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HomeMy WebLinkAbout19970722 Ver 1_Report_19980210 1 1 1 1 1 Z--/v- 9~ Randleman Lake rE~.us~~~~E ~ Nutrient Reduction Strategy ~`~ " '~. ; ~~; and ~ ~ ~- ' ~~ Implementation Plan ' ~. 1 ~~ ,, ;' ~ ~ x ~ February 1998 ~~ ~ ~ ~ i DRAFT ~~~ r ~ w~ Macow ~f++ ~ ~A1ff , she NicH iaNr ~:: wa,~. GA~f J~~ r1 ~ ~ 1 ~, .Y^ TOM , ^{M -OUIT ~~ c i t Cwff~ ~r~. R~CN1.~M `~ ~~ ~u'l~Cap COUNTr A,NOO~~y CO{INTr ~` ~RCMOALE ~'oao ~ 1I, ` t 4+~ ~r f~~ ~ ~• ~wo~~• 1 ~ MOIO.tfO RAMOLfYAN 1 ~'~~+~ LARf ., .~ ~ , ~ ~~ ''"' S wio~ati~M ~ ~ ~~ c~'^ ~, Piedmont Triad Regional Water Authority 1 Acknowledgments ' This Nutrient Reduction Strategy and Implementation Plan document was written and prepared for the Piedmont Triad Regional Water Authority (PTRWA) by Tetra Tech Inc. 4401 Building, Suite 200 79 Alexander Drive i'.O. Box 14409 RTP, NC 27709 ' in coo eration with Hazen & Sa er P.C. PTRWA also wishes to ex ress a reciation for the p wY P pp ' cooperation of its members, the Piedmont Triad Council of Governments, and other local jurisdictions within the proposed Randleman Lake watershed, in compiling data and information for this document and the strategy development process. ' Watershed nutrient loading models and the lake water quality model used to develop and evaluate the proposed Nutrient Reduction Strategy are summarized in separate documentation ' prepared by Tetra Tech Inc. t 1 1 Draft (February 1998) Table of Contents ' TABLE OF CONTENTS ' Acknowledgments ............................................................. i List of Figures ................................................................ v List of Tables ................................................................ vi EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ...................................................... ES-1 I. BAC KGROUND ............................. 1-1 1.1 ........................... PTRWA and the Proposed Randleman Lake 1-1 1.2 Need for a Nutrient Reduction Strategy .............................. . 1-5 1.3 Purposes of Strategy and Implementation Plan ........................ . 1-5 1.4 Components of the Strategy and Implementation Plan .................. . 1-5 2. NUTRIENT REDUCTION GOALS AND OBJECTIVES ............................ 2-1 2.1 Applicable Water Quality Standards ................................. 2-1 ' 2.2 2.3 General Discussion of Assimilative Capacity . : : :::::: : ::: : ::::::::::.. Point and Nonpoint Source Reduction Goals .. 2-1 2-4 2.3.1 Analysis of Existing Conditions .............................. 2-5 ' 2.3.2 Analysis of Future Conditions without Water Supply Protection .... 2-11 3. NUTRIENT REDUCTION STRATEGY ........................................ 3-1 ' 3.1 Point Source Nutrient Control Program ............................... 3-1 3.1.1 Enhanced Phosphorus Removal at High Point Eastside WWTP ...... 3-1 3.1.2 Potential for Control of Minor Dischargers ...................... 3-2 3.2 Nonpoint Source Control Program .................................. 3-3 3.2.1 Watershed Protection Ordinances ............................. 3-3 ' 3.2.2 Structural Controls on Loads ................................ 3.2.3 Non-structural Control on Loads ............................. 3-12 3-18 3.2.4 Education and Outreach Programs ............................ 3-26 3.3 3.2.5 Monitoring and Enforcement ...........................:::.. Summary and Evaluation of Proposed Nutrient Reduction Strategies .. 3-27 3-27 3.3.1 Point Source Controls ..................................... 3-28 ' 3.3.2 Estimated Effectiveness of Nonpoint Source Control Strategies :::.. 3.3.3 Net Load Reductions under Nutrient Reduction Strategy .. .. 3-28 3-30 3.3.4 Estimated Chlorophyll a Response with Nutrient Reduction Strategies ' ....................................................... 3-30 4. IMPLEMENTATION PLAN ................................................ 4-1 ' 4.1 Schedule for Implementation ....................................... 4-1 4.2 Monitoring Program .............................................. 4-2 ' Piedmont Triad Regional Water Authority iii t Randleman Lake Nutrient Reduction Strategy and Implementation Plan Draft (February 1998) 4.2.1 Tracking Implementation Activities ........................... 4-2 4.2.2 Tracking Environmental Effectiveness ......................... 4-3 4.3 Data Management ............................................... 4-6 4.4 Evaluating and Updating Strategy and Implementation Plan .............. 4-6 5. REFERENCES ......................................................... $-1 APPENDIX I. EXISTING POINT SOURCE NUTRIENT LOADS ........................ A-I-1 APPENDIX II. ESTIMATION OF FUTURE LAND USE CONDITIONS ................... A-II-1 iv Piedmont Triad Regional Water Authority John_D From: Sent: To: Subject: Jimmie Overton [jimmieC~dem.ehnr.state.nc.us] Wednesday, February 11, 1998 1:21 PM john dorney; tarry ausley Fwd: Randleman Subject: Randleman Sent: 2/11/98 6:12 PM Received: 2/11/98 5:09 PM From: coleen sullens, coleenC~dem.ehnr.state.nc.us To: beth~dem.ehnr.state.nc.us boyd ~ dem.ehnr.state.nc. us dennis~dem.ehnr.state.nc.us Greg Thorpe, gregC~4dem.ehnr.state.nc.us Jason C~dem.ehnr.state.nc.us lisa ~ dem.ehnr.state.nc.us michelle~dem.ehnr.s CC: Steve_Mauney~WSRO.ENR.State.NC.US bradley~ dem.ehnr.state.nc.us jimmie~dem.ehnr.state.nc.us jay sauber ,jay C~dem.ehnr.state.nc.us Randleman -plan to take to WOC in March (Steve Z is working on a schedule), we need to go through document in detail to determine what it says will be done to control nutrients, how it compares to other strategies, are there additional controls they could propose (as I have heard, it does still indicate they will violate the chlorophyll a standard), determine if it is possible to meet the standard -take that analysis and lay it before the EMC for their decision. Boyd will be the person organizing the review of the document. Copies have been sent to everyone (also to the agencies who have commented on various parts of the proposal in the past - DEH, DWR, WRC, DWM). Comments need to be back by FEBRUARY 23rd. In order to get it before the WQC by March, time will be needed to evaluate everyone's comments. Therefore, the sooner you can get the comments in the better. This has been identified as a high priority. Steve -Larry has WSRO's copy of the document. If anyone notices I have missed someone on the message, please let me know. Coleen t Draft (February 1998) Table of Contents LIST OF FIGURES ' Figure 1. Location of Proposed Randleman Lake ................................... 1-2 Figure 2. Randleman Lake Watershed ............................................ 1-3 ' Figure 3. Randleman Lake Watershed Model Segmentation .......................... 2-3 Figure 4. Randleman Lake Watershed High Growth Areas for Year 2025 ............... 2-13 ' Figure 5. Annual Phosphorus Loads from High Point Eastside Vv WTP ................. 3-2 Figure 6. Existing Water Supply Watersheds in the Randleman Lake Watershed .......... 3-5 Figure 7. Existing and Projected 2025+ Land Use for Randleman Lake Watershed ....... 3-11 Figure 8. Location of Regional Detention Ponds ................................... 3-13 Figure 9. Location of Proposed Constructed/Enhanced Wetlands ..................... 3-16 Figure 10. Future Nonpoint Source Phosphorus Loads with and without Watershed Protection Ordinances ................................................. 3-28 ' Figure 11. Locations of Proposed Monitoring Sites ................................. 4-5 Figure A-1. Sewered Areas and Soils with Poor Suitability for Onsite Wastewater Disposal in the Guilford County Portion of the Randleman Lake Watershed ............ A-II-4 Piedmont Triad Regional Water Authority v Randleman Lake Nutrient Reduction Strategy and Implementation Plan Draft (February 1998) LIST OF TABLES Table 1. Jurisdictional Composition of Proposed Randleman Lake Watershed (acres and percent of land surface) Including Municipal Extra-Territorial Jurisdictions ........ 1-4 Table 2. Nutrient Export Rate Estimates ......................................... 2-6 Table 3. Estimated Existing Land Use by Sub-Watershed (acres) ...................... 2-7 Table 4. Estimated Nutrient Loads by Lake Segment (kg/yr) for Existing Conditions with WWTP at 10.5 MGD, 4 mg/1 Total Phosphorus, and 20 mg/1 Total Nitrogen ....... 2-8 Table 5. Chlorophyll a Predictions for Existing Conditions .......................... 2-9 Table 6. Estimated Future Land Use by Sub-Watershed (acres), without new WS Ordinances ................................................................... 2-15 Table 7. Estimated Nutrient Loads by Lake Segment (kg/yr) for Future Conditions, without Nutrient Reduction Strategy, WWTP at 26 MGD, 1 mg/1 Total Phosphorus, and 6 mg/1 Total Nitrogen ......... 2-16 Table 8. Chlorophyll a Predictions for Future Conditions, without Nutrient Reduction Strategy ...................................... 2-16 Table 9. Future High Point Eastside WWTP Nutrient Loads (kg/yr) .................... 3-2 Table 10. Existing Watershed Overlay Districts for Randleman Lake Watershed........... 3-6 Table 11. Limits to Development Density in Water Supply Protection Ordinances ......... 3-8 Table 12. Estimated Future Land Use by Sub-Watershed (acres) with Water Supply Protection Ordinances ................................................. 3-10 Table 13. Estimated Reduction in Nonpoint Nutrient Loads by Lake Segment (kg/yr) Achieved by New Water Supply Protection Ordinances for Future Land Use Conditions .......................................................... 3-11 Table 14. Proposed Constructed /Enhanced Wetlands ............................. 3-15 Table 15. Stormwater Controls Required by Water Supply Protection Ordinances ........ 3-19 Table 16. Primary Resource Concerns Addressed by Agricultural Soil Erosion Control Plans ........................................................ 3-20 Table 17. Estimated Reduction in Nonpoint Nutrient Loads by Lake Segment (kg/yr) Achieved by Enhanced BMP Implementation on Crop Land for Future Land Use Conditions .......................................................... 3-21 Table 18. Stream Buffer Requirements in Water Supply Protection Ordinances .......... 3-22 Table 19. Factors Determining Suitability for Septic Systems ........................ 3-25 ~~ Piedmont Triad Regional Water Authority Draft (February 1998) Table of Contents 1 Table 20. Estimated Nutrient Loads by Lake Segment (kglyr) for Future Conditions, with Nutrient Reduction Strategy, WWTP at 0.2 mg/1 Total Phosphorus and 6 mg/1 Total Nitrogen ................................................. . 3-29 Table 21. Chlorophyll a Predictions for Future Conditions with Nutrient Reduction Strategy and WWTP at 26 MGD and 0.2 mg/1 Total Phosphorus ............... . 3-31 Table 22. Schedule for Implementation of Management Actions .................... .. 4-1 ' Table 23. Proposed Programmatic Indicators to Track Plan Implementation ........... .. 4-2 Table 24. Proposed Environmental Indicators to Track Plan Implementation ........... .. 4-3 ' Table A-1. Domestic Type Dischargers in Randleman Lake Watershed ............... .. 6-2 Table A-2. Transfer Matrix for Calculating Potential Future Guilford Co. Land Use Based ' On 2025 Projections ................................................. A-II-S 1 Piedmont Triad Regional Water Authority vii 1 1 Draft (February 1998) Execzetive Summary EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Background and Purpose The Piedmont Triad Regional Water Authority (PTRWA) plans to build Randleman Lake as a safe and dependable water supply for the North Carolina Piedmont Triad Region. The impoundment, expected to satisfy water demands for the next 50 years, will have a surface area of 3,230 acres (at normal pool) in G~.~~~forc? and Randolph Counties and will fall within sub-basin 03-06-08 of the Upper Cape Fear River Basin. The Randleman Lake watershed (450 km2; 110,930 acres) will include parts of nine local jurisdictions-Forsyth, Guilford, and Randolph counties, and the cities of Archdale, Greensboro, High Point, Jamestown, Kernersville, and Randleman. Because of the proposed lake's location downstream of the region's most rapidly urbanizing area, existing and future sources of pollution could threaten water quality of the lake. Although the majority of the lake is projected to meet water quality standards, modeling studies indicate that nutrients from existing and proposed wastewater discharges and nonpoint sources will cause an overabundance of algae growth and pose difficulty in meeting the state's related chlorophyll a standard in the upper reaches of the lake. The purpose of this Nutrient Reduction Strategy and Implementation Plan is to establish a set of goals and a management plan of action to achieve and maintain adequate water quality in the proposed reservoir. Nutrient Reduction Goals and Objectives The following water quality goals have been established based on North Carolina water quality standards and U.S. Environmental Protection Agency recommendations: 1) Attain a lakewide areal average chlorophyll a concentration of less than 25 µg/1. 2) Meet an average chlorophyll a concentration of less than 15 µg/1 at the water supply intake. 3) Do not exceed 40 µg/1 chlorophyll a more than 5% of the growing season in any segment of the lake. Modeling studies indicate that goals 1 and 2 can be met under both existing and projected future nutrient loading conditions without a nutrient reduction strategy. The third goal cannot be met in some segments of the lake under existing and projected future nutrient loading conditions. Nutrient reduction goals and objectives are therefore driven by the third water quality goal. Nutrient loading capacity (i.e., the maximum amount of nutrient loading that can be assimilated by a waterbody and still allow the waterbody to meet water quality standards) varies by lake segment and flow conditions. The upper segment of the Deep River arm of Randleman Lake is projected to be the most sensitive to nutrient loading. To meet the third water quality goal in this Piedmont Triad Regional Water Authority ES-1 Randleman Lake Nutrient Reduction Strategy and Implementation Plan Draft (February 1998) lake segment, total phosphorus loading would need to be reduced to 2,880 kg during a high flow year, 1,800 kg during an average flow year, and only 600 kg during a low flow year based on water quality modeling analysis. For the upper segment of the Muddy Creek arm of Randleman Lake, the total phosphorus loading capacity is estimated to be 2,290 kg/yr under high flow conditions, 1,700 kg/yr under average flow conditions, and 780 kg/yr under low flow conditions. Existing phosphorus loading to the upper segment of the Deep River arm is estimated to be about 60,700 kg during a low flow year, 63,600 kg during an average flow year, and 66,150 kg during a high flow year. Approximately 58,000 kg/yr of these estimated loads is attributed to the discharge from the High Point Eastside Wastewater Treatment Plant (WWTP). To meet the loading targets in the upper segment, therefore, total phosphorus loading would need to be reduced from existing loading levels by 60,100 kg during a low flow year, 61,800 kg during an average flow year, and 63,860 kg during a high flow year. For the Muddy Creels arm, existing total phosphorus loading is estimated to be about 800 kg during a low flow year, 1,700 kg during an average flow year, and 2,730 kg during a high flow year. To meet the loading targets in the Muddy Creek arm, total phosphorus loading must be reduced from existing loading levels by 20 kg during a low flow year, 0 kg during an average flow year, and 440 kg during a high flow year. These nutrient reduction goals are summarized in the table below. Total Phosphorus Nutrient Loading Reductions Goals for the Randleman Lake Watershed Randleman Lake Segment TP Reduction TP Reduction TP Reduction Goal for Goal for Goal for Low Flow Year Average Flow High Flow Year (kg) Year (kg) (kg) Upper segment of Deep River 60,100 61,800 63,860 Lake arm Upper segment of Muddy 20 0 440 Creek Lake arm Full achievement of the nutrient reduction goals for the upper segment of the Deep River arm is not feasible at this time because of technological, economic, and environmental constraints on reducing phosphorus loading from the High Point Eastside WWTP. Under an assumption that half of the phosphorus load at loading capacity is attributable to nonpoint sources, the WWTP would need to achieve an effluent concentration of 0.020 mg/1 total phosphorus to meet the loading capacity during low flow conditions and 0.060 mg/1 during average flow conditions for the current WWTP discharge of 10.5 MGD. For expected buildout capacity flow from the WWTP of 26 MGD, concentrations would need to be reduced to 0.008 mg/1 during a low flow year and 0.025 mg/1 during an average flow year to meet the loading capacity. Even if all of the point source loading were removed, however, achieving the reduction goals for nonpoint sources would prove to be a formidable challenge. The initial objectives of this Nutrient Reduction Strategy have therefore been set to make substantial progress toward these goals, with the hope ES-2 Piedmont Triad Regional Water Authority 1 t 1 A t 1 Draft (February 1998) Executive Summary of moving even closer or attaining the goals in the future as technology improves and constraints are removed or reduced. Achieving the reduction goals in Muddy Creek is feasible at present, but significant increases in development density by 2025 could pose a substantial challenge to meeting the goals in the future. Initial Management Objectives for the Nutrient Reduction Strategy Reduce point source loadings to the maximum extent feasible by connecting minor facilities into the major municipal systems within the region and by reducing the High Point Eastside WWTP total phosphorus concentration to the limits of technology and as environmentally and economically feasible. Implement nonpoint source nutrient loading controls in accordance with North Carolina Water Supply Watershed Protection Rules and Regulations (NCGS 143-214.5 and 15A NCAC 2B.0100 and .0200) to protect the water supply and prevent additional degradation of water quality in the upper tributary segments of the reservoir. Summary of Nutrient Reduction Strategy The Nutrient Reduction Strategy is divided into two program areas, control of point source nutrient loads and control of nonpoint source nutrient loads. Control of Point Source Nutrient Loads An expansion and upgrade of the High Point Eastside WWTP is currently underway, and is expected to be online by July 2001. Initial plans for the 26-MGD facility called for meeting effluent concentrations of 1 mg/1 total phosphorus and 6 mg11 total nitrogen. Under this first phase of the Nutrient Reduction Strategy, PTRWA will work with the City of High Point to achieve the environmentally sound limits of technology for phosphorus removal. The initial goal is to achieve an effluent concentration of 0.2 mg/1 total phosphorus. PTRWA will provide a financial incentive to the City of High Point to ensure meeting the goal on a consistent basis. Additionally, PTRWA has identified two minor wastewater discharges that will be connected to municipal WWTPs. PTRWA will also work with local utilities and the Division of Water Quality to pursue connection of other minor facilities to the larger municipal sewer systems. Combined, these actions should result in a reduction of approximately 51,750 kg/yr total phosphorus (TP) and 78,200 kg/yr total nitrogen (TN). This constitutes more than 80 percent of the phosphorus reduction goals for low and average flow years (see summary table below). Piedmont Triad Regional Water Authority ES-3 t Randleman Lake Nutrient Reduction Strate~ry and Implementation Plan Draft (February 1998) Total Phosphorus (TP) Reductions from First Phase Point Source Control Strategies Proposed Action Achieved TP Percent of TP Reduction (kg/yr) Reduction Goal Meet 0.2 mg/1 TP in effluent of 26 MGD 50,850 85% -low flow yr High Point Eastside WWTP 82% -average flow yr Connect two minor discharges to 910 < 1% -low flow yr municipal sewer systems < 1 % -average flow yr TOTAL 51,760 86% -low flow yr 84% -average flow yr Control of Nonpoint Source Nutrient Loads Whereas significant reductions in point source loading can be achieved through improvements in phosphorus removal technologies, total nonpoint source nutrient loading is expected to increase over existing levels-even with significant management practices implemented-because of anticipated development within the watershed and conversion of forested land to residential and commercial use. Without a nutrient reduction strategy, nonpoint source loading of total phosphorus in the year 2025 would be expected to increase from existing conditions by approximately 14,100 kg in a low flow year, 20,740 kg in an average flow year, and 32,040 kg in a high flow year. Although implementing nonpoint source controls will help minimize loading increases, such controls are not expected to reduce loadings below existing levels. The Nutrient Reduction Strategy for nonpoint sources has five major components: ^ Water supply protection ordinances ^ Structural controls on loads (e.g., regional stormwater ponds, constructed wetlands) ^ Nonstructural controls on loads (e.g., best management practices) ^ Education and outreach programs ^ Monitoring and enforcement WATER SUPPLY PROTECTION ORDINANCES Seven jurisdictions have area in the watershed that drains directly to the proposed Randleman Lake and not to the upstream water supply watersheds (Oakdale, City Lake, and Oak Hollow Lake) for which ordinances are already in place. PTRWA is working closely with each of these jurisdictions to encourage adoption of ordinances that will help protect Randleman Lake. Guilford County, Randolph County, Greensboro, and Randleman have all adopted water supply protection ordinances for the proposed Randleman Lake that are more stringent than required under the state's minimum guidelines for a WS-IV classification (the anticipated classification for Randleman Lake). High Point, Jamestown, and Archdale will also adopt ordinances by law assuming Randleman Lake is built and classified for water supply use. These ordinances will exceed State standards for WS-IV and will include restrictions on housing density, limits on ES-4 Piedmont Triad Regional Water Authority 1 Draft (February 1998) Executive Summary impervious area for development, requirements regarding buffers along streams and stormwater controls for higher density development, and other means of reducing potential contamination of the water supply. Estimated reductions in nonpoint nutrient loads from future (2025) land use conditions are summarized in the table below. Estimated Reduction in Nonpoint Nutrient Loads to Randleman Lake for Future Land Use Conditions (2025) Achie~~ed by NPw Water Supply Protection Ordinances Flow Condition Phosphorus Reduction (kg/yr) Nitrogen Reduction (kg/yr) Low flow year 5,130 (22%) 36,330 (18%) Average flow year 6,250 (16%) 36,800 (10%) High flow year 9,870 (16%) 57,920 (10%) For the upper Deep River segment of the lake, the water supply ordinances provide a total phosphorus load reduction of approximately 1,900 kg/yr under an average flow condition-3 percent of the needed reductions from future loading conditions to meet water quality goals in this segment. STRUCTURAL CONTROLS ON LOADS Urban and development stormwater controls are assumed to be covered under the Water Supply Watershed Protection Ordinances. However, the City of High Point plans to construct a fifth regional stormwater pond in the watershed along the West Fork of the Deep River at the outermost reach of Oak Hollow Lake. (The four existing structures have already been accounted for in loading estimates.) The Skeet Club Road facility will provide an estimated loading reduction of 1,280 kg/yr total phosphorus, and 6,600 kg/yr of total nitrogen under average flow conditions. Net reduction in loading to Randleman Lake will be somewhat less, however, ~.~ because of assimilation of nutrients within Oak Hollow Lake and City Lake. ~ ~ Q s Six constructed/enhanced wetland areas will be created under the strategy. Th ites will either be constructed directly by PTRWA or by the State under the W oration Enhancement Program (WREP) if the Authority elects to pay into this we and ba hese sites will be developed directly by PTRWA or by the State using funds pa y PTRWA into the State mitigation bank. The primary purpose of the new wetlands is for mitigation of impacts on. existing wetlands caused by impoundment of Randleman Lake, but the wetlands will also provide a water quality benefit. The estimated load reductions under average flow conditions from the projects combined are 890 kg/yr total phosphorus and 15,620 kg/yr total nitrogen. Piedmont Triad Regional Water Authority ES-5 Randleman Lake Nutrient Reduction Strategy and Implementation Plan Draft (February 1998) NnNSTRU('TURAL CONTROLS ON LOADS ' The Natural Resources Conservation Service (MRCS) estimates the current rate of best management practice (BMP) implementation on active agricultural cropland within the watershed to be near 90 percent. NRCS believes incentives are such that 100 percent implementation in the future is a realistic goal because area in cropland is expected to decline sharply in the watershed. However, only a small net reduction in nutrient load could be expected-approximately 150 kg total phosphorus and 420 kg total nitrogen during a low flow year; 330 kg total phosphorus and 900 kg total nitrogen during an average flow year; and 600 kg total phosphorus and 1,600 kg total nitrogen during a high flow year. There are only three animal operations within the watershed, and therefore an explicit estimate of nutrient load reduction due to animal waste management has not been included. Waste management plans are, however, important to ensure that these farms do not become a source of excessive nutrient loads. Under 15A NCAC 2H .0200, concentrated animal operations of significant size must have an animal waste management system to receive certification under a general permit. Other meaningful nonstructural management programs include stream buffer and setback requirements (covered by Water Supply Protection Ordinances), site development standards, ' erosion and sediment ordinances, and onsite wastewater disposal requirements. Although these management programs are not credited with additional nutrient reduction, they nonetheless represent proactive steps in preventing nutrient loads from exceeding those estimated from , export coefficients. EDUCATION AND OUTREACH PROGRAMS PTRWA will work with its members and other jurisdictions in the watershed to conduct education and outreach on the importance of public pollution prevention measures in helping to , achieve nutrient reduction goals in the Randleman Lake watershed. Existing means, such as conservation district outreach programs and Greensboro's storm water management outreach will be used as a foundation for this strategy component. PTRWA will provide ram ro , , p g information to outreach programs summarizing the goals of the Nutrient Reduction Strategy and the responsibilities of the public in helping achieve the goals. ' MONITORING AND ENFORCEMENT Monitoring and enforcement is an important part of the Nutrient Reduction Strategy. This component helps ensure that the load reductions estimated for many of the proposed management controls will actually be achieved. Enforcement Officers, such as those employed by the City of High Point under its Development Ordinance, ensure that development activities comply with ordinance provisions. Use of civil and criminal penalties provides an extra incentive for compliance with requirements. ES-6 Piedmont Triad Regional Water Authority Draft (February 1998) Executive Summary ' Summary and Evaluation of Proposed Nutrient Reduction Strategy The projected effectiveness of all of the nonpoint source nutrient controls combined is displayed in the table below. t 1 1 1 Effectiveness of Nutrient Reduction Strategy in Minimizing Future Nonpoint Source Loads Load Description Low Flow Year High Flow Year Average Flow Year ' TP (kg) TN (kg) TP (kg) TN (kg) TP (kg) TN (kg) Estimated total existing 8,890 96,540 29,680 375,220 18,900 243,870 nonpoint source loads Total future nonpoint source 22,990 203,470 61,720 589,150 39,640 386,190 loads without Nutrient Reduction Strategy Total future nonpoint source 16,460 158,390 49,520 513,810 31,640 336,950 loads with Nutrient Reduction Strategy Net reduction for future 6,530 45,080 12,200 75,340 8,000 49,240 nonpoint source loads from implementing Strategy (28%) (22%) (20%) (13%) (20%) (13%) Net Load Reductions in Critical Lake Segments Under Nutrient Reduction Strategy Combining the point and nonpoint loading estimates, the proposed Nutrient Reduction Strategy is expected to result in a decrease from existing loading to the upper Deep River segment of Randleman Lake of 48,340 kg total phosphorus (78 percent of the nutrient reduction goal) during an average flow year. The corresponding reduction in total nitrogen loading for the upper Deep River Segment is 58,180 kg. These figures, and loading figures for low and high flow years, are summarized in the table below. Net Nutrient Load Reductions in Critical Upper Deep River Segment of Randleman Lake [percent of reduction goal shown in brackets below reduction estimates] Low Flow Year High Flow Year Average Flow Year TP (kg) TN (kg) TP (kg) TN (kg) TP (kg) TN (kg) 49,370 64,760 47,090 50,390 48,340 58,180 [82%] [74%] [78%] Piedmont Triad Regional Water Authority ES-7 1 ,~` ~' ~h i ~~ ~~~~ Randleman Lake Nutrient Reduction Strategy and Implementation Plan Draft (February 1998) Loading in the upper Muddy Creek segment is expected to increase, although the Nutrient Reduction Strategy decreases loadings from what they would expected to be in the future without the nonpoint source management strategies. Net Nutrient Load Change in Upper Muddy Creek Segment of Randleman Lake Scenario Description Low Flow Year High Flow Year Average Flow Year TP (kg) TN (kg) TP (kg) TN (kg) TP (kg) TN (kg) Existing load 800 12,000 2,730 47,210 1,690 29,580 Future load w't t Nutrient 4,150 35,460 10,220 90,160 6,400 58,220 Reduction Strategy Future load wit Nutrient 2,530 26,320 7,280 76,400 4,460 48,970 Reduction Strategy Net increase from existing 1,730 14,320 4,550 29,190 2,770 19,390 load w~'tlt Nutrient Reduction (216%) (119%) (166%) (62%) (164%) (66%) Strategy Net reduction from future 1,620 9,140 2,940 13,760 1,940 9,250 load wi Nutrient Reduction (39%) (26%) (29%) (15%) (30%) (16%) Strategy Estimated Chlorophyll a Response with Nutrient Reduction Strategy Substantial reductions in nutrient loading can be achieved through the first phase of the Nutrient Reduction Strategy. Ultimate loading levels necessary to meet all water quality goals, however, cannot yet be achieved because of technological constraints on WWTP nutrient removal. Although chlorophyll a concentration goals are expected to be achieved for the lakewide average and at the water supply intake, concentrations in the upper segments of the lake tributary arms are still expected to exceed the 40 µg/1 criterion more than 5 percent of the days during the algae growing season. Chlorophyll a predictions under estimated loading conditions that reflect the Nutrient Reduction Strategy are presented in the table on the next page. Although the percent reductions in nutrient loading to the upper Deep River arm are relatively high (e.g., 74-82 percent of goal), the response in chlorophyll a concentration is not as great because this lake segment--dominated by effluent flow-responds more to the concentration of the effluent than to the total loading. Progress toward reaching the goal of exceeding 40 µg/1 less than 5 percent of the time will only be achieved only when WWTP phosphorus removal technology is improved and an effluent concentration of 0.008-0.025 mg/1 is achievable for the High Point Eastside WWTP. ~ ~. ES-8 Piedmont Triad Regional Water Authority t 1 1 Draft (February 1998) Executive Summary i 1 1 Randleman Lake Chlorophyll a Predictions for Future Conditions with Nutrient Reduction Strategy [gray-shaded rows provide comparative information for upper segments] Lake Segment Low Flow Year High Flow Year Average Flow Year Chl a Percent Clii a Percent Chl a Percent (µg/l) of time (µg11) of time (µg/1) of time > 40 µg/1 > 40 µg/1 > 40 µg/1 Lakewide average 20 NA 19 NA 19 NA Water supply intake 12 1 % 12 1 % 12 1.0% segment Upper Deep River arm.- 117' 94% 83 84% 95 89% exi ti nutrient loading conditions Upper Deep Riverarm- 95 89% 71 76% 80 83% future. without Nutrient Reduction Strategy Upper Deep River arm- 81 83% 61 67% 67 73% future with Nutrient Reduction Strategy Upper Muddy Creek 19 5% 20 7% 17 5% arm existing nutrient loading conditions Upper Muddy Creek 28 18% 28 L8% 28 18% arm- future. wit ut Nutrient Reduction 'Strategy Upper Muddy Creek arm- 26 14% 26 16% 2.6 14% future with Nutrient Reduction Strategy Piedmont Triad Regional Water Authority ES-9 1 Randleman Lake Nutrient Reduction Strategy and Implementation Plan Draft (February 1998) Implementation Plan Summary PTRWA will work with its members to implement the Strategy, monitor progress and effectiveness, and adapt the Strategy-based management actions as needed to reach interim and long-term reduction goals. Schedule Management plan administration will be set up within 6 months of plan approval by the ' Environmental Management Commission (EMC), and protocols and means for data collection, information management, and assessment will be established within 12-18 months of EMC plan ' approval. Reduction of the High Point Eastside WWTP effluent TP concentration to 0.2 mg/1 is scheduled ' for July, 2001. Completion of the six wetlands projects is expected before filling of the reservoir. Many of the watershed protection ordinances are already in place, and the remaining jurisdictions will act quickly following reclassification ofthe waters for water supply. Actions such as education and outreach, and ordinance enforcement will be conducted on an ongoing basis. PTRWA plans to reevaluate the Nutrient Reduction Strategy and Implementation Plan within ' 3-5 years of filling the reservoir, and every 5 years thereafter, coordinated with the Division of Water Quality (DWQ)'s 5-year management cycle for the Cape Fear River Basin. An annual progress report will be prepared for the Authority's Board and copied to DWQ within the first 3-6 months of the end of each calendar year. onitorin Pro ram , M g g The PTRWA monitoring program will track both programmatic and environmental indicators to evaluate performance. Monitoring programmatic indicators of plan implementation will help to ensure that proposed actions are completed, and will provide the Authority with information that , is key to analyzing the effectiveness of management actions. Proposed programmatic indicators include the following ^ t i i t ti Pl Ad t f Mil d on se up m n s ra or an a es estone ^ Date High Point Eastside enhanced treatment process comes on line ^ Dates projects are completed (constructed wetlands, regional stormwater ponds) ^ Date by which all local ordinances for water supply watershed protection are in place ^ Dates of revisions to watershed protection ordinances by individual jurisdictions ^ Dates environmental monitoring is performed ^ Annual progress reports ^ Dates of strategy and plan reevaluation amendment r ES-10 Piedmont Triad Regional Water Authority Draft (February 1998) Executive Summary Monitoring environmental impacts of plan implementation will allow PTRWA to gauge the overall effectiveness of the Nutrient Reduction Strategy and Implementation Plan. Environmental indicators to be tracked include the following: ^ Annual point source TP and TN loads ^ Annual nonpoint source TP and TN loads ^ Tributary water quality (TP, orthophosphate, total inorganic nitrogen, total organic ' nitrogen) ^ Lake water quality (same as tributary plus chlorophyll a, temperature, pH, Secchi depth, and dissolved oxygen) ^ Downstream Deep River water quality (same as upstream tributary parameters) A Baseline monitoring will be conducted prior to impoundment of the reservoir, and a full monitoring program will begin after reservoir impoundment. Data Management PTRWA will develop and maintain computerized databases to track all programmatic and environmental indicator results. A metadata file on all data coverages will be maintained. PTRWA members will be advised regarding formats and protocols for transferring data and will be responsible for adhering to quality assurance/quality control (QA/QC) and other protocols. Evaluating and Updating Strategy and Implementation Plan PTTRWA will conduct annual evaluations will be conducted by to determine progress made in implementing the plan and achieving strategy goals. An annual progress report will be prepared for the Authority's Board, and copied to DWQ within 3-6 months of the end of each calendar ' year. The report will include estimates of point and nonpoint source loadings for the previous year, as well as summaries of tributary and inlake water quality conditions. In each succeeding year, the reports will include comparisons to loading rates and water quality conditions from previous years' monitoring. The PTRWA Board will be responsible for periodically updating the Nutrient Reduction Strategy ' and Implementation Plan. The first update is scheduled for 3-5 years from the date of impoundment of Randleman Lake. PTRWA anticipates that the new reservoir will take at least 2-3 years to stabilize with regard to water quality, based on reviewing study results from other large impoundments in the Piedmont area. Therefore, the Authority will need to be careful not to place too much emphasis on the intake water quality monitoring data during those first 2-3 years when evaluating the effectiveness of the initial plan. A decision on a more specific due date for the plan update will not be made until after the first 2-3 years of data have been analyzed and evaluated. i Piedmont Triad Regional Water Authority ES-11 1 i 1 Draft (February 1998) Section 1 -Background 1. BACKGROUND 1.1 PTRWA and the Proposed Randleman Lake This Nutrient Reduction Strategy and Implementation Plan is being developed by the Piedmont Triad Regional Water Authority (PTRWA), in cooperation with the Nortli Carolina ' Environmental Management Commission (EMC) and the NCDENR Division of Water Quality (DWQ). PTRWA is comprised of the governmen±s of Randolph County ;end the municipalities of Greensboro, High Point, Jamestown, Archdale, and Randleman. Archdale and Randleman are located in Randolph County, while the other three municipalities are located in adjacent Guilford County. PTRWA was formed in 1986 for the purpose of identifying, evaluating, and developing long-term water supply alternatives for member governments. PTRWA plans to develop a safe and dependable water supply for North Carolina Piedmont Triad region that will satisfy estimated water demands for a planning period of approximately 50 years. The Piedmont Triad Region is one of the faster growing areas in North Carolina, adding an average 14,900 people and 14,100 jobs per year over the last decade (personal communication, State Demographer, NC Office of State Planning to Andrea Spangler, PTRWA, 1/5/98). Projections show the regions adding 273,400 people over the next 25 years. Based upon expected regional growth in water demand, water shortages are predicted to occur shortly after the turn of the century. While water conservation may reduce the rate of demand increase, continued regional growth is expected to lead to more water consumption and more severe shortages in the future. PTRWA seeks to establish a water supply to provide an additional safe yield of approximately 48 MGD to meet its projected needs through the year 2050. An adequate water supply is necessary to support continued growth and economic vitality of the region. To meet the growing demand for water, PTRWA has proposed building Randleman Lake. This public investment of 123 million dollars would augment the region's water supply with an allocation of 48 million gallons per day to meet projected demands. The proposed Randleman Lake will be formed as an impoundment of the Deep River just north of Randleman, in Randolph Co., NC (Figure 1). The proposed impoundment will have a surface area of 3,230 acres (at normal pool) in Randolph and Guilford Counties, and will fall within the state's sub-basin 03-06- , 08 of the Upper Cape Fear River Basin. The normal water surface elevation of the reservoir would be 682 feet above mean sea level (msl), with a minimum water surface elevation of 635 msl. At the normal surface elevation the reservoir would have a storage volume of 18.3 billion gallons, and an estimated safe yield of 54 million gallons per day (MGD) (Black & Veatch, 1990). The reservoir will contain two major arms, one formed along the Deep River and the ' other formed along Muddy Creek. Total watershed area draining to Randleman Lake will be 427 km2 (105,294 acres) exclusive of lake surface, lying in Randolph, Guilford, and Forsyth Counties (Figure 2). Three water supply watersheds are located upstream of Randleman Lake: Oakdale, City Lake (High Point Lake), and Piedmont Triad Regional Water Authority 1-1 1 Randleman Lake Nutrient Reduction Strategy and Implementation Plan Draft (February 1998) LEGEND ~ Proposed Randleman Lake ~ Randleman Lake Watershed (~ County Boundaries Location of Proposed Randleman Lake 10 15 20 Mles Figure 1. Location of Proposed Randleman Lake Oak Hollow Lake Watersheds, all classified by the state as WS-IV. The Oakdale Watershed, located above the Oakdale mill run-of--the-river dam on the Deep River below High Point Lake, was the former water supply for the City of Jamestown, but is no longer used for this purpose. High Point Lake (City Lake) is an impoundment on the Deep River completed in 1928 to serve as a water supply for the City of High Point. This lake has a surface area of 275 acres, a storage volume of 1.2 billion gallons, and a total drainage area of 61.4 square miles. Oak Hollow Lake, on the West Fork of the Deep River above High Point Lake, was completed in 1971 to supplement High Point's water supply. Oak Hollow Lake has a surface area of approximately 700 acres, a storage volume of 3.3 billion gallons, and a drainage area of 31.2 square miles. Both Oak Hollow and High Point Lakes have sufficiently large storage capacity and retention time to exert an important influence on the flow of water and movement of nutrients from the watershed to Randleman Lake. The Randleman Lake watershed will include parts of nine local jurisdictions with zoning and planning authority, each of which will be responsible for implementing local water supply protection ordinances. Areas of the watershed under direct zoning control of each jurisdiction (including municipal extra-territorial jurisdictions) are shown in Table 1, which includes the area which will be flooded by the proposed lake. This table represents best estimates of existing (1997) zoning authority, although High Point's zoning map was not available electronically. 1 _2 _ Piedmont Triad Regional Water Authority t 1 t Draft (February 1998) Section 1 -Background Legend 0 Randleman LaKe Watershed Lakes Major Streams -County Lines '~] Cities 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 Niles Figure 2. Randleman Lake Watershed Piedmont Triad Regional Water Authority 1-3 Randleman Lake Nutrient Reduction Strategy and Implementation Plan Draft (February 1998) Table 1. Jurisdictional Composition of Proposed Randleman Lake Watershed (acres and percent of land surface) Including Municipal Extra-Territorial Jurisdictions Jurisdiction Randleman City (High Point) Oak Hollow Randleman Lake Lake Direct Lake Watershed Lake Watershed Total Watershed Drainage Guilford Co. 24,202 4,570 8,551 37,323 (36.0 %) (24.0 %) (41.9 %) (35.0 %) Randolph Co. 22,942 0 0 22,942 (34.1 %) (0 %) (0 %) (21.5 %) Forsyth Co. 0 0 2,310 2,310 (0 %) (0 %) (11.3 %) (2.2 %) Archdale 4,719 0 0 4,719 (7.0 %) (0 %) (0 %) (4.4 %) Greensboro 1,769 5,141 4 6,914 (2.6 %) (27.0 %) (0.0 %) (6.5 %) High Point 11,410 8,638 7,995 28,043 (17.0 %) (45.3 %) (39.1 %) (26.3 %) Jamestown 1,797 715 0 2,512 (2.7 %) (3.8 %) (0 %) (2.4 %) Kernersville 0 0 1,564 1,564 (0 %) (0 %) (7.7 %) (1.5 %) Randleman 372 0 0 372 (0.6 %) (0 %) (0 %) (0.3 %) Total Land Area 67, 211 19, 064 20, 424 106, 700 (63.0 %) (17.9 %) (19.1 %) (100 %) Water Surface 3,123 365 742 4,230 Total Area 70, 334 19, 429 21,166 110, 930 1-4 Piedmont Triad Regional Water Authority 1 t A Draft (February 1998) Section 1 -Background Within Oak Hollow and City Lake watersheds, there has been a shift in jurisdiction from the county to Greensboro and High Point since the CDM (1989) study. Total watershed area calculated for this plan is 110,930 acres. 1.2 Need for a Nutrient Reduction Strategy Randleman Lake is proposed to be built downstream of the most rapidly urbanizing area in the region. Although the lower section of the lake proposed for the water supply intake is projected to meet water quality standards, existing development and projected growth could generate pollution that threatens the quality of the upper sections of the lake. Projections of nutrients discharged from wastewater treatment plants and running off city streets, subdivision lawns, gardens, septic fields, and farmland are a particular coneern. Water quality modeling studies indicate that nutrients from existing conditions in the region will cause overabundance of algae growth and pose difficulty in meeting the state's related chlorophyll a standard in the upper reaches of the lake. The water quality conditions are further threatened by projections of added growth. 1.3 Purposes of Strategy and Implementation Plan The purposes of this Nutrient Reduction Strategy and implementation plan are to: ^ determine the level of nutrient reduction needed to assure that associated water quality standards are met throughout the lake ^ identify the most cost-effective ways of reducing nutrient loading to target levels ^ establish accountability in meeting nutrient reduction targets ^ provide a gauge to measure success in meeting water quality standards and to adapt management to take advantage of new information and technologies. 1.4 Components of the Strategy and Implementation Plan The proposed Randleman Lake Nutrient Reduction Strategy and Implementation Plan, as detailed herein, contains the following three components: ^ Nutrient Reduction Goals and Objectives ^ Nutrient Reduction Strategy ^ Implementation Plan The ~Tnals and Ohjectives component (Section 2) uses modeling analysis and North Carolina water quality standards and U.S. EPA guidance as a basis for establishing nutrient loading targets, and documents predicted water quality conditions if the reservoir was built now, predictions for future conditions without water supply protection, and needed nutrient loading reductions. The Nutrient Reduction Strategy component (Section 3) describes proposed approaches to reducing nutrient loading from point and nonpoint sources and provides an estimate of expected results of the strategy. Finally, the Implementation Plan component (Section 4) outlines how the reductions will be accomplished and sustained into the future. Piedmont Triad Regional Water Authority 1-5 w t t 1 1 Draft (February 1990 Section 2 -Nutrient Reduction Goals and Objectives 1 2. NUTRIENT REDUCTION GOALS AND OBJECTIVES 2.1 Applicable Water Quality Standards The proposed Randleman Lake is expected to be classified as a Class WS-IV Water. Under state regulations, waters of this class are protected as water supplies which are generally in moderately to highly developed watersheds (15A NCAC 2B.0211 (f)(2)). Because of the presence of the High Point Eastside Wastewater Treatment Plant ~t the upper end of the Deep River arm, the proposed reservoir is expected to experience excess loading of the nutrients phosphorus and nitrogen, which can lead to undesirable growth of nuisance algae and unaesthetic conditions. The State of North Carolina does not specify numeric water quality standards for nutrients; however, a water quality standard applicable to all fresh surface waters is established for chlorophyll a, a measure of algal concentration (15A NCAC 2B.0211 (b)(3)(A)): Chlorophyll a (corrected): not greater than 40 µg/1 for lakes, reservoirs, and other slow-moving waters not designated as trout waters ... ;the Commission or its designee may prohibit or limit any discharge of waste into surface waters if, in the opinion of the Director, the surface waters experience or the discharge would result in growths of microscopic or macroscopic vegetation such that the standards established pursuant to this Rule would be violated or the intended best usage of the waters would be impaired; EPA Region 4 has suggested more stringent limits for chlorophyll a in southeastern impoundments': "It was determined that at a mean growing season limit of s 15 µg/1 of chlorophyll a, that very few problems would be incurred with respect to water supply. For other uses, a mean growing season chlorophyll a of < 25 µg/1 is recommended to maintain a minimal aesthetic environment for viewing pleasure, safe swimming, and good fishing and boating." Based on these recommendations, North Carolina has considered more stringent goals for water supply waters, including an average ambient chlorophyll a concentration of 25 µg/1 coupled with a not-to-be-exceeded action level of 40 µg/l, although adoption of these goals as standards is not currently being pursued by DWQ.'- 2.2 General Discussion of Assimilative Capacity The aim of the Nutrient Reduction Strategy is to attain the relevant water quality standard of 40 µg/1 chlorophyll a within Randleman Lake. The Nutrient Reduction Strategy also addresses ' Raschke, R. 1993. Guidelines for Assessing and Predicting Eutrophication Status of Small Southeastern Piedmont Impoundments. EPA Region lV, Environmental Services Division, Ecological Support Branch, Athens, GA. 2 Diane Reid, North Carolina Division of Water Quality, personal communications Feb. 8, 1996 and Nov. 21, 1997. Piedmont Triad Regional Water Authority 2-1 Randleman Luke Nutrient Reduction Strategy and Implementation Plan Draft (February 1998) attainment of the EPA recommendations of a lake-wide average concentration of < 25 µg/1 chlorophyll a, and an average concentration of <_ 15 µg/1 within the lake segment adjacent to the water supply intake. Attaining a chlorophyll a concentration goal within an impoundment generally requires controlling the loading of nutrients into the impoundment. Determining appropriate nutrient reduction goals requires an assessment of the assimilative capacity of the proposed reservoir (also known as loading capacity). That is, what magnitudes of nutrient loads are consistent with achieving the chlorophyll a standard? Federal regulations under the Clean Water Act (40 CFR 130.2(f)) define the loading capacity as "the greatest amount of loading that a water can receive without violating water quality standards." It is important to realize that the assimilative capacity for nutrients is not a single, fixed loading amount. First, algal response within a lake varies from year to year in response to variable rates of inflow of water and flushing of reservoir segments. The water quality response within a reservoir also depends on where the loads occur: a nutrient load concentrated in one arm of the reservoir may produce a violation of the chlorophyll a water quality standard in that arm, whereas the same load distributed throughout the reservoir might not result in any excursion of the standard. Finally, loading capacity for one algal nutrient depends on the availability of other nutrients required for algal growth. Assimilative capacity thus varies in both time and space, and cannot be specified as a single fixed rate of loading. Instead, assimilative capacity for a reservoir must be specified conditional on assumptions about hydrology and locations of nutrient sources. For development of the Nutrient Reduction Strategy, the assimilative capacity of the proposed Randleman Lake was evaluated through the application of water quality models of the lake and watershed. The reader is referred to the separate modeling report (Tetra Tech, 1997) for a complete description of the model development and implementation. For the purposes of ' modeling and analysis, Randleman Lake has been divided into a number of segments, as described in the separate modeling report. These segments and their associated watersheds are shown in Figure 3. Note that sub-watershed Deep River 3 is divided into two lake segments for water quality modeling. The proposed water intake is located in segment Deep River 3B. The Tetra Tech Randleman Lake models were used to assess expected water quality if the reservoir were constructed now, and future water quality which would be expected from increased development of the watershed and increases in wastewater flow without a nutrient reduction strategy. These results provide the baseline against which to evaluate assimilative capacity (both current and future) and needed levels of nutrient reduction. The lake water quality model allows prediction of expected chlorophyll a concentrations. These concentrations are most strongly driven by phosphorus concentrations. Assimilative capacity for phosphorus was then assessed in terms of the expected probability of meeting (1) the state standard of 40 µg/1 chlorophyll a, (2) the EPA recommendation of attaining a lake-wide areal average concentration of less than 25 µg/l, and (3) the EPA recommendation of meeting an average concentration of less than 15 µg/1 at the water intake segment. It is not reasonable to propose that the 40 µg/1 standard be predicted to be met 100% of the time. First, occasional algal 2.2 Piedmont Triad Regional Water Authority Draft (Febrzrary 1998) Section 2 -Nutrient Reduction Goals and Objectives 1 1 1 1 I I I I 1 0 1 2 3 Nf les qq_ UIU ~(-o NI o ~~ Oak High ~ Hollow Point ~ Lake Lake i i i i i i i Deep River 2 Deep River 1 --------------------- ---------- -------Guil ord Count Ra olph County Muddy Creek 1 ~ Dee River 3 N Mu dy Creek 2 Dam Figure 3. Randleman Lake Watershed Model Segmentation Piedmont Triad Regional Water Authority 2-3 Randleman Lake Nutrient Redzzction Strate~,ry and Implementation Plan Draft (February 1998) blooms occur in most Piedmont reservoirs even when the average algal concentration and nutrient load is moderate. Second, the predictive modeling tool generally yields a good estimate of mean chlorophyll a, but can provide only a rough approximation of the expected frequency of nuisance algal blooms. It is therefore proposed that model-predicted frequency of less than 5 percent of days during an annual growing season (May to October) with chlorophyll cz concentration greater than 40 µg/1 is a reasonable indicator and appropriate target for assessing assimilative capacity. In general, the second and third goals are expected to be attained fairly easily, as documented below in Section 2.3.1. Within the lower segments of the reservoir there is available assimilative capacity for nutrients, and low chlorophyll a concentrations are expected. Potential excursions of the 40 µg/1 standard are, however, likely in the upstream segments of the reservoir (upstream segments of Deep River arm and Muddy Creek arm). Both of these upstream segments have a small volume and receive substantial nonpoint source runoff from the urbanized High Point- Archdale area. In addition, the Deep River arm receives effluent from the High Point Eastside WWTP. Indeed, the model predicts that the goal of less than 5 percent of days with chlorophyll , a concentrations greater than 40 µg/1 would not be met in the uppermost part of the Deep River arm due to nutrient loads from the WWTP alone and with no watershed contribution of load, even with the WWTP attaining a very high degree of nutrient removal. The hydrologic characteristics of the uppermost section of the Muddy Creek arm will also make it very difficult to achieve this goal within that area. Assimilative capacity is thus expected to be exceeded in the upstream segments of the Deep River an Muddy Creels arms regardless of the controls placed on watershed loading of nutrients. The strategy proposed for these segments is thus to reduce nutrient loads as far as possible in order to minimize the occurrence of unacceptable conditions. ' As noted above, assimilative capacity cannot be given as a single loading rate, due to interactions among parameters. The model predicts chlorophyll a response to both phosphorus and nitrogen loading, and the effects of phosphorus load depend on the level of nitrogen load. Algal response is also sensitive to the partitioning between organic and inorganic fractions of the influent load. Assimilative capacity will therefore be presented in context of specific analysis scenarios. 2.3 Point and Nonpoint Source Reduction Goals Because loading capacity for nitrogen and phosphorus cannot be given by a single number, reservoir chlorophyll a response must be analyzed for a variety of different conditions and evaluated for attainment of water quality standards. Where water quality standards are not met, additional reductions can be determined suitable to the specific conditions analyzed. In general, water quality standards ought to be met both at the time the reservoir is built (existing land use) and in the future as development occurs and land use changes (future land use). Further, attainment of standards needs to be addressed across the expected range of meteorological conditions. 2-4 Piedmont Triad Regional Water Authority Draft (February 1998) Section 2 -Nutrient Reduction Goals and Objectives 2.3.1 Analysis of Existing Conditions The first point of reference for analysis of assimilative capacity is predicted water quality given that the reservoir was built now, with existing land uses and point sources at current operating levels. Note that the Nutrient Reduction Strategy proposed for the High Point Eastside Wastewater Treatment Plant (WWTP) is expected to result in a significant reduction in these loads prior to actual filling of the impoundment. The existing condition analysis provides a baseline for evaluating nutrient reductions. Existing Point Source Loads Existing point source loads are described in detail in Appendix I. The vast majority of point source loading to the proposed Randleman Lake will come from the High Point Eastside WWTP. Based on facility self-monitoring data (May 1996-May 1997), the High Point Eastside WWTP discharges an annual phosphorus load of 58,070 kg/yr (128,021 lbs/yr), and a total nitrogen load of 290,350 kg/yr (640,105 lbs/yr). In addition, there are 11 active "domestic type" permitted discharges of treated wastewater within the Randleman Lake Watershed (letter from W. C. Basinger, NCDWQ Winston-Salem, to Andrea Spangler, PTRWA, 19 November 1997). These discharges-made up of schools, mobile home parks, and a correctional center-do not have self-monitoring data on total phosphorus (TP) and total nitrogen (TN) loading. Upper bound estimates of total load from these facilities, based on a total operational permitted flow of 0.29 MGD and assuming typical TP and TN concentrations of 5 mg/1 and 20 mg/1 respectively, are 2,005 kg/yr (4,420 lbs/yr) TP and 8,020 kg/yr (17,680 lbs/yr) TN. Actual load is likely to be considerably less, as actual flow is expected to be less than permitted flow. Existing Nonpoint Source Loads Nonpoint loading of nutrients reflects physical features of the land surface (e.g., geology, soils, slopes, and vegetative cover) and the uses of the land (e.g., agricultural, commercial, industrial, residential, and open space), including management practices that influence the amount and quality of water running off the land. Nonpoint source loads are estimated using a modified export coefficient approach, as described in the accompanying modeling document. Table 2 provides nutrient export rate estimates (export coefficients) for each land use type as a long-term average rate, as documented for the Randleman Lake watershed in CDM (1989) and Black & Veatch (1991). Different rates apply to generalized hydrologic soil groups B and C; however, soils within the watershed are primarily Class C soils. There is not a detailed map of existing land uses in the Randleman Lake watershed available. Instead, land use must be determined from a variety of sources, including Census, zoning, and land cover information. To represent "existing" conditions we relied on the analysis presented in Piedmont Triad Regional Water Authority 2-5 1 Randleman Lake Nutrient Reduction Strategy and Implementation Plan Draft (February 1998) Black & Veatch (1991), which summarizes land uses as of ca. 1989, modified to account for Randleman Lake being constructed. The distribution of land uses by sub-watershed is shown in Table 3. Note that large-lot rural residences are not accounted for separately, but are subsumed into the forest, pasture, and agricultural land uses. (The total area shown in Table 3 is slightly less than the revised area determined from the project GIS and shown in other tables because Black & Veatch data were developed using other means.) Table 2. Nutrient Export Rate Estimates Land Use Phosphorus (lb/acre-yr) Nitrogen (lb/acre-yr) Soil Group B Soil Group C Soil Group B Soil Group C Forest 0.08 0.08 0.6 0.6 Open Space 0.08 0.08 0.6 0.6 Pasture 0.5 0.5 2.6 2.6 Cropland with BMPs 0.8 0.9 10.3 10.5 Cropland, High Till 4.7 5.6 15.9 17.3 Large Lot SF Residential (2 to 5-acre lots) 0.4 0.4 4.4 4.1 Low Density SF Residential (1 to 2-acre lots) 0.8 0.9 6.7 6.6 Low-Medium Density SF Residential (0.5 to 1-acre lots) 1.0 1.0 8.0 8.0 Medium Density SF Residential (0.25 to 0.5 acre lots) 1.1 1.1 8.8 8.8 Institutional 1.1 1.1 8.8 8.8 Townhouse/ Apartment 1.6 1.7 12.9 13.1 Commercial/ Office 1.6 1.6 13.2 13.2 Heavy Industry 1.3 1.3 11.3 11.2 t 1 2-6 Piedmont Triad Regional Water Authority r air a~ >~ ~s ~i~r » ~ ~ ~ ~ r s ~r ~r ~ .r ~ Table 3. Estimated Existing Land Use by Sub-Watershed (acres) Land Use Sub-Watershed Oak Hollow City Lake Deep River 1 Deep River 2 Deep River 3 Muddy Creek 1 Muddy Creek 2 Dam Area Total Forest 10,718 9,768 9,144 11,284 4,110 7,830 1,747 2,940 ~7,~41 Open Space 229 292 978 3~~ 90 158 27 38 2,167 Pasture 2,299 1,97 1,901 2,924 944 2,008 ~~2 432 13,03 Cropland with BMPs 1,466 1,121 845 1,347 692 1,553 363 X08 7,89 Cropland, High Till 163 125 94 149 77 173 40 56 877 Large Lot SF Residential (2 to 5-acre lots) 969 609 995 598 166 127 89 124 3, 677 Low Density SF Residential (1 to 2- acre lots) 940 994 778 342 0 169 0 0 3, 223 Low-Medium Density SF Residential (0.5 to 1-acre lots) 1,163 243 1,649 374 0 137 0 0 3,66 Medium Density SF Residential (0.25 to 0.~ acre) 288 1,328 2,324 674 0 140 0 0 4, 7~4 Institutional 236 178 152 178 226 766 i37 37 1,910 Townhouse/ Apartment 484 542 642 0 0 89 0 0 1, 7~ 7 Commercial/ Office 256 426 1,143 325 25 50 0 0 2,22 Heavy Industry 242 1,134 1,530 37 0 10 0 0 2,93 Water (with Randleman Lake) 742 36~ 138 553 936 219 46~ 812 4,230 Total 20,19 19,100 22, 313 19,140 7, 266 13, 429 3, 4~ 0 4, 947 109, 810 Randleman Lake Nutrient Reduction Strategy and Implementation Plan Draft (February 1998) The predicted algal response within the proposed Randleman Lake is sensitive to loading of both phosphorus and nitrogen. Table 4 presents estimates of the total nutrient loads to the proposed reservoir from both point and nonpoint sources (including minor point sources) if the reservoir was built under existing conditions. The loads are shown by lake segment. Note that these estimates include nutrient reductions achieved by the recent construction of four regional stormwater detention ponds in the Oak Hollow and City Lake watersheds (see Section 3.2.2). Table 4. Estimated Nutrient Loads by Lake Segment (kg/yr) for Existing Conditions with WWTP at 10.5 MGD, 4 mg/1 Total Phosphorus, and 20 mg/l Total Nitrogen Segment Low Flow Year High Flow Year Average Flow Year P N P N P N Oak Hollow 1,240 15,980 4,690 65,150 3,030 43,620 City Lake 1,790 16,770 7,320 72,400 4,020 42,230 Deep River 1 (NPS and minor PS) 2,610 24,130 8,080 87,670 5,570 60,260 Deep River 1 (WWTP) 58,070 290,350 58,070 290,350 58,070 290,350 Deep River 2 1,130 14,830 3,290 58,170 2,260 39,190 Deep River 3A 910 6,420 1,670 18,030 1,250 12,340 Deep River 3B 60 1,060 280 4,410 160 2,760 Muddy Creek 1 800 12,000 2,730 47,210 1,690 29,580 Muddy Creek 2 170 2,350 780 9,940 440 6,150 Near Dam 180 2,990 850 12,250 480 7,750 TOTAL 66,960 386,890 87,750 665,580 76,970 534,220 Total Nonpoint Source 8,890 96,540 29,680 375,220 18,900 243,870 Loading generated by land uses in the proposed Randleman Lake watershed will vary from average load rates in a given year because of differences in rainfall patterns and runoff. Accordingly, loading rates are modified to reflect load generation corresponding to meteorology experienced in an actual year (see modeling report). Chlorophyl[ a Predictions for Existing Conditions i 1 Predictions for growing-season average chlorophyll a concentrations and frequency of nuisance conditions (chlorophyll a greater than 40 µg/1) are shown in Table 5, based on existing watershed 2-8 Piedmont Triad Regional Water Authority t t Draft (Febrarary 1998) Section 2 -Nutrient Reduction Goals and Objectives and point source conditions described above. Results are given for extreme low flow, high flow, and average flow years, representing the range of potential responses. The predictions for Oak Hollow and City Lakes reflect the nutrient reduction achieved by the recently-constructed regional stormwater detention ponds, which are estimated to reduce average chlorophyll a concentrations in City Lake by approximately 2µg/1 from conditions observed prior to 1997. Table 5. Chlorophyll a Predictions for Existing Conditions Lake Segment Low Flow Year High Flow Year Average Flow Year (see Figure 3) Chl a (µg/1) Nuisance Frequency Chl a (µg/1) Nuisance Frequency Chl a (µg/1) Nuisance Frequency Oak Hollow 11 0.6% 14 1.5% 13 1.2% City Lake 19 6.0% 21 7.7% 20 7.0% Deep River 1 117 94.4% 83 84.2% 95 89.0% Deep River 2 39 36.8% 33 25.9% 35 30.0% Deep River 3A 19 5.7% 20 6.2% 20 6.2°% Deep River 3B 13 1.1% 14 1.6% 14 1.6% Muddy Crk 1 19 5.4% 20 6.5% 17 5.1% Muddy Crk 2 11 0.6% 15 2.0% 14 1.4% Near Dam 8 0.1% 12 1.0% 11 0.5% Lake Randleman Average 22 22 22 Predicted chlorophyll a concentrations for existing conditions, with no reduction in point or nonpoint source loads of nutrients, meet two of the three management objectives: the predicted lakewide average concentration is less than 25 µg/1, and the average concentration in the water supply intake segment (Deep River 3B) is less than 15 µg/1 under all flow conditions. All segments of Randleman Lake are expected to experience occasional algal blooms, although the frequency of days with concentrations of chlorophyll a greater than 40 µg/1 (nuisance conditions) is expected to be less than 5 percent in the lower portions of the lake. Severe nuisance conditions are, however, predicted for the lake segments immediately downstream of the High Point WWTP. Within segment Deep River 1, the predicted growing season average concentration of chlorophyll a ranges from 83 to 117 µg/l, with nuisance conditions with concentrations greater than 40 µg/1 present for more than 84 percent of the growing season. In segment Deep River 2 the growing season average concentration is predicted to be slightly less than 40 µg/l, but nuisance conditions are predicted to occur on between 25 and 37 percent of days during the Piedmont Triad Regional Water Authority 2-9 Randleman Lake Nutrient Reduction Strategy and Implementation Plun Draft (February 1998) growing season. Thus nutrient reductions from current load rates are needed to meet water quality standards in the Deep River 1 segment. The Muddy Creek 1 segment is also predicted to experience nuisance blooms at a rate slightly above the 5 percent goal. Nutrient Reduction Goals for Existing Conditions Eutrophication in lakes is usually controlled through reduction of phosphorus loads, as this is most commonly the nutrient limiting algal growth and nitrogen is more difficult to control, as it has significant ground water and atmospheric loading pathways. Given the assumptions that WWTP phosphorus loading is 75% orthophosphate (the approximate composition of wastewater effluent) an approximate loading capacity for phosphorus in the Deep River 1 segment may be calculated. When total nitrogen concentration in the WWTP effluent is at current levels of approximately 20 mg/1, the loading capacity for phosphorus in the Deep River 1 segment needed to achieve the nuisance frequency goal is approximately 1,800 kg/yr during an average flow year. This results in a predicted average chlorophyll a concentration in this segment of 18 µg/1, and a nuisance frequency of 5 percent. During a low flow year, the loading capacity for phosphorus in Deep River 1 to achieve the nuisance frequency goal is only about 600 kg/yr. The low loading capacity reflects the small dilution capacity present in this narrow, relatively shallow segment. The loading capacity is inversely related to the rate of flow through this segment, with lower flows resulting in longer residence and greater utilization of the nutrients by algae. During a high flow year the loading capacity of the Deep River 1 segment is approximately 2,800 kg/yr. Estimated phosphorus loads to this segment under existing conditions are on the order of 60,000 kg/yr, and direct loading to this segment from nonpoint sources alone is estimated to be from 4 to 10 times the loading capacity. These findings suggest that it will be difficult or infeasible to achieve the nuisance frequency goal within the Deep River 1 segment, due to the natural hydraulic characteristics of the proposed lake. Nuisance frequency goals are also predicted not to be met within the Muddy Creek 1 segment. This segment is primarily affected by nonpoint loads, and it was assumed that phosphorus loading was 50% orthophosphate. Nitrogen loads were held at existing levels. With these assumption, the phosphorus loading capacity of the Muddy Creek 1 segment is approximately 780 kg/yr under low flow conditions, 1,700 kg/yr under average flow conditions, and 2,290 kg/yr under high flow conditions. The loading capacity under average flow is slightly greater than the phosphorus loading under existing conditions shown in Table 4, yet a nuisance frequency of 5.1% is predicted. This is due to the presence of a small amount of domestic-type wastewater discharge to this segment, the effluent of which is assumed to contain greater than 50 percent bioavailable orthophosphate, thus creating a slightly greater algal response than assumed for the calculation of assimilative capacity. The Melbille Heights discharge to this segment will be connected to the municipal sewer by PTRWA as part of the Nutrient Reduction Strategy. Given these assumptions, reductions from existing levels of phosphorus loading needed to achieve loading capacity are summarized below: 2-10 Piedmont Triad Regional Water Authority 1 i 1 1 1 i f Draft (February 1998) Section 2 -Nutrient Reduction Goals and Objectives Total Phosphorus Nutrient Loading Reduction Goals for the Randleman Lake Watershed (kg/yr)* Lake Segment Low Flow Year High Flow Year Average Flow Year Deep River 1 60,100 63,860 61,800 Muddy Creek 1 20 440 0 (* Assumes WWTP effluent is 75% orthophosphate, nonpoint loading is 50% orthophosphate, and nitrogen concentration in High Point Eastside effluent is 20 mg,'l.) 2.3.2 Analysis of Future Conditions without Water Supply Protection As the Triad area continues to grow and develop, both point and nonpoint sources of nutrient load to the proposed reservoir will also change. Changes to point sources include expansion of the High Point WWTP, and potential elimination of some minor discharges. Nonpoint sources will change as land is converted from rural uses to residential and commercial uses. Rates of withdrawal for water supply from the reservoir will also increase. These changes will affect both pollutant loading and flows. The combined effects of changes in load and alteration in flow through the reservoir can be analyzed with the water quality model described above. Future conditions in the watershed and reservoir are analyzed at approximately year 2025. This date was chosen because land use predictions for 2025 have been developed as part of the Piedmont Triad Regional Transportation Study. WWTP and WTP Expansion The High Point Eastside WWTP will expand in the near future to a design capacity of 26 MGD that the facility is expected to reach by the year 2020. This expansion will be accompanied by additional reductions in nutrient concentration and load, as described in Section 3.1.1. The expected permit limits without additional reduction efforts are expected to be 1 mg/1 total phosphorus and 6 mg/1 total nitrogen (summer). The corresponding total phosphorus and total nitrogen loads are: t Effluent flow of 16 MGD Effluent Flow of 26 MGD Total Phosphorus 22,110 kg/yr 35,950 kg/yr (48,750 lb/yr) (79,270 lb/yr) Total Nitrogen 132,640 kg/yr 215,690 kg/yr (292,480 lb/yr) (475,5901b/yr) At the same time, withdrawals from Randleman Lake by the water treatment plant will also increase, changing flow patterns in the lake, reaching a design capacity of 48 MGD by 2040. Piedmont Triad Regional Water Azrthority 2-11 1 Randleman Lake Nutrient Reduction .Strategy and Implementation Plurt Draft (February 1998) Withdrawals by the WTP will remove a significant amount of nutrient mass from the lake. During an average flow year with future land use without water supply protection ordinances and the WWTP operating at capacity, the WTP is predicted to remove 460 kg of phosphorus and 8,210 kg of nitrogen per year. Minor Dischargers It is assumed that no new domestic-type wastewater discharges will be permitted by the State within the Randleman Lake watershed. It is also assumed that permitted flow will not be increased on existing permits. Future Land Use Increased population and economic development in the Piedmont-Triad area will result in changes in land use, including a shift from rural (forest, agriculture) to urbanized (residential, commercial, industrial) uses. The dominant existing land use of undeveloped portions of the watershed is forest (see Table 3), which provides low per-acre loadings of nutrients. To the extent that forest land use is converted to urbanized land uses increases in nutrient loading will occur. Increased impervious surface cover accompanying urbanization will also change runoff patterns. Changes in land use will occur as a result of the interaction of demand and water supply protection efforts. Changes will be greatest, and water supply protection ordinances most important, where development pressure is strongest; where development pressure is weak change will come slowly, and water supply protection ordinances will be less critical. ~ Some parts of the Randleman Lake watershed are expected to experience rapid growth, particularly the area between High Point and Greensboro. Other parts of the watershed, such as the rural parts of Randolph Co. north of Randleman, are expected to remain largely rural and will not approach buildout capacity within the foreseeable future. To distinguish areas of high and low development pressure we used projections for year 2025 !~ developed for the Piedmont Triad Regional Transportation Study, as shown in Figure 4. Areas of the watershed predicted to be key "living areas" and "working areas" by 2025 in this study were assumed to be near fully developed (90% of buildout capacity), while outlying areas were assumed to experience a 20% increase in housing units over current conditions, consistent with the expected rate of population increase in the watershed by 2025. Future conditions for the analysis are thus based on approximate 2025+ conditions. Longer term projections are not available. Methods for estimating future land use changes, with or without water supply protection efforts, are described in Appendix II. Table 6 summarizes the future land use distribution expected without water supply protection ordinances for Randleman Lake, but including existing water 2-12 Piedmont Triad Regional Water Authority 1 1 1 t A a 1 Draft (February 1990 Section 2 -Nutrient Reduction Goals and Objectives Figure 4. Randleman Lake Watershed High Growth Areas for Year 2025 Piedmont Triad Regional Water Azrthority 2-13 t "% County Boundaries 1 0 1 2 3 4 Niles `~ Watersheds ~ Projected Working Areas Projected wing Areas Randlemun Lake Nutrient Reduction Strategy and Implementation Plan Draft (February 1998) supply protection ordinances for the Oak Hollow, City Lake, and Oakdale watersheds. Concentrations in effluent from the High Point Eastside WWTP are assumed to continue at current concentrations as flow increases. Predicted nutrient loads and chlorophyll a response are ~ shown in Tables 7 and 8. For average flow conditions, total phosphorus load is predicted to decline slightly from existing ?~ conditions, representing the reduction in WWTP effluent from 4 mg/1 to 1 mg/1 total phosphorus. ^ Total nonpoint phosphorus loads at average flow, however, are predicted to more than double, from 18,900 to 39,640 kg/yr. Nonpoint nitrogen loads are also predicted to increase significantly in the absence of a nutrient reduction strategy. Chlorophyll a concentrations predicted for future conditions without a nutrient reduction strategy show a significant reduction versus predictions for existing conditions in segments Deep River 1 and Deep River 2. Again, this is due to the decrease in phosphorus concentration in the WWTP effluent, which is assumed to be required regardless of whether a nutrient reduction strategy for Randleman Lake is implemented. In addition, increased through flow rate in these segments associated with increased impervious surface and increased flow from the WWTP helps flush excess nutrients out of the upstream segments of the lake. Within other lake segments, chlorophyll a concentrations are predicted to increase in future due to increased nonpoint source loading of nutrients. For instance, the average chlorophyll a concentration in segment Muddy Creels 1 is predicted to increase from 17 to 28 µg/1 during an average flow year. Impact of Predicted Future Conditions on Nutrient Reduction Goals Predictions for future conditions without a nutrient reduction strategy continue to meet two of the three chlorophyll a management goals: The lakewide average concentration is predicted to be less than 25 µg/1 and the concentration in the water intake segment (Deep River 3B) is less than 15 µg/1. However, the frequency of nuisance conditions (chlorophyll a concentrations greater than 40 µg/1) is predicted to exceed 5% within four segments of the proposed Randleman Lake (Deep River 1, Deep River 2, Deep River 3A, and Muddy Creek 1). The frequency is predicted to increase relative to existing conditions in Deep River 3A and Muddy Creek 1. Predicted future conditions without a nutrient reduction strategy are closer to meeting goals within the Deep River 1 segment than under existing conditions (due to the reductions in the WWTP effluent nutrient concentrations), but still far in excess of target levels. Increased degradation is predicted for the Muddy Creek 1 segment. A nutrient reduction strategy is needed to improve conditions in both segments. ~; 1 2-14 Piedmont Triad Regional Water Authority ~' Table 6. Estimated Future Land Use by Sub-Watershed (acres), without new WS Ordinances Land Use Sub-Watershed Oak Hollow City Lake Deep River 1 Deep River 2 Deep River 3 Muddy Creek 1 Muddy Creek 2 Dam Area Total Forest 2,462 2,883 3,674 6,231 2,588 2,379 1,626 2,540 24,383 Open Space 1,670 6,329 1,403 501 90 179 27 55 10,24 Pasture 10 0 301 891 607 527 514 370 3,220 Cropland with BMPs 0 0 271 802 447 409 338 435 2, 702 Cropland, High Till 0 0 30 89 50 46 37 48 300 Large Lot SF Residential (2 to 5-acre lots) 1,166 33 416 1,433 204 151 158 200 3,761 Low Density SF Residential (1 to 2-acre) 5,659 511 185 419 38 125 25 32 6,994 Low-Medium Density SF Residential (0.5 to 1-acre) 5,026 1,287 429 28 22 1,967 19 24 8,802 Medium Density SF Resid. (0.25 to 0.5 acre) 2,326 4,447 8,814 4,630 1,356 3,565 9 145 2,292 Institutional 236 178 152 178 256 766 164 44 1,974 Townhouse/Apartment 492 542 2,938 1,963 626 1,378 12 94 8,04 CommerciaU Office 688 1,720 1,851 1,028 29 766 12 132 6,226 Heavy Industry 689 1,134 1,530 392 14 951 12 16 4,738 Water (with Randleman Lake) 742 365 138 553 936 219 465 812 =1,230 Total 21,166 19, 429 22,133 19,140 7, 266 13, 429 3, 420 1, 94 110, 930 Randleman Lake Nutrient Reduction Strategy and Implementation Plan Draft (February 1998) Table 7. Estimated Nutrient Loads by Lake Segment (kglyr) for Future Conditions, without Nutrient Reduction Strategy, WWTP at 26 MGD, 1 mg/1 Total Phosphorus, and 6 mg/1 Total Nitrogen Segment Low Flow Year High Flow Year Average Flow Year P N P N P N Oak Hollow 3,780 34,830 10,690 103,320 6,980 69,250 City Lake 3,080 28,210 9,660 93,710 5,710 57,470 Deep River 1 (NPS and minor PS) 6,140 49,690 15,480 137,800 10,460 93,170 Deep River 1 (WWTP) 35,950 215,690 35,950 215,690 35,950 215,690 Deep River 2 4,040 36,520 10,860 104,490 7,040 70,190 Deep River 3A 1,190 10,430 2,290 27,120 1,630 17,720 Deep River 3B 140 2,210 460 7,030 270 4,320 Muddy Creek 1 4,150 35,460 10,220 90,160 6,400 58,220 Muddy Creels 2 190 2,640 830 10,580 470 6,520 Near Dam 270 3,480 1,220 14,950 700 9,350 TOTAL 58,940 419,160 97,670 804,840 75,590 601,900 Total Nonpoint Source 22,990 203,470 61,720 589,150 39,640 386,190 Table 8. Chlorophyll a Predictions for Future Conditions, without Nutrient Reduction Strategy Segment Low Flow Year High Flow Year Average Flow Year Chl a (µg/1) Nuisance Frequency Chl a (µg/1) Nuisance Frequency Chl a (µg/1) Nuisance Frequency Oak Hollow 15 2.3% 17 3.6% 17 3.3% City Lake 22 9.0% 23 9.8% 23 10.4% Deep River 1 95 89.3% 71 76.2% 80 82.5% Deep River 2 36 32.1% 30 22.0% 33 26.1% Deep River 3A 20 6.8% 19 5.7% 19 6.1% Deep River 3B 14 1.9% 13 1.4% 14 1.6% Muddy Crk 1 28 18.1% 28 17.7% 28 18.0% Muddy Crk 2 14 1.6% 15 2.5% 15 2.0% Near Dam 10 0.3% 13 1.3% 12 0.8% Lake Randleman Average 23 21 22 2-16 Piedmont Triad Regional Water Authority t t 1 f 1 I t Draft (Febrzrary 1998) Section 3 -Nutrient Reduction Strategy 3. NUTRIENT REDUCTION STRATEGY The Nutrient Reduction Strategy is divided into two program areas: control of point source nutrient loads, and control of watershed nonpoint source nutrient loads. To address predicted water quality problems within the Deep River 1 segment the emphasis must be placed on point source reductions, as the High Point Eastside contributes the bulk of nutrient load to this ,~ segment. For the Muddy Creek 1 segment there are no significant point sources, so the emphasis must be on nonpoint source controls. 3.1 Point Source Nutrient Control Program 3.1.1 Enhanced Phosphorus Removal at High Point Eastside WWTP Under existing operations, the High Point Eastside WWTP has achieved approximately 4 mg/1 total phosphorus and 20 mg/I total nitrogen (summer), for a total load of 58,070 kg/yr of phosphorus and 290,350 kg/yr of nitrogen. New permit limits are currently being negotiated for the plant. As part of the strategy for protecting the proposed Randleman Lake, it is expected that these will include a 0.5 mg/1 limit for total phosphorus and a 6 mg/l total nitrogen (summer only) limit. PTRWA proposes to enter into an interlocal agreement with the City of High Point as provided for in G.S. 160A-460 that will establish an operating goal of 0.2 mg/1 total phosphorus for the Eastside plant. The interlocal agreement will serve to create a financial incentive for the City of High Point to provide this higher level of treatment. The incentive payment by the Authority will be based on the projected higher cost of treatment for this lower phosphorus concentration. The agreement will also provide for a review and extension of the financial incentive, if necessary, coincident with the permit renewal cycle for the Eastside plant. The enhanced treatment levels of 0.2 mg/1 total phosphorus and 6 mg/1 total nitrogen (summer), represent a 20-fold reduction in phosphorus and a 3-fold reduction in nitrogen for anear-term discharge of 16 MGD. By the time the plant reaches expected buildout capacity of 26 MGD, the additional treatment will still result in a phosphorus load 88 percent less than that currently being discharged from the plant. Nutrient loads for the WWTP are summarized in Table 9, and the 1 1 e reduction in phosphorus load is shown graphically in Figure 5. Loads with the Nutrient Reduction Strategy in place are compared to loads with an effluent limit of 1 mg/1 total phosphorus as assumed for the analysis of future conditions without water supply protection (Section 2.3.2). Given an assimilative capacity at average flow of 1,800 kg/yr phosphorus within the Deep River 1 segment, and predicted future loads to this segment of 46,400 kg/yr without a nutrient reduction strategy, a reduction in loading of 44,600 kg/yr would be needed to meet all water quality goals. The improvements to the WWTP accomplish a reduction of 28,760 kg/yr, or 64 percent of the needed reductions. Piedmont Triad Regional Water Authority 3-1 Randleman Lake Nutrient Reduction Strategy and Implementation Plan Draft (February 1998) so,ooo 50,000 40,000 Y (6 O ~ 30,000 0 L n 0 20,000 L a 10,000 0 cxisung wao ~ i~.o wi~u a[ 4 mgn~ ruwra Iowa ~co wiuv ec u.~ inyn~ Figure 5. Annual Phosphorus Loads from High Point Eastside WWTP Table 9. Future High Point Eastside WWTP Nutrient Loads (kg/yr) Operating Condition Total Phosphorus Total Nitrogen 10.5 MGD at 4 mg/1 P, 20 mg/1 N 58,030 290,150 16 MGD at 1 mg/1 P, 6 mg/1 N 22,110 132,640 26 MGD at 1 mg/1 P, 6 mg/1 N 35,950 215,690 16 MGD at 0.2 mg/1 P, 6 mg/1 N 4,420 132,640 26 MGD at 0.2 mg/1 P, 6 mg/1 N 7,190 215,690 3.1.2 Potential for Control of Minor Dischargers The majority of the minor "domestic-type" permitted wastewater discharges within the watershed of the proposed Lake Randleman are in areas for which no sewer extension is planned. Currently, PTRWA has committed to remove two minor discharges-Melbille Heights and Hidden Forest-by connecting their effluent to municipal sewer systems. For analysis of future 3-2 Piedmont Triad Regional Water Authority 1 1 1 1 A 1 t Draft (February 19)8) .SeCt10Y! 3 -Nutrient Reduction Strategy conditions with nutrient reduction strategies it is assumed that these two dischargers will be connected to the municipal sewer system, removing a total of 0.135 MGD in permitted flow. This would result in an estimated reduction of 910 kg/yr total phosphorus and 3640 kg/yr total nitrogen loading. Other existing minor dischargers falling within areas of future sewer extension will be evaluated for discharge removal on a plant-by-plant basis. There are three minor dischargers located within the boundaries of the future sewer service area of Greensboro. These are Hickory Run Mobile Home Park (Bull Run Creek), and Plaza and Crown Mobile Home Parks (Hickory Creek), all of which drain to the Deep River I segment of the proposed Randleman Lake. 3.2 Nonpoint Source Control Program Additional nutrient reductions will be achieved through a nonpoint source control program. Within the downstream segments of the lake the nonpoint source control program provides ~.~ additional actions to help prevent exceeding assimilative capacity. Within the upstream segments Deep River 1 and Muddy Creek 1, where assimilative capacity is expected to be exceeded, the Nutrient Reduction Strategy for nonpoint sources will focus on preventing additional degradation of water quality. 1 a I e The Nutrient Reduction Plan for nonpoint sources contains five major components. First are the watershed protection ordinances which restrict density of development and types of land use in the watershed, as described in Section 3.2.1. Other components include structural controls on load generation from specific land uses (Section 3.2.2), non-structural controls on load generation (Section 3.2.3), education and outreach programs (Section 3.2.4), and monitoring and enforcement (Section 3.2.5). 3.2.1 Watershed Protection Ordinances Basis in State Regerlations Approximately 50 % of North Carolina's population depends on rivers and lakes for drinking water as well as commercial and industrial uses. In the last decade, the state and many local governments recognized the need to rely not just on treating drinking water to remove chemicals and pathogens but also on preventing pollution from entering water supplies. Responding to the growing demand on the state's surface water supplies and growing concern about degradation of surface water sources by nutrients and other pollutants, the NC General Assembly passed the Water Supply Protection Act of 1989 (NCGS 143-214.5). The Act requires all local governments that have land use jurisdiction within surface water supply watersheds to implement and enforce nonpoint source pollution management according to minimum standards adopted by the state. The water supply standards for managing nonpoint source pollution apply to local governments' urban development and to agricultural, silvicultural, and Department of Transportation activities in the watershed. Piedmont Triad Regional Water Authority 3-3 Randleman Lake Nutrient Reduction Strategy crud Implementution Plan Draft (February 1998 In the State's Water Supply Watershed Protection standards, there are five water supply classes (WS-I to WS-V) that are defined by the existing intensity of land use and types of permitted wastewater discharges. The WS-I watersheds are the least disturbed and have the most stringent minimum requirements for future water quality protection. WS-IV watersheds have an urban character and less stringent controls on future development. (WS-V watersheds are those that local governments-have designated as future water supply sources but currently have no water supply withdrawal.) The standards require dual action by state and local governments. By classifying a watershed as a water supply, all local governments within the watershed must take action to control nonpoint sources of pollution through housing density controls, limits on impervious area in a development, buffers along streams, stormwater control requirements for higher density development, and other means of reducing the potential contamination of the water supply. In turn, the state limits the point source discharges that can locate within the watershed. Watershed Overlay Districts The Randleman Lake watershed contains three smaller water supply watersheds: Oakdale, City Lake, and Oak Hollow Lake watersheds, all classified as WS-IV (Figure 6). The relevant jurisdictions of Guilford Co., Forsyth Co., High Point, Jamestown, Kernersville, and Greensboro all have approved water supply protection ordinances in place for these watersheds. Seven jurisdictions have area in the watershed which drains directly to the proposed Randleman Lake, and not to the upstream City Lake and Oak Hollow watersheds. These are: Guilford Co., Greensboro, High Point, Jamestown, Randolph Co., Archdale, and Randleman. Guilford Co., Greensboro, Randolph Co., and Archdale have all adopted water supply watershed overlay districts and water supply protection ordinances for the proposed Randleman Lake. Guilford Co. and Greensboro have designated the water supply watershed overlay district for Randleman Lake (referred to as Randleman Dam watershed) as a WS-IV classification. Much of the watershed lying in Randolph Co. is currently undeveloped, and Randolph Co. and Randleman have voluntarily adopted a higher degree of protection, defining the overlay district as WS-III. High Point has existing WS-IV watershed overlay districts for City Lake and Oak Hollow Lake. For areas within High Point's zoning jurisdiction draining directly to Kandleman Lake, High Point has agreed to adopt Guilford County's watershed protection ordinances, which are more stringent than the state minimum for WS-IV. These more stringent ordinances will also be applicable in the existing Oakdale watershed overlay district. Jamestown and Archdale have not yet adopted watershed overlay districts for the proposed reservoir. These jurisdictions, however, have existing WS-IV water supply protection ordinances for other watersheds, and it is assumed that similar ordinances will be adopted for Randleman Lake. The status of watershed overlay districts for the Randleman Lake watershed and upstream watersheds is shown in Table 10. 1 i 1 1 a 1 3-4 Piedmont Triad Regional Water Authority 1 1 1 f 1 e i 1 1 1 w c t 1 1 Draft (February 1998) Section 3 -Nutrient Reduction Strategy ~ ~~C~ ® Critical Area (Randolph County) Critical Area Tiers (Guilford County) ~2 3 ;: 4 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 Niles ty Figure 6. Existing Water Supply Watersheds in the Randleman Lake Watershed Piedmont Triad Regional Water Authority 3-5 i Randleman Lake Nutrient Reduction Strategy and Implementation Plan Draft (February 1998) Table 10. Existing Watershed Overlay Districts for Randleman Lake Watershed. Jurisdiction Applicability Critical Area (CA) Protected Area (PA) Guilford County Randleman Dam (Lake) Not less than '/z mile from the Balance of the reservoir High Point (City Lake) normal pool elevation of reservoir. watershed. Oak Hollow Lake Tiers defined within CA: Tier 1: within 200 ft of normal pool elevation of reservoir Tier 2: 200-750 ft Tier 3: 750 ft-3000 ft, not to exceed CA boundary Tier 4: between Tier 3 and Guilford CA boundaries Greensboro Randleman Dam (Lake) Not less than '/z mile from the Balance of the reservoir High Point (City Lake) normal pool elevation of reservoir. watershed. Tiers: defined as in Guilford County High Point Oak Hollow Lake To the ridgeline of reservoir; for All land within City Lake major feeding streams, not less jurisdiction that drains Oakdale Watershed than 2,750 ft upstream. to reservoir and falls (Randleman Lake:Guilford i rs: defined as in Guilford outside of Critical Area County ordinances County, except that Tier 3 extends proposed for adoption) to 2,750 ft Jamestown High Point (City Lake) To the ridgeline of reservoir; for All land within Oakdale Watershed major feeding streams, not less jurisdiction that drains (Randleman Lake: not yet than 2,750 ft upstream. to reservoir and falls adopted) Tiers: defined as in Guilford outside of Critical County, except that Tier 3 extends Area. to 2,750 ft Randolph County Randleman Lake Defined on Randolph County's Balance of the reservoir Watershed Protection Map; must watershed. meet State requirement of/z mile and draining to reservoir. Randleman Randleman Lake Defined on Randleman's Balance of the reservoir Watershed Protection Map; must watershed. meet State requirement of/z mile and draining to reservoir. Archdale (Randleman Lake: not yet Not applicable. adopted) Forsyth County Oak Hollow Lake Not applicable. (Approximately '/Z Balance of the reservoir mile of normal pool of reservoir) watershed. Kernersville Oak Hollow Lake Not applicable. Balance of the reservoir watershed. 1 w 1 i 1 1 1 1 1 3-6 Piedmont Triad Regional Water Authority 1 w i r 1 e 1 Draft (February 1998) Section 3 - Nartrient Reduction Strategy In keeping with the state's watershed protection rules, ordinances in all of the jurisdictions define two overlay districts: a Critical Area near the water supply (in which the most stringent land use controls are required) and a Protected Area. The state rules require the Critical Area to include all land within''/2 mile of and draining to a water supply reservoir; Table 10 shows that all of the jurisdictions meet this rule in the existing ordinances. Guilford County has adopted a Critical Area that in some areas goes beyond the state-required '/z mile minimum. In all of these jurisdictions, the Protected Area has been defined as the balance of the reservoir's watershed falling outside of the Critical Area, which meets the State requirement for WS-III watersheds and exceeds the requirement for WS-IV watersheds. In the Guilford County jurisdictions (Guilford County, Greensboro, High Point, and Jamestown), four tiers have been delineated within the Critical Area that act as further overlay districts. Tier 4 is outside the state-defined Critical Area but within the Guilford County Critical Area designation. Table 11 shows the density limits associated with the water supply ordinances. Projected Future Land Use with Water Supply Protection Ordinances The water supply protection ordinances place significant restrictions on potential development within the watershed by controlling the minimum lot size in residential developments and the maximum allowed areal coverage by buildings, roads, parking lots, and other impervious surfaces in commercial and industrial developments. However, for some areas in the watershed expected development is also restricted by other factors, such as lack of demand for development, presence of public water and sewer, and poor suitability of soils for septic systems. The actual impact of the ordinances on future land use must therefore be determined through careful analysis of the interaction of ordinances, demand, and environmental features. The methodology used to estimate future land use conditions is described in Appendix II. As with the estimate of future conditions without water supply protection, the analysis is based on approximate year 2025+ conditions. Projected future land use with water supply protection ordinances is shown in, Table 12, which can be compared with Table 5. Figure 7 contrasts projected 2025+ land use under existing conditions and with and without proposed water supply projection ordinances. The water supply ordinances result in an increased amount of forest and open land. Commercial and industrial uses are diminished, with a corresponding shift to forest and open land by the impervious surface cover limitations in the ordinances. The ordinances will result in only a small decrease in the total land area in residential uses; however, the residential land developed with WS-IV ordinances will generally be at lower density and greater lot size. Table 13 shows the reduction in nutrient loads expected to be achieved by water supply protection ordinances alone, without considering other nonpoint source control strategies. The water supply protection ordinances are predicted to result in a net reduction of 6,250 kg/yr total phosphorus (19% of the nonpoint source load) and 36,800 kg/yr total nitrogen (11 % of the nonpoint source load) during an average flow year. The greatest reductions are achieved in those subwatersheds subject to growth pressure; little savings occur in areas such as Muddy Creels 2 where little growth is expected. No reductions are indicated for Oak Hollow and City Lake watersheds because water supply protection ordinances for these watersheds are already in place. Piedmont Triad Regional Water Authority 3-7 Table 11. Limits to Development Density in Water Supply Protection Ordinances Critical Area Balance of Watershed Low Density Development High Density Low Density Development High Density Development Low Density Development without curb i3< gutter ` Development State Regulations Residential 2 du/ac 50% 2 du/ac 3 du/ac 70% (WS-IV) Non-residential 24% 50% 24% 36% 70% Guilford County Residential No public sewer Public sewer NA No public sewer Public sewer NA 70% (existing) Tier 1: NA Tier 1: NA 40,000 sq ft lot 2 dulac and Tier 2: 1 du/5 ac Tier 2: 1 du/5 ac High Point direct Tier 3: 1 du/3 ac Tier 3: 2 du/1 ac drainage to Tier 4: 1 du/1 ac Tier 4: 2 du/ 1 ac Randleman Lake or <= 24% (proposed) Non-residential No public sewer Public sewer No public sewer Public sewer No public sewer Public sewer NA 70% Tier 1: NA Tier 1: NA NA Tier 3: 34% 40,000 sq ft lot 24% Tier 2: 2.5% Tier 2: 2.5% Tier 4: 40% Tier 3: 4.0% Tier 3: 24% Tier 4: 12% Tier 4: 30% Greensboro Residential No public sewer Public sewer NA 2 du/ac NA 70% Tier 1: 0.5% Tier 1:0.5% Tier 2: 1 du/5 ac Tier 2: 1 du/5 ac Tier 3: 1 du/3 ac Tier 3: 2 du/1 ac Tier 4: 1 du/1 ac Tier 4: 2 du/ 1 ac Non-residential No public sewer Public sewer No public sewer Public sewer 24% NA 70% _ Tier 1:0.5% Tier 1:0.5% NA Tier 3: 34% Tier 2: 2.4% Tier 2: 2.4% Tier 4: 40% Tier 3: 4.0% Tier 3: 24% Tier 4: 12% Tier 4: 24% High Point Residential (Public sewer required in Critical Area) Tier 4: 2.5 du/ac 2 dulac 3 du/ac 70% (City Lake and Tier 1: NA Oak Hollow Lake) Tier 2: 1 du/ac Tier 3: 2 du/ac Tier 4: 2 du/ac Non-residential (Public sewer required in Critical Area) Tier 3: 35% 24% 36% 70% Tier 1: NA Tier 4 50% Tier 2: NA Tier 3: 24% Tier 4: 24% High Density Development =with construction of stormwater control (usually wet detention pond) designed to control first 1" of rainfall ` If Low Density development in the watershed Protected Area is built without curb 8 gutter street systems, state regulations allow a maximum of 3 du/ac or 36% built-upon area. This option is not available in the Critical Area. "Tier 4 defined by Guilford County is outside of state minimum 1/2 mile Critical Area, but inside the Critical Area boundary on the Guilford Water Supply Overlay District Map. NA =Not available ~ s ^~ . ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ s ~~ r~ a ri r ~ ~ ~ ~ Table 11. Limits to Development Density in Water Supply Protection Ordinances (cont.) Critical Area Balance of Watershed Low Density Development High Density Low Density Development High Density Development Low Density Development without curb & gutter' Development State Regulations Residential 2 du/ac 50% 2 du/ac 3 du/ac 70% (WS-IV) Non-residential 24% 50% 24% 36% 70% Jamestown Residential (Public sewer required in Critical Area) Tier 4: 2.5 du/ac 2 du/ac 3 du/ac 70% Tier 1: NA Tier 2: 1 du/ac Tier 3: 2 du/ac Tier 4: 2 du/ac Non-residential (Public sewer required in Critical Area) Tier 3: 35% 24% 36% 70% Tier 1: NA Tier 4: 50% Tier 2: NA Tier 3: 24% Tier 4: 24% Randolph County Residential 1 du/2 ac NA No public sewer Public sewer NA NA 1 du/40,000 sq ft 2 du/ac Non-residential 6% NA 24% NA NA Randleman Resid 1 du/2 ac NA No public sewer Public sewer NA NA 1 du/40,000 sq ft 1 or 2 (?) du/ac Non-residential 12% NA 24% NA NA Archdale Residential NA (No Randleman Lake NA No public sewer Public sewer NA NA Critical Area within 1 du/40,000 sq ft 2 du/ac Archdale jurisdiction.) Non-residential NA NA 24% NA NA Forsyth County Residential 1 du/20,000 sq ft or 24% NA 1 du/20,000 sq ft or 24°/ 1 du/13,500 sq ft or 36% NA Non-residential 24% NA 24% 36% NA Kernersville Residential NA (No Randleman Lake NA 2 du/ac or 24% NA 70% Critical Area within Non-residential NA Kemersvillejurisdiction.) NA 24% NA 70% High Density Development =with construction of stormwater control (usually wet detention pond) designed to contrcl first 1" of rainfall ' If Low Density development in the watershed Protected Area is built without curb 8 gutter street systems, state regulations allow a maximum of 3 du/ac or 36% built-upon area. This option is not available in the Critical Area. "Tier 4 defined by Guilford County is outside of state minimum 1/2 mile Critical Area, but inside the Critical Area boundary on the Guilford Water Supply Overlay District Map. NA =Not available Table 12. Estimated Future Land Use by Sub-Watershed (acres) with Water Supply Protection Ordinances Land Use Sub-Watershed Oak Hollow City Lake Deep River 1 Deep River 2 Deep River 3 Muddy Creek 1 Muddy Creek 2 Dam Area Total Forest 2,462 2,883 4,437 6,721 2,608 2,474 1,649 2,618 2,8.52 Open Space 1,670 6,329 1,491 1,258 90 621 27 104 11,590 Pasture 10 0 272 865 599 587 516 371 3,220 Cropland with BMPs 0 0 245 770 442 460 339 436 2, 692 Cropland, High Till 0 0 27 84 49 46 37 48 291 Large Lot SF Residential (2 to 5-acre lots) 1,166 33 1,00 2,54 822 259 152 208 6,244 Low Density SF Residential (1 to 2-acre lots) 5,659 511 1,297 1,764 1,424 3,019 57 72 13,803 Low-Medium Density SF Residential (0.5 to 1-acre) 5,026 1,287 7,386 3,333 9 3;042 0 0 20,083 Medium Density SF Residential (0.25 to 0.~ ac) 2,326 4,447 2,324 674 0 772 0 176 10, 719 Institutional 236 178 152 178 256 766 164 44 1, 974 Townhouse/ Apartment 492 542 642 0 0 97 0 21 1, 794 Commercial/ Office 688 1,720 1,143 347 28 462 12 37 4,437 Heavy Industry 689 1,134 1,530 37 0 724 0 0 4,114 Water (with Randleman Lake) 742 365 138 553 936 219 46~ 812 4,230 Total 21,166 19, 429 22,135 19,140 7, 266 13, ~ 49 3, 420 4, 947 111, 052 Draft (February 19TH) Section 3 -Nutrient Reduction Strategy Existing Conditions Commercial/Industri~' "°' ` Residential (16%) Agriculture (21%) Oper, ,~ ~, Future, with Ordinances Commercial/ Forest (24%) Industrial (8%) ~~~~ - Open (11 %) Agriculture (6%) Residential (51 %) Open (5%) Agriculture (6 %) Residential (52%) Figure 7. Existing and Projected 2025+ Land Use for Randleman Lake Watershed Table 13. Estimated Reduction in Nonpoint Nutrient Loads by Lake Segment (kg/yr) Achieved by New Water Supply Protection Ordinances for Future Land Use Conditions Segment Low Flow Year High Flow Year Average Flow Year P N P N P N Oak Hollow 0 0 0 0 0 0 City Lake 0 0 0 0 0 0 Deep River 1 1,740 12,360 2,990 18,220 1,940 11,620 Deep River 2 1,750 12,370 3,710 20,690 2,290 12,950 Deep River 3A 170 2,430 320 4,40 210 2,840 Deep River 3B 50 700 90 1,310 60 820 Muddy Creek 1 1,360 7,840 2,590 11,670 1,640 7,660 Muddy Creek 2 10 100 20 210 10 130 Near Dam 60 520 160 1,280 100 780 TOTAL 5,130 36,330 9,870 57,920 6,250 36,800 Piedmont Triad Regional Water Authority Forest (54%) Future, without Ordinances Commercial/ Forest (21%) Industrial (16%) 3-11 Randleman Lake Nutrient Reduction Strategy and Implenrentution Plan Draft (February 1998) For the Deep River 1 segment, the water supply protection ordinances provide a reduction of 1,940 kg/yr total phosphorus during an average flow year, or 3 percent of the needed reductions to meet assimilative capacity in this segment. 3.2.2 Structural Controls on Loads The second component of the strategy for reducing loads from nonpoint sources is use of structural controls on loads. Given that land uses associated with increased pollutant loads will be present, structural controls are designed to trap or isolate pollutants before they can reach the reservoir. Regional Stormwater Ponds CDM (1989) conducted a watershed management study to design ways to improve the protection of Oak Hollow and City Lake watersheds. This report recommended establishing a regional BMP Master Plan to mitigate the impacts of NPS pollution loading into High Point's reservoirs. Specific recommendations included 72 detention ponds (62 wet, 10 dry), of which 33 ponds would be located in City Lake watershed and 39 ponds in Oak Hollow Lake watershed. The goal of these detention ponds would be to reduce nonpoint source loading from existing and future development. In addition, the ponds would provide retention and containment capabilities for any potential hazardous material spills. High Point began to implement the CDM recommendations for Stormwater ponds on a pond-by- pond basis. After permitting four of the ponds, USACE required that High Point document the cumulative impacts on wetlands of a1172 of the ponds simultaneously to obtain necessary permitting, rather than permitting ponds individually. High Point contracted with HDR to study the permittability of the remaining 68 proposed ponds, and chose not to pursue a single permit for financial reasons. At present there are four regional detention ponds which have been constructed in the High Point/Guilford County area (see Figure 8). The four sites are Piedmont Lake, Davis Lake, Regency Lake, and the Oak Hollow Mall Lake. The purpose of these four facilities is to provide storm runoff protection and improved water quality for the City of High Point's two existing water supplies: Oak Hollow Lake and City Lake. A fifth site is in the planning stage. The Piedmont Lake facility is located north of High Point on Piedmont Parkway between NC Highway 68 and Tarrant Road on the East Fork of Deep River. The watershed contributing to the Piedmont Lake facility consists of 1,200 acres of medium density single family, commercial, office, and woodland areas. This watershed also includes the petroleum tank farm at Friendship along the I-40, railroad, and Piedmont-Triad International Airport corridor. The Piedmont Lake facility has a normal pool elevation of 806 msl, a maximum water surface elevation of 816.3 msl, a corresponding total storage volume of 304 acre-feet, and a total surface area of approximately 12 acres. Due to the potential for spills from the tank farm, Piedmont Lake has spill containment capabilities. 3-12 Piedmont Triad Regional Water Authority 1 SKEET CLUB ROAD FACILITY REGENCY LAKE <, I ~+i I ~ a~ ao y~ ~ F 041RY / O 19~ Y ~ ~ ` • ~ ago PIEDMONT ~ / ~ U I ~ \t LAKE ~ ` N = z a 2~ P~~ ~ I clue ~ \ DAVlS LAKE t 1 ~~ OAK HOLLOW LAXE O 68 NIGH Z POI,'VT LAXE ~~~ ~ -+~ 3n By, p `~ 311 ~~L,1, `,~~ MFR OAK HOLLOW I ~ MALL LAKE 1 29A H 70A ~ LEX~ G? .. ~n 29 U b 70 I ~ ~ MONt~~~J ~~ I O KI~ET7 ~ I J 70A es HIGH 1 POINT 1 OR 1 I `` 0 2 9 MILES Figure 8. Location of Regional Detention Ponds Randleman Lake Nutrient Reduction Strate~,ry and Implementation Plan Draft (February 199~Y) The Davis Lake facility is located just north of High Point between NC Highway 68 and Tarrant Road on the East Fork of Deep River. The watershed contributing to the Davis Lake facility consists of 1,258 acres of mainly woodland and agricultural land uses, with some industrial and commercial development appearing in the past several years. Davis Lake has a normal pool elevation of 794 msl, a maximum surface elevation of 800.4 msl, a corresponding total storage volume of 310 acre-feet, and a total surface area of 22 acres. The Regency Lake facility is located north of High Point between Gallimore Dairy Road and Regency Drive, east of NC Highway 68 on the East Fork of the Deep River. The watershed contributing to the Regency Lake facility consists of 4,095 acres of industrial, commercial, office, and medium density residential land uses. Regency Lake has a normal pool elevation of 792 msl, a maximum water surface elevation of 799 msl, a corresponding storage volume of 90 acre-feet, and a total surface area of approximately 4 acres. The Oak Hollow Mall facility is located in High Point between Johnson Street and Eastchester Drive, southeast of the Oak Hollow Mall. The watershed contributing to the Oak Hollow Mall facility consists of 742 acres of medium density single family, multi-family residential, commercial, office, and institutional land uses, and includes the northern segment of the North Main Street corridor from Lexington Avenue north of Highway 68. The Oak Hollow Mall facility has a normal pool elevation of 814.8 msl, a maximum water surface elevation of 822 msl, a corresponding total storage volume of 163 acre-feet, and a total surface area of approximately 8 acres. The City of High Point also plans to construct a fifth storm water treatment facility. The proposed Skeet Club Road facility, which is scheduled to begin construction in the near future, will be situated on the West Fork of the Deep River at the outermost reach of Oak Flollow Lake. The watershed contributing to this proposed facility consists of approximately 9,800 acres of urban and rural housing development, commercial, institutional, and agricultural land uses. The Skeet Club Road facility will consist of an impoundment and containment structure which will create approximately 11 acres of constructed/enhanced wetlands. A sediment forebay will provide approximately 21,000 cubic yards (4.25 million gallons) of storage volume. The proposed facility is currently being re-designed by the City's consultant, and construction is scheduled to be completed by the summer of 1998. For developments requiring stormwater control occurring in an area that is already controlled by one of the existing ponds, the developer has the option of paying a share of costs of the existing pond. If there is no stormwater detention already existing then the developer must construct one on site. WRRI conducted a study of pollutant trap efficiency in High Point's Davis and Piedmont Ponds (Borden et al., 1996). They found that the ponds were capable of removing an average of 43 percent of influent phosphorus load and 26 percent of the influent nitrogen load. Four of the five ponds have already been constructed, and do not represent an additional reduction in nutrient 3-14 Piedmont Triad Regional Water Authority Draft (February 1994) ,Section 3 -Nutrient Reduction Strategy load. These ponds are included in the model simulations for future conditions both with and without a nutrient reduction strategy. The fifth, proposed pond (Skeet Club Road facility) is estimated to provide an additional reduction in loading to Oak Hollow Lake of 1,281 kg/yr total phosphorus and 6,648 kg/yr total nitrogen under average flow conditions. Constructed Wetlands Uncontrolled stormwater runoff can accelerate erosion and downstream flooding, and transport large amounts of nutrients and other pollutants to receiving waters. Control of runoff, with opportunity for trapping and deposition of pollutants, can provide a significant reduction in nutrient load. One alternative to the use of wet detention ponds for runoff control is use of constructed or enhanced wetlands. Where runoff passes through a wetland, the force of the flowing water is reduced, less particulate material is transported, and the pollutant load delivered downstream is reduced. Construction and operation of Randleman Lake would impact, principally by inundation, ' approximately 121 acres of wetlands. As required under Section 404 of the Clean Water Act, PTRWA is addressing the loss of these wetlands through the implementation of a mitigation program that includes the acquisition and permanent conservation of approximately 700 acres of ' swamp forest located along the Black River and the creation restoration of approximately 120 acres of forested wetland along tributaries of the Deep River. The 120 acres will be located in areas that would also provide water quality benefits, reducing loading to Randleman Lake from upstream sources of pollution. l ~,r~rd 2 1 1 1 Davis-Martin-Powell & Associates has condu study on the use of constructed and enhanced wetlands to reduce nutrient load n Lake. Nine candidate wetland mitigation sites were initially identified. From s were identified on which constructed/enhanced wetlands will be created. These sites will either be constructed directly PTRWA or by the State under the Wetland Restoration Enhancement Program (WREP) if t Authority elects to pay into this wetland bank. These are shown in Table 14 and Figure 9. ~ 's~,~ o ~~ ~~ Table 14. Proposed Constructed /Enhanced Wetlands Site Surface Area (acres) Draina Area (acres) Richland Creek/Eastside WWTP 38.1 9,979 Reddicks Creek 3.2 5,900 Hickory Creek 3 6,211 Up er Muddy Creek 16.6 2,020 erse Va e 7.0 450 Butt e Dairy ~, ~ 2.8 429 Td ALS---- 121.6 24,989 ~t Triad Regional Water A w ~~-- ~ ~ ~y cted feasibility ing o Randlema t s list six site ~j~ 3-15 k~~~M a~- 1" ~~ ~~~~j~~~ MUDDY CREEK ~ I • ~ LAND I~ ;~.- :~ ~ ,. nur 'l' ~ ~ / gyn.. I. r "r ~/..... C ~~ ~ ;: ~ ~ ~; j ~, ....., .. .. • .... ,... ,~ • --,. ,.1- J' ~ ~ - ~, I ~ / ..... f".S'''~ . - ~ ,,J ••. ( '• (- .. l +n•.an: ~ BUTTKE DAIRY ~ ~ ~ ' - '• ~ .I~:;:, K i SITE ' ~ - l ~~;•• '• ~ ~i... I __ 'T .~ . .~ ~, `"' ,,,, , , . 2 ° Y ~ J ,., / ~~., ~ Wrtt-MU~r ir~o~eli t Auoc.. Inc. L ~ / ~ I ~ - ) ~tMINQI1tM-lAlO rw«IM-«wrnnn '• r' t ~ _ I ~ _ tU MTt11000 lR.. NIit Itt _._ 1 ._ - ~ ~- ~ ~ , I ~ ~ _ I ~ ~ t11N r01tT. pORTN CUIOL IMA Y72tt • ~ ~ _ •-•! . ••• ~•' f10t11M-liA C01(TilOl f~CIIITIEi .....r... r • ~ _ i PIEOIiONT TI11A0 11Et10MAL WATER AIITNONIiY ...~. .; -~ ~ ._. \ ~ ~ ~ ~~•~• RANDLEMAN LAKE "" ~ S!!!!! IUMOOI/N t tVIl~O~D COUNTIE! .~ ~ ! /~ ...nn n...... n.. •... ....n~ M011TN C4110 LIMA 1 ~ ~. u. . ~~ .......... u.. a.r...~ •... . ww +w rw u.a ~. rctt Figure 9. Location of Proposed Constructed/Enhanced Wetlands Draft (February 1998) Section 3 -Nutrient Reduction Strategy Cach constructed/enhanced wetland site will consist of low head dams as necessary to maintain a ~ normal water depth of -6" to +18" above natural ground level throughout the site. Some minimal ~y~V grading will be required to shape the constructed wetland and obtain the desired normal pool ~~' ~,/i "~ depth, but the intent is to preserve the existing bottomland hardwood forests common to these ~~ ~~ ~q o sites and re lace the undergrowth with aquatic plants native to the wetland environment. The ~d P types of vegetation that can be established will depend on the depth of water and how frequently ~J`~L ~ the areas will be inundated. A planting plan will be developed during the design of the wetlands to coincide with the grading and site plans. ~~ ~d ~ ; ~ ~ r ; ti 9 ~o r s uc<<t> J In general, wetlands designed for water quality treatment can provide significant nitrogen removal through plant uptake and denitrification. Their performance for phosphorus removal is highly variable (MWCOG, 1992). The Water Pollution Control Federation (Schueler et al., 1990) provides guidelines for use of wetlands for nitrogen removal. To achieve significant (> 50%) nitrogen removal they recommend a minimum wetland surface area of 4 hectares (10 acres) per 1,000 m3 of average daily flow to provide sufficient retention time and trapping capability. Average daily flows to the proposed wetlands range from about 10,000 to 50,000 m3/d-which. would require wetland areas of 100 to 500 acres for effective treatment. The areas of the proposed wetlands range from 17 to 38 acres, so only a small amount of pollutant removal is expected. Based on data summarized in Novotny and Olem (1994), minimal nutrient removal capabilities of 10% of influent total nitrogen and 5% of influent total phosphorus are assigned to these wetlands for scoping purposes. Total estimated removal of nutrient load under average flow and future land use conditions with water supply ordinances is as follows: Sub-watershed Total Phosphorus (kg/yr) Total Nitrogen (kg/yr) Deep River 1 590 9,200 Deep River 2 220 5,040 Muddy Creek 1 70 1,250 Muddy Creek 2 10 130 TOTAL 890 15,620 Urban Stormwater and Development Stormwater Controls ~~'~~ °~ ~~~~ ru~~C None of the municipalities in the watershed have large-scale centralized Stormwater collection systems or Stormwater utilities operating or planned for the Randleman Lake watershed. For the majority of the most urbanized areas (in and around High Point and Jamestown), there are no piped Stormwater collection systems, mainly diffuse drainage. New developments are subject to stormwater control under the Watershed Ordinances discussed above. Most commercial and industrial development prior to the Watershed Ordinance does not have any type of onsite stormwater retention facilities. Piedmont Triad Regional Water Authority 3-17 Randleman Lake Nutrient Reduction .Strate~ry and Implementation Plan Draft (February 1 >98) Most of the water supply overlay districts for Randleman Lake include a high density option, in which increased impervious surface coverage is allowed if structural control of stormwater is included in a project. State Regulations for WS-IV watersheds require controlling runoff from the first inch of rainfall for the high density option. All jurisdictions within the watershed have adopted requirements for stormwater controls, as shown in Table 15. All of the local jurisdictions in the Randleman Lake watershed have ordinances which meet or exceed the minimum requirements of the state regulations. As shown in Table 15, many of the localities have stormwater control requirements in Low Density as well as High Density developments. Greensboro and Kernersville require that the engineered stormwater controls be designed to control 85% of total suspended solids, in addition to the State requirement of controlling the first inch of rainfall. It should be noted that several of the jurisdictions (Randolph County, Randleman, Archdale, and Forsyth County) do not permit High Density development within the water supply watershed, and therefore do not specify any requirements for stormwater control. Where stormwater control is required, wet detention ponds are generally the preferred control method, although some of the ordinances allow for the use of other approved control methods such as natural infiltration areas. The effect of the Watershed Ordinance requirements for stormwater control is evident for recent commercial and industrial development in the City Lake and Oakdale watersheds. Development prior to the Watershed Ordinance generally does not have any type of onsite stormwater retention. However, any construction or development which has taken place after the implementation of the Watershed Ordinance has been required to comply with this ordinance by limiting impervious cover or construction onsite detention/treatment ponds. Due to the high land costs within these watershed areas, most developers have chosen onsite detention facilities as a method of complying with the ordinance. It is estimated by the City staff that approximately 75 onsite detention ponds for the treatment of stormwater runoff have been constructed within the designated watershed critical areas. These detention ponds have contributing drainage areas ranging from 10 to 50 acres. Design standards for these onsite detention ponds are included in the Watershed Ordinance. For the purposes of modeling it is assumed that the stormwater detention requirements for high density development result in water quality equivalent to similar development under the low density requirements of the water supply ordinances. Therefore, no additional credit for nutrient removal is assigned to onsite detention ponds. 3.2.3 Non-structural Control on Loads The third component of the Nutrient Reduction Strategy for nonpoint source loads is non- structural control. Non-structural controls generally consist of modifications to land management practices (i.e., use of "Best Management Practices") so that the amount of nutrient load generated in nonpoint runoff is minimized. 3-18 Piedmont Triad Regional WaterAuthnrity Draft (Febrzzary 1998) Section 3 -Nutrient Redzzction Strategy ' Table 15. Stormwater Controls Required by Water Supply Protection Ordinances Crltlcai Area Balance of Watershed Low Densi Develo ment Hi h Densit Develo ment Low Densi Develo ment HI h Densi Develo ment State Regulations No requirements Must control runoff from first No requirements Must control runoff from first inch of rainfall inch of rainfall Guilford County If built-upon area 12°/ or less, Must control runoff from first If site does not score 100, Must control runoff from first permanent infiltration area or inch of rainfall then control first 1/2" by one t" of rainfall with wet runoff control fof first 1/2" of of a number of approved detention pond rainfall aver total drainage methods area If built-upon area > 12%. must control runoff from first inch of rainfall _ Greensboro If built-upon area 12% or less, Control of first 1" of rainfall Not required, but will increase Control of first 1" of rainfall permanent infiltration area or and 85% of TSS, with wet ability to meet performance and 85% of TSS, with wet runoff control of first 1" of detention pond or other BMP standards (scoresheet) detention pond or other BMP rainfall and 85% of TSS If built-upon area > 12%, must control runoff from first inch of rainfall and 85% of TSS High Pofnt If <= 1 dull ac or 6% built- Wet detention pond or If <= 1 dull ac or 6% built- Wet detention pond or upon area, no specific regional runoff control, in upon area, no specific regional runoff control, in requirements. compliance with City's requirements. compliance with City's Stormwater Guidelines Stormwater Guidelines Other low density may use of Other low density must meet one of 5 alternate measures, performance standards in compliance with City's (scoresheet) or apply an Stormwater Guidelines approved stormwater control measure Jamestown If <= 1 dull ac or 6% built- Wet detention pond or If <= 1 dull ac or 6% built- Wet detention pond or upon area, no specific regional runoff control, in upon area, no specific regional runoff control, in requirements. compliance with High Point's requirements. compliance with High Point's Stormwater Guidelines Stormwater Guidelines Other low density may use of Other low density must meet one of 5 alternate measures, performance standards incompliance with High (scoresheet) or apply an Point's Stormwater approved stormwater control Guidelines measure Randolph County No specific requirements in NA (no option provided for No specific requirements in NA (no option provided for the watershed protection high density development) the watershed protection high density development) ordinances. ordinances. Randleman No specific requirements in NA (no option provided for No specific requirements in NA (no option provided for the watershed protection high density development) the watershed protection high density development) ordinances. ordinances. Archdale NA (no Randleman Lake NA (no Randleman Lake No specific requirements in NA (no option provided for Critical Area within Archdale Critical Area within Archdale the watershed protection high density development) jurisdiction) 'urisdiction) ordinances. Forsyth County None required. Regulations NA (no option provided for None required. Regulations NA (no option provided for stipulate that impervious area high density development) stipulate that impervious area high density development) be sited and designed to be sited and designed to minimize runoff and limit minimize runoff and limit concentrated runoff. concentrated runoff. Kernersville NA (no Randleman Lake NA (no Randleman Lake No specific requirements in Wet detention pond designed Critical Area within Critical Area within the watershed protection to control first 1" of rainfall Kernersville jurisdiction) Kernersville jurisdiction ordinances. and 85% of TSS Agricultural Cropland Best Management Practices (BMPs) Erosion from cropland can be a significant source of sediment and nutrient loading to water bodies unless proper management practices are followed. Cropland BMPs are developed as site- specific systems of practices designed to reduce erosion and nonpoint source pollution. Soil Piedmont Triad Regional Water Authority 3-19 Randleman Lake Nutrient Reduction Strategy and Implementation Plan Draft (February 1998) erodibility, slope length, cropping factors, and practice factors are all considered in conservation planning. A combination of rotation, tillage practices, and strip cropping are used to develop the best system of cropland BMPs. According to NRCS District Conservationists, there are 241 agricultural Soil Erosion Control Plans in the Guilford Co. portion of the watershed, 166 in Randolph Co., and 50 in the Forsyth Co. portion of the watershed. NRCS estimates that there are approximately 150 locations within the Guilford Co. portion of the watershed that are registered as farms but do not have a soil conservation plan. Within the Randolph Co. portion of the watershed there are estimated to be approximately 250 locations registered as farms which do not have a soil conservation plan. Forsyth Co. has approximately 25 registered sites without control plans. Most of the listed sites without plans have either been developed (but not removed from the list) or consist of pasture land with no tillage occurring on the property. Most of the Soil Erosion Control Plans are for Subclass "e" crop lands. Subclass "e" land is made up of soils where the susceptibility to erosion is the dominant limitation for cropland use. A combination of several conservation practices may be needed on cultivated fields to control erosion and provide for proper water disposal. The practices typically used include the following: • Conservation Cropping Sequence (1-corn, 2-small grain - no till soybeans) • Conservation Tillage • Crop Residue Use • Grassed Waterways The primary resource concerns that are addressed by these conservation practices are shown in Table 16. Table 16. Primary Resource Concerns Addressed by Agricultural Soil Erosion Control Plans Erosion Control Water Disposal Resource Management Water Management Offsite Effects Conservation Cropping Sequence x x x Conservation Tillage x x x Crop Residue Use x x x Grassed Waterwa s x x x The current rate of implementation of BMPs on crop land is estimated by NRCS District Conservationists to be 90%. For future conditions with the Nutrient Reduction Strategy in place it is assumed that BMP implementation on cropland will be increased to 100%. However, area in cropland is expected to decline sharply in the watershed, resulting in only a small net reduction in nutrient load. Estimated reductions in nutrient loads achieved by enhanced agricultural BMP implementation are shown in Table 17. 3-20 Piedmont Triad Regional Water Authority 1 Draft (February 1994) Section 3 -Nutrient Reduction Slrategy Table 17. Estimated Reduction in Nonpoint Nutrient Loads by Lake Segment (lcg/yr) Achieved by Enhanced BMP Implementation on Crop Land for Future Land Use Conditions Segment Low Flow Year High Flow Year Average Flow Year P N P N P N Oak Hollow 0 0 0 0 0 0 City Lake 0 0 0 0 0 0 Deep River 1 10 50 40 130 30 80 Deep River 2 40 110 140 430 80 240 Deep River 3A 20 60 90 230 50 140 Deep River 3B 10 20 20 70 10 30 Muddy Creek 1 30 80 90 240 50 140 Muddy Creek 2 20 50 110 230 50 120 Near Dam 20 50 130 290 70 150 TOTAL 150 420 600 1,600 330 900 Animal Operations Concentrated animal operations, such as dairies, can provide significant sources of nutrient input to water bodies. On June 21, 1996 the NC general Assembly passed Senate Bill 1217, An Act to Implement Recommendations of the Blue Ribbon Study Commission on Agricultural Waste. The new law establishes that, effective January 1, 1997, permits are required for operation of animal waste management systems under a general permit system. This is implemented in the NC Administrative Code, Section 15A NCAC 2H .0200. Under the general permit system, animal operations are not required to obtain individual permits, but those above the threshold numbers are required to submit documentation certified by recognized authorities showing they are complying with regulations established for animal waste systems in the general permit. Animal waste management systems must have the following components: • odor BMPs; • insect control BMPs; • methods for disposing of dead animals; • BMPs for riparian buffers or equivalent controls along perennial streams; • an emergency management plan designed to prevent lagoon failure and to minimize environmental damage from lagoon overflows; Piedmont Triad Regional Water Authority 3-21 Randleman Lake Nutrient Reduction Strategy and Implementation Plan Draft (Febrarury 1998) provisions for testing waste to determine nutrient content and testing of soils where waste is to be applied; provisions of a plan for applying waste at a rate that assures a balance between nitrogen application and nitrogen requirements of crops; and provisions for keeping records of the required waste and soil testing and waste application requirements. The law also establishes a process under which each animal operation must undergo an operational review and a regulatory inspection at least once per year. The law includes provisions for fees, special orders of consent for getting an operation into compliance, operator certification and training, and the permitting schedule. General permits are being issued over a five-year period, commencing on January 1, 1997. There are no animal operations within the Guilford Co. portion of the watershed. Within the Randolph Co. portion of the watershed there are three farms with animal waste management plans: Buttke Dairy, Cashatt Dairy, and Green Valley Farm. These three farms together have a design capacity of 1,750 dairy cattle. Nutrient loading from these operations has not been simulated separately from other agricultural operations; therefore, an explicit nutrient reduction due to animal waste management has not been included in model predictions. Waste management plans are, however, important to ensure that these farms do not become a source of excessive nutrient loads. Stream Buffer and Setback Requirements State water supply regulations (15A NCAC 2B.0211 (f)(3)(B)(VI)) require the maintenance of a vegetative buffer between all new development activities and perennial streams draining to a WS-IV water. The minimum buffer width is 30 feet for low-density development, and 100 feet for development under the high-density option. No buffer is required for intermittent streams. All of the local jurisdictions in the Randleman Lake watershed have ordinances which meet or exceed these minimum requirements, as shown by Table 18. Randolph County and all of the Guilford County jurisdictions require wider buffers around the reservoir itself. In addition, High Point and Jamestown require buffers around some intermittent waters (open drainage channels). Randolph Co., Randleman, and Archdale all specify a 50' buffer width in the critical area. All buffers are to remain vegetated and undeveloped, with some exceptions allowed for road and greenway crossings and water-dependent structures. The stream buffer requirements were assumed to be not significantly different from those in place in the northern Virginia watersheds from which the nutrient export coefficients were obtained. Therefore, no additional nutrient reduction component was assigned to the stream buffer requirements. 1 3_22 Piedmont Triad Regional Water Authority , Draft (February 1>98) Section 3 -Nutrient Reduction Strate~ry ' Table 18. Stream Buffer Requirements in Water Supply Protection Ordinances Around Other Perennial Waters Intermittent Waters Reservoir Low Density High Density Develo ment Develo ment State Regulations 30' 30' 100' No specific requirements. Guilford County 200' (Tier 1) 30' 100' No specific requirements. Greensboro 200' (Tier 1) 30' 100' No specific requirements. Protected buffer around open drainage channels. Width High Point 200' (Tier 1) 30' 100' varies from 10' to 100-year floodplain contour, depending on area of drainage basin. Protected buffer around open drainage channels. Width Jamestown 200' (Tier 1) 30' 100' varies from 15' to 100-year floodplain contour, depending on area of drainage basin. Randolph County 100' S0' NA No specific requirements. Randleman 50' 50' NA No specific requirements. Archdale 50' 50' NA No specific requirements. Forsyth County 30' 30' NA No specific requirements. Kernersville 30' 30' 100' No specific requirements. Erosion and Sedimentation Ordinances ' The NC Sedimentation Pollution Control Act of 1973 addresses the issue of soil erosion and sedimentation. This act prohibits visible sediment from washing off construction sites. The law ' does not specify a rigid set of practices; rather, they require the land developer to prepare an erosion and sedimentation control plan and employ appropriate measures to meet the ' performance standards. This law is generally administered by the Land Quality Section of NCDENR, but local governments may gain authority by adopting local sedimentation control ordinances at least as stringent as the State standards. Greensboro, Guilford County, Jamestown and High Point have their own sedimentation control ordinances, while Archdale, Randleman, and Randolph County are regulated by the regional offices of NCDENR. Piedmont Triad Regional Water Authority 3-23 Randleman Luke Nutrient Reduction Strategy and Implernentution Plcrn Draft (February 1998) A soil erosion and sedimentation control plan is necessary if the land-disturbing activity: 1. Exceeds one (1) acre; (State and ordinances) 2. Will take place on highly erodible soils with a "k" factor greater than 0.36 in a watershed critical area; (ordinances) 3. Includes a pond or retention structure in a watershed critical area; (ordinances) 4. Will take place in tier 1 or tier 2 of a watershed critical area (ordinances) The NC Sedimentation Pollution Control Act and the local sedimentation control ordinances listed above all specify the following mandatory standards for land-disturbing activity: 1. Buffer Zone: A sufficient buffer zone must be retained or established along any natural watercourse or lake to contain all visible sediment from the site in the first 25% of the buffer strip nearest the disturbed area. 2. Graded Slopes and Fills: State -the angle of cut-and-fill slopes must be no greater than that sufficient for proper stabilization. Graded slopes must be planted with vegetation or otherwise stabilized within 30 working days. Ordinances -The angle for graded slopes and fills shall be no steeper than two (2) to one (1) slope if they are to be stabilized with vegetative cover. Slopes or fills steeper than two (2) to one (1) slope must be protected by structures. Graded slopes must be planted with vegetation or otherwise stabilized within 30 working days. 3. Ground Cover: Off-site sedimentation must be prevented, and a ground cover sufficient to prevent erosion must be provided within 30 working days or 120 calendar days after activity is completed, whichever is shorter. 4. Prior plan approval: An erosion and sedimentation control plan must be submitted at least 30 days before land disturbance begins for any site larger than 1 acre. Erosion and sedimentation control plays an important part in controlling nutrient loads, particularly during construction. The ordinances are not credited with additional nutrient reduction; rather they are a proactive step to help prevent nutrient loads greater than those estimated from export coefficients. On-site Wastewater Disposal The counties within the watershed of the proposed Lake Randleman follow State standards for on-site waste disposal. NC General Statutes, Chapter 130A Public Health, Article 11 Wastewater Systems, 333-343: governs the treatment and disposal of domestic-type sewage from septic tank systems. Under NC law, an Improvement Permit or Construction Authorization must be received from the local health department (i.e., Guilford, Forsyth, or Randolph Counties) before a septic system can be installed. The local health department must evaluate the site to determine if a permit could be issued. 3-24 Piedmont Ti•iad Regional Water Authority t 1 1 Draft (February 1918) Section 3 -Nutrient Rechrction Strategy The site evaluation includes the following factors: topography and landscape position, soil characteristics, soil wetness, soil depth, restrictive horizons, and available space. These factors are classified as Suitable, Provisionally Suitable, and Unsuitable. Sites are classified as: • Suitable -may be utilized for a septic system • Provisionally Suitable -may be utilized for a septic system, but have moderate limitations • Unsuitable -have severe limitations for the installation and use of a septic system If all factors are classified the same, that classification will prevail. Where there is a variation in classification of the criteria, the most limiting uncorrectable characteristics shall be used to determine the overall site classification, as shown in Table 19. i Table 19. Factors Determining Suitability for Septic Systems Factors Suitable Provisionally Unsuitable Suitable Topography (slope) < 15% 15% - 30% >30% Soil Characteristics texture sandy, coarse loamy tine, loamy others structure crumb and granular clayey platty, prismatic clay mineralogy slightly expansive expansive organic yes Soil Wetness >48 in. below soil 36-48 in. below soil <36 in. below soil surface surface surface Soil Depth (to saprolite, >48 in. 36-48 in. <36 in. rock, or parent material) Restrictive Horizons >48 in. 36-48 in. <36 in. (3in. or more in thickness) Available Space based on square footage of nitrification field required for the long-term acceptance rate Location of septic systems is subject to a variety of restrictions. Specifically, every septic system shall be located at least the minimum horizontal distance from the following: 1. any private water supply source, including any well or spring, 100 feet; 2. any public water supply source, 100 feet; 3. streams classified as WS-I ,100 feet; 4. waters classified as SA, 100 feet from mean high water mark; 5. other coastal waters, 50 feet, from mean high water mark; 6. any other stream, canal, marsh, or other surface waters, 50 feet; 7. any Class I or Class II reservoir, 100 feet, from normal pool elevation; 8. any permanent storm water retention pond, 50 feet from flood pool elevation; 9. any other lake or pond, 50 feet, from normal pool elevation; Piedmont Triad Regional Water Authority 3-25 Randleman Luke Nutrient Reduction Stratefry and Implementation Plan Draft (February 1998) 10. any building foundation, 5 feet; 11. any basement, 15 feet; 12. any property line, 10 feet; 13. top of slope of embankments, 15 feet; 14. any water line, 10 feet; 15. drainage systems: A. Interceptor drains, foundation drains, and storm water diversions i. upslope, 10 feet ii. sideslope, 15 feet iii. downslope, 25 feet B. Groundwater lowering ditches and devices, 25 feet 16. any swimming pool, 25 feet; 17. any other nitrification field, 20 feet Regulation of on-site wastewater disposal plays an important part in controlling nutrient loads, particularly in limiting the number of failing septic systems. Septic system failure rate is not considered separately in the watershed model, and is not considered a major source at the whole- watershed scale. The ordinances are not credited with additional nutrient reduction; rather they are a proactive step to help prevent nutrient loads greater than those estimated from export coefficients. 3.2.4 Education and Outreach Programs PTRWA will work with its members and other jurisdictions in the watershed to conduct education and outreach on the importance of public pollution prevention measures in helping to achieve nutrient reduction goals in the Randleman Lake watershed. The general public is likely to be unaware of the challenges associated with achieving the reduction goals and their role in the process. The implementation plan will include developing information and presentation materials that raise public awareness of the impacts of fertilizer runoff from commercial and residential lawns and other common causes and sources of nutrient loading. Existing means, such as conservation district outreach programs and Greensboro's storm water management outreach program, will be used as a foundation for this strategy component. Greensboro's public education component of its water conservation program won the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Region IV's first-place "Public Education" award in 1997, and knowledge from that successful effort can be used to help design the public education component for the Nutrient Reduction Strategy. PTRWA will provide information to the existing outreach programs summarizing the goals of the Nutrient Reduction Strategy and the responsibilities of the public in helping achieve the goals. Existing materials on best management practices for commercial and home use of fertilizers can be used in this context. 3-26 Piedmont Triad Regional Water Authority t f Draft (Februury 1998) Section 3 -Nutrient Reduction Strategy 3.2.5 Monitoring and Enforcement Monitoring and enforcement is an important part of the Nutrient Reduction Strategy. This component helps ensure that the load reductions estimated in previous sections will actually be achieved. All of the local watershed ordinances adopted to date include mechanisms to ensure compliance with their site development standards. Each locality has designated an "Enforcement Officer" or "Watershed Administrator" (typically the Town Manager or Planning Director) who ' has responsibility for issuing permits pursuant to the locality's water supply watershed protection ordinance. In these localities, all development plans within a water supply watershed are reviewed by this individual, or by a designated review committee (the Plannmg Board, the Board of Adjustment, or an appointed Watershed Review Board), prior to issuance of any building permits. No building permit is issued unless the proposed development is found to be in compliance with the locality's watershed protection ordinance. In the Randolph County jurisdictions, the localities also review the development after construction is completed, and will not issue an occupancy permit unless the development is found to meet all requirements of the watershed protection ordinance. In those jurisdictions where High Density development is allowed, the localities require approval of the required stormwater controls by a North Carolina registered professional engineer (or, in the case of Kernersville, a landscape architect). Violators of provisions of the watershed protection ordinances may also be subject to criminal and civil ' penalties. In the case that a development is not approved, the developer may appeal this decision to the designated review committee. The Development Ordinance of The City of High Point requires that development activities which relate to zoning, subdivision and land use will be monitored and enforced by an Enforcement Officer. The Enforcement Officer is responsible for issuing all permits required by the Ordinance for development activity such as grading, building, land use, flood plain development, erosion control, and others as required. Permit applications are submitted by the property owner or his authorized agent and reviewed and processed by the Enforcement Officer in accordance with the requirements of the Ordinance. Once development and/or land-disturbing activity has begun, the Enforcement Officer will conduct periodic inspections and investigations. The Enforcement Officer has the right upon presentation of proper credentials to enter on any premises, public or private, at any reasonable hour, for the purpose of inspection and determination of plan compliance. If a violation is found by the Enforcement Officer, the owner or occupant is notified of the violation. The owner or occupant shall immediately remedy the violation. If the owner or occupant fails to take prompt corrective action, the Enforcement Officer will give the owner or occupant a written Notice of Violation indicating the following: 1) that the land, building, structure or use is in violation of the Ordinance, 2) the nature of the violation, and citation ofthe Section(s) of the Ordinance violated, and 3) the measures necessary to remedy the violation. 3.3 Summary and Evaluation of Proposed Nutrient Reduction Strategies This section summarizes the expected results of the proposed plan, including nutrient loads and BATHTUB model results and analysis of likelihood of meeting targets. Piedmont Triad Regional Water Authority 3-27 Randleman Lake Nutrient Reduction Strategy and Implementation Plan Draft (February ! 9>8) 3.3.1 Point Source Controls For future conditions at buildout flow of 26 MGD, proposed reductions in effluent concentrations from the High Point Eastside WWTP will provide a reduction of 50,880 kg/yr total phosphorus (88%) from existing loads. An additional 910 kg/yr phosphorus will be eliminated through connection of minor dischargers. Nitrogen loads from the WWTP under the Nutrient Reduction Strategy will be reduced by 74,660 kg/yr (26%) from existing loads, while nitrogen loads from minor dischargers will be reduced by 3,640 kg/yr. 3.3.2 Estimated Effectiveness of Nonpoint Source Control Strategies Estimated reductions in nonpoint source nutrient loads associated with the proposed Nutrient Reduction Strategy are primarily attributed to changes in predicted commercial and residential density achieved under the water supply protection ordinances. Additional reductions are achieved through increased use of agricultural BMPs, constructed wetlands and stormwater controls. Figure 10 and Table 20 summarize the estimated nutrient loads by lake segment for fixture conditions with the Nutrient Reduction Strategy in place. Nonpoint source loads are expected to increase relative to existing conditions, due to increased development, but this impact is mitigated by the Nutrient Reduction Strategy. In an average flow 12000 10000 ~, so0o ~ 6000 N O L y 4000 0 r a 2000 0 Wit out W r finances Wit r mances Oak Hollow Deeo 1 Deep 3A Mud 1 Dam High Point Deep 2 Deep 36 Mud 2 Sub-watershed Figure 10. Future Nonpoint Source Phosphorus Loads with and without Watershed Protection Ordinances 3.28 Piedmont Triad Regional Water Authority w 1 Draft (February 1998) Section 3 -Nutrient Reduction Strategy Table 20. Estimated Nutrient Loads by Lake Segment (kg/yr) for Future Conditions, with Nutrient Reduction Strategy, WWTP at 0.2 mg/l Total Phosphorus and 6 mg/( Total Nitrogen Segment Low Flow Year High Flow Year Average Flow Year P N P N P N Oak Hollow 3,780 34,830 10,690 103,320 6,980 69,250 City Lake 3,080 28,210 9,660 93,710 5,710 57,470 Deep River 1 (NPS and 4,120 34,040 11,870 111,950 8,110 76,470 minor PS) Deep River 1 (WWTP, at 7,190 215,690 7,190 215,690 7,190 215,690 26 MGD) Deep River 2 2,210 22,950 6,840 79,800 4,560 54,690 Deep River 3A 310 5,180 1,200 19,590 690 12,000 Deep River 3B 90 1,490 350 5,650 200 3,460 Muddy Creek 1 2,530 26,320 7,280 76,400 4,460 48,970 Muddy Creek 2 160 2,460 700 10,030 400 6,220 Near Dam 190 2,910 940 13,390 540 8,420 TOTAL 23,650 374,080 56,710 729,510 38,830 552,640 Total Nonpoint Source, 16,460 158,390 49,520 513,820 31,640 336,950 Future Conditions with Nutrient Reduction Strategy Total Nonpoint, Existing 8,890 96,540 29,680 375,220 18,900 243,870 Conditions Total Nonpoint, Future 22,990 203,470 61,720 589,150 39,640 386,190 Conditions without Nutrient Reduction Strategy TOTAL, Existing 66,960 386,890 87,750 665,580 76,970 534,220 Conditions TOTAL, Future 58,940 419,160 97,670 804,840 75,590 601,880 Conditions without Nutrient Reduction Strategy Piedmont Triad Regional Water Authority 3-29 i Randleman Lake Nutrient Reduction Strategy and Implementation Plan Draft (February 1998) year, the proposed Nutrient Reduction Strategy is expected to result in a reduction of 8,000 kg/yr (20%) total phosphorus loading from nonpoint sources versus future conditions without the strategy, and a reduction of 49,240 kg/yr (13%) in total nitrogen loading from nonpoint sources. 3.3.3 Net Load Reductions under Nutrient Reduction Strategy As summarized in Table 20, combining the point and nonpoint load reductions for the proposed nutrient strategy is expected to result in a reduction during an average flow year of 36,760 kg/yr (49%) of total phosphorus compared to future conditions without the Nutrient Reduction Strategy, and a reduction of 38,140 kg/yr (50%) versus existing conditions. For total nitrogen, the proposed Nutrient Reduction Strategy is expected to result in a reduction of 49,240 kg/yr (8%) of total nitrogen load versus future conditions without the Nutrient Reduction Strategy (during an average flow year), although total loading will increase relative to existing conditions. As techniques for additional nutrient removal at the WWTP prove feasible it will be possible to further reduce nutrient loading levels toward the identified target loads. For the upstream segments, the total phosphorus load to Deep River 1 with the WWTP at 26 MGD is approximately 15,300 kg/yr, while the load to Muddy Creek 1 is approximately 4,460 kg/yr for future land use and average flow conditions. Despite the reductions in load associated with the Nutrient Reduction Strategy, these loads remain well in excess of the assimilative capacities for phosphorus in these segments, estimated at 1,800 and 1,700 kg/yr, respectively. Reaching the goal in Deep River 1 will only occur when the High Point Eastside WWTP effluent can be reduced to 0.008-0.025 mg/1 total phosphorus. 3.3.4 Estimated Chlorophyll a Response with Nutrient Reduction Strategies Algal response is determined by the combination of nutrient loading and flow patterns. The Nutrient Reduction Strategy results in a reduction in total nutrient loads, but also reduces dilution flows by placing restrictions on impervious surface cover which promote direct runoff rather than infiltration of rainfall. Table 21 summarizes chlorophyll a predictions for future conditions with the Nutrient Reduction Strategy in place, and can be compared to Table 8. (Note that there is no change in predicted concentrations within Oak Hollow Lake and City Lake because water supply protection ordinances are already in place for these reservoirs). At average and high flows, the Nutrient Reduction Strategy results in a small decrease in predicted chlorophyll a concentrations in all segments of the proposed Randleman Lake. For instance, at average flow the predicted concentration in the Deep River 1 segment declines from 95 µg/1 under existing conditions and 80 µg/1 for future conditions without the Nutrient Reduction Strategy to 67 µg/1 for future conditions with the Nutrient Reduction Strategy. 3-30 Piedmont Triad Regional Water Authority 1 1 1 i t Draft (February 1998) Section 3 -Nutrient Reduction Strate,~ry Table 21. Chlorophyll a Predictions for Future Conditions with Nutrient Reduction Strategy and WWTP at 26 MGD and 0.2 mg/1 Total Phosphorus Lake Segment Low Flow Year High Flow Year Average Flow Year (see Figure 3) Chl a (µg/I) Nuisance Frequency Chl a (µg/I) Nuisance Frequency Chl a (µg/1) Nuisance Frequency Oak Hollow 15 2.5% 17 3.8% 17 3.4% City Lake 22 9.1% 23 9.9% 23 10.4% Deep River 1 81 83.0% 61 67.1% 67 73.3% Deep River 2 32 24.3% 27 16.7% 29 19.0% Deep River 3A 17 3.7% 17 3.5% 17 3.4% Deep River 3B 12 0.9% 12 0.9% 12 0.9% Muddy Crk 1 26 14.2% 26 15.5% 26 14.4% Muddy Crk 2 12 0.8% 14 1.4% 13 1.0% Near Dam 8 0.1 % 12 0.7% 10 0.4% Lake Randleman Average 20 19 19 Piedmont Triad Regional Water Authority 3-31 1 i t 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Draft (February 1>98) 4. IMPLEMENTATION PLAN Section •l -Implementation Plan PTRWA will work with its members to implement the Strategy, monitor progress and effectiveness, and adapt Strategy-based management actions as needed to reach interim and long- term nutrient reduction goals. The Authority will track overall implementation of the Strategy, including but not limited to the following methods and responsibilities for implementation. 4.1 Schedule for Implementation Section 3 of this document outlines management actions to reduce existing nutrient loads and mitigate nutrient loading impacts associated with firture growth. The schedule for implementing these measures is detailed in Table 22. Table 22. Schedule for Implementation of Management Actions Description of Management Proposed Schedule Action Set up PTRWA management Establish plan administration within 6 months of EMC plan plan administration approval Establish PTRWA data Refine monitoring plan (e.g., perform reconnaissance; establish collection, information specific sampling sites, flow measurement methods, field and management, and assessment laboratory methods) and assessment methods (e.g., determine how protocols and means annual nutrient loading estimates will be calculated, and relate to data collection), within 12 months of EMC plan approval - Establish interlocal agreements between PTRWA and local jurisdictions to share residential and commercial development information and land use data, within 12-18 months of EMC plan approval - Establish informations management system to quality assure, store, share, assess, and present data, within 12-18 months of EMC plan approval Implement PTRWA Baseline monitoring prior to impoundment of reservoir monitoring program Full monitoring program after reservoir impounded Reduce High Point Eastside Facility renovation expected by July, 2001; PTRWA will also work WWTP effluent TP with High Point to have the interlocal agreement providing financial concentration to < 0.2 mg/l incentives in place by Jul}~, 2001 Complete construction of 6 To be completed prior to filling of the reservoir area wetlands projects to filter water in these drainage areas Reevaluate Nutrient Within 3-5 years of filling of the reservoir, and every 5 years Reduction Strategy and thereafter coordinated with DWQ's 5-year management cycle for the Implementation Plan Cape Fear River Basin Piedmont Triad Regional Water Authority 4-1 Randleman Lake Nutrient Reduction Strategy and Implementation Plan Draft (February 1998) In addition to management actions detailed in Section 3, Table 22 includes the proposed schedule for implementation of the administrative structure and monitoring program, and for reevaluation of the overall Nutrient Reduction Strategy and Implementation Plan. PTRWA will be responsible for tracking progress in adhering to the schedule. 4.2 Monitoring Program PTRWA will establish a monitoring program to track implementation of strategies and evaluate their effectiveness. 4.2.1 Tracking Implementation Activities Monitoring programmatic indicators of plan implementation will help PTWRA ensure that proposed actions are followed through with, and provide the Authority with information that is key to analyzing the effectiveness of management actions. Programmatic indicators to be tracked by PTRWA are listed in Table 23. Table 23. Proposed Programmatic Indicators to Track Plan Implementation Description of Programmatic Indicator Source of Tracking Information Milestone dates for Plan administration setup PTRWA (e.g., date information management system for plan implementation tracking is in place) Date enhanced treatment process completed for City of High Point High Point Eastside WWTP Date interlocal agreement between City of High PTRWA Point and PTRWA is in place providing financial incentive to meet 0.2 mg/1 total phosphorus goal in Eastside WWTP effluent Dates projects are completed (constructed PTRWA contractors wetlands, regional stormwater ponds) Date by which all local ordinances for water Local jurisdictions within watershed, supply watershed protection are in place; Dates of summarized by PTRWA revisions to water supply watershed protection ordinances by individual jurisdictions Dates environmental monitoring is performed PTRWA Annual progress reports PTRWA Dates of strategy and plan reevaluation and PTRWA amendment 4-2 Piedmont Triad Regional Water Authority i Draft (February 1990 Section ;f - Lnplementation Plan 4.2.2 Tracking Environmental Effectiveness 1 t Monitoring environmental impacts of plan implementation will allow PTRWA to gauge overall effectiveness of the Nutrient Reduction Strategy and Implementation Plan. Environmental indicators to be tracked by PTRWA are listed in Table 24. Table 24. Proposed Environmental Indicators to Track Plan Implementation Description of Environmental Indicator Source of Tracking Information Annual Point Source TP and TN Loads Facility monitoring data [assuming permission can be received to gain onsite access, small domestic facilities will be periodically sampled by PTRWA] Annual Nonpoint Source TP and TN Loads Local jurisdictions report new residential and commercial development information including area of project, density, impervious surface area, type of land use/land cover project is replacing, and BMP details including SW detention - Local health departments report new onsite septic systems and existing systems that are failing - NRCS and conservation district data on BMP implementation, animal operations and cropping Tributary Water Quality PTRWA monitoring program (see details below) - Total Phosphorus, Orthophosphate, Total Inorganic Nitrogen, Total Organic Nitrogen [concentrations and loading] Lake Water Quality PTRWA monitoring program (see details below) - Total Phosphorus, Orthophosphate, Total Inorganic Nitrogen, Total Organic Nitrogen, Chlorophyll a, Temperature, p13, Secchi Depth, Dissolved Oxygen Downstream Deep River Water Quality PTRWA monitoring program (see details below) - Total Phosphorus, Orthophosphate, Total Inorganic Nitrogen, Total Organic Nitrogen [concentrations and loading] Although PTRWA will be responsible for conducting the instream monitoring program, the Authority will depend heavily on its local jurisdiction members to report changes in land use/land cover from development. Local jurisdictions, therefore, will be responsible for tracking and reporting this information in a timely manner and in a format that follows protocols for Piedmont Triad Regional Water Authority 4-3 Randleman Lake Nutrient Reduction Strategy and Implementation Plan Draft (Fehruary 1995) information management and quality assurance/quality control (QA/QC). PTRWA will pursue interlocal agreements with local government jurisdictions to ensure commitment to this process. ili tate data exchange. Key sources In addition, PTRWA will coordinate with other agencies to fac of information will include the Division of Water Quality NPDES discharge monitoring data, local health department septic system data, and NRCS and Conservation District data on agricultural best management practices being used within the watershed. Tributary and Downstream Deep River Sampling Program Tributary monitoring data will be needed to help estimate nutrient loading being delivered to Randleman Lake. Proposed monitoring sites include each of the significant tributaries, including ' (see Figure 11 for approximate locations): 1. Bull Run at mouth 2. Deep River above confluence with Bull Run 3. Richland Creek upstream of WWTP outfall* 4. Reddicks Creek at mouth 5. Hickory Creek at mouth 6. Muddy Creek at mouth [* Coordination with DWQ and High Point Eastside is needed to ensure adequate effluent , nutrient monitoring data are collected to provide accurate annual point source loading estimates for the Richland Creek subwatershed.] Monitoring downstream of the Randleman Lake dam will be conducted to support calculations of nutrients trapped in the lake on an annual basis. Figure 11 indicates an approximate station location for: 7. Deep River below Randleman Lake dam and above Randleman WWTP outfall PTRWA lans to conduct ear round monitorin at the tributa and downstream monitorin p Y g rY g locations, with a minimum of monthly sampling. Sampling will performed such that a range of flows are captured, including base and high flow conditions. In addition to the parameters listed in the indicator table, flow will be measured so that phosphorus and nitrogen loads can be estimated. PTRWA anticipates using a combination of grab samples and some selected composite sampling over high-flow events. Specifics of the monitoring program will be worked out during the first 12 months following EMC approval of the overall Nutrient Reduction Strategy and implementation plan. Lake Sampling Program Monitoring lake sites will be critical to evaluating the effectiveness of nutrient loading management strategies. One station will be located in the upper Deep River segment of the lake, which is expected to be the most heavily impacted by nutrient loads. Monitoring in the 4-4 Piedmont Triad Regional Water Authority 1 Draft (.Iunuary 199b) Seclinn ,! - Imhlemenlation Plan CEffU15VILLE /~~ I~~ te r ` ~ ~ ~ ~ ' ~ ' ` ' ~ ~ ~ ~ ` ' l , ~ i ~ , ~ ; ~ ~ ~ , ~ _ ~ ` C I ~, a ~* ~ - ~, ce~~[ a n ~u , . ~ ~ O+I A M~. LO'A 1 £ ~f7~ `S ( 4 MlGN •pIMT 'O ~ = ypA L/RE ` ~ ,~, [+ 1 ` ~J ~` cif TOf M ' ~ ' a ` ~ o_ ~ ~, ` MM /01 /T ~ ~`, i / Q cRtr~ ~ .~ RiCN~ , `~ •1 ~~~ ~ •YIL10110 COyM~• A~rpO~-~ COur~r 1 L~ i• utnoLLE ~`oo ~ yfa` ~ ` I~r~rr~~ ~ ` ` MOAA• ~ A roximate location of ~ ~ ~ proposed stream monitoring ~ R w°oi~,u°r ~ ~ ~~ ~ l/Rf I t wr ~ Approximate location of ~ WOIEY~N proposed lake monitoring sites ~ ~, f ~• Figure 11. Locations of Proposed Monitoring Sites Piedmont Triad Regional Water Authority 4-5 1 Randleman Lake Nutrient Reduction Strategy and Implementation Plan Draft (February 1998) upper segment of the Muddy Creek arm will provide information on the most sensitive area of , that tributary. A third station will be located near the water supply intake to monitor quality in the lower section of the lake and in an area of high interest given the lake's intended drinking water use. In summary, the proposed lake sites for monitoring include (see Figure 11 for approximate locations): A. Deep River Segment 1 B. Muddy Creek Segment 1 C. Deep River Segment 3B near intake Lake sampling will be performed monthly during the growing season, May through October, of each year. Depth integrated samples over a distance of twice the secchi depth from the surface will be collected for chemical analyses. Temperature, pH, and dissolved oxygen will be recorded at 1-3 meter intervals. Sampling Quality Assurance/Quality Control All samples will be collected and processed using standard operating procedures and quality assurance protocols consistent with monitoring conducted by the North Carolina Division of Water Quality. 4.3 Data Mana ement g PTRWA will develop and maintain computerized data bases to track all programmatic and ' environmental indicator results. A meta-data file on all data coverages will be maintained. PTRWA members will be advised regarding formats and protocols for transferring data, and will be responsible for adhering to QA/QC and other protocols. 4.4 Evaluating and Updating Strategy and Implementation Plan Annual evaluations will be conducted by PTRWA to determine progress made in implementing the plan and achieving strategy goals. An annual progress report will be prepared for the Authority's Board, and copied to DWQ within 3-6 months of the end of each calendar year. The report will include estimates of point and nonpoint source loadings for the previous year, and summaries of tributary and inlake water quality conditions. In each succeeding year, the reports will include comparisons to loading rates and water quality conditions from previous years' monitoring. u datin the Nutrient Reduction Strate The PTRWA Board will be responsible for periodically p g gy and Implementation Plan. The first update is scheduled for 3-5 years from the date of impoundment of Randleman Lake. PTRWA anticipates that the new reservoir will take at least 2-3 years to stabilize with regard to water quality, based on reviewing study results from other large impoundments in the Piedmont area. Therefore, the Authority will need to be careful not to place too much emphasis on the inlake water quality monitoring data during those first 2-3 years 4-6 Piedmont Triad Regional Water Authority t a Draft (February 1998) Section ;l -Implementation Plarr when evaluating effectiveness of the initial plan. A decision on a more specific due date for the plan update will not be determined until after the first 2-3 years of data have been analyzed and evaluated. Piedmont Triad Regional Water Authority 4-7 1 i Draft (February 19>8) References 5. REFERENCES Black & Veatch. 1990. Water Qzrality and Quantity Studies to Support Randleman Lake Environmental Impact Statement, December 1, 1990. Prepared for Piedmont Triad Regional Water Authority, Greensboro, NC. Borden, R.C., J.L. Dorn, J.B. Stillman, and S.K. Liehr. 1996. Evaluation of Ponds and Wetlands for Protection of Public Water Supplies. Report submitted to Water Resources Research Institute of the University of North Carolina, Raleigh, NC. Butcher, J., T. Clements, A. Beach, K. Brewer, D. Korn, N. Archambault, P. Kellar and G. Pesacreta. 1995. Falls Lake Watershed Study, Final report. Prepared for The North Carolina Department of Environment, Health, and Natural Resources. The Cadmus Group, Durham, NC. Davis-Martin-Powell & Associates. 1996. CDM. 1989. Watershed Mana,~lcment Study.• Oak Hollow and City Lake Watersheds. Report to City of High Point and Guilford County, N.C. Camp Dresser & McKee, Raleigh, NC. NCDEM. 1994. Water Quality Monitoring Data for Waters in the Upper Deep River Area, July 28, 1992 -October 7, 19>3. North Carolina Division of Environmental Management, Water Quality Section, Environmental Sciences Branch, Raleigh, NC. NCDWQ. 1996. Cape Fear River 13asinwide Water Quality Management Plan. North Carolina Division of Water Quality, Water Quality Section, Raleigh, NC. Novotny, V. and H. Olem. 1994. Water Quality: Prevention, Identification, and Management of Diffuse Pollution. Van Nostrand Reinhold, New York. Schueler, T.R., P.A. Kumble, and M.A. Heraty. 1992. A Current Assessment of Urban Best Management Practices: Techniques for Reducing Non-Point Source Pollution in the Coastal Zone. Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments, Washington, DC. Tetra Tech. 1997. Randleman Lake Project: Water Quality Considerations.for the Siting and Design of a Drinking Water Treatment Plant, Phase II Report. Tetra Tech, Inc., Research Triangle Park, NC. Walker, W.W., Jr. 1987. Empirical Methods for Predicting Eutrophication in Impoundments. Report 4-Phase III: Applications Manual. U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Technical Report E-81-9. U.S. Army Waterways Experiment Station, Environmental Laboratory, Vicksburg, MS. Piedmont Triad Regional Water Authority 5-1 Randleman Lake Nutrient Reduction Strategy and Implementation Plan Draft (February 1998) Walker, W.W., Jr. 1985. Empirical Methods for Predicting Eutrophication in Impoundments. ' Report 3-Phase II: Model Refinements. U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Technical Report E-81-9. U.S. Army Waterways Experiment Station, Environmental Laboratory, Vicksburg, MS. WPCF. 1990. Natural Systems for Wastewater Treatment. Manual of Practice FD-16. Water Pollution Control Federation, Alexandria, VA. i 5_2 Piedmont Triad Regional Water Authority 1 i t Draft (February 1990 Appendix 1 APPENDIX L EXISTING POINT SOURCE NUTRIENT LOADS High Point Eastside WWTP Existing discharge from the High Point Eastside WWTP is assumed to average 10.5 MGD, with an average phosphorus concentration of 4 mg/l, based on monthly monitoring data collected from January 1986 through December 1989 (Black & Veatch 1990). This is consistent with results from monthly effluent monitoring data for May 1996 through May 1997, which has an average of 3.98 mg/1 total phosphorus. Black & Veatch (1990) reported an average total nitrogen concentration in the effluent of 23 mg/1 from 1986-1989. For the May 1996-May 1997 period, concentrations of total nitrogen varied from 9 to 42 mg/l, with an average of 19.6 mg/l. Average concentration in the effluent was thus assumed to be approximately 20 mg/1 total N. The specification of nutrient chemical form is also an important factor in water quality simulation, since it helps determine the availability of nutrients to algae and the rate of sedimentation losses. Information on phosphorus speciation in the High Point Eastside effluent is not available, but it is unlikely that the phosphorus is 100% orthophosphate, and some conversion to organic forms by bacteria and plankton is expected within the stream reach between the discharge point and the proposed lake pool. Based on recent experience with Durham dischargers and analysis of phosphorus species reported by NCDEM (1994) for 1992-93 at station RL4, in Deep River just below the WWTP discharge, an estimate of 75 percent orthophosphate in the WWTP effluent (as delivered to the proposed lake) appears reasonable. For nitrogen, it was assumed that approximately 85% of the load would be in inorganic form, based on analysis of performance monitoring of the Durham Northside WWTP (Butcher et al. 1995). Existing `Domestic-type "Dischargers As of July 1, 1997 there were a total of 12 "domestic type" permitted discharges of treated wastewater within the Randleman Lake watershed, of which 9 were actively discharging to the watershed downstream of the Oak Hollow and High Point Lake watersheds (letter from W. C. Basinger, NC Division of Water Quality Winston-Salem to Andrea Spangler, Piedmont Triad Water Authority, November 19, 1997). These facilities discharge treated sewage, and thus constitute an additional source of nutrient loading. There are two "domestic type" permitted dischargers of treated wastewater above Oak Hollow Lake. Current status of these dischargers is shown in Table A-l. In addition to the domestic-type dischargers, there are 13 permitted small industrial dischargers in the watershed. Most of these permits are for stormwater and non-contact process water, and include 11 permits for stormwater flow from the tank farm on the East Fork of Deep River. The Piedmont Triad Regional Water Authority A-[-1 1 Randleman Lake Nutrient Reduction Strategy and Implementation Plan Draft (February 19>8) Table A-1. Domestic Type Dischargers in Randleman Lake Watershed Discharger NPDES Location Status Permit Disc/urges to the direct drainage of proposed Randleman Lake Hickory Run MHP NC- UT Bull Run Operating; permitted flow 0.035 0041505 Creek Sumner Elementary NC- UT Hickory Operating; permitted flow 0.009 MGD School 0037117 Creek Plaza MHP NC- UT Hickory permitted flow 0.003 MGD 0041483 Creek Crown MHP NC- UT Hickory Operating; permitted flow 0.05 MGD 0055255 Creek Southern Guilford NC- UT Hickory Operating; permitted flow 0.012 MGD High School 0038229 Creek Southern Elementary NC- UT Hickory Operating; permitted flow 0.0075 MGD School 0038091 Creek Penman Heights NC- Taylor Br. of Operating; permitted flow 0.025 MGD (Rayco Utilities) 0055191 Muddy Creek Hidden Forest MHP NC- UT Deep River Operating; permitted flow 0.10 MGD 0065358 Rimmer Mobile NC- Muddy Creek Permitted for 0.0204 MGD, but never Home Court 0069451 constructed. Melbille Heights NC- Muddy Creek Operating; permitted flow 0.0315 MGD (Rayco Utilities) 0050792 DisclTarges to Oak Hollow Lake watershed Slate Residence NCG- UT W Fork Operating; permitted flow 0.00045 MGD 550102 Deep River Sandy Ridge NC- UT W. Fork Operating; permitted flow 0.0175 MGD Correctional Center 0027758 Deep River Total Permitted Flow 0.029 MGD A-1-2 Piedmont Triad Regional Water Authority 1 f t t 1 1 1 1 1 r t Draft (February 1998) Appendix 1 other two permitted discharges are AMF Hatteras Yachts (NCG-500204), discharging to a tributary of Richland Creek with a permitted flow of 0.002 MGD; and LCP National Plastics (NC-0036366) discharging to a tributary of West Fork Deep River above Oak Hollow Lake. The Hatteras Yachts discharge will be discontinued as the plant is moving out of the basin. None of these industrial discharges contains a significant nutrient load. The total permitted flow from operating domestic-type dischargers appears to be 0.029 MGD While these sources contain nutrients, their combined load is insignificant compared to the current 10.5 MGD flow from High Point Eastside WWTP. These small discharges are of little importance in terms of the overall nutrient balance of Randleman Lake, but do have the potential to present localized problems. Piedmont Triad Regional Water Authority A-I-3 1 r i 1 a 1 1 1 t 1 i 1 1 Draft (February 1998) Appendix Il APPENDIX II. ESTIMATION OF FUTURE LAND USE CONDITIONS Developing a Nutrient Reduction Strategy requires a reasonable estimate of future changes in land use patterns within the watershed. Future land use cannot be predicted with certainty; however a reasonable estimate can be obtained by analysis ofgrowth-shaping factors. Future land use within any given area of the watershed will be largely determined by the interaction of four factors: (1) demand or development pressure; (2) water supply protection ordinances which limit the types of development permissible; (3) infrastructure, including availability of roads, water, and sewer; and (4) natural characteristics of soils and slopes. Future demand is one of the most difficult factors to evaluate. For this study we have based estimates of future land use demand on year 2025 trendline scenario developed for the Piedmont Triad Regional Transportation study. This study identifies projected living and working areas, and represents the best available consensus information on future land use demand. We assumed that the 2025 projected living and working areas represent areas of high demand, while areas not so identified are areas of low demand. For the high-demand areas it was assumed that the land would be developed to 90% of the capacity allowed by the applicable water supply protection ordinances and natural environmental constraints, with the "living" areas converting to residential development and the "working" areas converting to commercial, office, light industrial, or institutional uses. For the lower demand areas it was assumed that there would be an approximately 20% increase in the existing number of housing units, reflecting the general rate of population increase expected for the Piedmont-Triad area. The methods used to estimate future land use differed by county, according to the type and format of data which were available. For Guilford Co., detailed coverages of a variety of growth-shaping factors were obtained in a Geographic Information System (GIS). The Guilford Co. portions of the watershed contain most of the expected high growth areas and are most critical for the Nutrient Reduction Strategy, and a detailed geographically-based estimate of future land use was constructed using the GIS. For Randolph and Forsyth counties, only limited data (primarily zoning) were obtained in GIS format, and a simpler method of analysis was applied. For the high-growth portions of Guilford Co. the estimates of future land use involved the following steps: 1. Account for existing high-intensity land uses grand-fathered under water supply protection ordinances. 2. Account for publicly owned land and other preserved open space. 3. Determine relevant future jurisdiction, based on the annexation agreement established by High Point, Archdale and Jamestown extra-territorial jurisdictions, and planned sewer expansion by Greensboro. Piedmont Triad Regional Water Authority A-II-1 Randleman Lake Nulrient Reduction Strategy and Implementation Plan Draft (February 1998) r 4. Determine whether an area is now or will be sewered. Projections of future sewered areas within Guilford Co. are given by the Guilford Co. Atlas "Forecast 2015" and the water and sanitary systems improvement map for the High Point Southeast Economic Development Area (April, 1996). Jamestown's entire extra-territorial jurisdiction is also assumed to be sewered in the future. Existing and future sewered areas, along with the occurrence of poor soils for onsite wastewater disposal, are shown in Figure A-1. 5. For sewered high-growth areas, assume 90% development by 2025, in either residential or commercial land uses, subject to water supply protection ordinances of the relevant jurisdiction. For residential areas in the high-growth area, new lots are assumed to be created in the minimum specified zoning size class allowed under the ordinances. Actual lot yield per acre is based on the assumption used by Guilford Co. Planning that 25% of a developed area is typically required for roads, other utilities, high slopes, and other characteristics of a site which increase effective lot size. Thus development under 1 acre zoning is assumed to achieve an effective lot size of 1 dwelling unit per 1.25 acres. 6. For unsewered areas, 90% development is also assumed for high growth areas. However, effective lot size and potential yield of dwelling units is potentially limited by soil qualities. For unsewered areas with soils with poor qualities for onsite wastewater ,' disposal it is assumed that the minimum effective lot size is 5 acres per dwelling unit, even if zoning allows denser development. For areas in Guilford Co. without substantial development pressure, the potential future land use is assumed to represent a mix of 60% forest, 10% crop, 10% pasture, and 20% residential use. The residential land uses are distributed across a range of lot sizes, with half in the minimum allowed lot size. The transfer matrix showing the calculation of potential land use distribution in response to growth shaping factors is shown in Table A-2. Once potential land use is estimated it is combined with existing land use information to create an estimate of future land use. This procedure allows existing higher-density land uses, as well as commercial and institutional land uses in residential areas, to be retained for the future land use scenario. In the absence of water supply protection ordinances, it is assumed that all areas with high development pressure would be sewered and 90% developed. High growth residential areas are then assumed to achieve a mix of 70% 0.25-0.5 acre single family lots and 30% townhouse/apartment development. High growth commercial areas are assumed to achieve a mix of 50% commercial/office, 10% open space, 20% heavy industry, and 10% institutional land use. Outside of Guilford Co., GIS coverages were available for zoning and 2025 "living" and "working" areas; however, other growth-shaping factors were not available in GIS, requiring a different approach. For the Forsyth Co. portion of Oak Hollow watershed, the CDM (1989) analysis under Scenario lA was used. For Randolph and Forsyth counties, future land use is based primarily on zoning and an assumption that approximately 50% of the soils have poor A-II-2 Piedmont Triad Regional Water Authority '~ Draft (February 1998) Appendix II characteristics for onsite wastewater disposal (the same ratio observed in southwestern Guilford Co.) For Randolph Co. it is assumed that sewer extension under water supply ordinances will be confined to the extra-territorial jurisdiction limits of Archdale, Randleman, and Kernersville. Finally, in all low-growth areas of Randolph and Forsyth counties it is assumed that future land uses represent a 20% increase in number of housing units, with some limited outlying commercial development to support the increased population. The housing unit baseline is drawn from 1990 US Census data. New lots created in these areas are distributed across a variety of lot sizes. Future land use is then estimated based on existing land use, modified by transferring land area from rural (forest, agriculture) land uses to residential land uses. 1 s 1 1 1 1 Piedmont Triad Regional Water Authority A-II-3 Randleman Lake Nutrient Reduction Strate~,ry and Implementation Plan Draft (February 1998) Legend /~/ County Boundaries ~~'-1 Randleman Lake Watershed Poor Development Soils F~dsting Severed Areas iii Proposed Sewer Areas 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 Niles Figure A-1. Severed Areas and Soils with Poor Suitability for Onsite Wastewater Disposal in the Guilford County Portion of the Randleman Lake Watershed 1 A 1 A 1 A-II-4 Piedmont Triad Regional Water Authority ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ i i~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ a Table A-2. Transfer Matrix for Calculating Potential Future Guilford Co. Land Use Based On 202 Projections Growth Shaping Factors Resulting Land Use Distribution Jurisdiction Future Sewered Growth Factor Soil WS Tier Forest Rural Res >5 ac Large Lot Res 2-5 ac Low Dens Res 1-2 ac Low-Med Dens Res .5-1 ac Med Dens Res .25-.5 ac Townhouse /A t Comm/ Office Open S ace Heavy Indus Insti- tutional Cro Pasture With WS Ordinances (any) (any) (any) (any) 1 1.00 Y R (any) 2 0.10 0.90 Y R (any) 3 0.10 0.90 Y R (any) 4 0.10 0.90 Y R (any) Prot 0.10 0.90 ~, N R poor 2 0.10 0.90 N R poor 3 0.10 0.90 f6 0 N R poor 4 0.10 0.90 ~ N R poor Prot 0.10 0.90 o N R good 2 0.10 0.90 ~ N R good 3 0.10 0.90 a° N R good 4 0.10 0.90 m N R good Prot 0.10 0.90 = Y C (any) 2 0.32 0.03 0.65 ~ Y C (any) 3 0.24 0.27 0.49 Y C (any) 4 0.22 0.33 0.44 j Y C (any) Prot 0.24 0.27 0.49 o N C (any) 2 0.32 0.03 0.65 N C (any) 3 0.32 0.04 0.64 ~ N C (any) 4 029 0.13 0.58 N C (any) Prot 0.24 0.27 0.49 Y N (any) 2 0.60 0.20 0.10 0.10 Y N (any) 3 0.60 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 Y N (any) 4 0.60 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 Y N (any) Prot 0.60 0.05 0.05 0.10 0.10 0.10 N N poor (all) 0.60 0.20 0.10 0.10 N N good 2 0.60 0.20 0.10 0.10 N N good 3 0.60 0.20 0.10 0.10 N N good 4 0.60 0.05 0.05 0.10 0.10 0.10 N N good Prot 0.60 0.05 0.05 0.10 0.10 0.10 Table A-2. Transfer Matrix for Calculating Potential Future Guilford Co. Land Use Based On 2025 Projections Growth Shaping Factors Resulting Land Use Distribution Jurisdiction Future Sewered Growth Factor Soil WS Tier Forest Rural Res >5 ac Large Lot Res 2-5 ac Low Dens Res 1-2 ac Low-Med Dens Res .5-1 ac Med Dens Res 25-.5 ac Townhouse /A t Comm/ Office Open S ace Heavy Indus Insti- tutional Cro Pasture Y R (any) Prot 0.10 0.90 N R poor Prot 0.10 0.90 o N R good Prot 0.10 0.90 0 w Y C (any) Prot 0.24 0.27 0.49 m N C (any) Prot 0.24 0.27 0.49 c7 Y N (any) Prot 0.60 0.05 0.05 0.10 0.10 0.10 N N poor Prot 0.60 0.05 0.05 0.10 0.10 0.10 N N good Prot 0.60 0.05 0.05 0.10 0.10 0.10 Y R (any) 2 0.10 0.90 Y R (any) 3 0.10 0.90 Y R (any) 4 0.10 0.90 Y R (any) Prot 0.10 0.90 N R poor 2 0.10 0.90 m N R poor 3 0.10 0.90 ~ N R poor 4 0.10 0.90 L `` ~ N R poor Prot 0.10 0.90 a N R good 2 0.10 0.90 ~, N R good 3 0.10 0.90 s ~ N R good 4 0.10 0.90 N R good Prot 0.10 0.90 U ~ Y C (any) 2 1.00 3 Y C (any) 3 0.24 0.27 0.49 -° 0 Y C (any) 4 0.24 027 0.49 = Y C (any) Prot 020 0.40 0.40 Y ~ N C (any) 2 1.00 0.00 0.00 N C (any) 3 0.24 0.27 0.49 a° N C (any) 4 0.24 0.27 0.49 a, N C (any) Prot 0.20 0.40 0.40 = Y N (any) 2 0.60 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 Y N (any) 3 0.60 0.05 0.05 0.10 0.10 0.10 Y N (any) 4 0.60 0.05 0.05 0.10 0.10 0.10 Y N (any) Prot 0.60 0.05 0.05 0.10 0.10 0.10 N N poor (any) 0.60 0.20 0.10 0.10 N N ood an 0.60 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 ~r ~ +~ ar ~ ~~- ~ ~ r s ~ l>r s r ~ ~^r ~ r >• ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 11~ ~ ~~ ~ Table A-2. Transfer Matrix for Calculating Potential Future Guilford Co. Land Use Based On 202 Projections Growth Shaping Factors Resulting Land Use Distribution Jurisdiction Future Sewered Growth Factor Soil WS Tier Forest Rural Res >5 ac Large Lot Res 2-5 ac Low Dens Res 1-2 ac Low-Med Dens Res .5-1 ac Med Dens Res .25-.5 ac Townhouse /A t Comm/ Office Open S ace Heavy Indus Insti- tutional Cro Pasture Y R (any) 2 0.10 0.90 Y R (any) 3 0.10 0.90 Y R (any) 4 0.10 0.90 Y R (any) Prot 0.10 0.90 N R poor 2 0.10 0.90 N R poor 3 0.10 0.90 N R poor 4 0.10 0.90 N R poor Prot 0.10 0.90 N R good 2 0.10 0.90 N R good 3 0.10 0.90 N R good 4 0.10 0.90 3 N R good Prot 0.10 0.90 ° m Y C (any) 2 1.00 ~ Y C (any) 3 0.24 0.27 0.49 ~ Y C (any) 4 0.24 027 0.49 Y C (any) Prot 0.24 0.27 0.49 N C (any) 2 1.00 N C (any) 3 0.24 0.27 0.49 N C (any) 4 0.24 0.27 0.49 N C (any) Prot 024 0.27 0.49 Y N (any) 2 0.60 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 Y N (any) 3 0.60 0.05 0.05 0.10 0.10 0.10 Y N (any) 4 0.60 0.05 0.05 0.10 0.10 0.10 Y N (any) Prot 0.60 0.05 0.05 0.10 0.10 0.10 N N poor (any) 0.60 0.20 0.10 0.10 N N good (any) 0.60 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 Y R (any) Prot 0.10 0.90 a~ N R good Prot 0.10 0.90 N R poor Prot 0.24 0.27 0.49 Y C (any) Prot 0.24 027 C.49 Q N C good Prot 0.24 0.27 0.49 N C poor Prot 0.24 0.27 0.49 Table A-2. Transfer Matrix for Calculating Potential Future Guilford Co. Land Use Based On 2025 Projections Growth Shaping Factors Resulting Land Use Distribution Rural Large Lot Low Dens Low-Med Med Dens Future Growth S Res Res Res Dens Res Res Townhouse Comm/ Open Heavy Insti- Jurisdiction Sewered Factor Soil Tier Forest >5 ac 2-5 ac 1-2 ac .5-1 ac .25-.5 ac /A t Office S ace Indus tutional Cro Pasture WITHOUT WS Ordinances {assume {all} Y} R {all} NA 0.10 0.63 0.27 {assume {all} Y} C {all} NA 0.10 0.50 0.10 0.20 0.10 {assume {all} N} N poor NA 0.60 0.20 0.10 0.10 {assume {all} N} N good NA 0.60 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10