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HomeMy WebLinkAboutNC0004774_Buck CAP Part I_Appx C_Final_20151120This page intentionally left blank ELECTRIC POWER RESEARCH INSTITUTE&1emorandum Octobere9,e2015e TO:cEdeSullivancandeTylereDubosee e FROM:d3rucecHensele e SUBJECT:e BUCKdVIODEUREVIEWe Summary EPRIdiase; evieweddhed3uckanodelcreportcandcfl lesq)rovidedd)yDukecEnergy,diDRe Engineering,dnc.,canddhedJniversitywfCNortheCarolinaeCharlotte. eThecreviewavascperformede byeTamescRumbaugh�EnvironmentalcSimulations,dnc.),exithdnputd)yeChunmiaoeZhengcande myself d3asedwndhiscreview,dtaiswuroopiniondhat,asubjectdodheacaveatsd)elow,dhisanodele iseset-upcandeneetsdtseflowe3nddransporta;alibrationwbjectivesesufficientlyttoeneetatsc finale obj ectivewfapredictingwffectswfocorrectiveaactionaalternative swnegroundwateroquality. eThee caveatscassociatedawithdhisaDpinioneare: e • Constantdieadsazseddocrepresentesomecboundariesanayq)rovideeancanmitigatedesourcee ofowatereforasimulationwfcanyocorrectiveaactionaalternativesdhatcpotentiallyainvolvee pumpingeieardhosed:)oundaries. odfxorrectivecactionsdnvolveepumping,xonsidercane alternativedodheoconstantcheadsebelowdayere5 arepresentingdheeYadkineRiver. e • Boroncandearsenicawerecaddeddoetheanodel&iaeconstantwoncentrationcboundaries.e Usew fdhisd)oundarywonditionenayanakeeitodifficultdordhec nodeldocsimulatee cappingca s aacremedialcstrategy. e Specific Comments Model Report, Setup, and Calibration a) Is the objective/purpose oj'modeling clearly defined? Yes.eTheo)bj ectivecandcpurposea)fdhecmodelingeisoclearlyadefinedaincSectionel .2aase consistingoDfdhreeemaineactivities: o�developmentoufcaocalibratedcsteady-stateeflowanodelwfe currentoconditions,odevelopmentdofcaahistoricaldransientanodeleDfw,onstituentdransporte calibrateddowurrentoconditions, candq)redictiveesimulationsaDfadifferentacorrectiveeactione options.e b) Is the site description adequate? Yes.oSectionel .1 e)fdheareportq)rovidescaodescriptiona)fdheasitedhateiscadequateefore evaluatingetheenodelaforcbothdloweanddransportq)urpo ses. e c) Is the conceptual model well described with appropriate assumptions? Yes.xThe(vonceptualc nodelesectionaeontains(subsectionsodiscussingdhecaquiferasysteme framework,dheegroundwaterdlowcsystem, diydrologicd)oundaries,diydraulicd:)oundaries,e sourcescandasinks,evatercbudget,anodeledeconstituentswfdnterest,candoconstituentdransport. w TheeCSAareportdsareferencedanodescribingeaquiferq)roperties. c-,Theernethodaxseddoo-,stimatee BuckcModel&eviewe October(9,e2015e Pagee2w rechargeeisodiscussedealongavithereferences. wTheerationaled)ehinddhewhoicewfu�onstituentse toebeemodeleddsadiscussed.e d) Is the numerical model properly set up (steady state or transient; initial condition; boundary conditions; parameterization; etc)? i) Appropriateness of the simulatore Thecaseo)fcN40DFLOW-NWTaandcT\4T3DMSdoesimulateegroundwatereflowcandacontaminante transport,erespectively,eared)otheappropriateefordheemodelingwbj ectiveseandcrepresenteane industryestandardeincehoiceaDfcs emulators. e ii) Discretization: temporal and spatial (x y notably z) Thecspatialadiscretizationefordhisanodelascaeconstante20cft, avhicheisemoredhancadequatedoe delineateadifferencesdnesimulatedcheadseandwoncentrationseforeallcreasonable(valibrationcande predictivecpurposes. e Fordransportesimulations,dhecCouranteNumberc ndctheeGridcPecletcNumberacancbewseddoe determineavhetherodiscretizationascnumericallyeappropriatecforcaegivenanodel.cdndhisanodel,e transportdimeestepsearec utomaticallywalculatedd)ydheesimulatorebasedauneacspecifiede CouranteNumber(constrainto)fel.oeThiso-,nsuresdhatdemporalodiscretizationasc ppropriateefore theesp atialediscretizationmfdheemodel. e TheeGridePecletcNumber4Pe_gride=ell/a)ovancbecaseddoxvaluateavhethermumericale dispersionodominatesoconstituentdransportd)asedoonespatialodiscretizationeandcphysicale dispersion. oiGridePecletenumberscpreferablydessdhane2candeaoanoredhanel Oeareegenerallye recommendeddoeminimizemumericalodispersion. e Thedateralodiscretizationa Axo=a ye=e20cft)cfordheo,-ntireanodelearea,xoupledexithdhee longitudinaladispersivitya)fc80cfeete ilecresultsdneaeGridd'ecletMumberaofCO.25dndheaentiree modelearea. ceThedransversedateralodispersivitywfc8cfteresultseincacGridePecletalumberoDfe2.5,e whicheisevellewithinetheodesirederange. e Thewerticalodiscretizationeiswariablednocontrastdodhediorizontalodiscretization. eB ecauseca e considerableeportionwfdhewarlydransporteindheemodeleisvertical, especialaconsiderationmfe thisadiscretizationdsavarranted.00Grid(cellsd)eneathdheeashepondeindicateocelldhicknesseso Az)e indayerse5 dhroughe7crangeefromeaboutel 2doe3 5 eft. wThedransverseeierticalodispersivity�av)dse 8.Oeftandheanodel.xThiso:esultsaneacgridcPeclet(numbero Pe_gride (Az/av)d:)etweeneaboutel.5e ande4.4,ealsoe,vithindheedesirederangewfePecletaiumbers. eel.,ayercgehaseadhicknessewhiche variesefromaboutcO.2dtdoe29eftdndhecsourcecarea. orThisxquatesdoeao: angeoDfwerticalegride PecletcnumbersaDfcO.025 doe3.6. oeLayersc9candel Odiavecawonstantdhicknesswfc4Oeftewitheae Pecletaiumberaofc5efor(yerticalodispersivity. xThuseallaDfdhecPecletaiumbersefordongitudinal,e transverse,c ndwerticaledispersivityeareewithindheedesiredcrange.e 0 iii) Hydrologic framework — hydraulic properties BuckcModel&eviewe October(9,e2015e Pagee3 ee Hydraulicq)ropertiesevereegroupedd)yanaterialdype�ash,edike,esaprolite,ealluvium,etransitione zone,candd)edrock)oxvhichcareebasedoancslugetestscanddhediydrostratigraphyoofdheesitee de scrib eddndheeC SAereport. eeThiscapproachdscreasonable. w iv) Boundary conditions Theemodeld:)oundaryeconditionsxonsistoafxonstantdleadseforetheeYadkineRivereandodrainsefore thecannamedF-tributarieseanddowcareas. oeRechargeascapplieddne2¢onescatoratescDfe6anchescpere yearefordheeashcbasinseande5 dnchescpereyearefordhecrestoofdheernodel. olo-flowd)oundariese representcsurfaceodivides,exhichc recassumeddocalso(coincidesvithegroundwaterodivides.x Theseeareeallereasonable.e Theetransportemodeleusedoconstantoconcentrationeboundariesetodnputemass/concentratione fromdheeashcbasins. eThesed)oundariesewereq)laceddndayersel ,e2cande3. cRechargeo,vasenote usedetocaddoconcentrationdodheemodel. eThiseselectionaDfdransporternodeleboundarye conditionsdlasetwo(potentialeramifications: e • IfdhereeiseaegridepositionovithindheesimulatedesourceeareaexvhereeDneeoremoreocellse areedrydneallcsourcedayers,dhenerechargeefromeinfiltrationethroughdheeashcbasineine theseeareasexwillwnteretheemodelexithcaxoncentrationoofezero,ewhichewouldmoteagreee withdheoconceptualemodeleforethisefacility. ofortunatelydhisodoesmotoaccureindhee modelecalibration.e • Theq)lacementoDferonstantxoncentration(cellsdbeneatheihecashq)ondemaydnhibitcthee model'scabilityetoesimulateccapping,ebecausedateraleflowethroughetheseoconstante concentrationeeellsavillocontinueetoeaddemass/concentrationdodheanodeleevene thoughdeachingeandeinfiltrationemayebeegreatlyereducedebyethe(cap. cSimulationoafe other(correctivecactions,00therdhanwxcavation,exwillcalsod)ycaffectedcbecausedhee concentrationeaddeddodheemodelexillmotebecrepresentativeoofdheocappedefacility. e v) Initial conditions in transient simulations Theeflowemodeldscrundnesteadyestate,e,vherednitialoconditionsearemotcrelevanteapartefrome numericaloconvergence,exvhichexwaseachieved. wThedransientetransportemodeleassumeseaezeroe concentrationeinitially,ewithetheeashepondsmctingeascaoconstantoconcentrationesourcese thereafter. eTheseanitialxonditionscareereasonable. w vi) Convergence criteria and mass balance errors ThedieaddoleranceandheeNWTq)ackagesoafel e-3asanoreethancadequateeinoensuringcheade precisioncforethe(purposeseofdheemodel. wTheeflowemassebalanceediscrepancydndhee MODFLOWeListingcfilewfcO.Oq)ercentasemoredhaneadequatedna-,nsuringaninimaleflowanasse balancewrrors. wTheecumulativecconcentrationemass(balanceodiscrepancyefrom&lT3DMS dsw lessethancO.4epercentcforoarseniceandcO.2epereenteford)oron. ceTheseanasscbalancewrrorscaree moredhaneadequatedne.nsuringaninimaloconstituentanasscbalanceoerrors. e e) Is the calibration done properly and adequately? BuckcModel&eviewe October(9,e2015e Pagee4w e Foreflowxalibrationdodieads,dhecN4eanekbsolute&rroraDverdhee^angedneobservedavaluesdse 7.1 cpercent,evhicheis�belowdheandustrycstandarda)fel0q)ereent. a:ThecscaledcRMSwrroreande StandardDeviationeareeabouteg.7q)ercent,calsod)elowdheestandardoDfel Oepercent. adneaddition, e thereeisetoesignificantespatialebiaseindheodistributionoo feresiduals. ae Thedransport(ralibrationdsereasonableegivendheeuncertaintydnvolvedewithdhisdypeoofe modeling. adnegeneral,ewellsewithehighoconcentrationscshowdiighesimulatedoconcentrationsefore boroneandearsenic. oeLikewise,ewellseshowingdowdevels�orebelowadetection)calsowxhibitdowe predictedeconcentrationseindheemodel.o-,Theernostenotablea-,xceptioneiseatewellscAB-2Sa layere 6)candeAB-2SLa layere7)avheredheemeasuredearsenicdsdiighestdndayero6.xTheemodeldiase thesecreversed,(butdheehighestaconcentrationseareacomparableebetweendheeftelde measurementscanddhe cmodelesimulated(values. e Discretization of calibration parameters Hydraulicq)ropertiese vereegroupedcbyanaterialdype�ash,adike,esaprolite,calluvium,etransitione zone,candebedrock). aThisascaereasonablecapproach. oRechargeeisegroupedcbyanfiltratione withindhecashebasinseandanutsidedheabasins.(eThisasealsoeaereasonableeapproach. e i) Appropriateness of target as a metric of simulation objectives (e.g., calibrating primarily to heads when transport is the primary purpose) Thecflowanodelocalibrationdoeobserveddteadsaseadequate.oSeveral(plotsealsoeshowesimulatede constituentaeoncentrationsdndhewontextanf(severaleobservedaconcentrations. oDetaileddablese ofcDbservedcandesimulatedevoncentrationscarecalsocprovideddoodocumentdhedransporte calibration.e Is the sensitivity analysis conducted and if so, correctly? i) Sensitivity Analysis approach (look for parameters which maybe insensitive to flow but not to transport) Aeflowemodelesensitivityeanalysisawaseconductedevherebyerechargeerates,epumpingerates,cande hydraulicwonductivitieso,vereeperturbedeapmndodownebye20%. odtdsestateddhatavaterdevelse areenostesensitivedodtorizontaldtydraulicoconductivitywfdheeshalloweaquifer,erechargee outsidedhecashebasins, canddiydraulic wonductivity(ofdhedransition¢one. ceTheeresultsearee depicteddneTablee4. aThi sdscaereasonableanethodeforeillustratingeflowemodelesensitivity. ac Thedransportenodelesensitivityeanalysisdncludeddestingcsorptiono arsenicoonly)candq)orosity. PorosityevaluesaofcO.2eandeO.3 overedestedealongavith&deforearsenicaDfc90eml/grameande45 e ml/gram. aThisdseaereasonableemethodefordllustratingdransportenodelesensitivity.e Model Files: a) Can the model be run with the input files provided by the developer? Yes. ce b) Do the model results match those presented in the report? i) Independent check of input data vs. conceptual model/report Modeldnputseareeconsistentavithavhateisadescribedeinethecreport. e BuckcModel&eviewe October(9,e2015e Pagec5w ii) Check of water balance vs. conceptual model Thexonceptualanodeledoesalotepresenteaecomprehensiveaiumericaloxaterdbalance. e,Watere entersctheanodeleasarechargedromcprecipitationeanddhearechargearatesmoteddndhea;onceptuale modelcareeconsistentavithdhoseandheanodel.xTheeconstantdleadscalongctheeYadkineRivercaree primarilycanwxitd7oundaryavhichdseconsistentavithdheeconceptualoxaterdbalance.oDrainse repre sentingdributarycstreamscandevetlandsaremovedhearemainingarechargedevater. a e iii) Independent check of model results vs. those reported Independentlyegeneratedanodelaresultscarexonsistentevithevhatasod escribedanctheareport. e Draft Groundwater Flow and Transport Model Buck Steam Station Rowan County, NC Prepared for: HDR Engineering, Inc. Hydropower Services 440 S. Church St, Suite 1000 Charlotte, NC 28202 Investigators: William G. Langley, Ph.D., P.E. Dongwook Kim, Ph.D. UNC Charlotte / Lee College of Engineering Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering EPIC Building 3252 9201 University City Blvd. Charlotte, NC 28223 November 17, 2015 TABLE OF CONTENTS 1 Introduction............................................................................................................................... 1.1 General Setting and Background................................................................................... 1.2 Study Objectives............................................................................................................ 2 Conceptual Model.................................................................................................................... 2.1 Geology and Hydrogeology (HDR 2015)....................................................................... 2.2 Hydrostratigraphic Layer Development (HDR 2015)..................................................... 2.3 Ash Basins and Ash Storage Area (HDR 2015)............................................................ 2.4 Groundwater Flow System............................................................................................. 2.5 Hydrologic Boundaries................................................................................................... 2.6 Hydraulic Boundaries..................................................................................................... 2.7 Sources and Sinks......................................................................................................... 2.8 Water Budget................................................................................................................. 2.9 Modeled Constituents of Interest (COI).......................................................................... 2.10 Constituent Transport..................................................................................................... 3 Computer Model....................................................................................................................... 3.1 Model Selection.............................................................................................................. 3.2 Model Description........................................................................................................... 4 Groundwater Flow and Transport Model Construction............................................................ 4.1 Model Hydrostratigraphy................................................................................................ 4.2 GMS MODFLOW Version 10......................................................................................... 4.3 Model Domain and Grid................................................................................................. 4.4 Hydraulic Parameters..................................................................................................... 4.5 Flow Model Boundary Conditions.................................................................................. 4.6 Flow Model Sources and Sinks...................................................................................... 4.7 Flow Model Calibration Targets..................................................................................... 4.8 Transport Model Parameters......................................................................................... 4.9 Transport Model Boundary Conditions........................................................................... 4.10 Transport Model Sources and Sinks.............................................................................. 4.11 Transport Model Calibration Targets.............................................................................. 5 Model Calibration to Current Conditions.................................................................................. 5.1 Flow Model Residual Analysis....................................................................................... 5.2 Flow Model Sensitivity Analysis..................................................................................... 5.3 Transport Model Calibration and Sensitivity................................................................... 6 Predictive Simulations of Closure Scenarios........................................................................... 6.1 Existing Conditions Scenario......................................................................................... 6.2 Ash Basin Cap -in -Place Scenario.................................................................................. 6.3 Excavation Scenario....................................................................................................... 7 Summary and Conclusions...................................................................................................... 7.1 Model Assumptions and Limitations............................................................................... 1 1 2 2 2 2 4 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 .8 .8 .9 10 11 11 12 12 12 13 13 13 13 13 14 14 15 15 18 21 24 24 Appendix C 7.2 Model Predictions....................................................................................................................25 REFERENCES.................................................................................................................................. 26 Appendix C TABLES Table 1. Description of MODFLOW and MT3DMS Input Packages Utilized Table 2. Hydraulic Conductivity in Model Table 3. Observed vs. Predicted Hydraulic Head (ft msl) Table 4. Effective Porosity in Model Table 5. Transport Model Calibration Results Table 6. Predicted Advective Travel Time Results Table 7. Arsenic Transport Parameter Sensitivity Analysis Table 8. Boron Transport Parameter Sensitivity Analysis Appendix C FIGURES Figure 1. Conceptual Groundwater Flow Model/Model Domain Figure 2. Model Domain North -South Cross Section (A -A') Through Secondary Ash Basin Figure 3. Model Domain East-West Cross Section (B-B') Through Primary and Secondary Ash Basins Figure 4. Numerical Model Boundary Conditions Figure 5. Model Recharge Areas and Contaminant Source Zones (Constant Concentration Cells) Figure 6. Observation Wells in Shallow Groundwater Zone Figure 7. Observation Wells in Deep Groundwater Zone Figure 8. Observation Wells in Bedrock Groundwater Zone Figure 9. Hydraulic Conductivity Zonation in S/M1/M2 Layers (Model Layers 5-7) Figure 10. Modeled Hydraulic Head (feet) vs. Observed Hydraulic Head (feet) Figure 11. Hydraulic Head (feet) in M2 Saprolite Layer (Model Layer 7) Figure 12. Hydraulic Head (feet) in North -South Cross Section (C-C') through Primary and Secondary Ash Basins Figure 13. Hydraulic Head (feet) in East-West Cross Section (C-C') through Primary and Secondary Ash Basins Figure 14 Particle Tracking Results (see Table. 6 for Advective Travel Times) Figure 15. Predicted Antimony (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-3S for Model Scenarios 1-3 Figure 16. Predicted Antimony (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-4S for Model Scenarios 1-3 Figure 17. Predicted Antimony (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-5S for Model Scenarios 1-3 Figure 18. Predicted Antimony (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-12S for Model Scenarios 1-3 Figure 19. Predicted Antimony (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-4D for Model Scenarios 1-3 Figure 20. Predicted Antimony (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-9D for Model Scenarios 1-3 Figure 21. Predicted Antimony (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-22D for Model Scenarios 1-3 Figure 22. Predicted Antimony (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-3BRU for Model Scenarios 1-3 Figure 23. Predicted Antimony (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-5BRU for Model Scenarios 1-3 Figure 24. Predicted Antimony (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-12BRU for Model Scenarios 1-3 Figure 25. Predicted Boron (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-3S for Model Scenarios 1-3 Figure 26. Predicted Boron (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-5S for Model Scenarios 1-3 Figure 27. Predicted Boron (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-9D for Model Scenarios 1-3 Figure 28. Predicted Boron (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-22D for Model Scenarios 1-3 Figure 29. Predicted Boron (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-3BRU for Model Scenarios 1-3 Figure 30. Predicted Boron (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-513RU for Model Scenarios 1-3 Figure 31. Predicted Boron (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-9BR for Model Scenarios 1-3 Appendix C iv Figure 32. Predicted Chromium (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-3S for Model Scenarios 1-3 Figure 33. Predicted Chromium (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-5S for Model Scenarios 1-3 Figure 34. Predicted Chromium (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-12S for Model Scenarios 1-3 Figure 35. Predicted Chromium (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-41D for Model Scenarios 1-3 Figure 36. Predicted Chromium (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-3BRU for Model Scenarios 1-3 Figure 37. Predicted Chromium (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-5BRU for Model Scenarios 1-3 Figure 38. Predicted Chromium (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-12BRU for Model Scenarios 1-3 Figure 39. Predicted Cobalt (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-3S for Model Scenarios 1-3 Figure 40. Predicted Cobalt (fag/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-4S for Model Scenarios 1-3 Figure 41. Predicted Cobalt (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-5S for Model Scenarios 1-3 Figure 42. Predicted Cobalt (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-9S for Model Scenarios 1-3 Figure 43. Predicted Cobalt (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-12S for Model Scenarios 1-3 Figure 44. Predicted Cobalt (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-41D for Model Scenarios 1-3 Figure 45. Predicted Cobalt (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-91D for Model Scenarios 1-3 Figure 46. Predicted Cobalt (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-22D for Model Scenarios 1-3 Figure 47. Predicted Cobalt (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-3BRU for Model Scenarios 1-3 Figure 48. Predicted Cobalt (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-5BRU for Model Scenarios 1-3 Figure 49. Predicted Cobalt (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-12BRU for Model Scenarios 1-3 Figure 50. Predicted Hexavalent Chromium (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-3S for Model Scenarios 1-3 Figure 51. Predicted Hexavalent Chromium (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-4S for Model Scenarios 1-3 Figure 52. Predicted Hexavalent Chromium (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-5S for Model Scenarios 1-3 Figure 53. Predicted Hexavalent Chromium (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-41D for Model Scenarios 1-3 Figure 54. Predicted Hexavalent Chromium (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-91D for Model Scenarios 1-3 Figure 55. Predicted Hexavalent Chromium (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-22D for Model Scenarios 1-3 Figure 56. Predicted Hexavalent Chromium (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-3BRU for Model Scenarios 1-3 Figure 57. Predicted Hexavalent Chromium (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-5BRU for Model Scenarios 1-3 Figure 58. Predicted Sulfate (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-41D for Model Scenarios 1-3 Figure 59. Predicted Sulfate (fag/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-91D for Model Scenarios 1-3 Figure 60. Predicted Sulfate (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-5BRU for Model Scenarios 1-3 Appendix C v Figure 61. Predicted Sulfate (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-9BR for Model Scenarios 1-3 Figure 62. Predicted Vanadium (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-3S for Model Scenarios 1-3 Figure 63. Predicted Vanadium (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-4S for Model Scenarios 1-3 Figure 64. Predicted Vanadium (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-5S for Model Scenarios 1-3 Figure 65. Predicted Vanadium (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-9S for Model Scenarios 1-3 Figure 66. Predicted Vanadium (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-12S for Model Scenarios 1-3 Figure 67. Predicted Vanadium (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-4D for Model Scenarios 1-3 Figure 68. Predicted Vanadium (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-9D for Model Scenarios 1-3 Figure 69. Predicted Vanadium (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-22D for Model Scenarios 1-3 Figure 70. Predicted Vanadium (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-3BRU for Model Scenarios 1-3 Figure 71. Predicted Vanadium (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-5BRU for Model Scenarios 1-3 Figure 72. Predicted Vanadium (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-9BR for Model Scenarios 1-3 Figure 73. Predicted Vanadium (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-12BRU for Model Scenarios 1-3 Figure 74. Initial (2015) Antimony Concentrations (pg/L) in the Shallow Groundwater Zone Figure 75. Initial (2015) Antimony Concentrations (pg/L) in the Deep Groundwater Zone Figure 76. Initial (2015) Antimony Concentrations (pg/L) in the Bedrock Groundwater Zone Figure 77. "Existing" Scenario 1 - 2115 Predicted Antimony (pg/L) in the Shallow Groundwater Zone Figure 78. "Existing" Scenario 1 - 2115 Predicted Antimony (pg/L) in the Deep Groundwater Zone Figure 79. "Existing" Scenario 1 - 2115 Predicted Antimony (pg/L) in the Bedrock Groundwater Zone Figure 80. "Cap -In -Place" Scenario 2 - 2115 Predicted Antimony (pg/L) in the Shallow Groundwater Zone Figure 81. "Cap -In -Place" Scenario 2 - 2115 Predicted Antimony (pg/L) in the Deep Groundwater Zone Figure 82. "Cap -In -Place" Scenario 2 - 2115 Predicted Antimony (pg/L) in the Bedrock Groundwater Zone Figure 83. "Excavate" Scenario 3 - 2115 Predicted Antimony (pg/L) in the Shallow Groundwater Zone Figure 84. "Excavate" Scenario 3 - 2115 Predicted Antimony (pg/L) in the Deep Groundwater Zone Figure 85. "Excavate" Scenario 3 - 2115 Predicted Antimony (pg/L) in the Bedrock Groundwater Zone Figure 86. Initial (2015) Boron Concentrations (pg/L) in the Shallow Groundwater Zone Figure 87. Initial (2015) Boron Concentrations (pg/L) in the Deep Groundwater Zone Figure 88. Initial (2015) Boron Concentrations (pg/L) in the Bedrock Groundwater Zone Appendix C vi Figure 89. "Existing" Scenario 1 - 2115 Predicted Boron (pg/L) in the Shallow Groundwater Zone Figure 90. "Existing" Scenario 1 - 2115 Predicted Boron (pg/L) in the Deep Groundwater Zone Figure 91. "Existing" Scenario 1 - 2115 Predicted Boron (pg/L) in the Bedrock Groundwater Zone Figure 92. "Cap -In -Place" Scenario 2 - 2115 Predicted Boron (pg/L) in the Shallow Groundwater Zone Figure 93. "Cap -In -Place" Scenario 2 - 2115 Predicted Boron (pg/L) in the Deep Groundwater Zone Figure 94. "Cap -In -Place" Scenario 2 - 2115 Predicted Boron (pg/L) in the Bedrock Groundwater Zone Figure 95. "Excavate" Scenario 3 - 2115 Predicted Boron (pg/L) in the Shallow Groundwater Zone Figure 96. "Excavate" Scenario 3 - 2115 Predicted Boron (pg/L) in the Deep Groundwater Zone Figure 97. "Excavate" Scenario 3 - 2115 Predicted Boron (pg/L) in the Bedrock Groundwater Zone Figure 98. Initial (2015) Chromium Concentrations (pg/L) in the Shallow Groundwater Zone Figure 99. Initial (2015) Chromium Concentrations (pg/L) in the Deep Groundwater Zone Figure 100. Initial (2015) Chromium Concentrations (pg/L) in the Bedrock Groundwater Zone Figure 101. "Existing" Scenario 1 - 2115 Predicted Chromium (pg/L) in the Shallow Groundwater Zone Figure 102. "Existing" Scenario 1 - 2115 Predicted Chromium (pg/L) in the Deep Groundwater Zone Figure 103. "Existing" Scenario 1 - 2115 Predicted Chromium (pg/L) in the Bedrock Groundwater Zone Figure 104. "Cap -In -Place" Scenario 2 - 2115 Predicted Chromium (pg/L) in the Shallow Groundwater Zone Figure 105. "Cap -In -Place" Scenario 2 - 2115 Predicted Chromium (pg/L) in the Deep Groundwater Zone Figure 106. "Cap -In -Place" Scenario 2 - 2115 Predicted Chromium (pg/L) in the Bedrock Groundwater Zone Figure 107. "Excavate" Scenario 3 - 2115 Predicted Chromium (pg/L) in the Shallow Groundwater Zone Figure 108. "Excavate" Scenario 3 - 2115 Predicted Chromium (pg/L) in the Deep Groundwater Zone Figure 109. "Excavate" Scenario 3 - 2115 Predicted Chromium (pg/L) in the Bedrock Groundwater Zone Figure 110. Initial (2015) Cobalt Concentrations (pg/L) in the Shallow Groundwater Zone Figure 111. Initial (2015) Cobalt Concentrations (pg/L) in the Deep Groundwater Zone Appendix C vii Figure 112. Initial (2015) Cobalt Concentrations (pg/L) in the Bedrock Groundwater Zone Figure 113. "Existing" Scenario 1 - 2115 Predicted Cobalt (pg/L) in the Shallow Groundwater Zone Figure 114. "Existing" Scenario 1 - 2115 Predicted Cobalt (pg/L) in the Deep Groundwater Zone Figure 115. "Existing" Scenario 1 - 2115 Predicted Cobalt (pg/L) in the Bedrock Groundwater Zone Figure 116. "Cap -In -Place" Scenario 2 - 2115 Predicted Cobalt (pg/L) in the Shallow Groundwater Zone Figure 117. "Cap -In -Place" Scenario 2 - 2115 Predicted Cobalt (pg/L) in the Deep Groundwater Zone Figure 118. "Cap -In -Place" Scenario 2 - 2115 Predicted Cobalt (pg/L) in the Bedrock Groundwater Zone Figure 119. "Excavate" Scenario 3 - 2115 Predicted Cobalt (pg/L) in the Shallow Groundwater Zone Figure 120. "Excavate" Scenario 3 - 2115 Predicted Cobalt (pg/L) in the Deep Groundwater Zone Figure 121. "Excavate" Scenario 3 - 2115 Predicted Cobalt (pg/L) in the Bedrock Groundwater Zone Figure 122. Initial (2015) Hexavalent Chromium Concentrations (pg/L) in the Shallow Groundwater Zone Figure 123. Initial (2015) Hexavalent Chromium Concentrations (pg/L) in the Deep Groundwater Zone Figure 124. Initial (2015) Hexavalent Chromium Concentrations (pg/L) in the Bedrock Groundwater Zone Figure 125. "Existing" Scenario 1 - 2115 Predicted Hexavalent Chromium (pg/L) in the Shallow Groundwater Zone Figure 126. "Existing" Scenario 1 - 2115 Predicted Hexavalent Chromium (pg/L) in the Deep Groundwater Zone Figure 127. "Existing" Scenario 1 - 2115 Predicted Hexavalent Chromium (pg/L) in the Bedrock Groundwater Zone Figure 128. "Cap -In -Place" Scenario 2 - 2115 Predicted Hexavalent Chromium (pg/L) in the Shallow Groundwater Zone Figure 129. "Cap -In -Place" Scenario 2 - 2115 Predicted Hexavalent Chromium (pg/L) in the Deep Groundwater Zone Figure 130. "Cap -In -Place" Scenario 2 - 2115 Predicted Hexavalent Chromium (pg/L) in the Bedrock Groundwater Zone Figure 131. "Excavate" Scenario 3 - 2115 Predicted Hexavalent Chromium (pg/L) in the Shallow Groundwater Zone Figure 132. "Excavate" Scenario 3 - 2115 Predicted Hexavalent Chromium (pg/L) in the Deep Groundwater Zone Figure 133. "Excavate" Scenario 3 - 2115 Predicted Hexavalent Chromium (pg/L) in the Bedrock Groundwater Zone Figure 134. Initial (2015) Sulfate Concentrations (pg/L) in the Shallow Groundwater Zone Appendix C viii Figure 135. Initial (2015) Sulfate Concentrations (pg/L) in the Deep Groundwater Zone Figure 136. Initial (2015) Sulfate Concentrations (pg/L) in the Bedrock Groundwater Zone Figure 137. "Existing" Scenario 1 - 2115 Predicted Sulfate (pg/L) in the Shallow Groundwater Zone Figure 138. "Existing" Scenario 1 - 2115 Predicted Sulfate (pg/L) in the Deep Groundwater Zone Figure 139. "Existing" Scenario 1 - 2115 Predicted Sulfate (pg/L) in the Bedrock Groundwater Zone Figure 140. "Cap -In -Place" Scenario 2 - 2115 Predicted Sulfate (pg/L) in the Shallow Groundwater Zone Figure 141. "Cap -In -Place" Scenario 2 - 2115 Predicted Sulfate (pg/L) in the Deep Groundwater Zone Figure 142. "Cap -In -Place" Scenario 2 - 2115 Predicted Sulfate (pg/L) in the Bedrock Groundwater Zone Figure 143. "Excavate" Scenario 3 - 2115 Predicted Sulfate (pg/L) in the Shallow Groundwater Zone Figure 144. "Excavate" Scenario 3 - 2115 Predicted Sulfate (pg/L) in the Deep Groundwater Zone Figure 145. "Excavate" Scenario 3 - 2115 Predicted Sulfate (pg/L) in the Bedrock Groundwater Zone Figure 146. Initial (2015) Vanadium Concentrations (pg/L) in the Shallow Groundwater Zone Figure 147. Initial (2015) Vanadium Concentrations (pg/L) in the Deep Groundwater Zone Figure 148. Initial (2015) Vanadium Concentrations (pg/L) in the Bedrock Groundwater Zone Figure 149. "Existing" Scenario 1 - 2115 Predicted Vanadium (pg/L) in the Shallow Groundwater Zone Figure 150. "Existing" Scenario 1 - 2115 Predicted Vanadium (pg/L) in the Deep Groundwater Zone Figure 151. "Existing" Scenario 1 - 2115 Predicted Vanadium (pg/L) in the Bedrock Groundwater Zone Figure 152. "Cap -In -Place" Scenario 2 - 2115 Predicted Vanadium (pg/L) in the Shallow Groundwater Zone Figure 153. "Cap -In -Place" Scenario 2 - 2115 Predicted Vanadium (pg/L) in the Deep Groundwater Zone Figure 154. "Cap -In -Place" Scenario 2 - 2115 Predicted Vanadium (pg/L) in the Bedrock Groundwater Zone Figure 155. "Excavate" Scenario 3 - 2115 Predicted Vanadium (pg/L) in the Shallow Groundwater Zone Figure 156. "Excavate" Scenario 3 - 2115 Predicted Vanadium (pg/L) in the Deep Groundwater Zone Figure 157. "Excavate" Scenario 3 - 2115 Predicted Vanadium (pg/L) in the Bedrock Groundwater Zone Appendix C ix 1 INTRODUCTION The calibrated flow and transport model third -party peer review team was coordinated by EPRI and included Dr. Chunmiao Zheng from the University of Alabama, James Rumbaugh from Environmental Simulations, Inc, and experienced modelers from Intera, Inc. The reviewers were provided with the CSA, a draft model report, and digital model input and output files, allowing them to reconstruct the model for independent review. During the course of the review, the reviewers communicated with the modelers in order to better understand how the model was developed and calibrated. The reviewers concluded that the model was constructed and calibrated sufficiently to achieve its primary objective of comparing the effects of closure alternatives on nearby groundwater quality. In addition, the reviewers identified limitations with the model, which are included in the discussion of model limitations later in this documentation. 1.1 General Setting and Background Duke Energy owns the Buck Steam Station, located on a 640-acre tract on the Yadkin River in Rowan County near the town of Salisbury, North Carolina. Buck began operation in 1926 as a coal- fired generating station. The Buck Combined Cycle Station (BCCS) natural gas facility was constructed at the site and began operating in late 2011. Subsequently, Buck was decommissioned and taken offline in April 2013. The coal ash residue from Buck's coal combustion process was historically disposed of in the station's ash basin system located adjacent to the station and the Yadkin River (HDR Figures 2-2 and 2-4). Buck was a six -unit coal-fired electricity generating facility along the Yadkin River. Buck began operation of Units 1 and 2 in 1926 as a coal-fired generating station with a capacity of 256 megawatts (MW). Units 1 and 2 were retired in 1979. Units 3 and 4 at Buck, 113 MW combined, were retired in mid-2011 and Units 5 and 6, 143 MW combined, were retired in April 2013. There are no coal-fired units currently in operation at Buck. Construction of the 620-MW BCCS natural gas facility began in 2008. Commercial operation of the natural gas facility began in late 2011. Three combustion turbine units formerly operated adjacent to the coal-fired units and were retired in October 2012. Buildings and other structures associated with power production are generally located in the northwestern section of the site. The eastern portion of the site is generally wooded with the exception of the remaining ponded areas of the ash basin. Refer to HDR Figures 2-2 and 2-4 for maps of the site layout and features. Topography at the Buck site ranges from an approximate high elevation of 734 feet (NAVD 88) at the communications cell tower near the southwest edge of the property to an approximate low elevation of 620 feet at the Yadkin River on the northern margin of the site, with a total elevation change of approximately 114 feet over an approximate distance of 0.9 miles. Surface water drainage flow generally follows site topography from the south to north across the site except where natural drainage patterns have been modified by the ash basin or other construction features. Based on the Comprehensive Site Assessment (CSA) site investigation (HDR 2015), the groundwater system in the natural materials (alluvium, soil, soil/saprolite, and fractured bedrock) at Buck is consistent with the Piedmont regolith-fractured rock system and is an unconfined, connected system of three flow layers (HDR Figure 5-5). In general, groundwater within the shallow, deep transition zone (TZ), and bedrock layers flows radially from the ash basins and northward toward the Yadkin River. Appendix C 1 1.2 Study Objectives The purpose of this study is to predict the groundwater flow and constituent transport that will occur as a result of different possible corrective actions at the site. The study consists of three main activities: development of a calibrated steady-state flow model of current conditions, development of a historical transient model of constituent transport that is calibrated to current conditions, and predictive simulations of the different corrective action options. 2 CONCEPTUAL MODEL The site conceptual model for Buck is primarily based on the Comprehensive Site Assessment Report (CSA Report) for the Buck Steam Station (HDR 2015). The CSA report contains extensive detail and data related to most aspects of the site conceptual model that are used here. The conceptual model, model domain and cross sections though the ash basins are shown in Figures 1- 3. 2.1 Geology and Hydrogeology (HDR 2015) The Buck site is within the Charlotte terrane, one of a number of tectonostratigraphic terranes that have been defined in the southern and central Appalachians and is in the western portion of the larger Carolina superterrane (HDR Figure 5-1). On the northwest side, the Charlotte terrane is in contact with the Inner Piedmont zone along the Central Piedmont suture along its northwest boundary and is distinguished from the Carolina terrane to the southeast by its higher metamorphic grade and portions of the boundary may be tectonic (HDR 2015). The fractured bedrock is overlain by a mantle of unconsolidated material known as regolith. The regolith includes residual soil and saprolite zones and, where present, alluvial deposits. Saprolite, the product of chemical weathering of the underlying bedrock, is typically composed of clay and coarser granular material and reflects the texture and structure of the rock from which it was formed. The weathering products of granitic rocks are quartz -rich and sandy textured. Rocks poor in quartz and rich in feldspar and ferro-magnesium minerals form a more clayey saprolite. Therefore, the groundwater system is a two -medium system generally restricted to the local drainage basin (HDR 2015). The groundwater occurs in a system composed of two interconnected layers: residual soil/saprolite and weathered rock overlying fractured sedimentary rock. The systems are separated by the transition zone portion (TZ) of the residual soil, saprolite, and weathered rock. Typically, the residual soil/saprolite is partially saturated and the water table fluctuates within it. Water movement is generally preferential through the weathered/fractured and fractured bedrock of the TZ (i.e., enhanced permeability zone). The character of such aquifers results from the combined effects of the rock type, fracture system, topography, and weathering. Topography exerts an influence on both weathering and the opening of fractures, while the weathering of the crystalline rock modifies both transmissive and storage characteristics. 2.2 Hydrostratigraphic Layer Development (HDR 2015) The following materials were encountered during the site exploration and are consistent with material descriptions from previous site exploration studies: Ash — Ash was encountered in borings advanced within the ash basin and ash storage areas, as well as through dikes. Ash was generally described as gray to dark gray, non -plastic, loose to medium dense, dry to wet, fine to coarse -grained. Appendix C Fill — Fill material generally consisted of re -worked silts, clays, and sands that were borrowed from one area of the site and re -distributed to other areas. Fill was generally classified as silty sand, clay with sand, clay, and sandy clay on the boring logs. Fill was used in the construction of dikes, and as cover for ash storage area. Alluvium — Alluvium encountered in borings during the project was classified as clay and sand with clay. In some cases alluvium was logged beneath ash. Residuum (Residual soils) — Residuum is the in -place weathered soil that consists primarily of silt with sand, clayey sand, sandy clay, clay with gravel, and clayey silts. Residuum varied in thickness and was relatively thin compared to the thickness of saprolite. Saprolite/Weathered Rock — Saprolite is soil developed by in -place weathering of rock that retains remnant bedrock structure. Saprolite consists primarily of medium dense to very dense silty sand, sandy silt, sand, sand with gravel, sand with clay, clay with sand, and clay. Sand particle size ranges from fine to coarse grained. Much of the saprolite is micaceous. Partially Weathered/Fractured Rock — Partially weathered (slight to moderate) and/or highly fractured rock encountered below auger refusal. Bedrock — Sound rock in boreholes, were generally slightly weathered to fresh and relatively unfractured. Based on the CSA, the groundwater system is consistent with the regolith-fractured bedrock system. To define the hydrostratigraphic units, a classification system used to show that the TZ is present in the Piedmont groundwater system was modified to define the hydrostratigraphic layers of the natural groundwater system (HDR 2015). The classification system is based on Standard Penetration Testing values (N) and the Recovery (REC) and Rock Quality Designation (RQD) collected during the drilling and logging of the boreholes. The ash, fill, and alluvial layers are as encountered at the site. The natural system (except alluvium) includes the following layers: • M1 — Soil/Saprolite: N<50 • M2 — Saprolite/Weathered Rock: N>50 or REC<50% • TZ — Transition Zone: REC>50% and RQD<50% • BR — Bedrock: REC>85% and RQD>50%. Rock core runs that fell between the values for TZ and BR (REC<85% and RQD>50% or REC>85% and RQD<50%) were assigned a hydrostratigraphic layer based on a review of the borehole logs, rock core photographs, and geologic judgment. The same review was performed in making the final determination of the thickness of the TZ as it could extend into the next core run that meets the BR criterion because of potential core loss or fractured/jointed rock with indications of water movement (iron/manganese staining). The above layer designations (M1, M2, TZ, and BR) are used on the geologic cross -sections with transect locations shown on HDR Figure 11-1. The ash, fill, and alluvial layers are represented by A, F, and S, respectively on the cross -sections and tables. Appendix C Ranges of hydrostratigraphic layer properties measured at Buck are provided in HDR Tables 11-7 through 11-11. 2.3 Ash Basins and Ash Storage Area (HDR 2015) Historical and current information about the Buck ash basin system assembled by HDR (2015) is relevant to developing the conceptual and numerical groundwater flow models. Refer to HDR Figures 2-2 and 2-4 for locations of ash basin system components described as follows. The Buck ash basin system is located near the Yadkin River and comprises three cells designated as Cell 1, Cell 2, and Cell 3, and associated embankments and outlet works. The ash basin is located to the south (Cell 1) and southeast (Cells 2 and 3) of the retired Buck Units 1 through 6 and the BCCS. An area between Cell 1 and Cell 2 has also been utilized for storage of dredged ash from Cell 1 and is referred to as the ash storage area. Buck historically produced approximately 100,000 tons of ash per year. Ash Basin The original ash basin at Buck began operation in 1957 and was formed by constructing a dam across a tributary of the Yadkin River with a crest elevation of 680 feet. The footprint of the original ash basin was the approximate current footprint of Cells 2 and 3. As the ash basin capacity diminished over time, the original basin was eventually divided into two ash basins (Cells 2 and 3) by construction of a separate intermediate dike over ash and raising the elevation of the western portion of the earthen dike along the Yadkin River by 10 feet in 1977. In 1982, additional storage was created by construction of Cell 1, separate and upgradient from Cell 2, by building a new dike with a crest elevation of 710 feet. Until Cell 1 was constructed, ash generated from the coal combustion process at Buck was sluiced (via ash discharge lines) into the northwest section of Cell 2. Following construction of Cell 1, discharge of sluiced ash into the ash basin system was rerouted from Cell 2 to the northeast section of Cell 1. All coal ash from Buck was disposed of in the ash basin from approximately 1957 until 2013. Fly ash precipitated from flue gas, and bottom ash collected in the bottom of the boilers were sluiced to the ash basin using conveyance water withdrawn from the Yadkin River. The discharge flow from Cell 1 enters Cell 2 via the Cell 1 discharge tower. Flow from Cell 2 enters Cell 3 via the Cell 2 discharge tower. Flow is discharged through NPDES Outfall 002 to the Yadkin River through the Cell 3 discharge tower located at the north end of Cell 3. The Cell 3 concrete discharge tower drains through a 36-inch-diameter corrugated metal pipe. The approximate current basin elevations (obtained June 2015) for the three ash basin cells are: Cell 1 — pond elevation 701 feet; Cell 2 — pond elevation 682 feet; Cell 3 — pond elevation 673 feet. The elevation of the Yadkin River near the site is approximately 620 feet. The ash basin pond elevations are controlled by the use of concrete stop logs in the three discharge towers. The area contained within the waste boundary for Cell 1 encompasses approximately 90 acres. For purposes of delineating the waste boundary, Cells 2 and 3 are considered a single unit, with the area contained within this portion of the waste boundary encompassing approximately 80.7 acres. The ash basin waste boundary is shown on HDR Figure 2-2. Appendix C 4 The quantity of ash contained within the ash basin was estimated by comparing the digitized pre - basin topographic survey of the site to a topographic and bathymetric survey of the basin, dated November 2013, which was after the last coal-fired generating unit was retired. The estimated in - place quantities of ash are: Cell 1 — 2,366,000 cubic yards (cy), Cell 2 — 1,624,000 cy, and Cell 3 — 227,000 cy. Actual ash quantities may vary from those calculated since soil borrow operations are known to have taken place within the ash basin boundaries prior to the deposition of ash. During operation of the coal-fired units, the ash basin received variable inflows from the ash removal system and other permitted discharges. Currently, the ash basin receives variable inflows from the station yard drain sump, storm water flows, and BCCS wastewater and no longer receives sluiced ash. Cell 3 and the southern portion of Cell 2 continue to serve as treatment units for the ash basin system. Trees and other vegetation have naturally established in the northern portion of Cell 2. The water level within Cell 1 has been lowered such that there is relatively little ponding occurring within the cell. Ash Storage Area An unlined ash storage area is located topographically upgradient and adjacent to the east side of Cell 1 (HDR Figure 2-2). The dry ash storage area covers approximately 14 acres and was constructed in 2009 by excavating ash within the eastern half of Cell 1 in order to provide additional capacity for sluiced ash. Following the completion of excavation and stockpiling, the dry ash storage area was graded to drain to Cell 1 and a minimum of 18 and 24 inches of soil cover were placed on the top slopes and side slopes, respectively, and vegetation was established. The estimated in -place quantity of ash stored at this location is 209,000 cy based on a comparison of original site topography and the topographic survey of the site from November 2013. Dams There are five regulated earthen dams within the Buck ash basin system. These include the Cell 2/Cell 3 main dam located adjacent to the Yadkin River, the Cell 1 dam located south of the BCCS, an intermediate dam that divides Cell 2 and Cell 3, and the small dams associated with the Cell 1 and Cell 2 discharge towers. Dams are also referred to as dikes in this report. The Cell 2/Cell 3 main dam was constructed in 1956 and was formed by constructing a dam across a tributary of the Yadkin River with a crest elevation of 680 feet and a total height at its deepest point of approximately 60 feet. As the ash basin capacity diminished over time, the original basin was eventually divided into two cells (Cells 2 and 3) by construction of a separate intermediate dike over ash and raising the elevation of the western portion of the earthen dike along the Yadkin River by 10 feet (in 1977). At this same time, the canal for the Cell 2 discharge tower was excavated and the dam associated with the discharge tower was constructed with a base elevation at 670 feet and a crest elevation of 690 feet. In 1979, the intermediate dam dividing Cell 2 and Cell 3 was reinforced by constructing an earthen embankment with a crest elevation of 682 feet over ash on the downstream side of the dam. The embankment has a washed stone blanket drain between the soil and underlying ash. In 1982, additional storage was created by construction of Cell 1 dam with a crest elevation of 710 feet and a total height at its deepest point of approximately 60 feet. At this same time, the canal for Appendix C the Cell 1 discharge tower was excavated and the dam associated with the discharge tower was constructed with a base elevation at 685 feet and a crest elevation of 710 feet. 2.4 Groundwater Flow System Groundwater is recharged by infiltration where the ground surface is permeable, including the dikes and ash of the ash basin system where exposed at the ground surface. After infiltrating the ground surface, water in the unsaturated zone percolates downward to the unconfined water table, except where ponded water conditions exists on a portion on the secondary cell of the ash basin system. From the water table, groundwater moves downward and laterally through unconsolidated material (residual soil/saprolite) into the weathered, fractured rock, then into fractured bedrock. Mean annual recharge in the Piedmont ranges from 4.0 to 9.7 inches per year (Daniel 2001). Given that it has not been measured or estimated in the CSA or other studies of the site, recharge to the ash basin system was estimated by considering it as a calibration parameter in the groundwater flow model. Based on the CSA (HDR 2015), the groundwater system in the natural materials (alluvium, soil, soil/saprolite, and bedrock) at Buck is consistent with the Piedmont regolith-fractured rock system and is an unconfined, connected system of three flow layers. Groundwater at the Buck site generally flows from south to north toward to the Yadkin River with components of flow to the east and west toward unnamed tributaries to the Yadkin River located near the eastern and western extents of the site (HDR Figures 6-5, 6-6, and 6-7). Steep horizontal hydraulic gradients in the water table wells and deep wells are associated with flows through the low -conductivity ash basin dikes. In accordance with the Piedmont Slope Aquifer System of LeGrand (2004), bedrock fractured density decreases with depth, limiting deep groundwater flow (HDR Figure 5-5). In the groundwater flow model, fractured bedrock was simulated as an equivalent porous medium. 2.5 Hydrologic Boundaries The major discharge location for the groundwater system at Buck, the Yadkin River, serves as a hydrologic boundary. Local ditches and streams also serve as local, shallow hydrologic boundaries. In the flow model, these smaller features are treated as internal water sink terms. 2.6 Hydraulic Boundaries The groundwater flow system at Buck does not contain impermeable barriers or boundaries with the exception of bedrock at depth where fracture density is minimal. Natural groundwater divides exist along topographic divides but are a result of local flow conditions as opposed to barriers. 2.7 Sources and Sinks Recharge, including that to the ash basins, is the major source of water to the groundwater system. Most of this water discharges to the hydrologic boundaries described above. One hundred sixty six private water supply wells and two public water supply wells within a half -mile radius of the site were identified in the CSA (HDR 2015). The CSA does not consider if the Buck study area is within the capture zone or zone of influence of any extraction well or wells. 2.8 Water Budget Over an extended period of time, the rate of water inflow to the study area is equal to its rate of water outflow. That is, there is no change in groundwater storage. Water enters the groundwater system through recharge and ultimately discharges to the Yadkin River. Appendix C 2.9 Modeled Constituents of Interest (COI) As defined in the CSA, the metals, compounds (or constituents) that were identified in the groundwater assessment plans for sampling and analysis (HDR 2015) are potential COIs. The following criteria were used to determine if a COI required modeling: if the constituent exceeded regulatory groundwater standards (15A NCAC 02L.0202 groundwater standard or interim maximum allowable concentration [IMAC]), formed a continuous and identifiable plume in groundwater, and is traceable back to the source (i.e., existed in porewater) - the constituent was then deemed a COI for transport modeling. Per the CSA, the metals that were detected in ash basin porewater are; antimony, arsenic, barium, boron, cobalt, iron, manganese, thallium, and vanadium. Since boron, antimony, cobalt, sulfate and vanadium form continuous plumes in groundwater and exist in porewater, transport modeling was performed for these COIs. 2.10 Constituent Transport COls entered the ash basin system in the dissolved phase and solid phase of the station's wastewater discharge. Some constituents are also present in native soils and groundwater beneath the basin. In the ash basin, constituents may incur phase changes including dissolution, precipitation, adsorption, and desorption. Dissolved phase constituents may incur these phase changes as they are transported in groundwater flowing downgradient from the basin. In the fate and transport model, chemical constituents enter the basin in the dissolved phase by specifying a steady-state concentration in the ash pore water. Phase changes (dissolution, precipitation, adsorption, and desorption) are collectively taken into account by specifying a linear sorption coefficient Kd. The accumulation and subsequent release of chemical constituents in the ash basin over time is a complex process. In the conceptual fate and transport model, it was assumed that the entry of constituents into the ash basin is represented by a constant concentration in the saturated zone of the basin which is continually flushed by infiltrating recharge from above. 3 COMPUTER MODEL 3.1 Model Selection The computer code MODFLOW solves the system of equations that quantify the flow of groundwater in three dimensions. MODFLOW can simulate steady-state and transient flow, as well as confined and water table conditions. Additional components of groundwater can be considered including pumping wells, recharge, evapotranspiration, rivers, streams, springs, and lakes. The information assembled in the conceptual site model is translated into its numerical equivalent from which a solution is generated by MODFLOW. 3.2 Model Description The specific MODFLOW package chosen for the study is NWT - a Newton formulation of MODFLOW-2005 that is specifically designed for improving the stability of solutions involving drying and re -wetting under water table conditions (Niswonger, et al. 2011). The numerical code selected for the transport model is MT3DMS (Zheng and Wang 1999). MT3DMS is multi -species three- dimensional transport model that can simulate advection, dispersion/diffusion, and chemical reaction of COls in groundwater flow systems and has a package that provides a link to the MODFLOW codes. The MODFLOW-NWT and MT3DMS input packages used to create the groundwater flow and transport model, and a brief description of their use, is provided in Table 1. Appendix C 4 GROUNDWATER FLOW AND TRANSPORT MODEL CONSTRUCTION The flow and transport model for the study was developed through a multi -step process. First, a 3-D model of the site hydrostratigraphy was constructed based on historical site construction drawings and field data. Next, the model domain was determined, from which a numerical was produced. Flow parameters, assigned to the numerical grid, were adjusted during the steady-state flow model calibration process. Once the steady-state flow model was calibrated, a transient transport simulation for the selected COls was calibrated by adjusting transport parameters to best match the current day conditions. Three terrain surface models for Buck were created using geographic information systems (GIS) software: 1) current existing surface, 2) pre -construction surface without ash and ash basin dikes, and 3) pre -construction surface with dikes but without ash. An interpolation tool in ArcGIS 10.3 software was used to generate the terrain surfaces as raster datasets with 20-foot cells. Each surface was created to cover the extent of the groundwater model domain. 4.1 Model Hydrostratigraphy The model hydrostratigraphy was developed using historical site construction drawings and borehole data to construct three-dimensional surfaces representing contacts between hydrostratigraphic units with properties provided in HDR Tables 11-7 through 11-11. 1) Existing Ground Surface Topographic and bathymetry elevation contours and spot elevations were produced from surveys conducted in 2014. Since these surveys did not cover the entire model extent, elevation data extracted as spot elevations from the North Carolina Floodplain Mapping Program's 2010 LiDAR elevation data were used for the areas surrounding the surveys. At Buck, simplified elevation contours were digitized along the river channels to depress the surface a small amount below water level. 2) Pre -construction Surface Elevation contours of the original ground surface were digitized in CAD from engineering drawings supplied by Duke Energy. These data were imported into GIS, and georeferenced. These contours were trimmed to the areas underlying ash basins, dams, and dikes and ash storage areas. The source data used in the existing surface were then replaced by the original surface data where there was overlap. Elevation data from coal storage areas were removed. The pre -construction surface was then created using the combination of original surface elevations, 2014 survey elevations, and 2010 LiDAR elevations. 3) Pre -construction Surface with Dikes Surface models of the ash basin dams and dikes were constructed from crest elevations as determined from the 2014 survey and slopes given on the engineering drawings. Only the sections of the dams and dikes facing the ash basins were modeled in this way. The 2014 survey data were used for dike/dam crests and outwardly facing surfaces. These surfaces were merged with the pre - construction surface. These GIS data sets were exported into formats readable by RockWorksTm and GMS MODFLOW. Appendix C 4) 3-D Hydrostratigraphic Grids The natural materials in the CSA boreholes and existing boreholes were assigned a hydrostratigraphic layer using the above classification scheme and judgment and the borehole data entered into RockWorks 16TM for 3-D modeling. In the portions of the area to be modeled for which borehole data is not available, dummy boreholes were used to extend the model to the model boundaries. These boreholes were based on the hydrostratigraphic thickness of the existing boreholes and the elevation of the existing boreholes based on the assumption that the hydrostratigraphic layers are a subdued replica of the original topography of the site and geologic judgment. A grid of the pre -construction ground surface (described above) was used to constrain the modeling of the natural layers. For gridding the data on a 20 ft x 20 ft grid across the area to be modeled, hybrid algorithm was used with inverse distance weighted two (2) and triangulation weighted one (1) and declustering, smoothing, and densifying subroutines. The declustering option is used to remove duplicate points and de -cluster clustered points. The option creates a temporary grid with a z-value assigned based on the closet data point to the midpoint of a voxel. The smoothing option averages the z-values in a grid based on a filter size. For this modeling, the z-value is assigned the average of itself and that of the eight nodes immediately surrounding it. One smoothing pass is made. The densify option adds additional points to the xyz input by fitting a Delaunay triangulation network to the data and adding the midpoint of each triangle to the xyz input points. The net result is that the subsequent gridding process uses more control points and tends to constrain algorithms that may become creative in areas of little control. Only one densification pass is made. The completed model grids were exported in spreadsheet format for use in the groundwater flow and transport model. 4.2 GMS MODFLOW Version 10 The conceptual model approach to construct a MODFLOW simulation in GMS MODFLOW consists of employing GIS tools in a map module to develop a conceptual model of the site being modeled. The location of sources/sinks, layer parameters (such as hydraulic conductivity), and all other data necessary for the simulation can be defined at the conceptual model level. Once this model is complete, the grid is generated and the conceptual model is converted to the grid model and all of the cell -by -cell assignments are performed automatically The following table presents the sequence of the steps used for the groundwater modeling. Steps 1 through 6 describe the creation of 3-D MODFLOW model. Step 1. Creating raster files for the model layer - 3 surface layers (pre -construction, pre -construction with dike, and existing surface including dike and ash) using GIS and AutoCad - 2 subsurface layers (transition (TZ) and bedrock (BR)) by converting 3-D scatter data Step 2. Creating the Raster Catalog to group the raster layers - Assigning Horizons and materials for each layer Step 3. Creating horizon surfaces (i.e. TIN) from raster data - Used exiting surface and bedrock rasters Appendix C Step 4. Building Solids from the Raster Catalog and TINs - Used raster data for the top and bottom elevations of the solids Step 5. Creating the conceptual model - Building model boundary, specified head boundary, and drain - Defining zones and assigning hydraulic conductivity and recharge rate - Importing observation wells and surface flow data Step 6. Creating the MODFLOW 3-D grid model - Converting the solids to 3-D grid model using boundary matching - Mapping the conceptual model to 3-D MODFLOW grid Step 7. Flow model calibration/Sensitivity Analysis - Initializing the MODFLOW model - Steady-state calibration with the trial -and -error method - Parameters: hydraulic conductivity and recharge rate - Used observation well and surface flow data Step 8. Setting the transport model (MT3DMS) - Species - Stress periods - Porosity and dispersion coefficient - Distribution coefficient (Kd) from the lab experiments - Recharge concentrations Step 9. Performing model simulations - Model scenarios - Existing Conditions, Cap -in -Place, and Excavation 4.3 Model Domain and Grid The model domain encompasses the Buck site, including a section of the Yadkin River and all site features relevant to the assessment of groundwater. The model domain extends beyond the ash management areas to hydrologic boundaries such that groundwater flow and COI transport through the area is accurately simulated without introducing artificial boundary effects. The bounding rectangle around the model domain extends 8,900 feet north to south and 8,700 feet east to west and has a grid consisting of 626,062 active cells in ten layers (Figures 1-3). In plan view, the Buck model domain is bounded by the following hydrologic features of the site (Figure 4): • the southern shore of the Yadkin River to the north, • the drainage divide to the west between the Yadkin River and Long Ferry Road, Appendix C 10 the drainage divide approximately defined by Long Ferry and Leonard Roads to the south, and the drainage feature, pond, and unnamed stream to the east between Leonard Road and the Yadkin River. Within the model domain, the unnamed stream and drainage feature to the west of the Primary Cell acts as an internal boundary. The domain boundary was developed by manually digitizing 2-foot LiDAR contours in ArcMap. The lower limit of the model domain coincides with an assumed maximum depth of water yielding fractures in bedrock. This was assumed to be 80 feet below the base of the TZ across the site upper limit based on a review of boring logs contained in the CSA (HDR 2015). There are a total of 10 model layers divided among the identified hydrostratigraphic units to simulate flow with a vertical flow component (Figures 2 and 3). The units are represented by the model layers listed below: • Model layers 1 through 3 • Model layers 2 through 4 • Model layer 5 • Model layer 6 • Model layer 7 • Model layer 8 • Model layers 9 and 10 Ash Material Dike and Ash Storage Material M1 Saprolite and Alluvium where present M1 Saprolite M2 Saprolite Transition Zone Fractured Bedrock 4.4 Hydraulic Parameters Horizontal and vertical hydraulic conductivities, which are specific for each hydrostratigraphic unit, are the primary determinants of groundwater flow for a given configuration of boundary conditions and sources and sinks, including recharge. Field measurements of these parameters from the CSA (HDR Tables 11-7 through 11-11) provided guidance for their selection during the flow model calibration. 4.5 Flow Model Boundary Conditions Boundary conditions for the Buck flow model are one of two types: constant head or drain. No -flow boundaries of the site have no prescribed boundary in the model. The outer boundary of the model domain was selected to coincide with physical hydrologic boundaries at rivers and drainage features, and no -flow boundaries at topographic divides (Figure 4). External and internal drain boundaries were applied at the unnamed streams east and west of the site and at selected low areas in the model interior to limit the rise of the modeled water table above ground surface (Figure 4). At the unnamed tributaries, drain boundaries were applied with an assumed conductance of 10 feet/day, an assumed bed thickness of one foot, and width equal to the model cell width. It is noted that constant head boundary conditions may not be valid if groundwater extraction is considered as a corrective action alternative. In this case, the constant head boundary assumption should be validated by a pump test or other means. Appendix C 11 4.6 Flow Model Sources and Sinks Recharge is the only source considered in the model. (Drainage boundaries are described above as flow boundary conditions.) No pumping wells or other sources and sinks were explicitly identified in the CSA (HDR 2015). The mean annual recharge in the Piedmont ranges from 4.0 to 9.7 inches per year (Daniel 2001). The recharge applied in the model is shown in Figure 5. 4.7 Flow Model Calibration Targets The steady-state flow model calibration targets are the 58 water level observations made in July 2015. These wells include 26 wells screened in the ash, the dikes, and shallow zone (S/M1/M2), 18 wells in the transition zone, and 14 wells fractured bedrock. Observations were assigned by layer as shown in Table 3. 4.8 Transport Model Parameters The calibrated, steady-state flow model was used to apply flow conditions for the transport models at the Active Ash Basin Primary Cell, Ash Storage Area, and Secondary Cell (as shown in HDR CSA Figures 2-2 and 2-4) where the highest concentrations were detected during the July 2015 sampling event. The Primary and Secondary cells of the Active Ash Basin are also referred to as Cell 1 Additional Primary Cell and the Cell 3 Secondary Pond on selected figures from the CSA. Although their approximate dates of operation are known, the sluiced ash loading histories for these locations are not available. In order to develop a tool for predictive modeling at these locations, constant concentration boundary conditions were applied at the water table at each location starting from the date when the ash basin was placed in service. The relevant input parameters are the constant concentration at the boundary as shown in Table 5. The linear sorption coefficient Kd applied for sorptive constituents antimony, cobalt, and vanadium are 0.3 ml/g, 0.3 ml/g and 0.1 ml/g, respectively. Preliminary results for sorption studies on soil samples obtained during the CSA at Buck indicate that the approximate minimum Kd for vanadium in native soils beneath the ash basin system is 110 ml/gram. Sorption is considered to be a calibration parameter as discussed in Section 5.3. A soil bulk density estimate of 2.12 grams/cubic centimeter for ash and 2.65 grams/cubic centimeter for native soils were applied to the model. The transport models for each COI were calibrated by adjusting the constant source concentration at the water table above the target measured concentrations in adjacent wells (HDR Figures 10-9 and 10-13 through 10-15) after a 33-year simulation (1982-2015). The footprint of the source area was limited by surrounding wells where the COI was non -detect. A comparison of the observed and predicted concentrations of COls after model calibration is provided in Table 3. Particle tracking was performed during model calibration to determine if advective travel times are reasonable. Particles were placed at downgradient monitoring wells located nearest to the Yadkin River and also near the southern model boundary. The particle tracks are shown in Figure 14 and advective travel times are provided in Table 7. Porosity is directly related to the flow velocity of COls through the subsurface. A single porosity value of 0.20 was assigned to the ash, dike, and S/M1/M2 layers which is within the range of estimated values from the CSA (HDR 2015). For the transition zone and fractured bedrock, the porosities applied were 0.10 and 0.0005, respectively. Dispersivity quantifies the degree to which mechanical dispersion of COls occurs in advecting groundwater. Dispersivity values of 80 feet, and 8 feet (longitudinal, transverse horizontal, transverse vertical) were applied in this model. Traditionally, dispersivity is estimated to be some fraction of the scale, or plume length (Zheng and Bennett [2002]). The commonly applied estimate is ten percent of the observation scale. Appendix C 12 In order to avoid artificial oscillation in the numerical solution to the advection dispersion equation, the grid Peclet number = (grid spacing/longitudinal dispersivity) should be less than two (Zheng and Bennett [2002]). This implies that the maximum grid spacing in the principal direction of groundwater flow should by less than 160 feet. The principal flow direction varies between vertical directly beneath the COI source areas to horizontal outside the source areas. 4.9 Transport Model Boundary Conditions The transport model boundary conditions have zero concentration where water leaves the model. Initial concentrations, and concentrations in infiltrating recharge water, are zero. No background concentration is specified. The active ash basin primary cell, ash storage area, and secondary cell are represented by constant concentration boundary conditions. 4.10 Transport Model Sources and Sinks The primary and secondary ash basin cells and the ash storage area are the sources for COls in the model. Sources are modeled as a fixed concentration in the saturated ash layers of these areas (Figure 5). The transport model sinks correspond to the constant head and drain boundaries of the flow model. Water and COI mass are removed as they enter cells comprising these boundaries. 4.11 Transport Model Calibration Targets The calibration targets are the measured arsenic and boron concentrations for July 2015 shown in HDR Figures 10-9, 10-13 through 10-15, and 10-19 through 10-21. The specific target wells used for model calibration are listed in Table 5 5 MODEL CALIBRATION TO CURRENT CONDITIONS 5.1 Flow Model Residual Analysis The flow model was calibrated to the 58 water level observations taken during July 2015 in shallow, deep, and bedrock wells. Water table elevation in the ash basin cells and selected depressions across the site were also considered as part of the calibration. The locations of the observation wells are provided in Figures 6 through 8. The trial -and -error calibration assumed homogeneous conditions in each model layer. Beyond the ash basin cells, the model was most sensitive to hydraulic conductivity of the upper, residual soil/saprolite layers (S/M1/M2) and TZ where the elevation of the water table was inversely proportional to these parameters. The water table in the ash basins was sensitive to hydraulic conductivity of the fill or dike. The flow model was also sensitive to recharge. Throughout the flow model calibration process, the assumption of a homogeneous transition zone was retained, and its horizontal conductivity was assigned to give a reasonable, model result for the water table and water level observations. Recharge was also fixed at reasonable values early in the calibration process, and then refinements were made by adjusting hydraulic conductivity in the upper layers (S/M1/M2) zonally as shown in Figure 9. The basis for delineating the zones in this way was to obtain the best calibration locally using conductivity values within the range of measurements made during the CSA. Beyond the ash basin cells where groundwater flow is essentially horizontal, the model was relatively insensitive to vertical hydraulic conductivity. Within the primary and secondary cells where infiltration from recharge flows downward, the water table elevation was dependent on the vertical hydraulic conductivity of the dike. Appendix C 13 The calibrated flow model parameters are provided in Table 2. Measured and modeled water levels (post -calibration) are compared in Table 3 and Figure 10. The calibrated flow model is considered to represent steady-state flow conditions for the site and the ash basin system under a long-term, average condition. The average root mean squared error (RMS) of the measured versus modeled water levels for wells gauged in July 2015 is also provided in Table 3 for comparison with total measured head change across the model domain. The model calibration goal is an RMS error less than 10% of the change in head across the model domain. The ratio of the average RMS error to total measured head change (the normalized root mean square error NRMSE), is 8.0 percent. This NRMSE calculation omits two wells that appeared to have anomalous measured water levels relative to the calibrated model. The residuals (measured head — modeled head) in wells AB-10S and AB-91D were +21.0 ft, and -43 ft, respectively. Both of these wells are located in dikes where the gradient of head is steep. Scaling and discretization of the model in combination with the elevation change in the dikes may account for a significant portion of these residuals. Contours of hydraulic heads for the calibrated flow model are shown in Figures 11 through 13. Groundwater in the shallow aquifer, transition zone, and fractured bedrock flows radially from the area centered on the primary cell discharge tower to the north, northeast, and northwest. Flow to north discharges to the Yadkin River. Flows to the east and west discharge to the unnamed streams and pond located there. Steeper hydraulic gradients in the shallow aquifer are associated with the dikes west of the primary cell and east of the secondary cell. Groundwater flow from beneath the ash basins is primarily vertical through the underlying dike and shallow aquifer. Groundwater flow transitions to primarily horizontal flow at depths beneath the basins and beyond their lateral extent. 5.2 Flow Model Sensitivity Analysis Sensitivity of the flow model was considered by varying selected parameters by 20 percent above and below their respective calibration values and calculating the NRMSE for comparison with the calibration value as shown in Table 3. Based on this approach, the flow model was most sensitive to horizontal hydraulic conductivity of the shallow aquifer, followed by recharge to areas beyond the ash basin cells, and hydraulic conductivity of the transition zone. The model is less sensitive to vertical hydraulic conductivity beyond the ash basins, where the dominant flow direction is horizontal. The elevation of the water table in the ash basin is particularly sensitive to recharge although the effect on the site -wide NRMSE is limited. 5.3 Transport Model Calibration and Sensitivity For transport model calibration, the constant source concentrations (resulting from contaminant flux to groundwater from the ash basins and ash storage area sources) were adjusted to match the concentrations in target wells as closely as possible. The constant source concentrations and Kd were adjusted during transport model calibration. The transport model calibration results are shown in Table 5. Particle tracking was performed during model calibration to determine if advective travel times are reasonable. Particles were placed at wells located near the Yadkin River and also in the ash basins. The particle tracks are shown in Figure 14 and predicted advective travel times are provided in Table 6. Sensitivity analyses for sorption and porosity are provided in Tables 7 and 8. When the sorption coefficient for arsenic was reduced by 50% from the calibration value, the modeled concentrations increased as expected. Based on a comparison of AB-2S and AB-2SL, sensitivity to Kd increases with distance from the constant source concentration. It is anticipated Appendix C 14 that this effect is diminished away from the source area. Arsenic concentrations decreased when porosity was increased from 0.2 to 0.3, although the magnitude of the increase was small. This may be a consequence of the slow groundwater velocities in the underlying dike and shallow aquifer beneath the Primary Cell. P1 Boron concentrations also decreased when porosity was increased from 0.2 to 0.3. In general, the magnitude of the decrease was greater beyond the area beneath the ash cells and storage where groundwater velocities are higher. 6 PREDICTIVE SIMULATIONS OF CLOSURE SCENARIOS The groundwater model, calibrated for flow and constituent fate and transport under existing conditions, was applied to evaluate three closure scenarios at Buck: an Existing Conditions scenario; the ash basins and ash storage areas Cap -in -Place scenario; and the Excavation scenario (ash basins and ash storage areas removal). Being predictive, these simulations produce flow and transport results for conditions that are beyond the range of those considered during the calibration. Thus, the model should be recalibrated and verified over time as new data becomes available in order to improve its accuracy and reduce its uncertainty. The model domain developed for existing conditions was applied without modification for the Existing Conditions and Cap -in -Place scenarios. For the Excavation scenario, the active ash basin primary cell, the active ash basin old primary cell, the active ash basin secondary cell, and the ash storage areas were removed. The flow parameters for this model were identical to the existing conditions models except for the removal of ash related layers, and the same recharge rate being applied across the site. 6.1 Existing Conditions Scenario The Existing Conditions scenario consists of modeling each COI using the calibrated model for steady-state flow and transient transport under the existing conditions across the site until steady state concentrations or a time period of 250 years are reached across the site and at the compliance boundary. Active and inactive ash basin and ash storage areas are constant concentration sources under this scenario. COI concentrations can only remain the same or increase initially for this scenario with source concentrations being held at their constant value over all time. Thereafter, their concentrations and discharge rates remain constant. This scenario represents the worst case in terms of groundwater concentrations on and off site. The time to achieve a steady state concentration plume depends on the source zone location relative to the compliance boundary and its loading history. Source zones close to the compliance will reach steady state sooner. The time to steady state concentration is also dependent on the sorptive characteristics of each COI. Sorptive COls will be transient for a longer time period as their peak breakthrough concentration travels at a rate that is less than the groundwater pore velocity. Lower effective porosity will result in shorter times to achieve steady for both sorptive and non- sorptive COIs. Lower total porosity will result in longer times for sorptive COIs. Concentration contours and concentration breakthrough curves are all referenced to a time zero that represents the time the closure action was implemented, which for the purpose of modeling is assumed to be 2016. The scenario models COI concentrations forward from the end of the 58-year simulation and represents 2015 as the initial concentrations. Constituent concentrations were analyzed at six downgradient nested well sites. Monitor wells GWA-3S, GWA-3BRU, GWA-4S, and GWA-41D, are located northeast of the active ash basin secondary cell towards the Yadkin River. Appendix C 15 Monitor wells GWA-5S and GWA-5BRU are located north of the active ash basin secondary cell towards the Yadkin River. Monitor wells GWA-12S and GWA-12BRU are located northeast of active ash basin secondary cell and north of the active ash basin primary cell towards the Yadkin River. Monitoring wells GWA-9S and GWA-9BR are located north of the active ash basin primary cell towards the Yadkin River. Monitor well GWA-22D is located northwest of the active ash basin primary cell towards the Yadkin River. Figures 15 through 24 show predicted antimony concentrations versus time at representative monitoring wells under all three scenarios. The concentration versus time curves show that under the Existing Conditions scenario, antimony concentrations increase in all remaining wells from the 2015 conditions. Antimony concentrations do not achieve a steady-state in any well as concentrations are still increasing by year 2265. Antimony concentrations are above the IMAC for antimony, which is 1 pg/I, in 2015 in wells GWA-3S, GWA-5S, and GWA-5BRU and remain above standard for antimony through 2265. Antimony concentrations increase above the IMAC standard by year 2045 in wells GWA-41D, GWA-91D, GWA-22D and GWA-3BRU and by 2265 the concentration in all wells exceeds the IMAC standard. Figures 74 through 76 show the predicted antimony concentrations under this scenario in the shallow, deep, and fractured bedrock zones in 2015, respectively. Figures 77 through 79 show the shallow, deep, and fractured bedrock zones in 2115. All three groundwater zones show antimony greater than the IMAC standard of 1 pg/L at the compliance boundary and at the Yadkin River. Antimony exits the model with groundwater discharging at the Yadkin River to the north and east of the active ash basin secondary cell in all groundwater zones. The highest concentrations of antimony leave the model north of the active ash basin old primary cell. Figures 25 through 31 show predicted boron concentrations versus time at representative monitoring wells under all three model scenarios. The concentration versus time curves show that under the Existing Conditions scenario, boron concentrations increase in all remaining wells from the 2015 conditions. Boron concentrations achieve a steady state in all wells by year 2147. Boron concentrations are above the 2L Standard, which is 700 pg/l, in wells GWA-5S, GWA-91D, GWA- 22D, GWA-3BRU, GWA-5BRU and GWA-9BR and remain high through 2265 and boron concentrations increase to above the 2L Standard by year 2019 in well GWA-3S. Figures 86 through 88 show the predicted boron concentrations under this scenario in the shallow, deep, and fractured bedrock zones in 2015, respectively. Figures 89 through 91 show the shallow, deep, and fractured bedrock zones in 2115. All three groundwater zones show boron greater than the 2L Standard of 700 pg/L at the compliance boundary and at the Yadkin River. Boron exits the model with groundwater discharging at the Yadkin River to the north of the active ash basin primary cell and to the north and east of the active ash basin secondary cell in all groundwater zones. The highest concentrations of boron leave the model north of the active ash basin old primary cell. Figures 32 through 38 show predicted chromium concentrations versus time at representative monitoring wells under all three model scenarios. The concentration versus time curves show that under the Existing Conditions scenario, chromium concentrations increase in all remaining wells from the 2015 conditions. Chromium concentrations do not achieve a steady-state in any well as concentrations are still increasing by year 2265. Chromium concentrations are above the 2L Standard, which is 10 pg/I for chromium, in wells GWA-5S and GWA-5BRU in 2015 and remain above the standard through 2265. By year 2115, chromium concentrations have increased above the 2L Standard in wells GWA-3S, GWA-12S, GWA-3BRU and GWA-12BRU and by year 2235 chromium concentrations in well GWA-41D exceed the 2L Standard. Figures 98 through 100 show Appendix C 16 the predicted chromium concentrations under this scenario in the shallow, deep, and fractured bedrock zones in 2015, respectively. Figures 101 through 103 show the shallow, deep, and fractured bedrock zones in 2115. All three groundwater zones show chromium greater than the 2L Standard of 10 pg/L at the compliance boundary and at the Yadkin River. Chromium exits the model with groundwater discharging at the Yadkin River to the north and east of the active ash basin secondary cell in all groundwater zones. The highest concentrations of chromium leave the model north of the active ash basin old primary cell. Figures 39 through 49 show predicted cobalt concentrations versus time at representative monitoring wells under all three model scenarios. The concentration versus time curves show that, under the Existing Conditions scenario, cobalt concentrations increase in all remaining wells from the 2015 conditions. Cobalt concentrations do not achieve a steady-state in any well as concentrations are still increasing by year 2265. Cobalt concentrations in 2015 are above the IMAC standard, which is 1 pg/I for cobalt, in wells GWA-3S, GWA-5S, GWA-41D, GWA-91D, GWA-3BRU and GWA-5BRU and remain above the standard through2265. By year 2070, cobalt concentrations have increased above the IMAC standard in wells GWA-4S and GWA-9S and by year 2265 cobalt concentrations have exceeded the IMAC standard in all wells. Figures 110 through 112 show the predicted cobalt concentrations under this scenario in the shallow, deep, and fractured bedrock zones in 2015, respectively. Figures 113 through 115 show the shallow, deep, and fractured bedrock zones in 2115. All three groundwater zones show cobalt greater than the IMAC standard of 1 pg/L at the compliance boundary and at the Yadkin River. Cobalt exits the model with groundwater discharging at the Yadkin River to the north of the active ash basin primary cell in the shallow and deep zones and to the north and east of the active ash basin secondary cell in all groundwater zones. The highest concentrations of cobalt leave the model north of the active ash basin old primary cell. Figures 50 through 57 show predicted hexavalent chromium concentrations versus time at representative monitoring wells under all three model scenarios. The concentration versus time curves show that, under the Existing Conditions scenario, hexavalent chromium concentrations increase in all remaining wells from the 2015 conditions. Hexavalent chromium concentrations do not achieve a steady-state in any well as concentrations are still increasing by year 2265. Hexavalent chromium concentrations remain above DHHS standard, which is 0.07 pg/I, for in all wells throughout the modeling period. Figures 122 through 124 show the predicted hexavalent chromium concentrations under this scenario in the shallow, deep, and fractured bedrock zones in 2015, respectively. Figures 125 through 127 show the shallow, deep, and fractured bedrock zones in 2115. All three groundwater zones show hexavalent chromium greater than the 2L Standard of 0.07 pg/L at the compliance boundary and at the Yadkin River in year 2115. Hexavalent chromium exits the model with groundwater discharging at the Yadkin River to the north and east of the active ash basin secondary cell in all groundwater zones. The highest concentrations of hexavalent chromium leave the model northeast of the active ash basin old primary cell. Figures 58 through 61 show predicted sulfate concentrations versus time at representative monitoring wells under all three model scenarios. The concentration versus time curves show that under the Existing Conditions scenario, sulfate concentrations increase in the four remaining wells from the 2015 conditions. Sulfate concentrations achieve a steady state in all wells by year 2141. Sulfate concentrations remain above the 2L Standard, which is 250,000 pg/I for sulfate, in wells GWA-41D and GWA-9BR till 2265 and sulfate concentrations increase above the 2L Standard by year 2063 in well GWA-91D. Predicted sulfate concentrations will not exceed the 2L Standard in well Appendix C 17 GWA-5BRU under the Existing Conditions scenario. Figures 134 through 136 show the predicted sulfate concentrations under this scenario in the shallow, deep, and fractured bedrock zones in 2015, respectively. Figures 137 through 139 show the shallow, deep, and fractured bedrock zones in 2115. All three groundwater zones show sulfate greater than the 2L Standard of 250,000 pg/L at the compliance boundary and at the Yadkin River. Sulfate exits the model with groundwater discharging at the Yadkin River to the north of the active ash basin primary cell and to the north and east of the active ash basin secondary cell in all groundwater zones. The highest concentrations of sulfate leave the model north and east of the active ash basin old primary cell. Figures 62 through 73 show predicted vanadium concentrations versus time at representative monitoring wells under all three model scenarios. The predicted vanadium concentration in all wells exceeds the IMAC for vanadium, which is 0.3 pg/I, in all scenarios. The concentration versus time curves show that, under the Existing Conditions scenario, vanadium concentrations increase in all wells from the 2015 conditions. Vanadium concentrations do not achieve a steady-state in any well as concentrations are still increasing by year 2265. Vanadium concentrations are above the IMAC standard for vanadium in wells GWA-3S, GWA-4S, GWA-5S, GWA-9S, GWA-41D, GWA-91D, GWA- 22D, GWA-3BRU, and GWA-5BRU in 2015 and remain above the standard through 2265. By year 2035, the vanadium concentration in wells GWA-12S, GWA-9BR, and GWA-12BRU will exceed the IMAC standard. Figures 146 through 148 show the predicted vanadium concentrations under this scenario in the shallow, deep, and fractured bedrock zones in 2015, respectively. Figures 149 through 151 show the shallow, deep, and fractured bedrock zones in 2115. All three groundwater zones show vanadium greater than the IMAC standard of 0.3 pg/L at the compliance boundary and at the Yadkin River. Vanadium exits the model with groundwater discharging at the Yadkin River to the north and west of the active ash basin primary cell in the shallow, deep, and bedrock zones and to the north and east of the active ash basin secondary cell in all groundwater zones. The highest concentrations of vanadium leave the model north of the active ash basin primary cell. 6.2 Ash Basin Cap -in -Place Scenario The Cap -in -Place model simulates the effects of covering the ash basins and ash storage areas, and inactive ash basins at the beginning of this scenario. In the model, recharge and source zone concentrations at the ash basins and ash storage areas are set to zero at the beginning of the simulation. Groundwater flow is affected by this scenario as the water table is lowered and groundwater velocities may be reduced beneath the covered areas. The water table within the active ash basin primary cell is reduced by approximately 35 feet, and within the active ash basin old primary and secondary cell is reduced by approximately 33 feet. In the model, non sorptive COls will move downgradient at the pore velocity of groundwater and will be displaced by the passage of a single pore water volume of clean water. Sorptive COI migration will be retarded relative to the groundwater pore velocity as they are desorbed by clean water. The model uses the predicted concentrations from the 2015 calibration as the starting concentrations for the model scenario. Figures 15 through 24 show predicted antimony concentrations versus time at representative monitoring wells under all three scenarios. The concentration versus time curves show that under the Cap -in -Place scenario, antimony concentrations increase in all remaining wells except GWA-3S from the 2015 conditions. Of the initially increasing wells, only well GWA-3BRU has reached a peak concentration and is decreasing by year 2115. Antimony concentrations in GWA-91D and GWA-22D achieve a steady-state by year 2125. The remaining six initially increasing wells continue to increase through 2265. Antimony concentrations remain above the IMAC standard in wells GWA-5S and Appendix C 18 GWA-5BRU through 2265. Antimony concentrations increase above the IMAC standard by year 2025 in well GWA-41D, and 2190 in well GWA-4S. Concentrations in well GWA-3S begin the scenario above the IMAC standard but decrease below the standard value in year 2019 and continue decreasing through the modeling period. Antimony concentrations do not exceed the IMAC standard under the Cap -in -Place scenario in wells, GWA-12S, GWA-91D, GWA-3BRU, or GWA- 12BRU. Figures 80 through 82 show the predicted antimony concentrations under this scenario in the shallow, deep, and fractured bedrock zones in 2115. All three groundwater zones show antimony greater than the IMAC standard of 1 pg/L at the compliance boundary and at the Yadkin River. Antimony exits the model with groundwater discharging at the Yadkin River to the north and east of the active ash basin secondary cell in all groundwater zones. The highest concentrations of antimony leave the model north of the active ash basin old primary cell. Figures 25 through 31 show predicted boron concentrations versus time at representative monitoring wells under all three model scenarios. The concentration versus time curves show that under the Cap -in -Place scenario, boron concentrations decrease in all remaining wells except for well GWA- 5BRU from the 2015 conditions. By year 2018 the concentrations in GWA-5BRU have peaked and are decreasing. Boron concentrations do not achieve a steady state as concentrations are decreasing in all wells in year 2265. Boron concentrations begin the scenario above the 2L Standard in wells GWA-5S, GWA-91D, GWA-22D, GWA-3BRU, GWA-5BRU and GWA-9BR, but by year 2115 concentrations have decreased below the standard value in all wells except GWA-5S and GWA- 5BRU, and by year 2265 concentrations are below the 2L Standard in all wells. Figures 92 through 94 show the predicted boron concentrations under this scenario in the shallow, deep, and fractured bedrock zones in 2115, respectively. All three groundwater zones show boron greater than the 2L Standard of 700 pg/L at the compliance boundary and at the Yadkin River. Boron exits the model with groundwater discharging at the Yadkin River to the north of the active ash basin primary cell and to the north and east of the active ash basin secondary cell in all groundwater zones. The highest concentrations of boron leave the model north of the active ash basin old primary cell. Figures 32 through 38 show predicted chromium concentrations versus time at representative monitoring wells under all three model scenarios. The concentration versus time curves show that under the Cap -in -Place scenario, chromium concentrations increase from the 2015 conditions in all remaining wells except GWA-3S and GWA-4D,. Concentrations in wells GWA-5S, GWA-12S, GWA- 3BRU, and GWA-5BRU reach peaks by years 2059, 2220, 2126, and 2180, respectively, after which concentrations decrease through to year 2265. Concentrations in well GWA-41D decrease until year 2035, after which concentrations increase through to year 2265, and concentrations in GWA-12BRU increase throughout the scenario time frame. Concentrations in well GWA-3S are decreasing at the beginning and end of the scenario. Chromium concentrations do not achieve a steady-state in any well by year 2265. Chromium concentrations remain above the 2L Standard for chromium in wells GWA-5S and GWA-5BRU through 2265 and concentrations in GWA-12S and GWA-12BRU are above the 2L Standard by year 2265. Concentrations in the remaining three wells are below the 2L Standard throughout the scenario run. Figures 104 through 106 show the predicted chromium concentrations under this scenario in the shallow, deep, and fractured bedrock zones in 2115, respectively. All three groundwater zones show chromium greater than the 2L Standard of 10 pg/L at the compliance boundary and at the Yadkin River. Chromium exits the model with groundwater discharging at the Yadkin River to the north and east of the active ash basin secondary cell in all groundwater zones. The highest concentrations of chromium leave the model north of the active ash basin old primary cell. Appendix C 19 Figures 39 through 49 show predicted cobalt concentrations versus time at representative monitoring wells under all three model scenarios. The concentration versus time curves show that under the Cap -in -Place scenario, cobalt concentrations increase in all remaining wells except for GWA-3S, GWA-41D, and GWA-3BRU from the 2015 conditions. Cobalt concentrations in wells GWA- 4S, GWA-12S, GWA-5BRU and GWA-12BRU continue to increase throughout the scenario time frame while concentrations in well GWA-3S decrease throughout the time frame. After initially decreasing, cobalt concentrations in well GWA-41D begins to increase by year 2029 and continues to increase to year 2265. After initially increasing, cobalt concentrations in wells, GWA-5S, GWA-91D, GWA-22D, and GWA-3BRU, are all decreasing by year 2143. Cobalt concentrations do not achieve a steady-state in any well by year 2265. Cobalt concentrations remain above the IMAC standard for cobalt in wells GWA-5S, GWA-41D, GWA-91D, GWA-22D, and GWA-5BRU till 2265. By year 2115, cobalt concentrations have increased above the IMAC standard in wells GWA-4S and GWA-9S. Cobalt concentrations in wells GWA-3S and GWA-3BRU are initially above the IMAC standard, but by 2027 and 2053, respectively, concentrations have decreased below the IMAC standard and remain below through year 2265. Cobalt concentrations in wells GWA-12S and GWA-12BRU do not exceed the IMAC standard under the Cap -in -Place scenario conditions. Figures 116 through 118 show the predicted cobalt concentrations under this scenario in the shallow, deep, and fractured bedrock zones in 2115, respectively. All three groundwater zones show cobalt greater than the IMAC standard of 1 tag/L at the compliance boundary and at the Yadkin River. Cobalt exits the model with groundwater discharging at the Yadkin River to the north of the active ash basin primary cell in the shallow and deep zones and to the north and east of the active ash basin secondary cell in all groundwater zones. The highest concentrations of cobalt leave the model north of the active ash basin old primary cell. Figures 50 through 57 show predicted hexavalent chromium concentrations versus time at representative monitoring wells under all three model scenarios. The concentration versus time curves show that under the Cap -in -Place scenario, hexavalent chromium concentrations increase in all remaining wells except for GWA-3S, from the 2015 conditions, but the concentration in all wells is increasing by year 2265. Hexavalent chromium concentrations do not achieve a steady-state in any well as concentrations are still increasing by year 2265. Hexavalent chromium concentrations remain above DHHS standard for hexavalent chromium in wells GWA-3S, GWA-5S, GWA-41D, and GWA- 5BRU till 2265. By year 2115, hexavalent chromium concentrations have increased above the DHHS standard in wells GWA-4S, GWA-22D, and GWA-3BRU, and by year 2190 the concentration in GWA-91D exceeds the DHHS standard. Figures 128 through 130 show the predicted hexavalent chromium concentrations under this scenario in the shallow, deep, and fractured bedrock zones in 2115, respectively. All three groundwater zones show hexavalent chromium greater than the 2L Standard of 0.07 tag/L at the compliance boundary and at the Yadkin River in year 2115. Hexavalent chromium exits the model with groundwater discharging at the Yadkin River to the north and east of the active ash basin secondary cell in all groundwater zones. The highest concentrations of hexavalent chromium leave the model northeast of the active ash basin old primary cell. Figures 58 through 61 show predicted sulfate concentrations versus time at representative monitoring wells under all three model scenarios. The concentration versus time curves show that under the Cap -in -Place scenario, sulfate concentrations increase in wells GWA-41D and GWA-5BRU from the 2015 conditions. However, by year 2053, sulfate concentrations are decreasing in all four wells. Sulfate concentrations do not achieve a steady state at the well locations as concentrations in all four are decreasing in year 2265. Sulfate concentrations are initially above the 2L Standard in wells GWA-41D and GWA-9BR, but by year 2040 and 2018, respectively, concentrations in these Appendix C 20 wells are below the 2L Standard. Sulfate concentrations in well GWA-5BRU peak above the 2L Standard between years 2041 and 2069, but are below the 2L Standard from year 2070 to 2265.Sulfate concentrations in well GWA-91D no not exceed the 2L Standard under the Cap -in -Place scenario conditions. Figures 140 through 142 show the predicted sulfate concentrations under this scenario in the shallow, deep, and fractured bedrock zones in 2115, respectively. All three groundwater zones show sulfate less than the 2L Standard of 250,000 pg/L at the compliance boundary and at the Yadkin River. Figures 62 through 73 show predicted vanadium concentrations versus time at representative monitoring wells under all three model scenarios. The predicted vanadium concentration in all wells exceeds the IMAC for vanadium, which is 0.3 tag/I, in all scenarios. The concentration versus time curves show that under the Cap -in -Place scenario, vanadium concentrations increase in all wells except GWA-3S, GWA-5S, and GWA-3BRU, from the 2015 conditions. Vanadium concentrations in well GWA-5S begin to increase after year 2046, while concentrations in wells GWA-3S and GWA- 3BRU continues to decrease throughout the scenario time frame with concentrations decreasing below the IMAC standard by years 2170 and 2205, respectively. Vanadium concentrations do not achieve a steady-state in any well by year 2265. Vanadium concentrations remain above the IMAC standard for vanadium in wells GWA-4S, GWA-5S, GWA-9S, GWA-41D, GWA-91D, GWA-221D, and GWA-5BRU till 2265. By year 2051, the vanadium concentration in wells GWA-9BR, and GWA- 12BRU will exceed the IMAC standard. Vanadium concentrations in well GWA-12S no not exceed the IMAC standard under the Cap -in -Place scenario conditions. Figures 152 through 154 show the predicted vanadium concentrations under this scenario in the shallow, deep, and fractured bedrock zones in 2115, respectively. All three groundwater zones show vanadium greater than the IMAC standard of 0.3 pg/L at the compliance boundary and at the Yadkin River. Vanadium exits the model with groundwater discharging at the Yadkin River to the north and west of the active ash basin primary cell in the shallow, deep, and bedrock zones and to the north and east of the active ash basin secondary cell in all groundwater zones. The highest concentrations of vanadium leave the model north of the active ash basin primary cell. 6.3 Excavation Scenario The Excavation Scenario models simulate the effects of removing the active ash basins and ash storage areas at the beginning of this scenario. In the model, source zone concentrations at the ash basins and ash storage areas are set to zero while recharge is applied at the same rate as other surrounding areas. Groundwater flow beneath the ash basin is affected by this scenario as the basins are completely drained and the source of COls is removed. In the model, non-sorptive COls will move downgradient at the pore velocity of groundwater. Sorptive COI migration will be retarded relative to the groundwater pore velocity as they are desorbed by clean water. The model uses the predicted concentration from the 2015 calibration as the starting concentration for this model scenario. Figures 15 through 24 show predicted antimony concentrations versus time at representative monitoring wells under all three scenarios. The concentration versus time curves show that under the Excavation scenario, antimony concentrations initially increase in all remaining wells except for well GWA-3S, from the 2015 conditions. Concentrations in GWA-3S initially decrease, begin to increase in year 2028, peak in years 2119, then continue to decrease to year 2265. By year 2081, antimony concentrations in well GWA-5S begin to decrease and by year 2265 concentration in wells GWA-91D, GWA-221D, and GWA-3BRU are decreasing. Antimony concentrations in wells GWA-4S, GWA-12S, GWA-5BRU, and GWA-12BRU continue to increase throughout the scenario time frame. Appendix C 21 Antimony concentrations do not achieve a steady-state in any well. Antimony concentrations remain above the IMAC standard in wells GWA-3S, GWA-5S and GWA-5BRU till 2265. Antimony concentrations increase above the IMAC standard by year 2115 in wells GWA-41D, GWA-91D, GWA- 22D, and GWA-3BRU, and by 2265 the concentration in well GWA-4S exceeds the IMAC standard. Antimony concentrations do not exceed the IMAC standard under the Excavation scenario in wells, GWA-12S or GWA-12BRU. Figures 83 through 85 show the predicted antimony concentrations under this scenario in the shallow, deep, and fractured bedrock zones in 2115. All three groundwater zones show antimony greater than the IMAC standard of 1 pg/L at the compliance boundary and at the Yadkin River. Antimony exits the model with groundwater discharging at the Yadkin River to the north and east of the active ash basin secondary cell in all groundwater zones. The highest concentrations of antimony leave the model north of the active ash basin old primary cell. Figures 25 through 31 show predicted boron concentrations versus time at representative monitoring wells under all three model scenarios. The concentration versus time curves show that under the Excavation scenario, boron concentrations decrease in all remaining wells except for wells GWA-91D, GWA-22D, and GWA-5BRU, from the 2015 conditions. By years 2031, 2037, and 2017, boron concentrations in wells GWA-91D, GWA-22D, and GWA-5BRU, respectively, have peaked after which concentrations decrease to year 2265. Boron concentrations do not achieve a steady state as concentrations are decreasing in all wells in year 2265. Boron concentrations begin the scenario above the 2L Standard in wells GWA-5S, GWA-91D, GWA-22D, GWA-3BRU, GWA-5BRU and GWA- 9BR, but by year 2098 concentrations have decreased below the standard value in all wells. Boron concentrations in well GWA-3S do not exceed the 2L Standard under the Excavation scenario conditions. Figures 95 through 97 show the predicted boron concentrations under this scenario in the shallow, deep, and fractured bedrock zones in 2115, respectively. All three groundwater zones show boron less than the 2L Standard of 700 pg/L at the compliance boundary and at the Yadkin River. Figures 32 through 38 show predicted chromium concentrations versus time at representative monitoring wells under all three model scenarios. The concentration versus time curves show that under the Excavation scenario, chromium concentrations increase in all remaining wells from the 2015 conditions. Only in well GWA-41D do concentrations continue to rise throughout the scenario time frame. Concentrations in wells GWA-5S, GWA-5BRU, GWA-3S, and GWA-3BRU begin to decrease in years 2057, 2126, 2131 and 22160, respectively, and by year 2265 concentrations are decreasing in wells GWA-12S and GWA-12BRU. Chromium concentrations do not achieve a steady- state in any well by year 2265. Chromium concentrations remain above the 2L Standard for chromium, in wells GWA-5S and GWA-5BRU till 2265 and concentrations in all wells except for GWA-41D are above the 2L Standard by year 2083. Concentrations in well GWA-41D no not exceed the 2L Standard under the Excavation scenario conditions. Figures 107 through 109 show the predicted chromium concentrations under this scenario in the shallow, deep, and fractured bedrock zones in 2115, respectively. All three groundwater zones show chromium greater than the 2L Standard of 10 pg/L at the compliance boundary and at the Yadkin River. Chromium exits the model with groundwater discharging at the Yadkin River to the north and east of the active ash basin secondary cell in all groundwater zones. The highest concentrations of chromium leave the model north of the active ash basin old primary cell. Figures 39 through 49 show predicted cobalt concentrations versus time at representative monitoring wells under all three model scenarios. The concentration versus time curves show that under the Excavation scenario, cobalt concentrations increase in all remaining wells except for Appendix C 22 GWA-3S from the 2015 conditions. Cobalt concentrations in wells GWA-3S and GWA-9S begin to increase by years 2205 and 2026, respectively, and along with concentrations in wells GWA-4S and GWA-12S continue to increase to year 2265. After initially increasing, concentrations in wells GWA- 5S, GWA-41D, GWA-91D, and GWA-22D decrease through to year 2265 beginning in years, 2063, 2148, 2140, 2126, and 2157 respectively. After initially increasing, concentrations in well GWA- 3BRU begins to decrease in year 2032 only to start increasing again by year 2245. Cobalt concentrations do not achieve a steady-state in any well by year 2265. Cobalt concentrations remain above the IMAC standard for cobalt in wells GWA-5S, GWA-41D, GWA-91D, GWA-22D, and GWA- 5BRU till 2265. By year 2085, cobalt concentrations have increased above the IMAC standard in wells GWA-4S and GWA-9S. Cobalt concentrations in wells GWA-3S and GWA-3BRU are initially above the IMAC standard, but by 2125 and 2175, respectively, concentrations have decreased below the IMAC standard and remain below through year 2265. Cobalt concentrations in wells GWA-12S and GWA-12BRU do not exceed the IMAC standard under the Excavation scenario conditions. Figures 119 through 121 show the predicted cobalt concentrations under this scenario in the shallow, deep, and fractured bedrock zones in 2115, respectively. All three groundwater zones show cobalt greater than the IMAC standard of 1 pg/L at the compliance boundary and at the Yadkin River. Cobalt exits the model with groundwater discharging at the Yadkin River to the north of the active ash basin primary cell in the shallow and deep zones and to the north and east of the active ash basin secondary cell in all groundwater zones. The highest concentrations of cobalt leave the model north of the active ash basin old primary cell. Figures 50 through 57 show predicted hexavalent chromium concentrations versus time at representative monitoring wells under all three model scenarios. The concentration versus time curves show that under the Excavation scenario, hexavalent chromium concentrations increase in all remaining wells from the 2015 conditions, and continue to increase throughout the scenario time frame. Hexavalent chromium concentrations do not achieve a steady-state in any well as concentrations are still increasing by year 2265. Hexavalent chromium concentrations remain above DHHS standard for hexavalent chromium in wells GWA-3S, GWA-5S, GWA-41D, and GWA-5BRU till 2265. By year 2074, hexavalent chromium concentrations have increased above the DHHS standard in wells GWA-4S, GWA-91D, GWA-22D, and GWA-3BRU. Figures 131 through 133 show the predicted hexavalent chromium concentrations under this scenario in the shallow, deep, and fractured bedrock zones in 2115, respectively. All three groundwater zones show hexavalent chromium greater than the 2L Standard of 0.07 Ng/L at the compliance boundary and at the Yadkin River in year 2115. Hexavalent chromium exits the model with groundwater discharging at the Yadkin River to the north and east of the active ash basin secondary cell in all groundwater zones. The highest concentrations of hexavalent chromium leave the model northeast of the active ash basin old primary cell. Figures 58 through 61 show predicted sulfate concentrations versus time at representative monitoring wells under all three model scenarios. The concentration versus time curves show that under the Excavation scenario, sulfate concentrations increase in wells GWA-41D, GWA-91D, and GWA-5BRU from the 2015 conditions. However, by year 2033, sulfate concentrations are decreasing in all four wells. Sulfate concentrations do not achieve a steady state at the well locations as concentrations in all four are decreasing in year 2265. Sulfate concentrations are initially above the 2L Standard in wells GWA-41D and GWA-9BR, but by year 2037 and 2019, respectively, concentrations in these wells are below the 2L Standard. Sulfate concentrations in wells GWA-91D and GWA-5BRU no not exceed the 2L Standard under the Excavation scenario conditions. Figures 143 through 145 show the predicted sulfate concentrations under this scenario in the shallow, deep, Appendix C 23 and fractured bedrock zones in 2115, respectively. All three groundwater zones show sulfate less than the 2L Standard of 250,000 pg/L at the compliance boundary and at the Yadkin River. Figures 62 through 73 show predicted vanadium concentrations versus time at representative monitoring wells under all three model scenarios. The predicted vanadium concentration in all wells exceeds the IMAC for vanadium, which is 0.3 pg/l, in all scenarios. The concentration versus time curves show that under the Excavation scenario, vanadium concentrations increase in all wells except GWA-3S from the 2015 conditions. Concentrations in GWA-3S decrease throughout the scenario time frame. Conversely, concentrations in well GWA-9BR increase throughout the scenario time frame. After initially increasing, vanadium concentrations in the remaining ten wells are all decreasing by year 2175. Vanadium concentrations do not achieve a steady-state in any well by year 2265. Vanadium concentrations remain above the IMAC standard for vanadium in wells GWA- 3S, GWA-4S, GWA-5S, GWA-9S, GWA-41D, GWA-91D, GWA-22D,GWA-3BRU and GWA-5BRU till 2265. By year 2038, the vanadium concentration in wells GWA-12S, GWA-9BR, and GWA-12BRU will exceed the IMAC standard. Figures 155 through 157 show the predicted vanadium concentrations under this scenario in the shallow, deep, and fractured bedrock zones in 2115, respectively. All three groundwater zones show vanadium greater than the IMAC standard of 0.3 pg/L at the compliance boundary and at the Yadkin River. Vanadium exits the model with groundwater discharging at the Yadkin River to the north and west of the active ash basin primary cell in the shallow, deep, and bedrock zones and to the north and east of the active ash basin secondary cell in all groundwater zones. The highest concentrations of vanadium leave the model north of the active ash basin primary cell. 7 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS 7.1 Model Assumptions and Limitations The model assumptions and limitations include the following: • The steady-state flow model was calibrated to hydraulic heads measured at observation wells in July 2015 and considered the ash basin water level. The model is not calibrated to transient water levels over time, recharge or river flow. A steady-state calibration does not consider groundwater storage and does not calibrate the groundwater flux into adjacent surface water bodies. • MOFLOW simulates flow through porous media and groundwater flow in the bedrock groundwater zone is via fractures in the bedrock. A single domain MODFLOW modeling approach for simulating flow in the primary porous groundwater zones and bedrock was used for contaminant transport at the Buck site. • The model was calibrated by adjusting the constant source concentrations at the ash basins and ash storage areas to reasonably match 2015 COI concentrations in groundwater. • For the purposes of numerical modeling and comparing closure scenarios, it is assumed that the selected closure scenario will be completed in 2015. • Predictive simulations were performed and steady-state flow conditions were assumed from the time that the ash basins and ash storage area were placed in service through the current time until the end of the predictive simulations (2265). Appendix C 24 • COI source zone concentrations at the inactive and active ash basins and ash storage area were applied uniformly within each source area and assumed to be constant with respect to time for transport model calibration. • The uncertainty in model parameters and predictions has not been quantified; therefore the error in the model predictions is not known. It is assumed the model results are suitable for a relative comparison of closure scenario options. • Since the Yadkin River is modeled as a constant head boundary in the numerical model, it will not be possible to assess the affects of pumping wells or other groundwater sinks that are near the river. • The model does not account for varying geochemical conditions such as pH and redox potential that could affect COI mobility and change modeling results. Site -specific geochemistry and geochemical modeling will be considered in CAP2. 7.2 Model Predictions The model predictions are summarized as follows: For the Existing Conditions scenario, the model predicts that none of the seven simulated constituents are in steady-state with respect to transport in 2015, but that the concentration of all constituents exceed the 2L, IMAC, or DHHS standard at the compliance boundary and the concentration of all constituents exceed the 2L, IMAC, or DHHS standard at the Yadkin River boundary. By 2115, concentrations of all constituent are still increasing in the model domain and the concentrations of all constituents exceed the 2L, IMAC, or DHHS standard at the compliance boundary. Boron and sulfate concentrations reach steady-state by 2165 and 2155, respectively. • For the Cap -in -Place scenario, model predictions show that in 2115, antimony, boron, cobalt, vanadium, and chromium will exceed the 2L or IMAC standard at the compliance boundary and at the Yadkin River. Sulfate concentrations will be below the 2L Standard at the compliance boundary and at the Yadkin River. Hexavalent chromium concentrations, which did not begin the scenario in exceedance of the DHHS standard at the Yadkin River, will exceed the DHHS standard at the compliance boundary and at the Yadkin River. Overall, the concentrations of all seven constituents will exceed the 2L, IMAC, or DHHS standards within the model domain and none will reach steady-state with respect to transport for the entire modeling period from 2015-2265. • For the Excavation scenario, model predictions show that in 2115, antimony, cobalt, vanadium, and chromium will exceed the 2L or IMAC standard at the compliance boundary and at the Yadkin River. Sulfate and boron concentrations will be below the 2L Standard at the compliance boundary and at the Yadkin River. Hexavalent chromium concentrations, which did not begin the scenario in exceedance of the DHHS standard at the Yadkin River, will exceed the DHHS standard at the compliance boundary and at the Yadkin River. Overall, the concentrations of all constituents, except boron and sulfate, will exceed the 2L, IMAC, or DHHS standards within the model domain and none of the seven will reach steady-state with respect to transport for the entire modeling period from 2015-2265. Boron and sulfate concentrations within the model domain will decrease below the 2L Standard by 2135 and 2105, respectively. Appendix C 25 8 REFERENCES Daniel, C.C., III, 2001, Estimating ground -water recharge in the North Carolina Piedmont for land use planning [abs.], in 2001 Abstracts with Programs, 50th Annual Meeting, Southeastern Section, April 5-6, 2001: Raleigh, N.C., The Geological Society of America, v. 33, no. 2, p. A- 80. Haven, W.T. Introduction to the North Carolina Groundwater Recharge Map -Groundwater Circular Number 19, North Carolina Department of Environment and Natural Resources Division of Water Quality, Groundwater Section. HDR. Comprehensive Site Assessment Report, Buck Steam Station Ash Basin, August 2015. LeGrand, H. E. 2004. A Master Conceptual Model for Hydrogeological Site Characterization in the Piedmont and Mountain Region of North Carolina, A Guidance Manual, North Carolina Department of Environment and Natural Resources Division of Water Quality, Groundwater Section. Niswonger, R.G., Panday, S., and Ibaraki, M. 2011. MODFLOW-NWT, A Newton formulation for MODFLOW-2005: U.S. Geological Survey Techniques and Methods 6-A37, 44 p. Zheng, C. and Bennett, G. Applied Contaminant Transport Modeling Second Edition, Wiley Interscience, 2002. Zheng, C. and P. Wang. 1999. MT3DMS, A modular three-dimensional multi -species transport model for simulation of advection, dispersion and chemical reactions of contaminants in groundwater systems, Documentation and Users Guide, U.S. Army Engineer Research and Development Center Contract Report SERDP-99-1, Vicksburg, MS, 202 p. Appendix C 26 Tables Table 1. Description of MODFLOW and MT3DMS Input Packages Utilizedm Table 2. Hydraulic Conductivity in ModelM Table 3. Observed vs. Predicted Hydraulic Head (ft msl)M Table 4. Effective Porosity in ModelM Table 5. Transport Model Calibration ResultsM Table 6. MODPATH Advective Travel Time Results0 Table 7. Arsenic Transport Parameter Sensitivity AnalysisM. Table 8. Boron Transport Parameter Sensitivity Analysis0 Table 1. Description of MODFLOW and MT3DMS Input Packages Utilized MODFLOW Input Package Description Name (NAM) Contains the names of the input and output files used in the model simulation and controls the active model program Basic (BAS) Specifies input packages used, model discretization, number of model stress periods, initial heads and active cells Contains finite -difference grid information, including the number Discretization (DIS) and spacing of rows and columns, number of layers in the grid, top and bottom model layer elevations and number of stress periods Specified Head and Specifies a head and/or a concentration that remains constant Concentration (CHD) throughout the simulation Drain (DRN) Acts as a "drain" to remove water from the groundwater system. Simulates drainage areas within the model Recharge (RCH) Simulates areal distribution of recharge to the groundwater system Newton Solver (NWT) Contains input values and the Newton and matrix solver options Upstream Weighting (UPW) Replaces the LPF and/or BCF packages and contains the input required for internal flow calculations Flow Transfer Link File (LMT) Used by MTDMS to obtain the location, type, and flow rates of all sources and sinks simulated in the flow model MT3DMS Input Package Description Flow Transfer Link File (FTL) Reads the LMT file produced by MODFLOW Basic Transport Package (BTN) Reads the MODFLOW data used for transport simulations and contains transport options and parameters Advection (ADV) Reads and solves the selected advection term Dispersion (DSP) Reads and solves the dispersion using the explicit finite - difference formulation Source and Sink Mixing (SSM) Reads and solves the concentration change due to sink/source mixing using the explicit finite -difference formulation Chemical Reaction (RCT) Reads and solves the concentration change due to chemical reactions using the explicit finite -difference formulation Generalized Conjugate Gradient T!olve7sthe matrix equations resulting from the implicit solution of (GCG) Solver the transport equation Table 2. Hydraulic Conductivity in Model Measured Value Calibrated Model Value Range' Model Hydrostratigraphic Horizontal Horizontal Hydraulic Vertical Hydraulic Layers Unit Hydraulic Conductivity Conductivity Conductivity Conductivity (feet/day) (feet/day) feet da 1 - 3 Ash 3.45 0.341 0.341 2-4 Dike --- 0.0028 0.0028 S-1 11.366 1.1366 S-2 0.1137 0.0114 5-6 M1-Saprolite 0.72 S-3 2.557 0.2557 7 M2-Saprolite 0.35 S-4 0.0284 0.0057 S-5 0.1421 0.01421 S-6 0.1137 0.01137 8 TZ 0.98 2.842 0.5683 9 — 10 BR 0.025 0.025 0.02501 'Range = geometric mean +/- one standard deviation (see HDR Tables 11-7 to 11-11) Table 3. Observed vs. Predicted Hydraulic Head (ft msl) Well Name Model Layer Obs. Head ft msl Pred. Head ft msl Square Error S.E. ft2 AB-10D 8 662.24 657.31 24.3 AB-1 D 8 691.78 676.45 234.96 AB-213R 10 697.04 689.93 50.49 AB-2D 8 697.01 690.25 45.64 AB-2S 6 697.78 694.34 11.84 AB-2SL 7 698.05 691.99 36.74 AB-3D 8 698.1 695.99 4.45 AB-3S 6 698.4 700.07 2.79 AB-4BR 10 679.71 683.5 14.38 AB-4BRU 9 680.83 684.1 10.71 AB-4S 6 680.9 686.14 27.51 AB-4SL 7 680.01 684.89 23.78 AB-5S 6 674.35 677.57 10.37 AB-5SL 7 674.37 674.31 0 AB-6BRU 9 673.6 663.97 92.66 AB-7BRU 9 666.75 663.87 8.27 AB-7S 6 672.99 664.12 78.7 AB-7SL 7 672.88 664 78.92 AB-8D 8 672.99 669.99 8.99 AB-8S 6 672.58 671.94 0.42 AB-9BR 10 654.11 653.51 0.35 AB-9S 6 667.23 657.5 94.72 AS-1 D 8 693.17 692.13 1.09 AS-1 S 6 693.52 698.92 29.16 AS-2D 8 693.83 700.38 42.92 AS-3D 8 696.94 703.52 43.32 AS-3S 6 696.11 710.43 205.12 BG-1 D 8 701.23 696.93 18.45 BG-1 S 6 704.16 699.3 23.62 BG-2D 8 703.65 703.19 0.21 BG-2S 6 703.69 706.06 5.61 BG-3S 6 687.81 703.18 236.25 GWA-10D 8 651.23 652.48 1.57 GWA-10S 6 649.84 652.23 5.69 GWA-11 D 8 671.69 667.04 21.65 GWA-11 S 6 672.5 666.87 31.74 GWA-12BRU 9 626.67 631.49 23.28 GWA-12S 6 626.53 631.74 27.15 GWA-1 D 8 699.9 708 65.68 Table 3. Observed vs. Predicted Hydraulic Head (ft msl)(cont.) Well Name Model Layer Obs. Head ft msl Pred. Head ft msl Square Error S.E. ft2 GWA-1 S 6 698.44 708.06 92.49 GWA-22D 8 630.71 634.18 12.03 GWA-2BR 10 677.11 679.41 5.27 GWA-2BRU 9 677.99 679.35 1.86 GWA-313RU 9 626.74 633.57 46.68 GWA-3S 6 624.65 632.84 67 GWA-4D 8 638.7 629.97 76.15 GWA-4S 6 642.38 632.69 93.94 GWA-5BRU 9 630.44 627.67 7.66 GWA-5S 6 625.17 627.59 5.84 GWA-6BR 10 645.54 642.19 11.19 GWA-613RU 9 645.31 641.85 11.98 GWA-6S 6 645.13 642.94 4.8 GWA-7D 8 647.53 650.86 11.08 GWA-7S 6 647.52 650.9 11.41 GWA-8D 8 685.52 666.62 357.16 GWA-9BR 10 663.53 656.58 48.35 GWA-9D 8 664.94 656.65 68.67 GWA-9S 6 666.89 659.8 50.3 Maximum 704.16 Sum S.E. 2,627.36 ft Minimum 624.65 Avg S.E. 45.29 ft2 Max - Min 79.51 Sgrt (Avg S.E) 6.73 ft 0.08 NRMSE 8.0% Table 4. Effective Porosity in Model Model Hydrogeologic Effective Porosity Layer Unit 1 - 3 Ash Material 0.1 4-6 Dike and Ash Storage 0.1 Material 5 M1 — Saprolite 0.1 and Alluvium 6 M1 — Saprolite 0.1 and Alluvium 7 M2 - Saprolite 0.1 8 Transition Zone 0.05 9 — 10 Bedrock 0.005 Table 5. Transport Model Calibration Results COI Monitoring Well Measured Concentration (Ng/L) Predicted Concentration (Ng/L) Ash Basin Primary Cell/Ash Storage Constant Source Concentration = 18 - 40 pg/L Ash Basin Secondary Cell Constant Source Concentration = 5 - 2,000 Ng/L AB-2BR 1.3 0.0 Antimony AB-2S 22.5 22.3 AB-2SL 2.5 16.4 AB-3S 8.9 8.8 AB-4BR 5.1 0.2 AB-4SL 1.4 5.3 AB-5SL 1.9 3.4 AB-6BRU 6.3 8.4 AB-7BRU 1.8 2.9 AB-7SL 9.3 14.1 AB-8S 3.3 4.1 AB-9BR 1.6 1.4 AS-2 D 1.9 3.0 GWA-2BR 19.3 0.0 GWA-3S 2.1 1.4 GWA-71D 1.6 0.1 Ash Basin Primary Cell/Ash Storage Constant Source Concentration = 300 - 10,000 pg/L Ash Basin Secondary Cell Constant Source Concentration = 300 - 15,000 pg/L AB-1 OD 1,900 2,260 AB-1 D 1,500 1,760 AB-2S 1,800 2,180 AB-2SL 3,200 3,120 AB-3S 2,600 2,575 AB-4S 110 2,673 AB-4SL 6,200 4,975 Boron AB-5S 350 648 AB-5SL 580 831 AB-7S 510 1,021 AB-7SL 2,000 1,257 AB-8S 1,700 1,769 AB-9BR 810 1,544 AS-1 S 3,000 3,383 MW-3S 860 1,472 MW-11 D 1,300 774 Table 5. Transport Model Calibration Results (cont.) COI Monitoring Well Measured Concentration (ug/L) Predicted Concentration (Ng/L) Ash Basin Primary Cell/Ash Storage Constant Source Concentration = 3 - 28,000 pg/L Ash Basin Secondary Cell Constant Source Concentration = 5 - 6,000 pg/L AB-1 OS 44.7 47.6 AB-2S 1.8 1.7 AB-2SL 1.1 1.3 AB-3S 2.5 2.9 AB-4S 14.2 13.7 AB-4SL 2.8 11.6 AB-5SL 4.6 3.2 AB-6BRU 4.9 3.5 AB-8S 1.2 1.8 Cobalt AB-9S 29.5 24.7 AS-1 S 356.0 357.1 AS-2 D 2.4 15.4 AS-3S 20.8 23.0 BG-3S 2.9 0.1 GWA-11 S 23.5 26.9 GWA-12S 2.4 0.0 GWA-22D 1.1 1.6 GWA-3S 2.2 2.3 GWA-41D 4.4 19.8 GWA-4S 2.2 0.3 GWA-5S 1.7 51.5 GWA-6BRU 2.8 7.5 GWA-6S 5.6 3.5 GWA-7S 8.9 0.0 GWA-81D 7.7 0.6 GWA-91D 1.5 6.1 GWA-9S 71.9 0.0 MW-6S 4.0 0.0 MW-3S 18.4 27.3 MW-7D 1.7 2.1 MW-8S 2.3 0.0 MW-8D 1.7 0.0 MW-11 S 2.2 1.0 Table 5. Transport Model Calibration Results (cont.) COI Monitoring Well Measured Concentration Ng/L) Predicted Concentration (Ng/L) Sulfate Ash Basin Primary Cell/Ash Ash Basin Secondary Storage Constant Source Concentration Cell Constant Source Concentration = 100,000-1,000,000 lag/L = 100,000 - 1,800,000 lag/L AB-10D 130,000 125,660 AB-2S 203,000 136,840 AB-2SL 125,000 158,800 AB-3S 105,000 94,456 AB-4S 82,700 133,920 AB-4SL 135,000 129,330 AB-5S 69,800 101,510 AB-5SL 10,400 102,180 AB-7S 61,700 112,760 AB-7SL 77,800 119,560 AB-8S 39,400 85,933 AB-9BR 111,000 101,030 AS-1 S 703,000 710,060 GWA-12S 199,000 80,526 GWA-2BR 162,000 115,260 GWA-3BRU 121,000 104,050 GWA-5BRU 119,000 149,770 GWA-6BR 482,000 380,040 GWA-6BRU 390,000 323,880 GWA-6S 280,000 155,300 GWA-7D 102,000 175,800 GWA-81D 198,000 79,589 GWA-9BR 187,000 271,500 GWA-91D 162,000 149,290 GWA-9S 123,000 1,962 MW-10D 397,000 280,000 Vanadium Ash Basin Primary Cell/Ash Storage Constant Source Concentration = 10 - 16,000 lag/L Ash Basin Secondary Cell Constant Source Concentration = 10 - 700 Ng/L AB-1 OD 12.0 23.4 AB-1 OS 19.3 17.3 AB-2BR 28.8 2.3 AB-2S 304.0 303.0 AB-2SL 10.7 240.7 AB-31D 12.0 14.9 AB-3S 43.3 45.1 Table 5. Transport Model Calibration Results (cont.) COI Monitoring Well Measured Concentration (Ng/L) Predicted Concentration (Ng/L) AB-4BR 34.2 38.8 AB-6BRU 37.0 35.4 AB-7SL 75.7 61.6 AB-8S 72.0 71.5 AB-9BR 17.9 16.0 AB-9BRU 17.3 51.0 AB-9S 12.3 43.7 AS-31D 12.8 19.1 AS-3S 88.2 91.8 BG-3BR 10.3 0.0 GWA-10D 14.0 20.1 Vanadium (cont.) GWA-10S 25.3 29.3 GWA-11S 67.9 66.8 GWA-1 D 14.0 0.0 GWA-22D 15.7 15.7 GWA-41D 21.2 11.5 GWA-4S 10.6 0.8 GWA-6BRU 10.2 18.2 GWA-6S 37.5 7.2 GWA-7D 40.7 1.1 GWA-7S 12.4 0.2 GWA-9BR 14.2 0.0 MW-8S 10.1 0.0 MW-91D 17.2 14.9 Chromium Ash Basin Primary Cell/Ash Storage Constant Source Concentration = 5 - 3,500 Ng/L Ash Basin Secondary Cell Constant Source Concentration = 2 - 5,000 Ng/L AB-1 OD 13.7 14.4 AB-2SL 1.6 2.1 AB-4S 2.7 1.6 AB-4SL 3.2 1.3 AB-5SL 1.0 1.3 AB-6BRU 16.6 1.4 AB-7BRU 20.0 17.5 AB-7SL 2.2 93.4 AB-8S 1.5 0.9 AB-9BR 10.8 10.1 AS-31D 10.9 10.8 GWA-11 D 11.3 12.8 Table 5. Transport Model Calibration Results (cont.) COI Monitoring Well Measured Concentration N /L) Predicted Concentration (Ng/L) Chromium GWA-11 S 11.7 2.9 GWA-1 D 16.8 0.0 GWA-2BR 56.9 -0.1 GWA-6S 42.9 7.3 GWA-7S 65.4 2.1 MW-7S 10.2 11.7 Hexava lent Chromium Ash Basin Primary Cell/Ash Storage Constant Source Concentration = 20 - 27,500 Ng/L Ash Basin Secondary Cell Constant Source Concentration = 5,000 - 10,000 pg/L AB-2BR 1.3 0.0 AB-4BR 1.7 1.6 AB-7BRU 16.0 13.7 AB-9BR 1.7 4.1 GWA-1 D 15.0 0.0 GWA-1S 5.2 1.5 GWA-2BR 53.0 0.0 GWA-2BRU 2.3 1.4 GWA-6S 1.5 0.0 Table 6. MODPATH Advective Travel Time Results Groundwater Zone Monitoring Well Advective Travel Time to Model Boundary ears Shallow AB-7S 11.0 AS -IS 51.5 GWA-1 S 38.9 GWA-3S 0.4 GWA-4S 40.7 GWA-5S 23.4 GWA-6S 12.7 GWA-9S 44.2 Deep AS-2D 21.6 GWA-4D 1.5 GWA-5D 11.9 GWA-7D 7.9 GWA-8D 14.7 GWA-9D 12.3 Bedrock AB-6BRU 5.7 AB-7BRU 2.1 AB-9BR 2.9 GWA-3BRU 0.7 GWA-6BR 3.2 GWA-9BR 22.9 GWA-12BRU 1.9 Table 7. Arsenic Transport Parameter Sensitivity Analysis Well ID Observed Modeled Porosity kd ml/ ram 0.2 0.3 90 45 AB-2S 378 1389.31 1388.88 1389.31 1415.00 AB-2SL 1270 91.07 89.87 91.07 168.80 AB-3S 80.7 75.68 75.60 75.68 77.52 AB-1 D 0.25 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 AB-2D 0.33 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.03 AB-2BR 0.72 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 AB-3D 0.4 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 AB-1 OS 0.12 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 AB-10D 0.47 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 AS-1 S 5.8 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 AS-1 D 0.47 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 AS-2D 2.2 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 AS-3S 0.14 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 AS-3D 0.68 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 GWA-1 S 0.28 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 GWA-1 D 0.67 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 GWA-9S 0.14 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 GWA-9D 0.44 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 GWA-9BR 0.63 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 GWA-10S 0.18 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 GWA-10D 0.44 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 GWA-11 S 0.5 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 GWA-11 D 0.2 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 MW-7S 0.5 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 MW-7D 0.5 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 MW-9S 0.5 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 MW-9D 0.5 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Table 8. Boron Transport Parameter Sensitivity Analysis Well ID Observed Modeled Porosity 0.2 0.3 AB-1 D 1500 2090.82 1895.48 Primary cell (12045 days) AB-21D 50 38.84 35.29 AB-10S 33 82.74 65.94 AS-1 S 2800 2355.96 2201.20 AS-1 D 360 1406.54 1259.39 AS-21D 490 25.51 17.08 AS-3S 50 0.00 0.00 AS-31D 50 0.00 0.00 GWA-81D 36 348.56 250.67 GWA-9S 300 306.68 152.28 GWA-91D 240 1548.87 1280.00 GWA-10D 50 0.00 0.00 AB-9S 28 546.13 530.11 Secondary cell (21170 days) GWA-3S 60 0.11 0.09 GWA-4S 250 265.43 203.44 GWA-41D 210 500.37 452.80 GWA-5S 50 337.92 313.18 GWA-6S 50 14.65 7.32 GWA-7S 50 78.46 43.70 GWA-7D 50 98.81 63.00 MW-3S 820 444.34 417.68 MW-3D 660 559.77 551.45 MW-11S 440 367.72 347.85 MW-11 D 1300 315.05 294.40 MW-12S 50 0.00 0.00 MW-12D 50 0.00 0.00 Figures Figure 1. Conceptual Groundwater Flow Model/Model Domain(] Figure 2. Model Domain North -South Cross Section (A -A') Through Secondary Ash BasinO Figure 3. Model Domain East-West Cross Section (B-B') Through Primary and Secondary Ash BasinsM Figure 4. Numerical Model Boundary Conditions0 Figure 5. Model Recharge Areas and Contaminant Source Zones (Constant Concentration Cells)0 Figure 6. Observation Wells in Shallow Groundwater ZoneO Figure 7. Observation Wells in Deep Groundwater Zone0 Figure 8. Observation Wells in Bedrock Groundwater ZoneE Figure 9. Hydraulic Conductivity Zonation in S/M1/M2 Layers (Model Layers 5-7z Figure 10. Modeled Hydraulic Head (feet) vs. Observed Hydraulic Head (feet)m Figure 11. Hydraulic Head (feet) in M2 Saprolite Layer (Model Layer 7)0 Figure 12. Hydraulic Head (feet) in North -South Cross Section (C-C') through Primary and Secondary Ash Basins0 Figure 13. Hydraulic Head (feet) in East-West Cross Section (C-C') through Primary and Secondary Ash Basins0 Figure 14. Particle Tracking Results (see Table. 6 for Advective Travel Times)0 Figure 15. Predicted Antimony (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-3S for Model Scenarios 1-3m Figure 16. Predicted Antimony (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-4S for Model Scenarios 1-3m Figure 17. Predicted Antimony (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-5S for Model Scenarios 1-3m Figure 18. Predicted Antimony (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-12S for Model Scenarios 1-30 Figure 19. Predicted Antimony (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-4D for Model Scenarios 1-3m Figure 20. Predicted Antimony (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-9D for Model Scenarios 1-3m Figure 21. Predicted Antimony (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-22D for Model Scenarios 1-3m Figure 22. Predicted Antimony (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-3BRU for Model Scenarios 1-3m Figure 23. Predicted Antimony (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-5BRU for Model Scenarios 1-3m Figure 24. Predicted Antimony (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-12BRU for Model Scenarios 1-30 Figure 25. Predicted Boron (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-3S for Model Scenarios 1-30 Figure 26. Predicted Boron (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-5S for Model Scenarios 1-30 Figure 27. Predicted Boron (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-91D for Model Scenarios 1-30 Figure 28. Predicted Boron (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-22D for Model Scenarios 1-30 Figure 29. Predicted Boron (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-3BRU for Model Scenarios 1-K Figure 30. Predicted Boron (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-5BRU for Model Scenarios 1-K Figure 31. Predicted Boron (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-9BR for Model Scenarios 1-3m Figure 32. Predicted Chromium (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-3S for Model Scenarios 1-30 Figure 33. Predicted Chromium (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-5S for Model Scenarios 1-3m Figure 34. Predicted Chromium (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-12S for Model Scenarios 1-3m Figure 35. Predicted Chromium (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-4D for Model Scenarios 1-3m Figure 36. Predicted Chromium (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-3BRU for Model Scenarios 1-30 Figure 37. Predicted Chromium (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-5BRU for Model Scenarios 1-30 Figure 38. Predicted Chromium (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-12BRU for Model Scenarios 1-30 Figure 39. Predicted Cobalt (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-3S for Model Scenarios 1-3m Figure 40. Predicted Cobalt (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-4S for Model Scenarios 1-30 Figure 41. Predicted Cobalt (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-5S for Model Scenarios 1-3m Figure 42. Predicted Cobalt (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-9S for Model Scenarios 1-3m Figure 43. Predicted Cobalt (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-12S for Model Scenarios 1-3m Figure 44. Predicted Cobalt (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-4D for Model Scenarios 1-3] Figure 45. Predicted Cobalt (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-9D for Model Scenarios 1-30 Figure 46. Predicted Cobalt (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-22D for Model Scenarios 1-3m Figure 47. Predicted Cobalt (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-3BRU for Model Scenarios 1-30 Figure 48. Predicted Cobalt (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-5BRU for Model Scenarios 1-3m Figure 49. Predicted Cobalt (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-12BRU for Model Scenarios 1-32 Figure 50. Predicted Hexavalent Chromium (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-3S for Model Scenarios 1-3M Figure 51. Predicted Hexavalent Chromium (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-4S for Model Scenarios 1-30 Figure 52. Predicted Hexavalent Chromium (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-5S for Model Scenarios 1-3M Figure 53. Predicted Hexavalent Chromium (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-41D for Model Scenarios 1-30 Figure 54. Predicted Hexavalent Chromium (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-9D for Model Scenarios 1-30 Figure 55. Predicted Hexavalent Chromium (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-22D for Model Scenarios 1-3M Figure 56. Predicted Hexavalent Chromium (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-3BRU for Model Scenarios 1- 3M Figure 57. Predicted Hexavalent Chromium (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-5BRU for Model Scenarios 1- 3M Figure 58. Predicted Sulfate (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-41D for Model Scenarios 1-30 Figure 59. Predicted Sulfate (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-91D for Model Scenarios 1-3m Figure 60. Predicted Sulfate (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-5BRU for Model Scenarios 1-30 Figure 61. Predicted Sulfate (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-9BR for Model Scenarios 1-3m Figure 62. Predicted Vanadium (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-3S for Model Scenarios 1-3m Figure 63. Predicted Vanadium (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-4S for Model Scenarios 1-31a Figure 64. Predicted Vanadium (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-5S for Model Scenarios 1-3m Figure 65. Predicted Vanadium (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-9S for Model Scenarios 1-30 Figure 66. Predicted Vanadium (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-12S for Model Scenarios 1-3m Figure 67. Predicted Vanadium (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-41D for Model Scenarios 1-3m Figure 68. Predicted Vanadium (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-91D for Model Scenarios 1-3m Figure 69. Predicted Vanadium (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-22D for Model Scenarios 1-30 Figure 70. Predicted Vanadium (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-3BRU for Model Scenarios 1-3m Figure 71. Predicted Vanadium (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-5BRU for Model Scenarios 1-3m Figure 72. Predicted Vanadium (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-9BR for Model Scenarios 1-3m Figure 73. Predicted Vanadium (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-12BRU for Model Scenarios 1-30 Figure 74. Initial (2015) Antimony Concentrations (pg/L) in the Shallow Groundwater Zonem Figure 75. Initial (2015) Antimony Concentrations (pg/L) in the Deep Groundwater Zonem Figure 76. Initial (2015) Antimony Concentrations (pg/L) in the Bedrock Groundwater Zonem Figure 77. "Existing" Scenario 1 - 2115 Predicted Antimony (pg/L) in the Shallow Groundwater ZoneM Figure 78. "Existing" Scenario 1 - 2115 Predicted Antimony (pg/L) in the Deep Groundwater ZoneM Figure 79. "Existing" Scenario 1 - 2115 Predicted Antimony (pg/L) in the Bedrock Groundwater ZoneM Figure 80. "Cap -In -Place" Scenario 2 - 2115 Predicted Antimony (pg/L) in the Shallow Groundwater ZoneM Figure 81. "Cap -In -Place" Scenario 2 - 2115 Predicted Antimony (pg/L) in the Deep Groundwater ZoneM Figure 82. "Cap -In -Place" Scenario 2 - 2115 Predicted Antimony (pg/L) in the Bedrock Groundwater Zone[N Figure 83. "Excavate" Scenario 3 - 2115 Predicted Antimony (pg/L) in the Shallow Groundwater ZoneM Figure 84. "Excavate" Scenario 3 - 2115 Predicted Antimony (pg/L) in the Deep Groundwater ZoneM Figure 85. "Excavate" Scenario 3 - 2115 Predicted Antimony (pg/L) in the Bedrock Groundwater M ZoneM Figure 86. Initial (2015) Boron Concentrations (pg/L) in the Shallow Groundwater Zonem Figure 87. Initial (2015) Boron Concentrations (pg/L) in the Deep Groundwater Zonem Figure 88. Initial (2015) Boron Concentrations (pg/L) in the Bedrock Groundwater Zonem Figure 89. "Existing" Scenario 1 - 2115 Predicted Boron (pg/L) in the Shallow Groundwater ZoneM Figure 90. "Existing" Scenario 1 - 2115 Predicted Boron (pg/L) in the Deep Groundwater Zonem Figure 91. "Existing" Scenario 1 - 2115 Predicted Boron (pg/L) in the Bedrock Groundwater ZoneM Figure 92. "Cap -In -Place" Scenario 2 - 2115 Predicted Boron (pg/L) in the Shallow Groundwater ZoneM Figure 93. "Cap -In -Place" Scenario 2 - 2115 Predicted Boron (pg/L) in the Shallow Groundwater ZoneM Figure 94. "Cap -In -Place" Scenario 2 - 2115 Predicted Boron (pg/L) in the Bedrock Groundwater ZoneM Figure 95. "Excavate" Scenario 3 - 2115 Predicted Boron (pg/L) in the Shallow Groundwater ZoneM Figure 96. "Excavate" Scenario 3 - 2115 Predicted Boron (pg/L) in the Deep Groundwater Zonem Figure 97. "Excavate" Scenario 3 - 2115 Predicted Boron (pg/L) in the Bedrock Groundwater ZoneM Figure 98. Initial (2015) Chromium Concentrations (pg/L) in the Shallow Groundwater Zonem Figure 99. Initial (2015) Chromium Concentrations (pg/L) in the Deep Groundwater Zonem Figure 100. Initial (2015) Chromium Concentrations (pg/L) in the Bedrock Groundwater Zonem Figure 101. "Existing" Scenario 1 - 2115 Predicted Chromium (pg/L) in the Shallow Groundwater ZoneM Figure 102. "Existing" Scenario 1 - 2115 Predicted Chromium (pg/L) in the Deep Groundwater ZoneM Figure 103. "Existing" Scenario 1 - 2115 Predicted Chromium (pg/L) in the Bedrock Groundwater ZoneM Figure 104. "Cap -In -Place" Scenario 2 - 2115 Predicted Chromium (pg/L) in the Shallow Groundwater Zone Figure 105. "Cap -In -Place" Scenario 2 - 2115 Predicted Chromium (pg/L) in the Deep Groundwater ZoneM Figure 106. "Cap -In -Place" Scenario 2 - 2115 Predicted Chromium (pg/L) in the Bedrock M Groundwater ZoneM Figure 107. "Excavate" Scenario 3 - 2115 Predicted Chromium (pg/L) in the Shallow Groundwater ZoneM Figure 108. "Excavate" Scenario 3 - 2115 Predicted Chromium (pg/L) in the Deep Groundwater ZoneM Figure 109. "Excavate" Scenario 3 - 2115 Predicted Chromium (pg/L) in the Bedrock Groundwater ZoneM Figure 110. Initial (2015) Cobalt Concentrations (pg/L) in the Shallow Groundwater Zonem Figure 111. Initial (2015) Cobalt Concentrations (pg/L) in the Deep Groundwater Zonem Figure 112. Initial (2015) Cobalt Concentrations (pg/L) in the Bedrock Groundwater Zonem Figure 113. "Existing" Scenario 1 - 2115 Predicted Cobalt (pg/L) in the Shallow Groundwater ZoneM Figure 114. "Existing" Scenario 1 - 2115 Predicted Cobalt (pg/L) in the Deep Groundwater ZoneM Figure 115. "Existing" Scenario 1 - 2115 Predicted Cobalt (pg/L) in the Bedrock Groundwater ZoneM Figure 116. "Cap -In -Place" Scenario 2 - 2115 Predicted Cobalt (pg/L) in the Shallow Groundwater ZoneM Figure 117. "Cap -In -Place" Scenario 2 - 2115 Predicted Cobalt (pg/L) in the Deep Groundwater ZoneM Figure 118."Cap-In-Place" Scenario 2 - 2115 Predicted Cobalt (pg/L) in the Bedrock Groundwater ZoneM Figure 119. "Excavate" Scenario 3 - 2115 Predicted Cobalt (pg/L) in the Shallow Groundwater ZoneM Figure 120. "Excavate" Scenario 3 - 2115 Predicted Cobalt (pg/L) in the Deep Groundwater ZoneM Figure 121. "Excavate" Scenario 3 - 2115 Predicted Cobalt (pg/L) in the Bedrock Groundwater ZoneM Figure 122. Initial (2015) Hexavalent Chromium Concentrations (pg/L) in the Shallow Groundwater ZoneM Figure 123. Initial (2015) Hexavalent Chromium Concentrations (pg/L) in the Deep Groundwater ZoneM Figure 124. Initial (2015) Hexavalent Chromium Concentrations (pg/L) in the Bedrock Groundwater ZoneM Figure 125. "Existing" Scenario 1 - 2115 Predicted Hexavalent Chromium (pg/L) in the Shallow Groundwater ZoneM Figure 126. "Existing" Scenario 1 - 2115 Predicted Hexavalent Chromium (pg/L) in the Deep Groundwater Zone Figure 127. "Existing" Scenario 1 - 2115 Predicted Hexavalent Chromium (pg/L) in the Bedrock Groundwater ZoneM Figure 128. "Cap -In -Place" Scenario 2 - 2115 Predicted Hexavalent Chromium (pg/L) in the Shallow Groundwater ZonedO Figure 129. "Cap -In -Place" Scenario 2 - 2115 Predicted Hexavalent Chromium (pg/L) in the Deep Groundwater ZoneM Figure 130. "Cap -In -Place" Scenario 2 - 2115 Predicted Hexavalent Chromium (pg/L) in the Bedrock Groundwater Zone[N Figure 131. "Excavate" Scenario 3 - 2115 Predicted Hexavalent Chromium (pg/L) in the Shallow Groundwater ZoneM Figure 132. "Excavate" Scenario 3 - 2115 Predicted Hexavalent Chromium (pg/L) in the Deep Groundwater ZoneM Figure 133. "Excavate" Scenario 3 - 2115 Predicted Hexavalent Chromium (pg/L) in the Bedrock Groundwater ZoneM Figure 134. Initial (2015) Sulfate Concentrations (pg/L) in the Shallow Groundwater Zonem Figure 135. Initial (2015) Sulfate Concentrations (pg/L) in the Deep Groundwater Zonem Figure 136. Initial (2015) Sulfate Concentrations (pg/L) in the Bedrock Groundwater Zonem Figure 137. "Existing" Scenario 1 - 2115 Predicted Sulfate (pg/L) in the Shallow Groundwater ZoneM Figure 138. "Existing" Scenario 1 - 2115 Predicted Sulfate (pg/L) in the Deep Groundwater ZoneM Figure 139. "Existing" Scenario 1 - 2115 Predicted Sulfate (pg/L) in the Bedrock Groundwater ZoneM Figure 140. "Cap -In -Place" Scenario 2 - 2115 Predicted Sulfate (pg/L) in the Shallow Groundwater ZoneM Figure 141. "Cap -In -Place" Scenario 2 - 2115 Predicted Sulfate (pg/L) in the Deep Groundwater ZoneM Figure 142. "Cap -In -Place" Scenario 2 - 2115 Predicted Sulfate (pg/L) in the Bedrock Groundwater ZoneM Figure 143. "Excavate" Scenario 3 - 2115 Predicted Sulfate (pg/L) in the Shallow Groundwater ZoneM Figure 144. "Excavate" Scenario 3 - 2115 Predicted Sulfate (pg/L) in the Deep Groundwater ZoneM Figure 145. "Excavate" Scenario 3 - 2115 Predicted Sulfate (pg/L) in the Bedrock Groundwater ZoneM Figure 146. Initial (2015) Vanadium Concentrations (pg/L) in the Shallow Groundwater Zonem Figure 147. Initial (2015) Vanadium Concentrations (pg/L) in the Deep Groundwater Zonem Figure 148. Initial (2015) Vanadium Concentrations (pg/L) in the Bedrock Groundwater Zonem Figure 149. "Existing" Scenario 1 - 2115 Predicted Vanadium (pg/L) in the Shallow Groundwater M ZoneM Figure 150. "Existing" Scenario 1 - 2115 Predicted Vanadium (pg/L) in the Deep Groundwater ZoneM Figure 151. "Existing" Scenario 1 - 2115 Predicted Vanadium (pg/L) in the Bedrock Groundwater 0 ZoneM Figure 152. "Cap -In -Place" Scenario 2 - 2115 Predicted Vanadium (pg/L) in the Shallow Groundwater Zone Figure 153. "Cap -In -Place" Scenario 2 - 2115 Predicted Vanadium (pg/L) in the Deep Groundwater ZoneM Figure 154. "Cap -In -Place" Scenario 2 - 2115 Predicted Vanadium (pg/L) in the Bedrock Groundwater ZoneM Figure 155. "Excavate" Scenario 3 - 2115 Predicted Vanadium (pg/L) in the Shallow Groundwater ZoneM Figure 156. "Excavate" Scenario 3 - 2115 Predicted Vanadium (pg/L) in the Deep Groundwater ZoneM Figure 157. "Excavate" Scenario 3 - 2115 Predicted Vanadium (pg/L) in the Bedrock Groundwater ZoneM Vroundi Discus No Pi,. 0( U13%,i 101 Sc Figure 1. Conceptual Groundwater Flow Model/Model Domain A .° Figure 2. Model Domain North -South Cross Section (A -A') Through Secondary Ash BasinO Figure 3. Model Domain East-West Cross Section (B-B') Through Primary and Secondary Ash Basins Figure 4. Numerical Model Boundary Conditions ACTIVE _ `\ .ASH BASIN Q =. L•�OLD PRIMARY ACTIVE.. 'CELL ASH BASIN I SECONDARY E%f 'G0ri tart. CELL Centratlon SOU rcC, r co�� harge =�6 irtJ;yr lll t' # ACTIVE -� ASH BASIN PRIMARY CELL Recharge = 6 inlyr yti. Constant ASH I Concentration s-rORAGE t $r�ll1'CP �a • R { L ' i Recharge = 5 inlyear n MODE L G`bU hDA R Y Q 500 1.000 Feet lo ' �*` • a 1jr a Gsrn a apping, r I. �4 IG� {any' f rpfg �. cr rtorytaieih Figure 5. Model Recharge Areas and Contaminant Source Zones (Constant Concentration Cells) Figure 6. Observation Wells in Shallow Groundwater Zone Figure 7. Observation Wells in Deep Groundwater Zone Figure 8. Observation Wells in Bedrock Groundwater Zone . Ntsz rX ? Figure 9. Hydraulic Conductivity Zonation in S/M1/M2 Layers (Model Layers 5-7 710 700 WEI I O m N c 670 v 0660 650 AI 30 Observed head, ft Figure 10. Modeled Hydraulic Head (feet) vs. Observed Hydraulic Head (feet) ' � gr ACTIVE ASH BASIN ACTIVE OLD PRIMARY CELL ASH BASIN SECONDARY pp�NpPY CELL �P 4 r rAy ACTIVE ASH BASIN PRIMARY CELL ASH ` STORAGE 1 r - y I I r r r r FACDEL BOUNDA Y r j ui e. Csr11 1 �< y Z .;tiN -3P 2111 1,-,7 9. IV, Fwirb• Figure 11. Hydraulic Head (feet) in M2 Saprolite Layer (Model Layer 7) N A 0 500 1_000 Feet Figure 12. Hydraulic Head (feet) in North -South Cross Section (C-C') through Primary and Secondary Ash Basins M A a Figure 13. Hydraulic Head (feet) in East-West Cross Section (C-C') through Primary and Secondary Ash Basins Figure 14. Particle Tracking Results (see Table. 6 for Advective Travel Times) Predicted Antimony at GWA-3S Scenario 1 - Existing Condition Scenario 2 - Cap -in -Place 7 ...,., ,.,.,. ,.,.. Scenario 3-Excavation 1MAC/2L Standard — — Be............... ................ .................... :........:........... ............... :...................:........:........ 5 7, q .......... ......... ......... ......... .......,....... ,,.. ,.........,:,...... ....., ...... ..... ..... ...... ....... 3 ......................................................................................................... .......r......... ..... 2-I...................................... e........................ ................ I ............... I............... Ln u-) to u') Ln Ln +n Ln an 4n Ln sn Ur, Ln u) cO 06 o N rS to CO O N 7 n Go o N It LO G� M Q O O G O N N C+] N r N N N CV N N N N N N N {V N N Figure 15. Predicted Antimony (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-3S for Model Scenarios 1-3 E4 1.8 1.6 1.4 1w, 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 Predicted Antimony at GWA-4S U') U7 u] 0 Ln In Ln U7 Ln U7 U7 u7 LO LO Ln LO i0 M C3 N IT CD 00 CO C7 N "C (0 65 m Q C) CD P Q Cv N N N r T N CV N N N N N RI CV N CV N CQ N Figure 16. Predicted Antimony (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-4S for Model Scenarios 1-3 Predicted Antimony at GWA-5S 40 35 -{........................................... 30 �................ I . . I .-, ................... I I . I I — I I . I . Scenario 1 - Existing Condition Scenario 2 - Cap -in -Place Scenario 3 - Excavation IMAG/2L Standard 25 ....... .. ..................... ....... ........ .............. ...................... .......... 0 20 ..................... .. .................. ....... ............. ...... ........ ...... < 15 .................... ........ ...................... .... ....... ....... .................... ....... .......... 10 i I - .- I I .... I - .......... Yp- ........ .......I . i . I . I ... : ... I ... I ........... . I . I .................. I . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . / .................... ............................ .............. ....... ....... ....... ...... I .......... LO LO LO LO LO LO LO LO LO LO LO LO Li LO LO LO (D 00 C3 CM iD 00 0 C11 (0 cc 0 C\I w 0 C) C) 0 N N ;n C\j N N N N N N N N CN N N N C%d 04 Figure 17. Predicted Antimony (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-5S for Model Scenarios 1-3 1.6 1.4 1.2 1 a p 0.8 E d 0.6 0.4 ME, 0 Predicted Antimony at GWA-12S U', u') u') en un In In Ln an LO un un un ifl OC7 Q N IT (O CO Q N cS (4 Q N "C CO 6'� @ O Q Q Q Q CV N N N r T N N N N N N N RI N N CV N CQ N Figure 18. Predicted Antimony (Ng/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-12S for Model Scenarios 1-3 Predicted Antimony at GWA-41D ..............................,. ...,,.,..,......,.. ..... .. ..... ..... " ...... : ...... : ...... : . s,........ ...... ...... ..,,. ...,, ..... ......................... s -1 ...: ........: .... . 2 -I ....., 0 ui LO I un O 4 N T. U') Ln CIj rp O O N N un f57 G N T +n Ln CO O 4 N N Lry 4fi �fi Ln U'7 CV 7 fO Go O N N N N N Figure 19. Predicted Antimony (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-413 for Model Scenarios 1-3 U ] U-) Lai C\jN tt N N N N N N N 12 r 8 a O 6 E 4 0 Predicted Antimony at GWA-91D u7 u') Ur, Ln Ln 4n u7 Ln 4n Ln Ln u) 1n u� u) CO rx3 O {v tt CO CO o N eC (n aO o N 'c1' CO O� i35 Q p q G o N N N N r r N N N N N N N N N N N N N N Figure 20. Predicted Antimony (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-913 for Model Scenarios 1-3 Predicted Antimony at GWA-22D Ln in UI) LO Ln un +n Ln an 4n U', Lr) an Un LO U) CO 03 o N rS CO CO I CV 'c7 CO Go CD N 7 (O G� <i) Q p C7 G Q N N C+j N r N N N CV N CV N N N N N N N N Figure 21. Predicted Antimony (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-22D for Model Scenarios 1-3 Predicted Antimony at GWA-3BRU 7 -1 . ...... .- 6 -1 ..........................................I.......... ................................................ 5 4 ...... ....... .,... . ,.... ....,.. _ .,,., E ... ... .. ... .. ........................... 2 = .—..................................... ..I ....... ,.... ...:........... I ................................ I 0 Ln cn G� u� U') u') Ln un +n Ln Ln 4n U', Ln +n u') Ln U) CO o C'Ij rp to CO O N 'C fn tO o N It rO <i) Q O O G O N N C+] N N N N CV N N N (M N CV N N N N Figure 22. Predicted Antimony (fag/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-313RU for Model Scenarios 1-3 45 40 35 30 25 0 E 20 d 15 10 5 0 Predicted Antimony at GWA-5BRU u-j u") U') n) Ln Ln u) u5 Ln Ln Ln uz +n Xn u') un CO 00 O N tr CO CO N 'R [0 00 CDN �t CO CD CDq CD CD N N N N r r N N N N N N N N N N N N N N Figure 23. Predicted Antimony (fag/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-513RU for Model Scenarios 1-3 Predicted Antimony at GWA-12BRU 1.2 d - 0.8 a 0 E 0.6 d 0.4 � 0.2 -1 .... ... M C7 N C• CD CO Q N cS cc CO CD N 7 [O 0 Q Q P 0 CV N N N T N N N N N N ftf RI CV N N N N N Figure 24. Predicted Antimony (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-12BRU for Model Scenarios 1-3 Predicted Boron at GWA-3S 800 700 _ . _ - - - - - 600 .................. ......... ....... ....... -� 500 .... .......... ....... ............ ...: p 400 . ........... ..'.......:........:....... a m 300...... ........ ......... ...:.... ..:......... ............ .:......... . 200 :........:..... .. .. 100 ....... ............... .:.. ....:. ....:........ ..............:........ 0 Q m CD04 coo OD CCv Q r T N N N N CV N CV N ftf RI CO O N 7 CO CV N N N N CV N N CV Figure 25. Predicted Boron (Pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-3S for Model Scenarios 1-3 3000 2500 2000 c 1500 0 m 1000 50❑ C Predicted Boron at GWA-5S U') Ln u') +n U� Ur, Ln Ln Ln u7 to in Ln Ln Ln CO 00 O N IT [O CO C7 N '7 fO m O N CO 67 9) o Q Q Q Q fV CV N N T r N N N N N N N N N N N N N N Figure 26. Predicted Boron (Pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-5S for Model Scenarios 1-3 2000 A Predicted Boron at GWA-91D Scenario 1 - Existing Condition Scenario 2 - Cap -in -Place Scenario 3 - Excavation NAC/2L Standard — — LrI Lr, u') +n Ln 4n Ln Ln n to Ur cn Lr, u) CO 00 O N ei [n CO O CV '7 CO m <D ,N IT [O 67 Q O Q CDQ fV N N N T r N N N N N N N N N CV SV N N N Figure 27. Predicted Boron (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-913 for Model Scenarios 1-3 Predicted Boron at GWA-22D 1400 . , . , . Scenario 1 - Existing Condition Scenario 2 - Cap -in -Place Scenario 3 - Excavation NAC/2L Standard — — 1200 ..... : .............. 1000 �` . 800 o- - - - - - - - - - - --- 0 M 600 400 .. .............................. , 200 0 1 1 -.. �. ._ Ln LC] Ln Ln Ln Ln Ln U') 0 0 0 In 0 Ui LS] Lr) CD 00 CD I LO CO Q C� _ CD co CD 67 m CDO Q CD O CV N N N T r N N N N CV N N N N N N N N N Figure 28. Predicted Boron (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-22D for Model Scenarios 1-3 Predicted Boron at GWA-3BRU Scenario 1 - Existing Condition 800 Scenario 2 - Cap -in -Place Scenario 3 - Excavation [MAC/2L Standard — — 700 — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — 600.....:.......:.......:.......:.......".......:......... ...............:.......:. ......:..... . 03 500:........ ....... :........ ........ .......... a 400 :.......... ......:....... :........:.......... Cfl 300 1 ....I; ......: ........ \...... :..... X.:......................................... .. ._. .. 200 1 r ......... ..........\—............ \........................... 100 �.. I .............. I-......1..... .,I,.`.... .... ..11-1........ .. ...... 3-W�� lD OD Q N t'C CD CO Q N cS (D CO Q N 7 [O U? o Q Q Q Q CV N N N r N N N N N N N RI CV Ti CV N N N Figure 29. Predicted Boron (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-3BRU for Model Scenarios 1-3 c 0 Predicted Boron at GWA-5BRU 5000 4000 3000 2000 0 T Ln sn Ln Ln Ln 4n Ln Ln 0 CO Q N V [n CO O 0) O Q Q Q o Q r N N N N N N Scenario 1 - Existing Condition Scenario 2 - Cap -in -Place Scenario 3 - Excavation IMAC/2L Standard — — Ln Ln CU '7 CO m Q N tc CV N N N N N N N N N N N Figure 30. Predicted Boron (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-5BRU for Model Scenarios 1-3 Predicted Boron at GWA-9BR Scenario 1 - Existing Condition 4000 Scenario 2 - Cap -in -Place . ............ Scenario 3 - Excavation NAC/2L Standard 3500 ........... ............. ..... /........... ......... ....... .............................................................. 3000 1 1 , ...... I , ....... I .... I - - I ....... - - - I ................................. I ....... I ...... I .............. I I - 03 2500 . ............ . . ..... ... ....... ....... ........................ ........ ................. ............................... 2000 . ............ ....... ....... ....... ................ ........ ........ ........ ....... ................ m A: 1500 -1 T A ....... ............ .................. .................................. 1000 -1 ........... : ...... I ............. \.: ... — N........................... ........ ............ .............. .............. — 500 T .......... ........ LO Ln �n Ln Ln U'j Kn LO LO U') U') In Lr) U-) Ln Ln (D CO CD IN a aes e0 0 CD 03 <D �T to m CD Q Q CV CIA N NN N N N N 7q N N N N (Ij 0i N N Figure 31. Predicted Boron (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-9BR for Model Scenarios 1-3 100 80 �7 60 E _Z E Q C) 40 20 0 Predicted Chromium at GWA-3S Ln Lr) u') Ln Ln 0 L U') u) U') Ln to Ln Ln Ln Ln in M Q LV C CD 00 Q N cS (4 CO CD 7 [O Q CD Q Q CV RI N CV r T N N N Ci N N N N CV N C.1 N N N Figure 32. Predicted Chromium (Pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-3S for Model Scenarios 1-3 1200 1000 �7 800 E __5 E 600 Q 0 400 200 C Predicted Chromium at GWA-5S Ln in Ln Ln Ln U') Ln Urr u') an u') Ln sn u O Ln It) 0 00 O N rl' (n CO O CU '7 (O tr] <D N �T CO 14 GI 0) Q P Q C7 C7 fV N N N r N N N N N N N N N N N N CV N Figure 33. Predicted Chromium (Pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-5S for Model Scenarios 1-3 200 150 E 100 E 0 50 0 Predicted Chromium at GWA-12S Ln Ln u') 0 Ln In Ln U') Ln U') Ln un Ln a) Ln uz ifl OC7 Q N IT CD 00 Q N cS (4 CO ID "C Cf7 6) CD O Q CD CV N N N r T N N N N N N N RI CV N N N N N Figure 34. Predicted Chromium (lag/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-12S for Model Scenarios 1-3 12 E 8 �7 E 6 E Q 0 4 2 0 Predicted Chromium at GWA-41D U') u5 ;n In Ln Ln 4n u') Ln 4n u') un u') Lr) u� u) [P 00 o N ZY cn CO o N eC (t7 a0 4 N et rn O� tr C CD CD CD CD N N N N r r N N N N N N N N N N N N N N Figure 35. Predicted Chromium (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-413 for Model Scenarios 1-3 90 80 70 60 �7 E 50 E Q s 40 0 30 20 10 0 Predicted Chromium at GWA-3BRU Un u') tn U'j LO U') to to sn >n n X) LO Ln Ln us [D OD 0 N a fD CO 0 N v (D CO 0 N v [D CS) !P 0 0 0 C:> 0 N N N N r N N N N N N N N N N N N N N Figure 36. Predicted Chromium (Ng/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-3BRU for Model Scenarios 1-3 1200 1000 p7 80❑ E _Z5 E 600 0 400 200 0 Predicted Chromium at GWA-5BRU La U7 U] Ln Ui U7 U7 U7 U7 U7 0 U7 U7 U7 U] U7 0 00 o N R (O 07 O CU '7 (.O trQ O N IT LO W 9) Q P Q O Q fV N CV N r r N N N N N N N N N N N N N N Figure 37. Predicted Chromium (fag/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-5BRU for Model Scenarios 1-3 180 160 140 120 �7 E 100 _Z5 E Q �z 80 0 60 40 20 0 Predicted Chromium at GWA-12BRU to un �n 0 Sn in to u Ln r uI +n 4n Ln Ln u) iD M C7 CV CT 2 Ob +D N (D CO O N ! [p CA C? Q 0 0 0 N N N N T N N N N N N N RI N N CV N CQ N Figure 38. Predicted Chromium (Pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-12BRU for Model Scenarios 1-3 c 4 0 Predicted Cobalt at GWA-3S - Scenario 1 - Existing Condition Scenario 2 - Cap-in-Place .........:........:...,.,...........:,......:.,.....:................:.....,..'... Scenario 3 Excavation NAC/2L Standard — — u-) u') u') Ln Uri +n u3 T) Ln Lr, u') +n cn u) C6 CDCq 'S fn a] O N 'C fO [(7 O N 17 [O 0 Q C] CD G 4 N N C+j N T r N N N CV N N N N N t'.1 N CJ N N Figure 39. Predicted Cobalt (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-3S for Model Scenarios 1-3 0 25 20 IL 5 0 u-j u'S u') CO m CD6 it C r r N Predicted Cobalt at GWA-45 Scenario 1 - Existing Condition Scenario 2 - Cap -in -Place Scenario 3 - Excavation NAC/2L Standard — — :... ..:.............. Tn Ln Ln u') qn Ln Ln N R CA 07 N eC [L7 00 4 N 4` [O CD CD CD o N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N Figure 40. Predicted Cobalt (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-4S for Model Scenarios 1-3 Predicted Cobalt at GWA-5$ 160 -I 140 -1 . ....................................... 120 Scenario 1 - Existing Condition Scenario 2 - Cap -in -Place Scenario 3 - Excavation [MAC/2L Standard — — 100 80 ...... 40 _ .,. ...... .... ....... ............ .............. 20 . ...... ...... . ...... . ...... ...... ........ ,........................... ....,. ...... 0 ifl O'] O N tT CD 00 CO O N !I, LQ 0 Q 0 O Q CV N N N r T N N N N N N N RI CV N CV N N N Figure 41. Predicted Cobalt (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-5S for Model Scenarios 1-3 45 40 35 c,C 25 c[i U 20 Predicted Cobalt at GWA-9S n u') u') Un in U') un in en sn us sn Ln Ln Ln u') [D Co O CV (F Cp O N V (D O N (L3 CS7 W O O 4 4 C7 N N N N r N N N N N N N N N N N N N N Figure 42. Predicted Cobalt (Ng/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-9S for Model Scenarios 1-3 4 3.5 3 2.5 c 2 0 I 0.5 0 Predicted Cobalt at GWA-12S Ur; U') U') en un u') on U') u') Ln an un u) un U) iO OD C] N IT (D CO N cS (O CO 0 N !I, [O C Q O P C? CA N N N r T N N N N hl N N RI CV N N N N N Figure 43. Predicted Cobalt (Pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-12S for Model Scenarios 1-3 100 80 60 ca 40 20 0 Predicted Cobalt at GWA-4D in Lr) Ln Ln Ln Ln Ln u Ln u') uI Ln u') Ln Ln Ln lD m O CV t'C CO 00 +D N cS (D CO O N 7 CO C? O 9 P O CV N N N r T N N [N N N N N RI N N N N N N Figure 44. Predicted Cobalt (fag/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-4D for Model Scenarios 1-3 700 600 500 400 t� 300 200 100 0 Predicted Cobalt at GWA-9D U', u U') in Ln In Ln U') u') U') U1 un u') un U) It) to m C] N S4 (O 00 O N cS (D CO Q N 7 CO 6? C Cy Q Q Q CV N N N r T N N N N N N ftf RI N N N N N N Figure 45. Predicted Cobalt (fag/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-913 for Model Scenarios 1-3 Predicted Cobalt at GWA-22D Scenario 1 - Existing Condition Scenario 2 - Cap -in -Place Scenario 3 - Excavation 250 IMAC/2L Standard 200 .................................................................. ......... : . .... .. : ............................................ 150 ....... ................... .............. -0 C) 100 ....... 50 ............. ....... ............. ...... .... ........ ........ 0 --- - - - - - - - - - -1 - - - - �- - ----F - - --r- - --+ U-) LO Ln Lr) LrI tn U') Lr) U') �n ifl co CD CD 00 CD (D CD <�� Q (2 00 C) CO CV N N N N Oj N CV N N N RI Cm N Cm N N N Figure 46. Predicted Cobalt (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-22D for Model Scenarios 1-3 Predicted Cobalt at GWA-3BRU - - Scenario 1 - Existing Condition Scenario 2 - Cap -in -Place : Scenario 3 - Excavation .......................... IMAC/2L Standard — — 5 :........ ....... .......... :........ :,,,. :.......:.. :.,.,,,.... 4 © 3.........:..........................:..............:........:................. . 0 - - 2 -d—..........:................. Z......:.......:....... .......: 0—r— Ln to U') Ln Ln Ln +n sn U-) Ln Ln Lr, u') to Ln u) [O CO O Cq 'S to CO O N 'C fO Lf7 O N 17 [O G� a) Q O O C O N N C+] N r N N N CV N N N (m N CV N {V N N Figure 47. Predicted Cobalt (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-313RU for Model Scenarios 1-3 Predicted Cobalt at GWA-5BRU 180 - 160 - Scenario 1 - Existing Condition Scenario 2 - Cap -in -Place Scenario 3 - Excavation [MAC12L Standard — — 2.5 2 -1 1.5 .........:.....,,:,., 0.5 1 0 Predicted Cobalt at GWA-12BRU u5 U') u; en un u') Ln u) Ln un u') un Ln un ifl OD Q N IT (D CO Q N cS (4 CO Q N !I, [O 65 07 CD ID Q Q CV N N N r T N N N N N N N CV CV CV N N N Figure 49. Predicted Cobalt (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-12BRU for Model Scenarios 1-3 100 80 A E 60 E 0 L V x 40 a] 20 0 Predicted HexChromium at GWA-3S Ur, Lr) U') Ln ur) on to U') u') Ur, uI u') u') Ln Ln Lr ifl M C] N t4' (D CO O N (D CO O N 7 [O 6'� m p Q q 0 0 Cv N N N r T N N N N N N N RI N N N N N N Figure 50. Predicted Hexavalent Chromium (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-3S for Model Scenarios 1-3 14 12 4 2 R Predicted HexChrornium at GWA-4S Tn u') in in Tj u) u') in U', an Tn un Lrn Lr) uO U� CO 00 C] N �T co 0) C7 N '7 CO OD O N IT cD 0 Q CD O O N N N N r N N Cal N N N N N N N N N N N Figure 51. Predicted Hexavalent Chromium (lag/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-4S for Model Scenarios 1-3 1400 - 1200 1000 - A I E 800 0 L x 600 - a] 400 - 200 - 0 Predicted HexChromium at GWA-5S Ln Ln � � to Ln � Ln � Ln er) LnLr) 00 o IN N CO Q �_ � o � CO O> 9) Q O U C7 CDiV N N N T r N N N N N N N N N N N N N N Figure 52. Predicted Hexavalent Chromium (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-5S for Model Scenarios 1-3 250 200 A I E 150 0 L V x a) = 1v0 50 0 Predicted HexChromium at GWA-4D u5 Ln r Ln Ln L.n LO U') Ln Vr, u u') Ln Ln Ln u� ifl M Q N C CO CC] Q CO Q N !I, [O Q Q Q Q Q CV N N N r T N CV [N 01i N N ftf RI CV N Ili N N N Figure 53. Predicted Hexavalent Chromium (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-413 for Model Scenarios 1-3 50 40 I E 30 0 L V x a) = 20 0 Li) Li) U') CO CD O 6 (r C r r N Ln N O N Predicted HexChromum at GWA-9❑ Ln Ln U7 U7 LC) U7 Ln Ln U") Liz LT) Li) tr LO 00 O N 'R [t7 w o N 'IT c0 0 0 o N N N c N N N N N N N N N N N N Figure 54. Predicted Hexavalent Chromium (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-913 for Model Scenarios 1-3 300 250 200 E E 0 150 x aw am 100 50 0 Predicted HexChromium at GWA-22D u� U') U') va in un isi u3 u'i u') LO un LO u) u1 X- (D co 0 N 10 CC, 0 N [D W C3) C7 © O O 0 N N N N r r N N N N N N N N N N N N N N Figure 55. Predicted Hexavalent Chromium (Ng/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-22D for Model Scenarios 1-3 50 40 A F 30 0 L V x Ta) 1 20 LL: 0 Predicted HexChromium at GWA-3BRU U17 U'7 U') Li] Ln Ln 4:] Uf U') U') Ln Lr] L{7 Lr) LTi 47 CO O N R CO CO p N IT [L7 OO O N If CO 6) [r Cl O q G CD N N N N r r N N N N N N N N N N N N N N Figure 56. Predicted Hexavalent Chromium (lag/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-3BRU for Model Scenarios 1-3 600 500 - 400 E EE 300 L r� V x I 200 Mien Predicted HexChromium at GWA-5BRU i u'r Ln ur) Un u'a Lr, u') Ln U') uO IS) to O4 C] N fQ R7 Q CV 'r 'L7 CO C (N � [P [E3 CTr 0 O O O © CV N N N r r N N N N N i`J N N N N N N N N Figure 57. Predicted Hexavalent Chromium (Ng/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-513RU for Model Scenarios 1-3 300000 250000 200000 w 150000 2z 73 CO 100000 50000 0 Predicted Sulfate at GWA-41) m C C C C C r N N N CV CV N N Ln Ln Ln Ln �t iO CO C N 7 [O N N N N N N h3 CV N N N Figure 58. Predicted Sulfate (Ng/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-413 for Model Scenarios 1-3 250000 200000 150000 i� CO 100000 50000 0 Predicted Sulfate at GWA-91) U'T Ln U-) Ln L4) 0 Ln U) LS7 Ln Ln [n Ln LO Ln U) (0 03 O N R (D 00 O N 12 C] N 7 [0 P7 CT? C3 C7 C? a CDN N N N r N N N CV CV N N N N CV CV N N N Figure 59. Predicted Sulfate (Ng/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-913 for Model Scenarios 1-3 Predicted Sulfate at GWA-5BRU Scenario 1 - Existing Condition Scenario 2 - Cap -in -Place Scenario 3 - Excavation 250000.— — — — — — — — — — — — IMACI2L Standard — — 200000 �..................:.......:I..N.........F.......:....... I .....:........:........:.......;. r 150000 cu - CO iDOflDO:......,;........:........:.......: ........................;....".......:........................ 50000 -1 ....I ... ........ ............................_..........N,................................ 0 I .. �-- uT u') un Ln u') Ln U') u') u') Ln Ln rn U') uO uO u) (D 00 O N R (D 00 O N R (O 00 O N 7 [O p7 m a O CD C N N N N r N N N CV CV N N N N N CV N N N Figure 60. Predicted Sulfate (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-5BRU for Model Scenarios 1-3 450000 400000 350000 300000 i 250000 d] c[3 200000 J 150000 100000 50000 0 Predicted Sulfate at GWA-9BR (0 trJ O N R ED 00 O N O N 7 U] 9) CT, C3 Q C? 0 C N N N N r N N N CV CV N CL N N N CV N N N Figure 61. Predicted Sulfate (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-9BR for Model Scenarios 1-3 s E 6 0 tea 4 0 Predicted Vanadium at GWA-3S If! u") u') Ln Ln Ln 4n u') Ln 4n u') Ln u') 1n In u) rd7 00 o N tr cn CO 0 N 'R [n 00 O N rn tr C O q O CD N N N N r r N N N N N N N N N N N N N N Figure 62. Predicted Vanadium (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-3S for Model Scenarios 1-3 12 8 E 8 0 tea 4 2 0 Predicted Vanadium at GWA-4S Ln u') u') u) In Ln U') U') U') 4n Ln Ln u') Xn In un ca m o N tr CO CO a N er n 00 o N IT CO rn rn Q o q a o N N N N r r N N N N N N N N N N N N N N Figure 63. Predicted Vanadium (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-4S for Model Scenarios 1-3 20 ^ 15 E 0 10 5 0 Predicted Vanadium at GWA-5S to rn u') Ln Ln Ln Ln in In Ln Ln Ln Ln Lr, lx� Ln Cp 00 O N er cn CO 0 N '4' (n 00 O N et CO O1 4s C O q CD CD N N N N e— N N N N N N N N N N N N N N Figure 64. Predicted Vanadium (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-5S for Model Scenarios 1-3 Soo 400 0) 3©❑ E c1 c a1 > 200 1TI 0 Predicted Vanadium at GWA-9S Scenario 1 Existing Condition Scenario 2 - Cap -in -Place Scenario 3 - Excavation IMAC/2L Standard — — w 03 0 CQ R i0 w C7 C7 N 2 6> 6� 0 0 O 0 4 N N N N r r N N N N N N N N N N N N N N Figure 65. Predicted Vanadium (Ng/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-9S for Model Scenarios 1-3 Predicted Vanadium at GWA-12S 5 ........ ...... Scenario 1 - Existing Condition Scenario 2 - Cap -in -Place Scenario 3 - Excavation NAC/2L Standard 4 ...................................... ........... .......................................... ........... 3 .............. ............ ............ ....... .................. ........... ....... ........ F CU2 ................................................. ........... ......... ....................... ....... ......................... > 0 ...................... ..................... ....... .... ....... I ......................... ....... .. Ln U') U') U') Ln U') U') U') U') U') Lf') LO U') U') Ln LI) CO CO CD CV rp (D CO C2, �O CD It a) C� CD Q CQ N N C\j N N N N N N N N (%] CV N N N N Figure 66. Predicted Vanadium (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-12S for Model Scenarios 1-3 40 35 30 25 E 0 20 oz 15 IM M 0 Predicted Vanadium at GWA-4D Scenario 1 - Existing Condition Scenario 2 - Cap -in -Place Scenario 3 - Excavation IMAC/2L Standard - - -4. ....:.......... .... si i'.....•........•........................................I.......... l...................,..,.,..4- : to Ln in Ln Un U') u') Ln U') U') U') ui Ln Ln V� Lrr m aQ a N v cp CO o_ N v (0 o0 o N �r cD 0 B) Q Q Q Q O N N N N +- N N. N N N N N N N N N N N N Figure 67. Predicted Vanadium (Ng/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-413 for Model Scenarios 1-3 3500 3000 2500 2000 E 0 C[3 CZ 1500 1000 500 0 Predicted Vanadium at GWA-9D Scenario 1 - Existing Condition Scenario 2 - Cap -in -Place Scenario 3 - Excavation ]MAC/2L Standard — — U) U') Ln Ui U] U) U') U) N U) U) U') LO LO L{7 lt7 0 Lt] O M a (0 OD 0 M (D av 0 M It (L) ff+ 01 O CJ :7 C) 0 SV M N N r N N N N N N N N N N N N N N Figure 68. Predicted Vanadium (Ng/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-913 for Model Scenarios 1-3 300 250 200 E 150 tea 100 50 0 Predicted Vanadium at GWA-22D u') u u') Ln Ln Ln U) u Ln r u u') Ln Ln Ln u� ifl 0p q CV C CO 00 O N �S C[) CO CDN 7 (f7 05 6? q q CD q q CV N N N r T N N N N N N N RI CV Ti I�j N CQ N Figure 69. Predicted Vanadium (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-22D for Model Scenarios 1-3 Predicted Vanadium at GWA-3BRU 12 -1 ... 10 - - 8 E a 0 tea 4 —1 ../...... .X....... N .. ......................:.......I...... ........ ,... Scenario 1 - Existing Condition Scenario 2 - Cap -in -Place Scenario 3 - Excavation IMAC/2L Standard — — 2 -1. - ... /... . ...,I . . ...... . .......N,; ,.... _ ......,�`... _ ..... - ...., _ ..... _ ...., _ ..... - ...... . If! LIs in Ln U] Lis Ln Ln Lr) Ln U') Ln Lis Ln Ln Ln rd7 00 o N tr CO CO o N '4' Cn ao o N 'If iD tQ CD C7 C7 P N N N N r r N N N N N N N N N N N N N N Figure 70. Predicted Vanadium (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-3BRU for Model Scenarios 1-3 40 35 30 3a 25 E 0 20 C tea 15 10 5 0 Predicted Vanadium at GWA-5BRU Scenario 1 - Existing Condition Scenario 2 - Cap -in -Place Scenario 3 - Excavation [MAC/2L Standard — — u') u') Ur, Ur, Ln Ln u') U') 4n ua u') u') u') u) co 00 O N R cn CO N 4 n w o N c1 SO 4 CD C7 C7 P N N N N r r N N N N N N N N N N N N N N Figure 71. Predicted Vanadium (pg/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-5BRU for Model Scenarios 1-3 Predicted Vanadium at GWA-9BR 90 so 70 C 60 E 50 i 40 30 10 o- - - — , . . u') U') Ln sn Ln in u7 Ln Ln un Ln T) O N d' 0 OD o N Tt LO a0 0 65 N N © 4 CV fV N fL N N Figure 72. Predicted Vanadium (lag/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-9BR for Model Scenarios 1-3 Ln Ln N et N N N Predicted Vanadium at GWA-12BRU 5 ...., .. . . 4.......................................... I ....... I ................................. E 3 0 as 2 ,.,,.....,..,. ....I ......................... t-I............................................. I J U7 U7 u7 Ln w CO o [y 1 65 Q O r N N T Ln In rp cn O G N CV U') Ln Lr) 4n un Lr) +n u') LO u) CO O N [a CDN It[O 4 N N Cj N CV N N N N CV N CJ N N Figure 73. Predicted Vanadium (lag/L) in Monitoring Well GWA-12BRU for Model Scenarios 1-3 Figure 74. Initial (2015) Antimony Concentrations (fag/L) in the Shallow Groundwater Zone Figure 75. Initial (2015) Antimony Concentrations (Ng/L) in the Deep Groundwater Zone Figure 76. Initial (2015) Antimony Concentrations (Ng/L) in the Bedrock Groundwater Zone 1500 500 160 40 10 3 � 1 rI 4 I J Y pOt6t!.�i�0. Ali O p ACTIVE ASH BASIN PRIMARY CELL ASH A STORAGE �y� r. Vol a i r ACTIVE ASH BASItd OLD PRIMARY AGTi+JE CELL ASH BASIN SECONDARY e NDa 0 500 1 MO r Feet _ Nji EV!^. �atl'1.1 I IICj ..,F"I fJCll if Figure 77. "Existing" Scenario 1 - 2115 Predicted Antimony (lag/L) in the Shallow Groundwater Zone Figure 78. "Existing" Scenario 1 - 2115 Predicted Antimony (Ng/L) in the Deep Groundwater Zone Figure 79. "Existing" Scenario 1 - 2115 Predicted Antimony (pg/L) in the Bedrock Groundwater Zone Figure 80. "Cap -In -Place" Scenario 2 - 2115 Predicted Antimony (lag/L) in the Shallow Groundwater Zone Figure 81. "Cap -In -Place" Scenario 2 - 2115 Predicted Antimony (pg/L) in the Deep Groundwater Zone Figure 82. "Cap -In -Place" Scenario 2 - 2115 Predicted Antimony (pg/L) in the Bedrock Groundwater Zone Figure 83. "Excavate" Scenario 3 - 2115 Predicted Antimony (Ng/L) in the Shallow Groundwater Zone Figure 84. "Excavate" Scenario 3 - 2115 Predicted Antimony (Ng/L) in the Deep Groundwater Zone Figure 85. "Excavate" Scenario 3 - 2115 Predicted Antimony (Pg/L) in the Bedrock Groundwater Zone 700 350 �! 170 80 40 20 10 f ACIIV € A S}tl , ^alh7 ACT1V€ GLf] �'Rt�,1ARY ASH BASIN fE"tL. ;ECU Hry ��v Cf;L � i M M.A N R"'i Ma 0 500 1,000 sue► Feet I .:► _ � � Ge'Raapp3ng. _r ri •' � r ni .y ., Figure 86. Initial (2015) Boron Concentrations (Ng/L) in the Shallow Groundwater Zone Figure 87. Initial (2015) Boron Concentrations (pg/L) in the Deep Groundwater Zone Figure 88. Initial (2015) Boron Concentrations (lag/L) in the Bedrock Groundwater Zone Figure 89. "Existing" Scenario 1 - 2115 Predicted Boron (pg/L) in the Shallow Groundwater Zone Figure 90. "Existing" Scenario 1 - 2115 Predicted Boron (Ng/L) in the Deep Groundwater Zone Figure 91. "Existing" Scenario 1 - 2115 Predicted Boron (pg/L) in the Bedrock Groundwater Zone Figure 92. "Cap -In -Place" Scenario 2 - 2115 Predicted Boron (pg/L) in the Shallow Groundwater Zone Figure 93. "Cap -In -Place" Scenario 2 - 2115 Predicted Boron (pg/L) in the Shallow Groundwater Zone Figure 94. "Cap -In -Place" Scenario 2 - 2115 Predicted Boron (pg/L) in the Bedrock Groundwater Zone Figure 95. "Excavate" Scenario 3 - 2115 Predicted Boron (jig/L) in the Shallow Groundwater Zone Figure 96. "Excavate" Scenario 3 - 2115 Predicted Boron (Ng/L) in the Deep Groundwater Zone Figure 97. "Excavate" Scenario 3 - 2115 Predicted Boron (Ng/L) in the Bedrock Groundwater Zone Figure 98. Initial (2015) Chromium Concentrations (Ng/L) in the Shallow Groundwater Zone Figure 99. Initial (2015) Chromium Concentrations (pg/L) in the Deep Groundwater Zone Figure 100. Initial (2015) Chromium Concentrations (Ng/L) in the Bedrock Groundwater Zone Figure 101. "Existing" Scenario 1 - 2115 Predicted Chromium (Ng/L) in the Shallow Groundwater Zone Figure 102. "Existing" Scenario 1 - 2115 Predicted Chromium (Ng/L) in the Deep Groundwater Zone Figure 103. "Existing" Scenario 1 - 2115 Predicted Chromium (pg/L) in the Bedrock Groundwater Zone Figure 104. "Cap -In -Place" Scenario 2 - 2115 Predicted Chromium (lag/L) in the Shallow Groundwater Zone Figure 105. "Cap -In -Place" Scenario 2 - 2115 Predicted Chromium (pg/L) in the Deep Groundwater Zone Figure 106. "Cap -In -Place" Scenario 2 - 2115 Predicted Chromium (pg/L) in the Bedrock Groundwater Zone 4000 2600 - 830 275 50 r I 30 10 A E y ASH CA& GLp: RIMA t AC E _ 'ELT� ASH BPiSIN U N-�' y SEC`OH'i �� CUT t 31 A-" 01 ACTIVE .yl ASH BASIN r PRIMARY CELL ASH STORAGE r • � 1 Ti - MODEL BIX1ND,4 Y - 0 500 1.000 Feet S YTce'Es l. Getimappfn�, »., x..'s.:.► .r:r ,I�uN,,lU�ar�nI�,�Di, Figure 107. "Excavate" Scenario 3 - 2115 Predicted Chromium (Ng/L) in the Shallow Groundwater Zone Figure 108. "Excavate" Scenario 3 - 2115 Predicted Chromium (pg/L) in the Deep Groundwater Zone Figure 109. "Excavate" Scenario 3 - 2115 Predicted Chromium (Ng/L) in the Bedrock Groundwater Zone Figure 110. Initial (2015) Cobalt Concentrations (Ng/L) in the Shallow Groundwater Zone Figure 111. Initial (2015) Cobalt Concentrations (pg/L) in the Deep Groundwater Zone Figure 112. Initial (2015) Cobalt Concentrations (pg/L) in the Bedrock Groundwater Zone Figure 113. "Existing" Scenario 1 - 2115 Predicted Cobalt (Ng/L) in the Shallow Groundwater Zone Figure 114. "Existing" Scenario 1 - 2115 Predicted Cobalt (pg/L) in the Deep Groundwater Zone Figure 115. "Existing" Scenario 1 - 2115 Predicted Cobalt (Ng/L) in the Bedrock Groundwater Zone Figure 116. "Cap -In -Place" Scenario 2 - 2115 Predicted Cobalt (pg/L) in the Shallow Groundwater Zone Figure 117. "Cap -In -Place" Scenario 2 - 2115 Predicted Cobalt (pg/L) in the Deep Groundwater Zone Figure 118."Cap-In-Place" Scenario 2 - 2115 Predicted Cobalt (lag/L) in the Bedrock Groundwater Zone Figure 119. "Excavate" Scenario 3 - 2115 Predicted Cobalt (pg/L) in the Shallow Groundwater Zone W w,v 2{000 12000 Figure 120. "Excavate" Scenario 3 - 2115 Predicted Cobalt (Ng/L) in the Deep Groundwater Zone Figure 121. "Excavate" Scenario 3 - 2115 Predicted Cobalt (Ng/L) in the Bedrock Groundwater Zone Figure 122. Initial (2015) Hexavalent Chromium Concentrations (Ng/L) in the Shallow Groundwater Zone Figure 123. Initial (2015) Hexavalent Chromium Concentrations (pg/L) in the Deep Groundwater Zone Figure 124. Initial (2015) Hexavalent Chromium Concentrations (lag/L) in the Bedrock Groundwater Zone Figure 125. "Existing" Scenario 1 - 2115 Predicted Hexavalent Chromium (Ng/L) in the Shallow Groundwater Zone Figure 126. "Existing" Scenario 1 - 2115 Predicted Hexavalent Chromium (Ng/L) in the Deep Groundwater Zone Figure 127. "Existing" Scenario 1 - 2115 Predicted Hexavalent Chromium (Ng/L) in the Bedrock Groundwater Zone Figure 128. "Cap -In -Place" Scenario 2 - 2115 Predicted Hexavalent Chromium (Ng/L) in the Shallow Groundwater Zoned Figure 129. "Cap -In -Place" Scenario 2 - 2115 Predicted Hexavalent Chromium (pg/L) in the Deep Groundwater Zone Figure 130. "Cap -In -Place" Scenario 2 - 2115 Predicted Hexavalent Chromium (Ng/L) in the Bedrock Groundwater Zone Figure 131. "Excavate" Scenario 3 - 2115 Predicted Hexavalent Chromium (Ng/L) in the Shallow Groundwater Zone Figure 132. "Excavate" Scenario 3 - 2115 Predicted Hexavalent Chromium (pg/L) in the Deep Groundwater Zone Figure 133. "Excavate" Scenario 3 - 2115 Predicted Hexavalent Chromium (pg/L) in the Bedrock Groundwater Zone Figure 134. Initial (2015) Sulfate Concentrations (lag/L) in the Shallow Groundwater Zone Figure 135. Initial (2015) Sulfate Concentrations (lag/L) in the Deep Groundwater Zone Figure 136. Initial (2015) Sulfate Concentrations (pg/L) in the Bedrock Groundwater Zone Figure 137. "Existing" Scenario 1 - 2115 Predicted Sulfate (Ng/L) in the Shallow Groundwater Zone Figure 138. "Existing" Scenario 1 - 2115 Predicted Sulfate (pg/L) in the Deep Groundwater Zone Figure 139. "Existing" Scenario 1 - 2115 Predicted Sulfate (Ng/L) in the Bedrock Groundwater Zone Figure 140. "Cap -In -Place" Scenario 2 - 2115 Predicted Sulfate (pg/L) in the Shallow Groundwater Zone Figure 141. "Cap -In -Place" Scenario 2 - 2115 Predicted Sulfate (pg/L) in the Deep Groundwater Zone Figure 142. "Cap -In -Place" Scenario 2 - 2115 Predicted Sulfate (Ng/L) in the Bedrock Groundwater Zone Figure 143. "Excavate" Scenario 3 - 2115 Predicted Sulfate (Ng/L) in the Shallow Groundwater Zone Figure 144. "Excavate" Scenario 3 - 2115 Predicted Sulfate (fag/L) in the Deep Groundwater Zone YAV]YCVNRNER f 250000 Jp 100000 .�. —i 140000 15500 ` 6300 e 2500 1000 J f ACTIVE ASH El N ACTIVE OLD PRIMARY CELrL ASH BASIN SECONDARY CELL 4 ACTIVE w ASH BASIN PRIMARYCELL ASH STORAGE' t s n. t w i ljlN . 3 ✓• S MODEL'BIXJNDA RY 0 500 1,000 1 s Feet �t 'rce Es 1 r .r E Getmappmg. •r •. N I!3 Figure 145. "Excavate" Scenario 3 - 2115 Predicted Sulfate (Ng/L) in the Bedrock Groundwater Zone 13Q0C` 4000 i3000 300 rMik 300.3 HIAIASH`BAS1N OL6 PRIMAfi ASH BASIN .LL SECONDRv RCELL 40 CTIVE Sii 9ASIN ASH 1 STORAGE 44, R' MODEL'8 UN0i4R 0 500 1,000 ^.� 10000101::= Feet S ce Fs . i A etimapping. r ri Figure 146. Initial (2015) Vanadium Concentrations (Ng/L) in the Shallow Groundwater Zone Figure 147. Initial (2015) Vanadium Concentrations (lag/L) in the Deep Groundwater Zone Figure 148. Initial (2015) Vanadium Concentrations (Ng/L) in the Bedrock Groundwater Zone Figure 149. "Existing" Scenario 1 - 2115 Predicted Vanadium (Ng/L) in the Shallow Groundwater Zone Figure 150. "Existing" Scenario 1 - 2115 Predicted Vanadium (Ng/L) in the Deep Groundwater Zone Figure 151. "Existing" Scenario 1 - 2115 Predicted Vanadium (Ng/L) in the Bedrock Groundwater Zone Figure 152. "Cap -In -Place" Scenario 2 - 2115 Predicted Vanadium (pg/L) in the Shallow Groundwater Zone Figure 153. "Cap -In -Place" Scenario 2 - 2115 Predicted Vanadium (pg/L) in the Deep Groundwater Zone Figure 154. "Cap -In -Place" Scenario 2 - 2115 Predicted Vanadium (pg/L) in the Bedrock Groundwater Zone Figure 155. "Excavate" Scenario 3 - 2115 Predicted Vanadium (Ng/L) in the Shallow Groundwater Zone Figure 156. "Excavate" Scenario 3 - 2115 Predicted Vanadium (pg/L) in the Deep Groundwater Zone Figure 157. "Excavate" Scenario 3 - 2115 Predicted Vanadium (Ng/L) in the Bedrock Groundwater Zone