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HomeMy WebLinkAboutLand Use Plan Update-1986140 130 120 110 100 POPULATION 90 IN THOUSANDS 80 i DCM COPY — ­VVA�A 1 DCM COPY lease do not remove!!!!! Division of Coastal Management Copy 4 p ::• :::•:: f:: : �r :::•::•s:• 30 1930 .1940 1950 1960 19M 1980 1990 2000 YEAR Technical Report No. 1 1986 Wilmington - New Hanover County Land Use Plan Update POPULATION STUDY OF NEW HANOVER COUNTY August, 1985 Prepared by the New Hanover County Planning Department i The preparation of this document was financed, in part, through a Coastal Areas Management Act grant provided by the North Carolina Coastal Management Program, through Funds provided by the Coastal Zone Management Act of 1972,-as amended, which is administered by the Office of Ocean and Coastal Resource Management, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. TABLE OF CONTENTS Past Growth Trends 1) New Hanover experienced accelerating growth from 1950 to 1980. The average annual growth rate increased from 1.3 percent for 1950-60 to 2.2 percent in 1970-80. 2) The 1980 Census indicates that the County's population increased from 82,996 in 1970 to 103,471 in 1980. The County population•in 1984, according to the State was 110,139. 3) Since 1950, the County's average annual growth rate has been higher than the State's and presently is growing at one and a half times the State's rate. Consequently the County's share of the total state population is.growing. 4) In the 1970's the average annual growth rate of Region 110111increased close to New Hanover County's 2.23 percent. Region 110111 average annual growth rate increased to 2.12 percent up from 0.78 percent in the 19601s. The County's share of Region 110" population has remained rather steady; it was 48.20 percent in 1970 and 48.69 percent in 1980. This is in contrast to the more pronounced increases in the 1950's and 1960's•and is indicative of the accelerated growth experienced during the 1970's by the other counties of the.Region. Population Composition 1) Four major changes in the age structure of the County's population are expected during the 1980's and 19901s. A. The percentage of older adults (35 and older) in the population is expected to increase significantly. Corresponding percentages for the years 1970, 1980, 1990, and 2000 are 41, 41.7, 46.84 and 52.65 percent. B. In the 1980's there will be a surge in the population of children aged 5 and under. C. There will be a marked decline of the.teenage.population as a percentage of the total. D. The population over 65 years of age will continue to increase in the .1980's and 19901s, however, the increase will be.less dramatic than the 19701s. In the 1970's the number of persons 65 and over increased by 49.9 percent. In the 19801s.it is expected to increase by 39.24 percent and in the 1990's by 21.15 percent. (These estimates take into account • migration changes.) 2) The County's average household size, which fell by approximately .75 persons over the past two decades, is expected to further decline to levels of 2.51 persons in 1990 and 2.38 persons in 2000. iRegion 110" consists of New Hanover County, Pender, Brunswick and Columbus Counties. 2 Population Projections 1) New Hanover County is expected to grow by 17,428 residents during the 19801s, with a projected total population of 120,899 in 1990. in I.ight of recent increases in employment, this projection may be conservative. 2) Net in -migration will account for 65 to 70 percent of the County's growth during the 1980's with the remaining growth being attributed to natural increase. 3.- Projected population growth for the 1980's represents an average annual rate of 1.5.percent and for the 1990's of 1.3 percent. Subarea Trends 1) New Hanover County's population majority shifted from the City of Wilmington to.the unincorporated area between 1970 and 1980. 2) Revitalization efforts and major annexations during the 1980's should work to reverse Wilmington's decline in population. 3) The beach municipalities experienced slight population Increases during the '19701s. However, in the 1980's and 19901s, growth is expected to accelerate as the. beach communities wiII continue to enjoy a building boom that began in the early 19801s. 11. OVERALL POPULATION TRENDS AND PROJECTIONS A. TRENDS County Growth Trends An analysis of.past growth trends affords the opportunity to present information that is descriptive and also supportive of the overall population projection for the County in the year 2000. The recent growth history for. New Hanover County is presented in Table 1 and Figure 1. Since 1930, the County's population has not grown at a uniform rate. The 1940-50 growth rate, for example, showed a large increase over the previous decade due to the, County's. industrial expansion during World War II. The large increase for 1970-80 is a result of industrial expansion during the late 1960's and early 19701s. This development activity caused -a reduction of out -migration and increased in -migration, resulting in a larger annual growth rate. This growth rate appears to have peaked in the 1970's with decreasing growth rates projected for the 1980's and 1990's. The significance of the County's population growth rate can be better appreciated -when .it i.s discussed in terms of the number of years required for the population to double at a given growth rate. At the annual 1.5 percent growth rate of the 1960's the population of New Hanover County would double in 46 years. At the annual 2.2 percent growth rate of the 1970's the population would double in only 32 years. However at the annual 1.5 percent growth rate projected for the 1980's it would take 46 years for the County's population to double. + Vw-iyrsu Aivu rrcuJtL I t NJ9O AND z000'x 130"': I wti�+c;}'�•.xvr.x'sc`-�•�•s••y ..ti: _fit } /000' - - p,�$}�,.f, :S•., .}„ ,%rat 1, POPULATION 90IN THOUSANDSA i 40 r`: { 30 1930 1940 1950 1960 sm 1980 19'902000 YEAR SOURCE: NEW HANOVER COUNTY PLANNING DEPARTMENT, U.S. BUREAU OF THE CENSUS, N.C. OFFICE OF STATE MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET :SEE SECTION ON POPULATION PROJECTIONS FOR FULL DISCUSSION OF THE FIGURES FOR 1990 AND 2000. 4 TABLE 1 New Hanover County Population Growth Characteristics for Selected Years County Population 1930 43,010 1940 47.935 . 1950 63,272 1960 71,742 1970 82,996 . 1980 103,471 1990 12098992 2000 137,3032 Absolute Increase 1930-40 4,925 1940-50 15,337` 1950-60 8,470 1960-70 11,254 1970-80 20,475 1980-90 17,4282 1990-00 16,4042 Average Annual Growth Rate3 1930-40 1.1% 1940-50 2.8p 1950-60 1.3% 1960-70 1.5% 1970-80 2.2% 1980-90 1.5/0 1990-00 1.3%2 Source: U.S. Bureau of Census; N.C. Office of State Management and Budget and the New Hanover County Plannng Department. 2Estimates based on the projections of the N.C. Office of State Management and Budget. 3Average annual geometric rates are derived.using the compound interest formula: Pn=Po (1+r)n Where Po is the initial population, Pn is the populaton at the end of the, period, n is the time period, and r is the average annual rate of change. 5 Comparisons to State and -Region 110" Trends A comparison of population growth rates at the State, regional and local levels is presented in Table 2. The average County annual growth rate was about one and a half times as great asthatof the State. The relationship of the growth rates of the County and Region "0"4 changed dramatically during the 1970-80 period. For 1950-60 and 1960-70, the County's growth rate was two and a half and two times greater, respectively, than that of the region. During the 1970's , however, rapid population growth in other counties of the Region caused the Region 110" average -annual growth rate to be close to the County's. While New Hanover County grew at 2.23 percent per year, the regional population increased.by 2.12 percent per year. The changes.in the growth rates for the State, Region and County are further reflected in the County's share of total population for the State and Region. The County's share of population of the larger areas is shown in Table 3. As expected from the analysis of the State and County annual growth rates, New Hanover County's share of the State population is continuing to increase. Similarly, the comparison of the Regional and County growth rates confirms the change in the trend of the County's share of the Region's population. New Hanover County's share of the Region's total population was 48.20 percent in 1970 and 48.69 percent in 1980. Although the County's population increased, its share of the Region's population did not significantly increase because surrounding counties were also experiencing rapid population increases. 4 Region 110" consists of New Hanover County, Pender, Brunswick and Columbus Counties. 6 TABLE 2 Comparison of Population Growth Rages New Hanover County, Region ROn and North Carolina Population " 1950 1960 1970 1980 New Hanover County 63,272 71.0742 82,996 103,471 Region 110" 151,554 159,501 172,305 212,500 North Carolina 4,061,929 4,556,155 5,082,059 5,881,766 Average Annual Growth Rate 50-60 60-70 70-80 New Hanover County 1.27% 1.47% 2.23% Region non .051 0.78 2.12 North Carolina 1.15 1.10 1.47 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, North Carolina "Office of State Budget and Management. TABLE 3 New Hanover County Share of Total Population 1950 1960 1970 1980 North Carolina 1.56% 1.57% 1.63% 1.76,10' " Region 110" 41.70 45.00 48.20 48.69 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, North Carolina Office_ of State Budget and Management. 7 B.-. POPULATION PROJECTION METHODOLOGY Projections Overview Projected,population figures for the years 1990 and 2000 must be determined to provide a basis for estimating future land use needs and specifically the needs of future residential development. The population projection is also useful for a wide variety of other applications including estimates of future revenues, public service needs, assessments and similar related purposes. Projections prepared by the North Carolina State Department of Administration Office of State Budget and Management (OSBM) will be used for the purpose of this study for the following reasons: first, under the Coastal Area Management Act's land use planning guidelines, it is recommended that local governments use the OSBM Projection unless sufficient justification can be found. to select another. Second, the OSBM projection method is well equipped to handle migrational effects, which have been a major factor in the past growth of the County, and are expected to play a continued role in the future expansion of area population. The OSBM population projection of 120,899 for 1990 represents a growth of 17,428 during the 19801s. Of this growth, 69 percent can be attributed to people.moving into the area from outside the County. This is a continuation of the.past trends of in -migration and is the primary source of the County's growth. Presently OSBM population estimates appear to be fairly accurate. If it is assumed that the projected population increase of 17,428 persons for the 1980-90 decade will be evenly distributed during the ten year period, then yearly, for this period, the County can expect to have a population increase of 1,743 persons. Under this assumption the County's population could be expected to have grown by 6,972 persons by 1984 and to have brought the County's total population to 110,444 persons. In July 1984, OSBM estimated -the County's population to be 110,139 which represents an increase of 6,668 persons and is in keeping with the previously cited projections. . It is important to note that some authorities view OSBM figures to be overly conservative and anticipate population increases substantially higher than those projected by OSBM, particularly, over the short term. The reason for this -is that migration rates are heavily influenced by economic conditions and OSBM figures may not take into -account recent economic changes in New Hanover County. Certain economic indicators for the Wilmington --New Hanover area have shown that in the last several years the local economy has been moving upward at a rapid pace. This phenomenon usually accompanies a population surge because it usually fosters greater in -migration. Fluctuations caused by seasonal population are not considered significant because (1) summer visitors tend primarily to stay in the incorporated Beach towns, (2) occupancy rates in the City's major motels are relatively stable due to year round business travel, and (3) the seasonal population fluctuation is insignificant compared to the permanent population. 8 Growth Population indicators,.as shown in Table 4, for North Carolina and New Hanover County point to continuing growth through the end of .the century. As alreay mentioned, traditionally, the County has grown at a faster pace than the State. From 1970 to 1980 the County's population increased by 24.7 percent compared to the Sta te's increase of 15.7 percent. However this gap is expected to narrow as New Hanover County's projected proportional increase for the 1980's is 16.84 percent while the State's is 11.06 percent. Comparable figures for the 19901s aree 11.95 percent for the County and 8.5 percent for the State. These figures also indicate that the growth rate appears to have peaked during the last decade and will probably decline during the next twenty years. Overall these trends appear to be reflected in the population growth among both whites and nonwhites of both sexes. 1970 1980 19905 20005 TOTAL POPULATION 5,084,411 5,881,766 6,532,560 7,087,156 Total White 3,905,371 4,457,507 4,890,117 5,297,623 White Mate 1,922,851 2,176,628 2,391,567 2,584,806 White Female 1,982,520 2,280,879 2,498,550 2,712,817 Total Nonwhite 1,179,040 1,424,259 1,642,443 1,789,533 Nonwhite Male 566,667 678,757 775,850 - 823,648 Nonwhite Female 612,373 745,502 866,593 965,885 ABSOLUTE INCREASE PERCENT CHANGE 70/80 80/905 90/005 70/80 80/905 90/005 TOTAL POPULATION 797,355 650,794 554,596 15.68 11.06 8.50 Total White 552,136 432,610 407,506 14.14 9.70 8.33 White Male 253,777 214,939 193,239 13.20 9.87 8.08 White.Female 298,359 217,671 214,267 15.05 9.50 8.57 Total Nonwhite. 245,219 218,184 147,090 20.80 15.32 8.95 Nonwhite Male 112,090 97,093 47,798 19.78 14.30 6.16 Nonwhite Female 133,129 121,091 99,292 21.74 16.24 11.45 5Projected population data Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, N.C..Office of State Budget and Management, and New Hanover County Planning Department. 10 TABLE 5 POPULATION FOR NEW HANOVER COUNTY 1970 1980 19906 20006 TOTAL POPULATION 82,996 103,471 120,899 137,303 Total White 63,998 80,353 .94,218 108,126 White Male 30,957 38,791 45,504 52,004 White Female 33,042 41,562 48,714 56,122 Total Nonwhite 18,998 23,118 26,681 29,177 Nonwhite Male 8,711 10,573 12,222 13,121 Nonwhite Female 10,287 12,545 14,459 16,056 ABSOLUTE INCREASE PERCENT CHANGE 70/80 80/906 90/006 70/80 80/906 90/006 TOTAL POPULATION 200475 17,428 16,404 24.67 16.84 11.95 Total White 16,355 13,865 13,908 25.55 17.25 12.86 White Male 7,835 6,713 6,500 25.31 17.30 12.50 White Female 8,520 7,152 7,408 .25.78 17.21 13.20 Total Nonwhite 4,120 3,563 2,496 21.69 15.41 8.55 Nonwhite Male 1,862 1,649 899 21.37 15.60. 6.85 Nonwhite Female 2,258 1,914 1,597 21.95 15.26 9.95 6Projected population data. Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census,.N.C. Office of State Budget and Management, and New Hanover County Planning Department. 11 MIGRATION Projected migration figures, shown in Table 6, indicate that overall more persons will be moving into the State and County than will be leaving. However, these net in -migration figures will be lower in the 1980/2000 period than they were in the 1970's. Whereas, the State had a net in -migration of over 400,000 persons in the 1970's, in the 1980's this figure is expected to drop to slightly over 330,000 and in the 1990's to roughly 317,000. At the County level, the net in -migration figure for the 1970's was at roughly 15,000. In the 1980's this number is expected to decline to roughly 12,000 and to stay at roughly that level until the end of the century. TABLE 6 TOTAL TOTAL IN -MIGRATION FOR NORTH CAROLINA IN -MIGRATION FOR NEW HANOVER COUNTY 1970/80 408,433 15,109 1980/907 330,610 11,965 1990/007 317,147 11,688 12 11 U. SUBAREA TRENDS AND PROJECTIONS The purpose of this section is to examine the population trends and projections of New Hanover County in terms of its municipalities.and the unincorporated area, as shown in Table 7. The dominant municipality in New Hanover County is the City of Wilmington. Wilmington's share of the County's population, however, has steadily decreased . from a majority of 61.4 percent in 1960 to 42.5 percent in 1980. in 1990 Wilmington's share of the population is expected to increase to 47.3 percent principally as a result of two major annexations that took place in the early 1980's. Barring any more annexations, Wilmington's share of the County's population is again expected to decrease, this time to 43.7 percent. Conversely, the unincorporated area increased its proportion of the County's population from 35.5 percent in 1960 to 52.2 percent in 1980. After the annexations of 1985, . the unincorporated area's population fell to 41.6 percent, however toward the end of the century this percentage is expected to increase to 43.3 percent. The beach municipalities experienced slight population increases during the 1970s. However, in the 1980s and 1990s, this trend is expected to.accelerate as the beach communities will continue to enjoy a building boom that began in the early 1980's. The percent of the total county population living at Wrightsville, Carolina, and Kure Beaches in 1990 will be roughly double what it was in 1980--5,495 persons. In 1980 Wrightsville Beach had a population of 2,884 or 2.8 percent of the County. In 1990 it is expected its population will be 6,750 or 5.6 percent of the County. Although by the end of the century Wrightsville Beach's population is expected to be 7,550, its percentage of the total county population .(5.5 percent) will remain almost what it was in 1990. In contrast Carolina and Kure Beaches' shares of total county population are anticipated to Increase. In 1980 Carolina Beach had a population of 2,000 or 1.9 percent of the County. Kure Beach had a population of 611 or 0.6 percent of the County. In 1990 Carolina Beach is anticipated to -have a population of 5,239 or 4.3 percent of the county. Kure Beach is anticipated to have a population of 1,458 or 1.2 percent of the county. By the.end of the century Carolina. Beach is expected to have a population of 7,875 or 5.7 percent of the county. Kure Beach is expected to have a population.of 2,430 or 1.8 percent of the county. TABLR 7 NEW HANOVER COUNTY POPULATION BY MUNICIPALITY AND UNINCORPORATED AREA 1960 of 1970 of 1980 % of 1990 % of 2000 of JURISDICTION Population County Population County Population County Population County Population County New Hanover County 71,742 100 82,996 100 103,471 100 120,899 100 137,303 100 Unincorporated Area 25,521 35.5 33,069 39.8 53,976 52.2 50,323 41.6 59,398 43.3 City of Wilmington 44,013 61.4 46,169 55.6 44,000 42.5 57,1298 47.3 60,050 43,E Wrightsville Beach 723 1.0 1,701 2.1 2,884 2.8 .6,750 5.6 7,550 5.5 Carolina Beach 1,192 1.7 1,663 2.0 2,000 1.9 5,239 4.3 7,875 5.7 Kure Beach 293 0.4 394 0.5 611 0.6 1,458 1.2 2,430 1.8 Sources: U.S. Bureau of Census; Cape rear Council of Governments; Wrightsville, Carolina, and Kure Beaches and the City of Wilmington. 8 Projections for Wilmington in the 1990's include annexations: "Area A" from Annexation 1981 and "Area B" from Annexation 1982, to be effective by 1985. 14 IV. CHANGES IN POPULATION, COMPOSITION AND HOUSING NEEDS Chanaes in Aae Structure During the 1980's and 1990's there are major changes expected in the age structure of the County's.population, as indicated in Table 8. Some of these changes form distinct patterns that will be evident in the future as residents move into successively older groups. First, the large number of children born soon after World War Il are commonly referred to as the baby -boom generation. The aging of.the baby -boom generation becomes evident in the.population structure table for New.Hanover County for 1970, 1980, 1990 and 2000. In the 1970s the most -apparent population increase occurred among the ranks of the 25-34 year olds which increased by 65.9 percent. in the 1980's it is anticipated the.most apparent population increase will occur among the ranks of the 35-44 year olds which are expected to increase by 54.41 percent. In the 1990s it is expected the most apparent population increase will occur among the ranks of the 45-54 year olds which are expected to increase by 48.54 per In general the proportion of older adults (35 and older) is expected to increase in the coming decades.` The percentage of older adults in the population was 41 in 1970 and 41.7 in 1980. In 1990 this percentage is anticipated to be 46.84 and in the year 2000, 52.65. Second, while in the 1970's there was a 5.1 percent decline in the number of children under 5 years of age, in the 1980s there appears to be a surge of children within this age category which will increase the population by 13.39 percent to roughly 7,656 children. This population level for children aged 5 and under is expected to be maintained; in the year 2000 it is expected there will be 7,670 children aged 5 and under. Third, the marked decline among the ranks -of the children under 14 years of age during the 1970s is expected to produce a marked decline among persons aged 5-24 in the 1980s. In the .1990s this trend is expected to produce a marked decline in the number 15-34 year olds. Thus in the future the teenage population of the County is expected to decline as a percentage of the total population. Fourth, improved health care and increased life expectancies will continue to push a large percentage of the local and national population into the ranks of the elderly. The increasing attractiveness of New Hanover County as a retirement - area will also foster this growth. The number of persons over 65 years of age increased by 49.9 percent in the 1970s. In the 1980's and 1990's the ranks of the elderly are expected to continue increasing, although less drama ticaily.than in the 1970's. - In the 1980's the number of those 65 and over is expected to increase. by 39.24 percent and in the 1990s by 21.15 percent.' 15 TABLE 8 POPULATION STRUCTURE OF NEW HANOVER COUNTY BY AGE 1970, 1980, 1990 and 2000, AGE GROUP YEAR ' 1970 1980 1990 2000 Under 5 7,117 6,752 7,656 7,670 5-14 16,483 16,477 15,821 17,469 15-24 14,559 19,167 18,766 18,059 25-34 10,799 17,917 22,023 219,809 35-44 9,590 12,174 18,798 23012 45-54 9,956 10,446 12,774 18,975 55-64 7,527 10,098 10,524 12,697 . Over 65 6,965 10,440 14,537 17,612 TOTAL 82,996 103,471 120,899 137,303 loChange %Change %Change 1970-80 1980-90 1990-00 Under 5 -5.1 13.39 0.18 5-14 -0.0 -3.98 10.42 15-24 31.6 -2.09 -3.77 25-34 65.9 22.92 -0.97 35-44 26.9 54.41 22.42 45-54 4.9 22.29 48.54 55-64 34.1 4.22 20.65 Over 65 49.9 39.24 21.15 TOTAL 24.7 16.84 13.57 PROPORTION OF OLDER ADULTS (35 and older) IN THE POPULATION 1970 1980 1990 2000 Number of Older " Adults (35 and older) 34,038 43,158 56,633 72,29.E-3 TOTAL POPULATION 82,996 103,471 120,899 137,303 Percent of older adults in the total population 41.01%- 41,714R' 46.84103 52.65 Source: U.S. Census and N.C. Office of State Budget and Management. and --N- �': Hanover County Planning Department. 16 Household Characteristics In the 1980's and 90's there will be a trend toward stabilization of the dominant local and national trends of the 1960's and 70's of declining household and family -size and increase in the single parent and nonfamily households. Locally this trend appears evident in the projected stabilization of household size. Table 9 illustrates these changes and facilitates household size comparisons between areas.. However, it is important to note that the average household size it one of the most difficult demographic characteristics to predict. Between 1960 and 1980, New Hanover County's average household size declined from 3.43 persons to 2.69 persons or by roughly 0.75 persons per housing unit. This meant that in 1980 five homes were required to.house the same number of people that four homes accommodated in .1960. It is projected that between 1980 and 2000, New Hanover County's average household size will decline from 2.69 in 1980 to 2.38 in 2000. This means that in the year 2000 nine housing units will be required to house the same number of people that eight homes accommodated in 1980. In the 1970's the rapid growth of non -family households was a major reason for the sharp decline in the average U.S. household size. At that time the large number of persons born in the post World War II baby boom era reached adulthood during the 60's and 70's and chose to establish single person and non —family households. In the 1980's and 90's many members of the baby boom generation will likely marry and establish joint households. This decrease in single person households will be partially offset by the new generation of young adults and the growing ranks of the -elderly setting up single person households. As a result future changes in household size will be less dramatic than those of the past. The figures in Table 9 show that as New Hanover County has become more urbanized, the average household size of area homes has become smaller than the national average. This trend has become especially noticeable in the City.of Wilmington, where the number of persons per household fell dramatically from 1970 to 1980 and. is expected to continue decreasing. However, while average household sizes are expected to continue declining at the national and local levels, demographic experts anticipate that future declines will be less than -those in the past.9 9United States Department of Commerce News,."Less Change Ahead for the .American • Family? Census Bureau Demographers Think So." February 11, 1979. 17 TABLE 9 AVERAGE HOUSEHOLD SIZE NEW HANOVER COUNTY AND UNITED STATES 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 New Hanover.County 3.43 3.08 2.69 2.51 2.38 City Of Wilmington 3.36 2.93 2.45 2.31 2.22 Balance of County -- 3.28 2.95 2.75 2.61 North Carolina 3.66 3.24, 2.80 2.57 2.40 United States 3.33 3.14 2.74 2.53 2.39 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, North Carolina Office of State Management and Budget, the City of Wilmington Planning . Department, and the New Hanover County Planning Department. 18 GROSS HOUSING NEEDS New Hanover County, which saw its housing stock increase by over 11,800 units during the 1970's, is projected to net an additional 8,473 units during the 1980's and 10,240 units during the 1990's (after demolitions). This estimate was obtained by dividing the projected total population by the projected average household size for 1990. An allowance was made for an estimated vacancy rate of 7 percent in 1990 and 2000 to arrive at the total housing unit figure shown in Table 10. .For the area of the County within the Wilmington City limits, a net increase of approximately 6700 units is forecasted from 1980 to 1990. Nearly 60 percent of this increase (3854 housing units) will be located in the newly annexed areas A and B to the City of Wilmington as shown on Table 11. Assuming that no other major annexations occur until the end of the century, the number of housing units within the City, of Wilmington are to expected increase -by roughly 2500 from 1980 to 1990. TABLE 10 POPULATION, HOUSING AND HOUSEHOLD.SIZE NEW HANOVER COUNTY (INCLUDING BEACH COMIUNITIES) POPULATION TOTAL OCCUPIED AVERAGE HOUSING HOUSING HOUSEHOLD UNITS UNITS SIZE 196010 71,742 34,578 20,932 3.34 197010 82,996 31,475 26,623 3.08 198010 103,471 43,319 37,723 2.69 1990t1 120,899 51,792 48,167 2.51 200011 137,303 62,032 57,690 2.38 ABSOLUTE CHANGE POPULATION TOTAL OCCUPIED HOUSING HOUSING UNITS UNITS 1960-70 11,254 -3,103 5,691 1970-80 20,475 11,844 11,100 1980-90 17,428 8,473 10,444 1990-00 16,404 10,240 9,523 1OSource; U.S. Census of Population 11Assumes a 7% vacancy rate including"beach communities. Projections by .N.C. State Office of.Budget and Management and the New Hanover County Planning Department. 19 TABLE 11 POPULATION HOUSING AND HOUSEHOLD SIZE13 City of Wilmington Year Population Total Occuppied Average Housing Housing Household Units Units Size 1960 44,013 14,158 13,111 3.36' 1970 46,169 17,223 15,639 2.93 1980 44,000 19,212 17,418 2.45 199012 57,129 26,198 24,731 2.31 200012 60,050 28,654 27,049 2.22 12Figures include annexation of."Area All from Annexation 1981 and "Area B" from Annexation 1982, effective by 1985. 13Assumption: The city-wide vacancy rate for.the 1980's and 1990's is 5.6 percent (Source: Housing Market Analysis of New Hanover County North Carolina, February 1983, Wilmington Planning Department and the New Hanover County Planning Department. 20 HOUSING DEMAND BY TYPE14 New Hanover County has been closely paralleling the nation with regard to housing tenure. An overall trend toward increased owner -occupancy is reflected in Table 12. Given this trend, it is likely that by the mid-1980's, two out of every three housing units in the County will -be owner -occupied. Figures for the City of Wilmington, which appear to counter this movement, can be explained. The • City has historically been the area's focal point for multi -family rental housing. The availability of public water and sewer, and other municipal services have made this concentration possible. A slight shift toward increased owner occupancy from 1960.to 1970 is a result of a major annexation of suburban territory in the mid-19601s. Figures showing an increase in the percentage of rental units in the City from 1970 to 1980 reflect heavy construction of new apartment complexes.during the early part of the 19701s. It is interesting to note, as illustrated in Table 13, from 1981 to 1983 more mobile home dwelling.units than any other type of dwelling unit have been awarded certificates of occupancy in the unincorporated areas of the county. In 1980 38 percent of all new certificates of occupancy in the unincorporated county were awarded for mobile home dwelling units; in 1981 this figure was 60 percent, in 1982 it was 64 percent and in 1983 it was 44 percent. Thus a significant portion of the housing stock in New hanover County is made up of mobile homes. 21 TABLE 12 HOUSING BY TENURE WILMINGTON, NEW HANOVER COUNTY AND THE UNITED STATES % OWNER OCCUPIED % RENTAL OCCUPIED 1960 1970 1980 1960 1970 1980 Wilmington 50.5 51.5 47.2 49.5 48.5 52.8 New Hanover 58.3 62.9 64.6 41.7 37.1. 35.4 United States 61.9 62.9 64.4 38.1 37.1 35.6 Source: U.S. Bureau of:Census and Housing Market Analysis of New Hanover County North Carolina prepared by the Wilmington Planning Department. 22 TABLE 13 RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION IN UNINCORPORATED NEW HANOVER COUNTY NUMBER OF DWELLING UNITS 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 Single -Family .832 427 420 510 613 619 648 647 383 210 383 *Duplex 8 2 0 2 4 4 14 0 2 24 48 Multi -Family 219 .0 0 0 0 0 0 4 12 40 204 *Note: One duplex equals TWO units. NUMBER OF MOBILE HOME DWELLING UNITS AWARDED CERTIFICATES OF OCCUPANCY 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 638 565 457 467 461 439. 426 401 593 491 506 Source: New Hanover County Inspections Department and New Hanover County Planning Department.