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HomeMy WebLinkAbout1985 Land Use Plan Update-1985DCM COPY DCM COPY lease do not remove!!!!! Division of Coastal Management town of NAGS. HEAD p o r t h c a r o f i n a 198.5 LAND USE. PLAN UPDATE The preparation of this report was funded in part through a grant provided by the North Carolina Coastal Management Program, through funds provided by the Coastal Zone Management Act of 1972, as amended, which is administered by the United States Office of Coastal Management, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. 1 1 A 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 NAGS HEAD 1985 LAND USE PLAN Board of Commissioners Donald W. Bryan. Mayor Ronald E. Scott. Mayor Pro Tem Carlton P. Nunemaker III - Jeanne E. Acree Robert W. Muller Former Commissioner Phyllis S. Johnson Former Commissioner T. Richard Harper Plannina Board A. F. Rollins. Chairman Jerry McManus. Vice Chairman Jennifer Frost Robert Maher Paul Royston Ward Thompson Plannina and Develooment Staff William E. Collins. Director David M. Ferris. Buildina Inspector M. Edward Harrell. Zoning Administrator Bruce M. Bortz. Code Comoliance Officer Carole Lewallen. Administrative Secretary_ Ronnie E. Ballance. Buildina Inspector Advisor Timothy Beatlev Coastal Resources Collaborative. Ltd. Chapel Hill. north Carolina Adopted by the Naas Head Bord of Commissioners on March S. 1986: and certified by the Coastal Resources Commission on April 4. 1986. ' TABLE OF CONTENTS Chapter 1 Introduction 2 Assessing the Growth and Development Pressures ' in Nags Head 3 Managing Growth in Nags Head ' 4 Shoreline Management and Protection 5 Hurricane and Coastal Storm Hazard Mitigation 6 Traffic and Transportation ' 7 Water Quality 8 Sewer and Water Service ' 9 Economic Development ' 10 3� Housing l 11 Visual and Aesthetic Resources 12 Recreation and Open Space 13 Nags Head Woods 14 Police and Fire Protection 15 Solid Waste 16 Public Participation and Intergovernmental Coordination 17 Policies and Imolementation Methods 18 Land Classification System References Page 1 4 25 35 38 51 57 61 70 72 74 77 79 81 83 85 87 97 101 LIST OF TABLES Pacre 2-1 Permanent Population 5 2-2 Population Projections 6 2-3 Buildout Factors for Unimproved Platted Lots 9 2-4 Buildout Factors for Unimproved Unplatted Parcels 10 2-5 Nags Head Building Activity 15 2-6 Residential and Motel Units 16 2-7 Commercial Building Square Footage 17 2-8 Current Develooment and Estimated Intensities 19 2-9 Future Total Buildout Under 1985 Com_oosition of Land Use 20 2-10 Existing and Projected Water Consumption 21 2-11 Existing and Projected Trash Pick-up 22 2-12 Existing and Projected Square Footage of Impervious Surfaces 23 2-13 Existing and Projected Assessed Value Structures 24 3-1 Acreage Comparison of Scenarios I and II 30 3-2 Effects of Shift to Single Family Residential 30 3-3 Acreage Comparison of Scenarios I and III 31 3-4 Effects of Increase in Commercial and Decrease in Single -Family Residential Acreage 32 3-5 Density Comparisons Between Scenarios I and IV 33 3-6 Effects of Restricting Rate of Future Growth 33 5-1 Assess Value of Real Property Within 300 Feet of the Ocean 44 ii 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 LIST OF TABLES Continued Pace 5-2 Cumulative Summary of Real Property in 300-foot and Flood Hazard Zones 45 5-3 Assessed Value of Real Property At -risk in Incipient Inlets 45 5-4 Public Investment Vulnerable to Storm Damace 46 6-1 Evacuation Analysis 53 6-2 Evacuation Analvsis 54 8-1 Pro)ected Water Consumption at Residential Buildout 63 8-2 Water Distribution System 65 17-1 Interrelationships of Policies 96 iii LIST OF FIGURES 2-1 Maximum Number of Dwelling Units with Total Residential Buildout 8-1 Water Availability iv Page 13 67 LIST OF MAPS Fragile Areas Map Existing Land Use Mao Hazard Area Map Land Classification Map v Page 8 18 40 100 Chapter 1. Introduction: Overview of Nags. Head_ and Land. Use Planning Process The Town of Nags Head is a unique and attractive resort community on the Outer Banks of North Carolina. A number of characteristics make it an attractive place to live or vacation. Among them are its proximity to water and beaches, its abundance of open spaces, its generally low density of development, and the ' overall quality of its natural environment. Nags Head is primarily an ocean -oriented community. The Town is fortunate to have significant natural resources, including the ocean and its beaches, ' the Sound, the complex natural area called the Nags Head Woods (consisting of stable, productive marshland, fresh water ponds and steep migrating and stabilized dunes) and unique geological ' features like Jockey's Ridqe. Nags Head is a recreational wonderland, closely tied to its natural environment. Nags Head has been a quaint village consisting predominantly of single family cottages and a few motels. Family operated businesses and cottage courts made up the commercial sector of Nags Head. These factors contribute to a certain charm, and a slow and 1 relaxing pace of life. The Town has been the annual vacation spot for a countless number of families who make repeat visits from the north. ' Nags Head has been slow to develop when compared to resort and vacation areas along the eastern coast that offer similar amenities 1 (e.g., Myrtle Beach, South Carolina; Ocean City, Maryland). This has partly been a result of the remoteness of the Town. However, like all of the Dare County beach communities, Nags Head is beginning to experience tremendous growth and development ' pressures. As an indication, the permanent population has been growing at an annual rate of well over 10 percent. The most significant growth pressures in the Town are, and will continue to be, generated by seasonal resort development, however. Over two-thirds of Nags Head property owners, for example, are not permanent residents of the Town. ' A 1984 survey of the attitudes of residents and property owners found that most were in agreement that Nags Head should remain the ' family -oriented beach it has been. The survey results also highlighted the high importance placed by residents and non-resident property owners on the quality of the natural environment, including such things as access to beaches and the ' protection of open space in the Town. Yet, the extreme growth pressures which Nags Head is currently feeling indicate that the Town has been "discovered," and that this discovery puts in ' jeopardy many of the features and characteristics that make the Town such an attractive place in which to live and vacation. Furthermore, this growth is creating new and unique problems for the Town, including such problems as effectively dealing with hurricane evacuation and protecting the quality of its water resources, among many others. The local planning requirements of the North Carolina Coastal Area Management program (CAMA) provide the framework in which to ' analyze and project these future growth pressures, identify the problems and concerns they raise, and to identify appropriate policies and actions for dealing with.them. CAMA mandates that coastal localities update their land use plans at least every five years, and what follows in this plan is the result of the updating process. Nags Head is truly at an important juncture and this plan update must provide essential direction and guidance for managing Nags Head's growth, both in the short and long terms. It is important to acknowledge that even if this planning effort was not required under CAMA provisions, the Town would still have ' undertaken it. The Town considers the following CAMA guidelines regarding resource production and management issues not applicable and relevant to Nags Head at this time and will not be discussed in the plan: ' 1. Productive agricultural lands; 2. Existing and potential mineral productive areas; 3. Commercial and recreational fisheries; ' 4. Peat or phosphate mining and industrial impacts on any resource; 5. Energy facility siting and development; and 6. Marina development and floating home development. ' The essential purpose of this plan is to permit Town officials to make the most deliberate and informed decisions as possible about future growth. The plan attempts to comprehensively analyze ' the likely impacts of growth, identify Town goals with respect to these impacts, and present policies and actions to manage this growth consistent with these goals. This plan will be used and ' referenced in future land use decision -making, and in particular by several key sets of local actors: the Board of Commissioners, Planning Board, Zoning Board of Adjustment, and the Town's ' Department of Planning and Development. As well, the Board of Commissioners has appointed a Citizens' Advisory Committee to collect public opinion on planning issues, and to act as liaison between the Board of Commissioners and citizens in the community. The land use planning in Nags Head is a continuous and ongoing process. Numerous land use decisions are made each month. While the following plan represents the codification of Town policies at one point in time. the Town's land use plan is dynamic and evolutionary. Hopefully. this plan provides the basis for understanding the implications of future land use decisions (including failing to take action), and will serve as an overall framework for guiding future decisions by the Town. Some significant ordinances adopted since the 1980 land use Plan are: (1) Nags -Head Village Ordinance. which establishes ' stringent estuarine setbacks: (2) street standards for environmental streets: (3) drainage ordinance; (4) motel, shopping center standards: (5) water tan allocation ordinance; and (6) an ordinance to eliminate multiple curb cuts. Orcgnizat.ion_o* the Plan, The plan begins with a review and analysis of population and development trends in the Town, and the implications of this Growth (e.g.. increasing service demands, impacts on environmental systems, etc.; Chapter 2). Chapter 3 examines the different dimensions of growth which can be modified to effect local Goals. and the alternative approaches to growth management which might be ' used to accomplish this. This chapter also provides specific examples of how the impacts of growth can be altered through growth management intervention. ' Chapters 4 through 16 provide specific discussions of particular substantive policy areas of relevance in Nags Herd. These chapters discuss sub2ects such as water quality. shorelines management and protection, housing, traffic and transportation, hurricane and coastal storm hazard mitigation, sewer and water service, economic development and others. Each of these chanters ' is structured in the same way, beginning with a discussion of problems and issues. the delineation of a community Goal, and finally the preparation of a fairly detailed .yet of land use Policies to advance the goal. ' Chapter 17 ("Policies and implementation ,`Methods") analyzes the policies identified in chapters 4 through 16 for their ability ' to advance a number of community Goals simultaneously. From this analysis, a list of more specific implementation activities is prepared. Finally, Chapter 18 discusses the Town's land ' clnssification system. Chapter 2. Assessing the Growth and Development Pressures In Nags Head ' Introduction Nags Head is growing and changing, and the primary purpose of this plan is to manage and guide these forces so that important ' values are protected and goals advanced. This chapter establishes the baseline assumptions concerning future growth and provides an initial starting point for identifying local growth -related problem ' areas, the magnitude of these problems, and the urgency with which they need to be addressed. The theme of this chapter is that the forces of growth and change are being seen in Nags Head as they ' have never been seen before, and that these forces will have tremendous implications for everything from water quality to hurricane evacuation. This chapter begins by looking at statistics concerning the growth of the permanent population of the Town. It goes on to analyze the availability of land for future development, current development and building trends, and projects peak levels of development and population growth under total permissible buildout. Finally, to illustrate the impacts of future growth in the Town, ' the increase in demand for such services as water consumption and solid waste disposal, and the degree of negative side effects such as impervious surfaces are projected. ' Permanent Population Because Nags Head was incorporated in 1961, census data is only available for 1970 and 1980. In 1970 there were only 414 permanent residents in the Town (See Table 2-1). By 1980 this population had more than doubled, and in the four years between 1980 and July 1, 1984, the permanent population is estimated to have grown an additional 36%. Estimates of permanent population for Nags Head beyond 1984 have not yet become available from the North Carolina Office of State Budget and Management. Some general conclusions can be drawn from the age class ' differences between the 1970 and 1980 census data. In 1970, approximately 43% of the population was 45 years old, or older, however, in 1980, 53% of the population was 45 years old, or older. ' Future projections of Nags Head's permanent population can be made under different assumptions, using projections for Dare County made by the State. Table 2-2 presents these projections under ' alternative assumptions. Column I provides population projections for Dare County to the year 2010. Column II presents projections of the Nags Head population based upon the proportion of the County population that it constituted in 1980. It represents the most ' conservative projection. Column III calculates these projections assuming that Nags Head's share of the County population increases to 10:. Column IV computes the projection based upon the percentage increase between 1970 and 1980, or 146%. Because of the recent levels at which Dare County and the Dare beach communities ' have grown in recent years, the 146% projection assumption appears most reasonable. Under this methodology, the Town will contain over 6,000 permanent residents by the year 2000 and 15,000 by the year 2010. ' Permanent population does not, however, capture the real growth pressures to be placed on the Town of Nags Head. Rather, Nags Head ' is a resort community, which experiences dramatic increases in seasonal population during the summer months. The problems of growth with which the Town must wrestle in the future are generated by this component of the population, and the residential and commercial development produced to accommodate it. These premises are better elucidated with other data discussed below. Table 2-1. Permanent Population, Dare County and Naqs Head ' Year Dare County Nams read 1960 5,935 ' 1970 6,995 (17.9%) 414 1980 13.377 (91. 2%) 1, 080 (14W ' 1982 1,166 (14.3%) 1983 15,327 (14. 6%) 1.330 (14.1 %) 1984 1,395 (4.9%) INote: Percentage increase from prior year shown in parentheses. Table 2-2. Permanent Population Projections for Nass Head_ Under Different Assumptions Year Dare County bans Head I II III IV 7.62% IN 146% 1985 16,529 1,260 1,653 1,764 191% 19,521 1,488 1,952 2,509 2000 25,805 1,968 2,580 6,172 2010 32,053 2,444 3,205 15,183 (I) Population estimates for Dare County from North Carolina State Data Center, Office of State Budget and Management. -(II) 7.62i represents the share of the Dare County population that resided in Nags Head in 1980. This alternative projects Nags Head`s future population based upon the Town's population remaining a constant percentage of the County's population. (III) Population estimate based upon the Town of Nags Head's population increasing to 1O% of Dare County's total. (IV) Population estimate based upon 146: population increase observed from 1970 to 1980. This alternative assumes Naas Head will continue to grow by the same percentage that it grew between 1970 and 1980. 6 Land Availability and Potential Development The Town of Nags Head contains approximately 4,600 acres. There existed in May, 1984, approximately 3,928 dwelling units in the Town, with the vast majority in low -density residential uses. Of these total dwelling units, some 3,633 are currently served by on -site septic systems with the remaining 295 units served by packaged treatment plants. Nags Head contains a number of platted lots which have not yet been developed. Specifically, there are 2,592 undeveloped platted lots, of which 1,883 are acceptable for development and connection to a conventional on -site septic system. The remaining 709 undeveloped platted lots include 127 lots that are completely unbuildable due to CAMA and the federal wetlands protection program. The remaining 582 lots are unbuildable with conventional septic systems due to unsuitable soils. These 582 lots may be built upon, however, if alternative methods of wastewater treatment and disposal are used. The fragile areas map on page 8 depicts the location of unsuitable soils and wetlands. The map also ' shows the small surface water supply watershed (AEC) around the Fresh Pond. ' The total number of developed and undeveloped platted lots in Nags Head is 6,520. Of these, the total potential number of dwelling units is 5,811. An additional 582 dwelling units can be built, but located on lots considered unsuitable for the use of conventional septic systems (See Table 2-3). In addition to these lots the Town contains land yet to be Platted. The potential of unplatted parcels can be measured under two scenarios: (1) assuming the use of conventional septic systems at a density of 15,000 square feet per dwelling unit; and (2) assuming ' package wastewater treatment facilities at the maximum density permitted by the Town zoning ordinance. ' As shown in Table 2-4, there are 1,526 acres in the Town of Nags Head which are unplatted, undeveloped, privately owned and subject to development. This acreage does not include Jockey's Ridge State Park or property in the Nags Head Woods owned by the Town or the Nature Conservancy. Nags Head Village (the Epstein tract), which contains 411 acres and is zoned SPD-C, already has an approved master plan allowing 1,798 dwelling units and 900 motel rooms. The remaining unplatted, undeveloped acres, if platted with 15,000 square foot lots, would result in 1,848 dwelling units served by septic systems. ' If development on the unplatted and undeveloped parcels is served by package wastewater treatment facilities, the density of this development would be determined by the Nags Head Zoning Ordinance. One thousand, five hundred and twenty-six acres, including the Epstein tract, are available for development with the use of package facilities. 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" .1 I .... :, . � , : - - � " li�: , -��j ,.,- :�:I-Wic�, ,. , , , ,­v -, �;�I, .'-�;"�.;,..Z,1.1;,�,�,,�.-�:-��� ....'., , ` I-,' - , .-- ,,-.--�, -t-W 04; i Ix I+xI - L� � I W1. 'Ile z I : % L: .. - : -, � , �6 � 'n �� ., I It .� -- R I �- - 11� - - L , L : � I � I... a " f i;:� L "�,�., 7, . L . ., - " ,,-,. -4- ___ - 1� i - , . - - . � , �4� � , 'W �!-- . , 1. i _ L . � " L � : ; , � , �5��-- ­ , � � , �� ,� ,- . �, . ,. , , vt Ulflc� , � . � , . . - . ,4. . , . v ��,.: . . � i- 7�: , � . ..... ­ .. , , . ,W:: Table 2-3. Buildout Factors for Unimproved Platted Lots (May. 1984) District Total Platted Lots Acceptable Platted Lots* R-1 27 23 R-2 1,229 909 R-3 70 63 CR 108 73 C-2 9J9 625 SPD-20 199 190 Total 2,J92 1.883 *Acceptable based on marginal or suitable soils and located outside of CAMA AEC. Existing dwelling units ifrom 1950 Land Use Plan 3,928 DU's plus building permits to May 1984) Unimproved platted lots 2.592 Total potential residential buildout on platted lots 6,520 DU's ion septic systems) Unacceptable platted lots -709 Watland AEC lots 8o Ocean erodible AEC lots 47 Unsuitable soil lots 582 Estimated Residential Carrying Capacity 5,311 DU's fusing septic systerirs on lots permitted by State regulations.) Source: Nags Head Carrying Capacity Study, 1984. 9 ' Buildout Factors Table 2-4. for Unimproved Unplatted Parcels (May IEL ' District Total Unimoroved Acreace Unsuitable Acreaoe* R-1 95.3 31.5 R-2 237.6 25.6 ' R-3 25.2 0.0 CR 7.0 0.0 ' C-2 SPD-40 90.8 658.7 17.1 31.5 SPD-C 411.2 0.0 ' Total Acres 1.525.8 105.7 Note: This total does not include publicly -owned land. ' *Unsuitable soil on entire parcel. ' Residential Buildout at Densities from State Health Regulations (based on 15,000 square foot lots for septic use) ' District Acreaoe Buildout R-1 95.3 249 DUI R-2 237.6 03 DUI ' R-3 25.2 66 DUI CR 7.0 18 DU's C-2 90.8 237 DUI ' SPD-40 658.7 658 DU's Subtotal 1,848 ' SPD-C 411.2 1,798 DUI SPD-C 900 Motel rooms Total 1.525.3 31646 DUI 900 Motel rooms ' Source: Nags Head Carrying Capacity Study, 1984. -' 3.0 Table 2-4. Continued Residential Buildout for Unimaroved Unnlatted Parcels at Maximum Permissible Densities (as found in the Zoning Ordinance May, 1984) District Acreage Density Permittee R-1 95.3 2.9 DU/acre R-2 237.6 3.9 DU/acre R-3 25.2 (8.0 DU/first acre CR 7.0 12.0 DUlall subsequent acres) C-2 90.8 SPD-40 658.7 4.0 DU/acre as in approved SPD-C 411.2 Master plan Total Acres 1.525.8 District Acreage Buildout R-1 95.3 249 DU' s 13-2 237.6 834 DU's R-3 25.2 272 DUI CR 7.0 72 DU's C-2 90.8 980 DU' s SPD-40 658.7 2.371 DU' s Subtotal 4,778 SPD-C 411.2 1,798 DUI SPD-C 900 :hotel rooms Total 1,525.8 6, 576 DUI s 900 Motel rooms Note: Acreage here not constrained by septic regulations. Source: Nags Head Carrying Capacity Study, 1984. II ' As described above, there are 582 unimrroved nlatted lots in Naas Head which cannot be deve.loDed with the use of a seotic system due to unsuitable soils. These lots may however be ' developed with the use of alternative on -site wastewater treatment technology. The two most widely -used methods of on -site wastewater treatment on unsuitable soils are low-pressure pipe systems and ' mound systems. These systems require approximately one acre _per dwelling unit for use. ' in summary, the total amount of residential development in Nags Head on currently platted lots, assuminq no redeVelopment -tt higher than existinq densities, is 6.520 dwelling units, not including development on the approved Master Plan for the Epstein tract. Of these 6.5.20 potential dwellinq units, there are 3.928 existing dwellinq units and 2.59.' are undeveloped lots. AmDroximately 709 of these lots face severe constraints to develooment.-eavinq a • likely buildout between 5,811 dwellinq units and 6.520 dwellinq units. ' Total buildout of the Epstein tract is i.798 dwellina units and 960 motel rooms. The total residential buildout on unp'_atted parcels other than the Epstein tract is between 1.848 and 4,778 ' dwellinq units. The total amount of buildout, includinq the Epstein tract, on unplatted parcels is between 3,646 dwellinq units and 6,576 dwelling units, plus 900 motel room?. As depicted in Figure 2-1, the total residential buildout in Naas Head is therefore between 10.166 dwellinq units and 13.096 dwellinq units. Dlus the 900 motel rooms in the Einstein tract. F 22 Figure 2-1. Maximum Number of Dwelling Units with Total Residential 3uildout 15,000 10,000 .r. R b+ m 3 A 5000 cp `v p • Q. G4- +11 O 4�~ C? G Source : Nags Head tiN Carrying Capacity �GGO4 ��� G�J yO��� Study. 1984 0F� ti .a •e Q 13 H n I Building and Develooment Trends The density of actual construction that has occurred in Nags Head since April 1980 has been higher than the density permitted by the zoning ordinance. This is due to development on lots which were Platted when the zoning ordinance allowed smaller lots. The actual "market" buildout trend over the past five years indicates that buildout is occurring at maximum permissible densities or greater. In none of the zoning districts in Nags Head is development proceeding at a density appreciably less than the density permitted by the zoning ordinance (See Table 2-5). The only significant differences between maximum permissible buildout under the zoning ordinance and market trends over the past five years are due to the development of grandfathered lots in previously platted parcels. During the five year period from 1975 through 1979, there were 526 residential and motel units built in Nags Head (See Table 2-6). From April 1980 through May 1984, there were approximately 897 residential and motel units built. The development over the past four years has consumed approximately 64 acres per year (See Table 2-5). With approximately 1,500 acres of undeveloped privately - owned land subject to development, and assuming a continuation of the recent development rate (64 acres per year), Nags Head -will reach full buildout in approximately 23 years. Increasingly, the more intense multi -family uses are locating in the Town. In addition, commercial development in the Town has increased substantially in the last five years. Table 2-7 lists the most recent commercial protects and the square footage of structures involved. The existing land use map, on page 18, shows the location of the Town's present development. Nearlv all of the commercial development is located along the Croatan Highway and most of the multi -family and motel development is on the oceanfront. While the following tables describe the rate of growth, the existing land use map depicts the mixture of land uses throughout most of the Town. 1 14 Table 2-5. Naas Head Building Activity (April 1. 1980 - May 23, 1984) Densitv Zone 4/1/80 to 12/31180 Calendar 81/82/83 1/1/84 to 5/23185 Period Total Acres iDwellino Units/Acre) R-1 8 SF 3 SF 11 SF 3.8 2.9 R-2 58 SF 200 SF 44 SF 302 SF 104.: 2.9 2D 17D 2D 21D 10.8 3.9 R-3 5 SF 8 SF 13 SF 4.5 2.9 CR 6 SF 2 SF 8 SF 4.0 2.0 1 D 13 D 1 D 15 D 11.1 2.7 41 XF 45 Y'F 86 tF 6.5 13.2 69 MOTEL 17 MOTEL 85 XOTJ EL 5.1 16.9 C-2 25 SF 61 SF 9 SF 95 SF 16.3 5.8 1 D 1 D 2 D 0.7 5.7 Other: Restaurant, retail, etc. 61.7 • SPD i SF 13 Sr' 10 SF 24 SF 11.4 2.1 20&40 1 CHURCH 1 NS6 HOME 17.0 SF = Single Family Structure D = Duplex Structure MF = Multi-famliy Unit S,-mmary Total New Construction., 411/80 through 5123/84 453 Single Fat7i1Y DUI on 144.1 acres, or 3.1 DU's/acre 76 Duplex DU's on 22.5 acres, or 3.4 DUI s/acre 86 Multi -family DU's on 6.5 acres, or 13.2 DU's/acre Other 83.8 acres Total 257.0 acres Total Residential Acreaoe 173.2 acres Overall Residential Densitv 3.6 DU's/acre Building Starts, Single Family, 1975-1979 Q 980 LUP) 479 Building Starts. Single Famiiv, 4/80 - 5184 5c9 Source: Nags Head Carrying Capacity Study. 1984. 15 Table 2-6. Residential and Motel Units 1975 -_1964. Year 5innle-Family Ounlex ;",ulti-Family ?!otel 'otal Units 1975 38 0 0 0 38 1976 79 2 12 3 96 1977 124 2 18 6 150 1978 127 0 7 0 134 11379 108 0 0 0 108 1980 121 6 42 2 171 1981 109 22 16 19 166 1982 73 22 43 10 148 1983 112 28 18 59 217 1984 145 6 15 29 195 10-Year Averace 104 9 17 13 143 Source: Nags Head Planning and Development Department Since 1974, the Town has experienced considerable commercial development (see Table 2-7). Four major shopping centers have been built (Surfside Plaza, 24,600 square feet; Nags Head Station, 18,000 square feet; Satterfield Landing, 44,700 square feet and the Outer Banks Mall, 138,600 square feet). In addition to four major shopping centers, seven restaurants were built in Nags Head between 1974 and 1985, with a combined square footage of 35,000. In the future, local seasonal economy will determine to some extent the number of new commercial establishments in Nags Head. As the year-round residential population increases, the need for additional services and office space also will increase. The commercial character of the Town has changed over the last ten years from a community with no shopping centers, few restaurants and little office space to a community which can provide many of the amenities found in large cities. 16 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Table 2-7. Square_Footage of Commercial Buildings Built or Remodeled in Nags Head, from 1975 through 198L Year Restaurants Retail Entertainment Service* i7ffice 1975 0 13.SOO (1) 0 3,796 (1) 384 (1) 1976 4,290 (2) 11,987 (3) 4,440 (1) 0 504 (1) 1977 224 (1) 39,038 (10) 0 2,500 (1) 108 (1) 1978 3,000 (1) 14,994 (8) 5,160 (2) 0 0 1979 0 13,670 (6) 0 0 7.330 (2) 1980 4,589 (2) 19.281 (3) 0 9.390 (2) 0 1981 20,964 5,580 (2) 20,428 37.960 7,360 (3) 1982 1,240 (2) 168,883 (8) 3,196 (1) 480 0 2,964 il) 1983 3,458 (2) 69,516 (4) 0 1,705 (3) 1, 020 (2) 1984 19,346 (4) 5,347 (2) 30.116 (3) 0 280 (1) 10-Year Total 57,111 361,996 63,040 55.831 2f>, 600 Service includes Health Care Center, Banks, Churches, yursina Hape, 8as Staticos. ;Vote: ;Number of huildino cernits issued in parentheses. Source: Nags Head Planning and Development Department 17 Existing Land Use Map FV-I k 1 s Iffes,"hm MMI mrJill I W+ u p �.S �� il.4 - .����i, ..� �� v u , OOB00 == �70CIF..rw . v ii iii-➢- :� \ rJUgO. ....... �►�.�.�iqt. nan r..:___ ,owyt.:•ll..T__ fl11f�11=1N1::1 :p\.�INIIIIIT ::_,.:IUNI _ ! ni 1:Il/-...��1.II:•�•:�::•:-�'�I���'�III��� �:}':':®•'�,1,.\gig\ •� III Is\\ xs :K ��!..S�I�\ 1N!M��7]!MS �.iS'Ml�w�vJt7ti4VXy.MVl7LRK.l _v. _�,_ I7ltlalJ.al7N74xIGM.uA�.......w.:weftY.nz.�rtm�..�xx.�v..•,��._.�..,........._...�..-..ur�_�aa: xx._ _� .� L 10 MUM Immimp .. Seasonal Population Making certain assumptions about the number of individuals residing in each dwelling unit and hotel/motel room in the Town allows us to estimate the potential seasonal peak population. Table 2-8 presents the methodology and calculations for this procedure, and indicates that under existing development, peak population can exceed 30,000 people. The estimated number of residents during the peak period (e.g. when hotel/motel rooms are at full occupancy, and so on), is in stark contrast to the 1.500 or so permanent residents residing in the Town. It is clear that it is this peak or maximum population which must be considered for planning purposes. In addition to the population estimates, existing development includes over 5.000 restaurant seats, nearly 600.000 square feet of retail structures, over 300.00 square feet of service establishments along with offices and warehousing. Table 2-8. Current_ Development and Estimated Intensities. July 15._1985 Current 'Land Use Potential Seasonal Land U-ca Comnosition Current Development ?ovulation Averace Acres Fercentae Intensities Develoced of Total Per Acre Total Factors Total PTflr SF� 616 65.8% 3.9 DU/AC 2402 DU's 8 PEDPLE/DU .216 MjF 33 3. 5% 7.8 DU/AC 257 DIP s 6 uS,DPLE/DU 1. 542 ,1101X* ERCIAL Restaurant ,rot el/Cott Retail offices Warehouse Services 37 3.91, 139 SDTJAC 5143 SEATS 26 13. 1y 7T P.C� ,lflC 8 5 JEDJim I(� r 2�6o LNITS 3.:, u; iDU . Q. C..O 76 S.2: 7673 SF/A 583.1.48 S= 4 Q.4% S-123 SF/AC 25.312 SF 2 V.L= rla8o SF/Po _9.2.60 SF 43 s.5� 8248 SF/AC 354.664 St 535 loo. i,A 30.768 . 5ource: Naqs Head Planning and Development 19 Pro-Lectinct the Impacts and•_ Implications of Future Growth As Nags Head continues to grow and develop, the size of its peak population will grow as well. The previous analysis of land availability, permissible development and building trends permits us to estimate the extent of future peak population and in turn demands placed upon the natural and man-made environment. Table 2-9 presents the likely peak population that would.result from the maximum buildout, with the current composition of land uses. This results in a predicted peak population under complete buildout of over 100,000 people. Build out at the current composition of land uses also will produce almost 3 million square feet of service establishments and 1 million square feet of retail structures. In addition to office and warehouse development, buildout will produce almost 17,000 restaurant seats. r Table 2-9. 1 Future Total Buildout Under 1985 Composition of Land Uses Lant Use L3Y.G Use Corimosition Pro:etied Intensities Pa:ulation ^-rolected Acreage for Percentace Total Acres InL2nsitV Develonsient of ;oral Developed Per Site Acre Iota: Factors _ o.a_ RSFD=_:�TiA' 5r 14(!7 55. 8� cC!?3 3.9 DU PC 7394 DU' S 8 ::cC;p—/DU __ cs..?O r/F 76 3.J: 109 _ 7.a DU/AC RO DU's _ _ 6 �EG'L_iDU �!u:, r. r r:'IC AL es:auraY!i 34 a. 9f 12i 139 SEA T /AC 161815 SEATS `"ute/Coil 287 13.4. 413 22.7 LhiT/AC :i\ITS 3.C_-PiiUvlT ??Lal i 1/5 8. LP �; �-/AC i9.37 `FLJi a Offices 9 0.4X 14 63218 SF/AC 88,592 S; garehcuse 3 0.2% 5 SEW SF/AC 48.4OO SF Services 98 4.6% 140 8248 SF/AC 1.154.7220 SF ai ISource: Naas Head Planning and Development Department 20 This projection can then be used to estimate the impacts on public services and facilities. Tables 2-10 through 2-13 below project the impacts of future growth to maximum buildout levels for ' several key community services and facilities.* For instance, Table 2-10 indicates that water consumption under future total buildout will increase by over 200%, from.2,O6O to 6,766 thousand gallons per ' day. Table 2-10. Existing and Proiected_Water .Consumation (thousands of gallons per day) Land Use Factors Total under 1g85 Deveionment Total under Caroiete luzlcout ;, _;11nriiI-{ 5F 435 GAD/DU 1044 3432 N/F 326 GAD/DU 84 277 1 LC�. 'TCIPL Restaurant 35 GAD/SEAT 180 587 *otel/Cott 213 GAD/UNIT 609 1997 Retail 15 GAD/100 SF 87 289 Offices 7.5 GAD/= SF 2 7 Warehouse 7.5 GAD/100 SF 1 4 Services 15 GAD/100 SF 53 173 Total 2060 6766 thousands GAD tnousanvs AD r r Source: Nags Head Planning and Development Department 21 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 L 1 1 1 1 Table 2-11 indicates that the amount of solid waste Generated by the community will increase by a similar extent under future total buildout. Specifically, the estimated cubic yards of solid waste per trash pick-up is projected to increase from 2,171 to 7,130. Table 2 -11 . Existing and Proie_cted Trash Pick-un (cubic yards per pick-up) !anG Use Factors Total under 1?85 Develooment Tozai uncer Cam ete Bun co r RESIDENT I aL Sr 0.30 CYD/UVJ 720 2357 M/F 0.50 CYDJDU 129 425 CL•XJMERC1AL restaurant 0.05 CYD/SEAT 257 841 ,Motallcctt 0.14 CYD/UNIT 400 1313 Retail 0.07 CYD/100 SF 408 1348 Dffices 0.02 CYD/100 5F 5 18 ;are.�ousa 0.02 CYD/100 SF 4 10 services 0.07 CYD/1() S.= 248 508 ra�a1 2171 cubic yards 7130 cubic vares Source: Nags Head Planning and Development Department 22 Table 2-12 indicates that projecting existing assumptions concerning impervious surfaces into the future will also result in dramatic increases under total buildout. This projection has a significant impact on the Town's drainage systems. including ocean outfalls. Table 2-13 suggests that as the Town grows so also will its tax base. The Town's estimated existing tax base of approximately $234 million is projected to increase to $768 million under future total buildout. Table 2-12 Existing and Pro Zec ed Sguarg Footaae_of Impervious _Surf aces �ar.•c Use Factors Total urcer 1965 Develooment Total under Future Blh ldout R_"SID=;TIAL SF i580 SF/DU 3.795.160 _M08.400 /F 1679 SF/DU 431.503 1.427.150 irXrca I,A, 3estaurant 168 SF/MQ7 864.024 2.825.59c otei/Col L3 5FILNIT 2,325.180 7.621.275 "'etail 35-5 SF/IGOSF 2,128.490 7,029.518 D;rice 355 SFYI00Sr 69.-�58 314.502 sarenouse 204 SF/ IOOSF 39,494 98,736 ervices 316 SF/1OOSF 1.120.738 3.648.915 Total 10,794.547 35.2fiG.286 (247 acres) (809 acres) Source: Naas Head Planninq and Development Department 23 Table 2-13. Existing and Protected Assessed Value of Structures_ (millions of dollars) !anal Use Fact O-s Total under 1985 Deveiooment 7ctal under Future Kui cout RSSIDEWIA_ SF 50.000 DU $ 144.12 473.40 t^/F 45.926 DU 11.80 39.05 Restaurant 1.320 SLAT 5.79 22.20 �otelicott '5.5UU L'tiIT 44.33 145.31 Retail 2,700/l00SF 15.74 51.99 D; ; ice 2.900/SUUSF 0.73 2.57 Warehouse 1.500/1UC'SF 0.29 0.73 Services 2,800/10USF 9.93 32.33 7o-al $ 233.73 $ 767.58 Note: These estimated values are in 1985 dollars. Source: Nags Head Planning and Development Department These types of projections say little, however, about the capacity of the Town, and its natural and man-made environments, to accommodate growth demands. For instance, to estimate that local I water consumption will triple in size at some point in the future does not address the question of whether this demand can be satisfied under the existing water supply and distribution system. Moreover, this type of analysis is value -neutral and does not establish whether such improvements, if needed to meet future demand, should even be made given the high economic and environmental costs which may accompany them and the desires of the community. A complete analysis of the impacts of growth should carefully consider these issues. More specific information concerning the "carrying capacity" of local environmental and man-made systems to accommodate these growth demands is contained in the chapters which follow in this plan. These chapters also identify local goals and policies which assist in determining when and to what extent growth demands can be satisfied. and at what economic, social and environmental costs. 1 1 24 I Chapter 3, Managing Growth in Naqs Head In the previous chapter we described the population and development growth trends that the Town of Nags Head is currently experiencing and expect to experience in the future. Along with this growth are numerous impacts and implications, from the increasing demands placed upon public services and facilities to the negative effects on the quality of the natural environment. Yet, Nags Head is not powerless in the face of these effects. Rather, through carefully guiding and managing of future growth the Town can minimize negative effects and maximize the benefits and opportunities growth presents. Characteristics of Growth Efforts to manage future .growth can focus on one or more.of the characteristics of this growth. At least five dimensions of growth can be identified and can be modified through public policy to achieve certain local goals: type, quality, density, location and timing. Each of these dimensions is briefly described below. 1. ape. Type of growth or development usually refers to the use to which land and space is put. Typical growth types include commercial and industrial, recreational, single family residential. multi -family, and so on. A growth management program may control the type of new growth occurring in the community, for instance, to preserve the community's residential character, to minimize incompatible uses and to avoid the negative effects of certain land use activities (e.g., noise, traffic, pollution). Throuah tradition Nags Head has become a community dominated by single family structures. The Town can exercise control over the mix of land uses developing in the community through the zoning ordinance and zoning map. 2. Oualit_y. The quality of growth usually refers to the construction and design of the development occurring in the jurisdiction. A community may wish, for example, to pursue building code amendments to ensure that the quality of construction is such that structures will withstand certain physical forces, such a hurricane force winds. Quality may extend, as well, to the aesthetic features of the structure, and the community may regulate the exterior design of buildings to preserve the visual and architectural integrity of the community. The amount of open space required around a building may be considered a question of quality. 1 3 Den sity. An important dimension of growth is the intensity or density with which it occurs over the entire community and on particular sites. A community may wish to control the density of development to protect natural resources such as ground water quality and estuarine areas. Controlling the density of development has implications for the generation of traffic, the consumption of water and demand for other public services and facilities, and the scenic and aesthetic quality of the community. The density at which a town develops has a profound impact on the community's character. Nags Head is characterized as a low density community. 4. Location. Certain uses and densities are appropriate in certain locations, while others are not. Consequently, a key dimension of growth which management programs are designed to influence is its location. For instance, while a community may decide that some identical uses are acceptable, placing them next door to residential neighborhoods may not be. To preserve the integrity of the beach and dune system in a locality or to reduce the amount of the Town at -risk in a hurricane, it may be necessary to locate development - and particularly higher density development away from the oceanfront. 5. Rate. Depending upon the economic and other pressures experienced by communities, unmanaged growth may progress at a slow or fast pace. When growth demands are strong, and the resulting pace of growth is quick, the problems created by this growth may exceed the community's short term capacity to deal with it. Public services and capital facilities become strained, with cost-efficient expansion requiring additional time. Natural systems become taxed, with little opportunity for local officials to adequately assess these impacts and take appropriate mitigating actions. Consequently, a growth management program may attempt -to better deal with these problems by moderating and controlling the permissible rate or pace of growth in the community. The recently adopted Water Tap Allocation Ordinance is a local example of controlling the rate of development in Nags Head. Types_ofGrowth Management Techniques A number of specific growth management programs and policies can be employed to modify the above characteristics of growth to achieve community goals. Six types or categories of growth management programs are briefly mentioned here: (1) plans, (2) development regulation, (3) capital facilities policy, (4) land and property acquisition, (5) taxation, fiscal and other incentives, and (6) information dissemination. The reader will note that each of these types is represented in the policies and implementing proposals contained in the subsequent chapters of this plan. 1 26 1. Plans. The Nags Head land use plan at its most general level falls into this category. Plans represent the preparation of guiding frameworks for making future decisions. Less comprehensive plans can serve to guide and implement a larger plan. In subsequent chapters, for instance, the capital improvements program, and post -hurricane reconstruction plan, are discussed as approaches to addressing and implementing the goals set forth in this plan. In addition to the 1980 land use plan, which this plan updates, there exists in Nags Head a Surface Water Drainage Plan. It identifies drainage basins, corridors and depicts problem areas. The drainage plan is used in reviewing proposed development plans. 2. Development re_qulations. The tools and techniques included in this category are those which seek to manage growth by directly regulatioq it. Included here are traditional regulatinq devices such as zoning and subdivision ordinances. as well as more innovative programs such as the use of performance standards and bonus and incentive zoning. The Town recently adopted a Water Tap Allocation Ordinance intended to pace the rate of development with the ability to develop a new water supply. The Naas Head Villaqe Zoning Ordinance is another local example of an innovative regulation. This ordinance is designed to facilitate bonus and incentive zoning, cluster housing, shared common areas and other techniques to enhance the quality of development. The Area of Environmental Concern (AEC) program under CAMA is an example of a shared state -local regulatory growth management program through the issuance of major and minor CAMA permits. One development control technique which represents a new land use approach and could be implemented in Nags Head involves the transfer of development rights from one parcel of land to another parcel of land. The transfer of development rights (TDR) concept is a simple idea. In TDR, a number of development rights (density rights) is assigned to each land owner and a market is established for exchanging or transferring these rights among owners. Development is allowed in some areas and restricted in others, in environmentally sensitive areas, for example. The quantity and distribution of development rights is determined so that the realization of the full development potential by the owners of developable property requires them to augment their own supply of development rights by buying development rights from those who own land on which development is restricted. The TDR system can lead to more effective preservations of environmentally sensitive areas, open spaces, landmarks and historic districts along with a more efficient use of land earmarked for development. Implementation of the TDR system, however, would require considerable staff time and public acceptance. 27 3. Capital facilities policy. Many of the goals of managing I growth can be accomplished through decisions concerning the expenditure of public monies. For instance, a locality may be able to redirect growth away from a particularly sensitive environmental zone, by locating critical public services such as sewer and water in other less sensitive locations. As a further example, a locality may decide not to construct a public road to an undeveloped part of town to prevent the future growth pressures that such an investment would create. Nags Head, in conjunction with the Town of Kill Devil Hills and Dare County, recently expended funds to increase the water treatment capacity of the regional water system. The impact of this decision is to allow the area to continue developing. 4. Land and proeerty_acquisition. In many cases the most effective way in which a locality can advance its growth management objective is through the public acquisition of land and property. The community may wish to preserve a pristine natural area, subject ' to intense development. through public acquisition. Acauisition is typically used to secure lands for recreational and other public uses. Acquisition may also be applied to structures and development properties, for instance when a locality intervenes to purchase an architecturally significant.buildin.q threatened by existing patterns of development. Nags Head purchased land in 1981. for a public beach and maintains ownership of 250 acres, most of which is a maritime forest or watershed preserve. 5. Taxation. fiscal and other incentives. Growth can also be directed and managed through taxation and other fiscal incentives. This category includes mechanisms designed to influence private development in a more indirect fashion. For instance, preferential property tax assessment for certain desirable land uses (e.g., agricultural lands, open space) may reduce the private costs of holding these lands in an undeveloped state, and thus reduce their chance of development. As a further example, site value taxation might be used in increase the holding costs of underdeveloped land in areas where development is denied by the community, inducing more compact and contiguous forms of growth, and deflecting growth pressures away from rural and less suitable development locations. While not under control of the Town, the federal flood insurance program provides an example of financial incentive. Homeowners employing sturdier construction standards can get reduced insurance premiums. While the Town is not using fiscal incentives to guide growth, it may deserve consideration to implement an open space plan. 6. Information dissemination. Classical economic theory suggests that consumers will make more informed decisions about 1 development and the use of land if they are given more complete information. Programs in this category, then, involve efforts to convey to consumers and the public certain crucial information. 28 For instance, a community may attempt to discourage future development in high storm hazard areas by requiring the explicit disclosure of this hazard to potential purchasers of land or property in these areas. As a further example, a community may attempt to bring about more environmentally sensitive building practices by distributing information and data concerning the environmental degradation normally incurred by the community. The Town of Nags Head has produced several reports that disseminate information about development. A Carrying Capacity Report analyzes the Town's capacity to absorb growth in terms of hurricane evacuation, water, sewage treatment and land availability. The Hurricane Hazard Mitigation and Post -Storm Reconstruction Report address the threats of severe storms and hurricanes and depicts high hazard areas. The results of a public opinion survey are cataloged in a report entitled 1964 Land Use Survey. This document conveys the attitudes and preferences of Nags Head's permanent and seasonal residents. A final document, Storm Drainage Design Manual, explains to developers ways of managing stormwater runoff. Modifino_the Characteristics of Growth in Naqs Head The above discussion indicates that communities are not powerless against the pressures of growth. Rather, as we have suggested, there are both a number of different dimensions to growth which can be modified or managed, and numerous growth management programs available for doing this. In this section we will briefly illustrate how Nags Head can modify _growth trends, and the implications of doing so. To illustrate how the Town can control the impacts of growth, we will return to the estimates of population and development under the future total buildout scenario, described in Chapter 2. We will compare the projected results of modifying one or more dimensions of growth with the future total buildout under current circumstances (i.e., no change from current land use). Consider, for example, the possibility of shifting more of the Town's available acreage to single family residential uses. What are the implications of doing this? Table 3-1 below indicates that Scenario II, as we will call it, increases the acreage in single family residential uses to 81% of the total Town average, as compared with only 66: under the buildout scenario which assumes the existing land use composition (what we will refer to as Scenario I). This would be accomplished by reducing the amount of acreage in other uses, such as commercial and multi -family residential. 29 1 1 1 1 1 i 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Table 3-1 Acreacre Comparison of Scenarios I and I_I Buildout Acreage Assuming Buildout Acreage Assuming Ircreasinp 1985 Lard Use Comoosition Amount Single Family Residential Land Use (Scenario I) (Scenario 1I) RESIDENTIAL SF 2023 (66%) 2500 (81%) MIF 109 (4%) 60 (2•) CD?'M6RCIAL :restaurant 121 (4%) 70 (2%) 4otel/Cott 413 (13%) 239 (8%) Retail 251 (9%) 130 (4%) Offices 14 (.59%) 5 (.c%) Warehouse 5 (.2%) 2 (.06%) Services 140 (5%) 70 (2%) Total 3076 3076 Table 3-2. Effects of Increase in Single Family Residential_ Scenario 1 Scenario it (increases SF) Peak owulation 101,033 99,797 people Water consumption 6,766 6,130 thousands UPD Trash pickup 7,130 51518 cubic vard per cicxuo impervious surfaces 35,260,286 27,353,048 scuare feet Assessed value of structures $ 767.58 $ 747.60 million 30 The consequences of modifying the existing land use configuration in favor of increasing single family residential would have mixed results depending upon the goals established as important by the Town. While Scenario II (increased single family ' residential) would decrease somewhat the peak population in the Town, it would result in substantial reductions in water consumption, solid waste disposal demand, and the amount of impervious surfaces in the Town. Scenario II also leads to a reduction in the Town's tax base, which may or may not be perceived as a problem. Now consider a scenario in which the amount of commercial acreage under total buildout is increased and the amount of single family residential is reduced (Scenario III). As Table 3-3 below ' indicates the amount of commercial acreage under the new scenario constitutes about 41: of the total acreage, compared with about 32: under Scenario I. Moreover, the proportion of total acreage in single family residential drops from 66%t in Scenario I to 55% in Scenario III. I Table 3-3 Acrea_ge_Comparison of Scenarios I and III Puildout Acreane Assuminn Buildout Acreace Asseminn Increase in 1985 Land Use Composition Commercial/Decrease in 5inale Familv Land Use (Scenario 1) (Scenario III) RE3IDE,N'TIAL SF 2023 (66%) 1702 (55i) IVF 109 (4%) 108 (4%) CD?'tERCIAL Restaurant 121 (4%) 120 (4%) ;hotel/Cott 413 (131%) 412 (13%) Retail 251 (9%) 451 (15%) Offices 14 (.5%) 22 (.7%) Warehouse 5 (.2,Q 6 (.2%) - Services 140 (5%) 254 (8%) Total 3076 3075 ' �1 Table 3-4_ Effects of Increase in Commercial Decrease in Single Family Residential Acrea..ge ' Scenario I Scenario 1T1 Peak population 101,033 90,968 reooie Water consunntion 6,766 6,555 thousands 5PD ?rash aickup 7.130 8,493 cubic vard per Pickuo innervious surfaces Assess value of structures 35,250,286 $ 767.58 42,212.569 3 761.20 square feet niilion The results of Table 3-4 indicate that such an increase in commercial, and a corresponding decrease in single family ' residential, would result in a substantial reduction in peak population and water consumption, yet an increase in the demand for solid waste disposal and impervious surfaces. Under Scenario III, the amount of assessed valuation would decrease somewhat. Modifying these patterns of land use, then, will result in different types and levels of impacts and service demands. Which scenario is preferable will depend upon the _goals and priorities of the community. The implications of controlling the rate of growth can also be illustrated through the use of these scenarios. In Scenario IV the amount of development permissible by 1995 is controlled through the issuance of limited water tap permits, under the Town of Nags ' Head's new Water Allocation Ordinance. Table 3-5 presents a comparison between the expected development levels under the 1995 water tap scenario (Scenario IV) and the total future buildout scenario (Scenario I). While total future buildout is not likely to occur within ten years, it can occur in 23 years under the current development rate. The water tap scenario, however, imposes a specific limit on the rate of town growth and will delay the time of total buildout. 1 32 Table 3-5. Density Comaarisons Between Scenarios I and I_V Intensity Total Density Buildout Assuming 1555 Under Water Tan Land Use Per Site Acre 1985 Land Use Composition Allocation Ordinance (Scenario 1) (Scenario IV) RESIDENTIAL SF 3. 9 DU/AC 7. &?rD DUI 3, 758 LM s y!/F 7.8 DU/AC 850 DU' s 454 DU' s COMMERCIAL Restaurant 139 SEAT/AC 16,819 SEATS 6.392 SSA-5 ?otel/Cott 22.7 L'NIT/AC 9.375 UNIT5 3.321 UNITS Retail 7,673 SF/AC i,925,523 SF 895,078 S= Offices 6,328 SF/AC 88.592 SF i74.483 SF Warehouse 9. 680 SF/AC 48,400 SF 25.234 SF Services 8,248 Sr"/AC 1.154.720 SF 810.326 SF Table 3-6. Effects of Restrictinq Rate of Future Growth Scenario I Scenario :V Peak ovulation 101.033 44,410 oeooie Water consumption 6,766 2,985 thousands SPD Trash oicxuo 7.130 3,372 cubic yards oar pickuo Iamoervious surfaces 35,260.286 16,972,290 souare feet Assessed value of structures $ 767.58 $ 358.55 million 33 fl As expected, Scenario IV yields much lower levels of peak population, water consumption, trash pickup demand, impervious surfaces and assessed property valuation. This illustrates how controlling the rate of growth may prevent rapid buildout, and may minimize the urgency of the tremendous service demands, and pressures on the natural and man-made environments. Although the water tap scenario is intended to depict the results of phased growth, it also illustrates what the results might be of placing an absolute cap on development and growth in the Town - in this case at roughly the 44,000 peak population level. Such an absolute limitation on future growth would prevent any future increases in demands for such services as water consumption and solid waste disposal, and would limit any further pressures on such limited collective resources such as ground and surface water quality and evacuation capacity. As stated in the previous chapter, illustrations of the demands of growth under different development scenarios say little about the capacity of the natural and man-made environments to accommodate them. Nor does this type of analysis indicate which impacts of growth - negative or positive - are important or acceptable to the community. If protecting the natural coastal environment is not an important goal to the community, for example, then there may be little reason to modify the characteristics of growth to prevent its impact in this area. These are questions addressed in subsequent chapters of the plan. 34 I Chapter 4. Shoreline Management and Protection A. Strategies for Addressing Erosion B. Public Access to the Shoreline C. Public Use of the Shorelines ' Problem Statement The Town of Nags Head depends heavily on its proximity to the ' water. It is the Town's ocean and sound shorelines which bring people to the community and which provide the basic recreational and aesthetic amenities fundamental to Nags Head's existence. As growth continues in the Town, the pressures placed upon the use and development of these shoreline will increase dramatically. The Town believes it must take an active role in managing and protecting ' these shoreline resources. Problems arise when developers fail to understand or acknowledge that barrier islands are dynamic and ever -changing environments. Barrier islands have been shown to.migrate (e.a. Kaufman and Pilkey, 1977) and are subject to a complex and numerous set of natural forces (e.g. washover processes. littoral drift, inlet formation, dune and beach dynamics), and are further modified by storms and hurricanes. Coastal erosion, both as a result of normal offshore littoral patterns, the occurrence of hurricanes and storms, and the general sea level rise which has been occurring (Titus, 1985), make development along the shores of barrier islands particularly tenuous. In the past, problems have arisen by allowing the construction of immovable buildings along the ocean shore, necessitating the expenditure of public funds to protect these structures when natural forces threatened them. Several methods have been used to stabilize the ocean beach. Primary among them are: (1) sand moving programs (e.g.,beach nourishment, sand pushing), (2) sand trapping structures (e.g. groins, jetties) and (3) shoreline protection works (e.g. bulkheads, seawalls, revetments.). ' Beach nourishment programs involve efforts to push or place sand onto the beach in an attempt to build back former dunes and upper beach. Because most beach renourishment programs involve only the upper reaches of the beach, they increase its slope, and ' can actually increase the rate of erosion. Moreover, beach nourishment projects are typically very expensive and the results very temporary. A single northeaster may eliminate much of the ' sand deposited under a nourishment program. Beach nourishment programs, however, represent efforts to preserve oceanfront property without damaging neighboring property or destroying the public's use of the beach. 1 35 n I� Groins and jetties are structures built perpendicular to the shoreline. Jetties are often very long and intended to keep sand from filling in inlets and shipping channels. Groins are smaller and attempt to trap sand flowing in the littoral current. Such ' structures are expensive, unsightly and cause extensive erosion problems down -current, as they rob these beach areas of the natural sand replenishment they would normally receive. Shoreline protection works, such as seawalls and revetments, are built parallel to the coastline and are designed to shield directly shoreline property from the ocean forces. The City of ' Galveston, Texas, for instance, has constructed a 17-foot seawall, which protects it urbanized area. Such structures, however, reflect wave action, and intensify currents which steepen the profile of the beach and damage the property beyond the ends of the structure. In the long run these structures serve to destroy or seriously undermine the beach, require continual maintenance and investment and are largely ineffective at protecting property from ' shoreline processes without perpetual nourishment of the beach seaward of the hardened shoreline, the portion of the beach available to the public would soon erode away. Moreover, these ' structures are extremely costly to build. Recognizing the inappropriateness of such shore hardening devices, the Coastal Resources Commission has recently adopted a CAMA amendment outlawing their use of North Carolina ocean beaches. A more responsible approach is to acknowledge the natural processes and dynamics of the shoreline and to manage growth accordingly. The location, density and figuration of development can be modified to take into consideration these valuable and important resources and to respect their natural processes. Results from the 1984 land use survey tend to support this position. When asked about shoreline erosion prevention measures only 17: of the respondents expressed support for such measures as ' building seawalls and pumping in sand that would permit increased building density on the beach. However, almost half of the respondents (46%) said they would like to see increased setbacks and high density development off the beach. Disallowing the hardening of the shoreline will preserve the ' public beach, which is defined as the beach which exists between low and high water lines of the ocean. While this provides the public with a means of enjoying the ocean shoreline, it is hardly enough to adequately satisfy the demand for public enjoyment. The preservation of the public beach should be accompanied with acquisition and development of public lands and accessways on both the ocean and sound shorelines. This subject is further discussed ' in Chapter 12. ' 36 Goal It is the goal of Nags Head to protect its shoreline resources, and to interfere as little as possible with the natural processes ' and dynamics at work in these areas. Policies 1. It is the policy of the Town to encourage future motel and commercial development constructed of steel and concrete to locate west of the beach road. 2. It is the policy of the Town that no person or legal entity shall be permitted to build a seawall, ;jetty, groin or other artificial device designed to stabilize the ocean shoreline. The Town supports the CAMA provisions which prohibit the use of share -hardening devices in these areas. ' 3. The Town opposes any shoreline management strategy that damages abutting property or endangers the public beach. 4. Beach nourishment, the movement of sand on a particular site, and the use of sand bags are permitted by the Town, but only when they do not interfere with access to and use of the beach by ' the public. 5. The Town believes that a healthy dune system is important and shall take all actions to preserve and enhance this system. This will include regulating development to minimize its impacts of the dune system. 6. The Town encourages measures other than hand structures, such as groins or bulkheads, being constructed on the estuarine shoreline for the purpose of temporarily stabilizing the es.tuarine ' shoreline. 7. The Town places a very high priority on the provision of ' public access to and public use of the ocean and sound shorelines. 8. It is the policy of the Town that movement of beach sand out ' of the beach -dune system should be prohibited. 37 � Chapter 5. Hurricane and Coastal Storm Hazard.�Mitaaton A. Mitigation of Storm Hazards Prior to the Storm B. Reconstruction after a Severe Storm 1 Problem Statement ' Hurricanes and severe coastal storms represent serious threats to life and property on the North Carolina coast. North Carolina is second only to Florida among Atlantic coast states in the number of hurricanes striking the mainland. Between 1890 and the present, North Carolina experienced 22 hurricanes, or an average of approximately one hurricane every four years (Neumann et al., 1978, updated for Hurricane Diana). •In addition to hurricanes, Nags Head ' is subject to tropical storms and northeasters, such as the devastating Ash Wednesday storm of 1962. Hurricanes and coastal storms create severe conditions of high winds, flooding and wave ' action. Collective response to hurricanes and severe storms might be ' conceptualized in terms of four primary phases: (1) pre -storm Mitigation. (2) warning and preparedness, (3) response and (4) recovery and reconstruction. This chapter of the plan deals with the first and last of these stages, and divides the discussion and policy statements accordingly. Issues of hurricane preparedness and evacuation regarding traffic and transportation in Naas Head are discussed in Chapter 6. Vulnerability to hurricane and storm hazards can be assessed first by analyzing the nature and location of physical hazards, and ' then by estimating the extent to which people and property are exposed to these forces. These assessments are provided below in brief fashion. A more extensive analysis is provided in the 1984 Hurricane Hazard Mitigation and Post -Storm Reconstruction Plan. Location of storm hazard areas There are two approaches to delineating areas that are vulnerable to coastal storms. One uses proximity to the ocean; the other uses topography or elevation of the land above mean sea level. Because both have validity, both are explored. Attain it ' should be noted that currently the North Carolina coast is being studied under a hurricane simulation model know as SLOSH (Sea, Lake and Overland Surges from Hurricanes). When this study is completed it will provide detailed information concerning the location and intensity of hurricane forces under different storm assumptions, and this data should be incorporated into the Nags Head plan at a future date. 1 38 Map 5-1 depicts the high hazard areas of the Town which ' includes flood zones, the 300-foot setback area from the ocean and incipient inlets. Map 5-1 also delineates the ocean hazard Area of Environmental Concern (AEC). Not shown on Map 5-1 is a 75-foot estuarine shoreline AEC. This map and the collection of data ' presented below are based upon the flood zones as designated at the time this plan was prepared (Flood Hazard Boundary Map LFHBM] #4-01-07, dated October 17, 1975). It is expected that the National Flood Insurance Program will soon change the Nags Head flood insurance rate map. This plan should be updated in the future after the new flood map is adopted to reflect new flood zones. �Ca'�1 m = m = = r = = = = r m = = r