Land Use Plan Update-1986

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130
120
110
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POPULATION 90
IN
THOUSANDS 80
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YEAR

Technical Report No. 1
1986 Wilmington - New Hanover County Land Use Plan Update
POPULATION STUDY OF NEW HANOVER COUNTY
August, 1985
Prepared by the New Hanover County Planning Department
i The preparation of this document was financed, in part,
through a Coastal Areas Management Act grant provided by the
North Carolina Coastal Management Program, through Funds
provided by the Coastal Zone Management Act of 1972,-as amended,
which is administered by the Office of Ocean and Coastal Resource
Management, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Past Growth Trends
1) New Hanover experienced accelerating growth from 1950 to 1980. The average
annual growth rate increased from 1.3 percent for 1950-60 to 2.2 percent in
1970-80.
2) The 1980 Census indicates that the County's population increased from 82,996
in 1970 to 103,471 in 1980. The County population•in 1984, according to the
State was 110,139.
3) Since 1950, the County's average annual growth rate has been higher than the
State's and presently is growing at one and a half times the State's rate.
Consequently the County's share of the total state population is.growing.
4) In the 1970's the average annual growth rate of Region 110111increased close to
New Hanover County's 2.23 percent. Region 110111 average annual growth rate
increased to 2.12 percent up from 0.78 percent in the 19601s. The County's share
of Region 110" population has remained rather steady; it was 48.20 percent in 1970
and 48.69 percent in 1980. This is in contrast to the more pronounced increases
in the 1950's and 1960's•and is indicative of the accelerated growth experienced
during the 1970's by the other counties of the.Region.
Population Composition
1) Four major changes in the age structure of the County's population are
expected during the 1980's and 19901s.
A. The percentage of older adults (35 and older) in the population is
expected to increase significantly. Corresponding percentages for the
years 1970, 1980, 1990, and 2000 are 41, 41.7, 46.84 and 52.65 percent.
B. In the 1980's there will be a surge in the population of children aged 5
and under.
C. There will be a marked decline of the.teenage.population as a percentage
of the total.
D. The population over 65 years of age will continue to increase in the
.1980's and 19901s, however, the increase will be.less dramatic than the
19701s. In the 1970's the number of persons 65 and over increased by
49.9 percent. In the 19801s.it is expected to increase by 39.24 percent
and in the 1990's by 21.15 percent. (These estimates take into account
• migration changes.)
2) The County's average household size, which fell by approximately .75 persons
over the past two decades, is expected to further decline to levels of 2.51
persons in 1990 and 2.38 persons in 2000.
iRegion 110" consists of New Hanover County, Pender, Brunswick and Columbus
Counties.

2
Population Projections
1) New Hanover County is expected to grow by 17,428 residents during the 19801s,
with a projected total population of 120,899 in 1990. in I.ight of recent
increases in employment, this projection may be conservative.
2) Net in -migration will account for 65 to 70 percent of the County's growth
during the 1980's with the remaining growth being attributed to natural increase.
3.- Projected population growth for the 1980's represents an average annual rate
of 1.5.percent and for the 1990's of 1.3 percent.
Subarea Trends
1) New Hanover County's population majority shifted from the City of Wilmington
to.the unincorporated area between 1970 and 1980.
2) Revitalization efforts and major annexations during the 1980's should work to
reverse Wilmington's decline in population.
3) The beach municipalities experienced slight population Increases during the
'19701s. However, in the 1980's and 19901s, growth is expected to accelerate as
the. beach communities wiII continue to enjoy a building boom that began in the
early 19801s.
11. OVERALL
POPULATION TRENDS AND PROJECTIONS
A. TRENDS
County Growth Trends
An analysis of.past growth trends affords the opportunity to present
information that is descriptive and also supportive of the overall population
projection for the County in the year 2000.
The recent growth history for. New Hanover County is presented in Table 1 and
Figure 1. Since 1930, the County's population has not grown at a uniform rate.
The 1940-50 growth rate, for example, showed a large increase over the previous
decade due to the, County's. industrial expansion during World War II. The
large increase for 1970-80 is a result of industrial expansion during the late
1960's and early 19701s. This development activity caused -a reduction of
out -migration and increased in -migration, resulting in a larger annual growth
rate. This growth rate appears to have peaked in the 1970's with decreasing
growth rates projected for the 1980's and 1990's.
The significance of the County's population growth rate can be better
appreciated -when .it i.s discussed in terms of the number of years required for the
population to double at a given growth rate. At the annual 1.5 percent growth
rate of the 1960's the population of New Hanover County would double in 46 years.
At the annual 2.2 percent growth rate of the 1970's the population would double
in only 32 years. However at the annual 1.5 percent growth rate projected for
the 1980's it would take 46 years for the County's population to double.

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POPULATION 90IN
THOUSANDSA
i
40 r`: {
30
1930 1940 1950 1960 sm 1980 19'902000
YEAR
SOURCE: NEW HANOVER COUNTY PLANNING DEPARTMENT, U.S. BUREAU OF
THE CENSUS, N.C. OFFICE OF STATE MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET
:SEE SECTION ON POPULATION PROJECTIONS FOR FULL DISCUSSION OF THE FIGURES FOR 1990 AND 2000.

4
TABLE 1
New Hanover County Population Growth
Characteristics for Selected Years
County Population
1930 43,010
1940 47.935 .
1950 63,272
1960 71,742
1970 82,996 .
1980 103,471
1990 12098992
2000 137,3032
Absolute Increase
1930-40 4,925
1940-50 15,337`
1950-60 8,470
1960-70 11,254
1970-80 20,475
1980-90 17,4282
1990-00 16,4042
Average Annual Growth Rate3
1930-40 1.1%
1940-50 2.8p
1950-60 1.3%
1960-70 1.5%
1970-80 2.2%
1980-90 1.5/0
1990-00 1.3%2
Source: U.S. Bureau of Census; N.C. Office of State Management and
Budget and the New Hanover County Plannng Department.
2Estimates based on the projections of the N.C. Office of State Management
and Budget.
3Average annual geometric rates are derived.using the compound interest
formula:
Pn=Po (1+r)n
Where Po is the initial population, Pn is the populaton at the end of the,
period, n is the time period, and r is the average annual rate of change.

5
Comparisons to State and -Region 110" Trends
A comparison of population growth rates at the State, regional and local
levels is presented in Table 2. The average County annual growth rate was about
one and a half times as great asthatof the State.
The relationship of the growth rates of the County and Region "0"4 changed
dramatically during the 1970-80 period. For 1950-60 and 1960-70, the County's
growth rate was two and a half and two times greater, respectively, than that of
the region. During the 1970's , however, rapid population growth in other
counties of the Region caused the Region 110" average -annual growth rate to be
close to the County's. While New Hanover County grew at 2.23 percent per year,
the regional population increased.by 2.12 percent per year.
The changes.in the growth rates for the State, Region and County are further
reflected in the County's share of total population for the State and Region.
The County's share of population of the larger areas is shown in Table 3. As
expected from the analysis of the State and County annual growth rates, New
Hanover County's share of the State population is continuing to increase.
Similarly, the comparison of the Regional and County growth rates confirms the
change in the trend of the County's share of the Region's population. New
Hanover County's share of the Region's total population was 48.20 percent in 1970
and 48.69 percent in 1980. Although the County's population increased, its share
of the Region's population did not significantly increase because surrounding
counties were also experiencing rapid population increases.
4
Region 110" consists of New Hanover County, Pender, Brunswick and Columbus
Counties.

6
TABLE 2
Comparison of Population
Growth Rages
New Hanover County, Region ROn
and North Carolina
Population
"
1950 1960
1970
1980
New Hanover
County 63,272 71.0742
82,996
103,471
Region
110" 151,554 159,501
172,305
212,500
North
Carolina 4,061,929 4,556,155
5,082,059
5,881,766
Average Annual Growth Rate
50-60
60-70
70-80
New Hanover
County 1.27%
1.47%
2.23%
Region
non .051
0.78
2.12
North
Carolina 1.15
1.10
1.47
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census,
North Carolina
"Office of State
Budget and Management.
TABLE 3
New Hanover County Share of Total Population
1950 1960
1970
1980
North
Carolina 1.56% 1.57%
1.63%
1.76,10'
" Region
110" 41.70 45.00
48.20 48.69
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census,
North Carolina
Office_ of State
Budget and Management.

7
B.-. POPULATION PROJECTION METHODOLOGY
Projections
Overview
Projected,population figures for the years 1990 and 2000 must be determined
to provide a basis for estimating future land use needs and specifically the
needs of future residential development. The population projection is also
useful for a wide variety of other applications including estimates of future
revenues, public service needs, assessments and similar related purposes.
Projections prepared by the North Carolina State Department of
Administration Office of State Budget and Management (OSBM) will be used for the
purpose of this study for the following reasons: first, under the Coastal
Area Management Act's land use planning guidelines, it is recommended that local
governments use the OSBM Projection unless sufficient justification can be found.
to select another.
Second, the OSBM projection method is well equipped to handle migrational
effects, which have been a major factor in the past growth of the County, and are
expected to play a continued role in the future expansion of area population.
The OSBM population projection of 120,899 for 1990 represents a growth of 17,428
during the 19801s. Of this growth, 69 percent can be attributed to people.moving
into the area from outside the County. This is a continuation of the.past trends
of in -migration and is the primary source of the County's growth.
Presently OSBM population estimates appear to be fairly accurate. If it is
assumed that the projected population increase of 17,428 persons for the 1980-90
decade will be evenly distributed during the ten year period, then yearly, for
this period, the County can expect to have a population increase of 1,743
persons. Under this assumption the County's population could be expected to have
grown by 6,972 persons by 1984 and to have brought the County's total population
to 110,444 persons. In July 1984, OSBM estimated -the County's population to be
110,139 which represents an increase of 6,668 persons and is in keeping with the
previously cited projections.
. It is important to note that some authorities view OSBM figures to be overly
conservative and anticipate population increases substantially higher than those
projected by OSBM, particularly, over the short term. The reason for this -is
that migration rates are heavily influenced by economic conditions and OSBM
figures may not take into -account recent economic changes in New Hanover County.
Certain economic indicators for the Wilmington --New Hanover area have shown that
in the last several years the local economy has been moving upward at a rapid
pace. This phenomenon usually accompanies a population surge because it usually
fosters greater in -migration.
Fluctuations caused by seasonal population are not considered significant
because (1) summer visitors tend primarily to stay in the incorporated Beach towns,
(2) occupancy rates in the City's major motels are relatively stable due to year
round business travel, and (3) the seasonal population fluctuation is insignificant
compared to the permanent population.

8
Growth
Population indicators,.as shown in Table 4, for North Carolina and New
Hanover County point to continuing growth through the end of .the century. As
alreay mentioned, traditionally, the County has grown at a faster pace than the
State. From 1970 to 1980 the County's population increased by 24.7 percent
compared to the Sta te's increase of 15.7 percent. However this gap is expected
to narrow as New Hanover County's projected proportional increase for the 1980's
is 16.84 percent while the State's is 11.06 percent. Comparable figures for the
19901s aree 11.95 percent for the County and 8.5 percent for the State.
These figures also indicate that the growth rate appears to have peaked
during the last decade and will probably decline during the next twenty years.
Overall these trends appear to be reflected in the population growth among both
whites and nonwhites of both sexes.

1970
1980
19905
20005
TOTAL POPULATION
5,084,411
5,881,766
6,532,560
7,087,156
Total White
3,905,371
4,457,507
4,890,117
5,297,623
White Mate
1,922,851
2,176,628
2,391,567
2,584,806
White Female
1,982,520
2,280,879
2,498,550
2,712,817
Total Nonwhite
1,179,040
1,424,259
1,642,443
1,789,533
Nonwhite Male
566,667
678,757
775,850
- 823,648
Nonwhite Female
612,373
745,502
866,593
965,885
ABSOLUTE INCREASE
PERCENT CHANGE
70/80 80/905
90/005
70/80
80/905 90/005
TOTAL POPULATION
797,355 650,794
554,596
15.68
11.06 8.50
Total White
552,136 432,610
407,506
14.14
9.70 8.33
White Male
253,777 214,939
193,239
13.20
9.87 8.08
White.Female
298,359 217,671
214,267
15.05
9.50 8.57
Total Nonwhite.
245,219 218,184
147,090
20.80
15.32 8.95
Nonwhite Male
112,090 97,093
47,798
19.78
14.30 6.16
Nonwhite Female
133,129 121,091
99,292
21.74
16.24 11.45
5Projected population data
Source: U.S.
Bureau of the Census,
N.C..Office
of State Budget and
Management,
and New Hanover County Planning Department.

10
TABLE 5
POPULATION FOR NEW HANOVER COUNTY
1970
1980
19906
20006
TOTAL POPULATION
82,996
103,471
120,899
137,303
Total White
63,998
80,353
.94,218
108,126
White Male
30,957
38,791
45,504
52,004
White Female
33,042
41,562
48,714
56,122
Total Nonwhite
18,998
23,118
26,681
29,177
Nonwhite Male
8,711
10,573
12,222
13,121
Nonwhite Female
10,287
12,545
14,459
16,056
ABSOLUTE
INCREASE
PERCENT CHANGE
70/80
80/906 90/006
70/80
80/906 90/006
TOTAL POPULATION
200475
17,428 16,404
24.67
16.84 11.95
Total White
16,355
13,865 13,908
25.55
17.25 12.86
White Male
7,835
6,713 6,500
25.31
17.30 12.50
White Female
8,520
7,152 7,408
.25.78
17.21 13.20
Total Nonwhite
4,120
3,563 2,496
21.69
15.41 8.55
Nonwhite Male
1,862
1,649 899
21.37
15.60. 6.85
Nonwhite Female
2,258
1,914 1,597
21.95
15.26 9.95
6Projected population data.
Source: U.S.
Bureau of the
Census,.N.C. Office of State
Budget and
Management,
and New Hanover
County Planning
Department.

11
MIGRATION
Projected migration figures, shown in Table 6, indicate that overall more
persons will be moving into the State and County than will be leaving. However,
these net in -migration figures will be lower in the 1980/2000 period than they
were in the 1970's. Whereas, the State had a net in -migration of over 400,000
persons in the 1970's, in the 1980's this figure is expected to drop to slightly
over 330,000 and in the 1990's to roughly 317,000.
At the County level, the net in -migration figure for the 1970's was at
roughly 15,000. In the 1980's this number is expected to decline to roughly
12,000 and to stay at roughly that level until the end of the century.
TABLE 6
TOTAL TOTAL
IN -MIGRATION FOR NORTH CAROLINA IN -MIGRATION FOR NEW HANOVER COUNTY
1970/80 408,433 15,109
1980/907 330,610 11,965
1990/007 317,147 11,688

12
11 U. SUBAREA TRENDS AND PROJECTIONS
The purpose of this section is to examine the population trends and
projections of New Hanover County in terms of its municipalities.and the
unincorporated area, as shown in Table 7.
The dominant municipality in New Hanover County is the City of Wilmington.
Wilmington's share of the County's population, however, has steadily decreased .
from a majority of 61.4 percent in 1960 to 42.5 percent in 1980. in 1990
Wilmington's share of the population is expected to increase to 47.3 percent
principally as a result of two major annexations that took place in the early
1980's. Barring any more annexations, Wilmington's share of the County's
population is again expected to decrease, this time to 43.7 percent. Conversely,
the unincorporated area increased its proportion of the County's population from
35.5 percent in 1960 to 52.2 percent in 1980. After the annexations of 1985, .
the unincorporated area's population fell to 41.6 percent, however toward the end
of the century this percentage is expected to increase to 43.3 percent.
The beach municipalities experienced slight population increases during the
1970s. However, in the 1980s and 1990s, this trend is expected to.accelerate as
the beach communities will continue to enjoy a building boom that began in the
early 1980's. The percent of the total county population living at Wrightsville,
Carolina, and Kure Beaches in 1990 will be roughly double what it was in
1980--5,495 persons. In 1980 Wrightsville Beach had a population of 2,884 or
2.8 percent of the County. In 1990 it is expected its population will be 6,750
or 5.6 percent of the County. Although by the end of the century Wrightsville
Beach's population is expected to be 7,550, its percentage of the total county
population .(5.5 percent) will remain almost what it was in 1990. In contrast
Carolina and Kure Beaches' shares of total county population are anticipated to
Increase. In 1980 Carolina Beach had a population of 2,000 or 1.9 percent of the
County. Kure Beach had a population of 611 or 0.6 percent of the County. In
1990 Carolina Beach is anticipated to -have a population of 5,239 or 4.3 percent
of the county. Kure Beach is anticipated to have a population of 1,458 or 1.2
percent of the county. By the.end of the century Carolina. Beach is expected to
have a population of 7,875 or 5.7 percent of the county. Kure Beach is expected
to have a population.of 2,430 or 1.8 percent of the county.

TABLR 7
NEW HANOVER COUNTY POPULATION BY MUNICIPALITY
AND UNINCORPORATED AREA
1960
of
1970
of
1980
% of
1990
% of
2000
of
JURISDICTION
Population
County
Population
County
Population
County
Population
County
Population
County
New Hanover County
71,742
100
82,996
100
103,471
100
120,899
100
137,303
100
Unincorporated Area
25,521
35.5
33,069
39.8
53,976
52.2
50,323
41.6
59,398
43.3
City of Wilmington
44,013
61.4
46,169
55.6
44,000
42.5
57,1298
47.3
60,050
43,E
Wrightsville Beach
723
1.0
1,701
2.1
2,884
2.8
.6,750
5.6
7,550
5.5
Carolina Beach
1,192
1.7
1,663
2.0
2,000
1.9
5,239
4.3
7,875
5.7
Kure Beach
293
0.4
394
0.5
611
0.6
1,458
1.2
2,430
1.8
Sources: U.S. Bureau
of Census;
Cape rear Council of
Governments; Wrightsville,
Carolina,
and Kure Beaches
and the
City of Wilmington.
8 Projections for
Wilmington in
the 1990's include annexations:
"Area A"
from
Annexation
1981 and "Area
B" from
Annexation 1982, to be
effective by 1985.

14
IV. CHANGES IN POPULATION, COMPOSITION
AND HOUSING NEEDS
Chanaes in Aae Structure
During the 1980's and 1990's there are major changes expected in the age
structure of the County's.population, as indicated in Table 8. Some of these
changes form distinct patterns that will be evident in the future as residents
move into successively older groups. First, the large number of children born
soon after World War Il are commonly referred to as the baby -boom generation.
The aging of.the baby -boom generation becomes evident in the.population structure
table for New.Hanover County for 1970, 1980, 1990 and 2000. In the 1970s the
most -apparent population increase occurred among the ranks of the 25-34 year olds
which increased by 65.9 percent. in the 1980's it is anticipated the.most
apparent population increase will occur among the ranks of the 35-44 year olds
which are expected to increase by 54.41 percent. In the 1990s it is expected the
most apparent population increase will occur among the ranks of the 45-54 year
olds which are expected to increase by 48.54 per In general the proportion
of older adults (35 and older) is expected to increase in the coming decades.`
The percentage of older adults in the population was 41 in 1970 and 41.7 in 1980.
In 1990 this percentage is anticipated to be 46.84 and in the year 2000, 52.65.
Second, while in the 1970's there was a 5.1 percent decline in the number of
children under 5 years of age, in the 1980s there appears to be a surge of
children within this age category which will increase the population by 13.39
percent to roughly 7,656 children. This population level for children aged 5 and
under is expected to be maintained; in the year 2000 it is expected there will be
7,670 children aged 5 and under.
Third, the marked decline among the ranks -of the children under 14 years of
age during the 1970s is expected to produce a marked decline among persons aged
5-24 in the 1980s. In the .1990s this trend is expected to produce a marked
decline in the number 15-34 year olds. Thus in the future the teenage population
of the County is expected to decline as a percentage of the total population.
Fourth, improved health care and increased life expectancies will continue
to push a large percentage of the local and national population into the ranks of
the elderly. The increasing attractiveness of New Hanover County as a retirement -
area will also foster this growth. The number of persons over 65 years of age
increased by 49.9 percent in the 1970s. In the 1980's and 1990's the ranks of
the elderly are expected to continue increasing, although less drama ticaily.than
in the 1970's. - In the 1980's the number of those 65 and over is expected to
increase. by 39.24 percent and in the 1990s by 21.15 percent.'

15
TABLE
8
POPULATION STRUCTURE OF
NEW HANOVER COUNTY
BY AGE 1970,
1980,
1990 and
2000,
AGE GROUP
YEAR
'
1970
1980
1990
2000
Under 5
7,117
6,752
7,656
7,670
5-14
16,483
16,477
15,821
17,469
15-24
14,559
19,167
18,766
18,059
25-34
10,799
17,917
22,023
219,809
35-44
9,590
12,174
18,798
23012
45-54
9,956
10,446
12,774
18,975
55-64
7,527
10,098
10,524
12,697 .
Over 65
6,965
10,440
14,537
17,612
TOTAL
82,996
103,471
120,899
137,303
loChange
%Change
%Change
1970-80
1980-90
1990-00
Under 5
-5.1
13.39
0.18
5-14
-0.0
-3.98
10.42
15-24
31.6
-2.09
-3.77
25-34
65.9
22.92
-0.97
35-44
26.9
54.41
22.42
45-54
4.9
22.29
48.54
55-64
34.1
4.22
20.65
Over 65
49.9
39.24
21.15
TOTAL
24.7
16.84
13.57
PROPORTION
OF OLDER ADULTS (35 and older)
IN THE POPULATION
1970
1980
1990
2000
Number of
Older
" Adults
(35 and
older)
34,038
43,158
56,633
72,29.E-3
TOTAL POPULATION
82,996
103,471
120,899
137,303
Percent of
older
adults
in the total
population
41.01%-
41,714R'
46.84103
52.65
Source:
U.S. Census
and N.C. Office
of
State Budget and Management. and --N- �':
Hanover County
Planning Department.

16
Household Characteristics
In the 1980's and 90's there will be a trend toward stabilization of the
dominant local and national trends of the 1960's and 70's of declining household
and family -size and increase in the single parent and nonfamily households.
Locally this trend appears evident in the projected stabilization of
household size. Table 9 illustrates these changes and facilitates household size
comparisons between areas.. However, it is important to note that the average
household size it one of the most difficult demographic characteristics to
predict.
Between 1960 and 1980, New Hanover County's average household size declined
from 3.43 persons to 2.69 persons or by roughly 0.75 persons per housing unit.
This meant that in 1980 five homes were required to.house the same number of
people that four homes accommodated in .1960. It is projected that between 1980
and 2000, New Hanover County's average household size will decline from 2.69 in
1980 to 2.38 in 2000. This means that in the year 2000 nine housing units will
be required to house the same number of people that eight homes accommodated in
1980.
In the 1970's the rapid growth of non -family households was a major reason
for the sharp decline in the average U.S. household size. At that time the large
number of persons born in the post World War II baby boom era reached adulthood
during the 60's and 70's and chose to establish single person and non —family
households. In the 1980's and 90's many members of the baby boom generation will
likely marry and establish joint households. This decrease in single person
households will be partially offset by the new generation of young adults and the
growing ranks of the -elderly setting up single person households. As a result
future changes in household size will be less dramatic than those of the past.
The figures in Table 9 show that as New Hanover County has become more
urbanized, the average household size of area homes has become smaller than the
national average. This trend has become especially noticeable in the City.of
Wilmington, where the number of persons per household fell dramatically from 1970
to 1980 and. is expected to continue decreasing. However, while average household
sizes are expected to continue declining at the national and local levels,
demographic experts anticipate that future declines will be less than -those in
the past.9
9United States Department of Commerce News,."Less Change Ahead for the .American
• Family? Census Bureau Demographers Think So." February 11, 1979.

17
TABLE 9
AVERAGE HOUSEHOLD
SIZE
NEW HANOVER COUNTY
AND UNITED STATES
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
New Hanover.County 3.43
3.08
2.69
2.51
2.38
City Of Wilmington 3.36
2.93
2.45
2.31
2.22
Balance of County --
3.28
2.95
2.75
2.61
North Carolina 3.66
3.24,
2.80
2.57
2.40
United States 3.33
3.14
2.74
2.53
2.39
Source: U.S. Bureau
of the Census,
North Carolina
Office of
State
Management and
Budget, the City
of Wilmington
Planning
.
Department, and
the New Hanover
County Planning Department.

18
GROSS HOUSING NEEDS
New Hanover County, which saw its housing stock increase by over 11,800
units during the 1970's, is projected to net an additional 8,473 units during the
1980's and 10,240 units during the 1990's (after demolitions). This estimate was
obtained by dividing the projected total population by the projected average
household size for 1990. An allowance was made for an estimated vacancy rate of
7 percent in 1990 and 2000 to arrive at the total housing unit figure shown in
Table 10.
.For the area of the County within the Wilmington City limits, a net increase
of approximately 6700 units is forecasted from 1980 to 1990. Nearly 60 percent
of this increase (3854 housing units) will be located in the newly annexed areas
A and B to the City of Wilmington as shown on Table 11. Assuming that no other
major annexations occur until the end of the century, the number of housing units
within the City, of Wilmington are to expected increase -by roughly 2500 from 1980
to 1990.
TABLE 10
POPULATION, HOUSING AND HOUSEHOLD.SIZE
NEW HANOVER COUNTY
(INCLUDING BEACH COMIUNITIES)
POPULATION TOTAL OCCUPIED AVERAGE
HOUSING HOUSING HOUSEHOLD
UNITS UNITS SIZE
196010 71,742 34,578 20,932 3.34
197010 82,996 31,475 26,623 3.08
198010 103,471 43,319 37,723 2.69
1990t1 120,899 51,792 48,167 2.51
200011 137,303 62,032 57,690 2.38
ABSOLUTE CHANGE
POPULATION TOTAL
OCCUPIED
HOUSING
HOUSING
UNITS
UNITS
1960-70
11,254
-3,103
5,691
1970-80
20,475
11,844
11,100
1980-90
17,428
8,473
10,444
1990-00
16,404
10,240
9,523
1OSource;
U.S. Census of
Population
11Assumes
a 7% vacancy rate
including"beach communities. Projections by
.N.C.
State Office of.Budget
and Management
and the New Hanover County
Planning
Department.

19
TABLE 11
POPULATION HOUSING AND HOUSEHOLD SIZE13
City
of Wilmington
Year
Population
Total
Occuppied
Average
Housing
Housing
Household
Units
Units
Size
1960
44,013
14,158
13,111
3.36'
1970
46,169
17,223
15,639
2.93
1980
44,000
19,212
17,418
2.45
199012
57,129
26,198
24,731
2.31
200012
60,050
28,654
27,049
2.22
12Figures include annexation of."Area All from Annexation 1981 and "Area B"
from Annexation 1982, effective by 1985.
13Assumption: The city-wide vacancy rate for.the 1980's and 1990's is 5.6
percent (Source: Housing Market Analysis of New Hanover County North
Carolina, February 1983, Wilmington Planning Department and the New
Hanover County Planning Department.

20
HOUSING DEMAND BY TYPE14
New Hanover County has been closely paralleling the nation with regard to
housing tenure. An overall trend toward increased owner -occupancy is reflected
in Table 12. Given this trend, it is likely that by the mid-1980's, two out of
every three housing units in the County will -be owner -occupied. Figures for the
City of Wilmington, which appear to counter this movement, can be explained. The
• City has historically been the area's focal point for multi -family rental
housing. The availability of public water and sewer, and other municipal
services have made this concentration possible. A slight shift toward increased
owner occupancy from 1960.to 1970 is a result of a major annexation of suburban
territory in the mid-19601s. Figures showing an increase in the percentage of
rental units in the City from 1970 to 1980 reflect heavy construction of new
apartment complexes.during the early part of the 19701s.
It is interesting to note, as illustrated in Table 13, from 1981 to 1983
more mobile home dwelling.units than any other type of dwelling unit have been
awarded certificates of occupancy in the unincorporated areas of the county. In
1980 38 percent of all new certificates of occupancy in the unincorporated county
were awarded for mobile home dwelling units; in 1981 this figure was 60 percent,
in 1982 it was 64 percent and in 1983 it was 44 percent. Thus a significant
portion of the housing stock in New hanover County is made up of mobile homes.

21
TABLE 12
HOUSING BY TENURE
WILMINGTON, NEW HANOVER COUNTY AND THE
UNITED STATES
%
OWNER OCCUPIED
% RENTAL OCCUPIED
1960
1970 1980
1960
1970
1980
Wilmington
50.5
51.5 47.2
49.5
48.5
52.8
New Hanover
58.3
62.9 64.6
41.7
37.1.
35.4
United States
61.9
62.9 64.4
38.1
37.1
35.6
Source:
U.S. Bureau
of:Census and Housing Market Analysis
of
New Hanover
County North
Carolina
prepared by the Wilmington
Planning
Department.

22
TABLE 13
RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION IN UNINCORPORATED NEW HANOVER COUNTY
NUMBER OF DWELLING UNITS
1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980
1981
1982 1983
Single -Family .832 427 420 510 613 619 648 647
383
210 383
*Duplex 8 2 0 2 4 4 14 0
2
24 48
Multi -Family 219 .0 0 0 0 0 0 4
12
40 204
*Note: One duplex equals TWO units.
NUMBER OF MOBILE HOME DWELLING UNITS AWARDED CERTIFICATES
OF OCCUPANCY
1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980
1981
1982 1983
638 565 457 467 461 439. 426 401
593
491 506
Source: New Hanover County Inspections Department and New
Hanover County
Planning Department.