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HomeMy WebLinkAboutLand Use Plan Update Environmental Resources & Constraints-1991 (2) �Atq a= o_ Wilmington's-Forecast Toda and Tomorrow _ y City -of ,Wilmington Office of Planning ;. CAMA Land Use Plan Update Planner -in -Charge . . Deborah E. Sheetenhelrn , Written and Edited By, n Lucy ,C. Lynch, u . CAMA Intern Brian Huneycutt I j L "ay out 9 :and Desi n -" Deborah Haynes = September 30, 1991 _' . Revised January, 1992 „ . 1 , The preparation of this document was financed in part through a grant provided by. the North Carolina Coastal Management Program, through,funds provided by the Coastal2one. Management Act of 1972,,as'amended, which is aciministeredby the Office of Ocean and Coastal Resource Management; National Oceanic and'Atinospheric Admuustrahon. (� O CAMA and you Wilmington's Forecast Today and Tomorrow Contents Population 1 Housing 7 Local Economy 11 Community Services 21 Appendix Population Projections 27 Households 28 Facts at a Glance 29 Index Tables/Figures 31 References 33 R 0 Introduction R Wilmington's Forecast, Today and Tomorrow is one of the technical documents for the 1991 Coastal Area Management Act (LAMA) Land Use Plan Update. This document assesses the impact of growth in the Wilmington community since 1986. Iden- tifying current conditions and area trends, it focuses on the pro- jected population and infrastructure needs for the next decade. The major objective of this study is to provide background information necessary for determining policies for future land use and develop- ment in the community. IDo Ul R- Ul O Population 3 Wilmington has grown from 44,000 in 1980 to 55,530 as of April 1,1990. The average annual rate of increase is 2.62%, however a significant amount of this increase can be attributed to annexations (Area A and Area B) effective in 1985. R. Do IL 3 Fable 1 Population Estimates and Estimates 1980 1990 Wilmington 44,000 55,530 New Hanover County 103,471 120,284 North Carolina 5,874,429 6,628,637 Projections 2000 2010 Wilmington 62,365 67,994 New Hanover County 135,577 147,812 North Carolina 7,399,682 8,070,889 Sources: U.S. Bureau of the Census, North Carolina Office of State Management & Budget, and City of Wilmington Office of Plannmg. The population for Wilmington, New Hanover County, and North Carolina is noted inTablel. NewHanoverCountyhas grown at an average annual rate of 1.63% from 1980 to 1990. The projected county growth rate is 12.7% for the period 1990 to 2000. The State Data Center provides pro- jectionsatthe county and state level but not at the city level. The city's growth for the next decade can be significantly altered by annexations, changes in natural increase, migration patterns, or economic conditions. O Table 2 Rates of Growth (Cape Fear Region) Area 1970-80 1980-90 New Hanover 24.7% 16.3% Brunswick 47.7% 42.5% Columbus 8.7% -2.8% Pender 22.7% 29.6% Source: U.S. Census Bureau. Table 3 Rates of Growth (City, County & Stare) Area 1970-80 1980-90 1990-2000 Wilmington -4.7% 26.2% 12.3% New Hanover 24.7% 16.3% 12.7% North Carolina 15.5% 12.8% 11.6% Sauces: U.S. Census Bureau and NC Stare Data Center. In Table 1 the city projections for 2000 and 2010 are derived as a percentage of the county projections. If the city maintains its current46% share of the county population, it will grow for the next ten years at an average annual rate of 1.23%. For the past five years the city has grown at an average rate of less than one percent per year. The city will not maintain its current share of the county population if it continues to grow at this slower rate (For more detailed population projections, please see Table 20 in the Appendix.) 2 D I 9 no Population Characteristics Age Structure As shown in the accompanying popula- tion pyramids (Figure 1), the age distribu- tion in 1990 for Wilmington shows that the 15 to 24 year old age group is the largest accounting for 19% of the population, fol- lowed by the 25 to 34 year old age group accounting for 16%. The latter group in- cludes the peak of the Baby Boomers born in 1957. Baby Boomers are individuals bom during the Post World War popula- tion explosion,1946-1964. Since 1985 the national birth rate has been increasing. This is evident in the local population as well. The number of preschoolers (less than 5 years old) in- creased by 23.5% from 1980 to 1990. There is a small increase in the number of school age children (5 to 19 years old) of 8.2%. Young adults ages 20 to 24 years old have increased by21.7%. This canbe attributed, in part, to the increasing enrollment at the University of North Carolina at Wilmington and Cape Fear Community College. This age group extends beyond the traditional student (18 to 21 years old) to include individuals who have extended their college education, postponed their education, returned for additional educa- tion after working, or have gained employ- ment in Wilmington after graduation. The percentage of adults 35 years old and older has increased from 43% in 1980 to 47%in1990. With thematuringof theBaby Boomers (theyoungest will turn35 in 1999), this group is projected to reach 53% by 2000. This group's significance stems from its large size and economic impact. The 35 to 64 year olds represent community stability with a high rate of home owner- ship. Likewise, this group leads consumer spending with the highest share of house- holds with discretionary income. Discre- tionary income is the money people have for spending after they have paid for hous- ing, food, and other necessities. The 65 year old and older age group has increasedby41% since 1980. Thisagegroup is subject to an increased risk of having chronic health conditions and to requiring personal assistance with everyday activi- ties. The growth in the elderly population will generally mean a corresponding in- crease in demand for in -home and nursing home services. Factors contributing to the rise in this segment of the population in- clude increased life expectancy, low birth to deathratios, and the area'sincreasingpopu- larity as a place for retirement. i able 4 Aae Jtructure 1980 1990 Age Census Census 0-4 2819 3481 5-19 10493 11355 20-44 15460 22163 45-64 8980 9709 65+ 6248 8822 Total 44000 55530 Source: US. Census Bureau. 3 The working age population (15 to 64 years old) has increased by 28% since 1980. This group accounts for 66% of the total popu- lation. The working population supports both the youth and elderly population by paying for (tax base) and by providing the various service needs. Based on this de- pendency ratio, 66% of the population sup- ports 34%. As the population matures there will be more of a burden on the working age group. Figure 1 Population Pyramids 1990 Male , Female 65-74 55-64 45-54 35-44 25-34 15-24 5-14 <5 111098765432101234567891011 Percent of Population 4 Gender and Race In addition to age distribution, the popula- tion pyramid reveals gender representa- tion. The relationship between genders remains unchanged from 1980 to 1990; women comprise 54.7% of the population and men 45.3%. The genders start out rela- tively equal, fluctuate slightly back and forth until age 18, and then females out- number males at an increasing rate. The larger number of females is influenced by natural and environmental factors. Envi- ronmental factors include the predomi- nantly female college population. Longer female life expectancies are a consistent Table 5 Gender and Race natural factor. The average life expectancy atbirth in 1987was 74.9 years, 78.3 years for females and 71.5 years for males. The racial mix of Wilmington has changed slightly. The African American population has increased in numbers but decreased in overall percentage of the population. Afri- can American minorities comprise 34% of the population. This is almost three times the national representation of 12%. Ameri- can Indians, Asians, and other races repre- sent 1% of the population. Nationally they account for less than 4%. 1980 1990 Census Census RACE White 26468 60.2% 36059 64.9% Black 17264 39.2% 18815 33.9% Other 268 0.6% 656 1.2% GENDER Male 19942 45.3% 25150 45.3% Female 24058 54.7% 30380 54.7% Source. U.S. Census Bureau. 5 Housing Housing Characteristics Smaller and less traditional households were major trend of the 1980s. During the 1980s, Wilmington established 6,139 new households, an increase of'35 percent. At the same time, the total population grew by 26 percent. Households can only grow faster than the population when average household size decreases.. Changes in household composition and childbearing patterns have a direct impact on average household and family size. Wilmington has a relatively small house- hold size (2.26 persons per household in 1990). Thirty-three percent of households include one person and thirty-five percent are made up of two people. Household size has b een decreasing steadily since 1960. This can be attributed to trends toward fewer children per family, delayed childbearing, more single -parent families, and fewer females of childbearing age. Likewise, household size is affected as households go through the life cycle. Household composition changes as chil- dren leave home and surviving spouses live alone. The two main types of households are fami- lies and nonfamilies. A family household has at least two people who are related by blood, marriage, or adoption. Families ac- count for 59% of all households in Wilmington, compared to 71% nationally. The fastest growing group is nonfamilies, householders living alone or with nonrelated individuals only. From 1980 to 1990 nonfamily households increased by 56% to a total of 9,654 households. Family and non -family households can be subdivided into female -headed households and elderly -headed households. For more information regarding these categories, please see Tables 23 and 24 in the Appendix. The household is the basic purchasing/con- sumption unit for food, utilities, major ap- Table 6 Average Household Size (Persons per Household) 1970 1980 1990 2000 Wilmington, NC 2.93 2.45 2.26 2.22 New Hanover County 3.08 2.69 2.43 2.38 North Carolina 3.24 2.80 2.54 2.34 United States 3.14 2.76 2.63 2.39 Sources: NC State Data Center and U.S. Census Bureau. 7 a planes, and most other products and ser- vices. "Households headed bypeople aged 35 to 54 spend more than other households on every major product and service cat- egory except health care."' In Wilmington this age group accounts for thirty-one per- cent of all households. The increase in households overall and the increase in dual earner households indicates a period of consumer affluence. Tenure & Vacancy Wilmington has a higher percentage of oc- cupied housing units than New Hanover County, predominantly because of the sea- sonal beach communities located in the county. An increase in vacancy rate accompanied with a decrease in building permit activity Table 8 Value of Construction Value of New Construction in Wilmington Authorized by Building permits 1985-1990 in 1982 Dollars (000) ilk and home sales, indicates that Wilmington'shousingmarketissaturated. For the period 1985-1990, residential build- ing permit activity peaked in 1989 with 925 0 new residential units permitted. This com- pares to a lull in 1990 with 211 new residen- n Table 7 Housing Characteristics 1970 1980 1990 Total 17,223 19,212 26,469 Occupied 15,639 17,418 23,557 Vacancy Rate 9.2% 9.3% 11.0% Source: U.S. Census Bureau Note: For 1970 & 1980 occupied housing units include year-round housing units only, for 1990 occupied includes all housing units. Total housing units account for year-round and seasonal housing. 1985 1986 1987 1998 1989 1990 Residential $ 25,371 $ 21,881 $17,044 $ 8,381 $ 26,585 $ 8,925 Non- Residential $11,038 $ 23,081 $14,769 $ 33,619 . $ 31,354 $14,932 Total $ 36,490 $ 44,962 $ 31,813 $ 42,000 $ 57,939 $ 23,857 Source: New Hanover County Planning Department, Construction Activity Report, March, 1990. 'Margaret Ambry,'The Age of Spending," American Demographics, (November, 1990), p.16. M. q a 0 it 0 U 0 IN Table 9 Tenure and Vacancy 1990 Occupied 23,557 Owner Occupied 11,099 Renter Occupied 12,458 Vacant 2,912 Source: U.S. Census Bureau. tial units permitted. Pending economic recovery and absorption of existing units, the market activity should increase but probably will not reach the peak of the 80's building boom for some time. Homeownership rates increaseby age until the retirement years. For example, 24% of all 25 to 34 year old householders occupy their own homes compared to 69% of all householders age 55 to 64 years old. Home ownership rates drop for householders who Table 10 Tenure by Age of Householder are 75 years old and older. Many elderly peopleleave their homesbecause theyare unable or unwilling to maintain them. According to the U.S. Census, one-fourth of the city's housing stock was over 40 yearsoldin1980. (Figures for 1990 are not available at this time). Many residential areas are composed of long-established neighborhoods with houses built in the early to mid-1900's and in the historic districts structures date back to the mid- 1800's. In 1990 these neighborhood char- acteristics are reflected by the large per- centage of single family housing (57% of all housing) and by the high occupancy rate of single family housing (92% occu- pied; 67% owner occupied). Properties which are located within the city's 1945 corporate limits provide his- toric and architectural character as well as challenges. While much of the city's older housing is well preserved and maintained, Occupied Percent Owner Occupied Percent 15-24 Years 2,486 10.6 117 1.0 25-34 Years 4,755 20.2 1,157 10.4 35-44 Years 4,376 18.6 2,062 18.6 45-54 Years 2,858 12.1 1,673 15.1 55-64 Years 3,003 12.7 2,074 18.7 65-74 Years 3,539 15.0 2,439 22.0 75+ Years 2,540 10.8 1,577 14.2 Total 23,557 100.0 11,099 100.0 Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 9 there are several areas suffering from substandard housing conditions and inadequate infrastructure. These areas are being addressed through the city's efforts to restore neighborhood quality. Wilmington is an entitlement city for Community Development Block Grant (CDBG) funds. The city uses its allotment to rehabilitate or demolish substan- dard housing and to improve streets, sidewalks, and utilities in targeted redevelopment areas. In 1987 the City and local Housing Authority created Wilmington Housing Finance & Development,Inc., a nonprofit corporation intended to address the housing needs of low and moderate income families. WHFD uses a variety of public and private funds to finance housing rehabilitation and new construction. During the past three fiscal years, program accomplishments include 152 units with loan amounts of $5,233,713. In 1991 the Department of Housing & Neighborhoods was created to emphasize Wilmington's residential neighborhoods. The department includes the Code Enforcement Division and the Housing, Development & Rehabilitation Division of the former Planning & Develop- ment Department. The department will utilize a comprehensive approach to deter neigh- borhood decline by consolidating code enforcement activities within a single division. The housing division will focus activities on the improvement of housing opportunities for residents by preparing neighborhood plans, rehabilitating owner -occupied houses and providing financial assistance to home buyers. 10 Ill h� N Local Economy Wilmington accounts for 32 square miles of New Hanover County, which is only 185 square miles. New Hanover Countymakes up the WilmingtonMetropolitanStatistical Area (MSA). Therefore, it is difficult to separate Wilmington from New Hanover County. Muchof the infonnationpresented in this section will be at the county level. Despite the Wilmington MSA's small size, it has a strong, diverse economy. Wilmfngton's location on the Cape Fear River and near the Atlantic Ocean heavily influences its development and economic wellbeing. Local amenities, historical char- acter, and coastal attractions entice busi- nesses and tourists to the area. A vital economic asset is the local transportation network providing access to intrastate, in- terstate, and international markets. The State Port, regional airport, and major high- way network give Wilmington its regional status. Table 11 Per Capita Personal Income Standard of Living Wilmington seems to have a high standard of living which can be justified by a high level of personal income. Two measures are listed in the following tables, Per capita personal income and Median family in- come. Table 11 depicts per capita personal income for the county in comparison to the state and to the nation. Per capita income is the average amount of money per person in an area, regardless of age or labor force status. The Wilmington MSA exceeds the state in per capita per- sonal income and is higher than any county in the surroundingregfon. The high level of personal income is indicative of the pre- dominantly white-collar labor force, such as skilled industry employees, government personnel, professionals, and small busi- ness owners. Area 1980 1985 1989 New Hanover County $8,320 11,919 15,896 North Carolina $7,999 11,658 15,287 United States $9,919 13,896 17,594 Source: U.S. Bureau of Econontic Analysis. a Table 12 provides a comparison of median income (for a family of four) for the county, state, and nation. Median income repre- sents the level of income at which 50% of the families in the area are above and 50% arebelow. New HanoverCounty'smedian income shows steady growth. In 1991, New Hanover tied the state with an esti- mated median income of $34,000. Table 12 Median Income Consumer affluence is generally consid- ered positive, but it can inflate the cost of living. Housing costs and the general cost of living tend to be higher in Wilmington than the surroundingareas, excludingbeach communities. Table 13 compares Wilmington to other major cities in the state. Area 1980 1989 1991 New Hanover County $17,200 30,300 34,000 North Carolina NA 30,200 34,000 Metropolitan 33,600 37,600 Nonmetropolitan 26,100 29,800 United States $20,500 34,000 38,000 Source: HUD Office of Economic Affairs, Economic & Market Analysis Division. Table 13 Cost of Living Misc. Composite Health Goods & Index Grocery Housing Utilities Transp. Care Services Asheville 1013 99.1 97.5 114.0 100.8 85.2 104.6 Burlington 98.2 94.2 1025 116.7 88.8 89.6 96.5 Charlotte 101.1 95.6 104.1 97.4 99.7 107.9 102.3 Fayetteville 98.9 97.1 90.1 1152 93.4 90.1 104.7 Hickory 101.8 97.0 1083 99.1 117.3 81.7 98.7 Raleigh 102.4 96.5 106.8 113.4 93.4 104.4 101.8 WILNIINGTON 1005 95.6 1053 110.8 99.4 923 98.5 Winston Salem 102.8 94.5 1072 106A 97.1 97.1 106.8 Source: Cost of Living Index, American Chamber of Commerce Researchers Association, Second Quarter 1990. q I 11 12 According to the American Chamber of Commerce Researchers Association's Cost of Living Index for the second quarter of 1990, Wilmington has an overall cost of living of 100.5 compared to an average for all U.S. cities of 100.0. The composite index is derived from weighted categories: groceries (17%), housing (22%), utilities (11%), transportation (13%), health care (7%), and miscellaneous goods and services (30%). Despite the high income levels overall, there are a significant number of individuals who have low to moderate incomes. By HUD definition this means that moderate incomes are 50% to 80% of median income and low incomes are below 50% of median income. Most of these people live within the inner city. Many live in public housing, utilize public transit, and/orreceive some form of publicassistance. In198058%of city residentswere considered to be in low or moderate income households. While the 1990 Census data on poverty are not yet available, the poverty thresholds which will beused for the 1990 Census poverty data are available. The average weighted threshold Ofor a family of four is $12,675. This compares to the 1980 Census threshold of $7,412 for the same family size. Table 14 Poverty Status Poverty Status - pending release of 1990 Census data. I 13 Civilian Labor Force Historically, Wilmington's labor force has been characterized by low unemployment, but like therestof the country, this area hasbeen affected by the economicrecession. Benchmark data indicates a labor force of 68,140 people and an unemployment rate of 5.9% for 1991, up from 4.2% in 1990. Figure 3 shows New Hanover's labor force for the period 1980 to 1990. Unfortunately, these figures do not reflect the number of chronically unemployed. Wilmington hasan estimated 830 discouraged workers (age 18 to 34) based on recent study by the Mayor's Task Force on Unemployment. "Discouraged workers are defined as unemployed persons who are not actively seeking work."Z There are an adequate number of entry level job openings to meet the needs of most of these individuals. Improving the economic well-being of the chronically unemployed is difficult because it requires more than the availability of a job. Figure 2 Civilian Labor Force N ll.......,e.!`.,....w IA.. .... d...., 11 JVW {.G. li//yIf V�'//iL/Y JL{.W M� rV//YIYJJWI/. =Mayor's Task Force on Unemployment, Final Report, June,1991. 14 O Industry Employment by Place of Work 0 Labor Force statistics characterize the residents of the area with respect to employment or unemployment. Work Force statistics characterize the number and type of jobs available in the area. Members of the New Hanover County labor force may have jobs outside the county. Likewise, the county's work force may include residents of other counties who commute into New Hanover County for employment. Therefore, work force statistics rather than labor force statistics are used to analyze industrial growth trends within the county. IN In reviewing the work force data for the past ten year period, it is evident that total employment is rapidly increasing. Illustrated in Figure 3, non -manufacturing employment dominates the industrial work force. Manufacturing employment remains relatively constant in absolute numbers, but is declining in relative share of the work force. 15 New Hanover County's total industry em- ployment (manufacturing and non -manu- facturing) has experienced significant growth between 1979 and 1989. Total in- dustry employment has increased by 40%, from 43,580 workers in 1979 to 60,840 work- ers in 1989. Non -manufacturing employ- ment has increased from 76% of total indus- trial employment in 1979 to 84% of indus- trial employment in 1989. Manufacturing has lost status from 24% in 1979 to 16% in 1989. Because of the high price and scarcity of large tracts of undeveloped land in New Hanover County, it is unlikely that any new large manufacturing plant will locate here. However, the large quantity of land at rela- tively low prices in neighboring Pender and Brunswick counties should attract indus- Figure 4 Retail Sales (Fiscal Year July -June) try. New Hanover Countycanbenefit from this regional growth by providing support services to nearby industry. Manufacturing Manufacturing has experienced frequent fluctuations in growth. Overall it has de- clined from 10,480 workers in 1979 to 9,450 workers in 1989. The chemical industry is the leading manufacturing industry with 2,040jobsin 1989, or22% of manufacturing employment. Traditional industries, such as food, textiles, lumber and wood, have not been as fortunate. These industries reflect the general trend of decreasing work forces attributed to economic and techno- logical factors. 16 I Non -Manufacturing The non -manufacturing sector has experi- enced a positive growth trend indicating a shift to a more service -oriented local economy. The trade, government, and ser- vice industries are the three dominant non - manufacturing industries accounting for 63% of total employment. This sector's trend of steady growth is expected to con- tinue as Wilmington continues to grow as a regio nal service and trade center f or south- eastern North Carolina. Wilmington offers a considerable amount of variety in retail activity influencing 82% of New Hanover County's total retail sales. This variety attracts shoppers from smaller communities in the surrounding area. Wilmington's regional influence extends to the surrounding eight county area. Work force data includes industrial em- ployment (manufacturing and non -manu- facturing), agricultural employment, and all othernon-agricultural employment. Ag- ricultural and all othernon-agricultural em- ployment include self-employed workers, unpaid family workers, and domestic work- ers in private households. Table 15 gives the annual average employment by major Standard Industrial Classification and the corresponding percentage of total employ- ment. The Employment Security Commis- sion reported a total of 66,360 jobs in New Hanover County in 1989; 60,840 or 92% were considered industrial (manufactur- ing or non -manufacturing). 0 Table 15 Industry Employment (New Hanover county,1989) 11 I Number Work Average Wage Total Employed Force per worker Wages M i$) M Construction 18,640 6.40 & Mining 3,390 5.92 28,382 0.10 Manufacturing 9,450 14.24 25,997 22.2 Wholesale &Retail Trade 17,630 2657 10,364 13.8 Finance, Insurance, & Real Estate 2,340 3.53 20,788 4.4 Service & Miscellaneous 12,860 19.38 16,554 17.8 Trans., Communications & Public Utilities 3,590 5.41 22,178 7.0 Government 11,040 16.64 22,229 22.0 Other Non Agricultural 5,230 7.88 Agriculture 290 0.44 11,228 0.40 Total 66,360 100.0 100.0 O Note: Employment and wages insured wider the North Carolina Employment Security Law. Estimated to represent 92% of all employment. 17 I Civilian Employment and Related Wages Although earnings do not include all sources of income, wages are an indication of potential purchasing power. The average annual wage per worker for 1989 was $18,488. Table 15 displays the amount of influence each local employment sector has in the total amount of wages earned. In 1989 manufacturing and government made the largest contribution to total wages. Because manufacturing is declining as an employer, its important to note the relationship between the size of the manufacturing sector in proportion to its percentageof total earnings. Representing 14% of the total work force, manufacturing earned 22% of the total wages in 1989. On the other hand, retail trade workers representing approximately 23% of the total work force generated only 14% of wages. It would require 25 retail workers to generate the same wages as one manufacturing v orker. Even though retail trade and services willbe the dominant factors in the local economy, it does not appear that the growth in employment will be able to create an equal growth rate in wages. Room Occupancy Tax serves as an indicator of the volume of tourism. According to figures compiled by the Cape Fear Coast Convention and Visitors Bureau, room tax receipts for the year ending June 1991 were up nearly 14%, compared to the same period last year. Based on 1988 travel expenditures, thebenefit of tour- ism to New Hanover County was more than $252 million, ranking us seventh in Table 16 New Hanover County North Carolina. Industry Mix New Hanover County has the largest con- centration of industries in the Services, Re- tail Trade, and Construction sectors. This reflects the state's major industries as well. However, the state has a lower percentage of service and miscellaneous industries. Room Occupancy Tax Annual Percent Year Collections Increase ($) M 1986/87 691,019 1987/88 933,705 35.12 1988/89 1,049,304 1238 1989/90 1,181,082 12.56 1990/91 1,144,630 13.85 0 Despite the low wages ut services overall, t includes health, legal, education, technical, and other professional services which have higher wages. Wilmington should encourage these types of serviceindustries to help offset losses in manufacturing wages. Figures 5 and 6 illustrate the concentration of businesses in each classification. 0 18 0 Figure 5 New Hanover County Industry Composition (1989) Ag., Forestry, & Fishing Mining 1.66 % 0.08 % Service & Misc. 35.18 % Retail Trade 2533 % Figure 6 North Carolina Industry Composition (1989) 2.38 % Transportation, Comm., & Public Utilities 4A7 % 4.57 % _Wholesale Trade 5.81 % Finance, Insurance, & Real Estate 8.00 % Construction 12.44 % Wholesale Trade 9.53 % Retail Trade ������'��'�� Construction 23.86 % 13.08 % 19 Community Services Continued growth will affect the demand for existing community facilities and ser- vices. The following section reviews the impact of growth on the basic community services provided by the city. Water System The CityofWilmington owns and operates its water system. It is the only water system in the county which utilizes surface water as the source of supply. Raw water is pumped from the Cape Fear River at King's Bluff, about 23 miles northwest of the city. The pumping station, situated above Lock Table 17 Future Water Requirements # 1, is free from possible salt water contami- nation from the lower reaches of the river estuary. Raw water is pumped from the King's Bluff Station to the Sweeney Filtra- tion Plant. The Sweeney Water Treatment Plant is lo- cated in the northwest section of the city on theeasternbankof theNortheast Cape Fear River. It is a conventional surface water treatment plant with a capacity of 15 mil- lion gallons per day (mgd). The average daily demand is between 9 mgd and 10 mgd. However, the maximum demand is over 14 mgd and could exceed the plant's capacity in the next few years. Average Maximum Year Day Demand Day Demand (Millions of gallons per day) Present 1988 89 14.2 Service 1993 11.3 18.0 Area 1998 12.8 20.3 2003 13.8 21.9 2028 16.5 25.7 Build Out 19.7 32.0 Expanded 1998 8.9 14.2 Service 1993 12.9 20.4 Area 1998 16.4 25.8 2003 19.4 30.8 2028 28.1 44.7 Build Out 41.0 69.0 Source: The Water System Master Plan report prepared by Black and Veatch. Inc.. March 1989. 21 In response to tougher federal water qual- ity requirements and projected water de- mand, the city has undertaken an upgrade and expansion of the Sweeney WaterTreat- ment Plant. On March 19, 1991, the resi- dents of Wilmington approved a $38 mil- lion Water Bond Referendum. The bonds will fund an upgrade of the existing water plant and a 10 mgd expansion of the plant, the extension of a 15 mgd raw water line parallel with U.S. Highway 421 and cross- ing underneath the Cape Fear River; and the constructionof across-townfeedermain from the plant to 30th Street. Construction is scheduled for 1993-95. Sanitary Sewer System The municipal sanitary sewerage collec- tion system consists of 37 lift stations and more than 250 miles of pipe. The wastewa- ter flow is carried to either the James Loughlin (Northside) Wastewater Treat- ment Plant or the M'Kean Maffitt (Southside) Wastewater Treatment Plant. At both of these facilities, the wastewater receives secondary treatment before it is discharged into the Cape Fear River. The M'Kean Maffitt (Southside) WWTP is located on a 36 acre site on River Road near the State Port Authority adjacent to the Cape Fear River. Its capacity is 12 mgd; with average flows greater than 7mgd. No expansion of this facility is planned at the present time. The James A. Loughlin Wastewater Treat- ment Plan is located on a 21 acre site on North 23rd Street near the New Hanover County Airport. The Northside plant has a capacityfor 8 million gallons per day (mgd). This upgrade was completed in March, 1991. The average daily flow to the plant is 5.35 mgd. The projected demand for treat- ment capacity of this plant is 8 mgd by the year 2008. In addition, the New Hanover County sewer project may require 12 mgd treatment capacity for a total flow of ap- proximately 20 mgd. The Upgrade/Expansion Evaluation con- ducted by Black & Veatch recommends a two phase expansionof theNorthside treat- ment facility to 20 mgd. The first phase, in approximately 5 years, will be a 6 mgd expansion to increase the plant treatment capacity to 14 mgd. The second expansion is estimated to be required 10 years after thefirstexpansion. This expansion(6mgd) will increase the total plant to a 20 mgd treatment facility. Solid Waste Disposal TheSolid WasteManagementDivisionpro- vides residential waste collection, carrion service, bulky item pick-up, collection of recyclables, and refuse collection for busi- nesses using 90-gallon rollout carts. Metal items are sold for scrap. Burnable refuse is taken to the New Hanover County incin- eratorcogenerationsteamplant. The incin- erated ash and unburnable refuse is taken to the county sanitary landfill. To reduce the amount of refuse taken to the landfill, the city began a recycling program in 1990. During the first year of operation, 8977 residents recycled 27.5 tons of alumi- num, 401.7 tons of glass,105.5 tons of plas- tic, 619.2 tons of newspaper, and 3638.3 tons of yardwaste. 22 0 Transportation The Transportation Advisory Committee has authorized an update of the 1985 Thorough- fare Plan. Data collection for this update began in November 1990, and the project is expected to be completed in 1992. For detailed information on the transportation network, please see the Transportation Section of the Area Service Guide. Table 18 compares traffic count data for the city's major roads for 1985 and 1990. Table 18 Traffic Counts Location VPD Date VPD Date Change Carolina Beach Road Between Ivey & Momingside 24,999 4/86 24,702 5/90 -1.19 Between Raleigh & Sunnyvale 22,453 4/86 27,663 8/90 23.20 College Road Between Randall & University 37,067 10/86 40,659 1/90 9.69 Between Oleander & Peachtree 36,070 1086 37,080 6/90 2.80 Dawson Street Between 15th & 16th 17,152 11/86 20,328 1/90 18.52 Market Street Between 18th & 17th 22,549 4/86 24,049 2/90 6.65 Oleander Drive Between College & 42nd 27,131 1/86 28,458 5/90 4.89 Between Fordham & Independence 26,113 9/86 30,620 9/90 17.26 Seventheenth Street Between Glen Meade & Medical N/A 28,551 6/90 Between Marsteller & Wright 13,342 12/86 11,9W 1/90 -10.28 Shipyard Blvd. Between Independence & 17th 28,112 1086 31,002 5/90 10.28 Wrightsville Ave. Between Colonial & Windsor 9,492 12/86 24,978 1/90 163.15 Between Dawson & Spofford 18,503 12/86 18,663 1/90 0.86 Between 53rd & Huntington 7,891 10/86 8,571 7/90 8.62 Note: VPD (Vehicles per day) Source: City of Wilmington, Traffic Engineering Deparonent. 23 Police Protection The Wilmington Police Department pro- vides 24 hour-aday motorized preventa- tive patrol and specialized patrols includ- ing the K-9, walking, mounted, park and neighborhood patrols. Officers duties in- clude crime prevention, drug prevention education, criminal investigations, vice/ narcotics investigations, emergency com- munications, property and evidence con- trol, crime scene processing, supervision of community service workers, and parking enforcement. For FY 1991-92, the Wilmington Police Department has 189 authorized positions. Performance for the WPD is measured by fluctuations in reported serious crime (Table 19), and by percentages of the crimes that are cleared (solved, unfounded, etc.). The long term trend in the rise of serious crime continued in 1990. After a slight decrease in 1989, serious crime increased seven per- cent. This isless than theprojected increase in North Carolina. The Police Department Table 19 Crime Rates (1985-1990 maintained the 31 % clearance rate for seri- ous crimes which is above the state (25%) and national (21%) rates. The Institute for Law and Justice conducted a Manpower Allocation Study of the Wilmington Police Department. The pri- mary objective of this study was to review the operational procedures, work load, and response times for the patrol and investi- gative divisions and make recommenda- tions for improvements. The outcome of these recommendations should determine if more manpower is necessary or if reallo- cation can increase efficiency. Fire Protection The WilmingtonFireDepartment protects the community from fire and hazardous material related emergencies and mini- mizes the loss of life and property from emergency incidents through prevention, Classification 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 Murder 11 7 6 5 5 Rape 30 28 37 21 55 Robbery 97 202 186 201 192 Assault 202 240 238 278 392 Burglary 1453 1729 1844 1745 1741 Larceny 3483 3818 3805 3624 3857 Auto Theft 267 273 262 272 349 Total 5543 6297 6378 6146 6591 Source: Wilmington Police Department. 24 0 0 inspections, suppression, and investiga- tions. The department enforces the fire codes and code compliance for both new construction and existing businesses. Except for a mutual aid agreement with area volunteer fire departments, the de- partment limits it fire protection service to those areas within the Wilmington city lim- its. The department has established a re- sponse time standard of four minutes after the initial request -for -aid. To accomplish this goal, the department maintains six fire stations strategically dispersed throughout the city. The Fire Department has a personnel roster of 138 employees. By adding manpower and creating a special response squad, the department has maintained a Class 2 fire protection rating. Plans to meet future demand include building anew fire station in the Pine Valley area. The station will be necessary to maintain the 1 1/2 mile re- sponse area based on the density of con- struction and hydrant locations. This ex- penditure is included in the Capital Invest- ment Plan,1992-2001. New Hanover County Schools The New Hanover County School District n includes the entire county. There is not a fL J( separate school district for the area within the Wilmington city limits. 0 The number of school age children (ages 5 -19) hasdecreased 5.2% from26,030 in 1980 to 24,678 in 1990. The number of preschoolers (less than 5 years old) has increased by 10%. In five years, the in- crease in preschoolers may push enroll- ment above the 20,000 mark. Table 20 shows school enrollment for the number of pupils in public schools on the 10thday of the school year. In the last seven years there has been a slight fluctuation in the public school enrollment. Enrollment appears to be on the rise. The figures in Table 20 do not account for private schools. The school system has developed a long range plan Moving Toward the Year 2000: A Strategic Plan toMakea Difference. The school administration is condu sting a comprehen- sive assessment of the current facilities: systemwide to determine any future needs. The recommendations from this assessment are forthcoming. Table 20 Public School Enrollment (New Hanover County) Date Students 1985/86 19,318 1986/87 19,450 198788 19,252 1988/89 19,041 1989/90 19,047 1990/91 19,166 1991/92 19,382 Source: New Hanover County Board of Education. K C N CL a a 0 Appendix Population Projections To determine the present rate of growth, it is necessary to review the growth patterns for the previous decade. Table 21 Annual Population Growth (City ofWibmington) Year Population Change 1980 44,216 1981 43,506 -1.61% 1982 43,942 1.00% 1983 45,085 2.60% 1994 50,733 12.53% 1985 53,789 6.02% 1986 54,967 2.19% 1987 55,458 0.89% 1988 55,755 0.54% 1989 55,106 -1.16% 1990 55,712 1.10% Source: North Carolina Office of State Budget and Management Note: Estimates as of July 1st each year. Note: Population figures for 1984 and 1985 reflect annexations of Area A and Area B. Listed below are population projections based on low, moderate, and high growth rates. These projections account for natural increase and net migrations. Table 22 Annual Growth Rates Year .75% 1.0% 1.25% 1990 55,530 55530 55,530 1991 55,946 56,085 56aU 1992 56,366 56,646 56,927 1993 56,789 57,213 57,639 1994 57,215 57,785 58,359 1995 57,644 58,363 59,088 1996 58,076 58,946 59,827 1997 58,512 59,536 60,575 1998 58,951 60,131 . 61,332 1999 59,393 60,732 62,099 2000 59,838 61,340 62,875 27 Households Two subtypes of households are female -headed households and elderly -headed house- holds. These households can be either family or nonfamily households. Table 23 Female -headed Households 1980 1990 Family No husband present 3,180 4,236 With related children 1,956 2,881 No related children 1,224 1,355 Nonfamily Householder Living Alone — 4,851 Householder Not Living Alone — 910 All Female -headed Households — 9,997 Table Z4 Elderly -headed Households (Headed by uuuwauals bJ+) 1980 1990 Family (Gender not specified) 2,093 2,901 Nonfamily 2,265 3,178 Female -headed Households — 2,581 Female -headed Households living Alone 2,522 Male -headed Households — 597 Male -headed Households living Alone 551 All Elderly -headed Households 4,358 6,079 Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 28 11 a 1990 Facts at a Glance D • Female -headed Households account for 42% of all households in Wilmington. • Elderly -headed Households account for 26% of all households in Wilmington. • Female -headed Family Households account for 31% of all family households in aWilmington. • Elderly -headed Family Households account for 21% of all family households in DWilmington. • Nonfamily, Elderly, Female -headed Householders account for 26% of all n Nonfamily, Female -headed Householders. • Nonfamily, Elderly, Female -headed Householders living alone account for 52% of all Nonfamily, Female -headed Householders living alone. Do Note: These are independent statistics and do not add to a total of any subtype. 29 �./ O � � �� Q � � � � � � � �� © © Q � � E Index Tables Table 1 Population Estimates and Projections 1 Table 2 Rates of Growth (Cape Fear Region) 1 Table 3 Rates of Growth (City, County, and State) 2 Table 4 Age Structure 3 Table 5 Gender and Race 5 Table 6 Average Household Size 7 Table 7 Housing Characteristics 8 Table 8 Value of Construction 8 Table 9 Tenure and Vacancy 9 Table 10 Tenure by Age of Householder 9 Table 11 Per Capita Personal Income it Table 12 Median Income 12 Table 13 Cost of Living Chart 12 Table 14 Poverty Status 13 Table 15 Industry Employment by Place of Work 17 Table 16 Room Occupancy Tax 18 Table 17 Future Water Requirements 21 Table 18 Traffic Counts 23 Table 19 Crime Rates 24 Table 20 School Enrollment 25 Appendix Table 21 Annual Population Growth 27 Table 22 Population Projections 27 Table 23 Female -Headed Households 28 Table 24 Elderly -Headed Households 28 Figures Figure 1 Population Pyramids 4 Figure 2 Civilian Labor Force 14 Figure 3 Work Force Data 15 Figure 4 Retail Sales 16 Figure 5 Industry Composition New Hanover County 19 Figure 6 Industry Composition North Carolina 19 31 N V C �. N v.. N LAC 0 Q © C.� V (� References D I i� Ambry, Margaret, "The Age of Spending", American Demographics, (November,1990). American Chamber of Commerce Researchers Association, Cost of Living Index, Second Quarter 1990. Black and Veatch, James A. Loughlin WWTP Upgrade/Expansion Evaluation, Raleigh, July,1988. Camp, Dresser & McKee, Review of City Water System Master Plan Recommendations, Raleigh, October,1989. Cape Fear Coast Convention and Visitors Bureau, Room Occupancy Tax Collections for New Hanover County,1991. City of Wilmington, Adopted Budget 1991-92, June,1991. City of Wilmington, Capital Investment Plan 1992-2001, January,1991. City of Wilmington, Mayor's Task Force on Unemployment, Final Report, June,1991. City of Wilmington, Office of Planning, "Population and Economic White Papers;' 1988. Employment Security Commission, Civilian Labor Force Estimates for North Carolina, 1989, May,1991. Employment Security Commission, Employment and Wages in North Carolina,1989. New Hanover County Board of Education, Public School Enrollment, 1991. New Hanover County Building Inspections Office, Monthly Building Permit Reports,1990. New Hanover County Planning Department, The Economy of New Hanover County,1986 CAMA Land Use Plan Update, Report #2, August,1985. 33 a North Carolina Office of State Budget and Management, North Carolina Municipal Population,1980-1990. North Carolina Office of State Budget and Management, North Carolina Population Projections:1988-2010, Raleigh, July, 1988. a �, J University of North Carolina at Wilmington, Institutional Research, gender representation of the student population. U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Census Tracts, 1980 Census of Population and Housing, June,1983. U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Metropolitan Housing Characteristics,1980 Census of Housing, October, 1983. Q (� U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Characteristics of the Population,1990. U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Per Capita Income,1989. a U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), Median Family Income,1991. a 34