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HomeMy WebLinkAboutLand Use Plan Update-1986 (5)FUTURE LAND USE NEEDS' IN NEW HANOVER COUNTY DCM COPY l9w DCM COPY lease do not remove!M! Division of Coastal Management Cnnv 1986 CAMA LAND USE PLAN UPDATE Report No. 9 Technical Report.9 1986 Wilmington — New Hanover County Land -Use Plan Update FUTURE LAND -USE NEEDS IN NEW HANOVER COUNTY January 1986 Prepared by the New Hanover County Planning Department The preparation of this document was financed, In part, through a Coastal Area Management Act grant provided by the North Carolina Coastal Management Program, through Funds provided by the Coastal Zone Management Act of 1972, as amended, which is administered by the Office of Coastal Zone Management, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. • •• P11 1. INTRODUCTION A. Methodology for Projecting Industrial/Commercial Growth B.. Methodology for Projecting Population Growth 1i.. GROVM PROJECTION RESULTS A. Employment B. Population 111. PROJECTED LAND -USE NEEDS A. Present Zoning District Acreages 1. Unincorporated County 2. City of Wilmington B. Projected Zoning District Acreage Needs IV. DIRECTION OF FUTURE GROV H A. Residential Demand B. Non -Manufacturing and Manufacturing PAGE 1 2 2 2 2 4 4 4 6 6 12 12 15 FUTURE LAND USE NEEDS IN NEW HANOVER COUNTY I. INTRODUCTION The purpose of this report is to estimate future land -use requirements in unincorporated New Hanover County and the City of Wilmington. It is assumed that industrial and regional trade growth, as measured by employment, is the driving demand force for .industrial and commercial land -use needs and that population growth is the driving demand force for residential land -use needs. A. Methodology for Prolectinq industrial/Comerciai Growth Using historical employment data from 1970 - 1984, linear regression equations were developed for each of the industries for which employment is reported by the N.C. Employment Securities Commission. These historical trends have been discussed in Technical Report Number 2, "The Economy of New Hanover County". A linear regression equation is essentially an effort to describe a historical trend in terms of a "straight line" equation that best "fits" the data. The use of linear regression requires that the following points be understood: (1) Linear regression assumes that growth patterns move in a straight line. It does not adjust for non -linear growth such as very rapid exponential growth as a new market is expanded or, conversely, a leveling off of growth as a market becomes saturated.. (2) Linear regression obscures whether or not an Industry fluctuates significantly. For instance, the employment levels of the County's manufacturing industries have tended to fluctuate dramatically in comparison to the non -manufacturing industries. This fluctuation may be due to the tendency of manufacturing industries to consist of several large firms where a single lay-off can disrupt the industryes .predictability. • (3) Linear regression is used to project the future, based strictly on historical.trends. No consideration is given to possible future changes In technology, new shifts in market perspectives, wars, or any other unpredictable influence. The projected employment levels for 1990, 1995, 2000, and 2005 were calculated for each industry based on the linear equations. The different industries werd grouped into three basic categories: heavy (intensive) Industrial, light (extensive) industrial, and commercial. The projected employment levels for the different industries were then summed based on the groupings. The rates of growth for each group of industries were calculated. B. Methodology for Projecting Population Growth This study has used those population projections developed -by the N.C. Office of State Budget and Management (OSBM). The State uses an average projection calculated from two different projection methods. One method used is a Regression (Ratio Correlation) Method, which projects population as a function of Federal income tax returns, school enrollment in grades 1 to 8, and automobile registrations. The Administrative Records Method, the second method, uses Federal tax data to measure the net migration of the nongroup quarter population under 65 years old, reported birth and death statistics to measure net natural change, data on Medicare enrollees to measure the population over 65 years old, and independent estimates of persons living in group quarters. As discussed in a previous report, Technical Report #1, "The Population of New Hanover County", the State's projections may be somewhat conservative because they do not reflect recent upswings in the County economy. These upswings, evidenced by employment increases, often p;-ecede increases in population. II. GROWTH PROJECTION RESULTS A. Emplorent Table 1 shows projected levels and rates of growth for employment levels for the industries and for.the three groupings of industries.. As evidenced, employment levels are projected to increase at an average annual rate of 3.1% between 1984 to 2000, eventually dropping to a: rate of 2.0% between 2000 to 2005. Much of this growth is projected to be due to the commercial (non -manufacturing) Industries which are projected to increase at average annual rates between 5.1% and 2.1%. The heavy and light Industries,.however,.are not expected to grow beyond present levels. B. Population The projected growth levels and rates for the population in New Hanover County, as developed in the earlier report, "Population of -New Hanover County", are shown below: POPULATION AVERAGE ANNUAL RATE OF INCREASE 1980 1984 1990 103,471 110,139 120,899 1.6% 1.6% 1995 2000 2005 129,101 137,303 146,463 1.4% 1.3% 11.3% It should be noted that the projected population growth rates are significantly lower than those projectedfor employment growth. The reason may be due to the differences in -projection techniques or by such facts as that new employment opportunities will likely be increasingly filled by persons residing In surrounding counties and commuting to New Hanover County. N . TABLE 1 EIPLOYMENT GROWTH PROJECTIONS 1 1984 2 1990 1995 2000 2005 Heavy Industrial Apparel 1253 100 100 100 100 Textiles 414 905 781 657 534 Machinery 1876 1458 1709 1959 2209 Lumber and Wood 379 172 100 100 100 Chemicals 2581 2064 2334 2604 2874 Stone, clay, glass 163 258 250 243 235 Subtotal 6666 4957 5274 5663 6052 % Change , -- -26% +6.4% +7.4% +6.9% % Average Annual Change -- -4.3% +1.3% +1.5% +1.4% Light Industrial Food 493 246 100 100 100 Printing 355 269 263 259 253 Other Manufacturing 1175 354 368 382 395 Subtotal 2021 869 731 741 748 % Change -- -57% -15.9% +1.4% +0.9% % Average Annual Change -- -9.5 -3.2% +0.3% +0.2% Commercial Trade 13,554 14,536 16,291 18,046 19,800 Construction 2,839 2,185 2,186 2,187 2,189 Fabricated metals 219 6,486 7,679 8,872 10,066 Finance 1,794 1,979 2,148 2,318 2,487 Service 7,995 7,991 9,067 10,144 11,221 Government 8,857 12,722 14,790 16,858 18,926 Transportation Communication Utilities- 3,411 4,713 5,104 5,496 5,887 Other non -manufacturing 275 212 233 253 274 Subtotal 38,944 50,824 57,498 64,174 70,850 % Change -- +30.5% +13.1% +11.6%. +10.4% % Average Annual Change -- +5.1% +2.6% +2.3% +2.1% TOTAL 47,681 56,650 63,503 70,578 77,650 % Change -- +18.8% +12.1% +11.0% +10% % Average Annual Change -- +3.1% +2.4% +2.2% +2% 1 These projections were prepared using.linear regression. :.For those Industries, however,. that showed negative growth rates, it was assumed that employment levels would not drop below 100. 2 Source of 1984 employment data: N.C. Employment Security Commission. 3 In 1980, approximately 8% of -all New Hanover County jobs were filled by non -County residents. This trend will probably become more apparent with the completion of Interstate 40 allowing for easy commuting from Pender County. -- A further explanation of the difference between employment and population growth rates is evident by examining the change in the ratio of employment to population over the last ten years. Between 1975 and 1984, this ratio increased from .432 to .497, at an average annual rate of approximately 1.5%. This trend of faster growth in employment than population reflects not only the tendency for commuting from outside the County, but also the tendency for more women to come into the workforce, recent declines in unemployment rates, and possibly the large proportion of "Baby Boomers" now in the work force. Regardless of the reasons for the difference in growth rates, it is more appropriate for employment projections to be overstated than understated when using these projections.to determine future land -use needs for industrial and commercial use. This overstatement helps prevent stifling of economic growth that might otherwise result from an insufficient amount of appropriately zoned land. 111. PROJECTED LAND -USE NEEDS A. Present Zoning District Acreages The effectiveness of planning for future land -use requirements Is dependent not only upon projected growth rates for various uses, as discussed, but also upon the means of implementation available. The principal implementation means in New Hanover County for -planning are the Zoning Ordinances of the County and City. 1. Unincorporated County Table 2 lists the present amounts of vacant and non -vacant industrially and. commercially zoned land in the unincorporated County. These_ estimates were prepared -through the use of tax.records, aerial photographs, and field checking. Residentially zoned land was not examined because of the obviously existing adequate large acreages throughout the County. The vast amount of vacant land in the County is zoned residential in a "holding" pattern, and generally serves not only as the source of future residential subdivisions but also as the base from which future zoning districts of commercial and industrial land are created. As indicated in Table 2, approximately 22,321.5 acres of land are commercially or industrially zoned in the unincorporated County. Sixty percent, or 13,499.1 acres, are vacant. The acreage amounts per district range from a low of 7.2 acres for O and I (Office and Institutional) zoned land, to a high of 18,778.3 acres of 1-2 (Heavy Industrial) zoned land. The overall ratio of vacant/total commercially or industrially zoned acreage is presently 0.6. This ratio, which means that 60% of the total commercially or industrially zoned acreage is vacant, is accounted for primarily. -by the large -vacant acreages -of 1-2 zoned property. If the 1-2 acreage Is removed from consideration, the ratio drops to .36, or 36 % commercial or industrial vacancy. 4 TABLE 2 ACREAGES OF VACANT AND NONVACANT CONNERCIALLY AND INDUSTRIALLY ZONED LAND IN THE -UNINCORPORATED COUNTY, 1985 Acreages Zoning ,Non - District Vacant Vacant TOTAL Vacant/TOTAL B-1 (Neighborhood Business) 56.6 95.0 151.6 .37 B-2 (Highway Business) 402.6 383.0 785.6 .51 0&1 (Office and Institutional) 2 5.2 7.2 .28 1-1 (Light Industrial) 107.6 254 361.6 .30 1-2 (Heavy Industrial) 12,208.2 6570.1 18,778.3 .65 A-1 (Airport Industrial) 391.1 1,515.1 1,906.2 .21 SC (Shopping Center) 7.4 0 7.4 1.0 PD - Light Industrial - 45.3 0 45.3_ 1.0 PD - Commercial 242.8 0 242.8 1.0 PD - Office.and Institutional 35.5 0 35.5 1.0 TOTAL 13,499.1 8,822.4 22,321.5 .60 5 It should be noted that two types of vacancy are recognized, as shown in Table 3, based on whether the entire parcel is completely unoccupied or partially unoccupied. Examples of partial occupancy are where a business is located on the highway frontage portion of a commercially zoned parcel but the back portion is vacant, or where a major firm is located on a large parcel and the vacant portions are intended for future expansion. This latter example may be particularly significant for the County's major manufacturing and mining firms located on large parcels. For Instance, approximately 3300 acres of the vacant 1-2 zoned property are in 100 acre or greater portions and are part of partially occupied parcel-s owned by mining companies. This fact helps explain the apparent high vacancy rate for 1-2 zoned property. 2. City of Wilmington Table 4 lists the present amount of vacant and non -vacant commercially and industrially zoned land in the City of Wilmington. These estimates were prepared in a manner similar to those prepared for the County. As indicated in Table 4, approximately 6,500 acres are commercially or industrially zoned. 35%, or nearly 2,300 acres, are presently vacant. it is Important to note that the City has approximately 346.7 acres of vacant and 1,346.7 acres of non -vacant Office and institutional (0 & 1) property, for a total of 1,693.4 acres. This large total, which makes Office and Institutional the largest commercial or industrial zoning district in the City, demonstrates the emphasis placed in the City on its role as a financial, insurance, legal, medical, and similar functional center for the region. The overall ratio of vacant/total commercially or industrially zoned acreage In the City is 0.35, or 35% vacant. B. Projected Zoning District Acreage Needs In this section, the earlier discussed projected growth rates for employment, as.listed in Table 1, are applied to the present acreages of the different zoning districts, in order to show future land -use needs. The zoning. districts'.are broadly grouped as Heavy Industrial, Light industrial, and Commercial, in accordance with the grouping of industries in Table 1. This broad grouping is necessary in order to apply the growth rates of the. various industries to the various zoning districts. it is assumed that the present amount of industrially.zoned property would not be decreased despite projected decreases in industrial employment over the next five to ten years. Tables 5 and 6 show the projected needs for -commercially and industrially zoned land for the unincorporated County and the City, respectively. As evident, the demand for new land is anticipated to be greatest for commercial development, which includes office and institutional development. The unincorporated County is projected to require approximately 22,836 vacant and non -vacant acres for commercial and industrial development in 1995. The City will need 7494.7 acres, of which 4002.4 acres will be for commercial use. Table 7 shows the total for both the County and the City. In the year 2005, 31,620.1 acres are anticipated to be needed, or nearly 27% of the County's total land base of 118,656 acres. 0 TABLE 3 VACANT COMMERCIALLY AND INDUSTRIALLY ZONED LAND IN THE UNINCORPORATED COUNTY, 1985 Vacant Acreages Vacant Acreages Total Zoning on Partially on Totally Vacant District Occupied Parcels Unoccupied Parcels Acreages B-1 (Neighborhood Business) 20 36.6 56.6 B-2 (Highway Business) 118.6 284 402.6 Obl (Office & Institutional) 2 0 2 1-1 (Light Industrial) 20.5 87.1 107.6 1-2 (Heavy Industrial) 8,139.1 4,069.1 12,208.2 A-1 (Airport Industrial) 325.8 65.3 .391.1 SC (Shopping Center) 0 7.4 7.4 PD - Light Industrial 0 45.3 45.3 PD - Commercial 0 242.8 242.8 PD - Office and Institutional 0 35.5 35.5 l' . 7 Zoning District C8 RB CBD 0&1 CS Al LM -HM TABLE 4 ACREAGES OF VACANT AND NON -VACANT COMMERCIALLY AND INDUSTRIALLY ZONE LAND IN THE CITY OF MiLM1NGTON 1985 Acreages Non - Vacant Vacant TOTAL Vacant/TOTAL 151.3 310.1 461.4 .33 229.6 435.6 664.6 .35 37.2 148.7 - 185.9 .20 346.7 1346.7 1693.4 .21 104.9 356.7 461.6 .23 523.3 209.3 732.6 .38 277.1 353.5 630.6 .44 629.5 1038 1667.5 .38 2299 4198.6 6497.6 .35 11 TABLE 5 PROJECTED NEEDS FOR COMMERCIALLY AND INDUSTRIALLY ZONED LAND IN THE UNINCORPORATED COUNTY 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 VACANT NON+VACANT TOTAL'-. .."CANT NON -VACANT TbTAt'. VACANT '' NON -VACANT "TOTAL77' V%ACANT NON -VACANT ..TOTAL. .. VACANT NON -VACANT TOTAL H wy Industrial 12.208.2 6570.1 (18,778.3. 12,209.2 6570.1 18,778.3 12.208.2 6570.1 18;778.3 12,208.2 6570.1 18.778.3 12,208.2 6570.1 18,778.3 1-2 12,208.2 6570.1 18,778.3 - -- •- -- -- -- -- -- -- Light Industrial 544 1769.1 2,313.1 544 1769.1 2,313.1 544 1769.1' 2.313.1 544 1769.1 2,313.1 544 1769.1 2,313.1 1-1 107.6 254 361.E A-1 391.1 1515.1 10906.2 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- _- __ •_ PD Light Industry 45.3 0 45.3 -- •- -- -- -- - Commerelol 746.9 483.2 1,230.1 936.3 606.2 1,542.5 1,059.0 685.6 1,744.6 1,181.8 765.2 1.941 1,304.7 844.8 2.149.5 8-1 56.6 95.0 151.E -- -- -- s-- -- -- -- -- -- 0-2 402.6 383.0 785.E -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 061 2 5.2 7.2 •- -- -- -- _- _• _- Sc 7.4 0 7.4 -- -- -- -- -- -- PO Commercial 242.8 0 242.8 -- -- -- -- -- -- - PD 061 35.5 0 35.5 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- TOTAL 13.499.1 8.822.4 22,321.5 13,693.5 8940.4 22.633.9 13,701.6 9134.4 22.836 13,938.2 9100.2 23,038.4 14,060.7 9.18,0.2 23,240.9 O • TABLE ¢ PMJWM MEm; F4a COHIMIA,LLY AND IMXMIMIY ZMW LAW 10 TIE CITY OF NILN1NCi011 1985 1990 1995 220_00 2005 Non- Non- Non- Non- Non- centVacant Total Vacant aeant, Total Vacant Vacant' Total Vacant scant Total Vacent Vacant j0fu1 Use . Heavy Iadu;*la1 629.5 IOU 1667,s 629.0 1038 1667.3 629.5 1038 1667.5 029.5 1038 1"74 629.5 1038 1667.5 NM 629.5 1030 1667.5-- Llabt Industrial 905.3 919.* 1824.8 90.3 919.$ 1824.8 905.3 919.$ 1824.6 903.3 919.5 1924.6 903.3 919.3 1824.8 CS 104.9 356.7 461.6 ~ Al 523.3 209.3 732.6 ~ LN Z7T:1 353.5 630.E-- Caoeerclal 764.2 224111 3005.3 907.9 2662.1 3570.3 1017.8 2984.E 4002.4 1129.7' 3312.9 4442.6 1242.7 3644.2 4886.9 Otl 346.7 1346.7 1693.4 ~ ~ CB 151.3 310.1 461.4 -- ~ AB 229.0 435.6 664.E CM 37.2 148.7 185.9-- TOTALs 2299 4198.6 6497.6 2442.7 4619.9 7062.E 2392.E 4942.1.7494.7 2664.5 5270.4 7934.9 2777.5 5601.7 8379.2 TP= 7 TOTAL ME= WM FOR OONEMAILT AND IN.DUSTRIAI T ZONED LAND IN TIC 1�11NCOWWATEII COLR r AID TINE CITY OF NILMIPGTQN f�90 1R94_ 2000 2005 Non- Non- Non- Non- Non- US2 Vacant Vacant TOTAL Vacant Vacant TOTAL Vacant Vacant TOTAL Vacant Vacant TOTAL Vacant Vacant TOTAL Nervy laduatrlal 12,837.7 7608.1 20,445.0 12837.7 7606.1 20,445.0 12637.7 7608.1 20,445.8 12,037.7 7608.1 20,445.4 12,837.7 7608.1 20,445.8 uaat la"Strlal 1449.3 2688.0 4137.9 1449.3 2688.6 4137.9 1449.3 2688.6 4t37.9 1449.3 2688.6 . 4137.9 1449.3 2688.6 4137.9 Cca.aralal 1911.1 2724.3 4235.4 1044.2 3264.6 5112.6 2076.8 3670.2 5747 2311.9 4074.1 6389.6 2547.4 4489 7036.4 TOTAL 15,7".1 13.021 20?019.1 16t131.2 13,W.3 29.696.5 16,363.4 13,966.9 30.330.1 16.598.S 14►374•$ 30.973.3 10,834.4 14.785.7 31►620.1 The present ratios of vacant/total commercially and industrially zoned acreages were assumed to remain constant from the present to the year 2005 for both the City and the unincorporated County in the calculations for Tables 5, 6, and 7. It is difficult to determine, however, what ratio of vacant/total land is optimum to provide an adequate land base for future development. The consideration of providing enough vacant land to allow for adequate market flexibilty must be balanced with other considerations to restrict the land supply In order to minimize urban sprawl, maintain land values, and promote the compatibility of adjacent land -uses. An examination of the vacant/total ratio for the different zoning districts and land -uses for the County and City reveals that, if the Heavy Industry (1-2) acreage is removed from consideration for the unincorporated County, the County's vacant/total ratio drops from .60 to .36, nearly identical to the City's ratio of .35. In light of this statistic, the City and County possibly should strive to maintain this overall ratio of .35 in future zoning decisions, although separate attention should be given concerning decisions dealing with 1-2 zoning for the County. In addition, the large vacancy rate of industrially zoned land and the anticipated slow growth in industry in the County indicates that the vacant industrially zoned land may serve as a reserve from which land could be transferred to commercial zoning as necessary and appropriate. If an attempt is made to maintain this approximate ratio of .35 for vacant/total land.for commercially and industrially zoned land in the future, several benefits may be gained. first, it appears that a reasonable supply of vacant commercial and industrial property would be available for development. Second, more efficient planning for urban services can be implemented. Third, developers and public decision -makers can make more well-informed long range decisions with regard to land development if the future land supply is fairly predictable. it must be cautioned, however, that this ratio is just one of many factors considered in any land -use decision. IV. DIRECTION OF FUTURE GROWTH The direction of future growth is dependent upon numerous factors, including economic trends, the availability of land,.and lifestyle trends. In New Hanover County, growth generally has been away from the City of Wilmington into the unincorporated areas. This trend, however, may change with revitalization of the . City and with infill development of vacant parcels within the City. A. Residential Demand _The direction'of residential development in the unincorporated County has been toward the east along the Atlantic Intra-Coastal Inland Waterway and, more recently, toward the Cape Fear River south of Wilmington, based upon a visual comparison of the difference between the 1981 and 1985 existing.land-use maps. Figure 1, which depicts the location of multi -family and performance residential development in the unincorporated County from 1981 to the present, further demonstrates the attractiveness of the water for residential living. It should be noted that the trend in housing is toward mufti -family housing, as indicated in Table 8. The sum of -annual construction of multi -family and duplex units has increased -rapidly in recent years and is approaching the number of- single family units annually constructed. This trend is possibly a function of both greater affordability of multi -family housing, and the continuing decrease 12 FIGURE 1 8 - 32 T A f � t, ` W ,i�•• �� M1rr - 1Y0n - 13 i� i 1 i �. BUILT OR APPROVED MULTIFAMILY HOBS- --_. is INGIPERFORMANCE I DEVELOPMENT IN THE UNINCORPORATED COUNTY 1981-1985 _LOCATION ANi NUMBER OF UNITS r.w Q� . 1 y 4 k NEW HANOVER COUNTY o � TABLE 8 RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION IN UNINCORPORATED NEW HANOVER COUNTY NUMBER OF DWELLING UNITS 1973 1974 '1975 1976' 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 Single -Family 832 427 420 510 613 619 648 647- 383 210 383 471 Duplex 8 2 0 2 4 .4 14 0 2 24 48 53 Multi -Family 219 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 12 40 204 260 Mobile Homes* 638. 565 457 467 461 439 426 401 593 491 506 558 r *The numbers of mobile homes, as measured by Certificates of Occupancy, represent both.new mobile home set-ups and movement of existing mobile homes from one lot to another. In household size. Mobile homes also continue to provide a significant housing opportunity for residents.. Figure 2 depicts mobile home park activity in 1984. Wilmington will continue to see a demand for multi -family development until water and sewer availability is more commonplace in the County. Other types of infill development will steadily continue with local, State and Federal sponsored programs for housing. Rehabilitation of existing housing stocks will be an Important element in the City's effort to meet demand. Areas for new construction will include the South 17th Street Extension Area, the northeastern quadrant of the City, and the Shipyard Boulevard corridor east of Carolina Beach Road. B. Non -Manufacturing and Manufacturing 'Non -manufacturing growth (e.g. service, offices, trade) has been rapid in recent years and has contributed most strongly to overall employment growth in the County. Manufacturing growth has been much less significant. These economic trends;.which have been discussed in earlier -sections of this report and in a previous technical study, "The Economy of New Hanover County", are expected to continue as the County strengthens its role as a regional economic center. A visual examination of the differences -between the 1981 and 1985 existing land -use maps indicates the following: .0) Non -manufacturing development (commercial, business, office and Institutional development) has tended to cluster at intersections and to string out in "strips" along major thoroughfares in the southern and eastern parts of the County, in association with the trends in residential development. Strip development has crept along Market Street (U.S. 17) toward Ogden -with some major shopping development at Ogden. Recent and planned development is particularly strong at the intersection of College Road-(N.C: 132) and Market Street. Commercial development will Likely grow more intense in this area and north along College Road around the two Interstate 40 interchanges -at Gordon Road and Holly Shelter Road. Development Is -increasing along Carolina Beach Road (U.S. 421) and College Road south of the City of Wilmington, with particularly Intense development near Monkey Junction. Business development pressures are also growing along Oleander Drive (.U.S. 76) and around the intersection of Oleander Drive and Eastwood Road (U.S. 74) near Wrightsville Beach. The philosophy of clustered commercial development at major intersections may be given further emphasis in the future. (2) Major manufacturing activities continue to concentrate along the northern and western boundaries of the County. Quarrying and mining industries continue to exist along the Northeast Cape Fear River on Holly Shelter Road.- General Electric dominates manufacturing along Castle Hayne Road (N.C. 133) south of Castle Hayne, and assorted manufacturing firms are . located between the Cape Fear and Northeast Cape Fear -Rivers. Industrial activity is also dominant along the Cape Fear River in association with the North Carolina State Port.-. 15 • Industrial development is also anticipated to increase near the New Hanover County Airport, particularly if a Foreign Trade Zone is designated at the Airport. It should be noted that the removal of the railroad lines extending north to Pender County and northeast from Wilmington along U. S. Highway 17, may reduce the potential for industrial growth. The City anticipates continued Industrial development in its Airport Industrial District along North 23rd Street. Additional industrial growth is expected in the recently annexed area south of the State Port and in the presently vacant industrial district between Kerr Avenue and Mercer Avenue south of Market Street. 16 F a 81 1 MOBILE HOME PAID Jet 9 ill t WM'IVM EVAI JiI_\ : IN THE. UNINGUKPU R OTr-n Ml INTY_ 19A