Loading...
HomeMy WebLinkAboutPopulation & Economic Growth and Future Land Use Needs 1980-1990-1980% I u @I W-.Vo Id It "44 111 Du wAt'Ll I I I SO M, RKWA-11 W, I -I. f% I In CITY COUNCIL Ben B. Halterman, Mayor Margaret Fonvielle, Mayor Pro Rupert Bryan Joseph T. Dunn Luther Jordan Tony Pate William Schwartz Robert G. Cobb, City Manager COUNTY COMMISSIONERS Ellen C. Williams, Chairman Tem Howard Armistead Karen E. Gottovi Jan S. Morgan Claude O'Shields, Jr. George Felix Cooper, County Manager WILMINGTON-NEW HANOVER PLANNING COMMISSION Hamilton E. Hicks, Jr., Chairman Charles Hollis James C. Barker Katherine Hoyt Larry Flowers J. D. Orrell Ernest Fullwood Dan Retchin Louise Gorham Richard Sniffen William B. Farris, Director of Planning PLANNING STAFF Glenn R. Harbeck, Senior Planner Michael L. Hargett, Staff Planner Dale D. Lambert, Planning Technician CAMA FUNDED POSITION Pamela E. Shellenberger GRAPHICS Lynn Golston and Jeff Jeffords SECRETARIAL Dorothy M. Chavious Prepared by: WILMINGTON-NEW HANOVER PLANNING DEPARTMENT The preparation of this document was financed, in part, through a Coastal Area Management Act grant provided by the North Carolina Coastal Management Program, through Funds provided by the Coastal Zone Management Act of 1972, as amended, which is administrered by the Office of Coastal Zone Management, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Table of Contents PAGE INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 PART 1. POPULATION GROWTH AND LAND USE NEEDS . . . . . . . . . 3 I. Summary of Population Trends and Projections 4 II. Overall Population Trends,and Projections. . . . . . . 6 A. Past Trends . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 County Growth Trends . . . . . . 6 Comparisons to State and Region "0" Trends. 9 B. Population Projections and Methodology 11 Projections .. . . 11 Methodology for Population Projections. . . . 14 III. Subarea Trends and Projections . . . . .~,_. 16 A. Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 B. Municipalities Versus the Unincorporated Area. . . 16 Trends. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 Projections . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 C. Townships . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 Trends. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 Projections . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23 D. Impact of Annexation on Subarea Growth . . . . . . .2 3 IV. Changes In Population Composition and Housing Needs. . 26 A. Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26 B. Changes in Age Structure . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26 C. Household Characteristics. . . . . . . . . . . . 28 D. Gross Housing Needs: 1980 to 1990 . . . . . . . . 31 E. Housing Demand by Type . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 Owner -Occupied Versus Rental Housing. . . . . 31 Single Family Versus Multifamily Housing. . . 36 V. Residential Land Use Needs: 1980-1990 . . . . . . . . 39 fk PAGE PART 2. ECONOMIC GROWTH AND LAND USE NEEDS . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42 I. Summary of Economic Growth . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43 II. Assessing the Economy: Date Used . . . . . . . . . . . . 44 III. New Hanover County and the Wilmington SMSA . . . . . . . . 50 A. Total Work Force . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50 B. Manufacturing Versus Non -Manufacturing Employment . . . 52 C. Manufacturing Employment by Major Categories: 1962-1978 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57 D. Non -Manufacturing Employment by Major Categories: 1962-1978 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62 IV. Non -Residential Land Use Needs: 1980-1990. . . . . . . . . 65 A. Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65 B. Office and Institutional . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 69 C. Commercial .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74 D. Transportation, Communication, and Utilities. . . . . . 76 E. Intensive and Extensive Manufacturing . . . . . . . . . 78 Intensive Industry . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78 Extensive Industry . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80 PART 3. SUMMARY OF FUTURE LAND USE NEEDS: 1980-1990 • • • • • • • 83 I. Detailed Land Use Needs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84 II. Gross Land Needs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87 U List of Tables, Figures, and Maps PAGE TABLE 1 New Hanover County Population Growth Characteristics for 7 Selected Years, 1930 - 1980 FIGURE 1 Population Growth Trends, New Hanover County, 1930 - 1980 and 8 Projected 1990 TABLE 2 Comparison of Population Growth Rates -- New Hanover County, 10 Region "0," and North Carolina TABLE 3 New Hanover County Share of State and Regional Populations, 10 1950 - 1980 TABLE 4 Ratios of Employment to Labor Force and Labor Force to 13 Population for New Hanover County for Selected Years MAP 1 Municipalities and Unincorporated Area of New Hanover County, 1980 17 MAP 2 New Hanover County Townships __ 18 TABLE 5 New Hanover County Population by Municipality and Unincorporated 19 Area, 1960 - 1990 TABLE 6 New Hanover County Population by Township, 1960 - 1990 122 TABLE 7 Effect of Proposed Annexation by City of Wilmington on New 25 Hanover County Subareas: 1990 Projected Population TABLE 8 Population Structure of New Hanover County by Age, 1970, 1980 27 and 1990 . TABLE 9 Average Household Size, New Hanover County and United States, 30 1960 - 1990 TABLE 10 Population, Housing, and Household Size, New Hanover County, 32 1960 - 1990 TABLE 11 Subarea Population, Housing and Household Size, 1960 - 1990 33 TABLE 12 Housing by Tenure, Wilmington, New Hanover County and the United 35 .States, 1960 and 1970 TABLE 13 Residential Construction, Wilmington, Unincorporated New Hanover 37 County, Total Planning Area: 1970 - 1979 TABLE 14 Population, Housing, and Residential Land Use, New Hanover County, 40 1980 TABLE 15 Population, Housing, and Residential Land Use, New Hanover County, 41 1990 Projections TABLE 16 Employment by Place of Work, New Hanover County, 1962 - 1978 FIGURE 2 Non -Industry Employment by Place of Work, New --Hanover County, 1962 - 1978 TABLE 17 Industry Employment by Place of Work, Selected Years 1963 - 1978, New Hanover County and Wilmington SMSA TABLE 18 New Hanover County Work Force as a Percentage of SMSA and FIGURE 3 FIGURE 4 Manufacturing and Non -Manufacturing Work Force as a Percent of Total County Industrial Employment FIGURE 5 Manufacturing and Work Force as a Percent of Total SMSA Industrial Employment TABLE 19 Number of Manufacturing Establishments and Value Added, City of Wilmington, New Hanover County, the Wilmington SMSA, and North Carolina 1963 - 1977 TABLE 20 Manufacturing Employment in New Hanover County, Selected Years, 1963 1978 FIGURE 6 Manufacturing Employment, New Hanover County, 1962 - 1978 TABLE 21 Acreage and Employee Inventory of Manufacturing Industries, 1975, New Hanover County FIGURE 7 Non -Manufacturing Employment, New Hanover County, 1962 - 1978 TABLE 22 Non -Manufacturing Employment New Hanover County, Selected Years 1963 - 1978 TABLE 23 Work Force by Land Use Categories, 1962 - 1978, New Hanover County FIGURE 8 Employment by Land Use Category New Hanover County, 1962 - 1978 TABLE 24 Projected Work Force by Land Use Category through the Year 2000, New Hanover County TABLE 25 Non -Residential Land Use Needs, 1980 - 1990, New Hanover County TABLE 26 Projected Growth of Work Force and Non -Residential Land in Use, New Hanover County, 1980 - 1990 TABLE 27 Summary of Future Land Use Needs, 1980 - 1990, Planning Area TABLE 28 Planning Area Land Use: Percentage of Total Developed Land, 1980 and 1990 1. PAGE 46 48 49 51 53 53 55 58 59 61 63 64 66 68 70 71 72 85 86 0 0 Population-" and Economic Growth and Future Land Use Needs Introduction This population and economic study of New Hanover County is the second such analysis prepared under the provisions of the North Carolina Coastal Area Management Act (CAMA). The first study, completed in 1976, contained a broad spectrum of descriptive information about the human and economic re- sources of the County. The analysis was truly comprehensive in scope, and was designed to meet the widest possible range of informational needs. In contrast to the first CAMA study, this analysis has a much more narrowly defined purpose -- to contribute directly -to -the development of a traditional Future Land Use Plan and revised Policies for Growth and Development. Foremost among the informational needs of the land use plan* is an assessment of the future land area requirements of the primary users of land -- residences, offices, commercial activities and manufacturing industries. For convenience, these primary users are divided into two cate- gorier, residential and non-residential. Residential land use needs are typically estimated using population projections, while non-residential needs are based upon changes in the local economy. The planning "horizon year" for this CAMA Land Use Plan Update is 1990. Therefore, past and present population and.economic trends have been analyzed to estimate the additional land that will be needed for development from 1980 to 1990. All future land use acreage estimates are then increased by a factor of 50%, to allow for flexibility in the real estate market. . -2- In summary, the Future Land Use Plan will show the projected location and spatial arrangement of development'in New.Hanover County in 1990 based upon: (1) projected land use needs (2) proper planning location standards, and (3) the desires of the public. Ultimately, the Future Land Use Plan and accompanying Policies for"Growth and Development should provide a blueprint for public and private decisions about land use, economic development, and the provision of public facilities and services. While the population and economic projections --generated in this report have been developed primarily to estimate future land area needs, the pro- jections can and will have many other applications. For example, the size and location of zoning districts can be directly tied to projected land area needs. The probable size and location of County -wide water and sewer service areas can be closely related to residential development densities as projected for 1990. The need for additional transportation facilities to service and/ or guide anticipated land uses can also be assessed. Therefore, it is important to keep in mind that while the projected population, economic, and land use statistics may not in themselves influence growth, the resulting Future Land Use Plan can. Part i Population Growth and Land Use Needs I. I. Summary .of Population Trends . and Projections Past Growth Trends 1) New Hanover County has experienced accelerated growth during the past decade. The average annual growth rate increased from 1.5 percent for. 1960-70 to 2.16 percent during 1970-80. 2) Preliminary counts from the 1980 U.S. Census indicate that the County's current population is 102,779, up from.82,996 in 1970. 3) The County's average annual growth rate has remained consistently higher than that of the State and is presently growing at twice the State's rate. Consequently, the County's share of the total state population is increasing. 4) Through the past decade the average annual growth rate of 2.20 for Region 110" has surpassed the County's rate of 2.16-. The County's share of Region 11 0" population has .declined slightly to.47.9 percent. from 48.2 percent in 1970 due to the accelerated growth of the other counties of the Region. Population Projections 1) New Hanover County is expected to grow by 26,521 residents during the 1980's, with a projected total population of 129,300 in 1990. 2) Net in -immigration will account for 60 to 65 percent of the County's growth during the 1980's with the remaining growth being attributed to natural increase. 3) The projected population growth for the next decade represents an average annual rate of 2.3 percent. Subarea Trends 1) New Hanover County's population majority shifted from the City of Wilmington to the unincorporated area between 1970 and 1980. - 4 - -5- 2) The unincorporated area is expected to attract the major share of the County's population growth in the 1980's. 3) Revitalization efforts and annexation during the 1980's should work to reverse Wilmington's decline in population. Population Composition. 1) Three major changes in the age structure of the County's population are expected during the 1980's. 1. The proportion of adults in the population is expected to in- crease significantly. 2. The teenage population will decline as a percentage of the total. 3. The population over 65 years of age will increase their numbers by over 35 percent. 2) The County's average household size, which fell by approximately .75 persons over the past two decades, is expected to further decline to a level of 2.50 persons per housing unit in 1990. II. overall Population Trends and Projections A. Past Trends County Growth Trends An analysis of past growth trends affords the opportunity to present information that is descriptive and also supportive of the overall popula- tion projection for the County in 1990. The recent growth history for New Hanover County is presented in Table 1 and Figure 1. Since 1930, the County's population has not grown at a uni- form rate. The 1940-50 growth rate, for example, showed a large increase over the previous de_c ae due to the County's rapid- ndustrial expansion during the war years. The large increase for 1970-80 is a result of in- dustrial expansion during the late 1960's and early 1970's. This develop- ment activity caused a reduction of out -migration and increased in -migration, resulting in a larger annual growth rate. Due to the time lag between the expansion of industry and its impacts on spin off residential growth, the impact of the area's industrial expansion on population did not fully emerge until the recent 1980 Census. The significance of the County's population.growth rate can be better appreciated when it is discussed in terms of the number of years required for the population to double at a given growth rate. At an annual rate of 1.5 percent, such as that which occurred during the 1960's in New Hanover County, the population would double in, 46 years. At the 1970-80 rate of 2.2 percent, however, only 32 years would be required for the population to double. 1 -7- TABLE 1 NEW HANOVER COUNTY POPULATION GROWTH CHARACTERISTICS FOR SELECTED YEARS 1930-1980 County Population 1930 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43,010 1940 . . . . . . . . . . . . 47,935 1950 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63,272 1960 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71,742 1970 . . . . . . . . . 82,996 1980 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 102,779 Absolute Increase 1930-40 . . . . . . . . 4,925 1940-50 . . . . . . . . . . . 15,337 1950-60 8,470 1960-70 . . . 11,254 1970-80 19,783 Average Annual Growth Rate 11 1930-40 . . . . . . . . . . . 1.1 percent 1940-50 . . . . . . . . . 2.8 percent 1950-60 . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3 percent 1960-70 . . . . . . . . . 1.5 percent 1970-80 . . . . . . . . ... . 2.2 percent Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census; Wilmington Planning Department 21 Average annual geometric growth rates are derived using the compound interest formula: Pn = Pn it + r )n Where Po is the initial population, Pn is the population at the end of the time period, n is the time period, and r is the average annual rate of change. 130 120 110 100 POPULATION 90 IN THOUSANDS 80 70 60 50 40 30 1930 -8- FIGURE POPULATION GROWTH TRENDS NEW HANOVER COUNTY 1930 - 1980 AND PROJECTED 1990 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 YEAR SOURCES U. S. BUREAU OF THE CENSUS, WILMINGTON PLANNING DEPARTMENT *SEE SECTION ON POPULATION PROJECTIONS FOR FULL DISCUSSION OF THE FIGURE FOR 1990. - 9 - ' Comparisons to State and Region "0" Trends A comparison of population growth rates at the State, regional and local level is presented in Table 2. The average annual growth rate of the County has traditionally been higher than that of the State. In the decade just passed, the County's growth rate was nearly twice that of the State. The relationship of the growth rates of the County and Region "0" V changed dramatically during the 1970-80 period. For 1950-60 and 1960-70, the County's growth rate was 2.5 and 2 times greater, respectively, than that of the region. During the 1970's, however, rapid population growth in other counties of the region caused the Region "0" average annual growth rate to exceed the County's. While New Hanover County grew at 2.16 percent per year, the Regional population increased by 2.20 percent annually. The changes in the growth rates for the State, Region, and County are further reflected in the County's share of total population of the State and Region. The County's share of population of the larger areas is shown in Table 3. As expected from the analysis of the State and County annual growth rates, New Hanover County's share of the State population is continuing to in- crease. Similarly, the comparison of the regional and county growth rates con- firms the change in the trend of the County's share of the Region's population. The County's share of Region "0" population has.declined from 48.2 percent in 1970 to 47.9 percent in 1980. I/ Region "0" consists of New Hanover, Pender, Brunswick, and Columbus Counties. TABLE Z -COMPARISON OF POPULATION GROWTH RATES - NEW HANOVER COUNTY, REGION "0", AND NORTH CAROLINA. Population 1950 1960 - 1970 1980 New Hanover County 63,272 71,742 82,996 1023779 Region "0" 151,554 159,501 172,305 214,800, North Carolina 4,061,929 4,556,155 5,082,059 5,713,416 Averaqe Annual Growth Rate 50-60 60-70 70-80 New Hanover County 1.30% 1.50% 2.16% Region "0" 0.51% 0.7,9% 2.20% North Carolina 1.15% 1.10% 1.18% Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census; North Carolina Office of State Budget and Management. TABLE NEW HANOVER COUNTY SHARE OF STATE AND REGIONAL POPULATIONS, 1950-1980 1950 1960 North Carolina 1.56% 1.57% Region "0" 41.70% 45.00% 1970 1980 1.63% 1.80% 48.20% 47.85% Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census; North Carolina Office of State Budget and Management. B. Population Projections and Methodology Projections A projected population figure for 1990 must be determined to provide a basis for estimating future land use needs and specifically the needs of future residential development. The population projection is also useful for a wide variety of other applications including estimates of future revenues, public service needs assessments, and similar related purposes. The method used in determining the projected population figure involved obtaining projections from several reputable sources, then selecting the most tenable projection based upon various evaluation methods. Following testing and evaluation, the North Carolina Office of State Management and Budget (OSMB) projection of 129,300 was accepted as the most probable population for New Hanover County in 1990. The remainder of this section discusses supportive evidence for using this figure as the projection. Under the Coastal Area Management Act's land use planning guidelines, it is recommended that local governments use.the OSMB projection unless sufficient justification can be found to select another (15 NCAC 7B..0202(e)(1)). There are several reasons for accepting the State's figure with a satisfactory level of confidence. First, comparisons with projections based on larger geographical areas sup- port the OSMB figure. Using this technique, two very similar population pro- jections were derived for the County; one by using Region "0" and the second by using the State as bases for comparison. Using Region "0" as the larger geographical area, the resulting county population projection is 129,483; with the State representing the larger area, the projection is 129,666. These figures are both within three -tenths of one percent of the OSMB figure. - 12 - A second source of supportive evidence is a population projection based on estimates of future employment. Using past and projected ratios for employ- ment, labor force and population, a 1990 population projection of 127,598 is derived. While this figure is somewhat less than projections using other methods, it is commonly known and accepted that population projections based upon employment comparisons have traditionally produced conservative growth projections. Finally, the OSMB projection method is well equipped to handle migra- tional effects, which have been a major factor in the past growth of the County, and are expected to play a continued role in the future expansion of area population. A County population of 129,300 in 1990 represents a growth of 26,521 people during --the 1980's. Of this growth, 60 to 65 percent of it can be attributed to people moving into the area from outside the County. This is a continuation of the past trends of in -migration and is the primary source of the County's growth. All of the projections presented are thought to be close enough to pro- vide reasonable support for the acceptance of 129,300 as the projected popula- tion for New Hanover County in 1990. This translates to a 2.32 percent average annual growth rate during the 1980's. Thus, the County is expected to witness a larger average annual growth rate during the coming decade than was seen during the decade just past, with in -migration continuing to account for the same percentage of total population growth. 0 - 13 - TABLE 4 Ratios of Employment to Labor Force and Labor Force to Population for New Hanover County, For Selected Years. 1960 1970 1975 1978 Employment.to Labor Force .9473 .9595 .9162 .9509 Labor Force to Population .3816 .4046 .4334 .4390 Source: Employment Security Commission of North Carolina; Wilmington Planning Department - 14 - Methodology for Population Projections This section provides more detail on the techniques used in calculating and evaluating population projections. 1) Larger Geographic Area Method By fitting curves to each set of percentage of total population values in Table 3, a projected percentage for 1990 can be extrapolated. The projected percentages can then be applied to projected 1990 population figure for the larger areas to derive a future population figure for the County. a) Region "0" -- The curve fit used for these data was a second degree polynomial. This provides a sufficient curve fit for short term projections, due to the inconsistency of the relationship of the data. According to the second degree fit, New Hanover County will represent 46.56 percent of the Region's population in 1990; This converts to a population of 129,483. b) State -- The curve fit for these data is also a second degree polynomial. It provides an excellent fit and projects that the County will represent 2.035 percent of the State population in 1990. This con- verts to a population of 129,666. 2) Employment -Based Method This method uses a curve fitting technique in much the same way as the previously described method. In this case simple linear regression was per- fromed on the employment to labor force ratios to extrapolate a 1990 ratio of 93.16. This was applied to the estimated 1990 employment level of 56,880 to arrive at a labor force of 61,056. A second linear regression function was performed on the labor force to population ratios. The projected ratio was 47.85 and when applied to the labor force figure yielded a projected popula- tion of 127,598. As stated previously, population projections based upon employment forecasts have traditionally produced conservative growth levels. 1/ 1/ Chapin, Jr., F. Stuart and Edward J. Kaiser. Urban Land Use Planning. University of Illinois Press. 1979, p. 186. - 15 - 3) Calculation for Net Migration The technique involved applying the projected birth and death rates for the next decade in New Hanover County to the projected County population for each year of the decade. This provides a total natural increase figure for the decade which can be subtracted from the total population change during the decade to give the effects of net migration. - 16 - I I I. Subarea Trends and Projections A. Introduction The purpose of this section is to examine the population trends and projections of New Hanover County in terms of its subareas. "The analysis is presented from two perspectives using the following two geographic divisions of the County: 1. Municipalities and the unincorporated area; and 2. By township. These divisions and their respective subareas are shown on Maps 1 and 2. The first division, municipalities versus the unincorporated area, provides the opportunity to examine the growth of the County from an urban versus sub. - urban perspective. The —second division basically provides a more detailed analysis of growth within the unincorporated, or suburban area. B. Municipalities Versus the Unincorporated Area Trends The dominant municipality in New Hanover County is the City of Wilmington. Wilmington's share of the County.'s population, however,.has steadily decreased from a majority of 61.4% in 1960 to 42.6% in 1980 as shown in Table 5. Con- versely, the unincorporated area has increased its proportion of the County population from 35.5% to a slight majority of 52.2% during the same period. Analysis of buiding permit data provides some indication as to the reason for this reversal. For example, between 1970 and 1980, three out of every four of the more than 10,000 permits issued for single family residential construc- tions were in the unincorporated area. This substantial change in single family residential development activity in the unincorporated area was a key factor in the population shift. - 17 - 421\ 1/• I WILMINGTON j) NEW HANOVER COUNTY PREPARED BY THE _ WILMINGTON PLANNING DEPARTMENT Isso 76 Ste/ /, :- WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH Yeµ'-�YYr 421 2 �.9 0 �ci Q Z. Q' I� 421 CAROLINA j BEACH i MAP *1 MUNICIPALITIES AND ,;. KURE UNINCORPORATED AREA BEACH OF NEW HANOVER CO. 1 'ISBO i t MUNICIPALITIES C] UNINCORPORATED AREA NEW HANOVER COUNTY PREPARED BY THE WILMINGTON PLANNING DEPARTMENT s;w. �� IS80 CAP F R T 3 WILMINGTON i WILMINGTON_ 76 WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH 4 1` ' - 0 Q Q FEDERAL POINT- ' 421 ' CAROLINA BEACH MAP . 2 E NEW HANOVER COUNTY URE BEACH TOWNSHIPS TABLE 5 NEW HANOVER COUNTY POPULATION BY MUNICIPALITY AND UNINCORPORATED AREA 1960-1990 Jurisdiction 1960 Population, % of County 1970 Population % of County 1980 Population. % of County_Population 1990 (PROJECTED) % of Count New Hanover County 71,742. 100.0 82,996 100.0 102,779 .100.0 129,300 100.0 Unincorporated Area 25,521 35.5 33,069 39.8 53,601 .52.2 76,582 59.2 City of Wilmington 44,013 61.4 46,169 55.6 43,779 42.6 44,518 34.4 Wrightsville Beach 723 1.0 1,701 2.1 2,786 2.7 4,500 3.5 Carolina Beach 1,192 1.7 1,663 2.0 .2,067 2.0 2,652 2.1 Kure Beach 293 0.4 .394 0..5.. 54-6 0..5 1,048 0.8 Sources: U.S. Bureau of the Census; Carolina, Kure and Wrightsville Beaches, Wilmington Planning Department - 20 - The beach municipalities continued to experience --population increases during the 1970's according to preliminary 1980 census figures. The percent increase for Wrightsville and Carolina Beaches was less than that of the 1960's while Kure Beach had a slight increase in its rate of growth. In summary, the comparison of growth trends in terms of municipalities versus the unincorporated area indicates that the large majority of growth is occuring in the unincorporated area at the expense of the City of.Wilmington. Although the beach areas are growing at a steady rate, their combined absolute increase represents less than one -tenth that which occurred in the unincorpo- rated area. Projections The 1990 projected populations presented in Table 5 generally show a.con- tinuation of the trends outlined above. Figures for the beach municipalities were obtained from their 1980 land use plan updates. The City of Wilmington projec- tion was derived by the technique of simple regression of the 1960, 1970 and 1980 percentage of the total County population. The resulting 1990 projected percentage was then applied to the projected county total of 129,300 to obtain the City figure. Similarly, the figure for the unincorporated area was obtained by subtracting the projected municipal totals from the projected total population of the County. As a result, the unincorporated area population will comprise 59.2% of the County total in 1990. This percentage matches that obtained by simple regression using the 1960, 1970 and 1980 "percent of the County." According to recent studies, there is a sufficient amount of suitable un- developed land located in the unincorporated area to accommodate this projected 1/ growth Wilmington -.New Hanover County Comprehensive Planning Program, .1980`CAMA !and Use'Plan Update, Classification of Soils for Septic Tank Suitability in New Hanover County, 1980. - 21 C. Townships Trends As shown on Map 2, New Hanover County is comprised of five townships. The Wilmington .Township contains all areas within the City of Wilmington in- cluding the satellite area of Echo Farms. Wrightsville Beach is located in Harnett Township and Carolina and Kure Beaches are in the Federal Point Town- ship. Table 6 shows population trends in each of the townships over the past three decennial censuses. As the figures indicate, each of the townships has had steady population increases throughout the 20-year period, with the ex- ception of Wilmington which lost residents between 1970,and 1980. Furthermore, had the city not annexed a considerable area in 1965, the period between 1960 and 1970 would have also shown a decline. As previously stated, Wilmington's percentage of the total County popula- tion has consistently declined over the last two decades, while each of the other townships have significantly increased their shares of the total popula- tion. However, there is a substantial difference in the percentage of total population and the rates of change in the other townships. For example, the Harnett Township increased its share of the County total by 5.2 percentage points between 1970 and 1980 while the increase in the Cape Fear and Federal Point townships was 1.7 percentage points each. The Harnett and Masonboro Townships continue to attract the largest share of growth in New Hanover County, showing 9,512 and 6,280 person increases, respectively, during the 1970's. The Federal Point and Cape Fear Townships, while showing substantial growth percentagewise (59.3% and 49.6% respectively), did not show an absolute increase near the magnitude of the Harnett and Mason- boro increases. TABLE 6 NEW HANOVER COUNTY POPULATION BY TOWNSHIP ' 1960 - 1990 Township 1960 of Population County 1970 Population %, of County 1980 Population % of County : 1990 % of Population County (Projected) CAPE FEAR 4,238 5.9 6,734 8.1 10,073 9.8 15,301 11.8FEDERAL POINT 3,234 4.5 613 6.2 8,147 7.9 12,399 9.6 HARNETT 14,427 20.1 17,427 21.0 26,939 26.2 37,988 29.4 MASONBORO 5,830 8.1 7,553 9.1 13,841 13.5 19,094 14.8 WILMINGTON 44,013 61.4 46,169 55.6 43,779 42.6 44,518 34.4 NEW HANOVER COUNTY TOTAL 71,742 100 .82,996 100 102,779 100 129,300 100 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census and Wilmington Planning Department - 23 - 0 In the coming decade the area outside the City of Wilmington can expect to increase its majority of population. According to preliminary 1980 census figures, the decrease in Wilmington's share of the County population was approxi- mately 13 percent. This pattern has been observed over the past forty years, despite annexations of large areas during that period. This trend is expected to show a slight reversal during the 1980's due to additional annexations and revitalization efforts. In spite of these efforts, however, areas outside the City will still absorb the majority of population growth. Projections Based on the percent of County population trends for each township shown in Table 6, projected percentages were derived for the year 1990 using simple regression. The projected percentages were then applied to the projected total county population figure of 129,300 to obtain the individual township projections also shown in Table 6. These projections reflect a continuation of the trends identified in the preceding section. In addition to being statistically sound, these trends are supported by empirically observed patterns of subdivision activity during the period of 1974-1979. D. Impact of Annexation on Subarea Growth Annexation by the City of Wilmington would alter the projections presented in this section for various subareas. Table 7 indicates what effect proposed annexation, currently under study by the City, would have on various subareas. As Table 7 reveals, the proposed annexation would increase the City's share of the total County population in 1990 by roughly 5 percent. This would add approximatly 6600 residents to the City population. The Masonboro Township would ` - 24 - supply the majority of residents (approximately 6,000), while Harnett Town- ship losses to the City would be negligible (approximately 600 residents). -25- Table 7 EFFECT OF PROPOSED ANNEXATION BY CITY OF WILMINGTON ON NEW HANOVER COUNTY SUB AREAS: 1990 PROJECTED POPULATION WITHOUT ANNEXATION OF POPULATION COUNTY WITH ANNEXATION % OF POPULATION COUNTY CITY OF WILMINGTON 44,518 34.4 51,113 39.5 UNINCORPORATED AREA 76,582 59.2 69,987 54.1 HARNETT TOWNSHIP -- - 37,988 29.4 37,332 28.9 MASONBORO TOWNSHIP 19,094 14.8 13,155 10.2 Source: Wilmington Planning Department -26- IV. Changes in Population, Composition and Housing Deeds A. Introduction Changes in the composition of New Hanover County's population will play a key role in shaping the pattern of urban growth during the 1980's. This will be especially true in the area of housing, the demand for which will be a function of age structure,and family and household characteristics. While it is difficult to predict precise changes in the character of the population at the local level, there are several demographic trends that have been identified at the local level, and confirmed nationally over the past two decades. In the following sections, several of these trends are discussed with an eye toward estimating their potential impact on future housing and residential land use needs. B. Changes in Age Structure Three major changes in the age structure of the County's population are expected during the 1980's. First, the proportion of adults in the population is expected to increase significantly. As is the case across the nation, large numbers of children born during the post-war period are now reaching maturity in New Hanover County. This is causing the 25 to 44 year old age group in particular, to swell its ranks. The County's 35 to 44 year old age group is expected to.show the most dramatic gain with a 70% increase by 1990. (See Table 8.) Second, while the teenage population of the County will decline as a per- centage of the total, a new surge in the number of children less than 5 years of age is anticipated, due to the number of women entering their childbearing years. Third, improved health care and increased life expectancies will continue to push a large percentage of the local and national population into the elderly - 27 - TABLE 8 POPULATION STRUCTURE OF NEW HANOVER COUNTY BY AGE, 1970, 1980, AND 1990 Change % Change AGE GROUP 1970 1980 1990 1970-1980 1980-1990 Under 5 7,117 7,115 11,066 -0.0 +55.5 5 - 14 16,483 16,359 .17,916 -0.8 + 9.5 15 - 24 14,559 19,350 19,187 +32.9 - 0.8 25 - 34 10,799 18,331 24,366 +69.8 +32.9 35 - 44 9,590 12,355 21,016 +28.8 +70.1 45 - 54 9,956 9,906 12,804 - 0.5 +29.3 55 - 64 7,527 9,492 9,496 +26.1 + 0.0 Over 65 6,965 9,899 13,414 +42.1 +35.5 TOTAL 82,996 102,807 129,265 +23.9 +25.7 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census for 1970 figures N.C. Office of State Budget and Management for 1980 and 1990 figures - 28 ranks. The increasing attractiveness of New Hanover County as a retirement area will no doubt foster this growth as well. Table 8 indicates that persons over 65 years of age will increase their numbers by over 35% during the 1980's. C. Household Characteristics The number of new households formed in the coming decade will be reflected by several dominant local and national trends including declining household and family size, and a reduction in the proportion of husband -wife households due to anticipated gains in single parent and non -family households. Locally, steady declines in average household size have been observed during the past two decades. Table 9 illustrates these consistent decreases and facil- itates household size -comparisons between areas. Since 1960, New Hanover County's average household size has declined by roughly.75 persons per housing unit. This means that today's lifestyles require five homes in 1980 to house the same number of people that four homes accommodated in 1960. The rapid growth of non -family households has been a major reason for the sharp decline in the average U.S. household size during the 1970's. Nationally, non -family households increased by 66% between 1970 and 1979 compared with only 1/ a 12% growth in family households. The figures in Table 9 show that as New Hanover County has become more urbanized, the average household size of area homes has become smaller than the national average. This trend has become especially noticeable in the City of Wilmington, where the number of persons per household fell dramatically from 1970 to 1980. While average household sizes are expected to continue to United States Department of Commerce News, "Non -family Households Have In- creased by Two -Thirds Since 1970, Census Report Shows" November 26, 19.79. -29- decline at the national and local levels, demographic experts/anticipate that future declines will be much less than those of the 1970's. 1/ United States Department of Commerce News, "Less Change Ahead for American Family? Census Bureau Demographers Think So." February 11, 1979. -30- TABLE 9 AVERAGE HOUSEHOLD SIZE NEW HANOVER COUNTY AND UNITED STATES 1960 1970 _ 1980 1990 New Hanover County 3.43 3.12 - 2.69 2.50 City of Wilmington 3.36 2.95 - 2.45 2.20 Unincorporated County - - 2.91 2.70 Planning Area - - 2.70 2.51 United States 3.33 3.14 2.74 2.58 Source: .1960 and 1970 figures and all figures for the United States are from U.S. Census Bureau. 1980 and 1990 figures are estimates of Wilmington Planning Department. - 31 - D. Gross Housing Needs: 1980 to 1990 New Hanover County, which saw its housing stock increase by over 11,800 units during the 1970's, will net an additional 12,300 units during the 1980's, after demolitions. This estimate was obtained by dividing the projected total population by the projected average household size for 1990. An allowance was made for an estimated vacancy rate of 7% in 1990, to arrive at the total hous- ing unit figure shown in Table 10. For the area of the County within the current Wilmington City limits, a net increase of approximately 1,873 units is forecast for 1990. This figure alone does not present a complete picture of the housing activity forecast for the City between 1980 and 1990, since demolitions -will work to offset new con- struction. To illustrate, in Table 11 the assumption is made that about 5% (1,000 units) of the City's 1980 housing stock will be razed during the 1980's. Thus, roughly 2,900 new units will have to be built in the City in the next ten years to achieve the 1900 unit net increase (after demolitions) by the end of the decade. In contrast to the modest increase in housing forecast for the City, the unincorporated area of the County will continue to reap the largest share of area residential construction. By 1990, the unincorporated County should see over 9,000 units added to its current housing inventory, representing over three - fourths of the net increase in total County housing during the coming decade. E. Housing Demand By Type Owier-Occupied Versus'Rental Housing For New Hanover County, future housing construction is expected to place a greater emphasis on owner -occupied units. Private sector rental housing con- struction is expected to fall almost entirely, resulting in a tighter rental market and associated declines in area vacancy rates. 2/ 1980 3/ 1990 (Projected) - 32 - TABLE 10 POPULATION, HOUSING, AND HOUSEHOLD SIZE NEW HANOVER COUNTY (INCLUDING BEACH COMMUNITIES) POPULATION TOTAL HOUSING UNITS OCCUPIED HOUSING UNITS AVERAGE HOUSEHOLD SIZE 71,742 34,578 20,932 3.43 82,996 31,475 26,623 3.12 102,779 43,287 38,208 2.69 129,300 55,594 51,702 2.50 1/ Source: U.S. Census of Population ?/ Source: U.S. Census of Population, Preliminary Counts, October, 1980 3/ Assumes a 7% vacancy rate including beach communities (1980 vacancy rate: 10.8% County -wide). Projections by N.C. State Office of Budget and Management and Wilmington Planning Department. t TABLE 11 SUBAREA POPULATION, HOUSING, AND HOUSEHOLD SIZES CITY OF W]IMTNGTON UNTNCORPORATFn NEW HANOVFR CnIINTY PIANNING AREA YEAR POPULATION TOTAL HOUSING UNITS OCCUPIED HOUSING UNITS AVERAGE HOUSEHOLD SIZE POPULATION TOTAL HOUSING UNITS OCCUPIED HOUSING UNITS AVERAGE HOUSEHOLD SIZE TOTAL HOUSING POPULATION UNITS OCCUPIED HOUSING UNITS AVERAGE HOUSEHOLD SIZE 1960 44,013 14,158 13,111 3.36 - - - - - - - - 1970 46,169 17,223 15,639 2.95 33,069 10,554 - - - - - - 1980 43,779 19,205 17,869 2.45 53,904 19,817 18,537 2.91 97,687. 39,022 36,186 2.70 1990 44.518 21,078 20,235 2.20 76,582 29,241 28,364 3/ 2.70 121,100 50,319 48,599 2.51 (Projected) Y All figures are without potential annexations. 2/ Assumptions: The City-wide vacancy rate will fall from 8% in 1980 to 4% in 1990. Also, 5% of the 1980 housing stock for Wilmington will be demolished during the 1980's. 3/ Assume a 3% vacancy rate. - 34 - Several changes in demographic and economic conditions will combine to shape the increased demand for owner -occupied housing. High interest rates, caused by inflation, will work to slow new construction and will cause the price of all housing types to escalate. New rental housing, except that built under federal insurance or subsidy programs, will be particularly hard hit. Nationally, this is due in part to rent increases which have lagged well be- hind increases in construction and operating costs --of rental housing. As evidence, the Consumer Price Index for rental units rose only 75% from 1967 to 2/ 1979, while the overall CPI increased 116%. Finally, the County's burgeoning post-war baby boom generation, which con- tributed to a high demand for apartments in the early 1970's, will be moving into the home buying age bracket. A11 of these factors lead experts to predict a dim future for private sector rental housing, with owner -occupied units accounting for as much as three fourths of all new housing to be built during 3/ the coming decade. Despite the lack of up-to-date owner -occupancy information for New Hanover County, statistics for 1960 and 1970 are indicative of the County's tendency to follow national trends (Table 12). While precise predictions of future local ownership percentages cannot be made with certainty, it is safe to say that new rental housing construction will no doubt decline markedly during the 1980's, compared to the 1970's. Bureau of National Affairs, Inc. Housing and Development Reporter Current Developments, "Landrieu Sees Steady Decline in Rental Housing Production" 3-3-80 p. 833. 2/ , "Moderate Increase in Multifamily Starts Predicted for 1980's" 9-17-79, p. 349. 3/ Bureau of National Affairs, Inc. "Annual Housing Demand for 80's Estimated at 2.3 to 2.7 Million Units" 12-24-79 pp. 645-6. - 35 TABLE 12 HOUSING BY TENURE WILMINGTON, NEW HANOVER COUNTY, AND THE UNITED STATES % Owner Occupied % Rental Occupied 1960 1970 1960 1970 WILMINGTON 50.5 51.5 49.5 48.5 NEW HANOVER 58.3 62.9 41.7 37.1 UNITED STATES 61.7 62.9----- 38.1 37.1 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census - 36 - Single Family Versus Multifamily Housing As New Hanover County has become urbanized, the mix of single and multi- family construction has established a clear difference of development between the City and the unincorporated County. A recent survey of existing land use revealed that multifamily units today comprise only -about 2% of the total l/ housing stock in the unincorporated area. In contrast, over 44%,of all homes in the City are of multifamily construction. Residential construction activities during the-1970's did little to change this development pattern. Building permit records for the decade indicate that 94% of all residential construction authorized in the unincorporated area involved single family development. By contrast, about 73% of all resi- dential construction authorized inside the City was for multifamily units. While it is known that not all units authorized locally were actually completed, the figures provide a good indication of the relative distribution and levels of construction activity of single versus multifamily units. Several national trends and predictions for the 1980's may provide some indication of what is in store for New Hanover County in the -near future. For example, most housing experts agree that the current national mix of 70% single family, 30% multifamily construction will continue through at least the early 1980's.. While the rising costs of single family homes will continue to make multifamily development financially attractive to the homeowner, lagging rents, exclusionary zoning, and rent controls will work to dampen the overall growth of multifamily production nationwide. Consequently, some forecasters have 1/ Wilmington -New Hanover Comprehensive Planning. Program, 1980 CAMA Land Use Plan Update,'Analysis of'Existing Land Use, August, 1980. TABLE 13 RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION, WILMINGTON, UNINCORPORATED NEW HANOVER COUNTY, TOTAL PLANNING AREA: 1970-1979 Number of Units Percentages Totals y 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 197U-1979 Subarea Wilmington Single Family 437 369 192 35 49 60 58 55 65 85 1,405 27% Multi -Family 411 314 1,171 1,197 412 2 150 27 78 3,762 73% Total 848 683 1,363 1,232 461 62 $$ 205 92 163 5,167 100% Unincorporated New Hanover County r. Single Family 701 752 866 830 427 420 510 613 619 612 6,350 94% Multi -Family 20 66 32 269 2 0 4 4 0 397 6% Total 721 818 898 1,099 429 420 ST0 617 623 612 6,747 100% Total Planning Area Single Family 1,138 1,121 1,058 865 476 480 568 668 684 697 7,755 65% Multi -Family 431 380 1,203 1,466 414 2 154 31 78 4,159 35% Total 1,569 1,501 2,261 2,331 890 _ 482 S-61T 822 742 775 11,914 100% Source: Building Inspection Departments, Wilmington and New Hanover County. NOTE: Wilmington has at one time issued permits within 1 mile jurisdiction. - 38 - predicted little or no decrease in multifamily housing as a percent of total 1/ housing starts. Locally, several factors point toward a growing interest in multifamily,. owner -occupied housing. For example, prime waterfront sites with good access are diminishing in both number and total acreage county -wide. When site - specific environmental constraints are combined with this general decline in available waterfront locations, the result is increased incentive for cluster - type housing developments. Recent efforts at revising County land use controls to add more flexibility for multifamily development are a reflection of this trend. Thus, despite apparent local consumer preferences for single family housing, New Hanover County's demonstrated tendency to follow national trends could show its affects during the 1980's. With the continued heavy in -migration of new residents and the added possibility of a County -wide water and sewer system, the presence of multifamily developments in the unincorporated area could become a reality in the near future. 1/ Bureau of National Affairs, Housing and Development Reporter, Current Developments, "Moderate Increase in Multifamily Starts Predicted for 1980's," 9-17-79, pp. 349-50. , "Strong Housing Demand, Ample Mortgage Funds are Forecast for 1978" 9-18-78, pp. 445-6. "Rental Housing Facing Crisis, Says Janis," 5-14-79, p. 445. -39- M Residential Land Use Needs: igSo-iggo Estimates of future land area needs for residential development can be made using the population and housing projections prepared in the previous section. As Tables 14 and 15 indicate, the 1990 residential acreage estimates for the City of Wilmington and the Unincorporated Area are a function of several variables including: overall population growth and subarea distribu- tion, average household size, housing vacancy rates, and current and projected development densities. Note, for example that in both the _City and the Unincorporated County, declining average household sizes will increase the number of housing units necessary to accommodate the area's future population. At the same time, rising land costs, increasing emphasis on multifamily development, and the prospect of County water and sewer service will work to reduce the amount of land needed for new housing. As private sector rental housing production falters, and new construction of all types becomes more costly, vacancy rates will decline. To a lesser degree, this too will cause a reduction in the amount of housing and land needed. The overwhelming population growth of the Unincorporated County in re- lation to the City, however, will have the most telling impact upon future land needs. As Table 15 shows, the Unincorporated Area will need more than ten times as much new land set aside for residential development, compared to the City. It is important, therefore, that the Planning Area's public policies and investments work to meet the needs of this anticipated growth. - 40 TABLE 14 POPULATION, HOUSING AND RESIDENTIAL LAND USE NEW HANOVER COUNTY 1980 Wilmington Unincorporated County Planning Area .New Hanover County, Population 43,779 53,904 97,687 102,779 Housing Units 19,205 19,817 39,022 43,287 Occupied 17,869 18,537 36,186 38,208 Vacant 1,336 1,280 2,836 5,079 Average Household Size 2.45 2.91 2.70 2.69 Residentially Developed 3,252 10,631 13,883 - Acreage Housing Units/Residential 5.91 1.86 2.81 - Acre Source: Wilmington Planning Department and 1980 Preliminary Counts, U.S. Bureau of Census. - 41 - TABLE 15 POPULATION, HOUSING AND RESIDENTIAL LAND USE NEW HANOVER COUNTY 1990 PROJECTIONS Wilmington Unincorporated County Planning, Area New Hanover County Population 44,518 76,582 121,100 129,300 Housing Units 21,078 29,241 50,319 55,594 Occupied 20,235 28,364 48,599 51,702 l/ Vacant 843 877 1,720 3,892 Average Household Size 2.20 2.70 2.51 2.50 Net Increase in Housing Units (1980-1990). 1,873 9,42+ 11,297 12,307. Avg. No. of New Housing Units/Acre 2/ 7.0 3.5 3.8 - Additional Residential Acreage Required 268 2,693 2,961 - +50% (Market Flexibility) 134 1,347 1,481 - Total Additional Residential Acreage 392 4,040 4,432 - Numbers of vacant units are based upon assumed vacancy rates in 1990 of 4% in the City, and 3% in the Unincorporated Area. 2/ Future densities for new development are based upon staff evaluation of recent local and national development trends. SOURCE: Wilmington Planning Department, 1980 C Economic Growth M. Land Use � eads 11 - 43 1) As New Hanover County is becoming more dense►y settled, it is strengthen- ing its role as the trade and service center of southeastern North Carolina; manufacturing employment is becoming less dominant. 2) While manufacturing employment in New Hanover County since the early 1960's has exhibited sporadic growth, non -manufacturing employment (principally trade and service industries) has shown steady, consistent gains. 3) For the first time in several decades, manufacturing industries now pro- vide fewer than one in four jobs in New Hanover County. 4) In the early 1960's nine out of ten jobs in the Wilmington SMSA (Brunswick and New Hanover Counties) were in New Hanover County; by 1978, that figure had fallen to eight in ten. 5) In the coming decade, it is projected that New Hanover County will have 12,700 new jobs; of which 5,000 will be office and institutional, 4,000 will be commercial and 3,000 will be in manufacturing. -44- II. Assessing the Economy: Data Used In evaluating the economic conditions of a local area, two types of basic information are available: 1) labor force statistics, which describe the residents of an area with respect to how many are employed or unemployed, and what their socio-economic characteristics are; and 2) work force statistics, which describe the type and number of JOBS o fered by New Hanover County employers. Members of the New Hanover County labor force may have jobs outside the County. Conversely, members of the work force may be residents of other counties who commute into New Hanover County for employment. The primary purpose of preparing this economic analysis is to estimate and set aside proper amounts of land necessary to meet the future develop- ment needs of New Hanover County's employers. The analysis seeks to estimate the number and type of jobs that will be created during the 1980 to 1990 decade. Therefore, work force statistics, rather than labor force figures, are used in this report to analyze industrial growth trends within the County and to estimate future non-residential land use needs. In describing the industrial mix of the County, it should be noted that the word "industries" refers to both manufacturing and non -manufacturing types. The future land area needs of trade, government, service, and other "industries" are therefore also addressed in this section. Collectively, these industries make up the non-residential element of all developed land in New Hanover County. Unless otherwise indicated, the work force data used in the analysis in- cludes only "Industry Employment by Place of Work" as provided by the North Carolina Employment Security Commission (ESC). "Agricultural Employment" and "All Other Non-agricultural Employment" (including non-agricultural self-employed workers, unpaid family workers, and domestic workers in private households) are - 45 - reported under labor force by the ESC. For this reason, employment figures listed under these two "Non -Industry Employment" categories are not included in the land use needs analysis. The effect of omitting these workers from the needs assessment is negligible, since many of the workers are employed within private houses, on farms, etc. For completeness, however, Table 16 provides total employment figures by place of work including both Industry and Non -Industry workers. Figure 2 presents estimates of just the Non -Industry portion of the total County work force. While the ESC reported a total of 41,780 jobs in 1978, the actual number of persons working in the County was 48,190 or 15.3% more (See Table 16.) INDUSTRY EMPLOYMENT BY PLACE OF WORK 1/ Manufacturing Non -Manufacturing NON -INDUSTRY EMPLOYMENT BY PLACE OF WORK Agricultural Employment by place of work All other Non -Agricultural employment by place of work 2/ TOTAL EMPLOYMENT 1/ BY PLACE OF WORK TABLE 16 EMPLOYMENT BY PLACE OF WORK NEW HANOVER COUNTY 1962-1969 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 21,300 22,220 22,940 24,500 26,000 26,990 28,560 30,600 6,400 6,540 6,520 6,940 7,570 7,880 8,350 9,380 14,900 15,680 16,420 17,560 18,430 19,110 20,210 21,220 5,320 5,580 5,930 5,940 5,910 5,790 5,830 6,010 c 760 860 780 640 630 570 530 490 0 a� 4,560 4,720 5,150 5,300 5,280 5,220 5,300 5,520' c 26,620 27,800 28,870 30,440 31,910 32,780 34,390 36,610 0 ., 1/ Figures taken directly from North Carolina Employment Security Commission Data. 2/ Includes Nonagricultural self-employed workers, unpaid family workers, and domestic workers in private households. TABLE 16 (Continued) EMPLOYMENT BY PLACE OF WORK NEW HANOVER COUNTY 1970-1978 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 INDUSTRY EMPLOYMENT BY PLACE OF WORK 1/ 32,350 31,380 34,330 37,580 38,890 36,570 38,230 39,160 41,780 Manufacturing 9,830 9,030 10,160 10,700 10,570 9,710 10,240 9,890 9,880 Non -Manufacturing 22,520 22,350 24,170 26,880 28,320 26,860 27,990 29,270 31,900 NON -INDUSTRY EMPLOYMENT 2/ BY PLACE OF WORK 5,860 5,740 6,040 6,120 6,180 6,240 6,300 6,360 6,410 Agricultural Employment by place of work 470 470 450 450 430 410 390 370 350 , All other Non -Agricultural Employment by place of � work 3/. 5,390 5,270 5,590 5,670 5,750 5,830 5,910 5,990 6,060 ' TOTAL EMPLOYMENT 4/ BY PLACE OF WORK 38,210 37,120 40,370 43,700 45,070 42,810 44,530 45,520 48,190 l/ Figures taken directly from North Carolina Employment Security Commission Data. 2/ Figures for period after 1972 are estimates of the Wilmington - New Hanover Planning Department (Linear Regression Method). 3/ Includes Nonagricultural self-employed workers, unpaid family workers, and domestic workers in private households. 4/ Figures for period after 1972 are estimates of the Wilmington -New Hanover Planning Department. .•.• 40 00- WORK FORCE 3000- • • • ... FIGURE 2 NON -INDUSTRY EMPLOYMENT BY PLACE OF WORK 1962 TO 1978 NEW HANOVER COUNTY E.S.C. FIGURES -,-PLANNING DEPT. ESTIMATES MENNEN sommom EMEMEMEMMENEEMEM mommommommommoom MEEMEMEMEMEEMMEM mommommoommommom EMEEMEEMEMEEMMEM mommommommommomm MEMMEMEMEMEEMMEM Emommommoommoomm amommmo MEN NONAGRICULTURAL SELF-EMPLOYED WORKERS, UNPAID FAMILY WORKERS, A DOMESTIC WORKERS IN PRIVATE HOUSEHOLDS AGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT 1962 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 YEAR N.C. EMPLOYMENT SECURITY COMMISSION * WILMINGTON-NEW HANOVER PLANNING DEPT: I 4 co I TABLE .1 7 INDUSTRY EMPLOYMENT BY PLACE OF WORK SELECTED YEARS 1963-1978 NEW HANOVER COUNTY AND 14ILMINGTON SMSA NEW HANOVER COUNTY AVERAGE INDUSTRY WORK FORCE EST MiATES % OF INDUSTRY WORK FORCE 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 Total Industry Employment 22,2110 26,000 30,600 34,330 36,570 41,780 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Mamrfacturinu 6,540 7,570 9,380 10,160 9,710 9,880 29.4 29.1 30.7 29.6 26.6 23.7 Non -Manufacturing 15,680 18,430 21,220 24,170 26,860 31,900 70.6 70.9 69.3 70.4 73.4 76.3 WILMINGTON SMSA AVERAGE INDUSTRY WORK FORCE ESTIMATES % OF INDUSTRY WORK FORCE 1963 1966 1969 1912 1975 1978 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 Total Industry Employment 24,410 28,520 34,970 43,220 45.400 51,180 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Manufacturing 6,870 7,950 10,590 12,720 13,030 13,220 28.1 27.9 30.3 29.4 28.7 25.8 Non-Mauufacturing 17,540 20.570 24,380 30,500 32.370 37,960 71.9 72.1 69.7 70.6 71.3 74.2 r .tom Source: North Carolina Employment Security Coimuission and Wilmington - New Hanover Planning Department . - 50 0 III. New Hanover County and the Wilmington SMSA A. Total Work Force Figure 3 and Table 18 show the changes that have occurred during the 196O's and 1970's in the number of jobs in New Hanover County relative to the Wilmington SMSA (Brunswick and New Hanover Counties combined). Two trends may be discerned from the information provided. First, it is clear that while New Hanover County continues to supply the bulk of all employment opportunities in the SMSA, the percentage of employment opportunities offered in the County fell -'substantially during the 19601s In 1963, nine out of ten jobs in the two -county area were in NeW Hanover County. By 1972, this figure had fallen to fewer than eight jobs in ten. These figures are a re- sult of the rapid industrial growth experienced by Brunswick County during that period, relative to New Hanover. From 1972 to 1978, however, the location of job offerings exhibited a reversal of the earlier trend, with slight gains in the percentage of SMSA employment posted in New Hanover County. This most recent trend may be indicative of the growth in services which typically follow increases in manufacturing employment, and which also tend to locate close to population concentrations such as those in New Hanover County. The figures lend support to the notion that the area is experiencing a spillover effect, as the urbanized core of New Hanover County continues to expand, forcing major new industrial land users to seek locations across the river in Brunswick County. The proposed Brunswick Energy Company Oil Refinery is a case in point. Planned for a 1,990 acre tract of land a short distance across the river from the Wilmington urbanizing area, the - 51 - FIG 60 50 NEW HANOVER COUNTY 40 cWi c LL 0 30 � O 0 3 .. 20 10 1972 1975 1978 1963 1966 1969 YEAR SOURCE: N.G. EMPLOYMENT SECURITY COMMISSION AND wILMIN070N-Ntw ngNuvtN r1-Annmw ucrMn. ncn. I NEW HANOVER COUNTY WORK FORCE .AS A PERCENTAGE OF S.M.S.A. WORK FORCE TABLE IS TOTAL WORK FORCE SMSA NEW HANOVER COUNTY NEW HANOVER COUNTY % OF SMSA 1963. 24,410 22,220 91.0 1966 28,520 26,000 91.2 1969' 34,790 30,600 88.0 1972 43,220 34,330 79.4 1975 45,400 36,570 80.6 1978 51,180 41,780 81.6 Source: North Carolina Employment Security Commission and Wilmington - New Hanover Planning Department . <e' S&TM refinery is a good example of an industry which requires the abundant and less expensive land area available in nearby counties. At the same time, however, the refinery and its employees must also have the transportation network, utilities and services spawned or provided by the City of Wilmington. Consequently, in the development of the Future Land Use Plan, it is important that New Hanover County be recognized as the urban center of a much larger, growing region. B. Manufacturing Versus Non -Manufacturing Employment The previous section indicated that the industrial work force of New Hanover County as a percentage of all Wilmington SMSA workers fell markedly during the 1960's but remained relatively stable -during the 1970's. Using employment figures for manufacturing and non -manufacturing industrial employ- ment, it can be further shown that manufacturing is becoming less important in New Hanover County relative to manufacturing in the SMSA as a whole. To see this, attention should be focused on the lower portion of each vertical bar in Figures 4 and 5. Note that while SMSA manufacturing employ- ment exhibited steady increases from 1963 to 1978, manufacturing jobs in New Hanover County appear to have reached a peak in the early 1970's. Additionally, Figures 4 and 5 show that since about 1969, manufacturing employment as a percentage of total employment has been falling in both the County and the SMSA. This is not surprising in that declines in manufactur- ing employment as a percentage of total employment have been a national trend during the same period. This trend has not resulted from production cutbacks, but from increased mechanization and improved technology. Noteworthy, however,.is the fact that manufacturing employment as a percentage fell faster in New Hanover County during the 1980's than in the SMSA during the same period. In 1969, manufacturers in New Hanover County FIGURE I FIGURE S MANUFACTURING a NON -MANUFACTURING WORK FORCE AS A MANUFACTURING 81 NON -MANUFACTURING WORK FORCE AS A PERCENT OF TOTAL NEW HANOVER COUNTY. PERCENT OF TOTAL S.M.S.A INDUSTRIAL EMPLOYMENT ` INDUSTRIAL EMPLOYMENT NEW HANOVER COUNTY 45 Q NOW MANUFACTURING 40 MANUFACTURING O a 30 N O 25 W 20 70.6 70.9 Y 3 19 10 5 29.4 28.1 0 31 170.9 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 YEAR 1963 I9bb IJby Iyr4 1ti10 Iylts YEAR SOURCE N. C. EMPLOYMENT SECURITY COMMISSION AND WILMINGTON-NEW HANOVER PLANNING DEPARTMENT -54- and the SMSA accounted for 30.7% and 30.3%, respectively, of all industry employment. By 1978, these percentages had fallen to 23.7% in the County and 25.8% in the SMSA -- a reversal of their earlier positions. In 1978, for the first time in several decades, manufacturing industries employed fewer than 1 in 4 workers in New Hanover County. Table 19 examines manufacturing growth in the.City of Wilmington and New Hanover County relative to the Wilmington SMSA and the State of North Carolina. From the perspective of numbers of manufacturing establishments, Table 19 shows that from 1963 to 1977 manufacturing firms in New Hanover County grew in number at rouc!hly the same rate as the State. Manufacturing establishments in SMSA expanded their ranks faster than either,the County or the State during the same 15 year period. From 1972 to 1977, this relation- ship was especially noticeable, with New Hanover County gaining only 15 new establishments while the SMSA added 32. If value added figures are examined for the same period, however, the numbers reveal that New Hanover County accounted for nearly all of the value added to products made in the SMSA. Additionally, since 1963 New Hanover County manufacturing establishments have been responsible for over 95% of all capital expenditures in the two -county SMSA. These figures reflect several characteris- tics of manufacturing interests in the County relative to the SMSA as a whole. First, despite rapid increases in manufacturing activity in Brunswick County in recent years, New Hanover County continues to hold the lion's share of all manu- facturing in the SMSA. Second, the New Hanover County manufacturing base has shifted to high technology processes over the last two decades, such as the production of chemicals and fabricated metals. This has contributed to the growth of capital intensive, rather than labor intensive manufacturers. TABLE 19 NUMBER OF MANUFACTURING ESTABLISHMENTS AND VALUE ADDED WILMINGTON, NEW HANOVER COUNTY, THE WILMINGTON SMSA, AND NORTH CAROLINA - 1963-1977 1963 North Carolina % INCREASE 1967 1972 1977 1963-1977 Establishments 7,784 8,266 8,632 9;939 27.7 Value Added by Manufacturing 4,566,547 6,606,500 11,009,700 NA ---- Capital Expenditures 314,428 664,600 989,300 NA ---- SMSA Establishments 133 156 149 181 36.1 Value Added by Manufacturing 43,263 85,700 481,200 NA ---- Capital Expenditures 16,710 50,800 120,700 NA ---- New Hanover County Establishments 106 113 120 135 27.4 Value Added by Manufacturing 36,896 80,300 473,800 NA ---- Capital Expenditures 16,084 50,500 120,300 NA ---- Wilmington Establishments 70 76 ---- Value Added Data Not Data by Manufacturing 26,016 52,900 Available NA ---- Capital Expenditures 1,184 (D) ---- Note: Value added by manufacturing and capital expenditures are in thousands of dollars. (D) Withheld to avoid disclosure. Sources: Census of Manufacturers, U. S. Bureau of the Census, 1963, 1967, & 1972 Perliminary 1977 Census of Manufacturers, U. S. Bureau of the Census, October 1979. I Ul Ln -56- Third, contrary to witnessing heavy capital investment by new industries, New Hanover County has seen existing manufacturers in recent years invest their capital on the expansion of their established operations. These statements lend credence to the idea that as the County becomes more densely settled, manufacturing growth is likely to be located on or adjacent to existing manufacturing sites, and such growth will not involve large numbers of workers, relative to the rapidly.growing non -manufacturing (service) industries. Another reason given for the apparent leveling off of manufacturing employment involves a whole host of limiting factors that can work individually and collectively to define the capacity of New Hanover County for accepting manufacturing industries. Included among these factors are: the ability of streets and highways to accept additional heavy traffic; the availability of fresh surface and ground water; the ability of man-made and natural systems to accept and treat sanitary and solid wastes; the amount of vacant develop- able land, and the number of competing land use activities vying for the same locations. Thus, the competition among manufacturing and non -manufacturing industries, and residential developments, for road space, water supplies, sewage treatment capacity and buildable sites adjacent to transportation facilities, may be pricing manufacturing interests out of the New Hanover County market. Manu- facturers may be forced to seek sites on less expensive, larger land parcels outside the County. It is significant to note that within a land area comprising less than 2% of the twenty -county coastal area of North Carolina, New Hanover County has roughly 17% of the coastal area population. Viewed in these terms, the intense competition between manufacturing industries and other land use . - 57 - activities, and the resulting percentage declines in New Hanover County manufacturing employment can be better understood. C. Manufacturing Employment by Major Categories: 1962-1978 Table 20 and Figure 6 show the growth and decline of manufacturing 1/ industries in New Hanover County by major SIC categories from the early 1960's to 1978, the last year for which data were available. Overall, total employment in manufacturing has hovered in the range of 9,000 to 10,000 workers since the late 1960's. There has been a significant shift, however, in the dominant types of manufacturing activity. The most dramatic gains in employment have been in fabricated metals, with chemicals and machinery manufacturers following in distant second and third places, respectively. All three industries are relative newcomers to New Hanover County and the Southeastern Unites States in general. In the early 1960's, these "new -type" industries employed only a small fraction of their present day work force. Categories of manufacturing which decreased in importance during the 1963 to 1978 period included food, textiles, apparel and lumber and wood. These "traditional-type".(with the exception of food) industries suffered employment losses due to increased productivity through mechanization and improved technology. Declines were especially noticeable during the 1970's. Finally, industries which had fairly stable employment levels during the study period included printing, stone, clay and glass, and a variety of miscellaneous industries employing a relatively small number of workers. — According to Employment Security Commission figures, employment in these "locally -oriented" industries was relatively insensitive to fluctuations in the national business cycle. The SIC, or Standard Industrial Classification, is a nationally recognized system for classifying establishments to promote uniformity and comparability in the presentation of economic data. TABLE. 20 MANUFACTURING EMPLOYMENT IN NEW HANOVER COUNTY SELECTED YEARS, 1963-1978 NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES 1/ 14AJOR SIC CATEGORY 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1970 1963-l! 1 TOTAL MFG. 6,540 7,570 9,380 10,160 9,710 9,8R0 15.7 FOOD 690 710 780 970 550 670 2.9 TEXTILES 1,590 1,530 1,260 1,360 1,530 1,320 -3.7 APPAREL 19510 1,800 1,770 1,590 760 920 19.2 LUMBER & 14000 860 1,020 960 800 620 590 18.6 PRINTING 220 240 270 310 290 280 9.1 CHEMICALS 550 720 1,040 1,110 1,480 1,350 30.9 STONE, CLAY & GLASS 130 240 300 280 260 260 84.6 FABRICATED METALS 820 1,020 1,990 2,890 3,310 3,450 24.4 MACHINERY 50 120 650. 600 720 810 140.0 TRANSP. EQUIP. 70 110 260 290 100 110 57.1 OTiIER MFG. 2/ 60 60 100 60 90 120 0.0 1/ Standard Industrial classification. 2 / Includes furniture, paper, petroleum, primary metals & instruments SOURCE: Employment Security Commission 23.9 9.9 -17.6 -1.7 -5.9 12.5 44.4 25.0 95.1 441.7 136.4 '6.7 % CIIANGE 1969-1972 1972-1975 1975-1978 _1963-1978 9.3 -4.4 1.R 51.1 24.4 -43.3 21.8 •-2.9 7.9 12..5 -13.7 -16.5 -10.2 -52.2 21.1 -39.1 -16.7 -22.5 -4.8 -31.4 14.8 -6.5 -3.4 27.3 6.7 33.3 -8.8 145.5 -6.7 -7.1 9.0 100.0 45.2 14.5 4.2 320.7 -23.1 44.0 12.5 1,520.0 11.5 -65.5 10.0 57.1 -40.0 - 50.0 33.3 ___ 100.0 - - 390C 360C 330C 300C 270C 240C WORK 210C FORCE I80( 150( 120( 901 60( 30( 22 14 7 - 59 FIGURE 6 MANUFACTURING EMPLOYMENT NEW HANOVER COUNTY 1962 -1978 FABRICATED METALS CHEMICALS TEXTILES APPAREL MACHINERY FOOD LUMBER & WOOD PRINTING STONE, CLAY 8 GLASS OTHER MANUFACTURING TRANSPORTATION YEAR SOURCE N. C. SECURITY COMMISSION 9 WILMINGTON- NEW HANOVER PLANNING DEPT. In terms of preparing a Future Land Use Plan, the significance of these figures can best be understood when viewed in conjunction with the average site acreage requirements for each industry. Table 21 presents a breakdown of acreage requirements for several major SIC industrial categories, as they occur in New Hanover County. Recall that the two largest growth industries in New Hanover County during the last two decades have been fabricated metals and chemicals (new - type industries). According to Table 21, these industries require average site sizes of 57 and 103 acres, respectively. In designing the future land use plan, it would follow that most new industrial.lands should be set aside in amounts no less than these required acreages. In addition to serving the identified.fast growing industries, these minimum acreage land tracts will be of sufficient size to accommodate potential industrial park development in the City and County. - 61 - TABLE 21 ACREAGE AND EMPLOYEE INVENTORY OF MANUFACTURING NEW HANOVER COUNTY Averagel/ Acreaqe Average # Employees Report- ing.... Units Total' Acres Total Employees... Employees Per Acre Food and Kindred Products 1.8 56.1 11 19.8 617 31.2 Textile Mill Products 98.0 227.2 4 392.0 909 2.3 Apparel & Other Textile Products 4.3 221.0 6 _25.8 1,326 51.4 Lumber & Wood Products 11.6 30.2 21 243.6 635 2.6 Printing & Publishing 1.0 32.3 13 13.0 420 32.3 Chemicals & 2/ Allied Products. 102.9 218.6 17 1,749.3 3,716 2.1 Stone, Clay & Glass Products 522.8 31.1 8 4,182.4 249 0.06 Fabricated Metal Products 56.8 229.8 9 511.2 2,068 4.0 Machinery, Except Electric 8.5 222.2 9 76.5 2,000 26.1 Electrical Equip & Supplies 29.8 187.5 2 59.6 375 6.3 TOTALS - - 100 7,273.2 12,315 1.7 l/ Data collected from tax records, 1975 (all other data from County Business Patterns, 1977). 2/ Only that land used in production by Hercules is figured in average -- not total holdings of land by Hercules. =AAE D. Non -Manufacturing Employment by Major Categories: 1962-1978 Figure 7 and Table 22 present the growth in employment of each major non - manufacturing industry in New Hanover County during the 1960's and 1970's. In marked contrast with manufacturing industries, the growth of non -manufactur- ing employment in the County has been notably consistent. With the exception of the highly volatile construction industry, every non -manufacturing category exhibited an overall trend toward steady growth during the 1960's and 1970's. In addition, each industry maintained its ranking with respect to other non- industrial employers. Thus, in 1978 as in 1963, trade, government and services dominated, employ- ment in the non -manufacturing industries. The consistency and magnitude of the growth in these categories reaffirms the strengths of Wilmington and New Hanover County as the center of commerce and government in Southeastern North Carolina. Unlike the frequent and unpredictable oscillations witnessed in manufacturing industries during the study period, the growth trends established for the non -manufacturing sector are clear. The prospect for continued growth in these industries during the 1980's is excellent. The Future Land'Use Plan must therefore carefully evaluate the acreage and location requirements of the service -oriented industries and set aside appropriate land acres for their future use. 10400 9600 8800 8000 7200 6400 560C WORK FORCE 480C 400C 320C 240C 160C 80C FIGURE 7 n mommommommommmmmm lm oommoommommommomm Eammmmmmommamm mmmmmp,Apzwmmmmm milpirdomop'- mmmmmm=m�� B!1=26 R�m FREE TRADE GOVERNMENT rn w SERVICE TRANSPORTATION, COMMUNICATION, UTILITIES CONSTRUCTION FINANCE, INSURANCE, REAL ESTATE OTHER NON -MANUFACTURING 1962 63 64 65 66 6T 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 76 YEAR NONMANUFACTURING EMPLOYMENT SOURCE: N.G. EMPLOYMENT SECURITY COMMISSION • . MILMINGTON- NEw HANOVER PLANNING DEPT. NEW HANOVER COUNTY 1962-1978 TABLE 22 NON -MANUFACTURING EMPLOYMENT IN NEW HANOVER COUNTY SELECTED YEARS 1963-1978 WORK FORCE % OF TOTAL INDUSTRY WORK FORCE 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1/ Total Industry 22,220 26,000 30,600 34,330 36,570 419780 100 100 100 100 100 100 Total Non- 15,680 18,430 21,220 24,170 26,860 31,900 70.6 70.9 69.3 70..4 73.4 76.3 Manufacturing Construction 1,540 1,880 2,180 2,280 1,720 2,130 6.9 7.2 7.1 6.6 4.7 5.1 Transportation, 2,050 2,440 2,800 3,200 3,340 3,640 9.2 -9.4 9.2 9.3 9.1 8.7 Communication, and Utilities Trade 5,150 5,640 6,680 8,090 8,950 10,240 23.2 21.7 21.8 23.6 24.5 24.5 Finance, Real Estate 1,010 1,030 1,190 1,510 1,460 1,640 4.6 4.0 3.9 4.4 4.0 3.9 Service 2,800 3,500 3,890 3,390 4,520 5,970 12.6 13.4 12.7 11.5 12.3 14.3 Government 3,090 3,890 4,380 5,010 6,760 8,110 13.9 15.0 14.3 14.6 18.5 19.4 2/ Other Non- 40 50 100 150 110 170 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 Manufacturing 1/ Includes both manufacturing and non -manufacturing work force. Includes Agricultural Services, Forestry, Fisheries and Mining SOURCE: North Carolina Employment Security Commission and Wilmington -New Hanover Planning Department -65- I`i. Non -Residential Land Use Needs ;1980M-1990 A. Introduction Paramount to the development of the Future Land Use Plan are the anticipated land area needs of local manufacturing, service, and trade industries. As stated earlier, industrial (i.e., non-residential) land use needs are typically calculated using local employment projections and ratios of workers per unit of land area for each industry type. To calcu- late projections and employee/land ratios, it is necessary to examine the past and present industrial mix of New Hanover County. For this reason, local employment information available for the period from 1962 to 1978 was examined. Table 23 presents'the employment figures for each of those years. For the purpose of preparing land use projections, each industry type was assigned to one of five major non-residential land use categories: (1) office and and institutional, (2) commercial, (3) transportation; communica- tion, and utilities, (4) extensive manufacturing industry, and (5)'intensive manufacturing industry. The figures were then aggregated for each year, with the resulting employment totals plotted in Figure 8. Figure 8 reveals a number of dominant trends in the economy of New Hanover County. First, the graph shows that, with the exception of intensive industry, employment during the 1962-1978 period increased in every major land use category. Second, during this seventeen-year period, these employ- ment increases were fairly consistent. Third, the graph indicates that em- ployment in the office and institutional and commercial categories has grown more rapidly than in any other industrial category. This trend was especially pronounced during the period after 1972. The overall direction of the local economy seems to be increasing toward service -oriented industries. TABLE 23 WORK FORCE BY LAND USE CATEGORIES - 1962-1969 NEW HANOVER COUNTY INilUS1'RY TYPE Office and Institutional 6,800 6,900 7.280 8,030 8,420 8,630 9.340 9.460 F.I.R.E. 1.010 1.010 1,050 1,050 1,030 1,040 1.140 1,190 Service 2,740 2,800 3.050 3,290 3.500 3,560 3,750 3,890 Government 3,050 3.090 3,180 3.690 3,890 4.030 4.450 4,380 fonwer'cial 6,150 6,690 7,000 7,230 7.520 7,710 7.990 8,860 Trade 4,990 5,150 5,460 5.590 5.640 5,870 6.110 6,680 construction 1.160 1,540 1.540 1,640 1.880 1,840 1,880 2.180 Transportation. Coununicatiun. arrd Utilities 1,920 2,050 2,110 2.270 2.440 2,710 2.810 2.800 Extensive Manufacturing 3,780 3.940 3,860 4,180 4,530 4.440 4,450 5,550 Textiles 1,630 1,580 1.470 1,480 1,530 1,230 1.170 1,260 Lumber and wood 840 860 860 910 1.020 1.020 990 960 Chemicals 510 550 600 700 720 880 1,010 1,040 Stone, clay, and glass 110 130 130 250 240 270 300 300 Fabricated metals 640 820 BOO 840 1,020 1.040 .980 1.990 Intensive nanufacturing 2,620 2,600 2,660 2.760 3.040 3,440 3,900 3,830 food 710 690 700 670 710 760 720 780 Api,arel 1,530 1,510 1,540 1,660 1,800 1.770 1,800 1,770 Printing 230 220 230 240 240 250 260 270 Machinery 50 50 50 50 120 440 840 650 Trans. eyuil-Mlet 40 70 80 80 110 160 210 260 Other manufacturing 60 60 60 60 60 60 70 100 Total Manufacturing Industry 6,400 6,540 6.520 6,940 7,570 7,880 8.350 9,380 lotal, All Industries) 21,270 22,180 22.910 24,470 25.950 26,930 28.490 30,500 Ij FIGURE DOES NOT INCLUDE THE LESS THAN 200 PERSONS EMPLOYED IN AGRICULTURAL SERVICES; FORESTRY; FISHERIES; AND MINING. Source of Data: North Carolina Employment Security Commission. TABLE 23 (CONTINUED) WORK FORCE BY LAND USE CATEGORIES 1970-1978 NEW HANOVER COUNTY INDUSTRY TYPE Office and institutional 10,050 10,200 10,450 11,140 12,600 12,740 .13,410 13,690 15.720 F.I.R.E. 1,220 1,270 1,510 1,510 1.520 1,460 1.490 1.540 1,640 Service 4,190 4,050 3,930 4,350 4,780 4,520 4,990 6,040 5,970 Government 4,640 4,880 5,010 5,290 6,300 6,760 6,930 7,110 8.110 commercial 9,470 9.120 10,370 11,910 11,860 10.670 10,990 11,870 12,370 Trade 7.360 7.140 8,090 9,020 9,580 8.950 9,180 9,770 10,240 Construction 2,110 1,980 2,280 2.890 2.280 1,720 .1.810 '2,100 2.130 Transportation. Coimiunication, and Utilities 2,900 2,950 3,200 3,650 3,660 3,340 3,480 3,590 3,640 Extensive Manufacturing 5,870 5,400 6.440 6,750 6,770 7,200 7,360 7,020 6,970 Textiles 1.440 1.280 1,360 1.170 1,060 1,530 1.380 1,200 1,320 Lumber and wood 910 720 800 760 760 620 590 560 590 Chemicals 960 770 1.110 1,390 1,380 1,480 1,340 1,310 1.350 Stone, clay, and glass 300 280 280 290 290 260 250 250 260 Fabricated metals 2,260 2.350 2.890 3,120 3,280 3,310 3,800 3.700 3.450 Intensive manufacturing 3,440 3,210 3,720 3,950 3,800 2,510 2,880 2,870 2,910 Food 780 830 970 940 940 550 580 640 670 Apparel 1,440 11280 1,590 1,780 1,570 760 1,090 1,000 920 Printing 280 280 310 320 300 290 270 270 280 Machinery 550 450 500 610 640 720 750 780 810 11-ans. equipment 330 310 290 240 280 100 120 80 110 Other manufacturing 60 60 60 60 70 90 70 100 120 Total Manufacturing industry 9,310 8,610 10,160 10.100 9,970 9,710 10.240 9,890 9,880 Total, All Industries) 31,730 30,880 34,180 36,800 38,090 36,460 38,120 39.040 41,610 IL FIGURE DOES NOT INCLUDE THE LESS THAN 200 PERSONS EMPLOYED IN AGRICULTURAL SERVICES; FORESTRY; FISHERIES; AND MINING. Source of Data: North Carolina Employment Security Commission. 16500- 15000- 13500- 12000- 10500- WORK 9000- FORCE 7500- 6000- 4500- 3000- 1500- WORK FORCE BY LAND USE CATEGORY NEW HANOVER COUNTY 1962 - 1978 FIGURE 8 •• .• 00OF- ' 000, •� ■�� f_ mmm aoo ftw• wavolmon sm twoa /Jim of as Jim in as nil ■■ ■ an OFFICE a INSTITUTIONAL 1962 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 YEAR SOURCE;, N.C. SECURITY COMMISSION a WILMINGTON_ NEW HANOVER PLANNING DEPT, COMMERCIAL TOTAL MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY rn c EXTENSIVE INDUSTRY TRANSPORTATION, COMMUNICATION, UTILITIES INTENSIVE INDUSTRY -69- When these trends in the industrial mix of New Hanover County are pro- jected into the decade of the 1980's, strong implications for the future development of the county become apparent. Table 24 shows the estimated employment levels for each of the major land use categories in 1980, and projected employment levels for 1985, 1990, and the year 2000. Table 25 translates projected employment levels of Table 24 into estimates of future land use needs by major non-residential categories. The prospects for growth and the future land use needs of each industrial category follow. B. Office and Institutional This land use category includes activities such as schools, churches, museums, art galleries, physicians' offices, architectural and engineering firms and law offices. From 1962 to 1978, office and institutional employ- ment in New Hanover County exhibited steady growth, having never failed to increase its ranks in any given year during the priod. Employment in this category demonstrated especially strong growth during the 1970's, reflecting the incrasing role of New Hanover County as a service, educational, medical, and government center for Southeastern North Carolina. In 1980, an estimated 15,350 persons were employed in offices and institutions occupying over 1500 acres of land. At 10.07 employees per acre, the office and institutional land use category has the highest ratio of employees per unit area of any non-residential land use category. (See Table 25.) With employment in this category projected.at over 20,000 by the year 1990, approximately 517 more acres of land will be necessary to accommodate the new offices and institutions. By the end of the 19801s, these uses will occupy an estimated 2040 acres in the Planning Area or close to 20% of all non -residentially developed lands. TABLE PROJECTED WORK tORCE BY LAND USE CATEGORY 1/ THROUGH THE YEAR 20If0 NEW HANOVER COUNTY INDUSTRY TYPE i Office and Institutional 15,350 16.360 17,880 20,410 25,470 .981 F.I.R.E. 1,710 1,790 1.020 2,140 2,570 .952 Service 5,673 6,000 6.500 7,320 8.970 .964 Government 7,960 8.560 9,450 10,940 13.920 .973 Commercial 13,250 14,040 15,240 17.220 21,200 .964 Trade 10,850 11,550 12,610 14,360 17.870 .976 Construction 2.400 2.500 2,640 2,870 3,340 .610 Transportation. Communication and Utilities 4,060 4,290 4,630 5.200 6.350 .965 Extensive Manufacturing 8,000 8,500 9,240 10,480 12.960 .965 Textiles 1,180 1.150 1,100 1.010 840 -.532 Lumber and wood 580 530 460 340 110 -.771 Chemicals 1,600 1,730 1.910 2,210 2.810 .926 Stone, clay. and glass 320 340 360 390 470 .601 Fabricated metals 4,390 4,850 6.520 6,650 6,910 .964 Intensive manufacturing 3,380 3,420 3,470 3,570 3,760 .190 Food 740 740 740 740 740 .002 Apparel 1,030 950 820 600 180 -.649 Printing 310 320 330 350 400 .765 Machinery 970 11080 1,230 1,480 11980 .853 Trans. equipment 220 230 250 270 320 .266 Other manufacturing 130 140 160 190 250 .626 Total Manufacturing Industry 11,380 11.920 12.710 14,050 16.720 ----- Total, All Industries 44,140 46.610 50,460 56,880 69,740 ----- 1 EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS FOR WORK FORCE SUBCATEGORIES ARE NOT ADDITIVE TO TOTAL EMPLOYMENT FOR EACH MAJOR LAND .USE CATEGORY DUE TO LESS RELIABILITY IN PROJECTING INDIVIDUAL INDUSTRY EMPLOYMENT LEVELS. 21 FIGURE DOES NOT INCLUDE THE LESS THAN 200 PERSONS PROJECTED FOR EMPLOYMENT IN AGRICULTURAL SERVICES; FORESTRY; FISHERIES; AND MINING. Source: Wilmington -New Hanover Planning Department OFFICE AND INSTITUTIONAL (OBI) C0144ERC IAL TRANSPORTATION, COMMUNI- CATION AND UTILITIES (TCU) MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES EXTENSIVE INTENSIVE TOTALS TABLE 25 NON-RESIDENTIAL LAND USE NEEDS 1980-1990 NEW HANOVER COUNTY 1990 ADDITIONAL ACRES TOTAL 1980 1980 1980 1990 PROJECTED ACREAGE REQUIRED FOR ADDITIONAL ESTIMATED ACREAGE EMPLOYEES PROJECTED ACREAGE IN NEEDED MARKET ACREAGE NEEDED EMPLOYMENTa IN USE PER ACRE EMPLOYMENT USE 1980-1990 FLEXIBILITY 1980-1990 15.350 1,523 10.07 20,410 2,040 517 259 776 13.250 1.413 9.38 17,220 1,836 423 212 635 4,060 508b 7.99 5,220 651b 143 72 215 11,380 4,681 --- - 14,050 5.835 1,154 577 1,731 8,000 3,526 2.27 10.480 4,617 1,091 545 1,636 3.360 1,155 2.93 3,570 1,218 63 32 95 44,040d 8,125 ----- 56,880d 10,362 2,237 1,120 3,357 aEMPLOYMENT ESTIMATES DERIVED FROM ANALYSIS AND PROJECTION OF 1962-1978 TRENDS (LINEAR REGRESSION) bTO ACHIEVE MORE ACCURATE PROJECTIONS OF FUTURE LAND USE NEEDS, TCU ACREAGE DOES NOT INCLUDE N. H. COUNTY AIRPORT PROPERTIES (1,346 ACRES) AND TWO SQUARE MILES OF THE C.P. AND L. COOLING , PONDS (1,280 ACRES) CINTENSIVE INDUSTRY ACREAGE INCLUDES WHOLESALE, WAREHOUSING AND DISTRIBUTION LAND USES dTOTAL INDUSTRY EtPLOYMENT DOES NOT INCLUDE AN ESTIMATED 6.200 NON-AGRICULTURAL SELF EMPLOYED WORKERS, UNPAID FAMILY WORKERS, AND DOMESTIC WORKERS IN PRIVATE HOUSEHOLDS (1980); PROJECTED TO INCREASE TO 7,000 BY 1990. OFFICE AND INSTITUTIONAL (0 & 1) COMMURCIAL TRANSPORTATION, COMMUNICATION AND UTILITIES (TCU) MANUFACTURING; INDUSTRIES EXTENSIVE INTENSIVE TOTALS TABLE M. PROJECTED GROWTH OF WORK FORCE AND NON-RESIDENTIAL LAND IN USE NEW HANOVER COUNTY 1900-1990 f. % OF INDUSTRYL(i't.'�1T % INCREASE % OF ALL % INCREASE BY PLACE OF W RK IN WORK FORCE NON-RESIDENTIAL LAND IN US. 1980 1990 1980-1990 LAND IN USE 1980-1990 1980 1990 34.9 35.9 33.0 16.7 19.7 33.9 30.1 30.3 30.0 17.4 17.7 29.9 9.2 9.1 28.1 6.3 6.3 28.1 25.8 24.7 �23.5 57.6 56.3 24.7 18.2 18.4 31.0 43.4 44.6 30.9 7.7 6.3 5.6 14.2 11.8 5.5 100.0 100.0 29.2 100.0 100.0 27.5 Source: Wilmington -New Hanover Planning Department 1 v N • - 73 - Several factors help explain the anticipated growth of office and institutional activities during the 1980's. First, there is little doubt that during the coming decade New Hanover County will continue to strengthen its role as the government, service, financial and education center of Southeastern North Carolina. In addition to the office growth directly associated with the expansion of the State Ports, many new manufacturing industries with sites located within the region but outside the County, will prefer to have their administrative offices located in the urban hub of New Hanover County. The tendency of business and financial institutions to agglomerate in urban centers is as old as the development of cities. In contrast to the exodus of industrial and commercial activities to the suburbs during the 1960's and 1970's, many offices and institutions will prefer to be in close proximity to their working counterparts. As large commercial users have vacated downtown Wilmington in recent years, a sizeable number of finance, real estate, insurance, development and law offices have moved into the central business district. This trend is expected to continue, as Federal and state government policies encourage the placement of government agencies in downtown areas. Existing medical facilities, now centered in the City of Wilmington, may be expected to expand their land area coverage as the health care needs of the region's growing population demand. The national trend toward a much larger elderly population will continue into the 1980's, with increasing de- mands for homes for the elderly, nursing homes, geriatric centers, and other such institutions. -74- Demands for child day care facilities will grow during the 1980's as young mothers continue to enter the labor force in large numbers. Finally, while government employment may not witness the kind of growth during the '80's that occurred during the '70's, there will undoubtedly be continued demands for more government office space in the years ahead. All of these factors contribute to the need for an additional 517.acres of office and institutional acreage. C. Commercial For the purposes of estimating future land use needs, the four.basic types of commercial activities, Regional, Highway, Community, and Neighbor- hood Commercial, were combined into one commerc-M--category. This was necessary due to the aggregated form of the employment information available. As illustrated in Figure 8, employment in commercial activities exhibited steady increases during the 1960's. In the 1970's, however, considerable fluctuations in commercial employment was evident. As might be expected, employment in the trade sector closely followed upturns and downturns in the national business cycle. Commercial employment reached a peak in 1973, then fell substantially during the 1974-75 recession, and showed signs of steady recovery through 1978. In 1980, commercial activities in New Hanover County provided jobs for an estimated 13,250 persons, second only to the office and institutional category. Occupying slightly over 1400 acres of land in the Planning Area, commercial activities employed 9.4 persons per acre in 1980. With 17,220 total jobs projected for the commercial category by 1990, an additional 423 acres of land will be necessary to accommodate new commercial development. • - 75 - This increase in acreage will allow the commercial land use category to slightly increase its share of all non -residentially developed land, from 17.4% in 1980 to 17.7% by 1990. In contrast to the uncertainty of the future siting of manufacturing activities, the majority of all commercial activities serving Southeastern North Carolina will continue to locate in New Hanover County. While manu- facturing industries may choose sites on less expensive, less heavily populated areas in surrounding counties, most spin-off commercial activities will place a premium on locating within the immediate market area of the Wilmington urban core. As in the case of offices and institutions, com- mercial activities benefit from "economies of agglomeration," preferring to locate within close proximity of one another. These tendencies toward clusters or "nodes" of commercial activity should become even more pronounced during the.1980's. The rising price of gasoline, reductions in the frequency of shopping trips, and increased awareness of "time -spent -shopping" will add to the dominance of one -stop shopping facilities. Clustered commercial centers, with a variety of re- tail establishments, will fare better than single -purpose retailers strung out along City and County streets. Cutbacks in monies for the construction of new thoroughfares will place the use and value of existing streets at a premium. The undesirable effects of traffic congestion induced by commercial strip development along the area's major thoroughfares will become more ap- parent to the motoring public. Finally, small-scale neighborhood retail centers within walking distance of residential areas will come into heavier demand. All of these factors point toward the development of a land use plan which seeks to preserve areas for commercial use in strategic clusters -76- for major shopping needs and in very compact locations for neighborhood retail needs. D. Transportation, Communication, and Utilities This land use category includes activities employing rail, air, water, transit and motor freight workers, communications workers, and electric, gas, and sanitary service workers. To provide for meaningful future land use projections, this analysis does not include acreages devoted to streets and railroad right of ways. Also not included in the future needs assessment are the extensive land areas used for New Hanover County Airport operations (1346 acres) and for. -the cooling pond of the Carolina Power and Light Company electric generating plant (2 square miles or 1280 acres). The New Hanover County Airport management has indicated that no further expansion of the airport acreage is anticipated during the 1980's. The CP&L cooling ponds were excluded primarily because of their use in recreation and other non- TCU activities. Table 23 shows that employment in transportation, communication, and utilities (TCU) industries has shown gradual but steady increases since 1962. Only during the recession of 1974-75 did the TCU work force in New Hanover County decline slightly. TCU employment has since resuled a slow but steady growth pattern. In 1980, TCU industries provided an estimated 4,060 jobs on approximately 508 acres of land (excluding airport property and CP&L ponds) for an overall density of roughly 8 employees per acre. Based upon current and past trends, TCU industries are projected to employ 5,200 persons in 1990. At current employment densities, this translates to a need for 143 additional acres of - 77 - TO land during the 1980's. This increase is expected to maintain TCU acreage at roughly 6.3% of all non -residentially developed lands during the 1980's. The additional land area necessary to meet projected growth in TO industries during the 1980's may be closely tied to changes in the develop- ment density of the County. As New Hanover County becomes more densely populated, the.need for centralized urban facilities and services increases greatly. The cost-effectiveness of providing those urban services also improves. Perhaps the most well known and controversial example of this relationship in New Hanover County has been the proposed county -wide water and/or sewer system. If such a system were to be -Installed, additional acreages for water and sewage treatment facilities, pumping stations, possible well sites, water towers, etc. would be necessary. For many developed areas of the County not served by the proposed centralized system community level water and/or sewage systems will be used. In addition to water and sewer facilities, electric, natural gas, telephone, and steam generating utilities will increase their presence as the growing County population demands. Steam -generating facilities are mentioned in particular, as the County seeks a long-term solution to its solid waste disposal problem. The possibility exists that from one to as many as half a dozen steam -generating solid waste incinerators -could be in- stalled in New Hanover County during the 1980's. Associated with the solid waste disposal solution might be two or more transit stations, and one or more community recycling centers. Thus, the projected demand for 143 additional acres of TO land by 1990 does not appear to be excessive. E. Intensive and Extensive Manufacturing The manufacturing industries category is divided into two functional sub -categories, intensive and extensive, for the purpose of future land use projections.' Intensive industries are generally characterized as light in- dustries with smaller physical plants, lower land requirements, and higher worker to land ratios. Extensive industries are typically heavier in- dustries with large physical plants, high land requirements, and lower worker to land ratios. Intensive Industry Intensive Industry includes food, apparel, printing, machinery, trans- portation equipment, and other miscellaneous manufacturing. A good example of an intensive industry located in New Hanover County is Block Shirt Company., The vast majority of the employment in intensive industries is "tradi- tional" or "locally oriented," and is characterized by low skills and wages. Improvements in technology and increased mechanization in recent years have increased productivity at the expense of workers' jobs. Of all land use categories studied, those falling under the intensive industry heading exhibited the most erratic employment pattern over the 1962-1978 period. The category as a_whole demonstrated a sensitivity to fluctuations in the national business cycle; employment losses were suffered during the national economic "troughs" of 1970 and 1975. During the reces- sion of 1975, for example, employment in intensive industries fell abruptly, with nearly 1300 jobs lost in that year. The apparel industry alone accounted for over 800 of the jobless. As a result of these losses, intensive manu- facturing employment dropped to only 2,510, or 110 fewer workers than in 1962. Since1975, intensive industries have employed the least number of per- sons of any land use category. (See Table 23 and Figure 8, pages 66 and 68). - 79 - Based upon these employment patterns and trends, the prognosis for intensive industrial growth during the 1980's is uncertain. With the exception of the machinery industry, all intensive manufacturers are either just maintaining or losing their employment totals. A trend analysis per- formed on the 1962-1978 period shows a weak tendency toward modest increases in intensive industrial employment during the coming decade. A similar analysis performed on only the period since 1970, however, yields a declining employ- ment trend. Even with the more optimistic long term trend, employment in intensive industries would reach only 3,570 by 1990, up from 2,910 in 1978. If the current ratio of 2.93 employees per acre remains constant through the 1980's., an additional 63 acres of land will be needed for intensive industries by 1990. While it is entirely possible that the number of employees per acre may continue to decrease over the next -decade, the overall acreage estimate is thought to be generous enough to account for such variations. This projection also assumes that some of the new intensive manufacturing in- dustries will move into existing sites formerly occupied by other industries. Incentive for such location would include existing appropriate zoning, estab- lished land use configurations and transportation facilities, and the possible reuse of existing structures. Finally, the recent efforts of New Hanover County to investigate the development of an industrial park adjacent to the County Airport should be noted. Consultants for the County preparing a feasibility study for the airport have noted that intensive type (light) industries are well suited for location in such a facility. Manufacturing industries identified by the consultants as being the best prospects include non -electrical machinery, electric and electronic equipment and some transportation and instrumentation -80- industries. The study indicates, however, that New Hanover County must com- pete to attract such industries. Thus, the optimistic but tempered prognosis offered by the consultants reaffirms the modest growth picture drawn for intensive industries in New Hanover County during the 1980's. Extensi0e'Industry Extensive industries include textiles, lumber and wood, chemicals, stone, clay, and glass, and fabricated metals. Hercules is a local example of an extensive industry. . In contrast.to intensive industrial employment, jobs provided by ex- tensive industries have shown a steady, stepped -growth pattern over the 1962- 1978 period. The most notable increases have been in the chemical and fabri- cated metals industries. Unlike most other industrial categories, however, extensive industries as a whole showed none of the negative effects of the 1974 recession. Employment actually increased by 430 workers from 1974 to 1975. (See Table 23.) The prognosis for the growth of extensive industry in New Hanover County has two conflicting parts. On one hand, past employment trends would seem to indicate that the prospects for future increases in such manufacturing are good. If such trends are accepted at face value, a total of 10,480 ex- tensive industrial workers would be employed in 1990, up from an estimated 8,000 in 1980. If the current worker to land ratio of 2.27 employees per acre were to remain constant, a total 4,617 acres of land would be in use for extensive industry in 1990. This would bring an additional 1,091 acres of land into use over the ten year period, or an average of 106 acres per year. Thus, if current trends were to continue, extensive industry would in- crease its share of all non -residentially developed lands to 44.6% by 1990. (See Table 26.) 0 - 81 - In conflict with the consistent growth pattern outlined above, however, are other factors indicating that the total land in use for extensive in- dustries in 1990 could be considerably less. First, the land use projections discussed above were made without regard to the actual availability of develop- able land in New Hanover County for extensive industries. As noted in an earlier section, some industries are no longer able to compete with commer- cial and service industry bids for the remaining suitable lands in the County. Much of the County is characterized by poorly drained sites with seasonally high water tables. While smaller land users can find pockets of soils suit- able for development, major land users may have a more difficult task finding large suitable areas in New Hanover County's sensitive coastal environment. The sprawling and scattered residential development pattern of the County also makes the encroachment of existing residential uses into prospective industrial sites more likely. The County's recent difficult search for a landfill site away from residential land uses confirms this situation. Ex- tensive industries such as the proposed oil refinery in Brunswick County.and the aluminum smelting plant in Columbus County are a testament to this trend; these industries must look outside New Hanover County to find the inexpensive, abundant acreages necessary for their operations. Extensive industries will continue to capitalize on the excellent transportation facilities offered by the State Port of Wilmington, without actually locating their plants in New Hanover County. Although it is difficult to judge long term trends based upon short term analyses, extensive industry employment since 1976 has shown signs of leveling off. The two largest growth industries, fabricated metals and chemicals, have not demonstrated.the kind of expansion they experienced in the late 1960's and early 1970's. In summary, while past trends indicate -82- ' that an additional 1,091 acres would be needed for manufacturing growth during the 1980's, several constraining factors could lessen this amount. These factors include the availability of large suitable land tracts, and competition for the remaining undeveloped sites from non -manufacturing land users. It is expected that by the time the next CAMA Land Use Plan Update is prepared in.1985, many of the questions regarding county -wide water and sewer,the BECO oil refinery, the Interstate 40 extension, and other major development issues will be answered. The answers should form a much clearer picture of the future development of New Hanover County, allowing the pro- jections set forth•in this report to be further refined. 0 Part Summary of Future Land Use - Needs ig80--1990 I. Detailed Land Use Needs Between 1980 and 1990, an additional eight square miles of land are expected to be developed in New Hanover County (5,198 acres, Table 27). This will increase the total developed area to over forty square miles -- roughly one -fifth of all the land in the Planning Area. Due to the sprawled nature of development in the County, however, a much larger area than that actually in use may be considered as part of the urbanized area. According to figures compiled by the State, New Hanover County is already one of the three most densely populated counties in North Carolina. Table 27 shows that residential uses will consume about three -fifths of all the land developed during the coming decade. If past trends continue, one -fifth of these newly developed lands will be for industrial purposes. New offices and institutions, commercial uses and transportation, communi- cation, and utilities will share responsibility for the remaining develop- ment. Table 28 shows that residential land uses account for nearly two-thirds of all currently developed lands in the Planning Area. This major fraction of the area's total is expected to change very little by 1990. Despite the continued growth of office and institutional, and commercial land uses, the percentage of the total comprised by these uses will change little, if at all. While manufacturing industries are shown as retaining their current proportion of the developed land, natural and man-made physical constraints may work to limit further major industrial development in the County. (See previous section on prospects for extensive industrial growth.) Nonetheless, these percentages provide a good basis for relative allocations of land uses in the Future Land Use Plan. I/ Department of Administration, Division of State Budget and Management, Profile: North Carolina Counties, 1977 p. 10. TABLE 27 SUMMARY OF FUTURE LAND USE NEEDS 1980-1990 l/ PLANNING AREA 1980 ACREAGE IN USE 1990 PROJECTED ACREAGE IN USE PERCENT INCREASE ACREAGE NEEDED 1980-1990 % OF TOTAL ADDED ACREAGE FOR MARKET FLEXIBILITY TOTAL ACREAGE NEEDED 1980-1990 Residential 13,883 16,844 21% 2,961 57% 1,481 4,432 Office & Institutional 1,523 2,040 34% 517 10% 259 776 Commercial 1,413 1,836 30% 423 8% 212 635 Transportation, Com- 2/ munication & Utilities 508 651 28% 143 3% 72 215 3/ Manufacturing Industries 4,681 5,835 25% 1,154 22% 577 1,731 TOTALS 22,008 27,206 24% 5,198 100% 2,599 7,797 l/ Includes City of Wilmington and Unincorporated New Hanover County north of Snow's Cut. 2/ TCU acreage does not include New Hanover County Airport properties (1,346 acres) and two square miles of CP&L Cooling Ponds (1,280 acres). 3 / Includes wholesale, warehousing and distribution land uses. SOURCE: Wilmington Planning Department, 1980