recent Variations in Shoreline Change Rates .......................................................... 27 2.4.4 Rhythmic Shoreline Changes .................................................................................... 34 2.5 Volume Analysis of July 2020 Survey ................................................................................... 37 2.5.1 July 2020 Field Work ................................................................................................. 37 2.5.2. Unit Volume Analyses .............................................................................................. 41 3.0 COASTAL PROCESSES ........................................................................................... 48 3.1 Wave Climate ........................................................................................................................ 49 3.1.1 Real-Time Wave Buoy – Station 41025 ..................................................................... 49 3.1.2 Wave Information Studies – Station 63230 .............................................................. 52 3.2 Wave Modeling ..................................................................................................................... 57 3.2.1 Model Capabilities ..................................................................................................... 57 3.2.2 Model Assumptions ................................................................................................... 58 3.3 Shoreline Evolution Modeling .............................................................................................. 59 3.4 Model Setup .......................................................................................................................... 61 3.4.1 STWAVE Model Grid ................................................................................................... 62 3.4.2 GenCade Model Grid ................................................................................................. 62 3.4.3 Model Grid Size .......................................................................................................... 64 3.4.4 Model Bathymetry ..................................................................................................... 64 3.4.5 Wave Climate Analysis .............................................................................................. 69 3.4.6 Model Parameters ..................................................................................................... 69 3.5 STWAVE Model Results ......................................................................................................... 69 3.6 GenCade Model Calibration ................................................................................................. 78 3.7 GenCade Model Results ....................................................................................................... 79 3.8 Conclusions .......................................................................................................................... 82 REFERENCES .............................................................................................................. 83 Attachment 1-A) Baseline and Control Attachment 1-B) Station Coordinates for July 2020 Survey Attachment 2) Beach and Inshore Profiles Coastal Science & Engineering Littoral Processes [2525–Appendix D] Avon Village, Dare County, North Carolina iv — THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK — Coastal Science & Engineering Littoral Processes [2525–Appendix D] Avon Village, Dare County, North Carolina 1 1.0 INTRODUCTION This appendix supplements information in the main text of this document and provides additional data and analyses of erosion, wave climate, numerical modeling, and littoral processes in the proposed Avon Village nourishment project area. It covers the follow ing topics:  Field data collection for beach condition surveys  Beach and inshore profiles  Volume analysis for defining beach condition  Historical erosion rates analysis  Wave climate (NDBC wave buoy and WIS hindcast data)  Wave transformation modeling to evaluate wave field for before and after dredging conditions  Shoreline evolution modeling to evaluate longshore sediment transport with and without the nourishment project  Profile adjustment after nourishment and project longevity Coastal Science & Engineering Littoral Processes [2525–Appendix D] Avon Village, Dare County, North Carolina 2 — THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK — Coastal Science & Engineering Littoral Processes [2525–Appendix D] Avon Village, Dare County, North Carolina 3 2.0 BEACH CONDITION SURVEYS AND EROSION ANALYSIS 2.1 Data Collection Methods 2.1.1 Survey Stationing History Coastal Science & Engineering (CSE) established a project baseline encompassing the length of Hatteras Island from Oregon Inlet to Cape Point using existing monuments. Stationing is in standard engineering units beginning near the Oregon Inlet jetty (station 0+00) and ending in the Cape Hatteras National Seashore (CHNS) (station 1983+77).* Intermediate control points mark the turning points and azimuths along the baseline. [*Stationing in engineering nomenclature is shorthand for distances along a line. In this case, station numbers increase from north to south , so station 420+00 (for example) is 42,000 f eet (ft) or ~8 miles south of the starting point near Oregon Inlet. Station 1792+50 (for example) is 179,250 ft or ~34 miles from the starting point.] Attachment 1-A lists the control points and applicable stationing along the baseline. The total length of the baseline is ~198,377 linear feet (lf), and stations provide a convenient measure of distances along the shore. Table 2.1 lists some reference stations and localities along the baseline. TABLE 2.1. Baseline (BL) and stationing along Hatteras Island for the current project at reference localities. See Attachment 1-A for a list of control monuments (turning points) along the baseline. Station Monument # Locality Note 0+00 ― Oregon Inlet jetty North end of BL ~347+00 ― Pea Island 2011 breach inlet ― ~635+00 ― Mirlo Beach ― 686+44 ― Rodanthe BL turning point ~712+00 ― Rodanthe Pier ― ~1573+00 ― Village of Avon ― ~1590+00 ― Avon Pier ― ~1880+00 ― Village of Buxton North end of development 1928+11 CHL1 Old Hatteras Lighthouse site ― 1983+77 BYRD Cape Point area South end of BL Coastal Science & Engineering Littoral Processes [2525–Appendix D] Avon Village, Dare County, North Carolina 4 The same baseline was utilized in the present Avon study to set up evenly spaced beach profile lines at 500 ft spacing along the survey area. The Village of Avon community along the oceanfront begins near Station 1500+00 and ends near Station 1680+00, encompassing a total of 18,000 lf (~3.4 miles) of shoreline, and the proposed project area covers approximately 73 percent of the Avon shoreline from 15500+00 to 1682+00 (2.5 miles). The study area for a feasibility study included some upcoast and downcoast shoreline of CAHA, extending from stations 1470+00 to 1700+00, totaling 23,000 lf (~4.36 miles) (CSE 2020). The proposed project area is within this study area. Appendix 1-B lists the control points and applicable stationing along the baseline for the Avon study, and the survey lines are illustrated in Figure 2.1. Five reaches are delineated based on the geographic locations and the volu me analyses as shown in Figure 2.1. Reach 1 is CAHA land managed by the National Park Service (NPS) immediately upcoast of Avon Village. Reaches 2 and 3 cover 9,500 ft of the Village north of Avon Pier and Reach 4 is the priority study area extending ~8,000 ft south of the pier to Askins Creek North Drive . Reach 5 encompasses the 3,000 ft of shoreline from Askins Creek North Drive into CAHA. The proposed project area is from stations 1550+00 to 1682+00, encompassing the entire Reaches 3 and 4 with some extensions on both the northern and southern ends of these two reaches. Coastal Science & Engineering Littoral Processes [2525–Appendix D] Avon Village, Dare County, North Carolina 5 FIGURE 2.1. Map of the Avon study area in the feasibility study showing the “Hatteras Island baseline” (CSE 2020) and stationing in engineering form. Bathymetric survey lines of the study are shown in the figure. Five reaches are delineated ba sed on the beach survey analyses. The offshore sand search area is marked by the blue box, and the blue dots represent the core locations. Red dots along the beach show the locations of sand sampling. Offshore coring and sand sampling on the beach are discussed in the Environmental Assessment – Appendix A – Geotechnical Data Analysis. Coastal Science & Engineering Littoral Processes [2525–Appendix D] Avon Village, Dare County, North Carolina 6 2.1.2 Vertical Datum The vertical datum for CSE’s profile data collecti on was NAVD 88 (North American Vertical Datum of 1988) which is ~0.4 ft above present mean tide level (MTL) in Dare County (NOAA-NOS). Figure 2.2 illustrates the vari ous relationships among key reference datums for the closest tidal station at Cape Hatteras (NC) fishing pier, which is ~10 miles southwest of the Avon project area. At the pier, mean ocean tide range is 3 .0 ft with an average spring tide of 3.5 ft (NOAA Tides and Currents, station 865 4400). Mean high water (MHW) is 1.05 ft above NAVD; mean tide level is 0.4 5 ft below NAVD; and mean low water (MLW) is 1.94 ft below NAVD. The horizontal datum used in CSE’s data collection is NAD’83 (North American Datum of 1983, Zone : NC 3200). 2.1.3 Data Collection Methodology Hydrographic data collection methodology followed procedures outlined in the USACE Hydro graphic Surveying Manual (EM 1110–2–1003; January 2002, updated April 2004). Data were collected in the horizontal datum of North American Datum of 1983 (NAD’83) and were measured in US survey feet using State Plane Coordinates in the zone N C– 3200 for Hatteras Island. The vertical datum was the North American Vertical Datum of 1988 (NAVD 88) measured in feet. CSE has been upgrading survey equipment and software over the years to apply the most up-to-date industry standards to the Avon project area. Two RTK-GNSS (Trimble® Model R10 GNSS) units were used for the data collection. The R10 GNSS and TSC3 Data Collector with built-in modem allow CSE to access real -time networks (RTN) nationwide where available. This feature eliminates the need for an on-site “base station .” The offshore work was performed using an Applanix™ POS MV SurfMaster positioning system, a state -of-the-art navigation system used to facilitate vessel tracking and duplication of survey lines. It incorporates the GPS Azimuth Measurement System (GAMS) and solves for position in six degrees of freedom (boat position and orientation, heading, heave, roll, and velocity over the bottom). This system is linked onboard the survey vessel in “real time” to an Odom™ Echotrac CV100 and SMSW200 –4a transducer for depth measurements. The s ounder has a depth range of 0.8 ft to 1,000 ft with a 4° beam width and is designed to operate in very shallow depths such as FIGURE 2.2. Key reference datums at Cape Hatteras (NC) fishing pier (~9 miles southwest of the project area). [Source: NOAA-Tides and Currents Station ID 8654400] Coastal Science & Engineering Littoral Processes [2525–Appendix D] Avon Village, Dare County, North Carolina 7 shoals of inlets or the inner surf zone. The unit has a resolution of 0.1 ft and an accuracy of 0.01 meter (0.03 ft) plus or minus 0.1% of depth. CSE’s navigation and surveying system for overwater work enable s the recording of direct measurements of the bottom without the need for tide corrections. Offshore profiles were collected at 50 Hz but were filtered in the office to elimin ate spikes and provide a 10 –16-point floating average. Smoothed offshore data were edited to a manageable size and merged with subaerial data, which extend from the foredune to low-tide wading depth. CSE maintains up-to-date software licensing and support for processing overwater and overland data, including HYPACK™ 2021 and Trimble® Business Center (TBC). HYPACK™ is the industry standard for preparing raw survey data for plotting, export to CAD, and other final products. It allows CSE’s field team to qu ickly detect missing data, anomalies, and spikes while in the field to ensure the tracklines match closely from survey to survey. The TBC software similarly processes raw survey data and facilitates QA/QC and data export to CAD and GIS software. Inshore surveys were obtained at higher tide stages to fill in the gap of the land -based data collected around lower tide stages. The survey profiles extended from low -tide depth into the nearshore area and the outer surf zone (~3,500 –5,000 ft from the baseline). Figure 2.3 shows representative field data collection photos. Coastal Science & Engineering Littoral Processes [2525–Appendix D] Avon Village, Dare County, North Carolina 8 FIGURE 2.3. Field data collection methods involved subaerial survey using RTK-GPS at low tide and hydrographic surveys by boat at high tide. Coastal Science & Engineering Littoral Processes [2525–Appendix D] Avon Village, Dare County, North Carolina 9 Data collected in x-y-z format were used directly to develop a digital terrain model (DTM), which provides a three-dimensional picture of the beach, the longshore bar, and the offshore z one. Figure 2.4 illustrates DTMs of the Avon project area from the most recent survey (July 2020) by color-coded, smooth-contour maps using the indicated elevation/depth intervals for each color. Light colors indicate the dune-beach zone and longshore bar; deep blue represents water depths >30 ft. The bathymetry DTM s show relatively smooth, continuous morphology of a longshore bar (yellow-green color band) (inside the 20-ft depth contour) along the northern half of Avon. The longshore bar diminishes to the south and an inshore bar develops in shallower water. 2.2 Beach Profiles Although sediment transport and morphology changes in the nearshore are three -dimensional, it is customary in beach analysis to separately consider the cross -shore and planform (ie – alongshore) evolution. Survey data (coll ected in x-y-z format) were converted to x-z (distance- elevation) pairs to compare beach conditions among profile lines. No recoverable historical profiles into deep water were found prior to 20 20; therefore, we believe the data collected by CSE in July 2020 was the first set of comprehensive beach profiles for this area extending from the frontal dunes to deep water. Representative profiles from the July 2020 survey are shown in Figure 2.5. [See Figures 2.1 and the aerial photo insert at the right -hand corner of Figures 2.5a-c for general locations.] Attachment 2 contains the set of 47 long profiles obtained by CSE in July 2020. Profiles north of Avon Pier in July 2020 exhibited a well-defined longshore b ar with a crest at −10 to −14 ft NAVD positioned ~1,000 to 1,200 ft offshore along the shoreface. This longshore bar broadens and flattens to the south from Avon Pier with a deeper crest (than the northern section) at about −20 ft. The offshore bar dwind les at the south end of Avon. Instead, a small inshore bar at −6 ft to −10 ft emerges south of Station 1660+00 in July (see Fig 2.5c). Coastal Science & Engineering Littoral Processes [2525–Appendix D] Avon Village, Dare County, North Carolina 10 FIGURE 2.4. Color-coded topography and bathymetry Digital Terrain Models (DTM) from the July 2020 beach condition survey for the Avon feasibility study (CSE 2020). Note: the proposed nourishment project area is mainly along Reaches 3 and 4. Coastal Science & Engineering Littoral Processes [2525–Appendix D] Avon Village, Dare County, North Carolina 11 FIGURE 2.5a. Representative profiles for the Avon study area. [UPPER] at Station 1485+00 in the middle of Reach 1 (CAHA) showing a frontal dune at +18 ft NAVD and a second dune ~200 ft landward of the frontal dune at about +20 ft NAVD, indicating a healthy beach condition and high level of storm resiliency. [LOWER] at Station 1530+00 in Reach 2 (north Avon) showing a foredune extending to +24 ft NAVD and broad dry- sand beach situated ~500−800 ft from the toe of the dune. A small inshore bar with crest at −10 ft NAVD is positioned ~1,000 ft from the baseline. Coastal Science & Engineering Littoral Processes [2525–Appendix D] Avon Village, Dare County, North Carolina 12 FIGURE 2.5b. Representative profiles for the Avon study area. [UPPER] at Station 1570+00 in Reach 3 (mid Avon) showing a foredune nearly at +24 ft NAVD and approximately 100 ft of dry-sand beach from the toe of the dune. The longshore bar with the crest around −14 ft NAVD in the northern reaches migrated landward by a few hundred feet going south. [LOWER] at Station 1615+00 in Reach 4 (half mile south of Avon Pier) showing lack of dune, escarpment at the dune face, narrow dry-sand beach, and steeper beach face. The longshore bar becomes flatter with a deeper crest. Coastal Science & Engineering Littoral Processes [2525–Appendix D] Avon Village, Dare County, North Carolina 13 FIGURE 2.5c. Representative profiles for the Avon study area. [UPPER] at Station 1660+00 in Reach 4 (~1,000 ft north of Askins Creek North Drive) showing a foredune at +24 ft NAVD and approximately 30−50 ft of dry-sand beach from the toe of the dune. An inshore bar with a broad crest around −12 ft NAVD occurred at this locality in July. [LOWER] at Station 1685+00 in Reach 5 (near the last house at the south boundary of Avon) showing a foredune at +24 ft NAVD and approximately 200 ft of dry-sand beach from the toe of the dune. An inshore bar occurred near the low-tide terrace around −6 ft NAVD. Coastal Science & Engineering Littoral Processes [2525–Appendix D] Avon Village, Dare County, North Carolina 14 2.3 Profile Volume Analysis Methodology 2.3.1 Profile Volume Approach Volume variations along the Avon project area were estimated using standard methods (average - end-area method), common cross-shore boundaries, and contour datums. Two primary lenses (ie – volumes between particular reference contours) were use d to analyze beach/inshore profiles using CSE's Beach Profile Analysis System (BPAS) software which facilitates statistical analysis, volume change calculations, and graphing. Profile volumes are a convenient way to determine the condition of the beach and compare one area with another. As Figure 2.6 illustrates, the active littoral zone encompasses a broad area between the dunes and some limiting offshore depth. Each profile incorporates complex topography , which changes continuously as the beach adjusts to varying wave energy, sediment supply, and tide range. Storms modify the profile by shifting sand from the dry beach and foredune to the outer surf zone. After storms, fair -weather waves tend to move sand back to the visible beach and reshape protect ive longshore bars. If this cycle of offshore/onshore sediment transport remains balanced over time, the beach will be stable with no net loss of volumes in the profile. However, if more sand moves offshore or down coast over time than returns to the vis ible beach, there will be a net loss and a specific volume erosion rate. FIGURE 2.6. Representative profile of the littoral zone illustrating the principal features between the dune and offshore. The profile varies with changes in wave energy, the passage of storms, and differences in sediment quality. The Avon erosion analysis takes into account the cycle of beach profile changes and focuses on the sand volumes in the entire littoral zone. [Based on Komar 1998] Coastal Science & Engineering Littoral Processes [2525–Appendix D] Avon Village, Dare County, North Carolina 15 FIGURE 2.7. Variation in equilibrium barrier island and foreshore profiles for Louisiana and North Carolina. Coarser sandy sediments [typically 0.4 millimeters (mm) grain size] (left) lead to steeper profiles and less volume in the base of North Carolina barrier islands relative to Louisiana which is founded on fine-grained sediments (typically ~0.1 mm grain size) (right). Ocean is to the right on the diagram. Note: 1 meter ≈ 3.28 ft. [From CSE 2011] While it is possible to approximate the equilibrium shape of beach profiles by simple analyt ical equations (Dean 1991, 2002), each site has a unique set of coastal processes (wa ves, tides, and nearshore currents) as well as complex admixtures of sediment. The morphology and slopes across the surf zone vary significantly as sediments of differing sizes are sorted by waves. The coarsest material tends to concentrate in shallow wa ter at the inshore breaker line. Finer sands tend to accumulate on the longshore bar (if present) and foredune. As Komar (1998) and many others have shown, coarser sediments tend to produce steeper foreshore slopes (see Fig 2.6) than fine sand, assuming wave energy is similar. The implication is that less coarse sand is required to establish a profile in equilibrium with the local waves and tides compared with a beach consisting of very fine sand. This is illustrated in Figure 2.7. The example in the graphic compares a typical cross -section through a Louisiana barrier island with the North Carolina coast. Much of the Louisiana coast consists of very fine sand and experiences relatively low wave energy. Barrier islands are low -relief with very broad platforms extending miles offshore. North Carolina Outer Banks barriers are composed of much coarser sands which tend to equilibrate at steeper slopes despite higher wind and wave energy. As a result, a cross -section through a North Carolina barrier isla nd will have higher relief compared to Louisiana. Coastal Science & Engineering Littoral Processes [2525–Appendix D] Avon Village, Dare County, North Carolina 16 Researchers have found that basic differences among beach profiles can be distinguished by simple measures of profile volumes (eg – Verhagen 1992, Kana 1993). Profile volumes convert a two-dimensional measure of the beach to a “unit volume” measure , as illustrated in Figure 2.8. By using common datums and similar starting points (say, near the dune crest), it is possible to calculate the volume of sand contained in a unit -length of beach. Profile volumes integrate all the small-scale perturbations across the beach and provide a simple objective measure of beach condition (Kana 1993 , Kana et al 2015). They provide quantitative estimates of sand deficits or surpluses when compared against a target or desirable beach condition. The examples of profile volumes in Figure 2.8 show a “normal” beach with a representative unit volume of 100 cy/ft measured to low-tide wading depth. A normal healthy profile is gen - erally considered to consist of a stable foredune and a dry beach that is wide enough to undergo normal seasonal and storm changes without adverse impact to the dune or backshore development. FIGURE 2.8. The concept of unit-width profile volumes for a series of beach profiles showing an eroded beach with a deficit, a normal beach, and a beach with a volume surplus. Profile volumes integrate small-scale perturbations in profile shape and provide a simple objective measure of beach condition. Indicated quantities are realistic for many East Coast beaches within the elevation limits shown. [After Kana 1990] Coastal Science & Engineering Littoral Processes [2525–Appendix D] Avon Village, Dare County, North Carolina 17 The other profiles in the graphic illustrate values for an eroding beach (in this case, backed by a seawall) and a beach with a sand surplus. For this simple example, the unit volume of the eroded profile is 50 cy/ft, or ~50 percent of the normal beach. The third profile illustrates a beach with a surplus of sand along the dry beach and wet -sand beach relative to a normal healthy profile. Such areas often reflect accreting conditions where shallow bars are welding to the beach near inlets. The calculation limits can be arbitrary as long as they are consistently applied. Ideally, they should encompass the entire active zone of profile change for the time period(s) of interest. It should be readily apparent that at least 50 cy/ft must be added to the eroded profile in Figure 2.8 to achieve a normal, healthy profile. In actuality, much more sand is required to account for the area between low-tide wading depth and the offshore limit of significant sand movement (see Fig 2.6). Analyses such as these are necessarily site -specific, but they are practical measures of sand deficits and erosional losses over time. 2.3.2 Reference Contours and Calculation Boundaries The normal limit of significant change in bottom elevation (ie – “depth of closure*” – DOC) for the Avon project area was determined to be −24 ft NAVD (USACE/NPS 2015). This depth is based on estimates of DOC at decadal scales at Duck (Birkemeier 19 85), Bogue Banks (Olsen 2006), Nags Head (Kaczkowski & Kana 2012), Buxton (USACE/NPS 2015). Therefore, the seaward calculation limit of unit volumes is referenced from −24 ft NAVD. *Depth of Closure is where successive profiles (ie – cross-sections of the beach zone) tend to converge (or close) over a given period of time, suggesting that major changes in bottom elevation are not occurring beyond that point. It is the depth that FEMA uses when calculating incident- related sand volume loss if a declared disaster occurs to an engineered beach. During rare storms , the observed closure depth can be in deeper water, meaning sand exchange can b e further offshore, as CSE’s monitoring data confirm. **NAVD (North American Vertical Datum of 1988) is a fixed reference elevation between mean high and mean low water. Presently, the NAVD datum is ~0.78 ft above mean tide level in the Avon project area. The landward calculation limit of unit volumes is set at the dune crest (CSE 2020). This calculation provides a measure of how much extra sand is contained in the profile sea ward of the dune crest relative to the quantity in the active beach zone. The utility of this approach is that the relative condition o f the beach from locality to locality can be objectively compared. Areas that contain a stable dune and wide beach seaward of dune crest can serve as a reference healthy condition for areas of high erosion and large sand deficits. Coastal Science & Engineering Littoral Processes [2525–Appendix D] Avon Village, Dare County, North Carolina 18 FIGURE 2.9. The beach zone used for calculating sand quantities along the Avon project area. The zone of interest extends from the dune crest to a specified offshore depth (FEMA reference at −24 feet NAVD), in effect, a large sand box over which waves shape the beach and shift sand around. Volume changes within the calculation limits (ie — “sand box”) for the Avon project area are estimated using standard methods (average -end-area method) and common cross -shore boundaries and contour datums. Three lenses (ie – volumes between particular reference contours) were used in the feasibility study to evaluate levels of dune protection, dry beach and construction berm adjustments, wet beach condition, inshore surf zone, and the outer surf zone (CSE 2020). These three lenses are described as follows.  Lens 1 (D unes ) — Volume Above +6 ft NAVD — The nourishment construction berm varied between +6 ft and +7 ft NAVD (CSE 2019; USACE/NPS 2015). For the purpose of feasibility study and planning, this elevation is set at +6 ft NAVD. The volume above the berm elevation is a measure of the sand quantities shifted toward the dunes and upper beach. Therefore, this is a measure of storm and flood protection levels associated with the project or gains in dune volume due to post-project buildup above the contour.  Lens 2 (Beach to Low Tide Terrace ) — This lens encompasses the active beach to low - tide wading de pth (from +7 to −6 ft NAVD). It includes the primary recreational portion of the beach and the surf zone , where most wave -breaking occurs.  Lens 3 (Underwater to FEMA Reference Depth ) — This lens represent s the outer breaker zone and extends to the FEMA re ference depth (from −6 ft to −24 ft NAVD). It is the area beyond which there is relatively little change in bottom. Lens 2 Lens 3 Coastal Science & Engineering Littoral Processes [2525–Appendix D] Avon Village, Dare County, North Carolina 19 2.4 Historical Erosion Rate 2.4.1 Methodology of Aerial Photograph Analyses CSE used the project baseline to reference sh oreline positions depicted on various historical aerial photographs. Following standard practice, shoreline position from photographs generally references a morphologic feature. Two commonly identified points are the seaward vegetation line, which usually corresponds to a point near the foredune crest along Hatteras Island, and the “dry-sand wet-sand” contact line on the active beach which approximates mean high water. We also reviewed shoreline change rates determined by others using similar map/photo s ources and methodology. Before presenting results of the “linear” shoreline change analyses completed by the state of North Carolina (ie – official erosion rates) (NCDENR 2012) and CSE’s present analyses, it is useful to consider how such shoreline delinea tions may not represent consistent positions. Figures 2.10 and 2.11 illustrate ways that the beach condition at a particular time or erosion stage can vary. Figure 2.10 shows a sequence of idealized profiles as they evolve over a storm period. The initi al profile includes a vegetated dune, dry -sand beach, and sloping beach face. Mean high water (MHW) falls along the sloping beach some distance seaward of the dry beach level. This reflects the fact that breaking waves produce runup above the high tide l evel pushing sand to a higher level. If a storm impacts the profile, the sloping beach cuts back leaving a low scarp (2 nd panel). Given sufficient time during a storm, the scarp may cut back to the base of the dune. Further erosion then undermines the foredune leaving a narrow remnant (4 th panel). Mean high water shifts landward in proportion to the intensity of the storm as illustrated in Figure 2.10. If a large dune is present, it will take a major storm to erode it away. After the dune crest is los t, storm waves can overtop the remnant feature and drive sand inland producing a “washover” and depositing sand inland. Delineation of MHW shoreline, therefore, depends on the stage of the beach and whether the imagery was obtained before or soon after a storm. Note that in these examples, the seaward vegetation line along the dune does not move as much as MHW until the dune is washed away (bottom panel). Coastal Science & Engineering Littoral Processes [2525–Appendix D] Avon Village, Dare County, North Carolina 20 FIGURE 2.10. A sequence of beach conditions associated with erosion events illustrating the greater variation in “shoreline” position using mean high water (red arrows) versus the seaward vegetation line (green arrows). [Source: CSE©] Coastal Science & Engineering Littoral Processes [2525–Appendix D] Avon Village, Dare County, North Carolina 21 Figure 2.11 shows how some profiles grow seaward over time. The initial profile is the same a s the previous figure but with a sustained dry -sand beach, wave runup leaves a debris line (“wrack”) which serves as a seedbed for pioneering plants. The plants begin to trap sand and an incipient dune starts to form along the wrack lines. If the beach r emains stable or grows seaward, the incipient dune will grow and become a new foredune (lower panel). Thus, interpreting the seaward vegetation line is difficult for the “Time 1” condition in the middle panel, but relatively easy once vegetation is well established (top and bottom panels). Because shoreline position interpretation from aerial photos or historical charts can be problematic, short time intervals between aerial photos will tend to yield more variable rates of change than long time intervals. The official erosion rates for Avon utilize a ~60 –65-year period to eliminate some of the errors associated with the stage of the beach at the time of the available photography (see next section). FIGURE 2.11. Beach profile evolution under stable or accreting conditions showing emergence and growth of a new foredune and the effect on shoreline position using the seaward vegetation line (green arrows). [Source: CSE©] Coastal Science & Engineering Littoral Processes [2525–Appendix D] Avon Village, Dare County, North Carolina 22 2.4.2 Historical Shorelines NC Department of Natu ral Resources (NCDNR – formerly NC Department of Environment and Natural Resources – NCDENR) periodically publishes official, long -term, average annual oceanfront erosion rates (“setback factors”) for North Carolina. An early analysis was prepared by Tafun et al (1979) who applied the “end -point method,” which was retained by NCDENR in subsequent updates. The end-point method computes average annual rates at each shoreline transect using the earliest and most -current shoreline position. The earliest shor elines considered in prior analyses are typically based on NOAA’s National Ocean Service (NOS) “T -sheets” from the 1920s to 1930s. More recent shorelines are interpreted from controlled aerial photography using the “wet/dry” line at the edge of the surf z one. This line approximates local MHW at the time of the photography (Overton & Fisher 2003). NCDENR (2012) details the various blocking and smoothing algorithms applied in developing official rates along Dare County. That study utilized imagery from 1946/49 and July 2009 (endpoints), which predated a series of significant storm events over the past decade (eg – Hurricane Sandy 2012; Matthew 2016). Figure 2.12 shows the results of the NCDENR (2012) analysis and is included here to illustrate the variabil ity along Hatteras Island near Avon. A striking aspect of the NCDENR (2012) shoreline change rates along Hatteras Island is their large variation alongshore. Long barrier islands with few active inlets often exhibit more uniform shoreline change rates (Hayes 1994). This is certainly the case north of Oregon Inlet along most of Bodie Island or along Bogue Banks (NCDENR 2012). By comparison, some short segments of Hatteras Island have zones of moderate accretion (>5 ft/yr) in close proximity to zones of hi gh erosion (>10 ft/yr). The Avon area demonstrates both conditions. Avon extends from NCDENR stations ~7315 to ~7425 (See Figure 2.12). The south half of the project area experienced erosion at 2–5 ft per year between 1949 and 2009 (NCDENR 2012, Fig 2.13–2.15). By comparison, the north half of Avon accreted at 1–4 ft/yr during the same period. This result is consistent with findings of Everts et al (1983), who determined rates for 1949 –1980 at five transects along Avon (by 1.0 -minute latitude intervals, or every ~6,000 ft) (Table 2.2). Coastal Science & Engineering Littoral Processes [2525–Appendix D] Avon Village, Dare County, North Carolina 23 Latitude Location 1849–1915 1849–1980 1915–1949 1915–1980 1949–1980 35° 22΄ North Avon 4.0 0.2 –8.5 –3.9 1.2 35° 21΄ ~ Pier 0.8 –0.5 NO –1.9 NO 35° 20΄ –0.1 –0.3 –1.3 –0.6 0.1 35° 19΄ 0.3 –1.0 –3.2 –2.0 –1.1 35° 18΄ South Avon –0.4 –2.0 –5.6 –3.7 –1.4 Mean Ocean Shoreline Changes from Oregon Inlet to Cape Hatteras 1852–1917 1917–1949 1949–1980 1852–1980 0.4 –2.9 –1.3 –1.1 TABLE 2.2. Historical accretion (+) and erosion (–) rates for Avon at ~1 nautical mile (ie – one minute of latitude) transects using high tide lines as determined by US Coast and Geodetic and present-day NOAA surveys. Results in meters per year; 1 meter = ~3.28 ft. [Source Everts et al 1983] FIGURE 2.12 Long-term shoreline change rates for Hatteras Island around Avon derived from historical aerial photography (1946/49 and 2009) showing smoothed and blocked data by transect as prepared by NCDENR and their consultants. Shoreline segments in red exhibit long-term erosion, whereas, green indicates accreting areas. Avon, situated between transect IDs ~7320 and 7420, shows trends of erosion along the southern half of the community and accretion north of Avon Pier. [Source: NCDENR 2012, Figs 2.13–2.15] Coastal Science & Engineering Littoral Processes [2525–Appendix D] Avon Village, Dare County, North Carolina 24 The Everts et al (1983) “30 -yr” shoreline change rate for Avon (1949–1980) ranged from +1.2 to –1.4 meters per year (~+3.9 to –4.6 ft/yr). NCDENR (2012) “60-year” rates, using 1949–2009 imagery, ranged from +5.5 to –4.5 ft/yr. NCDENR (2012) published “setback” factors for Avon based on these data (Fig 2.13). Stable and accreting areas are assigned a 2 ft/yr setback factor irrespective of the specific accretion rate. Figure 2.13 shows the highest erosion along South Avon at 4.5 ft/yr (Note : Avon Pier is situated near Dune Way where the rates go from 2 to 3 ft/y r at the left-center). The figure also indicates prior maximum erosion at 3 ft/yr for the 2003 rates. This yields the official erosion rates as determined by NCDNR. NCDNR-Division of Coastal Management (NCDCM) now maintains a web -link to linear erosion rate data for Dare County (NCDENR.maps.arcgis.com). CSE downloaded the most recent NCDNR rates in June 2020 and noted there have been slight increases in erosion rates since the 2012 maps were published (Fig 2.14). For example, the maximum setback factor has increased from 4.5 ft/yr to 6.0 ft/yr along south-central Avon as of 2020. Accretion remains the predominant trend north of the pier and along CAHA at the south end of the Village. Data on the NCDCM website show continued accretion along North Avon at rates up to 4.6 ft/yr near Wahoo Circle. The highest official erosion rate (2020) is 6.6 ft/yr in the Ocean View Drive neighborhood near Pampas Drive around 4,000 ft south of Avon Pier. The present prorated average official erosion rate (or “setback factor”) along South Avon is ~4.7 ft/yr. In next section we will discuss how these linear change rates can be converted to equivalent volumetric rates in the Avon setting. Using an adopted ratio of dry beach loss to volumetric loss (1.15) yields an average annual loss rate of roughly 5.4 cy/ft/yr along South Avon (applicable to ~10,750 lf). Coastal Science & Engineering Littoral Processes [2525–Appendix D] Avon Village, Dare County, North Carolina 25 FIGURE 2.13. Official (2012) erosion rates (“setback factors”) for the Avon area as determined by NCDENR (now NCDNR) Division of Coastal Management using 1949 – 2009 aerial imagery. Coastal Science & Engineering Littoral Processes [2525–Appendix D] Avon Village, Dare County, North Carolina 26 FIGURE 2.14. NCDCM official erosion rates (“setback factors”) in feet per year for Avon. Note ~35% increase since the 2012 condition and ~100% increase since the 2003 condition on Figure 2.5. [Source: NCDNR-DCM 2020] Coastal Science & Engineering Littoral Processes [2525–Appendix D] Avon Village, Dare County, North Carolina 27 2.4.3 Recent Variations in Shoreline Change Rates As the previous section of this report describes, official erosion rates (setback factors) have increased along Avon between 2003 (NCDENR 2012) and 2020. North Avon remains healthy and accretional, but South Avon exhibits roughly 100% higher erosion rates. Official state rates appropriately consider a relatively long period of time (40 –70 years) in the analysis to avoid short- term bias associated with storm events and seasonal variations in the high water line. CSE completed an independent analysis of shoreline change, using a combination of published lines and aerial photo interpretations. A total of 12 d ates of surveys and imagery were utilized spanning the years 1980 to February 2020. Everts et al (1983) performed a rigorous analysis of earlier shorelines and presented average rates for several periods between ~1850 and 1980 (See Table 2.2). CSE downloaded NCDCM shapefiles and digitized selected recent images to generate a set of historical shoreline maps for the project area (Figure s 2.15a and 2.15b). Each panel includes the “1852” and “1946” shorelines for general comparison. CSE used the project b aseline and measured offset distances between the baseline and each shoreline at 500 ft intervals. Results for individual stations were averaged by reach, using five segments of shoreline exhibiting similar trends of accretion or erosion. A cursory view of the shoreline maps (Figure s 2.15a-b) shows that the 1852 and 1946 shorelines fall well seaward of recent shorelines along South Avon, but track close to recent shorelines along the north end of the Village. To help distinguish recent trends, CSE plotted the average shoreline position over time along each reach. The first graphs (Fig 2.16 upper and lower) plot the data from the earliest two surveys to the present (from 1852 and 1946, respectively). These graphs confirm the “century” trends of shorelin e advance north of Avon and “75-yr” advance since the 1940s along North Avon. All other reaches exhibit shoreline retreat since the 1850s or 1940s. The other distinct trend is accelerated recession along South Avon, starting around 2000. Figures 2.17a and 2.17b plot the data for “Forty-Year,” “Twenty-Year,” “Ten-Year,” and “Five-Year” periods along with trend lines to isolate change rates by reach for each period. The graphs also include an overall average for Reaches 3 –5 which represent the principal pr oject area extending from Station 1555+00 (~3,500 ft) north of Avon Pier to the approximate southern Village limit. Reaches 1 and 2 at the north end of the study area generally show accretion for all periods. Earlier data have been omitted in each graph to isolate the trends for the period. The “Forty-Year” and “Twenty -Year” trends show an increase in average erosion rates from ~7.5 ft/yr to 10 ft/yr (Fig 2.17a) along Reaches 3–5. Reach 4, encompassing ~8,000 lf between stations 1590+00 and 1670+00 increased from ~10.7 to 14.4 ft/yr. These rates are higher than official erosion rates (described in Section 2.4.2) because they encompass shorter and more recent time periods. Coastal Science & Engineering Littoral Processes [2525–Appendix D] Avon Village, Dare County, North Carolina 28 As the graphs depict, shoreline retreat was at a slower rate in the 1980s and 199 0s compared with the 2000s and 2010s. Figures 2.17a-b shows the shoreline movement trends during the past decade. The Ten -Year trends are similar to the Twenty -Year trends in magnitude. However, the Five -Year trend (Figure 2.17a-b, lower) shows a decreas e in shoreline retreat to –6.4 ft/yr (Reaches 3–5 combined) and – 3.7 ft/yr (Reach 4), albeit based on only three survey dates. The worst erosion along Avon in recent years has impacted a ~4,000 lf section from ~1,000 to 5,000 ft south of Avon pier. Figure 2.18 shows the change in shoreline position for representative stations in this area since 1997. Stations closest to the pier (Fig 2.18 upper) show recession rates averaging over 17 ft/yr (1997 –2000). At 3,000–4,000 ft south of the pier this “Twenty -Year” trend is ~16 ft/yr recession. These results are in distinct contrast to changes between 1946 and 1998 (Fig 2.18 lower). The limited data available shows a recession in this same area at under 3 ft/yr for the earlier period. FIGURE 2.15a. Historical shorelines for the Avon area used in the present analysis (various sources) as given in the text. Coastal Science & Engineering Littoral Processes [2525–Appendix D] Avon Village, Dare County, North Carolina 29 FIGURE 2.15b. Historical shorelines for the Avon area used in the present analysis (various sources). Coastal Science & Engineering Littoral Processes [2525–Appendix D] Avon Village, Dare County, North Carolina 30 FIGURE 2.16. Changes in average shoreline position by reach along Avon for 1852 to 2020 (upper) and 1946 to 2020 (lower). Note the general acceleration of erosion for most reaches since 2000. Coastal Science & Engineering Littoral Processes [2525–Appendix D] Avon Village, Dare County, North Carolina 31 FIGURE 2.17a. “Forty-Year” and “Twenty-Year” erosion trends for Avon averaged by reach. The value before the “x” in each equation is the erosion (or accretion) factor in feet per year. Rates in the black boxes are averages for Reaches 3, 4, and 5, the main reaches of interest. Coastal Science & Engineering Littoral Processes [2525–Appendix D] Avon Village, Dare County, North Carolina 32 FIGURE 2.17b. “Ten-Year” and “Five-Year” erosion trends for Avon averaged by reach. The value before the “x” in each equation is the erosion (or accretion) factor in feet per year. Rates in the black boxes are averages for Reaches 3, 4, and 5, the main reaches of interest. Coastal Science & Engineering Littoral Processes [2525–Appendix D] Avon Village, Dare County, North Carolina 33 FIGURE 2.18. Trend in erosion for two periods at stations within the most critically eroded section of beach. Note much higher rate of retreat for 1997–2020 compared with 1946 to 1998 (lower). Coastal Science & Engineering Littoral Processes [2525–Appendix D] Avon Village, Dare County, North Carolina 34 2.4.4 Rhythmic Shoreline Changes The previous section analyzed typical shoreline positions by r each using averages of numerous points along the shoreline. A characteristic of Hatteras Island beach is systematic variation in visible beach width i n the longshore direction. This variation was apparent in February 2020 at the time of a UAV flight for the orthorectified aerial photos as shown in Figure 2.19. The figure shows conditions on February 18th along the critically eroded section of Avon sou th of the pier. Three or four sections of the beach were considerably wider than adjacent areas that day, particularly around stations 1620+00, 1650+00, and 1675+00. Rhythmic beach features alongshore occur at various scales and are generally associated with inshore bathymetric variations and the particular stage of the beach cycle (Wright and Short 1983). Where an offshore bar is higher or closer to shore, the dry -sand beach in its lee will tend to be wider. Conversely, where the bar is lower or missi ng, more wave energy can reach the shore and scallop out the visible beach. Similar features were described by Fenster and Dolan (1993) for the Avon area in a University of Virginia study. Inman and Dolan (1989) referred to large -scale variations in beach width as “erosion-accretion waves” and noted there is a tendency for these features to migrate alongshore in the direction of predominant (or “net”) sediment transport. CSE has documented the scale and magnitude of such features at Pine Island (Currituc k County) and Nags Head (CSE 2015, 2018). At Avon, some historical shorelines evaluated by CSE show an amplitude (beach width) fluctuation of over 150 ft and wave length (spacing between wide or crest sections) of ~2,500 –3,000 ft (Fig 2.20). The February 2020 aerial image (Fig 2.19) showed rhythmic shoreline topography at these scales. Figures 2.15a-b shows an aerial photo obtained in September 2018. In that case, the typical amplitude of the features is around 50 ft and the spacing between crests is of the order of 1,000 ft. These differences reflect the seasonality of the beach cycle.* The summer is usually a time of beach buildup under lower wave conditions. This tends to smooth out or fill in erosional arcs and thereby reduce differences in beach width. So an aerial photo in September is likely to exhibit less variation in beach width (unless a hurricane has impacted before the survey!). Fall and winter storms shift sand offshore and produce more irregular topography in the surf zone. This can l ead to large-scale variations in visible beach width illustrated by the 2020 image. [*Beach cycle – Systematic changes in the width and slopes of the visible beach and development of underwater bars based on changes in wave energy. Generally, this refers to the process of onshore-offshore sand transport between fair weather and storm conditions. If the beach cycle is in balance, there are no net losses of sand in the littoral zone.] Coastal Science & Engineering Littoral Processes [2525–Appendix D] Avon Village, Dare County, North Carolina 35 FIGURE 2.19. Rectified aerial photo of south Avon (note pier at the top of the image) via UAV showing large- scale variations in beach width. These longshore sand waves or rhythmic topography are common during certain beach cycles, particularly in winter after the visible beach has eroded. They tend to propagate to the south along Avon in the direction of predominant sand transport. [Source: CSE©] Coastal Science & Engineering Littoral Processes [2525–Appendix D] Avon Village, Dare County, North Carolina 36 Beach width variations described above become important if the seasonal magnitude exceeds the average beach width. For example, if the “trough” of a longshore sand wave is too deep, it will cut into the toe of the foredune and potentially impact developed property. Yet, some short time later, the same section of beach may widen by hundreds of feet as the crest of the sand wave propagates into the area. The implications of this for the present study is that successful beach restoration has to account for the cyclic and localized beach width variatio ns as well as the long-term shoreline erosion rate. The official setback factors published by the state (see Fig 2.13) are long- term averages and generally well below 10 ft/yr for any point along Avon, and may alternate between erosion and accretion for p articular localities during the same period. One of the principal objectives of the present study is to determine how much sand is needed along Avon beach to provide sufficient width for alongshore sand waves to propagate through without adverse impacts to property and community infrastructure. Section 2.5 describes how we can reduce some of the short -term variability in beach condition by volumetric analysis. Rather than considering just one contour along the beach such as MHW, volume analysis evaluates the entire active profile in the beach zone and computes reference quantities that integrate all the small -scale variations in the beach and surf zone (Kana 1993; Kana et al 2015). FIGURE 2.20. Variation in high water shoreline position by station for September 2018 and February 2020 illustrating rhythmic longshore variations in beach width (see text for discussion). Coastal Science & Engineering Littoral Processes [2525–Appendix D] Avon Village, Dare County, North Carolina 37 2.5 Volume Analysis of July 2020 Survey 2.5.1 July 2020 Field Work Field data collection began in July 2020 after delays associated with weather and island closures due to the COVID-19 pandemic. As briefly discussed in Section 2.2, CSE completed the first comprehensive survey of Avon beach using a project baseline and surv ey profiles from the dune line out to ~35 ft water depths at 500 ft spacing between profiles from stations 1470+00 to 1700+00. Table 2.3 summarizes the field data collection performed by CSE. Bathymetric survey lines are shown in Figure 2.1 in the previous section. Beach Condition Survey Completion Date Orthoimagery of the Priority Area from Avon Pier to Askins Creek North Drive 18 February 2020 Beach Condition Survey — 500 ft spacing from stations 1470+00 to 1700+00, a total of 47 profiles encompassing 23,000 linear feet (~4.35 miles) including 2,500 linear feet the Cape Hatteras National Seashore adjacent to the Avon Village. 6–8 July 2020 Sediment samples along 9 transects — 1470+00, 1500+00, 1530+00, 1560+00, 1590+00, 1620+00, 1650+00, 1670+00 , 1700+00 at four locations, ie – foredune, dry beach, wet beach, low tide mark. 7 July 2020 Oblique aerial imagery of the survey area at low tide. 15 July 2020 Orthoimagery of the dune and dry -sand beach along bird closure areas (stations 1470+00 to 1485+00) 15 July 2020 Ground photos were taken at representative monitoring stations. This offers a simple visual assessment of dry beach width, dune condition, vegetative growth, escarpments, and general condition of the beach through time. Photos wer e also taken of any areas or features of par ticular importance or interest observed during the survey and site visits (Figure 2.21a-d). CSE utilized the P4P system to take oblique aerial photos during the July 2020 survey and multiple beach inspections through time. These photos provide unique perspectives of the littoral zone up to an above-ground level of 400 ft (FAA ceiling for UAS). Selected aerial photos marked with notations of reaches are shown in Figure 2.22a-c. TABLE 2.3. CSE’s field work completed for the Avon Village shoreline assessment and beach nourishment study. Coastal Science & Engineering Littoral Processes [2525–Appendix D] Avon Village, Dare County, North Carolina 38 FIGURE 2.21b. Ground photo of the Avon study area (July 2020) at Station 1600+00 looking south. This section of beach experienced accelerated erosion over the past few years, and is within the proposed project area. FIGURE 2.21a. Ground photo of the Avon study area (July 2020) at Station 1600+00 looking north. Avon Pier is shown near the top of the photo. This section of beach experienced accelerated erosion over the past few years, and is within the proposed project area. Coastal Science & Engineering Littoral Processes [2525–Appendix D] Avon Village, Dare County, North Carolina 39 FIGURE 2.21c. Ground photo of the Avon study area (July 2020) at Station 1555+00 looking south. Avon Pier is shown near the top of the photo. This section of beach (Reach 3) is relatively healthy compared to Reach 4, and can be used as a feeder area for Reach 4 in the proposed nourishment project. FIGURE 2.22a. Aerial photo taken on 15 July 2020 showing the highly eroded section of Avon (Reach 4). Coastal Science & Engineering Littoral Processes [2525–Appendix D] Avon Village, Dare County, North Carolina 40 FIGURE 2.22b. Aerial photo taken on 15 July 2020 showing the middle and south sections of Avon. FIGURE 2.22c. Aerial photo taken on 15 July 2020 showing the middle and north sections of Avon and CAHA. The northern boundary of the proposed nourishment project is located near the northern end of Reach 3. Coastal Science & Engineering Littoral Processes [2525–Appendix D] Avon Village, Dare County, North Carolina 41 2.5.2. Unit Volume Analyses Although sediment transport and morphology changes in the nearshore are three -dimensional, it is customary in beach analysis to separately consider the cross -shore and planform (ie – alongshore) evolution. Survey data (collected in x -y-z format) were converted to x -z (distance to baseline—elevation) pairs for purposes of comparing beach conditions among cross -shore profile lines. A long-time rule -of-thumb used by the Corps of Engineers since the first nourishment project at Coney Island (NY) in 1923 assumes a loss of one (1) square foot (ft²) of dry beach area is roughly equivalent to a loss of 1 cubic yard (cy) of sand (CERC 1984). This ratio has also been assumed for some analyses for NCDOT (Prof. M. Overton, NC State University, pers comm, October 2013). It can be shown that this ratio varies according to the dimensions of the active zone of profile change, but remains constant between fixed contours regardless of foreshore slope (Bruun 1962, Hands 1981, Dean 2002, Kana et al 2015). Normally, the vertical dimension considered extends from the dry-beach elevation to the depth of closure (DOC). For example, if the average height of the dry beach is +7 ft NAVD and the local DOC is −20 ft, there will be 27 cubic feet (cf) contained in o ne (1) ft² of “beach” area (Fig 2.23). Conveniently, 27 cf equals 1 cy, so the volume (cy) to area (square feet) ratio equals 1. This ratio is >1 for beaches that exhibit a deeper DOC and <1 for beaches with a shallow DOC. Figure 2.24 illustrates how the volumetric erosion rate varies with the linear erosion rate, as well as the local DOC. FIGURE 2.23. Volume equivalents on a beach . Example assumes the active beach zone extends from the dry -sand beach elevation at +7 ft to an offshore depth of 20 ft. Therefore, 1 ft² of dry beach area represents ~27 cf of profile volume. This ratio remains constant by simple geometry for a parall elogram with equal end -surface area. This concept can also be used to convert linear shoreline change to equivalent unit volume change. For example, 1 ft of dry beach recession, in this example, is equivalent to 27 cf (per foot of shoreline length) sand loss, ie – 27 cf = 1 cy. The ratio varies with the vertical dimensions of the littoral zone (Bruun 1962, Hands 1981) (After Kana et al, 2015). Coastal Science & Engineering Littoral Processes [2525–Appendix D] Avon Village, Dare County, North Carolina 42 At Hunting Island (SC), for example, the inshore area is a relatively constant −12 ft NAVD (de facto DOC), and the dry beach equilibrates around +7 ft. This means 1 ft² of area loss on the visible beach equates to about 0.7 cy of volume loss [ie (7+12)/27 ≈ 0.7]. Similarly, if DOC off Avon is assumed to be −24 ft NAVD and the average dry -beach elevation is +7 ft NAVD, 1 ft² of beach area loss will equate to about 1.15 cy of volume loss [ie (7+24)/27 ≈ 1.15]. CSE used this latter ratio to convert linear erosion rates to volumetric rates in the project areas.* [*Overton and Fisher (2005) assumed a similar dry -beach elevation, but a deeper limit of sand exchange (−30 ft MSL), which equates to a ratio of 1.37 (ie – 1 ft of beach widening requires 1.37 cy/ft of nourishment). The authors report that the ratio “. . . would need to be refined during the engineering design phase of the beach nourishment project.” (pg 7). Their report was prepared prior to major nourishment projects in the Northern Outer Banks an d the availability of post- nourishment profiles into deep water. CSE has adopted –24 ft NAVD for DOC in the nearby Buxton area based on surveys between 2013 and 2020. While the DOC assumed by Overton and Fisher (2003) is deeper and therefore more conserv ative, CSE believes –24 ft NAVD and a ratio of 1.15 is realistic along Avon for project planning.] FIGURE 2.24. Example of the relationship between unit volume erosion rate and linear erosion rate for two beaches. The solid line shows a variable linear erosion rate alongshore, much like the trend and magnitudes for Avon. The upper dashed curve shows an estimated equivalent unit volume erosion rate for high-energy sites with a relatively deep limit of normal sand movement (DOC). The lower dashed curve shows the equivalent volume for a lower-energy site where the DOC is shallower. The ratio that CSE assumed for Avon is 1.15, based on a DOC ≈ 24 ft NAVD. Coastal Science & Engineering Littoral Processes [2525–Appendix D] Avon Village, Dare County, North Carolina 43 Unit volumes for the Avon study area were calculated to determine the quantity of sand in one linear foot of beach at each lens and each survey station. Th ese unit volumes were then used to calculate the average unit volume along each reach. The unit volumes of the three lenses at each survey station are listed together with the profile plots in Attachment 2. Unit volumes are the key elements to determine the sand deficit and formulate shoreline management plans. Figures 2.25, 2.26, and 2.27 show unit volumes station by station for each lens and cumulative lenses using the July 2020 survey. The five reaches delineated for the study area are marked in the figures, and the horizontal lines (in red) show the average unit volume of each reach. The average unit volumes of each reach are summarized in Table 2.4. FIGURE 2.25. Unit volumes by station in the foredune areas (Lens 1) along the Avon study area using the July 2020 survey. Coastal Science & Engineering Littoral Processes [2525–Appendix D] Avon Village, Dare County, North Carolina 44 FIGURE 2.26. Unit volumes by station in the foredune and beach areas (Lenses 1 and 2) along the Avon Village study area using the July 2020 survey. FIGURE 2.27. Unit volumes by station in the foredune, beach, and underwater areas (Lenses 1, 2, and 3, ie – entire profile between the foredune and –24 ft NAVD) along the Avon study area using the July 2020 survey. Coastal Science & Engineering Littoral Processes [2525–Appendix D] Avon Village, Dare County, North Carolina 45 2.5.2.1 Dune – Lens 1 (From Dune Crest to +6 ft NAVD) The first reference lens uses the dune crest as a starting point. The dune crest is a convenient point of comparison because it tends to mark the seaward edge of stable vegetation and defines the morphology and shoreline azimuth along beaches. The dune crest position varies les s than the daily high watermark (surf swash line) or any contour along the intertidal beach zone. Variations in dune position or seaward vegetation line can obviously occur in areas where the dunes have been manipulated by scraping or breached during stor ms. To account for such variations, CSE checked the indicated dune position on surveyed profiles against the overall shoreline morphology and adjusted the reference calculation starting point as necessary to minimize volume variations associated with majo r offsets in dune position among adjacent stations. The +6 ft NAVD contour was chosen because most of the nourishment construction berm s along the northern Outer Banks are designed at +6 ft with some areas up to +7 ft NAVD. The volume from the dune crest to +6 ft elevation is a measure of storm and flood protection levels. It is also the zone that will accumulate aeolian transport and grow dunes after nourishment. The July 2020 survey results show that the 8,500 linear feet of shoreline along Reaches 1 an d 2 (~1.6 miles along CAHA and North Avon Village) are relatively healthy with dune volumes of 56 cubic yards per foot (cy/ft) of shoreline and 66 cy/ft (respective ly). The 8,000 ft of shoreline along Reach 4 (south of the Avon Pier to Askins Creek North Drive) has the lowest dune volume averaging 13 cy/ft, which is 20 cy/ft less than Reach 3 (3,500 ft north of the Avon Pier), 27 cy/ft less than Reach 5 (3,000 ft south of Askins Creek North Drive), and 43–53 cy/ft less than the most northern sections of Avon along Reaches 1 and 2. TABLE 2.4. Summary of average unit volumes by reach in the three reference lenses along the Avon study area using the July 2020 survey. Coastal Science & Engineering Littoral Processes [2525–Appendix D] Avon Village, Dare County, North Carolina 46 2.5.2.2 Beach – Lens 2 (From +6 ft NAVD to –6 ft NAVD) The second lens uses –6 ft NAVD contour as a reference elevation. It includes the dry -sand beach and the wet-sand beach extending to low -tide wading depth. This is not on ly the primary recreational portion of the beach but also the inner surf zone where a significant proportion of wave-breaking and energy dissipation occurs. The July 2020 survey results show that unit volumes in this lens exhibit similar trends as Lens 1. Reach 4 has the lowest unit volume of 60 cy/ft, which is 33 cy/ft less than the adjacent north area (Reach 3) and 39 cy/ft less than the adjacent south area (Reach 5). If compared to the most northern section of Avon (Reach 2) and CAHA (Reach 1), the unit volume of Reach 4 in Lens 2 is only ~30% of the unit volumes in those two northern reaches. In simple terms, low unit volumes in this part of the littoral zone correspond to narrower or steep beaches . 2.5.2.3 Underwater – Lens 3 (From –6 ft NAVD to –24 ft NAVD) The third lens is determined to be between –6 ft and –24 ft NAVD contours. This represents the outer surf zone extending seaward from low -tide wading depth to the closure depth set forth for the FEMA post-storm restoration criteria. The overall trend of July 2020 survey results of Lens 3 is consistent with those of Lenses 1 and 2. Reach 4 has the lowest unit volume of 676 cy/ft, which is 66 cy/ft less than the adjacent south area (Reach 5) and 74 cy/ft less than the adjacent north area (Reach 3). If compared to the most northern section of Avon and CAHA, the underwater volume of Reach 4 (Lens 3) only contains about 70% of the Reach 1 and Reach 2 volumes. This equates to ~250–300 cy/ft less sand in the profile. 2.5.2.4 Entire Profile – Lenses 1, 2, and 3 (From Dune Crest to –24 ft NAVD) The three reference lenses, combined, represent the full active littoral profile between the foredune and deep water during normal annual conditions along Avon beach. The present results indicate that Reach 4 (south of the Avon Pier) has the lowest unit volume of 748 cy/ft, which is 128 cy/ft less than Reach 3, 133 cy/ft less than Reach 5, 440 cy/ft less than Reach 1, and 471 cy/ft less than Reach 2. These profile volume differences along Avon provide a basis for the proposed nourishment volume determinations. We used the results to determine the profile deficit with respect to an ideal or target beach condition. 2.5.2.5 Formulation of the Proposed Nourishment Project To improve longevity and protect a res tored dune, a considerable amount of additional volume would be needed along the recreational beach into shallow water. Nourishment longevity increases geometrically with project length, so we have incorporated additional sections of beach to preserve sand in the critically eroding area much longer . Applying the volumetric data discussed in the previous sections, the County decided a “Five-Year” Plan involving 1,000,000 cy over 13,200 Coastal Science & Engineering Littoral Processes [2525–Appendix D] Avon Village, Dare County, North Carolina 47 lf of shoreline as shown in Figure 2.28 . This would encompass Reaches 3 and 4 and extend several hundred feet to the north and to the south. The proposed project area is from Station 1550+00 to Station 1682+00 which starts ~4,000 ft north of Avon Pier and extends to the south end of Avon. The Five-Year Plan assumes an aver age deficit volume of 53 cy/ft and advance nourishment of ~6.8 cy/ft/yr. These adopted erosion rates are equivalent an estimate erosion rate of 140,000 cy/yr along the 13,200-ft project area. FIGURE 2.28. Proposed beach nourishment at Avon showing the project limits and offshore borrow area. Coastal Science & Engineering Littoral Processes [2525–Appendix D] Avon Village, Dare County, North Carolina 48 3.0 COASTAL PROCESSES Avon is subject to coastal processe s (winds, waves, tides, and currents) typical of the northern North Carolina coast. The Outer Banks in this area is exposed to ocean -swell waves originating from the southeast and storm waves associated with nor ’easters. The highest waves are generally associated with tropical storms and may occur in phase with hurricane su rges. Hurricane waves can approach from all onshore directions as the storms track through the area. The spring tide range is ~3.5 ft (NOAA-NOS 1983), and tides are semi -diurnal. Previous studies and geomorphic evidence suggest that net longshore transport (ie – sand movement in the littoral zone) is predominantly southerly (Inman & Dolan 1989). A thorough coastal processes study was conducted for an adjacent site at Buxton, ~2 miles downcoast of the proposed project area (USACE/NPS 2015 – Appendix A – Littoral Processes). This section details littoral processes affecting the proposed Avon project area and addresses specific questions regarding the potential impact of the proposed project on these processes. The use of an offshore borrow area can influence waves, thereby modifying local sand transport rates. Depending on the geometry of the borrow area, the excavation may effectively reduce wave heights in part of the affected area and cause wave heights to increase elsewhere. To quantify the changes in waves due to the borrow area and potential impact on sedimen t transport, wave height over the potential borrow site was analyzed to compare pre -dredge conditions with anticipated post-dredge conditions. Sediment transport was examined to determine how local increases in wave energy density due to the presence of the borrow area might affect the regional sand - transport potential. The placement of nourishment sand on the beach may pot entially impact sediment trans port along other strategic locations. Closure depth (the approximate limit of measurable bottom change over particular time scales) was examined in the Buxto n area (~2 miles south of the Avon project area) for the 2017–2018 project because it is an important consideration in locating the borrow site (USACE/NPS 2015). It is beneficial for borrow sites to be located offshore of the depth of closure location so that they will be independent of the littoral system at decadal time scales for planning. Borrow site locations shoreward of the closure depth position may simply shift sediment within the littoral zone and have minimal impact on the net sand volume change. The steady–state spectral wave model (STWAVE) was used in this study to evaluate the changes of wave patterns before and after dredging of the proposed borrow area. The generalized model for simulating shoreline change (GenCade) was used to evaluate the impact on sediment transport caused by the placement of nourishme nt sand. The GenCade model is a next -generation combination of previous long -term planform evolution of beach models GENESIS (GENEralized Model for Simulating Shoreline) and Cascade. GenCade is a regional model for calculating coastal sediment transport, morphology change, and sand bypassing at inlets and engineered structures. Coastal Science & Engineering Littoral Processes [2525–Appendix D] Avon Village, Dare County, North Carolina 49 Both models are developed and approved by the USACE and have been widely used by coastal engineers and community planners in predicting the behavior of shorelines and sediment transport. Information on each model is available in USACE (2001), Hanson and Kraus (1989), Larson et al (2006), and Frey et al (2012). 3.1 Wave Climate Offshore wave information is typically obtained from a wave gauge or a global/regional scale wave hindcast or forecast. Nearshore wave information is required for littoral processes analysis and for the design of almost all coastal engineering projects. Waves drive sediment transport and nearshore currents, induce wave setup and runup, excite harbor osc illations, and impact coastal structures. The longshore and cross-shore gradients in wave height and direction can be as important as the magnitude of these para meters for some coastal design criteria . Two types of wave stations are available offshore of the study area. One is a real-time wave buoy at Diamond Shoals located ~19 miles offshore of Avon with 18 years of wave records from 2003 to 2020, and the other is a hindcast wave station located ~11 miles offshore with 40 years of records from 1980 to 20 19. 3.1.1 Real-Time Wave Buoy – Station 41025 Station 41025 at Diamond Shoals (NC), owned and maintained by the National Data Buoy Center (NDBC), appears to be the closest real-time wave buoy to the Avon project site. The station is located at 35.010 N 75.454 W, ~15 miles southeast of Cape Hatteras (Fig 3.1). The water depth at the station is ~160 ft, and the watch circle radius is 122 yards . This station has recorded wind and wave data since 2003; however, there were no wave direction records until 20 12. Desiring 8760 hourly records for a typical year, there are four years (ie – 2011, 2012, 2013, and 2019) when actual records are less than 65 percent of expected records. In addition, for 2011, March, April, and June have nearly full records; for 2012 and 2013, no month has nearly full records; and for 2019, July and August have nearly full records. Detailed description of the station and the collected data are located at NDBC’s website (https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/adcp_data.php?station=41025 ). The wave height, dominant period, and direction analyses based on available data are listed in Table 3.1. It shows that June, July, and August have the lowest wave heights compared to other months. Coastal Science & Engineering Littoral Processes [2525–Appendix D] Avon Village, Dare County, North Carolina 50 FIGURE 3.1. Station 41025 at Diamond Shoals (NC), owned and maintained by the National Data Buoy Center (NDBC), appears to be the closest real-time wave buoy to the Avon project site. The station is located at 35.010° N 75.454° W, ~15 miles directly offshore of Cape Hatteras (NC) and ~19 miles from Avon in water depth of ~160 ft. The hindcast wave station from the USACE’s Wave Information Studies (WIS) Station 63230 is located at 35.35° N and 75.33° W, ~11 miles southeast of Avon in water depth of ~60 ft. TABLE 3.1. Monthly average wave climate from 2003 through 2020 at NDBC wave buoy station 41025 at Diamond Shoals (NC). [Source: NDBC] Wave direction uses meteorological convention. A direction of 0° corresponds to a wave arriving from True North. Similarly, a direction of 90° corresponds to a wave from due east. Wave direction records are available only for the period after 2012 at this station. Four years (2011, 2012, 2013, and 2019) have less than 65% of expected records. 18-Year Record (2003–2020) at Diamond Shoals Wave Height (ft) Dominant Wave Period (s) Wave Direction (°) January 5.91 7.96 119 February 6.00 7.93 127 March 6.27 8.59 121 April 5.74 8.04 113 May 4.82 7.60 130 June 3.94 7.27 145 July 3.94 7.05 155 August 3.58 7.75 135 September 5.54 9.19 104 October 5.15 8.45 100 November 5.64 8.28 102 December 5.68 8.03 116 Average 5.18 8.01 122 Coastal Science & Engineering Littoral Processes [2525–Appendix D] Avon Village, Dare County, North Carolina 51 FIGURE 3.2. The monthly average wave climate from 2003–2020 at NDBC Wave Buoy Station 41025 at Diamond Shoals (NC) near Avon compared with the wave climate at the USACE Field Research Facility at Duck (NC). The criteria for safe dredging apply to hopper-dredge and suction-cutterhead dredge operations are generally in waves less than 5 feet per guidance by dredging contractors and CSE’s project experience (USACE 2010). The graph shows that average monthly wave height exceeds 5 feet from September to April in the proposed project area. Calmest conditions occur in June and July when average wave heights are less than 4 feet. Coastal Science & Engineering Littoral Processes [2525–Appendix D] Avon Village, Dare County, North Carolina 52 3.1.2 Wave Information Studies – Station 63230 The Wave Information Studies (WIS) is a project sponsored by the US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) that generates consistent, hourly, long -term (20+ years) wave climatology along all US coastlines, including the Great Lakes and US island territories. Unlike a forecast, a wave hindcast predicts past wave conditions using a computer model and observ ed wind fields. By using value- added wind fields, which combine ground and satellite wind observations, hindcasted wave information is generally of higher accuracy than forecast wave conditions and is o ften representative of observed wave conditions. Hindcast data available from each site include hourly wind speed, wind direction, bulk wave parameters (significant wave height, period, and direction), as well as discrete directional wave spectra at 1 - to 3-hour intervals. WIS wave direction uses meteorological convention: a direction of 0° corresponds to a wave arriving from true n orth. Similarly, a direction of 90° corresponds to a wave from due east. The closest WIS station to the project site is station 63230. It is located ~10.5 miles southeast of Avon at 35.25° N and –75.33° W in water depth of ~60 ft (see Fig 3.1 for location). This station has hindcast data for 40 years between 1980 and 2019. Figure 3.3 is a polar histogram of the frequency of occurrence of wave heights and directions based on the 40-year record. The shoreline azimuth is 10° due north, marked by a solid black line in Figure 3.3. Table 3.2 lists the percentage of occurrence of wave height and period by direction . Most waves (79.8 percent) are from the northeast to the south (45°–180°), but the northerly waves are generally larger than those from other directions. Waves coming from the 45° band from the east-northeast, east, east-southeast to the southeast (ie – 67.5° to 135° band) occur 45.9 percent of the time, and waves comin g from east-northeast and southeast have the highest occurrence of 12.4 percent and 12.1 percent (respectively) compared to the other directions. The series of graphics in Figure 3.4 shows the monthly polar histogram s of wave directions and wave heights. In late spring and summer months between May and August, waves are mainly from the southeast with most wave heights smaller than 1 m (~3 ft), and the rest of the year waves are mainly from northeast to east with most wave heights between 1 and 2 m (~3 and ~6 ft). Coastal Science & Engineering Littoral Processes [2525–Appendix D] Avon Village, Dare County, North Carolina 53 TABLE 3.2. Percentage of occurrence of wave directions in 16 bands with 22.5° increment, associated wave heights (in feet), and wave periods (seconds). Note: The shoreline azimuth of the Avon project area is ~10° from true north. Wave direction uses meteorological convention. A direction of 0° corresponds to a wave arriving from true north. Similarly, a direction of 90° corresponds to a wave from due east. Direction from °True 40-Year Record (1980–2019) at WIS 63230 Percentage of Occurrence (%) Mean Wave Height (ft) Mean Wave Period (s) 0 ± 11.25 2.4 5.05 5.4 22.5 ± 11.25 6.7 5.25 5.9 45 ± 11.25 10.9 5.41 6.4 67.5 ± 11.25 12.4 5.02 6.9 90 ± 11.25 10.7 4.10 7.0 112.5 ± 11.25 10.7 3.58 6.9 135 ± 11.25 12.1 3.64 6.7 157 ± 11.25 11.7 4.04 6.0 180 ± 11.25 11.2 4.36 5.6 202.5 ± 11.25 6.8 4.69 5.4 225 ± 11.25 1.7 4.63 5.2 247.5 ± 11.25 0.5 4.63 5.2 270 ± 11.25 0.4 4.69 5.2 292.5 ± 11.25 0.4 4.82 5.2 315 ± 11.25 0.5 4.89 5.1 337.5 ± 11.25 0.9 5.09 5.2 All Directions 100 4.62 5.8 FIGURE 3.3. Wave rose of WIS station 63230 showing the occurrence frequency of wave direction and wave height based on the 40-year record between 1980 and 2019. Avon shoreline azimuth is ~10° from the north as marked by the black solid line in the figure. Coastal Science & Engineering Littoral Processes [2525–Appendix D] Avon Village, Dare County, North Carolina 54 FIGURE 3.4a. January to April — Monthly wave roses of WIS station 63230 showing the frequency of occurrence of wave direction and wave height each month based on the 40-year record between 1980 and 2019. Avon shoreline azimuth is ~10° from the north as marked by the black solid line in the figures. Coastal Science & Engineering Littoral Processes [2525–Appendix D] Avon Village, Dare County, North Carolina 55 FIGURE 3.4b. May to August — Monthly wave roses of WIS station 63230 showing the frequency of occurrence of wave direction and wave height each month based on the 40-year record between 1980 and 2019. Coastal Science & Engineering Littoral Processes [2525–Appendix D] Avon Village, Dare County, North Carolina 56 FIGURE 3.4c. September to December — Monthly wave roses of WIS station 63230 showing the frequency of occurrence of wave direction and wave height each month based on the 40-year record between 1980 and 2019. Coastal Science & Engineering Littoral Processes [2525–Appendix D] Avon Village, Dare County, North Carolina 57 3.2 Wave Modeling 3.2.1 Model Capabilities The purpose of applying nearshore wave transformation models is to quantitatively describe the change in wave parameters (wave height, period, direction, and spectral shape) between the offshore and the nearshore (typically depths of 40 meters (120 ft) or less. In relatively deep water, the wave field is relatively homogeneous on the scale of kilometers . However, in the nearshore, where waves are strongly influenced by variations in bathymetry, water level, and current s, wave parameters may vary significantly on a scale of tens of feet. STWAVE is an easy -to-apply, flexible, robust, half -plane model for nearshore wind/wave growth and propagation (USACE 2001). STWAVE simulates depth-induced wave refraction and shoaling, current-induced refraction and shoaling, depth - and steepness-induced wave breaking, and diffraction. It also replicates parametric wave growth (due to wind input and wave-wave interaction) and white capping that redistribute and dissipate energy in a growing wave field. A wave spectrum is a statistical representation of a wave field. Conceptually, a spectrum is a linear superposition of monochromatic waves that describes wave energy distribution as a function of frequency (one-dimensional spectrum) or frequency and direction (two -dimensional spectrum). The peak period of the spectrum is the reciprocal of the frequency of the peak of the spectrum. The wave height (significant or zero -moment) is equal to four times the square root of the area under the spectrum. STWAVE is based on the assumption that the relative phases of the spectral components are random, and thus phase information is not tracked (ie – it is a phase-averaged model). In practical applications, wave -phase information throughout a model domain is rarely known accurately enough to initiate a phase -resolving model. Typically, wave -phase information is only required to resolve wave-height variations near coastal structures for detailed, near -field reflection and diffraction patterns. Thus, for these situations, a phase -resolving model should be applied. For the proposed Avon nourishment plan (ie – comparison of pre- and post-dredging wave patterns and determination of relative impacts of the proposed project ), STWAVE has proven sufficient (Ekphisutsuntorn et al 2010, Kuang 2010, Kaczkowski & Kana 2012 , USACE/NPS 2015). Coastal Science & Engineering Littoral Processes [2525–Appendix D] Avon Village, Dare County, North Carolina 58 3.2.2 Model Assumptions The typical assumptions made in the STWAVE model are: a) Mild bottom slope and negligible wave reflection. STWAVE is a half-plane model, meaning that wave energy can propagate only from the offshore toward the nearshore (±87.5° from the x-axis of the grid, which is typically the approximate shore-normal direction). Waves reflected from the shoreline or steep bottom features travel in directions outside this half plane and are thus neglected. Forward-scattered waves (eg – waves reflected off a structure but traveling in the +x direction) are also ignored. b) Spatially homogeneous offshore wave conditions. The variation in the wave spectrum along the offshore boundary of a modeling domain is rarely known, and for domains on the order of tens of kilometers, it is expected to be small. Thus, the input spectrum in STWAVE is constant along the offshore boundary. c) Steady-state waves, currents, and winds. STWAVE is formulated as a steady-state model. A steady-state formulation reduces computation time and is appropriate for wave conditions that vary more slowly than the time it takes for waves to transit the computational grid. For wave generation, the steady-state assumption means that the winds have remained steady sufficiently long for the waves to attain fetch-limited or fully developed conditions (the duration of the winds does not limit waves). d) Linear refraction and shoaling. STWAVE incorporates only linear wave refraction and shoaling, thus does not represent wave asymmetry. Model accuracy is therefore reduced (wave heights are underestimated) at large Ursell numbers. e) Depth-uniform current. The wave-current interaction in the model is based on a current that is constant through the water column. If strong vertical gradients in the current occur, their modification of refraction and shoaling is not represented in the model. For most applications, three-dimensional current fields are not available. f) Bottom friction is neglected. The significance of bottom friction on wave dissipation has been a topic of debate in wave-modeling literature. Bottom friction has often been applied as a tuning coefficient to bring model results into alignment with measurements. Although bottom friction is easy to apply in a wave model, determining the proper friction coefficients is difficult. Also, propagation distances in a nearshore model are relatively short (tens of kilometers), so that the cumulative bottom friction dissipation is negligible. For these reasons, bottom friction is neglected in STWAVE. g) Linear radiation stress. Radiation stress is calculated based on linear wave theory. The governing equations and other aspects of the model can be found in the USACE’s (2001) technical report. Coastal Science & Engineering Littoral Processes [2525–Appendix D] Avon Village, Dare County, North Carolina 59 3.3 Shoreline Evolution Modeling G enCade was used in this study to evaluate longshore sediment transport during va rious stage s of the design life following the proposed beach renourishment project . Results we re used to evaluate the impact of the proposed renourishment and borrow -area dredging on longshore transport at the beach. GenCade combines the engineering power of GENESIS and the regional processes capability of the Cascade model. It calculates shoreline change, wave -induced longshore sand transport, and morphology change at inlets on a local to regional scale and can be applied as a planning or engineering too l. Both STWAVE and GenCade are operated within the Surface -water Modeling System (SMS) interface, bringing the functionality of a georeferenced environment together with accessibility to other USACE numerical models. It provides a rapid assessment of mul tiple engineering alternatives in a robust , self-contained operating platform. As such, it serves as an economically viable application for shoreline change analysis. Predicting long -term shoreline change plays a vital role in planning and manag ing coastal zones and regional sediment management. Shoreline change is driven not only by natural processes such as wave- and current-induced sediment transport but by engineering activities such as beach nourishment and the placement of coastal structures. GenCade calculates shoreline change, wave-induced longshore sand transport, and morphology change along open coasts and at inlets on a local to regional scale. The key module used in GenCade for this study is GENESIS. GENESIS is designed to simulate long-term shoreline changes at coastal engineering sites resulting from spatial and temporal differences in longshore sediment transport (Hanson & Kraus 1989). The longshore extent of the modeled reach can range from <1 mile to 50 miles, and simulation periods can range from 1 month to 10 years. The shoreline evolution portion of the numerical modeling system is based on one-line theory, which assumes that the beach profile shape remains unchanged. This allows shoreline change to be described uniquely in terms of translating a single point on the profile. The 0 ft NAVD contour was used as the shoreline for this study . The structure of GENESIS was originally developed by Hanson (1987) in a joint research effort between the University of Lund (Sweden) and the Coast al Engineering Research Center (CERC), US Army Engineer Waterways Experiment Station (WES). It has been tested, revised , and upgraded since it was developed and is widely used by coastal engineering and planning communities for predicting the behavior of shorelines and long shore transport. Project sites include stretches of coast in the United States such as Alaska, California, Louisiana, New Jersey, New York, Texas, Florida , and the Carolinas. Additionally, there are applications along the coastlines outside of the United States in countries such as Sweden, Japan, Thailand , and China Coastal Science & Engineering Littoral Processes [2525–Appendix D] Avon Village, Dare County, North Carolina 60 (Horikawa & Hattori 1987, Hanson et al 1989, Beumel & Beachler 1994, Bodge et al 1996, Ebersole et al 1996, ERDC 2005, Ravens & Sitanggang 2007, ACRE 2008, Juh 2008, Ekphis utsuntorn et al 2010, Kuang 2010 , Kaczkowski & Kana 2012 , USACE/NPS 2015). The GENESIS model (Hanson & Kraus 1989) is the primary numerical model of beach nourishment planform evolution and was introduced by Dr. Robert Dean of the University of Florida in his textbook , Beach Nourishment, Theory and Practice (2002). It has been described as “a must for nourishment designers and a starting point for coastal scientist s interested in nourishment performance” (reviewed by Marcel Stive, Chair of Coastal Engineer ing, Delft University of Technology). Several project examples using this model are analyzed in th is book. As concluded by Dean (2002) and also addressed in numerous articles in the coastal engineering literature, several key factors should be take n into consideration to have a successful application of the model . They are listed below.  Representative wave data or reliable hindcasts are available.  Historical shoreline position and the longshore distribution of volume changes for substantial periods are available.  Proper calibration and verification of the model.  Appropriate model setup, including domain coverage, grid size , and actual bathymetry.  An external wave transformation model capable of transforming the wave data from offshore to the reference poi nt as required by the GENESIS model. When the GENESIS model was used for the proposed Avon project, the above-listed key factors were satisfied , except there was no historical shoreline position for model calibration or verification. Historic annual erosi on rates determined from the previous sections of this report were used to calibrate the se diment-transport model. Consequently, the model results were not used to evaluate shoreline evolution, but rather the relative impact of the proposed project on longshore sediment transport . The internal wave -transformation model within GENESIS was used in this study to mathematically simulate wave propagation from the reference point to the breaking point and to the beach. Th is internal model determined the break ing wave characteristics used to calculate the actual longshore sediment transport. Coastal Science & Engineering Littoral Processes [2525–Appendix D] Avon Village, Dare County, North Carolina 61 I n the following sections, the details of model setup, application s for beach nourishment design templates , and the impact of the proposed dredging and nourish ment will be discussed. The conclusions of the engineering study will be provided after the discus sion. A brief outline of each section is listed below:  Section 3.4 STWAVE and GenCade model setup, including wave climate analysis, model domain setup, bathymetry a pplication, and determination of model parameters  Section 3.5 STWAVE model results of pre- and post- dredging scenarios  Section 3.6 GenCade model calibration and evaluation on sediment transport rates  Section 3.7 GenCade model results to evaluate the impact of proposed nourishment and borrow area dredging on longshore transport at the beach  Section 3.8 Conclusions 3.4 Model Setup The task of model setup includes determining the computational domain, building up the model grid, designating model parame ters, and generating input data files. Input data of a typical STWAVE model and a GenCade model include the wave field at the offshore boundary (wave height, period, and direction), bathymetry over the model domain, initial shoreline position, measured shoreline position and sediment transport rates for calibration purposes (if applicable), and coastal engineering activities (coastal structure positions or beach fill characteristics if applicable). The STWAVE model output includes the wave field over the computational domain, and the GenCade model output includes the shoreline position and longshore transport rates at user - specified time steps. Coastal Science & Engineering Littoral Processes [2525–Appendix D] Avon Village, Dare County, North Carolina 62 3.4.1 STWAVE Model Grid As discussed in previous sections, the proposed project area starts from station 1550+00 and extends southward to station 1682+00, covering 2.5 miles (13,200 ft) from north to south. A STWAVE grid extends about 2 miles beyond the north boundary and ~1.6 miles beyond the south boundary of the project site. Extensions of the model domain be yond the project area ensure that possible edge effects from the model boundary do not influence results in the area of interest. Model sensitivity testing in the previous study has determined that such extents ensure proper model function without edge ef fects (USACE/NPS 2015). The STWAVE model grid was also extended seaward from the shoreline to a distance of about 3 .8 miles. The seaward boundary is parallel to the general shor eline trend with an azimuth of 10° from due north (Fig 3.5). This seaward boundary is defined as the y-axis of the STWAVE model, and the axis perpendicular to the y -axis pointing in the shoreline direction is denoted as the x -axis. The two axes are shown as thick black lines in Figure 3.5. The south and onshore boundaries are marked with red lines in the same graphic. The grid encompasses both the project area and the identified borrow area. STWAVE operated within the Surface -water Modeling System (SMS) interface requires the model to be set up in metric units. For this study, the grid origin is at 934500 meters (m) East and 186200 m North in North American Datum 1983 State Plane (NAD’83) North Carolina Zone 3200, and the grid dimensions are 6,600 by 10,000 m in the x and y directions (respectively). The cell size is 100 m in both directions. 3.4.2 GenCade Model Grid The GenCade model boundary is parallel to the y -axis of the STWAVE grid and is denoted by a green line with an arrow pointing from north to south in Figure 3.5. The grid origin is at 3045900 ft East and 616700 ft North (NAD’83), and the grid length is 35,000 ft. Ideally, the GenCade model boundary should not only cover the project area , but should also extend some distance beyond the north and south ends of the project to eliminate any possible boundary effects and to evaluate the shoreline performance of adjacent beaches. CSE surveyed ~1 mile north and south of the project limits in July 2020, and the data provide sufficient coverage for the model application in this study. Coastal Science & Engineering Littoral Processes [2525–Appendix D] Avon Village, Dare County, North Carolina 63 FIGURE 3.5. STWAVE and GenCade model boundaries and grid coverage. y E 934500 m N 186200 m x Coastal Science & Engineering Littoral Processes [2525–Appendix D] Avon Village, Dare County, North Carolina 64 3.4.3 Model Grid Size Generally speaking, if the grid cell size is smaller, the shoreline simulation model results are more detailed. However, reducing the grid size increases the STWAVE compu tation time. Model sensitivity tests in the previous study with different spatial resolutions ranging from 50 ft to 500 ft have been conducted (USACE/NPS 2015), and the optimum grid size determined for this study is 100 m for STWAVE and 100 ft for GenCade models. [Note: STWAVE requires all numbers in metric , and GenCade requires in feet.] 3.4.4 Model Bathymetry The setup of the STWAVE and G enCade models requires applying offshore and nearshore data to develop the bathymetry and topography in the model domain. Relative elevations on different vertical datums published by NOAA’s National Ocean Service Tides and Currents at an adjacent site at Cape Hatteras Fishing Pier are illustrated in Figure 2.2. A detailed description of CSE’s bathymetric data collection methods and data analys es is presented in Section 2. The scatter data used in this study and shown in Figure 3.6 include: (1) CSE’s beach condition survey from the foredunes to deep water beyond –30 ft NAVD at 500-ft intervals in July 2020. (2) CSE’s bathymetric survey in an offshore sand search area in July 2020. (3) NOAA Digital Elevation Model (DEM) dated 2012 with a uniform horizontal resolution of 100 feet in the areas outside of CSE’s survey coverage. The shoreline used in this study is defined as the 0 -m contour line relative to the NAVD 88 datum extracted from the July 2020 beach condition survey. Figure 3.5 shows the locations of the proposed excavations, with Area 1 to 10 ft and Area 2 to 6 ft below the existing grade in the offshore borrow area. Grid origin is consistent across all models. Figure 3.7 shows the bathymetry ac ross the grid area after interpolation across the model domain before dredging. The after-dredging scatter data with greater depths in the proposed excavation areas are visible in Figure 3.8, with Figure 3.9 showing the grid bathymetry after interpolation across the model domain. For all, water depth along the seaward boundary is relatively uniform around 17 m. This is a conservative scenario for impact analysis, as it explores over 3.4 million cubic yards of sand excavation versus the proposed project's 1 million. Coastal Science & Engineering Littoral Processes [2525–Appendix D] Avon Village, Dare County, North Carolina 65 FIGURE 3.6. Combined bathymetric data collected by CSE in July 2020 and the NOAA Digital Elevation Model (DEM) with a horizontal resolution of 100 feet (dated 2012). See Figure 3.5 for model origins, “x” and “y” axes, and coverage. Coastal Science & Engineering Littoral Processes [2525–Appendix D] Avon Village, Dare County, North Carolina 66 FIGURE 3.7. Model coverage and interpolated bathymetry using the scatter data in Figure 3.6 for the before dredging condition. See Figure 3.5 for model origins, “x” and “y” axes, and coverage. Coastal Science & Engineering Littoral Processes [2525–Appendix D] Avon Village, Dare County, North Carolina 67 FIGURE 3.8. Combined bathymetric data collected by CSE in July 2020 and the NOAA Digital Elevation Model (DEM) with a horizontal resolution of 100 feet (dated 2012). The elevations in the offshore borrow area reflect the after-dredging condition after the 10-ft excavation before the existing grade. See Figure 3.5 for model origins, “x” and “y” axes, and coverage. Coastal Science & Engineering Littoral Processes [2525–Appendix D] Avon Village, Dare County, North Carolina 68 FIGURE 3.9. Model coverage and interpolated bathymetry using the scatter data in Figure 3.8 for the after dredging condition. See Figure 3.5 for model origins, “x” and “y” axes, and coverage. Coastal Science & Engineering Littoral Processes [2525–Appendix D] Avon Village, Dare County, North Carolina 69 3.4.5 Wave Climate Analysis Obtaining satisfactory wave data is a necessary and crucial task in preparing and executing wave and shoreline-evolution models. There are no site -specific, long-term wave records for the Avon project area, but there are at least two wave data sources in the vicinity of the site as discussed in the previous sections (ie – NDBC wave buoy 41025 and the WIS station 63230; see Figure 3.1 for their locations). Although the NDBC wave buoy has real-time measurements, this station was not used because it is located ~19 miles from Avon to the southeast. The WIS station 63230 is located ~11 miles southeast of Avon and has 40 years of hindcast data between 1980 and 2019. This station was chosen because of the long -term wave records, and the net transport generated under the wave climate of this station agreed with historical observations (USACE/NPS 2015). 3.4.6 Model Parameters The parameters used in the GENESIS model include sand and beach data and longshore sand transport calibration coefficients. The sand and beach data are determined from the analysis in the geotechnical study (CSE 2021) and are listed below:  Effective grain size = 0.289 mm  Average berm height = 7 ft NAVD  Closure depth = –24 ft NAVD Volumetric erosion studies at the project area show tha t long-term average annual erosion rates are estimated to be 140,000 cy/yr as discussed in Section 2.5.2 . The transport parameters K 1 and K2 required in the model were adjusted within the recommended range to obtain the best fit of simulated volumetric transport rate with historical data. 3.5 STWAVE Model Results The borrow area for this project has an average depth of ~40 ft NAVD and a total area of ~250 acres. It is located considerably outside the depth limits of significant sediment motion of the active surf zone. Sediment removal from the borrow sites will result in offshore depressions , possibly 6-10 ft below the present bottom. To determine if the tot al removal of the sediment from the borrow sites would impact the concentration of longshore wave energy and littoral sediment transport potential, STWAVE was used to simulate wave transformation over the borrow sites by comparing conditions before and after dredging. The STWAVE model results for the before-dredging and after-dredging scenarios are shown in Figures 3.10 and 3.11 for comparison . Coastal Science & Engineering Littoral Processes [2525–Appendix D] Avon Village, Dare County, North Carolina 70 FIGURE 3.10. STWAVE simulated wave heights and directions for before-dredging scenario. The vertical lines represent the cross-sections in y direction that are analyzed in Figure 3.12. Lines top to bottom illustrate y-axis distance from origin of 100 m, 1000 m, 1500 m, 1700 m, 1900 m, 2100 m, 2300 m, 2500 m, 2700 m, 2900 m, 3100 m, 3300 m, 3500 m, 3700 m, 4000 m, 4500 m, 5000 m, 6000 m, 8000 m, and 9900 m. The proposed borrow area is located approximately 1700 to 3600 m from the origin, and the center of the borrow area is located around 2600 m from the origin. The arrows represent the wave directions. Coastal Science & Engineering Littoral Processes [2525–Appendix D] Avon Village, Dare County, North Carolina 71 FIGURE 3.11. STWAVE simulated wave heights and directions for after-dredging scenario. Coastal Science & Engineering Littoral Processes [2525–Appendix D] Avon Village, Dare County, North Carolina 72 To evaluate wave pattern changes before and after dredging, 20 horizontal cross-sections were chosen over the computational domain. These cross-sections effectively cover the study area , including the designated borrow area. Wave heights across horizontal cross -sections are plotted in a series of graphics in Figure 3.12. Some key coordinates, dimensions, and relative distance to the model origins are listed below.  STWAVE Model Origin: x0 = 934500 m, y0 = 186200 m  STWAVE Grid Length in “x” Direction equals: 6,600 m  STWAVE Grid Length in “y” Direction equals: 10,000 m  Project Northernmost Limit to STWAVE Origin: y = ~3,300 m  Project Southernmost Limit to STWAVE Origin: y = ~7,300 m  Borrow Area to Model Origin: 1,700 to 3,600 m in the “y” direction and 1,300–3,200 m in the “x” direction In Figure 3.1 2, the left side of the x -axis represents onshore, and the right side of the x-axis represents offshore. The first four and the last six plots in this graphic (ie – y-distance to origin = 100 to 1,700 m and 4,000 to 9,900 m) show almost no difference in wave height before and after dredging. The intermediate ten plots (ie – y-distance to origin = 1,900 to 3,600 m) show minor differences in wave height between these two scenario s. This is where the proposed borrow area is located. Since the project area “y” distance to origin is between 3,300 and 7,300 m, the results indicate that borrow-area dredging has no or negligible impact on the wave field in the offshore area. Wave height between the two scenarios became more noticeable where the borrow area is located (ie – y-distance to origin = 1,700 to 3,600 m and x-distance to origin = 1,300 to 3,200 m ), but the greatest difference was less than 10 percent of the height. In addition, the wave height difference diminishes toward the shore. Coastal Science & Engineering Littoral Processes [2525–Appendix D] Avon Village, Dare County, North Carolina 73 FIGURE 3.12. STWAVE simulated wave height comparisons at different horizontal cross-sections parallel to the “x” axis (ie – with constant distance to the origin in the “y” direction) as illustrated in Figure 3.10. “0” is the offshore model boundary and shoreline is at the left side of the graph where waves break and diminish. Coastal Science & Engineering Littoral Processes [2525–Appendix D] Avon Village, Dare County, North Carolina 74 FIGURE 3.12(continued). STWAVE simulated wave height comparisons at different horizontal cross- sections parallel to the “x” axis (ie – with constant distance to the origin in the “y” direction) as illustrated in Figure 3.10. “0” is the offshore model boundary and shoreline is at the left side of the graph where waves break and diminish. Coastal Science & Engineering Littoral Processes [2525–Appendix D] Avon Village, Dare County, North Carolina 75 FIGURE 3.12(continued). STWAVE simulated wave height comparisons at different horizontal cross- sections parallel to the “x” axis (ie – with constant distance to the origin in the “y” direction) as illustrated in Figure 3.10. “0” is the offshore model boundary and shoreline is at the left side of the graph where waves break and diminish. Coastal Science & Engineering Littoral Processes [2525–Appendix D] Avon Village, Dare County, North Carolina 76 FIGURE 3.12(continued). STWAVE simulated wave height comparisons at different horizontal cross- sections parallel to the “x” axis (ie – with constant distance to the origin in the “y” direction) as illustrated in Figure 3.10. “0” is the offshore model boundary and shoreline is at the left side of the graph where waves break and diminish. Coastal Science & Engineering Littoral Processes [2525–Appendix D] Avon Village, Dare County, North Carolina 77 FIGURE 3.12(continued). STWAVE simulated wave height comparisons at different horizontal cross- sections parallel to the “x” axis (ie – with constant distance to the origin in the “y” direction) as illustrated in Figure 3.10. “0” is the offshore model boundary and shoreline is at the left side of the graph where waves break and diminish. Coastal Science & Engineering Littoral Processes [2525–Appendix D] Avon Village, Dare County, North Carolina 78 In conclusion, the STWAVE model results indicate that borrow -area dredging will not impact the wave patterns along the project beach; the impact will be concentrated in the dredged area and its immediately vicinity. The most significant increase will be ~10 percent of the local wave height (expected to occur in the center of the borrow area ). The pre-project depth in the borrow area is 10–35 ft deeper than the estimated DOC (ie -24 ft NAVD), and the results show that the proposed maximum excavation of 6ft to 10 ft will not significantly alter wave patterns at the shore and will only locally modify waves within the immediate borrow area. The results also show that the location of the borrow area will not significantly alter sand transport processes and rates over the excavation area, and will not impede or modify normal onshore sand transport. 3.6 GenCade Model Calibration Proper application of GenCade requires calibration by adjusting the various model parameters until it can reasonably reproduce historical shoreline change or longshore sediment transport rates over a given time interval. The key module of GenCade is GENESIS which was calibrated and verified in the study for an adjacent project site in Buxton . In that study, the simulated rates for total volumetric erosion and net longshore sediment transport were compared with historical erosion rates (USAC/NPS 2015). Because the proposed Avon project area does not have more than two sets of complete survey data for the calibration procedure, the net longshore sediment transport rates and total volumetric erosion rates simulated were used to compare with the estimated historical erosion rates of 140,000 cy/yr (as discussed in Section 2.5 of this report). Figure 3.13 shows calculated average annual net longshore sediment transport rates along the modeled shoreline over a specific 3-year period between 2017 and 2019. Moving from left to right along the horizontal axis represents the shoreline from north to south, and p ositive transport rates denote net sand movement to the south. Some key reference distances are listed below: Project Northernmost Limit (sta 1550+00) to GenCade Origin: ~13,200 ft Project Southernmost Limit (sta 1862+00) to GenCade Origin: ~26,400 ft Figure 3.13 shows that the sediment transport rate varie s along the shoreline and is southerly, which is consistent with the historical trend of sediment movement and spit accretion in this area. Transport rates increase markedly along certain sections south of the Avon Pier . This increasing transport rate explains the higher erosion observed in that area. The simulated average annual net transport rate for the project area was ~140,400 cy. This average annual rate is consistent with the adopted historical net annual erosion rate of 140,000 cy/yr. Coastal Science & Engineering Littoral Processes [2525–Appendix D] Avon Village, Dare County, North Carolina 79 FIGURE 3.13. Average annual longshore net sediment transport rates over 3-year period. Positive rates denote net sand movement to the south. In conclusion, the net longshore sediment transport rate predicted by the GenCade model agrees closely with the estimated volumetric loss rates of ~140,000 cy/yr along the proposed Avon project area. Due to the lack of historical shoreline measurements for this area, the model cannot be further calibrated for shoreline evolution. Because the model will be primarily used to evaluate the impact of the proposed nourishment and offshore borrow area dredging on sediment transport rates, shoreline position is not expected to hinder the comparative results . 3.7 GenCade Model Results The proposed project calls for pumping a maximum of 1 million cubic yards of beach quality sand from the designated offshore borrow area onto 13,200 linear feet of ocean beach. The designed berm height is 7 ft NAVD, and the average fill density is ~76 cy/ft. Fill densities will vary from north to south according to the historical erosion rates. The 4,000-ft section north of the Avon Pier is scheduled to receive an average of 43 cy/ft, and the 9,200 -ft section south of the Avon Pier is scheduled to receive an average of 90 cy/ft during nourishment. GenCade was used to determine if nourishment on the beach and the removal of the sediment from the proposed borrow sites would impact longshore sediment transport potential . These results were compared for pre- and post-project conditions . Coastal Science & Engineering Littoral Processes [2525–Appendix D] Avon Village, Dare County, North Carolina 80 FIGURE 3.14. Comparison of annual net longshore sediment transport rates before and after the proposed renourishment project. Net sediment transport rate before and after the project are plotted in Figure 3.14. The average annual net transport rate before the project for the shoreline segment between stations 1550+00 and 1682+00 (or a distance to G enCade origin between ~13,200 ft and ~26,300 ft) was ~140,400 cy/yr; the rate was ~140,000 cy/yr after the project. These rates are a few hundred yards different before and after the project. It indicates that nourishment and borrow area dredging will cause negligible changes in the net longshore sediment transport rate. The rates will ch ange locally where the beach fill is conducted, but there will be no changes approximately 0.5 mile north or south of the project area. The series of images in Figure 3.15 illustrates the shoreline position over a three -year period after completion of the proposed Avon nourishment. Red lines represent the initial shoreline before nourishment, and green lines represent the shoreline positions at specific times after the project, as indicated on the top of the images. At the end of the three -year period, the shoreline is expected to be seaward of the initial shoreline in most of the sections, signifying a substantial amount of nourishment sand placed along that section of oceanfront would remain along those areas. Coastal Science & Engineering Littoral Processes [2525–Appendix D] Avon Village, Dare County, North Carolina 81 FIGURE 3.15. Shoreline position at 0 ft NAVD contour before nourishment (red) and its evolution (green) over a three-year period after the proposed 1 million cubic yard project. Red lines represent the initial shoreline, and green lines represent the shoreline at specific intervals after nourishment. In the final image three years post- nourishment, the shoreline is seaward of the initial shoreline for most of its length, signifying a substantial amount of nourishment sand remains. T = 0 Days T = 98 Days T = 365 Days T = 730 Days T = 1095 Days Coastal Science & Engineering Littoral Processes [2525–Appendix D] Avon Village, Dare County, North Carolina 82 3.8 Conclusions STWAVE and GenCade have been widely applied in coastal engineering and planning projects to predict wave field and longshore transport behavior . They were used in this study to simulate wave patterns and longshore sediment transport rate s before and after the proposed Avon nourishment project. Results were used to evaluate the impact of borrow area dredging and beach fill on wave height and longshore transport rates a long the study area at the Cape Hatteras National Seashore in front of the Avon Village. The STWAVE mode l results indicate that borrow area dredging will not cause any measur able wave pattern changes in the project area, and the impact will be concentrated within the dredged area and its immediately adjacent ocean bottom. The most significant wave height increase will be no greater than 10 percent of the local wave height and is expected to occur in the borrow area. The pre-project depth in the borrow area is 10–30 ft deeper than the estimated DOC in this setting, and therefore well beyond any expected zone of normal exchange of sediment with the beach. T he STWAVE model results show that the proposed excavation s up to 6 ft to 10 ft will have only a minor local impact on waves in the immediate borrow area and negligible impact on waves at the beach . The results also show that sand transport will not be significantly modified over the borrow area and that normal onshore sand transport will continue uninterrupted. The GenCade model was calibrated using long-term historical erosion rates of 140,000 cy/yr. The calibrated model results yielded ~140,400 cy/yr annual net sediment transport rate s, which are in close agreement with the estimated rates. The calibration results show that the model can capture the overall sediment transport pattern and can be used to evaluate the relative changes of sediment transport rates before and after nourishment and offshore borrow -area dredging. The model simulation for potential after -project longshore transport along two s horeline segments resulted in only minor changes comp ared to the before -project condition (of the order of hundreds of cubic yards). The model results indicate that nourishment and borrow area dredging will cause negligible changes in the longshore sediment transport rate. The rate will change locally where beach fill is conducted, but there will be no changes ~0.5 mile north or south of the fill area. Coastal Science & Engineering Littoral Processes [2525–Appendix D] Avon Village, Dare County, North Carolina 83 REFERENCES ACRE. 2008. Analysis of coastal processes for the Chatham south coastal between Mill Creek and Bucks Creek. 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