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HomeMy WebLinkAboutComprehensive Plan 1997-2010-1998Wilmington - New Hanover County Comprehensive Plan 1997-2010 November 1998 . 10 Wilmington - New Hanover County Draft Comprehensive Plan 1997-2010 November 1998 • 0 Table of Contents I. Executive Summary II. Introduction III. Issues IV. Planning Process V. Vision and Goals VI. Natural Resources Element VII. Land Use and Urban Design Element VIII. Transportation Element IX. Community Infrastructure Element X. Housing and Economic Development Element A. Housing B. Economy C. Historic Preservation XI. Storm and Natural Hazard Element XII. Land Classification XIII. Appendix - Technical Reports A. Survey of Registered Voters B. Population C. Environmental Resources and Constraints D. Existing Land Use E. Transportation Planning,- General Information F. Community Infrastructure G. Future Land Use H. Hurricane Mitigation and Reconstruction I. Housing J. Economy i 0 Acknowledgements Steering Committee John Jefferies, Steering Committee Chairman 971mington New Hanover County Comprehensive Plan William Caster, Chairman, County Commissioners Hamilton Hicks, Mayor, City Council Buzz Birzenieks, County Commissioner Harper Peterson, City Councilman Kirk Davy, County Planning Board Glenn Richardson, Chairman, City Planning Commission Wes Beckner, President, Chamber of Commerce Carlton Fisher, Wilmington Regional Association of Realtors Johnnie Henagan, Council of Neighborhoods Association Tilghman Herring, Historic District Commission Edward Higgins, Board of Education Jim Hunter, At -Large Representative Jim Kenny, President, Home Builders Association Gerry McCants, At -Large Representative Linda Pearce, Elderhaus Representative Ernest Puskas, Castle Hayne Area Representative Tracy Skrabal, Environmental Representative Debbie Keck, Board of Education, participant ii • • Acknowledgements New Hanover County Board of Commissioners William A. Caster, Chairman Robert G. Greer, Vice Chairman Buzz Birzenieks Ted Davis, Jr. Charles R. Howell Planning Board Members Rodney Harris, Chairman Kirk Davy, Vice Chairman McKinley Dull Joyce Fernando John Galarde Michael Keenan James E. Wolle New Hanover County Planning Department Dexter Hayes, Director Patrick Lowe, Assistant Director Chris O'Keefe, Planner Wanda Coston, Planner Sam Burgess, Planner Pete Avery, Senior Planner Phoebe Saavedra, Administrative Secretary Grant D. Gore, Graphics Technician Bert Hatchell, Intern Support Staff Mike Arkinson, GIS Manager Bruce Walker, GIS Analyst Former Interns Elizabeth Adams Mike Gutekunst Katheryn Quinelly Kim Wolfer Facilitator Robert Gerlach, President, The VTA Group Todd Gerlach, Facilitator Wimington New Hanover County Comprehensive Plan iii Wilmington City Council Hamilton E. Hicks, Jr., Mayor Katherine B. Moore, Mayor Pro Tern Frank S. Conlon J. C. Hearne, II Harper W. Peterson Jim Quinn Charles H. Rivenbark, Jr. Wilmington Planning Commission Glenn Richardson, Chairman Jack Watkins, Vice Chairman Frank Hamilton, III Donald M. Hand Rose Ann Mack Elaine Selden City of Wilmington, Development Services Department, Planning Division Mike Hargett, Assistant City Manager / Interim Planning Manager Mark Zeigler, Planner Bill Austin, Transportation Planner John Ponder Transportation Planning Engineer Dorothy Chavious, Department Secretary Deborah Haynes, Graphics Technician Support Staff Mellisa Allcox, Development Mgmt. Intern Bettie Bisbee, WHFD, Inc. Program Manager Kaye Graybeal, Historic Preservation Planner Chad Ives, GIS Analyst Mark Karet, Community Development Manager Robert Lucas, WHFD, Inc. Administrator Eleanor Price, Historic Preservation Consultant Fred Reisz, Housing Services Counselor Jim Sahlie, GIS Systems Analyst Andrea Surratt, Development Mgmt. Manager Gaines Townsend, Comm. Develop. Planner Former Staff Arcelia Wicker, Sr., Director of Planning Ockert Fourie, Contract Planner Jayson Ward, Planning Technician Paul D. Harsch, hrtem Mark Sudduth, Intern Zachary Taylor, Intern Acknowledgements Wilmington New Hanover County 0 nowComprehensive Plan The Steering Committee and Planning staff thank all public participants. Elected Officials Planning Board and Commission Citizens in the Public Forums Citizens in the public Sub -Committees and Fall 1998 Public Hearing Members of Community Growth Planning • • iv • m x cn 0 c m c 3 3 SD • 0 I. Executive Summary Wilmington=NewIanover County ------------------ ------------------------------ Comprehensive �l�n = =_ • INTRODUCTION Population Growth Pressures Between 1997 and 2010 the projection is for 31,000 new people to join the population of Wilmington and New Hanover County. This is an increase from 149,000 people in 1997 to 180,000 in 2010. The challenge for the County and City is to wisely allocate land use in the urban, urbanizing, and rural areas for our existing residents and projected newcomers. Plan Background Information and Land Use Survey The enclosed 1997-2010 draft Comprehensive Plan has been in the making since December 1996 when elected officials of the City and County authorized the creation of the Plan. Throughout 1997, and into spring of 1998, technical reports were written concerning: population; environmental resources and constraints; existing land use; transportation planning general information; community infrastructure with fiscal impact analysis; hurricane mitigation and reconstruction; housing; and economy. In October 1997 a registered voter land use issues survey was conducted. The results showed that the major public concern was that the current rate of growth was much too fast. Survey respondents expressed the desire for more economic growth but only if it is the right kind of growth such as high technology industrial. Eighty nine percent of the survey respondents expressed the desire that developers pay for infrastructure costs caused by new development, such as roads and schools. Protecting the environment was another clear outcome of the survey. Public Participation and Plan Guidance In the fall of 1997 six Public Forums were held across the City and County where input was solicited regarding the environment, land use and design, community infrastructure, transportation, housing, and economy. Included in the Plan Public Forums were participants from a citizen driven Community Growth Planning initiative. From winter to fall in 1998 the community participation process was guided by an elected official appointed 18 member Steering Committee of diverse backgrounds including: elected officials; planning commission and board members; business, environment, development, minorities real estate, and the school board. The Public participation process continued into the spring of 1998 with four Public Sub - Committees meetings which were also attended by 70 non -appointed volunteer members. These meetings were used to gather additional information and create draft policy statements for the Plan topics. Issues and vision statements from Community Growth Planning were included in the Sub - Committee meetings. During the summer and fall of 1998 the Steering Committee molded the issues and policies generated by the Public Sub -Committees and added implementation actions and a vision statement. In the fall of 1998 the future land use technical report was written incorporating proposed concepts from the public and Steering Community. In October 1998 the draft Plan was presented to City Council and the County Commissioners and was authorized to be sent to the State for review. Public hearings and adoption of the Plan by the City and County is scheduled for spring 1999. I-1 CONSERVATION AND DEVELOPMENT PHYSICAL PLAN GUIDE 0 Land Classification - Guiding Architecture for the Physical Plan The guiding architecture for the physical Plan is provided with a land classification map. Intensity of development ranges from urban land to the less developed rural and resource protected areas. The land classes are: developed; urban transition; limited transition; community; rural; conservation; and resource protection. Conservation Corridors, Greenways, Parks and Open Space The Plan provides for conservation corridors and greenways that link and incorporate conservation areas key parks and open space areas. The plan makes provision for the development of residential neighborhoods with environmentally sensitive design and an integration of open space. Residential Neighborhood Development The Plan focuses on Traditional Neighborhood Development with narrower tree lined streets and sidewalks emphasizing a pedestrian orientation and scale. Diverse housing types and lot sizes are encouraged. Public spaces such as formal public parks, village greens are primary features included in the design. Linking Pedestrian Friendly Business and Residential Development A vision presented in the Plan is to concentrate business and residential development in nodes, while retaining open space. The business nodes would include highly accessible linked pedestrian friendly commercial centers, surrounded by mixed density residential neighborhoods. Moving out from these centers the residential densities would decrease. The Plan provides for innovation and flexibility of land use. The Plan establishes guidelines to be followed in the development regulations, that will specify the size and the necessary design elements of development with incentives for their achievement. Urban Design for Business and Residential Neighborhood. Development The Plan addresses the recurring theme desired by our citizens with design guidelines for thoroughfare landscaping and signage, pedestrian access, dedicated bicycle routes, and pedestrian friendly shopping centers and parking lots. The Plan design guidelines address strip commercial development and establishing an integrated transportation network. Historic Preservation Downtown Wilmington has inherited a unique treasure of existing historic residences and business properties. The Plan recognizes the need to nurture and maintain this rich cultural heritage through historic preservation guidelines. Community Infrastructure The Plan directs where community infrastructure is needed including schools, libraries, parks, sheriff and police, fire, roads, water, sewer, and storm water. Fiscal analysis shows that provision of community infrastructure is cost efficient by focusing it in an Urban Service Area. There is the added benefit of deterring urban sprawl. Policy direction includes how to pay for the needed community infrastructure with exploration of alternative forms of financing. Addressed are the improvements needed to have a high quality level of service, and to prevent a decline in the level • I-2 of service provided to County and City residents. Paying for community infrastructure will be fairly shared by new development and existing residents. Transportation The Plan acts as a guide for transportation planning. Directions include: major and minor new thoroughfares; widening of existing streets where appropriate; the feasibility of multi -modal transit alternatives; park and ride lots, express bus service, and carpool and vanpool services; increased rubber tired trolley service; bicycle and pedestrian pathways; and congestion management. Storms and Natural Hazards The Plan addresses storms and natural hazards with mitigation, evacuation, and recovery in the event of a hurricane or disaster. Recovery management includes the provision for a recovery task force. HOUSING AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT SOCIAL NEEDS Housing One of the key housing components of the Plan is to increase affordable housing for low and moderate income persons. Methods for increasing affordable housing and ownership for low and moderate income residents include: expanding existing programs; establishing a mortgage revenue bond program; and establishing a land trust program for affordable housing land acquisition. r Other key related housing components in the Plan are: creating County minimum housing standards and enforcement, and enhancing the City's; consolidating the City and County Community Development Block Grant program to increase money for programs; increasing affordable rental housing; expanding programs for the homeless population; increased public outreach to the public by government on growth and development challenges; housing challenges for the elderly and special needs population; and adequate student housing for University of North Carolina` -Wilmington and Cape Fear Community College. Economy The Plan addresses the need for a coordinated economic development strategy to attract high paying employers, that are environmentally friendly, to create a more diversified economy. Another key concept of economic development in the Plan is to increase the skills level and education of the workforce for a healthy economy. The Plan addresses this challenge with school and work programs of Cape Fear Community College and the County public schools. The need for vocational education is particularly emphasized. Other economic development needs addressed by the Plan are: improving employment opportunities in economically distressed areas of the City and County; supporting the Wilmington State Port needs to deepen its harbor, improve inland highway and rail access, and upgrade the terminal; support the local water dependent marine economy; support the airport growth and expansion; and encourage a diversified economy including heritage and historic preservation tourism, boating, and eco tourism. I-3 • • • 5 0 o. c 0 II. Introduction 0 Background The Wilmington City Council and New Hanover County Commissioners agreed to jointly prepare a Comprehensive Plan in anticipation of continued growth, and in response to the scheduled update of the Land Use Plan, as required under the provisions of the Coastal Area Management Act (CAMA), and the Wilmington Urban Area Transportation Plan. Both these plans have future land use implications for the City and County, and it was rational to coordinate these two planning initiatives through a Comprehensive Plan process. The Coastal Area Management Act (CAMA), 1974, requires the establishment of a cooperative program of coastal land management between local government and the State of North Carolina for preparing, adopting and enforcing local land use plans. CAMA requires that local governments within the 20 coastal counties prepare land use plans which provide for the protection, preservation, orderly development and management of the coastal area of North Carolina. Wilmington is classified as an Urbanized Area by the US Census Bureau. As a result of this designation, the area is required to have a continuous transportation planning process that encompasses the urban area around Wilmington. A Greater Wilmington Metropolitan Planning Organization (MPO) is responsible for guiding the transportation planning. One of the main roles of the MPO is to develop the Transportation Plan. The Wilmington -New Hanover County Comprehensive Plan will become an official public document of the Wilmington City Council and the New Hanover County Board of Commissioners. Public hearings for the Plan are scheduled for Spring 1999 and will be followed by adoption. The Plan will act as a set of long range, general guidelines for local decision making. The Plan is also officially certified by the State and used by regional, State and Federal agencies in making project consistency determinations, funding and permit decisions. The Comprehensive Plan is intended to provide substantial guidance to City and County officials in their decisions on development plans, programs, regulations and incentives. The Plan also communicates local government policies to interested citizens and organizations. While the Comprehensive Plan is not statutorily binding in the sense of an ordinance, it is an important policy document that is adopted, amended and updated by formal action of the City Council, Board of Commissioners, and the North Carolina Coastal Resources Commission. This Plan is the fourth update to the original Wilmington -New Hanover CAMA Land Use Plan which was adopted by the City Council and the Board of Commissioners in 1976. Previous updates to the original Plan occurred in 1981, 1986 and 1993, in accordance with State planning guidelines. is e Purpose of the Plan The City of Wilmington and New Hanover County continue to experience a high level of population and employment growth. This growth will exert increasing pressure on the City and County's ability to provide services, insure wise development of the land, and minimize further degradation of our resources and loss of our natural landscape. The main purpose of the City -County Comprehensive Plan is summarized by the following. • Recognize the need for effective environmental and conservation management measures to ensure environmental protection. • Guide and monitor land use changes as a result of development. • Meet the transportation challenge with diverse solutions including automobile, bus, bicycle and pedestrian. • Maintain and enhance the fiscal sustainability and community infrastructure needs. • Support and enhance affordable housing and minimum housing programs. • Increase efforts to improve economic diversification, and efforts to attract employers with high paying jobs. `:'�. • �.' • Protect and nurture our historic heritage. • Ensure that there is a proactive plan for storm and natural hazards in the event of a hurricane or other natural disaster. • Provide a land classification system and map to chart a course of growth and development, and land conservation. II-2 • Components of the Plan The Comprehensive Plan consists of the following sections: issues; the planning process; vision and goals; issues, policies, and implementation actions; and land classification and map. Any changes, additions, or deletions to these elements will require an amendment to this Plan. Technical reports were used to support and provide information for the public and Steering Committee and are included in the appendix. Issues This section lists the community issues developed by the public and Steering Committee regarding natural resources, land use and urban design, community infrastructure, transportation, housing, historic preservation, economy, and storm and natural hazards. Planning Process This section contains details of the planning process for public participation and the Steering Committee. The planning process was used to create: a vision and goals; identify issues affecting the community, and create policies and implementation actions to address the issues. Vision and Goals This section contains the vision and goals of the Comprehensive Plan. The vision and goals were synthesized by the Steering Committee as a result of issues and policies brought forward by the public and Steering Committee through the planning process. Issues, Policies, and Implementation Actions This section of the Plan contains a reiteration of the issues, and policies and implementation actions, to guide future growth and development. The main topics are: natural resources, land use and urban design, community infrastructure, transportation, housing, historic preservation, economy, and storm and natural hazard. For each of the main topics the implementation actions have been consolidated into tables with the following detail: the priority given to the action item; the estimated relative cost of implementation; the fiscal year in which it is proposed to be initiated; and the responsible agency. These implementation action tables are to be used to evaluate progress in implementing the Plan policies, and will serve as an annual status report to City Council and the County Commissioners. Land Classification and Map The land classification and map show the location of the land categories which are: developed; urban transition; limited transition; community; rural; and conservation. These categories are intended to guide and promote wise development and natural resource conservation for the Plan. The policies and implementation actions fit within the architecture provided by the land classification. Appendix - Technical Reports The technical reports and survey are separate data inventory and analysis documents by topic and were developed to serve as resources for the public and Steering Committee members. These reports contain background information and statistical data from which the issues were quantified, and II-3 policies and implementation actions developed. Information required under State guidelines for this Plan is contained within the technical reports. • • II-4 • • U cn c cn U) 0 III. Issues 0 Community Issues An important first step in the Comprehensive Plan process was to identify community concerns. Issues were identified through an extensive public consultation, participation and review process which included: a New Hanover County voter survey (Eastcoast Consumer Research group, October 1997); public forums; the Wilmington Chamber of Commerce's Community Growth Planning initiative; and the public Comprehensive Plan Subcommittees, and Steering Committee. The issues, as expressed by the community through this collaborative process, have been grouped into the following topics: natural resources; land use and urban design; community infrastructure; transportation; housing; historic preservation; economy; and storm and natural hazards. The following major issues were identified. Natural Resource Issues Continued declining water quality has led to strong community desire for protection and enhancement of our surface and ground water quality and to bring all coastal water up to the highest quality possible. Loss of open space and farmlands to development has resulted in strong community desire to preserve remaining areas of public use; greenways, bike paths, hiking trails, conservation areas. The quality of our environment is perceived as an important ingredient in our overall quality 40 of life including our potential for continued economic growth; must ensure the protection and enhancement of our natural resources. The current rate of growth is much too fast for the community's comfort level and it is having a perceived negative impact on the quality of life. Identified as a weak area in previous plans; the Comprehensive Plan should identify the time frame, resource/costs, accountability, and feedback necessary to ensure its implementation. Land Use and Urban Design Issues Allocation of sufficient land for all desirable land use types. Flexible and Innovative site plan criteria are needed to guide the development process throughout the county. Continue to promote Wilmington as a regional trade center. Minimize dependence on the automobile by changing land use patterns and providing facilities for alternative methods of transportation. • Increase density where adequate infrastructure exists and where natural conditions will not be adversely effected. Land use plans and regulations effecting land use should be coordinated between the City and County and should incorporate the conclusions of other planning efforts (i.e. Community Growth, Downtown 2020, River Corridor Plan). Define urban growth boundaries. Identify elements that define quality of life and determine the impacts of the built environment on those elements. Community Infrastructure Issues The uncoordinated, costly provision of community services and facilities is of concern. The high cost of infrastructure investment places a burden on public and private financial resources. Storm water drainage problems caused by existing and future development raises concern. There are inadequate sewer and water services in some unincorporated areas. The optimal location, use and maintenance of education facilities should be a priority. Insufficient provision of community open space, recreation and cultural facilities for present • and future needs. region. priority. Downtown Wilmington should be given greater recognition as the cultural nucleus of the Maintenance of adequate police and fire services in unincorporated areas should be a There is an increased waste management problem due to growth and development. The proliferation of telecommunication towers is a cause for concern. Transportation Issues The full impact of new development and changes in land use on transportation systems, and the cost of mitigating this impact, is not adequately addressed. Efforts to improve flow of people and products are not sufficiently coordinated. Alternative forms of transport are not given enough emphasis. Strip development along thoroughfares. III-2 • The preservation of transportation corridors is inadequate. The appearance of road arteries needs improvement. The construction and maintenance of transportation facilities negatively impacts the environment, particularly water quality. Driveway access to arterial roads are not sufficiently controlled. Traffic volume exceeds the capacity of street networks. The negative affects of new roads on neighborhoods. Housing Issues The City minimum housing program needs to be strengthened, and the County should establish adopt a minimum housing code and enforcement program. With the growth of UNC Wilmington and Cape Fear Community College, students will need adequate on and off campus housing. I Regarding growth and change neighborhood residents need a mechanism to voice their concerns, and the County and City needs an efficient way to provide information to residents. The City and County needs to ensure that it is receiving the maximum amount of federal and state financial opportunities for community and economic development. There is a documented need for affordable housing, particularly for low and moderate income residents. There is a need to expand monetary incentives to increase affordable housing. Increased support of non profit organizations to increase the amount of affordable housing. There is a need to provide increased affordable rental and condominium housing. If zoning and regulations are more flexible, streamlined and have incentives; this will provide an increase in the amount of affordable housing. There are an estimated 800 homeless persons County wide with the majority living in the City. There is a need for adequate housing for the special need population, elderly, and disabled in the City and County. III-3 Economy Issues There needs to be improved economic diversification, and continued effort to attract employers that provide high paying jobs. Continue efforts to attract and retain business to economically distressed areas. To remain competitive into the next decade the State port will need to deepen its harbor, improve inland highway and rail access, and upgrade the terminal. The area could increase marine related employment opportunities with: marine technology; aquaculture; the aquarium; and boat manufacturing and marinas. The New Hanover County airport needs to expand to improve its competitiveness and at the same time balance the noise concerns of adjacent residents. There is a need to balance tourism with a diversified economy. There is a need to increase workforce preparedness, especially for the marginally trained and under educated. Historic Preservation Issue The City and County need to identify, protect and plan for the preservation of its historic and cultural resources. Storm and Natural Hazard Issues 0 Three hurricanes and five major storms in the past three years have focused attention on the need for examination of many existing ordinances and building codes. Use of land susceptible to hurricane and flooding damage must be scrutinized to assure the safety of visitors and citizens. Areas should be assessed as to their vulnerability to Natural Hazards. Following Natural Hazards infrastructure to aid in recovery must be in place to insure that essential functions of Government and commerce resume as soon as possible. There must be provisions for those who are unable to evacuate hazard areas. I11-4 IV. Planning Process \ • • • i IV. Planning Process wimht edh_ New hanoveT `ounty 'preheAsimr'�an Community Participants to the Plan Public involvement was assured throughout creation of the Comprehensive Plan with: public forums; a public survey; inclusion of a citizen Community Growth Planning initiative; Public Subcommittees; and a Steering Committee. • A Public Opinion Survey. • Six Public Forums. • A citizen initiative, Community Growth Planning. • Four Public Comprehensive Plan Subcommittee meetings. • Comprehensive Plan Steering Committee with 18 oversight meetings. Subject topics discussed included: natural resources; land use and urban design; community infrastructure; transportation; housing; economy, historic preservation; and storm and natural hazards. Public Opinion Survey The Public Opinion Survey was conducted in 1997 through a random telephone survey of 410 registered voters in New Hanover County. Detailed findings of the survey are the following (see appendix for copy of report). "The current rate of (County) growth is much too fast for voters to accept and is much higher than previous study levels. A total of 72% said growth was too fast, versus 51 % in 1991 or 41 % in 1986. The voter population has decided to accept more (economic activity in the County) but it is limited to mostly "light high tech" industrial business. This suggests that most voters like (economic) growth if it is the right growth. The voters definitely want developers to pay of the infrastructure costs, roads, schools, ect., caused by their growth or developments. The 89% rating was even higher than the 83% or 84% ratings of the previous studies (1986 and 1991). However, developers would likely pass along any of these costs to their buyers, voters or taxpayers or businesses." "Half of the voters said that continued growth and development is just as important as protecting the environment in the current study. This indicates that they are having difficulty in choosing, because both issues are important. Most of the voters are willing to see City and County dollars spent on solving their most important problem (growth). The 88% current study level is much stronger than the previous study levels (1991 and 1986). There was no clear choice on what (transportation) facility needs improvement. Responses were evenly distributed across most choices, except for a slight preference for improved roads. This likely reflects their traffic issue concerns." Public Forums In the fall of 1997 six Public Forums were held across the County and included help from Community Growth Planning volunteers. Public input was solicited with a growth and land use survey and prioritized issues. Including a -Citizen Initiative - Community Growth Planning • In response to concerns over rapid growth in the planning area a citizen driven Community Growth Planning initiative was supported by the Chamber of Commerce. This initiative identified IV-1 `-� and prioritized growth related issues facing our community. Community Growth Planning conducted a visioning process attended by more than 250 citizens, representing over 90 civic • groups during six public meetings. Initiative issues and vision ideas were incorporated directly into the Comprehensive Plan. This citizen initiative and the Comprehensive Plan have been mutually beneficial. Public Subcommittees The Public Subcommittees for the Comprehensive Plan consisted of over 70 non -appointed volunteer members who attended four meetings over a three month period during the Spring of 1998. The Subcommittees developed issue and policy statements, and implementation actions. This process included issues raised by Community Growth Planning. Plan Oversight - Steering Committee The Comprehensive Plan Steering Committee, is body appointed by the elected officials, representing the community. In creation of this draft Comprehensive Plan the Steering Committee has met for 18 times in 1998 from February to October. This Committee provided oversight for the duration of the plan development. The statements and actions developed by the Public Subcommittees were forwarded to the Steering Committee for review and refinement for inclusion in the Comprehensive Plan. The Steering Committee created a vision statement and goals summarizing the statements and actions for the Plan. A public hearing was held in September 1998 to further solicit information regarding the draft Comprehensive Plan. In October 1998 the County Commissioners and City Council authorized the submittal of this draft Comprehensive Plan to the State for Initial Review. Public hearings and final consideration and adoption of the Plan is scheduled for Spring of 1999 by the County Commissioners and City Council. IV-2 / V. Vision & Goals V. Vision and Goals -_ l Imiin o -l- Han j VISION STATEMENT Wilmington and New Hanover County are rich in history, natural resources and tradition. These are the characteristics that have formed our way of life and have made the area attractive to those who visit here. This way of life has adapted to changing times and to new people of differing ethnic proportion, customs and background. The natural resources have contributed to the area's economic prosperity and beauty. Our vision is to continue to adapt to growth as we preserve the values that make our community a great place to live in harmony with the earth and the sea and give our people unique opportunity for making a living. Thus, we combine the legacy of the past with the promise of the future. VISION OBJECTIVES Our Way of Life Our overall quality of life will be enhanced through the preservation, renovation and restoration of our neighborhoods. We will have parks, greenways, and bike paths that provide recreational opportunities for every citizen. Our region will offer outstanding, affordable health care systems and facilities. All these elements will continue to make this area a very desirable place to live, work and raise a family. Government There will be cooperation among all government agencies. We will defeat crime, drugs and violence through community wide commitment and action, coordinating educational, preventive, enforcement and rehabilitative programs and initiatives. Infrastructure and Transportation Our infrastructure systems will meet the needs of our economy and provide a high level of service to a growing population in a fiscally responsible manner. Our highways will meet the appropriate levels of service and scheduled plans will be ahead of anticipated growth patterns. There will be an inter -modal transportation system serving our County, State and Region. V-1 Housing and Economics • Safe, sanitary and affordable housing will be available to every citizen. Business development and diversity will embrace all economic, ethnic, social and cultural segments of the community. We will have grown our economic base and average wages/salaries by growing our high tech, heritage tourism, movie industry and port industry. We are recognized for our culturally diverse and highly inclusive business community. The business and industrial sectors will first look within our community for human resources development. Employment and financial opportunities will be provided for all citizens. Our historic and commercial districts will flourish and continue to be a hub for economic and cultural activities. Education Our children and their education will be this community's highest priority beginning at the pre-school level. Our school system test results will be among the leaders in the state. Vocational and technical training alternatives will begin at the middle school level. Cape Fear Community College and UNC-Wilmington will continue to grow and offer advanced vocational and post -secondary educational opportunities. Environment We envision that in the year 2020, Wilmington and New Hanover County will be an environmentally clean area with a healthy economy. Our natural resources, including our beaches, rivers, sounds, aquifers, natural vegetation and tree canopy will be preserved and protected. V-2 GOALS OF THE COMPREHENSIVE PLAN The following goals and common themes for the Wilmington and New Hanover County Comprehensive Plan are summarized from the policies and implementation actions. CONSERVATION AND DEVELOPMENT - PHYSICAL PLAN Land Classification The guiding architecture for the physical Plan is provided with the following mapped land classification. Land classes range from the developed urban land to the less developed rural and resource protected environment. The land classification system is supported and complemented by zoning. Land Classification - Guiding Architecture for the Physical Plan Developed Limited Transition Rural Resource Protection Urban Transition Community Conservation The developed and urban transition classes comprise the urban service area. The purpose of the developed class is to provide for continued intensive development and redevelopment of existing urban areas. The urban transition class provides for future intensive urban development on lands that have been or will be provided with necessary urban services. The developed and urban transition classes allow residential densities greater than 2.5 units per acre. Residential densities may not exceed 2.5 units per acre for the non -urban service area composed of. limited transition; community; rural; conservation; and resource protection. The limited transition class provided for development in areas that will have some services, but at lower densities than those associated with urban transition. The community class provides for a "crossroads" type of development to help meet housing, shopping, employment and public service needs within the more rural areas of the County. The rural class provides for areas of low intensity land uses, such as agriculture, forests, and mineral extraction areas. The conservation class provides long-term management and protection of significant, limited or irreplaceable natural resources. The resource protection class provides preservation and protection of important natural, historic, scenic, wildlife, and recreation resources. Conservation and Development - Physical Plan The Plan's policies and implementation actions fit within the land classification. Together they address the need to balance conservation and development, through physical planning, for the City and County. The following are the key physical Plan elements and objectives. Kev Elements for the Conservation and Development - Phvsical Plan Conservation Corridors, Greenways, Parks, and Open Space Residential Neighborhood Development Linking Pedestrian Friendly Business and Residential Development Urban Design for Business and Residential Neighborhood Development Historic Preservation Community Infrastructure Transportation V-3 Storm and Natural Hazards • Conservation Corridors, Greenways, Parks and Open Space The plan provides for conservation corridors and greenways which are linear open space systems that link and incorporate conservation areas, key parks, open space areas and utility corridors. The Plan includes neighborhood, community and regional parks. These are intended to provide a wide range of facilities to serve the diverse recreational and sporting needs of the community. The parks and facilities serve both passive and active recreational needs of the community. The proposed facilities range from playgrounds, picnic areas, basketball courts, baseball diamonds and tennis courts to larger athletic fields and parks which provide for resource oriented activities, such as boating, fishing, and hiking. Specialized parks include golf courses and nature parks. The greenways are usually located along natural and -or man-made features and may serve as conservation areas or as recreation areas for walking, jogging, biking and enjoying nature. The conservation component of greenways afford opportunities to protect and connect key natural features and functions, preserve essential water resources, act as natural filtration areas for runoff and pollutants, and to provide corridors for wildlife migration. Greenways are typically located along streams, flood plains and wetlands, and correspond to natural vegetated buffers adjacent to wetlands and perennial stream channels. Greenways may be either publicly or privately owned. Utility corridors such as roads, canals, reservoir shorelines and water, sewer, and power line easements can also be good locations for greenways. Greenways range in improvements from slightly cleared natural pathways to fully paved bike and pedestrian paths, and may or may not be accessible to the public. Residential Neighborhood Development The Plan makes provision for the development of residential neighborhoods, with environmentally sensitive design and an integrated open space system. The Plan focuses on the concept of Traditional Neighborhood Development which is a type of development with smaller lot neighborhoods with narrower tree lined streets and sidewalks on both sides of the street. This design emphasizes a pedestrian orientation and scale. Diverse housing types and lot sizes are mixed and houses are located close to the fronting street. There may also be some compatible nonresidential uses mixed in among the residential uses in the neighborhood. Public spaces, such as formal neighborhood parks, village greens or squares are primary features included in the design. These serve as focal points for community interaction to compensate for the smaller lot sizes. Traditional neighborhood designs include alleys for access to parking and for essential public services. Most traditional neighborhoods use on -street parking , which also serves to reduce traffic speed, buffer sidewalk pedestrians from traffic, and supply daily overflow or guest parking. Linking Pedestrian Friendly Business and Residential Development A vision presented in the Plan is to concentrate business and residential development in nodes, while retaining open space. This vision provides an alternative to unattractive, inefficient, and land wasteful strip development, with isolated cut off residential neighborhoods. This vision • V-4 decreases dependence on the automobile. The business nodes would include highly accessible, pedestrian friendly commercial centers, surrounded by mixed density residential neighborhoods. Moving outwards from these centers, the residential densities would decrease. The Plan provides for innovation and flexibility in land use. Proposed business and residential nodes are identified, but the precise internal arrangement of the commercial, office, institutional and higher density residential uses that make up the activity center is not specified. Instead the Plan establishes guidelines to be followed in the Unified Development Ordinance that will specify the size and the necessary design elements of development and provide incentives for their achievement. Changes to the Unified Development Ordinance regulations and procedures will provide the flexibility for innovation to establish and promote a hierarchy of neighborhood, community and regional activity centers. Urban Design for Business and Residential Neighborhood Development A recurring theme from the community involvement and consultation process was design related issues. These included thoroughfare landscaping and signage, pedestrian access, dedicated bicycle routes, and pedestrian friendly shopping centers and parking lots. The Plan includes general design guidelines to be expanded in the Unified Development Ordinance. The aim is to maintain and enhance the City and County's visual appeal and its image as an attractive place in which to live, work and recreate. The Plan design guidelines address the aesthetic qualities of residential areas, activity and employment centers. The focus of the Plan design guidelines is on the preservation and creation of a connected open space system with recreation facilities, and the preservation of environmentally significant features and functions. The r> . • design guidelines also address preventing strip commercial development, and the establishment of an integrated transportation network. The Plan guidelines serve as a basis for developing specific regulations, standards and requirements to manage growth and development. Historic Preservation Closely related to urban design for business and Traditional Neighborhood Development is the unique treasure of existing historic residences and business properties, primarily located in downtown Wilmington. The public involvement identified the need to nurture and maintain this rich cultural heritage through historic preservation with a set of guidelines for homeowners, builders and contractors. These guidelines are currently being written. The Plan recognizes the established Historic Districts which protects and preserves areas with architectural significance, heritage, historic importance, and their overall aesthetic qualities. Community Infrastructure The Comprehensive Plan serves as an official statement of where growth and development will be given preference in the future. Not only does it serve to guide investment decisions by the private sector and citizens, it also serves as a powerful tool to direct new community infrastructure and investment. The developed and urban transition land classes comprise the urban service area of the Wilmington and the unincorporated County (see Land Classification Map section XIn. Beyond the urban service area are the land classes of the non -urban service area. Guiding growth in the urban service area will deter land development sprawl and provide for more efficient infrastructure levels of service. V-5 Policy direction is addressed on how to pay for the needed community infrastructure with exploration of alternative forms of financing included impact fees, bond, user fees, and tax increases for the improvements needed to have a high quality level of service, and to prevent a decline in the level of service provided to County and City residents. Paying for community infrastructure will be fairly shared by new development and existing residents. Transportation The Greater Wilmington Metropolitan Planning Organization (MPO) is responsible for developing and implementing the Transportation Plan for most of the Plan study area. The MPO includes the City of Wilmington, New Hanover and Brunswick Counties, Belville, Leland, Navassa, and Wrightsville Beach. Future housing and employment data forms the basis for the development and testing of alternate transportation plans. These plans were developed taking into account economic feasibility, public desires, and environmental impacts. For these plans to be successfully implemented, the future rights -of -way must be procured or protected. The Greater Wilmington Urban Area Transportation Plan contains recommended improvements to the transportation system and these recommendations are reaffirmed by the policies and actions contained in the Comprehensive Plan. Recommendations focus on the following. The provision of major and minor new thoroughfares. Widening of existing streets where appropriate. The feasibility of multi -modal transit alternatives. • Park and ride lots, express bus service, and carpool and vanpool services. Increased rubber tired trolley service. Bicycle and pedestrian pathways. Congestion management. Storms and Natural Hazards Three hurricanes passing over our County and City between 1996 to 1998 fully illustrate the need for a proactive storm and natural hazard policy with implementation actions to be included in the Plan. A set of policies and actions are in place that address mitigation, evacuation, and recovery in the event of a hurricane or disaster. These policies and actions focus on measures to safeguard increased future populations from the risk of natural disaster. A Recovery Task Force may be appointed with the responsibility for directing reconstruction after a damaging storm. If needed the City and County may retain on a seasonal basis a facilitator or consultant to assist with mitigation, evacuation, recovery efforts. Actions address immediate removal and debris clean up and restoration of services following a major storm event. V-6 HOUSING AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT - SOCIAL NEEDS Housing and Related Challenges The following are key housing related challenges to come out of the Plan public consultation process. The Plan supports the effort for the City to enhance it's minimum housing program, and for the County to establish a minimum housing program with appropriate enforcement. The Plan contains policy and action to increase affordable housing for low and moderate income persons. Methods for increasing affordable housing and ownership for low and moderate income residents include: expanding existing programs; establishing a mortgage revenue bond program; and establishing a land trust program for affordable housing land acquisition. Federal and State funding for housing and economic development programs would be maximized through a consolidation of the County and City, Housing and Urban Development, Community Development Block Grant program. It is recommended that consolidation of the City and County programs should be considered. The amount of rental affordable housing needs to be increased and the Plan calls for an expanded City rental rehabilitation loan program and the establishment of a similar County program. • The City and County homeless population is a challenge to be addressed. The Plan calls for expanded programs for homeless shelters with adequate quality accommodations and with an emphasis on housing for the mentally disabled. There was a concern that a mechanism for public outreach on growth and development is needed. These concerns identified the need for better communication in both the City and County between government staff, elected officials, and citizens neighborhood associations. The Plan calls for creating neighborhood guidelines to remedy this challenge. The elderly population in the City and County will increase because of immigrating retirees and aging "baby boomers" in the next decade. The Plan calls for establishing a housing program to deal with the challenge of the projected increase in persons with special needs and elderly persons. To insure that there will be adequate student housing for the University of North Carolina - Wilmington, and Cape Fear Community College, the Plan calls for an on and off campus student housing program coordinated with the University, the College, and the City and County. Economy Key economic concepts to come out of the Plan public consultation process include the following. Data from the economic technical report show that 57% of the jobs in the County are relatively low paying, consisting of retail trade, service, and construction. Manufacturing jobs are the highest paying but they have been steadily declining and now constitute only 11 % of the work V-7 force. Policy and implementation action to address this challenge is to develop a coordinated economic development strategy to attract high paying employers, while creating a more diversified economy. 4) Some areas of the City and County are economically distressed and the City and County are working with non-profit and for profits organizations to attract and retain business to these areas. A priority is to expand economic opportunities for low and moderate income residents so that poverty is reduced, and employment increased. As more businesses are located in economically distressed areas commercial districts will improve and related jobs will increase for local residents. From 1990 to 1996 the Wilmington State Port Authority added to the state economy by ripple effect: 46,000 new jobs, $1.3 billion in income; $8.3 billion in new sales; $185 million in new taxes. This major player in our local economy will need to remain competitive into the next decade by deepening its harbor, improving inland highway and rail access, and upgrading the terminal. The Plan supports the needed Port upgrades with policy and implementation actions. An important part our coastal County and port City heritage is the water dependent marine economy. The Plan supports: local aquaculture research and marine technology, the expansion efforts of the North Carolina Aquarium at Fort Fisher, and expanded boat manufacturing and boating services such as marinas. The Plan encourages airport economic growth and development to be compatible surrounding land uses. The City and County are a favorite destination for tourists. New Hanover County's per • capita retail sales ranked fourth highest in the state in 1995. The Plan encourages a diversified economy including heritage and historic preservation tourism, boating tourism, and eco tourism activity. A skilled and educated workforce is essential for a healthy economy. The Plan addresses this challenge by supporting the school and work programs of Cape Fear Community College and the New Hanover County Public Schools. Vocational education is a particular emphasis to the Plan. Another action item in the Plan is to expand the job skills program for the post high school aged under -prepared. The Plan supports a study needed to prepare guidelines to address challenge of public school drop outs and high school students working excessively during the school year. • V-8 VI. Natural Resources Element , • • VI. Natural Resources (Environment) Wilmington New Hanouer County Comprehensive;plan ISSUES............................................................................................................................ The following issues have been identified by Citizens through the Community Growth Planning Initiative and throughout the Comprehensive Plan public participation process, which has included public forums, a telephone public opinion survey, Subcommittees, and the Steering Committee Task Groups. 1. Clean Water - continued declining water quality has led to strong community desire for protection and enhancement of our surface and groundwater quality and to bring all coastal waters up to the highest quality possible. 2. Open Space Preservation & Acquisition - loss of open space and farmlands to development has resulted in strong community desire to preserve remaining areas for public use; parks, greenways, bike paths, hiking trails, conservation areas; Save Airlie Gardens! 3. Environmental Protection/Quality of Life - the special quality of our coastal environment is perceived as an important ingredient in our overall quality of life including our potential for continued economic growth. We must ensure the protection and enhancement of our natural resources as stewards for future generations. 4. Growth Management- the current rate of growth is much too fast for the community's comfort level and it is having a perceived negative impact on the quality of life. The Comprehensive Plan must have implementable policies to encourage sustainable and orderly growth. 5. Implementation of Plans - identified as a weak area in previous plans; the Comprehensive Plan should identify the time frame, resource/costs, accountability, and feedback necessary to ensure its implementation. VI-1 Natural Resources := POLICIES.................................................................................................................................... • A. RESOURCE PROTECTION We must preserve, protect and enhance the area's natural resources, because the quality of our environment is an important ingredient in our overall quality of life, including our potential for continued economic growth. The protection of our resources shall be pursued in a regional context with area -wide planning, through a political process that favors long-term goals over short-term interests and provides accountability for the implementation of the goals and policies stated herein. 1. WATER QUALITY The City of Wilmington and New Hanover County shall: 1.1 Prevent further deterioration of estuarine water quality and loss of public trust uses in the creeks and sounds and bring all coastal waters quality up to its use designation as determined by the Division(s) of Water Quality, Marine Fisheries, Health, and E.P.A. 1.2 Ensure the protection of water quality throughout the Cape Fear River Basin within New Hanover County and the management & maintenance of drainage within our coastal watersheds through participation in the development of regional water quality / stormwater management programs. F' 1.3 Ensure the protection, preservation and wise use of our natural resources by careful review and consideration of the anticipated impacts of development through the creation and implementation of an Environmental Review Program. 1.4 It is the intent of this plan to further provide for the protection and improvement of our water quality through our Unified Development Ordinance (UDO). The UDO should specify standards for water quality, buffers, setbacks, density, impervious surface, and overlay corridors; it should consider estuarine, river and other feeder creeks water quality; and it should build upon existing information and ordinances. 2. OPEN SPACE The City of Wilmington and New Hanover County shall: 2.1 Ensure the preservation of adequate open space for its continued enjoyment and contribution to our community today and for generations to come, to protect our natural environment and wildlife habitats and to provide educational & recreational opportunities. 2.2 Identify and protect wildlife corridors as a part of the greenway system and require their protection or mitigation with all new development. 2.3 Preserve Airlie Gardens as a part of the greenway system to provide public open space, natural environment and water quality protection, coastal landscape, educational opportunities, and to ensure its continued enjoyment and contribution to our community. • VI-2 2.4 Ensure the protection of our community's significant trees and the provision of adequate landscaping to address urban design and resource protection issues through the update of city and county development ordinances & processes and establishment of a joint Tree Advisory Commission. 2.5 Provide for the protection, acquisition and development of public shorefront and boat access areas. 3. NATURAL RESOURCE CONSTRAINTS The City of Wilmington and New Hanover County shall: 3.1 Preserve and restore shell fishing to all SA waters and bring all coastal waters designated or formerly designated SA up to their use designation. 3.2 Provide for the continued protection of the Cape Fear River from the cumulative impacts of development by ensuring that Industrial permitting does not exceed the river's carrying capacity and land disturbing activities are carefully reviewed and considered for their potential sediment/turbidity and nutrient impacts. 3.3 Minimize dense development activities in ocean erodible areas, high hazard flood areas, inlet hazard areas, and coastal & federally regulated wetlands to protect the public safety, reduce the risk of property damage, and provide for the long-term protection and management of these environmentally significant resources due to their natural role in the integrity of the coastal region. 3.4 Ensure the protection of coastal and federally regulated wetlands that have important functional significance through earl identification in the development process. Review of g � Y P development proposals should seek to achieve the goal of avoidance, minimization, and/or compensation. 3.5 Ensure the protection of our undeveloped barrier and estuarine system islands and support research and passive recreation as their primary uses. Undeveloped barrier and estuarine system islands should not be developed and should be identified as public acquisition areas. 3.6 Carefully control development activities within the 100-year floodplain to minimize density and impervious surfaces and require low intensity uses such as open space and recreation, to protect the public safety, reduce the risk of property damage, and provide for the long-term protection and management of these environmentally significant resources. • Limited shared industrial access corridors and exceptionally designed residential development projects may be allowed within the floodplain only where it can be demonstrated that the project cannot be located out of the floodplain and where adverse impacts to the estuarine system can be shown to be negligible. • All projects shall comply with hierarchical review standards of avoidance, minimization, and compensation for unavoidable impacts. 3.7 Require that the cumulative and secondary impacts of land use and development, and the limited carrying capacity of our coastal ecosystems be considered in all land use decisions and in the development or revision of local plans, capital facilities, services, and ordinances. 1 0 VI-3 3.8 Allow channel maintenance projects only where the public trust interest is preserved or enhanced; significant economic or recreational benefits will occur for planning area residents; and no significant adverse impacts will occur on shoreline dynamics. 3.9 Allow shoreline erosion control only where the public trust interest is not adversely impacted and the public shoreline will be the primary beneficiary, The shoreline stabilization method chosen shall, to the maximum extent feasible, maintain water quality and avoid or minimize adverse effects on nearshore habitat or natural resources. 3.10 Carefully control development activities within the estuarine watersheds to prevent the degradation of water quality in the creeks and sounds, to protect the public health, and to ensure the protection of these vital natural resources by reducing nutrient, pesticide, sediment and other harmful loadings through density controls, setbacks, buffers, impervious surface limits, and other means. The following standards shall apply: • Limit density to 2.5 units/acre or less in Resource Protection & Conservation. • Limit impervious surface coverage within defined water quality critical areas. • Increase existing setbacks and establish a natural vegetative buffer to effectively filter runoff prior to entering surface waters. 3.11 Limit density in hydric soils and Areas of Environmental Concern (AEC's);and encourage Planned Residential Development and Planned Unit Development to allow greater -design flexibility to save trees and natural buffers. 3.12 Clearcutting or mowing of coastal wetland vegetation within any coastal wetland AEC shall not be allowed. 4. AREAS OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONCERN The City of Wilmington and New Hanover County shall: 4.1 Prohibit the use of estuarine waters, estuarine shorelines and public trust areas for development activity which would result in significant adverse impact to the natural function of these areas. 4.2 Carefully control development activities within AEC's to prevent the degradation of water quality and to ensure the protection of these vital natural resources by reducing nutrient, pesticide, sediment and other harmful loadings through the use of density control, setbacks, buffers, impervious surface limits, and other means. The following standards shall apply: • Limit density to 2.5 units/acre or less in Resource Protection and Conservation. • Limit impervious surface coverage within defined water quality critical areas. • Increase existing setbacks and establish a natural vegetative buffer to effectively filter runoff prior to entering surface waters. 4.3 Support the preservation, protection, and acquisition of the Masonboro Island Estuarine Research Reserve 4.4 Discourage the development of undeveloped barrier and estuarine system islands, and allow development only in limited circumstances. VI4 • • 4.5 Continue the phased development and extension of the County sewer system within the urban services area as a means of eliminating water pollution from malfunctioning or inadequate septic systems and package treatment plants. In Conservation and Resource Protection areas an environmental review shall be required prior to sewer system development or extension and no additional density shall be allowed in these areas. Planned Residential Development, Planned Unit Development and other methods of cluster development shall be encouraged to allow greater design flexibility. 4.6 Allow only tertiary sewage treatment plants of the highest quality, whose standards of operation provide the greatest measure of water quality protection, to discharge into public surface waters; and then only if it is not feasible to connect to the public sewer system. or as an alternative, on or off -site land application located away from surface waters. 4.7 Seek to provide additional boat access facilities, recognizing that adequate, properly sited facilities are essential to the preservation of both the environment and economy. 4.8 Allow the development of marinas and moorings as a means of providing public access to the extent that their development shall not adversely effect estuarine resources or public trust waters. • Marinas shall not be allowed in Primary Nursery Areas(PNA), Outstanding Resource Waters(ORW), or open Shellfishing Waters(SA). • Moorings and mooring fields shall not be allowed where they may have an adverse effect on navigation channels. • Pumpout facilities shall be required for existing marinas which have boats containing enclosed heads. 4.9 Allow uses of estuarine and public trust waters that provide benefits to the public and which satisfy riparian access needs of private property owners. In tidal waters, docks shall be limited to the minimum necessary to provide riparian access to waterfront property owners 4.10 Not allow new dredging activities in Primary Nursery Areas (PNA), Outstanding Resource Waters (ORW), or Shellfishing Waters (SA) , except for the purpose of scientific research, designed for the purpose of protecting and enhancing water quality, and where supported by sound scientific and technical knowledge. 4.11 Clearcutting or mowing of coastal wetland vegetation within any coastal wetland AEC shall not be allowed. 4.12 Prohibit floating home development in order to protect our public trust and estuarine waters. 4.13 Pursue a policy of "retreat" along our estuarine shorelines in order to accommodate future sea level rise and wetland migration. 4.14 Allow shoreline erosion control and stabilization above our marsh wetlands only where the public trust interest is not impacted and the public shoreline will be the primary beneficiary. The shoreline stabilization method chosen shall, to the maximum extent feasible, maintain water quality and avoid or minimize adverse effects on nearshore habitat or natural resources. VI-5 5. POTABLE WATER SUPPLY The City of Wilmington and New Hanover County shall: 5.1 Ensure that all land use and development decisions protect our groundwater aquifers. • 5.2 Not allow the development of mining operations if, based upon the best available information and scientific data, adverse impacts to the ground water aquifer will most probably occur. 5.3 Conserve and protect the best sources of potable surface and groundwater. 5.4 Preserve the Castle Hayne and Pee Dee aquifers in their present unpolluted state as the primary groundwater resources for the County. 6. OTHER FRAGILE OR HAZARDOUS AREAS The City of Wilmington and New Hanover County shall: 6.1 Continue to support plans for the safe transportation of hazardous materials, for the prevention and clean-up of spills of toxic materials, and the evacuation of area residents in response to natural or man-made hazardous events. 6.2 Carefully review the siting of all industries, including energy facilities and high voltage utilities, to ensure the protection of area residents and natural resources. ` 6.3. Ensure that industrial permitting on the Cape Fear River does not exceed the rivers carrying capacity and that land disturbing activities are carefully reviewed and considered for their potential cumulative impacts. 6.4. Ensure the continued protection of the Masonboro Island Estuarine Research Reserve and support the preservation and acquisition efforts. 7. AIR QUALITY The City of Wilmington and New Hanover County shall: 7.1 Ensure the protection and enhancement of air quality in our community through continued commitment and actions to meet or exceed the Cape Fear Region's National Air Quality Standards. B. RESOURCE PRODUCTION AND MANAGEMENT We must seek to ensure the continued sustainable development of the area's natural resources through responsible management which avoids short sighted or premature commitments and fulfills our community's needs without permanent impairment to the resource base. We will support efforts to wisely manage the natural resources of the area and the region through cooperation with other governmental entities and public and private agencies. 1. AGRICULTURAL AND FORESTRY RESOURCES The City of Wilmington and New Hanover County shall: 1.1 Discourage the premature conversion of the planning area's remaining farmlands and commercial woodlands into more intensive uses. • VI-6 0" is 2. MINERAL RESOURCES The City of Wilmington and New Hanover County shall: 2.1 Not allow the development of mining operations if, based upon the best available information and scientific data, adverse impacts to the ground water aquifer or other significant environmental resources will most probably occur. 3. FISHERIES RESOURCES The City of Wilmington and New Hanover County shall: 3.1 Support the continued productivity of commercial and recreational fisheries through the protection of the unique coastal ecosystems, including primary nursery areas, shellfish waters and coastal marshes upon which they depend, and the Masonboro Island Estuarine Research Reserve. 3.2 Pursue the protection, preservation, and restoration of shellfishing in all SA waters. 4. OFF -ROAD VEHICLES The City of Wilmington and New Hanover County shall: 4.1 Ensure the continued protection of ecologically sensitive ocean and estuarine shoreline areas through monitoring and control of off -road vehicle use, including signage programs, rewards, increased fines, and other means. DEFINITIONS • Carrying Capacity- the number of individuals who can be supported without degrading the physical, ecological, cultural and social environments(eg-without reducing the ability of the environment to sustain the desired quality of life over the long term). • Cumulative Impacts- two or more individual effects which when considered together are considerable or which compound or increase other environmental effects. • Secondary Impacts- later and unintended effects of any direct man-made action or indirect repercussions of man-made actions • Barrier Islands - any land formation composed of unconsolidated materials lying on the ocean side of the mainland and which have the following characteristics: a) The land is an island or part of island with a density equal to or less than one residential unit per five acres; b) the island area has been assigned the most severe rank with regard to hurricane forces; c) the island area is not connected to the mainland by a permanent network of roads and bridges that would allow safe and timely evacuation by land rather than boat; d) the island area does not qualify for the National Flood Insurance Program as administered by the Federal Emergency Management Agency; e) the island area is classified as Conservation in the Land Use Plan; also includes estuarine islands, riverine islands, and spoil disposal islands (note: further clarification of this definition will be provided with amendments to zoning and subdivision definitions). VI-7 • Hydric Soils - Soils that are saturated or seasonally saturated with water at or near the surface (within 12-18 inches depending on soil type). Generalized characteristics include high organic matter f content of the surface, low shrink swell potential, and frequent sustained flooding. All Class IV and • some Class III Soils as defined in the 1981 technical report, Classification of Soils in New Hanover Countyfor Septic Tank Suitability. Development -any man-made change to improved or unimproved real estate, including but not limited to buildings or other structures, mining, dredging, filling, grading, paving, excavation, or drilling operations; excluding bona fide farming activities. • Major Development - the term major development project shall include but is not limited to shopping centers, subdivision and other housing developments, and industrial and commercial projects, but shall not include any project of less than 2 contiguous acres in extent (G.S. I I3A-9. Definitions -NC Environmental Policy Act). Watershed - the area of land where water that falls or is contained therein runs off or drains into the same river, stream, lake, estuary, or aquifer. Riparian Access - the legal right of waterfront property owners to construct docks or piers that are contained within the boundaries of their riparian area limit (90 degree angle from the edge of the channel back to the property line or shore). Marina - includes commercial marinas, rental slips, community boating facilities, and residential piers renting more than two slips. • Commercial Marina- any dock or basin and associated structures commercially providing permanent or temporary harboring or storing of two or more boats, pleasure or commercial, and providing marine services, including but not limited to retail sales for fuel, repair, • convenient food stuffs, boats, engines, and accessory equipment. Community Boating Facility- a private non-profit boating facility including a dock, pier, and/or launching ramp on property which has water frontage, the use of which is intended to serve 5 or more residential lots or units. The right to use such facility must be conferred by an easement appurtenant to the residential lot it is intended to serve. No commercial activities of any kind shall be allowed within the confines of the facility. Mooring - any means to attach a ship, boat, vessel or other water craft to a stationary underwater device, buoy, buoyed anchor, or freestanding piling. Water Dependant Uses- those activities or structures for which the use requires access or proximity to or siting adjacent to or within surface waters to fulfill its intended purpose, such as boat docks, ramps, shoreline stabilization measures, navigational aids and/or channels. Examples of structures that are not water dependant include but are not limited to commercial boat storage facilities, restaurants,residences, parking lots, trailers, hotels, motels, roadways, tennis courts, or swimming pools. Passive Recreation- those activities which avoid or minimize the use of impervious or built upon surfaces, such as raised wooden walkways, vegetated greenways, non -paved pathways, and other similar uses. Passive recreation activities shall conform to standards for setbacks, buffers, impervious surfaces, etc. VI-8 NATURAL RESOURCES I LEMENTATION ACTIONS Policy Implementation Actions Details for Actions Priority Resources Fiscal Responsibility,Status #'s - - - - Required Year(s) $ All Planning duality One (1) $$$$$ 1999 - . Planning / r duality, ! 2000 - Engineering 2001 -' 2002 that ed (ie-1. rshed, to . ale isition reserve, protect its ii'of pursue an avauawe;gran is. 9) Continue to support the Lower Cave.F & the'UNCW Tidal Creeks Program': VI-9 Policy Implementation Actions Details for Actions Priority Resources Fiscal .;' Responsibility :,Status #'s Required Year(s) ALL Develop an environmental 1) Develop an environmental review process and ordinance; One (1) $$ 1999 Planning 1.3 review program to be required for all major development projects, or any 1.4 development in conservation, resource protection, coastal 2.1 : 404 wetlands or other sensitive areas; to include: 2.2 a) guidelines for the evaluation of cumulative impacts on the 3.2-12 community: 4.1 b) guidelines for review of impacts in accordance with goals of 4.4-6 avoidance, minimization, compensationand/or mitigation. 4.8-10 ` c) identification and protection of historical, archaeological, and 4.13-14 other conservation resources 5.1-4 d) preservation of significant /specie trees 6.1-4 e) guidelines for mitigation of impacts A2.1-5 Develop a comprehensive open I)Develop and implement a joint city -county masterplan for: Two (2) $$$$$ 1999- Planning/ 4.7-8 space, greenways and trails open space, greenways, parks, and trails. 2003 Parks system 2)Develop a funding "program to ensure adequate resources ; are allocated. Funding strategies for consideration, to include fees, bonds; grants; and others. 3)Develop public access/boat access area plans 4)ldentify areas on Future Land Use and Land Classification: Maps:.. 23 Preserve Airlie Gardens Pursue acquisition !preservation strategies, to, include One (I) $$$$$ 1998- Planning/ program funding through grants, bonds, and, others: 1999 Parks (See also implementation actions for Policy A2.I above) A1.4 Update city and county, 1) Revise andiupdate the Unified Development Ordinance :.One $$ 1999 Planning 24 development processes and 3.3-6 ordinances ! 2) Include new standards to address identified resource 3.10-12 protection issues, urban design issues, tree preservation / 44 landscaping issues and others: 411-13 51 3) Develop specific performance standards for setbacks, 64.1 natural vegetated buffers, and impervious surface limns for each watershed. 4) Revise and update development/permit review process 0 AD 0 Policy Implementation Actions Details for Actidns—..... Pdority Resources"Fiscal # Is ...... R .. equired Year(s). 3.2 Support the protection of the 1) Support the Lower. Cape Fear River Program, Cape Fear One (1) Planning Cape Fear River from the < River Assembly, Cape Fear Resource, Conservation & 2002 cumulative impacts of Development Council,: and the Cape Fear -Rivet Basin development: Modeling Program (NC Div*. of Water Quality). 2) Support: the 'develo development of best management p en ntpract1ces,.:.:,,: and pursue, their implementation f6r upstream no n-spoint-; u sources of pollution, including agricultural (hog, 139Itry, , etc) and '.forestry operations. 3) Support a continued moratorium on new orexpanded:' industrial hog farming operations pending basinMde environmental impact assessment. A4.3-4 Support the protection and 1) Pursue island acquisition and preservation strategies 1. . . I on I e (1)::: $$ :1999- Planning 6.4 preservation of Masonboro. Island 2002. Estuarine Research Reserve.. 2) Develop guidelines.for .the environmental revid,1,v:jpi6cess:., to ensure no significant Adverse effects from, mainland development activities 3) Support the scientific research activities of the Reserve VI-1 I VII. Land Use & Urban Design Element VII. Land Use and Urban -Design ISSUES......................................................................................................... 1. Allocation of sufficient land for all desirable land use types 2. Flexible and Innovative site plan criteria are needed to guide the development process throughout the county. 3. Continue to promote Wilmington as a regional trade center 4. Minimize dependence on the automobile by changing land use patterns and providing facilities for alternative methods of transportation 5. Allow higher density where adequate infrastructure exists and where natural conditions will not be adversely effected. 6. Land use plans and regulations effecting land use should be coordinated between the city and county and should incorporate the conclusions of other planning efforts (ie. Community Growth, Downtown 2020, River Corridor Plan). 7. Define urban service district. •8. Identify elements that define quality of life and determine the impacts of the built environment on those elements. • POLICIES...................................................................................... . Location/Demand l . The City of Wilmington and New Hanover County shall strive to enhance the quality of the built environment while preserving and protecting the area's natural environment. 2. The City of Wilmington and New Hanover County will designate sufficient land area and suitable locations for the various land use types. 2.A. Use projected needs and available services identified in the technical studies as the basis for land use allocations. 2.13. Locate land use types based on the following guiding policies and implementation items: VII-1 Open Space, Cultural and Recreation 3. The City of Wilmington and New Hanover County will strive to acquire, protect and beautify historic and cultural sites, corridors along key roadways and significant open spaces. 3.A. Establish protective corridors along key roadways, historic and cultural sites and other areas that are visually significant. 3.13. Pursue railroad and other rights -of -way as potential open space, trailway and recreation areas. 3.C. Identify environmentally sensitive land as potential open space and recreation areas and key sites for parks. Industrial 4. New Hanover County and the City of Wilmington will delineate areas for industrial usage so that these sites maximize the efficient use of man made resources while not harming the fragile ecosystem or causing undue impacts upon residents. 4.A. Locate heavy industrial uses in locations: with adequate land area to accommodate the expansive sites required for such uses; that are environmentally suitable; and, where necessary infrastructure (utilities, transportation facilities) is available or included in capital improvement plans. 4.13. Allow light industrial (clean) uses in mixed use areas with clear requirements for location on no less than collector streets, availability of utilities, and appropriate performance controls to address odor, noise, lighting and other impacts on surrounding uses. 4.C. Provide a wide choice of sites with good access to labor markets, suppliers and buyers through consultation with Wilmington Industrial Development, the State Port and others in the field of industrial promotion. Commercial 5. New Hanover County and the City of Wilmington will assure that land is available for commercial uses within close proximity to the markets they serve while not diminishing the quality of residential and mixed use neighborhoods. 5.A. Locate regional commercial nodes at major intersections to accommodate uses that serve a regional market. 5.13. Designate the central business district as a regional trade/office center. 0 • 5.C. Locate commercial centers to provide community level service and trade needs at key intersections or on major thoroughfares with appropriate performance and design requirements. is5.D. Allow neighborhood level commercial in mixed use areas with strict guidelines for development. V II-2 • �j Mixed Use 6. The City of Wilmington and New Hanover County will promote mixed use development in undeveloped areas in order to maximize benefits from available infrastructure, preserve valuable natural resources including open space and reduce dependency on the automobile. 6.A. Develop performance criteria for mixed use development to ensure proper design, density, access, etc. 6.13. Designate undeveloped and underdeveloped areas as mixed use to accommodate residential and less intense commercial, office, industrial uses with strict performance controls. Residential Neighborhoods 7. The City of Wilmington and New Hanover County shall strive to protect the character of the area's existing residential neighborhoods. 7.A. Afford existing residential neighborhoods performance standards to keep the neighborhood character consistent with the pattern of development for the area. 7.13. Afford a higher level of protection for existing residential neighborhoods by limiting non- residential uses and allowing public review. Design/Regulatory The City of Wilmington and New Hanover County shall encourage innovative development strategies while providing flexible design guidelines that enhance the aesthetic impact of the built environment. 8.A. Develop performance standards that will allow the mingling of compatible uses. 8.13. Develop specific urban design standards to promote public spaces. 9. New Hanover County and the City of Wilmington shall adopt specific performance criteria to encourage the conservation of natural resources and enhance economic desirability by promoting accessibility of goods and services, providing alternatives to automobile transportation and adopting specific performance criteria for new development. 9.A. Conduct design charettes to develop models (examples) of desirable characteristics of development elements (streets, parks, neighborhood services,....). 9.13. Provide incentives to property owners to preserve and reclaim key natural resources through innovative design using available public and private resources towards creative approaches toward acquisition. 9.C. Develop standards to ensure that heavy industrial areas have adequate access and are properly VII-3 distanced from and minimize impacts such as noise, fumes and lighting, on adjoining non- industrial areas. 9.D. Provide design criteria for regional nodes to ensure the appropriate relationship to the existing streetscape. Criteria will address the issues of congestion, visual clutter, utilities and the proper relationship with adjoining properties. 9.E. Provide clear requirements for mixed use development to include maximum square footage, buildable area ratio, impervious surface coverage, landscaping buffering, lighting, access, height, density, exterior materials, parking, orientation to the street, etc. 9.F. Promote alternative modes of transportation in design guidelines. 9.G. Reference approved plans, such as the Wilmington Downtown Plan, Vision 2020 and the historic district guidelines, in applicable development guidelines. Infrastructure 10. New Hanover County and the City of Wilmington shall promote development within an established urban service area defined by the existence of essential urban services and the planned provision of those services. 10.A. Modify applicable plans, regulations and budgets to focus the provision of urban -level services within the areas designated as "Urban" on the land classification map. • 10.B. Modify development regulations to encourage development within the urban services area where existing infrastructure is available. 10.C. Consider the cost of infrastructure that are land use driven in modifying development regulations. 10.D. Initiate innovative capital facilities financing as a part of the development approval process. 10.E. Implement the comprehensive plan through the City and County capital improvement programs. 10.F. Pursue joint ownership by the City and County of major utility systems. 10.G. Develop a schematic collector street plan as a guide in the development approval process and implementation of an effective transportation network. 10.H. Consider providing state of the art technical services such as fiber optic lines which will make the area more attractive to prospective commercial and industrial companies when planning other essential urban services. VII-4 LAND USE AND URBAN DESIGN 2.A. Use projected needs and available Compare projections with future land use Planning $ N/A September services identified in the technical map. 1998 studies as the basis for land use allocations. 2.13. Locate land use types based on the Future Land Use Map Steering $ N/A September following guiding policies and Committee 1998 implementation items: 3.A. Establish protective corridors along key Reflect on Future Land Use Map (Sept. Steering $ H Spring, roadways, historic and cultural sites and '98), incorporate into revisions to UDO; Com/Planning 1999 other areas that are visually significant. Brd./ Planning Com./ Planning 3.13. Pursue railroad and other rights -of -way Monitor for abandonment. Planning $ M On -Going as potential open space, trailway and recreation areas. 3.C. Identify environmentally sensitive land Incorporate into Parks Master Plan and Parks & Rec./ $$$ M 1999-2000 as potential open space and recreation Capital Improvement Programs. Admin./ areas and key sites for parks. Planning 4.A. Locate heavy industrial uses in locations Reflect on Future Land Use Map (Sept., Steering Com. $ H Spring, w/adequate land area to accommodate 1998), incorporate into revisions to UDO. /Planning 1999 expansive sites required for such uses; Commission/ that are environmentally suitable; and, Planning where necessary infrastructure (utilities, transportation facilities) is available or included in capital improvement plans. 4.13 Allow light industrial (clean) uses in Reflect on Future Land Use Map (Sept., Steering Com. $ H Spring, mixed use areas with clear requirements 1998), incorporate into revisions to UDO. /Planning 1999 for location on no less than collector Commission/ streets, availability of utilities, and Planning appropriate performance controls to address odor, noise, lighting and other impacts on surrounding uses. VII-5 LAND USE AND URBAN DESIGN 4.C. Provide a wide choice of sites with good Develop inventory of sites. Planning/WID $ M 1999-2000 access to labor markets, suppliers & /Chamber/ buyers through consultation w/ Wilm. SPA/UNCW Indus. Devel., the State Port and others in the field of industrial promotion. S.A. Locate regional commercial nodes at Reflect on Future Land Use Map (Sept., Steering Com. $ H Spring, major intersections to accommodate 1998), incorporate into revisions, to UDO. /Planning 1999 uses that serve a regional market. Commission/ Planning 5.6. Designate the central business district as Reflect on Future Land Use Map (Sept., Steering Com. $ H Spring, a regional trade/office center. 1998), incorporate into revisions to UDO. /Planning 1999 Commission/ Planning S.C. Locate commercial centers to provide Conduct design charettes, research Steering $ H Fall, 1998 community level service and trade needs regulations in other communities, Com/Planning at key intersections or on major incorporate results into UDO revision. Brd./ Planning thoroughfares with appropriate Com./ performance and design requirements. Planning S.D. Allow neighborhood level commercial Conduct design charettes, research Steering $ H Fall, 1998 in mixed use areas with strict guidelines regulations in other communities, Com/Planning for development. incorporate results into UDO revision. Brd./ Planning Com./ Planning 6.A. Develop performance criteria for mixed Conduct design charettes, research Steering $ H Fall, 1998 use development to ensure proper regulations in other communities, Com/Planning design, density, access, etc. incorporate results into UDO revision. Brd./ Planning Com./ Planning 6.13. Designate undeveloped and underdeveloped areas as mixed use to Reflect on Future Land Use Map (Sept. '98), incorporate into revisions to UDO; Steering Com/Planning $ H Spring, 1999 accommodate residential and less Brd./ Planning intense commercial, office, industrial Com./ uses with strict performance controls. I I Planning 0 .V16 0 LAND USE ANDqjRBAN DESIGN 6111 7.A. Afford existing residential Conduct design charettes, research Steering $ H Fall, 1998 neighborhoods performance standards to regulations in other communities, Com/Planning keep the neighborhood character incorporate results into UDO revision. Brd./ Planning consistent with the pattern of Com./ development for the area. Planning 7.13. Afford a higher level of protection for Conduct design charettes, research Steering $ H Fall, 1998 existing residential neighborhoods by regulations in other communities, Com/Planning limiting non-residential uses and incorporate results into UDO revision. Brd./ Planning allowing public review. Com./ Planning B.A. Develop performance standards that will Conduct design charettes, research Steering $ H Fall, 1998 allow the mingling of compatible uses. regulations in other communities, Com/Planning incorporate results into UDO revision. Brd./ Planning Com./ Planning 8.13. Develop specific urban design standards Conduct design charettes, research Steering $ H Fall, 1998 to promote public spaces. regulations in other communities, Com/Planning incorporate results into UDO revision. Brd./ Planning Com./ Planning 9.A. Conduct design charettes to develop Conduct design charettes, research Steering $ H Fall, 1998 models (examples) of desirable regulations in other communities, Com/Planning characteristics of development elements incorporate results into UDO revision. Brd./ Planning (streets, parks, neighborhood Com./ services,...). Planning 9.13. Provide incentives to property owners to Conduct research and develop changes to Planning $ M 1999 — preserve and reclaim key natural unified development ordinance. 2000 resources through innovative design using available public and private resources towards creative approaches toward acquisition. V11-7 LAND USE AND URBAN DESIGN 9.C. Develop standards to ensure that heavy Revise unified development ordinance. Planning $ H Spring, industrial areas have adequate access Board/ 1999 and are properly distanced from and Planning minimize impacts such as noise, fumes Commission and lighting, on adjoining non -industrial areas. 9.D. Provide design criteria for regional Conduct design charettes, research Steering $ H Fall, 1998 nodes to ensure the appropriate regulations in other communities, Com/Planning relationship to the existing streetscape. incorporate results into UDO revision. Brd./ Planning Criteria will address the issues of Com./ congestion, visual clutter, utilities and Planning the proper relationship with adjoining properties. 9.E. Provide clear requirements for mixed Conduct design charettes, research Steering $ H Fall, 1998 use development to include maximum regulations in other communities, Com/Planning square footage, buildable area ratio, incorporate results into UDO revision. Brd./ Planning impervious surface coverage, Comd landscaping buffering, lighting, access, Planning height, density, exterior materials, parking, orientation to the street, etc. 9.F. Promote alternative modes of Conduct, research and develop changes to Planning $ M 1999— transportation in design guidelines. unified development ordinance. 2000 9.G. Ref. Approved plans, such as Wilm. Incorporate into applicable regulations. Planning $ M 1999— Downtown Plan, Vision 2020 and the 2000 historic district guidelines, in applicable development guidelines. 10.A. Modify applicable plans, regulations & Incorporate into 1999 — 2000 budget Planning/ $ M 1999— budgets to focus provision of urban- process. Admin. 2000 level services within the areas desig. as "Urban" on the land classification map. 10.B. Modify development regulations to encourage development within the Revise unified development ordinance. Planning Board/ $ H Spring, 1999 urban services area where existing Planning infrastructure is available. Commission VII-8 LAND USE AND -URBAN DESIGN �J 10C. Consider the cost of infrastructure that Revise unified development ordinance. Planning $ M Spring, are land use driven in modifying Board/ 1999 development regulations. Planning Commission 10.D. Initiate innovative capital facilities Revise unified development ordinance. Planning $ M Spring, financing as part of the development Board/ 1999 approval process. Planning Commission 10.E. Implement the comprehensive plan Incorporate into 1999 — 2000 budget Planning/ $ M 1999— through the City and County capital process. Admin. 2000 improvement programs. 10.F. Pursue joint ownership by the City and Continue City/County Utilities Committee. City Council/ H 1999— Present County of major utility systems. County Com- 2000 missioners/ Admin 10.G. Develop schematic collector street plan Complete work on the collector street Planning/ $$ H Spring, as a guide in the development approval network in the metropolitan planning area; NCDOT/ TCC 1999 process and implementation of an possibly consulting contract. effective transportation network. I O.H. Consider providing state of the art Conduct research and develop changes to Planning $ L 1999— technical services such as fiber optic unified development ordinance. 2000 lines which make the area more attractive to prospective coml. & industrial companies when planning other essential urban services. VII-9 Vill. Transportation Element 0 • • VIII. Transportation Issues ._ • The full impact of new development and changes in land use on transportation systems, and the cost of mitigating this impact, is not adequately addressed. • Efforts to improve flow of people and products are not sufficiently coordinated. • Alternative forms of transport are not given enough emphasis. • Strip development along thoroughfares. • The preservation of transportation corridors is inadequate. • The appearance of road arteries needs improvement. • The construction and maintenance of transportation facilities negatively impacts the environment, particularly water quality. • Driveway access to arterial roads are not sufficiently controlled. • Traffic volume exceeds the capacity of street networks. • The negative affects of new roads on neighborhoods. • Policy -1. TRAFFIC 1.1 The City and County shall initiate and support increased funding from state, and federal agencies to improve the flow of people and products to and in the City and County. • 1.2 The MPO and the urban area jurisdictions shall encourage the State and the federal authorities to provide interstate connections to areas south of the urban area. 1.3 The City and County shall work with the MPO and NCDOT to increase the capacity of the existing street network and other transportation facilities. 1.4 The County shall reduce the impact of new driveways on the roadway network. 1.5 The City and County shall require street connectivity and minimizing cul-de-sac development through collector street planning. 1.6 In order that existing and planned thoroughfares may operate adequately, all new development must adhere to the intent and policies of the Comprehensive Plan. 2. ALTERNATIVE FORMS OF TRANSPORTATION 2.1 The City and County shall support improved non -highway transportation facilities to access the area. VIII-1 2.2 City and County shall work with the NCDOT and the MPO to encourage alternative forms of is including regional rail, local transit, Transportation Demand Measures such as van -pooling and ride sharing, and an inter -modal transportation system. 2.3 New development and improvements to existing facilities shall make provision for a comprehensive network of bicycle and pedestrian facilities, including pedestrian causeways, breezeways and crossings, on collector streets and major arterials. These facilities will provide an alternative to the automobile. 3. AESTHETICS 3.1 The City and County, through the MPO, will encourage the State to improve the community through enhancements of streetscaping, including the preservation and use of indigenous flora, on new and existing streets. 3.2 The City and County shall ensure the preservation of adequate landscaping and tree protection for parking lots, sidewalks and in street right-of-ways for both public and private projects. 4. ENVIRONMENT 4.1 Priority shall be given to environmental concerns, in particular water quality and surface water management, when considering the construction and maintenance of transportation facilities. 4.2 Have regard for noise, air quality, and other environmental impacts on existing neighborhood areas when constructing and maintaining transportation facilities. 5. CORRIDOR PROTECTION • 5.1 Local government and the State shall identify and utilize sources of funds and incentives to purchase or preserve thoroughfare or rail corridors in a timely and equitable manner. Where necessary the City will participate in these improvements using impact fees, bonds and or tax increases. 5.2 City, County and State will investigate and use regulatory provisions for preserving thoroughfare and rail corridors. 5.3 The City and County will cooperate through an agreement to allow for the purchase of rail and road corridors • V1II-2 TRANSPORTATION IMPLEMENTATION ACTIONS I `tementalianAclPan ....Lietatis ar.: ,/, Adlu�sa ��' IaMIW ` �rsllii'i ,�lrrlir� ,e'x: fG�iJ �8 .... Y� . aa, a 1.0 Traffic 1.1.1 The Wilmington Urban Area Implement ongoing MPO $ 1998-on City of Established Metropolitan Planning operations Wilmington, process Organization(MPO) shall coordinate New Hanover programs aimed at improving the flow of Co., NCDOT, people and products. FHWA 1.1.2 The MPO's transportation planning MPO Staff currently $ Plan must be City of Established horizon shall be at a minimum 25 years to implementing 25 year updated Wilmington, process anticipate future growth. planning horizon every 5 years New Hanover Co., NCDOT 1.2.1 Create an interstate type facilities to MPO works with NCDOT, $$$$$ 1998-? MPO, New Project connect with I-20 at Florence, South NCDOT, FHWA, and SCDOT, Carolina. Florence SC to determine NCDOT, feasibility, desirability and FHWA funding of connection. 1.2.2 Create an interstate type facility to MPO works with NCDOT, $$$$$ 1998-? MPO, New Project connect to Charlotte, North Carolina. NCDOT, FHWA, and NCDOT, Charlotte NC to determine NCDOT, feasibility, desirability and FHWA funding of connection. 1.3.1 The City and County and NCDOT shall MPO conducts study and $$ 1999-on NCDOT, City Continuing implement the Urban Area Congestion makes recommendations to of Wilmington Project Management System and level of service NCDOT and the City of standard currently being developed by the Wilmington MPO. 1.3.2 All appropriate law enforcement agencies Increased enforcement of $$ Continuous State Highway Continuing shall improve the enforcement of traffic traffic laws Patrol, New Project laws. Hanover County Sheriffs Dept., City of Wilmington Police VIII-3 TRANSPORTATION IMPUMENTATION ACTIONS sh Iartl . v.._...,R �., sarty ..._ , .RegtrlrerX ...... z. 1.3.3 The City shall continue to improve the Continuos upgrade of traffic 1 $$ Continuous City of Continuing areas signal system, and to provide the operations data and Wilmington Project public with more information on this equipment. Proactive public program. information effort. 1.3.4 Continue to work with NCDOT to Continuos cooperation 1 $ Continuous City of Continuing improve that portion of the signal system Wilmington Project under their control. 1.3.5 Work with the MPO and NCDOT to Create Plans, Receive 1 $$$$$ 1999-on MPO New Project create interchanges at major intersections Funding, Implement responsible for throughout the street network. Where creating plans necessary the City will participate in and acquiring these improvements using impact fees, funding, City bonds and or tax increases. of Wilmington, NCDOT, and FHWA responsible for funding and implementing 1.3.6 The City, NCDOT and other appropriate Create Plans, Receive 1 $S$ 1999-on MPO and City agencies shall construct Separate bicycle Funding, Implement responsible for and pedestrian facilities where creating plans appropriate. and acquiring funding, City of Wilmington, NCDOT, and FHWA responsible for funding and implementing VIII-4 TRANSPORTATION IMP EMENTATION ACTIONS Iy��' lemerifalian Ail%nUelaiis arA ns �Fli j R�isca �.�,. >;?.. e ]�e a i61 3. tea.. ASltitwis �''•o�J, _ � 1.4.1 The County shall adopt more stringent Prepare, review and adopt 1 $ 1999 New Hanover Ongoing driveway standards. amendment to standards Co./UDO 1.4.2 The City and County shall enact land use Prepare, and adopt standards $ 1999 New Hanover Ongoing policies that minimize driveway access to - Co./UDO major thoroughfares 1.5.1 Develop collector street networks for Prepare collector street plans 1 $$ 1999- MPO, New Plans small areas. in cooperation with property 2001(?) Hanover Co., currently owners and affected City of created as neighborhoods. Adoption by Wilmington development appropriate board. Implemented is approved as areas built out by development and City of Wilmington 1.6.1 Conform to the Comprehensive Plan Ongoing process conducted 1 $ Continuous City of Continuous policies by examining all proposed by Planning Commissions, Wilmington, rezoning and subdivisions compliance Technical Review staff and New Hanover with the intents and policies of the plan. governing boards Co. 2.0 Alternative Forms of Transportation 2.1.1 Encourage the improvement of freight MPO, NH Co., City of 1 $ Continuous NCDOT, CSX Continuous and passenger rail service to Wilmington Wilmington and New Hanover County. 2.1.2 Encourage the growth of the North NH Co., City of Wilmington, $ Continuous NC Ports Continuous Carolina State Port at Wilmington with Authority, NC infrastructure improvements and Dept. of increased channel depths for shipping. Commerce, Army Corps. of Engineers 2.1.3 Encourage the growth of the Wilmington NH Co., City of Wilmington $ Continuous Airport Continuous 1 International Airport Authority, VIII-5 TRANSPORTATION IMPLEMENTATION ACTIONS NCDOT, City of Wilmington, NH Co. 2.2.1 Implement the Transportation Demand Plan identifies potential $$ 1999 MPO, City of Ongoing Measures program being developed by corporate participants and Wilmington, Wilmington Transportation Authority. users, design service, adopt NCDOT program, apply for Federal and State assistance, implement 2.2.2 Periodically evaluate the feasibility of all Monitor existing service and $ Continuous MPO, Continuous forms of public transportation including identify potential service Wilmington buses, trolleys, and light rail for or any or expansion and modification Transit all portions of the area, prepare a opportunities. Evaluate areas Authority. NH conceptual light rail master plan for the outside of the City through Co. urban area and participate in ongoing transportation planning Transportation NCDOT passenger rail and multi -modal process. feasibility studies. 2.2.3 Actively participate in ongoing NCDOT Support NCDOT efforts to high $$$$ 1998 - ? MPO, WTA, Ongoing passenger rail and multi -modal facilities provide passenger rail Wilmington, studies. Support funding objectives of service between Wilmington New Hanover the NCDOT in order to assure viability of and Charlotte. County the Charlotte to Wilmington passenger rail service. 2.3.1 Implement the recommendations of the Seek Federal, State and high $$$ Continuous NH Co. Continuous New Hanover County Bicycle Advisory Local funding to implement Bicycle Committee. the Plan. Develop and Advisory implement Capital Committee, Improvements schedule for MPO, City of construction of facilities. Wilmington, NCDOT 2.3.2 Strongly encourage the State to provide Request NCDOT to improve I high $ Continuous MPO, City of Continuous bicycle and pedestrian facilities in facilities for Bicycle and Wilmington, VIII-6 { TRANSPORTATION IMPEEMENTATION ACTIONS '- i ��Qa:...�.-:-2� tlM.�• I, 'lerrreri ntlon r�dm ,,,� �!►�P �.. � s�� :c •-.:`�. a. Q..ica".�'.r �..M beta otA�xi �� Ma, .., c.;; , Y w..rw� s�.:.�c �; l `/t .;. .., ` ��./w�<}}� 1. air a, ate:... , `��.. .�..::: . �°y«�.�y: °,tea. a�«• a.`. ".3 Y is�a �= d .e , v.�s �c � , ,::e:. .`C, Y"v. k ✓- � �.� •,`;ti3+'.. •s:.'.; ,...� ^v � A ..f e � 1. •i,.�,•3' � Y ih .. �� �� F,•: ^. �-�.�, . �. w, r -_ g, � �� \''Kx'J�' � � Tw3,?..y a 3r.u. .��: 'j �1 '"� ?P�,`��t/f�y ���4RN 3 �«y1:`�.mR, F��Y� 4. g�eq�554. �'1 �...,q .s.,�re.: '�,�'��! a�� �V•r \n.. .�a.....:i i _`�` ,...,E= ..Fy�� .. .. �b � .� , ...,<.... ., i^` �@c �#R`�fi ao. 3.a� �. t ., # u '•a�. . �.. conjunction with new construction and pedestrian access as they NCDOT improvements to transportation facilities. upgrade facilities 3.0 Aesthetics 3.1.1 The City and County will participate with Identify corridors needing 1' $$$ 2000-2005 MPO, City of New Project NCDOT to enhance streetscaping through enhancement, develop plan Wilmington, the use of regulations, impact fees, bonds for needed enhancements. NCDOT and or tax increases. Request funding from NCDOT for enhancements. Seek necessary local funding for enhancements and maintenance. 3.1.2 The City and County will participate with Identify corridors for * 1 $ 1999- MPO, City of New Project NCDOT to enhance streetscaping by enhanced streetscaping. Wilmington, Unified encouraging private initiatives. Coordinate maintenance and NH Co., Development ROW access issues with NCDOT Ordinance NCDOT. Enact regulations with incentives for improvements. Work to inform and organize private interests to improve corridors. 3.1.3 City and County shall enforce regulations Strictly enforce regulations $ 1999 City of Unified to create less obtrusive commercial to control billboards. Wilmington, Development signage and billboards. NH Co., Ordinance 3.2.1 Develop design standards, ordinances and Prepare and adopt specific $ 1999 City of Unified regulations that specifically identify the design standards and Wilmington, Development natural resources to be preserved with ordinances to reflect NH Co., Ordinance development and redevelopment.. community standards for resource protection to give specific guidance as to which resources to protect. VIII-7 TRANSPORTATION IMPLEMENTATION ACTIONS :y � -.d �n n `^`v � ) `�•- � � � �G ar��� � 4�, �%Y�y`A S, �� `F nn��'(,�+ y-, � � 4�`�'i � ,+ski`, =nn 4 E � tl� ..; 1��'i:"*[ 4.0 Environment 4.1.1 NCDOT shall adhere to or exceed to Review proposed NCDOT $ Continuous MPO, Cape Continuous State and Federal Environmental actions to insure compliance Fear Council regulations for the construction and with applicable regulations. of maintenance of transportation facilities. Governments NH Co. City of Wilmington 4.1.2 The City of Wilmington shall establish Prepare and adopt specific $$ 2000 City of Unified standards for the construction of design standards and Wilmington Development transportation facilities that exceed State ordinances to reflect Ordinance and Federal requirements for water community standards for quality and surface water management. resource protection to give specific guidance as to the required level of water quality protection. 4.1.3 The City and County shall seek Identify specific concerns $ 1999 City of Continuos legislation to require NCDOT to exceed with NCDOT's current Wilmington, State and Federal requirements for water practices and seek legislation NH Co., MPO, quality and surface water management. to address these issues. Local environmental groups and agencies 4.2.1 All proposals for the construction and All appropriate review $ Continuous NH Co. City Continuous maintenance of transportation facilities, boards shall review proposed of Wilmington shall be reviewed for noise and other local government and private environmental impacts on existing actions to insure compliance neighborhood areas. with applicable regulations. 5.0 Corridor Protection 5.1.1 Local and State Governments will The MPO and NCDOT will 1 $$$ 2000-2002 NCDOT, New Project identify thoroughfare and rail corridors as prepare Phased MPO, NH Co. completely as possible through Environmental studies after City of appropriate environmental studies. adoption of the Thoroughfare Wilmington Plan to identify proposed corridors as closely as possible in compliance with V 111-8 TRANSPORTATION IMP EMENTATION ACTIONS • N ` m lem�natinn.�4cll � � , � � ��` I) ��e or ,�atirins , �Hi h :R r�urc�s�'�, � .�S��t�,, bz � �.n vr"`ibi y,Slatas ;��. �" ..., � . > N•p� a.. 'lay.: °Y Y:: ..: �. . d. � x _t � f'. �,�: :�, r...:.. �$ 'w ..: :a�. �.. :N: ;r Sd .a: � t "�°� .. ,... '"'".� : `l .,:1`��`u '� � rn '°'�.abfi 1`y",,.e guidelines established by the National Environmental Protection Act (NEPA) 5.1.2 City, County and State will investigate Identify and enforce provis- $ 1999 NH Co. City New Project and use regulatory provisions for ions of State law that protect of Wilmington Unified preserving thoroughfare corridors. Thoroughfare Plan Corri- Development dors. Modify local ordinan- Ordinance ces where necessary to pro- vide the maximum amount of corridor protection allowed under State law. 5.1.3 The City and County will cooperate Establish an agreement $$ 1999 NH Co., City New Project through an agreement to allow for the between the City and the of Wilmington Unified purchase of rail and road corridors. County to allow the County Development to request that the City Ordinance proceed with necessary actions to improve the street network. VIII-9 IX. Community Infrastructure • I. Introduction This section of the Plan examines the City and County's public facilities, the basic systems that support life in an urban environment. The policies and implementation actions call for the provision of community facilities and services which meet the present and future physical, social and cultural needs of the population. II. Background The increasing cost of providing community services continues to be a community concern. Improving the level of services to areas that are currently under provided, or where the service levels could result in undue risk to human health as well as the natural environment and resources, has also been identified as an issue that needs to be addressed. A study, Fiscal Impact of Providing Services in 1998 and 2010 for Wilmington -New Hanover County (June 22, 1998) by Tischler & Associates, Inc., evaluated the fiscal impact of providing services in 1998 and 2010. It was concluded that in the year 2010 the City would benefit from existing economies of scale that allow the provision of urban services to contiguous geographies. Improved levels of service required by new development in the unincorporated areas of the County is expected to generate greater deficits. Consequently, while providing equitable levels of services across the planning area is a worthy objective, development densities and the cost of providing services to the more scattered development in the unincorporated areas of the County, is not fiscally attainable. A Capital Improvement Program should therefore be closely tied to a Growth Management Strategy that recognizes the benefits of preferred urban growth within an existing urban services area. Additional community concerns raised during the Plan development process also centered around the need for greater coordination, rationalization and consolidation of City, County and other agency programs for the planning, development and management of infrastructure and community services. IX-1 _hn'l • Issues • Uncoordinated, costly provision of non municipal services and facilities. • The high cost of infrastructure investment. • Storm water drainage problems caused by existing and future development. • Inadequate sewer and water services in some unincorporated areas. • Optimal location, use and maintenance of education facilities, some of which are overcrowded and need improvements. • Insufficient provision of community open space, recreation and cultural facilities. • Recognition of Downtown Wilmington as the regional cultural nucleus. • Maintenance of adequate police and tire services in unincorporated areas. • Increased waste management problem due to growth and development. • The proliferation of telecommunication towers. This section of the Comprehensive Plan examines the City and County's public community infrastructure • facilities, the basic systems that support life in the developed environment. The policies and implementation actions call for the provision of community facilities and level of services which meet the present and future physical, social, and cultural needs of the population. This community infrastructure policy and implementation action is fully consistent with the natural resource and land use elements of the Plan. Policies 1. FACILITY AND SERVICE PROVISION 1.1. Provide timely, cost-effective and efficient capital facilities and community infrastructure services based on the Growth Management Strategy and the Preferred Urban Structure. 1.2. Coordinate, rationalize and consolidate where appropriate, City, County and other governmental agencies programs for the provision and maintenance of infrastructure and community facilities and services. 1.3. Explore alternative forms of financing including impact fees, bonds, user fees, and tax increases for the infrastructure improvements needed to have a high quality level of service and to prevent a decline in the levels of service provided to the County -City residents. Infrastructure needs to be addressed in this effort shall include transportation, education, sewer, water, recreation, libraries, police, fire, stormwater management, and other services deemed to be appropriate. IX-2 • • 2. STORM WATER MANAGEMENT 2.1. Expand storm water management to include areas not incorporated in existing programs. 2.2. Develop a County stormwater management and water quality program that includes our adjacent ocean, river, and estuarine systems. 2.3. Develop a City and County stormwater management program that fairly balances the financial cost between existing and new development. 2.4. Prohibit and seek to eliminate collection systems that directly discharge stormwater to surface waters. 2.5. Ensure that drainage from land use activities has a rate of flow and volume characteristics as near to predevelopment conditions as possible to provide for the protection of our water quality. 3. SEWER AND WATER 3.1. Provide public sewer service to existing development in unincorporated areas that have inadequate and malfunctioning septic systems and package treatment plants. 3.2. Consolidate the City and County sewer and water system. 3.3. Ensure optimal use of sewage treatment facilities. 3.4. Ensure the provision of sufficient, affordable water and sewer services to proposed new service centers and industrial sites in the unincorporated areas of the Plan. 4. SCHOOLS AND EDUCATION 4.1. Give a higher priority to the maintenance and optimal use of existing education facilities. 4.2. Elementary schools and kindergartens should be encouraged to locate in areas where they would provide the maximum benefit to adjoining neighborhoods. 4.3. New schools shall be constructed by New Hanover County to maintain an adequate level of service. 4.4. Encourage greater coordination in planning and budgeting with the School Board and County and City government. 5. CULTURAL ARTS AND RECREATION 5.1. Emphasis on economically distressed City neighborhoods with inadequate facilities. 5.2. Recognize the Downtown as the cultural nucleus which nurtures, supports and strengthens cultural centers throughout the region. 5.3. Develop a joint master plan for a comprehensive system of open space, greenways, parks and trails throughout the city and county that will provide for both the present and expected population growth. IX-3 5.4. Preserve utility easements as part of the greenway system as passive open space areas and combine them with trails and trail access areas where possible. 6. POLICE AND FIRE SERVICES 6.1. Provide timely and adequate staffing and facilities to maintain and improve the level of police and fire services. 7. SOLID WASTE 7.1. Establish and maintain an environmentally responsible, cost effective system for managing solid waste, that protects public health, and provides adequate waste disposal capacity, mandatory solid waste collection and recycling services, and waste reduction opportunities. 7.2. Meet and exceed established waste reduction goal. 7.3. Continue to seek ways to reduce and manage the solid waste stream through establishment of countywide garbage pick-up, expanded recycling programs, encouraging composting, expanded hazardous waste pick-up/education, and multi jurisdictional cooperation. 7.4. Eliminate illegal trash dumping through strict monitoring and enforcement, including increased fines, signage program, rewards, and other means. 7.5. Continue to support and improve the County's innovative incinerator and landfill system. 8. COMMUNICATION • 8.1. Require telecommunication companies to share facilities through the joint use, and location of telecommunication equipment. IX-4 - COMMUNITY INFRASTRUCTUR IMPLEMENTATION ACTIONS l lem�ntaio3r: ctiv x.:tl'eiatls �¢ �K � ��•,�� v «: ,,.. >- r\ .... a''v t'a .�"v*.... i�` r" P..id� • � � �i «e� I}^Jj � «• a-�. . _ � �. z ,.. a�-"` � tsc �� : t • .... a\ „ r t \ �fi �� ibtt ., :k o tE :+� �'w� �«•\\, ate. a •€ ° n �'�, =.. .Q` , ,. 's£�. k.� s"«.o . �'3«:.,. \ �g ,�,� %� E.:. :_E 1.2... S,�a �E� t "\n�u. :. ..:9 � .¢ k'�.M � r+ .�.. .a..wt« rmpp 'E',.�i { `v "�rt�� a` .. ,�i.< , i\ '..:e �.... -> y, <> � v�*'T a:. yy, � � a :�7. '�`��'.¢.��.. �3 Q�i,`�� �'.^.3 �i �s�#,�\�S ..>a,�+.:. '`,�� .��.• a , 0.: �'e¢ •. A17 �,v -:� 4. a. � iw� N! 3 �� .a; �'a•.�: �.Y. c a. �k. `�' v, \�� � ��� a d �a.�C"�'. 1.0 Facility and Service Provision 1.1.1 Develop a program for the rigorous Fiscal Impact Study. 1 $$ 1999 City and County economic analysis of infrastructure and Develop a modal to measure the cost community facility investments, which impact of major infrastructure expansion considers the fiscal impact, level of due to annexation proposals. service, benefit, and the priority according to a preferred urban structure. 1.1.2 Develop a program for joint Investigate feasibility; formulate 1 $ 1999 City, County, financial public/private infrastructure investment conditions and required agreements; and institutions & developers. opportunities. design organizational structure 1.1.3 Develop a joint City -County Committee Committee review and implement 1 $ for 1999 City and County set up to review financing techniques and to program based on Committee Com- Committee with private recommend alternative financing recommendations. mittee sector representation. methods. review. $ to $$$ depend- ing on program size. 1.2.1 Develop interlocal agreements and Unified Development Ordinance 1 $ Current- City and County unified development codes to establish ly consistency. Ongoing 1.2.2 Develop a joint City and County Capital Capital Facilities Plan 2 $ 1990 City and County Facilities Plan. 1.2.3 Strengthen infrastructure inspection and Determine staffing requirements and 2 $ Current - County maintenance programs in the County. develop infrastructure prerequisites ly Ongoing 1.2.4 Develop guidelines for the interregional Develop criteria, conditions, 2 $ 2002 City and County sharing of sewer facilities when requirements and cost sharing formula. economically feasible. IX-5 COMMUNITY INFRASTRUCTURE IMPLEMENTATION ACTIONS ,lt leiii iatlontictidn en �:5 �:,. h::?: ctr.d41'% , . � , � y � .a\ # ,`w�fxc `\'� °£.'x kR \ £`Yec'4>.' @1...: .'.'�Y, .. .F � ?,�. ft:.k A. �F Z.IR vlfFli\ ia^'.: •.>+',.:t'� - w � Jhl{RI�IF �✓.. \ ."kid:; �',� E .: M.,,. ie' .�3 f;. v—.' Ord __, ..� F ,_A^. :..,, ......�.3•a. ... �.., y��x �.. ��� �� k3 r 2.0 Storm Water Management 2.1.1 Develop a storm water management and Develop a program proposal for 1 $ 1999 / County and City water quality program for existing and consideration. Program shall include 2000 new development in the County. adjacent ocean, river, and estuarine Coordinate and join this program with the system. existing City Program. Create program to prohibit and methods to eliminate collection systems that directly discharge stormwater to surface waters. Create program to ensure that drainage from land use activities has a rate of flow and volume characteristics as near to predevelopment conditions as possible to provide for the protection of our water quality. Develop a County storm water 1 $$-$$$ 1999 / County and City - management financing program. depend- 2000 Investigate using the Unified ing on Development Ordinance or similar size of program as a mechanism to carry out program. program. Coordinate and join this program with the existing City program. Ensure that there is an equitable and balanced financing program for existing and new development in the County and City. 3.0 Sewer and Water 3.1.1 Develop a Capital Facilities Plan for Capital Facilities Plan 1 $ 1999 - County and City areas that should be provided with sewer 2001 and water services based on environmental concerns, water quality COMMUNITY INFRASTRUCTURE IMPLEMENTATION ACTIONS ,... .. ar,. y. win <.�i \£• �. � r - ,u. t` .lv 2` �: � e>;.enF' ..n. n. -..vr .. �°.... 1 •. e�.�. :?x... ,,.. �, 'k •mow L .. `ac,0.m1W. .n. .h 4v 'Se.. r, n;.:oa � ., , ��\.�� �::, �' k i+=. ' �. a. .»;: .. .w.�.., ,' ..,,..-:.'�^YTA"� a .S ,wa• ,,..� .». ,:.... .�� �'�`_�:; �`„,u�u�, -.. ..H �;Y.. ,.��35, Z; A. �m .a'.�y w �. �..m�xi... �. .�"�::.:��s�..: ^a' ..�gr, td�"'x�aa aM�x: a�=.,„s: tr*re' `eve concerns and servicing costs. 3.2.1 Develop County standards for the Develop design standards 2 $ 1999 County and City installation of utilities that are consistent to those of the City 3.3.1 Develop fiscal and environmental Develop and evaluate alternative 3 $ 2001 City, County and State responsible strategies for the long term strategies. management and disposal of sewage sludge. 3.4.1 On completion of the Thoroughfare Plan Review zoning and prepare land use 2 $ 2001 City and County update, review the existing zoning and its alternatives for consideration with next potential to develop into service centers, update of the Comprehensive Plan. as well as the feasibility and cost of providing water, sewer and other infrastructure services to these areas. 3.4.2 Give higher priority to the servicing of Identify priority areas. 1 $$ Ongoing City and County existing and new industrial sites. Incorporate in City and County annual Servicing Program 4.0 Schools and Education - Infrastructure Facilities 4.1.1 Provide annual funding for the sustained Include funding in annual Education 1 $$ Ongoing Board of Education maintenance of facilities that serve both budget. Ensure that school facilities in the existing and future education needs of older areas of the City and County the community. receive adequate maintenance. 4.1.2 Plan and locate schools to allow for Determine needs; develop location 2 $ Ongoing Board of Education future expansion, and to ensure better and criteria and standards. shared use of the facilities and campus. 4.1.3 Develop an understanding of the long Anticipate needs and technological 1 $ Ongoing Education agencies term costs/implication of computer trends, and consider adaptable systems technology. IX-7 COMMUNITY INFRASTRUCTURE IMPLEMENTATION ACTIONS " a, ,.a, °a a < f:*fr a T lem�ntalloM Acxiox� �^--�s�^..n: Y �'.t.a c.' x�.. .•&ks� - 3. �'a.. '` x l�wi,` i. h i'=;±Y t' �,q ,+` ,.'..� �.,:.. ', ��k'`. 4.2.1 Determine the needs and plan for the Determine needs; develop location 1 $ Ongoing Board of Education optimal location of elementary schools criteria and standards. and kindergartens. 4.3.1 Explore the use of alternative forms of Conduct a study. Create a committee to 1 $$ to $$$ New Board of Education financing for improving New Hanover oversee study and carry out depend- New Hanover County County Schools. recommendations. ing on Schools size of Other County and City program pertinent government branches. 4.3.2 Adequately fund the New Hanover Coordinate facilities program with the 1 $$$ Ongoing Board of Education County School new school facility other County and City branches of as result New Hanover County program. government. Create a quality control of Schools program to ensure high quality passed Other County and City construction. school pertinent government bond branches. 4.3.3 Provide a greater emphasis for athletic Upgrade existing and build high quality 1 $$ to $$$ Ongoing Board of Education facilities at existing and new schools. athletic fields, ball fields, tracks, pools, depend- as result New Hanover County gymnasiums, outdoor playgrounds for ing on of Schools school children, with improved sodding, size of passed Other County and City and related facility improvements, program school pertinent government including maintenance. bond branches. 4.4.1 Coordinate new school facilities and Hold regular meetings with concerned 1 $ Needs to Board of Education maintenance upgrade program. parties for increased coordination with be New Hanover County above 4.0 items with New Hanover ongoing Schools County Schools, School Board and other Other County and City pertinent branches of County and City pertinent government government. Create benchmarks for branches monitoring progress. 5.0 Cultural Arts and Recreation 5.1.1 Prepare and implement a joint Prepare and Implement a 3 $$ 1999 City and County City/County Greenway/Open Space Plan Greenway/Open Space Plan. for the establishment of a contiguous Determine requirements, funding, IX-8 • 1W COMMUNITY INFRASTRUCTURE IMPLEME14TATION ACTIONS F -. :I ..,, k •.. � �.°....°'. V •li Jvi3 ,pvw\ r^v t': T^ A .:; s.. ,.. � . ,F.. A. za ...x� -v e ..s x_ p.. 'i�_,ia sl.A ;.,v a+ � rc:... ..... n ... wK **Kc<'Y.:-:t b' As, Y. � w.. . K .� 'va $g :.... ��'.i�':�,J.. ��.. .in ,...> \ F>....a vo � J..., s vp �. � \ :4�.a ..... 13v� �. :10• ..o- H �, >tK }.II �.., p'.. � xit�6 '� J vC . . , v..' �'. "i \�"^ ..... ;:tia �w{w \x, .. �. -\vv Ai C".. �� �:.." .. c ::. �J, /�•u � lr7f%G�+I1 �,i"'a - �Y•'"C � �• ...; � � J. �,$v`^0` A�'.�' S v ...?.x.. 3�» .. .'F.. '� we i..... J`'t .,....bC ...Y`.: ..a:. L �........ �T � 6 s., Y a" >. ,n.. .....« � , i",a ..�•i � y'ro- a.-aa\z�,.a.4.�-.a.�.,-.. ?� ... .... ... •,. �+ •YN•',....:. .. X � .. .� x v\i\ f ...v:.. f \ \..:a.... �w.�k?'aea..i•„.Fq.�..i'' ����"��\�.�'�k. .sv... v :..'. .:, y..:..-x ... .. .wS. !v'�. a �`�>�` ..�fFR J .�$Y`. .. ., ... .... k'�' t'zt II •3' � •:.ti. .,,..x. 3" ��:� � a,�,�Y ;ear. .,x, .:^ww»�..<: ��v.A\v�/ii, .�.+„c`�i .� e� "r.� xvv,a awc.. v�a�"�. v,.c�.»ha^eW, ro •�,J �«v><..�ya ., .� f. . X�..�� x X�`i`.`�'s ��:3,°: Greenway System that links acquisition and protection options; neighborhoods to community activity include trails. Insure that plan provides centers, and serves the recreational and for both present and expected population open space needs of the community. growth-. 5.1.2 Continue to implement, fund and join Prepare and Implement a joint 1 $$ Ongoing County together the County and City Park Plans. Greenway/Open Space Plan. 5.1.3 Develop public/private partnerships for Prepare and Implement a 1 $ 1999 City and County the provision of recreation facilities Greenway/Open Space Plan. 5.1.4 Establish, in the unincorporated areas, Prepare and Implement a 1 $ 1999 County requirements for commercial and Greenway/Open Space Plan. residential development to reserve land for open space/recreation or provide a fee in lieu. 5.1.5 Develop different acquisition/protection Prepare and Implement a 1 $ 1999 City, County and State options for significant sites for open Greenway/Open Space Plan. Include space/recreation, such as purchase, utility easement preservation as part of public/private partnerships, conservation the greenway system as passive open easements and conservation trusts. space areas and combine them with trails and trail access areas where possible. 5.1.6 Develop a public participation process Public Participation Plan 1 Existing 1999 City and County for the acquisition and preservation of process significant sites for open to be space/recreation. reviewed 5.1.7 Continue to expand and enlarge existing Determine expected future growth and 1 $$$ Ongoing County library facilities to maintain the current needs. level of service to the community. 5.1.8 Continue to support and improve the Determine expected future growth and 2 $$ Ongoing County museum facilities. needs and formulate a long term IX-9 COMMUNITY INFRASTRUCTURE' IMPLEMENTATION ACTIONS tr�if .Rr_ Im le»ieniatn•.Acta,� A, :; __. ,,. �P �,y .�, a `��,, n.. �;:. De'Is t I zed: , • � .:. � _ Al .. '.. .,e 5� �•� .,.. , „a.,„�„ `�„s., s'*��,3 � ...�.a. �i. �•. '^:?nac. .FR oitr' ��t ., , , � <��.... '�`w, �-tT- a. ���. ..,. m «. Y ... .x , a .: ,. ... ,.. �. :� �•' -q. .. y., r. ,nr... �h^� # 3::�?n i"l". -'' -:�� 1`. r:: ?� . development strategy. 5.1.9 Investigate the feasibility of providing a Determine needs, requirements and 1 $$ Ongoing City, County and convention center to serve the needs of feasibility. surrounding local the community and its surrounding area. authorities 5.1.10 Investigate the feasibility of providing a Determine needs, requirements and 2 $ Ongoing City, County and performing arts center to serve the needs feasibility surrounding local of the community and its surrounding authorities area. 5.1.11 Encourage the provision of social and Determine needs and priorities; and 2 Ongoing Advocacy group(s) for the cultural opportunities for the aging identify opportunities. elderly, City, County population. 5.2.1 Support and implement the goals and 1 $$ Ongoing City, County, DARE, Inc., recommendations of the Wilmington Downtown Plan: Vision 2020; the Cape Fear River Corridor Plan; and DARE, Inc. that reinforces the cultural importance of the Downtown area. 5.2.2 Develop additional and support existing Identify opportunities; develop and 1 $ Ongoing City, County, programs that specifically promote, implement programs strengthen and support Downtown Wilmington as the regional cultural center. 6.0 Police and Fire Services 6.1.1 Plan and provide staffing and facilities Determine projected future needs. 1 $$ Annual City and County for police and fire services at least proportionate to the growth in the community. 7.0 Solid Waste IX-10 0 0 0 a COMMUNITY INFRASTRUCTURE -IMPLEMENTATION ACTIONS l .0 7�m�ntatJon Actlort �•,. a � .�... .� � •w�x. �� ��, � ,,.,, ..;>< -.:.r. :. rb,.. ..v �ia�i�i�r� r t�ians � ;�x ... 1 ! :a.. 8�{@� 2. •.a±xy�. �_ k �Mx� �' � y R �iYri � � �.3 .... •.. .Q.,..w .. f .., r'z" 3. H''S : .i ?ru<w�ti- iw...: �;.'t� :. AZ 'Pa�+ •... 6. ,:h ��cc: � �.. , , ....r.. � :.'�� <... . ? wt.... �.`. Sc:,. s ... ..�.:.: k. ..... �. ..x ... .<...�.a aA ? \..uC. �a.ti�v. `.. .. �...... .> o- x�' � .ti. H,; S �.�:i . :� � F.: ,•sec.. >'�. Mi .l.: a �d...... . •...>S � a`•e... � t.,.,.. � .�...i �`... \.. .xx.. �\..... 4,,.. .. as< ... � \. p.� )./.riyy�°'a" '�.. .� .: V ` �... .iT t -' M.f Jj .a� ..... � "�.. .�V. Yy �k Swii..:-'Bn S nl },. `•tc2N...�...-:K .P<t.�.u:"C ai < x. ..�� Rie \ ::� �. '�, �'. r'^^ a'� ,.,., x '� F -:: a.,.-..�.u. x ..s xa�>.. Cea Vim..: L3�P -... .. .:. .�.., teH, {.v d....� ,. a.i s. ,. .`"', �..� �. 1 �`sY,:: ,'� �:.� k�a� \� •'.�vi�e , i'.ft�1?l�"�3R,'•,F`.. .`a<$\.;.,, x:�>=�»y�:.d�`iYx `a,�. Vie. .. y�� ��•7[��L,.�>x�l�••_'�� p.�`,m�.. .. a�i,,:. w �hiA.�k`e•�� t���� :?3.<, .. 5.. Sri .«� `�A�. a�S ��'§; �'i1 �. y'v «..•�.::x ��? �^ ..,. .4�t�4� .. `a�+a 9wx}A ��•H�2,.-x"'N>.�:�u�.� ..i.,va� ;�4. >��:'. 7.1.1 The County and City together with the Comprehensive Solid Waste 1 $ Ongoing City, County and the Towns of Carolina Beach, Kure Beach, Management Plan. Include methods to Towns of Carolina Beach, and Wrightsville Beach will continue eliminate illegal trash dumping by strict Kure Beach, and their joint update of the Comprehensive monitoring and enforcement; increased Wrightsville Beach Solid Waste Management Plan every 3 fines, signage program, rewards and years, and establish programs and set other means. Include continued support goals for the management and reduction and improve innovative incinerator and of solid waste for the next 10 years. landfill sytem 7.1.2 Expand local government recycling. Address with the Comprehensive Solid 1 $$ Ongoing City and County Waste Management Plan. Including: expand collection programs; encourage commercial recovery programs which focus on paper fiber materials; promote local private recovery/recycling initia- tives; encourage composting; expand hazardous waste pick-up and education; and promote local construction - demolition recycling -recovery programs. 8.0 Communication 8.1.1 Amend regulations to require'the joint Amend regulations; develop standards 2 $ 1999 City and County use and location of equipment on existing and requirements. telecommunication towers and other public and private structures. IX-11 X-A. Housing �-------- ---------------------------------------------- Issue 1. The City minimum housing program should be improved. The County should establish adopt a minimum housing code and enforcement program. 2. There is a documented need affordable housing, particularly for low and moderate income residents. 3. The City and County need to ensure that they are receiving the maximum amount of federal and state financial opportunities for community and economic development. 4. There is a need to provide increased amount of affordable rental housing. 5. There are an estimated 800 homeless persons County wide with the majority living in the City. 6. Neighborhood residents need a mechanism to voice their concerns regarding growth and change, and the County and City needs an efficient way to provide information to residents. There is a need for adequate housing for the special needs population, elderly, and disabled in the City and County. 8. With the growth of UNC-Wilmington and Cape Fear Community College, students will need adequate on and off campus housing. • P°licy .1. MINIMUM HOUSING PROGRAM The City shall enhance the minimum housing program. The County shall adopt a minimum housing program with enforcement. 2. AFFORDABLE HOUSING PROGRAMS The County and City shall continue to support and enhance a broad range of affordable housing programs. Explore alternative forms of financing including impact fees, bonds, user fees, and tax increases for affordable housing. 3. MAXIMIZE FEDERAL AND STATE FUNDING The County and City shall maximize funding opportunities from federal and state sources for community and economic development. 4. RENTAL AFFORDABLE HOUSING The City and County shall increase affordable rental housing. 5. HOMELESS The County and City shall cooperate with non-profit organizations to provide temporary and transitional shelter to persons who are homeless and enhance a job referral program. 6. NEIGHBORHOOD ASSOCIATIONS •The County, City, and residents shall be encouraged to use neighborhood associations for outreach information and education. X-A-1 `. 7. SPECIAL NEEDS AND ELDERLY The City and County shall cooperate with non-profit organizations to ensure an adequate supply of housing for special needs, the elderly, and the disabled. 8. ADEQUATE UNCW AND CFCC STUDENT HOUSING Working together the County, City, UNC-Wilmington, and Cape Fear Community College shall meet student housing needs. • • X-A-2 0 0 0 HOUSING IMPLEMENTATION ACTIONS Implementation Action Details for Acdlons Priority Resources Fiscal Responsibility Status 1 2", Required Year(s) a-as-sas 1.0 Minimum Housing Program 1.1 The City shall improve its 1.1.1 Develop code enforcement 1 $$ Current City Underway minimum housing enforcement strategies that emphasize program. improvements in housing quality and preservation. A balance is recognized between expenses to property and home owners, and better living conditions for occupants. 1.2 The County shall adopt a 1.2.1 Draft and adopt a minimum 1 $ '99= 01 County None minimum housing code and housing code. A balance is establish an enforcement recognized between expenses to program. property and home owners, and better living conditions for occupants. _ 1.2.2 Establish position(s) and hire 1 $$ '99 '01 County None code enforcement officer(s). 1.3 The City and County shall ensure Ensure that there is adequate 1 $ On- City and County Ongoing City. that there is strong code regulations and code enforcement going New for County. enforcement to remedy areas and staff to remedy this situation. See City. lots with abandonded vechicles, 1.1 for City and 1.2 for County. 199= 01 trash, debris, and boarded up for housing. County 2.0 Affordable Housing Programs 2.1 Increase support of affordable 2.1.1 Home Ownership Pool loan 1 $ existing On- City Ongoing housing programs. program (HOP) $$ expanded going County Direct Loans and Home Loans for programs HUD housing rehabilitation Private Lending XA-3 HOUSING IMPLEMENTATION ACTIONS Implementation Action Details for Actions Priority Resources Fiscal Responsibility Status 1", 2", Required Year(s) 31, $_SS_SS$ Fannie Mae Lease Purchase Institutions Project Home Community Development Block Grant Program Home Investment Partnership 2.1.2 Establish an affordable 2 '02-'03 City, County None housing advocacy coalition with Nonprofit housing wide representation. providers 2.2 Investigate and act upon ways to 2.2.1 Establish a mortgage revenue 1 $ study '9941 City None increase affordable housing bond program to provide affordable $$ program County supply and ownership for low and housing backed by appropriate moderate income residents. sources. Conduct a study with recommendations. 2.2.2 Establish a land trust 1 $ study On- city Ongoing program for affordable housing land $$ program going County acquisition. Conduct a study with recommendations. 2.2.3 Encourage participation in the 1 On- city Ongoing down payment assistance program. going County With the aid of grants, this program NC Housing Finance allows down payment assistance for Agency closing costs. 2.2.4 Investigate methods to reduce 1 On- City Ongoing development costs for affordable going County housing. Review development review process and codes. Make appropriate changes to Unified Development Ordinance. 0 4 0 • HOUSING IMPLEMENTATION ACTIONS Implementation Action DetailsforActions ` Priority Resources Fiscal Responsibility Status 1', 2s, Required Year(s) 3" 3-ss-3sS 2.2.5 Expand existing education 2 $$ expanded '02 '03 City None programs on affordable housing _ program County opportunities, including home ownership for first time buyers. 2.2.6 Set a target for future 2 $ study '02'03 City None increased homeownership County emphasizing first time home buyers. Non-profit housing Conduct a study with providers recommendations. Private lending institutions 2.2.7 Encourage commercial banks 1 $$ expanded '9941 City None to participate in a below market rate program County mortgage interest program. Private lending institutions 2.2.8 Inventory available sites as a 2 $ '02'03 City None resource for new residential develop- County ment and provide incentives for the development of new housing. Con- duct a study with recommendations. 2.2.9 Investigate how to strengthen 2 $ '02'03 City None partnerships with for profit County developers to provide affordable housing including density bonuses that provide additional affordable housing units. Conduct a study with recommendations include with Unified Development Ordinance. 2.2.10 Conduct study with 2 $ '02'03 City None recommendations regarding zoning County changes that require mixed income residential developments. XA-5 HOUSING IMPLEMENTATION ACTIONS Implementation Action Details for Actions Priority Resources Fiscal Responsibility Status 1, 2", Required Year(s) 3" $-SS-SSS 2.2. 11 Conduct study with 2 $ '02-'03 City None recommendations regarding: County incentives for an employer -assisted housing program to assist development of affordable housing. 2.2.12 Cooperate with the 1 $ coordin- On- City Ongoing Wilmington Housing Authority in ation going Wilmington Housing the maintenance, renovation and $$$ Jervay Authority construction of affordable housing. project and other projects 2.2.13 Encourage scattered site 1 '99201 City County None affordable housing. 3.0 Maximize Federal and State Funding 3.1 Consider creating a consolidated Discussion between City and County 1 $ 199-101 City None County and City Community and staffs and elected officials. County Development Block Grant Consult with HUD. program. 3.2 Insure that federal and state Use existing staff. 1 On- City Ongoing community and economic going County development funding opportunities are being maximized. 4.0 Rental Affordable Housing 4.1 Improve and expand the City Conduct study with 1 $ study On- City Ongoing rental rehabilitation loan recommendations. $$ program going program. HOUSING IMPLEMENTATION ACTIONS Implementation Action Details for Actions Priority Resources Fiscal Responsibility Status 1", 2", Required Year(s) P $-SS-$S$ 4.2 Establish a County rental Conduct study with 1 $ study '99-'01 County None rehabilitation loan program. recommendations. $$ program 4.3 Ensure that there is funding for a Conduct study with t $ study 199101 City Ongoing rent -to -own program in both the recommendations. Determine Decide County City and County. This program appropriate level of funding. funding level Non-profit housing would enable a renter to apply range $ to $$ providers rent payments towards the purchase of a home. 4.4 Explore the possibility that Conduct study with 3 $ study '04205 County None apartment complexes that are recommendations. $$ program city converted to condominiums provide affordable units, or payments into a City and County affordable housing or non-profit housing program. 1 5.0 Homeless 5.1 Expand programs for homeless Continued funding and support for 1 $ existing On- City, County, HUD, Ongoing shelters with adequate quality Continuum of Care and other related program going coordinating with accommodations with emphasis programs. Ensure that the areas of Non profit housing on housing for the mentally the City and County that have high 1 $$ expand '99201 providers including, None for disabled. homeless concentrations receive program Good Shepherd expanded specific neighborhood outreach to House, Salvation program remedy the challenge. Army, and Cape Fear Rescue Mission. 5.2 Expand job referral program for Through the Continuum of Care 2 $$ expanded '02-'03 Through None for the homeless. process address counseling and job program City, County expanded referral program to assist homeless Non -profits such as program persons and households achieve self the Good Shepherd sufficiency. House. XA-7 j.. HOUSING IMPLEMENTATION ACTIONS Implementation Action Details for Actions Priority Resources Fiscal Responsibility Status 1r 2", Required Year(s) ' s-ss-sss 6.0 Neighborhood Associations 6.1 Create neighborhood guidelines. Conduct a study with 1 $ study '99= 01 County None recommendations. Discussion on: $$ public City methods for public outreach; the outreach Including: Council of impact of new development on Neighborhoods adjoining neighborhoods, such as Association and other density; housing by type; home similar organizations ownership; rental concerns; and drainage. Create booklet. 7.0 Special Needs and Elderly 7.1 Establish a housing program for Conduct study with 2 $ for study '02= 03 City None the special needs, elderly, and recommendations for program County disabled, that is integrated creation; include congregate living $$ program Non-profit housing throughout the community. arrangements for the elderly, and providers other special needs populations, e.g. Private business nursing homes. Study how to integrate with private sector. 7.2 Modify zoning regulations where Conduct a study with 2 $ for study '02= 03 City None appropriate to encourage housing recommendations to include with County for the special needs, elderly, Unified Development Ordinance. disabled. 8.0 Adequate UNCW and CFCC Student Housing 8.1 Develop an on and off campus Conduct a study with 3 $ '04-105 City None student housing program for recommendations. County UNC-Wilmington. UNCW HOUSING IMPLEMENTATION ACTIONS Implementation Action Details for Actions Priority Resources Fiscal Responsibility Status lY� 1" Required Years) 3^' „a-as-sss 8.2 Develop an on and off campus Conduct a study with 3 $ '04= 05 City None student housing program for Cape recommendations. CFCC Fear Community College. X-B. Economy ------------------------------------------------------ Comprehensive Flan Issue 1. There needs to be improved economic diversification, and continued effort to attract employers that have high paying jobs. 2. Continue efforts to attract and retain business to economically distressed areas. 3. To remain competitive into the next decade the State port will need to deepen its harbor, improve inland highway and rail access, and upgrade the terminal. 4. The area could increase water dependent marine related employment opportunities with: marine technology; aquaculture; the NC Aquarium at Fort Fisher; and boat manufacturing and marinas. 5. The Wilmington International Airport needs to expand to improve its competitiveness while working to ensure community compatiability. 6. There is a need to balance tourism with a diversified economy. 7. There is a need to increase workforce preparedness, especially for the marginally trained and under educated. Policy 1. GENERAL ECONOMY •Develop a coordinated economic development strategy to attract high paying employers, that is economically diverse and environmentally mindful. 2. IMPROVING ECONOMICALLY DISTRESSED AREAS The City and County with non profit and for profit organizations shall work to attract and retain business in areas that are economically distressed. 3. WILMINGTON STATE PORT The County and City shall work with the State Port in achieving mutually acceptable development goals. 4. MARINE ECONOMY The City and County shall support the water dependent marine economy. 5. AIRPORT The County and City shall cooperate with the New Hanover County Airport Authority to increase the competitiveness, of the Wilmington International Airport while being mindful of the compatibility with adjacent businesses and homes. 6. TOURISM The City and County shall encourage a balance of tourism as part of a diversified economy. 7. SKILLED WORKFORCE AND EDUCATION The County and City and private sector shall cooperate with schools to develop a properly trained work force • with employable skills. X-B-1 ECONOMY IMPLEMENTATION ACTIONS Implementation Action Details for Actions Priority Resources Fiscal Responsibility Status 11" 2"", . Required Yeru(s) 1.0 General Economy 1.1 Establish a task force with Select lead agency, or consultant to 1 $ 199= 01 Lead agency or consultant None a mission to attract high guide process. With representation that should paying diverse employers Meet and create framework to proceed. include: and consider incentives. Resolve who would compose task force; Private sector include private sector. Wil. Industrial Develop. , Inc. Address topic for set time. Co. Commissioners, City End with recommendations to proceed Council after task force finished. Cape Fear Tomorrow UNCW, CFCC, Public Schools Chamber of Commerce, Black Cham. Com. Wilmington State Port Wil. International Airport Small Business Coalition Wil. New Han. Co. Commun. Devel. Corp. Small Business & Tech. Develop. Center — UNCW Partners for Economic Inclusion 1.2 Enhance a County -City Select lead public agency or consultant 1 $ 199= 01 Lead public agency and or None economic development to do study with recommendations. consultant. program. Include these following items. 1.2.1 Strengthen existing public and private programs that target existing business for new expansion and job creation, including small businesses. 1.2.2 Establishing a Research and Development Park including infrastructure, with business connections to UNCW and CFCC. ECONOMY IMPLEMENTATION ACTIONS Implementation Action Details jor Actions Priority `Resources Fiscal Responsibility . Status 11, 24`, Required Year(s) $-$$-$$$ 1.2.3 Investigate establishing a local branch of the Office of Industrial Extension Service in the County. 1.2.4 Increase public outreach and improve awareness of the importance of business and industry to the tax base. 1.3 Investigate expanding the Conduct a study with recommendations. 1 $ study 199 '01 UNCW with NC State and NC Program engineering cooperative Cost and logistics of expanding the A&T coordination. currently is education program engineering program. $$ ex - panded with between UNCW, NC Consider enhancing ties to local UNCW and State and NC A&T. business. program NC State. 1.4 Enhance: promotion of 1.4.1 Strengthen promotion and 1 $ Ongoing Wilmington Regional Film Ongoing the local film industry; incentives on behalf of the City and Commission coordinating with: and education County. Private film industry; opportunities. Meet with Task Force regarding City and County. continuous updates on "Film Guidelines." Establish and improve existing procedures for location filmmaking with Police, Fire and government. Create program to improve existing public relations with the community regarding on -location film making. Improve website, update computer programs with maintenance. 1.4.2 Strengthen and nurture the 2 $$ Ongoing UNCW Ongoing UNCW Film Studies education program. a: R ECONOMY IMPLEMENTATION ACTIONS Implementation Action Details for Actions Priority Resources Fiscal Responsibility Status 1' 20', Required Year(S) 34 1.5 Consider establishing a Conduct a study on the best method to 2 $ study '02= 03 An existing agency or None program with incentives achieve this with recommendations for consultant to conduct study for larger companies to setting up program. possibly with New Han. Co. assist employees with Regional Medical Center, or high quality affordable UNCW, or the Early child day care. Childhood Faculty of CFCC with the County and City. 1.6 Develop a program to Conduct a study with recommendations 2 $ '02= 03 Likely private initiative with None attract professional sports. for program creation. possible government partnership. 2.0 Improving Economically Distressed Areas 2.1 Use of Community Identify and prioritize projects. Act 1 $$ Ongoing City Ongoing Development Block Grant upon proposals that have real potential County funds for programs and to create jobs. Insure that money is activities that create jobs leveraged to increase success. for low and moderate income persons. 2.2 Encourage and support Research: which existing businesses 1 $ 199-101 City None the federal Small have contracts with the Federal Gov't. Wilmington Industrial Business Administration Educate potential clients regarding Development, Inc. HUBZone program to program. Coordin-ate possible: attract business and jobs relocation, and expansion of existing to the economically businesses. challenged areas of Wilmington. ECONOMY IMPLEMENTATION ACTIONS Implementation Action Details for Actions Priority Resources : Fiscal Responsibility Status Ir 2w". , Required Year(s) 3r° $-$$-$$$ 2.3 Encourage the creation of Expand family resource centers and 2 $ Ongoing City, Including: Wilmington Ongoing family resource centers programs into distressed areas. Support existing Community Coalition and programs. existing programs. Examples include '02= 03 the Bottom, and Long Leaf Park $$ None Resource Center. expanded program 2.4 Encourage public and Create flexible regulations in the 2 $ 199 101 City None private business Unified Development Ordinance. County partnerships for the Private Business development of speculative properties. 2.5 Ensure that the economic Study is underway and 2 Project Ongoing City Ongoing revitalization of recommendations will be forthcoming. could Wilmington Industrial Greenfield Industrial Park range Development, Inc. occurs. from $ to $$$ 3.0 Wilmington State Port 3.1 Support the Wilmington Using the ports Master Capital 1 $ for Ongoing Wilmington State Port Ongoing State Port facilities to Development Plan, follow the review- Federal agencies, including create a more competitive recommendations; including, deepening ing study US Army COE shipping port. the shipping channel, and upgrading the and NC Dept. Commerce terminal. Follow the recommendations coordin- NC DOT of the Transportation section of the ation. CSX Railroad Comprehensive Plan for improved City and N. H. County inland highway and rail access. $$$ for Brunswick Co. carrying out the recom- menda- tions. 3.3 Balance the needs of the Adhere to Cape Fear River Corridor 3 $ Ongoing Wilmington State Port Ongoing State Port with the Plan recommendations. Review study City and N. H. County recreational boating on and coordinate with concerned parties. Brunswick Co. the Cape Fear River. Coast Guard J. . ECONOMY IMPLEMENTATION ACTIONS Implementation Action Details for Actions Priority Resources Fiscal Responsibility Status 1",2^', Required Years) 3rd 4.0 Marine Economy 4.1 Support aquaculture 4.1.1 Enhance promotion of the 2 $ Ongoing UNCW Center for Marine Program research and marine environmentally friendly aquaculture NC Sea Grant Program exists, technology. research technology. NC Marine Trades Services would con- sider increased Promotion. 4.1.2 Increase financial support of the 2 $$ '02 '03 Cape Fear Community College Would con - existing marine technology education NC Marine Trades Services sider program at CFCC. increased financial support. 4.2 Support the expansion Work with the Aquarium to ensure 1 $$ Ongoing NC Aquarium at Fort Fisher Ongoing effort of the NC smooth expansion effort of building County Aquarium at Fort Fisher. facilities. Chamber of Commerce 4.3 Support the efforts of Enhance the existing promotion, 2 $ Ongoing Small Business and Ongoing marine trade services for advertisement, and public outreach. Technology Development expanded boat manufac- Center - UNCW turing, and boating Coastal Waterways Heritage services such as marinas. Tourism Council 4.4 Address the of loss of Conduct a study with recommendations 2 $ '02= 03 Coastal Waterways Heritage None public accessible boat by consultant or agency. Tourism Council slips and marinas to Small Business and traveling boaters. Technology Development Center — UNCW County, City 0 i 0 ECONOMY IMPLEMENTATION ACTIONS Implementation Action Details for Actions Priority Resources Fiscal Responsibility Status - Y, 2", Required Year(S) 3rd $-$$-$$$ 5.0 Airport 5.1 Encourage airport Support the airport master plan with 1 $ On -going Wilmington International Ongoing economic growth and regard to economic growth. Address Airport development. compatibility with the Land Use and County Transportation policies of the City Comprehensive Plan. Coordinate with concerned parties. 6.0 Tourism 6.1 Promote Wilmington and Conduct a study with recommendations 2 $ '02 '03 Possibly use a consultant for None the County as an area for on how to increase heritage -historic study with: Carolina Heritage heritage and historic preservation tourism; study likely Tourism Network preservation tourism. conducted by a consultant. Cape Fear Convention and Visitors Bureau 1898 Foundation 6.2 Support promotion of Support the existing promotion. 2 $ On -going Coastal Waterways Heritage Ongoing Wilmington as a boating Tourism Council with destination hub and NC Marine Trades Services related eco-tourism activity. 7.0 Skilled Workforce and Education 7.1 Enhance support for 7.1.1 Expand the existing Dual 1 $$ 199 '01 Cooperation with: Exists but school and work Enrollment high school and community Cape Fear Community College needs pro - programs with Cape Fear college program that emphasizes New Hanover Co. Board of motion; Community College and vocation training. Advertise to students Education consider New Hanover Co. Public and parents. Pender County increased Schools, particularly with Shaw University financial vocation emphasis. support. 3 ECONOMY IMPLEMENTATION ACTIONS Implementation Action Details for Actions Priority Resources Fiscal Responsibility Status Is, 2r, Required Year(s) 3td $-$$-$$$ 7.1.2 Expand the cooperative public 1 $$ 199= 01 New Hanover Co. Board of Exists but school and work internship programs Education needs for students. Develop a cooperative NC State Dept. of Commerce promo - agreement. Expand the Job Ready Volunteer efforts Cape Fear tion. internship program between business Partners for Career Success. and the New Hanover County Public Unions. Schools. 7.2 Expand a job skills Expand the Human Resources 1 $$ 199-101 Cape Fear Community College Available program for the post high Development Program with Continuing but under - school aged under- Education. funded. prepared. 7.3 Consider establishing an Conduct a study with recommendation 1 $ 199= 01 New Hanover Co. Board of None independent Board of e.g. using a consultant. Study other Education possibly with Education supplemental systems in other states with this consultant. education tax to improve authority. State the quality of public school education. 7.4 Address the public school Conduct a study and write guidelines, 1 $ 199-01 New Hanover Co. Board of None drop out challenge and brochure, public affairs messages. Education possibly with high school students Discussion to include, drop out consultant. working excessively challenge, excessive work by high during school year. school students, and methods to encourage employers to assist teenage persons to obtain a high school diploma. X-C. Historic Preservation 6 ------------------------------------------------------ • • Issue The City and County need to identify, protect and plan for the preservation of historic resources. Policy 1. The County and City in cooperation with non profit and for profit organizations shall preserve, and provide regulatory and cultural guidance for historic sites and areas. 2. Take proactive steps to identify and protect important historic and archaeological resources including an updated inventory of significant areas or sites and updates to current regulations to require identification of potential impacts, a plan for protection of sensitive areas/sites or a mitigation/ data recovery plan where preservation is not possible. Density credits should be used to aid in area/ site protection plans. 3. Support a community archaeological program that will provide assistance to help salvage threatened historic and archaeological sites and promote public education/ participation. 4. Continue the redevelopment of historic downtown Wilmington as a high priority, building on past successes and carefully matching public incentives with private investment. Care should be taken to preserve the visual character and historic atmosphere of old Wilmington. X-C-1 c` HISTORIC PRESERVATION IMPLEMENTATION ACTIONS Implementation Action Details for Actions Priority Resources Fiscal Responsibility Status T' 2"s, Required Year(s). 3rd $-$$-$$$ 1.1 Update and revise existing historic Complete guidelines and 1 $ `98-`99 City, (Preservation Draft district design guidelines to provide implement them. Consultant, in process of form direction to the homeowners, builders refining guidelines with and contractors, and to preserve visual public's and Historic District and historic character in the Commission input) redevelopment of downtown Wilmington. 1.2 Conduct a city- and county -wide historic Complete survey. 1 $$ `98-`99 Historic Wilmington In resource survey update that identifies Foundation, Inc., City, and process additional historic resources, both County architectural and natural. 1.3 Update existing National Register Retain consultant to conduct 1 $ 199-100 City, Historic Wilmington None District survey to identify contributing, survey update. Foundation, Inc. noncontributing resources for tax credit purposes, and demolished resources and new construction. 1.4 Expand boundaries of city's local historic Complete study and 1 $ 199 City, Historic Wilmington Draft districts towards the north and south. designation report. Foundation, Inc., Consultant form 1.5 Expand the boundaries of the National Conduct reconnaissance 1 $ `99-`03 City, Historic Wilmington None Register District to encompass adjoining survey with Foundation, Inc areas that have become eligible for recommendations. inclusion. 1.6 Enhance existing affordable housing See Housing implementation 1 $$ Ongoing City, and WHFD, Inc. On - programs within the historic districts. actions. going Adopt design guidelines and building codes to facilitate renovations in low- income areas. 1.7 Protect and maintain historic brick street Conduct survey and research 1 $ study 199 '00 City, Historic District On - pavers. and implement program. $ program Commission, Historic going Wilmington Foundation, Inc. 1.8 Include Historic Preservation Plan as an Collect comments as 1 $ `98-`99 City, -Historic District None element of the Comprehensive Plan Comprehensive Plan is Commission, Historic updated. Wilmington Foundation, Inc. HISTORIC PRESERVATION IMPLEMENTATION ACTIONS Implementation Action Details for Actions Priority Resources Fiscal Responsibility Status 1", 2"r, Required Year(s) Yd $-$$-$$$ 1.9 Initiate the establishment of Conduct public education. 3 $ '02= 04 City, Historic District None Conservation Districts. Commission, Historic Wilmington Foundation, Inc. 1.10 Establish local historic districts in early Conduct reconnaissance 2 $$ '99-'03 City, Historic District None 20t'-century neighborhoods such as survey with Commission, Historic Forest Hills and Sunset Park. recommendations. Wilmington Foundation, Inc. 1.11 Establish historic resource design Use guidelines created by 3 $ `04-`06 County, City, Historic None guidelines that pertain to districts and other county jurisdictions as Wilmington Foundation, Inc. landmarks to be designated by the future a model and revise County Historic Preservation appropriately. Commission. 1.12 Coordinate historic preservation efforts Continuous outreach and 1 $ Ongoing City, County, Historic District On - and public education with non-profit interaction. Commission, Historic going historic preservation groups. Wilmington Foundation, Inc., DARE, Inc. 1.13 Take proactive steps to identify and Include: updated inventory 2 $ for study '99='01 City and County Need to protect important archaeological of significant areas or sites; add to resources. updates to current study regulations to require identification of potential impacts; a plan for protection of sensitive areas; sites and mitigation; and use density credits to aid in area and site protection plans. Support a community 2 $$ for 199= 01 City and County Need to archaeological program that program add to will provide assistance to pro - help; salvage threatened land gram and water sites archaeological sites; and promote public education and participation. XC-3 XI. Storm & Natural Hazard Element • • • • 1. Storm and Natural Hazard Mitigation, Evacuation and Recovery Policies 1.1. In the event of a hurricane or disaster the City and County shall assess measures to safeguard future populations from development which may put increased numbers of people at risk in hazard incidents. 1.1.1. Discourage high intensity uses and large structures from being constructed within the 100 year floodplain, erosion prone areas, and other locations susceptible to hurricane and flooding hazards. 1.1.2. Following a storm event, take advantage of opportunities to acquire or purchase land located in storm hazard areas which are rendered unbuildable. The property should satisfy objectives including, but not limited to the conservation of open space, scenic areas, and provision of public water access. - 1.1.3. Declare a moratorium on the acceptance of any request for rezoning in flood prone areas other than for rezoning to a less intense use, unless that rezoning request is initiated by the City or County. 1.1.4. Declare a moratorium on the permitting of any new construction, new utility hook-ups, or redevelopment construction that would increase the intensity of the land uses existing before the hurricane or disaster. 1.1.5. Request that new assessment of hazard areas be performed, depending on the extent of flooding and the changes to shoreline and inlets caused by the hurricane. 1.2. A Recovery Task Force may be appointed with the responsibility for directing reconstruction within New Hanover County after a damaging storm. 1.2.1. The Task Force shall be responsible for advising the Board of the County Commissioners on a diverse range of post -storm issues. 1.2.2. A building moratorium may be authorized or extended by the Recovery Task Force through a resolution by the Board of County Commissioners and/or City Council. 1.3. The City and County shall retain on a seasonal basis an assistance facilitator/consultant who, as directed by the County Manager, will be responsible for: • Determining the types of assistance available to the City and County and the type of assistance most needed. • Assisting in the coordination of federal disaster recovery effort. • Coordinate State and Federal programs of assistance. • Informing the Citizenry of the types of assistance programs available. • Recommending to the Recovery Task Force and Board of Commissioners programs which are available and then acting as facilitator in securing those programs 1.4. Immediately remove and clean up debris and restore services following a major storm event. 1.4.1. The City and County shall be responsible for the overall supervision of cleanup and disposal of debris resulting from an intense storm event. 1.4.2. In hurricane damaged areas, give priority to those repairs that restore service to the greatest number of people. XI4 1.4.3. Where economically feasible replace or relocate public utilities, that have sustained major damage due to a hurricane storm event, away from hurricane hazard areas or strengthen their construction. • 1.4.4. The North Carolina Department of Transportation(NCDOT) will remove and clean up debris from publicly maintained roads immediately following a major storm event. 1.4.5. The City of Wilmington will be responsible for the clean-up of City streets. 1.4.6. Private development homeowners will be responsible for the clean-up of debris on private roads, or public roads not yet accepted by NCDOT. XI-2 XII. Land Classification XII. Land Classification The land classification system is a means of assisting in the implementation of the land use plan policies. It allows the local government and its citizens to specify those areas where certain policies will apply. The land classification system is intended to be supported and complemented by zoning, sub- division and other land use management tools. Together they provide the guidance to help realize the desired future land uses. The land classifications for the 1998 Wilmington -New Hanover County Land Use Plan Update are as follows: Developed The purpose of the Developed class is to provide for continued intensive development and redevelopment of existing urban areas. These areas are already developed at a density approaching 500 dwelling units per square mile. Urban services are already in place or scheduled within the immediate future. Most of the land within the City of Wilmington is designated as Developed, except for some Urban Transition and Conservation areas. Density may exceed 2.5 units per acre within the Developed class, depending upon local zoning regulations. Urban Transition The purpose of the Urban Transition class is to provide for future intensive urban development on lands that have been or will be provided with necessary urban services. The location of these areas is based upon land use planning policies requiring optimum efficiency in land utilization and public service delivery. Residential development can exceed 2.5 units per acre within the Urban Transition area provided the development is adequately designed to be compatible with existing and proposed surrounding land uses and it is served by: 1. Sewer - the development shall be served by City or County sewer systems or private package treatment systems that meet the most stringent State requirements. 2. Municipal or County water system - the development shall be served by City or County water systems or a private water system constructed in accordance with City of Wilmington standards. 3. Direct access to a minor arterial or larger access road, as classified under the New Hanover County Thoroughfare Classification System - the development may be required to fully provide or to share in the cost of the provision of roadway improvements needed to adequately serve the proposed development and the community in general. • XII-1 Limited Transition The purpose of the Limited Transition class is to provide for development in areas that will have some services, but at lower densities than those associated with Urban Transition. 0 Residential density should be no more than 2.5 units/acre, with lower density being -more desirable. The use of clustering and Planned Unit Developments (PUD) is encouraged. These areas were previously designated as Transition and were intended to provide for more intensive future urban development. However the provision of public services has been scaled back and less intensive urban development is planned. Community The purpose of the Community class is to provide for "crossroads" type of development to help meet housing, shopping, employment and public service needs within the more rural areas of the County. Services may be provided to these areas, but not to stimulate more intensive development. Density shall not exceed 2.5 units/acre. These rural areas of the planning jurisdiction are typically characterized by a small grouping of mixed land uses, such as community shopping, church, school and residences, which provide low intensity retail service and housing opportunities. The only area currently designated as "Community" is • Castle Hayne. Rural The purpose of the Rural class is to provide for areas of low intensity land uses, such as agriculture, forest management, mineral extraction and other traditional agrarian uses. This classification discourages the premature conversion of these lands into urban -type uses and the subsequent loss of resource production. Other land uses of a noxious or hazardous nature with the potential for negative impacts on adjacent uses may be allowed, provided that they can be sited in a manner which will minimize their negative effect on surrounding land uses and natural resources. Only low density residential development not exceeding 2.5 units per acre is permitted, since the extension of urban services into the Rural class would be an inefficient use of resources. Compatible commercial and industrial uses may also be allowed, provided that natural resources are not adversely impacted. XII-2 Conservation The purpose of the Conservation class is to provide for effective long-term management and protection of significant, limited or irreplaceable natural resources. Management of these areas may be required for a number of reasons, including natural, cultural, recreational, productive or scenic values. Lands placed in the Conservation class are generally the least desirable for development because: 1. They are too fragile to withstand development without losing their natural value; and/or 2. They have severe or hazardous limitations to development; and/or 3. Though they are not highly fragile or hazardous, the natural resources they represent are too valuable to endanger by development. Generally, estuarine areas of environmental concern (AEC's) as defined by the State of North Carolina and adjacent lands within the 100-year floodplain have been classified as Conservation. Conservation areas should be preserved in their natural state. Woodland, grassland and recreation areas not requiring filling are the most appropriate uses. Exceptions to this standard are limited to water -dependent uses (i.e., uses that cannot function elsewhere), shared industrial access corridors, and those exceptional development proposals which are sensitively designed so as to effectively preserve the natural functions of the site. The following guidelines clarify these Conservation area,objectives: L . Water dependent uses - may include: utility easements, docks, wharves, boat • ramps, dredging, bridge and bridge approaches, revetments, bulkheads, culverts, groins, navigational aide, moorings, pilings, navigational channels, simple access channels and drainage ditches. In some instances, a water -dependent use may involve coverage of sizeable land areas with limited opportunities to integrate the use with the site's natural features. This would require reclassification of the site. By contrast, water dependent uses which can be designed to preserve a site's natural features may not require reclassification. This would be the preferred type of development. • 2. Shared industrial access corridors - as discussed in the U.S. Army Corps' of Engineers' The Wilmington Harbor: Plan for Improvement, would provide necessary access to the channel of the Northeast Cape Fear River for industries located on high ground while minimizing the adverse environmental impacts of such access. 3. Exceptional developments preserving natural features are projects which are sensitively designed so as to harmonize with the site's natural features. Such projects minimize erosion, impervious surfaces, runoff and siltation; do not adversely impact estuarine resources; do not interfere with access to or use of navigable waters; do not require extraordinary public expenditures for maintenance; ensure that ground absorption sewage systems, if used, meet applicable standards; and do not damage historic, architectural or archeological resources. XII-3 In no case shall residential density in the Conservation class be permitted to exceed 2.5 units per r acre, regardless of the existence of public urban services. Residential densities may be required to be as low as 1.0 unit/acre or less, depending on the environmental constraints within a particular area. While • certain Conservation areas may be served by public sewer in order to eliminate septic system pollution, this should not be misconstrued as an incentive to facilitate increased development density. Resource Protection The purpose of the Resource Protection class is to provide for the preservation and protection of important natural, historic, scenic, wildlife and recreational resources. The Resource Protection class has been developed in recognition of the fact that New Hanover County, one of the most urbanized counties in the State, still contains numerous areas of environmental or cultural sensitivity which merit protection from urban land uses. The Resource Protection class includes land adjacent to the estuarine waters which are classified SA by the North Carolina Division of Environmental Management. The class also includes land in the Castle Hayne area where the protection of farmland, a rural lifestyle, and the aquifer system are highly important issues. Residential densities greater than 2.5 units per acre shall not be permitted in the Resource Protection class. Residential densities may be required to be as low as 1.O unit/acre or less, depending on the development constraints within a particular area. Compatible commercial and industrial development may be located within the Resource Protection class as long as important • resources are not adversely impacted. It is important to note that the County sewer service being provided to portions of this area is intended for the purpose of eliminating septic pollution and not for encouraging increased density of development., LAND CLASSIFICATION MAP Included on the next page is the Land Classification Map. This map indicates the location of each of the land classes previously described in this section. It is intended for general location purposes only and should not be utilized for site -specific interpretive purposes due to its scale. For more detailed information regarding the land classification for a specific site, contact the New Hanover County Planning Department or the City of Wilmington Planning and Development Department. XII4 • 0 Generalized Land Classifications Legend Developed Urban Transition ❑ F//] Limited Transition Community ❑ Rural Conservation F] Resource Protection Not In Planning Area AfapCr.~w 11/faM W - m~ T . -h—tv A Brunswick County N tj Fender County N I A'. Beach 42 • • V m Q. X • Survey of Registered Voters • NEW HANOVER COUNTY VOTER SURVEY EASTCOAST RESEARCH WILMINGTON, N.C. OCTOBER, 1997 Prepared for: New Hanover County Planning Department 414 Chesnut St. Wilmincton, NC 28401 October 30, 1997 Prepared by: Eastcoast Consumer Research 1314 S. 16th St. Wilmington, NC 28402 (910) 763-3260 Contact: Paulg,tbntz • EASTCOAST RESEARCH INTRODUCTION The following write-up reports the results of the New Hanover. County Voter Survey conducted in October, 1997 by Eastcoast Research of Wilmington, N.C. This is the third in -a series of similar studies that seek to find the most important issues that concern registered voters. Since registered voters represent a significant portion of the population, the opinions adequately reflect the entire New Hanover County area. The previous two studies on issues, November 1991 and ,January 1986, were completed by another research company. The previous studies were used to calculate trend information, and selected information from them is included in this report.* The current study uses the same questionnaire and sample size as the November 1991 study so that better trend comparisons can be made. The report sections which follow include the methodology, conclusions, detailed findings on all survey questions, and the tabular responses to each question. The last section of this write-up contains a copy of the questionnaire, which was designed by another research company. Some minor corrections to the survey were made by Eastcoast Research to increase the accuracy of the results. *Note: The numbers used from the previous studies were accepted as being accurate and factual. If the numbers used from these studies prove to be inaccurate, this could alter the conclusions of our study. EASTCOAST RESEARCH METHODOLOGY The survey was conducted utilizing a randomly drawn sample from a list of registered voters in New Hanover County, Wilmington, N.C. Individuals who were not registered to vote were excluded from the study. The current study is highly accurate and considered representative of the entire New Hanover County population. The opinions on issues were limited to choices in the questionnaire and in some cases were condensed from brief statements made by respondents. The sample consisted of 410 completed interviews, which were proportioned to match the November 1991 sample size exactly. The 1986 study sample had slightly more interviews, or 502, primarily from the Wilmington City area. The larger sample in 1986 is not significantly greater and should not have much of an impact on trend information. The 1997 survey results were from the following areas: TOTAL INTERVIEWS PERCENT LOCATION 204 50% City of Wilmington 97 24 Harnett Township 51 12 Masonboro Township CFO 10 Cape Fear Township 18 4 Federal Point 410 100% Total Sample w EASTCOAST RESEARCH CONCLUSIONS Many issues appear to be important when viewed on the surface level. However, there are two central or "umbrella" issues that all other issues can be placed under. In some cases issues can be under both umbrella issues. The two issues that appear to be extremely important to the voters in New Hanover County are: GROWTH ENVIRONMENT Growth or development is the root cause of most traffic road problems, overcrowded schools, drainage problems and crime. Growth is not a negative issue but rather a desirable issue, because without it a community is either stagnant or in a state of decline. Growth is what characterizes a healthy and vibrant community, and the hallmark of the best cities in America. County growth has been too fast for the voters comfort level. Voters also want developers to be controlled and made to pay for increased infrastructure costs. Growth also impacts the Environment issue. Environment is the reason why many of the residents chose to live in New Hanover County. Environment encompasses issues like water quality, recycling, preserving trees and open spaces, or revitalization of areas. The Wilmington area is rich in historic buildings and is between rivers and the ocean. The purity and preservation of this environment is of paramount importance. Protecting the environment, is extremely important to the voters in this county. The quality of life and the quality of the community depend upon the quality of the environment. An important question raised by this study is "Does Growth Cost or Does Growth Pay?" 0 EASTCOAST RESEARCH DETAILED FINDINGS MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE The questionnaire in this survey had four sections which collected issue responses as follows: 1. Question #3 or "Before" the attitudinal and scaled statement ratings. 2. The (Agree[Disagree )attitudinal statements or questions # 9 to 26. 3. The scaled statement ratings(Importance) questions # 27 to 40. 4. Question #41 or "After" the attitudinal and scaled statement ratings. When analyzed together, the results show that there are two "umbrella" or extremely important issues (Growth and Environment); and a large group of sub -issues that are also very important. (The umbrella issues are discussed in the Conclusions Section of this report.) The other issues are analyzed and reported in this section. The "Before " issues indicate a rising importance to Traffic, Growth and Education over the 11 year time period. A graph of the top three Before issues follows this section. The Agree%Disagree top issues also show an increase in the strength of the Traffic and Recycling issues during this time period. The top three issues were: ,January 1986 Traffic 87% Zoning 77% DT Revit.73% (Downtown Revitalization) November 1991 Recycling 92% Traffic 89% Water 84% October, 1997 Recycling 94% Traffic 90% Water 84% EASTCOAST RESEARCH DETAILED FINDINGS MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE -CONTINUED The scaled statement ratings used importance of the issue as a measurement. Issues were either very, somewhat, or not important. The top three issues in the 11 year time period are presented below. They show a rising importance in environmental issues like water quality and preserving open spaces. Traffic was an issue in the 1986 study, but the question was dropped from this section in the last two studies. Drainage was also an important issue. lanuary 1986 November 1991 October, 1997 Traffic 92% Water 92% Water 91% Growth 61% Preserv.78% Preserv.80% Hydrants 61% Trees 77% Drainage 78% The "After" Issues also continue to show rising importance to growth issues over the 11 year time period. Traffic has become less important than water quality and education was not an issue in this question area of the survey. The After Issues were also graphed out and follow this section. When analyzing the results of the four sections on issues, it is better to look at the levels of an issue, rather than the exact percentage. If an issue obtains a 90% rating, it should be considered as very important, but it may not be very far in importance from an issue which has only 70%. Most of the issues in this section were top issues and had some degree of importance. Also of note, an "unaided" rating of 40% may carry as much importance as an "aided" rating of 70%. Question. #3 or #41 scores were "un"aided" and the Agree(Disagree or scaled statement scores were "aided". • 50% nel 30 Kil 10 M EAST COAST RESEARCH NEW HANOVER COUNTY SURVEY TRENDS Traffic/Roads 31 % Growth 30 /o Traffic „ 23% Education Roads 19% 16% Growth Education Traffic 12% 11 °� Crime 9% $% Jan 1986 Nov 1991 Oct 1997 TOP ISSUES (BEFORE OR UNAIDED) 50% .M RM 10 RE EAST COAST RESEARCH NEW HANOVER COUNTY SURVEY TRENDS Traffic 41% Water Quality 25% .: Roads Water Quality 20% 19% Growth Growth 16% Traffic/Roads Growth 12% Environment 18% 10% 9% Jan 1986 Nov 1991 Oct 1997 TOP ISSUES (AFTER OR AIDED) EASTCOAST RESEARCH DETAILED FINDINGS RESULTS FOR OTHER SURVEY QUESTIONS (Please refer to questionnaire for full text of each question.) Question 4: Rate of County Growth The current rate of growth is much too fast for voters to accept and is much higher than previous study levels. A total of 72% said growth was too fast, versus 51% in 1991 or 41% in 1986. Question 5: Desired Economic Activity in Counter The voter population has decided to accept more growth, but it is limited to mostly "light high tech" industrial businesses. This suggests that most voters like growth if it is the right growth. However, the low percentage (37%) combined with Question # 4 results indicates they are highly concerned with the growth issue. Question 6: Should Developers Pay For Infrastructure Costs? The voters definitely want developers to pay for the infrastructure costs (roads, schools, parks, etc.) caused by their growth or developments. The 89% rating was even higher than the 83184% ratings of the previous studies. However, developers would likely pass along any of these costs to their buyers (voters or taxpayers or businesses.) This is an issues known as "impact fees" which is a topic of much debate in communities across the country. Question 7: Cost of Growth Covered BY Property Taxes Results of this question are inconclusive due to inconsistencies in the questionnaire design. EASTCOAST RESEARCH DETAILED FINDINGS RESULTS FOR OTHER SURVEY QUESTIONS (Please refer to questionnaire for full text of each question.) Question 8: Continued Growth And Development Vs. Environment Half of the voters said that continued growth [development is just as important as protecting the environment in the current study. Another 44% said it is less important. This indicates that they are having difficulty in choosing, because both issues are important. This was the same for the 1991 study, but it was not in the 1986 study. Question 42: Spending Dollars To Solve Most Important Problem Most of the voters are willing to see city%county dollars spent on solving their most important problem. The 88% current study level is much stronger than the previous study levels (73180%). Question 43: Desired Transportation Facility Improvement There was no clear choice on what facility needs improvement in the current survey. Responses were evenly distributed accross most choices, except for a slight preference for improved roads. This likely reflects their traffic issue concerns. DEMOGRAPHICS OF SURVEY The current study sample was generally more white, affluent, better educated, and had more professionals than previous samples. The market has a very strong "baby boomer profile. Over a third of the sample had family income over $50,000 in 1996. A high number of respondents (73%) had some college or higher level of education, and a similar percent were in the 30-59 age range. New Hanover Survey Sample: 410 10r27/97 2. Area Count Frequency Response 204 49.76%City of Wilmington 40 9.76%Cape Fear Township 97 23.66%Harnett Township 51 12.44%Masonboro Township 18 4.39%Federal Point 0 0.00%None of the Above 0 0.00%DK/NR 3. Most impt. issue Count Frequency Response 93 22.68%Too much traffic 22 5.37%Drinking water (pollution) 8 1.95%Environment (clean) 2 0.49%Trash collection 124 30.24%Growth (too fast, not planned) 27 6.59%Land development (more control / better planned) 42 10.24%Overcrowded schools (busing, needed repairs) 4 0.98%Infrastructure 5 1.22°%Taxes 33 8.05%Crime, drugs 11 2.68%Drainage and Storm Water, sewer 4 0.98%Public transportation • 34 8.29%Education 34 8.29%More roads and better conditions 23 5.61 %Annexation 15 3.66%Preservation of Natural Resources, parks, beach, recycling 3 0.73°%More protection for and from Police 7 1.71 %Consolidation between City & County 2 0.49%Affordable Housing 3 0.73°%Better job opportunities 1 0.24% Bond Issue 1 0.24%Fire protection 2 0.49%Landfll 2 0.49%Revitalization of Downtown 1 0.24%Zoning 2 0.49%Economic System 4. County Growth Count Frequency Response 103 25.12%An Acceptable Rate 5 1.22%Not Fast Enough 294 71.71 %Too Fast 4 0.98%01her 4 0.98%Don't Know/Not Sure 5. Economic activity Count Frequency Response 64 16.12%Large manufacturing plants 146 36.78%Light "high tech" industrial 47 11.84%Trade & service business 42 10.58%Tourism & travel business 71 17.88%All kinds 27 6.80%Not sure / no opinion 13 3.17%NR 6. Should developers pay Count Frequency Response 363 88.54%Yes 27 6.596/6 No 9 2.20%No opinion 11 2.68%Not sure 7. Cost covered by property tax Count Frequency Response 83 32.17%Yes 157 60.85%No 7 2.71%No Opinion 11 4.26%Don't know / Not Sure 152 37.07%NR 8. Continued growth and development is: Count Frequency Response 17 4.21%More important 179 44.31%Less important 202 50.00%Just as important 6 1.49%Don't know / not sure 6 1.46%NR • 4 • Agree Disagree No Opinion Don't know NR 9. Water quality 355 10 16 29 0 86.59% 2.44% 3.90% 7.07% 0.00% 10. No trouble parking at beach 82 296 19 13 0 20.00% 72.20% 4.63% 3.17% 0.00% 11. Satisfied with recreational prog. 199 130 43 38 0 48.54% 31.71 % 10.49% 9.27% 0.00% 12. Well water polluted 254 25 33 98 0 61.95% 6.10% 8.05% 23.90% 0.00% 13. Billboards 49 324 31 16 0 11.95% 79.02% 7.56% 1.46% 0.00% 14. Recycling 384 18 6 2 0 93.66% 4.39% 1.46% 0.49% 0.00% 15. Public boat access 193 98 65 54 0 47.07% 23.90% 15.85% 13.17% 0.00% 16. Traffic congestion 368 39 3 0 0 89.76% 9.51 % 0.73% 0.00% 0.00% 17. Enough parks and playgrounds 101 231 32 46 0 24.63% 56.34% 7.80% 11.22% 0.00% 18. Zoning 191 1 123 35 61 0 46.59% 30.00% 8.54% 14.88% 0.00% 19. Townhouses and condos 228 84 51 47 0 55.61 % 20.49% 12.44% 11.46% 0.00% 20. Wilmington and NHC consolidate 125 184 59 42 0 30.49% 44.88% 14.39% 10.24% 0.00% 21. Restore historic areas 313 54 33 10 0 76.34% 13.17% 8.05% 2.44% 0.00% 22. Enough housing 86 259 19 46 0 20.98% 63.17% 4.63% 11.22% 0.00% 23. Continue riverfront development 317 61 21 11 0 . 77.32% 14.88% .5.12% 2.68% 0.00% 24. Signs 270 65 64 11 0 65.85% 15.85% 15.61% 2.68% 0.00% 25. Continued revitalization 44 , 346 15 5 0 10.73% 84.39% 3.66% 1.22% 0.00% 26. 1-40 328 39 24 19 0 80.00% 9.51 % 5.85% 4.63% 0.00% Very Imp. Some Imp. Not Imp. N/S N/R 27. Lack of fire hydrants 211 60 17 122 0 51.46% 14.63% 4.15% 29.76% 0.00% 28. Athletic fields 112 161 80 57 0 27.32% 39.27% 19.51% 13.90% 0.00% 29. Lack of public money 221 109 43 37 0 53.90% 26.59% 10.49% 9.02% 0.00% 30. Beach erosion 176 110 101 22 1 43.03% 26.89% 24.69% 5.38% 0.24% 31. Commercial development 253 90 40 27 0 61.71 % 21.95% 9.76% 6.59% 0.00% 32. Government restrictions 186 87 66 71 0 45.37% 21.22% 16.10% 17.32% 0.00% 33. Rapid strip commercial dev. 247 76 64 21 2 60.54% 18.63% 15.69% 5.15% 0.49% 34. Removal of trees 312 67 23 7 1 76.28% 16.38% 5.62% 1.71% 0.24% 35. Lack of compulsory 180 115 46 67 2 44.12% 28.19% 11.27% 16.42% 0.49% 36. Lack of drainage 321 62 7 20 0 0.00% 78.29% 15.12% 1.71% 4.88% 37. Closing of shellfish beds 258 53 27 72 0 62.93% 12.93% 6.59% 17.56% 0.00% 38. More controls / water quality 374 26 3 7 0 91.22% 6.34% 0.73% 1.71% 0.00% 39. Improving appearance 299 102 9 0 0 72.93% 24.88% 2.20% 0.00% 0.00% 40. Preservation of open space 329 68 7 6 0 80.24*/0 : 16.59% 1.71% 1.46% 0.00% 41. Most important issue Count Frequency Response 48 11.71%Too much traffic 101 24.63%Drinking water (pollution) 35 8.54°%Environment (clean) 1 0.24%Trash collection 54 13.17%Growth (too fast, not planned) 59 14.39%Land development (more control / better planned) 14 3.41%Overcrowded schools (busing, needed repairs) 6 1.46%Preservation of Historical sites 7 1.71 % Infrastructure 2 0.49%Taxes 7 1.71%Crime, drugs 32 7. 80% Drainage and Storm Water, sewer 19 4.63%Lack of money for declining neighborhoods (appearance) 4 0.98%Public transportation 10 2.44°%Education 17 4.15%More roads and better conditions 5 1.22°%Annexation 54 13.17%Preservation of Natural Resources, parks, beach, recycling 15 3.66%Consolidation between City & County 11 2.68°%Affordable Housing 4 0.98%Better job opportunities 5 1.22°%Revitalization of Downtown 4 0.98%Zoning 1 0.24°%Economic System 1 0.24%Closing of shellfish beds 42. Spending additional dollars • Count Frequency Response 355 87.65%Yes 26 6.42%No 5 1.23%No opinion 19 4.69%Not sure 5 1.22%NR 43. Transportation facility Count Frequency Response 107 28.53%Public trans. 80 21.33%Bicycling paths 141 37.60% Roads 47 12.53%Sidewalks 35 8.54%NR 44. Last grade Count Frequency Response 0 0.00%8th 14 3.43%9th-11th 83 20.34%High School • 14 104 3.43%Some Tech. 25.49%Some College 137 33.58%College Grad. ' 56 13.73%Post Grad. 0 0.00%Refused 2 0.49%NR 45. Occupation Count Frequency Response 144 38.20%Professional 41 10.88%Homemaker 68 18.04%Retired 21 5.57%Clerical 22 5.84%Managerial 16 424%Sales 15 3.98%Skilled Craftsman 4 1.06%Factory Worker 23 6.10%Self Employed 3 0. 80% Protective Services 8 2.12%Student 6 1.59%Transportation worker 3 0.80%Disabled 3 0.80%Refused 33 8.05%NR - • 0 46. Age Count Frequency Response 45 10.98% 18-29 101 24.63%30-39 106 25.85%40-49 87 21.22%50-59 25 6.10%60-64 44 10.73%Over 65 2 0.49%Refused 0 0.00%NR 47. Income 21 5.16%15000 or under 29 7.13% 15001 to 25000 25 6.14%25001 to 30000 30 7.37%30001 to 35000 38 9.34%35001 to 40000 53 13.02%40001 to 50000 88 21.62%50001 to 75000 58 14.25%Over 75000 65 15.97%Refused 3 0.73%NR 48. Race 363 89.19%White 36 8.85%Black 5 1.23%Other 3 0.74%Refused 3 0.73%NR 49. Sex 158 40.93%Male 228 59.07%Female 24 5.85%NR i NEW HANOVER COUNTY LAND USE SURVEY OCTOBER 1997 Hello, I'm from Eastcoast Research. We are conducting a public opinion survey among registered voters in New Hanover County. The survey is being conducted for the county in an effort to update its land use plan, and we would like to include your opinion. 1. Are you registered to vote in New Hanover County? Yes (CONTINUE) No (THANK & TERMINATE) 2. Which of the following areas do you live in? City of Wilmington Cape Fear Township Harnett Township Masonboro Township Federal Point None of the Above (THANK & TERMINATE) • 3. What, in your opinion, is the most important issue facing New Hanover County? 4. Do you feel the county is growing at: An Acceptable Rate Not Fast Enough Too Fast Other Don't Know/Not Sure 5.• What economic activity would you most like to see in New Hanover County? Large manufacturing plants (like GE or Corning) Light "high tech" industrial (electronics or computers) Trade & service business (retail, banking, insurance) Tourism & travel business All kinds (DO NOT READ RESPONSE) Not sure/no opinion 6. Should developers be required to help pay the costs of new public facilities needed because of growth; such as new roads, parks and schools? Yes No No opinion Not sure New Hanover County Survey Page 2 7. (IF ANSWER TO 6 IS NO, THEN ASK): Should the cost of growth be entirely covered by the property tax paid by everyone? Yes No No opinion Don't know/Not sure 8. Continued growth and development is: MORE IMPORTANT, LESS IMPORTANT or JUST AS IMPORTANT, as protecting the environment. _ Don't know/not sure (DO NOT READ RESPONSE) Please tell me whether or not you agree or disagree with the following statements as they relate to New Hanover County. -= If you have no opinion or have never heard of the issue, please say so. DIS- NO DON'T AGREE AGREE OPINION KNOW 9. Water quality is declining in our river, creeks, and sounds 10. I have no trouble.parking at the beach when I want to 11. I am satisfied with the public recreational programs and dervices in the county 12. Our well water is becoming polluted 13. Billboards are needed along our highways 14. Recycling should be included in all commercial and household garbage collection 15. More public boat access to the river & sounds is needed 16. Traffic congestion is a problem for me • • New Hanover County Survey Page 3 DIS- NO DON'T AGREE AGREE OPINION KNOW 17. New Hanover County has enough parks and playgrounds 18. Zoning and land use regulations should be the same in the city and county 19. There are too many townhouses and condominiums & other dense develop- ments along the creeks & sounds 20. Wilmington and New Hanover County should not consolidate 21. Wilmington should restore and preserve more historic areas 22. There is enough housing available for all income levels 23. Wilmington should continue the development of its riverfront 24. Businesses should use fewer and,smaller signs 25. Continued revitalization of down- town Wilmington is not necessary 26. The opening of I-40 has had a positive effect on Wilmington, Please tell me how important you feel the following issues are to Wilmington and New Hanover County. For each issue I read, please tell me if it is; VERY IMPORTANT, SOMEWHAT IMPORTANT, NOT IMPORTANT, OR YOU ARE NOT SURE OF THE ISSUE? 27. Lack of fire hydrants in the outlying areas of the county 28. Additional multi -purpose athletic fields VERY SOME NOT IMP NIS IMP. IMP. New Hanover County Survey Page 4 VERY SOME IMP IMP 29. Lack of public money to help declining neighborhoods 30. Beach erosion that results in destruction of homes & businesses 31. Commercial development intruding into residential neighborhoods 32. Too many government restrictions on building construction and land development 33. Rapid strip commercial development along major roads, such as Market St. College Rd., and Oleander Dr. 34. Removal of trees due to land development 35. Lack of compulsory trash pick -up - in the unincorporated areas 36. Lack of city and county drainage and stormwater controls 37. Closing of shellfish beds 38. More controls to protect the quality of drinking water 39. Improving the appearance of our community 40. Preservation of open space and greenways NOT IMP NIS 41. Now that we have gone through some of the issues facing New Hanover County, which one do you consider most important? i New Hanover County Survey Page 5 42. If spending additional dollars was required to solve this problem, would you be willing for the city or county to do so? Yes No No opinion Not sure 43. Which type of transportation facility in New Hanover County would you most like to see improved? Public transportation (bus service) Bicycling paths Roads Sidewalks Finally,,to ensure that we have a representative sample of the County, I need to ask you a few questions for statistical purposes only. 44. What was the last grade of school you completed? 8th grade or less 9th-11th grade High School Graduate Some Technical Training Some College College Graduate Post Graduate Refused 45. What is your occupation? Professional ;. ; Homemaker Retired Clerical Managerial Sales Skilled Craftsman Factory Worker Self Employed Protective Service Student Transportation Worker Disabled Refused New Hanover County Survey Page 6 46. What is your age? 18-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-64 Over 65 Refused 47. What was your total family income in 1996? $15,000 or under $15,001 to $25,000 $25,001 to $30,000 $30,001 to $35,000 $35,001 to $40,000 $40,001 to $50,000 $50,001 to $75,000 Over $75,001 Refused 48. What do you consider your race to be? White Black Other Refused 49. Sex: Male Female Q TELEPHONE I THANK YOU FOR YOUR TIME AND HELP. HAVE A NICE DAY. • Technical Reports • Population New Hanover County - Wilmington North Carolina A Technical Report for the County - City Comprehensive Plan 1997-2010 October 1998 Prepared by the New Hanover County, Planning Department 414 Chestnut Street, Suite 304 Wilmington, NC 28401 (910) 341-7165 City of Wilmington, Planning Division 202 N. 3rd Street, 4th Floor, Wilmington, NC 28401 (910) 341-3258 0 • • 0 Population New Hanover County - Wilmington, North Carolina Table of Contents page I. Introduction I II.. Summary 2 III. Population size and characteristics 4 Historical population changes Population projections Immigration to New Hanover County IV. New Hanover County population growth comparison 11 Migration, birth and deaths: in the four County area Population growth comparison in the four County area Population growth comparison Persons per square mile: density V. Wilmington population growth comparison 16 Wilmington population annexation comparison Comparison of City population growth Wilmington population with proposed annexation VI. Race and demographics 19 New Hanover County and Wilmington New Hanover County demographic structure Population, race and sex projections Projections of population by age group R. References 24 A. Appendix 25 f I. INTRODUCTION The purpose of this report is to show the population characteristics of New Hanover County and Wilmington. The population characteristics are presented with the recent historical past, and projections to the year 2010. This technical report is part of the County and City Comprehensive Plan effort,t and is the 1998 update to the 1992 population reports.2 The population characteristics that are presented in the report are: size; age; sex; ethnicity; area analysis; immigration; births and deaths; projections; and proposed City annexation. This report will help provide information used for the amount of future land use needs, as part of the 1997-2010 County and City Comprehensive Plan process. This information will help to guide public issues, policy, and implementation action decisions. ' In addition this report fulfills requirements of state Coastal Area Management Act with regard to land use planning (for more details see the Appendix). Z The previous county and city population reports were "Population Study of New Hanover County" Sept. 1992, and "Wilmington's Forecast" Jan. 1992. II. SUMMARY • The following are the main highlights of population changes presented in this report. From 1940 to 1997 New Hanover County has shown a very rapid population growth compared with years prior to 1940. In 1940 the County population was approximately 48,000 and 149,000 in 1997. Since 1990 County growth rates have increased to approximately 3.1% per year. In 1980 the City population was approximately 44,000 and an estimate for 1997 is 64,000. Wilmington has had a population increase of approximately 2.1% per year since 1990. The 2010 County projected population is 180,000 for an increase of approximately 31,000 people from 1997. Projected decreasing rates of annual growth for the County are 2.0% per year in 1997 to 1.4% in 2010. Wilmington's population is projected to increase from 64,000 to 73,000 from 1997 to 2010, for an increase of 9,000. Eighty-five percent of the population growth in the County in the current decade from 1990 to 2000 is expected to be from immigration. Only 15% of population growth in the County during this decade is expected to be from net natural growth (or births minus deaths). This trend is expected to continue through the year 2010. From 1995 to 2010 the County is projected to show the third largest increase in population growth compared with seven other major urban counties in North Carolina. It is projected that by 2010 New Hanover County will have the second or third highest • population per square mile (or density) of all 100 counties in North Carolina. The projected density in the County by 2010 is 900 persons per square mile, while the state average is projected to be approximately 170. The City of Wilmington has proposed two annexations which may add as many as 24,000 people by the year 2000. The City's population would grow from roughly 64,000 to 88,000. In 1995 the County race percentages were: 78% White, 19% Black, and approximately 3% Hispanic, Asian and Pacific Islander, and Other races. Wilmington in 1995 was 67% White and 30% Black. The percentage of remaining races in the City was about the same as the County with 3% Hispanic, Asian and Pacific Islander, and Other races. The 2010 race projection for the County is 79% White, and 2 1 % for the Other census race category. Between 1995 to 2010 the percentage of males and females in New Hanover County is projected to remain consistent with a higher percentage of females than males. In 1995 this difference was 4% for Whites and 10% for Blacks. Estimates for 2010 show no significant change in the percentage of females and males. Age group populations will change dramatically between 1995 and 2010. The largest projected change in age group population will be the increase in the number of people older than age 50. The median age will increase from 36 in 1995 to a projected age of 40 by 2010. The number of school aged children will also rise considerably as a result of the increase of people • in their child rearing years. Between 1995 and 2010, the number of school age children (0 to 19 years of OA ., age) will increase by approximately 6,500, an 18% increase. Most of these youths will attend public schools. • 0 • • • III. POPULATION SIZE AND CHARACTERISTICS Existing Population - 1997. Wilmington 64,100 New Hanover County 149,200 Trend. From 1990 to 1997: Population growth Growth Rate Per Year Wilmington 18,700 2.1% New Hanover County 28,900 3.1% Historical Population Changes The following table and chart shows the historical population changes that have occurred in New Hanover County and the City of Wilmington. Moderate historical growth occurred in the County until approximately 1940. After 1940 the County population grew comparatively fast. From 1990 to 1997 the County population growth rate was from 3.0% to 3.4% per year, with an average of 3.1% per year, for an increase of 28,900 people. In 1997 the County population was 149,200. Similarly, the City steadily increased in population growth to 1950. After this time there was a thirty year time period of essentially no growth. From 1980 to 1997 the City population once again grew and increased from approximately 44,000 to 64,100. Since 1990 the City growth rate has been between 1.5% to 2.3% per year with an average of 2.1 % per year.3 County and City Population 1940-1997 Year New Hanover County Population Time period Growth per year for time period Year City of Wilmington Population Time period Growth per year for time period 1940 47,935 1940 33,407 1950 63,272 1940-50 2.8% 1950 45,043 1940-50 3.0% 1960 71,742 1960-70 1.3% 1960 44,013 1960-70 -0.2% 1970 82,996 1960-70 1.5% 1970 46,169 1960-70 0.5% 1980 103,471 1970-80 2.2% 1980 44,000 1970-80 -0.5% 1990 120,284 1980-90 1.5% 1990 55,530 1980-90 2.4% 1995 139,577 1990-95 3.0% 1995 62,256 1990-95 2.3% 1997 149,211 1995-97 3.4% 1997 64,164 1995-97 1.5% From: NC Office of State Planning & State Library 3 The growth rate equation is shown in the appendix. El 140,000 120,000 = 100,000 0 R 80,000 3 p 60,000 IL 40,000 20,000 0 0 0 O Population of the County and City o_ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 I` N M IV* to (p 1,. 00 CD N M �f 0 CO I-W O O O M °D GO O GO O O O W O O O QI O2 to O O O W Year * New Hanover County --*-City of Wilmington The following two tables compare the population change since 1960 in the unincorporated New Hanover County, Wilmington and the beaches with the State of North Carolina population. The table clearly shows that the bulk of the County's population resides in Wilmington and the unincorporated portion of the County. The three beach cities constitute a small fraction of the total population in the County. The second table shows annual growth rates between 1990 to 1997. These values are from the Office of State Planning. Wilmington and New Hanover County have grown annually from approximately 2% to 3% per year during this time period. The beach towns have grown from approximately 1% to 4% per year. Population of Cities in County, and State 1960 1970 1980 1990 1995 1996 1997 Unincorporated Co. 25,521 33,069 53,976 57,568 68,866 71,869 76,240 Wilmington 44,013 46,169 44,000 55,530 62,256 62,968 64,164 Carolina Beach 1,192 1,663 2,000 3,630 4,598 4,690 4,854 Wrightsville Beach 723 1,701 2,884 2,937 3,115 3,165 3,197 Kure Beach 293 394 611 619 742 738 756 New Hanover County (Total) 71,742 82,996 103,471 120,284 139,577 143,430 149,211 North Carolina 4,556,155 5,084,411 5,880,095 6,632,448 7,194,238 7,323,085 7,436,690 Source: US Census Bureau, NC Orrice of State Planning, Wilming. Plan. Div., NHC Plan. Dept • • Annual Growth Rates From 1990 to 1997 Wilmington 2.1% Wrightsville Beach 1.2% Carolina Beach 4.2% - : Kure Beach 2.9% • New Hanover Co. (Total) 3.1 % 5 r, The following chart shows the population growth from 1960 to 1997 for the unincorporated County, Wilmington, and the beach towns. In approximately 1975 the unincorporated County surpassed Wilmington in terms of population. In 1997 the unincorporated County had approximately 5,500 more people than Wilmington. • 70000 60000 c 0 :r 40000 M 0 a 0 a 30000 20000 10000 0 _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ —♦—Unincorporated Co. ..... —*—Wilmington - - - Carolina Beach ................. Wrightsville Beach ..... — —Kure Beach 1960 1970 1980 1990 1997 Trend. In 1960 more people lived in Wilmington than the rest of the unincorporated County. By 1997 the opposite was true, where there were more people living in the unincorporated County than in the City. rol --: Population Projections The following table and the chart on page 6 show historical and projected population growth scenarios from 1997 to 2010 in New Hanover County, Wilmington, and the beach towns. The projected growth scenarios from 1997 to 2010 are based on North Carolina Office of State Planning census values with minor modifications by the City and County Planning Offices based on housing construction trends. The City population projections do not include the proposed annexations4. A map depicting the urban service area and the non -urban service area, as shown in the table below, is on the following page. Population projection Growth rate Growth rate Growth rate Area 1997 July 199740 2000 July 200045 2005 July 2005-10 2010 July Urban Service Area Wilmington 64,164 1.31% 66,725 County 57,137 2.91% 62,271 Non -Urban Service Area 17,817 1.20% 18,466 Unincorp. Co. south of Snows Cut 1,286 1.10% 1,329 Wrightsville Beach 3,197 0.75% 3,269 Carolina Beach 4,854 2.50% 5,227 Kure Beach 756 1.50% 791 Above New Hanover Co. Total 149,211 1.99% 158,078 North Carolina 7,436,700 1.31% 7,733,100 Using: NC Office of State Planning growth rates, and NHC and Wil. Planning Dept's. growth estimates. 0.94% 69,925 0.91 % 73,179 1.99% 68,732 1.84% 75,303 0.85% 19,264 0.75% 19,998 0.75% 1,379 0.50% 1,414 0.55% 3,360 0.45% 3,436 2.00% 5,771 1.50% 6,218 1.00% 831 0.90% 869 1.43% 169,264 1.39% 180,416 1.03% 8,138,800 0.97% 8,543,300 Trend. By 2010 the County will add another 31,200 people. In 1997 the population of the County was 149,200 and by 2010 the projection is 180,400. The County population on the following chart is projected to increase from approximately 149,200 to 180,400, for an increase of 31,200 people between 1997 and 2010. The growth rate per year is projected to decrease from approximately 4.0% to 1.4% during the time period. The City population is projected to increase from approximately 64,200 to 73,200 between 1997 and 2010, with the growth rate decreasing from 1.3% to 0.9% per year. Trend.. Since 1990 there has been an accelerated rate of growth in the County. The same is true for the City post 1980. 'If allowed by the N.C. courts "Annexation '95 " would add 10,700 people to the City population and "Annexation '98" would add 13,000. For more details see section IV. • • • 7 • 200 180 160 MR, 0 0 CD 120 x c 100 0 r 80 a IL 60 40 20 New Hanover County and Wilmington Recent Population Growth and Projections --� New Hanover County +City of Wilmington 0 Ln 0 Ln 0 Ln 0 Ln O U,) O m 0 ti P 0 00 rn M o 0 rn M rn rn M rn rn rn 0 0 0 N N N Immigration to New Hanover County The bulk of population growth in New Hanover County has been and will continue to be a result of people moving to the County from other parts of the Country. This is shown in the following chart on :r the next page with a comparison of existing immigration and projected immigration. The chart shows that the percentage of growth attributable to immigration has increased from 69% in 1980 to 85% currently and that the percentage will continue to increase to 88% by 2010. Population change as a result of a natural increase in fertility and/or a declining death rate will constitute a smaller share of the County's population growth. This net natural growth rate will decrease from 3 1 % in 1980 to 12% by 2010. Trend. In the 1990's decade 85% of the population growth has been due to net. immigration to the County. Only 15% has been due to births. The trend to 2010 is for more of the same. 40 35 c 30 0 0 25 m a� 20 s v 0 15 cc 0 c 10 a 5 0 New Hanover County Population Growth and Immigration p Net Growth (Births -Deaths) Net Migration 1980-1990 1990-2000 Year Interval 12% 2000-2010 • i U E IV. NEW HANOVER COUNTY • POPULATION GROWTH COMPARISON Migration, Birth and Deaths: in the Four County Region The following table and chart compare population change in New Hanover County and neighboring Brunswick, Columbus, and Pender counties from 1996 to 2010. Population growth occurs in a similar pattern in Brunswick, Pender and New Hanover Counties with a high percentage of the growth rate attributable to migration verses a small percentage attributable to natural growth. Columbus County is projected to have almost no growth from 1996 to 2010 with a net out migration. Comparison of County Births Deaths Migration Population Change (x 1000) Population 1996-2010 County 1996 2010 Change '96210 Births Deaths Net Growth (Births - Net Migration (Pop. Deaths) Change - Net Growth) Brunswick 62.1 84.5 22.4 12.8 11.9 0.9 21.5 Columbus 51.3 51.8 0.5 11.0 9.7 1.3 -0.8 New Hanover 142.0 179.8 37.8 30.4 24.1 6.3 31.5 Pender 35.5 48.3 12.8 7.8 6.2 1.6 11.2 Source: Office of State Planning Comparison: Population Growth and Migration 1996 - 2010 40 35 c 30 0 0 c 25 a� 20 c co v 15 0 10 R a 5 0 a 0 -5 • B Net Growth (Births - Deaths) N Net Migration 00 U > C O N C L 0 0_ 2 _ U m 3 a� z WE Population Growth Comparison y In the Four County Area The bulk of the population in the four County area is in New Hanover, with the remainder in Brunswick, Columbus, and Pender. The below table and chart shows existing and projected growth in two successive decades from 1990 and 2010. Brunswick, New Hanover, and Pender have estimated annual growth rates from 2% to 2.6%, while Columbus shows almost no growth. Comparison of Four County Area Region "0" (x 1000) Population 1990-2010 1990 2000 2010 Total Growth Growth per year Brunswick 51.0 69.7 84.5 66% 2.6% Columbus 49.6 52.3 51.8 4% 0.2% New Hanover 120.3 156.2 179.8 49% 2.0% Pender 28.9 39.7 48.3 67% 2.6% Source: Office of State Planning Population Growth of Four County Area 180 .,160------------------ - - - --- - 0 1 ------ - - - - -- -------------------------- 0120 ____ -------------------------- �100 -------------------- ----------------------------- 0 80 --------------------------------------- 0 60 1 - - -- -- - - - - -- ---------------------- Q. 40 --------------------- n. 20 ------------------------- 0 1990 2000 2010 —*—Brunswick _Columbus ANew Hanover—)Pender Population Growth Comparison As the following table and chart show, New Hanover County will have the third largest population growth change as a percentage from 1995 to 2010 compared with seven other major urban counties in North Carolina. The percent growth change between 1995 to 2010 in the shown counties ranges from 12% in Forsyth to 46% in Wake. New Hanover's population growth change is projected to be 29%. • is • 11 Trend. Of the compared major cities and counties in the state, Wilmington New Hanover County is projected to show the third highest growth percent change to 2010 behind Raleigh and Charlotte. Comparison of County Growth Population (in 000's) County Major City in County 1990 1995 2000 2010 % Change'95210 Cumberland (Fayetteville) 274.7 294.0 314.8 354.9 21 % Durham (Durham) 181.9 192.9 203.3 229.2 19% Forsyth (Winston-Salem) 265.9 279.9 294.8 314.4 12% Guilford (Greensboro) 347.4 372.1 395.0 425.4 14% Mecklenburg (Charlotte) 511.5 577.5 640.3 757.7 31 % New Hanover (Wilmington) 120.3 139.6 158.1 180.4 29% Onslow (Jacksonville) 149.8 147.9 156.4 181.8 23% Wake (Raleigh) 426.3 518.3 602.2 758.4 46% From: NC Office of State Planning 50% w 45% R 40% V 35% 30% c 25% 0 20% c 15% 10% a 5% 0% • County Population Growth 1995-2010 a> v E c a� w o t v o 3> °' rn U ti _ M 12 Persons Per Square Mile: Density New Hanover County compared with three neighboring counties has a very high population density or persons per square mile, as shown in the following table and chart. This is because the County is small and is largely urbanized. The density of New Hanover County is projected to increase from 700 to 900 persons per square mile between 1995 and 2010. The other three counties are projected to have densities of approximately 50 to 100 persons per square mile. In 1995 the State average persons per square mile was 146 and by 2010 the density is projected to be 166. Comparison of Four County Density Region "O" Population Density . (x 1000) Persons per Square Mile County 1970 1995 2010 Brunswick 28 71 99 Columbus 50 55 55 New Hanover 417 702 904 Pender 21 40 55 Source: NC Office of State Planning 1000 900 800 m 700 E 600 H 500 o 400 m 300 IL 200 100 0 Four County Area Density ®1970 0 1995: p 2010 Brunswick Columbus New Hanover Ponder The following chart and table show that by the year 2010 New Hanover County is projected to be the second or third densest county (only slightly behind second most dense: Wake County), in terms of persons per square mile, of the eight indicated major urbanized counties in the state. The presented persons per square mile ranges from approximately 200 in Onslow to 1,400 in Mecklenburg. By the year 2010 New Hanover County will have a density projected to be 900 persons per square mile. • • 13 • • Trend. Wilmington -New Hanover County by 2010 is projected. to have the 2"d or 3rd densest population of the surveyed major cities and counties in the state at 904 persons per square mile. By 2010 the state average by County is projected to be 170 persons per square mile. Comparison of County Density Population Density (in 0O0's) Persons per Square Mile County Major City in 1970 1995 2010 County Cumberland (Fayetteville) 325 450 543 Durham (Durham) 457 664 788 Forsyth (Winston-Salem) 525 683 767 Guilford (Greensboro) 444 572 654 Mecklenburg (Charlotte) 672 1095 1438 New (Wilmington) 417 702 904 Hanover Onslow (Jacksonville) 134 193 237 Wake (Raleigh) 275 621 909 From: NC Office of State Planning 1600 1400 d 1200 R 1000 rn 800 `m Q c 600 O 400 a 200 0 County Density ®1995 ;,1 s f p 2010, �+ 6i x �x f k a� I fil D o as C O E U v —0% 0 m LL E r o a> 7>@ rn U a) Z 14 V. WILMINGTON POPULATION GROWTH COMPARISON • • Wilmington Population Annexation Comparison Not all growth in cities occurs as a result of births and immigrants. This natural growth may constitute only some of the growth in a given time period. Cities in North Carolina have historically and in recent years continued to grow as a result of annexations. The following figure shows Wilmington's growth and historical annexation patterns from colonial times to the 1980's. The following table shows that from 1970 to 1990 Wilmington annexed approximately 10,000 people. Wilmington annexed land with no population present on the land between 1990 to 1995. Recent Population Annexations by Wilmington 1970 Population 1980 Population 1990 Population 1995 Annexed Annexed Annexed '70= 80 180= 90 '90-'95 46,169 930 44,000 8,901 55,530 0 62,256 City of Wilmington data from: '7&295 OSP; '00-10 Wilmington Planning Div. projection. Comparison of City Population Growth The following table shows a comparison of eight major cities natural growth and annexation in North Carolina from 1990 to 1995. Natural growth is births minus deaths and net in migration to the respective cities. In half of the shown eight cities annexation exceeded natural growth. As previously mentioned, Wilmington annexed land between 1990 and 1995, but there was no resident population on this land, and thus the below chart shows that no population was annexed. • 15 Comparison of Growth in North Carolina's Major Cities Population Change (x 1000) Population Change'90-95 City In County 1990 Natural City Annexed 1995 Average Growth Growth Population Per Year Charlotte (Mecklenburg) 395.9 37.5 36.4 469.8 3% Durham (Durham) 136.6 7.3 4.2 148.1 2% Fayetteville (Cumberland) 75.9 5.3 12.0 93.2 4% Greensboro (Guilford) 183.9 6.3 3.1 193.3 1% Jacksonville (Onslow) 30.4 1.7 43.0 75.1 20% Raleigh (Wake) 212.1 21.3 15.9 249.3 3% Wilmington (New Hanover) 55.5 6.8 0.0 62.3 2% Winston-Salem (Forsythe) 143.5 3.4 18.9 165.8 3% From: NC Office of State Planning 8( 70 0 60 0 0 50 0 40 a c 30 R n 20 0 IL 10 0 City Growth 1990 -1995 gl Annexation p Natu ra I Growth °' m o E O L j O - N j N m f6 : U) C f0 E c U > l 0 cc> N • • • 16 Wilmington Population with Proposed Annexation • The map on the following page shows the locations of the proposed City of Wilmington annexation areas to the east and southeast of the city. The annexation areas are within the urban service boundary. These proposed annexation areas are known as "Annexation `95", and "Annexation'98". The following table shows that the proposed annexations have populations of approximately 10,700 in Annexation'95 and 13,000 in Annexation'98.5 Should these annexations occur the City would grow from 64,200 to 87,900 people. Trend. Cities in North Carolina have historically grown by annexation as the previous tables and chart shows. Similarly Wilmington is proposing to annex an area north-east of the City known as "Annexation '95", and south-east of the City know as "Annexation '98". If the courts allow this, there would be approximately 24,000 new residents added to City. Proposed Wilmington Annexations Population Estimates Location Pop. Year Estimate Population (x 1000) Existing City of Wilmington 1977 64.2 Annexation '95 1995 10.7 Annexation '98 1998 13.0 Subtotal 23.7 Total: City & annexations 87.9 from: NC Office of State Planning City of Wilmington Mnexation'95 report. City of Wilmington ITS Division. 0 s At time of press the annexation cases were being heard by the NC courts. 17 VI. RACE and DEMOGRAPHICS • New Hanover County and Wilmington The below table and pie charts on the next page show the race characteristics of New Hanover County and Wilmington. The predominant race percentages in the County in 1995 was: 78% White; 19% Black; and approximately 3% for Hispanics, Asians, and Pacific Islanders and the Others. Wilmington in 1995 was 66% White and 30% Black. The percentage of other races in the City was about the same as in the County at 3%. Between 1980 and 1995 the County saw a slight percentage increase of Whites and a slight decrease in the percent of Blacks. This trend is also shown in the City. However part of the White increase in the City is likely due to the approximately 9,000 people annexed from the suburbs into the City during this time period. Trend. In 1995 in the County, Whites comprised 78% of the population, Blacks 19%, and other races made up 3%. The projection for 2010 is similar. Race Characteristics of County and City New Hanover County 1980 1995 % by Race % by Race NHC 2010 % by Race 1980 1995 2010 • Whites 80,353 110,868 77% 79% Whites 143,067 79% Blacks 22,371 26,567 21% 19% Other 37,246 21% Hispanics 1,359 0.7% 1.0% 180,313 Asian & Pacific Islander 779 1,043 0.3% 0.7% Other 311 938 0.4% 0.7% 436 Wilmington 1980 1995 % by Race % by Race 1980 1995 Whites 26,468 41,536 60% 66% Blacks 17,264 18,969 39% 30% Hispanics 800 1.0% 1.3% 435 Asian & Pacific Islander 115 696 0.3% 1.1% Other 153 573 0.3% 0.9% 1980: From US Census. 1995: Wilmington Planning Div. based on 1990 and 1994 US Census estimates. 2010: NC Office of State Planning Simplified 2010 race projections by the North Carolina Office of State Planning are shown above for New Hanover County. This 2010 projected race composition is 79% White, and 21% for the Other census category, which refers to a mixture of Blacks, Hispanics, Asians, and Pacific Islanders, and other races. Projections of race to the year 2010 are tenuous at best due to the large influx of migrants to the area which is projected to be over 85% of the population growth as shown on page III-7. V. New Hanover County Demographic Structure The below chart shows the visual demographic structure for Whites and the other race category for New Hanover County for 1995. Shown are age groups and amount of males and females per group. As previously mentioned Whites constitute 78% of the population in the County. Of the other race category Blacks constitute approximately 97% of the shown males and females. The chart shows that with age the number of females per age category increases, as compared with males, particularly beyond the age of 60. New Hanover Co. (% by Race, 1995) Other 1% Black 19% 78% Wilmington (% by Race, 1995) Other 1% Black Asian & 30% Pacific Islander 1% : - Asian & Pacific Hispanic Islander 1% 1% Whit! Hispanic 1% Population Race and Sex Projections The following table and chart show the 1995 County population for race and sex with 2010 projections. In 1995 there were 4% more white females than males, and 10 more other race category females than males. The other race category is approximately 97% black, and thus there were in 1995 approximately 10% more black females than males in the County. Projections for 2010 are similar where there will be 4% more white females than males, and 12% more black (other race census category) females than males. 70+ 60-69 50-59 'W 40-49 V Q 30-39 20-29 10-19 0-9 New Hanover County Demographic Structure 1995 MALE FEMALE 0 White El Other - - M6N: dSP:ri vA4iuu{'d. Xdixa�S °:everNr. ,r.msxrne+�Kr wd4&19.fkY. tY'YN'rAM.6W,i: 'k414 rr3sf$i4tr+FYr1F'iAGti' K:+isFaaivrrat� lwarkA�xrei� 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 POPULATION • • • 19 • • New Hanover County Population Race and Sex Projections (x 1000) 1995 Percent (1995) 2010 Percent (2010) Race Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female White 50.4 54.6 48% 52% 57.3 62.1 48% 52% Other 12.3 15.2 45% 55% 14.0 17.5 44% 56% From: NC Office of State Planning; N.C. Pop. Projections, Winter'95, p. 92. Projections of Population by Age Group County projected population changes by age group are shown in the following table and chart for 1995 and 2010. Shown in the table are the percent changes and population change amounts between both years for each age group. The chart on the next page clearly shows the projected relatively large increase of people above the age of 50. This percent change increase of approximately 55% to 65% per age group for people above 50, shows that the County will increasingly shift to an older and more elderly population from 1995 to 2010. The cause of this shift is due to the large number of retirees moving to the area and the aging "baby boomers" in the County. Also shown is the approximate 14% to 22% increase in the number of young persons in the 0 to 19 age category. Most of these children will be in public schools. Adequate future school facilities, elderly needs, and related infrastructure concerns will need to be addressed with policy and implementation actions. 20 New Hanover County Projected Population by Age Group Population 1995 to 2010 Percent Pop. Age 1995 2010 Change Change 0-9 17523 20013 14% 2490 10-19 18224 22226 22% 4003 20-29 21911 23849 9% 1938 30-39 21790 23252 7% 1462 40-49 20439 25709 26% 5271 50-59 15576 25647 65% 10071 60-69 11322 18813 66% 7491 70+ 12962 20302 57% 7340 Source: NC Office of State Planning internet site Nov. 1997 Trend. From 1995 to 2010 it is projected that the 0 to 19 age group will increase by between 14% to 22% in New Hanover County. Most of these children will be in public schools. Adequate future school facilities and related infrastructure concerns will need to be addressed. 70% 60% 50% rn c t 40% V u 30% d a 20% 10% 0% New Hanover County Projected Population Growth by Age Group 1995 to 2010 10,100 7.300 5,300 2,500 4,000 1,900 1,500 F] 0-9 10-19 20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70+ Age Group • is • 21 Trend. The largest shift of the general New Hanover County population from 1995 to 2010 will be the aging baby boomers and immigrating retirees. Projections are for the age groups older than 50 to increase by 55% to 65%. Further evidence for the aging population in New Hanover County is shown in the following two tables. The first table shows that from 1980 to 1995 the median age in the County shifted from 30 to 36. By the year 2010 the median age is projected to be 40 an increase of 4 more years. The next table shows worker and elderly percentages in the County. Many of the elderly are dependent on working family to support them. The percentage of elderly is projected to increase from 13% to 17% between 1980 to 2000, and to 19% by 2010. The large increase in the elderly population should raise financial, social, and physical planning concerns for residents of the City and County. New Hanover County Median Age Shift 1980 1995 2010 30 36 40 Source: NC Office of State Planning; NC Pop. Projections, Winter'95, p. 78. •New Hanover County • Comparison of Workers and Elderly (65+ yrs) 1980 2000 2010 Amount % Amount % Amount Workers 68,000 87% 91,900 83% 99,100 81% Elderly 10,400 13% 19,100 17% 23,100 19% Source: NC Office of State Planning; NC Pop. Projections, Winter'95, p. 78. Trend. The projected shift to o more elderly population in the County by 2010 should raise issues with regard to: emergency medical services; nursing homes; and hospitals. 22 REFERENCES 1. Unless otherwise noted in the text all information in this report is from the United t • p Sates Census and the North Carolina, Office of State Planning, demographic home page site. 2. "North Carolina Population Projections, Office of State Planning, Winter 1995." NC Office of State Planning, 116 W. Jones St., Raleigh, NC. Dec. 1994. S. Morgan, P.W. Tillman. 94 p. • 23 • APPENDIX North Carolina Coastal Area Management Act Mandated Planning Requirements This report is one of the technical reports of the Coastal Area Management Act (CAMA) Land Use Plan. The Coastal Area Management Act (CAMA), from 1974 by the North Carolina General Assembly, requires that the 20 coastal counties of the state prepare land use plans. These plans provide a framework used to guide local leaders as they make decisions for the protection, preservation, orderly development and management of the North Carolina coastal area. The original CAMA Land Use Plan for New Hanover County was adopted in 1976. Updates to the plan are required by CAMA on five year intervals. This report is part of the 1997 update (previous updates were: 1981, 1986 and 1991) performed in conjunction with the Wilmington -New Hanover Comprehensive Planning Program, initiated in 1974. In accordance with CAMA-requirements, the land use plan consists of the following elements: Summary of data collection and analysis; Existing land use map; Policy discussion; and Land classification map. This information serves an important role in the formulation of local development regulations, such as zoning ordinances, and it provides input for growth policy decisions. Population Exponential Growth Rate Equation In this report a population exponential growth rate equation was used for projections (pp. 125-6. in "Urban Land Use Planning" 4th ed., 1995, E. Kaiser, D. Godschalk, and F. Chapin. Univ. of Illinois Press., Urbana, I11.). The equation is as follows. Where: r = rate of growth per unit time. Pt+„ = projected population size at future year, n units of time beyond base year t. Pt = population in base year t. n = number of time periods beyond base year t. For population growth: Pt+„ = Pt (1 + r) For rate of population growth: r = ( P t + n / P t )1/n - 1 24 Environmental Resources & Constraints • • • Technical Reports -------------------------- rl� Environmental Resources and Constraints of New Hanover County and Wilmington, North Carolina A Technical Report for the County and City Comprehensive Plan 1997-2010 • October 1997 Prepared by the New Hanover County Planning Department 414 Chestnut Street, Suite 304, Wilmington, NC 28401 (910)341-7165 City of Wilmington Planning Division 202 N. 3rd Street, Wilmington, NC 28401 (910) 341-3258 • Environmental Resources and Constraints of New Hanover County and Wilmington, North Carolina Table of Contents I. Introduction II. Water Resources Groundwater Surface Water III. Fragile Areas County Classifications State Classifications Federal Classifications IV. Hazard Areas Ocean Hazard Areas Floodplains Airport Industrial Hazards Sea Level Rise V. Soils VI. Air Quality VII. Resource Potential Areas Prime Farmland Forestry Resources Mineral Resources Public Lands • 1 1 13 21 25 26 27 INTRODUCTION The purpose of this technical report is to describe the environmental resources and constraints that will be instrumental in shaping the direction, type and rate of growth in New Hanover County. This report examines water resources, fragile areas, hazard areas, soils, air quality, and resource potential areas. L WATER RESOURCES Water resources in the County can be broken down into groundwater and surface water systems, although it is important to note that water moves with limited restrictions between the two systems. Approximately 54% of the population of New Hanover County receives their water supply from groundwater and 46% receive their water from the Cape Fear River. The County report, "Drinking Water in New Hanover County" (1989), summarizes the various water systems currently utilized by county residents and examines some of the factors associated with possible implementation of a county- wide water system. A. GROUNDWATER 1. Physical Characteristics The County's fresh groundwater system consists primarily of a near -surface, unconfined aquifer and two deeper, confined aquifers. The unconfined aquifer is generally sandy and wells exposed to it range in depth from approximately 20 to 75 feet. The two deeper confined aquifers are composed of limestone and sandstone, respectively. Wells exposed to these aquifers range in depth from about 75 to 200 feet. 2. Yield and Hydraulic Characteristics Wells deeper than 200 feet will usually yield brackish water. These confined aquifers slope southeastward from where they approach the surface in the Castle Hayne and Wrightsboro areas (figure 1 - area 2 ), and extend in the subsurface to a maximum depth of two hundred feet along the coast. The degree of connectivity between all of these aquifers varies considerably. Very little information is available on the attributes of the near surface, unconfined aquifer. As a general rule, the water yield from a shallow well is sufficient to supply a single family residence on a 1/3 acre lot. However, in the industrial corridor along Highway 421, where the unconfined aquifer is thick and composed of coarse -grained sand, a large well can produce two to six hundred gallons per minute (gpm) on a 24-hour sustained yield. Due to its shallow depth and transmissive nature, this aquifer is extremely vulnerable to pollution. The confined aquifers are the principally -used aquifers in the County. Estimates by the N.C. Department of Environmental Management, Groundwater Section indicate that approximately 71.7 million gallons per day (mgpd) of groundwater could be available on a continually sustained basis for the entire County. Sustained yield in any one area may be between 200,000 to 2,000,000 gpd per square mile. 0 :� ��♦ r I s �� 1 ... Approximate Scale 1' . 3 furies P� i OG� or 6 F1 MASON INLET WRICITTr4LLE zrAH MASONB'ORO INLZT IQ Q ICAROLlNA BEACH Wla J CAROLIHA BEACH IKME BEACH l 0 NEW ImLzr AQUIFER SENSITIVITY Primary recharge area of principal aquifers (combined Castle Hayne and Peedee aquifers -confined artesian aSecondary recharge areas for Castle Hayne or Peedee where occurring near land surface under water -table conditions Recharge area of Sandhill aquifer -water -table conditions ,4 Chiefly a discharge area for ground -water now 5 Nondescript area -a relatively poor aquifer and not a recharge source of pnncipal aquifers A shallow water -table sand aquifer and underlying artesian aquifer containing fr• water over salty water • A "Groundwater Field Evaluation Report" to the New Hanover County Groundwater Task Force in December, 1996 estimated that a water supply of 23 mgpd is readily available from the Pee Dee and Castle Hayne aquifers in the mid -county area. Although the amount of groundwater utilized across New Hanover County has not been documented since 1980, a shift in usage has occurred and should be noted. As a result of annexations, many residential areas are now utilizing city water rather than groundwater systems, thus decreasing residential usage in some areas. However, the continued development of the beach communities, new golf course projects, both of which utilize groundwater, and new commercial centers increase demand for groundwater. The extent of these changes and the total amount of groundwater being used is not available to date. It is estimated that the groundwater aquifer system could theoretically support a maximum population of approximately 441,000 ( "Drinking Water in New Hanover County", 1989), based upon an average per capita use of approximately 140 gallons per day and some estimates from 1980 usage figures. However, it is unlikely that the groundwater aquifer alone could support a population of this size, as the withdrawals and resultant aquifer drawdown would result in problems with lateral saltwater intrusion, sinkhole development, and increased iron and total hardness. 3. Groundwater Quality Presently, the groundwater system is still relatively free of pollution but there are a growing number of incidents of contamination. As of September 1996, approximately 494 incidents of contamination had been documented, most of which are associated with accidental industrial spills (122) or leaking underground storage tanks (372). These sites are located throughout the county but are somewhat more abundant in the industrial sectors of the county which are adjacent to the Cape Fear and Northeast Cape Fear Rivers. Two sites in New Hanover have been identified as State Priority Sites due to the size of their contamination plumes. Both sites are located in the northern part of the county and are being monitored. The aquifer in the Flemington area along Hwy. 421 became polluted from an old landfill site, resulting in the County's provision of a small 280,000 gpd water system. A well -monitoring system has been established for this area to determine the extent of groundwater impacts. Another area along Castle Hayne Road in the Wrightsboro Community was also recently found to be contaminated, this one from leaking fuel tanks from a nearby service station. The wells in this area are being monitored and the affected homes are being connected to the County's water system. The natural quality of the near -surface, unconfined aquifer system is extremely variable. Generally, it is characterized by the presence of iron, carbon dioxide and sodium, resulting idan acidic, soft, and slightly corrosive water quality. Iron content can range from none to high. The deep, confined aquifers are characterized by the presence of calcium bicarbonate, resulting in a typically hard quality of water, with a basic pH. The unconfined aquifer is recharged by rainfall. In turn, water in the shallow aquifer eventually moves down into the deep aquifer system. The deep aquifer has a primary and a secondary recharge area as shown in Figure 1. The primary recharge area is where the greatest quantity of recharge takes place. The secondary recharge area, though smaller in area, is more vulnerable to pollution due to its shallow • 3 depth. Thus, it has become increasingly important to closely control and monitor development activities within that recharge area. • The viability of a county -wide water system utilizing the deep groundwater aquifer has been explored by a Groundwater Task Force and found to be feasible. If developed, groundwater would be drawn from a wellfield located in the northeast central part of the county and then be treated at the Sweeney Water Plant on River Road. This would likely be supplemented by water from the Cape Fear River, which currently comes from above lock and dam number one, via a pipeline. 4. Groundwater Classes The state has classified all groundwaters for purposes of monitoring and regulation. The different classes are defined in terms of depth, salinity and best possible use. The classes in New Hanover county include the following: a. GA - These waters can be best used for drinking and food preparation without treatment, except that necessary to correct naturally occurring conditions. They have a chloride content less than 250 milligrams per liter (mg/o and begin at the top of the near -surface water table, generally at depths of about 10 feet. b. GSA - These waters are similar to GA waters except that they have a chloride concentration greater than 250 mg/I and cannot be used for drinking without reduction of salinity. c. GC - This class includes those groundwaters that do not meet quality criteria of FA or GSA waters and for which efforts to restore these waters to a higher classification, while still in place, • would not be feasible or in the best interest of the public. The North Carolina department of Environment, health and Natural Resources has developed extensive standards for regulating pollution of these different water classes. These water quality standards deal with maximum allowable concentrations of heavy minerals, bacteria and synthetic organic compounds. The regulations do allow some degradation of the groundwater resources; however, degradation is not allowed beyond either established compliance boundaries or property boundaries. It is the intent of the regulations to preserve the quality of the groundwater and allow no degradation of any class below the standards established for that class. B. SURFACE WATER 1. Cape Fear River The Cape Fear River basin is the largest in the state, covering approximately 9,149 square miles. There are 27 counties and 114 municipalities located fully or partially within the basin. Major industries include textiles, chemical manufacturing, silviculture, and agriculture. While over half of the river basin is forested, the last decade has found the amount of developed land steadily increasing while the amount of cropland has been on the decline. The lower Cape Fear basin also encompasses the most concentrated turkey and hog producing areas in the state, in Sampson and Duplin counties. a. Water Use City of Wilmington residents and certain residents in the unincorporated county are presently served by a municipality owned and operated water system utilizing raw surface water from the Cape Fear River pumped from just above Lock and Dam #1 at the Kings Bluff Pumping Station. The City's Sweeney filtration plant, at 407 Hilton Street, originally began service in 1943. The Sweeney plant has recently undergone construction and renovation that will increase the design capacity from 15 to 25 million gallons per day (MGD). This work was needed to address increasing demands of the current system to recent annexations, extension of water lines beyond the city, and projected commercial and industrial growth. Additional raw water is also available to the City from the Lower Cape Fear Water and Sewer Authority. b. River Water Quality In North Carolina, all named streams have been classified as to their "best usage". In a recent study, "Water Quality Progress in North Carolina" (1993) by the Division of Environmental Management, it is shown that for streams and rivers in the state, 67% support their uses, 2 1 % partially support and 4% do not support their uses (8% were not evaluated). This "use support" classification is based upon water chemistry data and involves computing percentages of the values in violation of applicable North; Carolina standards. For example, `fully supporting" is defined as standard exceedences less than or equal to 10% of the total observations with the mean of measurements less than the standard. By comparison, species richness values are calculated for three groups of pollution intolerant • benthic fauna. These biological classifications generally correspond to the "use support" rankings: poor = not supporting, fair = partially supporting, good -fair = support threatened, good -excellent = supporting. For the total Cape Fear River basin "stream miles" (6204 miles), this 1993 DEM study shows that 37.9% fully support, 34% support -threatened, 15% partially support, and 3.4% do not support their uses (9.0% were not evaluated). The major sources (reasons) for partially and non -supporting streams for the Cape Fear River are municipal waste water treatment plants (WWTP) (9.1%), unknown nonpoint sources (42.1%), agricultural runoff (34.8%), urban runoff (9.9%) and industrial WWTP's (3.1). The major causes of the degradation are undifferentiated (18.0%), multiple (18.%) and sediment (54.1%). This report states that there were 391 active permitted surface water discharges in the basin, an increase of 25% since 1984. According to the 1996 "Cape Fear River Basinwide Water Quality Management Plan", of the tidal saltwater estuaries and sounds in the Cape Fear River basin, 73% fully support and 27% partially support their uses. Major causes of partially supporting streams are multiple nonpoint source pollution including agriculture, urban runoff, septic tanks, and marina. A coalition of industries, municipalities and educators has evolved to develop a monitoring program. UNC-Wilmington is overseeing the group and performing the monitoring. In June of 1995, a broad -scale water sampling program in the Cape Fear was begun under the auspices of the Cape Fear 7N River Program. Sixteen stations throughout the estuary and the lower Cape Fear River, Black and Northeast Cape Fear Rivers were sampled monthly. The number of stations was increased to 34 in • February 1996. Data were collected for a variety of physical, chemical and biological parameters. This study compared nutrients and turbidity in water samples taken during summer 1995 in the mainstream of the Lower Cape Fear River with samples taken in two of its tributaries, the Northeast Cape Fear River and the Black Rivers. The findings included high levels of inorganic nitrogen predominating in the mainstream of the Cape Fear, but the tributaries contained more organic nitrogen. Such high levels can lead to algal blooms, eutrophication and fish kills. Turbidity in the mainstream of the Cape Fear River exceeds state water quality standards, while turbidity in the blackwater tributaries is very low. In addition to the increased cost of water treatment, turbidity decreases plants ability to photosynthesize, it clogs the gills of fish, and fills in creek beds which are home to many juvenile fish and other aquatic organisms. Turbidity and nutrients, such as nitrate are indicators or non -point source runoff, especially agriculture. During the Summer of 1995, several animal waste lagoon spills occurred in the Cape Fear Watershed. This resulted in high nutrient loads entering receiving waters, algal blooms, fish kills, and high turbidity concentrations. Low dissolved oxygen (DO) levels were observed in local receiving streams. The lowest DO level was found 55 miles downstream of the waste input as well as elevated nutrients. High concentrations of fecal coliform bacteria and other pathogens were also introduced to the receiving waters. With the growing number of waste lagoons in the watershed there is an increased potential for environmental damage from adverse weather conditions (Nor'easters, tropical storms, hurricanes). c. Drinking Water Treatment • The City of Wilmington presently uses a conventional multi -step treatment process for purification of its drinking water supply. Raw water is injected with chemicals such as alum and polymer to coagulate mud and silt called turbidity and organic matter. Caustic or lime are also added as needed for alkalinity and pH adjustment. Chlorine Dioxide is added for disinfection, oxidation, and to assist with control of formation of disinfection by-products. These by-products such as trihalomethanes (THM's) are generated by the addition of chlorine to water containing organic matter. Coagulated water is then mixed and the coagulated material then is allowed to settle before the water is filtered. The water is then adjusted for pH with caustic or lime. Fluoride for dental cared is added, a phosphate compound to reduce the water's corrosiveness is added and chlorine. When the City's renovations and upgrades are complete, new technologies will assist the plant with meeting upcoming new regulations, as well as continuing to meet and exceed current regulations. The City's plant constantly monitors the water to ensure that all applicable maximum limits for current parameters are not exceeded. 2. Tidal Creeks and the Estuarine Watersheds New Hanover County began to study its tidal creeks and the estuarine watersheds because of growing community concern over declining water quality in the creeks and sounds. As rapid population growth exerted increasing pressure on the areas fragile and limited natural resources, estuarine water quality had become one of the early_ casualties. A gradual yet continuous decline, it eventually resulted in • `"' the closure of once prime shellfishing areas throughout the county. With the closure of Howe Creek, a state designated Outstanding Resource Water, on December 6, 1991, all of New Hanover County's estuarine creeks were fully or partially closed to shellfishing. The issue was further defined during the development of the Wilmington -New Hanover County Land Use Plan Update in 1991-93, as area residents expressed increasing concern over: declining water quality; potential groundwater pollution; over development; and a perceived decline in the overall quality of the environment. As a result, land use policies were adopted that called for the County and City to take all necessary actions to prevent further deterioration of estuarine water quality and to bring all coastal waters up to the highest quality possible. This included the protection, preservation and restoration of shellfishing in the tidal creeks and sounds through the development of an Estuarine Watershed Management Program. a. Estuarine Watershed Program Work began on the Program in 1992, with development of watershed profiles and review of existing regulations. A preliminary report on the issues and recommended actions was completed in September 1993. The Estuarine Watershed Management Program addresses community estuarine water quality problems and related land use issues through an innovative public -private collaboration that provides for unique research/demonstration projects, tidal creek water quality studies, and land use implementation measures. The Program was designed as a collaborative effort between New, Hanover County, the Northeast New Hanover Conservancy, and the Center for Marine Science Research at the University of North Carolina, Wilmington. The Program represents a creative departure from previous undertakings, in that the funding and management area joint effort of the County, the University, and the Conservancy. In addition, the three organizations work closely together on special projects, such as the Futch Creek Demonstration Project (discussed, below), as well as enlisting the support of other groups and agencies as the program evolves. These would eventually grow to include the State of North Carolina's Division of Environmental Health/Shellfish Sanitation, Division of Coastal Management, and Division of Soil & Water Conservation; U.S. Department of Agriculture -Natural Resources Conservation Service, Cape Fear Resource Conservation & Development; U.S. Army Corps of Engineers; PenderWatch and Conservancy and others. b. Futch Creek Demonstration Project The most significant achievement to date has been the reopening of Futch Creek to shellfishing in May of 1996 This was made possible by the University's Tidal Creek Water Quality Studies, which helped to support the development, funding, and multi -agency approvals necessary for a Clean Water Demonstration Project for the creek. This pilot project, which began in 1994, was designed to study the effects of salinity and tidal flushing on the fecal coliform levels in the creek, as coliform levels are the indicator used by Shellfish Sanitation for determining water quality. While fecal coliforms themselves may or may not be pathogenic to humans, their abundance is often indicative of sewage or other pollution and the possibility of the presence of human pathogens. The project consisted of dredging two channel openings through the shoals at the mouth of the creek and monitoring the upstream effects. It was preceded by shoreline surveys, septic system and tidal dye studies, and land use surveys to eliminate the possibility of known point source discharges for the coliform pollution. The south channel was opened in April 1995 and the north channel in April 1996, with a subsequent reduction in fecal coliform abundance ranging from 45-80%. The evidence from the study suggests that fecal coliform survival is greatly reduced in higher salinity waters. It also points to a likely terrestrial source for the pollution in the upper reaches of the creek, possibly concentrations of indigenous animal populations, such as raccoon and deer. Monitoring of the creek is continuing, including groundwater and wildlife studies, and a Community Steering Committee is working with the Planning Board on the completion and adoption of the Futch Creek Watershed Management Plan. The reopening of Futch Creek to shellfishing has provided tangible water quality benefits to local residents, including direct economic benefits to the fishing/shellfishing industry. It has also generated coastal wide interest, which may help lead to the development of other estuarine watershed programs throughout coastal North Carolina. 3. Environmental Quality Factors a. Commercial Resources Water quality constraints strongly influence the intensity and location of future growth. Maintenance of an adequate level of high quality surface water is extremely important to the County's economy and environment. Finfishing, shellfishing and clean water for recreational activities help support the areas high quality of life that is enjoyed by both residents and tourists. The preliminary dockside value of finfish and shellfish which were reported for New Hanover County from 1990-1996 are shown in table 2. Note that these numbers represent landings only (eg- the amount which was sold to commercial fish houses) and are therefore extremely conservative. The average amount of finfish and shellfish caught per year is 1,971,912 pounds. The average total price of • these fish was $2,716,996 per year. Figure 2 shows the location of Primary Nursery Areas (PNA's). These areas have been designated by the State as being highly conducive for juvenile habitat for marine species. Destruction of these areas, either physically by dredging and filling or by pollution, damages the ecosystem, decreases or eliminates certain economically valuable sport and commercial fishing and reduces the overall attractiveness of the County and it's adjacent water. Figure 3 indicates where shellfish beds are closed as a result of pollution. This designation declares it unlawful to possess, sell or take oysters, clams or mussels in these areas. These closed beds are generally shown to be near the most developed areas of the waterfront, e.g. near dense subdivisions, marinas, and waste treatment plant outfalis. Note that the extent of closure surrounding marinas is dependent on size and other characteristics of the marina. Historically, once an area has been closed, it is likely that the closure will become permanent. However, the tidal creek research and resulting demonstration project on Futch Creek that led to its reopening is indicative of what can be done. b. Degradation Sources There are basically three sources of pollution that influence water quality : septic systems, urban runoff, and waste treatment and disposal systems. 0 1. Septic systems Septic system failure can result from septic systems that are inadequately designed, placed in poor soils, or inadequately maintained. The result may be leaching of untreated or partially treated domestic waste into surface waters. Now that more stringent regulations and setbacks are in place governing septic tank installation, the more common causes of septic tank failure are attributed to unsuitable soil conditions and users exceeding the system design capability. In a 1982 report, "The Impact of Septic Tanks on Shellfish Waters", DEM demonstrated that shellfish beds on New Hanover County creeks tend to become closed if septic system density exceeds one system per seven acres. With the increasing intensity of development this "seven acre" ideal situation is not feasible. However, with improved design and installation, negative environmental impacts of these systems can be mitigated. The development of watershed management plans and additional sewer system construction will help to reduce this particular problem. 2. Urban Runoff Urban runoff pollution is a rather broad term used to describe a number of sources and typed of pollution. Urban runoff includes the washing off of petroleum products, animal wastes, and other debris from roads, parking lots and roofs; runoff of lawn pesticides and fertilizer; and the intrusion of large "slugs" of freshwater and sediment -laden water from impervious surfaces which upset the estuarine salinity and turbidity balance. A special case of urban runoff is marina operations which not only involve runoff pollution and intrusion from impervious surfaces, but also petroleum product leakage and wastewater flushing from boats. A number of studies, including the Nationwide Urban Runoff Program (NURP) sponsored by the US Environmental Protection Agency, have shown that urban storm water runoff is a significant contributor to water quality impairment. Approximately 200 miles of streams in the Cape Fear River Basin are thought to be impaired by urban storm water. Greenfield lake is one of several streams identified as being at least partially impaired from urban runoff based on DEM's most recent biological monitoring. Sedimentation is of great concern in the Cape Fear River Basin. It is essentially a widespread nonpoint source -related water quality problem which results from land -disturbing activities. Major types of these activities include agriculture and land -development. Subbasins 16 and 17 of the Lower Cape Fear River and coastal waters have a combined total of 106 miles of streams impaired by erosion and sedimentation. Additionally, the Northeast Cape Fear River basin contains 103 miles of impaired streams. In 1990, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) began requiring that municipalities and most industries apply for a permit for point source storm water discharges to state waters or to separate storm water systems. The intent of the new legislation is to monitor and more closely control pollution impacts associated with storm water discharges. Cities, towns and counties that operate facilities with certain industrial activities must apply for the permits. In New Hanover County, this includes vehicle maintenance facilities, landfills, wastewater treatment plants, airports, "waste to energy" facilities and certain wastewater sludge disposal facilities. New Hanover County adopted a Conservation Overlay District (COD) in 1984 as part of the isZoning Ordinance. This plan is further described below in the section titled, "Fragile Areas". The COD o= Map C,..hd on 11/1 &W Monn"m TwlnoWpy • Legend ® Prfmary Nursery Areas 0 County Boundary 4 _Mllu Primary Nursery Areas Spec%/ Secondary Nursery Areas L] M*r Roads Dao~jl M—.ffi n "we 11 Pender County /r Y %yam Legend ' i Pmhlb/ted Areas ❑ County Boundary w�eer+r+dm /tnmue mam.m, rem..k y • Closed Shellfish Beds N Marinas L', Major Roads o.oy�onry mam.ra, sy.nm. r � r Pender County Il regulations can significantly reduce urban runoff pollution by utilizing stormwater retention, buffer . strips, setbacks and the preservation of wetlands in their natural state. 3. Waste Treatment and Disposal Systems The approximate location of waste treatment and disposal systems in the County are shown in figures 4 and 5. A minimum discharge rate of 2,000 gallons per day was used as the cutoff value. There are two types of treatment and disposal systems: (1) "discharge systems those that discharge treated effluent into surface waters (which are regulated by DEM and require a National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System (NPDES) permit) and are considered to be point source discharge sites; and, (2) "non -discharge systems" -those that disperse treated wastes onto the ground through spray irrigation or into the ground using a subsurface disposal system (private systems are regulated by the County Health Department and public systems are regulated by DEM and require an NPDES permit). Approximately two -third of these systems are from local industries, including several from licensed public utilities and privately operated waste treatment facilities. Approximately one third handle domestic wastes from subdivisions. A recent study found that 296 point source discharges occur upstream in the Cape Fear Basin. 3. Surface Water Quality Classes The State has classified the water quality of different surface waters in the County as shown in Figure 6. These classes are based upon the "best usage" for each water body, as determined through studies, evaluations and the holding of public hearings to consider the proposed classification schemes. Each class is subject to protection toward maintaining "best usage" and regulation of discharges into the waters. Note in Figure 6 that some of these waters have multiple supplemental classifications. More details on each class can be found in "Classifications and Water Quality Standards Assigned to the Waters of the Cape Fear River Basin" (1990) by the Division of Environmental Management. The areas shown are subject to change. a. Fresh Waters: Class WSIV waters can only be found at one location in the county, Toomer's creek, 0.8 mile upstream of Wilmington's water supply intake. This means that these waters could serve as an alternative source of drinking water for the city, assuming adequate treatment was provided. Toomer's Creek is sometimes used as a source of drinking water in emergency situations. Class WSIII waters are protected as water supplies. These areas are usually found in undeveloped water sheds. Point source discharges of treated wastewater must follow rules of the state surface water standards. In addition, local programs are required to control non -point sources and stormwater discharges of pollution. These waters are suitable for all usage specified by the C classification. Class B waters are protected for primary recreation which includes swimming on a frequent or organized basis by the C classification. 12 " Class C waters are those areas best used for aquatic life propagation and survival, fishing, _. wildlife, secondary recreation and agriculture. • b. Tidal Salt Waters: Class SA waters are best used for commercial shellfishing and other uses specified by SB and SC. Many of the County's SA waters are also classed as Outstanding Resource Waters, described below. Class SB waters are best used for primary recreation and other uses specified by the SC class. Class SC waters are best used for aquatic life propagation and survival, fishing, wildlife and secondary recreation. All saltwater are classified to protect uses at a minimum. Note that shellfishing is not allowed in Class SC waters. c. Supplemental Classes: Swamp waters (Sw's) are waters which have low velocities and other natural characteristics which are different from adjacent streams. High Quality Waters (HQW's) are waters which are rated as excellent based on biological and physical or chemical characteristics through Division of Environmental Management monitoring or special studies. This class includes, native and special trout waters (and their tributaries), some Primary Nursery Area's and other functional nursery areas, critical habitat areas, special water supply watersheds and all class SA waters. OutstandingResource Waters ORW's are unique and special waters • ( ) q p ters of exceptional state or national, recreational or ecological significance which require special protection to maintain existing areas. This designation, which applies to many SQ waters in the County, requires that new development within 575 feet of the waters meet coastal stormwater management regulations as specified by DEM. For example, the built upon area for development within this 575 foot area is limited to 25% of the parcel. The ORW designation also prohibits new or expanded discharges and new or expanded marinas. Also, additional stormwater control and land development restrictions may apply to areas with this classification. II. FRAGILE AREAS Fragile areas in the County cover a wide range of environmental resources, some of which have been briefly mentioned in previous sections of this report. There are County, State and Federal levels of classification and regulation schemes which apply to the fragile and hazard areas described below. Note that there is considerable overlap of the resource areas regulated by each level of government and some areas may fall under the auspices of all three. For example; a parcel of marsh may lie in an area described and mapped as part of the County's "Conservation Overlay District" and thus, be protected from certain levels of development. It may also be positioned along the estuarine system, thus designating it as part of the State's Coastal Wetlands Area of Environmental Concern (AECs) and eligible for protection under the Coastal Area Management Act (CAMA) regulations. And finally, the parcel may be defined as a "404" Wetland and be protected by Section 404 of the Federal Clean Water Act from being dredged or filled. • 13 • �0 • i CANOUNA BEACH XUr ....C. x CAROL NA MACH iKURE !EACH Approximate scale 1' . 3 Miles NEW !NLEr PERMITTED POINT SOURCE DISCHARGE (NPDES) SITES IndustriaXommercial Discharge (NPDES) Site • Residential Discharge (NPDES) Site TO BM"W ■ �1 NEW HANOVER COUNTY TO CIINTION TO )ACMN"= . nT i ' OG IT TO WRMVI r E MASON /NLZr • � errs o� Wilmington WRIGMVI= IFACH �vse� HASONROROINI" , I� v �p Q ° I CAROUNA REACH arts PERMITTED x ■ NONDISCHARGE GlOLIltA SUCH SITES : I RUBE DrACa ■ Industrial/commercial Nondischarge Site Residential Nondischarge Site Approximate Scale Q�? V . 3 Miles NEW lNu..T Local regulations may be more stringent than federal regulations, but in all cases, the strictest regulations imposed on an area will apply. A. County Classifications The County Zoning Ordinance established a Conservation Overlay District (COD) to help protect fragile areas through required preservation of 50% to 100% of the conservation resource, buffer strips and drainage controls. Setback distances range from 25 to 100 feet, depending on the COD classification. The fragile areas have been mapped on aerial photos and transparencies at a scale of 1" _ 400'. The COD includes the following fragile areas, referred tows Conservation Resources in the Zoning Ordinance. These resources are more fully described in the County Planning Report, "Conservation Resources in New Hanover County", prepared in 1984 by wetlands consultant, David Dumond. 1. Swamp Forests Swamp forest communities occur along all major and many non or freshwater streams and rivers of the County. Swamp forests are also associated with pocosins located at heads of streams. Much of the swamp forest is subject to tidal influence. The major tracts of swamp forest are along the Northeast Cape Fear River and its tributaries. Swamp forest communities occur along all major and many minor freshwater streams and rivers of the County. Swamp forests are also associated with pocosins located at heads of streams. Much of the swamp forest is subject to tidal influence. The major tracts of swamp forest are along the Northeast • Cape Fear River, and its tributaries. Swamp forests generally have a highly organic soil. Characteristic tree species include cypress, red maple, black gum, sweet gum, and swamp chestnut oak. 2. Pocosins Pocosins, meaning "pond on a hill", make up the greatest acreage of any natural vegetation in the County. Pocosins include Carolina Bays, transition areas between swamp forests and upland areas, and any other broad, level terrain where water is perched. Although the soil type may vary considerably, the County has expressed concern for those pocosins overlying highly organic soils. Pocosin vegetation usually consists of a scattered or diffuse canopy of pond or longleaf pine and a varied inventory of largely evergreen shrubs and briers, including fetter bush, several species of hollies and bays, and others. Venus fly traps and pitcher plants can be found in pocosins. 3. Savannahs Savannahs, relatively rare in the County, are characterized by longleaf pine and wire grass. Periodic fires are instrumental in preventing this vegetation type from becoming pocosin. Venus fly traps, pitcher plants, orchids, and other relatively rare herbaceous plants. are associated with savannahs. 16 Surface Water Quality Areas Legend -:1 SA M sB F—I sc N csw 0 scmaw# E] scsw 0 sc# yv ffl SAIORW N SO# 7 BSW 0 WSIII M.p C...d . 11/1&W bf—OW T. Makw • I Brunswick Counh, zl� 3 4 x, m 4.o7.phl. *e—ffm 8YOW", I Pender County • 4. Ponds Natural ponds are found throughout the County, usually where underlying marl has dissolved and the surface has slumped into the water table. Often less than an acre in size, they contain rare and diverse combinations of plants. Some County ponds contain loose water milfoil and dwarf bladderwort, both listed as threatened species in North Carolina. These natural ponds are exceedingly fragile and vulnerable to impacts from recreational vehicle use and indiscriminate drainage. 5. Fresh Marsh Fresh marsh occurs along the Northeast Cape Fear River and its tributaries and is associated with natural ponds. This type of marsh is characterized by pickerelweed, cattails, water willow, and other relatively salt intolerant species. 6. Brackish Marsh Brackish marshes intergrade between freshwater and saltwater marshes. They include most of the Cape Fear River marshes from Ness Creek south to Snow's Cut and are dominant at the headwaters of generally saline creeks such as Hewlett's and Whiskey Creeks. The characteristic species, in rough order of decreasing salinity preference, are black: needlerush, sawgrass, giant cordgrass, cattails, tearthumbs, and others. Brackish marsh also encompasses the old rice fields north of Wilmington that were cultivated in the 1700s and 1800s. 7. Barrier Island -Beach Complex The barrier island -beach complex represents the linear shoreline islands fronting the Atlantic Ocean. They are composed of unconsolidated sand and therefore, are unstable and vulnerable to hurricanes and natural erosion processes. Vegetation is generally sparse, consisting of such grass species as sea oats, beach grass, and coarse panic grass on the seaward dunes. Scattered woody vegetation, including yaupon holly, wax myrtle, and red cedar, may be found in more sheltered areas further back from the ocean. Barrier island -beach complexes include Zeke's Island (1,165 acres in Brunswick and New Hanover Counties), and Masonboro Island (5,097 acres in New Hanover County), which are part of the North Carolina National Estuarine Research Reserve Program, the beach area south of Kure Beach, and Figure Eight Island. Zeke's Island is technically part of Brunswick County but is more accessible from New Hanover County. The North Carolina Natural Heritage Trust Fund was established in 1987 to allow state agencies and non-profit organizations to purchase property for conservation purposes. Masonboro Island is a prime example of such an area. The state has spent millions of dollars preserving the island. It is the longest strip of undeveloped beach south of Cape Lookout. 90% of the Island is owned by the state. Other areas being sought by the state include: Goat Island, which is next to Masonboro, Roan Island, between the intersection of the Black and Cape Fear Rivers, and Bird Island, on the North Carolina/ South Carolina boundary. 18 8. Maritime Shrub Thickets These thickets of shrubby vegetation are characterized by an alternately wet and dry environment, subject both to storm and spring high tides and to salt spray. The typical species is wax myrtle, with some silverling, loblolly pine, yaupon holly and live oak. These thickets also contain the northernmost extensions of the natural range of cabbage palm. 9. Salt Marsh Salt marsh occurs in the regularly saltwater flooded muck soils of estuarine streams and behind barrier islands. These well documented productive systems are characterized by smooth cordgrass, saltmeadow cordgrass, salt grass and other saline tolerant species. 10. Primary Nursery Areas Figure 2 shows the location of Fisheries Nursery Areas. These areas which include primary, secondary and special secondary areas are important for initial post -larval and juvenile development of finfish and crustaceans. They are found in the uppermost reaches of the estuaries. Division of Marine Fisheries (DMF) marks these locations by posting signs at the downstream boundaries. 11. Animal and Plant Natural Areas of Special Significance This class of fragile area include important breeding animal locations (four sites), important animal and plant species locations (fourteen sites), potential natural areas (fourteen sites), and important community complexes (twelve sites). 12. Significant Historical, Archaeological, and Architectural Sites The County has hundreds of historical and archaeological sites where either Native Americans or early settlers left evidence of their existence. Based on information provided by the North Carolina Department of Archives and History, 25 have been designated as significant. These sites tend to be located along the streams and rivers of the County. Such areas of special significance can be nominated as "Areas of Environmental Concern" (AEC's) as described by the Coastal Area Management Act (CAMA). If the site is designated as an AEC, the Coastal Resources Commission will either adopt a management plan or use standards that apply to the site in order to preserve and protect the resource. The architectural resources of unincorporated New Hanover County plus Wrightsville, Carolina and Kure Beaches have been inventoried. Of those 197 structures which were examined, 143 have been judged to be historically and/or architecturally significant. These have been described and photographed in the publication "Historic Architecture of New Hanover County, North Carolina" (1986), which is available for purchase from the County Planning Department. Two structures, Mt. Lebanon Chapel and the Bradley -Latimer Summer Home, are listed on the National Register of Historic Places. The Masonboro Sound Historic District is still under consideration for National Register listing. B. State Classifications Due to the sensitive nature of the coastal region, the 1974 Coastal Areas Management Act y (CAMA) directed the Coastal Resources Commission to involve local governments in preparing • planning guidelines for each coastal county. The local governments are required to identify and 19 designate "Areas of Environmental Concern" (AEC's) in order to control development which might cause irreversible damage to property, public health and the natural environment. CAMA authorization is required to develop or build within these areas and specific guidelines apply to each category. There are four categories of AEC, as described below. These are the Estuarine System, Ocean Hazard System, Public Water Supplies, and Natural and Cultural Resource Areas. These are described in greater detail in "A Guide to Protecting Coastal Resources through the CAMA Permit Program" (1988) by the Division of Coastal Management. 1. Estuarine System The Estuarine System is a complex, highly productive biotic system that contributes enormous social economic, and biological values to North Carolina. Any project in the Coastal Wetland, Estuarine Waters or Public Trust Areas that requires a CAMA permit must meet certain standards, as officially stated in Title 15, Subchapter 7H, Section .0208 of the N.C. Administrative Code. a. Coastal Wetlands - These wetlands include any marsh subject to regular or occasional tidal flooding. They have tremendous value in contributing vegetative material to the foodchain, filtering pollutants, trapping sediment, providing nursery areas to some marine life and serve to reduce flooding and shoreline erosion. b. Estuarine Waters - These are the sounds and creeks that serve as the bonding element of the entire estuarine system, supporting finfish and shellfish populations. These waters transport nutrients and plankton, control salinity and cleanse the estuarine system of pollutants. The Estuarine Waters also support boating, swimming, hunting, fishing and other human activities. c. Public Trust Areas - These include waters of the Atlantic Ocean under State Jurisdiction and the lands under the ocean and estuarine waters. These areas hold valuable resources and are rightly open to the public for recreation, navigation, and other activities. d. Estuarine Shorelines - Estuarine shorelines include the area 75 feet landward of estuarine waters. This area is important because of its vulnerability to flooding and erosion, and the impacts of shoreline development activities on the estuarine system. Development within this 75 foot area is restricted such that impervious surfaces are limited to less than 30 percent of the lot area. In areas that lie adjacent to ORW's, development activities are restricted within 575 feet of the water. 2. Ocean Hazard System These areas are described in detail in the section below titled HAZARD AREAS. 3. Public Water Supplies Small surface water supply watersheds are specifically designated for possible use as public water supplies. Toomer's Creek, as previously discussed, has been classified as WSIII by the Division of Environmental Management for this purpose. 4. Natural and Cultural Resource Areas isTheNatural and Cultural Resource Areas include complex natural areas, areas that sustain remnant species, unique geologic formations, and significant historic architectural structures. These 20 AEC's are important to the entire state because of their role in maintaining the coastal ecosystem, value for scientific research and education, historic significance and/ or aesthetic value. is C. Federal Classifications According to the "Federal manual for Identifying and Delineating Jurisdictional Wetlands" (1988), an interagency cooperative publication, wetlands can be characterized by three parameters. These are hydrophytic vegetation, hydric soils, and wetland hydrology. This 1988 manual is presently undergoing review at this time. To date, wetland areas that meet these criteria are protected by Section 404 of the Clean Water Act. This Act regulates the filling or dredging of U.S. waters such as open water areas, mud flats, vegetated shallows and other aquatic habitats. Currently, the Army Corps of Engineers is reviewing regulations that allow wetlands under a certain acreage to be filled. Anything less than one acre does not require a permit from the federal government for filling purposes. Under new rules this would be limited to one-third of an acre. Developers who wish to fill parcels of land of ten acres are required to obtain permission from the Corps of Engineers. This may also change and then developers will have to notify the Corps on anything over three acres. In New Hanover County, environments protected by Section 404 would include salt, brackish and fresh tidal marshes, pocosins, ponds and swamp forests. These areas can sometimes be developed within certain federal restrictions, or as allowed by County or state regulations. In addition to the three classification schemes described above (e.g. County, State and Federal), the Soil Conservation Service delineates wetlands on agricultural land in assessing farmer eligibility for • agricultural benefit programs, in accordance with the "Swampbuster" provision of the 1985 Food Security Act. The 1996 farm bill has undergone a number of policy changes to existing Swampbuster provisions. This will allow farmers to comply with wetland conservation requirements with more flexibility while continuing to protect natural resources. III. HAZARD AREAS Hazard areas are defined as those locations in the county where development should be controlled due to the existence of natural or man-made dangers to human safety. Hazard areas in the county include the Ocean Hazard System, consisting of Ocean Erodible, High Hazard Flood (including estuarine "V" zones) and Inlet Hazard Areas of Environmental concern (AEC's), Foodplains, New Hanover County Airport, Industrial Hazards and areas directly impacted by Sea Level Rise. A. Ocean Hazard System The ocean hazard system includes those lands along the oceanfront and inlets that are vulnerable to storms, flooding and erosion. These hazard areas are defined and regulated by the State through the Coastal Area Management Act (CAMA). CAMA standards for development within or adjacent to these areas are designed to minimize loss of life and property due to storms and reduce damage to the natural environment. 21 • 1. Ocean Erodible Areas This includes the area between mean ocean low water and a distance landward from the first line of vegetation equal to 60 times the natural erosion rate, plus the distance equal to the erosion caused by a 100 year storm. This width varies for different sections of the oceanfront, ranging between about 145 feet to over 700 feet. Within this area, development is regulated. 2. High hazard Flood Areas These areas include lands subject to flooding, wave action, and high velocity water currents caused by a major storm. Any "V-zone" (defined in the section below titled "Floodplains") located within an oceanfront community as well as any estuarine V zone" is included in this area. This includes "V zones" on flood insurance maps, prepared for oceanfront communities by the Federal Insurance Administration. 3. Inlet Hazard Areas These areas are delineated on an individual basis depending on an analysis of the stability and migration rate for the inlets. The individual inlet hazard areas range in width from about 250 feet for more stable inlets to about 4,000 feet for the most dynamic inlets. B. Floodplains New Hanover County's flooding problems are almost completely due to hurricane induced storm surges. In 1978, the County adopted a Floodplain Ordinance regulating development, construction and use within all areas of special flood hazard. The Ordinance has been amended several times since its adoption. The County's floodplain maps have also been revised, with the major change being the reclassification of areas along the sounds from V to A zones. Floodplains in the County can be generally grouped into the following classes: V Zone - The V zone is the most hazardous zone. It is defined as those areas which would be flooded by a 100 year storm and would be subject to battering and erosive wave action. A Zone - The A zone encompasses those areas which would be flooded by a 100 year storm but would not be subject to wave action. B Zone - The B zone encompasses those areas between the limits of the 100-year flood and 500-year flood. In 1990, the County established a Floodplain Management Plan to further establish alternative measures to prevent flooding damages. The County's participation in the Community Rating system, as established by the Federal Emergency Management Agency, has resulted in a number of regulatory, public outreach and other measures. 22 C. International Airport The Coun 's airport • ty rp poses a possible threat to development through the potential for airplane crashes mainly within designated flight zones. Development, in turn, poses a threat to air traffic both by the intrusion of towers or other tall structures into the flight zones; by the need to minimize excessive airplane engine noise during landing and taking off over developed areas, which may impact the safe operation of airplanes; and by the use of lighting or signals that could interfere with airplane navigation. The County, therefore, has created Airport Residential and Industrial Districts. Both districts restrict the density and height of development and restrict the use of pulsating lights or similar devices interfering with navigation. The erection of tall structures must also comply with Federal Aviation Agency regulation. The City has an Airport Industrial District within its Zoning Ordinance. The County has also adopted a separate Airport Height Ordinance. A small private airfield associated with a residential subdivision has been constructed in the southern part of the county between U.S. Highway 421 and River Road. The county has not adopted regulations specifically controlling airparks or uses surrounding this or other potential commercial or private airstrips. D. Industrial Hazards Industrial hazard areas generally result from the presence of volatile, reactive or toxic chemicals (i.e. hazardous materials) in quantities sufficient to pose fire or health hazards to residences in the event of a fire, spill or release. These hazard areas tend to be concentrated along the Cape fear and Northeast • Cape Fear Rivers, as indicated by the existing land use study. Most major industries have developed plans and procedures in case of emergency. The transportation of volatile or toxic chemicals can also pose hazards to residences. Major highways and rail lines serve as the primary conduits for these hazards. These highways include U.S. 74-76, U.S. 421 north of Wilmington, I-40, U.S. 17 and 117, and NC 133. The rail line looping through the city of Wilmington also poses a potential risk. In addition, the state port along the Cape Fear River frequently handles and temporarily stores materials which could pose a health hazard to County residents in the event of an accident. The New Hanover County Department of Emergency Management is the lead agency for the County in support of hazardous materials inventory and Emergency Response Planning in conjunction with the Superfund Amendments and Reauthorization Act (SARA) Title ii of 1984. At present, the department has recorded approximately 23 billion pounds of chemicals at 161 business and industrial sites. Figure 7 shows the location of the larger industrial sites where some type or amount of hazardous material is located. The Hazardous material Emergency Response Plan, which is regularly updated, serves as a reference for activating response teams and procedures in case of a disaster. The department of Emergency Management also coordinates the activity of the New Hanover County Hazardous materials and Emergency planning committee, as required by the SARA legislation. The National Fire Protection Association (NFPA) has established a system of identification of the fire hazards of materials which may present a danger to life and health of individuals exposed to or handling the material under conditions of fire, spill or similar emergency. The system applies to industrial sites, businesses or institutions that manufacture, process, use, or store bulk amounts of • hazardous materials. 23 • • TO CLIMMN TO WI=VT= 3, Wilmington N Approximate Scale 1' . 3 Niles TO tURCAW • �1 NEW HANOVER COUNTY \ TO JACxSOxVIIS.E . \g 8~C� P� ' 0G� YAA7N mur WRIGFMVILIE BEACH i/ASONIOIO /N1AJ' '6 ° I CAJtouNA REACH /N/ir r CAROUNA BEACH FIGURE 7 INDUSTRIAL SITES II=Z BEACH Industrial Site containing some type or amount of hazardous material oa 0 NEW /NZAT --- The NFPA system identifies the hazards of materials on colorful, diamond -shaped signs which • are posted on the exterior of buildings and within view of approaching emergency personnel. The hazards are displayed in terms of 4 categories: health -located on the left, with a blue background; flammability -located at the top and center, on a red background; reactivity -located on the right, on a yellow background; and, special hazard -located on the bottom and center, on a white background. The NFPA system also indicates the degree of severity by a numerical rating that ranges from four (4) indicating severe hazard, to zero (0) indicating no hazard. Presently, nearly any industrially -zoned area in the County could pose a potential threat depending on the use and association of materials on site. The County, however, attempts to buffer these areas from high density residential areas through transitional zoning of commercial, light industrial and low density residential uses. Wilmington attempts to provide transitional zoning designations of light industrial or commercial zoned areas. It is important to note that there are also a number of industrial sites across the Cape Fear River and in adjoining counties which utilize hazardous materials and could, in an emergency, pose a potential threat to residents of New Hanover County. E. Sea Level Rise A wide range of potential sea level rise projections have been developed by many respected authorities. Sea level rise may range from 11 to 50 inches by the year 2050, and 30 to 144 inches by the year 2100 (Hoffman et al 1983), but will most likely be in the mid range of these estimates. An EPA report, "The Probability of Sea Level Rise, " estimates that there is a 50% chance that the sea level will rise at least 1 foot by 2050 and 2 feet by 2100. • Potential impacts from sea level rise are numerous and diverse. They include inundation of developable land, increased flooding impacts, increased shoreline erosion, loss of wetlands, and saltwater intrusion into fresh groundwater. The impacts would be significant in the County because much of the County's barrier island and estuarine shorelines are less than 15 feet above sea level. The range of measures that a local government can take to mitigate sea level rise impacts can be broadly classified as whether the measure attempt to halt the approach of the sea, i.e. "no retreat", or allows the sea to rise and avoid the impacts, i.e. "retreat". "No retreat" measures include construction of levees, sea walls and revetments to protect the shoreline, development of groin and breakwaters to reduce wave energy and trap sand, and other shoreline stabilization measures. "Retreat" measures include such regulations as increased set back distances and building elevations for new construction, policies for purchase of low lands, restriction on reconstruction of damaged structures after severe hurricane damage, and other planning -oriented measures. IV. SOILS The suitability of soils for septic systems historically has been a major factor in determining the density of development in New Hanover County. The construction of a county -wide sewer system will eliminate soil suitability for septic systems as a major constraint to development. Although certain highly organic soils may pose construction difficulties, these can generally be overcome through certain • engineering and land modification practices. Detailed information on County soils may be obtained 25 from a previous Technical Report, prepared as part of the 1981 Land Use Plan Update, called "Classification of Soils in New Hanover County for Septic Tank Suitability". This report, along with 1"=400' transparency maps, classifies all soil types with regard to septic system suitability as being either suitable, suitable with moderate limitations, severely limited, or unsuitable. Generally, the more unsuitable soils tend to be found in the flat, wet parts of the County along drainage ways. Additional information on soil types can also be found in the U.S. Soil Conservation Service report, "Soil Survey of New Hanover County, North Carolina", which discusses soil productivity, permeability, and other factors. V. AIR QUALITY The Division of Air Quality monitors compliance with National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) in New Hanover County. New Hanover is part of a seven county region which includes Brunswick, Carteret, Columbus, Duplin, Onslow, and Pender Counties. The EPA has established primary and secondary Ambient Air Quality Standards for six criteria air pollutants: total suspended particulate matter (TSP) and particulate matter less than ten micrometers (PM-10), carbon monoxide, ozone, sulfur dioxide, nitrogen dioxide and lead. The Federal Clean Air Act of 1990 states that the primary AAQS must "protect the public health with an adequate margin of safety", and the secondary standards must "protect the public welfare from, known or anticipated adverse effects (aesthetics, crops, architecture, etc.) The primary standards were established, with a margin of safety, considering long term exposures for the most sensitive groups in the general population (i.e., children, senior citizens, people with breathing difficulties). The state of North Carolina has also adopted these standards, with some minor differences. s The DEHNR Division of Environmental Management operated one air monitoring system within the region during 1993. This station, located at the corner of Orange and Ninth Streets in the City of Wilmington, measured particulate matter less than 10 microns in diameter (PM-10). Such particulates are respirable. In 1993, the most recent year data are available, the measured PM-10 arithmetic mean concentration was 48 µg/m3. These measurements are well within the federal and state standards. In accordance with the Federal 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments, all areas within the state are designated as attainment or non -attainment with respect to the AAQS. Areas that meet the AAQS are designated as attainment. New Hanover County has been designated as an attainment area for all six criteria pollutants. By comparison with other metropolitan areas in the state, New Hanover's air quality is considered excellent as none of the counties within the region have exceeded any ambient air quality standards. According to the Toxic Air Emissions Inventory, 1993, New Hanover County ranks fourteenth in the state with 4.9 million pounds of Total Air Pollutants (TAPS) and Hazardous Air Pollutants (HAPS) combined. Brunswick County is third. These values are generated from emissions reports which are subject to change. The inventory include all 189 of the HAPS as specified by the EPA. The most abundant chemicals in New Hanover County in decreasing order are as follows: Hydrochloric acid, methanol, acetic acid, p-xylene, ammonium, toluene, chlorine, N-hexene, formaldehyde, and hydrofluoric acid. Largest emitters in decreasing abundance for 1993 were: Hoechst Celanese, CP&L, Corning, International Paper, Arcadian fertilizer, Paktank, General Electric, B.F. Goodwrench, Takeda Chemical, Koch Refining, and Occidental. • 26 According to the EPA, there will be more stringent standards on the nation's air quality by next -' year. New Hanover County is identified as a county that meets current standards, but would not meet the proposed new standards for ozone limits. It should be noted that in terms of air pollution, New Hanover County has a natural advantage over inland areas. Due to the differential cooling and heating rates of land and water, sea breezes blow air offshore in the evenings and onshore during the day. According to the state's Air Quality Division, this sea breeze effect provides ample air movement to limit accumulation of airborne toxic chemicals. VI. RESOURCE POTENTIAL AREAS Resource potential areas refer to lands, other than those previously discussed, that are of value to the County in terms of their natural characteristics. They include prime farmland, forestland, mineral sites, and publicly owned land to be used for low intensive outdoor recreation. A. Prime Farmland Prime farmland, as specified by the Governor's Executive Order No. 96, includes land that has the best combination of physical and chemical characteristics and is available for producing food, feed, forage, fiber, and oil seed crops. These characteristics include the presence of proper climate, soil, and water table conditions for a specified portion of the growing season. These conditions are described in greater detail in U.S. Department of Agriculture Regulations (DR9500-3). In New Hanover County, Craven, Norfolk, Onslow, and Wrightsboro soil types can meet these conditions. Prime farmland is that which consists of at least one of these soil types, is ten acres or greater in size and is undeveloped. Additional farmland areas sustain farming ventures but do not fall into these particular soil types and are therefore not considered prime farmland. Figure 8 shows the location of the larger tracts of the county's farmland. These areas are mapped based on input from the Soil Conservation Service and Agriculture Cooperative Extension Service, soil maps and 1990 aerial photographs. Note that most of the prime farmland is located in the Castle Hayne area and the northwest part of the County. Additional farmland is located as small tracts distributed across the county. Individually owned agricultural land consisting of at least ten contiguous acres, in actual production, and having produced an average gross agricultural income of at least $1,000.00 for the past 3 years may qualify for "present use value" for property tax purposes. The property must be in production under a sound management program, as designed by the Agriculture Cooperative Extension Service and available to the public. In the northeast corner of the County, several tracts of Kenansville soil are excellent for the production of peanuts and sweet potatoes and will probably be used for this purpose until ongoing development absorbs these lands. New Hanover County has a few areas of "unique" farmlands devoted to the production of blueberries, a high value crop. The soils where blueberries are grown support wetlands in their natural state. Unless present rules are modified, no more areas can be cleared for blueberry production because the wetlands are protected from destruction. 27 • TO CLWrON • • To wHrnCV1L1.r Wilmington Approximate Scale V a 3 Mies �O �Q CAROUNA REACH JNL9r CAROUNA SUCH NZI :b KMZ IXACH NEW 1NLPr MASON 1NLZr W WRIGR73VILLE REACH ,"GMVIL MASONSONO JNLZr SUITABLE PRIME FARM LAND AND ADDITIONAL FARMLAND AREAS Prime Farmland Additional Farmland Areas ~' According to the soil Conservation Service's 1987-88 "Annual Strategy Plan", New Hanover county had approximately 6,320 acres of cropland. Currently, approximately 5,000 acres of cropland • remain in the county. The 1990 "Summary of Income Estimates" by the Agriculture Cooperative Extension Service, reports that approximately $7.6 million was derived from farming and forestry ventures in the County. Of this $7.6 million, food crops made up 41%, ornamental trees and shrubs, greenhouse crops and outdoor flowers made up 30%, and forestry made up 28% of this total. Crops grown in the County include corn, wheat, soybeans, oats, hay, tobacco, peas, sweet potatoes, leafy greens, tomatoes, blueberries, strawberries, peaches, grapes and pecans. B. Forestry Resources According to the U.S. Forest Services' "Forest Statistics for the Southern Coastal Plain of North Carolina (1990)", 49,329 acres of the County's total 118,106 acres are considered timberland. In 1973, the Forest Service documented that the County had 60,312 acres of timberland; thus, the County lost 18% of its timberland during those 17 years. The Forest Service defines timberland as "land at least 16.7 percent stocked by forest trees of any size, or formerly having had such tree cover, not currently developed for nonforest use, capable of producing 20 cubic feet of industrial wood per acre per year and not withdrawn from timber utilization by legislative action" Of the 49,329 timberland acres: 29,075 are owned by individuals; 9,692 by corporations, 3,509 by forest industry; 3,231 by farmers; and 3,822 total by county/municipal, state and federal governments. Individually -owned forestland consisting of at least 20 contiguous acres, in actual production and not part of a farm unit, may qualify for "present use value" for property -tax purposes. The property must be commercially growing trees under a sound management program, as designed by the Forest Service. • This service is available to the public and can be obtained by contacting the Division of Forest Resources. The most abundant forest types are in order of descending abundance; oak -gum cypress, loblolly-short leaf pine, oak -pine, longleaf -slash pine and oak -hickory. Figure 9 shows the location of the larger tracts of forest land in the county, utilizing a minimum cutoff of approximately 100 acres. The areas are mapped from 1990 aerial photographs and have not been field checked. It is important to note that this map does not necessarily include all timberland in the County, nor does it infer that these tracts would all necessarily be defined as timberland by the Forest Service. C. Mineral Resource Sites The County's major mineral resource sites are along the Northeast Cape Fear River. These limestone deposits support several major cement and crushed stone manufacturing firms. In addition, several small borrow pits are located around the County for mining sand. D. Public Land Public low -intensity, recreational -use lands in the County include several large County and City Parks as indicated in Figure 10. Hugh MacRae Park, including an adjoining tract of County property across College Road, is probably the most utilized park facility in the City and County. As recommended by the County's "Master Plan for Parks and Recreation" (1988), the county is currently increasing park acreage through the purchase of additional land. Funds have been made 0 29 • available by the 1989 Bond Referendum and the money is allocated for purchase and development of recreation properties. To date, four properties have been acquired for use as both passive and active recreation. Development of these facilities is underway. Three additional properties have been acquired through donations. In September 1990, Snow's Cut Park was expanded to include additional parking, picnic shelters and a gazebo. State facilities and land also include Carolina Beach State Park, Ft. Fisher, the Marine Resources Center, and the undeveloped lands surrounding these facilities in Federal Point. In addition, the existence of a buffer area for the Sunny Point Military Terminal also limits intense development in the Federal Point area. Masonboro Island and Zeke's Island, perhaps the two most significant low intensive public lands available to the county, are managed as part of the North Carolina National Estuarine Research Reserve Program. These sites have been dedicated as nature preserves through the state's Natural Heritage Program. Both islands provide research and educational opportunities, in addition to low - intensity recreational uses. 31 TO CLLNMm -1 TO V4ffr = Wilmington J� Approximate Scale 1' - 3 Miles I Q �v Q CAROUNA REACH DUET CAROLINA BEACH NEW HANOVER COUNTY TO ]ACXSOxvmLt • µltIGFM%7LLL BEACH NASONRORO INW FOREST RESOURCES 151 Forest Areas L Existing Land Use Technical Reports -------------------------- EXISTING LAND USE In New Hanover County, Wilmington, Wrightsville, Kure and Carolina Beach A Technical Report for the County and City Comprehensive Plan October 1997 Prepared by the New Hanover County Planning Department 414 Chestnut Street, Suite 304, Wilmington, NC 28401 (910) 341-7165 City of Wilmington Planning Division is 202 N. 3rd Street, Wilmington, NC 28401 (910) 341-3258 0 Table of Contents I. INTRODUCTION II. COMPARABILITY OF LAND USE STATISTICS III. MAJOR FINDINGS A. Land Use By Parcel Size B. Summary of Land Use by Parcel Size IV. LAND UTILIZATION COMPARED TO OTHER AREAS V. LAND USE AREAS OF CONCERN IN THE UNINCORPORATED COUNTY A. Commercial Development B. Transportation C. Sewer Services and Land Development VI. LAND USE AREAS OF CONCERN IN THE CITY OF WILMINGTON A. Land Use Conflicts B. Transportation C. Redevelopment VII. APPENDICES Appendix One - Methodologies Appendix Two - PCS Land Use Codes List of Figures Appendix Three - Uninc. County & City of Wilmington Land Use by Parcel Size Appendix Four - Unicorporated County Land Use by Parcel Size Appendix Five - City of Wilmington Land Use By Parcel Size List of Figures Land Use Map of New Hanover County • 2 I. INTRODUCTION This document is the 1997 update to the 1991 "Existing Land Use in New Hanover County", one of the County's technical reports of the Coastal Area Management Act (CAMA) Land Use Plan. The purpose of this technical report is to describe and discuss the current inventory of land use in New Hanover County and compare this data to historical land use data. Data comparison is used to identify land use trends, shortcomings in service provision and other land use characteristics that will be instrumental in shaping the direction, type and rate of growth in New Hanover County. As part of the data collection process for this study, numerically -coded land use maps were prepared on current County and City property maps (1 "=500'). These are available for review and use within the respective Planning Departments. Land Use is presented by parcel size totals. Parcel size statistics for 1985, 1990 and 1997 are presented in tables to determine the most significant changes in land uses that have taken place in the previous 12 years. The methods used for collecting and calculating each set of data are described in detail in Appendix One. The Land Use Codes assigned to each parcel are given in Appendix Two. It is important to note that each of the summary tables presents a different set of data which may not be directly comparable to data shown in other tables or to data from previous land use studies. Briefly; Table 1 compares the total parcel acreage's per land use type for the combined area of the unincorporated County, the Beaches, and the City of Wilmington for Sept. 1997. Table 2 shows the percentage of the total parcel acreage by land use type for the unincorporated County, the City of Wilmington and the beaches for Sept. 1997. Table 3 shows the percent of the total amount of developed land that each land use category represents in the unincorporated County, the City of Wilmington and the beaches for Sept. 1997. Table 4 shows the average percentage of land use type in other areas throughout the country. Appendix Three compares land use by parcel size for Wilmington and the unincorporated County from 1985 to 1990. Appendix Four shows land use by parcel size for the unincorporated County for 1985 and 1990. Appendix Five contains land use figures for the City of Wilmington for 1985 and 1990. • 3 II. COMPARABILITY OF LAND USE STATISTICS It should be noted that several difficulties exist in collecting and computing land use information. These problems can reduce the accuracy and hence the comparability of the results from one year to the next. Some of the major difficulties that affect the results of a study such as this include: 1. Judgmental decisions in assigning the proper land use code (the land use categories used in this report are listed in Appendix Two). 2. Utilization of different data sources and methodologies for calculating statistics in 1997 as compared to 1985 and 1990. 3. Verification of whether or not a parcel is developed or undeveloped. For example, a two acre lot with one house may be considered to be fully developed even though the parcel may be subdivided into additional lots in the future. Or, a five acre lot with one single family home may be considered a single family lot or an undeveloped lot. Because of these types of problems, some fairly large differences are apparent when one compares datafrom 1985 and 1990 to data from the 1997 inventory. Some of these differences are obviously due to methodology and do not reflect trends in the County's land use while some of them are due to the fact that sophisticated computer equipment has made calculating land use totals more precise. The values given for Tables 1, 2 and 3 have been calculated using methods which were not used in 1985 and 1990, therefore these values are not directly comparable to the data from ?' these years. These methods are explained in Appendix One. Again, the same kinds of problems were encountered as mentioned above in collecting and calculating these data. III. MAJOR FINDINGS A. Land Use by Parcel Size Table 1 shows the land use acreage's for the combined area of the unincorporated County, the City of Wilmington, and the beach communities, using total parcel acreage's per land use category. Table 2 shows the percentage of each land use as part of total acres. Table 3 shows the percent of each land use category of the total amount of developed acres only. The values used in the appendix Tables 3, 4, and 5 were obtained from the County Tax Appraisal Office's Data Bank for 1990 and 1985, thus these data are generally not comparable. • Table 1. iandtbeTofalsbyPar elAaa 'in MewNaswerCou�y. _, � e -P § , p .�: `<;� - �.� 3!k�h� "' Piandtk0,09+gWVy ° � ,AkwM mwCouX M]O Naftito r. W0vol naBaxh..='�iMkft- lleBeachAKm Beach. 7af JR¢ s .,�aKa� a ass aereiaSal7n,xn...aa.::r :a a'i ,ax Residential Total 18854.065743.87 287.37 227.21 10229 25214.8 - ,16285640237_' .° 1244s -x=s 5 � _.. - MA Family 328.12 78243 1.3 216 0 1114.01 :012,: 168835 Office and tti oriel 4 ». ��- -�;. 758 r�,r.�21>12 �-,,,�.,,1�19�.N..��;i.-"58.29=�•,E'.`472t:a2�: 9 ..- e a r 1299 2277,1107�13 9�67W^»s7� �.27084 T l)h $ Carrrrxriicafions � , 4408 69 Recre�Son»� 263268 F ' 152264 5�45; '> 0 86 Q45 „.:41 , - tofai6'evet"'""'" .- .. 252086... 77 02 5522, .W. m�0... .v a; a' 02653 25 As mentioned in Section II in the discussion of the comparability of land use statistics, some of the major differences between the 1990 and 1985 statistics can probably be attributed to inconsistencies in assigning land use codes in the Tax Appraisal Office's Data Bank. It should be noted that these values reflect total land use by parcel size and do not indicate actual land utilization acreage's. Until recently, values contained in the Tax Appraisal Office's Data Bank were not consistently updated over time. Many of the discrepancies which occur in the Data Bank will be reconciled now that new technology such as the GIS, which can measure land features more. accurately and in less time, is being used. Surveyors frequently discover lots which have been recorded in deeds for hundreds of years that are much larger than stated in the deed. Improvements in the way this spatial data is stored and accessed also will aid in the classification of land use types and the compilation of utilization statistics or parcel size tabulations. It should be noted that in 1990 data by parcel size was not available for the City of Wilmington alone. Thus, the City of Wilmington acreage's included Wrightsville Beach (851 ac), Carolina Beach (1,075 ac), and Kure Beach (518 ac). However, because these values are quite small, and constitute less than 2,500 acres of the City's approximately 21,000 acres, they have only a minor affect on the overall totals and proportions per land use type for Wilmington. • 5 r • • Table 2. PawtdTcdL& U* FbrtV/�� bN3v m�aeO..y�� 2E 3E T., _ V;,wr� Z�:�bW. M �F ,�.,. `V� �l�di.x fir& x'�'"F�-:.aK "'f'„�'�'a"'LV+diti,c'o4 3 �i } �,✓""#tY%2't23"ti; Rmkbrdd Rd fl% Me 21% 7/9 2r/o W/o Mid PaTlly 0% 4% (r/o 01/o MO 1% �., Clflaeatdael�-»�11%� ,2% .7"/0 ` �°% ;."-•_,.,,�P7,77M 7r�a*^„""4_e°'"- F "377'S�. x „'.pc'^ q.�'^s y,-.^r,.,^,^.�„*...x OVER E .: T--Mtwes$iQ ltuiC2tlo�s_. 4°%».L... �<���W� y":•s 4 a..a p.'c �� y� .-J76� �,,k� �,� _ y� �' 1170x-4,...--t V/p'i t. 'S aT/O �" .�. �,1.b,$„yia `k:8 ».... _. ➢ ' ��; z^ •q.¢L/6i Sa' ? � Y/O '��„-..fi x1lO=>v r. e�._e .-: 0 ��a'•--` ...�.a.i,y„,_._r.,:,�, .yam., . --, a.,'.+�•r.+ rx�«r,''m. , n •z^^ +� � f+r � rr•-c -�,�.� ,. s^sr- --+r �--� ,:ems '°t` ,„'^^^,a.. .Vir.a.»1..:.'iAKw'«iz`.'i�az:.,:.fiw;....a�roFk.....Mi..::ar:.�t..s...w:F:....iii ... '- .• .. �`'. " .r, t„w=aaz.,,.,.+E'Nv -' i.Siai.ar.✓'iii.�. '`�"a:�8<i' .�3' "�"'"*:. %" TAW �y iN .gym �.n�. �p .✓� 1'yaF""° �;. -s', .,""= v S .�'°' r v "x` ..rater. _ r 1< •&..x.„„mz^,».. e: y d ,yyp yryy yyp ,yyp MO,m;rc- B. Summary of Land Use by Parcel Size Examination of the land use totals in Table 3 shows that residential land use constitutes the largest category of developed land for the combined area of the unincorporated County, the City of Wilmington and the beach communities. The residential land use category when compared to figures in Appendix Three, shows a decrease in total acreage from 1990 through 1997, while increases are recorded for all other land use categories with the exception of industrial. As mentioned before, although there are problems with using parcel size as an indicator of land use and with using the Tax Appraisal Data Bank, the overall proportions for each category are generally consistent with other land use data. The values in Tables 1 through 3 and Appendices 3 through 5 were obtained from the Tax Parcel Data Base for 1997, 1990 and 1985. It is important to note that these values reflect totals by parcel size for each specified area and may not accurately represent actual land utilization acres. 3 Table 3. TddL&di.*7 FkMWaftr�"!T'°"rv*^'+eJs�, P0 tcf LadeAbwM" `.�A'�"aW S'Ia. . ���_.,-�i�,��4+�►Y,�''.; �f '� 1!�wfErx�GbrsXy,� �,�V{�nv r�r!.. �roi�a� ��`;Wagh[sW/et�.edt�f4ie13eadr �'�-Tagil. �,t• a z .x a_A`} "3 $r * rr .,,k ,. " ��MMX w . F ,d`""'^ „'r's. *'s '_�, ,si9-*e<+' r'*e"y -t r * '-ems k# - a• PbddwtWTbTaW� 900/0 49% 0/0 �71% y L61% `�^�WL ';.1`'zx 3� .q�t .w,.,s+rm.,..>''sK 9.�°�3`"$�4a r�W� -'. e... r r�fil0 P V(°lQ �+Y e' a�; '`.3�:tb:.3 - y °x`'i. �d..Wi:::y.�.�:.:as.°a:,.a...i.�. .ia, ` MLhFbr 7 1% %% 0°/Q 1% 0% �2% !�.^.'•��t�+ � '!'x'+'+' ^.......a /gyp/"�7�p! "y'�"""'^.`." °x'F''y./�p/....its""ip".eA' �p - �f1.�14'4-'i- z�-�'�+4�« *� -i-� ^li'd ��--n5 'a•>ed> � :-J/a� .�`..y �> V/Oxk$� �^-�. a 4/O ,yRc. ., r,;. i V/a - a"Y�•�k�� .�.L,3 -�.'a'"'u5mi..�biar..wi.'w......r'.�x,�,' mds.7.w _^.. �,,.aaa...av7:re.r:w.�..>..i.•a.a:�+w.:w:�w.i�.:a3J..i'-.:.�,'..a.��:n.my'µaxsukao.�+.m.taiw�;�a.,...,w `�-,_ . 'art W LUZ (bmeraal s x 3 ' �,6 y z ''^'+bi'ffe.M ay.ror+^vm+.w�M+•mw,Y•sA4F �9"MM.rrSs 'fY�+•/fix-'+y�r.KF"" �jp[ .�'vC"� �a,�/!Q �..:...,���100° `�,,..��,� +,r-� �e ;� ,7f)0'%�"��' The decrease in the percentage of developed land that is attributed to residential land use is probably the result of differing measurement techniques used in the land use inventories. New Hanover County and each of the municipalities have seen significant growth in residential land use since 1990. The increase in the percentage of Office and Institutional, Commercial, Transportation, Communications and Utilities would logically follow the kind of unprecedented residential growth that has occurred in this area. •. A large percentage of the growth in residential land use has been in the form of golf course developments. The significant growth in the amount of recreational land from 1990 to 1997 reflects the development of several new golf courses during that period. Additionally, new parks have been added to try to meet the demands of the growing population. • IV. Land Utilization Compared to Other Areas In a study of land use ratios by Loghinin and Sutton (1983), land use was examined for 22 small cities and 46 large cities. Ratios per land use were calculated and compared. As seen in Table 4, the City of Wilmington is fairly consistent with the trends identified in the Longhini and Sutton study however the beach communities have a much higher percentage of residential development as would be expected. It should be pointed out however, that the methods used to generate the actual acreage's for each individual study are probably not the same, thus only general trends can be deduced from this comparison. Additionally, it is not appropriate to compare land use values for the unincorporated county to values presented in this study of Cities. Table 4. Wdmington and the8eathes.Campared to Athercwes._ _._..LmedUse,Cafagory a gton=Carolina;Beachx$WrightsvAleBeachKure.BeachSmallCitlestaige'taitTes . WdmJn "''�.,k v."<..�..._a=. �:tY '' �w:�«sz" ,�'',,x,., a8•,', «c e�w iJ:s� .ec..+#,r�:�w "' � i :�+w€isi � �w.sa�....ti«m�.a... Residential Total 49% 87% 71% 61% 48% 48% Office and Institutional .w 19% 6% 6% 35% 13% NIA ids%3'�.1#a$k�`$;�:.;iba.-`,v�o�" �:i«S.aa�s;.ii&.�"F,Cm��. �"�ix"....� `�w�.�'.-wj�wl +� ao- ae�5. .�s 3 ;i ,.":.� � a��="': � f -, a f .r�-z.•k. Commercial 9% 3% 9% 3% 7% 9% d u„t.,'..' eas^'l ,•''pax=^.s En-+5 "'Sti.` 3i" s+'.«z' .r '^"^°.`°4;E...a-wf`"'„re* �TC?n'ax*, Transportation Utilities & Communications 5% 1 % 7% 0% 19% N/A +r„LL 'n h +r-s<*»'.a�+s,2 -'€e %ipet-+^ r--�,x ;�-*•a -�-"-*'"'r;?,., g ,ro<,+.,rr Industrial 5% 1% 0% 0% 8% 12% N—snn'. a Recreation 13% 2% 7% a 0% 4% s NIA u V. Land Use Areas of Concern in the Unincorporated County The 1990's have been a period of unprecedented growth in New Hanover County and the surrounding counties. As the County has risen to become the regional service and trade center for southeastern North Carolina, some problems have evolved. For example, urban services need to be provided, land use conflicts have been created and must be solved, and traffic congestion has increased in some areas. The following land use issues are of particular concern: 1.) Commercial Development - It is obvious that a certain amount of commercial development is needed to service the local area. However, New Hanover County has developed into a regional retail center, providing shopping opportunities for people well beyond its geographic borders. As a result, growth in commercial development should continue as long as the regional population continues to swell. While the retail opportunities may be good for the local economy, they are not without problems. First, the push to provide commercial opportunities to satisfy regional 8 demand has meant that more vacant land has been rezoned. When that happens, land use conflicts occur, especially when located adjacent to residential uses. Second, ' commercial expansion is sometimes ill -planned, resulting in strip commercial development. In addition, over -development in some areas, has resulted in the creation of under-utilized commercial properties in traditional commercial corridors. Though these commecial centers may be unoccupied, they still are allotted services, reduce open space and potentially impact the environment. 2.) Transportation - The opening of Interstate 40 (I-40) was projected to be the impetus for rapid development of all types in the County. The interstate has had a major impact on some types of growth in the County. I-40 has provided convenient access into and out of the County, but construction of new companion roads to facilitate cross county travel has not kept pace. Two study areas, located just north of the City, have been selected for the location of the western link of the Smith Creek Parkway connecting I-40 and Eastwood Road to Downtown Wilmington and US 17. The first two sections of the Parkway linking Eastwood Road with I-40 and I-40 to N. Kerr Ave. have been completed while construction of the remainder is underway. Additionally, local officials continue to prioritize various road projects identified in the Wilmington Thoroughfare Plan. Several inner-city thoroughfares have already been constructed, such as Racine Drive, South 17th Street Extension, Randall Parkway, Holly Tree Road, and Independence Blvd. It is important to remember that new roads, particularly thoroughfares, will have a dramatic impact on land use patterns. The County and City should be prepared to identify specific needs and possible conflicts as these roads are constructed. If this foresight is achieved, long-term negative impacts can be minimized. 3.) Sewer Services and Land Development - As can be expected, development in the unincorporated County has been brisk where County sewer service has been installed. Areas once not fit for development because soil conditions would not support septic tanks have now been transformed into buildable lots. The County continues to pursue a County -wide sewer system, but funding shortfalls have delayed completion of some parts of the system. Alternative revenue sources are being sought, and decisions are being made on a piecemeal basis as to future expansion plans. If and when the needed funding is identified, the County must be prepared to insure that the availability of sewer services does not open up lands to development that would not ordinarily be considered suitable. For example, wetlands are still abundant in the County but many tracts, large and small, which contain these resources are rapidly being converted into buildable land through engineered drainage trenching. Additionally, 9 many of the County's estuarine watersheds may require buffers and density restrictions to protect water quality and in turn aid our fishing and tourism industries. Septic tanks cannot function in poorly -drained soils or wetland areas and although public sewer availability eases the sewerage concern, it subjects these wetland resources to development pressures. To the greatest extent practical, these wetlands should be protected. The County must demonstrate that it is committed to striking a palatable balance between development needs and the larger issue of environmental conservation and resource protection. VI. Land Use Areas of Concern in the City of Wilmington 1.) Land Use Conflicts - An issue of concern in the City of Wilmington is the conflict between land uses and the need for a balanced approach to the placement of land use activities. The Zoning Ordinance of the City of Wilmington was designated to minimize the conflicts between land use activities through the provision of setback requirements and more recently, revised landscaping standards and sign regulations. There has been a concerted effort to balance the need for residential, office & institutional, commercial and industrially classified properties, and to weigh the impacts of these activities in placement decisions. In the instance of commercial development, there has been an effort to provide services at neighborhood, community and regional levels, and to properly place zoning classifications to achieve that goal. The 1993 Wilmington -New Hanover County Policies for Growth and Development recommends against allowing commercial strip development along major thoroughfares. The pressure to continue the commercialization of these thoroughfares is very strong, however, and will continue to be a prevalent issue. The City of Wilmington has recognized the need for thoroughfare planning through an emphasis on corridor -wide planning efforts. The completion of the Dawson -Wooster Corridor Plan, the Wrightsville Avenue Land Use Plan, the Carolina Beach Road Corridor Study and the North Kerr Avenue Land Use Study, are all examples of the City's efforts to provide a blueprint for the development of these corridors, and to provide a comprehensive planning approach to land use evaluation, rather than incremental changes in zoning. There has been a greater recognition of the impacts of commercialization, including increased traffic and reduced effectiveness of thoroughfares to handle existing traffic loads. There has also been an increased awareness of the need to protect areas of affordable housing which are in transition in neighborhoods adjacent to commercial activity. The City of Wilmington has recently engaged in the process of developing a City Master Plan, which will provide further direction in the placement of land uses in a manner that • will minimize the negative impacts of conflicting land uses. This plan is currently in the draft phase and will be reviewed by the Planning Commission and the City Council prior 10 to adoption. The City Master Plan is designed to provide a framework for the development of the City of Wilmington into the next century. S`=' 2.) Transportation - The City of Wilmington has engaged in an aggressive plan to build new thoroughfares within the city limits. The newly constructed streets include the South Seventeenth Street Extension, Independence Boulevard Extension, Holly Tree Road Extension and Randall Parkway. Other roads, including George Anderson Drive, are in the final planning stages for completion. There has been an awareness of the need to protect these new thoroughfares from strip development as a means of enhancing their function; to safely and effectively handle traffic loads to the newly developing areas of the city. The South Seventeenth Street Extension Land Use Plan has provided the blueprint for development within that area, and other similar studies will be needed to provide a framework for development of these newly accessible areas within the city limits. The construction of the Smith Creek Parkway has gained new urgency with the opening of I-40 and the increased traffic impacts on the Market Street corridor. The City of Wilmington will continue to push for the development of this parkway as a means of alleviating traffic congestion and providing greater access to the redeveloping inner city area. 3.) Redevelopment of the Inner City Area - Within the past five years, the City of Wilmington, in partnership with private residential and commercial property owners, and •' the Historic Wilmington Foundation and DARE, Inc., has had great success in the redevelopment of the historic core of the inner city. The preservation and reuse of significant portions of the downtown have been accomplished through this effort. New Hanover County has also contributed to the stabilization of the downtown through the revitalization of the historic New Hanover County Courthouse for administrative and meeting space. However, continued effort is needed in the residential neighborhoods within the National Register Historic District, including Hemenway and the Bottom, and the North Fourth Street and Castle Street commercial areas. The Department of Housing and Neighborhoods, in conjunction with Wilmington Housing Finance and Development, are continuing their efforts to provide affordable, rehabilitated housing within these neighborhoods, as well as redevelopment of the historic commercial corridors on North Fourth Street and Castle Street. The Historic Wilmington Foundation and DARE, Inc. will continue to play key roles in the respective residential and commercial rehabilitation efforts. 11 • • APPENDIX 1 METHODOLOGIES 1. Methodology for calculating 1997 statistics for Unincorporated New Hanover County, the City of Wilmington, Wrightsville, Kure and Carolina Beach The introduction of the Geographic Information System (GIS) to tracking land use has led to many improvements in the way land use statistics were calculated. For this inventory each tax parcel in New Hanover County was assigned a land value by the tax appraisal office. These values were converted to land use codes which are on the following appendix. Interns were used to verify each of the land use codes by going out and visually checking on the land use of each parcel. Orthophotography, which also is available on the GIS, served as an additional verification method for buildings which existed prior to march, 1994, the date of the arial photography. The GIS allowed us to relate the tax parcel file with the land use file and thus produce statistics for each land use category by parcel ID. Because this data can be geo-referenced, data was easily separated in to the different geographic areas of the county. 12 APPENDIX 2 LAND USE CODES Old Code IDescription New Code Residential 1 1 Family Residential 10 2 2 Family Residential 11 3 3 or more Family Residential 12 10 Mobile Home 13 14 Mobile Home Park 14 Single Family Attached (condo) 15 Vacant/Dilapidated 16 4 Season Res. 1 Family 21 5 Season Res. 2 + Family 22 19 Other Residential 99 Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Mining 81 Agriculture 101 82 Agricultural Related 107 83 Forestry & Related 108 84 Fishery 109 84 Sport Fishing 110 84 Commercial Fishing 111 84 Other Fishing and Related 112 85 Mining & Related 121 89 Other Resources 149 Manufacturing 21 Food & Kindred 201 22 Textile Mill 221 23 Apparel & Similar 231 24 Lumber & Wood 241 25 Furniture & Fixtures 251 26 Paper & Allied 261 27 Printing & Publishing 271 28 Chemical & Allied 281 29 Petroleum, Refining & Related 291 • • 13 • U • 31 Rubber & Plastics 301 32 Stone, Clay & Glass 321 33 Primary Metal 331 34 Fabricated Metal 341 36 Boat & Ship Construction 373 35 Prof. & Scientific Instrumentation 381 39 Misc. Manufacturing 399 Transportation, Communication and Utilities 41 Rail Transit 401 42 Motor Vehicles - Transit 411 45 Street R.O.W. 412 Trucking 421 Warehousing/Self-Storage 422 44 Water Trans. (Freight) 441 Water Trans. (Passenger) 448 55 Marina -Marine Craft Docking 449 43 Aircraft 458 47 Radio/Phone/TV Comm. 481 48 Utilities 491 49 Other T, C & U 499 Trade 51 Wholesale 501 55 Aircraft & Accessories, Other 508 Paper and paper products 511 52 Retail -Bldg. Materials, 521 Hdwr. & Farm 53 Retail Gen. Merchandise 531 54 Groceries -Retail Convenience 541 54 Fish and Seafoods -Retail 542 Candies, nuts, confectioneries 544 54 Other Retail Trade -Food 549 55 Retail Auto 551 55 Tires, Batteries, and 553 Accessories - Retail 55 Gasoline Service Stations 554 55 Marine Craft and 555 Accessories - Retail 56 Retail Apparel & Accessories 561 57 Home Furnishings -Retail 571 58 Eating Place -Consumption 581 14 on premise, prepared foods 58 Drinking Place (Alcoholic 582 Beverages) 58 Fast Food Drive -In -Retail estab 583 for immediate consumption 59 Other Retail 599 Services 61 Finance/Banks 601 Trust Company 604 Real Estate 651 66 Construction Contracting 655 13 Residential Hotel 701 15 Transient Lodging 702 75, 6 Travel Trailer Park, Resorts and Camps 703 Bed and Breakfast 704 62 Personal 721 63 Business 731 Computer Services 738 46 Auto Parking 752 64 Repair (non -auto) 761 Auto Repair and Service 762 Motion Picture Production 781 Movie Theater 783 Video Rental 784 72 Public Assembly 792 76 Parks 796 73 Recreational (public/non-park) 797 74 Recreational (private) 798 79 Other C E & R 799 65 Physician 801 Dental Service 802 65 Other Medical and Health 804 65 Nursing, Convalescent, and 805 rest home services 65 Hospital Services 806 65 Medical and Dental Lab. Services 807 65 Legal Services 811 68 Educational 821 12 Group Quarters (residential care 836 facility) 71 Cultural or Nature Exhibition 841 69 Religious Activities (Churches) 866 69 Religious Activities (schools) 867 15 • • 69 Other Services 899 67 Governmental 911 Court of Law 921 Land and Water areas 99 Marshes 951 93 Water Areas 952 92 Non Commercial Forest 953 Landfill 955 95 Under Construction 956 94 Vacant Floors 957 91 Unused Land 958 991Other Undeveloped Land 959 Condo Common Area 961 16 Appendix 3 New Hanover County - Land Use By Parcel Size • 1985 1990 Parcel Percent of parcel Percent of Land Use Category Acres Developed Acres Developed Area Area Residential Total:. 33,480 , . 57.1 % ` 35,'132 65.1Yc Single Family 30,081 51.3% 3,303 6.1% Multi -Family. 1,451 . :. 2.5% 492 0:9% Mobile Home 1,948 3.3% 1,337 2.5% Office & Institutional 5,127 8:7% 3;983: 7.4% ,. Commercial 4,458 7.6% 1,733 3.2% Transportation, Utilities & Communiticaiton 4,694 8.0% 4,370 8.1 % _. Industrial 8,529 14.5% 7,689 14 2% • Recreation 2,351 4.0% 1;086. 2`.0% Total Developed 58,639 100.0% 53,993 100.0% .Undeveloped,. 57,413 N/A 75,566 N/A. Water 19,493 N/A 19,493 N/A Total Combined.Acres 135,545 N/A .149;052 N/A Note: figures include Wilmington, the Beaches and the Unincorporated County Source: New Hanover County Land Records • 17 Appendix 4 Unincorporated County - Land Use By Parcel Size 1985 1990 Percent of Percent of Land Use Category Parcel Developed Parcel Developed Acres Acres Area Area Residential Total. . 28,009 62.4% 22175 612% .. Single Family 25,597 57.0% 20,858 57.5% Multi- Family 464 1.0% 28 0.10 Mobile Home 1,948 4.3% 1,289 3.6% Office & Institutional 3,710 8.30/c 1,896 5 2% Commercial 3,263 7.3% 938 2.6% Transportation,, Utilities &2,003 Communiticaiton 4:5% 3880 10:70/co Industrial 7,265 16.2% 6,827 18.8% Recreation .. .. 660 1:5% 537 - 1.50 Total Developed 44,910 100.0% 36,253 100.0% Undeveloped 51,221 N/A 71,940 N/A: Water 18,982 N/A 18,982 N/A Total Combined Acres 135,545 N/A 127,175 NIA," • Note: figures include the Unincorporated County only. Source: New Hanover County Land Records 18 Appendix 5 Wilmington and the Beaches - Land Use By Parcel Size`+ 1985 1990 Parcel Percent of Parcel Percent of Land Use Category Acres Developed Acres Developed Area Area Residential Total: 5,471 39 8% : 121957 710W Single Family 4,484 32.7% 12,445 70.1 % Multi -Family 987 7.2% 464 2.6% Mobile Home 2 0.0% 48 0.3% Office & Institutional 1;417 .10.3% 2,087 11.80/c Commercial 1,195 8.7% 795 4.5% Transportation, Utilities & Communiticaiton . 2,691 19.6% 490 2.8% Industrial 1,264 9.2% 862 4.9% Recreation;,:1,691 12.3% 549 3.1 % .. Total Developed 13,729 100.0% 17,743 100.0% Undeveloped.,,,,.., - 6,192 _ . N/A 3,626 N/A Water 511 N/A 511 N/A Total Combined Acres 20,432 N/A 21;880 N/A Note: figures include Wilmington, Wrightsville, Carolina and Kure Beaches Source: New Hanover County Land Records 0,; 19 MOVIE, "wTM -is giver k-,..ouni 0--Anm-s Art"" I "No rwAr 1117NA I. Generalized Land Map Wilmington — New Hanover Comprehenisive Planning Program CAMA 1998 Land Use Plan Update • • -I W "0 0 0 m • General Information Wilmington New Hanover County Comprehensive Plan Meeting the Transportation Challenge: Transporation Planning in the Wilmington Urban Area General Information for the City and County Comprehensive Plan 1997-2010 March 1998 Prepared by the City of Wilmington, Planning Division, Transportation Planning Unit 202 N. 3rd Street, 4 h Floor, Wilmington, NC 28401 (910) 341-3258 New Hanover County, Planning Department 414 Chestnut Street, Suite 304, Wilmington, NC 28401 (910) 341-7165 The Transportation Challenge National Trends 1976 1995 Difference % Chance US Population 214,659,000 262,755,270 +48,096,270 +22% Total Vehicle 1,409,163 2,422,775 + 1,013,612 +72% Miles Traveled (millions) Total Miles Fed. 3,857,356 3,926,724 + 69,368 +1.7% Aid and Non -Fed. Aid Highways . The Local Impact In summarizing the data collected for the City of Wilmington 1996 Traffic Count Program, data from 1990 and 1996 were compared for approximately 200 count locations. In 1990 these locations had 2,035,921 vehicle trips counted as part of the regular count program. In 1996 these locations had 2,451,494 vehicle trips counted during comparable time periods. This represents a 20% increase in traffic in six nears or about 3.33%annually. County wide population growth has averaged approximately 2.75% per year. Traffic has grown faster than population. Traffic on many of the areas streets exceed the streets satisfactory operating capacity due to this growth. City of Wilmintrton-Traffic Increases on Selected Facilities Facility 1990 Traffic 1996 Traffic % Change College Rd. 31,040 53,038 + 71% (College Acres to New Centre) College Rd. 40..400 53,358 +32.1% (Macmillan to Wilshire) Pine Grove 13,819 17,258 + 25% (Edinboro - Greenville Loop) Wrightsville Ave. 19,719 25,108 +27.3% (Col. -Hill) Wrightsville Ave. (Dawson -Spofford) 18,663 25,609 +34.3% Mercer Ave. 6,476 17,568 +160.4% (Camden-Covil) Traffic Accidents are increasing as the volume of traffic grows the following charts illustrates this point. Comparison of Total Daily Traffic Volumes at 191 Locations in Wilmington In 1990 and 1996 TOTAL ACCIDENTS IN WILMINGTON FROM 1985 TO 1996 IFFSM P - q off Oman -BONN • How are we meeting this Challenge? The Wilmington Urban Area is addressing the need for transportation solutions in a variety of ways. �` + The Wilmington Urban Area consists of the City of Wilmington, New Hanover County, Brunswick County and the towns of Wrightsville Beach, Belville, Leland and Navassa and the North Carolina Department of Transportation (NCDOT). NCDOT and these jurisdictions work together to address the urban area's transportation needs across jurisdictional lines. Elected officials from the governing boards of the urban areas jurisdictions_ and the member of the North Carolina Board of Transportation appointed for our area work together with staff to develop and implement the Urban Area's Transportation Plan. In addition to the urban area jurisdictions the Wilmington International Airport, the Wilmington Transit Authority, the New Hanover County Bicycle Advisory Committee and the North Carolina State Ports participate in the planning process. This ensures that the areas residents and agencies receive consideration for transportation projects to relieve congestion. In addition to these agencies and officials there will be an extensive public involvement process prior to the adoption of any plan. The following planning efforts are underway to help address the area's critical transportation needs. City of Wilmington -New Hanover County Comprehensive Plan Land use is the driving force behind the growth in the urban area's traffic. New development, the growth in the tourist trade as well as in the area's institutions such as the Universitv of North Carolina at Wilmington create increasing demand on the area's transportation network. The Comprehensive Plan will develop policies that may help to lessen the impact of growth on transportation. The Comprehensive Plan will also develop proposed future land uses in New. Hanover County. These proposed land uses will be used to forecast the demands of growth on the area's transportation network. In addition to the needs of land use the Comprehensive Plan will develop policies on the inter-conectivity of streets, bicycle and pedestrian facilities and site design that affect the transportation network.y Transportation Plan Update The Wilmington Urban Area is undergoing a comprehensive Transportation Plan Update. This Plan update includes examining the area's needs for thoroughfares, bicycle and pedestrians facilities, improvements to transit senice and the possibility of implementing Transportation Demand Management systems (TDM). TDM includes measures such as van -pooling, ride -sharing (including park and ride lots and ride -matching), and working with employers to shift work hours to non -peak time periods. The Transportation plan plans the urban area's transportation network for the next 20 years. Once the transportation plan update is adopted the Urban Area may seek funding from Federal and State agencies to implement these projects. It is anticipated that an updated Transportation Plan will be presented to the public in the summer and fall of 1998. Congestion Management Svstem The Wilmington Urban Area is developing a Congestion Management System (CMS) to address the even• day congestion experienced by the area's motorists and to predict congested areas in the inunediate future. The CMS examines ways of improving the transportation system 's operations through short term measures such as changing the configuration of intersections through striping and other non -construction methods. The CMS is designed to improve the efficiency of the existing network in the short term while the Transportation Plan meets the area's long term needs. The CNIS will be an ongoing program it is anticipated that the CNIS will be in place during the summer of 1998. • •Rail Service and Multi -modal Transportation The Wilmington Urban Area is working with the North Carolina Department of Transportation to determine the feasibility of passenger rail service to the area. If this service proves feasible the urban area will seek to provide a multi -modal transfer facility with the Wilmington Transit Authority to integrate public transportation with rail service. The urban area also works with NCDOT and the State Ports to improve freight rail service. Traffic Signal Operations In addition to the planning efforts described above the City of Wilmington and NCDOT conduct an ongoing program to insure that the area's signal system is operating at peak efficiency. These agencies conduct traffic count studies at intersections throughout the area and adjust the signal system to meet the demands on the system. In many instances changing the timing on signals cannot compensate for the fact that the road network is over -loaded during the peak hours For More Information on the Transportation Planning Process Contact: City of Wilmington Transportation Planning Unit PO Box 1810 Wilmington NC 28402 (910) 341-4641 Infrastructure \ • Technical Reports Wilmington New Hanover County Comprehensive Plan Community Infrastructure 1. Description of the two reports. 2. Final Level of Service, Cost & Revenue Factor Assumptions (April 28, 1998) 3. Fiscal Impact of Providing Services in 1998 and 2010 (June 22, 1998) Two Technical Reports for the City and County Comprehensive Plan 1997-2010 • Prepared by Tischler & Associates, Inc., Bethesda, Maryland For the City of Wilmington, Planning Division 202 N. 3rd Street, 4`h Floor, Wilmington, NC 28401 (910) 341-3258 New Hanover County, Planning Department 414 Chestnut Street, Suite 304, Wilmington, NC 28401 (910) 341-7165 Description of the Community Infrastructure Assessment Using Fiscal Impact Analysis Wilmington and New Hanover County for the City and County Comprehensive Plan 1997-2010 November 1998 Prepared by the City of Wilmington, Planning Division 202 N. 3rd Street, 4th Floor, Wilmington, NC 28401 (910) 341-3258 New Hanover County, Planning Department 414 Chestnut Street, Suite 304, Wilmington, NC 28401 (910) 341-7165 • Community Infrastructure Assessment • Using Fiscal Impact Analysis A key component of the Comprehensive Plan is assessing the existing and future, needs costs and revenues of Community Infrastructure composed of : schools buildings (Cape Fear Community College, New Hanover County Schools); County library buildings; public utilities (water, sewer, streets); parks and recreation (County and City); public safety (Police, Sheriff, City Fire, County Fire); solid waste; and administration (budget and finance). • The general service categories are shown in the following table. Wilmington and New Hanover County - Community Infrastructure Assessment Using Fiscal Impact Analysis 1998 - 2010 Community Infrastructure Public Level of Service County wide Existing Improved Non -urban Existing Improved Urban Existing Improved Public schools x x Community College x x Human services x Culture - Libraries x x Culture - Parks x x Sheriff - Police x x x Fire x x x Roads - transportation x x x x General government x x x Water x x x Sewer x x x Storm Drainage x x x x Solid waste x x Parks and recreation I x Development services I x The existing and future level of service, costs and revenue analysis for Wilmington and New Hanover County was studied with Fiscal Impact Analysis in the following attached two technical reports. Tischler & Associates, a nationally recognized consulting firm analyzed the fiscal impacts of growth on City and County services. The study identified the current level of service in 1998 for all City and County services, including costs and revenues. Then projections based upon population and employment growth, show what that same level of service would be in 2010. In some cases, an improved level of service was identified, along with additional costs and benefits for 1998 and 2010. The study areas are (see map p. 3): the urban service area composed of Wilmington and the urban County area surrounding the City; the non -urban County area with north and south portions; and the County. These services were analyzed for each of these areas to reflect changes in the level of service in 1998 and expectations for service levels in 2010. The benefit to citizens of this analysis is a broader understanding of the land development costs associated with growth. The results of this study will be used in the Comprehensive Plan addressing the long range vision, goals and policies that drive land use decisions to the year 2010. 40 The reports show: the finished level of service, cost and revenue document; a fiscal impact model; and cost and revenue alternatives. The Level of Service study describes the current conditions of service costs and revenues in the City and County. A model illustrates what effect growth will have on the ability of the City and County to continue to provide those same services in 2010. The cost and revenue alternatives provide information on how to pay for the community infrastructure services. The information from the Fiscal Impact Analysis will help establish more detailed Community Infrastructure planning, identify future service needs, and manage resources based upon the Comprehensive Plan. 0 00 _ u IM • ; ;'�'' ' E 5 z Lb s ILA Lu ZOZ • • . ` ' /''//'/'' /,' / /,'ram''/' '' /'I ' /''/'/''' /''" / b r'' , '," ''/ / ''/'�''" ''' �. � CL GOP tm CL le . /, , / / / / / ' > � / , , / ,' / /�.�, t l-^a tea• , .-_ i +m U N Final Level of Service, Cost & Revenue Factor Assumptions For City of Wilmington -New Hanover County, North Carolina April 28, 1998 (R) Level of Service, Cost and Revenue Factors Wilmington -New Hanover County, North Carolina TABLE OF CONTENTS I. OVERALL METHODOLOGY AND MAJOR ASSUMPTIONS.............................................................1 A. The FISCALS Process and Data Input Categories........................................................................1 B. Major Assumptions......................................................................................................................... 2 1. Marginal, Growth -Related Costs and Revenues........................................................................ 2 2. Level of Service......................................................................................................................... 2 3. Revenue Structure and Tax Rates............................................................................................. 3 4. Inflation Rate.............................................................................................................................. 3 5. Non -Fiscal Evaluations.............................................................................................................. 3 C. Service Areas................................................................................................................................. 3 D. Market Values................................................................................................................................ 6 11. COUNTYWIDE SERVICE AREA........................................................................................................ 8 1. General Government Operating..................................................................................................... 8 A. County Manager........................................................................................................................ 8 B. Budget....................................................................................................................................... 8 C. Board of Elections...................................................................................................................... 8 D. Engineering................................................................................................................................9 E. Finance................................................................................................................................9 F. County Commissioners.............................................................................................................. 9 G. Human Resources..................................................................................................................... 9 H. County Attorney.......................................................................................................................10 I. Management Information Systems..........................................................................................10 J. Non-Departmental...................................................................................................................10 KPrint Shop................................................................................................................................11 L. Property Management.............................................................................................................11 M. Register of Deeds....................................................................................................................11 N. Tax...........................................................................................................................................12 0. Veteran Services..................................................................................................................... 12 P. Planning...................................................................................................................................12 2. Human Services...........................................................................................................................14 A. Health Department...................................................................................................................14 B. Aging.......................................................................................................................................14 C. Human Relations.....................................................................................................................14 D. Human Services Transportation..............................................................................................15 E. Social Services..........................................15 F. .......................................................................... Capital Costs...........................................................................................................................16 Tischler & Associates, Inc. Level of Service, Cost and Revenue Factors Wilmington -New Hanover County, North Carolina 3. Culture and Recreation................................................................................................................18 A. Library ......................................................................................................................................18 B. Parks........................................................................................................................................20 C. Cape Fear Museum................................................................................................................. 21 D. Cooperative Extension Service.....................................................................................:.......... 22 4. Schools........................................................................................................................................ 24 A. Capital Costs........................................................................................................................... 24 B. Operating Costs................................................................................................................... 26 5. Cape Fear Community College.................................................................................................... 28 A. Capital Costs........................................................................................................................... 28 B. Operating and Maintenance Costs.......................................................................................... 30 6. Public Safety................................................................................................................................ 33 A. Court System........................................................................................................................... 33 B. Emergency Management......................................................................................................... 33 C. Emergency Medical Services................................................................................................... 34 D. Inspections............................................................................................................................... 34 E. Sheriffs Department................................................................................................................ 34 7. General Fund Revenues.............................................................................................................. 44 A. Ad Valorem Tax....................................................................................................................... 44 • B. Ad Valorem Interest................................................................................................................. 44 C. Real Property Transfer Tax...................................................................................................... 45 D. One -Half Cent Sales Tax Fund................................................................................................ 45 E. Beer and Wine Tax.................................................................................................................. 45 F. Alcoholic Beverage Control (ABC) Revenues.......................................................................... 46 G. Cable Franchise Fees.............................................................................................................. 46 H. Intergovernmental Revenue..................................................................................................... 46 I. User Fees................................................................................................................................ 47 J. Intangibles Tax........................................................................................................................ 47 K Other General Government Revenues....................:............................................................... 47 L. Interest on Investments............................................................................................................ 47 M. Appropriated Fund Balance..................................................................................................... 48 8. New Hanover County Fire District................................................................................................ 50 A. Impact on Volunteer Fire Departments.................................................................................... 50 9. New Hanover County Water and Sewer District.......................................................................... 51 10. Environmental Management Fund............................................................................................... 52 III. URBAN SERVICE AREA................................................................................................................. 53 1. General Government.................................................................................................................... 53 Tischler & Associates, Inc. Level of Service, Cost and Revenue Factors Wilmington -New Hanover County, North Carolina A.' City Council ............................................................................................. ......................... 53 B. City Clerk............................................................................................................................. .... 53 C. City Manager........................................................................................................................... 53 D. City Attorney............................................................................................................................ 54 E. Human Resource Management............................................................................................... 54 F. Finance....................................................................................................................................55 G. Administrative Services........................................................................................................... 55 H. Development Services.............................................................................................................. 56 I. Sundry Appropriations ......................................................................................................... 58 2. Police...........................................................................................................................................61 A. Operating Costs....................................................................................................................... 61 B. Capital Costs........................................................................................................................... 67 3. Fire...............................................................................................................................................70 A. Operating Costs....................................................................................................................... 70 B. Impact on Volunteer Fire Departments.................................................................................... 72 C. Capital Costs........................................................................................................................... 73 4. Public Services and Facilities....................................................................................................... 76 A. Administration..........................................................................................................................76 B. ......................................................................................... Operations ................ ......................76 C. Transportation..........................................................................................................................78 D. Solid Waste.............................................................................................................................. 79 D. Recreation............................................................................................................................... 80 5. General Fund Revenues.............................................................................................................. 83 A. Property Taxes........................................................................................................................ 83 B. Penalty and Interest on Property Taxes................................................................................... 83 C. Sales Tax................................................................................................................................. 83 D. Licenses, Fees and Permits..................................................................................................... 84 E. Intergovernmental Revenues................................................................................................... 85 F. Charges for Public Service ..................................... :................................................................ 86 G. Charges for Recreation Programs........................................................................................... 86 H. Miscellaneous Charges for Service......................................................................................... 86 I. Charges for General Government Services............................................................................. 86 J. Charges for Public Safety Services......................................................................................... 87 KFines and Forfeitures............................................................................................................... 87 L. Investment Income................................................................................................................... 87 M. Other Revenue........................................................................................................................ 87 N. Appropriated Fund Balance Tischler & Associates, Inc. Level of Service, Cost and Revenue Factors Wilmington -New Hanover County, North Carolina 6. Public Utilities Fund...................................................................................................................... 89 7. Community Development Block Grant Fund................................................................................ 89 8. Home Investment Partnership Fund........................................................... ............................... 89 10. Parking Facility Fund.................................................................................................................... 89 11. Solid Waste Management Fund................................................................................................... 90 A. Operating Costs....................................................................................................................... 90 12. Equipment Maintenance/Replacement Fund............................................................................... 90 13. Golf Course Enterprise Fund....................................................................................................... 91 APPENDIXI.............................................................................................................................................. 92 APPENDIXII............................................................................................................................................. 94 • Tischler & Associates, Inc. I. OVERALL METHODOLOGY AND MAJOR ASSUMPTIONS The City 9 of Wilmington and New Hanover County have contracted with TIscrER& Tischler & Associates, Inc. (TA) to evaluate the fiscal impact of growth to both )5j,SS M, INC. the City and County between 1997 and 2010. These impacts will be evaluated 4701 Sangamore Road from a Countywide, Urban and Nonurban perspective. In addition, for certain Suite N210 Bethesda, MD 20816 facilities and services, the fiscal impact of a higher level of service will be (301)320-6900 calculated. Fax: (301) 320-4860 80 Annandale Road This Service Level, Cost and Revenue Factors document discusses City Pasadena, CA 91105-1404 (818) 790-6170 and County services and facilities that will be impacted by new development. Fax: (818) 790-6235 (800) 424-4318 These service level, cost and revenue factors are based on TA's on -site interviews with City and County staff and project management team. The final assumptions will be utilized with demographic projections to calculate the fiscal impact on the City of Wilmington and New Hanover County budgets for the 13- year period between 1997 and 2010. Calculations will be performed using TA's FISCALS software designed exclusively for the City of Wilmington and New Hanover County. A. The FISCALS Process and Data Input Categories In order to provide an understanding of the overall methodology used in this fiscal impact analysis, a brief explanation of the FISCALS process follows. The FISCALS software utilizes two types of input data. The first category of demographic/economic projections is called Demand Base data inputs. These .numerical projections include data such as population, housing units, employment, and commercial and industrial space. The 1997 population and job estimates, in addition to the current number of dwelling units, were used to calculate unit costs and service level thresholds. These estimates were Fiscal Impact Analysis • provided by the City of Wilmington and New Hanover County Planning Capital Facility Analysis Impact Fee systems Departments. Growth Policy Planning Economic and Market Analysis MUNIES, FISCALS & CRIM 1 Fiscal impact systems tailored for each community Level of Service, Cost and Revenue Factors Wilmington -New Hanover County, North Carolina The second type of input data relates to the government_ service levels, costs and revenues. The government service level, cost and revenue data used in the fiscal analysis have been determined and agreed upon by TA and City of Wilmington and New Hanover County personnel. This data will be used by TA's FISCALS system to calculate the annual costs, revenues, and capital facilities by department or function, where appropriate. These assumptions are outlined in this report. B. Major Assumptions This fiscal impact analysis can be regarded as a snapshot of the current budget. The Fiscal Year 1998 Budget has been used to represent a "snapshot" of the City and County's current costs, revenues and levels of service. In summary, the "snapshot" approach does not attempt to speculate about how services, costs, revenues and other factors will change over 13 years. Instead, it evaluates the fiscal impact on the City and County as they currently conduct business under the present budgets. The following major assumptions regarding the fiscal methodology should be noted. 1. Marginal, Growth -Related Costs and Revenues For this analysis, costs and revenues that are directly attributable to new development or from the annexation of existing development are included. Some costs are not expected to be impacted by demographic changes, and may be fixed in this analysis, such as some administrative functions. In this analysis, most of the costs are driven by new residents and new jobs. On the revenue side, income of residents and value of dwelling units have an impact on the amount of revenue collections. 2. Level of Service The cost projections are based on the "snapshot approach" in which it is assumed the current level of spending, as provided in the Fiscal Year 1998 budget, will 2 Tischler & Associates, Inc. Level of Service, Cost and Revenue Factors Wilmington -New Hanover County, North Carolina 46 • continue through the 13 year analysis period. The current level of spending is referred to as the current level of service (LOS) in this type of analysis. 3. Revenue Structure and Tax Rates In most cases, revenues are projected assuming that the current revenue structure and tax rates, as defined by the FY98 adopted budget, will not change during the analysis period. However, when it is known that an increase or decrease will occur in a rate or structure, it will be reflected and noted. 4. Inflation Rate The rate of inflation is assumed to be zero throughout the projection period, and cost and revenue projections are in constant 1997 dollars. This assumption is in accord with current budget data and avoids the difficulty of speculating on inflation rates and their effect on cost and revenue categories. It also avoids the problem of interpreting results expressed in inflated dollars. 5. Non -Fiscal Evaluations It should be noted that while a fiscal impact analysis is an important consideration in planning decisions, it is only one of several issues that should be considered. Environmental and social issues, for example, should also be considered when making planning and policy decisions. The above notwithstanding, this analysis will enable interested parties to understand the fiscal implications of future development. C. Service Areas The City of Wilmington and New Hanover County has asked TA to evaluate the impact of growth on three geographic layers upon which levels of service will be based. These geographic layers are as follows and can be found in Appendix I of this document. Countvwide: The Countywide services to be evaluated include public schools, community college, human services, culture/library, culture/parks, sheriff and general 3 Tischler & Associates, Inc. Level of Service, Cost and Revenue Factors Wilmington -New Hanover County, North Carolina government. The four categories in which an improved level of service is considered are community college, schools, culture/library, and culture/parks. The demand base for the Countywide service area is shown in the table below. Demand Base Information Countvwide Service Area 1997 1998 2010 Increase Absolute % Category Estimate Projection Projection 1997-2010 Increase Population 149,211 151,611 180,417 31,206 21% Employment Retail 28,669 29,085 34,072 6,403 19% Office 15,100 15,316 17,914 2,814 19% Flex* 14,771 14,973 17,394 2,623 18% Total 58,540 59,374 69,380 .10,840 19% Housing Single Family 41,292 41,915 49,388 8,096 20% Duplex/Townhome 5,496 5,723 8,451 2,955 64% Apartment 10,321 10,459 12,117 1,796 17% Mobile Home 3,785 3,785 3,785 0 0% Total 60,894 61,882 73,741 12,847 21% Nonresidential Sq. Ft.** Retail 11,467,600 11,633,846 13,628,800 2,161,200 19% Office 3,653,550 3,814,162 4,520,100 866,650 24% Flex 6,930,113 7,222,240 8,691,332 1,761,219 25% Total 22,051,263 22,670,248 26,840,232 4,788,969 22% *Flex space is a space utilized for various industrial uses with 10%-20% of the space utilized for office activity **The nonresidential square footage is based on the assumptions contained in the following two tables Nonurban: The Nonurban service area reflects the existing level of services as provided by the County as its proxy. The Nonurban services include Countywide services provided by the County, but also includes the Fire District, which will be impacted significantly as the City provides services to the annexation areas in 1998 and Urban areas of the County in 2010. The demand base for the Non -Urban service area is shown in the table below. The negative numbers reflect the annexation of this area by the City and the loss of Nonurban service area population and employment 4 Tischler & Associates, Inc. Level of Service, Cost and Revenue Factors Wilmington -New Hanover County, North Carolina s • Demand Base Information _ .._LA� 1997 1998 2010 Increase Absolute % Category Estimate* Projection* Projection** 1997-2010 Decrease Population 85,047 51,334 31,935 (63,112) -62% Employment Retail 10,148 5,415 2,440 (7,708) -76% Office 5,050 2,347 1,230 (3,820) -76% Flex* 9,914 8,254 6,851 (3,063) -31% Total 25,112 16,016 10,621 14,591) -58% Housing Single Family 26,638 15,204 6,886 (19,752) -74% Duplex/Townhome 2,251 592 443 (1,808) -80% Apartment 447 473 - (447) -100% Mobile Home 3,285 2,153 1,156 (2,129) -66% Total 32,621 18,421 8,485 (24,136) -74% Nonresidential Sq. Ft.*** Retail 4,059,200 2,165,815 976,000 (3,083,200) -76% Office 1,090,800 506,969 265,680 (826,120) -76% Flex 4,292,762 3,574,115 2,966,483 (1,326,279) -31% Total 9,442,762 6,246,899 4,208,163 5,234,599 -55% *Includes Non -Urban and Urban County areas **Urban County becomes part of Urban Service Area ***Nonresidential square footage was estimated using the following factors developed by the Urban Land Institute: 400 sq. ft. (Retail), 216 sq. ft. (Office), and 433 (Flex) Urban: The City of Wilmington, the three annexation areas, and an urbanized portion of the County comprise the urban service area. The service categories evaluated are police, fire, roads, general government, parks and recreation, and development services. The demand base for the Urban service area is shown in the table below. 5 Tischler & Associates, Inc. Level of Service, Cost and Revenue Factors Wilmington -New Hanover County, North Carolina Demand Base Information lJrban Service Area 1997 1998 2010 Increase Absolute % Category Estimate* Projection** Projection*** 1997.2010 Increase Population 64,164 100,277 148,482 84,318 131% Employment Retail 18,521 23,670 31,632 13,111 71% Office 10,050 12,969 16,684 6,634 66% 171ex* 4,857 6,718 10,543 5,686 117% Total 33,428 43,358 68,869 25,431 76% Housing Single Family 14,654 26,711 42,502 27,848 190% Duplex/Townhome 3,245 5,132 8,008 4,763 147% Apartment 9,874 9,987 12,117 2,243 23% Mobile Home 500 1,632 2,629 2,129 426% Total 28,273 43,461 65,256 36,983 131% Nonresidential Sq.Ft.**** Retail 7,408,400 9,468,031 12,652,800 5,244,400 71% Office 2,562,750 3,307,193 4,254,420 1,691,670 66% Flex 2,637,351 3,648,125 5,724,849 3,087,498 117% Total 12,608,501 16,423,348 22,632,069 1 10,023,568 79% *City of Wilmingon only "Assumes City and Phase I, II & III Annexation areas -Adds Urban Portion of County —Nonresidential square footage was estimated using the following factors developed by the Urban Land Institute: 400 sq. ft. (Retail), 255 sq. ft. (Office), and 543 (Flex) D. Market Values Market values for new residential and nonresidential construction has been estimated for the City, Phase I, II, and III annexation areas, as well the County. The estimates for the single family and duplex/townhome categories were obtained through an analysis of information provided by the New Hanover County Board of Realtors. The apartment market value was obtained using the Marshall & Swift Valuation Service, assuming a square foot cost of $54.36 (based on localized Wilmington area data), a multiplier of 20% for land, and an average unit size of 950 square feet. The Marshall & Swift Valuation Service was also used to obtain nonresidential • market values. For the retail category, a Good Class C Community Scale Shopping Center was assumed for the City and Phase I, 11, and III annexation areas, with a square foot value of $59.48 (based on localized Wilmington area data) and a 20% • 6 Tischler & Associates, Inc. Level of Service, Cost and Revenue Factors Wilmington -New Hanover County, North Carolina f multiplier for land. Retail space in the County was assumed to be Average Class C, with a square foot value of $56.13 (based on localized Wilmington area data) and a 20% multiplier for land. For office space in the City and Phase I, II, and III annexation areas a Good Class C construction was assumed, with a square foot value of $56.62 (based on localized Wilmington area data) and a 20% multiplier for land. Average Class D construction was assumed for office space in the County, with a square foot value of $53.57 (based on localized Wilmington area data) and a 20% multiplier for land. Flex space in the City and Phase I, II, and III annexation areas was assumed to be Average Class C, with a square foot value of $28.43 (based on localized Wilmington area data) and a 20% multiplier for land. Flex space in the County was assumed to be Low Cost Class S, with a value of $17.89 per square foot (based on localized Wilmington area � data) and a 20% multiplier for land. The table below contains the market value assumptions. Market Values of New Construction city of WilminntnnMaw Hanover County 7 Unit City Phase I Phase 11 Phase III County Single Family* $146,862 $356,616 $222,738 $205,063 $159,398 Duplex/Townhome* $93,712 $113,502 $113,502 $113,502 $143,120 Apartment" $61,969 $61,969 $61,969 $61,969 $61,969 Retail (per sq. ft.)** $71.38 $71.38 $71.38 $71.38 $67.36 Office (per sq. ft.)** $67.94 $67.94 $67.94 $67.94 $64.28 Flex(per sq. ft.)** $34.12 $34.12 $34.12 $34.12 $21.47 'Source: New Hanover County Board of Realtors **Source: Marshall & Swift Valuation Service Tischler & Associates, Inc. Level of Service, Cost and Revenue Factors Wilmington -New Hanover County, North Carolina II. COUNTYWIDE SERVICE AREA 1. GENERAL GOVERNMENT OPERATING A. County Manager The County Administrator is the chief administrator of the County government, responsible to the Board of Commissioners for administering all departments of County government. The Manager provides administrative and legislative leadership by supervising departmental operations, recommending new and revised policies and programs to the Commissioners, and ensuring that policies and programs adopted by the Board of Commissioners are executed in an effective and economical manner. The FY98 budget for this Department totals $552,427. This budget is not expected to increase significantly as a result of new growth and will remain fixed in the fiscal impact analysis. B. Budget The budget Department provides financial information and guidance to the Board of Commissioners and County Manager. The Department is responsible for the audit and evaluation of ongoing management and fiscal controls of the County. The FY98 budget for this Department totals $248,520. This budget is not expected to increase significantly as a result of new growth and will remain fixed in the fiscal impact analysis. C. Board of Elections The Board of Elections is responsible for.conducting all elections including party primaries, general, municipal, and special elections, and referendums held within the County. Voter registration records for all County and municipal voters are maintained by this office. The FY98 budget for the Board of Elections is $666,145. This budget is projected to increase with population, although on a partial cost basis estimated at 25%. The FY98 budget of $666,145 is multiplied by 25% and is then divided by the 1997 population estimate of 149,211, for a partial per capita increase of $1.12. • 8 Tischler & Associates, Inc. Level of Service, Cost and Revenue Factors Wilmington -New Hanover County, North Carolina D. Engineering The Engineering Department provides for the administration and inspection of a variety of functions including: Sedimentation and Erosion permits, certain aspects of subdivision reviews, engineering and construction contracts, review of sewer plans, inspection of sewer system construction and-acquMion-of easements:---The-Department also operates and maintains the County's water and sewer systems. The FY98 budget for Engineering totals $543,113. Operating costs for water and sewer activities are reflected in the New Hanover County Water & Sewer District Fund. Other operating costs are expected to remain fixed. Therefore the FY98 budget of $543,113 will remain fixed in the fiscal impact analysis. E. Finance The Finance Department is responsible for maintaining a centralized Countywide system of financial planning, reporting and control. The Department is responsible for preparing for bond sales, managing debt, accounting for the County's receipts and disbursements, processing payroll, managing investments, accounting for the County's fixed asset inventory, billing for water and sewer, as well as other financial functions. The FY98 budget for this Department totals $872,119. This budget is not expected to increase significantly as a result of new growth and will remain fixed in the fiscal impact analysis. F. County Commissioners The County Commissioners budget covers the operating expenses and salaries of the five -member County Commissioners. The County Commissioners are responsible for adopting the annual budget, establishing a tax rate, enacting local ordinances and setting County policy. The FY98 budget for the Commissioners is $338,988. This budget is not expected to increase significantly as a result of new growth and will remain fixed in the fiscal impact analysis. G. Human Resources The Department of Human Resources administers the recruitment and employee selection process for all County departments, assuring compliance with federal, state, 9 Tischler & Associates, Inc. Level of Service, Cost and Revenue Factors Wilmington -New Hanover County, North Carolina and/or local regulations and polices, and maintains employee personnel records. The ` N FY98 budget for Human Resources totals $558,001. This budget is projected to increase with population and employment, although on a partial cost basis estimated at 50%. The FY98 budget of $558,001 is multiplied by 50% and is then divided by the 1997 population and employment estimate of 207,751, for a partial per capita and employee increase of $1.34. H. County Attorney The County Attorney provides legal counsel and representation to the Board of Commissioners, County Manager, County Departments, and Boards and Commissions to ensure their work is performed in a legally authorized and productive manner. The Department also prepares and reviews all legal documents, represents the County in all civil litigation, and reviews and enforces the County ordinances. The FY98 budget for the County Attorney !s_$45.6,268..._This -budget is. projected_ to iacrEase..witb_population and employment. The FY98 budget of $456,268 is divided by the 1997 population and employment estimate of 207,751, for a per capita and employee increase of $2.20 I. Management Information Systems The Management Information Systems Department (MIS) provides information management to all County departments through computer hardware and software services. The Department is also responsible for providing support for all hardware and software purchases. The FY98 budget for the Board of Elections is $2,091,246. This budget is projected to increase with population, although on a partial cost basis estimated at 25%. The FY98 budget of $2,091,246 is multiplied by 25% and is then divided by the 1997 population estimate of 149,211, for a partial per capita increase of $3.50. J. Non -Departmental This budget contains funds for principal and interest on bonded debt, transfer to other funds, as well as contingencies. In this analysis, TA's FISCALS software will calculate future debt payments for capital facilities due to growth. The assumed interest rate is 6% and the term is 20 years. Therefore existing debt service is not included. • 10 Tischler & Associates, Inc. Level of Service, Cost and Revenue Factors Wilmington -New Hanover County, North Carolina im Once debt service of $4,521,137 is netted out of the budget, the remaining Non- Departmental budget is $1,113,703. This budget is projected to increase with population, although on a partial cost basis estimated at 25%. The adjusted FY98 budget of $1,113,703 is multiplied by 25% and is then divided by the 1997 population estimate of 149,211, for a partial per capita increase of $1.87. K. Print Shop The Print Shop is responsible for the County's departmental printing needs offering assistance in all printing related matters including paper selection, layout, preparation, and printing. The FY98 budget for the Print Shop is $158,800. Based on discussions with County staff, this budget is not expected to increase significantly as a result of new growth and will remain fixed in the fiscal impact analysis. L. Property Management The Property Management Department is responsible for providing a safe and comfortable environment for the public and employees in New Hanover County facilities through quality and cost -saving maintenance, repairs and housekeeping services. The Vehicle Management Division maintains the County's vehicle fleet of 330. The FY98 budget for Vehicle Management totals $3,888,234 and will remain fixed in the fiscal analysis since TA will be direct entering vehicle maintenance costs for new vehicles purchased by the County as a result of new growth. The FY98 budget for the Property Management Division totals $3,067,860. This budget will also remain fixed as TA will direct enter maintenance costs for new County facilities built as a result of new growth. M. Register of Deeds The Register of Deeds is responsible for recording, indexing and maintaining accurate records governed by North Carolina General Statutes and local ordinances. This Department is the custodian of all County legal records, which include: vital records such as births, deaths, and marriages; tax maps, land and property transactions, etc. The FY98 budget for this Department totals $895,256. The operating costs for this Department are assumed to be covered by the fees collected for transactions and will not be independently calculated in the fiscal impact analysis. 11 Tischler & Associates, Inc. Level of Service, Cost and Revenue Factors Wilmington -New Hanover County, North Carolina N. Tax The Tax Department is responsible for obtaining, developing, and maintaining • records necessary for the appraisal, assessment, billing, collection and listing of taxes associated with real and personal property within the County. The FY98 budget for this Department totals $1,834,763. The budget is expected to increase with residential and nonresidential growth in the County, although on a partial cost basis estimated at 25%. The FY budget of $1,834,763 is multiplied by 25% and is then divided by the 1997 population and employment estimate of 207,751, for a per capita and employee increase of $2.21. O. Veteran Services The Veterans Services Department counsels and advises veterans, their dependents and survivors of their entitlements and benefits under Federal and State laws. This includes responsibility for proper processing of all claims to the Department of Veterans Affairs. The FY98 budget for Veteran Services is $39,449. This budget is not expected to increase significantly as a result of new growth and will remain fixed in the fiscal impact analysis. P. Planning The Planning Department provides guidance and direction in the adoption of policies and regulations to encourage orderly and balanced growth and development in New Hanover County. The Department is directly responsible for the administration and enforcement of the Subdivision and Zoning Ordinances, Special Use Permits, site plan approval and street mapping, and addressing in the County. The FY98 County contribution to this Department totals $621,196. This budget is projected to impacted by additional population and employment growth. The FY98 County contribution is divided by the 1997 population and employment estimate of 207,751, for a per capita and job cost of $2.99. • 12 Tischler & Associates, Inc. Level of Service, Cost and Revenue Factors Wilmington -New Hanover County, North Carolina GENERAL GOVERNMENT •' Activity Allocation Amount A. County Manager Fixed N/A B. Budget Fixed N/A C. Board of Elections Partial per capita $1.12 D. Engineering Fixed N/A E. Finance Fixed N/A F. County Commissioners Fixed N/A G. Human Resources Partial per capita & emp. $1.34 H. County Attorney Per capita & emp. $2.20 I. Management Information Systems Partial per capita $3.50 J. Non -Departmental See text N/A K. Print Shop Fixed N/A L. Properly Management Direct entry See text M. Register of Deeds See text N. Tax Partial per capita & emp. $2.21 O. Veterans Services Fixed N/A P. Planning Per capita & emp. $2.99 •1 13 Tischler & Associates, Inc. Level of Service, Cost and Revenue Factors Wilmington -New Hanover County, North Carolina 2. HUMAN SERVICES i A. Health Department The Health Department provides quality health care, preventive medical and dental services, and environmental protection for the citizens of New Hanover County through the following programs: Environmental Health; Vector Control; Animal Control; Women, Infants & Children (WIC) Program; Adult Health; Child Health; Dental Health; Health Promotion Programs; General Nutrition Program; Community Health; Women's Health Care; and Communicable Disease Program. The FY98 County contribution to this Department totals $4,235,109. From this amount is deducted fixed costs of $255,855 for Mosquito Control, $502,838 for Administration, and $4,820 for the Board of Health, for a net variable cost contribution of $3,471,596. The FY98 variable cost contribution is divided by the 1997 population estimate of 149,211, for a per capita cost of $23.27. B. Aging The New Hanover County Department of Aging serves persons sixty years or older through a variety of recreational, educational, and social programs. Services include operation of the Senior Center; providing transportation services to seniors; adult day care services; administering the Retired Senior Volunteer Program; managing the Home Delivered Meals and Congregate Nutrition Programs; and providing in -home services. The FY98 County contribution to the Aging Department amounts to $530,589. As the population in the County grows, so too will the elderly population. Therefore, the FY98 County contribution is divided by the 11a97 population estimate of 149,211, for a per capita cost of $3.56. C. Human Relations The Human Relations Department provides staff support for the New Hanover Human Relations Commission. The Department and Commission address the elimination of discriminatory practices with regard to race, color, gender, national origin, religious belief, age disability, and familial status. The Department also enforces the 14 Tischler & Associates, Inc. Level of Service. Cost and Revenue Factors Wilmington -New Hanover County, North Carolina County's Fair Employment and Fair Housing Ordinances. The FY98 County contribution to the Department totals $276,445. This Department's activities are projected to increase with additional population growth in the County. The FY98 County contribution is divided by the 1997 population estimate of 149,211, for a per capita cost of $1.85. D. Human Services Transportation New Hanover Transportation Services (NHTS) is a coordinated human service system, designed to meet transportation needs of the elderly, disabled, Medicaid eligible pregnant women and dependent children, and other special populations who are clients of human service agencies. The FY98 County contribution to the NHTS amounts to $30,762. The provision of this service is projected to increase with additional population growth. The FY98 County contribution is divided by the 1997 population estimate of 149,211 for a per capita cost of $0.21. E. Social Services • The Department of Social Services provides economic assistance to New Hanover County citizens with basic subsistence needs and provides services to citizens with physical, social and emotional problems. Programs the Department offer include: the Work First Program; Foster Care Services to Children; Foster Care Services for Adults; Child Day Care Services; Services to the Blind; Low Income Energy Assistance; Child Support Enforcement; Medicaid; Food Stamps; Protective Services for Children; and Crisis Intervention, AFDC -Emergency Assistance, and Project Share. The FY98 County contribution to this Department totals $11,335,727. From this amount is deducted the fixed costs of $3,698,145 for Administration and $986 for the Social Services Board, for a net variable County contribution of $7,636,596. As the population of the County increases, so too will the demands placed on this Department. The FY98 County variable cost contribution is divided by the 1997 population estimate of 149,211, for a per capita cost of $51.18. 15 Tischler & Associates, Inc. Level of Service, Cost and Revenue Factors Wilmington -New Hanover County, North Carolina F. Capital Costs New Hanover Count H Service y Human Se ice agencies operate out of three facilities in the County. These facilities and their square footage are shown in the table below. Existing Human Services Space Building Square Footage Aging Center 29,200 Health Department 20,000 Social Services 38,000 Total 87,200 Divided by 1997 Population Estimate 149,211 =S uare Feet per Capita .58 As indicated in the table, square footage for Human Services totals 87,200 square feet. When compared to the 1997 population estimate of 149,211, the result is a ratio of .58 square feet per person. There are currently no plans for new Human Service capital facilities in the near future. However, in order for New Hanover County to maintain the current level of service for Human Services, additional space will have to be constructed in the future. Therefore, the current level of service is multiplied by the current cost to develop a square foot of Human Service space, $121 (figure is based on the Marshall & Swift Valuation Service, Good Class C Public Building, 20% was added for furnishings and contingencies). This results in a one-time Human Services capital cost per person of $66.70. • 16 Tischler & Associates, Inc. Level of Service, Cost and Revenue Factors Wilmington -New Hanover County, North Carolina HUMAN SERVICES Activit Allocation Amount B. Health Department Per capita $23.27 B. Aging Per capita $3.56 C. Human Relations Per capita $1.85 D. Human Services Transportation Per capita $0.21 E. Social Services Per capita $51.18 F. Capital Costs One-time cost $66.70 per capita 17 Tischler & Associates, Inc. Level of Service, Cost and Revenue Factors Wilmington -New Hanover County, North Carolina 3. CULTURE AND RECREATION A. Library The New Hanover County Public Library provides high quality library services to County citizens through the Main Library, three branches, and the Law Library. The Library provides the public access to over 264,000 books in its collection through a computerized catalog. For the fiscal impact analysis, TA will be measuring the cost of maintaining the existing level of service, as well as providing an improved level of service for the Library. The improved level of service will be reflected in additional space and more books per capita. 1. Capital Costs -Existing Level of Service a. Library Space The New Hanover County Public Library current operates 66,987 square feet of space. The table below provides detailed information regarding square footage by branch. Current Library Space Facility Existing Square Footage Main Library 52,000 Myrtle Grove Branch 6,987 Plaza East Branch leased 3,800 Carolina Beach 2,200 Law Library 2,000 Total 66,987 In order to maintain the current level of service to serve the 2010 County population, the library estimates that it needs to texpand several branches, construct an additional branch, and renovate one existing branch. These expansions and their estimated capital costs are presented in the table below: 18 Additional Library S ace Needs Facility Space Needed Year Built Estimated Capital Costs Main Library 26,000 1998 $1 560 000 Myrtle Grove Branch 3,013 2000 $180 780 Military Cut-off 20,000 2002 $4 700 000 Carolina Beach N/A renovation 2005 $100 000 Northchase new 10,000 2008 $1 450 000 Total 59,013 $7,990,780 Source: New Hanover County Library Tischler & Associates, Inc. • Level of Service, Cost and Revenue Factors Wilmington -New Hanover County, North Carolina These capital costs of $3,290,780 will be direct entered into the fiscal model as the cost of maintaining the current level of service in terms of library space. This cost is assumed to be debt financed at 6% interest over a 20-year period. b. Books The current level of service in terms of books per capita is 1.89. The Library estimates the average cost of a book at $17. This cost will be applied to population growth between 1998 and 2010. 2. Operating Costs The County's FY98 contribution to the Library operating budget totals $1,780,170. TA will direct enter the marginal increase in operations (including staffing) and maintenance costs for the expansions, based on the Northeast Branch Library Site Report. These costs are estimated at $584,000. 3. Improved Level of Service For purposes of the fiscal impact analysis, an improved level of service is expressed in additional square footage and additional books per capita. a. Additional Library Space northeastern portion of the Count on . The Library owns a tract of land m the ort p y which they would like to build a 20,000 square foot branch. The development of this site would provide the Library system the amount of the space they feel is appropriate for the County to 2010. The cost to construct this branch is estimated at $2,600,000. In addition, another $300,000 is required for equipment and furniture. These cost will be direct entered into the model in 2005 and are assumed to be financed through a 20-year bond at 6% interest. b. Books The level of service in terms of books per capita is assumed to increase to 3 books per capita, rather than the current 1.9 per capita. The cost of $17 per book is assumed. G. Operating Costs -Improved Level of Service Annual operations and maintenance costs for the additional branch location is estimated at $200,000 annually. This cost will be direct entered into the fiscal model in 2005. 19 Tischler & Associates, Inc. Level of Service, Cost and Revenue Factors Wilmington -New Hanover County, North Carolina B. Parks The Parks Department presently operates thirty parks and beach access areas, which provide a variety of outdoor recreational opportunities for New Hanover County citizens and visitors. The Parks Department also operates and maintains outdoor recreation facilities on public school property. The table below provides information regarding current County Park acreage. Park Acreage New Hanover Coun , North Carolina Park Classification Acres Regional Parks 178 Community Parks 158 Neighborhood Parks 36 Source: New Hanover County Parks Department The County usually obtains Neighborhood Park land through acquisition using bond proceeds. Community Parks are typically located on School property. Therefore, the County Parks budget is typically impacted strictly from an operating perspective. Capital costs will be incurred from the development of Regional Parks. In addition, TA will also be measuring the cost of providing an improved level of service for the Parks Department. The improved level of service will be reflected in an additional regional park. 1. Capital Costs -Existing Level of Service a. Ogden Park Ogden Park opened in the Spring of 1997. At that time, approximately 1/3 of the facilities planned for the park were completed. The cost to complete the park is estimated at $2,000,000, including $500,000 in 'the FY98 budget, which will be directly entered into the fiscal model. The remaining development costs will be phased in over a three-year period. b. Pilot Ridge Park This 110 acre park will be developed in conjunction three schools in the Monkey Junction area of the County. The land cost per acre is estimated at $25,000 for a total land cost of $2,750,000. ., 20 Tischler & Associates, Inc. Level of Service, Cost and Revenue Factors Wilmington -New Hanover County, North Carolina C. Additional Regional Park • In order to maintain the current level of service for Regional Parks, the Parks Department estimates another regional park facility will need to be constructed prior to 2010. In lieu of a formal facility plan for this park, the cost to acquire and develop this park is estimated at $3,000,000. This cost will be directly entered into the model in 2007 and is assumed to be debt financed over 20 years at an annual interest rate of 6%. 2. Capital Costs -Improved Level of Service An improved level of service will be reflected in a second Regional Park facility over what is needed to maintain the current level of service. A capital cost of $3,000,000 will be used as a proxy to represent the acquisition and development costs of this park. The cost will be direct entered into the model in 2005 and is assumed to be debt financed over 20 years at an annual interest rate of 6%. 3. Operating Costs a. Maintenance Costs The County's current annual maintenance cost per acre is $2,794. As additional regional park land is developed to serve new growth, the fiscal model will apply this cost per acre on annual basis. b. Staffing The County's current level of service for acres maintained per employee is 14.3. For every additional 14.3 acres of park land built to serve new growth, the fiscal model will add an additional employee, at an estimated cost of $28,000, including benefits. C. Cape Fear Museum The Cape Fear Museum is the oldest history museum in the state of North Carolina. It collects, preserves, and interprets objects relating to the history, science, and cultures of the Lower Cape Fear, and makes those objects available to the public through educational exhibitions and programs. The FY98 County contribution to the Museum totals $701,105. The Museum is not expected to be significantly impacted by additional growth and will remain fixed in the fiscal impact analysis. 21 Tischler & Associates, Inc. Level of Service, Cost and Revenue Factors Wilmington -New Hanover County, North Carolina D. Cooperative Extension Service The North Carolina Cooperative Extension Service is a unique educational system with support from the County, State and Federal governments. The Service is a component of the State's two land grant universities. The Service helps people improve the quality of their lives by providing research -based information and informal educational opportunities in the areas of agriculture, home economics, 4-H and youth and community resource development. The FY98 County contribution to the Service totals $386,550. As the population in the County increases, so will the demands placed on the Cooperative Extension Service. The FY98 County contribution is divided by the 1997 population estimate of 149,211, for a per capita increase of $2.59. • • 22 Tischler & Associates, Inc. Level of Service, Cost and Revenue Factors Wilmington -New Hanover County, North Carolina i CULTURE AND RECREATION Activit Allocation A. Library 1. Capital Costs L=� C. D. 23 a. Library Space Direct entry b. Books 1.9 books per capita 2. Operating Costs Direct enter 3. Improved Level of Service a. Library Space Direct entry b. Books 3.0 books per capita c. Operating Costs Direct entry Parks 1. Capital Costs -Existing Level of Service a. Ogden Park Direct entry b. Pilot Ridge Park Direct entry c. Additional Regional Park Direct entry 2. Capital Cost -Improved Level of Service a. Additional Regional Park Direct entry 3. Operating Costs a. Maintenance Cost Per acre b. Staff Per 14.3 acres Cape Fear Museum Fixed Cooperative Extension Service Per capita Amount $3,290,780 $17.00 $384,000 $6,190,780 $17.00 $584,000 $2,000,000 $2,750,000 $3,000,000 $3,000,000 $2, 794 $28,000 N/A $2.59 Tischler & Associates, Inc. Level of Service, Cost and Revenue Factors Wilmington -New Hanover County, North Carolina 4. SCHOOLS The New Hanover County Board of Education operates 33 schools. This includes 23 elementary schools, 6 middle schools, and 4 high schools, including an alternative high school. Full time enrollment totals 10,377 ,elementary students, 4,917 middle school students, and 6,159 high school students, for a total full time enrollment of 21,453. New Hanover County is responsible for the building needs of the schools (with some assistance from the State) and the related bonded debt of the Board of Education. In addition the County allocates funds for some school personnel and operating expenses. A. Capital Costs 1. Existing Level of Service Information compiled for school capital facility needs was obtained from the New Hanover Schools Long Range Building Program, 1997-2007. For the fiscal analysis, TA will be considering only schools needed to serve new growth. This analysis does not consider facilities necessary to relieve existing overcrowding. • The fiscal analysis measures the cost to serve new growth to the year 2010. The New Hanover County Schools Long Range Building Plan has a horizon of 2007. TA requested that New Hanover County Schools evaluate enrollment projections to determine how many additional schools are necessary to serve new growth from 2007 to 2010. However, due to staffing and time constraints, New Hanover County Schools was not able to provide this information in as much detail as they would like. However, they did project one additional high school in 2009. 1. Facility Needs to 2001 . According to information contained in the New Hanover County Schools Long Range Building Program 1997-2007, two elementary, one middle and one high school are needed by 2001 to accommodate new growth. The table below contains information pertaining to capital costs, capacity and year built. 24 Tischler & Associates, Inc. Level of Service, Cost and Revenue Factors Wilmington -New Hanover County, North Carolina School Facility Needs to 2001 Wilmington -New Hanover County Facility Year Opens Capacity Cost" A Elementary School 1999 500 $7,957,560 B Elementary School 1999 500 $7,957,560 AA Middle School 2000 750 $15,792,582 AAA High School 2001 1,500 $36,575,729 '1997 dollars These facilities will be directly entered into the fiscal model and are assumed to be debt financed over 20 years at an interest rate of 6%. 2. Facility Needs 2002-2010 The Long Range Building Program also contains information pertaining to school facility needs to serve new growth past the year 2001. According to the Plan, two elementary schools, one middle school, and one high school are needed to serve new growth past 2002. Capacity and cost information are provided in the table below. School Facility Needs. 2002 to 2010 Wilmington -New Hanover County Facility Year Opens Capacity Cost" C Elementary School 2004 500 $7,957,560 D Elementary School 2007 500 $7,957,560 BB Middle School 2007 750 $15,792,582 BBB High School 2009 1,500 $36,575,729 '1997 dollars These facilities will be directly entered into the fiscal model and are assumed to be debt financed over 20 years at an interest rate of 6%. 3. Improved Level of Service An improved level of service will be reflected in implementation of the County's plan to relieve overcrowding and use of non-traditional space. This also includes upgrade, repair and modernization of existing facilities, and providing system -wide technology upgrades. The estimated cost of these improvements is $257,721,104. Bond financing will be assumed for these improvements in three equal increments of $85,907,035. Bonding for these projects will happen in 1999, 2004, and 2008, at an interest rate of 6% and a term of 20 years. 25 Tischler & Associates, Inc. Level of Service, Cost and Revenue Factors Wilmington -New Hanover County, North Carolina B. Operating Costs As stated previously, New Hanover County does allocate funds to cover a portion of New Hanover County Schools operating expenses. Since it can not be ascertained how much of the O&M and staffing costs the County will cover for a given school when it is constructed, TA will utilize an operating cost per student methodology to project future operating costs to serve new growth. The adopted FY98 New Hanover County Schools Budget includes a $31,296,258 County contribution for operating costs. When this contribution is compared to the 1997 enrollment of 21,453, the operating cost per student is $1,459. This figure will be applied on an annual basis to enrollment increases from 1997 to 2010. 26 Tischler & Associates, Inc. Level of Service, Cost and Revenue Factors Wilmington -New Hanover County, North Carolina gfi NEW HANOVER COUNTY SCHOOLS Acts ivit Allocation Amount ( A. Capital Costs 1. 1997 to 2001 Direct entry $68,283,431 2. 2002 to 2010 Direct entry $68,283,431 B. Operating Costs Cost per student $1,459 • 27 Tischler & Associates, Inc. Level of Service, Cost and Revenue Factors Wilmington -New Hanover County, North Carolina 5. CAPE FEAR COMMUNITY COLLEGE The Cape Fear Community College offers vocational, technical, pre- baccalaurate, basic skills and literacy programs, as well as continuing education services to residents of New Hanover County. For the fiscal impact analysis, TA will be measuring the cost of maintaining the existing level of service, as well as providing an improved level of service for the Community College. The improved level of service will be reflected in additional academic facility space to meet the current State system average. A. Capital Costs 1. Existing Level of Service The Cape Fear Community College Strategic Plan 1997-2017 contains an analysis of the College's space needs to 2017 to meet anticipated growth. Despite the �3 County's growth over the past twenty years, the College has only recently added buildings and properties to its campus. As a result, the College currently has a level of service of 60 square feet of academic facilities space (ASF) per FTE student, which • ranks among the most crowded of the 58 community colleges in the State system. The 1994 average for the system was 84 square feet of ASF per FTE student. The table below provides an analysis of space needs to 2010 in order for the Community College to maintain its current level of service of 60 square feet of ASF. • 28 Tischler & Associates, Inc. Level of Service, Cost and Revenue Factors Wilmington -New Hanover County, North Carolina Space Needs to Maintain current Iw5 Year Projected FTE Cum.GSF to Maintain 60 sqf. ASF/FTE 1998 3,223 0* 1999 3,545 0* 2000 3,676 0* 2001 3,812 5,954 2002 3,953 18,469 2003 4,099 31,428 2004 4,251 44,919 2005 4,408 58,854 2006 4,572 73,410 2007 4,741 88,410 2008 4,916 103,942 2009 5,098 120,096 2010 5,286 136,783 Source: Cape Fear community College *New space will come on line The Community College estimates the construction cost per square foot at $195.61 based on data contained in their proposed bond referendum. This square foot construction cost includes bricks and mortar, land, fees, contingency, etc. When this • figure re is applied to the amount of square feet needed to maintain the current level of pp q service of 60 square. feet of ASF per student, the estimated construction cost is $26,756,122. This amount will be direct entered into the fiscal model in 2005 and is assumed to be debt financed over 20 years at an interest rate of 6%. 2. Improved Level of Service • The improved level of service for the fiscal impact analysis is the current State community college system level of service of 84 square feet of ASF per student. An analysis of the additional space needs of the Community College to meet this improved level of service is provided in the table below. 29 Tischler & Associates, Inc. Level of Service, Cost and Revenue Factors Wilmington -New Hanover County, North Carolina Space Needs for Improved LOS Year Projected FTE Cum. GSF to Maintain 84 sqf. ASF/FTE 1998 3,223 68,102 1999 3,545 108,114 2000 3,676 124,392 2001 3,812 141,291 2002 3,953 158,812 2003 4,099 176,954 2004 4,251 195,842 2005 4,408 215,351 2006 4,572 235,729 2007 4,741 256,729 2008 4,916 278,475 2009 5,098 301,090 2010 5,286 324,451 Source: Cape Fear Community College When the construction cost per square foot ($195.61) is applied to the amount of square feet (324,451) needed to provide an improved level of service of 84 square feet of ASF per student, the estimated construction costs is $63,465,860. This amount will be direct entered into the fiscal model in 2005 and is assumed to be debt financed over 20 years at an interest rate of 6%. B. Operating and Maintenance Costs The County contributes General Fund dollars to the Community College to cover building operation and maintenance expenses, as well as debt service. The Community College has estimated the marginal operating cost per square foot of space at $6.87. 1. Marginal Operating Cost -Existing Level of Service In order to maintain the current level of service, it is estimated that an additional 136,783 square feet of space is needed. At $6.87 a square foot, the annual marginal operating and maintenance cost to maintain the current level of service is $939,699. This cost will be direct entered into the fiscal model beginning in 2005. 2. Marginal Operating Cost -Improved Level of Service In order to provide an improved level of service, it is estimated that an additional 324,451 square feet of space is needed. At $6.87 a square foot, the annual marginal 30 Tischler & Associates, Inc. r • • Level of Service, Cost and Revenue Factors Wilmington -New Hanover County, North Carolina • operating and maintenance cost to provide an improved level of service is $2,228,978. This cost will be direct entered into the fiscal model beginning in 2005. 31 Tischler & Associates, Inc. Level of Service, Cost and Revenue Factors Wilmington -New Hanover County, North Carolina CAPE FEAR COMMUNITY COLLEGE Activit _y Allocation Amount A. Capital Costs 1. Existing Level of Service Direct entry $26,756,122 2. Improved Level of Service Direct entry $63,465,860 B. Operating & Maintenance Costs 1. Existing Level of Service Direct entry $939,699 2. Improved Level of Service Direct entry $2,228,978 • • 32 Tischler & Associates, Inc. Level of Service, Cost and Revenue Factors Wilmington -New Hanover County, North Carolina �j 6. PUBLIC SAFETY A. Court System 1. Operating Costs Counties must provide appropriate and adequate space and furniture for those functions of the court system performed at the local level. A portion of New Hanover County's contribution to the Court System is for operating expenses included in the Clerk of the Court's budget. The County also repairs and maintains the Court System facilities through expenditures included in its Property Management Department's budget. The FY98 County contribution to the Court System totals $145,786. This contribution is expected to increase with population growth in the County. The FY98 budget is divided by the 1997 population estimate of 149,211, for a per capita cost of $0.98. 2. Capital Costs ?4 The New Hanover County Court System operates out of a 55,000 square foot facility. An 11,000 square foot addition is presently being constructed to meet existing demands on the system, for a total of 66,000 square feet. When compared to the 1997 population estimate of 149,211, the result is a ratio of .44 square feet per person. There are currently no plans for an additional expansion. However, in order for New Hanover County to maintain the current level of service for the Court System, additional space will have to be constructed in the future. Therefore, the current level of service is multiplied by the current cost to develop a square foot of Courthouse space, $115 (figure is based on Marshall & Swift Valuation Service, Good Class C Public Building, 15% was added for furnishings and contingencies). This results in a one-time capital cost per person of $50.60. B. Emergency Management The Emergency Management Department works to protect the citizens of New Hanover County from the effects of natural or technological disasters. The Department works with all County departments, municipalities and public safety agencies to insure their preparedness and ability to respond to emergency situations. The Department 33 Tischler & Associates, Inc. Level of Service, Cost and Revenue Factors Wilmington -New Hanover County, North Carolina maintains a 24-hour a day on -call status with paid and volunteer staff. The Department "-` also operates the Emergency Operations Center, coordinates two-wayradiosystems Is and follows an annual work program developed by FEMA and the North Carolina Division of Emergency Management. The FY98 County contribution to this Department totals $289,014. This budget category will remain fixed for purposes of the fiscal impact analysis, as its activities are not driven by population or employment growth, rather the number of natural or technological disasters. C. Emergency Medical Services The Emergency Medical Services (EMS) Department provides Countywide emergency medical care and transportation. County personnel serve as the primary provider of services. Crash/Rescue services are provided, through contract, by the City of Wilmington Fire Department and Ogden -New Hanover Volunteer Rescue Squad, Inc. Revenues generated from EMS fees and the New Hanover Regional Medical Center offset the operating costs of this Department. Therefore this budget will not be calculated in the fiscal impact analysis. D. Inspections The Inspections Department enforces the North Carolina State building, electrical, plumbing, mechanical, and mobile home codes in the City of Wilmington, New Hanover County, and three surrounding beach communities. The Department also enforces the local County Zoning and Flood Plain Management Ordinances and the Coastal Area Management Act regulations. The revenues the Department generates from inspection fees and citations offset the operating costs of the Department. Therefore this budget will not be calculated in the fiscal impact analysis. E. Sheriffs Department The Sheriff is the principal law enforcement officer of New Hanover County. The Sheriffs Department has an operating budget of $12,754,719. Both residential and nonresidential development will impact the future costs to provide law enforcement services to New Hanover County residents and employees. However, as the unincorporated County decreases in size due to annexation by the City of Wilmington, 34 Tischler & Associates, Inc. Level of Service, Cost and Revenue Factors Wilmington -New Hanover County, North Carolina r the demand base for patrol activities decreases as well. For purposes of the fiscal impact analysis, we will assume that as the population and employment base decreases in the unincorporated County, so too will the costs to maintain the current level of service for patrol activities. However, the Sheriff has stated to TA that annexation will not affect his patrol budget, as he feels it is currently understaffed. If this scenario were to occur, it would result in an increase in the Sheriffs level of service. For purposes of the fiscal impact analysis, TA will measure the decrease in costs to maintain the current level of service. The methodologies used to project the operating and capital costs are described in the sections below. 1. Operating Costs Based on the FY98 budget, the Sheriffs Department budget is divided into the following six divisions: 1) Support Services, 2) Custody, 3) 911 Center, 4) Vice and Narcotics, 5) Uniform Patrol, and 6) Detective Division. The table below shows the estimated FY98 operating costs and percentage for each division. FY98 Sheriff Department Budget New Hanover County Division Budget Percent Support Services $1,686,376 13% Custody/Jail $4,011,266 31 % 911 Center $2,062,135 16% Vice $825,164 6% Patrol $3,262,172 26% Detectives $907,606 7% $12,754,719 100% a. Support Services The Support Services Division includes Administration, Civil and Records Sections, Front Desk, Personnel and Purchasing. The Civil Section serves all Civil Process (Civil Summons, Magistrates Summons, Show Cause Orders, Evictions, and Domestic Violence Orders), collects money judgements on Executions, and seizes property under Attachments and Claim and Deliveries. The Records Section processes pistol permit applications, concealed weapons permit applications and maintains a computer records system. The FY98 budget for this Division totals $1,686,376. From this amount is deducted revenues of $127,200, for a net budget of $1,559,176. Since 35 Tischler & Associates, Inc. Level of Service, Cost and Revenue Factors Wilmington -New Hanover County, North Carolina this Division contains some administrative functions, costs are expected to increase on a partial cost basis, estimated at 50%. The FY98 budget of is multiplied by 50% and is then divided the 1997 population estimate of 149,211, for a per capita cost of $5.22. b. 911 Center The 911 Center is responsible for answering calls and dispatching personnel and equipment for emergency assistance for City and County fire service, ambulance assistance, and sheriff patrols. The FY98 budget for the 911 Center totals $2,062,135. Deducted from this amount is $400,000 in revenue from the Emergency Telephone System Fund, for a net County contribution of $1,662,135. As the number of residents and jobs increase in the County, so too will 911 activities. This budget is projected to be impacted on a partial cost basis, estimated at 25%, as increased activity will be offset by computer automation for dispatch functions. The FY98 County contribution of $1,677,305 is multiplied by 25% and is then divided by the 1997 population and employment estimate of 207,751, for a per capita and employment cost of $2.02. C. Custody Division The Custody Division is responsible for the County Jail and the operations of the Transportation Unit and Court Bailiff Section. The FY98 budget for this Division totals $4,011,266. Deducted from this amount is $1,604,339 in revenues from various sources including Court Facility fees, Jail fees and Officer fees, for net budget of $2,406,927. This budget is projected to increase with additional population growth in the County. The FY98 net budget is divided by the 1997 population estimate of 149,211, for a per capita cost of $16.13. d. Patrol The Patrol Division consists of four Patrol squads, a K-9 squad, a Special Operations squad, a Crime Prevention unit and a Warrant squad, totaling 70 sworn deputies. The Patrol budget will increase based on calls for service. The table below contains breaking and entering calls for service for 1997. These calls for service are the only ones that could be provided based on residential versus nonresidential location. The 58% residential/42% nonresidential distribution is assumed to be an accurate proxy for overall calls for service in the County. 36 Tischler & Associates, Inc. 0 Level of Service, Cost and Revenue Factors Wilmington -New Hanover County, North Carolina • 0 Calls for Service, 1997 New Hanover Countv. North Carolina Location Calls Percent Residential Nonresidential 598 426 58% 42% Total 1,024 100% Source: New Hanover County Sheriffs Office The table below breaks out the residential portion (58%) of the Patrol Division budget based on calls for service. The residential portion is then divided by the existing population and then multiplied by the household size by type of unit to obtain a cost per unit factor. This factor will then be used to project the decrease in costs to maintain the current level of service. Patrol Division Residential Land Use Factors New Hanover County Sheriffs Office FY98 Budget $3,262,172 Existing Pop. Residential Portion (58%)* $1,892,060. Per Capita Cost Household Cost per Land Use Size** Unit Single Family 2.65 $33.60 DuplexiTownhouse 2.23 $28.28 Apartment 1.86 $23.59 Mobile Homes 2.32 $29.42 *Based on calls for service data provided by the Sheriffs Office **Based on an analysis of 1990 Census Data 149,211 $12.68 The nonresidential methodology allocates the nonresidential portion (42%) of the Patrol Division budget, which totals $1,370,112. The nonresidential portion of the budget is allocated by type of nonresidential land use. Since specific records for calls for service by land use type is not available, trips by type of nonresidential land use are utilized as a realistic proxy. This methodology indicates that the greatest calls for service on a per square foot basis are for retail, then office and then flex. The table below summarizes the nonresidential vehicle trips on an average weekday in New Hanover County. 37 Tischler & Associates, Inc. Level of Service, Cost and Revenue Factors Wilmington -New Hanover County, North Carolina Nonresidential Vehicle Trips on an Average Weekday New Hanover County, North Carolina Nonresidential Gross Floor Area (Sq. Ft. x 1, 000) Assumptions Retail/Shopping Center 11,468 Office 3,654 Flex 6,930 Average Weekday Vehicle Trips Ends per 1,000 Sq. Ft." Retail/Shopping Center 53.22 Office 15.59 Flex 3.82 Nonresidential Vehicle Trips on an Average Weekday Retail/Shopping Center 195,298 Office 28,479 Flex 13,237 Total 237,014 'Trip Rates are from Trip Generation (Institute of Transportation Engineers,1997. Trip rates assume community scale shopping center in the 200,000 sq. ft. range, office in the 50,000 sq. ft. range and manufacturing. Trip Factors I Average Weekday Vehicle Trip Ends are from the reference book, Trip Generation, published by the Institute of Transportation Engineers (6th Edition, 1997). A "trip end" represents a vehicle either entering or exiting a development. Trip rates have been adjusted to avoid over estimating the number of actual trips because one vehicle trip is counted in the trip rates of both the origination and destination points. A simple factor of 50% has been applied to Office and Flex categories. The Retail/Shopping Center category has a trip factor of less than 50% because this type of development attracts vehicles as they pass -by on arterial and collector roads. For example, when someone stops at a convenience store on their way home from work, the convenience store is not their primary destination. The ITE manual indicates that on average 37% of the vehicles entering shopping centers are passing by on the way to some other primary destination and 63% of the attraction trips have the shopping centers as their primary destination. Therefore, the adjusted trip factor is 32% (0.63 x 0.50). Based on the 237,014 average daily trips and the nonresidential operating cost for the Patrol Division of $1,370,112 (42% of $3,262,172), the operating cost per nonresidential vehicle trip is $5.78. This level of service standard is then multiplied by the associated nonresidential trip ends and trip factors to derive the nonresidential 38 Tischler & Associates, Inc. • Level of Service, Cost and Revenue Factors , Wilmington -New Hanover County, North Carolina factor decrease for the Patrol Division as the unincorporated County decreases as a result of annexation. Nonresidential Land Use Factors for Patrol Division Operating Costs New Hanover County, North Carolina Nonresidential Weekday Vehide Trips per 1,000 Sq. Ft. Standards Trip Factors Retail/Shopping Center 53.22 32% Offer 15.59 50% Flex 3.82 50% Level of Service Standards Nonresidential Operating Costs (42%x $3,262,172) $1,370,112 Nonresidential Vehicle Trips 237,014 Operating Cost per Vehicle Trip $5.78 Operating Costs Per 1,000 sq. ff. Per Employee* Retail/Shopping Center $98.45 $39.38 Office $45.06 $11.49 Flex $11.04 $6.00 -Based on 400 square feet per retail employee, 255 square feet per office employee and 543 square feet per flex employee e. Detective Division The Detective Division consists of 20 sworn deputies and is responsible for • investigation of criminal cases and crime scene analysis. Since criminal investigations are related to calls for service, as calls increase, investigations can be expected to increase proportionately. The table below breaks out the residential portion (58%) of the Detective Division budget based on calls for service. The residential portion of $526,411 is then divided by the existing population and then multiplied by the household size by type of unit to obtain a cost per unit factor. This factor will then be used to project decreases in Detective Division costs as a result of City annexation. Detective Division Residential Land Use Factors New Hanover County Sheriffs Office FY98 Budget $907,606 Existing Pop. 149,211 Residential Portion (58%)* $526,411 Per Capita Cost $3.53 Household Cost per Land Use Size** Unit Single Family 2.65 $9.35 Duplex/Townhouse 2.23 $7.87 Apartment 1.86 $6.56 Mobile Homes 2.32 $8.18 *Based on calls for service data provided by the Sheriffs Office **Based on an analysis of 1990 Census Data 39 Tischler & Associates, Inc. Level of Service, Cost and Revenue Factors Wilmington -New Hanover County, North Carolina The nonresidential methodology allocates the nonresidential portion (42%) of the Detective Division budget, which totals $381,195. As was the case for the Patrol Division, the nonresidential portion of the budget is allocated by type of nonresidential land use. This methodology indicates that the greatest calls for service on a per square foot basis are for retail, then office and the flextindustrial. The table below summarizes the nonresidential vehicle trips on an average weekday in New Hanover County. Nonresidential Vehicle Trips on an Average Weekday New Hanover County, North Carolina Nonresidential Gross Floor Area (Sq. Ft. x 1,000) Retail/Shopping Center Office Flex Average Weekday Vehicle Trips Ends per 1,000 Sq. Ft.* Retail/Shopping Center Office Flex Assumptions 11,468 3,654 6,930 Trip Factors 53.22 32% 15.59 50% 3.82 50% Nonresidential Vehicle Trips on an Average Weekday Retail/Shopping Center 195,298 Office 28,479 Flex 13,237 Total 237,014 'Trip Rates are from Trip Generation (Institute of Transportation Engineers, 1997. Trip rates assume community scale shopping center in the 200,000 sq. ft. range, office in the 50,000 sq. ft. range and manufacturing. Based on the 237,014 average daily trips and the nonresidential operating cost for the Detective Division of $381,195 (42% of $907,606), the operating cost per nonresidential vehicle trip is $1.61. This level of service standard is then multiplied by the associated nonresidential trip ends and trip factors to derive the nonresidential factor decrease for the Detective Division as a result of City annexation. 40 Tischler & Associates, Inc. • • Level of Service, Cost and Revenue Factors Wilmington -New Hanover County, North Carolina Nonresidential Land Use Factors for Detective Division Operating Costs ` •' New Hanover County, North Carolina Nonresidential Weekday Vehicle Trips per 1, 000 Sq. Ft. Standards Trip Factors Retail/Shopping Center 53.22 32% Office 15.59 50% Flex 3.82 50% Level of Service Standards Nonresidential Operating Costs (42% x $907,606) $381,195 Nonresidential Vehicle Trips 237,014 Operating Cost per Vehicle Trip $1.61 Operating Costs Per 1,000 sq. ft. Per Employee* Retail/Shopping Center $27.39 $10.96 Offer $12.54 $3.20 Flex $3.07 $1.67 *Based on 400 square feet per retail employee, 255 square feet per office employee and 543 square feet per flex employee f. Vice and Narcotics Division The Vice and Narcotics Division provides proactive drug enforcement throughout the County. The Division totals 16 deputies and has an operating budget of $825,164. As the population of the County increases, so too will the activities of the Vice and Narcotics Division. The FY98 budget of $825,164 is divided by the 1997 population estimate of 249,211, for a per capita increase of $5.53. 2. Capital Costs a. Jail For the New Hanover County Jail, a one-time cost per capita methodology will be used, since there are no planned expansions of the current facility. The New Hanover County Jail has 33,668 square feet of space in the Main Jail and 1,815 square feet of space in the Jail Annex, for a total of 35,483 square feet. When this is compared to the current population of 149,211, the resulting level of service is .237 square feet per capita. With no recent construction projects from which to base a capital cost per square foot of jail space, TA utilized the Marshall & Swift Valuation Service to estimate a capital cost of $91.98 per square foot of jail space. This estimate used an Average Class C Government Building, with a 20% multiplier for land. When the capital cost per square foot is applied to the .237 square foot per capita standard, the capital cost per capita is $20.76. 41 Tischler & Associates, Inc. Level of Service, Cost and Revenue Factors Wilmington -New Hanover County, North Carolina b. Sheriffs Deputy Equipment The table below shows all the one-time costs associated with a new deputy sheriff, as well as vehicle costs. One time costs include radio and related equipment, weapon and ammunition, as well as uniforms and related equipment. The County currently has 100 vehicles for 111 deputy sheriffs involved in patrol, civil, vice and investigative functions. This is a ratio of 1 vehicle for every 1.11 deputy sheriff. Vehicles are assumed to have a useful life of five years. Capital Equipment Costs New Hanover County Sheriffs Office Item Cost Uniforms & Equipment" $1,872 4 Door Sedan*" $21,500 Equipment $1,500 Total $24,872 `One-time cost **Useful life of five years According to the most recent information (1997) provided by the Sheriffs Office, the Sheriff received 53,383 calls for service in FY97. When this is compared to the 1997 population and employment total in the County of 207,751, there were .26 calls for service for every resident and job in the County. Given the current 111 deputy sheriffs involved in patrol, civil, vice and investigative functions, there is an average of 481 calls for service per deputy. Therefore, for purposes of the fiscal impact analysis, a new deputy sheriff with an associated one-time capital cost of $1,872 will be incurred by the County for each additional 481 calls for service. In addition, for every 1.11 officers a capital cost of $23,000 will be incurred by the County for a patrol vehicle with a useful life of five years. • 42 Tischler & Associates, Inc. Level of Service, Cost and Revenue Factors Wilmington -New Hanover County, North Carolina ' PUBLIC SAFETY Activit A. Court Syst 1. Ope 2. Capi B. Emergency C. Emergency D. Inspection E. Sheriffs D 1. Operatin a. Sup b. 911 c. Cust d. Patro e. Dete f. Vice 2. Capital a. Jail b. Equi Allocation Amount ern rating Costs Per capita $0.98 tal Costs One-time per capita $50.60 Management Fixed N/A Medical Services N/A See text s N/A See text epartment g Costs port Services Per capita $5.22 Center Per capita & emp. $2.02 ody Division Per capita $16.13 I Per unit/nonres. trip See text ctive Per unit/nonres. trip See text & Narcotics Per capita $5.53 Costs One-time per capita $20.76 pment Direct entry See text 43 Tischler & Associates, Inc. Level of Service, Cost and Revenue Factors Wilmington -New Hanover County, North Carolina 7. GENERAL FUND REVENUES A. Ad Valorem Tax Ad Valorem Tax is a tax on real property and vehicles based on the value of the property as a marketable item. Real property includes land, buildings, and items permanently affixed to land or buildings. The market value of the land is established by an appraisal, which must be carried out by the County every eight years. A tax rate is established by the County Commissioners for each fiscal year. The current tax rate is $0.665 per $100 dollars of assessed value. For purposes of the fiscal impact analysis, a 100% collection rate is assumed. For the fiscal impact analysis, TA's FISCALS software will calculate Ad Valorem Taxes from new development by multiplying the tax and assessment rates by the average market values. The average market values for new construction are shown in the table below. Market Values of New Construction Citv of Wilminaton/New Hanover County Unit City Phase I Phase II Phase III County Single Family* $146,862 $356,616 $222,738 $205,063 $159,398 Duplexrrownhome* $93,712 $113,502 $113,502 $113,502 $143,120 Apartment** $61,969 $61,969 $61,969 $61,969 $61,969 Retail (per sq. ft.)** $71.38 $71.38 $71.38 $71.38 $67.36 Office (per sq. ft.)** $67.94 $67.94 $67.94 $67.94 $64.28 Flex (per sq. ft.)** $34.12 $34.12 $34.12 $34.12 $21.47 'Source: New Hanover County Board of Realtors **Source: Marshall & Swift valuation Service The number of registered vehicles in the County totals 115,559 in FY98 and comprises an assessable base of $841,320,128. When the number of vehicles is compared to the total value, the result is an average value per vehicle of $7,280. And when the number of vehicles is compared to the 1997 population of 149,211, there are .77 vehicles per capita. For the fiscal impact analysis, TA's software will forecast additional vehicles at the rate of .77 per capita as population increases in the County. The current assessment rate will be applied to the average value per vehicle of $7,280. B. Ad Valorem Interest Interest on Ad Valorem Taxes is charged for property taxes not paid on time. Interest of 3/4 of one percent is charged beginning the first day of each month following 44 Tischler & Associates, Inc. • • Level of Service, Cost and Revenue Factors Wilmington -New Hanover County, North Carolina the tax due date until paid. This revenue source totals $230,000 in FY98. Since a 100% collection rate is assumed for ad valorem taxes, this revenue source will remain fixed in the fiscal impact analysis. C. Real Property Transfer Tax The Real Property Transfer Tax is an excise tax on each deed or other instrument by which real property is conveyed. Although this tax is levied by the State of North Carolina, the proceeds go directly to the New Hanover County government. The tax rate is $.50 for each $500 of the sale price. This tax will be treated as a one- time revenue and will be applied toward the projected number of housing units and non- residential square feet added in year 2010 of the fiscal impact analysis. D. One -Half Cent Sales Tax Fund Sales Tax includes two local option half -cent sales taxes. The taxes are collected by the State of North Carolina on retail sales or leases of tangible personal - property. These funds are returned to the County by the State. North Carolina Statutes irequire that 30 percent of Article 40 and 60 percent of Article 42 taxes be used for County public school capital expenditures. In FY98, the undesignated portions of these revenues have been transferred to the Environmental Fund and Water and Sewer District. For purposes of the fiscal analysis, it is assumed that the restricted portions of these revenues are used to retire School bonded debt. It is further assumed that the unrestricted portions continue to be designated for Water and Sewer Fund and Environmental Fund activities and are therefore not available for General Fund activities. A retail square footage projection methodology will be used for each of the sales tax revenue sources. This methodology utilizes information contained in Dollars & Cents of Shopping Centers, published by the Urban Land Institute, and assumes that every additional square foot of retail space added in the County generates sales of $191.63 annually (A neighborhood scale shopping center prototype was assumed). E. Beer and Wine Tax Beer and Wine Tax is an excise tax levied by the State on the sale of beer and wine at the wholesale level. Counties and cities, in which beverages are sold and 45 Tischler & Associates, Inc. Level of Service, Cost and Revenue Factors Wilmington -New Hanover County, North Carolina taxed, may share in the proceeds of the tax on a per capita basis. This revenue source totals $274 000 in FY98 and isj projected to increa se ase with population. The FY98 revenue total is divided by the 1997 population estimate of 149,211, for a per capita increase of $1.84. F. Alcoholic Beverage Control (ABC) Revenues 1. 5-Cent Bottle Charge The 5-cent per bottle revenue is turned over by the County to Southeastern Center and .must be spent for alcohol abuse treatment or research. This revenue source totals $66,000 in FY98. Since this is essentially a "pass through" revenue, it will not be factored in the fiscal analysis. 2. Other ABC Revenues Other ABC revenues consist of the following ABC charges: (1) 3.5 percent add - on, (2) additional 5-cent per bottle, and (3) mixed beverage (liquor by the drink). The County also receives distribution of ABC net profits. The FY98 total for these revenue sources is $846,100 and is projected to increase with population. The FY98 revenue total is divided by the 1997 population estimate of 149,211, for a per capita increase of $5.67. G. Cable Franchise Fees This revenue source is a franchise fee that is charged to each cable television account in the County. The FY98 revenue total amounts to $334,000, which is expected to increase with additional residential development. The FY98 revenue total is divided by the FY98 dwelling unit estimate of 60,894, for a per dwelling increase of $5.48. H. Intergovernmental Revenue Several departments offset a portion of their operating expenditures with grants and transfers from Federal and State Governments. This revenue source totals $21,827,280 in FY98. For purposes of the fiscal impact analysis, these revenues have been netted out of the appropriate operating budgets. 46 Tischler & Associates, Inc. Level of Service, Cost and Revenue Factors Wilmington -New Hanover County, North Carolina I. User Fees IW are fees charged to direct users of selected County services. User Fees g Examples of these fees include Library fines, Inspection fees, Dog and Cat License fees, etc. For purposes of the fiscal impact analysis, these Fees are netted out of the appropriate operating budget. J. Intangibles Tax The Intangibles Tax is a hold harmless reimbursement paid by the State to the County to replace tax revenues lost from the 1995 repeal of the North Carolina Intangibles Tax. The FY98 revenue includes $2,430,000 for intangibles reimbursement and $2,000,000 in tax, based on prior years actual receipts. The $2,430,000 reimbursement will remain fixed in the fiscal impact analysis while the $2,000,000 tax revenue is anticipated to increase with additional employment. The FY98 variable amount of $2,000,000 is divided by the 1997 employment estimate of 58,540, for a per employee increase of $34.16 0 K. Other General Government Revenues • These revenues include Food Stamp Sales Tax Reimbursement, Sale of Fixed Assets, Rental Income, Tax Collection Fees, Marriage License Fees, etc. These revenues total $1,659,754 in FY98 and are projected to increase with population, although at a semivariable rate estimated at 25%. The FY98 revenue total is multiplied times 25% and then divided by the 1997 population estimate of 149,211, for a partial per capita increase of $2.78. L. Interest on Investments This revenue source is interest earned on County funds invested. According to North Carolina laws, to maximize the return between the time funds are collected and used. This revenue source totals $1,900,000 in FY98. For purposes of the fiscal impact analysis, this revenue is assumed to remain the same percentage of property tax revenues in 2010 (2.0%) as it is in FY98. 47 Tischler & Associates, Inc. Level of Service, Cost and Revenue Factors Wilmington -New Hanover County, North Carolina M. Appropriated Fund Balance • In accordance with the Local Government Fiscal Control Act, the County may use some unexpended funds from previous years to balance the budget. This revenue source totals $156,325 in FY98 and will remain fixed in the fiscal impact analysis. • 0 48 Tischler & Associates, Inc. Level of Service, Cost and Revenue Factors Wilmington -New Hanover County, North Carolina GENERAL FUND REVENUES Revenue Allocation Amount A. Ad Valorem Tax Market Value $0.665 per $100 value B. Ad Valorem Interest Not factored See text C. Real Properly Transfer Tax Market Value $0.50 per $500 D. One -Half Cent Sales Tax Fund Square feet $172.58 E. Beer and Wine Tax Per capita $1.84 F. ABC Revenues 1. 5 Cent Bottle Charge Not factored See text 2. Other ABC Revenues Per capita $5.67 G. Cable Franchise Fees Per Unit $5.48 H. Intergovernmental Revenue Net out N/A I. User Fees Net out N/A J. Intangibles Tax Per employee $34.16 K. Other General Government Revenues Per capita $2.78 L. Interest of Investments % of budget 2.0% M. Appropriated Fund Balance Fixed • 49 Tischler & Associates, Inc. Level of Service, Cost and Revenue Factors Wilmington -New Hanover County, North Carolina 8. NEW HANOVER COUNTY FIRE DISTRICT Fire protection in the unincorporated portion of New Hanover County is provided by the Special Fire District Fund. This Fund is a special revenue fund used to account for a special tax in New Hanover County's Fire District. This District was established in 1986 to provide funds to volunteer fire departments in the unincorporated areas of the County. The Fire District property tax rate for property owners within the service district is $2.5 cents per $100 value. The Fire Services Administration conducts activities involving fire prevention, code enforcement, fire safety education, fire scene investigation, and coordinates the contractual fire protection services of volunteer fire departments. A. Impact on Volunteer Fire Departments 1. Fire District Revenue Loss a. Phase I Annexation Area The tax valuation of the property to be annexed is $1,056,953,052. Annexation of this property will result in annual property tax revenue loss of $264,238 to the New Hanover County Fire District, assuming a tax rate of $2.5 cents. b. Phase II Annexation Area The tax valuation of the property to be annexed is $589,476,123. Annexation of this property will result in annual property tax revenue loss of $147,369 to the New Hanover County Fire District, assuming a tax rate of $2.5 cents. c Phase III Annexation Area The tax valuation of the property to be annexed is $535,353,211. Annexation of this property will result in annual property tax revenue loss of $133,838 to the New Hanover County Fire District, assuming a tax rate of $2.5 cents. d. Urban County The tax valuation of the property to be annexed is $1,062,753,299. Annexation of this property will result in annual property tax revenue loss of $265,688 to the New Hanover County Fire District, assuming a tax rate of $2.5 cents. • 50 Tischler & Associates, Inc. Level of Service, Cost and Revenue Factors Wilmington -New Hanover County, North Carolina • 2. Supplemental Service Contracts According to North Carolina State Law, when a City annexes County land it must either contract with the County volunteer fire departments in an annexation area to provide supplemental services to the annexed area or be responsible for paying a proportionate share of the current department debt. For purposes of the fiscal analysis, it is assumed that the City enters into supplemental service contracts. The table below shows the estimated annual contract amounts for each area and the year the contract begins. The Phase I and II annexation studies provide estimates for the annual amounts of these contracts. The contract amounts for the Phase I and II areas are used as proxies for the Phase III and Urban portions of the County. 4 Volunteer Fire Supplemental Service Contract Revenue Area Year Cost Phase I Annexation 1998 $132,706 Phase II Annexation 1998 $74,540 Phase III Annexation 1998 $132,706 Urban Count 2010 $207,246 NEW HANOVER COUNTY WATER AND SEWER DISTRICT The New Hanover County Water and Sewer District was established in 1983. The District includes all unincorporated areas within New Hanover County. Approximately 70,000 people live in the District's service area. The District currently provides service to approximately 20,800 customers (residential and commercial). The FY98 budget for the District totals $9,478,233. For reasons documented in a separate memo entitled "City/County Sewer and Water Issues", this enterprise fund is not reflected in the fiscal impact analysis. This memorandum can be found in Appendix II of this document. 51 Tischler & Associates, Inc. Level of Service, Cost and Revenue Factors Wilmington -New Hanover County, North Carolina 10. ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT FUND The Environmental Management Fund is used to account for the operations of the County Landfill. Environmental Management operations total $12,439,493 in FY98 and are funded primarily through tipping fees. In FY98 the County General Fund contributed $2.8 million to this Fund. If legislation is enacted to permitting governments to mandate use of specific disposal sites for local solid waste, this General Fund transfer will not be necessary. Based on conversations had with City and County staff regarding this activity, it was decided not to factor this fund in the fiscal analysis, given it is an enterprise fund operation. • 52 Tischler & Associates, Inc. Level of Service, Cost and Revenue Factors Wilmington -New Hanover County, North Carolina • 111. URBAN SERVICE AREA For the Urban service area, the fiscal analysis will measure the cost of providing a City level of service to the City and the Phase I, II, and III annexation areas in 1998. For 2010, the fiscal analysis will also measure the cost of providing a City level of service to the Urbanized portion of the County. The City's revenue structure will be used where City costs are used. 1. GENERAL GOVERNMENT A. City Council The seven -member City Council is the official legislative and policy -making body of the City of Wilmington. The FY98 budget for the City Council is $131,230. According to the Annexation Studies prepared by the City, additional population and employment growth is not anticipated to substantially impact this budget. This budget will remain fixed in the fiscal impact analysis. B. City Clerk Appointed by the City Council to a two-year term, the City Clerk acts as official record keeper for the City. The City Clerk records minutes of all Council meetings, certifies ordinances and resolutions adopted by the City Council, maintains files of deed and contractual transactions, manages the codification of ordinances, as well as many other duties. The FY98 budget for the City Clerk is $92,960. As is the case with the City Council, this budget will remain fixed in the fiscal impact analysis. C. City Manager The City Manager directs and coordinates the services delivered by City agencies. The FY98 budget for this Department totals $540,440. It is estimated, based on the Annexation Studies prepared by the City, that a Program Specialist, at a cost of $32,980, is needed to serve as a public information officer for the City. In addition, operating costs are expected to increase by an additional $1,000. These costs will be direct entered into the fiscal impact model. le 53 Tischler & Associates, Inc. Level of Service, Cost and Revenue Factors Wilmington -New Hanover County, North Carolina D. City Attorney The City Attorney's Office represents the City in all suits for and in behalf of the City. The City Attorney also represents the City in administrative proceedings with other governmental agencies relating to unemployment compensation, employment claims, environmental issues and other matters. The FY98 budget for this Department totals $374,040. It is estimated, based on the Annexation Studies prepared by the City, that one additional Paralegal, at a cost of $34,720, will be needed to assist with acquisition of property as needed for extending City services in Phase I area. Operating costs are projected to increase by an additional $12,500. This cost will be used as a proxy for the Phase III area and Urban County, respectively. These costs will be directly entered into the fiscal impact model. cityAttorne Costs to 2010 Area Year Cost Phase I Annexation 1998 $47,220 Phase II Annexation 1998 N/A Phase III Annexation 1998 $47,220 Urban County 2010 1 $47,220 Source: City of Wilmington Annexation Studies/City Staff E. Human Resource Management The Office of Human Resource Management provides comprehensive services to all City departments to support effective management of the workforce. Functional areas include recruitment, classification, compensation, and benefits administration, personnel record management, training and employee relations. The FY98 budget for this Department totals $392,900. It is estimated, based on the Annexation Studies prepared by the City and conversations with City`staff, that two Personnel Analysts, at a cost of $35,080, will be needed to support the additional personnel associated with providing City services to the Phase I and II areas. Operating costs are projected to increase by an additional $6,000. These costs are projected to be incurred again to provide service in the Phase III area and Urban County. These costs will be direct entered into the fiscal impact model. 54 Tischler & Associates, Inc. • • Level of Service, Cost and Revenue Factors Wilmington -New Hanover County, North Carolina • Human Resource Mana ement Costs to 2010 Area Year Cost Phase I Annexation 1998 $41,080 Phase II Annexation 1998 N/A Phase III Annexation 1998 $41,080 Urban County 1 2010 1 $41,080 Source: City of Wilmington Annexation Studies/City Staff F. Finance The Finance Department supports all City operations through the accounting and payroll systems. The Finance Department is responsible for compliance to laws governing the City's fiscal practices and for financial reporting related to statutory requirements and generally accepted accounting principles. The FY98 budget for this Department totals $1,410,090. It is estimated, based on the Annexation Studies prepared by the City and conversations with City staff, that an Account Clerk and Customer Service Clerk, at a cost $82,340, will be needed in each annexation area and the urban county, primarily to provide billing and collection services for the new water and sewer customers.. Operating costs are projected to increase by an additional $100,000 in each area, primarily due to increased tax collection costs. These costs will be direct entered into the fiscal impact model. CityFinance Costs to 2010 Area Year Cost Phase I Annexation 1998 $182,340 Phase II Annexation 1998 $182,340 Phase III Annexation 1998 $182,340 Urban County 1 2010 $182,340 Source: City of Wilmington Annexation Studies/City Staff G. Administrative Services Administrative Services is comprised of three divisions: Budget, Management Information Systems, and Central Services. The Budget Division prepares and monitors the annual City budget, providing financial forecasts and other management analyses. The Management Information Systems Division provides data processing services through mainframe and personal computer systems. The Central Services Division includes centralized purchasing, contracting, and warehousing functions, as 55 Tischler & Associates, Inc. Level of Service, Cost and Revenue Factors Wilmington -New Hanover County, North Carolina well as management, maintenance, and replacement of the City's fleet of vehicles and other rolling stock. The FY98 Budget for this Department totals $1 326 890. It is 9 p estimated, based on the Annexation Studies prepared by the City and conversations with City staff, that Phase I annexation will increase operating costs by $54,998 as a result of the need for one Computer Specialist ($27,030), and one Automotive Mechanic ($22,968), and operating costs of $5,000. Phase II annexation is expected to increase operating costs by $22,882 (one Clerk Typist at $18,782 and operating costs of $4,100). Phase I and II costs will be used as a proxies for the Phase III area and the urban County. These costs will be directly entered into the fiscal impact model. Administrative Services Costs to 2010 Area Year Cost Phase I Annexation 1998 $54,998 Phase 11 Annexation 1998 $22,882 Phase III Annexation 1998 $54,998 Urban County 1 20101 $22,882 Source: City of Wilmington Annexation Studies/City Staff H. Development Services The level of activity in Development Services will continue to increase as the Wilmington area grows. The Department will meet this demand through improved customer service, expanded use of computer technology and streamlined department operations. The creation, of the Development Review Division in FY99 combines all of the development related functions within one unit. These functions were Dreviousiv spread across the three existing divisions. Key features of this new unit include the Development Center, offering one -stop shopping for development activities and Project Specialists to track developments throughout the process. 1. Planning The Planning Division mission is to work with citizens to provide positive, comprehensive, and visionary community planning assistance to improve the quality of life in the City. The Division provides staff support to City Boards and Commissions, including the City Council, Planning Commission, Historic District Commission and Board of Adjustment. In addition, the Division provides long range planning assistance to the community. The FY98 Budget for this Division is $691,150. It is estimated, based on the Annexation Studies prepared by the City and conversations with City staff, • 56 Tischler & Associates, Inc. Level of Service, Cost and Revenue Factors Wilmington -New Hanover County, North Carolina 1 that Phase 1 annexation will increase operating costs by $91,900, as a result of the need for an additional Planner II ($31,975), Code Enforcement Officer ($29,375), Clerk Typist ($18,775) and operating costs of $7,700. It is estimated that Phase II annexation will increase operating costs by $32,343, as a result of the need for an additional Planner. Phase I annexation costs will be used as a proxy for the Phase III and Urban County areas, respectively. These costs will be directly entered into the fiscal impact model. Pla ning Costs to 2010 Area Year Cost Phase I Annexation 1998 $91,900 Phase II Annexation 1998 $32,343 Phase III Annexation 1998 $91,900 Urban County 20101 $91,900 Source: City of Wilmington Annexation Studies/City Staff 2. Engineering The Engineering Division provides design and construction management for capital projects, administers a stormwater management program, and reviews subdivision plans. The FY98 budget for this Division totals $1,212,120. It is estimated, based on the Annexation Studies prepared by the City and conversations with City staff, that Phase I annexation will increase operating costs by $166,700, as a result of the need for one Transportation Planner ($30,360), two Engineer Technicians ($53,720), one Construction Inspector ($26,860), one Clerk Typist ($19,760) and operating costs of $36,000 to support the additional Engineering activities associated with providing City services to new areas. It is estimated that Phase II annexation will increase operating costs by $203,019, as a result of the need for an two Engineers ($75,831), two surveyors ($53,180), a Construction Inspector ($28,608) and operating costs of $45,400. Phase 1 and 11 annexation costs will be used as proxies for the Phase III and Urban County areas, respectively. These costs will be directly entered into the fiscal impact model. En i eering Costs to 2010 Area Year Cost Phase I Annexation 1998 $166,700 Phase II Annexation 1998 $203,019 Phase III Annexation 1998 $166,700 Urban County 1 2010 $203,019 Source: City of Wilmington Annexation Studies/City Staff 57 Tischler & Associates, Inc. Level of Service, Cost and Revenue Factors Wilmington -New Hanover County, North Carolina 3. Community Development The Community Development Division provides code enforcement, neighborhood improvement and housing programs to City residents. The FY98 budget totals $771,830. It is estimated, based on the Annexation Studies prepared by the City and conversations with City staff, that Phase l annexation will not result in additional operating costs for the City. It is estimated that the Phase II annexation area will increase City operating costs by $50,993, as a result of the need for one Code Enforcement Officer ($32,343) and operating costs of $18,650. Operating costs are projected to increase by an additional $18,650. Phase 1 and 11 annexation costs will be used as proxies for the Phase III and Urban County areas, respectively. These costs will be direct entered into the fiscal impact model. Community Development Costs to 2010 Area Year Cost Phase I Annexation 1998 N/A Phase II Annexation 1998 $50,993 Phase III Annexation 1998 N/A Urban County 2010 1 $50,993 Source: City of Wilmington Annexation Studies/City Staff I. Sundry Appropriations 1. Non -Departmental This budget covers miscellaneous City expenditures for items such as expenses for City memberships in professional organizations, cost of the annual audit, City contributions for medical insurance for retirees, and allowance for continuing costs of cleanup of waste sites, as may be required by EPA. These expenditures total $432,060 in FY98 and are not expected to be impacted by growth. Therefore, this budget will remain fixed in the fiscal impact analysis. 2 Payment to Other Agencies The City provides funding to outside agencies whom provide services consistent with the City's objectives. This leveraging of dollars with volunteer efforts and other revenue sources increases the community services offered to citizens. The FY98 budget for these contributions total $534,010. As the population increases in the City, so too will contributions to other agencies, in order to maintain the current level of 58 Tischler & Associates,. Inc. • 0 s Level of Service,. Cost and Revenue Factors Wilmington -New Hanover County, North Carolina service. The FY98 budget of $534,010 is divided by the 1997 population estimate of 64,164, for a per capita cost of $8.32. 59 Tischler & Associates, Inc. Level of Service, Cost and Revenue Factors Wilmington -New Hanover County, North Carolina -�3 GENERAL GOVERNMENT Activity Allocation Amount A. City Council Fixed N/A B. City Clerk Fixed N/A C. City Manager Fixed N/A D. City Attorney Direct entry See text E. Human Resource Management Direct entry See text F. Finance Direct entry See text G. Administrative Services Direct entry See text H. Development Service 1. Planning Direct entry See text 2. Engineering Direct entry See text 3. Community Development Direct entry See text I. Sundry Appropriations 1. Non -Departmental Fixed N/A 2. Payments to Other Agencies Per capita $8.32 7_1 60 Tischler & Associates, Inc. Level of Service, Cost and Revenue Factors Wilmington -New Hanover County, North Carolina 2. POLICE The Wilmington Police Department utilizes community -policing tactics to promote safe neighborhoods and reduce the fear of crime. The Police Department is structured in four divisions: Administration, Criminal Investigations, Community Policing, and Support Services. As part of the Phase I and II Annexation Studies prepared by the City of Wilmington, the cost to extend Police service was evaluated. In these studies, the present level of service for Patrol and Investigation activities was reflected in sworn officers per 1,000 residents. For these functions, TA has utilized a methodology that projects costs by type of land use, using trip generation rates and calls for service information. This methodology provides a more accurate picture of the present cost structure. For example, if the City were to lose population over a 5-year time period and at the same time capture substantial nonresidential square footage, a sworn officer per 1,000 population methodology would not reflect the cost to serve the increase in nonresidential activity. A. Operating Costs Based on the FY98 budget, the Police Department budget is divided into the following four divisions: 1) Administration, 2) Support Services, 3) Community Policing, and 4) Criminal Investigations. The table below shows the FY98 operating costs and percentage for each division. FY98 Police Department Budget City of Wilmington Division Budget Percent Administration $567,000 6% Support Services $1,784,070 20% Community Policing $4,954,340 54% Criminal Investigations $1,811,440 2000 $9,116,850 100% 1. Administration Division The Administration Division is responsible for the overall management of the department and also houses the professional standards and community relations functions. Other activities include training, crime prevention programs, the DARE 61 Tischler & Associates, Inc. Level of Service, Cost and Revenue Factors Wilmington -New Hanover County, North Carolina program internal investigations and career development activities. The FY98 budget for this Division totals $567,000. As the population and employment of the City grows, so too will this Division's budget, although on a partial cost basis, estimated at 50%, as this Division will have to increase its community relations and crime prevention programs. Therefore the FY98 budget is divided by the 1997 population and employment estimate of 97,592 and is then multiplied by 50%, for a per capita and job cost of $2.90. 2. Support Services Division The Support Services Division is responsible for the management of police records, property, and evidence. The Division also handles budget, personnel, and purchasing functions of the Police Department. The FY98 budget for this Division totals $1,784,070. Since this Division is primarily administrative, costs are expected although on a partial cost basis estimated at 25%. The FY98 budget is multiplied by 25% and is then divided by the 1997 population and employment estimate of 97,592, for a per capita and employee increase of $4.57. 3. Community Policing Division The Community Policing Division is the patrol function of the Police Department and emphasizes a neighborhood based approach through the use of four Neighborhood Area Base Stations (NABS). There are currently 167 officers performing patrol activities. The Community Policing budget will increase based on calls for service. The table below contains breaking and entering calls for service for 1996. These calls for service are the only ones that could be provided based on residential versus nonresidential location. The 60% residential/40% nonresidential distribution is assumed to be an accurate proxy for overall calls for service in the City. Calls for Service, 1996 Wilmington. North Carolina Location Calls Percent Residential Nonresidential 931 629 60% 40% Total 1,560 100% Source: City of Wilmington Police Department The table below breaks out the residential portion (60%) of the Community Policing Division budget based on calls for service. The residential portion is then divided by the existing population and then multiplied by the household size by type of 62 Tischler & Associates, Inc. • • Level of Service, Cost and Revenue Factors Wilmington -New Hanover County, North Carolina 0 _"N unit to obtain a cost per unit factor. This factor will then be used to project growth related costs. Community Policing Residential Land Use Factors City of Wilmington Police Department FY98 Budget $4,964,340 Existing Pop. Residential Portion (60%)* $2,972,604 Per Capita Cost Household Cost per Land Use Size** Unit Single Family 2.50 $115.82 Duplex/Townhouse 2.26 $104.70 Apartment 1.87 $86.63 Mobile Homes 2.04 $94.51 *Based on calls for service data provided by the Police Department "Based on an analysis of 1990 Census Data 64,164 $46.33 The nonresidential methodology allocates the nonresidential portion (40%) of the Community Policing Division budget, which totals $1,981,736. The nonresidential portion of the budget is allocated by type of nonresidential land use. Since specific records for calls for service by land use type is not available, trips by type of nonresidential land use are utilized as a realistic proxy. This methodology indicates that the greatest calls for service on a per square foot basis are for retail, then office and then flex. The table below summarizes the nonresidential vehicle trips on an average weekday in the City of Wilmington. Nonresidential Vehicle Trips on an Average Weekday Wilmington, North Carolina Nonresidential Gross Floor Area (Sq. Ft. x 1, 000) Retail/Shopping Center Office Flex Average Weekday Vehicle Trips Ends per 1, 000 Sq. Ft. Retail/Shopping Center Office Flex Nonresidential Vehicle Trips on an Average Weekday Retail/Shopping Center Office Flex Total 7,408 2,563 2,637 53.22 15.59 3.82 126,161 19,979 5,037 151,176 *Trip Rates are from Trip Generation (Institute of Transportation Engineers, 1997. Trip rates assume community scale shopping center in the 200,000 sq. ft. range, office in the 50,000 sq. ft. range and manufacturing. Trip Factors I 63 Tischler & Associates, Inc. Level of Service, Cost and Revenue Factors Wilmington -New Hanover County, North Carolina Average Weekday Vehicle Trip Ends are from the reference book, Trip Generation, published b the Institute of Transportation p Y p n Engineers (6th Edition, 1997). A "trip end" represents a vehicle either entering or exiting a development. Trip rates have been adjusted to avoid over estimating the number of actual trips because one vehicle trip is counted in the trip rates of both the origination and destination points. A simple factor of 50% has been applied to Office and Flex categories. The Retail/Shopping Center category has a trip factor of less than 50% because this type of development attracts vehicles as they pass -by on arterial and collector roads. For example, when someone stops at a convenience store on their way home from work,. the convenience store is not their primary destination. The ITE manual indicates that on average 37% of the vehicles entering shopping centers are passing by on the way to some other primary destination and 63% of the attraction trips have the shopping centers as their primary destination. Therefore, the adjusted trip factor is 32% (0.63 x 0.50). Based on the 151,176 average daily trips and the nonresidential operating cost for Community Policing of $1,981,736 (40% of $4,954,340), the operating cost per nonresidential vehicle trip is $13.11. This level of service standard is then multiplied by the associated nonresidential trip ends and trip factors to derive the nonresidential factor increase due to new growth for the Community Policing Division. Nonresidential Land Use Factors for Community Policing Division Operating Costs Wilmington, North Carolina Nonresidential Weekday Vehicle Trips per 1,000 Sq. Ft. Standards Trip Factors Retail/Shopping Center 53.22 32% Office 15.59 50% Flex 3.82 50% Level of Service Standards Nonresidential Operating Costs (40% x $4,954,340) $1,981,736 Nonresidential Vehicle Trips 151,176 Operating Cost per Vehicle Trip $13.11 Operating Costs Per 1,000 sq. ft. Per Employee* Retail/Shopping Center $223.25 $89.30 Office $102.18 $26.06 Flex $25.04 $13.60 *Based on 400 square feet per retail employee, 255 square feet per office employee and 543 square feet per flex employee • 64 Tischler & Associates, Inc. Level of Service, Cost and Revenue Factors Wilmington -New Hanover County, North Carolina 4. Criminal Investigations Division • Criminal Investigations Division investigates all crimes and targets career The Cnm na criminals in the community. The FY98 operating expenses for the Criminal Investigations Division totals $1,811,440; Since investigations are related to calls for service, as calls increase, investigations can be expected to increase proportionately. 'The table below breaks out the residential portion (60%) of the Criminal Investigations Division budget based on calls for service. The residential portion is then divided by the existing population and then multiplied by the household size by type of unit to obtain a cost per unit factor. This factor will then be used to project growth related costs. Criminal Investigations Residential Land Use Factors City of Wilmington Police Department FY98 Budget $1,811,440 Existing Pop. 64,164 Residential Portion (60%)* $1,086,864 Per Capita Cost $16.94 Household Cost per Land Use Size** Unit Single Family 2.50 $42.35 Duplex/Townhouse 2.26 $38.28 Apartment 1.87 $31.68 Mobile Homes 2.04 OJ $34.56 Based on calls for service data provided by the Police Department "Based on an analysis of 1990 Census Data s The nonresidential methodology allocates the nonresidential portion (40%) of the Criminal Investigations Division budget, which totals $724,576. As was the case for the Community Policing Division, the nonresidential portion of the budget is allocated by type of nonresidential land use. This methodology indicates that the greatest calls for service on a per square foot basis are for retail, then office and the flex/industrial. The table below summarizes the nonresidential vehicle trips on an average weekday in the City of Wilmington. 65 Tischler & Associates, Inc. Level of Service, Cost and Revenue Factors Wilmington -New Hanover County, North Carolina Nonresidential Vehicle Trips on an Average Weekday Wilmington, North Carolina Nonresidential Gross Floor Area (Sq. Ft. x 1, 000) Retail/Shopping Center Office Flex Average Weekday Vehicle Trips Ends per 1, 000 Sq. Ft.* Retail/Shopping Center Office Flex Nonresidential Vehicle Trips on an Average Weekday Retail/Shopping Center Office Flex Total 7,408 2,563 2,637 53.22 15.59 3.82 126,161 19,979 5,037 151,176 *Trip Rates are from Trip Generation (Institute of Transportation Engineers, 1997. Trip rates assume community scale shopping center in the 200,000 sq. ft. range, office in the 50,000 sq. ft. range and manufacturing. Trip Factors Based on the 151,176 average daily trips and the nonresidential operating cost for Criminal Investigations of $724,576 (40% of $1,811,440), the operating cost per nonresidential vehicle trip is $4.79. This level of service standard is then multiplied by the associated nonresidential trip ends and trip factors to derive the nonresidential factor increase due to new growth for the Criminal Investigations Division. Nonresidential Land Use Factors for Criminal Investigations Division Operating Costs Wilmington, North Carolina Nonresidential Weekday Vehicle Trips per 1, 000 Sq. Ft. Standards TO Factors Retail/Shopping Center 53.22 32% Office 15.59 50% Flex 3.82 50% Level of Service Standards Nonresidential Operating Costs (40% x $1,811,440) $724,576 Nonresidential Vehicle Trips 151,176 Operating Cost per Vehicle Trip $4.79 Operating Costs Per 1,000 sq. ft. Per Employee* Retail/Shopping Center $81.63 $32.65 Office $37.36 $9.53 Flex $9.15 $4.97 *Based on 400 square feet per retail employee, 255 square feet per office employee and 543 square feet per flex employee 66 Tischler & Associates, Inc. • • Level of Service, Cost and Revenue Factors Wilmington -New Hanover County, North Carolina B. Capital Costs 1. Headquarters The Police Department presently operates out of a central Headquarters, located in downtown Wilmington and four Neighborhood Area Base Stations (NABS). The Headquarters is located in an old building in need of repairs. The Department is not presently utilizing the entire building. TA is told that a Space Needs Analysis is being conducted to determine Police space needs in the future. However, TA is of the opinion that any capital investment in Police Headquarters space is not necessitated by new growth, rather it is a reaction to the antiquated facility the Department is now utilizing. Therefore there is no capital cost associated with this facility. 2. Neighborhood Area Base Stations As part of the Departments community policing efforts, four Neighborhood Area Base Stations (NABS) have been established. These base stations are essentially office trailers that allow Officers a place to catch up on paperwork, make phone calls, as well as establish a Police presence in the neighborhood. These NABS have an estimated capital cost of $12,000 and have been paid for through grant money. Additional NABS are planned in the annexation areas and will be required in the Urban County. A cost of $12,000 is assumed in the analysis for a NABS in each of the annexation areas and.two in the Urban County. 3. Patrol Officer Equipment The table below shows all the one-time costs associated with a new patrol officer added to the Police Department. These costs include radio and related equipment, weapon and ammunition, as well as uniforms and related equipment. 67 One -Time Capital Cost Per Patrol Officer City of Wilmington Police Department Item Cost Radio Equipment $835 Service Weapon $422 Ammunition $63 UniformsNest $1,636 Equipment $720 Total $3,676 Tischler & Associates, Inc. Level of Service, Cost and Revenue Factors Wilmington -New Hanover County, North Carolina The table below shows the capital costs associated with the purchase of a new patrol vehicle for the City of Wilmington Police Department. The City currently has 100 vehicles for 167 sworn officers. This is a ratio of 1 vehicle for every 1.67 sworn officers. Vehicles are assumed to have a useful life of five years. Vehicle Capital Costs amity of vvnmington vouce uepartment Item Cost 4 Door Sedan $21,000 Blue Light Bar $625 Siren Speaker $170 Switch Box $60 Siren $190 Communication Rail $60 Seat Cover $90 Security Screen $170 Decal Kit $190 Mobile Radio $710 Fire Extinguisher $13 Installation Costs $400 Total $23,678 j According to the most recent information (1997) provided by the Police Department, the City received 100,068 calls for service in 1997. When this is compared to the 1997 population and employment total in the City of 97,592, there were 1.03 calls for service for every resident and job in the City. Given the current 167 sworn police officers, there is an average of 599 calls for service per officer. Therefore, for purposes of the fiscal impact analysis, a new patrol officer with an associated one-time capital cost of $3,676 will be incurred by the City for each additional 599 calls for service. In addition, for every 1.67 officers a capital cost of $23,678 will be incurred by the City for a patrol vehicle with a useful life of three years. 68 Tischler & Associates, Inc. • • is Level of Service, Cost and Revenue Factors Wilmington -New Hanover County, North Carolina POLICE k Activit Allocation Amount A. Operating Costs 1. Administration Partial per capita $2.90 2. Support Services Per capita/emp. $4.57 3. Community Policing Per res. unit/nonres. trip See text 4. Criminal Investigations Per res. unit/nonres. trip See text B. Capital Costs 1. Headquarters N/A N/A 2. Neighborhood Base Stations Direct entry $12,000 3. Patrol Officer Equipment Direct entry See text 69 Tischler & Associates, Inc. Level of Service, Cost and Revenue Factors Wilmington -New Hanover County, North Carolina 3. FIRE A. Operating Costs Based on the FY98 budget, the Fire Department budget is divided into the following five divisions: 1) Administration, 2) Support Services, 3) Fire Prevention/Investigations, 4) Firefighting, and 5) Hazardous Materials. The table below shows the FY98 operating costs and percentage for each division. FY98 Fire Department Budget City of Wilmington Division Budget Percent Administration $92,250 2% Support Services $516,500 9% Fire Prevention/Investigatior $225,840 4% Firefighting $5,110,040 85% Hazardous Materials $72,700 1 % $6,017,330 100% 1. Administration Division The Administration Division is responsible for the overall management of the S Department. The City of Wilmington Fire Department estimates the following increases in administrative costs. In the Phase I Annexation area, a Secretary will be required, at an annual cost of $21,750. No increase in administrative costs are projected for the Phase II and III annexation areas. Phase I annexation costs will be used as a proxy for the Urban County. These costs will be directly entered into the fiscal model. Administration Costs to 2010 Area Year Cost Phase I Annexation .1998 $21,750 Phase II Annexation 1998 N/A Phase III Annexation 1998 N/A Urban County 1 2010 1 $21,750 Source: City of Wilmington Fire Department 2. Support Services The Support Services Division provides equipment maintenance and training functions for the Department. In the Phase I area, the Fire Department estimates that it will incur an additional $176,000 in annual operating costs. In the Phase II area, an 70 Tischler & Associates, Inc. Level of Service, Cost and Revenue Factors Wilmington -New Hanover County, North Carolina increase in annual operating costs of $176,000 is anticipated. In the Phase III area, it estimated that an additional Training Officer and Equipment Mechanic will be needed, at an annual cost of $59,750, as well as an additional $176,000 in annual operating costs. Phase 1 annexation costs will be used as a proxy for the Urban County. These costs will be direct entered into the fiscal impact model. Support Services Costs to 2010 Area Year Cost Phase I Annexation 1998 $176,000 Phase II Annexation 1998 $176,000 Phase III Annexation 1998 $235,750 Urban County 2010 $176,000 Source: City of Wilmington Fire Department 3. Fire Prevention/Investigations The Fire Prevention/Investigations Division inspects and permits all public buildings and businesses for compliance with applicable building and fire safety codes. This Division also investigates fires that are suspicious or involve injury, death, or a large loss or property. In the Phase I area, the Fire Department estimates that it will incur an additional $31,125 annually for an Inspector. No increase is expected for the Phase II area. Phase I annexation costs will be used as a proxy for the Phase III area and Urban County, respectfully. These costs will be direct entered into the fiscal impact model.. Prevention/Investigations Costs to 2010 Area Year Cost Phase 1 Annexation 1998 $31,125 Phase II Annexation 1998 N/A Phase III Annexation 1,998 $31,125 Urban County 2010 $31,125 Source: City of Wilmington Fire Department 4. Firefighting Division The Firefighting Division responds to fire calls and serves as a first responder for other emergencies. Firefighting operates from six fire stations located throughout Wilmington. In the Phase I area, the Fire Department estimates that it will incur an additional $1,143,525 annually for 39 additional firefighting personnel. In the Phase II 71 Tischler & Associates, Inc. Level of Service, Cost and Revenue Factors Wilmington -New Hanover County, North Carolina and III areas, an additional cost of $684,250 will be incurred in each area for 24 firefighting personnel. Phase I annexation cos g g p is will be used as a proxy for the Urban County. These costs will be direct entered into the fiscal impact model. Firefighting Costs to 2010 Area Year Cost Phase I Annexation 1998 $1,143,525 Phase II Annexation 1998 $684,250 Phase III Annexation 1998 $684,250 Urban County 2010 1 $1,143,525 Source: City of Wilmington Fire Department 5. Hazardous Materials The Hazardous Materials budget covers Departmental costs to respond to hazardous materials incidents. The FY98 budget for this function is $72,700. This budget is projected to increase with additional population and employment. The FY98 budget is divided by the 1997 population and employment estimate of 97,592, for a per capita and employee cost of $0.74. B. Impact on Volunteer Fire Departments According to North Carolina State Law, the City has the option to enter into a contract with volunteer fire departments in an annexation area to provide supplemental services to the area. If the City chooses not to enter into a contract with the departments, the City would be responsible for paying a proportionate share of the current department debt. For purposes of the fiscal analysis, it is assumed that the City enters into supplemental service contracts. The Phase I and II annexation studies provide estimates for the annual amounts of these contracts. The contract amounts for the Phase III and Urban County area was estimated using the required formula that multiplies the assessed value by the Fire District's 2.5 cent tax rate and divides the result by half. These amounts are shown in the table below. Volunteer Fire Supplemental Service Costs Area Year Cost Phase I Annexation 1998 $132,706 Phase II Annexation 1998 $74,540 Phase III Annexation 1998 $66,919 Urban County 2010 $132,844 Source: City of Wilmington Fire Department 72 Tischler & Associates, Inc. • • Level of Service, Cost and Revenue Factors Wilmington -New Hanover County, North Carolina C. Capital Costs Capital cost for the extension of fire protection to the Phase I, II and III annexation areas were provided by the City of Wilmington Fire Department. 1. Phase I Annexation Area The Phase I Annexation Study calls for the construction of two additional Fire stations in the annexation area. The total cost of the new stations, including land acquisition, is estimated to be $2,000,000. This cost will be direct entered into the fiscal impact model and is assumed to be financed through 20-year bonds at an interest rate of 6%. The total cost of acquiring new equipment and vehicles is estimated at $1,045,000. This purchase will be financed through a 5-year lease -purchase arrangement. 2. Phase II Annexation The Phase II Annexation study calls for the construction of two additional Fire stations in the annexation area. The total cost of the new stations, including land acquisition, is estimated to be $2,000,000. This cost will be directly entered into the fiscal impact model and is assumed to be financed through 20-year bonds at an interest rate of 6%. The total cost of acquiring new equipment and vehicles is estimated at $550,000. This purchase will be financed through a 5-year lease -purchase arrangement. 3. Phase III Annexation The Fire Department estimates the need for an additional two stations in the Phase III annexation area. The total cost of the new stations, including land acquisition, is estimated to be $2,000,000. This cost will be direct entered into the fiscal impact model and is assumed to be financed through 20-year bonds at an interest rate of 6%. The total cost of acquiring new equipment and vehicles is estimated at $1,045,000. This purchase will be financed through a 5-year lease -purchase arrangement. 4. Urban County Lacking a detailed study regarding capital costs for stations and equipment to serve the Urban County, the Phase I annexation area capital costs is used as a proxy. 73 Tischler & Associates, Inc. Level of Service, Cost and Revenue Factors Wilmington -New Hanover County, North Carolina Ca ital Costs to 2010 Area Year Stations Equipment Total Phase I Annexation 1998 $2,000,000 $1,045,000 $3,045,000 Phase II Annexation 1998 $2,000,000 $550,000 $2,550,000 Phase III Annexation 1998 $2,000,000 $1,045,000 $3,045,000 Urban County 2010 $2,000,000 1 $1,045,000 $3,045,000 Source: City of Wilmington Fire Department • 74 Tischler & Associates, Inc. Level of Service, Cost and Revenue Factors Wilmington -New Hanover County, North Carolina FIRE Activit Allocation Amount A. Operating Costs 1. Administrative Division Direct entry See text 2. Support Services Direct entry See text 3. Fire Prevention/Investigations Direct entry See text 4. Firefighting Direct entry See text 5. Hazardous Materials Pop. & emp. $0.74 B. Impact on Volunteer Stations Direct entry See text C. Capital Costs 1. Phase I Annexation Direct entry $3,045,000 2. Phase II Annexation Direct entry $2,550,000 3. Phase III Annexation Direct entry $3,045,000 4. Urban County Direct entry $3,045,000 75 Tischler & Associates, Inc. Level of Service, Cost and Revenue Factors Wilmington -New Hanover County, North Carolina 4. PUBLIC SERVICES AND FACILITIES A. Administration The Administration Division is responsible for providing overall management of a wide range of departmental activities, including the handling of telephone and visitor inquiries, review of development plans for conformity with City regulations and providing research and analytical support to the department. The FY98 budget for this Division totals $368,880. According to the Annexation Studies prepared by the City, this Division will need to add the following positions for the Phase I area: one Administrative Assistant at $23,043, one Site Review Assistant at $23,043 and one Secretary at $19,693, and $23,000 annually in additional operating expenses. In the Phase II area, one Program Specialist at $33,964 is anticipated as well as an additional $10,000 in operating expenses. The Phase 11 estimate will be used as a proxy for the Phase III annexation area and Urban County, respectively. These costs will be directly entered into the fiscal model. 7� Public Service and Facilities -Administration Costs Area Year Cost Phase I Annexation 1998 $88,779 Phase II Annexation 1998 $43,964 Phase III Annexation 1998 $43,964 Urban County 2010 $43,964 Source: _City of Wilmington Annexation Studies B. Operations 1. Buildings and Facilities -Operating The Buildings and Facilities Division provides emergency and preventative maintenance to approximately 125 City -owned buildings and facilities used by City staff and citizens. According to the Annexation Studies prepared by the City, there will be no additional staff needed as a result of Phase I and Phase II annexations. These assumptions will also be used for the Phase III and Urban County areas. • 76 Tischler & Associates, Inc. Level of Service, Cost and Revenue Factors Wilmington -New Hanover County, North Carolina s 2. Buildings and Facilities -Capital In order for the Public Services and Facilities Division to adequately provide services to the annexation areas and Urban County, it will be necessary to construct a new operations center to handle the increases staffing, equipment and supplies. This center will cost $3,000,000 in FY99 and is assumed to be debt financed at an interest rate of 6% and a term of 20 years. 3. Landscape and Parks The Landscape and Parks Division is responsible for maintaining and improving the City's park lands, open space and street trees. The FY98 budget for this Division totals $1,282,180. According to the Annexation Studies prepared by the City, this Division will need to add the following positions for the Phase I area: one Tree Crew Chief at $23,100 annually and one Tree Trimmer at 21,350 annually, as well as an additional $52,500 annually in operating expenses. In the Phase II area, two Maintenance Mechanics/Operators at a combined $42,676 annually and 3 Maintenance Workers at a combined $53,962 annually, as well as an additional $132,550 in annual operating costs. The Phase I estimate will be used as a proxy for the rnase in annexation area and Urban County, respectively. These costs will be direct entered into the fiscal model Public Service and Facilities -Landscape and Parks Costs Area Year Cost Phase I Annexation 1998 $96,950 Phase II Annexation 1998 $229,188 Phase III Annexation 1998 $96,950 Urban County 2010 $96,950 Source: City of Wilmington Annexation Studies 4. Stormwater The City currently has 21.5 miles of open ditches and canals and 17 area -wide retention ponds. The present operational budget, included in the Operation Division of the Public Service and Facilities budget, covers ongoing activities including maintenance, repairs, aquatic weed control, slope mowing, etc. However, as of July 1, 1998, this Program will be funded through a Stormwater Utility Fund. Stomwater service fees are proposed as the primary source of revenue for this fund. This service fee is based on impervious surface area and is proposed at $3.50 per month for single- 77 Tischler & Associates, Inc. Level of Service, Cost and Revenue Factors Wilmington -New Hanover County, North Carolina family residences. The fee for other uses is based on multiples of the residential fee, depending on size of the impervious area. The current budget amount of 1 032 440 p 9 P 9 $ , used for stormwater activities will be netted out for purposes of the fiscal impact analysis, as it is assumed to be covered by this new Utility Fund. There are costs the City will have to pay to this fund due to growth. The City will pay the increase for impervious surface from roads and sidewalks as well as City -owned buildings. C. Transportation 1. Traffic Operation The Public Services and Facilities Department provides preventive and routine maintenance to paved and unpaved streets in the City. These activities include street sweeping, shoulder and plaza stabilization, public hazard correction, street lighting, and management of contracts for resurfacing streets and sidewalk repair. Provision of Street and Traffic Operation maintenance services to the Phase 1 annexation area will require additions to the budget. A total of seven employees will be added to existing crews at an estimated annual cost of $169,333. A bucket truck will be purchased for the signal repair crew. The sign crew will have a utility truck and the road • repair crew will utilize an asphalt patching truck and dump truck. Funds are also provided for contracted street sweeping service and other operating costs, including the rental of street lights. Annual operating expenditures are estimated at $258,000 and initial capital expenditures are estimated at $365,000. Provision of Street and Traffic Operation maintenance services to the Phase II annexation area will require a total of seven employees to be added to existing crews to provide these services at an estimated cost ,of $169,333. The sign crew will have a utility truck and the street crew will require a pick up truck, a large truck, asphalt roller, trailer, and backhoe. Funds are also provided for contracted street sweeping services and for other operating costs, including the rental of street lights. Annual operating expenditures are budgeted at $258,200. Initial equipment purchases and other capital outlay are estimated at $287,310. Phase 1 operating costs will be used as a proxy for the Phase III annexation area and Urban County, respectively. Phase I annexation area capital costs will be used as a proxy for the Urban County and Phase 11 annexation • 78 Tischler & Associates, Inc. Level of Service, Cost and Revenue Factors . Wilmington -New Hanover County, North Carolina s area capital costs will be used as a proxy for the Phase III annexation area. These costs will be direct entered into the fiscal impact model. Street and Traffic Op eration Costs Area Year Annual O er. Costs Capital Costs Phase I Annexation 1998 $427,333 $365,000 Phase II Annexation 1998 $427 533 $287 310 Phase III Annexation 1998 $427,333 $287,310 Urban County 2010 1 $427,5331 $365,000 Source: City of Wilmington Annexation Studies - 2. Road Capital Costs The State of North Carolina is responsible for constructing all thoroughfare streets in the City of Wilmington and the private sector has responsibility for participating in the construction of streets necessary to serve individual developments. However, the City has funded the construction of non -local streets that were not in the State Transportation Improvement Plan, sometimes with the participation of local developers. The amount of funding the City has allocated for these types of transportation projects has varied greatly over the years. However, it can be assumed that this participation will continue in the future and will increase as the City's corporate limits increase. Therefore, it will be assumed, based on discussions with the City Planning staff, that the City will spend $500,000 annually on pay-as-you-go road projects in each annexation area. In addition, there will be debt financed road capital costs in each area. These amounts are shown in the table below. The City's cost for sidewalks and bikeways are assumed to be captured in the capital costs below. Road Ca ital Costs Area Year Pay -As -You -Go Debt Financed Phase I Annexation 1998 $500,000 $6 000,000 Phase II Annexation 1998 $500,000 $7,000 000 Phase III Annexation 1998 $500,000 $7,000,000 Urban Count 2010 $500,000 $10,000,000 Source: City of Wilmington Planning Department D. Solid Waste The Public Services and Facilities Department provides refuse collection, recycling, yard waste collection and bulky item removal through the Solid Waste Management Fund. However, under the Public Services and Facilities General Fund budget, there is a $226,490 budget for Solid Waste that covers the cost of collection 79 Tischler & Associates, Inc. Level of Service, Cost and Revenue Factors Wilmington -New Hanover County, North Carolina from public facilities, community level activities and dump site cleanups. The budget is expected to increase with additional population growth. The FY budget contribution is is P PP g 9 divided by the 1997 population estimate of 64,164, for a per capita cost of $3.53. D. Recreation 1. Operating Costs The Recreation Division manages a program of public recreation services, including recreation centers, athletic leagues, and therapeutic and senior services. According to the Annexation Studies prepared by the City, this Division will need to add the following positions for the Phase I area: a Program Specialist at $32,980 annually, as well as an additional $8,000 annually in operating costs. The Phase II area is not projected to increase the operating budget. The Phase I estimate will be used as a proxy for the Phase III annexation area and Urban County, respectively. These costs will be direct entered into the fiscal model. Public Service and Facilities -Recreation Costs Area Year Cost Phase I Annexation 1998 $40,980 Phase II Annexation 1998 N/A Phase III Annexation 1998 $40,980 Urban County 1 2010 1 $40,980 Source: City of Wilmington Annexation Studies 2. Capital Costs To estimate capital costs, TA will utilize a one-time capital cost per person methodology. This methodology is being used since the City currently obtains the majority of its park land through developer contributions, although this is generally recognized as insufficient. The City has only'purchased 60 acres of park land over the last 10 years. This cost $10 million and the City has budgeted $2 million for improvements. A one-time capital cost per person is assumed to represent a proxy cost, which will probably be used to develop a regional athletic complex on land the City already owns. . The City of Wilmington currently maintains approximately 250 acres of greenway and park land. When this is compared to the 1997 population estimate of 64,164, the resulting level of service standard is .004 acres per capita. The estimated development 80 Tischler & Associates, Inc. • Level of Service, Cost and Revenue Factors Wilmington -New Hanover County, North Carolina • cost per acre for a regional athletic area is $25,000 an acre. This translates into a capital cost per person of $100. 81 Tischler & Associates, Inc. Level of Service, Cost and Revenue Factors Wilmington -New Hanover County, North Carolina PUBLIC SERVICES AND FACILITIES Activit Allocation Amount A. Administration Direct entry See text B. Operating Costs 1. Buildings & Facilities -Operating Fixed N/A 2. Buildings & Facilities -Capital Direct entry $3,00,000 3. Landscape & Parks Fixed N/A 4. Stormwater NIA See text C. Transportation 1. Operating Costs Direct entry See text 2. Road Capital Costs Direct entry See text D. Solid Waste Per capita $3.53 E. Recreation 1. Operating Costs Direct entry See text 2. Capital Costs One-time per capita $100 • 82 Tischler & Associates, Inc. Level of Service, Cost and Revenue Factors Wilmington -New Hanover County, North Carolina i 5. GENERAL FUND REVENUES A. Property Taxes Property Tax is a tax on real property and vehicles based on the value of the property as a marketable item. Real property includes land, buildings, and items permanently affixed to land or buildings. A tax rate is established by the City Council for each fiscal year. The current tax rate is $0.595 per $100 dollars of assessed value. This rate changes every eight years during the valuation process. However, since this fiscal impact analysis utilizes a "snapshot" approach, the current rate will be used. For purposes of the fiscal impact analysis, a 100% tax rate is assumed. For the fiscal impact analysis, TA's FISCALS software . will calculate property taxes from new development by multiplying the tax and assessment rates by the average market values. The average market values for new construction are shown in the table below. Market Values of New Construction rite of Wilminnfnn/Now HannvPr Cnunty Unit City Phase I Phase II Phase III County Single Family* $146,862 $356,616 $222,738 $205,063 $159,398 Duplex/Townhome* $93,712 $113,502 $113,502 $113,502 $143,120 Apartment** $61,969 $61,969 $61,969 $61,969 $61,969 Retail (per sq. ft.)** $71.38 $71.38 $71.38 $71.38 $67.36 Office (per sq. ft.)** $67.94 $67.94 $67.94 $67.94 $64.28 Flex(per sq. ft.)** $34.12 $34.12 $34.12 $34.12 $21.47 *Source: New Hanover County Board of Reaftors **Source: Marshall & Swift Valuation Service B. Penalty and Interest on Property Taxes Interest on Property Taxes is charged for taxes not paid on time. This revenue source totals $80,000 in FY98. Since a 100% collection rate is assumed for property taxes, this revenue source will remain fixed in the fiscal impact analysis. C. Sales Tax 1. Local Option Taxes Sales Tax includes a 1-cent local option and two half -cent local option sales taxes. The taxes are collected by the State of North Carolina on retail sales or leases of tangible personal property and on the rental of hotel and motel rooms. A retail square 83 Tischler & Associates, Inc. Level of Service, Cost and Revenue Factors Wilmington -New Hanover County, North Carolina footage projection methodology will be used for each of the sales tax revenue sources. This methodologyutilizes information contained in Dollars & Cents of Shopping• Centers, published by the Urban Land Institute, and assumes that every additional square foot of retail space added in the City generates sales of $172.58 annually (A community scale shopping center prototype was assumed). 2. Room Occupancy Tax The City collects room occupancy tax on hotel and motel room stays. This revenue source totals $200,000 in FY98 and is given to the County. According to State law, the County must use 60% of this revenue for beach erosion control and the remaining 40% for tourism promotion. Therefore this revenue will not be factored in the fiscal analysis. D. Licenses, Fees and Permits 1. Privilege Licenses Privilege License revenue is generated by the issuance of business licenses. The FY98 revenue totals $795,000 and is projected to increase with employment growth. The FY98 revenue amount is divided by the 1997 employment estimate of • 33,428, for a per employee increase of $23.78. 2. Motor Vehicle Licenses Motor Vehicle License revenue totals $200,000 in FY98 and is projected to increase with population growth in the City. The FY98 revenue total is divided by the 1997 population estimate of 64,164, for a per capita increase of $3.12. 3. Cable TV Franchise Fees Cable TV Franchise Fee revenue is derived from monthly cable bills. The FY98 revenue totals $445,000 and is projected to increase with additional household growth in the City. The FY98 revenue total is divided by the FY98 household estimate of 28,273, for a per household increase of $15.73. 4. Other Fees and Permits The City also receives revenue from Fire Permits & Charges ($60,000), Miscellaneous Permits ($10,000) and Stormwater Discharge Permits ($10,000). The • 84 Tischler & Associates, Inc. Level of Service, Cost and Revenue Factors Wilmington -New Hanover County, North Carolina • • Stormwater Fee will be part of a Stormwater Enterprise fund next fiscal year and Fire Permits and Miscellaneous Permits are expected to remain fixed sources of revenue. E. Intergovernmental Revenues 1. Utility Franchise Tax The Utility Franchise Tax is a revenue source generated from utility bills. This revenue source totals $2,400,000 in FY98 and is expected to increase with population and employment. The FY98 revenue total is divided by the 1997 population and employment estimate of 97,592, for a per capita and job increase of $33.40. 2. Beer and Wine Tax Beer and Wine Tax is an excise tax levied by the State on the sale of beer and wine at the wholesale level. Counties and cities, in which beverages are sold and taxed, may share in the proceeds of the tax on a per capita basis. This revenue source totals $255,000 in FY98 and is projected to increase with population growth. The FY98 revenue total is divided by the 1997 population estimate of 64,164, for a per capita increase of $3.97. 3. Alcoholic Beverage Control (ABC) Revenues ABC Revenues total $406,000 in FY98 and are projected to increase with population growth. The FY98 revenue total is divided by the 1997 population estimate of 64,164, for a per capita increase of $6.32. 4. Powell Bill Revenue Powell Bill Revenue is revenue from State Gas Taxes that is distributed to localities for street maintenance. These monies are distributed to localities based 75% on population and 25% on local street mileage. This revenue source totals $1,915,000 in FY98 and is projected to increase with additional population. The FY98 revenue total is divided by the 1997 population estimate of 64,164, for a per capita increase of $29.85. 5. FTA/NCDOT Transit Revenue The City receives several grants from the Federal Transit Administration and the North Carolina Department of Transportation, primarily for transit operations. These grants total $727,480 in FY98. The majority of these funds are passed through to the 85 Tischler & Associates, Inc. Level of Service, Cost and Revenue Factors Wilmington -New Hanover County, North Carolina Wilmington Transit Authority and the remainder is used to offset City administrative costs. Since these grant revenues are not directly related to growth the will remain �y 9 Y fixed in the fiscal impact analysis. 6. Other Intergovernmental Revenue There are several other Intergovernmental Revenue sources the City receives, such as Inventories Tax Reimbursement, Food Stamp Reimbursement, and Federal Transit Authority funds that, will remain fixed or will be netted out of the appropriate operating budget. F. Charges for Public Service Charges for Public Services total $228,000 in FY98. These revenues are from items such as parking meters, lot cleaning charges, and street department charges. These revenues will remain fixed in the fiscal analysis. G. Charges for Recreation Programs This revenue source is comprised various fees and user charges for parks and recreation programs and facilities. This revenue source totals $140,840 in FY98 and is expected to increase with additional population growth in the City. The FY98 revenues are divided by the 1887 population estimate of 64,164. For a per capita increase of $2.20. H. Miscellaneous Charges for Service Miscellaneous Charges for Service total $15,000 in FY98 and will remain fixed in the fiscal impact analysis. I. Charges for General Government Services Charges for General Government Services are primarily payments by the City's enterprise and grant funds for -services provided by the General Fund departments. These payments total $1,679,600 in FY98. Most of these payments are expected to remain fixed in the analysis. However, the Public Utilities Fund payment is expected to increase over time and will be reflected in the analysis. • 86 Tischler & Associates, Inc. Level of Service, Cost and Revenue Factors Wilmington -New Hanover County, North Carolina �s J. Charges for Public Safety Services This revenue source is comprised of miscellaneous charges and con tracts for Public Safety services. This revenue source totals $604,500 in FY98. Based on discussions with City staff, this revenue source is not expected to be significantly impacted by growth and will remain fixed in the fiscal analysis. K. Fines and Forfeitures Fines and Forfeitures are comprised of Civil and Parking Violations. This revenue source totals $218,000 and is projected to increase with population growth. The FY98 revenue total is divided by the 1997 population estimate of 64,164, for a per capita increase of $3.39. L. Investment Income Investment Income comes from interest on investments, assessments, and liens. This revenue source totals $724,000 in FY98. For purposes of the fiscal impact analysis, this revenue source will remain the same percentage (4.2%) of Property Taxes •1 in 2010 as it is in FY98. t M. Other Revenue Other Revenue is comprised of proceeds from the sale of equipment, materials and land. This revenue source totals $44,000 in FY98 and will remain fixed in the fiscal impact analysis. N. Appropriated Fund Balance The Appropriated Fund Balance is essentially the rollover from, the previous fiscal year fund balance. This balance totals $915,340 in FY98 and will remain fixed in the fiscal impact analysis. 87 Tischler & Associates, Inc. Level of Service, Cost and Revenue Factors Wilmington -New Hanover County, North Carolina GENERAL FUND REVENUES Activit Allocation Amount �( A. Property Taxes Per $100 ass. Value $0.595 B. Penalty & Interest Fixed N/A C. Sales Tax 1. Local Option Taxes Per Square Foot $172.58 2. Room Occupancy See text N/A D. Licenses, Fees & Permits 1. Privilege License Per employee $23.78 2. Motor Vehicle License Per capita $3.12 3. Cable TV Per household $15.73 4. Other Fees Fixed N/A E. Intergovernmental Revenues 1. Utility Franchise Per capita & emp. $33.40 2. Beer & Wine Tax Per capita $3.97 3. ABC Revenues Per capita $6.32 4. Powell Bill Revenue Per capita $29.85 5. FTA/NCDOT Transit Revenue Fixed N/A 6. Other Intergovernmental Revs. See text N/A F. Charges for Public Service Fixed N/A G. Charge for Recreation Programs Per capita $2.20 H. I. Miscellaneous Charges for Service Charges for General Govt. Services Fixed See text N/A N/A J. Charges for Public Safety Services Fixed N/A K. Fines and Forfeitures Per capita $3.39 L. Investment Income % of Prop. Tax 4.2% M. Other Revenue Fixed N/A N. Appropriated Fund Balance Fixed N/A 88 Tischler & Associates, Inc. Level of Service, Cost and Revenue Factors Wilmington -New Hanover County, North Carolina is 6. PUBLIC UTILITIES FUND The Public Utilities Fund is an enterprise fund used to account for the operations of the City's Public Utilities Department. The FY98 budget for the Public Utilities Fund totals $21,771,560. For reasons documented in a separate memo entitled "City/County Sewer and Water Issues", this enterprise fund is not factored in the fiscal impact analysis. This memorandum can be found in Appendix II of this document. 7. COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT BLOCK GRANT FUND The City receives Community Development Block Grant funds on an annual basis for housing, economic development and community development programs in eligible areas of the City. The City makes a General Fund contribution each year to cover the administrative costs associated with this Program. This contribution totals $137,400 in FY98 and will remain fixed in the fiscal impact analysis. 8. HOME INVESTMENT PARTNERSHIP FUND The City receives funds from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development on an annual basis to be used for neighborhood conservation loans and for rehabilitation and redevelopment of large tracts of land in distressed neighborhoods. The City General Fund covers the administrative costs associated with this Program. This contribution totals $24,200 in FY98 and will remain fixed in the fiscal impact analysis. 10. PARKING FACILITY FUND The Parking Facility Fund is used to account for the operations of the City's two downtown parking facilities. Revenues are primarily earned from hourly and monthly charges for parking'. In FY98, this Fund contains a contribution of $350,000 from the City's General Fund for possible City participation in the construction of a new public/private parking deck. This sort of contribution is not expected to continue and will not be factored in the fiscal impact analysis. In addition, for purposes of the fiscal impact analysis, this Fund will remain fixed as it is fee sustaining in nature. 0, 89 Tischler & Associates, Inc. Level of Service, Cost and Revenue Factors Wilmington -New Hanover County, North Carolina 11. SOLID WASTE MANAGEMENT FUND The Solid Waste Management Fund is used to account for operations of the Solid Waste Disposal program in the City. Revenues are earned primarily from monthly fees charged to solid waste customers based on the level of service chosen. The total budget for this Fund totals $3,712,000 in FY98 and includes a $58,000 contribution from the General Fund to subsidize solid waste services for low-income elderly and disabled citizens. A. Operating Costs Because of the Statutory requirements that the City contract with existing haulers in the annexation area for the first two years after annexation, the City's Annexation Studies project a deficit of $424,770 for the first year in the Phase I area and a deficit of $223,786 in the Phase II area. After two years, the City can competitively bid collection services as is done for the existing City routes services by private haulers. The Phase I deficit will be used as a proxy for the Phase III and Urban County areas in 1998 and 2010, respectively. It assumed after the initial two years that operating revenues will cover expenses on an annual basis. Operating Costs for Solid Waste Manacnement Fund Area Year Cost Annual Cost Phase I Annexation 1998 $424,770 Phase II Annexation 1998 $223,786 Phase III Annexation 1998 $424,770 Urban County 2010 $424,770 Source: City of Wilmin ton Annexation Studies 12. EQUIPMENT MAINTENANCE/REPLACEMENT FUND The Equipment Maintenance/Replacement Fund is used to account for the maintenance, repair, insurance and replacement of most City vehicles and equipment. Patrol vehicles are purchased from the Police Department budget and are maintained as part of the centralized fleet. The Fire Department is the only department that does not participate in the centralized program. As these charges are already accounted for in the Departmental operating budgets, this Fund will not be factored in the fiscal analysis. 90 Tischler & Associates, Inc. r • Level of Service, Cost and Revenue Factors Wilmington -New Hanover County, North Carolina 13. GOLF COURSE ENTERPRISE FUND The Golf Course Enterprise Fund is used to account for the operations of the Municipal Golf Course. Since this is an entirely fee sustaining operation it will not be factored in the fiscal impact analysis. 91 Tischier & Associates, Inc. Level of Service, Cost and Revenue Factors Wilmington -New Hanover County, North Carolina APPENDIX I • 92 Tischler & Associates, Inc. Level of Service, Cost and Revenue Factors Wilmington -New Hanover County, North Carolina • 94 APPENDIX II Tischler & Associates, Inc. Tisch & AssocLkm, INC. 4701 Sangamore Road Suite N210 Bethesda, MD 20816 (301) 320-6900 Fax: (301) 320-4860 80 Annandale Road Pasadena, CA 91105-1404 (818)790-6170 Fax: (818) 790-6235 (800)424-4318 Fiscal Impact Analysis Capital Facility Analysis Impact Fee Systems Growth Policy Planning Economic and Market Analysis s MEMORANDUM To: Andrea Surratt, Planner III City of Wilmington Planning Department From: Tischler & Associates, Inc. (TA) Date: April 28, 1998 Subject: City/County Water and Sewer Issues Based on numerous conversations with City and County staff and review of City annexation studies and budget information, TA recommends against including City/County Water and Sewer operations in the fiscal impact analysis. Some of the reasons for this recommendation are provided below: • The Phase I and II Annexation Studies prepared by the City contain detailed information regarding operating and capital impacts as a result of annexation by the City. The same information does not exist for the Phase III area and Urban County. 9 • There are numerous issues that need to be resolved before a realistic analysis can be completed. For example, does it make sense for both the City and the New Hanover County Sewer and Water District to provide wastewater treatment in the Phase I and II annexation areas? What areas will each entity provide service to in the Phase III area and Urban County? Will the County continue with planned capital improvements in the Phase III area and Urban County if annexation is a real possibility? • Both the City and County provide public utility service through an Enterprise Fund arrangement. Therefore, regardless of what happens, it can be argued that rates would be adjusted as necessary to cover increases in operating costs and debt service payments. Because of these points, we feel that including these enterprise funds as part of the analysis will only serve to "muddy the waters", when the bottom line of this analysis is the cost to the General Fund. Please call with any questions or comments. • MUNIES, FISCALS $ CRIM Fiscal impact systems tailored for each community �K __ .... ..... Fiscal Impact of Providing Services. in 1998 and 2010 For Wilmington -New Hanover County, North Carolina June 22, 1998 Prepared By: Tischler &Associates, Inc. Bethesda, Maryland Pasadena, California TAR & ASSOCIATES, INC. 4701 Sangamore Road Suite N210 Bethesda, MD 20816 (301)320-6900 Fax: (301) 320-4860 80 Annandale Road Pasadena, CA 91105-1404 (818)790-6170 Fax: (818) 790-6235 (800)424-4318 Fiscal Impact Analysis Capital Facility Analysis Impact Fee Systems Growth Policy Planning Economic and Market Analysis June 22, 1998 k Ms. Andrea Surratt City of Wilmington Development Services Department PO Box 1810 Wilmington, NC 28402 Dear Andrea: TA is pleased to present the Fiscal Impact of Providing Services in 1998 and 2010 Report. This report evaluates the fiscal impact of providing services in 1998 and 2010. These impacts were evaluated from a Countywide, Nonurban, and Urban perspective. Evaluations were performed using TA's FISCALS software designed exclusively for City of Wilmington and New Hanover County. The following are major observations from the analysis: • Although the results for the Urban Service Area are fiscally neutral in 1998, the analysis clearly shows that in 2010, the City benefits from existing economies of scale that allow the provision of urban services to contiguous geographies. The individual service areas that comprise the Urban Service Area generate combined net revenues of $25.4 million in 2010. • New development generates net deficits for the Countywide Service Area, primarily because of schools. In 2010, as would be expected, improved levels of service generate greater deficits in all cases, $28 million higher in the Countywide Service Area and $27 million higher in the Nonurban Service Area. • Both the City and County benefit from the City providing urban services in lieu of the nonurban services (certain Sheriff and General Government services) provided by the County. One major reason is the cost economies from the City providing some services (certain Sheriff and General Government services) previously provided by the County. The second major reason is that although the County no longer provides these Sheriff and General Government services, it receives the same tax revenue, thereby realizing a significant cost savings of about $1.4 million in 2010. Please let us know if you have any questions. Sincerely, L. Carson Bise, II, AICP • MUNIES, FISCALS & CRIM Fiscal impact systems tailored for each community TABLE OF CONTENTS I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY..................................................................................•.......1 A. Background.........................................................................................................1 B.-- --Service- Areas ... C. Fiscal Impact Results...........................................................................................4 1. Urban Service Area..........................................................................................5 2. Countywide Service Area................................................................................. 6 3. Nonurban County Service Area........................................................................7 4. Summary ..........................................................................................................7 II. METHODOLOGY AND MAJOR ASSUMPTIONS.................................................... 9 III. FISCAL IMPACT RESULTS UNDER EXISTING LEVEL OF SERVICE.................11 A. Results in 1998 and 2010..................................................................................11 1. Countywide....................................................................................................11 2. Nonurban County...........................................................................................12 2. City and Urban Service Areas........................................................................13 3. City and Urban Service Areas-Combined.......................................................14 B. Annual Results from 1998 to 2010.....................................................................15 1. Countywide....................................................................................................15 2. Nonurban County...........................................................................................16 3. Independent Service Areas............................................................................17 4. City and Urban Service Areas-Combined....................................................... 21 IV. A. FISCAL IMPACT RESULTS UNDER IMPROVED LEVEL OF SERVICE ..............23 Results in 1998 and 2010..................................................................................23 1. Countywide.................................................................................................... 23 2. Nonurban County........................................................................................... 24 B. Annual Results from 1998 to 2010.....................................................................24 V. EXPENDITURE DETAILS.....................................................................................27 A. Countywide Service Area -Existing vs. Improved Levels of Service....................27 B. Countywide vs. Nonurban Service Area.............................................................28 C. Urban Service Area...........................................................................................28 VI. APPENDIX I.......................................................................................................... 30 0 Tisa= & Assoam-Es, INc. 4701 Sangamore Road Suite N210 Bethesda, MO 20816 (301) 320-6900 Fax: (301) 320-4860 80 Annandale Road Pasadena, CA 91105-1404 (818)790-6170 Fax: (818) 790-6235 (800)424-4318 Fiscal Impact Analysis Capital Facility Analysis Impact Fee Systems Growth Policy Planning Economic and Market Analysis MUNIES, FISCALS & CRIM Fiscal impact systems tailored for each community 1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY A. Background The City of Wilmington and New Hanover County have contracted with Tischler & Associates, Inc. (TA) to evaluate the fiscal impact of providing public services in 1998 and 2010. These impacts will be evaluated from a Countywide, Urban and Nonurban perspective. In addition, for certain facilities and services, the fiscal impact of a higher level of service will be calculated. As a first step in the fiscal analysis, TA prepared the "Level of Service, Cost and Revenue Assumptions" (LOS) document (April 28, 1998), discussing City and County services and facilities impacted by new growth and annexation. The impacts from both residential and nonresidential developments are evaluated. The level of service, cost and revenue assumptions are based on TA's on -site interviews with the service providers, in addition to an evaluation of the FY98 Budget. Both operating and capital costs are inciuded in the analysis. The level of service assumptions have been utilized in combination with demographic and employment projections to calculate the fiscal impact of growth on the City of Wilmington and New Hanover County budgets for the 13-year period between 1998 and 2010. Ca lculations alculattons will be performed using TA's FISCALS software designed exclusively for the City of Wilmington and New Hanover County. B. Service Areas The impact of growth on three geographic layers is analyzed. The geographic layers are as follows and can be found in Appendix I of this document. Countywide: The seven Countywide service categories evaluated include public schools, community college, human services, culture/library, culture/parks, sheriff and general government. The four categories in which an improved level of service is considered are community college, schools, culture/library, and culture/parks. The demand base for the Countywide service area is shown in the table below. s • • Demand Base Information Countvwide Service Area 1997 1998 2010 Increase Absolute % Category Estimate Projection Projection 1997.2010 Increase Population 149,211 151,611 180,417 31,206 21% Employment Retail 28,669 29,085 34,072 5,403 19% Office 15,100 15,316 17,914 2,814 19% Flex' 14,771 14,973 17,394 2,623 18% Total 58,540 69,374 69,380 10,840 19% Housing Single Family 41,292 41,915 49,388 8,096 20% DuplexiTownhome 5,496 5,723 8,451 2,955 54% Apartment 10,321 10,459 12,117 1,796 17% Mobile Home 3,785 3,785 3,785 0 0% Total 60,894 61,882 73,741 12,847 21% Nonresidential Sq. Ft." Retail 11,467,600 11,633,846 13,628,800 2,161,200 19% Office 3,653,550 3,814,162 4,520,100 866,550 24% Flex 6,930,113 7,222,240 8,691,332 1,761,219 25% Total 22,051,263 22,670,248 26,840,232 1 4,788,969 22% 'Flex space is a space utilized for various industrial uses with 10°k-20% of the space utilized for office activity **The nonresidential square footage is based on the assumptions contained in the following two tables The 1997 County population estimate is 149,211. Between 1997 and 2010, population in the Countywide Service Area is projected to increase by 31,206 persons, a 21 % increase. The 1997 County housing unit estimate is 60,894. Housing units are projected to increase by 12,847 to 2010, or 21 % The 1997 County employment estimate is 58,540. Between 1997 and 2010, employment in the Countywide Service Area is projected to increase by 10,840, or 19%. The resulting nonresidential square footage increase is projected at 4.7 million square feet. Nonurban: The proxy for the Nonurban service area is the existing level of services as provided by the County. The Nonurban services are the seven Countywide services. However, cost to provide certain services such as Sheriff patrol functions and General Government activities such as Planning & Zoning are assumed to decrease as the City provides services to Urban portions of the County in 1998 and 2010. The demand base for the Nonurban service area is shown in the table below. The negative numbers reflect the annexation of this area by the City and the loss of Nonurban Service Area population and employment 2 Tischler & Associates, Inc. Demand Base Information Non -Urban Service Area 1997 1998 2010 Increase Absolute % Category Estimate' Projection" Projection" 1997-2010 Decrease Population 85,047 51,334 31,935 53,112 -62% Employment Retail 10,148 5,415 2,440 (7,708) -76% Office 5,050 2,347 1,230 (3,820) -76% Flex' 9,914 8,254 6,851 3,063 -31% Total 25,112 16,016 10,521 14,591 -58% Housing Single Family 26,638 15,204 6,886 (19,752) -74% Duplex/Townhome 2,251 592 443 (1,808) -80%, Apartment 447 473 - (447) -100% Mobile Home 3,285 2,153 1,156 2,129 -66% Total 32,621 18,421 8,485 24,136 -74% Nonresidential Sq. Ft Retail 4,059,200 2,165,815 976,000 (3,083,200) -76°% Office 1,090,800 506,969 265,680 (825,120) -76% Flex 4,292,762 3,574,115 2,966,483 1,326,279 -31% Total 9,442,7621 6,246,899 4,208,163 5,234,599 -55% Includes Non -Urban and Urban County areas "Urban County becomes part of Urban Service Area 'Nonresidential square footage was estimated using the following factors developed by the Urban Land Institute: 400 sq. ft. (Retail), 216 sq. ft. (Office), and 433 (Flex) The 1997 Nonurban Service Area population estimate is 85,047. For Nonurban services (Planning/Engineering and Sheriff patrol), the population base is projected to decrease by 33,713 persons in 1998, as the Phase I, II, and III annexation areas no longer receive these Nonurban services. Nonurban population is expected to decrease by another 19,399 persons in 2010, when the Urbanized County receives urban levels of service. This decrease of 53,112 persons between 1997 and 2010 is a 62% decrease. Nonurban housing units are projected to decrease by 14,200 in 1998 and 9,936 in 2010, for a total decrease of 24,136, or 74%. The 1997 County employment estimate is 25,112. Nonurban employment is projected to decrease by 9,096 in 1998 and 5,495 in 2010, for a total decrease of 14,591, or 58%. Urban: The City of Wilmington, the three annexation areas, and an urbanized portion of the County comprise the urban service area. The service categories evaluated are police, fire, roads, general government, parks and recreation, and development services. The demand base for the Urban service area is shown in the table below. 4 • Tischler & Associates, Inc. • Demand Base Information Urban Service Area 1997 1998 2010 Increase Absolute % Category Estimate* Projection** Projection*** 1997-2010 Increase Population 64164 100,277 148,482 84,318 131% Employment Retail 18,521 23,670 31,632 13,111 71% Office 10,050 12,969 16,684 6,634 66% Flex* 4,857 6,718 10,543 5,686 117% Total 33,428 43,358 58,859 25,431 76% Housing Single Family 14,654 26,711 42,502 27,848 190% DuplexiTownhome 3,245 5,132 8,008 4,763 147% Apartment 9,874 9,987 12,117 2,243 23% Mobile Home 500 1,632 2,629 2,129 426% Total 28,273 43,461 65,256 36,983 131% Nonresidential Sq.Ft.**** Retail 7,408,400 9,468,031 12,652,800 6,244,400 71% Office 2,562,750 3,307,193 4,254,420 1,691,670 66% Flex 2,637,351 3,648,125 5,724,849 3,087,498 117% Total 12,608,601 16,423,348 22,632,069 10,023,568 79% *City of Wilmingon only **Assumes City and Phase I, II & III Annexation areas ***Adds Urban Portion of County —Nonresidential square footage was estimated using the following factors developed by the Urban Land Institute: 406 sq. ft. (Retail), 255 sq. ft. (Office), and 543 (Flex) The 1997 City (Urban Service Area) population estimate is 69,164. In 1998, population is projected to increase by 36,113 as urban services are extended to the Phase I, II, and III annexation areas. Population increases by another 48,205 persons between 1998 and 2010, as the Urbanized County receives urban services. This increase of 84,318 persons between 1997 and 2010 is a 131% increase. The 1997 County housing unit estimate is 60,894. Housing units are projected to increase by 12,847 to 2010, or 21 % Urban Service Area housing units are projected to increase by 15,188 in 1998 and 21,795 in 2010, for a total increase of 25,431, or 131%. The 1997 City employment estimate is 33,428. Between 1997 and 2010, employment in the Urban .Service Area is projected to increase by 25,431, or 76%. The resulting nonresidential square footage increase is projected at 10 million square feet. C. Fiscal Impact Results The fiscal impacts of providing services to the Countywide, Nonurban and Urban Service Areas are shown in the chart and table below. All results are those accruing to the City and County General Funds and include capital expenditures. 4 Tischler & Associates, Inc. Fiscal Results in 1998 and 2010 Under Existing Levels of Service $30, 000 — -- ---- $25, 000 $20,000 $15,000 131998 c$10,000 $5, 000 ■ 2010 $0 $81 000)- Urban Service Area ($10,000) ($15,000) $8 782 Fiscal Results Under Existing LOS (in $1,000's) Service Area 1998 2010 Countywide Service Area $20 ($10,118) Nonurban Service Area $1,442 ($8,782) Urban Service Area $81 $25,405 The fiscal impacts of providing improved levels of service to the Countywide Service Area are shown in the table below. All results are those accruing to the County General Fund and include capital expenditures. 0 Fiscal Results Under Improved and Existing LOS (in $1,000's) Scenario 1998 2010 Existing LOS $20 ($10,118) Improved LOS ($25) ($38,114) Selected highlights from the analysis are discussed below: �. Urban Service Area • The provision of urban services by the City in 1998 to the Phase I, II, and III annexation areas results in modest net revenues of $81,000 in 1998. The Urban Service Area results in 1998 should be considered, within the margin of error, as fiscally neutral. • Of the individual service areas, the Phase I annexation area produces the best result in 1998. The extension of urban services to this area produces net revenues of approximately $2.2 million in 1998. This is a result of two key factors: 1) the value of property in this area (assessed base of $1.05 billion), and 2) projected sales tax revenues from retail sites within the area. 5 :7 Tischler & Associates, Inc. In 1998, the Phase II and III annexation areas generate net deficits of $.803 million and $1.3 million, respectively. The financial resources these areas provide, primarily in the form of property tax and local option sales tax, are not sufficient to cover the initial "startup" costs associated with providing a City, or urban level of service to these areas. The Phase II annexation area results are better than the Phase III annexation area due to higher property values and more retail square footage. In addition, the estimated startup costs are lower for this area. Although the results for the Urban Service Area are fiscally neutral in 1998, the analysis clearly shows that in 2010, the City benefits from existing economies of scale that allow the provision of urban services to contiguous geographies. The individual service areas that comprise the Urban Service Area generate combined net revenues of $25.4 million in 2010. 2. Countywide Service Area • The County's provision of current levels of service to new growth (assuming no loss in unincorporated area), results in net revenues of $20,000 in 1998. A major reason is that there are no major capital facilities constructed in 1998. When improved levels of service are considered, the Countywide Service Area generates a net deficit of $493,000. • The Countywide Service Area generates a net deficit of $10.1 million in 2010. The debt service payment alone in 2010 for schools, community college, parks and • libraries are more than total revenues generated from new growth. • The analysis shows that under existing levels of service, the existing County tax base will have to subsidize new growth between 1998 and 2010. This leaves no room for consideration of level of service increases. • The cost for school capital facilities to serve new growth totals $136 million before interest. The County currently does not collect impact fees. This should be given serious consideration in light of the Board of Education's desire to implement a $257 upgrade, repair and modernization program. • When improved levels of service are considered, the Countywide Service Area generates a net deficit of $38 million in 2010. The cumulative difference in expenditures between improved and existing levels of service is $199 million. • The greatest difference in expenditures between existing and improved levels of service is school capital expenditures. Under improved levels of service, the increase in debt service payments to implement the Board of Education's plan to relieve overcrowding and use of non-traditional space is $164 million more over the 12-year period. [.1 Tischler & Associates, Inc. 3. Nonurban County Service Area When it is assumed that the County loses a portion of it's unincorporated area (Phase I, II, and III annexation areas) to the City in 1998, revenues of $1.4 are generated. Assuming that the County's cost to maintain the current level of service for certain County functions (Sheriffs patrol and Planning) decreases with the loss of unincorporated County, there are cost savings of $1.4 million in 1998 in the Nonurban County. In 2010, the Nonurban County generates a net deficit of almost $8.7 million. This deficit would be about $10.1 million if urban services were not extended to an additional portion of the unincorporated County (Urban County Service Area) in 2010. The result of the County no longer having to provide certain services in this area results in cost savings of $1.3 million in 2010. • As indicated above, the provision of County services to new growth generates net deficits. 4. Summary Although the results for the Urban Service Area are fiscally neutral in 1998, the analysis clearly shows that in 2010, the City benefits from existing economies of scale that allow the provision of urban services to contiguous geographies. The individual service areas that comprise the Urban Service Area generate combined net revenues of $25.4 million in 2010. • Both the City and County benefit from the City providing urban services in lieu of the nonurban services (certain Sheriff and General Government services) provided by the County. One major reason is the cost economies from the City providing some services (certain Sheriff and General Government services) previously provided by the County. The second major reason is that although the County no longer provides these Sheriff and General Government services, it receives the same tax revenue, thereby realizing a significant cost savings of about $1.4 million in 2010. • New development generates net deficits for the Countywide Service Area, primarily because of schools. In 2010, as would • be expected, improved levels of service generate greater deficits in all cases, $28 million higher in the Countywide Service Area and $27 million higher in the Nonurban Service Area. The fiscal findings for the Countywide and Nonurban Service Areas indicate the need for New Hanover County to consider new sources of revenue to subsidize new growth. If additional sources are not found, or existing sources increased, new growth in the County will be subsidized by the existing development base. A continuation of this trend could lead to decreased levels of service in the future. 7 Tischler & Associates, Inc. • The economies of scale found in General Fund services in the analysis of the Urban ` Service Area suggest that economies may also exist in the Enterprise Funds (i.e. Sewer and Water). • • The fiscal findings in all three service areas suggest that further analysis be completed regarding the duplication of services (i.e. Planning, Engineering, Parks and Recreation, Fire, Sheriff/Police etc.). 0 Tischler & Associates, Inc. II. METHODOLOGY AND MAJOR ASSUMPTIONS The analysis projects the fiscal impacts of providing services in 1998 and 2010 based on the current level of service. The FY98 budgets are used as a baseline since they are representative of the current fiscal year operations for each jurisdiction. Constant 1998 dollars are used throughout the study. The FY98 (1997) population, housing unit and employment levels are used. These values are used to calculate unit costs and service level thresholds. In order to provide an understanding of the overall methodology used in this fiscal impact analysis, a brief explanation of the FISCALS process follows. The FISCALS software utilizes two types of input data. The first category of demographic/economic projections is called Demand Base data inputs. These numerical projections include data such as population, housing units, employment, and commercial and industrial space. The 1997 population and job estimates, in addition to the current number of dwelling units, were used to calculate unit costs and - service level thresholds. These estimates were provided by the City of Wilmington and New Hanover County Planning Departments. The second type of input data relates to the government service levels, costs and revenues. The government service level, cost and revenue data used in the fiscal analysis have been determined and agreed upon by TA and City of Wilmington and New Hanover County personnel. This data has been incorporated into TA's FISCALS system to calculate the annual costs, revenues, and capital facilities by department or function, where appropriate. The following major assumptions regarding the fiscal methodology should be noted: Marginal, Growth -Related Costs and Revenues: For this analysis, costs and revenues that are directly attributable to new development or from the annexation of existing development are included. Both operating and capital costs are taken into consideration. Wherever possible, a marginal cost approach is used. In some cases, the data used are average costs, based on a decision by the City and County staffs and TA that this is the best information available at this time. Some costs are not expected to be impacted by demographic changes, and:. may be fixed in this analysis, such as some administrative functions. In some cases, there is a realization that costs are semi -variable. A best estimate was then made by the department personnel and TA, using proxy percentages. Level of Service: The costs projections are based on the assumption that the current level of spending, as provided in FY98 budgets, will continue through the 13-year analysis period. The current level of spending is referred to as the current level of service (LOS) in this type of analysis. TA also analyzed the fiscal impact of providing improved levels of service for certain Countywide and Nonurban services. • Tischler & Associates, Inc. 0' Revenue Structure and Tax Rates: Revenues are projected assuming that the current revenue structure and tax rates, as defined by the FY98 adopted budget, will not change during the analysis period. Inflation Rate: The rate of inflation is assumed to be zero throughout the projection period, and cost and revenue projections are in constant 1998 dollars. This assumption is in accord with current budget data and avoids the difficulty of speculating on inflation rates and their effect on cost and revenue categories. It also avoids the problem of interpreting results expressed in inflated dollars over an extended period of time. Non -Fiscal Evaluations: It should be noted that while a fiscal impact analysis is an important consideration in planning decisions, it is only one of several issues that should be considered. Environmental and social issues, for example, should also be considered when making planning and policy decisions. The above not withstanding, this analysis will enable interested parties to understand the fiscal implications of future development. Tischler & Associates, Inc. III. FISCAL IMPACT RESULTS UNDER EXISTING LEVEL OF JW-' SERVICE The fiscal impacts are discussed in terms of the cost to provide services in 1998 and in 2010. For the Countywide Service Area, all results are those accruing from new population and employment growth. For the Nonurban Service Area, all results are those accruing from new population and employment growth and from the loss of unincorporated area in 1998 and 2010, as the City is assumed to provide urban levels of services to these areas. For the Urban Service Area, results are those accruing from both new population and employment growth and from the assumed annexation of County land. A. Results in 1998 and 2010 1. Countywide The chart below shows the fiscal impacts of new growth to the County from 1998 to 2010, assuming the current level of service is maintained, and the County loses no unincorporated area as a result of annexation. Net Fiscal Results in 1998 and 2010 Countywide Service Area $2,000 $0 v ($2,000) 0 c ($4,000) r= ($6,000) ($8,000) ($10,000) ($12,000) As can be observed from the chart, new growth generates net revenues of $20,000 to the County in 1998. This should be considered, within the margin of error, as fiscally neutral. Over time, however, revenues from new growth are not enough to cover the associated costs. In 2010, revenues from new growth are $10 million less than what is needed to maintain the current level of service. Major reasons for these results are summarized below. 11 • • Tischler & Associates, Inc. -� Modest revenues of $20,000 are generated in 1998 because there are no major capital facilities constructed in 1998, other than a Library expansion and a $500,000 expenditure for Park development. • The Countywide Service Area generates a net deficit of $10.1 million in 2010. The debt service payment alone in 2010 for schools, community college, parks and libraries are more than total revenues generated from new growth. 2. Nonurban County The chart below shows the fiscal impacts of new growth to the County from 1998 to 2010, assuming the current level of service is maintained, and the County no longer provides certain General Government and Sheriff services to the areas that are assumed to receive urban services from the City in 1998 and 2010. As can be observed from the chart, the cost to provide existing levels of service generates net revenues to the Nonurban County in 1998. Over time, however, revenues from new growth are not enough to cover the associated costs. Major reasons for these results are summarized below. • Initial revenues of $1.4 million are generated in 1998 because it is assumed the County loses a portion of its unincorporated area in 1998, to which urban services have been extended by the City. This means that in order to maintain the current level of County services, certain General Government functions, such as. Planning and Engineering are scaled back, as these departments essentially serve the unincorporated County, whereas other General Government function are truly Countywide in nature. This same type of relationship is also applicable to certain Sheriffs Office functions, such as patrol. This assumption results in cost savings of $1.4 million dollars in 1998. • 12 Tischler & Associates, Inc. • The Nonurban County generates a net deficit of $8.7 million in 2010. This deficit would be even higher if it weren't assumed that urban services were extended to an additional portion of the County (Urban County Service Area) in 2010. The result of the County no longer having to provide certain services to the Urban County results in a cost savings of $1.3 million in 2010. 2. City and Urban Service Areas The chart below shows the fiscal impacts for the City and each Urban Service Area in 1998 and 2010, assuming the current level of service is maintained in the City for new growth and urban levels of service are provided to the Urban Service Areas in 1998 and the urban portion of the County in 2010. Net Fiscal Results in 1998 and 2010 City and Urban Service Areas $15,000 $13 AA o $10,000 o CL $5, 501 $5,000 $2 805 ❑ 1998 $2,182 $2,056 $0 $79 $1,499 S 2010 City Phase I Phase II phak�ee Ili Urban ($5,000) ($803) ($1,378) Coun 'Urban County does not become a service area until 2010 As can be observed from the chart, the Phase I annexation area and City are the only areas that produce revenues in 1998. The Phase I and II annexation areas produce net deficits in 1998, with the Phase III annexation area producing the poorest results, a net deficit of $1.3 million. When urban services are extended to the Urban. County in 2010, the existing population and employment base is large enough to generate net revenues of $13.5 million. In the other areas, revenues from new growth increase at faster rates over time than expenditures and all areas generate net revenues in 2010, with the Phase I annexation area generating net revenues of $5.5 million, followed by the City ($2.2), Phase II annexation area ($2.0) and Phase III annexation area ($1.5 million). Major reasons for these results are summarized below. 13 Tischler & Associates, Inc. 1998 • • The Phase I area produces the best result in 1998. The extension of urban services to this area produces net revenues of approximately $2.2 million in 1998. This is a result of two key factors: 1) the value of property in this area (assessed base of $1.05 billion), and 2) projected sales tax revenues from retail sites within the area. Under existing levels of urban service, new residential and nonresidential development generates modest net revenues of $79,000 to the City in 1998. This could be considered, within the margin of error, as fiscally neutral. The main reason for the positive result is the relative lack of capital facility needs to serve the projected increase in City population and employment in 1998 of 1,054. In 1998, the Phase II and III annexation areas generate net deficits of $.803 million and $1.3 million, respectively. The financial resources these areas provide, primarily in the form of property tax and local option sales tax, are not sufficient to cover the initial "startup" costs associated with providing a City, or urban level of service to these areas. The Phase II annexation area results are better than the Phase III annexation area due to higher property values and more retail square footage. In addition, the City's estimated startup costs are lower for this area. 2010 • The Urban County generates the best result in 2010, with the extension of urban services to this area producing net revenues of $12,605. This is the result of an existing `tax base of almost $3.2 billion at the time urban service is extended. • The Phase I annexation area produces the second best result in 2010, with net revenues of $5.5 million. This is again due to the high tax base ($1.05 billion) that is absorbed in 1998 and from this area having higher rates of growth between 1998 and 2010 than the Phase I and II annexation areas. • The Phase II and III annexation areas each produce net revenues in 2010, $2.0 and $1.5 million, respectively, after generating net deficits in the initial year urban services are extended. This is because, over time, revenues generated from new growth are added to the already substantial existing tax bases of these areas ($535 million and $589 million, respectively) and,a portion the initial startup costs for these areas are retired, thereby allowing net revenues to begin to generate. • The Phase II annexation area produces better results in 2010 than the Phase III annexation area because of: 1) a higher existing tax base when urban services are extended, 2) a higher growth rate over the 13-year analysis period from which to capture new revenues, and 3) lower urban service startup costs in 1998. 3. City and Urban Service Areas -Combined The table below shows the combined fiscal impacts of new growth in the City and the extension of urban services to all three Urban Service Areas (Phase I, II and III 14 Tischler & Associates, Inc. annexation areas) in 1998 and 2010. The 2010 combined results include the Urban, County, which is assumed to receive urban services in 2010. 0" Combined Net Results (in $1,000's) City and Urban Service Areas Year Revenues Expenditures Net Result 1998 2010 $19,986 $55,687 $19,904 $30,283 $81 $25,405 As the table above indicates, the City and three Urban Service Areas combined generate modest net revenues in 1998 of $81,000, which could be considered within the margin of error, as fiscally neutral. In 2010, after the initial startup costs have been absorbed, the areas have added revenues from new growth to the existing base, and urban services are extended to the Urban County, the City, Phase I, II, III areas and Urban County, the City and three Urban Service Areas generate net revenues of $25.4 million in 2010. Although the combined results show that the provision of urban services is fiscally neutral in 1998, the analysis clearly shows that the City benefits from existing economies of scale that allow the provision of urban services to contiguous geographies. B. Annual Results from 1998 to 2010 Annual results are determined for the Countywide and Nonurban Service Areas, as well as for the City and each of the three urban service areas independent of one another. In addition, results are determined the combined areas. By showing the results annually, the magnitude, rate of change, and timeline of deficits and revenues can be observed. 1. Countywide The chart below shows the annual revenues to the County from new growth from 1998 to 2010, assuming the current level of service is maintained, and the County loses no unincorporated area due to annexation by the City. 15 Tischler & Associates, Inc. Net Results (Including Capital Facilities) Countywide Service Area $2, 000 $0 ($2.000) 1998 1 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 0 o ($4,000) ($6.000) ($8.000) ($10,000) ($12,000) The following points summarize the annual results for the Countywide Service Area: • The revenue curve starts off with slight net revenues in 1998 and begins a 3-year downturn as two elementary schools and one middle school open, the County makes three cash payments of $500,000 for Ogden Park development, and the main library is expanded. The debt service payments alone for schools and library expansion total $6.5 million in 2001. • Revenues turn upward in 2002 and 2003, once Ogden Park development is complete and the County does not incur additional bonded debt. • Revenues turn downward in 2004 and again in 2005, as an elementary school is opened and the Community College expands. • Revenues turn downward in 2007 as an elementary school and middle school open and again in 2009 when a high school is opened. • Revenues turn upward slightly in 2010, as there are no major capital facilities constructed. However, there is still a deficit :approaching $10 million in 2010, which indicates that the combination of additional capital debt costs and operating expenses are not being covered by the revenues from new growth. z Nonurban County The chart below shows the annual revenues to the County from new growth from 1998 to 2010 for that portion of the County not receiving urban services (the Nonurban Service Area). (The Nonurban area receives the current Nonurban level of service while the urban area receives urban services). The only difference between the Nonurban and Countywide Service Areas are the savings in costs from less Sheriffs, 16 Tischler & Associates, Inc. Planning and Engineering activities since the City has provided urban services to parts -Zt, of the County (Phase I, II, III annexation areas and Urban County). i' Net Results (Including Capital Facilities) Nonurban Service Area $4,000 $2, 000 0 $o g ($2,000k0 43 40 ($a,00o) ($6.000) ($8,�) ($10, 000) With the exception of 1998 and 2010: the revenues pattern for the Nonurban Service Area is the same as Countywide Service Area except, that the Nonurban Service Area generates greater revenues in 1998 as a result of cost savings from Sheriff and certain General Government activities when urban services are extended to portions of the 0County. The same situation occurs again in 2010, when urban services are extended to the Urban County. 3. Independent Service Areas This section discusses the following services areas, City of Wilmington, Phase I, II, and III annexation areas, and the Urban County. The charts below show the annual fiscal impacts from 1) the City, 2) Urban Service Areas, reflecting the Phase I, II and III annexation areas, and 3) the Urban County. It is assumed that Urban County has urban services extended in 2010. 17 • Tischler &Associates, Inc. s City of Wilmington Net Results (Including Capital Facilities) City of Wilmington $3.000 $2,500 $2,000 0 c $1,500 $1,000 $500 $0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 The following points summarize the annual results for the City from new growth: • Annual net revenues for the City start out modestly in 1998 and grow increasingly positive; and about at the same rate, each year thereafter. By 2010, annual net operating revenues are approximately $2.8 million. • The reasons for this steady annual increase in net revenues include 1) new population, housing and employment growth in the City from 1998 to 2010 is increasing in equal increments over the analysis time period so development can be accommodated more easily, 2) the additional increment is relatively small compared to the existing City base so there are many semi -variable or fixed costs, and 3) available capital facility capacities limit capital expenditures to park improvements, patrol vehicles and the City's portion of the Public Services operation facility. 18 Tischler & Associates, Inc. Phase I, II, and III Annexation Areas Net Results (Including Capital Facilities) Phase I Area $7, 000 $6,000 $5, 000 ) 0 $4,000 0 0 •-� $3, 000 �n $2,000 $1,000 $0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Net Results (Including Capital Facilities) Phase II Area $2,500 $2,000 $1,500 CD N c $1,000 $500 ($500p 0 ($1,000) 19 • • • Tischler & Associates, Inc. s Net Results (Including Capital Facilities) Phase III Area $2,L& $1,500 $1,000 w $500 0 o $0 ($500) S 1999 000 0 1 002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2 10 ($1,00o) ($1.500) {$2, 000) The following points summarize the annual results for the Phase I, II and III annexation areas: • The revenue patterns for the Phase I, II and III areas have essentially the same characteristics, except for the first year. The one exception being the Phase I area generates net revenues the first year urban services are extended, versus the second year for the Phase II and III areas. This is because the projected growth patterns between 1998 and 2010 are occurring in equal increments throughout the analysis period. For the remainder of the period, 1999 to 2010, the revenue curves for the Phase I, II and III areas turn sharply upward as the urban service startup costs have been absorbed and the areas begin to receive revenues from new growth. Revenues begin a gradual ascent for the next four years and then turn up sharply in 2003, as the initial Fire Department equipment lease purchase contract is retired. Revenues then turn down sharply in 2004 as the useful life expires for the original Police vehicles purchased when urban services were extended and new vehicles are purchased. Revenues then begin a gradual ascent in 2005 that continues until 2009. In 2010, revenues decline again as the useful life of the second group of Police vehicles end and additional vehicles are purchased. 20 Tischler & Associates, Inc. Urban County Net Results (Including Capital Facilities) Urban County $16,000 $14,000 $12,000 c $10,000 o $8, 000 $6, 000 $4,000 $2, 000 $0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Assumes urban services are extended in 2010 The following points summarize the annual results for the Urban County: • The Urban County revenue curve is rather simple to explain. From 1998 to 2009, the Urban County is assumed to receive County levels of service and therefore is not factored. In 2010, when urban services are extended, the existing tax base is so large that net revenues of $13.5 million are generated. This can be considered as an annual revenue stream. 4. City and Urban Service Areas -Combined The chart below shows the combined annual revenues from new growth in the City and from the extension of urban services to all three Urban Service Areas in 1998 and to the Urban County in 2010. 21 • Tischler & Associates, Inc. •!> Combined Net Results (including Capital Facilities) City and Urban Service Areas $30,000 $25,000 w $20,000 0 c $15,000 IT- 40). $10,000 $5,000 $0 -1 44 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2010 results assume urban services are extended to the Urban County • Annual net revenues for the combined results follow a similar pattern to that of the individual revenue curves of the Phase I, II, and III areas. Similar to these areas, the combined results increase sharply is 1998 as the urban service startup costs have been absorbed and the areas begin to receive revenues from new growth. • Revenues begin a gradual ascent for the next five years and then dip slightly in 2004 j. as the: useful life expires for the original Police vehicles purchased when urban services were extended and new vehicles are purchased. ev • Revenues then begin a gradual ascent in 2005 that continues until 2009. In 2010, revenues increase sharply as a result of absorbing revenues from the Urban County, as urban services are extended to this area. The findings in 2010 show that the City benefits from providing urban services in lieu of the nonurban services (certain Sheriff and General Government services) provided by the County. One major reason is the assessed value of the existing development base in the Phase I, II, III annexation areas and the Urban County. The second major reason is there are cost economies from the City providing some services (certain Sheriff and General Government services) that were previously provided by the County. 22 Tischler & Associates, Inc. IV. FISCAL IMPACT RESULTS UNDER IMPROVED LEVEL OF SERVICE The fiscal impact results are discussed in terms of the costs to provide improved levels of service in 1998 and 2010. For the Countywide Service Area, all results are those accruing from new population and employment growth. For the Nonurban Service area, results are those accruing from new population and employment growth between 1998 and 2009 and from the assumed ' loss of a portion of the existing population and employment base in 1998 and 2010, as a result of the City providing urban levels of service to these areas. There are no improved levels of service being analyzed for the Urban Service Area. A. Results in 1998 and 2010 1. Countywide The chart below shows the fiscal impacts of new growth to the County from 1998 tc 2010, assuming an improved level of service is provided for the Community College, Schools, Library system and Parks. As can be observed from the chart, new growth revenues are not enough to cover the improved levels of service assumed in this analysis in either time period. A net deficit of $25,000 is incurred in 1998. The cost to the County in 1998 to provide improved levels of service is approximately $45,000 more than providing the existing level of service. Under improved levels of service a net deficit of $38 million is incurred in 2010. This annual deficit is $28 million more than under existing levels of service. It is important to 23 • Tischler & Associates, Inc. note that the additional cost to provide the improved levels of service to the existing population is not included. 2. Nonurban County The chart below shows the fiscal impacts of new growth to the County from 1998 to 2010, assuming an improved level of service is provided, and the County no longer provides certain services to the areas that are assumed to receive urban services in 1998 and 2010. The four categories in which an improved level of service is measured are community college, schools, culture/library, and culture/parks. As can be observed from the chart, new growth generates net revenues to the Nonurban County in 1998 under improved levels of service. Over time, however, net deficits increase significantly over the levels associated with maintaining the current levels of service. Results for the Nonurban Service Area are slightly better than the Countywide Service Area as a result of the assumed cost savings associated with losing a portion of the unincorporated County. Under improved levels of service, the Nonurban Service Area results are almost $1.4 million better in 1998 and $1.3 million better in 2010. B. Annual Results from 1998 to 2010 Annual results are determined for the Countywide and Nonurban Service Areas. By showing the results annually, the magnitude, rate of change, and timeline of deficits and revenues can be observed. The charts below show the annual results for the Countywide and Nonurban Service Areas from 1998 to 2010, assuming increases in levels of service for schools, parks, 24 Tischler & Associates, Inc. community college and library. As a point of reference, each chart also shows the annual results under existing levels of service. Net Results Improved vs. Existing LOS (Including Capital Facilities) Countywide Service Area $10,000 $0 ($10,000) 1998 2 1 2 2003 2 2 0 0 0 ($20,000) ($30,000) ($40, 000) ($50,000) —�—Improved LOS tEAsting LOS Net Results Improved vs. Existing LOS (Including Capital Facilities) Nonurban Service Area $10,000 $0 1998 9 2000 2 1 2M-2 2603 2 2009 0 c {$10,000) 0 ($20,000) ($30, 000) ($40,000) --♦— Improved LOS --*—Existing LOS The following points summarize the annual results for the Countywide and Nonurban Service Areas under improved levels of service: • The revenue curve starts off with slight deficit in 1998. The revenue curve begins a 3-year downturn, just as under existing levels of service, as two elementary schools and one middle school open, the County makes three cash payments of $500,000 for Ogden Park development, and the main library is expanded. However, deficits are approximately $8 million more as a result of the first phase of school renovations begin (resulting in additional debt service payments of $7.4 million). 4-1 • • Tischler & Associates, Inc. • • • Whereas the annual results gradually decrease from 2004 to 2010 under existing levels of service, annual results decrease sharply in 2004 as debt service payments begin for phase II of school renovations and again in 2005 as debt service payments begin for additional community college space. Revenues level off in 2006 and 2007 and then turn downward in 2008, as debt service payments begin for phase III of school renovations. The revenue curve for the Nonurban Service Area follows the same pattern as the Countywide Service Area, with two exceptions in 1998 and 2010. In 1998, revenues occur as a result of losing unincorporated area to the City. It is assumed the County realizes cost savings for some General Government and Sheriff services. This happens again in 2010, as the Urban County receives urban services from the City. • Over the 12-year period the average annual net deficit to provide improved levels of service increases by $16.6 million for the Countywide Service Area. 26 Tischler & Associates, Inc. V. EXPENDITURE DETAILS A. Countywide Service Area -Existing vs. Improved Levels of Service The table below shows the cumulative General Fund operating and capital expenditures from 1998 to 2010 for the Countywide Service Area under existing and improved levels of service. This chart shows the difference between cumulative expenditures to provide improved levels of service versus existing levels of service. Cumulative Expenditures -Countywide Service Area Existing versus Improved Levels of Service Expenditure Existing LOS % Improved LOS % Difference General Government -Operating $2,704 1% $2,704 1% $0 Human Services -Operating $7,443 4% $7,443 2% $0 Human Services -Capital $319 0% $319 0% $0 Culture and Recreation -Operating $12,100 7% $15,744 4% $3,644 Parks -Debt Financed $3,596 2% $5,166 1% $1,569 Parks -Pay -as -you -Go $1,500 1% $1,500 0% $0 Libraries -Debt Financed $2,373 1% $4.649 1% $2,276 Libraries -Pay -as -you -Go $391 0% $620 0% $229 Schools -Operating $41,248 23% $41,248 11% $0 Schools -Capital $83,201 46% $247,976 65% $164.775 Community College -Operating $5,638 3% $13,374 4% $7.736 Community College -Capital $13,996 8% $33,199 9% $19,203 Public Safety -Operating $6,524 4% $6,524 2% $0 Public Safety -Capital $705 0% $705 0% $0 Total $181,738 100% $381,170 100% $199,432 Total cumulative expenditures under existing levels of service for the Countywide Service Area are $181 million. Of this amount, $75 million are for operating expenses and $106 million are for capital expenditures. Under improved levels of service, cumulative expenditures are $381 million. Of this amount, $87 million are for operating expenses and $294 million are for capital expenditures. The cumulative difference in expenditures under improved levels of service is $199 million. It should be noted that cumulative debt financed capital expenditures do not include the total life cycle principal plus interest payments for individual facilities, "just the cumulative total payments to 2010. • The greatest difference in expenditures between existing and improved levels of service is school capital expenditures. Under improved levels of service, the increase in debt service payments to implement the Board of Education's plan to relieve overcrowding and use of non-traditional space is $164 million more over the 12-year period. The County's share of operating costs is not expected to increase with the implementation of this plan. The total school costs (operating and capital) are 69% of the Countywide expenditures due to growth under the existing level of service and 76% under the improved levels of service. • MA Tischler & Associates, Inc. • The increased cost to provide more community college space per student results in cumulative capital expenditures of an additional $19 million in capital and $7 million in increased operating expenditures, for a total of $32 million. The cost to provide additional regional park land results is an additional $1.5 million in debt service payments in 2010 and $1.8 million in increased operating expenditures. The cost to provide additional library space per person results in cumulative debt service expenditures of $2.2 million. The increase in library space also increases operating expenditures by $1.8 million. Cumulative expenditures to provide more books per person in the County result in cumulative expenditures of $229,000. B. Countywide vs. Nonurban Service Area The table below shows the difference in cumulative expenditures between the Countywide and Nonurban Service Areas. With the exception of the three categories shown below, expenditures for County services that are truly Countywide in nature are the same in both Service Areas. Cumulative Expenditures Countywide versus Nonurban Service Area Countywide Nonurban Expenditure Service Area % Service Area % Difference General Govemment-0perating $2,704 26% $1,469 26% ($1,235) Public Safety -Operating $6,524 65% $3,653 65% ($2,871) Public Safety -Capital $705 9% $490 9% $215) Total $9,933 100% $5,612 100% ($4,321) As the table above indicates, Countywide Service Area cumulative expenditures are $4.3 million more than the Nonurban Service Area. This is a result of decreased expenditures in the Nonurban Service Area for General Government and Sheriffs Office functions. This is because it is assumed that in order to maintain the current level of service in the County, the costs to provide certain General Government functions such as Planning'''and Engineering will decrease as the unincorporated County land area decreases. This assumption is also applied to Sheriffs Office patrol activities. If the City is providing Police services to an area, then the Sheriffs Office is no longer the primary law enforcement provider in that area, therefore, it is assumed to reassign these officers to other parts of the County results in,an improved level of service. The assumed reduction in General Government activities (Planning and Engineering) as a result of urban service being extended to the Phase I, II and III annexation areas in 1998 and Urban County in 2010, results in a cumulative cost savings of $1.2 million over 12 years. The cost savings from a reduction of Sheriffs Office patrol activities are $3 million over 12 years. C. Urban Service Area The table below shows the cumulative expenditures for each Urban Service Area and the combined total of each. 28 Tischler & Associates, Inc. Cumulative Expenditures Urban Service Area Category City Phase I Area Phase II Area Phase III Area Urban County Combined Total General Government -Operating $4,915 $11,258 $9,024 $10,171 $1,360 $36,728 Police -Operating $7,462 $21,287 $14,052 $13,321 $2,893 $59,015 Police -Capital $615 $1,950 $1,348 $1,291 $1,159 $6,362 Fire -Operating $1,189 $20,225 $12,591 $13,650 $621 $48,276 Fire -Pay -as -you -Go $0 $1,045 $550 $1,045 $209 $2,849 Fire -Debt Financed $0 $2,267 $2,267 $2,267 $174 $6,975 Public Serv.& Fac: Operating $2,238 $10,406 $10,966 $9,776 $713 $34,099 Public Serv.& Fac: Pay -as -you -Go $0 $365 $287 $287 $365 $1,305 Public Serv.& Fac: Debt Financed $850 $850 $850 $850 $0 $3,400 Parks -Capital $902 $1,558 $1,520 $1,520 $2.932 $8,432 Roads -Pay -as -you -Go $0 $6.500 $6,500 $6,500 $500 $20,000 Roads -Debt Financed $0 $567 $567 $567 $44 $1,744 Total $18,170 $78,278 $60,522 $61,245 $10,970 $229,183 The Phase I annexation area generates the most cumulative expenditures of the five service areas, at $78 million. This is because population and employment in this area is the highest. The Phase III annexation area generates cumulative expenditures of $61 million, followed by the Phase II annexation area ($60 million), and City of Wilmington ($18 million). The Urban County generates almost $11 million in cumulative expenditures. Expenditures in this service area are the lowest since urban services are not extended until 2010. If urban services were extended to the Urban County in 1998, this area would have generated the most cumulative expenditures, given its large population base. In the Cit y of Wilmington, cumulative expenditures are highest for Police activities, with cumulative operating and capital expenditures of $8 million. The majority of these expenditures are for additional Police officers to serve the almost 9,000 person increase in population from 1998 to 2010. Cumulative expenditures for General Government functions are the second highest, at almost $5 million. Cumulative expenditures are highest for Fire and Police activities in the Phase I annexation area, with cumulative expenditures of $23.5 million and $23.2 million, respectively. In the Phase II annexation area, cumulative expenditures are the reverse of the Phase I area. Police activities account for the highest cumulative expenditures, at $15.4 million, and cumulative Fire expenditures are $13.3 million. This is because the City Fire Department estimates that it needs lest equipment to serve the Phase II area. In the Phase III area cumulative expenditures are highest for Fire, at almost $17 million, followed by Police at $14.6 million. Cumulative expenditures in the Urban County are actually only for 2010, as this is the year urban services are extended. Of the year 2010 expenditures, expenditures for Police are the highest, at $4.0 million. This is because 64 new Police officers must be hired in 2010 to provide an urban level of service to this area. The Fire Department requires the most "upfront" infrastructure to provide an urban level of service, however, equipment is acquired through a 5-year lease purchase agreement and new stations are debt financed over 20 years. • 29 Tischler & Associates, Inc. / Future Land Use Technical Reports Wilmington New Hanover County Comprehensive Plan Future Land Use of New Hanover County and Wilmington, North Carolina A Technical Report for the City and County Comprehensive Plan 1997-2010 November 1998 Prepared by the City of Wilmington, Planning Division 202 N. 3rd Street, 4 h Floor, Wilmington, NC 28401 (910) 341-3258 New Hanover County, Planning Department 414 Chestnut Street, Suite 304, Wilmington, NC 28401 (910) 341-7165 0 Future Land Use • New Hanover County and Wilmington, North Carolina A Technical Report for the County and City Comprehensive Plan 1997-2010 Table of Contents Pale 1. Introduction I-1 II. Summary II-1 M. Population III-1 IV. Vacant & Developed Land and Flood Plain IV-1 V. Housing Growth and Land Use V-1 VI. Employment Growth and Land Use VI-1 VII. Projected Future Land Use VII-1 • Vill. Alternative Future Land Use Scenario VIII-1 R. References R-1 A. Appendix A-1 • M • • I. Introduction The purpose of this Future Land Use report is to describe business and residential growth trends on vacant land in Wilmington and New Hanover County. This report is one of the updated technical reports for the Wilmington and New Hanover County Comprehensive Plan 1997- 2010! Growth trends are presented for employment and housing. The existing land use growth pattern for employment and housing is used to project a future growth pattern trend to the year 2010. Input from the Comprehensive Plan public forums was included in the Steering Committee recommendations and is presented as a proposed future land use alternative for land development and conservation. 1 The previous "Future Land Use of New Hanover County. " report is from September 1992. I-1 II. Summary Population Wilmington's population is projected to increase by approximately 9,000 people from 1997 to 2010. The County total is projected to increase by approximately 31,200 people. There will be continued pressure to develop vacant land in the City and County. Vacant & Developed Land and Flood Plain In 1997 land use in Wilmington was 24% vacant, 29% residential, 22% business, and 8% recreation. In 1997 land use in the unincorporated County was 50% vacant, 17% residential, 12% business, 2% recreation, and 4% agriculture. A vacant and developed land use map shows that the greatest development density is centered in the Wilmington urban area with the greatest vacant land in the northern portion of the County with a lesser amount in the southeast. Approximately 21 % of vacant residentially zoned land in the Planning Service Area (unincorporated County north of Snow's Cut and City) is in the flood plain. In the Planning Service Area, 32% of the vacant industrial land zoned for development, is in the flood plain, and 8% of the retail and 3% of the office vacant land is in the flood plain. Housing .Growth and Land Use In the Planning Service Area approximately 12,900 new units of housing are projected to be constructed between 1997 to 2010. For the projected growth from 1997 to 2010, 7,900 units will be constructed in the urban County, 4,000 in the City, and 900 in the non -urban County. A mapping model of projected residential growth from 1997 to 2010 shows that high growth will occur in the urban County, medium growth in the north and south County, and low growth in the small scattered lots in the City and in the extreme northwest County. Employment Growth and Land Use From 1990 to 1996 the four largest gains by job type were in services, trade, government, and construction. There were three job types with losses; manufacturing, agriculture, and transportation -communication -public utilities. This trend will likely continue into the next decade. A mapping model was used to project from 1997 to 2010 business land use growth on vacant land for retail, office, and industry. The model reveals where high, medium and low growth on vacant land will likely occur. Areas mapped for retail show that high and medium growth will occur on vacant land in the City and County along major arterial roads. Comparing this projected retail growth with • existing development shows a continuation of strip development along many City and County arterial roads. 0 Areas mapped for office type growth indicate that high and medium growth will mostly occur within Wilmington. The highest concentration of projected office growth is in the vicinity of the intersection of Shipyard Boulevard, Caroling Beach road and South 17'h Street. A challenge will be to provide adequate attention to site plan requirements for pedestrian sidewalks, aesthetics, road design, and traffic congestion through the Comprehensive Plan and zoning regulations. The largest amounts of vacant land for industrial growth in the high and medium projection categories from 1997 to 2010 is in the north unincorporated County along the Cape Fear River, Blue Clay Road, Castle Hayne-Holly Shelter Road area, and off Market Street south of Gordon Road. Much of this vacant land is outside of the Urban Service Area. About one-third of the land is within the 100 year flood plain. A challenge will be to address infrastructure needs and stormwater management concerns through the Comprehensive Plan, capital improvements, and zoning regulations. Projections for Future Land Use The land use projection from 1997 to 2010 shows that the amount of developed residential property in Wilmington will increase from 73%to 83%, leaving 17% vacant land. Business land will increase from 64%to 77%, leaving 23% vacant land. The land use projection from 1997 to 2010 for the Urban County area shows that the amount of developed residential property will increase from 54% to 67%, leaving 33% vacant land. Business land will increase from 71%to 941/6, leaving 6% vacant land. The Non -Urban County area land use projection from 1997 to 2010 shows that the is amount of developed residential property will increase from 23% to 26%, leaving 74% vacant land. Business land will increase from 40% to 41%, leaving 59% vacant land. As the vacant landscape become increasingly developed a larger amount of area is converted to roads. In 1997 15% of Wilmington's land use was composed of roads, the Urban County 10%, and the Non -Urban County 3%. Projections to 2010 are that an additional 2% more vacant land will be converted to roads. Approximately 21 % of the vacant residential zoned land lies in the 100 year flood plain. Eight percent of the retail, 3% of the office, and 32% of the industrial zoned land lies in the 100 year flood plain. Alternative Future Land Use Scenario The fidwe land use scenario presents flexible development, efficient use of urban services, increased density where appropriate, while striving to retain open space. The firture land use scenario presents flexible development, efficient use of urban services, increased density where appropriate, while striving to retain open space. H-2 40 III. Population The following table III-1 below and graph on the next page show the recent population changes and projected growth in New Hanover County and Wilmington from 1997 to 2010. The location of the Urban Service Area and Non -Urban Service Area noted in the table below, are show on page III-3. These two areas comprise the Planning Service Area which is the Unincorporated County north of Snow's cut and Wilmington. Wilmington's population is projected to increase by approximately 9,000 people from 1997 to 2010, and the County total is projected to increase by approximately 31,200 people. The table shows that the bulk of the County wide population growth is projected to occur in the Urban Service Area, at approximately 27,100 new people from 1997 to 2010. Wilmington and a largely urban area of the Unincorporated County comprise the Urban Service Area. The growth in the Non -Urban Service or more rural north and south portions of the County will constitute only a small amount of the growth, at approximately 2,200 new people.' The Urban Service Area is projected to grow at annual rates of approximately 1.6% per year. The Non Urban Service Area is projected to grow at a comparatively slower annual rate of approximately 0.9% per year. Table 111-1. Population Projections Growth/year Area 1997July 1997-10 2010July Increase'97to'10 Wilmington 64,164 1.0% 73,179 9,015 New Hanover County 149,211 1.5% 180,416 31,205 Urban Service Area 121,301 1.6% 148,392 27,091 Non -Urban Service Area 17,817 0.9% 19,998 2,181 Note the Urban Area and Non -Urban Area is delineated by the Urban Service Boundary. These two areas constitute the Planning Service Area. ' Note that the population estimates for the Non -Urban Service Area in this report exclude a small amount of residents south of Snows Cut, who presently live in the Unincorporated County, but are in the extra territorial jurisdiction of Carolina Beach and Kure Beach. The beach towns, Wrightsville, Carolina, and Kure are outside of the planning jurisdiction presented in this report. At time of press there are proposed annexation area by Wilmington Population and land use estimates of these proposed areas are excluded from this report. The population values are from the Office of State Planning with adjustment by the City and County Planning Offices. • Trend: Wilmington's population is projected to .increase by approximately 9,000 people from 1997 to 2010. The County total is projected to increase by approximately 31,206 people. There will be continued pressure to develop vacant land in the City and County. 200,000 180,000 160,000 140,000 c O 120,000 w ev 100,000 C- 0 80,000 IL 60,000 40,000 20,000 New Hanover County and Wilmington Recent Population Growth and Projections e New Hanover County —m— Wilmington 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 III-2 • .• • 0 0 PENDER COUNTY o L • ,.N 17 74 76 �� • 74 G00 32 MCI BRUNSWICK COUNTY I•r Pti s • S 421 N , T O op •° 9 ° Planning Service Area 4 � o • a` 1 Urban Service Area o 2 A Wilmington B Urban County 2 Non -Urban Service Area ,000 New Hanover County - Wilmington , j j I ACRES 1998 Comprehensive Plan . 2map.w i • • IV. Vacant & Developed Land and Flood Plain The 1997 land use for Wilmington and New Hanover County is presented in a map in the accompanying Existing Land Use technical report. The land use categories shown on the map are also listed in the table W-1 below. The main land use categories are residential, recreation, business, and vacant. Table IV-1. Generalized 1997 Land Use New Hanover County Developed Vacant Residential Business Single family Recreation Commercial Undeveloped Mufti -family Office & institutional Mobile home Utilities/transportation Industrial Agriculture The general land use is summarized in the table IV-2 below.' The areas are the Unincorporated County and City. Approximately 32% of the Unincorporated County land is developed and 50% is vacant (table below).2 Approximately 60% of the City land is Table IV-2. Land Use by Parcel 1997 Unincorporated County and Wilmington (in Acres and %) Unincorporated Countv Cfir % of Total Land % of Total Land Total Use by Parcel Total Use by Land by as a % of Land by Parcel as a % Land Use Category Acres Parcel Developed Acres Parcel of Developed Residential 18,854 17% 63% 5.744 29% 49% Business 13,881 39% 4,459 38% Office & institutional 2,447 2% 7% 2,176 11 % 19% Commercial 1,299 1 % 4% 1.107 6% 9% Transportation, utilities & communications 4,407 4% 12% 577 3% 5% Industrial 5,728 5% 16% 599 3% 5% Recreation 2,633 2% 7% 1,523 8% 13% Total Developed 49,249 32% 100% 16,185 60% 100% Agriculture 4,309 4% 61 0% Vacant Undeveloped 65,248 60% 4,679 24% Water 2,521 2% 77 0% Other (water right of way, unknown) 12,473 11 % 3.089 16% Total 109,919 100% 19.632 100% 1 The data in this table was collected in the field and entered into the computer GIS by the County and City Manning offices in 1997. • The remainder of land is composed of a minor amount of these categories; agriculture, water, and other. IV-1 developed and 24% is vacant. Trend: In 1997 land use in Wilmington was 24% vacant, 29% residential, 22% business, and 8% recreation.. Of the developed land in the Unincorporated County approximately 53% is residential, 39% is business and 7% is recreation (previous table). Similarly of the developed land in the City approximately 49% is residential, 38% business and 13% recreation. Trend: . In.1997.1and. use in the unincorporated County was 50% vacant, 17% residential, 12% 2% recreation, and 4% agriculture. The acres of total land use from the previous table IV-2 are summarized in the following two pie charts for the Unincorporated County and City.3 The City compared with the County is as follows: half as much vacant land (24% City vs. 50% County); twice the percent of land use for business (22% City vs. 12% County); four times by percent the amount of recreation land (8% City vs. 2% County); approximately twice the percent amount of residential land use (29% City vs. 17% County); and no agricultural land (0% City vs. 4% County). As one would expect the City Land Use 1997 Vacant Recreation 8 Unincorporated County Land Use 1997 Vacant 50% 24% :. Residential 29% ova Business 22410 itial 17% Business 12% ecreation 2% :ulture 4% 3 The categories water and other shown in the table on the previous page are not shown in the above pie charts. • IV-2 • comparison shows that the City has a greater percent amount of development compared with the Unincorporated County. Conversely, the Unincorporated County is more rural than the City. The map on the next page shows the vacant land and developed land in the City and County. As can be seen the majority of developed land is within the urbanized area, while the greatest amount of vacant land is primarily north and south of the urbanized area and generally away from the beaches. Trend: The greatest development density is centered in the Wilmington urban area with the greatest vacant land in the northern portion of the County and southeast County. The map on page IV-5 shows the location of the 100 year flood plain in the City and County. Table IV-3 below shows the percent of developed and vacant land that is in the 100 year flood plain 4 Generally the table reveals that the non -urban portion of the County has the highest amount of both developed and vacant land in the flood plain. Conversely, the more urban areas of the City and urban County have a lesser amount of developed and vacant land in the flood plain. Trend: An average of 21% of vacant residentially zoned land in the Planning Service Area (Unincorporated County north of Snows Cut and Wilmington) is in the flood plain. Table N-3. Land in the 100 Year Flood Plain (1997) Location Residential Developed Vacant Business Developed Vacant Wilmington 5% 7% 21 % Qii Urban County 10% 26% 10% 20% Non -Urban County 18% 19% 37% 34% County Service Area 11 % 21 % 27% 30% 4 See Appendix Tables A2 to A5 for details. IV-3 A 0 0 blew Hanover County Vacant & Developed land (1997) Legend Brunswick County Pander County Developed Land Vacant Land Urbanized SoundiYes F/77 Main Roads [:] Hyrfrography Lines Pender County 40 Brunswic r County 74 C) %K �,IIR O-Ch �" a }�� ..�, r :� Z r. , sad � � I Y'I 4 lkmch 'Kure Beach 0 rS Miles K/ — I • • • New Hanover County 100 Year Flood Plain Map N Y �t Legend New Hanover Co. Fender Co. Brunsw/ck Co. Water C�Mp RiH �' M pO.Md. 11/10W Urban/zed Boundrles FIVI Ma/n Roads 100 Year Floodpla/n Mun/c/pa/Boundrles Mmmdav 7eMnobp� M.p L...Yorl, mhotlmmm r� •. f j \ Fender unty 40 I If 17 'r pp % -� L - Ili• � �' ° �� , Brunswick County 7. 74 I 76 1 4.. wrbCM�p D V f+\ , Y i...Yti1 i.F � y 7e , p \ 6 Kr S f , ♦1 0 1 :! - ..,`1 rPIyy ' IV 1 _ UR+BYACIf C o,.....�.6f.-.... Z 4 • • Further inspection of appendix tables A3 to A5 reveals that most of the business land (vacant and developed) that lies in the flood plain is industry related as shown in the following table IV4. In the Planning Service Area (Unincorporated County north of Snow's Cut and Wilmington) approximately 32% to 35% of the industry land lies in the flood plain compared with approximately 8% for retail and 3% for office. Table Iv 4. Business Land in the 100 Year Flood Plain (1997) Location Retail Office Industry Wilmington Developed 5% 2% 49% Vacant 3% 2% 18% Urban County Developed 6% 6% 13% Vacant 5% 5% 32% Non -Urban County Developed 11 % 23% 39% Vacant 19% 0% 34% Planning Service Area Developed 6% 7% 35% Vacant 8% 3% 32% The map on the next page shows that the low lying flood plain areas follow creeks, adjacent estuaries, and the Cape Fear River. An area with a comparatively large amount of land in the flood plain is in the northwest portion of the County. Trend: In the Planning Service Area,32% of the vacant industrial land zoned for development, is in the flood plain; and 8% of the retail and 3% of the office vacant land is in the flood plain. In many areas of the City and County there are flooding challenges as a result of periodic intense rainfalls and storms. Developing vacant land within the flood plain, and maintaining existing developed land poses challenges in terms of livability, natural resources, stormwater management, economic well being, and water quality. IV-6 V. Housing Growth and Land Use The following table V-1 shows the projected housing unit growth for the City and the unincorporated County from 1997 to 2010.' The percent change column shows that Wilmington is projected to increase 14% by the year 2010. The urbanizing County area adjacent to the City will have a growth rate more than twice this amount at 32%. For the location of these areas see the map on page III-3. The non -urban service area in the County will have a similar growth rate to the City at 12%. Overall the Planning Service Area will have a projected growth of 21% from 1997 to 2010. Trend: In the Planning Service Area approximately 12900 new units of housing are projected to, be constructed between 1997 to 2010. Table V 1. City -County Projected Housing Units 1997-2010 # new Computer Units Units % units/ New Area Type Code Nov. 1997 2010 Change yr units Urban Service Area Wilmington Single Family 10,21 14,654 16,728 160 2,074 Duplex & Townhome 11,15 3,245 3,698 35 453 Apartment 12 9,874 11,251 106 1,377 Mobile Home 13,14 500 571 5 71 • Subtotal 28,273 32,248 14% 306 3,976 Urban County Single Family 10,21 20,548 25,211 359 4,663- Duplex & Townhome 11,15 1,938 4,317 183 2,379 Apartment 12 447 862 32 415 Mobile Home 13,14 2,129 2,621 38 492 Subtotal 25,062 33,011 32% 611 7,949 Total 53,335- 65,259 22% 917 11,924 Non -Urban County Single Family 10,21 6,090 6,759 51 669 Service Area Duplex & Townhome 11,15 313 443 10 130 Apartment 12 0 0 0 0 Mobile Home 13,14 1,156 1,283 10 127 Total 7,559 8,485 12% 71 926 Planning Service Area Single Family 10,21 41,292 48,698 570 7,406 (Urban & Non-Urb. Ser. Areas) Duplex & Townhome 11,15 5,496 8,458 228 2,962 Apartment 12 10,321 12,113 138 1,792 Mobile Home 13,14 3,785 4,475 53 690 Total 60,894 73,744 21% 988 12,860 • ' The housing data was collected in the field by the City and County planning offices in 1997. V-1 Trend: For the projected growth from 1997 to 2100, 7,900 units will be constructed in the urban County, 4,000 in the City, and 900 in the non -urban County. The figure V-1 below is a summation of the previous table V-1 and it shows the projected housing growth. The amount of projected new constructed units from 1997 to 2010 shows that; the City will add approximately 4,000 units, the urbanizing County approximately 8,000 units; the non -urban service area approximately 900 units; and the overall Planning Service Area approximately 12,900 new units. The Planning. Service Area is a summation of the urban and non - urban service areas. Figure V-1 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 Projected Housing Growth 1997-2010 Urban Service Area - Urban Service Area - Non -Urban Service Planning Service Area Wilmington County Area total The following four figures V-2 to V-5 show the relative amounts of housing types projected to be built from 1997 to 2010. The types are single family, duplex and townhome (also referred to as single family attached condominium), apartment, and mobile home. Figure V-5 is the Planning Service Area with a total housing count and it includes the urban and non -urban areas of the City and unincorporated County. The location of these areas is show on page III-3. Figure V-2 Urban Service Area - Wilmington Projected Housing Growth 1997-2010 2,500 2,000 1,500 Cn N 1,000 = 500 Single family Duplex & Apartment Mobile Home Townhome V-2 • • is • The majority of new construction City and County wide is projected to be 66% single family or approximately 7,400 units (see Figure V-5 on the next page for Planning Service Area). A comparison of the Figures V-2 to V4 shows that Wilmington will realize the most amount of apartment construction with approximately 1,400 units. The urban service area in the County is projected to have the largest amount of duplex and townhome construction at approximately 2,400 units. The non -urban County service area is projected to have a small amount of duplex and townhome construction at approximately 100 units. Most of the mobile home growth is projected to be in the urban service area of the County at approximately 500 units, and in the non -urban service area at approximately 100 units. Figure V-5 on the next page shows the Planning Service Area and the overall projection from 1997 to 2010 is approximately 7,400 single family units, 3,000 duplexes and townhomes, 1,800 apartments, and 700 mobile homes. Urban Service Area - County Projected Housing Growth 1997-2010 5,000 w 4,000 c 3,000 N 2,000 = 1,000 Single family Duplex & Apartment Mobile Home Townhome Figure V-3 Non -Urban County Service Area Projected Housing Growth 1997-2010 800 700 c 600 :3 500 c 400 'y 300 c 200 x 100 Single family Duplex & Apartment Mobile Home Townhome Figure V-4 V-3 Planning Service Area Urban and Non -Urban Service Areas Combined Projected Housing Growth 1997-2010 8,000 vw! 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 'G 3,000 c 2,000 = 1,000 Single family Duplex & Apartment Mobile Home Townhome Figure V-5 Projected Residential Growth Areas Map The following map on the next page shows projected growth areas 1997-2010 for residential housing in the unincorporated County and Wilmington. This map shows in spatial form the housing unit projected growth from table V-1 shown on page V-1. The map shows the general trend of how residential development could occur, but because of projection limitations not necessarily how development will occur. Nevertheless, it provides a useful tool for future planning. The future residential growth model components shown in the following figure V-6 are: housing growth 1997-2010; zoning; and undeveloped land. Future Residential Growth Mapping Model Components Maps and Data O V �=Il _=�M=A Housing Growth 1997-2010 Zoning Undeveloped Land Result Future Growth Areas 1997-2010 Residential Growth High, Medium, Low Figure V-6 V-4 • • • The three categories of growth are termed high, medium, and low as shown in the below table V- 2.2 High means that there is a high probability that development will occur on vacant residential land. The projected growth change for the high category from 1997 to 2010 is greater than 46%. The medium growth category probability is between high and low, and the projected growth is between 22% to 46% from 1997 to 2010. Low means that there is a low probability that residential development will occur on vacant land, and the projected growth is from 0%to 22%. Table V 2. Growth Rates for Residential Map Projections 1997-2010 High growth Medium growth Low growth greater than 46% 22% to 46% less than 22% growth Projected Residential Growth Map Analysis Analysis of high, medium, and low projected growth on vacant land from 1997-2010 on the map on the next page shows that certain areas of the County and City will grow at different rates. The location of these generalized growth areas are summarized in the following table V-3 on page V-6. Table v-3. Residential Growth Map Analysis 1997 2010 Projected Areas of Growth: High, Medium, and Low High ' Primarily in the Unincorporated County Urban Service Area adjacent to Wilmington. • Medium Non -Urban Service Area, north and south Unincorporated County. Wilmington; with larger sites in the South 17th Street Extension vicinity. • Low Scattered small sites in Wilmington Northwest portion of the Unincorporated County. Trend: A. mapping model of projected residential; growth from 1997 to 2010 shows that high growth will occur in the urban County, medium growth in the north and south County, and low growth in the small scattered lots in the City and in the northwest County. 2 Approximately 200 TATs or transportation analysis zones are in the County -City and were used in the model. M 0 • �f x 11 HC FUTURE RES6®ENTIAl GROWTH AREAS 1997 - 2010 Legend NHC Co. High Rea. Growth Med. Res. Growth Low Res. Growth El \yJfO�xoitn+o�' - MMo Any Urbanized 3oundries 100 year Floodplain Hydrography Municipal Roundries Brunswick County 1. i N tj mv asoyr�onp mro�manon sywwn� MSo L.U.:/AAMdWWb w most of the hi residential growth is High Projected Growth Areas. Generally gh projected to occur within the Urban Service Area of the unincorporated County (see map p. V-6). This area is between the red dashed line on the map and the green Wilmington municipal boundary. The growth is concentrated: largely within two miles of the coast line; in the vicinity of North Kerr Avenue, and north and south Gordon Road; and in the Monkey Junction area.3 Inspection of the existing residential developed land, (see Existing Land Use map in the back pocket of report) 14 with the projected future residential growth areas map (p. V-6) shows that much of the present and future residential development will be long distances away from retail areas (see Existing Land Use map). Employment map analysis in section VI of the report shows that retail land use has become primarily concentrated along a few arterial roads with strip development. This will raise policy challenges of declining service levels on arterial roads, with dependent automobile use, and a need for a more comprehensive bus system particularly in the Urban Service Area of the County. Medium Projected Growth Areas. The primary areas of medium projected residential growth (orange color on map on previous page) are: the Non -Urban Service Area in the north and south Unincorporated County, and in Wilmington especially in the South 17'h Street Extension vicinity. Low Projected Growth Areas. Generally the areas with low projected residential growth (see map p. V-6) are: scattered small sites in Wilmington; and the northwest portion of the Unincorporated County largely near the Cape Fear River. • 3 Near the intersections of Carolina Beach Road, Piner Road, Sanders Road and South College Road 4 New Hanover County generalized 1997 land use map. • V-7 0 VI. Employment Growth and Land Use The following table VI-1 shows New Hanover County employment projections by job type from 1996 to 2010. From 1990 to 1996 the following three job types decreased; agriculture, manufacturing, and transportation -communications -public utilities. The other five job types increased. The two largest increases were in the service and construction categories. It is debatable whether or not these trends will continue to the year 2010 and at what rates. The fourth column shows jobs as a percentage of 1996 County population. This projection by job type was done to the year 2010 with NC Office of State Planning population projections. The trend, should only be used as rough estimates due to unforeseen future changes in the economy. Table VI-1. Projected Job Types New Hanover County Change Jobs as a Trend Jobs as a per % of 1996 projection % of 2010 Job types _ 1990 1996 year population 2010 population Agriculture 303 270 -1.9% 0.2% 340 2.0% Manufacturing 9,500 8,590 -1.7% 6.0% 10,805 6.0% Construction 4,110 6,080 6.7% 4.2% 7,648 4.2% Transportation, communications, public utilities 3,620 3,590 -0.1 % 2.5% 4,516 2.5% Trade 18,250 22,880 3.8% 16.0% 28,780 16.0% Finance, insurance, real estate 2,470 3,100 3.9% 2.2% 3,899 2.2% Services 13,430 20,500 7.3% 14.3% 25,786 14.3% Government 11.340 12.950 2.2% 9.0% 16.289 9.0% • Total and % average 63,023 77,960 3.6% 143,430 98,063 180,416 To determine how much land will be used for business employment growth over the next 12 years to 2010, an estimate of future employment is needed.' In terms of generalized land use the employment sectors were grouped into retail, office, and industry (Table VI-2). These employment groups are used to calculate future land use needs in the City and County. Since the service trade has overlapping job types in the retail and office categories. It is estimated that one- half of service employees fit in the retail category and one-half in the office category. 1 Agriculture is a very small amount of the total County employment at 0.3%. For the projection estimates it was excluded, because it is estimated that there will be enough agricultural land to accommodate the market demand in the next 12 years. Government employees and hence land use needs are analyzed in the infrastructure section of the Comprehensive Plan. VI-1 •Table VI-2. Employment groups for future land use calculations to the year 2010 Retail Office Industry Wholesale trade Finance -insurance -real estate Construction Retail trade 12 of Service Manufacturing 12 of Service Transportation -communications -utilities The following three tables VI-3 to VI-5 show the employment projections for future land use planning areas of the County and City to the year 2010. The areas are the urban service area and the non -urban service area. Future employment is related to population growth to provide a realistic projection.2 Table VI-3. Retail Employment Projections Area 1997 2000 2005 2010 Increase'97-'10 Urban Service Area Wilmington 18,521 19,260 20,184 21,123 2,602 Urban County 7,974 8,690 9,592 10,509 2,535 Total 26,495 27,950 29,776 31,632 5,137 Non -Urban Service Area 2,174 2,253 2,351 2,440 266 Planning Service Area (total above) 28,669 30,203 32,127 34,072 5,403 Employment values from Wilmington Planning Div. July 1997 Transportation Plan data collection Projections based on keeping ratios with NO Office State Plan. population growth modified Wilmington Planning Div. & NHC Plan. Dept. Table VI-4. Office Employment Projections • Area 1997 2000 2005 2010 Increase'97210 Urban Service Area Wilmington 10,050 10,451 10,952 11,462 1,412 Urban County 3,954 4,311 4,763 5,222 1,268 Total 14,004 14,762 15,715 16,684 2,680 Non -Urban Service Area 1,096 1,136 1,185 1,230 134 Planning Service Area (total above) 15,100 15,898 16,900 17,914 2,814 : The 1997 employment data was collected in the field by the City -County Transportation Planning office. Future projections were compared with population growth trends within the County and by a method from Dr. William Hall economist at UNCW. These future land use projections were also used by Tischler and Assoc. for the Community Infrastructure section of the Comprehensive Plan In the infrastructure study the term "flex" was used to describe industry employment because some industry today is light manufacturing, and contains a - 10 to 20% "flexible amount" of office space. Most readers are more familiar with the term industry and therefore it is used in this report instead of flex. VI-2 is Table VI-5. Industry Employment Projections Area 1997 2000 2005 2010 Increase'97210 Urban Service Area Wilmington 4,857 5,051 5,293 5,539 682 Urban County 3,810 4,148 4,572 5,004 1,194 Total 8,667 9,199 9.865 10,543 1,876 Non -Urban Service Area 6,104 6,326 6,600 6.851 747 Planning Service Area (total above) 14,771 15,525 16,465 17,394 2,623 • Projected Growth Area Maps., Retail, Office, Industrial 1997-2010 Trend: A mapping model was used to project from 1997 to 2010 business growth on vacant land for retail, office, and industry.The model reveals by map where high, medium and low growth_on.vacant land will likely occur. The following figure VI-1 shows the components used in the future employment growth mapping model from 1997 to 2010. The resulting maps are shown on the following three pages. The maps show projected employment growth of the land from 1997 to 2010 in the unincorporated County and Wilmington. These maps present in spatial form the employment projections.. from the previous three tables on page VI-2 for retail, office, and industry. The maps are a projection of how development could occur and not necessarily how development will occur. However the model is a useful method to help plan for the future. Future Employment Employment Growth 1997-2010 Growth - Office Mapping Model 7 -Retail Components + - Industrial Housing Growth 1997-2010 Maps + and Figure VI-1 Data Zoning Undeveloped Land Result = Future Growth Areas 1997-2010 Retail High, Medium, Low Office VI-3 Industry • • 0 tj NHC FUTURE RETAIL GROWTH AREAS 1997 - 2010 N Legend NHC Co. High Retail Growth ''T Med. Retail Growth Low Retail Growth M.por.rdmnnane El Urbanized Boundries 100 YearRioodpisin li Hydrogrephy ❑ Municipal Boundries o•0_.NPh10b7f , d SYW. l M—Om TwhnoAW ra.p �oo.ron: �Manr rom \ \ � v r r 40 r , ` � a _ 17 . Brunswick County 74 74 �- 74 79 �l� _ v 7B Ella da•�:� • 1 l �< � �a c D .6 1 t J ��fwi NHC FUTURE OFFICE GROWTH AREAS 1997 - 2010 N Legend * i) ❑ NHC Co. High Office Growth Med. Office Growth Low office Growth F�FATIRTN�� ,wgo0n.nd.11110 a Urbanized Boundries 100 Year Floodpiain Hydrography Municipal Boundries a.o�DbMa mwon8y.fm. WO Ocft T.M-bDY U.p Lwow., Aftmmwb.w Pender unty \ G, 5 w. I •� 1 F ) A ) e" 1 1• , L J i t \ I ♦ ?, t _ 1�. \ o i C 1 - W �• n .♦ Brunswick \ County - WRION�� /•. Y f• 1pnO. o rc'rUeB.nch O _ Te 711 yr , / �OFIb ♦ \ a 7Ma . .. i iar 016 • • KI NHC FUTURE INDUSTRIAL GROWTH AREAS 1997 - 2010 N Lj y y Legend Z NHC Co. ■ High Indust. Growth ,,`7 Med. Indust Growth ❑ Low Indust Growth M.p On.ndm 11/lova U/f5anized Boundries 100 Year Floodp/ain '� Hydrography Municipal Boundri s'°°'�o°" "'°""""' �''"""• NlamWon T•W°°l°py M•p Lrod°n: /nhwdtrb�w Pendeuii • i Z 40 1. - Brunswick 0. County 7<74 ,� s �.7 W■IC M\ �h _ w kit - f Wj in y� 76 z -rol,. -' 42 c U .6 1 2 The three qualitative categories of growth by area are termed high, medium, and low as shown in the following table VI-6.3 High means that there is a comparatively high probability that a large number of jobs and hence development will occur. This development would be on vacant land, suitably zoned for retail, office, or industry. Low means that there is a low number of jobs projected for a given area. Therefore, there is a low probability that development will occur on suitably zoned vacant land as shown on the maps. The medium growth category is between high and low. Table VI-6. Growth Rates for Employment Map Projections 1997-2010 From 200 County Transportation Analysis Zones High growth Medium growth Low growth Greater than 166 jobs 16 to 166 jobs Less than 16 Projected Employment -Land Use Growth Map Analysis Analysis of the high, medium, and low growth areas on vacant land from the three projected employment maps (on pages VI4 to VI-6), shows that certain areas of the County and City will grow at different rates. These growth areas are summarized table VI-7 on page VI-9. Retail Growth. Generally most of the high and medium retail growth is projected to occur within the urbanized boundary as shown on the map (page VI4). The location of this boundary is also shown on the map on page III-3. High and medium growth is also projected to occur on a relatively large area of retail suitable land in the north County in the vicinity of 140 and Holly Shelter Road in the Castle Hayne vicinity, and south of Monkey Junction along Carolina Beach Road. Existing 1997 commercially used land is largely retail and is shown as red colored areas on the map (see Existing Land Use report, back pocket). Comparison of this commercial land with the projected retail growth areas map (page VI4) shows a continuation of strip development along many the City and County roads. 3 Determining numerical ranges of high, medium, and low was accomplished by reviewing the job growth and assigning the following intervals; low, 0-15 new jobs; medium, 16 to 166 new jobs; and high, greater than 166 new jobs. Approximately 200 TAZ's or transportation analysis zones are in the County -City and were used in the model 4 New Hanover County generalized 1997 land use map. i VI-7 Office Growth. Almost all of the office growth for the high medium and low trends y M1' is projected to occur within the current Wilmington city limits (page VI-5). There is also a relatively large parcel with high office growth potential off Military Cutoff. 0 Industrial Growth. The largest amounts of vacant land for industrial growth (page VI-6) in the high and medium categories, is projected to occur in the north Unincorporated County along the Cape Fear River, Blue Clay Road, Castle Hayne-Holly Shelter Road area, and off Market Street south of Gordon Road. The primary sites within the City with a medium potential for growth are south of Smith Creek. The low growth projections are scattered in northern County locations, along Smith Creek, Downtown, off Market Street, and along River Road. Trend: The largest amounts -of vacant land for industrial growth in the high and medium projection categories ,from 1997 to 2010 is in the north unincorporated County along the Cape Fear. River, Blue Clay Road, Castle Hayne-Holly Shelter. Road area, and off Market • Street south of Gordon Road. Much of this vacant land as outside of the Urban Service Area. LJ VI-8 Table VI-7. Employment Growth Map Analysis 1997-2010 Projected Areas of Growth: High, Medium, and Low. * Denotes comparatively large areas of vacant land. Retail High • Vicinity of North College Rd. and Gordan Rd. ' Market St. north of Gordon Rd. Eastern Oleander Dr. Medium Downtown Wilmington vicinity. ' Vicinity of: Market St., Kerr Av. & Blvd., east Eastwood Rd. ' Shipyard Blvd. Monkey Junction vicinity: Piner Rd., Sanders Rd., Carolina Beach Rd. ' Castle Hayne vicinity. Low Downtown Wilmington vicinity. • South Kerr Blvd. N. College Rd. Market St. between N. College and Gordon Rd. Office High East Gordon Rd. Military Cutoff Rd. Monkey Junction at Piner Rd. and Carolina Beach Rd. Medium Vicinity of Market St. and N. Kerr Av. Vicinity of Shipyard Blvd., Carolina Bch. Rd., 17th. St., Independence Rd. Vicinity of east Eastwood Rd. and S. College Rd. Low Vicinity of: south of Eastwood Rd. and east of S. College Rd. • VI-9 Industrial High East -west branch of N. Kerr Av. Along the Cape Fear River west of Castle Hayne Rd. Northwest of Market St. between N. College Rd. and Gordon Rd. Medium In north County area in Holly Shelter Rd. vicinity. North of N. Kerr Ave. Between Castle Hayne Rd. and 1-40. Along the Cape Fear River west of Castle Hayne Rd. Along the Smith Creek west of N. Kerr Ave. River Rd. and Titanium Rd. Low Along Route 421. Blue Clay Rd. Along the Smith Creek west of N. Kerr Ave. Vicinity of N. College Rd. and Market St. Vicinity of S. Kerr Blvd. And Market St. Downtown Wilmington scattered sites. ' Vicinity of River Rd. and Titanium Rd. (Independence Blvd. extension) ib VII. Projections for Future Land Use • Land Use Categories for Future Land Use Analysis The land use categories for analysis of developed and vacant land from 1997 to 2010 in the County and City are shown in the table below. The main land use categories for 1997 are: residential; business; recreation; agriculture; water; and the 'other" category which includes roads. Projected changes to 2010 in land use consisting of residential, business, and roads categories are analyzed in this report. The projected 1997-2010 recreation needs of the City and unincorporated County are documented in the Fiscal Analysis community infrastructure report. In the last 15 years there has been little rezoning of agriculture land for development in the unincorporated County. Thus, agriculture has no projected land use change in the next 12 years! Developed and Vacant Residential & Business Land 1997-2010 The following tables VII-1 and VII-2 show a the Land Use Summary for 1997 and 2010. The amount of land in 1997 and a projection for 2010 are shown for developed, vacant, residential and business.2 The County Service Area is composed of the Urban Service Area and the Non -Urban Service Area as shown on the map on page III-3. The Urban Service Area is composed of Wilmington and the Urban County. The residential category is composed of single family, duplex and townhome, apartment, and mobile home. The business category is composed of retail, office, and industry made up of job types shown in the lower table on page VI-1. Table VII-I. Land Use Summary 1997 (Acres and Percent) Urban Service Area Wilmington Urban County Category Developed % Vacant % Total Developed % Vacant % Total Residential 5,528 73% 2,064 27% 7,592 12,099 54% 10,393 46% 22,492 Business 2,988 64% 1,658 36% 4,646 3,339 71% 1,359 29% 4,698 Non -Urban County Service Area County Service Area Total Category Developed % Vacant % Total Developed % Vacant % Total Residential 6,626 23% 21,959 77% 28,585 24,253 41% 34,416 59% 58,669 Business 7,078 40% 10,618 60% 17,696 13,405 50% 13,635 50% 27,040 1 Table VI-1 shows that there has been a loss of 33 agriculture jobs from 1990 to 1996. It is not known if this trend will continue into the future. 2 See appendix Tables A-1 and A-9 for details. • VII-I Table VII-2. Land Use Projection 2010 <_ (Acres and Percent) " Urban Service Area • Wilmington Urban County Category Developed % Vacant % Total Developed % Vacant % Total Residential 6,309 83% 1,283 17% 7,592 15,152 67% 7,340 33% 22,492 Business 3,575 77% 1,071 23% 4,646 4,430 94% 278 6% 4,70B Non -Urban County Service Area Planning Service Area Total Category Developed % Vacant % Total Developed % Vacant % Total Residential 7,431 26% 21,154 74% 28,585 28,892 49% 29,777 51 % 58,669 Business 7,295 41% 10,401 59% 17,696 15,300 57% 11,750 43% 27,050 The following table VII-3 is an extract from the previous two tables and it shows the projected increase in development and loss of vacant land from 1997 to 2010. Wilmington and the urban County are projected to see an increase of 10% and 13% developed residential land, and 10% and 23% in developed business land. The non -urban County is projected to show less land development than the City or urban County with 3% growth in residential and 1% in business. The Planning Service Area shows land development at 8% and 7% for residential and business respectively. Table VII-3. Increase in Development, Loss of Vacant Land 1997-2010 Wilmington Developed Vacant Category 1997 2010 Change'97-10 1997 2010 Change'97-'10 Residential 73% 83% 10% 27% 17% -10% Business 64% 77% 13% 36% 23% -13% Urban County Developed Category 1997 2010 Change '97-'10 Residential 54% 67% 13% Business 71 % 94% 23% Non -Urban County Developed Category 1997 2010 Change'97210 Residential 23% 26% 3% Business 40% 41 % 1 % Planning Service Area Developed Category 1997 2010 Change'97210 Residential 41 % 49% 8% Business 50% 57% 7% Vacant 1997 2010 Change'97210 46% 33% -13% 29% 6% -23% Vacant 1997 2010 Change'97-'10 77% 74% -3% 60% 59% -1 % Vacant 1997 2010 Change'97-'10 59% 51 % -8% 50% 43% -7% VII-2 • i Projected Consumption of Vacant Land by Roads 1997-2010 The following table VII-4 shows the projected increase in the amount roads (in acres) for each area of the Planning Service Area. The City is the most urbanized area and in 1997 15% of its land use was roads. In 1997 10% of the urban County was composed of roads, and 3% of the more rural non -urban County was composed of roads. From 1997 to 2010 the projection is that the Planning Service Area will add approximately, 1,300 acres of new roads at the expense of vacant land. The projected 2010 land use is: 17% of the City; 12% of the urban County; 3% of the non -urban County, and 8% of the Planning Service Area. Table. VII-4. Projected Consumption of Vacant Land by Roads 1997-2010 (acres & %) 1997 1997-2010 2010 Location Roads Developed & % Roads Estimate of vacant land Roads % Roads vacant land conversion to roads Wilmington 2,784 18,486 15% 273 3,057 17% Urban County 3,354 33,983 10% 829 4,183 12% Non -Urban County 1,763 60,393 3% 204 1,967 3% Planning Service Area 7,901 112,862 7% 1,306 9,207 8% (total of above) • The following two tables VII-5 and VII-6 show the amount of vacant land in percent in the 100 year flood plain.3 A map on page IV-5 shows the location of the flood plain. Some of this land will likely be developed in the next 12 years. Many portions of the County and City have flooding problems and stormwater management concerns. There should be concern about how land that is in the flood plain is developed, and policy and implementation actions should address this issue. • 3 See appendix tables A4 and A5 for details. VII-3 r Table VII-5. Vacant Land in the y 100 Year Flood Plain (1997) Residential Business Location % acres % acres Wilmington 7% 178 12% 252 Urban County 26% 3028 20% 288 Non -Urban County 19% 4329 34% 4117 Planning Service Area 21 % 7535 30% 4656 Table VII-6. Vacant Business Land in the 100 Year Flood Plain (1997) Location Retail Office Industry Wilmington 3% 2% 18% Urban County 5% 5% 32% Non -Urban County 19% 0% 34% Planning Service Area 8% 3% 32% VII-4 • • • VIII. Alternative Future Land Use Scenario Background Through the Comprehensive Planning process it was discovered that many citizens want to see current development patterns change in New Hanover County and Wilmington. For years Wilmington and the County have been undergoing a development concept called urban sprawl. Sprawl is the land use pattern that has arisen due to strict adherence to single use zoning districts and the construction of infrastructure to support the use of the single occupant automobile. Zoning since the late 1920's functioned to separate residential uses from industrial and commercial uses. This separation also encouraged residential subdivisions to move further away from city centers. While many people enjoy owning a home on a relatively large lot, away from the central city, others want the convenience and sense of community that urban living brings. Additionally, concerns which range from increased traffic on the roads, to pollution in the estuarine creeks and in our groundwater, can be addressed through changes in the way our land is developed. The{ development trend which the following land use scenario promotes mingles different but compatible land uses within the same neighborhood. The scenario strives to maintain the character of existing neighborhoods while encouraging new neighborhoods to increase density where service can be provided most efficiently and commercial, office and Institutional, and light industrial land uses can be located in harmony. This Traditional Neighborhood Development type would link pedestrian friendly business, and residential development while striving to retain open space. Future Land Use Scenario Categories The following table VIII-1 lists the future land use scenario categories. These categories are applied to a future land use map on the next page VIII-2. The categories are intended to promote the development of detailed performance criteria for consideration in the Unified Development Ordinance (UDO). The future land use scenario map presents flexible development, efficient use of urban services, and increased density where appropriate. The presented future land use scenario should be achievable under the classifications set forth in the CAMA Land Classification map. In many areas the classifications coincide geographically, and the future land use scenario provides a flexible framework for future ordinance development. Table Vill-1. Future Land Use Scenario Categories Mixed Use Urban Neighborhood Flood Plain Regional Center Mbced Use Rural Neighborhood Unique Feature Overlay Community Center Residential Neighborhood Industrial VIII-I • • 0 New Hanover County Future Land Use Scenario N Legend ' I ❑ Mixed Use Urban Regional Center ❑ Nelghborhood Residendal ❑ Industrial `` Mixed Use Non -Urban ❑ Community Center ❑ f00 Year Flood Plaln ❑ UnIque Feature Oveday -. _e Nast Mop on.ndm tatane ❑ Urbanized Bounddes lV Main Roads ❑ Hydrography ❑ Munlclpa/ Bounddes a.orlohb kf—.Vm 8YOW. Wwna an T40II0lWlop M.pLrotl'ah: /nhaH.trbnv • • The future land use scenario presents flexible development, efficient use of urban services, increased density where appropriate, while striving to retain open space. The following are descriptions of the future land use scenario categories listed in table VIII-1 and presented in the map on page VIII-2. Mixed Use Urban Neighborhood Undeveloped and redevelopment areas with mixture of uses permitted in accordance with clear guidelines for performance controls and site design. Increased residential density and the clustering of land uses are encouraged. Urban services are either existing or planned in these areas. Mixed Use Rural Neighborhood Urban services are not planned or currently available in these areas. Mixed land use types are encouraged but density should not exceed density limits set forth in the land use plan. Cluster and mixed use development should be encouraged to maximize the utility of available services. Residential Neighborhood Established residential neighborhoods with guidelines that reflect the existing patterns of development. Non-residential uses limited to neighborhood level activities with strict performance standards and public review. Flood Plain Land within the Flood Plain which is Environmentally sensitive land or potential open space and recreation areas. Residential and mixed use development are permitted with specific design criteria and are subject to CAMA Land Classification density and impervious surface standards. Unique Feature Overlay Key roadways and unique natural or historically significant areas where safeguards to preserve the integrity of the area are warranted. Mixture of uses permitted with strict design guidelines for appearance, density, access, and resource protection. Industrial Areas with suitable land area and existing or planned infrastructure to accommodate expansive sites for heavy manufacturing and similar uses. Regional Center Nodes at major intersections designed to accommodate regional level service and trade needs with other less intense uses. High density residential shall also be encouraged in Regional Centers but they shall only occupy a portion of the total center area. Community Center Areas designed for the service and trade needs at the community level located at key intersections. A mixture of other less intense uses, including residential, may be included in the VIII-3 �. center area. Future Land Use Comparison; Projected and Scenario The following table VIII-2 is a future land use comparison of the projected developed land shown in section VH of the tent, and of the scenario presented in this section (VIII). Shown is the amount of developed acres of land by 2010. The Planning Service Area is composed of unincorporated New Hanover County north of Snows Cut and Wilmington combined as shown on the page III-3 map. Table VIII-2. Future Land Use Comparison; Projected and Scenario Total Developed Land by 2010 in Planning Service Area` (acres) Projected Total Scenario Single Family Multi -Family Retail Office Industry Developed Industrial 37 0 20 50 5,800 5,907 Mixed Use Urban 4,700 790 950 539 920 7,899 Mixed Use Non -Urban 3,445 477 900 100 959 5,881 Regional Center 50 205 1,150 300 155 1,860 Community Center 250 65 220 50 0 585 Residential Neighborhood 16,500 290 100 9 0 16,899 Flood Plain 3,655 166 187 61 3,467 7,536 Unique Feature 133 30 11 0 0 174 • Total Developed 28,770 2,023 3,538 1,109 11,301 46,741 The following table VIII-3 is a comparison by 2010 with the amount of developed land from table VH-2 and vacant land in acres for each of the scenario future land use categories. By 2010 the estimate is that approximately 46,700 acres will be developed and 65,500 will be vacant. Table VIII-3. Comparison of Developed and Vacant Land by 2010 (acres) Scenario Future Land Total Amount of Scenario Total Developed Scenario Vacant Use Categories Vacant and Developed Land Land by 2010 Land by 2010 Industrial 9,107 5,907 3,200 Mixed Use Urban 19,333 7,899 11,434 Mixed Use Non -Urban 25,559 5,881 19,678 Regional Center 3,686 1,860 1,826 Community Center 1,550 585 965 Residential Neighborhood 25,879 16,899 8,980 Flood Plain 26,753 7,536 19,217 Unique Feature 352 174 178 Total 112,220 46,741 65,479 • VIII-4 �J • References Unless otherwise indicated all data is from the Wilmington Planning Division and the New Hanover County Planning Department. Data was accessed by the Information Technology offices in the County and City through the Geographical Information System. FIN Appendix • North Carolina Coastal Area Management Act; Mandated Planning Requirements This future land use report is one of the technical reports for the Wilmington -New Hanover Comprehensive Plan 1997-2010, and the Coastal Area Management Act (CAMA) Land Use Plan. In 1974 the North Carolina General Assembly required that 20 coastal counties of the state prepare land use plans. This plan provides a framework to guide local leaders with protection, preservation, orderly development and management of the North Carolina coastal area. Updates to the plan are required in five year intervals. In accordance with CAMA requirements, the land use plan consists of the following elements: summary of data collection and analysis; existing land use map; policy discussion; and a land classification map. This information serves an important role with local development regulations, such as zoning ordinances, and it provides input for growth policy decisions. • • A-1 The following Land Use Computer Codes were used to calculate vacant and developed land and other categories in this report. The land use data was collected in 1997 and is accessed by the City -County GIS program. Table A-1. Land Use Computer Codes Residential Trade (continued) 10 1 Family Residential 542 Fish 6 Seafoods -Retail 11 2 Family Residential 549 Other Retail Trade -Food 12 3 or More Family Residential 551 Retail Auto 13 Mobile Home 553 Tires Batteries t Accessories -Retail 14 Mobile Home Park j, 554 Gasoline Service Stations 15 Single Family Attached (Condos) 555 Marine Craft 4 Accessories -Retail 16 Vacant/Dilapidated 561 Retail Apparel 6 Accessories 21 Seasonal Res 1 Family 571 Retail Home Furnishings 22 Seasonal Res 2+ Family 581 Eating Place -Consumption on Premises 99 Other Residential 582 Drinking Place(Alcoholic Beverages) 583 Fast Food Drive -in -Retail Consumption Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Mining 599 Other Retail 101 Agriculture Services 107 Agriculture Related 108 Forestry c Related 601 Financial G Banks 109 Fishery 651 Real state 110 Sport Fishing 655 Construction Contracting 111 Commercial Fishing 701 Residential Hotel 112 Other Fishing and Related 702 Transient Lodging 121 Mining and Related 703 Trav Trlr Park 149 Other Resources 703 Resort and Camps 704 Bed and Breakfast Manufacturing 721 72 Personal Business • 201 Food and Kindred 752 Auto Parking 221 Textile Mill 7661 Repair non -auto 231 Apparel and Similar 762 Auto Repair/Service 241 Lumber and Wood 781 Motion Picture Production 251 Furniture and Fixtures 783 Movie Theatre 261 Paper and Allied 784 Video Rental 271 Printing and Publishing 792 Public Assembly 281 Chemical and Allied 796 Parks 291 Petroleum, Refining and Related 797 Recreation(public/non-park) 301 Rubber and Plastic 798 Recreation(private) 321 Stone, Clay and Glass 799 Other C. E 6 R 331 Primary Metal 801 Physician 341 Fabricated Metal 802 Dental Service 373 Boat and Ship Construction 804 Other Medical 6 Health Services 381 Professional and Scientific Instrument 805 Nursing, Convalescent 6 Rest Home Services 399 Miscellaneous Manufacturing 806 Hospital Services 807 Medical c Dental Laboratory Services Transportation, communication and Utilities 811 Legal Services 821 Educational 401 Rail Transit 822 Day Care Facilities (not in new list) 411 Motor Vehicles - Transit 836 Group Quarters(residential care) 412 Street R.O.W. 841 Cultural or Nature Exhibition 422 Warehousing/Self-Storage 866 Religious Activities(Churches) 441 Water Transport - Freight 867 Religious Activities(Schools) 448 Water Transport - Passenger 899 Other Services 449 Marina -Marine Craft Docking 911 Governmental 458 Aircraft 481 Radio, Phone, TV Communications Land and Water Areas 491 Utilities 499 Other T, C and U 951 Marshes 952 Water Areas Trade 953 Non-commercial Forest 953 Landfill 501 Wholesale 956 Under Construction 508 Aircraft s Accessories, Other 957 Vacant Floors 521 Retail -Bldg Materials, Hardware Farm 95B Unused Land 531 Recai'_-General Merchandise 959 Other Undeveloped Land 541 Groceries -Recall Convenience Food • A-2 Tables A-2 to A-9 refer to areas shown on the map on page III-3: the Urban Service Area �- is composed of Wilmington and Urban County land adjacent to the Wilmington; Non -Urban • County; and the Planning Service Area which is composed of the Urban Service Area and the Non -Urban County. Table A-2. Developed Residential Land 1997 Planning Service Area (Acres & %) Above Computer flood Flood Area Type Code plain plain % Total % Urban Service Area Wilmington Single Family 10,21 4409 237 4% 4646 84% Duplex & Townhome 11,15 245 5 0.1 % 250 5% Apartment 12 555 25 0.5% 580 10% Mobile Home 13,14 52 0 0% 52 1% Subtotal 5261 267 5% 5528 100% Urban County Single Family 10.21 9700 1171 10% 10871 90% Duplex & Townhome 11,15 241 17 0.1 % 258 2% Apartment 12 62 3 0.0% 65 1 % Mobile Home 13,14 831 74 0.6% 905 7% Subtotal 10834 1265 10% 12099 100% Total 16095 1532 13% 17627 Non -Urban Co. Single Family 10,21 4345 1084 16% 5429 82% Service Area Duplex & Townhome 11,15 242 16 0.2% 258 4% • Apartment 12 12 0 0% 12 0.2% Mobile Home 13,14 838 89 1% 927 14% Total 5437 1189 18% 6626 100% Planning Service Area Single Family 10,21 18454 2492 10% 20946 86% (Total: USA & N-USA) Duplex & Townhome 11,15 728 38 0.2% 766 3% Apartment 12 629 28 0.1 % 657 3% Mobile Home 13,14 1721 163 1 % 1884 8% Total 21532 2721 11 % 24253 100% • A-3 • Table A-3. Developed Business Land 1997 Planning Service Area (Acres & %) Wilmington Job Type Above flood plain Flood plain % Total Retail 1359 68 5% 1427 Office 433 11 2% 444 Industry 565 552 49% 1117 2357 631 21% 2988 Urban County Job Type Above flood Flood plain % Total plain Retail 1003 66 6% 1069 Office 340 20 6% 360 Industry 1657 253 13% 1910 3000 339 10% 3339 Non -Urban County Job Type Above flood Flood plain % Total plain Retail 428 53 11 % 481 Office 101 30 23% 131 Industry 3950 2516 39% 6466 • 4479 2599 37% 7078 Planning Service Area Total Job Type Above flood Flood plain % Total plain Retail 2790 187 6% 2977 Office 874 61 7% 935 Industry 6172 3321 35% 9493 9836 3569 27% 13405 A-4 Tables A-4 and A-5 show a category "marginal land". From a development point of view • it is unlikely that this land would be developed in the near future as it is composed of common area between buildings (e.g. in an condomium complex), marsh, landfill, and water. Table A-4. Vacant Residential Land 1997 Planning Service Area (acres & %) Area Type Zoning Above Flood % in Total Under con- % Mar- % Net Total flood plain flood struction ginal plain plain land Urban Service Area Wilmington Single family: R15, R10, R7, 1,462 107 7% 1,569 12 29 1,529 R5, R3, HDR Mufti -family: MFL, MFM, MFH 741 71 9% 812 143 133 536 Mobile home: MHD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 sub total 2,204 178 7% 2,381 155 7% 162 7% 2,064 Urban County Single family: R20S, R20, 7,415 1,941 21 % 9,356 475 290 8,591 R15, R10 Planned develop. Airport 1,004 1,087 52% 2,091 31 258 1,802 residen.: PD, AR sub total 8,419 3,028 26% 11,447 506 4% 548 5% 10,393 USA Total 10,623 3,205 23% 13,828 661 5% 710 5% 12,457 Non -Urban County • Service Area Single family: R20S, R20, 13,032 3,320 20% 16,352 175 348 15,829 R15, R10 Planned develop.: PD 5,121 1,010 16% 6,130 0 0 6,130 Non -USA Total 18,153 4,329 19% 22,482 175 1% 348 2% 21,959 Planning Service Area (Total: USA 8 N-USA) 28,776 7,535 21 % 36,310 836 2% 1,058 3% 34,416 • A-5 • Table A-5. Vacant Business Land 1997 Planning Service Area (acres & %) Wilmington Job Type Zoning Above Flood % in Total Under % Marginal % Net Total flood plain flood construe- land plain plain tion Retail City: CB, RB, CBD, CS 478 14 3% 492 28 6% 18 4% 446 Office City: 0&1 276 5 2% 281 7 3% 31 11 % 243 Industry City: Al, LM, HM 1,044 233 18% 1,277 122 10% 187 15% 969 1,798 252 12% 2,050 157 8% 236 12% 1,657 Urban County Job Type Zoning Above Flood % in Total Under % Marginal % Net Total flood plain flood construc- land plain plain tion Retail County: 131, B2, SC 471 26 5% 497 41 8% 6 1% 450 Office County:O&1 145 8 5% 153 2 1% - 0% 152 Industry County:11, 12, Al 534 253 32% 787 18 2% 12 2% 757 1,150 '_>R8 20% 1,437 60 4% 18 1 % 1,359 Non -Urban County Job Type Zoning Above Flood % in Total Under % Marginal % Net Total flood plain flood construc- land plain plain bon Retail County: 61, B2, SC 255 59 19% 314 0 0% 44 14% 270 Office County:O&1 18 0% 18 0% 0% 18 Industry County:11, 12, Al 7,764 3,999 34% 11,764 62 1% 1,388 12% 10,314 8,037 4,058 34% 12,095 62 1% 1,431 12% 10,602 Planning Service Area Job Type Retail 1,204 99 8% 1,303 69 5% 68 5% 1,166 Office 439 13 3% 452 9 2% 31 7% 412 Industry 9,342 4,486 32% 13,828 202 1 % 1,586 11 % 12,040 10,985 4,598 30% 15,583 279 2% 1,685 11 % 13,618 • A-6 Table A-6. • Projected Housing and Residential Development 1997-2010 (units and acres) Projected Projected acres of new Units Developed Units / Ac. new units development Area Type Nov. 1997 Acres W 1997 V7210 VVI0 Urban Service Area Wilmington Single Family 14,654 4,646 3.2 2,074 658 Duplex & Townhome 3,245 250 13.0 453 35 Apartment 9,874 580 17.0 1,377 81 Mobile Home 500 52 9.8 71 7 Subtotal 28,273 5,528 5.1 3,975 781 Urban County Single Family 20,548 10,871 1.9 4,663 2,467 Duplex & Townhome 1,938 258 7.5 2,379 317 Apartment 447 65 6.9 415 60 Mobile Home 2,129 905 2.4 492 209 Subtotal 25,062 12,099 2.1 7,949 3,053 Total 53,335 17,627 3.0 11,924 3,834 Non -Urban County Single Family 6,090 5,429 1.1 669 596 Service Area Duplex & Townhome 313 258 1.2 130 107 Apartment 0 12 - 0 . - - Mobile Home 1,156 927 1.2 127 102 Total 7,559 6,626 1.1 926 805 Planning Service Area Single Family 41,292 20,946 2.0 7,406 3,721 is (Total: USA & N-USA) Duplex & Townhome 5,496 766 7.2 2,962 459 Apartment 10,321 657 15.7 1,792 141 Mobile Home 3,785 1,884 2.0 690 318 Total 60,894 24,253 2.5 12,850 4,639 Is A-7 • Table A-7. Employment Projections 1997-2010 Planning Service Area (employees & acres) Retail 1997 1997 1997 Increase Projected develop. Area Employees Land (ac.) Empl. /Ac. '97--10 employ. land'97-'10 (ac.) Urban Service Area Wilmington 18,521 1,427 13.0 2,602 200 Urban County 7,974 1,069 7.5 2,535 340 Total 26,495 2,496 10.6 5.137 540 Non -Urban Service Area 2,174 481 4.5 266 59 Planning Service Area 28,669 2,977 9.6 5,403 599 Office 1997 1997 1997 Increase Projected develop. Area Employees Land (ac.) Empl. /Ac. '97-'10 employ. land'97-'10 (ac.) Urban Service Area Wilmington 10,050 444 22.6 1,412 62 Urban County 3,954 360 11.0 1,268 115 Total 14,004 804 17.4 2,680 178 Non -Urban Service Area 1,096 131 8.4 134 16 Planning Service Area 15,100 935 16.1 2,814 194 Industry 1997 1997 1997 Increase Projected develop. Area Employees Land (ac.) Empl. / Ac. '97--10 employ. land '97--10 (ac.) Urban Service Area Wilmington 4,857 1,117 4.3 1,412 325 Urban County 3,810 1,910 2.0 1,268 636 Total 8,667 3,027 2.9 2,680 960 Non -Urban Service Area 6,104 6,466 0.9 134 142 Planning Service Area 14,771 9,493 1.6 2,814 1,102 • Total: Retail, Office, Industry Planning Service Area (USA &N-USA) 58,540 13,405 4.4 11,031 1,895 Employment values from Wilimington Planning Div. July 1997 Transportation Plan data col ection. Projections based on keeping ratios with NO Office State Plan. population growth modified by Wilmington Planning Div. & NHC Plan. Dept Acres from GIS land data. A-8 Table A-8. • Residential Land Development 1997-2010 (acres) Planning Service Area Urban Service Area Wilmington 2010 1997 '97210 Road 1997 1997 Road Acres V7210 2010 2010 Road Acres Acres Develope Vacant Estimate Developed Developed Vacant Estimate Estimate d Single family 4698 1529 1104 665 5363 864 133 1237 Mufti -family 830 536 242 116 946 420 23 265 total 5528 2065 1346 781 6309 1284 156 1502 Urban 2010 County 1997 V7210 Road 1997 1997 Road Acres '97-10 2010 2010 Road Acres Acres Develope Vacant Estimate Developed Developed Vacant Estimate Estimate d Single family ' 11776 10393 2428 2676 14452 7340 535 2963 Mufti -family 323 - - 377 700 - 75 75 total 12099 10393 2428 3053 15152 7340 611 3038 Non -Urban County 2010 Service Area 1997 V7210 Road 1997 1997 Road Acres V7210 2010 2010 Road Acres Acres Develope Vacant Estimate Developed Developed Vacant Estimate Estimate d • Single family 6356 21959 851 698 7054 21154 140 991 Mufti -family 270 - - 107 377 - 21 21 total 6626 21959 851 805 7431 21154 161 1012 Planning Service Area 2010 (Total: USA & N-USA) 1997 V7-10 Road 1997 1997 Road Acres 57210 2010 2010 Road Acres Acres Develope Vacant Estimate Developed Developed Vacant Estimate Estimate d Single family 22830 33881 4383 4039 26869 29358 808 5191 Mufti -family 1423 - 242 600 2023 420 120 362 total 24253 34417 4625 4639 28892 29778 928 5553 • A-9 aTable A-9. Business Land Development Projections 1997-2010 (acres) Planning Service Area Retail Increase in 2010 1997 Road Acres Road 1997 1997 Road Acres W--10 2010 2010 V7210 Acres Area Developed Vacant Estimate Developed Developed Vacant Estimate Estimate Urban Service Area Wilmington 1427 446 332 200 1627 246 40 372 Urban County 1069 450 166 340 1409 110 68 234 Total 2496 896 498 540 3036 356 108 606 Non -Urban Service Area 481 270 23 59 540 211 12 34 Planning Service Area 2977 1166 521 599 3576 567 120 641 Office Increase in 2010 1997 Road Acres Road 1997 1997 Road Acres V7210 2010 2010 V7210 Acres Area Developed Vacant Estimate Developed Developed Vacant Estimate Estimate Urban Service Area Wilmington 444 243 122 62 506 181 12 134 Urban County 360 152 56 115 475 37 M 79 Total 804 395 178 177 981 218 35 213 Non -Urban Service Area 131 34 5 16 147 18 3 8 • Planning Service Area 935 429 183 193 1128 236 39 221 Industry Increase in 2010 1997 Road Acres Road 1997 1997 Road Acres V7210 2010 2010 V7210 Acres Area Developed Vacant Estimate Developed Developed Vacant Estimate Estimate Urban Service Area Wilmington 1117 969 370 325 1442 644 65 435 Urban County 1910 757 292 636 2946 121 127 419 Total 3027 1726 662 961 3988 765 192 854 Non -Urban Service Area 6466 10314 505 142 6608 10172 28 533 Planning Service Area 9493 12040 1165 1103 10596 10937 221 1387 Total: Retail, Office, Industry Planning Service Area (USA & N-USA) 13405 13635 1870 1895 15300 11740 379 2249 A-10 Hurricane Mitigation & Reconstruction Technical Reports Wilmington New Hanover County Comprehensive Plan 0 Hurricane Mitigation & Reconstruction of New Hanover County and Wilmington, North Carolina A Technical Report for the City and County Comprehensive Plan 1997-2010 • October 1997 Prepared by the New Hanover County, Planning Department 414 Chestnut Street, Suite 304, Wilmington, NC 28401 (910) 341-7165 City of Wilmington, Planning Division 202 N. 3rd Street, 0 Floor, Wilmington, NC 28401 (910) 341-3258 • • TABLE OF CONTENTS • ®r Page I. Purpose and Scope of Study I II. Tropical Storm Characteristics 2 M. Coastal Storm Activity 4 IV. Coastal Storm Mitigation Policies 5 V. Evacuation Policies 9 VI. Conclusions and Policy Recommendations 14 VII. References 16 H STORM HAZARD MITIGATION, POST- DISASTER RECOVERY, AND S EVACUATION PLANS I. Purpose and Scope of Study This document focuses on existing and future procedures and policies New Hanover County can develop and utilize to mitigate the potential for the loss of life and property associated with intense tropical storms known as Hurricanes and the orderly reconstruction of public and private infrastructure after the storm event. To lend support of the following proposed policies and procedures, a brief background on tropical storm characteristics and recent tropical storm activity in the Cape Fear area will be discussed. This plan is presented under the format required by the North Carolina Coastal Management (CAMA) regulations and includes the following elements: A. Coastal Storm Hazard Mitigation Policies that include: 1. Mitigating the effects of high winds, storm surge, flooding, wave action and erosion. 0 2. Discouraging high density and large structure development in hazardous areas. 3. Public Acquistion of land in hazardous areas. B. Evacuation Policies that would include: 1. Decreasing density in order to decrease the number of evacuees. 2. Requiring major residential development to provide emergency shelter 3. Design of new public buildings for emergency shelter use. 4. Participate in a regional evacuation plan. C. Post Disaster and Reconstruction objectives including: 1. County Emergency Plan 2. Long term reconstruction policies 3. Establishment of a recovery task force 4. Schedule for staging building permits and the imposition of a moratoria. 5. Repair and replacement of public infrastructure. 0 2 II. Tropical Storm Characteristics The development of a tropical storm resembles a cluster of organized and unstable weather typically in the form of thunderstorms that persist over the tropics for a period several of days. This area of unstable weather may originate off the west coast of Africa, in Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico or Atlantic Ocean. The tropics supply the key ingredients needed for tropical storms to develop including but not limited to warm ocean water (80 degrees or higher) and light surface and upper level winds. As a tropical storm continues to develop, a circular, counter- clockwise rotating column of air evolves near the center of the storm. It is this circular column of air around the center of the storm that produces the most violent winds and very heavy rainfall associated with a hurricane. Tropical storms develop and mature by passing through several stages based -on sustained* wind speed characteristics ( below) and can last for several days or even weeks based on upper level wind dynamics or the storm slamming into a coastal area such as the Gulf or Southeast Coast. Sustained winds within hurricanes may exceed over 150 miles per hour near and to the right of the center or eye with wind gusts close to 200 miles per hour. Storms of this magnitude are rare. • Tropical Depression: sustained winds of 38 miles per hour or less Tropical Storm: sustained winds between 39 & 73 miles per hour Hurricane: sustained winds greater than 73 miles per hour Typically, the hurricane season begins on the first day of June and extends through the last day in November. The most active and intense period of hurricane activity along the North Carolina coast based on historical records has occurred in August, September and October. Hurricanes typically move in a westerly direction approximately 12 to 15 miles per hour 10 degrees of north latitude. The forward speed and direction of the storm can vary greatly once entering the Atlantic basin* due to the number of different atmospheric variables the system may encounter (McElyea et al, 1982). Hurricanes are special and very unique. Names for these powerful storms are appropriate because we come to know them before they strike. The uniqueness of these awesome storms is the limited ability and difficulty of weather forecasters to predict the exact path and travel time that a storm will take. In the past decade though, this difficulty has been greatly reduced through the use of satelllite imagery, computer software, high altitude aircraft such as the "Gulfstream" Losses from Hurricanes in the Continental United States, by Decades (through 1993) Source: Nona, National Hurricane Center. • Estimated Losses from Hurricanes in the United States, by Decades (through r993; damages in 1992 dollars) Source: Roan, National Hurricane Center. • 3. and the hurricane watch/warning system. These tools combined with an sophisticated. communication network between weather related agencies and local emergency officials and the general public has improved the ability to forecast the path of a storm and reduce a degree of uncertainty as to where the storm will make landfall. It is these technological tools that have greatly diminished the potential loss of life (graphic Barnes Book). While the potential loss of life has been reduced over the past 25 years, the monetary loss of public and private property continues to escalate with the amount of development along the coastline (graphic Barnes ). This issue will be more discussed later in this report. An additional tool used by the National Hurricane Center to determine storm intensity is the Saffir/Simpson scale. The scale, developed by Herbert Saffir and Robert Simpson in the early 1970's classifies and/or describes the amount of property damage based on sustained wjiid speed and barometric pressure levels. Prior to the creation of the Saffir/Simpson scale, the Hurricane Center had a complicated time explaining to disaster agencies how much damage to expect from an approaching storm. Based on the Saffir-Simpson classification, a category 3 hurricane or stronger is considered "major" (Weather Book) storm. Category 1- Minimal Damage: Sustained winds between 74-95 m.p.h. Storm surge four to five to five feet. Flooded low- lying coastal roads, minor pier damage, vegetation and branches torn from trees. Category 2- Moderate Damage: Sustained winds between 96-110 m.p.h. Storm surge six to eight feet. Coastal and low-lying roads leading inland flooded two to four hours before the hurricane eye approaches. Piers damaged, marinas flooded, and trees downed. Category 3- Extensive Damage: Sustained winds between I I 1-130 m.p.h. Storm surge 9 to 12 feet. Small structures destroyed by winds and coastal flooding. Larger structures along ocean front destroyed by battering waves and floating debris. Low-lying roads leading inland flooded three to five hours before hurricane eye approaches. Category 4- Extreme Damage: Sustained winds between 131-155 m.p.h. Storm surge 13 to 18 feet. Flooding of flat terrain up to 10 feet above sea -level as far as 6 miles inland. Major flooding and wave battering damage to lower floors of structures near shore. Low-lying roads leading inland flooded three to five hours before the hurricane eye approaches. Major beach erosion. Category 5- Catastropic Damage: Sustained winds above 155 m.p.h. Storm surge greater than 18 feet. Complete roof failure on most homes and businesses. Massive evacuation dull tr -`Elio Ora -UN7.7— rVa%s, Mh i sfFVl-0 Nj;g ams kill WAV 74Y. 12- 1 i .�KA P f I >�n. ....... . . . . . IS of residential areas on low ground within 5 to10 miles of shoreline -may be required III. Coastal Storm Activity The Cape Fear area of southeast North Carolina has a storied hurricane history. In October, 1954, Hurricane Hazel made landfall near Southport with 140 m.p.h. winds, very heavy rainfall and a storm surge over 18 feet. Based on the amount of damage and sustained wind speed levels, Hazel would have been ranked as a category 4 hurricane. Extreme damage occurred along the south facing beaches of Brunswick County and the beaches of New Hanover County(Barnes picture) due to the heavy winds and tremendous storm surge which occurred at high tide. Records indicate that only five buildings were left standing along the shoreline at Long Beach (Barnes, p. 90). Thirty years later, Hurricane Diana visited the Cape Fear region (Barnes- picture). Prior to landfall near Fort Fisher, Diana was classified as a minimal category 4 storm -With 135 m.p.h. winds. Due to her fickle nature, Diana made landfall as a category 2 storm producing a 4 foot storm surge and minor damage to property at Carolina and Wrightsville Beaches. After Diana's visit to the Cape Fear area, hurricane activity along the southeast coast had been been relatively quite. The tropical storm picture changed dramatically during the 1996 season when not one, but three tropical systems visited and impacted the area. In July, Hurricane Bertha wobbled along the coast between Carolina and Topsail Beaches as a strong category 1 storm. At the time of landfall, Bertha's sustained winds were clocked at 92 m.p.h. at the local weather service office in Wilmington. The storm surge was approximately 6 feet. In New Hanover County, damage was assessed at 27 million dollars. The total economic impact on tourism and businesses was over 66 million dollars (Bertha Stats from Emer. Man.). Before clean-up from Bertha was completed, Hurricane Fran visited the Cape Fear area in September. With sustained winds close to 120 m.p.h. prior to landfall and a storm surge of over 12 feet, Fran ranked as the most costly storm ever in the State of North Carolina and eclisped many property damage records previously held by Hazel. In New Hanover County alone, damage totalled over 365 million dollars. Statewide, damage figures were close to 6 billion dollars. Adding to the property damage price tag were the number of trees that toppled over onto homes due to rain satuarated soils prior to Fran. It is estimated that approximately 19 inches of rain fell during a five day period in the greater Wilmington area (Nat'l Weather Ser). Flooding in New Hanover County was extensive as many creeks, streams and low-lying areas were inundated. Fortunately, despite all the property damage, one life was lost in New Hanover County- that • being due to an electrocution after the storm event. • Hurricane Diana, the first hurricane to cause significant damage on the North Carolina coast since Donna in tg6o, finally made landfall near Bald Head Island in September 1984. This house at Holden Beach was destroyed during the storm. (Photo courtesy of the National Weather Service) .� • This late afternoon satellite image of Diana clearly shows the storm's eye poised just off the coast of Cape Fear. The hurricane stalled for more than two days before finally moving onshore. (Photo courtesy of the National Weather Service) 0 10. those citizens who decide to stay. Evacuation plans for the coastal areas of Brunswick, New Hanover, Pender and OnsIow Counties have been studied by Post, Buckley, Schuh and Jernigan . The 1996 study indicates major routes that evacuees can take to inland areas such as Raleigh and Greensboro (see maps) ' County discussion and participation in a regional evacuation plan involving Brunswick,-Pender and Onslow Counties has not yet taken place. With development continuing to increase along these coastal Counties in the coming years, officials may want to seriously consider a regional evacuation plan (see Post, Buckley evac maps), especially with the proposed construction of the Northern Outer Loop in the next several years. The Northern Outer Loop will provide the Counties of Brunswick, New Hanover and Pender with greater vehicular access to U.S.' Highways such as 74/76, I-95 and I-40. • New Hanover County has a well established emergency plan that was put to the test last season with hurricanes Bertha and Fran. When the hurricane warning was issued by the National Hurricane Center for the County in advance of Fran, the County immediately activated its Emergency Operation Center (EOC). The County Commissioners also declared a state of • emergency which enabled the County to take immediate action to protect the'residents of the beach communities (Emergency Response Fran). The County also opened the Media Center, which was operated by county and municipal personnel the day before the storm to inform media outlets of important information so it could be released to the public alone with instructions on when to evacuate. During the Fran event, the Media Center continued to received updated in from the EOC. This information was provided through a series of "press releases" to the media which in turn provided the information to the public. Information included in the "press releases" included potential threats to the public such as fallen trees and power lines, health concerns and services that would be provided after the storm such as food, water, ice and other basic necessities. Through a steady flow of information to the media, the public continued to stay informed of on the cleanup process and utility restoration that took place after the storm. While the Emergency Operations Center responded well to the Bertha and Fran events, several areas of concern were expressed by Emergency Response Planning & Management, Inc (ERP & M). Among the areas of concern expressed by ERP & M included the need to work more closely with external organizations and jurisdictions such as utility companies, municipalities within the county, health care institutions & the State Emergency Operations Center. The continued development of mutual aid and volunteer organizations participating in humanitarian efforts during and after the storm was also seen in need of "beefing up." Finally, • the development of additional resources such as generators, heavy equipment and outside aid were deemed to be important. At the present time, the Emergency Management Department is fine tuning the Counties Emergency Operations Manual based on these concerns. This updated f • • 1996 EVACUATING PEOPLE STATISTICS BY COUNTY AND STORM SCENARIO North Carolina Hurricane Evacuation Restudy Brunswick Countv Maximum Evacuating Population/Public Shelter Demarfd Low Tourist Medium Tourist High Tourist Occupancy _-Occupancy _Occupancy Category 1-2 Hurricane 38,850/4,450 people 49,600/4,99-0 61,880/5,600 Category 3-5 Hurricane 49,070/7,030 people 62,870/7,720 78,640/8,500 _ Low Tourist Occupancy = 15% Public Shelter Capacity - 10,503 Medium Tourist Occupancy = 50% High Tourist Occupancy = 90% New Hanover County ' Maximum Evacuating Population/Public Shelter Demand Low Tourist High Tourist _Occupancy Occupancy Category 1-3 Hurricane 41,300/3,800 people 45,200/3,960 Category 4-5 Hurricane 56,900/7,400 people 61,100/7,650 )?ender Countv Low Tourist Occupancy = 50% Public Shelter Capacity - 1,550 High Tourist Occupancy = 90% Maximum Evacuating Population/Public Shelter Demand Low Tourist High Tourist Occupancy Occupancv Category 1-2 Hurricane 19,600/2,500 people 21,900/2,600 Category 3-5 Hurricane 22,100/3,400 people 24,860/3,550 Onslow County Category 1-2 Hurricane Category 3-5 Hurricane Low Tourist Occupancy = 50% Public Shelter Capacity - 1,633 High Tourist Occupancy = 90% Maximum Evacuating Population/Public Shelter Demand Low Tourist High Tourist Occupancy Occupancy 49,200/7,600 people 50,800/7,700 63,370/12,100 people' 65,190/12,240 Low Tourist Occupancy = 50% Public Shelter Capacity - 1,893 High Tourist Occupancy = 90% NOTE: Each scenario includes 100% of the population in the surge area plus all mobile homes plus a small percentage of the theoretically "non -vulnerable" population for each scenario. 9. •. ensuring that the extraordinarily expensive cycle of destruction and rebuilding is not endlessly is repeated. The purchase of high risk areas for open space and recreation is one of the best mitigating measures a local government can utilize. Currently, the State has control over the Fort Fisher -NC Aquarium Beaches and the purchase of Masonboro Island as a part of the Estuarine Research. Reserve Program is almost complete. V. EVACUATION POLICIES As mentioned, floodplain management and zoning tools are effective means in decreasing density (less evacuees) close to high energy areas that would absorb the brunt of a major ." hurricane. In New Hanover County, mobile homes and mobile home parks are not permitted - within the 100 year floodplain. Residential and commercial structures can be located within the 100 year flood zone providing that the lower floor be elevated two feet above flood level. Zoning regulations have in place a low density zoning district (R-20) in several areas of the County that contain low-lying and estuarine areas that are prone to flooding .With the number of residential • structures limited in these areas, the responsibility of local government to evacuate large numbers of citizens is minimized. In areas along the coast that have already been heavily developed prior to the establishment of stricter zoning codes and floodplain management, an effort to educate the public on when to safely evacuate prior to a major hurricane reaching landfall has been re-emphasized prior to every storm season. For the past several years, local government has held training sessions in various geographical areas of the County informing the public on the dangers of tropical systems and the many human inconveniences a storm can produce. Visual aids such as evacuation routes, low- lying areas that are prone to rain induced flooding prior to the storm event and other revelant information assist residents in making an informed decision on when to evacuate. This information can be obtained from the County's Emergency Management Department. At the present time, New Hanover County does not have a policy requiring major subdivision developments to provide emergency shelter. While additional alternative emergency shelter has been suggested by Post, Buckley, Schuh & Jernigan (see shelter figures by P,B,S & J), primary and secondary shelters listed in the County's Emergency Plan should currently provide adequate safety for citizens and tourists who choose to stay during a major hurricane event. It is worth noting that several new schools have been completed and several more are planned for the future. These new public facilities will greatly aid emergency shelter capacity as the population in the County continues to increase.If additional shelters are needed with the approach of a category 4 or 5 storm, churches and private businesses may be able to accomodate U North Carolina State Building Code's Basic Design Wind Velocities (in mph) •. 120 0 8. - • is issued within twelve months. Reconstruction must meet current building codes'and-.zoning requirements. If a non -conforming use is discontinued for more than 180 days, then the property must be used only for conforming purposes from that point on. Performance residential developments allow for flexible lot lines and setbacks, facilitating a site plan layout that avoids hazardous areas as opposed to the "cookie cutter" method of conventional subdivisions. Maximum density is based on a net tract acreage.after subtracting for natural ponds, lakes, rivers and class IV soils from the gross acreage. One .new option that a developer may have is to leave the class IV soils in their natural state (with the exception of tidal marsh) . This method would allow the developer to count reserved acreage as a part to his density calculations. Drainage regulations would also be required. High density developments like their cousin "Performance Developments" allow for flexible lot lines, and setbacks, thereby creating a site plan layout around environmentally sensitive and hazard areas. In order to apply for a high density project, the site must meet four critical elements•incl'uding being in a "developed" or "transitional" area based on the land use plan, adjoin a U.S. orN.C. numbered highway, have available water and sewer and meet the collector size road c'riieria. If a high density project meets these criteria, drainage regulations would also need to be met. Construction codes have also been widely utilized by local and state governments to reduce the hazard of flooding and intense winds by creating standards for flood proofing, elevation and wind resistance. The North Carolina State Building Code establishes basic wind load criteria of 120 miles per hour for oceanfront residential structures and 110 miles per hour for structures west of the Intracoastal Waterway (see Figure ). State Building Code criteria now require that all structures be reinforced at the base, including windows and doors ???- check with Jay. New Hanover County uses the State.Building Code for all of their commercial and residential inspections for all new structures. The preservation of floodprone areas as open space in New Hanover County is the most effective means of mitigating storm damage. Preservation can be achieved through public acquisition, restrictive regulations and deed restrictions. Acquistion and relocation of existing structures by the County would be ideal but impractical. A very natural motivation in the aftermath of a disaster is to not only allow victims to rebuild damaged or destroyed structures, but to economically or procedurally facilitate their ability to do so. While this has been a natural reaction on the part of the community and even local government to the hardship at hand, without careful planning, it simply places the restored property again in harms way of the next hurricane (Assesmt Fran, p.33). The Coastal Resources Commission is now struggling with this issue at North Topsail Beach and other areas after the Fran event. One main reason for local agencies to examine a win -win situation is that most homes built in high energy areas such as barrier islands are primary residential homes, not vacation homes or cottages of the 1950's and 60's. Unless the Federal government were to provide tax credits or some other tax incentive, it • will be continue to be very difficult for local and state government to find the optimum balance between allowing disaster victims to restore their property to its pre -disaster condition and 0, 7. Approximately.17,300 acres or 21,000 parcels of land are located within the 100 year .: floodplain in New Hanover County. This land includes swamps, but not marshlands or large . . waterbodies. Based on available permitting data, approximately 1,393 structures are located within the 100 year floodplain (NHC MIS/Inspections Department). Land use controls such as subdivision, mobile home placement and zoning code requirements are very effective regulatory tools in reducing the risk of flood damage to residential homes and commercial establishments. In New Hanover County, subdivision regulations currently require several elements of hurricane hazard information for new developments. Site plans require that 100 year floodplains, topography, watercourses and other drainage features be displayed. Developers are also req,-,,.red to submit additional information if they -plan to build on barrier islands. Information would include but not be limited to evacuation plans, estimated carrying capacities of the roads, bridges and low elevation points on their site plan. Zoning is also a very common instrument in managing land development. It is used to control the use of land and placement of structures via setbacks, density limits near areas of environmental concern and height limitations. Proposed development is restricted in hurricane hazard areas by zoning regulations. Several provisions within the ordinance help mitigate potential hazards associated with hurricanes. Key provisions include the Conservation Overlay District, non -conforming structures and performance/high density controls. The Conservation Overlay District developed in 1984 encompasses the entire unincorporated area of New Hanover County with the exception of Pleasure Island. This district protects certain natural resources common to the area. Several of these resources are hazard oriented areas to development. Resources that would be a hazard include swamp forest, natural ponds, marshes and maritime shrub thickets. The protection measures include varying setbacks, drainage restrictions with storm water retention, and preservation of between 50 to 100 % of the resource left in its natural state. For example, residential or commercial structures would be prohibited from being constructed along the shoreline due to strict setbacks imposed by the conservation overlay requirements. Setbacks range from 25 to 100 feet. Non -conforming structures involve the use of a building or land which does not conform to the regulations imposed by the zoning district in which it is located. Generally, non- conforming structures can not increase in area occupied and restrictions such as lot or yard requirements may not be reduced. If a non -conforming structure is totally or partially destroyed, it may be replaced provided notice of intent is provided within six months and a building permit STORM SURGE CONTOURS: CATEGORY 5. 77OW IRON NW - CAT 5 - 12 MPH m Mgm 8 9 7 6 5 /j� 4 New Hanover County 78*W 77*W 33*N 76*W 14 I /iJi 'l 75*W 340N 74*W 350N 4 5 6 Source: Eastern North Carolina Hu -ic Evacuation Study, 1987 • —3 --- 2 74P r STORM SURGE CONTOURS: CATEGORY 4 7 6 5' 4 .3 `�/��4 ® �� �m 2- New Hanover County 7A•W 77•W 33•N 76•W, 75•W 34•N 746W 35•N . IAON q�•� �e•ui Source: Eastern North. Carolina Hurricane Evacuation Study, 1987 0) requirements. The NFIP requires participating communities to regulate, by building permits, any new or substantially improved structures during non -disaster periods and to monitor and identify any substantially damaged structures as a result of a storm related event within the community's floodplain areas (see floodplain map). As an example, when an existing building has been substantially damaged (exceeds 50 % of pre -damaged market value), floodplain management regulations require that it be elevated to or above the current flood elevation. This retro-fitting of structures helps protect not only lives, but property and the ability to recover more quickly (FEMA Report). There are 57 counties and 362 muncipalities that have been defined as being in nature's way. Of these, 223 participate in the NFIP. New Hanover County participates in the National Flood Insurance Program which makes flood insurance available to all property owners. As an incentive to property owners, a more comprehensive approach to floodplain.'' management has been developed and is called the Community Rating System (CRS). Inthis mitigation effort, local governments have the opportunity to adopt more stringent floodplain management standards which are akin and appropriate for known local flood hazards. In return for compliance, local residents pay reduced insurance premiums to reflect enhanced mitigation actions. Approximately 56 local governments in addition to New Hanover County participate in the CRS. Other programs which assist in mitigating to reduce storm event damage include the Hazard Mitigation Grant Program, the Community Block Grants and Small Business Administration Loans. All three programs help assist individual property owners with retro- fitting and "relocating structures damaged structures. In some cases, several of these programs purchase substantially damaged buildings. As experienced with Bertha and Fran, most of New Hanover County is susceptible to hurricane induced flooding. In December 1992, a storm surge atlas was created using the Sea, Lake, and Overland Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model. The SLOSH model developed by Chester Jelesnianski of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Weather Service displays potential flooding levels within the County based on storm surge estimates. These estimates are based on various combinations of hurricane strength, forward motion, wind speed, direction of movement and use of the Saffir-Simpson Scale. The modeling for each hurricane category, was achieved by using seven storm tracking headings (W, WNW, NW, NNW, N, NNE & NE) as indicative of storm behavior in coastal North Carolina. Using the storm surge model for New Hanover County, projections indicate that the County would be subjected to substantial flooding (see Figures I & II) well inland along creeks and streams. This information is based on a worst case scenario of a category 5 storm moving • northwest with a forward speed of 35 miles per hour. A more detailed report describing these hurricane scenarios is available for review at the County Depar.of Emerg. Management. TO 30tGAW •� NEW H z ANOVER COUNTY iii ^:.y •\• i0 CLIN7'OH :�:�9r�%i;'yx,..:!" �4ft • ,;sr;;.r; - ((.'•'.:<. ''t:+;iv/rN'`,..'�''S' •� \ TO JACKSONVILLL. r• f �tJ i � rl •/� IIl lNlET • SEVERITY OF RISK IN HAZARD AREA HAZARD AREA EXPOSURE TO DAMAGING FORCES Severity Erosion/ Wave Action/ Flooding., High Rank Scour Battering Wind OCEAN ERODIBLE AEC 1 INLET HAZARD AEC 1 ESTAURINE SHORELINE AEC 1 V-ZONE 2 WETLAND AEC 2 ' A -ZONE 3 REST OF COMMUNITY 4 . Exposure Level: High - 0 Moderate - 0 Low - In October, the remanents of Hurricane Josephine visited the weary residents of the Cape Fear area with winds and rain. While for the most part wind damage was non-existent, flooding occurred in parts of New Hanover County as over 3 inches fell over most of the area. With 3 tropical storms in 4 months, County officials became quickly educated on the area's vunerability to drainage and storm water related issues. Hurricanes along the southeast coast of North Carolina are a fact of life. Despite . mitigation efforts of the past, Bertha and Fran dramatically redefined the shore line and protective primary dune system (before Bertha and Fran picture). Various levels of dune and beach erosion along with wind driven salt spray occurred from Kure Beach to Atlantic Beach caused a loss of vegetation and changes in the mean high water line (DEHNR Report -Owens). As stated in an earlier mitigation report (Dec, 1991), specific areas along the County's coast are highly exposed to natural shoreline erosion. These conditions are exacerbated vkhen•you include excessive wave action, scouring of the dune system and flooding. These areas afe defined as Ocean Erodible Areas of Environmental Concern (AEC's), Inlet AEC's and Estuarine Shoreline AEC's. These areas are most critical for hurricane protection planning.Table displays these hazard areas and their severity of risk. A good example of an Inlet Hazard AEC would be Mason Inlet. For the past five years, the inlet has migrated south at a remarkable rate. These natural forces along with the storm events of 1996 has removed the primary dune line that once protected the resort at Shell Island. With the threat of future storms and the lack of a protective dune line system and adequate setbacks, the resort is facing serious challenges from the natural forces of nature, resort residents, and environmental planners. IV. COASTAL STORM MITIGATION POLICIES Reducing the risk of fatalities and property damage from the harmful effects of hurricanes has always been the primary goal of local government emergency planners and policy makers. Because of the inherited responsibility to protect the public health and safety of coastal residents, many local governments have reacted well to coastal,storm problems, especially flooding and high winds. Local government response has resulted in the geographic delineation of storm prone areas as they relate to flooding. Additionally, existing land use controls such as subdivision and zoning regulations along with stringent building construction codes have greatly helped mitigate storm hazards as experienced with Bertha and Fran in 1996. The National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) created in 1968 is a federal program designed to mitigate the nation's susceptibility to floods and flood related hazards. The thrust of the program is to guide the location and quality of development in flood prone areas. In order to participate, a local community must adopt and enforce flood plain management regulations which meet minimum federal O C' .L'VLM 0 ,L s M Q C3 v o �o N L a co CY) �r w N M O c v O O 0 ca 000 > OOO 7 W LO M U O tr I , + O to ' 0 L ' %- O O O N 0too 0 IU.0OU)e-MLO E OJR O - Z C] 0 Table ' CRITICAL ROADWAY SEGMENTS North Carolina Hurricane Evacuation Restudv Brunswick County NC 133 and NC 211 intersection northwest of Southport NC 130 out of Holden Beach NC 87 and US 17 intersection at Bell Swamp NC 87 and US 74/76 intersection US 17 intersections with NC 904, NC 130, and NC 211 New Hanover County Carolina Beach Road south of and at Monkey Junction College Road and Oleander Drive intersection Cape Fear River Memorial drawbridge Market Street and Eastwood Road intersection Pender Countv NC 210 from US 17 to I-40 Ocean Boulevard From Surf City to NC 50 US 17/NC 50 intersection at Holly Ridge in Onslow County NC 210 on ramp to I-40 northbound Onslow County Marine Boulevard between Lejeune Boulevard and NC 53 US 17 and US 258 intersection west of New River US 17/NC 50 intersection at Holly Ridge NC 24 and US 17 intersection NC 210 and NC 172 (Four Corners) intersection US 17 and NC 210 intersection c . r �m Figure Evacuation' Traffic Congestion o-, Category 1-3 Hurricane Low Tourist Occupancy N W g S 0 2 4 6 8 10 Miles 15 Evacuation Zone Evacuation Traffic Congestion 0 -1 hours of travel demand 6� -/1.01 .3 3.01 - 4 �4.01 - 6 �6.01 + New Hanover County • Figure Evacuation Traffic Congestion Category 4-5 Hurricane High Tourist Occupancy N W E S 0 2 4 6 V 10 Miles F—j5-j Evacuation Zone Evacuation Traffic Congestion '`0 - 1 hours of travel demand 1.01 - 3 3.01 - 4 �PW4.01 - 6 W/6.01 + New.Hanover County Brunswick County Table CLEARANCE TIMES (IN HOURS) North Carolina Hurricane Evacuation Restudy Low Tourist Category 1-2 Hurricane Occupancy Rapid Response 7 %4 hours Medium Response 8 Long Response 9 y2 Category 3-5 Hurricane Rapid response 7 %2 Medium Response 8 /4 Long Response 9 y2 New Hanover County Low Tourist Cate mory 1-3 Hurricane Occupancy Rapid Response 5 /2 Medium Response 6 /2 Long Response 9 y2 Cate�o__ry 4-5 Hurricane Rapid Response 6 %2 Medium Response 7 %4 Long Response 9 /2 Medium Tourist High Tourist. Occupancy ccu ancv 9 %2 12 % 10 %4 14 %2 11 %2 16 %2 10 %4 13 %2 11 15 12 %4 17 V4 High Tourist Occupancy 7 8 '/4 10 '/4 7 3/4 9 '/ 11 '/4 • �A 11. manual will be ready in the next few months. Hazard mitigation grants appear to be the best solution as it relates to long term reconstruction activity for the County. As an example , New Hanover County has recently applied for a grant to mitigate against the hazards of flooding. This project is seen as the initial phase of a comprehensive storm water management plan which will provide base information for regulations on development which will protect future property relocation as well as improving the effectiveness of early flood warning systems. New Hanover Counties Policies for Growth and Development calls for the implementation of a storm water management plan and restrictions on development in hazardous areas. The establishment of a."Recovery Task Force" after a major storm event will consist of members of the County Management Team. In concert with the Department of Emergency Management, this task force should include the following individuals: 1. Two elected officials. (County Commissioners, City Council, Beach Community Of c'ials) 2. County Manager & Assistant County Managers 3. Emergency Management Director & Designee 4. County Engineer 5. County Health Director 6. Planning Director 7. Zoning Administrator 8. Inspections Director 9. Property Management Director 10. County Sheriff 11. County Fire Marshal 12. Real estate and construction representatives (one from each) 13. Bellsouth representative 14. CP&L representative 15. City of Wilmington representative 16. "No Cuts" representative 17. Cable TV representaive 18. NCDOT representative 19.Other members as designated Members of this task force shall be appointed annually by the Board of County Commissioners. The Board of County Commissioners will be advised by the task force on the status of post reconstruction progress. A primary element of the task force is to receive and assess damage reports from the "local assessment teams as defined in the County Emergency Plan. Other responsibilities of the task force would include: 12. 1. Reviewing the nature of the damages, identifying and evaluating alternative program approaches for repairs and reconstruction and also formulating recommendations for handlirig County recovery. ' 2. Recommending possible rezoning adjustments in areas of severe damage to prevent or .. ' . reaccomodate new building. 3. Setting a definitive, yet flexible calendar of reconstruction goals with the cooperation -of other local officials. 4. Initiating requests for repairs and upgrading critical utilities. 5. Recommending the expiration or extension of the moratorium on structual repairs..:; 6. Recommending the extension or termination of the moratorium on new developm6nt., .' 7. Initiating negotiations for relocations and acquistions of property with local and state agencies. 8. Participate in federal hazard mitigation planning and apply for hazard mitigation grants. • 9.Other To prevent a recurrence of major coastal damage, the task force could also recommend to the Board of County Commissioners changes in the zoning, subdivision, mobile home park, building codes or any other regulations to protect the public. The local damage assessment team is responsible for locating and identifying storm related structures that pose a risk of human habitation. These assessment findings will be communicated to the Inspections Director as to whether the structures have been destroyed, received major damage (foundation, roof, etc.) or minor damage (minimal repair). The Department of Inspections can then verify what has been accomplished by the assessment team classify each structure accordingly. Out of town building inspectors is strongly recommended in the event of a major hurricane. A building/construction moratorium shall be declared if the occurrence of one or more of the following elements: 1. The County is directly hit by a major hurricane (category 3 or greater) based on the Saffir- Simpson scale as determined by the National Hurricane Center. • 2. The County is decalred a disaster area by the Governor of North Carolina and the President of the United States. • 0 ` Duration of Moratorium. May be cancelled or extended by the Reconstruction Task Force or by resolution by Board of Commisioners. r� • tEmergency repairs can be done anytime - examples: minor interior repairs acid repairs necessary to ;prevent injury, loss of life or imminent collapse. 13. • 3. Several hundred or more structures have received major damage or been destroyed -as determined by the Inspections Department. 4. Upon determination by the Inspections Director that a building moratorium be declared for tits protection of lives, safety and property or due to the inability of the County to maintain acceptable levels of public order and services. Once a building moratorium has been declared, the recovery task force will be activated. The initial building moratorium shall be in effect for at least two days (see figure -may want to modify). Building permits will not be issued during this time. tuilding permits will not be issued for 30 working days following the termination of the initial moratorium for the replacement of any structure which has been defined as "destroyed." The replacement of any structure shall be subject to meeting all the requirements of the County's zoning regulations, building codes and all coastal area mandates. For structures that have received major structual damage from a major storm -event, a seven working day waiting period will be required following the expiration of the initial moratorium. All necessary repairs shall meet applicable zoning and building code requirements. Permits for the repair of structuals • p that have received only minor damage from a major storm event may be issued following the expiration of the initial moratorium. All minor repairs will be in accordance with applicable zoning, building and coastal regulations. If a major storm event takes place, building permits issued prior to the event shall be void and not reissued for a period not less than 30 working days following the initial moratorium. This block of time may be relaxed on a case by case basis if in the opinion of the Director of Inspections, sufficient staff and other available resources are present. Revoked building permit applications shall be reissued at no cost. Preliminary site plans submitted to the County Planning staff prior to the storm event which have been not approved by the Planning Board's Technical Review Committee shall not be . reviewed for a period of 30 working days following the expiration of the initial moratorium. Scheduled Technical Review Committee meetings shall be established after the moratorium is lifted. The 30 day moratorium shall also apply to any submittal of final plats, minor plats, mobile home park/travel trailer park plans, rezonings, special use applications and, conditional use applications. Again, submittal dates will be adjusted to reflect the moratorium expiration. All moratoriums may be cancelled or extended by the Recovery Task Force or resolution • by the Board of County Commissioners depending on the nature of the damage from the storm and the availability of resources coming into the County. • 14. Emergency repairs to roofs and other minor structural nusicenses may be permissible to prevent injury, loss -of life or immediate structural collapse. Minor interior repairs may also take - place to prevent additional damage from wind and water after the storm event. The repair and possible replacement of public infrastructure would be a significant priority in the restoration chain of events following a major storm. It is extremely vital that if repair or . • . replacement is needed on public facilities, mitigations efforts should be made to ensure that the structures be more resistant to the impacts of a disaster (Response Fran, p.31). If structures of this nature can function properly during and after a storm event, the protection and response to the public safety and health can be assured. The repair and protection of public infrastructure would include emergency shelters, the availability of generators to provide water and sewer to not only residential enclaves, but also commercial and industrial facilties. VI. CONCLUSIONS AND POLICY RECOMENDATIONS Based on the Bertha and Fran storm events from the summer of 1997 and other well • documented literature, public officials along with the citizens of New Hanover County are very aware of the property damage and recovery operations that could materialize with the next major storm. Due to the projected frequency for these naturally occurring events, the following policies are suggested for inclusion in the Wilmington -New Hanover County Larid-Use Plan Update to assist in the orderly reconstruction of public property. POLICY:Immediate clean-up and removal of debris from publically mainatined roads.will be the responsibility of the North Carolina Department of Transportation. New Hanover County will be responsible for the clean-up of roads not yet accepted by NCDOT that have been dedicated for public use. It will be the responsibility of private development homeowners to clean-up debris on private roads. POLICY: The responsibility for directing reconstruction within New Hanover County after a major/damaging storm event shall be the Recovery Task Force. This task force shall be responsible for advising the Board of County Commissioners on a diverse range of poststorm issues and a daily/weekly status report on recovery efforts. POLICY: A building moratorium of no less than 30 working days following the initial two day moratorium shall not occur unless authorized or extended by the Recovery Task Force or resolution by the Board of County Commissioners. 15. POLICY: Following a major storm event, the County will take advantage of opportunities to acquire or purchase land located in storm hazard areas which are rendered unbuildable. The property should satisfy objectives including, but not limited to the conservation of open space, scenic areas and provision of public water access. After a major storm event, there are numerous federal and state programs that are available to the County to aid in disaster recovery and reconstruction. These programs can provide assistance through local government to individuals, businesses, families. . and non profit organizations. Some of these programs can be only implemented upon declaration of a major disaster by the President of the United States. Other programs can be made available independently of a Presidential Declaration of a major disaster emergency. POLICY: The damaging effects and lessons learned from Hurricane Fran present a golden opportunity to review, adjust and polish the County's Emergency Plan. This. practical experience gained from Fran will help identify those areas within the realm of regulatory, programatic and administrative options to mitigate future vulnerability to disasters. POLICY: In order to prevent or minimize the damaging effects from a major storm and to recover quickly, the County in concert with local and regional insurance agencies shall • provide incentives not only the property owners, but also builders to construct a well built and sound home that meets or exceeds County and State building codes. These incentives shall be in the form of lower insurance premiums to homeowners and perspective buyers of homes. 0 REFERENCES 1. McElyea, W.D., D.J. Bowers, and D.R. Godschalk, 1982, `Before The Storm: Managing -- Development To Reduce Hurricane Damages," Center For Urban & Regional Studies, UNC-Chapel Hill. 2. Barnes, Jay, NORTH CAROLINA'S HURRICANE HISTORY, University North Carolina Press, 1995. 3. Williams, Jack, THE WEATHER BOOK, Vintage Books, N.Y., 1993. 4. New Hanover County Department Emergency Management, 1997, "Bertha and Fran Statistics," New Hanover County, Wilmington, NC. 5. New Hanover County Planning Department, "Hurricane & Reconstruction Plan,".-1991', New Hanover County, Wilmington, NC. 6. Owens, David, 1997, "Overview of the Development of Ocean Hazard Rules," Division iEnvironmental Health & Natural Resources, Raleigh, NC. - 7. FEMA-1134-DR-NC, "North Carolina Mitigation Strategy Report," State of North Carolina Division of Emergency Management, Raleigh, NC. 8. Storm Surge Group of National Hurricane Center, 1992, "The Storm Surge Atlas," U.S. Army Corps Engineers? 9. New Hanover County Department of Inspections, 1997, "Permit Data," New Hanover County, Wilmington, NC. 10. Emergency Response Planning & Management, 1996,"The Emergency Response to Fran," Princeton, N.J. 11. Post, Buckley, Schuh & Jernigan, 1996, "Transportation Analysis Update: North Carolina Hurricane Evacuation Restudy for Brunswick, New Hanover, Pender and Onslow Counties," Tallahassee, Florida. 12. Nags Head Planning Department, 1988, `'Hurricane & Storm Mitigation and Reconstruction Plan," Town of Nags Head, Nags Head, NC. 13. New Hanover County Planning Department, 1990, "Floodplain Management Plan," New Hanover County, Wilmington, NC. Technical Reports Wilmington New Hanover County Comprehensive Plan i Housing of New Hanover County and Wilmington, North Carolina A Technical Report for the City and County Comprehensive Plan 1997-2010 • October 1998 Prepared by the City of Wilmington Planning Division 202 N. 3rd Street, 4 h Floor; Wilmington, NC 28401 (910) 341-3258 Community Development Division 202 N. 3rd Street, 2nd Floor, Wilmington, NC 28401 (910) 341-7836 New Hanover County, Planning Department 414 Chestnut Street, Suite 304, Wilmington, NC 28401 (910) 341-7165 0 Housing Wilmington - New Hanover County, North Carolina Table of Contents page I. Introduction 1.1 11. Summary -111. Existing and projected housing lII-1 IV. Number and size of households rV_1 V. Household income -in -generalized -planning areas -V-1 VI. Median home value by census tracts -1990 -v1.1 VII. Housing sales costs compared 1990 -1997 VU-1 Vill. Affordable housing-chailenges ViII-1 IX. City - County Affordable and rehabilitation housing Programs_1 X. University of North Carolina - Wilmington, -housing x-1 XI. Household mobility =1997 -1 XII. Owner occupied housing=1990Ii-1 XIII. Demolition and code compliance MIM XIV. Historic preservation - economic and housing trends 1UV_1 A. Appendix A-1 U it I. 'Introduction This technical report is part of the County and City Comprehensive Plan 1997-2010 effort.' The purpose of this report is to -show the housing characteristics of New Hanover County and Wilmington. The current -housing characteristics are presented with projections to the year 2010. The housing characteristics and trends presented in the report are: size; number; income; home value; housing sales; rent costs; affordable housing; student housing; mobility; occupancy; code enforcement; and historic preservation. This report will provide information for fixture affordable housing and land use needs. This information should guide public issues, policy, and implementation actions. • ' In addition this report fulfills requirements of state Coastal Area Management Act with regard to land • use planning (for more details see the Appendix). II. Summary - Existing• and projected housing Wilmington is projected to add 4,000 new housing units from 1997 to 2010. The unincorporated County is projected to build more than twice this amount at 8,900 units. Based on current trends, the urbanizing area around Wilmington, should see an increase of apartments and single-family attached housing, from 6 to 12% as the cost of land becomes increasingly expensive. Number and size of households The County is projected to add 18,000 new households by 2010 for a 30% increase. Countyhousehold size could decrease from 2.40 to 2.34 persons per household by 2010. Projections of household size in the City to 2010 are difficult to estimate. Although there will be an increase in the aging "baby boomers" and perhaps "empty nester parents", their increase could be offset by an increase in people living together. This would be the result of increased cost of renting and home ownership. Household income in generalized planning areas Mean household income in the City decreased slightly by approximately $500 after factoring in inflation from 1990 to 1997. Mean household income in the unincorporated County has increased from $1,800 to $4,600 per household after adjusting for inflation. Median home value by census tracts -1990 i In 1990 median home values increased from the inner City of Wilmington at $39,900, to the inner suburbs at $70,200, to the outer suburbs at $79,900. Many units in the historic downtown have been renovated since 1990, and preliminary data analysis shows that the median cost of housing in the inner City is rebounding to values found in the suburbs. Housing sales costs compared 1990-1997 Comparison of census and sales data shows that the median price of housing in the County rose from $75,300 in 1990, to $120,000 in 1997. This is an increase of 59%. Comparison of 1990 census median housing values and 1997 sales cost of housing shows an increase of approximately 59% in the past seven years. During this time average weekly wages have been stagnant, especially in Wilmington, with a slight decrease during the same time period. This should raise concerns of affordable housing for many of our citizens. Affordable housing challenges Estimates are that there were approximately 8,300 County families in 1997 who could not afford housing that sold for more than $80,000. In 1997 there were only approximately 500 units of housing were available under the $80,000 price. This means that 7,800 families were effectively locked out of the housing market as there was an inadequate supply of affordable housing. An estimated 13% of families in the City and County in 1997 could not afford a house that cost more than $78,500. An extended trend shows there will be an even larger number of families • II-1 -� who can not afford to buy a home by 2010 unless affordable housing policy and construction is implemented. In the 1990's, rents in the County have been increasing at 4% to 6% per year. During this same time period, weekly wages have been stagnant. Low and moderate income families are increasingly paying more of their income for housing. Affordable and rehabilitation housing programs City and County low and moderate income affordable housing with new construction and renovation was approximately 66 homes in 1997. If this amount is subtracted from the 7,856 families in 1997 who were locked out of the housing market this still leaves approximately 7,790 families in the City and County who were unable to afford a home. In the past three years, the Home Ownership Pool loan program has invested over $1 million for purchase and renovation of older homes for moderate income families for approximately 20 homes. In the last three years, the City of Wilmington assisted 76 home owners renovate their homes with Direct and Home Loans for low to moderate income families. In the last ten years, the Wilmington Housing Finance and Development, Inc. has made $15.5 million dollars worth of loans for 405 housing units. The Fannie Mae Lease Purchase Program has a high demand, but currently is in need of grant support to continue. From 1993 to 1997, $150,000 in loans were provided for eight new • homes and two renovated homes. Since Project Home began, four houses have been constructed and sold in 1998 for low and moderate income families. The agency that oversees the project proposes to expand their housing construction program into the unincorporated County. The County has used Community Development Block Grant money to rehabilitate more than 30 homes, constructed five homes, and provided six manufactured homes for low and moderate income families, and made County sewer and drainage improvements. The Wilmington Housing Authority has plans to build approximately 125 single family and multi -family housing units at Jervay Place, with additional community amenities and commercial uses. There are additional plans to build approximately 100 single family homes on scattered sites throughout the City. A private sector non-profit affordable housing program provides a valuable service to the County and City. If the number of families who would like to own a home but can not afford one is to be reduced, programs such as Habitat for Humanity will need more public and private support. II-2 MIZ University of North Carolina - Wilmington Housing Estimates for 1997 to 2010 are that between 500 to 1,000 of off -campus housing units will need to be constructed to accommodate the increased number of students at UNCW. Household mobility A large number of household turnover was found to occur in the vicinity of UNCW due to of the relatively mobile student population. Two areas were found to have very low turnover, one area is located downtown and the other area is in the northern part of the City. Owner occupied housing 1990 Owner occupancy of housing in 1990 was found to increase from the inner City at 38%, to the inner suburbs at 49%, and to the outer siibuTbs at 67%. This trend correlated with an increase of household income. The beach towns show a low occupancy rate of approximately 54% due to seasonal habitation, compared with the northern and southern portions of the County occupancy of approximately 82%, and the outer suburbs of Wilmington at 67%. Demolition and code compliance From 1993 to 1997, the City demolished an average eight houses per year that were unfit for habitation. Since 1992, in partnership between the City and WHFD, Inc., 21 new affordable homes have been built on the demolition sites. Historic preservation - economic and housing trends Since 1976, approximately 100 projects, including historic residential and commercial buildings, have been renovated through federal and state tax credit programs. This has involved over $19.3 million dollars for construction costs. This rehabilitation has directly contributed to the revitalization of downtown Wilmington. The recent renovation to many properties in the historic downtown area has led to increased property and housing values. The rebounding downtown is pushing up tax values and forcing out some of the poorer residents. This poses the challenge of retaining affordable housing for some of the existing residents. Wilmington has become an active tourist center because of its historic houses and associated cultural resources. Heritage tourists spend on average $62 more per day than other tourists. This is an important economic infusion of money into the local economy. • II-3 Ll M. Existing and Projected Housing Tmnd. Wilmington is projected to add-4,000 new housing units from 1997 to 2010. The unincorporated County is projected to build over twice this amount at 8,900 units. The following table lists the existing and projected housing from 1997 to 2010. The location of the areas are shown on the next page. Wilmington and the County are projected to add approximately 12,900 new units in the next 12 years. It is projected in the unincorporated County will have over twice the number of units built compared to the City. For more details see Table A 1 in the Appendix. Existing and Projected Housing Summary Number of Units # New units '97210 Nov. 1997 2010 % Change per yr'97-'10 New Units Wilmington 28,273 32,245 14% 306 3,972 Unincorporated County 33,171 42,095 27% 686 8,924 Urbanizing County 25,062 33,011 32% 611 7,949 Non -Urban County 7,559 8,485 12% 71 926 Total Wil. and Unincor. Co. 61,444 74,340 21% 992 12,896 30000 N M 25000 C a 20000 O S i C Projected Housing Unit Growth 1997-2010 78,9M01997 02010 ............ - --- ..._ _ _.. -- ------........ - _ Wilmington Urbanizing County Non -Urban County Unincorporated County Note: Number of new units rounded to nearest 100. NU1 VITA , • U1 U3 U U2 �i U4 Us NU City and County Planning Areas NU2 Wilmington W Snows cut Urbanizing County U Non -Urban County NU • III-2 �* The percent of housing type is shown in • the following pie charts for three simplified planning areas. The best diff erence rence "ff e between the areas is that 35% of Wilmington's housing is apartments, while the urbanizing and non -urban areas are composed of approximately 2 to 3% apartments. Wilmington - Housing Dwellings: % by Units (Nov. 1997) Mobile Home Apartments 3+ units 2'6 35% Single Family Attached 4% Single Family 52% Trend. 1997-2010.- Based on current -trends, the urbanizing -area around .Wilmington, should see an increase of apartments.and single-family attached housing.from 6-to 12% as the cost -of land becomes increasingly expensive. Housing • projections were tied to population growth and existing persons per household. The general housing growth model from 1997 to 2010 projected by staff assumed that recent and current trends will continue. The City as of 1997 had a relatively high amount of multi- family housing compared with the rest of the County, and this trend is expected to continue. • Urbanizing County - Housing Dwellings: % by Units (Nov. 1997) Duplex Apartments Single Family Attached 3% 3+ units - 2% Mobile Home 8% 5% _... III-3 Single Family 82% For the urbanizing County area, future growth to 2010 is Non -Urban County - Housing Dwellings: % by Units (Nov.1997) projected to become increasingly similar to Duplex Apartments 3+ units-O% Wilmington. As Single Family Attached 30,E Mobile Home 1 % 15% • • III-4 • • IV. Number and Size of Households Trend. Household Number. The County is projected to add .18,000 new households by 2010 for a 30% increase. The County increased it's number of households from1990 to 1997 by 23% to approximately 48,100 to 59,100. The projection is that the County will add approximately 18,000 new households by 2010, for a 30% increase. County Households 1990 1997 Per year % increase 2010 Increase in % increase increase '90-'97 HH'97-'10 '97-10 New Hanover County 48,139 59,109 1,567 23% 77,101 17,992 30% Source. 1990 & 1997 CPA, 1997; 2010 projection by Wil. Plan. Div. & NHC Plan. Dept Trend. -Household Size. County household size could decrease from 2.40 to 2.3.4 persons. per household .by 2010. _ Projections of household size in the- City to ,2010 are difficult to estimate. ..Although there will be -an increase in the aging "baby boomers" and perhaps "empty nester parents", their increase could be offset by an increase in people. living together. This would be the result of increased cost of-rentinq and home ownership. The following table shows that household size in Wilmington dropped from 2.45 in 1980 to 2.26 in 1990. Since 1990, it has remained about the same at approximately 2.26 to 2.27 persons per household. New Hanover County household size has been higher than the City but it decreased from 2.43 persons per household (pphh) in 1990, to 2.40 pphh in 1997. County- Household Size Household size 1980 1990 1997 2010 Wilmington 2.45 2.26 2.27 ? New Hanover County 2.69 2.43 2.40 2.34 Source: Wilmington, 1980 &'90 US Census,'97 based on housing count by Wil. Plan. Div. & NHC Plan. Dept NHC: from NHC Plan. Dept IV-1 V. Household Income in Generalized Planning Areas -, Income estimates for 1990 and 1997 for the Cityand Count are shown in the following Y ' two charts (Community Profile ,analysis 1997, ed., New Hanover Co., NC. By: Stratggic Mapping Inc. Arlington, VA and Claritas, Ithaca, NY. ). To make the comparison meaningful, the 1990 incomes were adjusted for inflation in 1997 dollars. Mean household income in Wilmington has decreased by approximately $500 since 1990. All areas of the urban and non -urban County have experienced mean household income increases ranging from $1,800 to $4,600. The area south of Snows Cut, which includes the towns of Kure Beach and Carolina Beach has seen a $5,600 increase. Trend. Mean household income in the City decreased slightly by 1 approximately $500 after factoring in inflation from 1990 to 1997. Mean household income in the unincorporated County has increased from $1,800 to $4,600 per household after adjusting for inflation. From: Community Profile Analysis V-1 • • Non -Urban County Areas & South of Snows Cut Household Income -1990 Adjusted for Inflation 60,000 0 Year 1990 E 50,000 El Year 1997 O 0 30,000 d 0 20,000 - € 10 000 NU1 (N. County) NU2 (S. County) S. of Snws. Cut For location see map From: Community Profile Analysis • • V-2 VI. Median Home Value by Census Tracts -1990 Trend. In 1990 median home values increased from the inner.City of Wilmington at $39,900, to the inner suburbs at $70,200, to. the outer suburbs at $79,900: Many units in the historic downtown have been renovated since 1990, and preliminary data analysis shows that the median cost of housing in the inner City is rebounding to values found in the-suburbs. The below table summarizes the mediair home value by census tracts in Wilmington and the County for 1990 (Source: CPA 1997). On the next page is a map of the locations. Page VI-3 has the location of the remaining north and south County tracts. The trend shows that median home values in 1990 increased from the inner City at approximately $39,900, to the inner suburbs at $70,200, to the outer suburbs around Wilmington at $79,900. The north-northeast County median home value was $74,500. Wrightsville Beach and Figure Eight Island had by far the highest median tract value at approximately $206,000. The south County was $76,000. The New Hanover County median home value in 1990 was $61,479. New Hanover County Summary Table Median Home Value ($) 1990 Location Median Home Value ($) Wilmington inner City 39,919 Wilmington inner suburbs 70,223 Outer suburbs around Wilmington 79,907 Northern portion of County 74,471 Wrightsville Beach - Figure Eight Is. 205,797 Southern portion of County 76,035 New Hanover County overall 61,479 Source U.S. Census VI-1 • • • r Wilmington Area 1990 Median Home Values Inner Inner Subur Outer Sub r j i y r x a014416M 116.01 114 '•�"i x x 103 ,� 117.01 5 101 ;+ 10 5.01, r, o x City 112 ^ ,- ..u.. 104 0 10119,61 0 o I X x �•°'4� 105.02 Fr ° 113 11 — • • Y 119.02 b 109 �',.� o 120.01,1 ° 107 v.. o bS "° ., ..... o 108 , o ` 120.03 , o o o nymur MOO r o 120.02�urbs o o x 1990 Median Home Value (S) x o 121.01 X X n ® 0 - 38,999 x x 40,000 - 59,999 Area Boundary Map Wilming;on;Ne:+ Hanover County x,� ` '� 60,000 - 89,999 x - --" Wilming;on Corporata Limit ° 90,000 - 99,999 c Census hac:s -� p s City Of `Pllminton GIS .: 110,000 - 130,000 VI-2 Census Tracts Outside of Wilmington Area • • VI-3 The following charts show the median home value in 1990 by census tract for Wilmington • and the County as shown on maps on the preceding two pages. In 1990, housing values increased from the inner City at approximately $39,900 to the outer suburbs at $79,900. Wrightsville Beach and Figure Eight Island had by far the most expensive housing with a median value of $206,000. • • Wilmington & County Median Home Value ($) 1990 140,(= .. .... ......... ....... ......... .......... ...... ...... 120,000 I V.J'000 > 80,000 0 0 E 60,000 Inner city M Avg. value $39.900 (U 40,000 . .. .... ....... ...... ... ..... .. ... . . ... ....... .. ....... ...... ......... . . .............. 20 Inner City Suburbs ,000 Outer Suburbs9. value $70,200 Avg. value 579,900 O 8 C7 Q4 8 C� (d d ci 8 — — R R R North & South County, Wrightsville Beach & Fig. Eight Is. Median Home Value ($) 1990 , 150,000 E 100,000 ecO 50,000 Census Tracts 115 116.02 117.02 V1-4 118 121.02 122 VII. Housing Sales Costs Compared 1990-1997 The following table and real estate map show the City and County 1997 sales cost of housing (courtesy of the Wilmington Regional Association of Realtors, Inc.). In 1997 the County median cost of housing was $120,000 and the average cost was $154,230. Not surprisingly some of the most expensive housing is found along the sound and beach areas of Figure Eight Island - Wrightsville Beach (Area 5) and the general area of Masonboro Loop Road - Greenville Loop Road (Area 2), and south of Snows Cut (Area 6). Most of Wilmington is found in areas 3 and 4 on the map below. Areas 3 and 4 generally show a less expensive median price of housing compared with other areas. This is likely the case because of the wide range of income, housing costs, and large population. The median and average sales price in $ for County housing in 1997. Median Price Map Single Family All Units Location area 2 Bdrms 3 Bdrms 4 Bdrms Condo Median Price North East County 1 86,700 111,000 205,000 68,825 117,995 South East County 2 96,900 138,750 217,125 114,000 150,000 South West County 3 69,900 117,900 183,000 83,000 109,600 North West County 4 77,000 106,000 158,500 88,595 97,000 Wrightsville Beach - Figure Eight Is. 5 247,000 435,000 510,750 332,500 384,000 South of Snows Cut 6 79,900 150,000 195,000 90,000 105,500 County wide 1-6 79,000 119,775 207,950 89,000 120,000 Average Price Map Single Family All Units Location area 2 Bdrms 3 Bdrms 4 Bdrms Condo Average Price North East County 1 114,321 136,359 381,797 93,804 176,618 South East County 2 98,260 149,051 242,165 114,373 173,310 South West County 3 73,190 121,951 210,298 91,455 120,951 North West County 4 76,019 123,986 151,884 85,057 116,530 Wrightsville Beach - Figure Eight Is. 5 247,000 540,591 558,231 303,252 418,792 South of Snows Cut 6 92,680 168,405 205,963 104,445 125,097 County Wide 1-6 86,934 137,354 274,741 112,949 164,230 New Hanover County Real Estate Mao ?seas 1 to 6 Trend. Comparison.of census and sales data shows that the median price of housing in the County rose from $75,300 in 1990, to $120,000 in 1997. This is an increase of 59%. The median cost of a home in the County in 1990 was $61,479 (see table on page VII-1; from Census). Adjusting for inflation, the value was $75,308 in 1997 dollars. The median cost of home sales in the County in 1997 was $120,000 (see table above; from real estate data). This is an increase of 59% in the last seven years. • VII-1 • • Median Home Cost $ Comparison 1990297 New Hanover County 1990 ($) 1990 $'s adjusted for 1997 Includes all housing: % Increase inflation to 1997 $'s 2, 3, & 4 Bed -rooms & ($75,308 to Condo ($) $120,000) 61,479 75,308 120,000 59% Source. 1990 U.S. Census from CPA, 1997; 1997 Housing cost WAR, Inc. While the cost of housing has continued to rise, wages have stagnated in the last ten years. The following table shows that pay has slightly decreased in the last decade in the County after accounting for inflation! The overall County pay average was $313 per week in 1987 and was $433 per week in 1997. This apparent $120 perfweek increase in pay evaporates when the effects of inflation are included. After adjusting for inflation, wages have decreased by $8 per week from 1987 to 1997. Comparison with household income on pages V-1 and V-2 suggests that the decrease is concentrated in Wilmington and that the surrounding unincorporated County and beach towns have faired better. Average Weekly Wages - New Hanover County 1987297 .1967 1987 $'s adjusted for 1997 Change 1987 to'97 after accounting for inflation to 1996 $'s inflation -Weekly Wages All Jobs $313 $441 $433 -$8 From: Employment Security Commission of NC Trend. Comparison of 1990 census median housing values and 1997 sales cost of housing shows an increase of approximately 59% in the past seven years. During this time, average weekly wages have been stagnant, especially in Wilmington, with a slight decrease during the same time period. This should raise concerns of affordable housing for many of our citizens. t From: North Carolina Employment Security Commission in the Wilmington Star, 7/27197. VII-2 VIII. Affordable Housing Challenges The following table shows that in 1997, 21,679 families in the City and County could not afford more than a $78,529 home based on mortgage calculations (see Appendix tables A2 to A8 for details). This calculation includes families that own and do not own their homes. The number of families in the City and County in 1997 who could not afford more than a $78,529 home based on mortgage calculations. Location # of Families Inner City - Wilmington 5,226 Inner suburbs - Wilmington 5,213 Outer suburbs around Wilmington 6,705 Northern portion of County '• 2,344 Wrightsville Beach - Figure Eight Is. 295 South County Total 1.896 21,679 All of the 21,679 families listed in the above table have a household income of less than $25,000 per year (see Appendix tables A2-A8). An estimated 11,603 of these families own their homes, and an estimated 9,837 do not own their homes (tables A9-A10). It is not known how many families of the group that own their homes would want to move to a different home elsewhere in the County, for example, to be closer to employment, or to be in a different school district. However, it is likely that some would find a replacement home difficult given that their household income is not more than $25,000 per year and that the median sales price of housing was $120,000 in the County in 1997 (see page VII-2). The following table shows the number of families in the City and County that do not own a home, make less than $25,000 per year, and would prefer to rent. Assume that 15 percent (or 1,476), of the estimated 9,837 families who do not own a home, would prefer to rent. This calculation yields 8,361 families, based on the mortgage calculations in the Appendix (tables A2 to A8), who could not afford a home that cost more than $78,529. Rent preference: # of families who do not own a home and make less than $25,000 per year Total # who prefer to rent (assumed at 15%) Low income families who would like to own a home 9,837 1,476 8,361 The following table shows that 505 housing units were sold in 1997 that were less than $80,000 (for details see table Al 1).' Total number of homes in the County that sold for less than $80,000 in 1997. Single Condo Total Family Number of homes less than $80,000 286 219 505 1 Courtesy of the VALAR, Inc. VIII-1 • • • • Trend. Estimates are that there were approximately 8,300 County families in 1997 who could not afford housing that sold for more than $80,000. In 1997 there were only approximately 500 units of housing were available under the $80,000 price. This means that 7,800 families were effectively locked out of the housing market as there was an inadequate supply of affordable housing. There were an estimated 8,361 City and County families in 1997 who would have liked to purchase a home, but could not afford one that.cost more than $78,529. The number of homes that were available under $80,000 in 1997 was 505. The following table shows that in 1997 there were approximately 7,856 families in Wilmington and the County who could not afford any type of housing, and were thus effectively locked out of the housing market. A comparison was made with the number of families in the County who make less than $25,000 per year and who can't afford a home with the total number of County families. This comparison shows that approximately 13% of the families in the County could not afford a house in 1997. N- The number of families who make less than $25,000 per year, and were effectively locked out of the housing market in 1997. Estimated # of families Estimated # of families who would like to buy a home Available affordable homes who can't afford a home 8,361 505 7,856 The percent of families in the County, who make less than $25,000 per year, and who could not afford a house that cost more than $78,529, and do not own a home. Estimated # of families Estimated percent who can't afford a home Total # of County families who can't afford a house 7,656 59,109 13% Trend. An estimated 13% of families in the City and County in 1997 could not afford a house that cost more than $78,500. An extended trend shows that there will be an even larger number of families who can not afford to buy a home by 2010 unless affordable housing policy and construction is implemented. Furthermore, there were an additional 6,567 families in the City and County in the $25,000 to $50,000 income bracket who do not own a house (Appendix Table A9). It is likely that some of the families in this group would like to own a home, but are not buying because of unaffordable housing costs in relation to employment location, and school considerations. VIII-2 County Rental Increases 1990 - `98 Trend. In the 1990's, rents in the County have been increasing at 4% to 6% per year. During this same time period, weekly wages have been stagnant. Low and moderate income families are increasingly paying more of their income for housin Throughout the County and City, rent has increased as demand for housing exceeds supply. A study in December 1994, showed that annual rental increases have been approximately 4% to 6%.2 This general trend was also reinforced by the increases found in a local apartment complex from 1990 to 1998. During this general time frame, weekly wages in the County have been stagnant and have not increased. Low and moderate income families are increasingly paying more of their income for housing. Rental Increases at a Local Apartment Complex (1990 Vs adjusted for inflation to 1998 Vs) # of Bedrooms 1990 1998 1990-W % increase per year'90298 1 B R $339 $510 51 % 6% 2BR $407 $5M 40% 5°% 3BR $474 $690 45°% 6°% Data is from The Wilmington Apartment Association, Cypress Grove Apartments; 3 SR is estimated. 2 "1995 Community & Economic Development Plan," City of Wilmington, Community Development Div. p. 47 VIII-3 • r� J 00 • • IX. City -County Affordable and Rehabilitation Housing Programs Affordable housing and rehabilitation programs with the City and County are as follows. Wilmington and New Hanover County housing programs Home Ownership Pool Loan Program (HOP) Direct loans and Home loans for housing rehabilitation Rental rehab loans Fannie Mae Lease Purchase Program Project Home County Community Development Block Grant Program (CDBG) The following table is an estimate fot 1997 of the amount of new construction and renovated housing that occurred as a result of the above presented affordable housing programs. City and County: New Construction and Renovated Affordable Housing Estimates for 1997 Program Approx. # of new construction and rehabilitated homes Home Ownership Pool loan - WHFD, Inc. 18 Direct Loan and Home Loan 2 25 WHFD, Inc. for lease -purchase ] 10 Fannie Mae lease purchase ` 3 Project home 4 County Commun. Develop. Block Grant ° 6 Total 66 1. Average per year from 1991-97. 2. Average over last three years. 3. Includes lease purchase and Creekwood North. 4. In last four years 8 new homes and 2 renovations. 5. Includes 30 rehabilitated and 5 new construction homes from 1991-97. Trend. City and County.low.and moderate income affordable housing, with new construction and renovation; was approximately 66 homes in 1997. If this amount. is subtracted from the 7,856 families in 1997 who were locked out of the housing market, this still leaves approximately7,790 families in the City and County who were unable to afford a home. Home Ownership Pool Loan Program (HOP) HOP is a community development partnership that was created by the Wilmington Housing Finance and Development, Inc., local banks, and the City of Wilmington. The program is administered by the WHFD and targeted generally to persons with incomes less than 80% of the County median and to potential home buyers who are willing to purchase and rehabilitate homes. IX-1 This program provides financing for moderate income citizens for home purchases in areas shown in the following map. Funds are also lent for needed renovation to correct structural or minimum housing code problems and for housing construction. The participating bank lends 60%to 70% of the amount with the balance from the City as a second mortgage. As a result of the HOP program, from 1991 to 1996, 20 new homes were constructed, and 50 were rehabilitated. In 1997, the HOP program made 21 more loans for homes (Community Development Division). Trend. In the past three years, the Home Ownership Pool loan program has invested over $1 million for purchase and renovation of older homes for. moderate income families for approximately 20 homes. 'Z • u '00 i City of Wilmington 4 �7 Home Ownership Pool Areas Summary of Home Ownership Pool (HOP) Loan Program 1991-1996 (Fiscal Years) 1996-'97 FY Newly Constructed Homes Sold Rehabilitated Homes Existing Homes Sold Last years loans KX T IX-2 19 21 • • • • • Direct Loans and Home Loans for Housing Rehabilitation Trend. In the last three years, the City of Wilmington assisted 76 home owners renovate their homes with Direct and Home Loans for low to moderate income families. The City of Wilmington provides housing rehabilitation loans to low and moderate income homeowners using funds from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development. The Direct Loan Program provides loans for repairs and improvements not exceeding $30,000. Interest rates range from 0% to 4% for borrowers. The Home Loan Program allows for rehabilitation amounts up to $55,000. All home loans are interest free and are restricted to borrowers with incomes less than 80% of the New Hanover County median. A deed of trust secures both the direct and home loans. If the loan is not fully paid within twenty years, a balloon payment for the unpaid principal balance is due. In fiscal year `96297, the City made 27 loans to owner occupants with the Home and Direct Loan programs. Rental Rehab Loans The Rental Rehabilitation Loan Program offers an incentive to investors to renovate rental housing for lower -income families. Up to one-half the total renovation costs may be borrowed at rates as low as three percent. The maximum loan amount is $11,000 per unit with repayment amortized over a 15 year period. The low interest rates and long term for repayment make lower rents possible while allowing for a reasonable return on investment Wilmington Housing Finance and Development, Inc. The Wilmington Housing Finance and Development, Inc. (WHFD, Inc.) was created in 1988 to enhance the ability of the City and the Housing Authority to meet the housing needs of low and moderate income families.' The quasi -independent agency, with the City acts as an implementation program for affordable housing, assistance, rehabilitation, and historic preservation. In the last ten years the WE'D, Inc. has made $15.5 million dollars worth of loans for 405 housing units. Programs implemented and loan amounts for housing units are as follows. Trend. In the last ten years, the Wilmington Housing Finance and Development, Inc. has made $15.5 million dollars worth of loans for 405 housing units. ' From the "Annual Report" 1996-1997. Wilmington Housing Finance & Development, Inc. IX-3 Programs of the WHFD, Inc. implemented in the last 10 years Affordable multifamily housing - Apartments: Willow Pond, Kent Street, James A. Walker Housing rehabilitation - neighborhood revitalization - Home ownership pool - HOP - Lease - purchase program - Economic development - historic preservation New construction of affordable single family houses - Home building training Support and assistance of Housing Authority initiatives - Turnkey III houses - Youthbuild - Shelter plus care - Hopewood Apartments Home buyer's training programs - Seminars have been held to facilitate home ownership Accomplishments of the WHFD, Inc. Fiscal Year 1996-7 Program - project Units Loan amounts in Millions of $'s Home ownership pool 20 1.4 Creekwood North 8 .2 Purchase -lease -purchase 2 1 Total 30 1.7 Loan amounts for Housing units by the WHFD, Inc. Fiscal Years 1988-97 FY Housing Units Loan Amounts in Millions of $'s 1988-9 52 1.8 89-1990 67 2.3 90-1 33 1.0 91-2 36 1.1 923 35 1.3 93-4 39 1.8 94-5 81 2.8 95-6 32 1.5 96.7 30 1_7 Total 405 15.5 Fannie Mae Lease Purchase Program The Fannie Mae Lease Purchase Program is implemented by the Wilmington Housing Trend., The Fannie Mae Lease Purchase Program has a high demand, but currently is in need of grant support to continue. From 1993 to 1997, $150,000 in loans were provided for eight new homes and two renovated homes. Finance and Development (WHYD) Agency. This program was established to help improve housing conditions and to provide home -ownership opportunities for low and moderate income families of Wilmington and the County. Families who live in public housing and have a gross annual income of at least $19,000 are targeted by WHFD to participate in the program. Through the program a house is leased for five years. This provides the opportunity for the family to save for the down payment, closing costs, and to clear credit problems. The City of Wilmington provided WHFD with a $75,000 grant and the North Carolina Housing Finance Agency (NCHFA) also provided a $75,000 grant to assist in the funding of this I m • —� program. The funds provided by the City and the NCHFA have been used for low interest • amortized loans or deferred loans depending on the participant's income. WHFD has completed ten loans under this program in the last four years. There is a huge demand for lease -purchase houses and requests for this type housing, not only in the City, but in the unincorporated New Hanover County. Project Home Trend. Since Project Home began, four houses have been constructed and sold in 1998 for low and moderate income families. The agency that oversees the project proposes to expand their housing construction program into the unincorporated County. Project Home was established by eight local banks, the Wilmington - New Hanover Community Development Corporation (CDC) and the North Carolina Housing Finance Agency to address the affordable home ownership needs of low and moderate income families. The maximum income limit for eligibility for Project Home is 80 percent of the median income for New Hanover County depending on family size. To overcome some of the challenges to home ownership, the CDC sponsors a Home Buyers Club. The objective of the Club is to help families understand the process of purchasing a home and to establish savings goals to qualify for home ownership. The Home Buyers Club also provides a support system for the potential home buyer. To assist the potential homeowner with financing, a local bank provides a first mortgage for 75% of the financing and the NCHFA through the CDC provides a second mortgage for 25% of the financing. Since Project Home began, four houses _have been constructed and sold. The CDC proposes to expand their housing construction program out into the unincorporated County in 1998. County Community Development Block Grant Program The primary purpose of the County CDBG Program is to provide financial assistance to local governments in the development of viable communities by providing decent housing and a suitable living environment and expanding economic opportunities, especially for persons of low and moderate incomes. Trend. The County has used Community Development Block Grant money to rehabilitate more than 30 homes, constructed five :...: homes, and provided six manufactured homes for low and moderate income families, and made County sewer and drainage`-, improvements. The unincorporated County along with the beaches, have been designated to receive funds competitively under the North Carolina Small Cities CDBG program. Under this program, the unincorporated County successfully rehabilitated more than 30 houses, and constructed five houses _ for low and moderate income households from 1991 to 1997. There has also been construction of County sewer and drainage improvements. The County has provided assistance for two private industries with expansions that resulted in the creation of approximately 75 jobs for low and moderate income persons. Housing Authority of Wilmington The Housing Authority of Wilmington owns and manages public housing developments which provide safe and sanitary housing for low and moderate income families. Rent is based on Trend. The Housing Authority of Wilmington has plans to build approximately 125 singli family and multi -family housing units at Jervay Place, with additional community amenities and commercial uses. There are additional plans to build approximately 100 single family homes on scattered sites throughout the City. income and family composition at the rate of 30 percent of adjusted family income. Approximately 3,024 people live in the conventional public housing units. In Housing Authority of Wilmington addition, there are 2,063 Name/Location Units Age Years Condition Recreational Facilities people residing in the Nesbitt Courts' 261 59 Renov. Yes Section 8 housing units 1404 S. 2nd St. 1997_1998 administered by the Taylor Homes' 276 60 Renov. Yes Housing Authority. The 1302 N. 5th Ave. 1997 Housing Authority Jervay Place*. • 125 48 To be Yes 902 Dawson St. Demolished thus serves a total of Houston Moore 150 45 Renov. Yes approximately 6,224 1601 S.13th St. 1998 people. Funding for the Hillcrest' 256' 57 Renov. Yes Housing Authority 1402 Meares St. 1997 results from rent Solomon Towers 151 25 Renov. 1997 Yes charged to residents and 15 castle St. Creekwood South 199 25 (Handicapped) Renov. Yes from a subsidy from the 714 Emory St. 1998 U.S. Department of Rankin Terrace 80 25 Renov. Yes Housing and Urban 410 N. 11th St. 1958 Development. Vesta Village 43 25 Renov. Yes 1601 S.13th St. 1997 Creekwood North— 19 26 Yes 1210 KornegayAve. *Location of additional 20-ye2r-old buildings which are classified as an "Elderly Annex". These units are included in the overall total. "Approximately 100 units of housing will be developed on the site. This is still in the planning stage. "'"Orginally consisting of 200 units: 181 units have been sold (as of 2/1198) as part of a Homeownership Development program. IX-6 Private Sector / Affordable Housing Program - Habitat for Humanity Trend. A private sector, non-profit, affordable housing program provides a valuable service to the County and City. If the number of families who would like to own a home but can not afford one is to be reduced, programs such as Habitat for Humanity will need more public and private support. From 1990 to 1998, 27 homes have been built in Wilmington and the County by Habitat for Humanity. In 1995, four homes were renovated by Habitat. During 1996, Habitat for Humanity did not build new homes because the hurricanes. Habitat for Humanity estimates that they will complete six to seven homes during 1998 and 1999. The first home built in 1998 was sponsored by the local Target store. The Rotary Club plans to sponsor a second home. Amount of Habitat for Humanity Homes Constructed 1990 '91 '92 W '94 '95 '96 W W Total 1 1 4 3 2 8 0 7 1 27 IX-7 X. University of North Carolina - Wilmington, Housing. i The University of North Carolina at Wilmington is an integral part of the economy and fabric of the City and County. In the spring semester of 1998, there were approximately 9,100 undergraduate students at UNCW, with 25% of those students living on campus, and 75%living Trend. Jtstimafes for 1997-to 2010 are that between 500 to 1000 of off -campus housing units will need to be constructed to accommodate the increased number.of students at UNCW. off campus. Estimates provided by the University are that by 2010 the size of the school will be 11,800 students. Projections to 2010 indicate that an additional 500 to 1,000 units of off campus housing will need to be constructed to accommodate campus growth. UNCW Housing Projections Estimated needed off campus housing units by 2010 1998 2010 W10 2 students per 3 students per 4 students per Increase dwelling dwelling dwelling # of students 9,100 11,800 2,700 Students living on campus 2,275 2,950 675 Students Irving off campus 6,825 8,850 2,025 1,013 675 506 Information from: UNCW • • X-1 • XI. Household mobility -1997 Trend. A large number of household turnover was found to occur in the vicinity of UNCW due to the relatively mobile student population. Two areas were found to have very . low turnover, one area is located downtown and the other area is in the north part of the City. Two areas were found to have a lesser amount of turnover than the rest of the City and County. Both are within the City one is north of Market and the other is downtown. 'Three areas were found to have a high turnover and are adjacent to UNCW. All other areas had a medium amount of turnover (from CPA 1997). 116.01 114 '• / 103 117.01 101 105.01• \•.� \ _ - 112 102.E ' ✓ w . 111 A ' �104 113 110 105.02 •� 119.02 � / t 109 / \ '7 ., 120.01 107y- f i �f •, ,, r 108�— ' 120.03 , i 1 1 / 120.02+ 1997 Household tumover Low „ Area 8cundary Map Medium gi , n,N,w Nana Caunty _Wil High i �— c_-,a,a, C:ri Cf WRn ma. GIs City -County Mobility 1997 Turnover ratio Census Tract Newcomers (% of Exodus (% of (newcomers! census tract) census tract) exodus) Low Turnover N. of Market, see map 103 2% 2% 0.04 Downtown Wilmington 112 4% 2% 0.04 Medium Turnover Rest of City -County All tracts except above and below 2%-40,6 5%-6% .06-.07 High Turnover Adj. to UNCW 105.1 5% 7% 0.11 Adj. to UNCW 119.01 5% 5% 0.07 Triangle: Market- Eastwd-Military Cutoff 117.01 2% 8% 0.10 Note: tract 119.01 was included in the high turnover category as both newcomers and exodus indicators at 5% exceeded the average. Kim XII. Owner Occupied Housing -1990 Trend. Owner occupancy of housing in 1990 was found to increase from the inner City at. 38%, to the inner suburbs at 49%, and to the outer Suburbs at 67%. This trend correlated with an increase of household income. Wilmington and Suburbs Owner Occupancy The adjacent map and following graph show the percentage of owner occupied housing in Wilmington and the County in 1990 (CPA 1997). Generally, the map and graph show the trend towards greater owner occupancy from the inner City at 38%, to the inner suburbs at 49%, and to outer suburbs at 67%. Inspection of census tract median household income shows that the higher the income the higher owner occupancy! Wilmington and Adjacent Unincorporated County Housing - Owner Occupancy (%) 1990 9080 I ---i I 70 r 83 j a 50 o u40I e 30 20 10 llnner City Avg. 38% Inner Suburbs Avg. 49°� i ! H-1 Outer Suburbs Avg. 670A 0 1Z Of Of N N N N Censua Tracts O Effect of UNCW students J t Note: In a clockwise manner as shown on the map Census tracts 116.01, 119.01, 119.02, 120.01, 120.02, 120.03, and 121.01 are located in the City and unincorporated County. • i • • Northern and Southern Portions of the County, Owner Occupancy Trend. The beach towns show a low occupancy rate of approximately 54% due to seasonal habitation, compared with .the northern and southern portions of the County occupancy of approx- imately 82%, and the outer suburbs of Wilmington at.67%. The graph to the right shows the percentage of owner occupied housing in the north and south County, and the beach towns. The location of these tracts are shown on the map on page VI-3. The three northern tracts and one southern tract show a uniform owner occupancy with an average of 82% to 83%. The two beach town tracts have,,a lower owner occupancy of 53% to 54%, due to the large amount of rental and seasonal housing for tourists. Northern & Southern N.H. County, Wrightsville Beach & Fig. Eight Is. % Housing - Owner Occupancy (011 1990 90 80 a 70 �60 �a 50 u o 20 10 0 Census Tracts 115 MI-2 116.02 117.02 118 121.02 122 Xlll. Demolition and Code Compliance The following table shows that from 1993 to 1997 the City: demolished between 2 and 11 houses a year; and brought into compliance between 8 and 25 housing units a year. Demolition and Code Compliance in Wilmington 1993 to 1997 Activity 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 Total Average per year Demolition 10 11 7 2 10 40 8 Code Compliance 18 21 8 8 25 So 16 From: Community Develcpment Civisicn. Citt cf Wilmington Trend. From 1993 to 1997 the City demolished on average eight houses per year that were unfit for habitation. Since 1992 in partnership between the City and WHFD, Inc. 21 new affordable homes have been built on the demolition sites._. Houses are demolished after an Order of Condemnation has been issued. The structure may be deemed unfit for human habitation, or the house is judged to be in a dilapidated condition, and unsalvageable historically, or structurally. Since 1992 the WHFD, Inc. with the City, have built 21 new affordable homes on vacant lots. These lots previously had condemned houses that were demolished. Code enforcement has brought units into compliance with the minimum housing code. XIII-1 • • XIV. Historic Preservation - Economic and Housing Trends The economic impact of Historic Preservation of housing and buildings in Wilmington is signifmgie shows the location of the historic districts in the City of Wilmington. Some of the key highlights of historic preservation are as follows. Trend. Since 1976 approximately 100 projects, including historic residential and commercial buildings, have been renovated through federal and state tax credit programs. This has involved over $19.3 million dollars for construction costs. This rehabilitation has directly contributed to the revitalization of downtown Wilminaton. Downtown Revitalization. The Federal Historic Preservation investment tax credit program which started in 1976 had enormous impact on the revitalization of Wilmington's downtown .. neighborhoods. It increased the tax base, and loan demand spurred economic growth and enhanced property values. Since 1976, 101 projects to the sum of Sim)66,868 were completed through federal and state tax credit programs. • Stabilizing Neighborhoods and Affordable Housing Challenges. The residential areas of Wilmington's historic districts have a variety of housing in size, quality, price and configuration, that accominodate families from many income brackets. Rehabilitation has spurred additional rehabilitation. The designation of Historic District zoning generally controls the size, quality and scale of new construction, restricts demolition and protects the character and quality of the area. • !Trend. The recent renovation to many properties in the historic downtown area has led to increased property and housing values. The rebounding downtown is pushing up tax values and forcing out some of the poorer residents. This poses the challenge of j retaining affordable housing for some of the existing residents. However, recent trends are that property and housing values in Wilmington's historic district and downtown have dramatically increased. For example, County tax values for two story wood -frame houses on Second Street were valued at $28,500. Within a couple of blocks new three- story brick townhouses are being constructed with asking prices of $264,900 to S294,400. The rebounding downtown and parts of the historic district is pushing up tax values and forcing out some of the poorer residents.' A challenge will be to find a way to retain existing affordable housing and constnlct new affordable housing. ' The Wihnington Star Newspaper. Feb. S. 1998. "Drnmtown rebound pushes new huusing to fringe sites." by P. Hervey. XI V-1 I H -6, Dkvirl O.erlar Rnidenbal Carolina Heigh, r 6rilecoe ceme�em. �_ Pme funrt nq'�---7Fr oak.lale Cemrrrry L r l ' I I Hiatorie D�stricl O•erla. Raid<nlia! i�a1��a1 a1 a1 al��a1■ City of Wilmington HISTORIC DISTRICTS N.Ii-A Rniarer Himrir Disrrin Carolina Plue LECL1O Hicar:r DDuw �� Nusne ifria-loNn�ial ■t• Nbor:r Oirnu O..n.r.lddao.l . Xiarie DiY.ia O`^b/ • Ce. w was mq6— I] • • XI Y —? Building Economics. Historic Preservation is cheaper than new construction. The renovation costs on average are one half the cost of comparable new construction.Z Value to the Community. A large percentage of rehabilitation projects require a substantial amount of labor which provides local employment. The money earned from these jobs increases the local cash flow for goods and services. Trend. Wilmington has become an active tourist center because of its. historic houses and associated cultural resources. Heritage tourists spend on average $62 more per day than other tourists. This is an important economic infusion of money into .. i the local economy. Heritage Tourism. Tourists come to Wilmington because of its historic houses, buildings, museums, and other cultural resources. They often stay at bed and breakfast inns. Wilmington has 32 bed and breakfast inns and all are located in historic houses. Heritage tourists spend an average of $62 or more per day than other tourists. Ninety percent come with their family, 55 % spend nights away from home, and 84% will come to visit the site again. Film Industry. Wilmington is a major center of the film industry's growth and development because of its urban location, variety of period buildings, and unbroken streetscapes. This industry • generates twenty million dollars a year and contributes to the local economy through historic preservation. In 1997, forty five movies were shot in Wilmington including commercials, TV mini- series, and feature films. r` Historic Districts. Wilmington has five locally designated historic districts and three districts listed on the National Register of Historic Places, as shown in the map. Properties in the National Register District are eligible for federal and state tax credit programs. Tax Credits. Unlike new construction, the state and federal governments allow a 40 %tax credit to rehabilitated, income producing, historic properties. Since 1989, the state has allowed a 30%tax credit for rehabilitation of owner occupied personal residences. • Summary of Historic Property and Residences in Wilmington Properties in the National Register District: 3,098 Owner occupied residences: 945 Historic Preservation Plans for 1998 There are plans to update the design guidelines for the historic districts. There is a proposed expansion of local historic districts, which would add 493 buildings. A survey is underway, of the Carolina Heights - Winoca Terrace district, for listing on the National Register of Historic Places. Future goals might include expanding the historic district to preserve additional historic housing, the creation of conservation districts, and promotion of heritage tourism through self -guided walking tours. 2 .,The Economics of Historic Preservation". by: D. Rypkema, 1996. MV-3 Appendix North Carolina Coastal Area Management Act; Mandated Planning Requirements This housing economy report is one of the technical reports for the Wilmington -New Hanover Comprehensive Plan 1997-2010, and the Coastal Area Management Act (CAMA) Land Use Plan. In 1974 the North Carolina General Assembly required that 20 coastal counties of the state prepare land use plans. This plan provides a framework to guide local leaders with protection, preservation, orderly development and management of the North Carolina coastal area. Updates to the plan are required in five year intervals. In accordance with CAMA requirements, the land use plan consists of the following elements: summary of data collection and analysis; existing land use map; policy discussion; and a land classification map. This information serves an important role with local development regulations, such as zoning ordinances, and it provides input for growth policy decisions. Housing Calculations The data was collected in the field July -November 1997 by the Wilmington Planning Division and the New Hanover County Planning Department. Projections were calculated by the two planning departments based on recent trends, housing starts, and the N.C. Office of State Planning demographic trends. Housing calculations in the unincorporated County south of Snows Cut is an estimate, based on the ratio of population to housing found in the non -urban County. Table Al. Housing Projections 1997-2010 Location & 1997210 Avg. # units/ yr Map Reference Housing Type 1997 % 2010 % New Units growth Wilmington W SF and mobile homes 15154 54% 17299 54% 2145 165 Duplex 2008 70/6 2286 7% 278 21 SF attached -condo & Apts. 3+ units 11111 39% 12660 39% 1549 119 28273 100% 32245 100% 3972 306 Urbanizing County U SF and mobile homes 22677 90% 27832 84% 5155 397 Duplex 760 3% 1160 4% 400 31 SF attached -condo & Apts. 3+ units 1625 6% 4019 12% 2394 184 25062 100% 33011 100% 7949 611 Non -Urban County NU SF and mobile homes 7246 96% 8042 95% 796 61 Duplex 217 3% 245 3% 28 2 SF attached -condo & Apts. 3+ units 96 1 % 198 2% 102 8 7559 100% 8485 100% 926 71 South of Snows Cut Unincorporated SF and mobile homes 527 96% 569 95% 42 3 County Duplex 16 3% 18 3% 2 0.2 SF attached -condo & Apts. 3+ units 7 11 % 12 2% 5 0_4 550 100% 599 100% 49 4 Totals Wilmington 28273 32245 3972 306 Unincorporated County 33171 42095 8924 686 Total 61444 74340 12896 992 A-1 • • Housing Affordability in New Hanover County Calculations were made of housing affordablity for 1997 by Census Tract for the City and the County. Table A2 shows the housing price range that families or households could afford in 1997 given the stated mortgage assumptions. From the data household income was known for each tract in the County. Gross monthly income was calculated for each of the household income ranges. This allowed the calculation of monthly mortgage amounts, and hence affordable housing range, for each of the income ranges.' For example, if a household made between $25,000 to $50,000 per year the range of housing that they could afford was between $78,529 and $156,992. The monthly mortgage payments would range from $687 to $1,375. The available census data is not refined beyond the shown ranges, but an assessment of affordable housing in the County could be made. Table A2. The monthly mortgage and house price households could afford In Wilmington - New Hanover County in 1997. Assumptions 3% down. Loan interest rate 7.5% House payments as percent of monthly income: 33%. Or total debt doesn't exceed 38% of gross income. Taxes and insurance as percent of house price: 1.5%. Mortgage insurance as percent of original loan: 0.91 %A Fixed rate loan, term in years: 30 years. Category $Ranges 1997 Estimated Household Income $ <9999 10000-44999 25000-49999 50000-74999 >75000 Gross monthly income range $ <833 833-2083 2083-4167 4167-6250 >6250 Maximum monthly house payment range $ <275 275-687 687-1375 1375-2063 >2063 Maximum house range in $ that households can afford. <31342 31342-78529 78529-156992 156992-235500 >235500 The next step was to determine how many families in 1997 could afford the range of housing costs by census tract. The income distribution by tract was known. The mortgage ranges were known. Thus the number of families and how much housing they could afford by tract were known for 1997. To facilitate data analysis, the census tracts were grouped together by proximity • ' Mortgage methods are from: Community Development Division, City of Wilmington, "The GE community home buyer's program. Affording a home in the 90's", by GE Capital Mortgage Corporation, Raleigh NC. Household income by census tract from: CPA, 1997. A-2 moving out from the City core to the outer portions of the County. The map location of the census tracts and groupings are shown on pages VI-2 and VI-3 of the text. Census Tract Groupings 1. Wilmington inner City 2. Wilmington inner suburbs 3. Outer suburbs around Wilmington 4. Northern portion of County 5. Wrightsville Beach - Figure Eight Is. 6. Southern portion of County Inspection of the data on the following pages in tables A3 to A8 showed that there was a significant number of families, who could not afford a home with a sales price greater than $31,342. Similarly, there were many families who could not purchase a home that cost more than $78,529. For example, in Hemenway census -tract 101, there were 1,121 families (Table A3 -B). Of this amount 32% of the families could not afford a home that would exceed $31,342, and 39% could not afford a home that would exceed $78,529 (Table A3 -A). The sum of 32% and 39% is 7 1 % (Table A3 -B). Thus 71%times 1,121 yields 796 families in Census tract 101 who could not afford a home that exceeded $78,529 in 1997. This data analysis was repeated for all six census tract groupings (listed above) with the following detailed results (tables A3 to A8). Table A3. Wilmington - Inner City A. The percent distribution of households in a census tract that could afford the range of home costs in 1997. Percent distribution of households who can afford stated housing cost Places in Census Tract Census <$31342 $31343- $78530- $156993- >$235501 tract $78529 $156992 $235500 Hemenway 101 32% 39% 23°% 3% 3°% Carolina Heights - Wrightsville Av. 102 17°% 31 % 31 % 12% 9% South Dry Pond 110 25% 40% 26% 8% 1 °% North Dry Pond 111 47% 38% 15% 0°% 0°% The Bottom 112 22% 34% 23% 130% 8°% Old Wilmington -Downtown 113 38% 34% 14% 3°% 11 °% Brooklyn 114 41 % 34°% 17% 6% 2°% B. The percent and number of households in a census tract that could not afford a home that cost more than $78,629 In 1997. Places in Census Tract Census In Percent Total 9 of households in No. of households who couldn't tract M Census tract afford a >$78529 home Hemenway 101 71% 1121 796 Carolina Heights - Wrightsville Av. 102 48°% 1667 800 South Dry Pond 110 65% 1157 752 North Dry Pond 111 85°% 1138 967 The Bottom 112 560% 1034 579 Old Wilmington -Downtown 113 72% 1045 752 Brooklyn 114 75% 772 579 Total# of households 7934 6226 A-3 i' • • ' Table A4. i Wilmington - Inner Suburbs A. The percent distribution of households in a census tract that could afford the range of home costs in 1997. Percent distribution of households who can afford stated housing cost Places in Census Tract Census tract <$31342 $31343- $78530- $156993- >$235501 $78529 $156992 $235500 East Wilmington 103 21 % 29% 38% 8% 4% Forest Hills 104 12% 23% 27% 18% 20% Empie Park 105.02 15% 28% 39% 14% 4% Country Club - Lincoln Forest 106 5% 21 % 24% 21 % 29% Greenfield 107 11 % 26% 43% 18% 2% Long Leaf Park - JC Rowe E.S. 108 33% 36% 21 % 9% 1 % Sunset Park 109 16% 41 % 35% 7% 1 % B. The percent and number of households in a census tract that could not afford a home that cost more than $78,629 In 1997. Places in Census Tract Census tract In Percent (%) Total # of households in No. of households who couldn't Census tract afford a >$78529 home East Wilmington 103 50% 1831 916 Forest Hills 104 35% 1366 478 -^� Empie Park 105.02 43% 2636 1133 Country Club - Lincoln Forest 106 26% 1905 495 Greenfield 107 37% 1952 722 Long Leaf Park -JC Rowe E.S. 106 69% 1192 822 Sunset Park 109 57% 1134 646 Total # of households 12016 6212 • Table A5. Outer Suburbs Lying in Wilmington - Unincorporated County A. The percent distribution of households in a census tract that could afford the range of home costs in 1997. Percent distribution of households who can afford stated housing cost Places in Census Tract Census tract <$31342 $31343- $78530- $156993- >$235501 $78529 $156992 $235500 Triangle: Kerr -College -Market 105.01 28% 39% 24% 5% 4% Area: Kerr -Gordon -Market 116.01 6% 190/0 37% 27% 11 % Triangle: Market -Eastwood -Military Cutoff 117.01 8% 15% 27% 30% 20% UNCW Duck Haven Golf Course 119.01 18% 22% 29% 17% 14% Winter Park Elementary School 119.02 17% 37% 30% 11 % 5% Greenville Loop Road 120.01 6% 16% 34% 18% 26% Masonboro Sound Road 120.02 3% 10% 28% 27% 32% Pine Valley 120.03 4% 17% 29% 26% 24% Echo Farms -Mary Williams E.S. 121.01 5% 18% 38% 23% 16% A-4 B. The percent and number of households in a census tract that could not afford a home that cost more than $78,529 In 1997. Places in Census Tract Census tract In Percent (%) Total # of households in No. of households who couldn't Census tract afford a >578529 home Triangle: Kerr -College -Market 105.01 67% 1779 1192 Area: Kerr -Gordon -Market 116.01 25% 2524 631 Triangle:Market-Eastwood-Military Cutoff 117.01 40% 1407 563 UNCW-Duck Haven Golf Course 119.01 40% 2717 1087 Winter Park Elementary School 119.02 54% 2111 1140 Greenville Loop Road 120.01 22% 2269 499 Masonboro Sound Road 120.02 13% 3955 514 Pine Valley 120.03 21 % 2849 %8 Echo Farms -Mary Williams E.S. 121.01 23% 2092 481 Total # of households 21703 6705 Table A6. Northern Portion of County A. The percent distribution of households in a census tract that could afford the range of home costs In 1997. Percent distribution of households who can afford stated housing cost Places in Census Tract Census tract <$31342 $31343- $78530- $156993- >$235501 $78529 $156992 $235500 Wrightsboro-Castle Hayne 115 5% 21 % 38% 25% 11 % Wrightsboro-Castle Hayne 116.02 8°% 24% 32% 28°% 8% Landfall - Ogden - Porters Neck 117.02 3% 11 % 25% 30 % 31 °% B. The percent and number of households in a census tract that could not afford • a home that cost more than $78,629 in 1997. Places in Census Tract Census tract In Percent (%) Total # of households in No. of households who couldn't Census tract afford a >$78529 home Wrightsboro-Castle Hare 115 26% 2442 635 Wrightsboro-Castle Hayne 116.02 32°% 3917 1253 Landfall - Ogden - Porters Neck 117.02 14°% 3254 456 Total # of households 9613 2344 Table A7. Wrightsville Beach - Figure Eight Island A. The percent distribution of households in a census tract that could afford the range of home costs in 1997. Percent distribution of households who can afford stated housing cost Places in Census Tract Census tract <$31342 $31343- $78530- $156993- >$235501 $78529 $156992 $235500 Wrightsville Beach - Figure Eight Island 118 7°% 15% 32% 200% 26% • A-5 -, B. The percent and number of households in a census tract that could not afford ' a home that cost more than $78,629 in 1997. Places in Census Tract Census tract In Percent (%) Total # of households in No. of households who couldn't Census tract afford a >$78529 home Wrightsville Beach - Figure Eight Island 118 220% 1339 295 Total # of households 1339 295 Table A8. Southern Portion of County A. The percent distribution of households In a census tract that could afford the range of home costs in 1997. Percent distribution of households who can afford stated housing cost Places in Census Tract Census <$31342 $31343- $78530- $156993- >$235501 tract $78529 $156992 $235500 Myrtle Grove-MonereyHeights Park 121.02 8% 19% 32% 21 % 20% S. of Snows Cut Unincorp. Co. - Kure & Carolina Beach 122 9% 23% 35% 17% 16% B. The percent and number of households in a census tract that could not afford a home that cost more than $78,629 in 1997. Places in Census Tract Census In Percent (%) Total # of households in No. of households who tract Census tract couldn't afford a >$78529 home Myrtle Grove-MonereyHeights Park 121.02 27% 3705 1000 S. of Snows Cut Unincorp. Co. - Kure & Carolina Beach 122 32% 2799 896 0 Total # of households 6504 1896 County -City Home Ownership Estimates Home ownership amounts were estimated for the City and County (tables A9-A10). The following is an example of how an estimate was made of the number of families per income bracket that do not own their own homes using census tract 101 in table A9. Calculation example for census tract 101. Number of families who do not own their home = 1 - 46% = 54%. Applying the 54% uniformly across the 1,121 households leads to the following: For the $0 to $9.9 thousand income bracket, 1,121 hh x 32% x 54% = 194 households. For the $10 to $24.9 thousand income bracket, 1,121 hh x 39% x 54% = 236 • households. A-6 This method was repeated for the remaining income brackets of. $25k - $49.9k, $50k - � $74.9k, and $75k+; and other census tracts. These calculations should only n a be used igeneral • way in discussion with affordable housing challenges. The owner occupancy was applied evenly for each income bracket. It is likely that the lower income brackets of less than $25 thousand have an even higher non -home ownership that what is shown. This is thought to be the case as owner occupancy decreases as income decreases. Conversely, the amount of non -home ownership shown in the higher income brackets of above $50 thousand is likely less than what is shown. The same type of methods were used for table A10. Table A9. New Hanover County Estimated'Number of Families That Do Not Own Their Home Data from: CPA. Inc. 1997 with US Census 1997 Estimated 1997 Estimated: HH distribution of Summary of families Household Income in $1,000's Owner # of families who do not own who do not own 1997 # % Distribution Occu- their home their home Census of House- 10• 25- 50- 75 & pancy 25- 50- 75 & tract holds 0-9.9 24.9 49.9 74.9 over 1990 (%) 0-9.9 10-24.9 49.9 74.9 over 0 to 24.9 0 to 75+ 101 1,121 32 39 23 3 3 46 194 236 139 18 18 430 605 102 1,667 17 31 31 12 9 57 122 222 222 86 65 344 717 103 1,831 21 29 38 8 4 58 161 223 292 62 31 385 769 104 1,366 12 23 27 18 20 61 64 123 144 96 107 186 533 105.01 1,779 28 39 24 5 4 15 423 590 363 76 60 1013 1512 105.02 2,636 15 28 39 14 4 37 249 465 648 232 66 714 1661 106 1.905 5 21 24 21 29 72 27 112 128 112 155 139 533 107 1,952 11 26 43 18 2 21 170 401 663 278 31 571 1542 108 1,192 33 36 21 9 1 31 271 296 173 74 8 568 822 109 1,134 16 41 35 7 1 60 73 186 159 32 5 259 454 110 1,157 25 40 26 8 1 30 202 324 211 65 8 526 810 111 1,138 47 38 15 0 0 35 348 281 111 0 0 629 740 112 1,034 22 34 23 13 8 47 121 186 126 71 44 307 548 113 1,045 38 34 14 3 11 22 310 277 114 24 90 537 815 114 772 41 34 17 6 2 31 218 181 91 32 11 400 533 115 2,442 5 21 38 25 11 81 23 97 176 116 51 121 464 116.01 2,524 6 19 37 27 11 77 35 110 215 157 64 145 581 116.02 3.917 8 24 32 28 8 84 50 150 201 175 50 201 627 117.01 1,407 8 15 27 30 20 88 14 25 46 51 34 39 169 117.02 3,254 3 11 25 30 31 82 18 64 146 176 182 82 586 118 1.339 7 15 32 20 26 53 44 94 201 126 164 138 629 119.01 2,717 18 22 29 17 14 51 240 293 386 226 186 533 1331 119.02 2,111 17 37 30 11 5 55 161 351 285 104 47 513 950 120.01 2,269 6 16 34 18 26 83 23 62 131 69 100 85 386 120.02 3,955 3 10 28 27 32 89 13 44 122 117 139 57 435 120.03 2,849 4 17 29 26 24 69 35 150 256 230 212 185 883 121.01 2,092 5 18 38 23 16 79 22 79 167 101 70 101 439 121.02 3,705 8 19 32 21 20 83 50 120 202 132 126 170 630 122 2,799 9 23 35 17 16 54 116 296 451 219 206 412 1288 Total 3797 6040 6567 3257 2329 9837 21991 • • A-7 .i Table Al 0. New Hanover County Estimated Number of Families That Own Their Home Data from: CPA, Inc. 1997 with US Census 1997 Estimated 1997 Estimated: HH distribution of Summary of families Household Income in $1,000's Owner # of families who own who own 1997 # % Distribution Occu- their home their home Census of House- 10- 25- 50- 75 & pancy 25- 50• 75 & tract holds 0-9.9 24.9 49.9 74.9 over 1990 (%) 0-9.9 10-24.9 49.9 74.9 over 0 to 24.9 0 to 75+ 101 1,121 32 39 23 3 3 46 165 201 119 15 15 366 516 102 1,667 17 31 31 12 9 57 162 295 295 114 86 456 950 103 1,831 21 29 38 8 4 58 223 308 404 85 42 531 1062 104 1,366 12 23 27 18 20 61 100 192 225 150 167 292 833 105.01 1,779 28 39 24 5 4 15 75 104 64 13 11 179 267 105.02 2,636 15 28 39 14 4 37 146 273 380 137 39 419 975 106 1,905 5 21 24 21 29 72 69 288 329 288 398 357 1372 107 1,952 11 26 43 18 Y 21 45 10i 176 74 8 152 410 108 1,192 33 36 21 9 1 31 122 133 78 33 4 255 370 109 1,134 16 41 35 7 1 60 109 279 238 48 7 388 680 110 1,157 25 40 26 8 1 30 87 139 90 28 3 226 347 111 1,138 47 38 15 0 0 35 187 151 60 0 0 339 393 • 112 1,034 22 34 23 13 8 47 107 165 112 63 39 272 486 113 1,045 38 34 14 3 11 22 87 78 32 7 25 166 230 114 772 41 34 17 6. 2 31 98 81 41 14 5 179 239 115 2,442 5 21 38 25 11 81 99 415 752 495 218 514 1978 116.01 2,524 6 19 37 27 11 77 117 369 719 525 214 486 1943 116.02 3,917 8 24 32 28 8 84 263 790 1053 921 263 1053 3290 117.01 1,407 8 15 27 30 20 88 99 186 334 371 248 285 1238 117.02 3,254 3 11 25 30 31 82 80 294 667 800 827 374 26W 118 1,339 7 15 32 20 26 53 50 106 227 142 185 156 710 119.01 2,717 18 22 29 17 14 51 249 305 402 236 194 554 1386 119.02 2,111 17 37 30 11 5 55 197 430 348 128 58 627 1161 120.01 2,269 6 16 34 18 26 83 113 301 640 339 490 414 1883 120.02 3,955 3 10 28 27 32 89 106 352 986 950 1126 458 3520 120.03 2,849 4 17 29 26 24 69 79 334 570 511 472 413 1966 121.01 2,092 5 18 38 23 16 79 83 297 628 380 264 380 1653 121.02 3,705 S 19 32 21 20 83 246 584' 984 646 615 830 3075 122 2.799 9 23 35 17 16 54 136 348 529 257 242 484 1511 Total 3698 7905 11481 7770 6264 11603 37118 • A-8 County Real Estate Housing Count <$80,000 in 1997 The following table A -I I shows the breakdown by real estate map area in the County0 (page VII-1) the total number of homes that sold for less than $80 000 in 1997 as summarized on page VIII-1. Table Al 1. Number of housing units sold in 1997 under $70,000. Location Map area Single family Condo North east County 1 7 37 South east County 2 12 14 South west County 3 99 41 North west County 4 36 9 Wrightsville Beach - Figure Eight is. 5 0 4 South of Snows Cut 6 ' 18 39 172 144 Number of housing units sold in 1997 from $70,000 to $20,000. Location Map area Single family Condo North east County 1 11 7 South east County 2 9 1 South west County 3 56 52 North west County 4 28 2 Wrightsville Beach - Figure Eight Is. 5 0 0 South of Snows Cut 6 10 13 114 75 Total number of housing units sold in 1997 for less than $80,000. Map area Single family Condo Number of homes <$80,000 286 219 505 • A-9 • • m 0 0 0 • Technical Reports Wilmington New Hanover County Comprehensive Flan Economy of New Hanover County and Wilmington, North Carolina A Technical Report for the City and County Comprehensive Plan 1997-2010 October 1998 Prepared by the City of Wilmington, Planning Division 202 N. 3rd Street, 4`' Floor, Wilmington, NC 28401 (910) 341-3258 New Hanover County, Planning Department 414 Chestnut Street, Suite 304, Wilmington, NC 28401 (910) 341-7165 is Economy New Hanover County - Wilmington, North Carolina Table of Contents I. Introduction 11. Summary Ill. Employment Indicators ; IV. County and U.S. Economic Comparison V. Additional Economic Factors VI. Unemployment VII. Employment Projections iR. References A. Appendix page I-1 II-1 III-1 IV-1 V-1 VI-1 VII-1 R-1 A-1 ii I. INTRODUCTION This document is part of the New Hanover County and City of Wilmington Comprehensive Plan effort, begun in 1997 to update to the 1991 Land Use Plan.'"' This report is being used with the Comprehensive planning process help to guide public issues, policy, and implementation actions. The main purpose of this report is to evaluate the economic condition of New Hanover County and Wilmington by examining the factors that affect it, such as: changes in employment job types; a comparison with the US economy; cost of living; wages; impact of the movie industry; travel and tourism expenditures; the state port; construction activity; changes in per capita retail sales; and airport use. Future employment projections include: the local and three county area; changes by job type; jobs and households; and job amounts in the proposed City annexation areas. An examination of past and future trends in various economic sectors shows which areas of the economy have been growing and which areas have been declining. The information provided in this report will help the County and City project the amounts and types of future land use needs, and show what parts of the economy need improvement. • '"' The previous 1991 economy report is entitled "Economy oNew Hanover Count y. " 1991. See the appendix for CAMA planning information. . II. SUMMARY Total Employment Number.of County employees in 1996: 78,200. Top four employment f ields: Service 26%, 20,500; Retail trade 23%, 17,900; Government 17 13,000; and Manufacturing 11%, 8,600. In 1996 total employment in New Hanover County was approximately 78,200. Of that total the top four job types were: retail trade, 17,900; services 20,500; government 13,000 and manufacturing 8,600. These and the other five remaining generalized job types in the County are shown in the following table and chart (Source: NC Employment Security Commission). New Hanover County Employment Sector 1996 Employment % of County Employment Agriculture 270 0.3% Manufacturing 8590 11 °% Construction 6080 8% Transportation Communication Utilities 3590 5% Wholesale Trade 5034 6% Retail Trade 17846 23% Finance Insurance Real Estate 3100 4°% Services 20500 26% Government 12950 17°% Total 78205 100°% Source NC ESC Services 26°% • Employment in New Hanover County -1996 Government 170A Finance Insurance Real Estate 4°% Agriculture .3°% Manufacturing 11 % Retail Trade 23°% ^^ 'vcti8 on % Transportation Communication Public Utilities 5°% Wholesale Trade 6°% Trends: County job gains and losses 1990-'96 Top three job gains Services +7,100, Trade +4,600, Construction +2,000. Top job loss - Manufacturing -900. The following table and chart show the County job gain and loss between 1990 and 1996. The three largest job growth areas were in service, trade, and construction. The largest loss of jobs was in manufacturing. Agriculture and transportation -communication -utilities showed slight losses during the time period (Source: NC Employment Security Commission). Local government responsibilities grew as the population in New Hanover County grew. Between 1990 and 1996 the population grew from approximately 120,000 to 143,000 an increase of 2'U00 new residents. W N O J O G ro 0 0 7 New Hanover County Job Gain and Loss 1990-1996 Existing Jobs by Year Change in jobs 1990 1996 1990-1996 Agriculture 303 270 —33 Manufacturing 9,500 8,590 -910 Construction 4,110 6,060 1,970 Transportation, communication, utilities 3,620 3,590 -30 Trade 18,250 22,880 4,630 Finance, insurance, real estate 2.470 3,100 630 Services 13,430 20,500 7,070 Government 11,340 12,950 1,610 Total 63,023 77,960 14,937 New Hanover County Job Gain or Loss, 1990 -1996 t ,970 d PIP) 7 C C C N d U N C V U 2 O I�Q _ 0 C w 0 E E C3 7 (A0 7= N N 44) (n o Q E m C7 c LL II-2 • • Manufacturing Between 1975 and 1995 the relative proportion of Manufacturing in the County's total •Industry Employment decreased approximately 13% from 9,700 to 8,500 workers. Significant decreases in employment took place in the Fabricated Metals and Textiles industries, and a significant increase took place in the Printing industry. However, over the last approximate ten years total manufacturing employment figures have remained fairly constant. Nonmanufacturing From 1975 to 1995 the proportion of Nonmanufacturing employment has continued to increase, from 26,900 workers to 65,300 workers. Trade, Service, and Government employment constitute the major proportion of the Nonmanufacturing employment growth. Cost of Living Local 1996 cost of living values were compared with the nation. The composite cost of living value for the nation was 100 and Wilmington was 103. Values greater than 100 mean that Wilmington was more expensive than the nation. A breakdown of Wilmington cost of living values compared to the nation were: groceries - 98, housing - 110, utilities - 114, transportation - 89, and health care - 100. Most notably housing costs in Wilmington were 10 points higher than the nation. Wages New Hanover County business patterns for 1995-96 show that approximately half of the jobs were in retail trade and services. The third and fourth greatest percentage of jobs were respectively in government - 17%, and manufacturing - 12%. The average annual wage per employee was $23,300. The top three wage categories were in manufacturing - $38,400, government - $27,100, and transportation -communications -public utilities - $27,100. The bottom three wage categories were in retail trade - $13,300, agriculture -forestry -fishing -mining - $15,200, and services - $21,300. The fact that half of the jobs in the County in 1995 were in the bottom three wage earning categories and that housing is 10 points higher than the nation, are issues of H_ concern that policy and implementation actions should address in the Comprehensive Plan. - County Compared With the United States Shift Share Analysis is an economic method used to compare County's employment with the US employment. Between 1990 to 1995 analysis shows that there has been a loss in competitive share in the County compared to the US in five of eight manufacturing employment types. There were increases in five of six nonmanufacturing types. Policy and implementation actions should address steps that can be taken to increase better paying manufacturing employment in the County. • Movies The film industry represents about 12% of the County's economy. In 1996, production spending in the County was $242 million; $165 million from six theatrical and 28 made for television features, and $77 million from television projects, commercials and allied production services. There are approximately 750 area resident technical crew members who work in the local film industry. II-3 Tourism In 1996 Travel and Tourism contributed $235 million to the County's economy. After0 adjusting for inflation, travel and tourism expenditures have not increa xp sed substantially from the 1989 level. Almost $2 million in revenue was generated in 1995 by the County's 3% room occupancy tax. 60% of the tax was contributed to beach renourishment and 40% to travel and tourism promotions. In 1996 approximately 1.5 million tourists visited the County. Shipping Port The Wilmington state port from 1990 to 1996 added to the state economy by ripple effect: 46,000 new jobs, $1.3 billion in income; $8.3 billion in new sales; and $185 million in new taxes. Needed port improvements to remain competitive include: deepening the harbor; improving inland highway and rail access to the terminal; and modernizing and maintaining the terminal to meet demands of the market place. Construction New construction pumped $268 million into the New Hanover County economy in 1996, up from $108 million in 1981. Since 1981 the unincorporated County has consistently seen the greatest amount of annual new construction in terms of dollars. This amount has been approximately twice the amount produced by Wilmington and the beach towns combined. From 1990 to 1996 the Unincorporated County has seen an increase of residential construction from approximately 1,000 to 2,100 units per year. Wilmington has seen an increase from 200 to 1,400 units per year. The three beach towns combined annually average approximately 100 to 200 units of new construction. 0 From 1981 to 1996 the annual number of approved subdivision lots in the Unincorporated County has increased from 400 to 1,900. Per Capita Retail Sales New Hanover County was essentially tied for third place in per capita retail sales in 1995 statewide. In terms of the ratio of per capita retail sales verses population the County was second highest. New Hanover County remains a favorite destination for shopping and tourism. Airport Between 1980 to 1996 airport use grew by 2.5 times to 405,000 users. By 2010 the projected use is expected to double. Commercial, industrial, and residential land development near the airport will need to be carefully guided. General Business Climate Wilmington has a good general business climate and ranked second in the state in a 1998 poll. Unemployment Since 1985 the unemployment rate has averaged 1%to 1.5%higher in the City than the County. During this time unemployment for the City and County has ranged from approximately 4% to 8%. In 1996 and 1997 the County and City were at a time of relatively low unemployment. II-4 • • Historically the City has had higher unemployment than County. In recent years many jobs have moved from the central City to the suburbs, such as east Oleander Drive, Carolina Beach Road, and South College Road, leaving the unemployed behind. Policy and implementation actions will need to address chronic unemployment challenges, and new mass transportation routes. Employment Projections The three county area trend from 1997 to 2010 predicts New Hanover will add 22,000 new workers, Brunswick 25,000, and Pender 7,000. From 1997 to 2010 the County is projected to gain an increasingly aging workforce in the +60 age group, and the City is projected to gain a large increase in the 30 to 49 age group workforce. The 2010 projected top four most numerous job types are: Trade, Service, Government, and Manufacturing. This projection should only be used as a rough estimate as unforeseen changes in the economy could alter the amounts. The County and City jobs to household ratios have slightly decreased from 1985 to 1995. This projection is for this trend to continue as the size of households decreases. In 1995 the ratios were 1.26 in the County and 1.07 in the City. The County has a higher number of jobs per household than the City and is likely due to the City's higher unemployment. II-5 III. EMPLOYMENT INDICATORS Employment by Place of Work Trend. The top four growth fields in County to 2010 will likely be: Service, Construction, Trade, Finance -insurance -real estate. The County economic growth rate from 1990. to 1996 averaged 4% per year. The following table and chart show that from 1990 to 1996 total average employment growth in the County was almost 4% per year (see right side of chart). The two largest areas of growth in terms of employment were service and construction jobs, at respectively 8.8% per year and 8.0% per year. Agriculture and manufacturing registered employee losses of, respectively, 1.8% and -1.6% per year. Transportation -communications -utilities showed no growth at approximately 0%. The remaining job categories grew at 2% to 4% per year (from the NC ESQ. 9% 8% 7% 2% t NEW HANOVER COUNTY Average Employment Growth Per Year 1990= 96 j Cp C C C OU m C u m O V b f ` m E < m a E fn U � c iL ~ New Hanover County Employment Changes'90= 96 Job Average Change per Agriculture 1990 1996 Change year(1990.1996) Manufacturing 303 270 (33) -18% Construction 9,500 8,590 (910) -1.6% Transportation, Communication, Utilities 4,110 3,620 6,080 3,590 1,970 8.0% Trade (30) -01 % Finance, Insurance, Real estate 18,250 2,470 22,880 3,100 4,630 630 4.2% Services 13,430 20,500 7,070 4.3% 8.8% Government 11,340 12,950 1,610 2.4% Total Average 63,023 77,960 14,937 4.0% s 1� u is - Generalized historical employment by type of work in New Hanover County from 1975 to 1995 is characterized by the following table. Employment by place of work. Number of Workers Category 1975 1995 % Change Total industrial 36,570 73,790 102% Manufacturing 9,710 8,460 -13% Nonmanufacturing 26,860 65,330 143% Total non -industrial 5,999 2,645 -56% Agriculture 442 270 39% Other 5,557 2,375 -57% Total 42,569 76,435 80% Source: NCESC .. The above table and the following figure show employment trends between 1975 and 1995 where: manufacturing decreased by approximately 13%, nonmanufacturing more than doubled, agriculture decreased by 39%, and the 'other" m-' category had two long periods of no change and two decreases (see below figure) which resulted in a decrease of 57%. As shown in the above table the important trends are a sharp increase in non -manufacturing, a steady decline in manufacturing, and a decrease in agriculture and the 'other" category. These changes mark a steady shift towards a nonmanufacturing economic base in New Hanover County. For more manufacturing and nonmanufacturing information see the Appendix. • New Hanover County Employment by Place of Work . 70,000 60.000 L----------------------------------- - - - - -- - 50,000�------7----------------------- --------- - - - - -. 0 4,= �.-------------- - - - - -- -- - - -- -------------------- 30,000 -- - ------------------------------------------ 0 20,0M - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 10,000 • • • •--C--�— ♦--�—• • +—r—• • • a Year �- ♦— Manufacturing —M-- Nonmanufacturing —A— Agriculture —jE— Other* m -1 Other: nonagricultural self-employed workers, unpaid family workers, and domestic workers in private households. III-2 Cost of Living Trend. Housing in Wilmington is more expensive than the national average, and more expensive than_almost all cities in North Carolina. The following table shows a comparison cost of living in 1996 for Wilmington, with the nation and five other cities in North Carolina (N.C. SE Regional Data Book). The comparative standard is the nation as a whole where all values are 100. In terms of the cost of groceries, Wilmington was two points lower than the nation. For housing, Wilmington was 10 points higher than the nation and more expensive than Ral6igh-Durham and Winston-Salem, but cheaper than Chapel Hill. For utilities, Wilmington was 6 points higher than the average of cities shown. For transportation, Wilmington was 11 points cheaper than the nation. For health care costs, Wilmington had the same value as the nation at 100. Wilmington's composite index was 103 or three points higher than the nation. Of the cities shown Fayetteville had the cheapest composite index, and Chapel Hill was the most expensive. Comparison Cost of Living -1996 Composite Index Groceries Housing Utilities Transportation Health Care United States 100 100 100 100 100 100 Wilmington 103 98 110 114 89 100 Fayetteville 97 99 85 117 95 90 Raleigh- 103 101 108 112 94 105 Durham Chapel Hill 115 98 138 112 101 111 Winston- 101 95 108 110 100 88 Salem Charlotte 99 97 98 104 99 103 From: North Carolina's Southeast Regional Data Book Elizabethtown, NC. Wages The table on the next page shows the summary of business patterns in 1995 for the County (N.C. SE Regional Data Book). Shown are work category, employment, payroll, and annual wage per employee. For employment: 80% of the jobs in the County were in service; 19% were in goods consisting of manufacturing and construction; and 1 % were in Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing, and Mining. The County annual average wage per employee was $23,300. The best paying employment was in manufacturing, although these jobs make up only 12% of the employment. Although services and retail trade jobs constitute half of the County employment, the pay is relatively low at $13,300 for retail trade and $21,300 for services. Trend.,*,,: Manufacturing jobs pay the best, but the trend has been a loss. of these jobs.at 1% per. year. In"1996 manufacturing comprised 11% of the workforce in the County.'. III - 3 f • -� New Hanover County Business Patterns -1995 Work Category Employ- % of Total Payroll $ Millions Annual Wage / ment Employee ($) Goods - Producing 13,800 19% $ 446 $ 32,400 Manufacturing 8,400 12°% $ 324 $ 38,400 Construction 5,400 8% $ 122 $ 22,800 Services -Producing 57,500 80°% $ 1,218 $ 21,200 Retail Trade 18,300 25°% $ 245 $ 13,300 Services 17,200 240% $ 366 $ 21,300 Government 12,100 17°% $ 343 $ 28,200 Wholesale Trade 3,500 5°% $ 97 $ 27,700 Transportation - Commun- 3,400 5°% $ 92 $ 27,100 ications - Public Utilities Finance-Insur: Real Estate 2,900 4% $ 77 $ 26,600 Agricul. Forestry Fish. Mining 600 10C $ 9 $ 15,200 Total 71,800 1000,6 Total $ 1,673 Avg. $ 23,300 • Trend. Fifty-seven percent of the jobs in the County pay relatively poorly. These jobs are in retail trade $13,300, service $21,300, -and construction $22,800. These three job categories.are projected to be #1, #2, and #3 in growth based on past trends. The chart on the next page shows that pay has not increased markedly in the last decade in the County (from: NC ESC in the Wilmington Star, 7/27/97). Overall County pay average was $313 per week in 1987 and was $433 per week in 1997. This apparent $120 per week increase in pay shows essentially no increase after including inflation. Manufacturing has made steady gains even accounting for inflation from approximately $660 per week to $760 per week. Unfortunately these relatively high paying jobs made up only approximately 11% of the jobs in the County in 1996. Furthermore, the number of manufacturing jobs have been decreasing at 1% per year since 1990. Non -manufacturing jobs constitute the bulk of the County employment at 89%. After adjusting for inflation, there has been no significant increase in pay in non -manufacturing jobs in the last ten years, from approximately $370 per week in 1987 to $385 in 1997. I11-4 Trend. Local pay has not increased much in the last '.*10,yd:a:_r:safter inflation is factored in. However, an exception is*_'m'an_U*'facturin'q'* jobs that comprise 11% -of the -work force. Average Weekly Wage New Hanover County 8M............... ............... ......... ............ ...... ­T*­ ­'i ........... 750 - - - --- - - --- - - - 700 -- - - - - - - 6501 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - IManufacturing 600 - - - 550 ----- loverall I ------------- 3: 450 CL 400 y - - - - - - - - - - -- - - --- - - - 350 - - - - - - - O "I 300 T Non -manufacturing 250 - - --- - - - 200 - - - 150-- 1 0 Adjusted for inflation 100 L T1' - --*—Not adjusted for inflation 0 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 111-5 IV. COMPARISON OF COUNTY ECONOMY TO U.S. OR SHIFT SHARE ANALYSIS Explanation of Shift Share Analysis Methods Used Shift Share Analysis is economic analysis that shows changes in the industrial jobs of New Hanover County as compared to the U.S. by three parts: national growth, industrial mixture, and local competitive edge, as shown in the following table. These three parts sum to give total change for the County in terms of number of employees for each job type IV-1 Comparison of County employment to U.S. Shift share analysis Employment Change 1990-1995 National Industry County Competitive Total County Job Growth Mixture Edge versus US Change Manufacturing Textiles -3 0 -27 30 Apparel -47 39 -794 -880 Lumber and Wood -12 29 113 130 Printing -16 12 84 80 Chemicals -69 30 290 251 Fabricated Metals -8 20 -22 -10 Machinery '. -40 32 -328 -400 Other Manufacturing -118 33 -28 -179 Total Manufacturing 313 -13 -712 -1038 Nonmanufacturing Construction —98%• Mining —2% 333 348 1525 1510 Transportation, Communications, 294 39 355 -100 Public Utilities Trade 1480 -125 2655 4010 Financial, Insurance, Real Estate 200 -212 522 510 Service, Miscellaneous 1089 918 2722 4729 Government -: 920 -32 563 1451 Total Nonmanufacturing 4316 162 7632 12110 Trend: Between 1990 to 1995,-thEre was a loss in the County competitive share compared to the U.S. in five of eight manufacturing job types. There were increases in five of six nonmanufacturing jobs types.'Policy and implementation actions should address what steps can be taken to increase high paying manufacturing employment and decrease :the amount of low -paying nonmanufacturing`jobs inthe County = rv' 1 The explanations in this section are quoted and paraphrased from: "Microcomputers & economic analysis; spreadsheet templates for local government." 1987, Univ. of Florida. Bureau of Economic and • Business Research, College of Business Administration. Issue No. 4. Gainesville, FL. For details see Appendix. IV-1 National Growth Results The National Growth column in the previous table shows that all US manufacturing` employment decreased from 1990 to 1995, while all nonmanufacturing employment increased during the same time period. The three largest losses in manufacturing were the 'other" manufacturing category, chemicals, and apparel. The three largest gains in nonmanufacturing employment were service and miscellaneous, trade, and government. Industrial Mixture Results Categories in manufacturing apparel, machinery and other manufacturing grew slower than the national average of all manufacturing employment; while lumber and wood, printing, chemicals, and fabricated metals grew faster than the national average. The textiles employment category grew at the same rate as the national average of all manufacturing employment. For nonmanufacturing, all employment categories showed slower growth than the national average of all nonmanufacturing employment except for service and miscellaneous. Competitive Edge Results New Hanover County's competitive edge in five of eight manufacturing employment categories decreased from 1990 to 1995. Three manufacturing employment types had a competitive edge increase and they were lumber and wood, printing, and chemicals. The two biggest decreases in competitive edge were in apparel and machinery. Local nonmanufacturing competitive edge employment increased in all employment types from 1990 to 1995 except for the category of transportation, communications and public utilities which saw a decrease. The three most competitive employment types in nonmanufacturing were • trade, service and miscellaneous, and construction and mining. Total Change Results The previous table shows nonmanufacturing employment in New Hanover County grew by approximately 12,100 jobs from 1990 to 1995, while manufacturing lost approximately 1,000 jobs. In the eight manufacturing employment categories, only three posts, gains and they were in lumber and wood, printing, and chemicals. All other manufacturing employment categories lost jobs. , In the six nonmanufacturing categories, five gained employment with the exception of the transportation, communications and public utilities category which saw a loss of 100 jobs from 1990 to 1995. The four biggest employment gains were in service and miscellaneous (an increase of approximately 4,700 new jobs), trade (approximately 4,000 new jobs) and construction (approximately 1,500 new jobs; note that mining only constitutes approximately 1-2% of the total), and government with1,450 new jobs. Between 1990 to 1995, there was a loss in competitive share in the County compared to the US in five of eight manufacturing employment types. There were increases in five of six nonmanufacturing types. Policy and implementation actions should address what steps can be taken to increase high paying manufacturing jobs, and decrease the amount of low paying nonmanufacturing jobs. IV-2 • 0 V. ADDITIONAL ECONOMIC FACTORS Movie Industry Trend. The movie industry -constitutes 12% of the local economy and. -_ the prospect is for continued growth. - 11 The film industry constitutes about 12% of the County's economy. v" In 1995, production spending in the County was $240 million, and in 1996 it was $242 million. Wilmington has led the way in North Carolina's $1.2 billion film industry from 1993 through 1995. In the last three years, over $720 million in film generated revenue,was brought to the Wilmington area from 20 feature films, 45 made -for -television movies and mini-series, three television series (53 episodes), and numerous commercial projects. There are approximately 750 area resident technical crew members who work in the local film industry. Wilmington is home to Screen Gems film -production facility and Wilmington Film Studios. The industry as a whole provided approximately 16,700 local jobs directly related to production in 1996. In 1994, the Wilmington Regional Film Commission was created and acts as a film liaison to the production industry and local community. Travel and Tourism Expenditures Trend..After adjusting for inflation, travel and tourism expenditures have not increased substantially from the 1989 level.. However* after a decrease in 1990, there has been a steady increase since 1992. The County is a travel and tourist destination. Between 1989 to 1996, travel and tourism expenditures in New Hanover County increased from approximately $200 million in the early 1990's to $235 million by 1996 after adjusting for inflation as shown in the following chart. 7200 C O E 150 c a 100 `m 0 50 1989 New Hanover County TRAVEL and TOURISM EXPENDITURES El Unadjusted for inflation € ElAdiusted for inflation 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 v-1 Based on a study done by Dr. William Hall at the UNCW at Wilmington's Cameron School of Business. This number was determined by looldng at the actual spending by productions in the county. V - 1 Local tourism draws are the beaches, the battleship, golf, fishing, historic sites, the aquarium, and scenic areas. The dollar amount of tourism in 1996 in New Hanover County represented 2.4% of the total for North Carolina. New Hanover County placed 8th of the 100 counties in the state for tourism dollars (from: NC Dept. of Commerce, Travel and Tourism Div.) As a result of tourism, state and local tax revenues from New Hanover County amounted to over $18 million in 1996. In the County, 4,510 jobs were directly attributable to travel and tourism. An additional 6,280 more jobs in the County are related to tourism. The average age for tourists in 1996 was 41 years old, 45% had household incomes of $50,000 or more, 48% were college grad- uates, and 21 % had graduate or professional school education. With regard to accommodations, 39% of visitors stayed in hotels and motels, 26% chose to stay with friends, 14% stayed in a cottage, cabin or condo, 5% stayed at a campground, 3% in a resort, and 1% in a bed and breakfast. Almost $2 million was collected by the County's 3% motel and hotel room occupancy tax in 1995, of which 60% was designated for beach renourishment and 40% for tourism promotions. The following table shows that room occupancy tax per month has increased on the order of 120% to 200% between 1985 to 1995, after adjusting for inflation. The figure below shows a comparison of monthly room tax revenue records over the past several years. Room tax receipts consistently increased during the summer and during the "shoulder seasons" of fall and spring. Motel - Hotel Room Occupancy Tax Collections (in 000's) Month 1985 ($) '85 adj. for 1995 inflation ($) ($) June 75.3 106.7 July 89.6 127.0 Aug 80.2 113.7 Sept 45.8 64.9 Oct 35.8 50.7 Nov 22.8 32.3 Dec 17.9 25.4 Jan 19.4 27.5 Feb 21.2 30.0 Mar 33 46.8 Apr 46.4 65.8 May 58.8 83.3 Source: NC Dept of Commerce Port Impact 250.2 355 257.3 196.8 133.4 91.3 61.8 60.6 75.3 103.5 160.9 206.5 Change 1340,E 1800/0 126% 203% 163% 183% 144% 120% 151 % 121 % 145% 148% New Hanover County Room Tax Receipts a $300,000Ev . d $200,000 E $100,000 $0?� c l0 N T T g 5 'o rn z Month 1994 PF 1991 1988 Year 1965 Trend. From 1990 to 1996 the Wilmington state port added to the state economy by ripple effect: 46,000 new jobs, $1.3 billion in.. income; $8.3 billion in new sales; and $185 million in new taxes A comparison of economic impacts on North Carolina between 1990 and 1996 by the state ports of Wilmington and Morehead City are summarized in the following table." Healthy v-3 North Carolina state ports authority economic impact study. 1990 and 1996 Update. Shoesmith, G.L. Babcock Graduate School of Management, Wake Forest University. Winston-Salem, NC. V-2 0 • increases have occurred in terms of employment, income, sales, and taxes to the State of North Carolina during the six years. In all areas, the Wilmington state port provided more port related economic activity than Morehead City. 1990 '96 Economic Impact to North Carolina Wilmington & Morehead City State Ports Employment (in'000s) State Ports 1990 1996 Increase Morehead City 6.1 14.8 8.7 Wilmington 19.8 65.6 45.8 Wilmington & Morehead City 25.9 80.4 54.5 Sales (billion) '90 adj. for '` In - State Ports 1990 inflation 1996 crease Morehead City 0.5 0.6 2.1 1.5 Wilmington 1.5 1.8 10.1 8.3 Wilmington & Morehead City 1.9 2.2 12.2 10.0 Source: NCSPA Income (billion) '90 adj. for 1990 inflation 1996 Increase 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 1.8 1.3 0.5 0.6 2.2 1.6 Taxes (million) '90 adj. for In- 1990 inflation 1996 crease 14.1 16.5 57.6 41.1 43 50.2 235.2 185.0 57.1 66.6 292.9 226.3 Trend. To remain competitive into the next decade, the state port will need to deepen its harbor, improve inland highway and rail access, and upgrade the terminal. The port growth is being guided by a Master Capital Development Plan (1997 to 2006). Improvements include: deepening the harbor; improving inland highway and rail access to the terminal; and modernizing and maintaining the terminal to meet demands of the market place. The following table shows a comparison of ports along the southeast coast. As a generalization, Wilmington moves a smaller amount of tonnage than the other ports shown. Similarly, Wilmington has a smaller amount of open storage in acres and reefer outlets (from: Vol. I: Summary NCSPA Master Capital Development Plan (1997-2006), North Carolina Ports. Moffatt & Nichol Engrs.). Competition from the other ports centers on: the size of the local market that can be more cost effectively served; transportation access by rail and road to inland markets; competitive terminal costs; harbor quality such as depth and distance from the open sea; and facility quality. For the port of Wilmington to expand these issues will have to be addressed. Comparison of Competing Ports Annual Tonnage Port Open Storage Reefer Outlets Container Break -bulk Dry -bulk Liquid -bulk Hampton Roads 1,171 na 6,586,000 1,052,000 0 0 Morehead City 14 0 0 178,000 2,076,000 0 Wilmington 123 129 762,000 745,000 619,000 0 Charleston 411 764 6.300.000 1,600,000 400.000 0 Savannah 406 354 4,072,000 2,267,000 1,065,000 1,264,000 Jacksonville 563 592 2,989,000 981,000 266,000 177,000 The following map and table on the next page shows the regional job growth in the state created by the Port of Wilmington employment and economic effects (from: G. L. Shoesmith, see V-3 footnote V-3). The below table shows the 45,800 new jobs were generated state wide by ripple effect by the State Port of Wilmington from 1990 to 1996. This increase was from 19,800 to 65,600 jobs. North Carolina Multi -County Planning Regions Wilmington State Port Employment Impact To North Carolina by Region Including Direct, Indirect, and Induced Effects Employment Persons • A City in the region Region 1990 1996 Growth (Decrease) Franklin A 100 60 (40) Ashville B 300 10 (290) Shelby C 300 90 (210) Boone D 100 400 300 • Hickory E 700 5,500 4,800 Charlotte F 3,300 11,000 7,700 Greensboro G 3,800 2,700 (1,100) Rockingham H 300 800 500 Winston-Salem 1 4,900 8,100 3,200 Raleigh J 300 17,700 17,400 Henderson K 300 1,700 1,400 Rocky Mount L 100 5,100 5,000 Fayetteville M 650 400 (250) Lumberton N 400 600 200 Wilmington O 2,700 5,100 2,400 Knston P 600 4,600 4,000 Greenville Q 500 1,600 1,100 Elizabeth City R 300 50 (250) North Carolina 19,800 65,600 45,800 Note: Rounding up of values was used. For exact amounts readers are referred to the reports Analysis of the table on the next page shows the growth of income, sales and taxes by region in the state created by the Wilmington State Port. With very few exceptions, regions saw an increase in income between 1990 and 1996. Not surprisingly, the larger urban areas such as Charlotte, Winston-Salem, Raleigh, and Rocky Mount saw the largest increases. Some of the less urban areas saw slight income decreases during the time period. Similar patterns are shown for sales and taxes. The Port of Wilmington is a large contributor to the economy of the state and added to the state economy by ripple effect $1.3 billion in income, $8.3 billion in new sales, and $184 million in new taxes from 1990 to 1996. V-4 z Wilmington State Port Impact to North Carolina by Region Income, Sales & Taxes Including Direct, Indirect, and Induced Effects $ In Millions Income Sales Taxes A City in the region Region 1990 '90 adj. 1996 Growth 1990 '90 adj. for 1996 Growth 1990 '90 adj. 1996 Growth (see map) for in- (Decrease) in-flation (Decrease) for in- (Decrease) flation flation Franklin A 2 2 1 (1.1) 7 8 6 (2.1) 0.2 0 0.2 (0.0) Ashville B 7 8 0 (7.5) 26 31 2 (29.5) 0.8 1 0.1 (0.9) Shelby C 6 7 2 (4.9) 22 26 11 (15.5) 0.7 1 0.3 (0.5) Boone D 2 2 8> 1 5.7 6 7 25 18.8 0.2 0 1.0 0.8 Hickory E 12 15 137 122.4 46 55 876 821.1 1.4 2 18.1 16.4 Charlotte F 58 70 284 213.9 212 254 1,744 1,489.5 6.7 8 37.2 29.2 Greensboro G 70 84 61 (22.8) 257 309 222 (86.8) 8.1 10 7.7 (2.0) Rockingham H 5 5 20 14.2 16 20 97 77.7 0.5 1 2.5 1.9 Winston-Salem 1 93 112 235 123.7 415 499 2,165 1,665.9 10.6 13 34.5 21.8 Raleigh J 5 6 509 502.6 19 22 1,766 1.743.5 0.6 1 64.4 63.7 Henderson K 4 5 39 34.0 13 16 157 140.5 0.5 1 5.0 4.4 Rocky Mount L 2 2 154 151.5 7 9 1,446 1,436.8 0.2 0 22.6 22.4 Fayetteville M 13 15 12 (2.8) 51 61 50 (10.9) 1.5 2 1.6 (0.2) Lumberton N 7 8 18 10.0 24 29 72 43.0 0.8 1 2.3 1.3 Wilmington Q 58 70 140 70.5 231 278 565 287.4 7.0 8 18.1 9.7 Krnston P 12 14 116 101.8 43 51 746 694.4 1.4 2 15.4 13.7 Greenville a 11 13 32 19.7 43 51 143 92.0 1.3 2 4.2 2.6 Elizabeth City R 6 7 1 (5.3) 21 25 6 (19.6) 0.7 1 0.2 (0.6) North Carolina 370 444 1,770 1.325.9 1,457 1.750 10.097 8,346.5 43 52 235 183.5 Note: Rounding up of values was used. For exact amounts readers are referred to the reports. 0- Dollar Amount of New Construction 7:­ Trend.':,._:�New construction pumped $268 million into the New Hanover County economy in 1.996, up_from $108 million in 1981 This isan .Increase of $159 million. The table on the next page shows that the total value of new construction in New Hanover County markedly increased from 1981 to 1996 from $108 million to $268 million for an increase of $159 million (Source: New Han. Co. Planning Dept.). During this time period, the unincorporated County total value increased from $61 million to $175 million. Wilmington grew with new construction from $26 million in 1981 to approximately $78 million in 1996. Wrightsville Beach saw a decrease from $13 million to $3 million total value of new annual construction likely caused by most of the land being built out. Carolina Beach increased from $8 million to $11 million, and Kure Beach from $.3 million to $4.6 million. V-5 Total Value of New Construction New Hanover County In Millions ($) 1981 1996 Change'81-'96 Unincorporated New Han. Co. 60.8 175.1 114.3 Wilmington 25.9 77.5 51.6 Wrightsville Beach 13.3 3.0 -10.3 Carolina Beach 7.9 11.5 3.6 Kure Beach 0.3 4.6 4.3 Total New Hanover County 108.3 267.6 159.3 Note: I MI Vs ue aQusted for Inftbon to ISM. Tre-n Since 1981, the -Unincorporated County has consistently seen the largest dollar amount of annual new construction. This - amount has been approximately. twice that of Wilmington and_. the beach towns combined.--:._. The following chart shows the 1981 to 1996 annual total value of new construction for: (from left to right for each year) Kure Beach; Carolina Beach; Wrightsville Beach; Wilmington; and unincorporated New Hanover County. All values are adjusted for inflation to 1996 dollars. is V-6 401-. .i The chart on the previous page shows general economic growth from 1981 to approximately 1989, an economic slump for 1990 and 1991, and a resumption of increased growth to 1991. The largest growth has been in the unincorporated County, from $60 million in 1981 to $175 million in 1996. Wilmington saw an increase from 1981 to 1989 of $25 to $75 million. This was followed by a drop in 1990 to approximately $30 million and thereafter, steady gains to 1996 to approximately $75 million. Carolina Beach saw most of its growth from 1981 to 1884 where it peaked at $30 million. Since that time, it has averaged approximately $10 million annually. Between 1981 and 1982, Wrightsville Beach had between $10 and $25 million in annual new construction. Since 1983, Wrightsville Beach has not exceeded $5 to $10 million annually. From 1981 to 1996, Kure Beach has generally averaged between $5 and $10 million in annual new construction. Annual Units of Residential Construction Trend. from 1990 to 1996, the unincorporated County has had an increase of residential construction from approximately-1,000 -to 2,100 units per -year. Wilmington -has seen an increase from 200 to 1,400 units per year. The three beach towns combined annually average approximately 100 to-200-units of new. construction. The following chart shows that residential construction in New Hanover County has steadily increased from approximately 1,300 units in 1990 to 3,700 units in 1996 (Source: NHC Planning Dept.). The chart shows that approximately 90% of the annual residential unit construction in New Hanover County has been in the unincorporated County and Wilmington. Only approximately 10% of County annual residential construction occurred in Kure Beach, Carolina Beach, and Wrightsville Beach. From 1990 to 1996 the Unincorporated County had Residential Construction New Hanover County Wrightsville Beach 3500 ❑ Kure Beach 3000 0 Carolina Beach - H 25oo L�J1J�/ Z 1500 1000 500 ❑ Wilmington ❑ Unincorporated New Han. Co. ....• -4^�C G •.n y" - . `ice' NX :::• :.... ` 0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 Year V-7 an increase of residential construction from approximately 1,000 to 2,100 units per year. Wilmington saw an increase from 200 to 1,400 units per year. The three beach towns combined ' annually averaged approximately 100 to 200 units of new construction. Unincorporated County Residential Subdivision Activity The following chart shows subdivision activity in the Unincorporated County from 1981 to 1996. In 1980, the number of final approved plat lots was approximately 400. By 1987, this amount climbed to over 2,100. But in the time interval between 1988 to 1992, the amount decreased to approximately 1,000 lots per year. Since 1992, there was a steady increase in lots approved. By 1996, the number of lots approved was 1,900. Preliminary lots (not final) approved in the unincorporated County doubled from 2,500 in 1994 to 5,000 in 1996. (Source: NHC Planning Dept.). > ; Trel'lc! from98i to 3996, the annual number of approved subdivision lots in the Unincorporated County increased from 400-to1,900. > 2000 0 a a a 15M O J `o 1000 `m E 500 M z Subdivision Activity In Unincorporated New Hanover County • ! - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -� i - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -� i -- ----------------------------------- - - - - - i I a 8 9 Year Per Capita Retail Sales New Hanover County continues to serve as a regional trade and service center for southeastern North Carolina. The following table on the next page shows the leading contributors to retail sales in descending retail contribution for the past several years in the County. Typical examples are also shown for each category. • V-8 • New Hanover County Leading Contributors to Retail Sales Typical Examples General merchandise Department stores, drug stores and discount stores Food Grocery stores and restaurants Unclassified category Hotels, office machine stores, and supply stores Automobile sales Motor vehicles, mobile homes, and service stations Trend. New Hanover County was essentially tied for third place in per capita retail.sales in 1995.in thestate. In terms of_theratio of per capita retail sales verses popuiation, the County was.second highest. New Hanover County remains a favorite.destination for shopping and tourism: The following chart shows a comparison of 1995 per capita retail sales and population in twelve counties in the state. In 1995, New Hanover County's per capita retail sales were ranked fourth highest in the state at $15,717. Even though New Hanover County has a relatively small population, it has a very high amount of retail sales as compared with Forsyth (Winston-Salem), Guilford (Greensboro), Mecklenburg (Charlotte), and Wake (Raleigh). The following table shows the ratio of per capita retail sales to population. This comparison reveals that New Hanover County with a ratio . I I had the second highest value only exceeded by Catawba (Hickory) at .12. Comparison: Per Capita Retail Sales and Population -1995 — 700,000 d S25,000 I �' — 600,000 I w 520,000 i $15,774 $19.198 i :.': :.: $19657 — ,000 $14.511 7ji.i 515.71T $14.754 O 515,000 S 13.391 S12.3Q3 wy. 400=0 I , ; $8.548 R wo,� f1 j G $10,000 37.400 d I �a I U y► :i: $5.612 2W,0w S5 030 100 000 f O E R 3 •O C E t C 6 U M N N V o• e y Y 1 u @ e li Z y 0 U o m' UD Per Capita Retail Sales — Population Ratio of Per Capita Retail Sales to Population County Ratio Buncombe 0.07 Catawba 0.12 Cumberland 0.03 Davidson 0.05 Durham 0.06 Forsyth 0.06 Gaston 0.06 Guilford 0.05 Mecklenburg 0.03 New Hanover 0.11 Onslow 0.04 Wake 0.03 V-9 Airport Growth Trend. Between 1980 to 1996, airport use grew by 2.5 times to 405,000 users. By 2010, the projected use is expected to.. double. Commercial, industrial, and residential land development _ near the airport will need to be carefully guided The New Hanover County airport will continue to attract industrial, commercial, and service -related businesses to locate near the airport. Proposed industrial and commercial facilities and aviation -related expansion potential would result in employment opportunities for New Hanover County citizens. _ In 1996 New Hanover International Airport represented 95 percent of the region's total airport related expenditures.v- With approximately 100 based aircraft and 79,200 annual aircraft operations, the airport generated $117.1 million in airport expenditures, and $55.5 million in earnings. The local economy benefited from approximately 2,700 jobs created by airport activity and 200,900 visitors in 1996. From 1980 to 1996 airplane passenger use at New Hanover International Airport increased from 156,000 to 405,000. This is a growth of approximately two and a half times in the last sixteen years. Enplanements and deplanements have increased an average of 4 to 6 percent per year from 1980 to 1996. " The ratio of passenger use to population almost doubled during the same time periodBy the year 2010, passenger use is projected to increase to approximately twice the 1996 level. (source: New Han. Inter. Airport. Airport master plan update: 1995= 15. March 1997 final comprehensive draft: Vol. I. For: New Han. Co. Airport Authority. By: Delta Airport Consultants, Inc. Charlotte, NC.) Airplane Passengers New Hanover International Airport Year Population of Number of Ratio of Number of Ratio of Four County enplanements enplanments deplanements deplanments Area to population to population 1980 212,500 77,600 0.37 78,100 0.37 1996 294,100 203,700 0.69 200,900 0.68 Source: New Hanover Intemational Airport Report, 1997. Four County Area: New Hanover, Columbus, Pender, Brunswick The following two figures on the next page show the increase of enplanements and deplanements with population, from 1980 to 1996, at the New Hanover International Airport for the four county area: New Hanover, Columbus, Pender, Brunswick. 0, v4 1997 Information provided by New Hanover International Airport. " Yew Han. Inter. Airport. Airport master plan update: 1995-75. March `97 final comprehensive draft: • Vol. I. For: New Han. Co. Airport Authority. By: Delta Airport Consultants, Inc. Charlotte, NC. V-10 50,000 Enplanements vs. Population New Hanover International Airport 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1096 150,000 E 100.000 50,000 General Business Climate Deplanements vs. Population New Hanover International Airport ® No. of declanements 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1 99:0 1992 1994 1996 Trend. WAI-mington has a good general business climate and ranked second in the state in a 1998 poll. The magazine "Business of North Carolina" in January 1998 released the general business climate of 50 cities in North Carolina. Wilmington was ranked second and is a positive business indicator. Components to the study were work force, infrastructure, business climate, and quality of life. The other top ten cities from the poll are shown below. General business climate rankings of top ten North Carolina cities -1998 1. Charlotte 5. Hickory 8. Kemersville 2. Wilmington 6. Burlington 9. Huntersville 3. Raleigh 7. Winston-Salem 10. Statesville 4. Greensboro Components to business ranking Workforce: Unemployment, work -force growth, college graduates, community -college education. Infrastructure: Interstate highway connection, air -service, water cost. Business climate: Business starts, success ratio, economic development spending, per capita property tax, per capita retail sales. Quality of life: Parks and cultural spending, weather, crime, medical services, schools. V-11 VI. UNEMPLOYMENT County and City unemployment rates from 1985 to 1995 are shown in the following table and graph. The City has consistently had unemployment on the order of 1% to 1.5 % higher than the County (from NC ESC data). In 1997 the unemployment rate was 3.7% in the County and 4.4% in the City. County and City Unemployment Rates Year and % Unemployment 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 New Hanover Co. 5.7 6.5 6.2 4.6 '3.9, 4.6 6.0 7.3 7.0 6.9 5.7 4.6 3.7 Wilmington 7.1 8.1 7.6 5.6 4.9 5.6 7.4 8.9 8.6 8.3 6.9 5.6 4.4 County and City Unemployment Rates 10------------- _---------------------- ----- ---- ------------- ------------------------ ..--------------------------- c 8 m '' 6 o , E 4 2 0I - - - - New Hanover Co. Wilmington The following table shows that in 1997 there were approximately 1,500 and 2,900 unemployed respectively in Wilmington and New Hanover County. City -County Employment & Unemployment 1997 Civilian Employment Unemployment Percent Labor Force Unemployed Wilmington 33.990 32,460 1,530 4.5% New Hanover County 78,590 75,700 2,890 3.7% Within the above unemployment amounts are chronically the unemployed in the City and County. A 1991 report entitled "Mayor's Task Force on Unemployment" summarized the challenges facing unemployed and discouraged workers in the Wilmington area. In 1990, the U.S. Census estimated that discouraged workers in the 18 to 34 age range comprised 2.3% of the population, 7% for blacks and 1.1% for whites. • • VI - I • The key finding of the report was that the problems of the chronically unemployed can be traced through stages in the life cycle of individuals. The problems do not suddenly appear at the point of job entry; instead, they begin in many instances as early as birth and are compounded throughout life. The cumulative effect of adverse developmental conditions hinders an individual's ability to participate successfully and remain in the workforce. • Much of the recent business development has located in the suburbs outside of downtown Wilmington. This has added to the difficulty of many of the unemployed obtaining work due to the distance between residence and jobs. The Comprehensive Plan should address the unemployment challenge with policy and implementation actions. VI-2 VII. EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS Regional Employment Projections The following table shows the projected regional employment to the year 2010 excluding the unemployed. According to the estimate, in the next 13 years New Hanover County will add approximately 22,000 new workers residing in the County. Brunswick County is projected to add approximately 25,000 new workers, Pender County 7,000, and the Wilmington 15,000. Wilmington's projection excludes proposed annexations. Regional Employment Projections _ 1997-2010 (x 1,000)„ Jurisdiction 1997 2016 1997 to 2010 Change New Hanover County 71.4 93.5 22.1 Brunswick County 28.7 54.1 25.4 Pender County 14.5 21.2 6.7 City of Wilmington 31.2 45.7 14.5 From: NC ESC (Total Jobs, Civilian Labor Force by Residence, excluding unemployed) Trend. The three county area trend from 1997 to 2010 is fihat New Hanover will add 22,000 new workers, Brunswick 25,000, and Pender 7,000. County and City Projections of Labor Force by Age Group The following table and chart show the projected worker percent changes by age group in New Hanover County from 1997 to 2010. Labor force includes the employed and unemployed residents in New Hanover County.v"-' Inspection reveals a projected comparatively large increase in the number of people older than 60 including retirees, and fairly uniform increases in four age groups from 20 to 59. The 16 to 19 age group is projected to remain about the same. 0- 0 Change in New Hanover County Labor Force by Age Group 1997 - 2010 (xl,000) Age Group 1997-2010 1997-2010 % Change 16-19 0.2 3% 20-29 4.5 21 °% 30-39 8.2 39% 40-49 8.2 39°% 50-59 3.9 25% 60+ 10.6 43°% U.S. Census data. Resident Civilian Labor Force; employed and unemployed. vu-' The data from the U.S. Census is pro,0ded in age year groups of 16 to 19, 20 to 24, 25 to 54, 55 to 64, and greater than or equal to 65. Notice that the ages between 25 to 54 were lumped together by the U.S. • Census. To facilitate comparison the data was converted to ten year increments. VII - 1 • New Hanover Co. Projected Labor Force Age Groups 1980-2010 40 •:i ■ 1990 ® 2000 % 2010 35 30 25 20 Age Group :. Trend. From 1997 to 2010, the County is projected to see. an increasingly aging workforce in the +60 age group, and the City is projected to see an large percent workforce increase in the 30 to 49 aoe Qroup. The following table, similar to the County, shows the percent increases in the Wilmington labor force by age group from 1997 to 2010.v11-2 Inspection reveals a projected comparatively large increase in the 30 to 49 age group to the year 2010. Comparison of this table with the preceding County table reveals that Wilmington is projected to have fewer persons in the above 60 age group, and a greater percent change in the 30 to 49 age group. Change in Wilmington Labor Force by Age Group 1997 - 2010 (x1,000) Age Group 1997-2010 1997-2010 % Change 16-19 1.2 26% 20-29 4.3 39% 30-39 5.8 62% 40-49 5.8 62% 50-59 1.9 28% 60+ 5.2 39% U.S. Census data. (Resident Civilian Labor Force; employed and unemployed) "11The data was reduced in the same manner as the previous table. This table excludes proposed annexation areas. VII-2 County Job Type Projections 1996-2010 The following table shows New Hanover County employment projections by job type from i 1996 to 2010. From 1990 to 1996 the following three job types decreased; agriculture, manufacturing, and transportation -communications -public utilities. The other five job types increased. The two largest increases were in the service and construction categories. It is debatable whether or not these trends will continue to the year 2010 and at what rates. The fourth column shows jobs as a percentage of 1996 County population. A projection by job type was done to the year 2010 with NC Office of State Planning population projections. The trend should only be used as rough estimates due to unforeseen future changes in the economy. N.H. County Projected Job Types 1996-2010 Change Jobs as a Trend Jobs as a per % of 1996 projection % of 2010 Job types 1990 1996 year population 2010 population Agriculture 303 270 -1.9% 0.2% 340 0.2% Manufacturing 9,500 8,590 -1.7% 6.0% 10,805 6.0% Construction 4,110 6,080 6.7% 4.2% 7,648 4.2% Transportation, communications, public utilities 3,620 3,590 -0.1 % 2.5% 4,516 2.5% Trade 18,250 22,880 3.8% 16.0% 28,780 16.0% Finance, insurance, real estate 2,470 3,100 3.9% 2.2% 3,899 2.2% Services 13,430 20,500 7.3% 14.3% 25,786 14.3% Government 11.340 12.950 2.2% 9.0% 16.289 9.0% Total and % average 63,023 77,960 3.6% 143,430 98,063 180,416 Trend. The 2010 projected top four most numerous jobs are in; Trade,. Service, Government, and Manufacturing. This trend should only. be used as a rough estimate due to unforeseen future changes in the economv. is • VII-3 r] County and City Jobs to Households Ratios Future jobs and household data in the following two tables was projected using the, exponential change equation (see appendix for details). The tables show that the New Hanover County ratios of jobs to households has decreased slightly from 1.30 and 1.26 between 1985 to 1995. While the City of Wilmington ratio decreased slightly from 1.08 and 1.07. Due to the small difference between the 1985 and 1995 ratios for the County as well as the City, future projections are of questionable accuracy and for this reason were not done. But for both the County and the City, the trend is a slight decrease in the ratio. This is likely due to the more numerous and smaller household sizes. Overall, New Hanover County between 1985 to 1995, had a higher number of jobs per household than the City, likely related to the lower County unemployment (see section page VI-1). New Hanover County Jobs to Households Ratios 1985 to 2010 projection (in 000's) (excluding unemployed) Jobs Households Jobs / Household Ratio 1985 55.5 42.6 1.30 1995 68.5 54.3 1.26 2000 76.0 61.3 - 2005 84.3 69.2 - 2010 93.5 78.1 - Source: Jobs: NO ESC; Households: U.S. Census Wilmington Jobs to Households Ratios 1986 to 2010 projection (in 000's) (excluding unemployed) Jobs Households Jobs / Household Ratio 1985 21.8 20.3 1.08 1995 29.4 27.4 1.07 2000 34.1 31.8 - 2005 39.5 37.0 - 2010 45.7 43.0 - Source: Jobs: NO ESC; Households: U.S. Census Trend. The County and City jobs to household ratios have slightly decreased from 1985 to 1995. The trend is for this to continue as the size of households decreases. In 1995 the ratios were 1-26 in the County and 1.07 in the City. The County has a higher. number of jobs per household than the City and this is probably related to the City's higher unemployment. VII-4 REFERENCES The following references are in addition to the references cited in the footnotes: NC ESC North Carolina Employment Security Commission BLS Bureau of Labor Statistics (Employment and Earnings) North Carolina Department of Commerce, Travel and Tourism Division New Han. Planning Dept. 1996. Construction Activity 1981-1996 Wilmington, NC. NC OSP North Carolina Office of State Planning • • R-1 0 .7 APPENDIX North Carolina Coastal Area Management Act Mandated Planning Requirements This economy report is one of the technical reports for the Wilmington -New Hanover Comprehensive Plan 1997-2010, and the Coastal Area Management Act (CAMA) Land Use Plan. In 1974 the North Carolina General Assembly required that 20 coastal counties of the state prepare land use plans. This plan provides a framework to guide local leaders with protection, preservation, orderly development and management of the North Carolina coastal area. Updates to the plan are required in five year intervals. In accordance with CAMA requirements, the land use plan consists of the following elements: summary of data collection and analysis; existing land use map; policy discussion; and a land classification map. This information serves an important role with local development regulations, such as zoning ordLarices, and it provides input for growth policy decisions. Text section III. Manufacturing and Nonmanufacturing Employment details Employment by type of industry in New Hanover County is characterized by the following table. Industry Employment - New Hanover County Number of Workers Category 1975 1995 Total Industry 36,570 73,790 Manufacturing Total 9,710 8,460 Nonmanufacturing Total 26,860 65,330 Percent of Total Industry Employment Total Industry 36,570 73,790 Manufacturing Total 26.6% 11.5°% Nonmanufacturing Total 73.4% 88.5°% Source: NCESC . The above table and the following figure on the next page show a significant trend away from manufacturing employment. Between 1975 and 1995, employment in the manufacturing sector decreased by 15% from 26% to 11%, while nonmanufacturing employment increased 15% from 73% to 88%. These trends show New Hanover County's continual shift to a more nonmanufacturing oriented economy. A-1 70,000 60,000 50,000 c 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0. New Hanover County Industry Employment Manufacturing -10 Non man ufactu ring MENEM 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 Year Manufacturing Details New Hanover County manufacturing employment is shown in the following table. Manufacturing employment Number of Workers Category 1975 1995 °% Change Manufacturing total 9,710 8,460 -13% Textiles 1,530 70 -95°% Apparel 760 540 -29% Lumber & wood 620 500 -19% Printing 290 570 97% Chemicals 1,480 2,350 59% Fabricated metals 3,310 220 -93% Machinery, nonelec. & elec. 720 810 13% Other manufacturing 1,000 3,400 240% Source: NCESC The above table and following figure show manufacturing employment trends between 1975 and 1995. Decreases are found in textiles, apparel, lumber and wood, and fabricated metals, while increases are found in printing, chemicals, machinery -nonelectric -electric, and other manufacturing.' The largest significant loss in numbers of workers was in textiles and fabricated metals, while the largest gain was in printing and chemicals. Overall manufacturing had a 13% decrease in employment in the two decades. 1 Other manufacturing: food, stone, clay glass, primary metals, paper, rubber, furniture, transportation, miscellaneous manufacturing and instruments. 01; • • A-2 New Hanover Count Manufacturing Employment Y 9 7.000 , —i—Textiles i ---i--Apparel 6.000 - -A-- - Lumber&Wood �--- /-\---------------------- X Printing I / \ 5,000 —X Chemicals _ 4 - _ - \ _ ------------------- - - i - -Fabricated Metals / \\ ---1 Machinery, Nonelec. & Elec \ ti 4'0°0 — — — Other Manufacturing' 3.000 - - - - --- - - - - - - - - - - / - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - c 2.000 - - - - - - - - ' - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 1,000 ---- - T--------- -------- 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 Year Nonmanufacturing Details Employment by type of nonmanufacturing in New Hanover County is characterized by the following table. . Nonmanufacturing employment. Number of Workers Category 1975 1995 % Change Nonmanufacturing total 26,860 65,330 143% Construction -98%; and mining -2% 1,720 5,620 227% Transportation, communications, public utilities 3,340 3,520 5% Trade 8,950 22,260 149% Finance, insurance, real estate 1,460 2,980 104% Service -98%; and miscellaneous -2% 4,630 18,160 292% Government 6,760 12,790 89% Source: NCESC • The above table and following figure show nonmanufacturing employment trends between 1975 and 1995. Every nonmanufacturing category saw an increase during the two decades with the two largest gains in terms of workers in trade (-13,000 new workers) and service and miscellaneous category2 (-13,000 new workers). 2 The miscellaneous portion of the service category includes: agricultural services, forestry and fishing. A3 New Hanover County Nonmanufacturing Employment 15,000�,� LL Y 10,000 5,000 ... . ..... X - - - - - X .... . X - - - .. X . ......... - . . 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 Year —Construction& Mining — -m — Transp., Comm., Pub. Util --�—Trade - - x - -Finance, Insur., Real Est. -- —Service & Miscellaneous' --s Government US and New Hanover County Employment Percentages - details Manufacturing The following manufacturing figure shows that in 1978 New Hanover County exceeded the US by percentage type of employment in five of eight categories. These were textiles, apparel, lumber and wood, chemicals, and fabricated metals. In 1978, the US exceeded the County in three categories which were printing, machinery, and the other" manufacturing category (see footnote 3 for the 'other" manufacturing composition). 9.0 8.0 7.0 0 60 i c w 50 � u 4.0 c I u 3.0 `m a 20 1978 us & New Hanover County Manufacturing Employment Percentages I H Q E 3 a` v i r �, Employment Category 2 A-4 • • A comparison of the 1978 manufacturing figure with the following 1995 manufacturing figure clearly shows two trends. Firstly, the US generally surpassed the County in terms of manufacturing during the 1978 to 1995 time period. By 1995, the US exceeded the County by percentage type of employment in six of eight categories. In only one category during 1995 did the County exceed the US and this was in chemicals, which was about the same as in 1978 for both the US and the County. The County decreased its percentage of employees from 1978 to 1995 in lumber and wood. By 1995, the percentage of employees were about equal for the US and the County in lumber and wood. The second trend between 1978 and 1995 is a clear decrease in manufacturing as an employment percentage in the US, and an even faster rate in the County. 9.0 � 6.0 7.0 T 0 6.0 j c w 5.0 q 4.0 C v 3.0 u i 2.0 1.0 0.0 1995 US & New Hanover County Manufacturing Employment Percentages ---' 0 U.S. --------------------------------- IG County --------------------------- - ------------------------------------------ V -- ------------------------------------------ ------------------------- -------- ------------------- d °a .S N W r C H Q E A Employment Category f Nonmanufacturing The following two nonmanufacturing figures show changes between 1978 and 1995 for the US and the County. In the County nonmanufacturing increased from 1978 to 1995 relative to the US in the construction, trade, and service categories. Between 1978 and 1995 the County decreased relative to the US in the following categories: transportation -communication -public utilities; and government. The percentage of employment was about the same for the US and the County from 1978 to 1995 in finance, insurance, and real estate. A small amount of the increase between 1978 and 1995 in the construction category and the service category is attributed to a new method of reporting the statistics.' Data is not available for the 1995 other nonmanufacturing category because this category from 1990 onwards was split up and folded into the construction and service categories. 3 In 1978 the other nonmanufacturing category was composed of: mining, agricultural services, forestry, and fishing. From 1990 onward: mining was moved to the construction category; and agricultural services, forestry, and fishing were moved to the service category. In the 1995 construction category: mining constituted approximately 2%, while construction constituted 98%. In the 1990 service category: agricultural services, forestry, and fishing constituted approximately 2% of the service category. A-5 1973 US & New Hanover County Nonmanufacturing Employment Percentages 3 EEF 3 j 5 W m i V G W T > W 9 tea' o C i g g iz i Employment Category Z 1995 US & New Hanover County I Nonmanufacturing Employment Percentages I 30 v 25 a a20 E W o, 15 A C u 10 a 5 0 2 aae ` E 7 V V d A m ai 4+ C W � N Employment Category Text section IV. County and U.S. Comparison, Shift Share details • Total Change 1990-1995 The total employment change is an overall indicator of how a local employment mix compares to the total national mix of employment and whether a local community is getting an increasing or decreasing competitive share of the employment types. Total change from 1990 to 1995 is calculated by the following. Total change 1 r.-90-95 = (U.S. growth + industrial mix + competitive share) = (1995 New Hanover Co. employment by category -1990 New Hanover employment by category) National Growth This indicator essentially answers the question, "How much would a given industry in a given locality have grown if the industry had the same proportion of employees in the local community's economy as existed in the national economy, and if the local industry had grown at the same rate as the industry at the national level?" As total US employment increases or decreases, a similar change is assumed to occur in each local New Hanover County employment category. National growth allocates a portion of New Hanover's local employment by category to the US trend. National growth is calculated by the following. National growth = (U.S. % change in total employment) x (1990 base year New Hanover Co. employment by category) Industrial Mixture The industrial mixture adjusts the national growth effect by acknowledging that the county proportion of employment in a given industry is not likely to equal the national proportion. The • A-6 . industrial mixture assumes that the local industry grows at the same rate as the national industry. The effect applies that growth rate to the county industrial mix. Industrial mixture is calculated by the following. Industrial structure = (U.S. % change in employment by category - U.S. % change in total employment) x (1990 base year New Hanover Co. employment by category) Industry mix represents the change in US employment for a specific employment type compared to the total change in the US employment. This determines whether the employment type is growing more rapidly or more slowly than the US growth rate for all employment type. This percentage is then multiplied by New Hanover County's base year (1990) employment to compute the number of jobs attributable to that employment's U.S. growth. A positive industrial mixture indicates that the employment category is growing faster than the average of all U.S. industries. A negative mixture indicates that the employment category is growing slower than the average of all U.S. industries. Competitive Edge The competitive edge adjustment to the national growth and industrial mixture accounts for the fact that growth rates in local employment may be different than national industry employment growth rates due to such factors as efficiency of local firms and attractiveness of living environment. Competitive edge is calculated by the following. Competitive edge = (New Hanover Co. % change by employment type - U.S. % change by employment type) x (1990 base year New Hanover Co. employment by category) • Competitive edge compares New Hanover County's position with that of the same employment in other parts of the US. If the percentage change for the local employment is less than the national change in that employment, some of the competitive share has been lost., A positive competitive share shows the number of jobs which have been added and indicates the local employment competitive increase. Competitive share provides local information for New Hanover County. Reasons for a loss in competitive share may include the following. - population increases or decreases affecting demand - technology improvements which decrease jobs while increasing production - changes in market demand due to imports at competitive prices - changes in market preferences for goods and services - increased transportation costs or poor access - increased labor costs - low profit margins prohibiting capital reinvestment - lack of available public facilities and services Text section VII. Employment Projection details The following table shows the regional employment in the three county area (New Hanover, Brunswick, and Pender) and Wilmington. From 1985 to 1997 New Hanover added approximately 16,000 new employees, and Brunswick and Pender combined added approximately 17,000. The City of Wilmington added over 9,000 new employees from 1985 to 1997. The City of Wilmington employees are within New Hanover County, and there was estimated in 1997 approximately 40,000 employees in unincorporated New Hanover County. In the three county area Brunswick has had the fastest growth at 5% over the last 12 years compared with 2% for New Hanover, 3% for Pender, and 3% for Wilmington. The faster growth rate for Brunswick is likely A-7 related to its smaller size. In 1997 New Hanover and Wilmington still dominate the area in terms of employee size with approximately 71,000 and 31,000 employees respectively. This is compared with 29,000 in Brunswick and 14,000 in Pender. Unincorporated New Hanover County employment was estimated by subtracting the City values from the County.4 Regional employment in the table is employed civilian labor force estimates by place of residence. The employment values do not include unemployment.5 Regional Employment 1985-1997 (x 1,0oo) Jurisdiction 1985 1995 1997 1985 to 1997 12 Year 12 yr. Annual change % Change Growth Rate New Hanover County 55.5 68.5 71.4 15.9 29% 2.1 °% Brunswick County 16.0 26.0 28.7 12.7 79% 5.00% Pender County 10.2 13.6 14.4 4.2 41 °% 2.9°% City of Wilmington 21.8 29.4 . 31.2 9.4 43°% 3.0°% Unincorporated New Han. Co. 33.7 39.1 40.2 6.5 19% 1.5°% (Total Jobs, Civilian Labor Force by Residence, excluding unemployed. From NC ESC) The following table shows the projected jobs from U.S. Census data in the three county area to the year 2010 with employed civilian labor force by residence. According to the projection, the total number of jobs in the three county area will increase from 115 thousand to 169 thousand between 1997 and 2010. The second sub -table shows in five year increments the change in jobs where 1990 to 1995 saw a slow down of job increase compared with the previous five years. Beyond 1995 the projection smoothes out the rate of increase with steady job gains. From 2005 to 2010 New Hanover will increase with a projected 9,200 new jobs, Brunswick with 11,700, and Pender 2,900. Jobs in the Three County Area • Total Jobs 1980 to 2010 Share of Total Three County Job Gain Year New Hanover Brunswick Pender Total Year New Hanover Brunswick Pender 1960 45,043 13,165 8,694 66,902 80-90 53% 32% 15% 1990 60,179 22,310 12,868 95,357 90-97 49% 36°% 15°% 1997 73,511 32.239 16,933 122,684 97-00 46% 39°% 15°% 2000 80,094 37,749 19,048 136,891 00-05 44°% 41 % 15% 2005 92,401 49,103 23,175 -164,678 05-10 42% 43°% 15% 2010 106,599 63,872 28,195 198,666 Change in Jobs Year New Hanover Brunswick Pender Total 80-90 15,136 9,145 4,174 28,455 90-97 13,332 9,929 4,065 27,327 97-00 6,583 5,510 2,114 14,207 CO-05 12,307 11,354 4,127 27,788 05-10 14,198 14,769 5,021 33,988 ° Between 1980 and 1990 the City annexed approximately 9,000 people which would artificially lower the 12 year annual growth rate for the unincorporated County and raise it for the City. 5 Kaiser, E. Godscha% D. and Chapin, F. "Urban Land Use Planning" 4th ed., 1995. University of Illinois Press, Urbana, IL. P t+n = Pt ( 1 + r) n Where: P ta.n = projected population size at a future year, n units of time beyond base year t. Pt = population in base year t. r = rate of growth per unit of time. n = the number of time periods beyond base year t. • A-8