Population & Economic Growth and Future Land Use Needs 1980-1990-1980

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In
CITY COUNCIL
Ben B. Halterman, Mayor
Margaret Fonvielle, Mayor Pro
Rupert Bryan
Joseph T. Dunn
Luther Jordan
Tony Pate
William Schwartz
Robert G. Cobb, City Manager
COUNTY COMMISSIONERS
Ellen C. Williams, Chairman
Tem Howard Armistead
Karen E. Gottovi
Jan S. Morgan
Claude O'Shields, Jr.
George Felix Cooper, County Manager
WILMINGTON-NEW HANOVER PLANNING COMMISSION
Hamilton E. Hicks, Jr., Chairman Charles Hollis
James C. Barker Katherine Hoyt
Larry Flowers J. D. Orrell
Ernest Fullwood Dan Retchin
Louise Gorham Richard Sniffen
William B. Farris, Director of Planning
PLANNING STAFF
Glenn R. Harbeck, Senior Planner
Michael L. Hargett, Staff Planner
Dale D. Lambert, Planning Technician
CAMA FUNDED POSITION
Pamela E. Shellenberger
GRAPHICS
Lynn Golston and Jeff Jeffords
SECRETARIAL
Dorothy M. Chavious
Prepared by:
WILMINGTON-NEW HANOVER PLANNING DEPARTMENT
The preparation of this document was financed, in part, through a Coastal
Area Management Act grant provided by the North Carolina Coastal Management
Program, through Funds provided by the Coastal Zone Management Act of 1972, as
amended, which is administrered by the Office of Coastal Zone Management,
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Table of Contents
PAGE
INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1
PART 1.
POPULATION GROWTH AND LAND USE NEEDS . . . . . . . . .
3
I.
Summary of Population Trends and Projections
4
II.
Overall Population Trends,and Projections. . . . . . .
6
A. Past Trends . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
6
County Growth Trends . . . . . .
6
Comparisons to State and Region "0" Trends.
9
B. Population Projections and Methodology
11
Projections .. . .
11
Methodology for Population Projections. . . .
14
III.
Subarea Trends and Projections . . . . .~,_.
16
A. Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
16
B. Municipalities Versus the Unincorporated Area. . .
16
Trends. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
16
Projections . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
20
C. Townships . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
21
Trends. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
21
Projections . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
23
D. Impact of Annexation on Subarea Growth . . . . . .
.2 3
IV.
Changes In Population Composition and Housing Needs. .
26
A. Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
26
B. Changes in Age Structure . . . . . . . . . . . . .
26
C. Household Characteristics. . . . . . . . . . . .
28
D. Gross Housing Needs: 1980 to 1990 . . . . . . . .
31
E. Housing Demand by Type . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
31
Owner -Occupied Versus Rental Housing. . . . .
31
Single Family Versus Multifamily Housing. . .
36
V.
Residential Land Use Needs: 1980-1990 . . . . . . . .
39

fk
PAGE
PART 2.
ECONOMIC GROWTH AND LAND USE NEEDS . . . . . . . . . . . .
. 42
I.
Summary of Economic Growth . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. 43
II.
Assessing the Economy: Date Used . . . . . . . . . . .
. 44
III.
New Hanover County and the Wilmington SMSA . . . . . . .
. 50
A. Total Work Force . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. 50
B. Manufacturing Versus Non -Manufacturing Employment . .
. 52
C. Manufacturing Employment by Major Categories:
1962-1978 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. 57
D. Non -Manufacturing Employment by Major Categories:
1962-1978 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. 62
IV.
Non -Residential Land Use Needs: 1980-1990. . . . . . . .
. 65
A. Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. 65
B. Office and Institutional . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.. 69
C. Commercial .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
74
D. Transportation, Communication, and Utilities. . . . .
. 76
E. Intensive and Extensive Manufacturing . . . . . . . .
. 78
Intensive Industry . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. 78
Extensive Industry . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. 80
PART 3.
SUMMARY OF FUTURE LAND USE NEEDS: 1980-1990 • • • • • •
• 83
I.
Detailed Land Use Needs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. 84
II.
Gross Land Needs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. 87

U
List
of Tables, Figures, and Maps
PAGE
TABLE
1
New Hanover County Population Growth Characteristics for
7
Selected Years, 1930 - 1980
FIGURE
1
Population Growth Trends, New Hanover County, 1930 - 1980 and
8
Projected 1990
TABLE
2
Comparison of Population Growth Rates -- New Hanover County,
10
Region "0," and North Carolina
TABLE
3
New Hanover County Share of State and Regional Populations,
10
1950 - 1980
TABLE
4
Ratios of Employment to Labor Force and Labor Force to
13
Population for New Hanover County for Selected Years
MAP 1
Municipalities and Unincorporated Area of New Hanover County, 1980
17
MAP 2
New Hanover County Townships __
18
TABLE
5
New Hanover County Population by Municipality and Unincorporated
19
Area, 1960 - 1990
TABLE
6
New Hanover County Population by Township, 1960 - 1990
122
TABLE
7
Effect of Proposed Annexation by City of Wilmington on New
25
Hanover County Subareas: 1990 Projected Population
TABLE
8
Population Structure of New Hanover County by Age, 1970, 1980
27
and 1990 .
TABLE
9
Average Household Size, New Hanover County and United States,
30
1960 - 1990
TABLE
10
Population, Housing, and Household Size, New Hanover County,
32
1960 - 1990
TABLE
11
Subarea Population, Housing and Household Size, 1960 - 1990
33
TABLE
12
Housing by Tenure, Wilmington, New Hanover County and the United
35
.States, 1960 and 1970
TABLE
13
Residential Construction, Wilmington, Unincorporated New Hanover
37
County, Total Planning Area: 1970 - 1979
TABLE
14
Population, Housing, and Residential Land Use, New Hanover County,
40
1980
TABLE
15
Population, Housing, and Residential Land Use, New Hanover County,
41
1990 Projections

TABLE 16 Employment by Place of Work, New Hanover County, 1962 - 1978
FIGURE 2 Non -Industry Employment by Place of Work, New --Hanover County,
1962 - 1978
TABLE 17 Industry Employment by Place of Work, Selected Years 1963 - 1978,
New Hanover County and Wilmington SMSA
TABLE 18 New Hanover County Work Force as a Percentage of SMSA
and
FIGURE 3
FIGURE 4 Manufacturing and Non -Manufacturing Work Force as a Percent of
Total County Industrial Employment
FIGURE 5 Manufacturing and Work Force as a Percent of Total SMSA Industrial
Employment
TABLE 19 Number of Manufacturing Establishments and Value Added, City of
Wilmington, New Hanover County, the Wilmington SMSA, and
North Carolina 1963 - 1977
TABLE 20 Manufacturing Employment in New Hanover County, Selected Years,
1963 1978
FIGURE 6 Manufacturing Employment, New Hanover County, 1962 - 1978
TABLE 21 Acreage and Employee Inventory of Manufacturing Industries, 1975,
New Hanover County
FIGURE 7 Non -Manufacturing Employment, New Hanover County, 1962 - 1978
TABLE 22 Non -Manufacturing Employment New Hanover County, Selected Years
1963 - 1978
TABLE 23 Work Force by Land Use Categories, 1962 - 1978, New Hanover County
FIGURE 8 Employment by Land Use Category New Hanover County, 1962 - 1978
TABLE 24 Projected Work Force by Land Use Category through the Year 2000,
New Hanover County
TABLE
25
Non -Residential Land Use
Needs, 1980 - 1990, New Hanover County
TABLE
26
Projected Growth of Work
Force and Non -Residential Land in Use,
New Hanover County,
1980 - 1990
TABLE
27
Summary of Future Land Use Needs, 1980 - 1990, Planning Area
TABLE
28
Planning Area Land Use:
Percentage of Total Developed Land,
1980 and 1990
1.
PAGE
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48
49
51
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55
58
59
61
63
64
66
68
70
71
72
85
86

0
0
Population-" and Economic Growth
and Future Land Use Needs
Introduction
This population and economic study of New Hanover County is the second
such analysis prepared under the provisions of the North Carolina Coastal
Area Management Act (CAMA). The first study, completed in 1976, contained
a broad spectrum of descriptive information about the human and economic re-
sources of the County. The analysis was truly comprehensive in scope, and
was designed to meet the widest possible range of informational needs.
In contrast to the first CAMA study, this analysis has a much more
narrowly defined purpose -- to contribute directly -to -the development of a
traditional Future Land Use Plan and revised Policies for Growth and
Development. Foremost among the informational needs of the land use plan*
is an assessment of the future land area requirements of the primary users
of land -- residences, offices, commercial activities and manufacturing
industries. For convenience, these primary users are divided into two cate-
gorier, residential and non-residential. Residential land use needs are
typically estimated using population projections, while non-residential
needs are based upon changes in the local economy.
The planning "horizon year" for this CAMA Land Use Plan Update is 1990.
Therefore, past and present population and.economic trends have been analyzed
to estimate the additional land that will be needed for development from 1980
to 1990. All future land use acreage estimates are then increased by a factor
of 50%, to allow for flexibility in the real estate market.

.
-2-
In summary, the Future Land Use Plan will show the projected location
and spatial arrangement of development'in New.Hanover County in 1990 based
upon:
(1) projected land use needs
(2) proper planning location standards, and
(3) the desires of the public.
Ultimately, the Future Land Use Plan and accompanying Policies for"Growth and
Development should provide a blueprint for public and private decisions
about land use, economic development, and the provision of public facilities
and services.
While the population and economic projections --generated in this report
have been developed primarily to estimate future land area needs, the pro-
jections can and will have many other applications. For example, the size
and location of zoning districts can be directly tied to projected land area
needs. The probable size and location of County -wide water and sewer service
areas can be closely related to residential development densities as projected
for 1990. The need for additional transportation facilities to service and/
or guide anticipated land uses can also be assessed. Therefore, it is important
to keep in mind that while the projected population, economic, and land use
statistics may not in themselves influence growth, the resulting Future Land
Use Plan can.

Part i
Population Growth
and
Land Use Needs
I.

I. Summary .of
Population Trends . and Projections
Past Growth Trends
1) New Hanover County has experienced accelerated growth during the past
decade. The average annual growth rate increased from 1.5 percent for.
1960-70 to 2.16 percent during 1970-80.
2) Preliminary counts from the 1980 U.S. Census indicate that the County's
current population is 102,779, up from.82,996 in 1970.
3) The County's average annual growth rate has remained consistently
higher than that of the State and is presently growing at twice the
State's rate. Consequently, the County's share of the total state
population is increasing.
4) Through the past decade the average annual growth rate of 2.20 for Region
110" has surpassed the County's rate of 2.16-. The County's share of Region
11
0" population has .declined slightly to.47.9 percent. from 48.2 percent
in 1970 due to the accelerated growth of the other counties of the Region.
Population Projections
1) New Hanover County is expected to grow by 26,521 residents during the
1980's, with a projected total population of 129,300 in 1990.
2) Net in -immigration will account for 60 to 65 percent of the County's
growth during the 1980's with the remaining growth being attributed to
natural increase.
3) The projected population growth for the next decade represents an
average annual rate of 2.3 percent.
Subarea Trends
1) New Hanover County's population majority shifted from the City of
Wilmington to the unincorporated area between 1970 and 1980.
- 4 -

-5-
2) The unincorporated area is expected to attract the major share of the
County's population growth in the 1980's.
3) Revitalization efforts and annexation during the 1980's should work to
reverse Wilmington's decline in population.
Population Composition.
1) Three major changes in the age structure of the County's population are
expected during the 1980's.
1. The proportion of adults in the population is expected to in-
crease significantly.
2. The teenage population will decline as a percentage of the
total.
3. The population over 65 years of age will increase their
numbers by over 35 percent.
2) The County's average household size, which fell by approximately .75
persons over the past two decades, is expected to further decline to
a level of 2.50 persons per housing unit in 1990.

II. overall
Population Trends and Projections
A. Past Trends
County Growth Trends
An analysis of past growth trends affords the opportunity to present
information that is descriptive and also supportive of the overall popula-
tion projection for the County in 1990.
The recent growth history for New Hanover County is presented in Table 1
and Figure 1. Since 1930, the County's population has not grown at a uni-
form rate. The 1940-50 growth rate, for example, showed a large increase
over the previous de_c ae due to the County's rapid- ndustrial expansion
during the war years. The large increase for 1970-80 is a result of in-
dustrial expansion during the late 1960's and early 1970's. This develop-
ment activity caused a reduction of out -migration and increased in -migration,
resulting in a larger annual growth rate. Due to the time lag between the
expansion of industry and its impacts on spin off residential growth, the
impact of the area's industrial expansion on population did not fully emerge
until the recent 1980 Census.
The significance of the County's population.growth rate can be better
appreciated when it is discussed in terms of the number of years required
for the population to double at a given growth rate. At an annual rate of
1.5 percent, such as that which occurred during the 1960's in New Hanover
County, the population would double in, 46 years. At the 1970-80 rate of
2.2 percent, however, only 32 years would be required for the population
to double. 1

-7-
TABLE 1
NEW HANOVER COUNTY POPULATION GROWTH
CHARACTERISTICS FOR SELECTED YEARS
1930-1980
County Population
1930 . . . . . . .
. . . . . . 43,010
1940 . . . . . . .
. . . . . 47,935
1950 . . . . . .
. . . . . . . 63,272
1960 . . . . . .
. . . . . . . 71,742
1970 . . . .
. . . . . 82,996
1980 . . . . . .
. . . . . . . 102,779
Absolute Increase
1930-40 . . . . . .
. . 4,925
1940-50 . . . . . .
. . . . . 15,337
1950-60
8,470
1960-70
. . . 11,254
1970-80
19,783
Average Annual Growth Rate 11
1930-40 . . . . . .
. . . . . 1.1
percent
1940-50 . . . .
. . . . . 2.8
percent
1950-60 . . . . . .
. . . . . 1.3
percent
1960-70 . . . . . .
. . . 1.5
percent
1970-80 . . . . . .
. . ... . 2.2
percent
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census; Wilmington
Planning Department
21 Average annual geometric growth rates are derived using the compound interest
formula: Pn = Pn it + r )n
Where Po is the initial population, Pn is the population at the end of the
time period, n is the time period, and r is the average annual rate of change.

130
120
110
100
POPULATION 90
IN
THOUSANDS 80
70
60
50
40
30
1930
-8-
FIGURE
POPULATION GROWTH TRENDS
NEW HANOVER COUNTY
1930 - 1980 AND PROJECTED 1990
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990
YEAR
SOURCES U. S. BUREAU OF THE CENSUS,
WILMINGTON PLANNING DEPARTMENT
*SEE SECTION ON POPULATION PROJECTIONS FOR FULL DISCUSSION OF THE FIGURE FOR 1990.

- 9 - '
Comparisons to State and Region "0" Trends
A comparison of population growth rates at the State, regional and local
level is presented in Table 2. The average annual growth rate of the County
has traditionally been higher than that of the State. In the decade just
passed, the County's growth rate was nearly twice that of the State.
The relationship of the growth rates of the County and Region "0" V changed
dramatically during the 1970-80 period. For 1950-60 and 1960-70, the County's
growth rate was 2.5 and 2 times greater, respectively, than that of the region.
During the 1970's, however, rapid population growth in other counties of the
region caused the Region "0" average annual growth rate to exceed the County's.
While New Hanover County grew at 2.16 percent per year, the Regional population
increased by 2.20 percent annually.
The changes in the growth rates for the State, Region, and County are
further reflected in the County's share of total population of the State and
Region. The County's share of population of the larger areas is shown in
Table 3. As expected from the analysis of the State and County annual growth
rates, New Hanover County's share of the State population is continuing to in-
crease. Similarly, the comparison of the regional and county growth rates con-
firms the change in the trend of the County's share of the Region's population.
The County's share of Region "0" population has.declined from 48.2 percent in
1970 to 47.9 percent in 1980.
I/ Region "0" consists of New Hanover, Pender, Brunswick, and Columbus Counties.

TABLE Z
-COMPARISON OF POPULATION GROWTH RATES -
NEW HANOVER COUNTY, REGION "0", AND NORTH CAROLINA.
Population
1950 1960 - 1970 1980
New Hanover County 63,272 71,742 82,996 1023779
Region "0" 151,554 159,501 172,305 214,800,
North Carolina 4,061,929 4,556,155 5,082,059 5,713,416
Averaqe Annual Growth Rate
50-60 60-70 70-80
New Hanover County 1.30% 1.50% 2.16%
Region "0" 0.51% 0.7,9% 2.20%
North Carolina 1.15% 1.10% 1.18%
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census;
North Carolina Office of State Budget and Management.
TABLE
NEW HANOVER COUNTY SHARE OF STATE
AND REGIONAL POPULATIONS, 1950-1980
1950 1960
North Carolina 1.56% 1.57%
Region "0" 41.70% 45.00%
1970
1980
1.63%
1.80%
48.20%
47.85%
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census;
North Carolina Office of State Budget and Management.

B. Population Projections and Methodology
Projections
A projected population figure for 1990 must be determined to provide a
basis for estimating future land use needs and specifically the needs of future
residential development. The population projection is also useful for a wide
variety of other applications including estimates of future revenues, public
service needs assessments, and similar related purposes.
The method used in determining the projected population figure involved
obtaining projections from several reputable sources, then selecting the most
tenable projection based upon various evaluation methods. Following testing
and evaluation, the North Carolina Office of State Management and Budget (OSMB)
projection of 129,300 was accepted as the most probable population for New
Hanover County in 1990. The remainder of this section discusses supportive
evidence for using this figure as the projection.
Under the Coastal Area Management Act's land use planning guidelines, it
is recommended that local governments use.the OSMB projection unless sufficient
justification can be found to select another (15 NCAC 7B..0202(e)(1)). There
are several reasons for accepting the State's figure with a satisfactory level
of confidence.
First, comparisons with projections based on larger geographical areas sup-
port the OSMB figure. Using this technique, two very similar population pro-
jections were derived for the County; one by using Region "0" and the second
by using the State as bases for comparison. Using Region "0" as the larger
geographical area, the resulting county population projection is 129,483; with
the State representing the larger area, the projection is 129,666. These figures
are both within three -tenths of one percent of the OSMB figure.

- 12 -
A second source of supportive evidence is a population projection based
on estimates of future employment. Using past and projected ratios for employ-
ment, labor force and population, a 1990 population projection of 127,598 is
derived. While this figure is somewhat less than projections using other
methods, it is commonly known and accepted that population projections based
upon employment comparisons have traditionally produced conservative growth
projections.
Finally, the OSMB projection method is well equipped to handle migra-
tional effects, which have been a major factor in the past growth of the
County, and are expected to play a continued role in the future expansion of
area population. A County population of 129,300 in 1990 represents a growth
of 26,521 people during --the 1980's. Of this growth, 60 to 65 percent of it
can be attributed to people moving into the area from outside the County.
This is a continuation of the past trends of in -migration and is the primary
source of the County's growth.
All of the projections presented are thought to be close enough to pro-
vide reasonable support for the acceptance of 129,300 as the projected popula-
tion for New Hanover County in 1990. This translates to a 2.32 percent average
annual growth rate during the 1980's. Thus, the County is expected to witness
a larger average annual growth rate during the coming decade than was seen
during the decade just past, with in -migration continuing to account for the same
percentage of total population growth.

0
- 13 -
TABLE 4
Ratios of Employment to Labor Force and Labor Force to Population for New
Hanover County, For Selected Years.
1960
1970
1975
1978
Employment.to Labor Force
.9473
.9595
.9162
.9509
Labor Force to Population
.3816
.4046
.4334
.4390
Source: Employment Security Commission of North Carolina;
Wilmington Planning Department

- 14 -
Methodology for Population Projections
This section provides more detail on the techniques used in calculating
and evaluating population projections.
1) Larger Geographic Area Method
By fitting curves to each set of percentage of total population values
in Table 3, a projected percentage for 1990 can be extrapolated. The
projected percentages can then be applied to projected 1990 population
figure for the larger areas to derive a future population figure for the
County.
a) Region "0" -- The curve fit used for these data was a second
degree polynomial. This provides a sufficient curve fit for short term
projections, due to the inconsistency of the relationship of the data.
According to the second degree fit, New Hanover County will represent
46.56 percent of the Region's population in 1990; This converts to a
population of 129,483.
b) State -- The curve fit for these data is also a second degree
polynomial. It provides an excellent fit and projects that the County
will represent 2.035 percent of the State population in 1990. This con-
verts to a population of 129,666.
2) Employment -Based Method
This method uses a curve fitting technique in much the same way as the
previously described method. In this case simple linear regression was per-
fromed on the employment to labor force ratios to extrapolate a 1990 ratio of
93.16. This was applied to the estimated 1990 employment level of 56,880 to
arrive at a labor force of 61,056. A second linear regression function was
performed on the labor force to population ratios. The projected ratio was
47.85 and when applied to the labor force figure yielded a projected popula-
tion of 127,598. As stated previously, population projections based upon
employment forecasts have traditionally produced conservative growth levels. 1/
1/ Chapin, Jr., F. Stuart and Edward J. Kaiser. Urban Land Use Planning.
University of Illinois Press. 1979, p. 186.

- 15 -
3) Calculation for Net Migration
The technique involved applying the projected birth and death rates for
the next decade in New Hanover County to the projected County population for
each year of the decade. This provides a total natural increase figure for
the decade which can be subtracted from the total population change during
the decade to give the effects of net migration.

- 16 -
I I I. Subarea Trends and Projections
A. Introduction
The purpose of this section is to examine the population trends and
projections of New Hanover County in terms of its subareas. "The analysis
is presented from two perspectives using the following two geographic
divisions of the County:
1. Municipalities and the unincorporated area; and
2. By township.
These divisions and their respective subareas are shown on Maps 1 and 2.
The first division, municipalities versus the unincorporated area, provides
the opportunity to examine the growth of the County from an urban versus sub. -
urban perspective. The —second division basically provides a more detailed
analysis of growth within the unincorporated, or suburban area.
B. Municipalities Versus the Unincorporated Area
Trends
The dominant municipality in New Hanover County is the City of Wilmington.
Wilmington's share of the County.'s population, however,.has steadily decreased
from a majority of 61.4% in 1960 to 42.6% in 1980 as shown in Table 5. Con-
versely, the unincorporated area has increased its proportion of the County
population from 35.5% to a slight majority of 52.2% during the same period.
Analysis of buiding permit data provides some indication as to the reason
for this reversal. For example, between 1970 and 1980, three out of every four
of the more than 10,000 permits issued for single family residential construc-
tions were in the unincorporated area. This substantial change in single family
residential development activity in the unincorporated area was a key factor in
the population shift.

- 17 -
421\ 1/• I
WILMINGTON j)
NEW HANOVER COUNTY
PREPARED BY THE _
WILMINGTON PLANNING DEPARTMENT
Isso
76 Ste/ /, :- WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH
Yeµ'-�YYr
421 2
�.9 0
�ci
Q
Z.
Q'
I�
421
CAROLINA
j BEACH
i
MAP *1
MUNICIPALITIES AND
,;. KURE UNINCORPORATED AREA
BEACH
OF NEW HANOVER CO.
1 'ISBO
i
t
MUNICIPALITIES
C] UNINCORPORATED AREA

NEW HANOVER COUNTY
PREPARED BY THE
WILMINGTON PLANNING DEPARTMENT
s;w. �� IS80
CAP F R
T
3
WILMINGTON
i
WILMINGTON_
76
WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH
4 1` ' -
0
Q
Q
FEDERAL POINT-
' 421
' CAROLINA
BEACH
MAP . 2
E NEW HANOVER COUNTY
URE BEACH TOWNSHIPS

TABLE 5
NEW HANOVER COUNTY POPULATION BY MUNICIPALITY AND UNINCORPORATED AREA
1960-1990
Jurisdiction
1960
Population,
% of
County
1970
Population
% of
County
1980
Population.
% of
County_Population
1990
(PROJECTED)
% of
Count
New Hanover County
71,742.
100.0
82,996
100.0
102,779
.100.0
129,300
100.0
Unincorporated Area
25,521
35.5
33,069
39.8
53,601
.52.2
76,582
59.2
City of Wilmington
44,013
61.4
46,169
55.6
43,779
42.6
44,518
34.4
Wrightsville Beach
723
1.0
1,701
2.1
2,786
2.7
4,500
3.5
Carolina Beach
1,192
1.7
1,663
2.0
.2,067
2.0
2,652
2.1
Kure Beach
293
0.4
.394
0..5..
54-6
0..5
1,048
0.8
Sources: U.S. Bureau of the Census; Carolina, Kure and Wrightsville Beaches,
Wilmington Planning Department

- 20 -
The beach municipalities continued to experience --population increases during
the 1970's according to preliminary 1980 census figures. The percent increase
for Wrightsville and Carolina Beaches was less than that of the 1960's while Kure
Beach had a slight increase in its rate of growth.
In summary, the comparison of growth trends in terms of municipalities
versus the unincorporated area indicates that the large majority of growth is
occuring in the unincorporated area at the expense of the City of.Wilmington.
Although the beach areas are growing at a steady rate, their combined absolute
increase represents less than one -tenth that which occurred in the unincorpo-
rated area.
Projections
The 1990 projected populations presented in Table 5 generally show a.con-
tinuation of the trends outlined above. Figures for the beach municipalities were
obtained from their 1980 land use plan updates. The City of Wilmington projec-
tion was derived by the technique of simple regression of the 1960, 1970 and
1980 percentage of the total County population. The resulting 1990 projected
percentage was then applied to the projected county total of 129,300 to obtain
the City figure.
Similarly, the figure for the unincorporated area was obtained by subtracting
the projected municipal totals from the projected total population of the County.
As a result, the unincorporated area population will comprise 59.2% of the County
total in 1990. This percentage matches that obtained by simple regression using
the 1960, 1970 and 1980 "percent of the County."
According to recent studies, there is a sufficient amount of suitable un-
developed land located in the unincorporated area to accommodate this projected
1/
growth
Wilmington -.New Hanover County Comprehensive Planning Program, .1980`CAMA !and
Use'Plan Update, Classification of Soils for Septic Tank Suitability in New Hanover
County, 1980.

- 21
C. Townships
Trends
As shown on Map 2, New Hanover County is comprised of five townships.
The Wilmington .Township contains all areas within the City of Wilmington in-
cluding the satellite area of Echo Farms. Wrightsville Beach is located in
Harnett Township and Carolina and Kure Beaches are in the Federal Point Town-
ship.
Table 6 shows population trends in each of the townships over the past
three decennial censuses. As the figures indicate, each of the townships has
had steady population increases throughout the 20-year period, with the ex-
ception of Wilmington which lost residents between 1970,and 1980. Furthermore,
had the city not annexed a considerable area in 1965, the period between 1960
and 1970 would have also shown a decline.
As previously stated, Wilmington's percentage of the total County popula-
tion has consistently declined over the last two decades, while each of the
other townships have significantly increased their shares of the total popula-
tion. However, there is a substantial difference in the percentage of total
population and the rates of change in the other townships. For example, the
Harnett Township increased its share of the County total by 5.2 percentage
points between 1970 and 1980 while the increase in the Cape Fear and Federal
Point townships was 1.7 percentage points each.
The Harnett and Masonboro Townships continue to attract the largest share
of growth in New Hanover County, showing 9,512 and 6,280 person increases,
respectively, during the 1970's. The Federal Point and Cape Fear Townships,
while showing substantial growth percentagewise (59.3% and 49.6% respectively),
did not show an absolute increase near the magnitude of the Harnett and Mason-
boro increases.

TABLE 6
NEW HANOVER COUNTY POPULATION BY TOWNSHIP '
1960 - 1990
Township
1960
of
Population County
1970
Population
%, of
County
1980
Population
% of
County
: 1990
% of
Population County
(Projected)
CAPE FEAR
4,238
5.9
6,734
8.1
10,073
9.8
15,301
11.8FEDERAL
POINT
3,234
4.5
613
6.2
8,147
7.9
12,399
9.6
HARNETT
14,427
20.1
17,427
21.0
26,939
26.2
37,988
29.4
MASONBORO
5,830
8.1
7,553
9.1
13,841
13.5
19,094
14.8
WILMINGTON
44,013
61.4
46,169
55.6
43,779
42.6
44,518
34.4
NEW HANOVER
COUNTY TOTAL
71,742
100
.82,996
100
102,779
100
129,300
100
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census and Wilmington Planning Department

- 23 -
0
In the coming decade the area outside the City of Wilmington can expect
to increase its majority of population. According to preliminary 1980 census
figures, the decrease in Wilmington's share of the County population was approxi-
mately 13 percent. This pattern has been observed over the past forty years,
despite annexations of large areas during that period. This trend is expected
to show a slight reversal during the 1980's due to additional annexations and
revitalization efforts. In spite of these efforts, however, areas outside the
City will still absorb the majority of population growth.
Projections
Based on the percent of County population trends for each township shown
in Table 6, projected percentages were derived for the year 1990 using simple
regression. The projected percentages were then applied to the projected total
county population figure of 129,300 to obtain the individual township projections
also shown in Table 6.
These projections reflect a continuation of the trends identified in the
preceding section. In addition to being statistically sound, these trends are
supported by empirically observed patterns of subdivision activity during the
period of 1974-1979.
D. Impact of Annexation on Subarea Growth
Annexation by the City of Wilmington would alter the projections presented
in this section for various subareas. Table 7 indicates what effect proposed
annexation, currently under study by the City, would have on various subareas.
As Table 7 reveals, the proposed annexation would increase the City's share
of the total County population in 1990 by roughly 5 percent. This would add
approximatly 6600 residents to the City population. The Masonboro Township would

` - 24 -
supply the majority of residents (approximately 6,000), while Harnett Town-
ship losses to the City would be negligible (approximately 600 residents).

-25-
Table 7
EFFECT OF PROPOSED ANNEXATION BY CITY OF WILMINGTON
ON NEW HANOVER COUNTY SUB AREAS: 1990
PROJECTED POPULATION
WITHOUT ANNEXATION
OF
POPULATION COUNTY
WITH ANNEXATION
% OF
POPULATION COUNTY
CITY OF WILMINGTON
44,518
34.4
51,113
39.5
UNINCORPORATED AREA
76,582
59.2
69,987
54.1
HARNETT TOWNSHIP -- -
37,988
29.4
37,332
28.9
MASONBORO TOWNSHIP
19,094
14.8
13,155
10.2
Source: Wilmington Planning Department

-26-
IV. Changes in Population,
Composition and Housing Deeds
A. Introduction
Changes in the composition of New Hanover County's population will play
a key role in shaping the pattern of urban growth during the 1980's. This
will be especially true in the area of housing, the demand for which will be
a function of age structure,and family and household characteristics. While
it is difficult to predict precise changes in the character of the population
at the local level, there are several demographic trends that have been
identified at the local level, and confirmed nationally over the past two
decades. In the following sections, several of these trends are discussed
with an eye toward estimating their potential impact on future housing and
residential land use needs.
B. Changes in Age Structure
Three major changes in the age structure of the County's population are
expected during the 1980's. First, the proportion of adults in the population
is expected to increase significantly. As is the case across the nation, large
numbers of children born during the post-war period are now reaching maturity
in New Hanover County. This is causing the 25 to 44 year old age group in
particular, to swell its ranks. The County's 35 to 44 year old age group is
expected to.show the most dramatic gain with a 70% increase by 1990. (See
Table 8.)
Second, while the teenage population of the County will decline as a per-
centage of the total, a new surge in the number of children less than 5 years
of age is anticipated, due to the number of women entering their childbearing
years.
Third, improved health care and increased life expectancies will continue to
push a large percentage of the local and national population into the elderly

- 27 -
TABLE 8
POPULATION STRUCTURE OF NEW HANOVER COUNTY
BY AGE, 1970, 1980, AND 1990
Change % Change
AGE GROUP 1970 1980 1990 1970-1980 1980-1990
Under 5
7,117
7,115
11,066
-0.0
+55.5
5 -
14
16,483
16,359
.17,916
-0.8
+ 9.5
15 -
24
14,559
19,350
19,187
+32.9
- 0.8
25 -
34
10,799
18,331
24,366
+69.8
+32.9
35 -
44
9,590
12,355
21,016
+28.8
+70.1
45 -
54
9,956
9,906
12,804
- 0.5
+29.3
55 -
64
7,527
9,492
9,496
+26.1
+ 0.0
Over
65
6,965
9,899
13,414
+42.1
+35.5
TOTAL 82,996 102,807 129,265 +23.9 +25.7
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census for 1970 figures
N.C. Office of State Budget and Management
for 1980 and 1990 figures

- 28
ranks. The increasing attractiveness of New Hanover County as a retirement
area will no doubt foster this growth as well. Table 8 indicates that persons
over 65 years of age will increase their numbers by over 35% during the 1980's.
C. Household Characteristics
The number of new households formed in the coming decade will be reflected
by several dominant local and national trends including declining household
and family size, and a reduction in the proportion of husband -wife households
due to anticipated gains in single parent and non -family households.
Locally, steady declines in average household size have been observed during
the past two decades. Table 9 illustrates these consistent decreases and facil-
itates household size -comparisons between areas. Since 1960, New Hanover County's
average household size has declined by roughly.75 persons per housing unit.
This means that today's lifestyles require five homes in 1980 to house the same
number of people that four homes accommodated in 1960.
The rapid growth of non -family households has been a major reason for the
sharp decline in the average U.S. household size during the 1970's. Nationally,
non -family households increased by 66% between 1970 and 1979 compared with only
1/
a 12% growth in family households.
The figures in Table 9 show that as New Hanover County has become more
urbanized, the average household size of area homes has become smaller than the
national average. This trend has become especially noticeable in the City of
Wilmington, where the number of persons per household fell dramatically from
1970 to 1980. While average household sizes are expected to continue to
United States Department of Commerce News, "Non -family Households Have In-
creased by Two -Thirds Since 1970, Census Report Shows" November 26, 19.79.

-29-
decline at the national and local levels, demographic experts/anticipate that
future declines will be much less than those of the 1970's.
1/
United States Department of Commerce News, "Less Change Ahead for American
Family? Census Bureau Demographers Think So." February 11, 1979.

-30-
TABLE 9
AVERAGE HOUSEHOLD SIZE
NEW HANOVER COUNTY
AND UNITED STATES
1960
1970 _
1980
1990
New Hanover County
3.43
3.12 -
2.69
2.50
City of Wilmington
3.36
2.95
- 2.45
2.20
Unincorporated County
-
-
2.91
2.70
Planning Area
-
-
2.70
2.51
United States
3.33
3.14
2.74
2.58
Source: .1960 and 1970 figures and all figures for the
United States are from U.S. Census Bureau. 1980
and 1990 figures are estimates of Wilmington
Planning Department.

- 31 -
D. Gross Housing Needs: 1980 to 1990
New Hanover County, which saw its housing stock increase by over 11,800
units during the 1970's, will net an additional 12,300 units during the 1980's,
after demolitions. This estimate was obtained by dividing the projected total
population by the projected average household size for 1990. An allowance was
made for an estimated vacancy rate of 7% in 1990, to arrive at the total hous-
ing unit figure shown in Table 10.
For the area of the County within the current Wilmington City limits, a
net increase of approximately 1,873 units is forecast for 1990. This figure
alone does not present a complete picture of the housing activity forecast for
the City between 1980 and 1990, since demolitions -will work to offset new con-
struction. To illustrate, in Table 11 the assumption is made that about 5%
(1,000 units) of the City's 1980 housing stock will be razed during the 1980's.
Thus, roughly 2,900 new units will have to be built in the City in the next ten
years to achieve the 1900 unit net increase (after demolitions) by the end of
the decade.
In contrast to the modest increase in housing forecast for the City, the
unincorporated area of the County will continue to reap the largest share of
area residential construction. By 1990, the unincorporated County should see
over 9,000 units added to its current housing inventory, representing over three -
fourths of the net increase in total County housing during the coming decade.
E. Housing Demand By Type
Owier-Occupied Versus'Rental Housing
For New Hanover County, future housing construction is expected to place
a greater emphasis on owner -occupied units. Private sector rental housing con-
struction is expected to fall almost entirely, resulting in a tighter rental
market and associated declines in area vacancy rates.

2/
1980
3/
1990
(Projected)
- 32 -
TABLE 10
POPULATION, HOUSING, AND HOUSEHOLD SIZE
NEW HANOVER COUNTY
(INCLUDING BEACH COMMUNITIES)
POPULATION
TOTAL
HOUSING
UNITS
OCCUPIED
HOUSING
UNITS
AVERAGE
HOUSEHOLD
SIZE
71,742
34,578
20,932
3.43
82,996
31,475
26,623
3.12
102,779
43,287
38,208
2.69
129,300
55,594
51,702
2.50
1/
Source: U.S. Census of Population
?/ Source: U.S. Census of Population, Preliminary Counts, October, 1980
3/ Assumes a 7% vacancy rate including beach communities (1980 vacancy
rate: 10.8% County -wide). Projections by N.C. State Office of Budget
and Management and Wilmington Planning Department.

t
TABLE 11
SUBAREA POPULATION, HOUSING, AND HOUSEHOLD SIZES
CITY OF W]IMTNGTON UNTNCORPORATFn NEW HANOVFR CnIINTY PIANNING AREA
YEAR
POPULATION
TOTAL
HOUSING
UNITS
OCCUPIED
HOUSING
UNITS
AVERAGE
HOUSEHOLD
SIZE
POPULATION
TOTAL
HOUSING
UNITS
OCCUPIED
HOUSING
UNITS
AVERAGE
HOUSEHOLD
SIZE
TOTAL
HOUSING
POPULATION UNITS
OCCUPIED
HOUSING
UNITS
AVERAGE
HOUSEHOLD
SIZE
1960
44,013
14,158
13,111
3.36
-
-
-
-
- -
-
-
1970
46,169
17,223
15,639
2.95
33,069
10,554
-
-
- -
-
-
1980
43,779
19,205
17,869
2.45
53,904
19,817
18,537
2.91
97,687. 39,022
36,186
2.70
1990
44.518
21,078
20,235
2.20
76,582
29,241
28,364 3/
2.70
121,100 50,319
48,599
2.51
(Projected)
Y All figures are without potential annexations.
2/ Assumptions: The City-wide vacancy rate will fall from 8% in 1980 to 4% in 1990. Also, 5% of the 1980 housing stock
for Wilmington will be demolished during the 1980's.
3/
Assume a 3% vacancy rate.

- 34 -
Several changes in demographic and economic conditions will combine to
shape the increased demand for owner -occupied housing. High interest rates,
caused by inflation, will work to slow new construction and will cause the price
of all housing types to escalate. New rental housing, except that built under
federal insurance or subsidy programs, will be particularly hard hit.
Nationally, this is due in part to rent increases which have lagged well be-
hind increases in construction and operating costs --of rental housing. As
evidence, the Consumer Price Index for rental units rose only 75% from 1967 to
2/
1979, while the overall CPI increased 116%.
Finally, the County's burgeoning post-war baby boom generation, which con-
tributed to a high demand for apartments in the early 1970's, will be moving
into the home buying age bracket. A11 of these factors lead experts to predict
a dim future for private sector rental housing, with owner -occupied units
accounting for as much as three fourths of all new housing to be built during
3/
the coming decade.
Despite the lack of up-to-date owner -occupancy information for New Hanover
County, statistics for 1960 and 1970 are indicative of the County's tendency to
follow national trends (Table 12). While precise predictions of future local
ownership percentages cannot be made with certainty, it is safe to say that new
rental housing construction will no doubt decline markedly during the 1980's,
compared to the 1970's.
Bureau of National Affairs, Inc. Housing and Development Reporter Current
Developments, "Landrieu Sees Steady Decline in Rental Housing Production" 3-3-80
p. 833.
2/
, "Moderate Increase in Multifamily
Starts Predicted for 1980's" 9-17-79, p. 349.
3/ Bureau of National Affairs, Inc. "Annual Housing Demand for 80's Estimated
at 2.3 to 2.7 Million Units" 12-24-79 pp. 645-6.

- 35
TABLE 12
HOUSING BY TENURE
WILMINGTON, NEW HANOVER COUNTY, AND THE UNITED STATES
% Owner
Occupied
% Rental
Occupied
1960
1970
1960
1970
WILMINGTON 50.5
51.5
49.5
48.5
NEW HANOVER 58.3
62.9
41.7
37.1
UNITED STATES 61.7
62.9-----
38.1
37.1
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census

- 36 -
Single Family Versus Multifamily Housing
As New Hanover County has become urbanized, the mix of single and multi-
family construction has established a clear difference of development between
the City and the unincorporated County. A recent survey of existing land use
revealed that multifamily units today comprise only -about 2% of the total
l/
housing stock in the unincorporated area. In contrast, over 44%,of all
homes in the City are of multifamily construction.
Residential construction activities during the-1970's did little to change
this development pattern. Building permit records for the decade indicate
that 94% of all residential construction authorized in the unincorporated
area involved single family development. By contrast, about 73% of all resi-
dential construction authorized inside the City was for multifamily units.
While it is known that not all units authorized locally were actually completed,
the figures provide a good indication of the relative distribution and levels
of construction activity of single versus multifamily units.
Several national trends and predictions for the 1980's may provide some
indication of what is in store for New Hanover County in the -near future. For
example, most housing experts agree that the current national mix of 70% single
family, 30% multifamily construction will continue through at least the early
1980's.. While the rising costs of single family homes will continue to make
multifamily development financially attractive to the homeowner, lagging rents,
exclusionary zoning, and rent controls will work to dampen the overall growth
of multifamily production nationwide. Consequently, some forecasters have
1/
Wilmington -New Hanover Comprehensive Planning. Program, 1980 CAMA Land Use
Plan Update,'Analysis of'Existing Land Use, August, 1980.

TABLE 13
RESIDENTIAL
CONSTRUCTION, WILMINGTON, UNINCORPORATED
NEW
HANOVER COUNTY,
TOTAL
PLANNING AREA:
1970-1979
Number of Units
Percentages
Totals
y
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
197U-1979
Subarea
Wilmington
Single Family
437
369
192
35
49
60
58
55
65
85
1,405
27%
Multi -Family
411
314
1,171
1,197
412
2
150
27
78
3,762
73%
Total
848
683
1,363
1,232
461
62
$$
205
92
163
5,167
100%
Unincorporated
New Hanover County
r.
Single Family
701
752
866
830
427
420
510
613
619
612
6,350
94%
Multi -Family
20
66
32
269
2
0
4
4
0
397
6%
Total
721
818
898
1,099
429
420
ST0
617
623
612
6,747
100%
Total Planning Area
Single Family
1,138
1,121
1,058
865
476
480
568
668
684
697
7,755
65%
Multi -Family
431
380
1,203
1,466
414
2
154
31
78
4,159
35%
Total
1,569
1,501
2,261
2,331
890
_ 482
S-61T
822
742
775
11,914
100%
Source: Building Inspection Departments, Wilmington and New Hanover County.
NOTE: Wilmington has at one time issued permits within 1 mile jurisdiction.

- 38 -
predicted little or no decrease in multifamily housing as a percent of total
1/
housing starts.
Locally, several factors point toward a growing interest in multifamily,.
owner -occupied housing. For example, prime waterfront sites with good access
are diminishing in both number and total acreage county -wide. When site -
specific environmental constraints are combined with this general decline in
available waterfront locations, the result is increased incentive for cluster -
type housing developments. Recent efforts at revising County land use controls
to add more flexibility for multifamily development are a reflection of this
trend.
Thus, despite apparent local consumer preferences for single family housing,
New Hanover County's demonstrated tendency to follow national trends could show
its affects during the 1980's. With the continued heavy in -migration of new
residents and the added possibility of a County -wide water and sewer system,
the presence of multifamily developments in the unincorporated area could become
a reality in the near future.
1/
Bureau of National Affairs, Housing and Development Reporter, Current
Developments, "Moderate Increase in Multifamily Starts Predicted for 1980's,"
9-17-79, pp. 349-50.
, "Strong Housing Demand, Ample Mortgage Funds
are Forecast for 1978" 9-18-78, pp. 445-6.
"Rental Housing Facing Crisis, Says Janis,"
5-14-79, p. 445.

-39-
M Residential Land Use Needs: igSo-iggo
Estimates of future land area needs for residential development can be
made using the population and housing projections prepared in the previous
section. As Tables 14 and 15 indicate, the 1990 residential acreage estimates
for the City of Wilmington and the Unincorporated Area are a function of
several variables including: overall population growth and subarea distribu-
tion, average household size, housing vacancy rates, and current and projected
development densities.
Note, for example that in both the _City and the Unincorporated County,
declining average household sizes will increase the number of housing units
necessary to accommodate the area's future population. At the same time,
rising land costs, increasing emphasis on multifamily development, and the
prospect of County water and sewer service will work to reduce the amount of
land needed for new housing. As private sector rental housing production
falters, and new construction of all types becomes more costly, vacancy rates
will decline. To a lesser degree, this too will cause a reduction in the
amount of housing and land needed.
The overwhelming population growth of the Unincorporated County in re-
lation to the City, however, will have the most telling impact upon future
land needs. As Table 15 shows, the Unincorporated Area will need more than
ten times as much new land set aside for residential development, compared
to the City. It is important, therefore, that the Planning Area's public
policies and investments work to meet the needs of this anticipated growth.

- 40
TABLE 14
POPULATION, HOUSING AND RESIDENTIAL LAND USE
NEW HANOVER COUNTY
1980
Wilmington
Unincorporated
County
Planning
Area
.New Hanover
County,
Population
43,779
53,904
97,687
102,779
Housing Units
19,205
19,817
39,022
43,287
Occupied
17,869
18,537
36,186
38,208
Vacant
1,336
1,280
2,836
5,079
Average Household Size
2.45
2.91
2.70
2.69
Residentially Developed
3,252
10,631
13,883
-
Acreage
Housing Units/Residential
5.91
1.86
2.81
-
Acre
Source: Wilmington Planning Department and 1980
Preliminary Counts, U.S. Bureau of Census.

- 41 -
TABLE 15
POPULATION, HOUSING AND RESIDENTIAL LAND USE
NEW HANOVER COUNTY
1990 PROJECTIONS
Wilmington
Unincorporated
County
Planning,
Area
New Hanover
County
Population
44,518
76,582
121,100
129,300
Housing Units
21,078
29,241
50,319
55,594
Occupied
20,235
28,364
48,599
51,702
l/
Vacant
843
877
1,720
3,892
Average Household Size
2.20
2.70
2.51
2.50
Net Increase in Housing
Units (1980-1990).
1,873
9,42+
11,297
12,307.
Avg. No. of New Housing
Units/Acre 2/
7.0
3.5
3.8
-
Additional Residential
Acreage Required
268
2,693
2,961
-
+50% (Market Flexibility)
134
1,347
1,481
-
Total Additional Residential
Acreage
392
4,040
4,432
-
Numbers of vacant units are based upon assumed vacancy rates in
1990 of 4% in the City, and 3% in the Unincorporated Area.
2/
Future densities for new development are based upon staff evaluation
of recent local and national development trends.
SOURCE: Wilmington Planning Department, 1980

C
Economic Growth
M.
Land Use � eads
11

- 43
1) As New Hanover County is becoming more dense►y settled, it is strengthen-
ing its role as the trade and service center of southeastern North
Carolina; manufacturing employment is becoming less dominant.
2) While manufacturing employment in New Hanover County since the early 1960's
has exhibited sporadic growth, non -manufacturing employment (principally
trade and service industries) has shown steady, consistent gains.
3) For the first time in several decades, manufacturing industries now pro-
vide fewer than one in four jobs in New Hanover County.
4) In the early 1960's nine out of ten jobs in the Wilmington SMSA (Brunswick
and New Hanover Counties) were in New Hanover County; by 1978, that figure
had fallen to eight in ten.
5) In the coming decade, it is projected that New Hanover County will have
12,700 new jobs; of which 5,000 will be office and institutional, 4,000
will be commercial and 3,000 will be in manufacturing.

-44-
II. Assessing the Economy: Data Used
In evaluating the economic conditions of a local area, two types of
basic information are available:
1) labor force statistics, which describe the residents of an area
with respect to how many are employed or unemployed, and what
their socio-economic characteristics are; and
2) work force statistics, which describe the type and number of
JOBS o fered by New Hanover County employers.
Members of the New Hanover County labor force may have jobs outside the
County. Conversely, members of the work force may be residents of other
counties who commute into New Hanover County for employment.
The primary purpose of preparing this economic analysis is to estimate
and set aside proper amounts of land necessary to meet the future develop-
ment needs of New Hanover County's employers. The analysis seeks to estimate
the number and type of jobs that will be created during the 1980 to 1990
decade. Therefore, work force statistics, rather than labor force figures,
are used in this report to analyze industrial growth trends within the County
and to estimate future non-residential land use needs.
In describing the industrial mix of the County, it should be noted that
the word "industries" refers to both manufacturing and non -manufacturing types.
The future land area needs of trade, government, service, and other "industries"
are therefore also addressed in this section. Collectively, these industries
make up the non-residential element of all developed land in New Hanover County.
Unless otherwise indicated, the work force data used in the analysis in-
cludes only "Industry Employment by Place of Work" as provided by the North
Carolina Employment Security Commission (ESC). "Agricultural Employment" and
"All Other Non-agricultural Employment" (including non-agricultural self-employed
workers, unpaid family workers, and domestic workers in private households) are

- 45 -
reported under labor force by the ESC. For this reason, employment figures
listed under these two "Non -Industry Employment" categories are not included
in the land use needs analysis. The effect of omitting these workers from
the needs assessment is negligible, since many of the workers are employed
within private houses, on farms, etc. For completeness, however, Table 16
provides total employment figures by place of work including both Industry and
Non -Industry workers. Figure 2 presents estimates of just the Non -Industry
portion of the total County work force. While the ESC reported a total of
41,780 jobs in 1978, the actual number of persons working in the County was
48,190 or 15.3% more (See Table 16.)

INDUSTRY EMPLOYMENT
BY PLACE OF WORK 1/
Manufacturing
Non -Manufacturing
NON -INDUSTRY EMPLOYMENT
BY PLACE OF WORK
Agricultural Employment
by place of work
All other Non -Agricultural
employment by place of
work 2/
TOTAL EMPLOYMENT 1/
BY PLACE OF WORK
TABLE 16
EMPLOYMENT BY PLACE OF WORK
NEW HANOVER COUNTY
1962-1969
1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969
21,300
22,220
22,940
24,500
26,000
26,990
28,560
30,600
6,400
6,540
6,520
6,940
7,570
7,880
8,350
9,380
14,900
15,680
16,420
17,560
18,430
19,110
20,210
21,220
5,320
5,580
5,930
5,940
5,910
5,790
5,830
6,010
c
760
860
780
640
630
570
530
490
0
a�
4,560
4,720
5,150
5,300
5,280
5,220
5,300
5,520'
c
26,620
27,800
28,870
30,440
31,910
32,780
34,390
36,610
0
.,
1/ Figures taken directly from North Carolina Employment Security Commission Data.
2/ Includes Nonagricultural self-employed workers, unpaid family workers, and domestic workers in private
households.

TABLE 16
(Continued)
EMPLOYMENT BY PLACE
OF WORK
NEW
HANOVER COUNTY
1970-1978
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
INDUSTRY EMPLOYMENT
BY PLACE OF WORK 1/
32,350
31,380
34,330
37,580
38,890
36,570
38,230
39,160
41,780
Manufacturing
9,830
9,030
10,160
10,700
10,570
9,710
10,240
9,890
9,880
Non -Manufacturing
22,520
22,350
24,170
26,880
28,320
26,860
27,990
29,270
31,900
NON -INDUSTRY EMPLOYMENT 2/
BY PLACE OF WORK
5,860
5,740
6,040
6,120
6,180
6,240
6,300
6,360
6,410
Agricultural Employment
by place of work
470
470
450
450
430
410
390
370
350
,
All other Non -Agricultural
Employment by place of
�
work 3/.
5,390
5,270
5,590
5,670
5,750
5,830
5,910
5,990
6,060
'
TOTAL EMPLOYMENT 4/
BY PLACE OF WORK
38,210
37,120
40,370
43,700
45,070
42,810
44,530
45,520
48,190
l/ Figures taken directly from North Carolina Employment Security Commission Data.
2/ Figures for period after 1972 are estimates of the Wilmington - New Hanover Planning Department (Linear Regression
Method).
3/ Includes Nonagricultural self-employed workers, unpaid family workers, and domestic workers in private households.
4/ Figures for period after 1972 are estimates of the Wilmington -New Hanover Planning Department.

.•.•
40 00-
WORK
FORCE
3000-
• • •
...
FIGURE 2
NON -INDUSTRY EMPLOYMENT BY PLACE OF WORK
1962 TO 1978
NEW HANOVER COUNTY
E.S.C. FIGURES -,-PLANNING
DEPT. ESTIMATES
MENNEN
sommom
EMEMEMEMMENEEMEM
mommommommommoom
MEEMEMEMEMEEMMEM
mommommoommommom
EMEEMEEMEMEEMMEM
mommommommommomm
MEMMEMEMEMEEMMEM
Emommommoommoomm
amommmo
MEN
NONAGRICULTURAL SELF-EMPLOYED
WORKERS, UNPAID FAMILY WORKERS,
A DOMESTIC WORKERS IN PRIVATE
HOUSEHOLDS
AGRICULTURAL
EMPLOYMENT
1962 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78
YEAR
N.C. EMPLOYMENT SECURITY COMMISSION * WILMINGTON-NEW HANOVER PLANNING DEPT:
I
4
co
I

TABLE .1 7
INDUSTRY EMPLOYMENT BY PLACE OF WORK
SELECTED YEARS 1963-1978
NEW HANOVER COUNTY AND 14ILMINGTON SMSA
NEW HANOVER COUNTY
AVERAGE INDUSTRY WORK FORCE
EST MiATES
% OF
INDUSTRY
WORK FORCE
1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978
1963 1966 1969 1972 1975
1978
Total Industry
Employment
22,2110 26,000
30,600
34,330
36,570
41,780
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
Mamrfacturinu
6,540 7,570
9,380
10,160
9,710
9,880
29.4
29.1
30.7
29.6
26.6
23.7
Non -Manufacturing
15,680 18,430
21,220
24,170
26,860
31,900
70.6
70.9
69.3
70.4
73.4
76.3
WILMINGTON SMSA
AVERAGE INDUSTRY WORK FORCE ESTIMATES
% OF
INDUSTRY WORK FORCE
1963 1966 1969 1912 1975 1978
1963 1966 1969 1972 1975
1978
Total Industry
Employment
24,410 28,520
34,970
43,220
45.400
51,180
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
Manufacturing
6,870 7,950
10,590
12,720
13,030
13,220
28.1
27.9
30.3
29.4
28.7
25.8
Non-Mauufacturing
17,540 20.570
24,380
30,500
32.370
37,960
71.9
72.1
69.7
70.6
71.3
74.2
r
.tom
Source: North Carolina Employment Security Coimuission and Wilmington - New Hanover Planning Department

. - 50
0
III. New Hanover County
and the Wilmington SMSA
A. Total Work Force
Figure 3 and Table 18 show the changes that have occurred during the
196O's and 1970's in the number of jobs in New Hanover County relative to
the Wilmington SMSA (Brunswick and New Hanover Counties combined). Two
trends may be discerned from the information provided. First, it is clear
that while New Hanover County continues to supply the bulk of all employment
opportunities in the SMSA, the percentage of employment opportunities offered
in the County fell -'substantially during the 19601s In 1963, nine out of
ten jobs in the two -county area were in NeW Hanover County. By 1972, this
figure had fallen to fewer than eight jobs in ten. These figures are a re-
sult of the rapid industrial growth experienced by Brunswick County during
that period, relative to New Hanover.
From 1972 to 1978, however, the location of job offerings exhibited a
reversal of the earlier trend, with slight gains in the percentage of SMSA
employment posted in New Hanover County. This most recent trend may be
indicative of the growth in services which typically follow increases in
manufacturing employment, and which also tend to locate close to population
concentrations such as those in New Hanover County.
The figures lend support to the notion that the area is experiencing
a spillover effect, as the urbanized core of New Hanover County continues
to expand, forcing major new industrial land users to seek locations across
the river in Brunswick County. The proposed Brunswick Energy Company Oil
Refinery is a case in point. Planned for a 1,990 acre tract of land a
short distance across the river from the Wilmington urbanizing area, the

- 51 -
FIG
60
50
NEW HANOVER COUNTY
40
cWi
c
LL
0
30
�
O
0
3
..
20
10
1972 1975 1978
1963
1966 1969
YEAR
SOURCE: N.G. EMPLOYMENT SECURITY COMMISSION AND wILMIN070N-Ntw ngNuvtN r1-Annmw ucrMn. ncn.
I
NEW HANOVER COUNTY WORK FORCE .AS A PERCENTAGE OF S.M.S.A.
WORK FORCE
TABLE IS
TOTAL WORK FORCE
SMSA
NEW HANOVER COUNTY
NEW HANOVER COUNTY
% OF SMSA
1963.
24,410
22,220
91.0
1966
28,520
26,000
91.2
1969'
34,790
30,600
88.0
1972
43,220
34,330
79.4
1975
45,400
36,570
80.6
1978
51,180
41,780
81.6
Source: North Carolina Employment Security Commission and Wilmington -
New Hanover Planning Department

. <e'
S&TM
refinery is a good example of an industry which requires the abundant and
less expensive land area available in nearby counties. At the same time,
however, the refinery and its employees must also have the transportation
network, utilities and services spawned or provided by the City of Wilmington.
Consequently, in the development of the Future Land Use Plan, it is important
that New Hanover County be recognized as the urban center of a much larger,
growing region.
B. Manufacturing Versus Non -Manufacturing Employment
The previous section indicated that the industrial work force of New
Hanover County as a percentage of all Wilmington SMSA workers fell markedly
during the 1960's but remained relatively stable -during the 1970's. Using
employment figures for manufacturing and non -manufacturing industrial employ-
ment, it can be further shown that manufacturing is becoming less important
in New Hanover County relative to manufacturing in the SMSA as a whole.
To see this, attention should be focused on the lower portion of each
vertical bar in Figures 4 and 5. Note that while SMSA manufacturing employ-
ment exhibited steady increases from 1963 to 1978, manufacturing jobs in
New Hanover County appear to have reached a peak in the early 1970's.
Additionally, Figures 4 and 5 show that since about 1969, manufacturing
employment as a percentage of total employment has been falling in both the
County and the SMSA. This is not surprising in that declines in manufactur-
ing employment as a percentage of total employment have been a national
trend during the same period. This trend has not resulted from production
cutbacks, but from increased mechanization and improved technology.
Noteworthy, however,.is the fact that manufacturing employment as a
percentage fell faster in New Hanover County during the 1980's than in the
SMSA during the same period. In 1969, manufacturers in New Hanover County

FIGURE I FIGURE S
MANUFACTURING a NON -MANUFACTURING WORK FORCE AS A MANUFACTURING 81 NON -MANUFACTURING WORK FORCE AS A
PERCENT OF TOTAL NEW HANOVER COUNTY. PERCENT OF TOTAL S.M.S.A INDUSTRIAL EMPLOYMENT `
INDUSTRIAL EMPLOYMENT
NEW HANOVER COUNTY
45
Q NOW MANUFACTURING
40 MANUFACTURING
O
a 30
N
O
25
W
20 70.6 70.9
Y
3 19
10
5 29.4 28.1
0
31 170.9
1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978
YEAR
1963 I9bb IJby Iyr4 1ti10 Iylts
YEAR
SOURCE N. C. EMPLOYMENT SECURITY COMMISSION AND WILMINGTON-NEW HANOVER PLANNING DEPARTMENT

-54-
and the SMSA accounted for 30.7% and 30.3%, respectively, of all industry
employment. By 1978, these percentages had fallen to 23.7% in the County
and 25.8% in the SMSA -- a reversal of their earlier positions. In 1978,
for the first time in several decades, manufacturing industries employed
fewer than 1 in 4 workers in New Hanover County.
Table 19 examines manufacturing growth in the.City of Wilmington and
New Hanover County relative to the Wilmington SMSA and the State of North
Carolina. From the perspective of numbers of manufacturing establishments,
Table 19 shows that from 1963 to 1977 manufacturing firms in New Hanover
County grew in number at rouc!hly the same rate as the State. Manufacturing
establishments in SMSA expanded their ranks faster than either,the County or
the State during the same 15 year period. From 1972 to 1977, this relation-
ship was especially noticeable, with New Hanover County gaining only 15 new
establishments while the SMSA added 32.
If value added figures are examined for the same period, however, the
numbers reveal that New Hanover County accounted for nearly all of the value
added to products made in the SMSA. Additionally, since 1963 New Hanover County
manufacturing establishments have been responsible for over 95% of all capital
expenditures in the two -county SMSA. These figures reflect several characteris-
tics of manufacturing interests in the County relative to the SMSA as a whole.
First, despite rapid increases in manufacturing activity in Brunswick County in
recent years, New Hanover County continues to hold the lion's share of all manu-
facturing in the SMSA. Second, the New Hanover County manufacturing base
has shifted to high technology processes over the last two decades, such
as the production of chemicals and fabricated metals. This has contributed
to the growth of capital intensive, rather than labor intensive manufacturers.

TABLE 19
NUMBER OF MANUFACTURING ESTABLISHMENTS AND VALUE ADDED
WILMINGTON, NEW HANOVER COUNTY, THE WILMINGTON SMSA, AND NORTH CAROLINA - 1963-1977
1963
North Carolina
% INCREASE
1967 1972 1977 1963-1977
Establishments
7,784
8,266
8,632
9;939 27.7
Value Added
by Manufacturing
4,566,547
6,606,500
11,009,700
NA ----
Capital Expenditures
314,428
664,600
989,300
NA ----
SMSA
Establishments
133
156
149
181 36.1
Value Added
by Manufacturing
43,263
85,700
481,200
NA ----
Capital Expenditures
16,710
50,800
120,700
NA ----
New Hanover County
Establishments
106
113
120
135 27.4
Value Added
by Manufacturing
36,896
80,300
473,800
NA ----
Capital Expenditures
16,084
50,500
120,300
NA ----
Wilmington
Establishments
70
76
----
Value Added
Data Not
Data
by Manufacturing
26,016
52,900
Available
NA ----
Capital Expenditures
1,184
(D)
----
Note: Value added by manufacturing and
capital expenditures are in thousands of dollars.
(D) Withheld to avoid disclosure.
Sources: Census of Manufacturers, U. S.
Bureau of the
Census, 1963, 1967,
& 1972
Perliminary 1977
Census of Manufacturers, U.
S. Bureau of the Census, October 1979.
I
Ul
Ln

-56-
Third, contrary to witnessing heavy capital investment by new industries,
New Hanover County has seen existing manufacturers in recent years invest
their capital on the expansion of their established operations. These
statements lend credence to the idea that as the County becomes more densely
settled, manufacturing growth is likely to be located on or adjacent to
existing manufacturing sites, and such growth will not involve large numbers
of workers, relative to the rapidly.growing non -manufacturing (service)
industries.
Another reason given for the apparent leveling off of manufacturing
employment involves a whole host of limiting factors that can work individually
and collectively to define the capacity of New Hanover County for accepting
manufacturing industries. Included among these factors are: the ability
of streets and highways to accept additional heavy traffic; the availability
of fresh surface and ground water; the ability of man-made and natural systems
to accept and treat sanitary and solid wastes; the amount of vacant develop-
able land, and the number of competing land use activities vying for the same
locations.
Thus, the competition among manufacturing and non -manufacturing industries,
and residential developments, for road space, water supplies, sewage treatment
capacity and buildable sites adjacent to transportation facilities, may be
pricing manufacturing interests out of the New Hanover County market. Manu-
facturers may be forced to seek sites on less expensive, larger land parcels
outside the County.
It is significant to note that within a land area comprising less than
2% of the twenty -county coastal area of North Carolina, New Hanover County
has roughly 17% of the coastal area population. Viewed in these terms, the
intense competition between manufacturing industries and other land use

. - 57 -
activities, and the resulting percentage declines in New Hanover County
manufacturing employment can be better understood.
C. Manufacturing Employment by Major Categories: 1962-1978
Table 20 and Figure 6 show the growth and decline of manufacturing
1/
industries in New Hanover County by major SIC categories from the early
1960's to 1978, the last year for which data were available. Overall, total
employment in manufacturing has hovered in the range of 9,000 to 10,000
workers since the late 1960's. There has been a significant shift, however,
in the dominant types of manufacturing activity. The most dramatic gains
in employment have been in fabricated metals, with chemicals and machinery
manufacturers following in distant second and third places, respectively.
All three industries are relative newcomers to New Hanover County and the
Southeastern Unites States in general. In the early 1960's, these "new -type"
industries employed only a small fraction of their present day work force.
Categories of manufacturing which decreased in importance during the
1963 to 1978 period included food, textiles, apparel and lumber and wood.
These "traditional-type".(with the exception of food) industries suffered
employment losses due to increased productivity through mechanization and
improved technology. Declines were especially noticeable during the 1970's.
Finally, industries which had fairly stable employment levels during
the study period included printing, stone, clay and glass, and a variety of
miscellaneous industries employing a relatively small number of workers. —
According to Employment Security Commission figures, employment in these
"locally -oriented" industries was relatively insensitive to fluctuations in
the national business cycle.
The SIC, or Standard Industrial Classification, is a nationally recognized
system for classifying establishments to promote uniformity and comparability
in the presentation of economic data.

TABLE. 20
MANUFACTURING EMPLOYMENT IN NEW HANOVER COUNTY
SELECTED YEARS, 1963-1978
NUMBER OF
EMPLOYEES
1/
14AJOR SIC CATEGORY
1963
1966
1969
1972
1975
1970
1963-l!
1
TOTAL MFG.
6,540
7,570
9,380
10,160
9,710
9,8R0
15.7
FOOD
690
710
780
970
550
670
2.9
TEXTILES
1,590
1,530
1,260
1,360
1,530
1,320
-3.7
APPAREL
19510
1,800
1,770
1,590
760
920
19.2
LUMBER & 14000
860
1,020
960
800
620
590
18.6
PRINTING
220
240
270
310
290
280
9.1
CHEMICALS
550
720
1,040
1,110
1,480
1,350
30.9
STONE, CLAY & GLASS
130
240
300
280
260
260
84.6
FABRICATED METALS
820
1,020
1,990
2,890
3,310
3,450
24.4
MACHINERY
50
120
650.
600
720
810
140.0
TRANSP. EQUIP.
70
110
260
290
100
110
57.1
OTiIER MFG. 2/
60
60
100
60
90
120
0.0
1/ Standard Industrial classification.
2 / Includes furniture, paper, petroleum, primary metals & instruments
SOURCE: Employment Security Commission
23.9
9.9
-17.6
-1.7
-5.9
12.5
44.4
25.0
95.1
441.7
136.4
'6.7
% CIIANGE
1969-1972
1972-1975
1975-1978
_1963-1978
9.3
-4.4
1.R
51.1
24.4
-43.3
21.8
•-2.9
7.9
12..5
-13.7
-16.5
-10.2
-52.2
21.1
-39.1
-16.7
-22.5
-4.8
-31.4
14.8
-6.5
-3.4
27.3
6.7
33.3
-8.8
145.5
-6.7
-7.1
9.0
100.0
45.2
14.5
4.2
320.7
-23.1
44.0
12.5
1,520.0
11.5
-65.5
10.0
57.1
-40.0 - 50.0 33.3 ___ 100.0 - -

390C
360C
330C
300C
270C
240C
WORK 210C
FORCE
I80(
150(
120(
901
60(
30(
22
14
7
- 59
FIGURE 6
MANUFACTURING EMPLOYMENT
NEW HANOVER COUNTY 1962 -1978
FABRICATED METALS
CHEMICALS
TEXTILES
APPAREL
MACHINERY
FOOD
LUMBER & WOOD
PRINTING
STONE, CLAY 8 GLASS
OTHER MANUFACTURING
TRANSPORTATION
YEAR
SOURCE N. C. SECURITY COMMISSION 9 WILMINGTON- NEW HANOVER PLANNING DEPT.

In terms of preparing a Future Land Use Plan, the significance of
these figures can best be understood when viewed in conjunction with the
average site acreage requirements for each industry. Table 21 presents a
breakdown of acreage requirements for several major SIC industrial categories,
as they occur in New Hanover County.
Recall that the two largest growth industries in New Hanover County
during the last two decades have been fabricated metals and chemicals (new -
type industries). According to Table 21, these industries require average
site sizes of 57 and 103 acres, respectively. In designing the future land
use plan, it would follow that most new industrial.lands should be set aside
in amounts no less than these required acreages. In addition to serving the
identified.fast growing industries, these minimum acreage land tracts will
be of sufficient size to accommodate potential industrial park development
in the City and County.

- 61 -
TABLE 21
ACREAGE AND EMPLOYEE INVENTORY OF MANUFACTURING
NEW HANOVER COUNTY
Averagel/
Acreaqe
Average #
Employees
Report-
ing....
Units
Total'
Acres
Total
Employees...
Employees
Per Acre
Food and
Kindred Products
1.8
56.1
11
19.8
617
31.2
Textile Mill
Products
98.0
227.2
4
392.0
909
2.3
Apparel & Other
Textile Products
4.3
221.0
6
_25.8
1,326
51.4
Lumber & Wood
Products
11.6
30.2
21
243.6
635
2.6
Printing &
Publishing
1.0
32.3
13
13.0
420
32.3
Chemicals & 2/
Allied Products.
102.9
218.6
17
1,749.3
3,716
2.1
Stone, Clay & Glass
Products
522.8
31.1
8
4,182.4
249
0.06
Fabricated Metal
Products
56.8
229.8
9
511.2
2,068
4.0
Machinery, Except
Electric
8.5
222.2
9
76.5
2,000
26.1
Electrical Equip
& Supplies
29.8
187.5
2
59.6
375
6.3
TOTALS
-
-
100
7,273.2
12,315
1.7
l/ Data collected from tax records, 1975 (all other data from County
Business Patterns, 1977).
2/ Only that land used in production by Hercules is figured in average --
not total holdings of land by Hercules.

=AAE
D. Non -Manufacturing Employment by Major Categories: 1962-1978
Figure 7 and Table 22 present the growth in employment of each major non -
manufacturing industry in New Hanover County during the 1960's and 1970's.
In marked contrast with manufacturing industries, the growth of non -manufactur-
ing employment in the County has been notably consistent. With the exception
of the highly volatile construction industry, every non -manufacturing category
exhibited an overall trend toward steady growth during the 1960's and 1970's.
In addition, each industry maintained its ranking with respect to other non-
industrial employers.
Thus, in 1978 as in 1963, trade, government and services dominated, employ-
ment in the non -manufacturing industries. The consistency and magnitude of
the growth in these categories reaffirms the strengths of Wilmington and New
Hanover County as the center of commerce and government in Southeastern North
Carolina. Unlike the frequent and unpredictable oscillations witnessed in
manufacturing industries during the study period, the growth trends established
for the non -manufacturing sector are clear. The prospect for continued growth
in these industries during the 1980's is excellent. The Future Land'Use Plan
must therefore carefully evaluate the acreage and location requirements of the
service -oriented industries and set aside appropriate land acres for their
future use.

10400
9600
8800
8000
7200
6400
560C
WORK
FORCE
480C
400C
320C
240C
160C
80C
FIGURE 7
n
mommommommommmmmm
lm
oommoommommommomm
Eammmmmmommamm
mmmmmp,Apzwmmmmm
milpirdomop'-
mmmmmm=m��
B!1=26
R�m
FREE
TRADE
GOVERNMENT
rn
w
SERVICE
TRANSPORTATION,
COMMUNICATION,
UTILITIES
CONSTRUCTION
FINANCE, INSURANCE,
REAL ESTATE
OTHER NON -MANUFACTURING
1962 63 64 65 66 6T 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 76
YEAR
NONMANUFACTURING EMPLOYMENT SOURCE: N.G. EMPLOYMENT SECURITY
COMMISSION • . MILMINGTON-
NEw HANOVER PLANNING DEPT.
NEW HANOVER COUNTY 1962-1978

TABLE 22
NON -MANUFACTURING EMPLOYMENT IN NEW HANOVER COUNTY
SELECTED YEARS 1963-1978
WORK
FORCE
% OF
TOTAL
INDUSTRY
WORK
FORCE
1963
1966
1969
1972
1975
1978
1963
1966
1969
1972
1975
1978
1/
Total Industry
22,220
26,000
30,600
34,330
36,570
419780
100
100
100
100
100
100
Total Non-
15,680
18,430
21,220
24,170
26,860
31,900
70.6
70.9
69.3
70..4
73.4
76.3
Manufacturing
Construction
1,540
1,880
2,180
2,280
1,720
2,130
6.9
7.2
7.1
6.6
4.7
5.1
Transportation,
2,050
2,440
2,800
3,200
3,340
3,640
9.2
-9.4
9.2
9.3
9.1
8.7
Communication,
and Utilities
Trade
5,150
5,640
6,680
8,090
8,950
10,240
23.2
21.7
21.8
23.6
24.5
24.5
Finance, Real Estate
1,010
1,030
1,190
1,510
1,460
1,640
4.6
4.0
3.9
4.4
4.0
3.9
Service
2,800
3,500
3,890
3,390
4,520
5,970
12.6
13.4
12.7
11.5
12.3
14.3
Government
3,090
3,890
4,380
5,010
6,760
8,110
13.9
15.0
14.3
14.6
18.5
19.4
2/
Other Non-
40
50
100
150
110
170
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.3
0.4
Manufacturing
1/
Includes both manufacturing and non -manufacturing work force.
Includes Agricultural Services, Forestry, Fisheries and Mining
SOURCE: North Carolina Employment Security Commission
and Wilmington -New Hanover Planning Department

-65-
I`i. Non -Residential Land Use Needs
;1980M-1990
A. Introduction
Paramount to the development of the Future Land Use Plan are the
anticipated land area needs of local manufacturing, service, and trade
industries. As stated earlier, industrial (i.e., non-residential) land
use needs are typically calculated using local employment projections and
ratios of workers per unit of land area for each industry type. To calcu-
late projections and employee/land ratios, it is necessary to examine the
past and present industrial mix of New Hanover County. For this reason,
local employment information available for the period from 1962 to 1978 was
examined. Table 23 presents'the employment figures for each of those years.
For the purpose of preparing land use projections, each industry type
was assigned to one of five major non-residential land use categories: (1)
office and and institutional, (2) commercial, (3) transportation; communica-
tion, and utilities, (4) extensive manufacturing industry, and (5)'intensive
manufacturing industry. The figures were then aggregated for each year,
with the resulting employment totals plotted in Figure 8.
Figure 8 reveals a number of dominant trends in the economy of New
Hanover County. First, the graph shows that, with the exception of intensive
industry, employment during the 1962-1978 period increased in every major
land use category. Second, during this seventeen-year period, these employ-
ment increases were fairly consistent. Third, the graph indicates that em-
ployment in the office and institutional and commercial categories has grown
more rapidly than in any other industrial category. This trend was especially
pronounced during the period after 1972. The overall direction of the local
economy seems to be increasing toward service -oriented industries.

TABLE 23
WORK FORCE BY LAND USE CATEGORIES
- 1962-1969
NEW HANOVER COUNTY
INilUS1'RY TYPE
Office and Institutional
6,800
6,900
7.280
8,030
8,420
8,630
9.340
9.460
F.I.R.E.
1.010
1.010
1,050
1,050
1,030
1,040
1.140
1,190
Service
2,740
2,800
3.050
3,290
3.500
3,560
3,750
3,890
Government
3,050
3.090
3,180
3.690
3,890
4.030
4.450
4,380
fonwer'cial
6,150
6,690
7,000
7,230
7.520
7,710
7.990
8,860
Trade
4,990
5,150
5,460
5.590
5.640
5,870
6.110
6,680
construction
1.160
1,540
1.540
1,640
1.880
1,840
1,880
2.180
Transportation. Coununicatiun.
arrd Utilities
1,920
2,050
2,110
2.270
2.440
2,710
2.810
2.800
Extensive Manufacturing
3,780
3.940
3,860
4,180
4,530
4.440
4,450
5,550
Textiles
1,630
1,580
1.470
1,480
1,530
1,230
1.170
1,260
Lumber and wood
840
860
860
910
1.020
1.020
990
960
Chemicals
510
550
600
700
720
880
1,010
1,040
Stone, clay, and glass
110
130
130
250
240
270
300
300
Fabricated metals
640
820
BOO
840
1,020
1.040
.980
1.990
Intensive nanufacturing
2,620
2,600
2,660
2.760
3.040
3,440
3,900
3,830
food
710
690
700
670
710
760
720
780
Api,arel
1,530
1,510
1,540
1,660
1,800
1.770
1,800
1,770
Printing
230
220
230
240
240
250
260
270
Machinery
50
50
50
50
120
440
840
650
Trans. eyuil-Mlet
40
70
80
80
110
160
210
260
Other manufacturing
60
60
60
60
60
60
70
100
Total Manufacturing Industry
6,400
6,540
6.520
6,940
7,570
7,880
8.350
9,380
lotal, All Industries)
21,270
22,180
22.910
24,470
25.950
26,930
28.490
30,500
Ij FIGURE DOES NOT INCLUDE
THE LESS
THAN 200
PERSONS
EMPLOYED IN
AGRICULTURAL
SERVICES;
FORESTRY;
FISHERIES; AND MINING.
Source of Data: North Carolina Employment Security Commission.

TABLE 23
(CONTINUED)
WORK FORCE BY LAND USE CATEGORIES
1970-1978
NEW HANOVER COUNTY
INDUSTRY TYPE
Office and institutional
10,050
10,200
10,450
11,140
12,600
12,740
.13,410
13,690
15.720
F.I.R.E.
1,220
1,270
1,510
1,510
1.520
1,460
1.490
1.540
1,640
Service
4,190
4,050
3,930
4,350
4,780
4,520
4,990
6,040
5,970
Government
4,640
4,880
5,010
5,290
6,300
6,760
6,930
7,110
8.110
commercial
9,470
9.120
10,370
11,910
11,860
10.670
10,990
11,870
12,370
Trade
7.360
7.140
8,090
9,020
9,580
8.950
9,180
9,770
10,240
Construction
2,110
1,980
2,280
2.890
2.280
1,720
.1.810
'2,100
2.130
Transportation. Coimiunication,
and Utilities
2,900
2,950
3,200
3,650
3,660
3,340
3,480
3,590
3,640
Extensive Manufacturing
5,870
5,400
6.440
6,750
6,770
7,200
7,360
7,020
6,970
Textiles
1.440
1.280
1,360
1.170
1,060
1,530
1.380
1,200
1,320
Lumber and wood
910
720
800
760
760
620
590
560
590
Chemicals
960
770
1.110
1,390
1,380
1,480
1,340
1,310
1.350
Stone, clay, and glass
300
280
280
290
290
260
250
250
260
Fabricated metals
2,260
2.350
2.890
3,120
3,280
3,310
3,800
3.700
3.450
Intensive manufacturing
3,440
3,210
3,720
3,950
3,800
2,510
2,880
2,870
2,910
Food
780
830
970
940
940
550
580
640
670
Apparel
1,440
11280
1,590
1,780
1,570
760
1,090
1,000
920
Printing
280
280
310
320
300
290
270
270
280
Machinery
550
450
500
610
640
720
750
780
810
11-ans. equipment
330
310
290
240
280
100
120
80
110
Other manufacturing
60
60
60
60
70
90
70
100
120
Total Manufacturing industry
9,310
8,610
10,160
10.100
9,970
9,710
10.240
9,890
9,880
Total, All Industries)
31,730
30,880
34,180
36,800
38,090
36,460
38,120
39.040
41,610
IL FIGURE DOES NOT INCLUDE
THE LESS
THAN 200
PERSONS EMPLOYED
IN AGRICULTURAL
SERVICES;
FORESTRY;
FISHERIES; AND MINING.
Source of Data: North Carolina Employment Security Commission.

16500-
15000-
13500-
12000-
10500-
WORK 9000-
FORCE
7500-
6000-
4500-
3000-
1500-
WORK FORCE BY LAND USE CATEGORY
NEW HANOVER COUNTY
1962 - 1978
FIGURE 8
••
.• 00OF-
'
000,
•�
■��
f_
mmm
aoo
ftw•
wavolmon
sm
twoa
/Jim
of
as Jim
in
as nil
■■ ■
an
OFFICE
a
INSTITUTIONAL
1962 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78
YEAR
SOURCE;, N.C. SECURITY COMMISSION a WILMINGTON_ NEW HANOVER PLANNING DEPT,
COMMERCIAL
TOTAL
MANUFACTURING
INDUSTRY
rn
c
EXTENSIVE
INDUSTRY
TRANSPORTATION,
COMMUNICATION,
UTILITIES
INTENSIVE
INDUSTRY

-69-
When these trends in the industrial mix of New Hanover County are pro-
jected into the decade of the 1980's, strong implications for the future
development of the county become apparent. Table 24 shows the estimated
employment levels for each of the major land use categories in 1980, and
projected employment levels for 1985, 1990, and the year 2000. Table 25
translates projected employment levels of Table 24 into estimates of future
land use needs by major non-residential categories. The prospects for growth
and the future land use needs of each industrial category follow.
B. Office and Institutional
This land use category includes activities such as schools, churches,
museums, art galleries, physicians' offices, architectural and engineering
firms and law offices. From 1962 to 1978, office and institutional employ-
ment in New Hanover County exhibited steady growth, having never failed to
increase its ranks in any given year during the priod. Employment in this
category demonstrated especially strong growth during the 1970's, reflecting
the incrasing role of New Hanover County as a service, educational, medical,
and government center for Southeastern North Carolina. In 1980, an estimated
15,350 persons were employed in offices and institutions occupying over 1500
acres of land. At 10.07 employees per acre, the office and institutional
land use category has the highest ratio of employees per unit area of any
non-residential land use category. (See Table 25.)
With employment in this category projected.at over 20,000 by the year
1990, approximately 517 more acres of land will be necessary to accommodate
the new offices and institutions. By the end of the 19801s, these uses will
occupy an estimated 2040 acres in the Planning Area or close to 20% of all
non -residentially developed lands.

TABLE
PROJECTED WORK tORCE BY
LAND USE CATEGORY 1/
THROUGH THE YEAR 20If0
NEW HANOVER COUNTY
INDUSTRY TYPE
i
Office and Institutional
15,350
16.360
17,880
20,410
25,470
.981
F.I.R.E.
1,710
1,790
1.020
2,140
2,570
.952
Service
5,673
6,000
6.500
7,320
8.970
.964
Government
7,960
8.560
9,450
10,940
13.920
.973
Commercial
13,250
14,040
15,240
17.220
21,200
.964
Trade
10,850
11,550
12,610
14,360
17.870
.976
Construction
2.400
2.500
2,640
2,870
3,340
.610
Transportation. Communication
and Utilities
4,060
4,290
4,630
5.200
6.350
.965
Extensive Manufacturing
8,000
8,500
9,240
10,480
12.960
.965
Textiles
1,180
1.150
1,100
1.010
840
-.532
Lumber and wood
580
530
460
340
110
-.771
Chemicals
1,600
1,730
1.910
2,210
2.810
.926
Stone, clay. and glass
320
340
360
390
470
.601
Fabricated metals
4,390
4,850
6.520
6,650
6,910
.964
Intensive manufacturing
3,380
3,420
3,470
3,570
3,760
.190
Food
740
740
740
740
740
.002
Apparel
1,030
950
820
600
180
-.649
Printing
310
320
330
350
400
.765
Machinery
970
11080
1,230
1,480
11980
.853
Trans. equipment
220
230
250
270
320
.266
Other manufacturing
130
140
160
190
250
.626
Total Manufacturing Industry
11,380
11.920
12.710
14,050
16.720
-----
Total, All Industries
44,140
46.610
50,460
56,880
69,740
-----
1 EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS FOR
WORK FORCE SUBCATEGORIES ARE NOT ADDITIVE TO TOTAL
EMPLOYMENT FOR EACH MAJOR LAND
.USE CATEGORY DUE TO LESS RELIABILITY
IN
PROJECTING
INDIVIDUAL INDUSTRY EMPLOYMENT LEVELS.
21 FIGURE DOES NOT INCLUDE THE
LESS THAN 200 PERSONS PROJECTED FOR
EMPLOYMENT IN
AGRICULTURAL
SERVICES; FORESTRY;
FISHERIES; AND MINING.
Source: Wilmington -New Hanover Planning Department

OFFICE AND INSTITUTIONAL
(OBI)
C0144ERC IAL
TRANSPORTATION, COMMUNI-
CATION AND UTILITIES
(TCU)
MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES
EXTENSIVE
INTENSIVE
TOTALS
TABLE 25
NON-RESIDENTIAL LAND USE NEEDS
1980-1990
NEW HANOVER COUNTY
1990
ADDITIONAL
ACRES
TOTAL
1980 1980 1980 1990
PROJECTED
ACREAGE
REQUIRED FOR
ADDITIONAL
ESTIMATED ACREAGE EMPLOYEES PROJECTED
ACREAGE IN
NEEDED
MARKET
ACREAGE NEEDED
EMPLOYMENTa IN USE PER ACRE EMPLOYMENT
USE
1980-1990
FLEXIBILITY
1980-1990
15.350
1,523
10.07
20,410
2,040
517
259
776
13.250
1.413
9.38
17,220
1,836
423
212
635
4,060
508b
7.99
5,220
651b
143
72
215
11,380
4,681
--- -
14,050
5.835
1,154
577
1,731
8,000
3,526
2.27
10.480
4,617
1,091
545
1,636
3.360
1,155
2.93
3,570
1,218
63
32
95
44,040d
8,125
-----
56,880d
10,362
2,237
1,120
3,357
aEMPLOYMENT ESTIMATES DERIVED FROM ANALYSIS AND PROJECTION OF 1962-1978 TRENDS (LINEAR REGRESSION)
bTO ACHIEVE MORE ACCURATE PROJECTIONS OF FUTURE LAND USE NEEDS,
TCU ACREAGE DOES NOT INCLUDE N. H. COUNTY AIRPORT PROPERTIES (1,346 ACRES) AND TWO SQUARE MILES OF THE C.P. AND L. COOLING ,
PONDS (1,280 ACRES)
CINTENSIVE INDUSTRY ACREAGE INCLUDES WHOLESALE, WAREHOUSING AND DISTRIBUTION LAND USES
dTOTAL INDUSTRY EtPLOYMENT DOES NOT INCLUDE AN ESTIMATED 6.200 NON-AGRICULTURAL SELF EMPLOYED WORKERS, UNPAID FAMILY WORKERS,
AND DOMESTIC WORKERS IN PRIVATE HOUSEHOLDS (1980); PROJECTED TO INCREASE TO 7,000 BY 1990.

OFFICE AND INSTITUTIONAL (0 & 1)
COMMURCIAL
TRANSPORTATION, COMMUNICATION
AND UTILITIES (TCU)
MANUFACTURING; INDUSTRIES
EXTENSIVE
INTENSIVE
TOTALS
TABLE M.
PROJECTED GROWTH OF WORK FORCE
AND NON-RESIDENTIAL LAND IN USE
NEW HANOVER COUNTY
1900-1990 f.
% OF INDUSTRYL(i't.'�1T
% INCREASE
% OF
ALL
% INCREASE
BY PLACE
OF W RK
IN WORK FORCE
NON-RESIDENTIAL
LAND IN US.
1980
1990
1980-1990
LAND
IN USE
1980-1990
1980
1990
34.9
35.9
33.0
16.7
19.7
33.9
30.1
30.3
30.0
17.4
17.7
29.9
9.2
9.1
28.1
6.3
6.3
28.1
25.8
24.7
�23.5
57.6
56.3
24.7
18.2
18.4
31.0
43.4
44.6
30.9
7.7
6.3
5.6
14.2
11.8
5.5
100.0
100.0
29.2
100.0
100.0
27.5
Source: Wilmington -New Hanover Planning Department
1
v
N

• - 73 -
Several factors help explain the anticipated growth of office and
institutional activities during the 1980's. First, there is little doubt
that during the coming decade New Hanover County will continue to strengthen
its role as the government, service, financial and education center of
Southeastern North Carolina. In addition to the office growth directly
associated with the expansion of the State Ports, many new manufacturing
industries with sites located within the region but outside the County, will
prefer to have their administrative offices located in the urban hub of New
Hanover County.
The tendency of business and financial institutions to agglomerate in
urban centers is as old as the development of cities. In contrast to the
exodus of industrial and commercial activities to the suburbs during the
1960's and 1970's, many offices and institutions will prefer to be in close
proximity to their working counterparts. As large commercial users have
vacated downtown Wilmington in recent years, a sizeable number of finance,
real estate, insurance, development and law offices have moved into the
central business district. This trend is expected to continue, as Federal
and state government policies encourage the placement of government agencies
in downtown areas.
Existing medical facilities, now centered in the City of Wilmington,
may be expected to expand their land area coverage as the health care needs
of the region's growing population demand. The national trend toward a much
larger elderly population will continue into the 1980's, with increasing de-
mands for homes for the elderly, nursing homes, geriatric centers, and other
such institutions.

-74-
Demands for child day care facilities will grow during the 1980's as
young mothers continue to enter the labor force in large numbers. Finally,
while government employment may not witness the kind of growth during the
'80's that occurred during the '70's, there will undoubtedly be continued
demands for more government office space in the years ahead. All of these
factors contribute to the need for an additional 517.acres of office and
institutional acreage.
C. Commercial
For the purposes of estimating future land use needs, the four.basic
types of commercial activities, Regional, Highway, Community, and Neighbor-
hood Commercial, were combined into one commerc-M--category. This was
necessary due to the aggregated form of the employment information available.
As illustrated in Figure 8, employment in commercial activities exhibited
steady increases during the 1960's. In the 1970's, however, considerable
fluctuations in commercial employment was evident. As might be expected,
employment in the trade sector closely followed upturns and downturns in the
national business cycle. Commercial employment reached a peak in 1973, then
fell substantially during the 1974-75 recession, and showed signs of steady
recovery through 1978.
In 1980, commercial activities in New Hanover County provided jobs for
an estimated 13,250 persons, second only to the office and institutional
category. Occupying slightly over 1400 acres of land in the Planning Area,
commercial activities employed 9.4 persons per acre in 1980. With 17,220
total jobs projected for the commercial category by 1990, an additional 423
acres of land will be necessary to accommodate new commercial development.

• - 75 -
This increase in acreage will allow the commercial land use category to
slightly increase its share of all non -residentially developed land, from
17.4% in 1980 to 17.7% by 1990.
In contrast to the uncertainty of the future siting of manufacturing
activities, the majority of all commercial activities serving Southeastern
North Carolina will continue to locate in New Hanover County. While manu-
facturing industries may choose sites on less expensive, less heavily
populated areas in surrounding counties, most spin-off commercial activities
will place a premium on locating within the immediate market area of the
Wilmington urban core. As in the case of offices and institutions, com-
mercial activities benefit from "economies of agglomeration," preferring
to locate within close proximity of one another.
These tendencies toward clusters or "nodes" of commercial activity
should become even more pronounced during the.1980's. The rising price of
gasoline, reductions in the frequency of shopping trips, and increased
awareness of "time -spent -shopping" will add to the dominance of one -stop
shopping facilities. Clustered commercial centers, with a variety of re-
tail establishments, will fare better than single -purpose retailers strung
out along City and County streets. Cutbacks in monies for the construction
of new thoroughfares will place the use and value of existing streets at a
premium. The undesirable effects of traffic congestion induced by commercial
strip development along the area's major thoroughfares will become more ap-
parent to the motoring public. Finally, small-scale neighborhood retail
centers within walking distance of residential areas will come into heavier
demand.
All of these factors point toward the development of a land use plan
which seeks to preserve areas for commercial use in strategic clusters

-76-
for major shopping needs and in very compact locations for neighborhood
retail needs.
D. Transportation, Communication, and Utilities
This land use category includes activities employing rail, air, water,
transit and motor freight workers, communications workers, and electric, gas,
and sanitary service workers. To provide for meaningful future land use
projections, this analysis does not include acreages devoted to streets and
railroad right of ways. Also not included in the future needs assessment
are the extensive land areas used for New Hanover County Airport operations
(1346 acres) and for. -the cooling pond of the Carolina Power and Light Company
electric generating plant (2 square miles or 1280 acres). The New Hanover
County Airport management has indicated that no further expansion of the
airport acreage is anticipated during the 1980's. The CP&L cooling ponds
were excluded primarily because of their use in recreation and other non-
TCU activities.
Table 23 shows that employment in transportation, communication, and
utilities (TCU) industries has shown gradual but steady increases since 1962.
Only during the recession of 1974-75 did the TCU work force in New Hanover
County decline slightly. TCU employment has since resuled a slow but steady
growth pattern.
In 1980, TCU industries provided an estimated 4,060 jobs on approximately
508 acres of land (excluding airport property and CP&L ponds) for an overall
density of roughly 8 employees per acre. Based upon current and past trends,
TCU industries are projected to employ 5,200 persons in 1990. At current
employment densities, this translates to a need for 143 additional acres of

- 77 -
TO land during the 1980's. This increase is expected to maintain TCU
acreage at roughly 6.3% of all non -residentially developed lands during the
1980's.
The additional land area necessary to meet projected growth in TO
industries during the 1980's may be closely tied to changes in the develop-
ment density of the County. As New Hanover County becomes more densely
populated, the.need for centralized urban facilities and services increases
greatly. The cost-effectiveness of providing those urban services also
improves. Perhaps the most well known and controversial example of this
relationship in New Hanover County has been the proposed county -wide water
and/or sewer system. If such a system were to be -Installed, additional
acreages for water and sewage treatment facilities, pumping stations,
possible well sites, water towers, etc. would be necessary. For many
developed areas of the County not served by the proposed centralized system
community level water and/or sewage systems will be used.
In addition to water and sewer facilities, electric, natural gas,
telephone, and steam generating utilities will increase their presence as
the growing County population demands. Steam -generating facilities are
mentioned in particular, as the County seeks a long-term solution to its
solid waste disposal problem. The possibility exists that from one to as
many as half a dozen steam -generating solid waste incinerators -could be in-
stalled in New Hanover County during the 1980's. Associated with the solid
waste disposal solution might be two or more transit stations, and one or
more community recycling centers. Thus, the projected demand for 143
additional acres of TO land by 1990 does not appear to be excessive.

E. Intensive and Extensive Manufacturing
The manufacturing industries category is divided into two functional
sub -categories, intensive and extensive, for the purpose of future land use
projections.' Intensive industries are generally characterized as light in-
dustries with smaller physical plants, lower land requirements, and higher
worker to land ratios. Extensive industries are typically heavier in-
dustries with large physical plants, high land requirements, and lower
worker to land ratios.
Intensive Industry
Intensive Industry includes food, apparel, printing, machinery, trans-
portation equipment, and other miscellaneous manufacturing. A good example
of an intensive industry located in New Hanover County is Block Shirt Company.,
The vast majority of the employment in intensive industries is "tradi-
tional" or "locally oriented," and is characterized by low skills and wages.
Improvements in technology and increased mechanization in recent years have
increased productivity at the expense of workers' jobs.
Of all land use categories studied, those falling under the intensive
industry heading exhibited the most erratic employment pattern over the
1962-1978 period. The category as a_whole demonstrated a sensitivity to
fluctuations in the national business cycle; employment losses were suffered
during the national economic "troughs" of 1970 and 1975. During the reces-
sion of 1975, for example, employment in intensive industries fell abruptly,
with nearly 1300 jobs lost in that year. The apparel industry alone accounted
for over 800 of the jobless. As a result of these losses, intensive manu-
facturing employment dropped to only 2,510, or 110 fewer workers than in
1962. Since1975, intensive industries have employed the least number of per-
sons of any land use category. (See Table 23 and Figure 8, pages 66 and 68).

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Based upon these employment patterns and trends, the prognosis for
intensive industrial growth during the 1980's is uncertain. With the
exception of the machinery industry, all intensive manufacturers are either
just maintaining or losing their employment totals. A trend analysis per-
formed on the 1962-1978 period shows a weak tendency toward modest increases
in intensive industrial employment during the coming decade. A similar analysis
performed on only the period since 1970, however, yields a declining employ-
ment trend. Even with the more optimistic long term trend, employment in
intensive industries would reach only 3,570 by 1990, up from 2,910 in 1978.
If the current ratio of 2.93 employees per acre remains constant through the
1980's., an additional 63 acres of land will be needed for intensive industries
by 1990. While it is entirely possible that the number of employees per
acre may continue to decrease over the next -decade, the overall acreage
estimate is thought to be generous enough to account for such variations.
This projection also assumes that some of the new intensive manufacturing in-
dustries will move into existing sites formerly occupied by other industries.
Incentive for such location would include existing appropriate zoning, estab-
lished land use configurations and transportation facilities, and the possible
reuse of existing structures.
Finally, the recent efforts of New Hanover County to investigate the
development of an industrial park adjacent to the County Airport should be
noted. Consultants for the County preparing a feasibility study for the
airport have noted that intensive type (light) industries are well suited
for location in such a facility. Manufacturing industries identified by the
consultants as being the best prospects include non -electrical machinery,
electric and electronic equipment and some transportation and instrumentation

-80-
industries. The study indicates, however, that New Hanover County must com-
pete to attract such industries. Thus, the optimistic but tempered prognosis
offered by the consultants reaffirms the modest growth picture drawn for
intensive industries in New Hanover County during the 1980's.
Extensi0e'Industry
Extensive industries include textiles, lumber and wood, chemicals, stone,
clay, and glass, and fabricated metals. Hercules is a local example of an
extensive industry. .
In contrast.to intensive industrial employment, jobs provided by ex-
tensive industries have shown a steady, stepped -growth pattern over the 1962-
1978 period. The most notable increases have been in the chemical and fabri-
cated metals industries. Unlike most other industrial categories, however,
extensive industries as a whole showed none of the negative effects of the
1974 recession. Employment actually increased by 430 workers from 1974 to
1975. (See Table 23.)
The prognosis for the growth of extensive industry in New Hanover County
has two conflicting parts. On one hand, past employment trends would seem
to indicate that the prospects for future increases in such manufacturing
are good. If such trends are accepted at face value, a total of 10,480 ex-
tensive industrial workers would be employed in 1990, up from an estimated
8,000 in 1980. If the current worker to land ratio of 2.27 employees per
acre were to remain constant, a total 4,617 acres of land would be in use
for extensive industry in 1990. This would bring an additional 1,091 acres
of land into use over the ten year period, or an average of 106 acres per
year. Thus, if current trends were to continue, extensive industry would in-
crease its share of all non -residentially developed lands to 44.6% by 1990.
(See Table 26.)

0
- 81 -
In conflict with the consistent growth pattern outlined above, however,
are other factors indicating that the total land in use for extensive in-
dustries in 1990 could be considerably less. First, the land use projections
discussed above were made without regard to the actual availability of develop-
able land in New Hanover County for extensive industries. As noted in an
earlier section, some industries are no longer able to compete with commer-
cial and service industry bids for the remaining suitable lands in the County.
Much of the County is characterized by poorly drained sites with seasonally
high water tables. While smaller land users can find pockets of soils suit-
able for development, major land users may have a more difficult task finding
large suitable areas in New Hanover County's sensitive coastal environment.
The sprawling and scattered residential development pattern of the County
also makes the encroachment of existing residential uses into prospective
industrial sites more likely. The County's recent difficult search for a
landfill site away from residential land uses confirms this situation. Ex-
tensive industries such as the proposed oil refinery in Brunswick County.and
the aluminum smelting plant in Columbus County are a testament to this trend;
these industries must look outside New Hanover County to find the inexpensive,
abundant acreages necessary for their operations. Extensive industries will
continue to capitalize on the excellent transportation facilities offered by
the State Port of Wilmington, without actually locating their plants in New
Hanover County.
Although it is difficult to judge long term trends based upon short
term analyses, extensive industry employment since 1976 has shown signs of
leveling off. The two largest growth industries, fabricated metals and
chemicals, have not demonstrated.the kind of expansion they experienced in
the late 1960's and early 1970's. In summary, while past trends indicate

-82- '
that an additional 1,091 acres would be needed for manufacturing growth
during the 1980's, several constraining factors could lessen this amount.
These factors include the availability of large suitable land tracts, and
competition for the remaining undeveloped sites from non -manufacturing land
users.
It is expected that by the time the next CAMA Land Use Plan Update is
prepared in.1985, many of the questions regarding county -wide water and
sewer,the BECO oil refinery, the Interstate 40 extension, and other major
development issues will be answered. The answers should form a much clearer
picture of the future development of New Hanover County, allowing the pro-
jections set forth•in this report to be further refined.

0
Part
Summary of Future Land Use - Needs
ig80--1990

I. Detailed Land Use Needs
Between 1980 and 1990, an additional eight square miles of land are
expected to be developed in New Hanover County (5,198 acres, Table 27).
This will increase the total developed area to over forty square miles --
roughly one -fifth of all the land in the Planning Area. Due to the sprawled
nature of development in the County, however, a much larger area than that
actually in use may be considered as part of the urbanized area. According
to figures compiled by the State, New Hanover County is already one of the
three most densely populated counties in North Carolina.
Table 27 shows that residential uses will consume about three -fifths
of all the land developed during the coming decade. If past trends continue,
one -fifth of these newly developed lands will be for industrial purposes.
New offices and institutions, commercial uses and transportation, communi-
cation, and utilities will share responsibility for the remaining develop-
ment.
Table 28 shows that residential land uses account for nearly two-thirds
of all currently developed lands in the Planning Area. This major fraction
of the area's total is expected to change very little by 1990. Despite the
continued growth of office and institutional, and commercial land uses, the
percentage of the total comprised by these uses will change little, if at all.
While manufacturing industries are shown as retaining their current
proportion of the developed land, natural and man-made physical constraints
may work to limit further major industrial development in the County. (See
previous section on prospects for extensive industrial growth.) Nonetheless,
these percentages provide a good basis for relative allocations of land uses
in the Future Land Use Plan.
I/ Department of Administration, Division of State Budget and Management,
Profile: North Carolina Counties, 1977 p. 10.

TABLE 27
SUMMARY OF FUTURE LAND USE NEEDS 1980-1990
l/
PLANNING AREA
1980
ACREAGE
IN USE
1990
PROJECTED
ACREAGE
IN USE
PERCENT
INCREASE
ACREAGE
NEEDED
1980-1990
%
OF
TOTAL
ADDED
ACREAGE
FOR MARKET
FLEXIBILITY
TOTAL
ACREAGE
NEEDED
1980-1990
Residential
13,883
16,844
21%
2,961
57%
1,481
4,432
Office & Institutional
1,523
2,040
34%
517
10%
259
776
Commercial
1,413
1,836
30%
423
8%
212
635
Transportation, Com- 2/
munication & Utilities
508
651
28%
143
3%
72
215
3/
Manufacturing Industries
4,681
5,835
25%
1,154
22%
577
1,731
TOTALS
22,008
27,206
24%
5,198
100%
2,599
7,797
l/ Includes City of Wilmington and Unincorporated New Hanover County north of Snow's Cut.
2/ TCU acreage does not include New Hanover County Airport properties (1,346 acres) and two square miles of CP&L
Cooling Ponds (1,280 acres).
3 / Includes wholesale, warehousing and distribution land uses.
SOURCE: Wilmington Planning Department, 1980